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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How does the White Gay Cis Male vote? on: July 18, 2014, 04:22:46 am
I'd presume gays are underrepresented in religious groups that are hostile to homosexuality -- particularly evangelical Christians and Mormons, the most heavily Republican groups in the nation. Considering religion's relevance to their preferences, it's difficult to see how they vote R in large numbers even in the Midwest and South.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: King County, Texas: Most anti-Obama county in America on: August 16, 2013, 04:58:11 am
WTF at 2:50:

Reporter: What do you think Barack Obama is?
Resident: Well, I think he's a Muslim.

Obviously we don't have the context preceding this question, but the question in and of itself is a striking Rorschach test. You could put any noun there and it would make sense.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Will LA overtake NYC as the most populous city or metro area in America by 2070? on: July 06, 2013, 05:28:35 pm
If the MSA adopts the same boundaries as the CSA (meaning it includes San Bernardino and Riverside counties); otherwise, just Los Angeles and Orange counties are in the metro and there's effectively no room in the Los Angeles Basin to build out anymore. The only part of the metro not in the Basin is around Lancaster and Palmdale north of LA, and it's my impression this particular area is not doing great economically right now.
4  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is The Obama Youth Brigade "The Lost Generation"? on: September 14, 2012, 05:09:53 pm
http://cew.georgetown.edu/whatsitworth/

There is no need to speculate on which majors fail to boost earning potential; statistics have been collected on this matter, use them. Most people with liberal arts majors can successfully make it into nonspecialized fields like management, sales, and clerical work, it seems.
5  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Priorities ad just massively backfired on: August 09, 2012, 03:00:11 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nj70XqOxptU

is this the ad being discussed? I'd have to see the specific objections over this, but I'm not sure what there is to be horribly outraged by. The bottom line is that his wife had no chance to beat cancer because of his displacement from his job. The debate, I guess, would be whether the steel mill would have closed regardless of whether private equity got involved, but that's the same debate that's been going on and on about Romney's Bain record for a while. It definitely adds importance to the concern that Romney's activities at Bain were good for himself, but bad for everyone else he did not care about under the new business orthodoxy of the time (who cares about employees and communities when shareholders need a great return, etc.)
6  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Anti-Paul states on: December 22, 2011, 04:08:23 am
Realistically, a major third-party candidate would emerge to collect the social conservative vote in an Obama v. Paul race. I don't see how the evangelical community would even hold their nose to vote for either of them. I'm not sure how great the swing would be, but it would not be in Paul's direction overall; trends would likely be distributed as follows:

Northeast: Trend R (ME/NH/VT might be one of the few regions of the country that would approach an R swing)
South: Trend D (only places trending to Paul might be parts of TX (in addition to Paul's congressional district) or FL, and a scattering of college towns)
Great Lakes: Trend D (IN and WI would probably be the most likely to trend R)
Plains: Trend R (Dakotas trend hardest R, Missouri might trend D)
West: Trend R (California and New Mexico might trend D, but that's the only two I can really see; ID/WY/MT would likely trend hardest R)
7  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: States by Region Survivor-Round Six! on: July 25, 2011, 07:44:34 pm
New Hampshire
8  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Counties of New York Survivor on: July 04, 2011, 10:55:56 am
2 Dutchess
1 Westchester

Keep Erie
9  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Most Developed Country Survivor on: July 04, 2011, 10:40:30 am
United Kingdom
10  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Counties of New York Survivor on: July 03, 2011, 01:49:04 pm
3 Dutchess
2 New York
1 Chautauqua

Keep:
Suffolk
Erie
11  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Most Developed Country Survivor on: July 03, 2011, 01:32:41 pm
United Kingdom
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is political moderation tied to higher income/safer environment, etc? on: March 04, 2011, 09:02:39 pm
This seems to make sense just intuitively. If you don't find any major problems with your community, you'll be less likely to believe drastic action needs to be taken. There are a fair share of moderates in poorer places as well, but they're more likely to believe both parties are a load of crap as opposed to believing both parties have their own merits and etc. While this is a bit old (2004), I think it's kind of the distinction of Upbeats v. Disaffecteds.

http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=949
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will Mississippi shift into the Democratic column? on: February 26, 2011, 11:54:04 pm
Yeah, basically when the electorate gets close to 50% white.
14  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: February 24, 2011, 06:54:37 pm
Gallup has a 2010 approval number for each state. Obviously not current, but still interesting. MS seems strangely high and NH seems strangely low, but maybe there is some MoE.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146294/Hawaii-Approving-Obama-States-Decline.aspx

I would imagine a lot of the disapproval brewing in VT (where he lost approval compared to '09 more than any other state) is coming from the left, but it's probably experiencing an effect like NH and ME have to a lesser extent, with above-average movement toward the Reps. The libertarianish history of these states likely clashed with Obama's big government policies.

I find it interesting that MS is the state where Obama's approval deteriorated the least; I'd imagine this is because he is a love-hate figure among the electorate there and there weren't many people he could turn off his administration. You can see where states like CO, TX, and NM are likely trending Dem. Interestingly, WI had below average depreciation in Obama's approval but was almost in the top 5 states in terms of change in party ID.
15  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mitch Daniels and Daylights Savings Time on: February 18, 2011, 05:26:54 pm
Before Daniels was Governor, only part of Indiana participated in the annoying and idiotic nuisance that is Daylights Savings Time. In 2006 it changed to all of it doing so, and he signed the bill. (This is probably his most notable accomplishment by the way making me wonder why so many are crazy about him.)

Could this negatively affect him in running?

It is annoying, but that probably has more to do with the fact that solar noon happens at almost 2pm during DST here, and it can be totally dark getting ready in the morning in early October. The whole state should be on Central Time (82' 30" W, the "ideal" dividing line between Central and Eastern time, runs east of Columbus, Ohio). I remember the DST controversy, and it used to be really strange for everyone because part of the year we'd be on the same time zone as Central folks and the other we'd be sharing the same time as Eastern. I understand why it was done, but it seems the reason they never adopted DST was because solar noon was already happening so late with Eastern time. I imagine this won't hurt him in the primaries; no one here is bitter about it.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: White Voters on: October 22, 2010, 08:48:02 pm
Will a majority of white voters ever vote a minority candidate for President? I know Obama, for a Democrat,  did the best among white voters since Carter but McCain still won the white vote.

They will, once the GOP runs a minority for president.  The only way a Democrat could win a majority of white voters is in like a 60+% election anyway, and that's not likely.

This. I think it's important to note that Obama likely did win the white vote excluding the South (not positive but I think the margin there as opposed to the total is enough to make that estimation), where McCain won it by 80%+ margins in many states where the parties are quite polarized along racial lines. Thus, either this would need to happen or the South's party politics would need to coalesce along some nonracial dichotomies.
17  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is the "middle ground fallacy" a logical fallacy? on: August 04, 2010, 07:23:10 pm
The middle ground fallacy is a logical fallacy. However, there is nothing inherently logical about taking any position either. Logic always serves a master; on most contentious issues, there are many people on both sides thinking logically, but they are simply making different values judgments. People who are Moderate Heroes tend to strongly believe in the role of diplomacy and compromise in governance and don't hold many strong ideological views. Moderate Heroism is very logical if you believe that the positions themselves are not as important as the process and making sure as many people are happy as possible with the result of legislation. If you are inclined to hold many strong ideological views, this can probably be frustrating. In the end this is probably pragmatism v. idealism in action.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who Is the Single Biggest Attention Whore on This Entire Forum???? on: July 29, 2010, 03:51:18 pm
Just what we need.  Another Rochambeau-esque spammer.

His profile says he's 12.  Isn't that enough for an automatic ban?

I wish.  If true, it's illegal for him to be here, but if the yougo precedent is involved, Dave doesn't care.

There's a law against kids posting on a politics message board? If so, we've got plenty of minors...

Kids under 13, yes. Older, no. The law basically prevents kids under 13 from divulging any information that might be used to contact them (including email) which many forum operators require. I wouldn't say Dave has much of a reason to worry; the main organizations that actually get nailed for this are corporations which can pay the heavy fines that are levied for violation. It is my impression that they (the FTC, responsible for enforcement) wouldn't waste their time trying to get money out of him. Somebody would need to complain and have a problem with it for it to get their attention, and then worst comes to worst they would probably just demand that he enforce the law and ban all users under 13.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Immigration Maps on: July 21, 2010, 01:07:28 am
Why did so many Africans migrate to NC since the 70's? And why wasn't data recorded before then?

African immigrants moved to NC for pretty much the same reason they moved anywhere else; jobs. Most of these people are highly educated, much like today's Asian immigrants, and professional jobs exist in NC on a scale they did not 30-40 years ago.

Immigration from Asia and Africa was restricted to the point of nonexistence from 1924 until 1965.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: FL, 1960 on: July 12, 2010, 05:29:40 pm
FL trended hard for Republicans after FDR and WWII, even before the Solid South started turning its back on the Democrats; Eisenhower won it twice, and it trended Rep six consecutive elections from 1944 to 1964. I guess the massive migration from the North was beginning to define it as its own entity separate from the "Deep South", which it had pretty much been until shortly before then. I would guess the Catholics that would have voted for Kennedy in the Northeast really didn't come until later, but I would need more facts to back that up.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Coons on: June 06, 2010, 11:09:17 am
Damn, I really like this guy just from this article. Just when I thought the DE Senate race was pretty much decided, Coons seems like he has what it takes to pull off a win. Very nice to see a politician who is open about raising taxes and doesn't hide from it, and can manage to talk in the press as if some of the voting public has an IQ above 80. Epic FF.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2010 Indiana Senate and Congressional Elections on: May 03, 2010, 09:46:49 pm
As a TH (Terre Haute) resident in the central-western part of the state, I have been seeing a lot of ads for Larry Bucshon and expect him to sweep the floor with the R primary for the IN-8. The Senate primary is a little tougher to tell; I think everyone is overestimating the appeal of Coats. No one here supports him, and I would expect the wealthy people in the Indy metro are the only people he could still really appeal to. With the lack of polling it's really anyone's game, but I wouldn't be as sure about Coats as some people are. With the anti-incumbent, anti-lobbyist political climate (and whenever that happens, IN's political climate is at least twice as anti-incumbent and anti-lobbyist), he's probably the least electable compared to Stutzman and even Hostettler and would give Ellsworth a good chance right off the bat.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Phelps protests marine's funeral, marine's family forced to pay Phelps on: April 07, 2010, 10:30:26 pm
Why hasn't anyone made it federal law that there must be a no-picketing buffer zone within a certain radius of funerals like some states already have (including WBC's home state of Kansas)? Problem solved.

EDIT: OK, apparently a few months after this soldier's funeral Congress passed a law prohibiting protests within 300 feet of military funerals, but that's only military funerals. :/
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Evan Bayh on: January 16, 2010, 04:59:39 pm
As another native, I back this up.

J.J. -

I don't care how "Republican" a year it is.  The only pols that might conceivably beat Evan Bayh are Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence.  And even then, we're talking a minor miracle.  The only Hoosiers who DON'T love this guy are uber liberals like me.

He was a successful, effective and popular Secretary of State.
He was a successfull, very effective and popular Governor for two terms.

And when he initially announced plans to run for Senate, our enormously popular Senator Dan Coats (a perfect match for this state being an Evangelical Christian Republican) simply chose not to risk losing. (Kinda lika Dodd and Dorgan are doing now.)  That's how powerful and popular Bayh is.

His Dad was a liberal.  But Evan is not.  Indeed, if it weren't for those historic family ties to the Democratic party and a very nominally pro-choice position on abortion rights, this guy would be a moderate to conservate Republican in the mold of Dick Lugar.

I'm not hear to cheer for Evan Bayh...he's my Senator and I tolerate him because he's about the best we Democrats can home for. But let's get real -- no one's gonna beat him minus a major scandal.

Bayh will win. I mean, even Obama (a black liberal from Chicago) managed to win Indiana (the historical home of the KKK and racism in the North).

You mean Obama, from next door.  This is one of several to watch.

Yeah, wasn't Gary, IN Metro the main reason he won? Super black and high turnout...

The area that swung the hardest was the Lafayette metro, which in a few decades will probably be Bloomington's companion politically as well as academically, though the whole state with the exception of the far southeast swung significantly above average.
25  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: eRepublik on: July 07, 2009, 09:58:04 am
eRep is awesome. I'm almost to level 17. My name is Badlands17. The game itself is fairly repetitive and simple; reading the news and seeing all the different ideas and people are where the game has depth.
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