Oregon please.

I don't believe Oregon reports result by precinct. Last I checked Oregon votes by mail in presidential elections.

By mail? In 2012? That's surprising.

Voting by mail is increasingly common nationwide, and is done by the majority of voters in the West.  Oregon and Washington operate entirely by mail.

Once again Alcon provides a comprehensive perspective...

Honestly, I would love to have some of the precinct maps of 2012 for the PacNW like Alcon provided in '08, however it does take quite a bit of effort to create considering many counties require purchasing the data directly from the county and there are few with the time, money, and bandwidth to compile such maps.

However there is always the hope that some young entrepreneur with time and money on their hands could create could create such a map for both Washington and Oregon.

Thanks Alcon for the '08 NW precinct maps.... and wish you the best with your current academic pursuits!

I didn't realize that Houston's downtown voted GOP. Why is that? Also what is the area west of Rice/Downtown like? It seems quite Republican, and I know it's Houston, but what makes this urban area Republican?

Actually a broad explanation of the trends would be great!

Tomball and Cypress are fundie exurbs with lots of minivan-driving True Believers.

Not all of us out in the Tomball area are fundies, and although minivans outnumber hybrids, there are many more pickups than either.

There is an extremely high proportion of Anglos compared to much of Harris County, and although it doesn't appear to be that upper middle-class compared to many neighborhoods a short distance down the SH-249 or SH-290, you have a large number of middle-class younger married couples with kids wanting to be in one or another of the higher performing school districts, willing to pay a bit more for their housing.

The "White Flight havens" on Houston's periphery have always creeped me out. I tend to think if you want to have 90%+ of your neighbors be non-Hispanic whites, you need to find somewhere other than Houston to live (Utah or Minnesota, perhaps). I'm occasionally in Cypress visiting family friends who are a Santorum-Palin GOP's wet dream: wife never attended college, they go to an evangelical church twice a week, husband collects bumper stickers that are the Right's equivalent of snark ("Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot"). And the cookie cutter houses around the cul de sac are full of cookie cutter neighbors; an F-150 and an Expedition in every driveway (preferably with a Browning deer or Semper Fi sticker) and Fox News on every plasma TV.

We moved out from Oregon after an 8 month project assignment in the Bay Area trying to find a neighborhood in NW Harris county close to work to avoid massive commute times and traffic jams.

Although the subdivisions have gone wild in the past 10+ years in the area not everywhere is totally cookie-cutter (Those were the ones we crossed off the list), there is a reason to live in an area that is relatively inexpensive with reasonable commute times to work... not that everyone in this neck of the woods has the same priorities.

We're still newbies to the area, but initial impression seems that a mixture of reasons, including reasonably good school districts, perception of lower burglary rates, a desire to feel closer to the lakes/ quaint small towns, and relatively reasonable housing values for first time home buyers, and the better job market in the North/NW regions of the county, play a major factor in the massive growth of some of these regions of the county.

It does feel a bit odd sometimes driving the Prius with West Coast tags, but like the guy at the tire joint in Tomball told us the other day "You know that they now have hybrid pickups"....

I didn't realize that Houston's downtown voted GOP. Why is that? Also what is the area west of Rice/Downtown like? It seems quite Republican, and I know it's Houston, but what makes this urban area Republican?

Actually a broad explanation of the trends would be great!

Tomball and Cypress are fundie exurbs with lots of minivan-driving True Believers.

Not all of us out in the Tomball area are fundies, and although minivans outnumber hybrids, there are many more pickups than either.

There is an extremely high proportion of Anglos compared to much of Harris County, and although it doesn't appear to be that upper middle-class compared to many neighborhoods a short distance down the SH-249 or SH-290, you have a large number of middle-class younger married couples with kids wanting to be in one or another of the higher performing school districts, willing to pay a bit more for their housing.

Oregon please.

I don't believe Oregon reports result by precinct. Last I checked Oregon votes by mail in presidential elections.

Although there is universal vote by mail, Oregon does report results by precinct (although there are quite fewer than there used to be).

Getting the precinct results is trickier, as not all counties report online, and it requires extra effort and/or funding to get a detailed breakdown.

County election results are already being discussed in various other threads at a macro level... I would imagine once county election officials start releasing official precinct returns (which personally  find to be a bit more interesting and informative) that we will see some of our experts on these subject post some numbers and maps.

For many young voters the term liberal is increasingly associated with positions on cultural issues (God, gays, and weed) rather than on economic policies.

Also, as the younger generation has experienced the greatest sacrifices during the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, increasingly "conservative" is also identified as an ideology associated with older voters who appear increasingly out of touch with the changing social morays and demographics of America in the 2010s.

Granted this increase is also a factor of greater turnout amongst Dems in 2012, as well as some moderate Dems willing to identify with a "liberal" label on economic issues in the Midwest.

"frontrunner"

Looks so at this point... a typical battle between a socially conservative Republican that can play to the base in Iowa versus a more moderate Republican that can play to indies in NH (and in the GE) and once again a two person race moving into SC, NV and beyond...

I'm surprised that Pawlenty hasn't really polled in NH yet, but I guess outside the upper midwest, the pundits, and political geeks like us he doesn't have the type of name recognition to yet be considered a contender.

No, but I've been to his province.

Uhh, yeah the infamous PA-13

I took SEPTA through it many times and have driven through it to get to a convention in King of Prussia. It's funny, I've been to PA-1 (Independence Hall), PA-2 (U Penn), PA-8 (Warminster H.S., New Hope), PA-15 (Lehigh U.), PA-7 (King of Prussia, Swarthmore), and even just barely PA-6 (focus groups in Bala Cynwyd), but PA-13 is the only Philly district I've only driven or ridden through.

Yes, I have been to Cambridge and much of Boston before.

OR-4.

MA-8

According to that map, Coos voted 'no' with only 50.1%. The shadings can be misleading with only two options, compared to candidates where close races usually result in the winner getting below 50%, due to third party voting.

Anyhow, the result and map looks very similar to president with Coos and Deschutes voting McCain/No and Columbia and Marion voting Obama/yes, all by somewhat close margins.

I'm surprised as Coos voting no, although narrowly, while at the same time Marion County swings against despite having backed Obama with one of the largest Latino populations in the state.

[There are a lot of interior West counties that responded poorly to the Clinton era's environmental and gun policies, an animosity that went on to afflict Gore.]

Don't North Dakota & Montana (and Wyoming, Idaho too I guess) have an extremely strong anti-incumbent sentiment? I know Montana went for Clinton in '92 but swung back to Dole in '96.

It's often said.  How true this is, is unclear.  There are a lot of interior West counties that responded poorly to the Clinton era's environmental and gun policies, an animosity that went on to afflict Gore.  The result:  a perceived anti-incumbent bias since 1992.  I do think this is the sort of area where Obama will have potential difficulties the second time, if he trips any wires (guns, the environment, a few others)

I wouldn't say that North Dakota is more progressive than South Dakota.  North Dakota I'd say has proportionately more moderates.  South Dakota's Democrats are actually probably liberaler.

I found his ND performance rather underwhelming.

anyway, weird states.

I doubt we'll see a return to the "range and timber wars" of the '90s which more so than gun control the issue that tilted many natural resource counties in the West, including significant parts of Oregon, Washington, and California, as well as the interior West.

If anything, Obama's alternative energy ventures, in particular investment in an alternative energy infrastructure that will help bring wind power from states like Montana and North Dakota to larger population centers, will prove a popular environmental initiative in those regions. This is dramatically different from the perception on environmental issues Clinton & Gore had in this part of the country.

There are many other issues that will effect voter behavior in the Dakotas in 2012, like everywhere else economic issues and the recovery will be prominent themes, but I agree with Alcon that "anti-incumbent bias" doesn't sufficiently explain voting habits in '96 and 2000.

Yes, multiple times.

OR-4

While that specific interchange was amusing, the rest of what Hayworth was saying was even more amusing. George Soros and Chuck Schumer are the ones responsible for the recession?

Let's not turn this into a discussion about the other discussions on the show.

This was the same discussion, just a different time-stamp. Although, when I watched the show earlier initially I thought Chris was dominating JD when JD was going off about Soros & Schumer.

However, you are absolutely correct in that JD was one of the first people I have seen that actually got Chris to shut up for a brief period, which is quite entertaining in itself.

For any of you that didn't watch the exchange who want to check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRKYGP9ftlU

In that there wasn't a slight swing towards Bush between 2000 and 2004 unlike the rest of California?

No, just in that, only looking over the percentages without an eye to turnout, you would completely overlook the fact that Watsonville is at all different from the white commuterland parts. (In 2000, the lower Nader tally betrays that something is up)

What's interesting is that Watsonville voter registration is 73-25% Democratic, with an extremely low number of independents compared to most of the rest of California. This might account for there being an almost infinitesimal shift in Republican support between 2000 and 2004.

I would expect more volatility in Capitola, since it is to all extents a suburban part of Santa Cruz with a higher proportion of independents. Interestingly it has a significantly cheaper cost of rent than in Santa Cruz, so is more of a bedroom community with less of a college population than the city itself. Although there is a community college right near it, most of the overwhelmingly Democratic UCSC students live within Santa Cruz proper or on campus way over in West Santa Cruz.

It should be pointed out that Watsonville is anything but affluent. It's also heavily Mexican, with the attendant low turnout.

2000 results for comparison... supervisor districts (not sure if they were redrawn... certainly not extensively redrawn, though)
1 Gore 60.5 Bush 29.0 Nader 9.3
2 Gore 59.6 Bush 32.4 Nader 7.2
3 Gore 66.7 Nader 16.6 Bush 16.3
4 Gore 66.4 Bush 29.7 Nader 3.5
5 Gore 57.1 Bush 31.8 Nader 9.8

cities
Santa Cruz Gore 66.5 Bush 16.4 Nader 16.3
Capitola Gore 63.3 Bush 27.5 Nader 8.5
Watsonville Gore 70.5 Bush 26.1 Nader 3.0
Scotts Valley Gore 49.9 Bush 44.0 Nader 5.2

No swing in Watsonville (well, no change to Bush's percentage.)

Nice observation on Watsonville...

In many respects it is more similar to neighboring parts of Monterey County, in that it is an area with an active agricultural sector. The town itself is dominated by freeze-dry plants with a stable unionized workforce. The UFW is still active in the area, and I remember seeing "Si se puede" signs all over the area in the late '90s during an ongoing labor dispute.

Interesting.

Hilarious that it doesn't show up at all in the 2004 results, though.

In that there wasn't a slight swing towards Bush between 2000 and 2004 unlike the rest of California?

The labor struggles of the predominately Mexican cannery workers in this city go back decades, and are not particularly wedded to either the local Democratic Party or the Anglo dominated unions that represent them. More recently there have been attempts by the UFW to organize strawberry field workers (when I was last in the area in the late '90s).

Several articles that give background on the labor movement in Watsonville:

http://www.ejumpcut.org/archive/onlinessays/JC35folder/WatsonvilleStrike.html

http://migration.ucdavis.edu/rmn/more.php?id=193_0_3_0


It would be interesting to see if there were electoral swings between 1992 and 2000, since this would be the period when the city was hit hard by relocation of some freeze-dry operations to Mexico, and also growing labor strife in the neighboring strawberry fields. Since much of the agricultural workforce lives within the city of Watsonville because of zoning restrictions favoring farmland in this area, this might be where you would notice an impact.

I'm not sure to what extent this plays out in national elections, but the state senator is a Republican Mexican-American strawberry farmer from the Watsonville area, so there might be a more localized, rather than national, electoral impact.

Basically true, although the shift towards being a Democratic state at the Presidential level has some major causes other than just the end of Republicans nominating Presidential candidates from the state.

My first post after nine months or so of lurking:

Eastern Oregon voters vote like the rag-tag bunch of libertarian Democrats, small-town Democrats, DIROs and displaced left-wingers they aer.  Obama wins, although not overwhelmingly, and Clinton does well in some counties.  The DIRO, anti-Clinton, racist, spite and rural populist votes effectively cancel each other out and Obama carries the district easily on the shoulders of Bend, Hood River and a few other areas of strong performance, probably in the northeast.

I expect OR-2 to go for Clinton by 55-45, mainly because of Jackson / Josephine counties are former timber producing areas with high numbers of retirees where there are still positive memories of Bill Clinton's compromise on logging in the early '90s. Yes Bend (Deschutes Co.) can be expected to go for Obama by a decent margin, yet how many Republicans changed their registration in this area to vote in the Democratic primary? Hood river is too small to be especially significant, although Obama may be able to do well in La Grande (Union Co.) home to  the largest college in Eastern Oregon, and he is in Pendleton tonight, although I am not sure how well his message will play in that area.

One factor to consider is the large number of latinos in areas like Harney and Malheur counties, who account for a significant percentage of the Democratic vote in overwhelmingly Republican counties. This is also true for many of these other counties under discussion. I suspect Obama will do better with the Latino vote in Western Oregon (Marion and Washington counties spring to mind) than in these areas East of the cascades.

It should be pointed out that Watsonville is anything but affluent. It's also heavily Mexican, with the attendant low turnout.

2000 results for comparison... supervisor districts (not sure if they were redrawn... certainly not extensively redrawn, though)
1 Gore 60.5 Bush 29.0 Nader 9.3
2 Gore 59.6 Bush 32.4 Nader 7.2
3 Gore 66.7 Nader 16.6 Bush 16.3
4 Gore 66.4 Bush 29.7 Nader 3.5
5 Gore 57.1 Bush 31.8 Nader 9.8

cities
Santa Cruz Gore 66.5 Bush 16.4 Nader 16.3
Capitola Gore 63.3 Bush 27.5 Nader 8.5
Watsonville Gore 70.5 Bush 26.1 Nader 3.0
Scotts Valley Gore 49.9 Bush 44.0 Nader 5.2

No swing in Watsonville (well, no change to Bush's percentage.)

Nice observation on Watsonville...

In many respects it is more similar to neighboring parts of Monterey County, in that it is an area with an active agricultural sector. The town itself is dominated by freeze-dry plants with a stable unionized workforce. The UFW is still active in the area, and I remember seeing "Si se puede" signs all over the area in the late '90s during an ongoing labor dispute.

Scotts Valley does not surprise me, as this is the main commuter route "over the hill" to San Jose with many expensive homes in what is already one of the most expensive real estate markets in the US.

This is what passes as a moderate in the GOP nowadays?

No one, not even Steele himself, calls the man a moderate. He just happened to be the most moderate candidate for the chairmanship.

Congrats to the Reps for choosing the most moderate option available for Chairman. Winning an election as a Republican in a fairly liberal state like Maryland is no easy feat, and if the Reps want to successfully re-brand the party and recreate the "Big Tent" it will be necessary to bring back moderate fiscally conservative suburban voters and some socially liberal voters by being willing to challenge party orthodoxy on some key issues.

Ultimately the RNC chairmanship is a primarily symbolic position, but without holding the positions of POTUS, Senate Majority Leader, and House Majority leader, for the time being Steele will be the most visible face of the party to the broader public. Re-branding the party will however take more than just a strong symbolic figure of the face of the new party, and ultimately require changes on some key policy positions as well as gaining approval from the base for a variety of opinions on certain social issues depending on local conditions.

Oops, I meant Douglas County, Nebraska, not Kansas.

Includes a fair-sized city (big for that part of the world), targetted by Obama's campaign.

Not to mention Obama advertising dollars in Western Iowa also reaching Omaha voters.

Having a Democrat from the Midwest probably didn't hurt at all either....

[Portland metro]

Portland metro (Counties of Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington)





Pretty map.

Nice maps for sure... Thanks Alcon!

What is most visually apparent is how little support the Reps currently have within the metro area...  Looking at where population densities are located, there are few pockets of Republican support left. Wilsonville flipped Dem '08, and the largest municipality I could find in Clackamas that backed McCain was Damascus (that splotch of blue in the North-Central area that is relatively small ex-urban, and Canby, which is arguable how much a part of Metro it is.

Washington county has few precinct wins of large population centers.... McCain's largest precinct he won was the rural NW of the county with 1800 voters by a margin of 52-44. The largest urban precinct (one of only two metro counties in Washington County that went Rep) he won was in Tualatin by only 12 votes, and one in Tigard by 1 vote!

Not too sure about that splotch of red in the SW corner of Washington Co.... community is supposedly "Cherry Grove" where a Swedish immigrant founded a lumber mill, although the only real period the industry prospered here was for a few decades after the Tillamook forest fire. Although fruit orchards have also been referenced, and this would be an area with a decent Latino population.

I count only three precincts in Multnomah that McCain won, the only one of decent population being #5604, which is essentially on the SE edge of Gresham and halfway to Boring, Oregon.

Republicans cannot expect to win Oregon at the national level with such an atrocious performance in all of Metro Portland...

If you were to contrast this with a precinct map versus Smith, it would be a very different color scheme, even in key suburban cities indeed! And remember of course that Smith still lost by almost 4 points...

FF. He is one of the posters who makes the Atlas such a unique place.

FF...he is himself, and that takes guts.

Very true.

^^^^^^^^^^

Thanks!

I actually did some fiddling the other day with municipal results.  Oregon is awful with split districts and municipalities.  Washington County, refreshingly, isn't.  So I got these results for the Portland municipal area (* indicates some splitting).  Obama won every municipality.

Beaverton: 65-32 Obama (57-42)
Durham: 62-37 Obama (53-46)
Fairview: 60-38 Obama (56-43)
Gladstone: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Gresham: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Happy Valley: 50-49 Obama (41-58)
Hillsboro: 59-38 Obama (50-48)
Johnson City: 58-37 Obama (52-45)
King City: 57-41 Obama (54-45)
Lake Oswego: 63-35 Obama (56-43)
Maywood Park: 66-31 Obama (63-36)
Milwaukie: 65-32 Obama (61-38)
Oregon City: 54-43 Obama (49-50)
Portland: 81-17 Obama (76-23)
Rivergrove*: 66-33 Obama (59-40)
Sherwood: 51-47 Obama (41-58)
Tigard: 60-38 Obama (53-46)
Troutdale*: 55-42 Obama (50-49)
Tualatin: 57-41 Obama (48-51)
West Linn: 59-39 Obama (52-47)
Wilsonville: 52-46 Obama (45-54)
Wood Village: 62-34 Obama (55-44)

I've included results (excluding Washington County, which I have too little data for) from 2004 in parentheses.  Portland is a corrected number from 80-17 -- apparently the Portland Golf Club precinct in Washington County isn't in Portland.

But, anyway, every city in the metro Portland area voted Obama.

As for the rest...I'm forwarding the check-writing request off tonight.  So far I have: Benton, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Umatilla and Washington.  I should be able to add a bunch more to that list shortly.

Anything I can provide in the meantime? 

Edit: Found Washington County for '04.

OK--- I have all of the county returns above except: Harney, Hood River, Klamath, Linn, and Umatilla.

The only ones on that list that you do not have listed are Douglas and Yamhill Counties, which I have a copy of and have converted to Excel.

City results not listed:

Canby (Exurban Portland): 46-52 McCain
Clackamas Unincorporated (Urban/Suburban) 59-38 Obama
Washington Co Unincorporated (Urban/suburban) 62-35 Obama
Newburg (Exburban Portland- Yamhill County) 46-51 McCain

I have city results for other municipalities on the counties that we both have results for....

Jack is Back!

"24" is pure fiction, and I think the vast majority of Americans are smart enough to realize that this show is not reality. It is entertainment pure and simple, something which Fox does quite well, although arguably they do tend to frequently stoop to the lowest common denominator.

I agree that the series has tended in recent series to recycle some plot devices, but it is still pretty high quality in production standards considering much of the broadcast competition available.

No, because as a non-Christian I'd then have to go straight to Hell.

No, but then again if there were a situation where Rob was getting attacked on the street and I stepped in to stop the violence and accidentally got killed that might be another matter.

Obviously I would step in to protect the lives of my family members and close friends. Otherwise it would be more a case of accidentally dying while intervening to stop injury to another.

Alcon,

Any update on the Oregon precinct results project yet? 

I have an incomplete set and am still missing the "pay counties"....

If you have additional data sets to share that would be most appreciated.   


I hope everything is going well with your school / career search!

I'll be around, but might turn into a sporadic poster.

This all depends on where my life takes me over the next few years in terms of family and career.
Considering the wealth of wisdom on this board even if I go through a one year hiatus, I can almost guarantee I'll be logging on during the 2012 primaries to debate performance in various states and counties, and will probably get even more tuned in once we get close to the 2012 General.

I wouldn't want to be left out from election and polling analysis from some of our resident experts, including of course the most prolific "numbers posters" like Alcon, Sam, & Lunar.

There are many others whom I would like to list by name who hopefully will still be around in 2012, but ya' know life takes odd turns and s**t happens.