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December 19, 2014, 08:47:35 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The 2016 presidential field on Cuba on: December 18, 2014, 05:05:00 pm
Obama promised this in 2008. Finally, he is delivering on his promise.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Obama coalition in 2016 on: December 16, 2014, 08:09:07 pm
Neither blacks nor kids will turn out.

Obama coalition? What coalition? Obama what?

3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 : Walker vs Hillary on: December 16, 2014, 02:13:26 pm
If it's a competitive race, that's probably what the map would look like:


Clinton (D) - 260 EV
Walker (R) - 175 EV

Walker can only afford to lose either Iowa or Colorado, he must win his home state of Wisconsin and all the other swing states.


This is the objective map. All other maps are biased one way or another. There are two possible victories for Walker:

1) Run the table
2) Win all but Iowa (but I think he is winning Iowa if he wins Colorado)

A third, sort of victory, a tie really, would be winning all but Colorado.

In this setup, Florida is the tipping point state.

Popular vote would probably be 1-2% in Walker's favor.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb is basically in on: December 16, 2014, 02:03:19 pm
The United States is not India.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary or Warren... on: December 15, 2014, 09:12:39 pm
Is Hillary the Dems' Mitt Romney?


I think she is.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: if you could travel back in time to this point two years ago on: December 15, 2014, 08:58:22 pm
Use that same time machine to travel back to 2009 and tell the whole bunch (not just Landrieu and Pryor) not to vote for Obamacare.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary or Warren... on: December 15, 2014, 04:49:15 pm
Warren

(just kidding, Hillary of course)


Traitor!

Edit: Didn't see the small print.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz will win the Republican primary- My prediction on: December 15, 2014, 04:35:59 am
Hold up, before we get to electing him, is he even eligible to be President? Let us not forget the clause of the Constitution calling for the president to be a natural born citizen. Cruz was born in Canada...

I would love to see how he explains that and how conservatives will argue it's okay (even though Obama was born "somewhere else" supposedly, it's okay Cruz was...)

It's not OK and he is not a natural born citizen. His run is a joke.


9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Virginia be more Democratic than Pennsylvania? on: December 14, 2014, 08:57:11 pm
The answer is yes. Virginia is unattainable for the Republicans, while Pennsylvania is presumably unattainable for the Republicans.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state seems to be gone for Republicans? on: December 14, 2014, 08:46:56 pm
If I can select only one, then New Hampshire.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NC-PrimR: Carson leads at 19%, Hillary at 52% PrimD on: December 11, 2014, 09:34:28 pm
I can see Carson winning up to 20% of the black vote in NC- many blacks are Christian conservatives who vote Democratic only because of the perceived racism of the GOP (see the results of the 2008 referendum on gay marriage, for instance)...

Can he possibly win 30% of blacks?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Hillary tied with, slightly up on Rs, Biden/Warren down on: December 11, 2014, 09:23:48 pm
It's actually Clinton 46, Huckabee 44.

It doesn't matter. With favorability rating of 41/51, she is not going to win North Carolina against any credible opposition.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Selzer national poll: Clinton leads GOP field by 6-13 points on: December 08, 2014, 08:02:48 pm
Name recognition, guys!

I'd focus more on the relative approvals, which do suggest Clinton has a real but not insurmountable advantage over that GOP field.

I agree. Her favorabilities are higher than I expected.
We'll see if that holds when the campaign starts and she starts going negative on her opponent for lack of meaningful ideas.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Selzer national poll: Clinton leads GOP field by 6-13 points on: December 08, 2014, 07:55:49 pm
Name recognition, guys!
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican has the best leadership qualities? on: December 08, 2014, 05:40:44 am
Christie, followed by Walker, then Kasich.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Hypothetical: DSCC invests in runoff, Keystone XL passes Senate and is vetoed on: December 07, 2014, 03:07:37 am
What if she didn't vote for Obamacare and listened to her constituents might be a better question to ask.

She would have won, because there would be no way to paint her as Obama Democrat.

The same applies to Hagan.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich hugs the center on Common Core / immigration / Medicaid expansion on: December 06, 2014, 06:32:03 pm
Walker is strongly pro-immigration reform. It is both a moral and economic issue.

Any pro-free market Republican (supported by the Chamber of Commerce) will be pro-immigration reform.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The first Clinton 2016 song on: December 04, 2014, 07:33:42 pm
Disgusting!
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How realistic is this map? on: December 03, 2014, 04:58:11 pm
I think the next election will be very much like 2000, including Florida results.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How realistic is this map? on: December 03, 2014, 04:47:21 pm
The map is realistic (Clinton v. Walker) and the election is going to be decided in Florida.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % of the black Republican vote would Cain or Carson win in the primaries? on: December 03, 2014, 04:53:07 am
A more interesting question would be: What percentage of the black vote would Carson win in the general election?
I suspect that the answer to that question would be - above 30%.

Are you crazy ?

Carson would not get more than the average White Republican got.

Tim Scott for example did not get more than 10% in SC this year.

It is well known that a lot of black Republicans voted for Obama. I don't know the percentage, but I think it's close to 30%.
Why wouldn't the opposite be true?


22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % of the black Republican vote would Cain or Carson win in the primaries? on: December 03, 2014, 04:30:46 am
A more interesting question would be: What percentage of the black vote would Carson win in the general election?
I suspect that the answer to that question would be - above 30%.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: John Kerry 2016? on: December 02, 2014, 08:37:17 pm
He is a fossil with onset symptoms of Alzheimer’s.

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CNN National: #Hillaryunder70, Romney up 10/Jeb up 3 on: December 02, 2014, 03:52:48 pm
Webb's media blitz following his announcement has surged him up from 0% to 1%. I did the math, at this rate he'll be at 60% by the Iowa caucus.

You mean, right on time.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul is running for re-election. on: December 02, 2014, 01:14:32 pm
There's a small part of me that hopes he doesn't run so he saves himself for 2020.

I think he won't run and will save himself for 2020.
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