Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 26, 2015, 03:43:48 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 32
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Guess the next POTUS BESIDES Hillary on: December 31, 2014, 08:46:14 am
Walker.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Guess the next POTUS on: December 31, 2014, 08:44:38 am
Scott Walker.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton doing 33 points better than this point in 2006 on: December 29, 2014, 07:47:28 pm
Likewise everyone remember President Ed Muskie in 1972

No, no! Forget that! That was an exception. How dare you deny that Hillary is inevitable and will win? Apologize to Madam President!

Your blatant obsession with constantly reminding about Hillary's supposed vulnerability and the chance that she may in fact lose is almost as, if not as, annoying as the trolling done by HillaryLandslide.

Hey, I just wanted to point out that polls this far from Election Day are useless and don't tell us anything about the final outcome of the election. Yes, Hillary will run! Yes, she will win the nomination! That's probably right! But, as I mentioned before, there is no need to repeat that every single day. To be honest: All of you Hillslide-, Hillaryslide-, Hilldog-, 50 states-, Republicans-are-toast-no-matter-who-they-nominate-, Inevitable--, Ready For Hillary- guys are also quite annoying.

People keep repeating it because the beltway pundits and some wishful thinkers still think it will be 2008 redux.

I can't say that I think, but I certainly hope it will be 2008 redux.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your opinion of this "reality-check" by Chris Ladd? on: December 28, 2014, 07:16:39 pm
Bottom line: The Blue Wall is real. It has expanded to New Hampshire and Virginia.

This is why Republicans need a nominee who can win a state behind that wall. That state is Wisconsin and the nominee is Walker.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dixie Moves to Dominate GOP Primaries on: December 24, 2014, 12:12:50 pm
The plan behind this is to have only one establishment candidate remaining by Super Tuesday, while the conservative field remains fractured, so that moderate GOP voters could coalesce around that candidate and help him sweep the southern states, thus, practically, securing the nomination.

As part of this plan, we should expect several establishment candidates dropping out after Iowa and New Hampshire, and all but one dropping out after Nevada.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary vs Carson on: December 22, 2014, 09:28:17 pm
Here is my map, which is still a victory for Hillary Clinton:

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary vs Carson on: December 22, 2014, 09:20:39 pm
People here keep underestimating the percentage of black vote Carson would get in the general election.
The whites he may lose will not make a difference. Carson would easily carry all Romney states plus Ohio and Virginia and come close in Maryland and Pennsylvania (maybe win), maybe even in Michigan. However, Florida would be a problem and he may also be uncompetitive in places like Colorado, Nevada and Iowa. The map would look very different than normal election map of Bush/Obama years.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Florida in 2016 on: December 21, 2014, 06:01:07 pm
Republicans need Florida in 2016.

The only thing I can think of that can possibly put Pennsylvania in play is escalation of the War on Coal.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The 2016 presidential field on Cuba on: December 18, 2014, 05:05:00 pm
Obama promised this in 2008. Finally, he is delivering on his promise.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Obama coalition in 2016 on: December 16, 2014, 08:09:07 pm
Neither blacks nor kids will turn out.

Obama coalition? What coalition? Obama what?

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 : Walker vs Hillary on: December 16, 2014, 02:13:26 pm
If it's a competitive race, that's probably what the map would look like:


Clinton (D) - 260 EV
Walker (R) - 175 EV

Walker can only afford to lose either Iowa or Colorado, he must win his home state of Wisconsin and all the other swing states.


This is the objective map. All other maps are biased one way or another. There are two possible victories for Walker:

1) Run the table
2) Win all but Iowa (but I think he is winning Iowa if he wins Colorado)

A third, sort of victory, a tie really, would be winning all but Colorado.

In this setup, Florida is the tipping point state.

Popular vote would probably be 1-2% in Walker's favor.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb is basically in on: December 16, 2014, 02:03:19 pm
The United States is not India.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary or Warren... on: December 15, 2014, 09:12:39 pm
Is Hillary the Dems' Mitt Romney?


I think she is.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: if you could travel back in time to this point two years ago on: December 15, 2014, 08:58:22 pm
Use that same time machine to travel back to 2009 and tell the whole bunch (not just Landrieu and Pryor) not to vote for Obamacare.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary or Warren... on: December 15, 2014, 04:49:15 pm
Warren

(just kidding, Hillary of course)


Traitor!

Edit: Didn't see the small print.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz will win the Republican primary- My prediction on: December 15, 2014, 04:35:59 am
Hold up, before we get to electing him, is he even eligible to be President? Let us not forget the clause of the Constitution calling for the president to be a natural born citizen. Cruz was born in Canada...

I would love to see how he explains that and how conservatives will argue it's okay (even though Obama was born "somewhere else" supposedly, it's okay Cruz was...)

It's not OK and he is not a natural born citizen. His run is a joke.


17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Virginia be more Democratic than Pennsylvania? on: December 14, 2014, 08:57:11 pm
The answer is yes. Virginia is unattainable for the Republicans, while Pennsylvania is presumably unattainable for the Republicans.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state seems to be gone for Republicans? on: December 14, 2014, 08:46:56 pm
If I can select only one, then New Hampshire.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NC-PrimR: Carson leads at 19%, Hillary at 52% PrimD on: December 11, 2014, 09:34:28 pm
I can see Carson winning up to 20% of the black vote in NC- many blacks are Christian conservatives who vote Democratic only because of the perceived racism of the GOP (see the results of the 2008 referendum on gay marriage, for instance)...

Can he possibly win 30% of blacks?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Hillary tied with, slightly up on Rs, Biden/Warren down on: December 11, 2014, 09:23:48 pm
It's actually Clinton 46, Huckabee 44.

It doesn't matter. With favorability rating of 41/51, she is not going to win North Carolina against any credible opposition.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Selzer national poll: Clinton leads GOP field by 6-13 points on: December 08, 2014, 08:02:48 pm
Name recognition, guys!

I'd focus more on the relative approvals, which do suggest Clinton has a real but not insurmountable advantage over that GOP field.

I agree. Her favorabilities are higher than I expected.
We'll see if that holds when the campaign starts and she starts going negative on her opponent for lack of meaningful ideas.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Selzer national poll: Clinton leads GOP field by 6-13 points on: December 08, 2014, 07:55:49 pm
Name recognition, guys!
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican has the best leadership qualities? on: December 08, 2014, 05:40:44 am
Christie, followed by Walker, then Kasich.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Hypothetical: DSCC invests in runoff, Keystone XL passes Senate and is vetoed on: December 07, 2014, 03:07:37 am
What if she didn't vote for Obamacare and listened to her constituents might be a better question to ask.

She would have won, because there would be no way to paint her as Obama Democrat.

The same applies to Hagan.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich hugs the center on Common Core / immigration / Medicaid expansion on: December 06, 2014, 06:32:03 pm
Walker is strongly pro-immigration reform. It is both a moral and economic issue.

Any pro-free market Republican (supported by the Chamber of Commerce) will be pro-immigration reform.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 32


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines