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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Things Clinton Democrats don't seem to get on: Today at 11:45:08 am
With the growing influence of BLM and socialists within the party as well as the we are the future many democrats seem to have, I can totally see a British labour party type implosion of the democrats if Hillary loses

It's the other way around. This implosion is already happening and the outcome will be that Hillary loses.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Trump leads in NBC National Poll on: Today at 11:34:21 am
Itís really shocking that this narcissistic fake billionaire who has no clue about politics is even tied.

Yes. Shocking. He should be leading by a lot. But alas, the Dem smear machine and the dishonest media have done their work.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump to hold Reddit AMA during DNC - 7pm EST, July 27 on: July 25, 2016, 04:14:03 pm
Wonderful news!
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: University of DE/Princeton Survey Research Associates (national): Clinton +4 on: July 25, 2016, 04:03:56 pm
Fav/Unfav

Trump: 37/59
Clinton: 43/51
Pence: 40/37
Kaine: 37/31 - rest never heard / did not know

Like they are polling a different electorate, which they are actually doing.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump thanks Russia/China for hacking the US, and helping him on: July 25, 2016, 04:02:20 pm
He was sarcastic. That's Trump's humor, which the Dems don't get, but the people of America do.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of US Presidents Series: James K. Polk through James Buchanan on: July 25, 2016, 04:00:22 pm
All FF except Fillmore.

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would each candidate get in a 100% turnout race? on: July 25, 2016, 03:23:42 pm
Uhhhhh, in a 2-way, it'd be about

Clinton 65%
Trump 35%

That's too much. Wink
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would each candidate get in a 100% turnout race? on: July 25, 2016, 03:11:48 pm
Hillary 55%
Trump 45%
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio-PPP: Trump +3; tied in binary race on: July 25, 2016, 03:08:14 pm
Quote
The tightening of the race has come completely thanks to Trump consolidating his support among Republican voters. Where he had only a 66/15 advantage with them in June, he's now ahead 82/9. Clinton's actually seen some consolidation with her base as well, going from a 76/13 lead with Democrats last time to now 84/11. Independents have remained completely steady- Clinton was up 39/38 with them in June, and she's up 41/40 with them now. Trump's 'bump' is the normal unification of his party base following its convention.

Again, it looks like the RNC was successful in consolidating the Republican base and to a lesser extent the Democratic base.

While obviously this isn't good news for Clinton, this isn't horrendous. Based on this I imagine Hillary is still at least 1-2 points up in Pennsylvania.

No. She is behind in Pennsylvania.

We really need to get more Pennsylvania polls so the red avatars here will finally get a grip.


You aren't making any sense. If there are no polls of Pennsylvania, then how do you know that she is behind. You can't make up polls on your computer or in your head and pass them off as real. That's not how things work.

All of my predictions so far have been based on the state fundamentals and only later corroborated by polls. Pennsylvania demographics are more favorable to Trump than Ohio demographics.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Trump need CO to win the election? on: July 25, 2016, 02:58:45 pm
All TRUMP needs is Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Arizona and North Carolina aren't entirely off the table, even with a FLOHPA trifecta.  In a really, really close race, Trump could win Florida by <0.5% and lose North Carolina by <0.5% as well.  And a large Hispanic mobilization could flip Arizona, even if Trump wins PA.  Furthermore, Trump's war chest could be too depleted to put up a fight outside the main battlegrounds.

So just getting FLOHPA is not enough.  Going after CO and VA puts Clinton on defense and provides possible insurance for unexpected scenarios.

There is no logic in investing outside of OH/PA/FL. Trump is a businessman and he knows this. Investment in defending NC could be justified, but not in AZ, which is safer.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio-PPP: Trump +3; tied in binary race on: July 25, 2016, 02:55:19 pm
Quote
The tightening of the race has come completely thanks to Trump consolidating his support among Republican voters. Where he had only a 66/15 advantage with them in June, he's now ahead 82/9. Clinton's actually seen some consolidation with her base as well, going from a 76/13 lead with Democrats last time to now 84/11. Independents have remained completely steady- Clinton was up 39/38 with them in June, and she's up 41/40 with them now. Trump's 'bump' is the normal unification of his party base following its convention.

Again, it looks like the RNC was successful in consolidating the Republican base and to a lesser extent the Democratic base.

While obviously this isn't good news for Clinton, this isn't horrendous. Based on this I imagine Hillary is still at least 1-2 points up in Pennsylvania.

No. She is behind in Pennsylvania.

We really need to get more Pennsylvania polls so the red avatars here will finally get a grip.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio-PPP: Trump +3; tied in binary race on: July 25, 2016, 02:46:49 pm
Tied in head to head? lol no reason to freak out with this one.

SAY HELLO TO OUR EMPEROR OVERLOAD DONALD JOHN TRUMP Wink

On a serious note, this polls on par with the 2012 race.

No, it doesn't. Obama consistently led all polls.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the Russian DNC hack help Trump? on: July 25, 2016, 02:34:47 pm
If it is verified that Russia truly leaked or helped in the leaking, it will hurt trump in the months to come, more than Hillary.

I doubt it. There had to be information to be leaked, before the hack itself. It's the dirt being leaked that is causing the outrage.

It is now, yes.
But if it is verified that Russia did it, then the link between Putin helping trump will hurt
the Trump /IS Dense ticket later.

Since that can never be verified, it will remain a desperate conspiracy theory that will hurt Hillary even more.

The Russians arenít amateurs, you know.

14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the Russian DNC hack help Trump? on: July 25, 2016, 02:28:13 pm
If it is verified that Russia truly leaked or helped in the leaking, it will hurt trump in the months to come, more than Hillary.

I doubt it. There had to be information to be leaked, before the hack itself. It's the dirt being leaked that is causing the outrage.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AMP-Calypso Poll: Paul Ryan Losing Reelection Bid; Nehlen+7 in WI-01 on: July 25, 2016, 02:25:24 pm
he can still stay the Speaker. He doesn't need to be a representative to be the Speaker.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Things Clinton Democrats don't seem to get on: July 25, 2016, 02:22:11 pm
-- The Democrats are never going to win on racial issues alone because minorities are still a minority of the electorate.

-- The Democrats' base is the working class, and the vast majority of that is working class whites. That has never changed, nor should it ever change, given the positions of the parties.

-- Trump has made a strong red meat appeal to working class whites on immigration and trade. He positions himself as making a business proposition (which he certainly understands): their vote in exchange for promising to look out for their 'interests'.

-- The Democrats have traditionally made this exact same kind of appeal on economic issues, but are letting themselves get outflanked.

-- There are a lot of people out there who aren't thrilled about Trump, but all they're hearing from the Democrats is, "shame on you for being a racist". Human nature suggests this doesn't work.

Sorry, I just can't get on board with blatant lying to the electorate, low tech manufacturing jobs aren't coming back, coal (especially Appalachia coal)  isn't coming back.  Retraining and a safety net is the best one can offer.  If the working white class can't comprehend or accept this, then I guess everyone should just prepare for the consequences.

Including you.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Trump need CO to win the election? on: July 25, 2016, 02:13:32 pm
Without Colorado and Virginina (which I think is also almost gone as a swing state) the GOP is pretty much locked into winning OH/FL/PA as a winning strategy with no other viable route.   

Who needs another viable route?

As I have said many times in the past ten months or so, Colorado is completely irrelevant.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Ending Colorado Ads For Now on: July 25, 2016, 02:07:10 pm
I wonder what their internal polling is saying about NV. For the last five elections NV has actually averaged 2-4% more D than CO.  It is hard to believe that NV has swung so hard to the R side as the few recent public polls indicate.

Nevada had the wild, unruly Sanders delegation which behaved like a bunch of two year olds. Maybe there is more BernieorBust sentiment in NV than CO

Well Hillary actually won NV but lost CO caucus, also in the final meeting more Hillary people showed up in NV, which caused all the rukkus. So not sure the Bernie or Bust movement is stronger in NV.  But team Clinton is still running ads there. I can see it more R than CO by a little bit, but more R than PA (as the public polling indicates)? 

I continue to be convinced that in a close election it will come down to Trump winning the FL/OH/PA trifecta.  Pulling off the FL/OH/IA/NH/NV+ME2 super bank shot seems far fetched.

Absolutely, and more specifically, if Trump is winning PA he is winning OH... so it really boils down to Trump needing FL and PA. If he can get both, he wins. If he loses either, it's Clinton.

Yes, but since he will do better in PA than in FL, it really boils down to Trump needing FL, which is something I have been predicting for close to 14 months now. I even predicted that FL margin will be lower than 1%.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Ending Colorado Ads For Now on: July 25, 2016, 01:59:20 pm
I wonder what their internal polling is saying about NV. For the last five elections NV has actually averaged 2-4% more D than CO.  It is hard to believe that NV has swung so hard to the R side as the few recent public polls indicate.

Nevada had the wild, unruly Sanders delegation which behaved like a bunch of two year olds. Maybe there is more BernieorBust sentiment in NV than CO

Well Hillary actually won NV but lost CO caucus, also in the final meeting more Hillary people showed up in NV, which caused all the rukkus. So not sure the Bernie or Bust movement is stronger in NV.  But team Clinton is still running ads there. I can see it more R than CO by a little bit, but more R than PA (as the public polling indicates)? 

I continue to be convinced that in a close election it will come down to Trump winning the FL/OH/PA trifecta.  Pulling off the FL/OH/IA/NH/NV+ME2 super bank shot seems far fetched.

Welcome aboard. Smiley
Been saying this for close a year now.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the Russian DNC hack help Trump? on: July 25, 2016, 01:55:56 pm
One must wonder what they plan to release week(s) before the election. That shouldn't be ruled out. My money is on them releasing some real dirt sometime in late October. IF there is more damaging material from that hack, it could very well tank this election for Democrats if used right.

It's hard for me to fully express how disappointed I am in Clinton, Obama and the DNC in general:

1. Clinton knew she had huge amounts of baggage and still ran, putting us in this spot. The party never should have bowed to her, given her liabilities as a candidate.

2. Obama knew DWS was a monstrosity and a disaster waiting to happen, and he refused to force her out because he didn't want to deal with the negative press. Now look where we are. He cares so much about his legacy and yet his inept leadership of the party has put even that in danger now. I like Obama on numerous levels, but his stewardship of the Democratic party has been awful and he deserves a lot of blame for keeping Debbie on well past the average tenure of DNC chairs.

3. The DNC should have had better security on their network, and yet again proves that high-risk organizations and the old, technologically-inept leaders are utterly incapable of understanding how enormous the dangers of being hacked are. Further, proper DNC leadership should have shut down these little meddling conversations and kept the party strictly neutral. I don't think anything was rigged like people have whined about, but the emails reveal conversations and ideas that never should have happened.

Thanks Obama!

It's the emails, dear. We know that Hillary is casual with emails.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Ending Colorado Ads For Now on: July 25, 2016, 01:51:31 pm
I wonder what their internal polling is saying about NV. For the last five elections NV has actually averaged 2-4% more D than CO.  It is hard to believe that NV has swung so hard to the R side as the few recent public polls indicate.

It's the poorly educated.
We love the poorly educated.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Things Clinton Democrats don't seem to get on: July 25, 2016, 01:45:41 pm
-- The Democrats are never going to win on racial issues alone because minorities are still a minority of the electorate.

-- The Democrats' base is the working class, and the vast majority of that is working class whites. That has never changed, nor should it ever change, given the positions of the parties.

-- Trump has made a strong red meat appeal to working class whites on immigration and trade. He positions himself as making a business proposition (which he certainly understands): their vote in exchange for promising to look out for their 'interests'.

-- The Democrats have traditionally made this exact same kind of appeal on economic issues, but are letting themselves get outflanked.

-- There are a lot of people out there who aren't thrilled about Trump, but all they're hearing from the Democrats is, "shame on you for being a racist". Human nature suggests this doesn't work.

-Not to mention the fact that Hillary is corrupt and incompetent. She wouldn't even had gotten her party's nomination if a FBI investigation and a nominating process wasn't  totally rigged in her favor.

Furthermore right now, if the GOP had picked anyone but Trump they probably would be winning in
November.

No. The others would be losing in November. Trump alone has a chance due to his unique regional appeal not picked up by polls well.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Ending Colorado Ads For Now on: July 25, 2016, 01:26:18 pm
Pull ads from Nevada, too.

Why? Nevada is far more competitive than Colorado.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie gets booed by hundreds of protesters for several minutes on: July 25, 2016, 01:25:20 pm
Those people should vote Trump. They are national socialists, and do not belong in the Democratic party.

Don't worry. They will. Smiley
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the Russian DNC hack help Trump? on: July 25, 2016, 01:19:54 pm
Yes, at least for now. Does anyone doubt the intentions behind this hack?

I don't know what you are talking about.


Why do you think the emails were released exactly when they were?

To hurt Hillary, of course.

Why do you think there were emails to be released in the first place?


Some people in the DNC clearly wanted Hillary. Who's surprised? The timing of this, as well as the fact that only the DNC was hacked clearly shows an agenda. Russia wants Trump.

Why do we keep getting dirt and more dirt on Hillary? Why isn't there any dirt on Obama?
Could it be that one of them is crooked and the other is not?
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