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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Romney's Biggest Mistake on: Today at 06:06:30 am
There is no way for a Republican to win running Bush 2000/2004 style.

To win back upscale suburbs, they would have to abandon social conservatism wholesale. To win Trump style, you just have to tone it down or slightly alter the messaging.

Which do you think the GOP is going to nominate?

Immigration had next to nothing to do with Romney's loss, outside of maybe Florida. Ratchet up the Hispanic vote to 70% for Romney and he still loses the election.

The working class swing vote is what decides these elections.

In 2007, Romney criticized trade deals. In the 2011, he said illegal immigration hurts jobs and lowers wages. In 2013, he endorsed a $9 minimum wage.

Why didn't he make this case in Ohio August-October 2012? He had no problem saying it in a GOP primary or after the election.

Take a look at the Ohio map. Winning Republicans do better than pluralities in South central OH and 50s in NW Ohio. These are not "Working class Democrats". These are ancestrally Republican areas, at least NW Ohio is. Unlike South Central Kentucky, they are not going to just hand you 70% just for being there. Trump got 65% in those rural NW OH counties, 60% in South Central OH counties (that Romney couldn't get to 50%) and going back to NW OH, he flipped Ottawa, Wood and Sandusky counties.

You don't win those votes by peddling more tax cuts. Even the small business owners, while appreciative of low taxes/regulations, realize the main problem is that Ford shut down the auto plant and now there is no customer base.

That is why Trump won many of the same voters that Romney did in the Michigan Primary, while Cruz got some of Santorum's vote. Trump also got some of the Santorum vote and Kasich got the rest of Romney's.


2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Romney's Biggest Mistake on: Today at 05:44:57 am
The problem is Romney like Hillary was badly damaged in the primaries especially by Newt Gingrich and the 20 debates.


To make up for that Romney should have done this


1. Choose Marco Rubio has his VP
2. Bring up the Reagan recovery more and compare it to the Obama recovery
3. Dont say the 47% comment
4. On immigration , remind people that Obama had a filibuster proof majority and didnt do anything, and his immigration policy is PRO LEGAL IMMIGRANT(which it was)
5. Put obama on the defensive

-How does that help him win Ohio, a state which is now (probably ludicrously) considered a solid Republican state by the denizens of Atlas?

To make up for his weaknesses, Romney shouldn't have bothered with his cutsey business conservative/Bushian message. He should have discarded it for the garbage it was. People saw him as an out-of-touch elitist. He should have brushed up on his populist cred.

Populist cred caused Trump to lose votes compared to Romney (compare Trump's 45.9% to Romney's 47.2%); he simply got lucky that Hillary declined from Obama as well. (Though Trump '16 compared to Obama '12 does do slightly better in the electoral vote; Trump gains Ohio and only drops NE-2). Romney's platform had more support from the voters than Trump's.

The problem with this analysis is that it fails to account for the third parties pulling votes away from both parties. Also, the EC switches don't make sense, since in Florida, Trump and Clinton both out performed Obama and Romney. Also there were a substantial number of Obama to Trump voters in PA and IA, so assuming that they flipped likewise, it is fairly likely that the 20,000 in PA and 22,000 in IA, that make up the rest of the difference between Obama 2012 and Trump 2016, would already be a part of Trump's 2,970,000 votes in PA and 800,000 in IA, thus flipping both states. Of course that is a hypothetical, but you are already comparing Trump 2016 to Obama 2012, so it is just extending that to states and in states such as those where the voting population is stable or declining, the game is vote flips.

2012
Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   65,918,507   51.01%   332   61.7%
Willard Mitt Romney    Paul Ryan          Republican   60,934,407   47.15%   206   38.3%

2016
Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   62,985,106   45.94%   304   56.5%
Hillary Clinton            Tim Kaine          Democratic   65,853,625   48.03%   227   42.2%

Two Party %
2012: 52%-48%
2016: 51%-49%

Trump cut Romney's PV deficit in half almost.

Florida  Trump +500,000 over Romney
Romney 4,163,447
Trump 4,617,886

NC  Trump +100,000 over Romney
Romney 2,270,395
Trump 2,362,631

Ohio  Trump +200,000 over Romney
Romney 2,661,437
Trump 2,841,005

PA  Trump +300,000 over Romney
Romney 2,680,434
Trump 2,970,733

MI  Trump +150,000 over Romney
Romney 2,115,256
Trump 2,279,543

WI Romney +2,000 over Trump
Romney 1,407,966
Trump 1,405,284

IA  Trump +70,000 votes over Romney
Romney 730,617   
Trump 800,983

Trump lost votes compared to Romney in CA, TX, and GA. But not in New York:

NY  Trump +330,000 over Romney
Romney 2,490,496
Trump 2,819,534
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-01: If Paul Ryan retires, who runs for his seat? on: Today at 04:35:27 am
I don't think Nehlen would get it, because of the strength of the WI machine. But this is certainly a district that would elect a populist Republican.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: N&O: Veto override in North Carolina means judicial elections are now partisan on: Today at 04:34:04 am
I am so fing done with this state.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: East Chicago CRISIS: Mayor Anthony Copland kicking families out due to lead. on: Today at 04:20:39 am
They literally live in a side of town built on a closed down lead processing plant, the soil in those 300+ acres is contaminated

Its like that canal in Buffalo that was filled up with toxic waste, covered, developed and 30 years later "oh sh**t, we got kids getting cancer and there is something leaching out on the Elementary School Playground". That was in the late 70's.

This is all across the rust belt in one form or another. A product of pre-regulation industrialization and development of stuff using materials that were toxic (like lead pipe, asbestos insulation, etc). And typically the "oh crap, we built a school on toxic waste" is made years prior and buried for a long time until the truth is found out. 

In North Binghamton, NY, there is a plaza that was built on a garbage waste dump in the 1960's. For the last 30 years or so, it's anchor was K-Mart. Apparently, there were toxic vapors emanating up from the numerous pot holes in the parking lot in the early 2010's. Anyway, it doesn't matter now because K-Mart closed that store in December. I know we went there a lot in the 1990's and early 2000's.

And of course in Endicott, NY there is a giant plume of waste underneath a substantial number of residential homes, that came from IBM's operations in the area.

6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New generation of the GOP? on: Today at 04:05:27 am
I still think the GOP doesn't know what kind of party it is yet. Paul Ryan governs like the base is still in Oakland County but the GOP base is in Macomb now.  
This might be a dumb question but what is the difference between governing as an Oakland County, MI party vs a Macomb County, MI type party? I have read that Oakland is Socially Moderate as opposed to Macomb I think.

It is similar to a comment that I have made several times. That the Reagan coalition was built at a time when Orange and DuPage county were part of the GOP base, but the GOP base is now a lower middle and working class (non-college white) demographic in the St. Louis or Louisville suburbs.

And yes Paul Ryan does not get it, which is not surprising, but truth be told there are tens of thousands of this demographic in his district that he is frankly out of step with.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 538: Americans’ Shift To The Suburbs Sped Up Last Year on: Today at 03:53:52 am
I'm guessing this shift is being caused by older millennials (1980-1988) settling down and starting families?

This might be good news for Republicans in 2020. I believe that conservatives become politically active later in life compared to liberals and that this point usually starts with when they start settling down and have a family.



Uh no, this is anything but good news for Republicans.  See Loudon and Prince William County, VA voting patterns over the last 20 years for more.
NOVA is socially liberal like the rest of the Northeast States that's why its voting for Dems.

Now Virginia is part of the "Northeast" - my how times have changed.  What happens when the Atlanta suburbs start pushing the state blue, will the Northeast just extend all the way to Florida?
The proper thing to say is that the Upper South suburban areas are trending Dem (see: Baltimore-DC corridor, also NoVa).

So are various suburbs in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
Yes, true.
My main point though was that 'Northeast' is a term too many people define to cover a too-large area.  Fairfax County is still culturally distinct from Vermont, despite its Democratic trend. To pretend they are in the same region, with all due respect to those who agree with that statement, is utterly laughable.

As these trends continue, it will be less appropriate to even refer to the "Northeast" as a political unit anymore.

The Areas trending GOP form an L shape from Maine, to Minnesota, to Louisiana.

Granted things can change, but I see pockets of GOP strength forming as it is.
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Survey Atlasia National HQ -Nyman, DC (President Yankee @ 74% Approval) on: Today at 03:39:56 am
February Cabinet Approval Ratings
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259658.0

In your opinion, how have these Cabinet officials been performing their jobs?
Approve - Vice Prez Rpryor03       7 (12.5%)
Disapprove - Vice Prez Rpryor03       3 (5.4%)
Approve - SoI Truman       6 (10.7%)
Disapprove - SoI Truman       3 (5.4%)
Approve - GM Kalwejt       5 (8.9%)
Disapprove - GM Kalwejt       4 (7.1%)
Approve - SoFE Peebs       8 (14.3%)
Disapprove - SoFE Peebs       1 (1.8%)
Approve - SoS TedBessell       8 (14.3%)
Disapprove - SoS TedBessell       2 (3.6%)
Approve - RG Peebs       9 (16.1%)
Disapprove - RG Peebs       -0 (0%)

Total Voters: 10

Vice Prez Rpryor03
Approve: 70%
Disapprove:  30%

SoI Truman
Approve: 67%
Disapprove:  33%

GM kalwejt
Approve: 55%
Disapprove:  45%

SoFE Peebs
Approve:  88%
Disapprove:  12%

SoS TedBessell
Approve: 80%
Disapprove   20%

RG Peebs
Approve: 100%
Disapprove:   0%
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Survey Atlasia National HQ -Nyman, DC (President Yankee @ 74% Approval) on: Today at 03:34:40 am
February Regional Executive Approval Ratings
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=260753.0

In your opinion, how has your regional executive performed his job?
Approve - Governor Mike Wells (LAB-NY)       4 (23.5%)
Disapprove - Governor Mike Wells (LAB-NY)       1 (5.9%)
Approve - Prime Minister Truman (LAB-ND)       6 (35.3%)
Disapprove - Prime Minister Truman (LAB-ND)       0 (0%)
Approve - Governor Dfwlibertylover (F-TX)       4 (23.5%)
Disapprove - Governor Dfwlibertylover (F-TX)       2 (11.8%)

Total Voters: 17

Governor Mike Wells (LAB-NY)
Approve: 80%
Disapprove:   20%

Prime Minister Truman (LAB-ND)
Approve:  100%
Disapprove:      0%

Governor dfwlibertylover
Approve:  67%
Disapprove: 33%
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: February 2017 Federalist Convention (Southern Senate: Leinad wins Primary) on: Today at 03:19:50 am
Federalist Primary Results
Fairbol (F-FL) 1   14%
Leinad (F-GA) 6  86%



Leinad is hereby nominated as the Federalist Candidate in the April Southern Senate elections.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: Voting Rights Amendment (Debating) on: Today at 03:04:35 am
The amendment has been adopted.


So can we try again for a final vote? Wink
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: "The Four is not Enough" Amendment (Debating) on: Today at 02:54:31 am
Quote from: Amendment H5:18 by NC Yankee
A RESOLUTION
To amend the constitution so as impeachments are heard and tried fairly, by establishing a proper threshold and procedure for such in the Atlasian Congress


Be it resolved in both houses of Congress assembled and ratified by two-thirds of the Regions

Title: "Impeachment of Federal Officers" Amendment

Section 1. Article III, Section 2 of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended to strike in its entirety the fifth clause thereof, and all successive clauses shall be renumbered accordingly.

Section 2. Article III, Section 3 of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended to strike in its entirety the fifth clause thereof, and all successive clauses shall be renumbered accordingly.

Section 3. Article III, Section 6 of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended as follows:

Quote
Section 6 (Powers)
[...]
xv. To impeach the President, Vice President, Justices and Associate Justices of the Supreme Court, and other officers of this government for high grimes and gross negligence.

Section 4. Article III of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended to read as follows:

Quote
ARTICLE III
[...]
Section 7 (Impeachment)
i. Whenever a majority of the members of Congress should resolve to indict an officer of this Republic for high crimes or gross negligence under the Constitution and laws thereof, there shall be immediately convened a Trial of Impeachment before the whole body of Congress.
ii. In all Trials of Impeachment, the Chief Justice shall preside, save when he himself is the officer to be tried, in which event the presiding officer of the Senate shall assume such post.
iii. When voting to convict or acquit the indicted officer, the vote of each Senator shall be counted thrice, and the vote of each Representative counted twice, such that the vote of every Representative shall be equal to two thirds the vote of every Senator. A sum of twenty-two votes, so counted, shall be sufficient to convict the indicted officer.
iv. In all cases, the penalty for conviction shall be removal from office and disqualification from any office under the Republic of Atlasia for a period not exceeding two years.

Section 8 (Restrictions)

i. The privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended, except when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it.
ii. No Bill of Attainder or ex post facto law shall be passed.
iii. No tax or duty shall be laid on articles exported from any Region.
iv. No money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in accordance with the apportionments made by law.
v. No title of nobility shall be granted by the Republic of Atlasia, and accordingly no person holding office under this Constitution shall accept any title, rank, or office from any foreign state except in accordance with federal law.

Sponsor Feedback: Origination
Status: Representatives have 24 hours to object.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HB 1094 - Ending the Embargo of Cuba Act (EECA) (Final Vote) on: Today at 02:51:27 am
Don't forget to move this bill to the House passed list and also the list for legislation passing both chambers.

also add the NSA bill to the house passed list as well.
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: Resolution for Freedom and Democracy in Turkey (Debating) on: Today at 02:48:00 am
The sponsor has 24 hours to begin advocating for this, lest it be "suppressed". Tongue
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / HOUSE RESOLUTION: Resolution for Freedom and Democracy in Turkey (Debating) on: Today at 02:46:06 am
Quote
A Resolution
to condemn anti-democratic practices
and to call for freedom and civil liberties
in the Republic of Turkey

Be it resolved, in both houses of Congress Assembled,

Quote
SECTION 1. TITLE

1. The title of this resolution shall be “Resolution for Freedom and Democracy in Turkey.”

SECTION 1. THE CURRENT STATE

1. The Republic of Atlasia …

I. … condemns the constitutional reform that aims to abolish the separation of powers and to grant the president disproportionate power.
II. … condemns the current restriction of freedom of speech and press and condemns the imprisonment of numerous journalists.
III. … views the government's behavior in international affairs with great concerns and worries about the diplomatic relationships between the Republic of Turkey and the international community.
IV. … condemns the method of campaigning in foreign countries before an election or before a referendum.

SECTION 2. PROPOSALS AND FUTURE ACTION

1. The Republic of Atlasia calls for a reintroduction of the constitution approved on the 12th of September 2010.
2. The Republic of Atlasia demands an apology of the Turkish government for their unacceptable comments accusing the European countries of fascist and Nazi methods.
3. The Republic of Atlasia will work with the international community to push for the haphazard imprisonments of Turkish journalists critical of the government.
4. The Republic of Atlasia demands the end of the oppression of the HDP and their elected representatives.
5. The Republic of Atlasia will immediately stop all arms exports to the Republic of Turkey and recommends all members of the international community to do so.
6. The Republic of Atlasia recommends the European Union to cancel the accession negotiations with the Republic of Turkey immediately.
Atlasian People's House of Representatives
pending

Sponsor: Simossad
House Designation: HR 1100
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HB 1096 - Federal Electoral Holiday Act (Final Vote) on: Today at 02:37:05 am
Going to go ahead and prep the text:

Quote
House Bill
To end the status of Columbus Day as a Federal Holiday, replace it with a holiday honoring Indigenous Peoples, and also to make Election day a Federal Holiday

Be it enacted in both Houses of Congress Assembled,

Quote
Federal Electoral Holiday Act

Section I. Purpose and Meaning

Columbus Day is hereby abolished as a Federal Holiday. Instead, on the date of October 9th, the Federal Government shall recognize the Indigenous Peoples of Atlasia through a yearly resolution honoring their contributions to the lands, and recognizing their unjust deaths at the hands of colonists.

All dates where Federal Elections are held are hereby established as Federal Holidays. Citizens are hereby granted the right to miss up to 4 (four) hours of a work day in order to vote. Employers shall not infringe upon this right by punishment of legal action taken by individual states or regions.

Section II. Enactment

I. This legislation shall be enacted immediately upon passage.

Atlasian Regional Senate
Passed 6-0 in the Atlasian Senate assembled
Be it resolved, X Senator PiT, PPT

Atlasian People's House of Representatives
Passed x-y in the Atlasian House Assembled,

17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HB 1096 - Federal Electoral Holiday Act (Final Vote) on: Today at 02:34:03 am
AYE
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE BILL: The Dfwlibertylover Minimum Wage Act of 2017 (Tabling Vote!) on: Today at 02:30:09 am
A Vote is now open on the Motion to Table, Representatives please vote, Aye, Nay or Abstain.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE BILL: The Dfwlibertylover Minimum Wage Act of 2017 (Debating) on: Today at 02:25:21 am
NeverAgain, Truman, and I are working on an alternative that will nationally adjust based on cost of living and other indexing factors along with EITC added in.

Thus for now, I am tabling/withdrawing this bill (Ted and/or OneJ please do this on my behalf)

I look forward to this approach.
20  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: Today at 02:14:26 am
It's just important to point out Eharding has a campaign going in Atlasia and if it doesn't hurt anyone he should be permitted to post stuff as part of that campaign.

Reminds of when Jedi and Gustaf were deleting all of Hamilton's posts on sight, including posts in the NE Assembly.

21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: Judiciary Term Limit Amendment (At Final Vote) on: Today at 01:18:14 am
This has enough votes to fail, Representatives have 24 hours to change their votes.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE BILL: The Research Grant Process and Oversight Act (Debating) on: Today at 01:17:34 am
I move for a final vote.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: "The Four is not Enough" Amendment (Debating) on: Today at 01:07:13 am
Quote from: Amendment Offered for Truman
A RESOLUTION
To amend the constitution so as impeachments are heard and tried fairly, by establishing a proper threshold and procedure for such in the Atlasian Congress


Be it resolved in both houses of Congress assembled and ratified by two-thirds of the Regions

Title: "Impeachment of Federal Officers" Amendment

Section 1. Article III, Section 2 of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended to strike in its entirety the fifth clause thereof, and all successive clauses shall be renumbered accordingly.

Section 2. Article III, Section 3 of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended to strike in its entirety the fifth clause thereof, and all successive clauses shall be renumbered accordingly.

Section 3. Article III, Section 6 of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended as follows:

Quote
Section 6 (Powers)
[...]
xv. To impeach the President, Vice President, Justices and Associate Justices of the Supreme Court, and other officers of this government for high grimes and gross negligence.

Section 4. Article III of the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia shall be amended to read as follows:

Quote
ARTICLE III
[...]
Section 7 (Impeachment)
i. Whenever a majority of the members of Congress should resolve to indict an officer of this Republic for high crimes or gross negligence under the Constitution and laws thereof, there shall be immediately convened a Trial of Impeachment before the whole body of Congress.
ii. In all Trials of Impeachment, the Chief Justice shall preside, save when he himself is the officer to be tried, in which event the presiding officer of the Senate shall assume such post.
iii. When voting to convict or acquit the indicted officer, the vote of each Senator shall be counted thrice, and the vote of each Representative counted twice, such that the vote of every Representative shall be equal to two thirds the vote of every Senator. A sum of twenty-two votes, so counted, shall be sufficient to convict the indicted officer.
iv. In all cases, the penalty for conviction shall be removal from office and disqualification from any office under the Republic of Atlasia for a period not exceeding two years.

Section 8 (Restrictions)

i. The privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended, except when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it.
ii. No Bill of Attainder or ex post facto law shall be passed.
iii. No tax or duty shall be laid on articles exported from any Region.
iv. No money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in accordance with the apportionments made by law.
v. No title of nobility shall be granted by the Republic of Atlasia, and accordingly no person holding office under this Constitution shall accept any title, rank, or office from any foreign state except in accordance with federal law.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Harding for Northern Assembly- Campaign Office on: Today at 01:02:41 am
This is tough, I'm not the biggest Harding fan, but I feel his ban was wrongful. I'll probably vote for him
I don't see how his banning has anything to do with Atlasia. Congress didn't vote to mute him, and I doubt the mods care about Assembly elections. If you're looking for a right-leaning candidate to vote for, I'd recommend someone like RGN08, who manages to represent conservative values without scattering his platform with extremist views (like a tax on unmarried people, for instance).

He's a candidate who can't campaign, and I don't think the ban is fair therefore it does bleed into our wonderful land.

This was actually a big problem. The difference here is that the incidents in 2015 involved alleged actions that were presumed to be true until proven false (JoMCar) or a disproportionate reaction to a level of involvement in deeply disturbing behavior that did not warrant such action (Adam). JoMCar was a NE assemblyman at the time, Adam was Registrar General.

JoMCar's was immediately reversed, Adam was forced to eat a two week ban. Both were disruptions at a time that Atlasia could ill afford.

Regardless, forum administration is a superior concern to that of Atlasian considerations. So therefore a moderator is not going to defer on something because it might effect the game, and likewise the game has no power to respond in anyway.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE BILL: Presidential Succession Act of 2017 (At Final Vote) on: Today at 12:36:30 am
AYE
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