could he sweep every county lol?

All besides Hudson and Essex, which Buono will win by 3% or so.

Even with Joe D pulling strings for Christie in Essex?

Yikes. Things have changed. I have no idea who any of these people are.

Rowan! You beautiful bastard! Where have you been!

Just been busy and there hasn't really been much to talk about since the election. I'll still post sporadically, but definitely not as much as I did previously. In the summer I'll probably post more once work is out for the summer.

So since November(5 months), Buono's percentage of the vote total has been between 22-26%. For a Democrat in NJ(who should get 40% just by breathing), awful.

This is Harper's first poll, so it's hard to say "shrinks" when there's nothing to compare it to. Also, according to the crosstabs it has Christie at 83% of R's when every other poll has him well over 90%.

These early polls are useless because there's rarely party unity for the party with a contested primary which always skews the numbers(ex. Christie at 74% of R's).

BOOM-SHAKA-LAKA

Not bad for Christie...

If I were to quibble about the party ID of either poll, it would be OH not CO.

Good. This sets him up for a match up against Obama in 2016.

...what?

We all know Obama will be running for a third term.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/christie_had_veeping_doubts_b1gkN5io8CtDgcuiuEgMqL#ixzz24jya7CMr

Gov. Chris Christie wasn’t willing to give up the New Jersey statehouse to be Mitt Romney’s running mate because he doubted they’d win, The Post has learned.

I don't understand, his term ends in 2014 so even if he runs for VP and loses, he's still Governor.

Of course, being a VP loser wouldn't help him, but unless NJ has some resign-to-run law I'm not aware of, "give up the New Jersey statehouse to be Mitt Romney’s running mate" sentence doesn't make sense.

Romney was demanding that he resigned in order to run.

Good. This sets him up for a match up against Obama in 2016.

Gender    
Male    50%    
Female    50%    
   
Age    
18-39    38%    
40-64    50%    
65+    12%    
   
Race    
White    83%    
Black    3%    
Other    14%    
   
Party    
Republican    32%    
Democrat    31%    
Other    37%    

If you guys want me to post the crosstabs of any polls just let me know(it would be best to send me a PM since it sends me an e-mail).

23 point swing in a month? Riiiight....

Politics is a blood sport, if you don't like it, get out.

Christie runs for re-election in 2013. Democratic opposition will either be former US Rep Steve Rothman who was a victim of redistricting. US Rep Robert Andrews from South Jersey who ran for Governor in 1997 but lost in the primary to McGreevey.

No it won't.

It'll be a State Senator or Assemblyman. I'm thinking either Buono or Greenwald.

What could be possibly done is to take 50% of the licensing fees for new casinos and use that money for treatment of addiction.

Casinos aren't even generating profits these days. Most are working with losses right now.

LOL. No.

Wisconsin(Rasmussen)

Romney: 47%
Obama: 44%

Hmm....

The sample is R+5. Obama +1 among independents. 33R-28D-39I

Why didn't umengus point out that fact in his post? Maybe it was because the poll benefits republicans...

Or because that information is only available to subscribers and umengus is not one...

The Governor of Missouri and the Democratic Senator are both very popular. The coattails could help President Obama in Missouri.

Claire McCaskill is very popular? Are you insane? Seriously? Get a clue.

will be a safe Romney state by Labor Day

No. No trend so states. If you are going from a PPP poll to a Rasmussen poll as evidence of a long-term trend then you are going on nothing. Democrats are doing a good job in Missouri, and nothing says that the state won't be close again in 2012, which bodes anomalously well for President Obama in Missouri. It is more R than the national average, but at this point I see no cause to believe that the 2012 election will have results significantly different from those of 2008.

If President Obama makes any significant gains in the sorts of voters who went for Clinton twice but rejected him in 2008, then Missouri flips (and in turn probably Georgia, South Carolina,  Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia). But that is asking much.

If you thought that President Obama was horrible in 2008 and think that he still is in 2012 -- you were in the minority in 2008 and will be in 2012.  The same liberals who thought Ronald Reagan a joke in 1980 so thought again in 1984.

You are living in such an alternate reality it's not even funny.