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Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen State Polling (10/7): GA, MN
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on: October 09, 2008, 01:23:13 am
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How can John McCain win this election? I know some people are saying the whole Harvey Gantt thing is going to happen with voters in the booths. But I actually think the opposite will happen. ( Mike Easley did say this earlier tonight, but i completely agree with him). Alot of people don't want to admit that they like him. There are a lot of republicans that don't like John McCain and do like Obama. Alot of it has to do with the older era (90's) republicans of trying to cool it down with world affairs and troops everywhere, wiretapping, patriot act type stuff. We all know this country is on the wrong track. I think republicans know it more than anyone else (a certain type of republican anyway). Remember the days of Gengrich. He was tough and malicious, but smart. The republican congress blew it during this decade and every republican including John McCain knows what I'm talking about. "We came to Washington to change it and it changed us" If the republican party doesn't stand for anything republican, then how are they going to get votes? we gave it to the dems.
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will the Democrats lead in the house slowly erode over the next 4 1/2 years?
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on: September 14, 2008, 11:24:41 pm
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There are many issues that have to be contemplated and do hinge a lot on who wins the presidential election. If Barack wins, it could allow congress to get more things done and boost its ratings (also if Barack is perceived to be a good president it will also help congress since they would most likely work with each other).
If McCain wins and fights the democratic congress and presents himself as "a reformer that cleans up Washington" by reducing pork and whatnot, then the democrats could have some problems. If McCain does win and looks like a maverick that successfully steers the republican party more towards a Reagan/90's conservative movement looking party rather than a Bush/2000's "yes man" huge spending corrupt party, then again, the democrats could have some problems.
How will this play out?
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Will the Democrats lead in the house slowly erode over the next 4 1/2 years?
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on: September 14, 2008, 11:13:51 pm
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I noticed a poll (forgot which one) came out recently stating that when a sample population was asked what party they would rather see control congress, the results were Democrats 48%, Republicans 45%, and 7% undecided.
A Gallup poll asking the same question that came out earlier this month said Republicans 50% to Democrats 45%.
Predictions are still that Dems are going to pick up seats none the less. But if the bad public perception of congress doesn't change while they control it now and on through the next presidential term, will they loose power in 2012 (or later, or even possibly earlier?)
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Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: TV Maps
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on: August 28, 2008, 01:07:14 am
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This CNN Map is weak. CNN doesn't take any, and I mean any chances when they made this map. everything that could be considered battleground except for Pennsylvania is labeled a battlegroound. Missouri as a toss up is ridiculous. Montana is closer than Missouri's is. They just chose Missouri because of its history as the number 1 bellwether state since 1900, but this time around unless there is a major change, its going republican.
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Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: potential gop vp wildcards
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on: August 25, 2008, 11:57:18 pm
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How about Lindsey Graham. He would satisfy conservatives (pro lifers are the most important ones to satisfy) while also continuing his maverick image (graham is apart of his regular posse with Lieberman and was also apart of the gang of 14 to avoid voting on the filibuster thing over judges)
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General Discussion / History / Re: Was Reconstruction a success?
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on: July 29, 2008, 01:59:00 am
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Reconstruction was too political. The Republican's bottom line was to ensure their hold on power in congress and presidency. In doing so, they did some pretty horrible things to many southern states. The Republican controlled Mississippi state government at one point confiscated hundreds of thousands of acres and sold the virgin forests on these lands to lumber companies based in the north (constituents of the national republican party) for dirt cheap. This is an example of why (although incorrectly) some people claim all reconstruction was was uneducated blacks running around being used by Yankees and exploiting the hell out of states and the former political elites in those states.
One thing is for sure. Reconstruction was another civil war. It was the "winning the peace" part similar to what we are doing in Iraq right now. The Yankee victors were trying to establish political bases in these states to promote northern/republican/industrial interests. They did so by appealing to different constituents of theirs (which of course include the people they freed). When that huge demographic of newly freed voters that were guaranteed to vote republican were being at best cheated at the polls, the national republican congress decided to intervene. It turned into a guerrilla war that lasted 11 years and the north lost.
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General Discussion / History / Re: Presidential Trivia
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on: July 28, 2008, 03:39:12 pm
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This trivia question is similar to my last one about Vermont (because all you have to do is look at the maps). What counties in the United States voted for George Wallace in 68 but also voted for Kennedy in 60, Mondale in 84, and Dukakis in 88?
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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: What will the democrats do if they lose in 2008?
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on: July 28, 2008, 03:16:28 pm
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If the Democrats loose, even though they will still pick up a little bit in the house and senate, they will have to graciously loose and do everything to help McCain get out of Iraq. They could help the country get better and take a lot of credit for it. McCain will try to help the Republican Party by fixing some issues but he will be viewed as being different than the average republican, therefor as everyone has a damaging view of the republican party the Democrats and McCain will look good. The Dems will establish themselves as America's majority party as they along with John McCain tackle energy/climate issues and foreign policy issues (in a different way than Bush and the republican image politicians did). Maybe beat McCain in 2012.
This situation is similar to the 1990's situation where Clinton (a moderate democrat) was liked but the public still placed Gingrich and his republicans as the majority in congress due to the political tide still moving in the conservatives' favor.
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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1968: Humphrey/Rockefeller vs. Nixon/Agnew vs. Wallace/LeMay
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on: July 28, 2008, 02:31:15 am
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This is a question for benconstine, in your map you have North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee going for Wallace in this scenario, why do you think that would have happened?
It seems that the situation wouldn't have changed much. In those three states, the Wallace Voters were going to vote for Wallace and if not for Wallace they would vote Nixon regardless of whom Hubert Humphrey's VP would have been (barring a segregationist on the ticket which would never have happened). Adding a liberal republican governor from New York that supported civil rights would not have sucked votes from Nixon to Humphrey enough to allow Wallace to win in either of these states (maybe Tennessee).
And I don't see how Hubert Humphrey adding Rockefeller would in any way increase Wallace's voter turnout or shift Humphrey voters to Wallace, or Nixon's voters to Wallace.
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