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September 04, 2015, 06:14:56 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb: it's "bizarre" that Trump thinks all immigrants must speak English on: Today at 12:15:57 am
Maybe Jeb is trying to lose the primary in order to win the general. If Bush does much stronger than Trump in general match ups come January, that might turn into his trump card in the end, being the ultimate game changer in the end game.

The closer we are to danger, the farther we are from harm.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: GA-Fox 5/IA - Clinton 51, Sanders 24, Biden 15; Trump 34, Carson 25 Bush 11 on: September 03, 2015, 11:44:51 pm
I expected a bigger margin for Hillary.

Hillary is sinking fast with both grouops - the blacks and the whites. We should not be surprised if she soon fell below 50% in southern states.


lol @ Trump+Carson=60%

Future President and Vice President.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why do you support Trump? on: September 03, 2015, 11:21:11 pm
Ehye hitt mye hed an now has bwain damge. Twump 4 Prez11!

Post of the year. I concede that I am not nearly as funny as you Badger.

Badger is a left wing hack.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump On Ben Carson: "Doctors don't create jobs" on: September 03, 2015, 01:47:36 pm
There goes my hope for a Trump/Carson Ticket.

That ticket is alive and kicking and Trump's statement wasn't really an attack.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - September 2015 on: September 03, 2015, 01:42:46 pm
It's Trump for sure.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the results by race in a Clinton vs. Trump election on: September 02, 2015, 11:45:14 pm
White (70%): 58% Trump, 40% Clinton
Black (12%): 91% Clinton, 8% Trump
Hispanic (12%): 80% Clinton, 18% Trump
Asian (4%): 77% Clinton, 21% Trump
Other (2%): 65% Clinton, 33% Trump

Which equates to roughly a 53-45 Clinton victory.


White (70%): 65% Trump, 35% Clinton
Black (12%): 85% Clinton, 15% Trump
Hispanic (12%): 70% Clinton, 30% Trump
Asian (4%): 55% Clinton, 45% Trump
Other (2%): 55% Clinton, 45% Trump
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Carson on: September 02, 2015, 04:05:09 pm
"Trump can begin by complimenting Carson’s “inspirational” story and medical brilliance, but then pivot to his lack of leadership experience. “He’s a wonderful guy, but we’re not fixing brains here, we’re getting killed by China. We’re not separating Siamese twins, we’re separating Mexico from Texas with a beautiful wall!”

The above is the way to do it, and it's basically true. Carson is a nice guy, but not qualified to be POTUS. Trump isn't either, and has a temperament and judgment problem to boot, but a big chunk of the Pubs don't give a damn about that apparently. It's sad the two current front runners for the Pubs are so totally unqualified to be POTUS. It makes Mittens look like a veritable political God in comparison. Where have all the flowers gone?  But miracles can and do happen, and maybe Kasich will rise and save the polity from itself. Keep hope alive! Smiley

The idea of having someone you identify with and understands "people like me" rather than an expert is a large part of the appeal to both Trump and Carson.  So this is one place Trump can't go.  I don't think Trump can do much to attack Carson without it backfiring.

The only way of attacking Carson that wouldn't backfire is to claim that he is low energy.
That's something Trump could use occasionally, but I doubt he'll use it systematically.

8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Carson on: September 02, 2015, 03:34:13 pm
There is no need for Trump to attack Carson. Both are outsiders and crusaders against political correctness.

Since Carson won't attack Trump and isn't ruling out becoming his VP, I think that is precisely what's going to happen. Between the two of them, they'll have enough votes to clinch the nomination.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win the black vote? on: September 02, 2015, 03:15:39 pm
I suspect he'll run with Carson as his VP pick, so I think such duo could win something around 20%, maybe even 30% of the black vote in the general.


Suggesting black people would vote for a candidate just because that person also happens to be black is (one) reason why Republicans get only 5-10% of the black vote.

Republicans get 5% when the democratic candidate for President is black and they get 10 to 13% when the democratic candidate is white.

Obviously, when the republican candidate is black, they should get at least some of tho black democratic vote and i don't expect them to get many - let's say around 20% total. That's not more than 10% of the normal black democratic vote switching sides and voting for a black candidate. That seems very reasonable to me. Plus Trump is well liked by blacks anyway.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win the black vote? on: September 02, 2015, 10:21:44 am
I suspect he'll run with Carson as his VP pick, so I think such duo could win something around 20%, maybe even 30% of the black vote in the general.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Utah voters don't like Trump, only leads Hillary by 9 on: September 01, 2015, 04:29:23 pm
I can't use it on the map. But this is consistent with a dismal (for Utah) lead of Trump over Clinton). 

Why can't you use it?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Morning Consult national poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 1-11 points on: August 31, 2015, 11:55:34 pm
Donald Trump is the strongest Republican candidate because he will get the largest percentage of the white vote and in particular white men.

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win the GOP nomination in 2016? on: August 31, 2015, 11:34:49 pm
I voted yes, but it's too early to tell.

I don't think that the GOP Establishment will deny Trump an otherwise won nomination. That would be suicidal.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why haven't Trump's opponents portrayed him as a RINO? on: August 30, 2015, 06:16:37 pm

I wonder if Trump's fans are even aware of his liberal positions anyways.


We are aware and we don't care. Trump is a breath of fresh air.
He is the cure for the current political system which is on its deathbed.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What percentage of the white vote will Democrats get in 2016? on: August 30, 2015, 11:14:42 am
Certainly less than 40%.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Des Moines Register: Sanders Within 7 of Clinton in Iowa on: August 29, 2015, 08:43:37 pm
Bye Hillary!

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The official Dr. Ben Carson discussion thread on: August 29, 2015, 08:27:01 pm
I like Carson a lot and agree with him on most positions.
He is a very likable candidate. He doesn't go negative.
He may not have the passion necessary to win in the current day and age,

He will not emerge as the anti-Trump, because he won't accept that role.
His supporters overlap with Trump's. He is an outsider, just like Trump.

If he stays second, he will be the natural Trump's choice for VP.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How could Republicans win without Ohio? on: August 29, 2015, 03:24:39 pm
No way.





This, or some other combination including Virginia and excluding NH/IA is the only plausible map.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IBD/TIPP Poll: Hillary down to 44% on: August 29, 2015, 02:48:44 pm
Hillary is down to a bigger lead than the latest Fox and CNN polls

I think the more significant thing is her percentage of the vote keeps dropping though.

Dropping like a stone. We can't keep up with the speed of her percentages dropping.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Utah will be a battleground state if Republicans nominate Trump on: August 29, 2015, 02:38:16 pm
54-46 is not a battleground state.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IBD/TIPP Poll: Hillary down to 44% on: August 29, 2015, 02:18:37 pm
Let me post this again:

From August 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,563 registered voters nationwide

16. What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Hillary Clinton? (Numbers are not percentages. Figures show the number of times each response was given. This table reports only words that were mentioned at least five times.)


                           Tot
 
liar                      178
dishonest           123
untrustworthy      93
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Survey Monkey poll:Trump way up in GOP race, but Hillary struggles for lead in D on: August 28, 2015, 11:50:59 pm
It says that the top two on the Democratic side are:

Clinton 38%
Sanders 32%

when you only include Democrats, but that becomes:

Sanders 30%
Clinton 28%

when you include Indies.


Inevitable?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-EpicMRA: Bush leads, Trump trails on: August 28, 2015, 11:44:20 pm
I think Trump has a good chance of winning MI. His populist rhetoric will resonate with the white working class.

Compare this to recent UK election where the white working class completely abandoned the Labour in favor of UKIP. Trump is Cameron and Farage in one person.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When will Trump implode? on: August 28, 2015, 11:28:08 pm
In March, most likely. Trump will win one of the primary states, mark my word. Carson will drop out and Cruz will benefit.

Trump could offer Carson the VP slot.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton leads all GOPers, but Biden is doing better. on: August 28, 2015, 01:12:01 am
The 'first word that comes to mind' open question is interesting.

Here are top 5 for Clinton, Bush and Trum

Hillary Clinton
liar               
dishonest           
untrustworthy       
experience         
strong             

Jeb Bush
Bush (yes, the number one word that comes to mind for Jeb Bush is "Bush")               
family               
honest               
weak                 
brother             

Donald Trump
arrogant             
blowhard             
idiot               
businessman         
clown             


Donald Trump
successful             
tough           
strong
daring             
businessman         
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