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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's going on in Ohio and Iowa? on: Today at 06:47:47 am
I'm seeing pro-Trump Facebook posts from people back home I would never have expected to vote Republican. Trump certainly has made inroads with traditionally democratic blue collar whites in Ohio, but not nearly as much in Wisconsin (yet the media keeps citing it as a state Trump is expected to do well in for some strange reason). In recent decades rural working class whites have mostly left the Democratic Party but their urban counterparts had not prior to this year. You can look through the DRA map of Ohio and see across the state red townships and blue cities or even blue villages. It will be interesting to see what the map will look like this year, but it seems, anecdotally at least, that the white poor urban cores are moving toward Trump. What remains to be seen is whether this is a small trend or a dam bursting.

I don't quite understand why Iowa is so pro-Trump, but perhaps it is similar to the effect in Ohio since Iowa also has a lot of smaller white manufacturing towns without as many major cities as Ohio.

Very interesting.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark/WSBTV: Trump+4 on: Today at 06:34:33 am
The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.

Any reason why they decided not to?

Could be any number of reasons. Georgia has 10 million people spread across 159 counties, so it's very difficult to coordinate that many entities. There are a lot of county parties that effectively exist only on paper, so there is a tendency for campaigns to focus on a narrow subset of counties where the share of the Democratic vote is large and the parties are actually active/engaged.

I admit that I'm gauging this on my personal experience with the campaigns, so this one part is anecdotal...I'm in the heavily Republican north, which often gets left out as a whole due to its lack of county-by-county Democratic organization and sheer margins, but...I'm also in the largest county in North Georgia outside of the metro and the one that generally serves as the "hub" for coordinating the other surrounding counties wrt training events, distribution of campaign paraphernalia, etc. We usually get contacted earlier by the campaigns.

We did a hell of a job in Whitfield in 2014 if you look at the swing in the Governor's race and that got noticed. When you combine that, our relative activity compared to the other surrounding counties and  the county's population + demographics, one assumes that if they were reaching out at all in this part of the state, then they'd reach out here first. Because of that, I'm betting that none of the other counties were contacted earlier and that our experience is a relative barometer.

Long story short: six years too soon! Tongue
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-02-Normington Petts: Trump +4 on: Today at 06:24:39 am
could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

Well, rural New England+NY's North Country is the only area that has resisted this trend over the past 20 years. In fact, it's a lot more Democratic now than it used to be not so long ago. It's possible that this trend will begin reversing itself in 2016, but I still have reasonable hopes that this one holdout will continue resisting.

Well its about damn time, I say. I hope it reaches Vermont in 10 years or so.

It won't. Upstate New York and Northern Maine are fundamentally different from Vermont. The latter is significantly more educated (has one of the nation's highest postsecondary degree rates) and has an economy better adapted to the 21st century. There may be a slight trend R, but that'd be attributable solely to their incredibly low minority population.

The most interesting trends to watch within the Northeast alone will be the trend R in central and southern Pennsylvania, rural Maryland, southern Delaware, upstate New York, northern New Hampshire, northern Maine, and possibly northeastern Vermont, eastern Connecticut, and western Rhode Island. In contrast, the areas trending D will likely be the metros (urban core and suburbs) of Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Bridgeport, New Haven, Hartford, Providence, Boston, Worcester, Manchester, Portland, and the university towns. The easiest way to distinguish which county will trend D or R is to evaluate its current trend, postsecondary educational attainment, and minority population.

I don't expect religion to remain a factor going forward. These Maine voters aren't going for Trump because they attend church every week, many probably don't, are secular or just lapsed Catholics. If anything the movement away from religious issues and towards trade and immigration are the reason why they are voting for Trump. And lets not forget that as much as coalition you mention for Rockefeller, these types of voters in Maine, Iowa and elsewhere were also a part of the Republican coalition at one point and even ancestrally so, the partial inheritence the party received at its founding from the Jacksonian coalition.

If the Clintonian Democratic party becomes and continues to be interventionist and the Republicans continue to move away from that and more towards a restrained foreign policy, there is no way that Vermont doesn't start trending Republican regardless of educational attainment, especially with future candidates who are far better at coming off as less offensive to well most people (but especially the college educated) than Donald Trump does.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2 on: Today at 06:10:10 am
Trump is about as good a candidate for non-whites as the Republican Party could reasonably put up.

The last time the Republican Party was the party of economic nationalism and industrialization, it was also the party of Civil Rights. And remember, the first time it lost African Americans, it was not over Civil Rights (which they had forsaken them on in the 1870's), but jobs.

A different Trump candidacy without the hard edge and birtherism, could really have gotten 25% among African-Americans.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Morning Call: Clinton +3 on: Today at 06:01:56 am
Don't forget NE PA when discussing "rust belt PA". 


This actually makes a lot more sense in the context of the county polling we have scene.

Luzerne (15+), Lehigh Valley (+12 extrapolating from Northampton to Lehigh County) and Bucks (-4)

Granted the last one was all of PA-08, but most of that is Bucks County and the part that is not, is the Republican bits of Montco (yes that Montco).

I heard someone mention a poll showing Trump up in Erie County but I have not seen that anywhere.

There is just no way that leads like that translate to Clinton +8. She is not doing massively better than Obama in Bucks (He won it by 2 I think). Trump can afford a slight underperformance in the SE as long as he doesn't get killed there, because he is doing so much better than Romney elsewhere in the state. Clinton can abandon the rest of the state save Allegheny and still win off of the SE alone, but not by 8 unless she is truly winning it by 30% like some polls suggested at one point, but there is reason to think that point has passed as of this juncture.

If Johnson is ebbing to Trump, than that would most likely be in two places I would think (Lancaster and Chester counties as well as the Philly burbs at large), places where Trump would struggle with colledge educated Republicans.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Morning Call - Toomey + 1 on: Today at 02:28:18 am
Come on Pat!!!


You can do it!
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Siren, Speaker of the South (I-PR) (Not Running for Re-Election) on: Today at 02:12:32 am
Will you stay active in Atlasia?

You could be the first female President.


"#I'mWithHer"?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-02-Normington Petts: Trump +4 on: Today at 12:35:30 am
could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

Well, rural New England+NY's North Country is the only area that has resisted this trend over the past 20 years. In fact, it's a lot more Democratic now than it used to be not so long ago. It's possible that this trend will begin reversing itself in 2016, but I still have reasonable hopes that this one holdout will continue resisting.

Well its about damn time, I say. I hope it reaches Vermont in 10 years or so.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Healthcare Congressional Committee on: September 24, 2016, 11:54:31 pm
This is what happened in 2014. There was a massive committee equivalent push back in early 2014 that fizzled because everyone wanted something different. Eventually, once interest had died, was when I finally picked up the pieces, got the power brokers together and pushed through a bill before any of the nay sayers could block it in the name of single payer or whatever.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Tmthforu94 for Atlasia on: September 24, 2016, 10:55:02 pm
Enthusiastically Endorsed!!! Smiley
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Leadership Elections) on: September 24, 2016, 10:53:05 pm
I am seeing the withdrawals of Senator Tmthforu94 from the Chairman race, dfwlibertylover for Vice Chair, and Enduro for Vice Chair.


The election will therefore commence immediately.


Chairman:
(  ) North Carolina Yankee

Vice Chairman:
(  ) Leinad

This election will last for 72 hours and is open to all Federalist Party Members.

As soon as this is over with I will move to adjorn this convention at reconvene at a specified city on September 30th, 2016. I realize this is not the normal process, and if anyone objects to the city they can object to the motion within a reasonable time frame (24 hours probably).

This will be the October 2016 Convention where we will hopefully nominate a winning ticket led by Senator Tmthforu94 and proceed with the the necessary mechanisms for winning this election (those few that are not already in motion as most already are).
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Platform Discussion) on: September 24, 2016, 10:46:43 pm
I am hereby rescinding Leinad's authorization to administer this convention.

Nothing against Leinad, but I have come to realize that people are indeed correct and that I have been far too passive, far too laid back and far too mellow.

It is time I reintroduce this forum to the Yankee of old. The audacious son of a bitch, who never takes no for an answer and who refuses to stop until the opposition's guts are hanging from the trees. Crazy Yankee, is back!

Now for a little bit of truth.

Contrary to popular false narratives, I actually did everything in my power to avert the loss in August. I was on the Monday before (I can prove this) and the Sunday of the election (I can prove this also). Most of the less active members were contacted, and as the election came down we lost by one vote. It is true that I did have to work a six day schedule over election weekend, but I managed to be present on Sunday thanks to a work related injury (Lord works in Mysterious Ways). However, no one had any detailed counts available. Thankfully Santander did his best to provide us with a count but it was done using the wrong counting method and had to be redone at the last minute. It also didn't have down ballot preferences and therefore last minute votes were cast with a clear eye of how that vote would interact with the rest of the field. This is not Santander's fault, but more experienced member's could have filled this gap that I had made a point to reference the week prior. Lesson for the wise, power of suggestion is worthless. It is probably necessary to be more direct.

So what did I do next.

The day after (not two weeks or a month later, the next morning), I wrote an autopsy with a detailed list of things to do to avoid that result in October. Most of our active members have seen it. If anyone has not and would like to, I will fix that problem. I had the schedule all along, and we are now ahead of schedule on most every count. These schedules have also been shown to most active members. If any member would like to see this autopsy or the implementation schedule, I will make it available. That being said, there is one area that is fast coming up that will require mass involvement and that is candidates for the People's House. If you are interested in running please let me, President Leinad and Senator Tmthforu94 know as soon as possible.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Siren, Speaker of the South (I-PR) (Not Running for Re-Election) on: September 24, 2016, 12:07:50 pm
I look forward to your future endeavors. Smiley


The South was well served by having such a good Speaker at a critical juncture post reform.
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Healthcare Congressional Committee on: September 24, 2016, 11:16:32 am
It is very tough to address an issue like this, even with a large committee format.


I'll assist to the extent practical once again, if the committee so desires it.


15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HB 2016-1035 - End Selective Service Act on: September 24, 2016, 10:58:24 am
Good! I will be very glad to sign this. The draft was a horrid period in our history, and eliminating selective service will ensure that practice remains nothing more than a dark relic of Atlasia's past.

I think this is a very good idea, but we should possibly have a backup in case of WWIII.

Never. Compulsive military service is always wrong.

Reminds me of when I used to go round and round with first Libertas and then Napoleon on this issue in 2010 and then 2011. Good Times.

I hate the draft as much as anybody, but you never know what can happen and keeping it for unforeseen emergencies has always struck me as the prudent course.

If we need to fight, we'll fight. Selective service will be used for the continuation of unpopular wars that the government shouldn't got in in the first place.

That is a good point, but even that didn't stop the gov't from pushing the overburdened all volunteer force to the breaking point to continue Iraq for so long.
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SB 2016-004: Senate Rules and Procedures on: September 24, 2016, 10:49:48 am
- Should a bill be allowed to have multiple sponsors in the same house?  If we adopt the old Amendment rules, how should this affect the amendment process?

Theoretically speaking, you would need to have a primary or main sponsor would make decisions regarding the amendments, with all co-sponsors just being a formality. Otherwise it would get chaotic.

Tmth is right though, plus at points the number of bills might dip for a variety of reasons and thus refusing bills from another house on grounds of lack of sponsorship in the other one, would be counterproductive.
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HB 2016-1035 - End Selective Service Act on: September 24, 2016, 10:40:16 am
Good! I will be very glad to sign this. The draft was a horrid period in our history, and eliminating selective service will ensure that practice remains nothing more than a dark relic of Atlasia's past.

I think this is a very good idea, but we should possibly have a backup in case of WWIII.

Never. Compulsive military service is always wrong.

Reminds me of when I used to go round and round with first Libertas and then Napoleon on this issue in 2010 and then 2011. Good Times.

I hate the draft as much as anybody, but you never know what can happen and keeping it for unforeseen emergencies has always struck me as the prudent course.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC SEN - PPP - TIE on: September 24, 2016, 10:31:05 am
Ironically, I think Pat McCrory is clearly doing more damage to the GOP in NC than Trump is, but I'm sure the usual suspects will be quick to deny.

I won't deny that - there's a lot of military people in North Carolina that might like Trump's whole tough talk and expansion of the military while sort of liking gay and trans people and a government that works (Trump's pragmatism on infrastructure and women's health, for example), which McCrory and the legislature has been opposed to from the start.

Anyways here's to hoping that Cooper does well enough to carry Ross with him.

Considering where McCrory was in 2008 and even to some extent, in 2012, that is the ultimate of ironies.

But the statement is undeniable, while Trump has problems the NC GOP has undoubtedly been crippled.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Survey Atlasia: September People's House Approval Ratings on: September 24, 2016, 03:30:22 am
This poll will run for five days and is for all registered voters.


For the first time since reform, Survey Atlasia is Back!
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Survey Atlasia: September Senate Approval Ratings on: September 24, 2016, 03:28:36 am
This poll will run for five days and is for all registered voters.


For the first time since reform, Survey Atlasia is Back!
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Survey Atlasia: September Presidential Aproval Ratings on: September 24, 2016, 03:26:47 am
This poll will run for five days and is for all registered voters.


For the first time since reform, Survey Atlasia is Back!
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Platform Discussion) on: September 23, 2016, 02:47:57 am
Same old song, same old tune. It seems like the very thing that makes it possible for me to even be on here at all, is crippling my functional abilities beyond comprehension. And it is making me depressed, because there is litterally nothing I can do anymore that I enjoy.

I am tired of my life being dominated by a job I detest, forcing any and all other things both on here and off of here to the side. I go until I pass out and I have nothing, no one and no plausible way out.

I made a critical miscalculation back in late July after my leave. I relied too heavily on a filtered overview of events provided to me on chat and not enough on the site as whole. This made me detached from events on the ground and dependent on the partial, incomplete and potentially even biased information I was receiving. When college started back up for so many people, their availability changed and mine did not (to the extent that it did made the situation worse) making it impossible for us to get on at the same time. I didn't connect the dots fast enough, but this should have pushed me back towards a realistic approach rather than trying to run things at arms length.

Two weeks ago, things came to a head, when critical decisions had to be made and lacking knowledge on the ground and lacking my usually group of consultants, I became thoroughly stressed out to an unhealthy extent. As a reasult, I missed a handful of opportunities to get on, only to find that such procrastination proved devastating since subsequent opportunities didn't materialize. It didn't help that this occured against the backdrop of another injury at work and also losing my own internet access over the past weekend and early part of this week.

Prior to about mid August, I was pursuing a more hands off approach generally both because I wanted to give Leinad the room to govern as President and didn't want to undermine him the way that Griffin so often did so with his Presidents. One big mistake was not discussing in June how that relationship between the White house and the Party would function. Soon after, it became clear that delegating leadership to Leinad was counterproductive, precisely for the reason I mistakenly desired go that route in the first place, that is the need for him to act independently for the good of the country, which sometimes created divisions. My concern was the correct one, the answer was the complete opposite of what it should have been though and that is my mistake not Leinad's.

Irregardless of that, the main problem here stemmed from my work and a string of incredibly bad luck. Keeing with that vein, I am running out of time and energy fast tonight and though I have yet to make a firm decision. I am going to declare at least tentatively for chairman as the chances of me discussing the matter, and then getting on and posting before the deadline are rather slim.   
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: September 23, 2016, 01:49:57 am
Now there is something I never expected to see happen.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Public Office of the Leinad/Lumine Administration - Announcement on: September 23, 2016, 01:07:51 am
That went by far too quickly. Sad
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: dfwlibertylover for Senator! on: September 23, 2016, 12:49:55 am
Endorsed. Smiley
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