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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: Today at 03:22:55 am
In other words, can this be a plausible Christie victory?


2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: Today at 03:16:49 am
I think this is a realistic PVI map (that means if the country splits exactly 50/50, not who wins each state). Florida and Wisconsin are the tough ones here. A lot of people here don't think Florida can lean D but that only takes a 2.99% trend. In years with new candidates (2000, 2008) that number is very common either way as opposed to re-election years (2004, 2012).



OK. Let's say the popular vote is 50/50.

This is a terrible loss for Republicans. To win with 50/50, they need FL and another state.
Could Christie put New Jersey in play? Democrats are very skilled at winning swing states on turnout, but since New Jersey is not a swing state, they could have problems winning it, if it became competitive.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: Today at 02:41:12 am
To win, Republicans must win back the sorts of people who believe in thrift, investment, enterprise, and rational thought -- essentially the sorts who would have voted for Eisenhower in the 1950s. They have no use for attempts to impose fundamentalist Christianity in the schools or regulate sexuality.

If Republicans ignore such people, then Democrats will pick them up.

These people are rational and they understand that it is usually necessary to vote for someone who isn't a perfect fit for their own vies and beliefs, but who is a far lesser evil. Of course, Ted Cruz and his lookalikes would be off-putting to these people.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: Today at 02:30:56 am
To win in 2016 the GOP needs a candidate that can get Romney numbers with whites and Bush 04 numbers with non-whites. Good luck with that.

Ding ding. The GOP's demographic problem in a nutshell. The fact that they have to try to hold Hillary Clinton, who dominated among working class whites in the 2008 primary, to a lower share of the white vote than John f'ing Kerry perfectly sums up the problems the GOP will have in 2016.

Not that it can't be done, but the "muh Democratic fatigue" sweeping the GOP into the White House like many blue avatars seem to think will happen won't be quite so easy.


Key to winning working class whites is nominating a populist, the sort of compassionate conservative who is a complete opposite to my own political views (social conservative and economical populist). The second part of the winning combo is linking Hillary to Obama. She won't be able to escape that association.

While that linking will persuade whites to support the Republican, it will not energize the blacks and the Hispanics to support her. Linking her to Obama is a win-win option, so I see that it will be the crux of the Republican campaign from very early on (March 2016).

5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 06:30:23 pm
Yes, but so does the overall electorate. If the Dems could turn out all those dormant voters in large states...
That would be a true landslide.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 06:19:39 pm
If that happens, Republicans can forget about winning in presidential election.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 02:22:38 pm
OK. But if her floor is 38% whites, then the election is already lost.
Hence this thread.

It may be necessary to resort to a candidate being personally able to carry FL, VA, OH and IA without winning the popular vote, like G. W. Bush.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your choice on: October 22, 2014, 02:00:04 pm
Option 2. No-brainer.
It's a win-win situation.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY: The DSCC is back baby! on: October 22, 2014, 01:57:08 pm
Maybe they have conceded AR and CO, so KY is the last hope.
Or maybe it's just the Clintons' influence, given that Grimes is their ally.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why shouldn't we expect the same polling errors in 2014 colorado as in 2010 CO? on: October 22, 2014, 02:37:28 am
I don't know, but I expect the pollsters learned their lesson.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 02:31:59 am
I don't expect the Republicans to repeat the debacle of the 2012 primaries.
In addition to this, the candidates this time look better.
In addition to this, Hillary is a weaker candidate than Obama.
In addition to this, Hillary is too old. That fact alone will play a big role.


Ted Cruz will be dead in the water after Iowa and New Hampshire, or maybe even before that.

I see Bush, Christie and Rubio as established candidates.
Ryan is a possibility, but his fiscal conservatism would be inappropriate for 2016, because Republicans need high margins with whites, and they don't want to put off the white worker class.

Which one of those I mentioned would stand a chance against Hillary?
Which other candidate I didn't mention could be a serious contender?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict Louisiana on: October 22, 2014, 12:26:34 am
Landrieu wins the primary. I think she wins the run-off as well unless Republicans win exactly 50 seats on election day and they need Louisiana to get a majority. If Republicans win 51 or more (or 49 or less) then she can do it.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 06:59:03 pm
So, if she hits the floor, the door will hit her.

14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-SUSA: Another poll, another Hagan lead of 3 points on: October 21, 2014, 06:36:17 pm
She is on 46%, so she can still lose, even though I have her winning in my prediction.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DEMOCRATS: Should the Democratic Party compete for Missouri in 2016? on: October 21, 2014, 06:24:06 pm
The Democrats don't need Missouri, so no.

Obama didn't need Florida, Ohio, or Virginia either. So he should have conceded them to Romney?

Obama had too much money to burn. I don't think Hillary will have comparable amounts of money.

Competing in states that are unnecessary is a luxury Hillary just might not be able to afford.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 06:18:46 pm
Yeah. That too.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 06:12:45 pm
Is it possible that Hillary will perform much worse with men than Obama did?
If that happens, she may get less than 38% of the vote.
She won't get more women than Obama already got. I think Obama maxed out on women.


In those circumstances, which candidate would be best: Bush, Christie, or Rubio?
I know that Paul is a serious candidate and I support him, but I donít think that 2016 will be his year because of ISIS.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DEMOCRATS: Should the Democratic Party compete for Missouri in 2016? on: October 21, 2014, 06:00:59 pm
The Democrats don't need Missouri, so no.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 01:43:04 pm
What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 01:40:50 pm
The presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party is Hillary Rodham Clinton.
So, let's consider only her in our deliberation, please.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sen. Angus King considering switching parties after midterms? on: October 21, 2014, 01:33:06 pm
Orman says on his website that he would coordinate with other independent senators (presumably King) and then caucus together with the majority party.

So, if Orman wins, he will caucus with the GOP as well.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 01:24:28 pm

Same as OP but I give GOP NH because it is not a state won on minority turnout. I'm a big believer in demographics for election results and the GOP's best chance is to carry about 64% of the white vote which would be this map.


OK. We're getting somewhere and I tend to agree. Latinos coming back to GOP isn't going to happen in 2016.

Now, which candidate would be the best for running up the margin with whites to 64%?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 12:25:30 pm
JMO, but this board severely overrates how loyal NH is to the Democratic Party.  It would go GOP in a favorable environment with a solid candidate.


NH has same day registration. So does Wisconsin. I think we can all agree there are more Democrats than Republicans in the country. Therefore, these two states are out of reach of the GOP in presidential years when the Democrats are willing to spend huge amounts on GOTV effort.


By the way, could you elaborate on your favorable environment and solid candidate?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Latino Decisions/NCLRAF: Udall wallops Gardner among Latinos on: October 21, 2014, 10:29:09 am
Yes, by supporting Medicaid, the EPA, and the minimum wage.

Well, a minimum wage and expanded Medicaid is a possibility, but a candidate supporting the EPA in its current form would face problems in the primary.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 21, 2014, 10:17:51 am
OK. I think we can agree that no Republican can win Nevada any more. Virginia is slipping.

So, who should be the Republican candidate in two years, who could win FL, OH and then 2 out of three PA, VA and IA?
CO is still in play, but not easily part of electoral calculus.

Another question: Can a Republican win in CO and PA and forfeit FL?
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