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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Battleground States? on: November 10, 2012, 07:49:10 am
@tokar

I subtracted the national margin from the state margin. Thatís how I got my numbers.

If we did that for Virginia, we would have:

VA Ė 0.98 D in 2008, + 0.41 D in 2012

Obviously, Virginia trending D.


Again, because you live in Virginia, could you tell me something? I noticed that the percentage of evangelicals voting in 2012 was way down compared to 2008. What was the reason for this?
I think they didnít turn out because Mitt is a mormon.

Also, in MI, WI, PA and OH lots of working class whites didnít turn out.
I think these are lost to the Democratic Party and that they will turn out next time to vote for a compassionate conservative with a populist message.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Ongoing Republican Primary on: November 09, 2012, 11:11:19 pm
Martinez.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Battleground States? on: November 09, 2012, 10:59:30 pm
@tokar

PA, MI, WI and MN are trending Republican. With a right candidate (one who can relate to white working class and turn out evangelicals = a compassionate conservative bordering populist) they can be in play as soon as 2016.

A compassionate conservative would greatly increase his share of blacks and Hispanics and probably win Asians.


Evangelicals are a shrinking constituency. If I were on the Right I would not bank on their votes.

What would you do then?

Remember, the goal is to win the election, not to merely participate.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Battleground States? on: November 09, 2012, 10:56:59 pm
@tokar

PA, MI, WI and MN are trending Republican. With a right candidate (one who can relate to white working class and turn out evangelicals = a compassionate conservative bordering populist) they can be in play as soon as 2016.

A compassionate conservative would greatly increase his share of blacks and Hispanics and probably win Asians.

No they aren't. Seriously, where did you pull this out of your ass?


2012 results are still not final, but:

PA + 3.05 D in 2008, +2.68 D in 2012
MI + 9.15 D in 2008, + 6.94 D in 2012
WI + 6.64 D in 2008, + 4.13 D in 2012

PA, MI and WI trended Republican.


MN didnít trend Republican:

MN + 2.97 D in 2008, + 5.11 D in 2012


Unlike 2008, Obama campaigned in all four (or Bill Clinton).
McCain campaigned in PA in 2008.
5  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 09, 2012, 04:11:19 am
During the entire period of polling, between 37% and 51% named immigration the most important issue. I don't know how you can read this as anything but a very forceful statement that this is super-important.

Anyway, it's not so much immigration reform, but why it is not adopted. People do feel that the reason for Republican opposition is xenophobia. It is hard to ask a Jew to vote for an anti-semite. It's no different here.


I think that immigration should be promoted because it increases economic growth. I think the only way to go is amnesty, citizenship for children of illegal immigrants and opening up for more immigration.

The best way to dispel fears that the Republicans are xenophobic is for Republicans to nominate a Hispanic in 2016.
6  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Rove: Obama won by "suppresing the vote" on: November 09, 2012, 03:44:09 am
I think that Karl Rove should retire and that the Republican Party should have a new strategist, younger, more modern, one who can counter the Obama microtargeting strategy that won him the election.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Battleground States? on: November 09, 2012, 03:30:57 am
@tokar

PA, MI, WI and MN are trending Republican. With a right candidate (one who can relate to white working class and turn out evangelicals = a compassionate conservative bordering populist) they can be in play as soon as 2016.

A compassionate conservative would greatly increase his share of blacks and Hispanics and probably win Asians.
8  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The rehabilitation of Bush II? on: November 08, 2012, 08:47:11 pm
I would suggest leaving out the Bush name. But I support the compassionate conservative approach.
9  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Project ORCA=Fail on: November 08, 2012, 08:02:56 pm
Epic fail.

Couldn't turn out the evangelicals/white working class.

Evangelicals were turned off because Romney was a Mormon and not conservative enough.
White working class was turned off because Romney was a vulture capitalist member of the 1%.
10  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 08, 2012, 07:28:50 pm
Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

Alas, I am afraid it's not the matter of SES or of economics at all. I haven't seen any evidence to show that, as Hispanics go up the scale, they become less Dem. Even Cubans are now not at all solidly Republican. It's the Jewish thing. Rich Jews are not voting Republican - the ones who are are the Russian and the Orthodox (and these are not very high up). Same w/ Hispanics. The Republican party has chosen to alienate that electorate by exhibiting open prejudice against Hispanics - tough luck, they are there to stay.

Hereís a poll done by Latino Decisions.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Tracker-toplines-week-10.pdf


And here are my comments, still valid:

Quote
I don't understand this. They say that the most important issue for them is Create more jobs/Fix the economy 54%. Yet, they still support Obama who is never going to create a single job/fix the economy.

Maybe the most telling is the answer to the question: Who is to blame?
The majority says Bush 64%. It seems they are very disappointed in Bush having voted him two times in office. He really failed them miserably.

They say then that fighting in Congress is most to blame for economy not improving more quickly 64%. Yet they still want to reelect Obama and continue the fighting in Congress.


They get the basics wrong on many other vital topics, but here is the absolute gem:
Thinking about the future of our economy, which party do you trust more to make the right decisions and improve our economic conditions? Obama and Democrats 73%


Bottom line: Itís the economy, stupid. How I perceive the economy and how they perceive the economy are two worlds. Thatís why I donít understand it.

Bottom line 2: The GOP needs a compassionate conservative to win the Hispanic vote. Immigration reform is not a must, just some progress in that area.

11  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Paul Ryan Didn't Deliver Wisconsin or Catholics. Was he a Mistake? on: November 08, 2012, 05:21:28 pm
Ryan was a complete zero. He was worse than bad. He was irrelevant and probably hurt his image going forward. Vice Presidential losers don't see positive results after their loss.

FDR
12  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cabinet role for Mitt Romney? on: November 08, 2012, 05:15:15 pm
It's not going to happen, even though it really, really should.

I'd say Mitt Romney would've done the same for Obama, but let's face itóObama doesn't really bring much to the table.

What the heck does Romney 'bring to the table'?

Understanding of how the economy works and how to run a business. None of Obamaís advisors has the same insight.

Obama knows he is in deep trouble and he needs at least one sensible voice in his cabinet.

A second added bonus would be appeasing the Republicans and reducing opposition to his policies.


He made the same move with Hillary.
13  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 08, 2012, 04:06:36 pm
Opebo, North Carolina and Georgia will probably remain Republican because the whites will adopt the mentality of the besieged and start voting like Mississippi/Louisiana whites.
14  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 08, 2012, 04:00:27 pm
Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

A. Eventually Texas becomes a swing state so the GOP needs to change their immigration policies sooner or later.

B. Even if they could pull off your plan they would be gaing in states that loses EV and losing states with growing EV numbers.


My proposal is not the real solution. Itís just a temporary fix for the current problem.
Real solutions take time and this proposal is buying time.
15  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 08, 2012, 03:54:58 pm
Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

If they do that they'll have to moderate their stances on unions and accept that unions can engage in collective bargaining, otherwise their message will go nowhere

Support for private sector unions, but opposition to public sector unions.
16  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 08, 2012, 03:24:03 pm
Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP 2016 poll - Moderate or not? White Male or Not? on: November 08, 2012, 01:13:36 pm
Why not latino + female + conservative?
18  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cabinet role for Mitt Romney? on: November 08, 2012, 10:55:00 am
Secretary of Business, the department Obama intends to create.

19  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Exit Polls on: November 08, 2012, 10:02:45 am
I'm afraid, this is the main reason Romney lost:


Who is more to blame for current economic problems?

TotalObamaRomney
Barack Obama38%5%94%
George W. Bush53%85%12%
20  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Crow I eat it. on: November 08, 2012, 06:43:34 am
Good! Kudos to you.

But where are all the republican pundits at? Where's Dick Morris, Rush Limbaugh, Karl Rove, anyone at FOXNEWS, the Unskewed polls guy, etc. etc. Where are all the people who made fun of Nate Silver? Where are all the people who claimed that the pollsters were trying to influence the race?

I would really like to see some of those people own up to it and apologize to the likes of Nate Silver, the pollsters, the "liberal media", etc. Not to be gloating, but to restore some level of sanity to the political discourse. For now, there's nothing to suggest that these people won't attempt the very same crazy conspiracy theories and distortions come the next election.

Morris has conceded he was wrong - saying he misread the electorate projections.
Well, that's good. Is there's a clip or blog somewhere? Did he address his "the undecideds ALWAYS break for the challenger" nonsense as well?

That was my nonsense too.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Battleground States? on: November 08, 2012, 06:32:02 am

This leaves (in my mind): CO, AZ, TX, FL, VA, GA, NC.
CO, FL, VA, and NC are true swing states, at the moment.


If those are the swing states, there's no point in having a presidential election. We may as well declare the Democratic Party candidate the winner since a Democrat wouldn't need a single one of those swing states to win.

I was talking about a more realistic scenario in which the GOP does not concede the presidential election.
22  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Paul Ryan Didn't Deliver Wisconsin or Catholics. Was he a Mistake? on: November 08, 2012, 04:49:46 am
Should've gone with Christie.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I think Mitt Romney should run again in 2016! on: November 07, 2012, 09:47:45 pm
Mitt lost because he is a Mormon. He couldn't get out the evangelical vote.

Mitt should not run again.


Kinda makes you wonder why Huntsman would want to run again in 2016? 

Huntsman just wants the Senate seat when Hatch croaks.

I agree, Evangelicals will never turnout for a Mormon the way they turnedout for Bush.  THey were the difference with Bush winning and Romney losing.

The minute I saw, in CNN exit polls, the percentage of evangelical vote in Virginia, I knew the election was over.
24  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which of these noncandidates would've won more EVs than Romney did had they run? on: November 07, 2012, 09:38:39 pm
Christie would have won the election.
Jeb Bush would have made it much closer, possibly won.
25  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama wins...how will his 2nd term be? on: November 07, 2012, 09:21:43 pm
I used to care about unemployment rates, but if the rest of the country doesn't care, then I'm no longer going to worry about other people's problems.  The new normal will be 7-8% unemployment, perhaps this is just a natural evolution of developed countries.  Government social programs are needed because a capitalist system cannot hire all the citizens. 

Once you go down that road, there's no stopping the unemployment rate. See Spain. 25% unemployment, youth unemployment 50%.
Socialist paradise on Earth.
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