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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The People's White House: Duke Administration (Educating The People) on: March 17, 2014, 08:11:58 pm
I finally found this building, Mr. President. I presume my office is ready?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: SC-Harper (R): Christie with a small lead on: October 30, 2013, 04:34:32 pm
It's an open primary, don't forget.
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of President-Elect Duke (Job Postings) on: October 22, 2013, 08:13:27 pm
BTW, it's about damn time you got elected man!

I'm glad you've made a triumphant return. I hope you choose to stick around for a while!

Hopefully there's enough new people here that won't know about my checkered past...
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Hot or Not: Obamacare Girl on: October 22, 2013, 08:04:03 pm
God no.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of President-Elect Duke (Job Postings) on: October 22, 2013, 07:55:21 pm
BTW, it's about damn time you got elected man!
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of President-Elect Duke (Job Postings) on: October 22, 2013, 07:50:20 pm
Can I be Chief of Staff?

Rowan! A historic return! I'd love to make you my chief of staff. I know you can play hardball.

Just give me the name and location and I'll give you their head on a platter.
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of President-Elect Duke (Job Postings) on: October 22, 2013, 07:46:51 pm
Can I be Chief of Staff?
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: October 22, 2013, 07:20:52 pm
Former Governor and Senator RowanBrandon
New Jersey
RPP
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: (NJ) who will win by a larger margin? on: October 08, 2013, 04:03:06 pm
Haven't seen any TV ads at all for Booker or Lonegan. Seen some Christie ones. Buono hasn't been on TV since May and says she won't be until after the special.
10  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ-Kean University: Christie +18 on: September 30, 2013, 04:55:50 am
This poll offered a "some other candidate" option and it got 6%. There is no viable "some other candidate" and I doubt that the total 3rd party vote will be anything greater than 1%.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ legislature on: September 22, 2013, 09:58:26 am
No incumbent Democrats will lose.
12  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / NJ: Rutgers University: Christie up by 20 on: September 16, 2013, 03:25:32 pm
NJ Governor(Rutgers Poll)

LVís
Christie: 55%
Buono: 35%

RVís
Christie: 55%
Buono: 33%

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_09-16-13.pdf
13  Questions and Answers / Polling / Re: PPP needs your help regarding cell-phone-only respondents on: September 07, 2013, 09:46:53 am
In Austria, the problem with cell-phone voters is the following:

When signing a cell-phone contract, you are asked if your name and phone number can be automatically added to the phone books.

Many (young) people are not allowing this.

Therefore, we have an ever increasing segment that's cell only and not in a phone book.

These people basically do not exist for pollsters, because they cannot contact them.

Don't many US pollsters actually dial random numbers within the area code in question?  That would eliminate the phone book problem, because it doesn't matter if you're listed or not.


But cell phone area codes don't always match where you actually reside. My cell phone area code is a different area code than where I live.
14  Questions and Answers / Polling / Re: PPP needs your help regarding cell-phone-only respondents on: September 04, 2013, 04:02:12 pm
Uh, isn't that their job, not mine?
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ron Paul cut off by CNN as he mentions blowback from our foreign policy on: September 03, 2013, 06:58:31 pm
Anytime Rand Paul's nonsense can get shut down, that is a good day.
16  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / VA: PPP for LCV: McAuliffe up 7, Libertarian almost double-digits on: August 29, 2013, 12:48:56 pm
Virginia Governor(PPP for LCV)

McAuliffe: 44%
Cuccinelli: 37%
Sarvis: 9%

http://www.lcv.org/elections/research/virginia-governor-general.pdf
17  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ-FDU: Christie+24 on: August 29, 2013, 07:04:24 am
It looks like they didn't press any leaners at all in this poll(along with the Senate portion). Pretty much useless with that many undecideds.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ-FDU: Booker+28 on: August 29, 2013, 07:03:14 am
Crazy number of undecideds. Weird poll.
19  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ-Monmouth: Christie-lead drops to 20, as Democrats come home to Buono on: August 22, 2013, 06:39:51 am
More Dems will probably come home as we get closer. Buono is currently at 71% of Dems, most likely she will end up with >80% of Dems.

Assuming the I and R numbers stayed the same(unlikely but for this exercise), if she consolidates to the following:

75%: 37% topline number
80%: 39% topline number
85%: 41% topline number
90%: 43% topline number
95%: 44% topline number

So, obviously she would need to make inroads with Independent voters. Let's assume Buono receives 85% of the Dem vote this year(from what I see, the most likely outcome). How much Independent vote would she need to win(assuming she gets the nominal 5% of the R vote)?

25%: 42% topline number
30%: 43% topline number
35%: 45% topline number
40%: 47% topline number
45%: 48% topline number
50%: 50% topline number

So she would need only 35% of the I vote to keep it to a single digit race and would need 50% to squeak by with a win. Unless, she bumped up her D vote to 90%(possible, but unlikely). So let's look at how much I vote she would need if her D vote was at 90%.

25%: 44% topline number
30%: 45% topline number
35%: 47% topline number
40%: 49% topline number
45%: 50% topline number
50%: 52% topline number

So if she gets 90% of the Dem vote, she could easily hold the race within 10 points by only getting 30% of the I vote. She would also need only 45% of the I vote to win.

Based on my running of the numbers, I would not be surprised if this ends up being a 55-45 race, because the D support will solidify. The only question is the turnout and whether the turnout model in this poll is correct or incorrect.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: LA-PPP: Hillary +7 on Jindal, competitive with other Rs on: August 21, 2013, 03:56:16 pm
If the Republican candidate gets less than 70% of the Republican vote, then yeah sure it could be competitive.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How come so many forumites were born in August? on: August 19, 2013, 12:49:15 pm
Because we're awesome.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Father to Chris Christie: Please don't let my daughter die, Governor on: August 16, 2013, 12:44:01 pm
It's unfortunate that this girl has such a terrible ailment, but marijuana is not the only thing that will save her life

Yes, actually, marijuana is the only thing that will save her life. No one goes to medical marijuana as a first-line treatment for a 6-year-old. These parents seek out medical marijuana because literally everything else they have tried has failed.

Besides, the alternative treatment consists of brutally addictive barbiturates and benzodiazepines. Is that really better?

Plus, if medical marijuana were not the only thing that could save her life, would they threaten to move to Colorado to have better access to it when there are other things available?  If I had a child with this horrible condition and my state didn't offer marijuana for medical use, I'd risk prison if it meant saving his or her life.

The naysayers really don't think these things through.  I doubt most of them have read a lick of research on this subject and just buy into the same baseless propaganda that's floated around for the last seventy years.

If it is the only thing that'll save her life, why haven't they already moved to Colorado (or some other place they can legally get it) already.  (And I say this as someone who has been a proponent of legalization for a long time.)

Because some people can't just move to what ever state they want at any given time for a number of reasons?

The father has already said they'll move to Colorado if it is vetoed.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Father to Chris Christie: Please don't let my daughter die, Governor on: August 16, 2013, 12:16:28 pm
But I do think Christie will allow for medical marijuana use in NJ

I highly doubt that.

Medical Marijuana use is already the law in NJ. Dispensaries are already up and running. The question here is whether it should be expanded to pot for tots.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Hey, there's a primary on Tuesday - NJ Special Senate Election Primary Coverage on: August 14, 2013, 10:17:54 am
Pretty sure people are underestimating the percentage Lonegan will get, especially in a low turnout election.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Hagan up comfortably on: August 13, 2013, 11:37:49 am
Under 50% and the majority of undecideds are Romney voters. Not even close to being over.
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