Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 20, 2014, 11:33:31 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 618 619 620 621 622 [623] 624 625 626 627 628 ... 1212
15551  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Anti-Conscription Amendment [Voting on Amendment #3] on: February 15, 2012, 07:57:44 pm
I am going to re-offer the Polnut amendment without the last Sentence about frontline capacity.

Quote
Anti-Conscription Amendment

The Republic of Atlasia shall not conscript or enforce conscription of any citizen unless there is a land invasion of the Atlasian homeland by a sovereign government. In the event of such an attack, conscription must only be used on citizens at least eighteen years of age, and must allow exemptions for conscientious objectors, the infirm or otherwise disabled, those already enrolled in a higher education institution at the time conscription begins, or heads of single parent households.


We already voted on this exact same amendment before Polnut's.

Is there a reason why the vote should turn out differently this time?

I can think of two reasons why someone would want to reintroduce the amendment.

I actually have 5 reasons, but what two did you think of? Tongue
15552  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: Hoekstra going down in flames on: February 15, 2012, 07:05:02 pm
Terri Lynn Land would be a much better candidate, although I don't think she would get over 45%. Mike Cox would be the next best(but not that good of a candidate). Both have been elected statewide twice. Amash would have to give up his congressional seat for a longshot chance at a senate seat. He would be foolish to give up a safe house seat.

I didn't think Hoekstra had a chance before this ad ran. Too conservative. I think Stabenow is underestimated. She is not going to lose to anything other than a first rate candidate, even then it would be close barring a another recession, and the republicans don't have a first rate candidate. She is a good fit for Michigan. I think she would have won vs Land in 2010 too. Michigan doesn't send republicans to the senate. I could see Stabenow as senator for Michigan for a long time.


Spencer Abraham?   

The problem with MI has been timing. Levin is too popular to take out in any year. 2000, the state was won by Gore and in 2006, it was a bad GOP year.
15553  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 15, 2012, 06:56:30 pm
In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?



Under my rules for a fair map (similar to MI) there should be a district entirely within Erie. That forces Buffalo into the district entirely within Erie so it couldn't link to Niagara Falls. I assume that anyone mapping them linked was doing so to make a stronger R district. As it is, I ended up with an R+5 including Niagara Falls, and R+6 for the 200 K remainder of Erie so it's not that bad for the GOP.

I was thinking more in terms of a CA style mapping rather than a MI style map which many argue isn't that fair. As such partisan considersations were completely irrelevant and my primary concern was whether Niagara Falls had a better justification for being in an urban seat with Buffalo, then a bunch of rural Erie precincts.

Actually the MI rules worked very well in the 1980 and 90 remaps. They were so well-regarded that MI codified them. However they didn't put in any tests for partisan bias, since the issue hadn't occurred. When a single party had control the lack of a cross check allowed the rules to be bent to partisan advantage.

Certainly one could make a CA style judgement that NF should be with Buffalo and then draw a map accordingly. It will strengthen the adjacent GOP districts and make the area less competitive. I think that those type of judgement calls can lead to problems as well as seen in AZ this year.

So basically a gerrymander that doesn't look like a gerrymander. Even with the lipstick, the pig is still a pig. Tongue In my opinion, a fair map isn't what machine hack Repub and machine hack dem in a back room in Albany agree to scratch onto a map with their crayons. Therefore I don't think we can rely on bipartisan agreements to achieve the desired results. You can only do so much to leesh a legislature with standards, as MI proves and in FL is proving this time. Independent Non-Partisan Redistricting>Legislaitive Redistricting.

Whether it is your map or the one Torie did (if I recall it had a Buffalo seat then a Niagara Co. to PA seat surronding it), the question one has to ask is that "is it fair to put Niagara Falls, an urban area, into a district where it will be swamped by rural voters in a belt from Lake Ontario to PA, or place it into a district that would share similar urban rust belt issues, as it would with the city of Buffalo.

The MI standards came from the special master (Bernie Apol) appointed in the 80s, so they weren't the work of a bipartisan agreement. The bipartisan agreement was to codify the standards in 1999, thinking that they would tie the hands of whichever party might control the map in 2001. They failed to anticipate how far their geographic standards could be twisted. I would have no problem handing the MI standards to an independent commission, since that is essentially how Apol did his work. I just think that independent commissions can benefit from precise standards that are set before they begin mapping.

Yes, Torie wrapped Niagara around Buffalo and I wrapped it around Rochester. I looked at the former and found a very nice combination of counties with minimal deviation, but I wasn't wild about the connector along the eastern edge of Erie. Since I could wrap Rochester with whole counties and minimal deviation I went that way, but either path is a valid solution.

Niagara county didn't even give 50% to Obama. There are plenty of other upstate counties that have a strong Dem city in otherwise GOP turf. If Niagara should be split to link NF because of its interest, why not similar connections splitting counties throughout upstate?

I wasn't saying that it was the result of a bipartisan agreement. I said that it such relies on a bipartisan agreements to produce "fair" results, and even when such is the case, my point is I don't really trust say Joe Bruno and Sheldon Silver in 2001 to produce a reasonably "fair" result. Certainly a commission would have strict standards, that is the only way such a commission would work. My point is, they are more likely to do a better job than a legislative body.

I merely mentioned the differences in your maps in passing. Both are essentially the same with regards to this issue.

I am not really concerned with what gave Obama 50% versus 70% or whatever here. The issue regards a CA style remap and they don't consider such variables, unless I am mistaken.

The difference between Niagara and say Utica is this. Buffalo is considerably short of a district's population, as a city. Any such remap, as I am asking about, would start the district by including all of Buffalo, since there is no reason to split it other than political considerations of yore. Niagara Falls is right there, has many similarities and if avoiding county splits isn't that big of a concern when other more pressing issues occur, it stands to reason that putting it in with Buffalo would be a logical move should the local officials and community meetings reveal such a desire as being prevalent.
15554  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 North Carolina Senate Election on: February 14, 2012, 07:13:42 pm
Can we wait till 2012 is over before we start dwelling on the next elections?
15555  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Oil Spill Protection Act [At Final Vote] on: February 14, 2012, 06:44:46 pm
Aye

Since we are doing color codes on the votes now, and look, how fitting it be green. Tongue
15556  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Anti-Conscription Amendment [Voting on Amendment #3] on: February 14, 2012, 06:41:18 pm
I have several objectives for doing so.
15557  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Amendment to the Caucus Infrastructure and Formation Act [Debating] on: February 14, 2012, 06:35:42 pm
As I saw it, the original purpose of this legislation had merit, but the presence of on-ballot caucuses was and is a deal breaker for me. Irreconcilably Nay, here.
15558  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Repeal of the Do Not PM List Act [At Final Vote] on: February 14, 2012, 06:32:42 pm
Nay
15559  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Anti-Conscription Amendment [Voting on Amendment #3] on: February 14, 2012, 06:32:05 pm
I am going to re-offer the Polnut amendment without the last Sentence about frontline capacity.

Quote
Anti-Conscription Amendment

The Republic of Atlasia shall not conscript or enforce conscription of any citizen unless there is a land invasion of the Atlasian homeland by a sovereign government. In the event of such an attack, conscription must only be used on citizens at least eighteen years of age, and must allow exemptions for conscientious objectors, the infirm or otherwise disabled, those already enrolled in a higher education institution at the time conscription begins, or heads of single parent households.
15560  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: Hoekstra going down in flames on: February 14, 2012, 06:26:30 pm
Time for a new candidate. When is the filing deadline?


Please don't let this be the Katherine Harris of 2006, where everybody refuses to challenge the dud. They challenged him for Governor, and he lost. Someone please run! Bouchard, Land, Cox, anyone!

Ah Insky, you wouldn't happen to be anywhere close to age of 30 would you? Grin

Republicans likely werent winning this seat anyway with Obama likely winning again by 15+ points. 

Republicans weren't going to beat Bill Nelson in 2006, but they could have got to 44% or 45% though with a different candidate.
15561  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 14, 2012, 06:19:45 pm
The voter approval is the easy part. It is getting the corrupt idiots in Albany to vote away their job security insurance.
15562  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Why does anyone think nominating Jeb Bush could be anything but disasterous? on: February 14, 2012, 06:15:07 pm
Whoever has a plurality of delegates will be the GOP nominee. Having a majority will not be required. If a candidate does not secure a majority, the most likely case is the plurality winner being at the top of the ticket and the second place finisher being on the bottom of the ticket. The only exception would be a very close breaking of the delegates, like, 45-45-10, so whoever wants to cut a better deal with Ron Paul will be the nominee in that case. I would not bet on Santorum winning over Ron Paul.

Don't count on this working for Romney. He really wants to have 51%. If he needs to make a deal with paul, there is a chance that his delegates won't go along with any deal and that they might want to force it to a second vote to unlock the ninja delegates, that could screw Romney with several successive ballots bringing him fewer and fewer delegates.
15563  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: Hoekstra going down in flames on: February 14, 2012, 06:02:11 pm
Time for a new candidate. When is the filing deadline?


Please don't let this be the Katherine Harris of 2006, where everybody refuses to challenge the dud. They challenged him for Governor, and he lost. Someone please run! Bouchard, Land, Cox, anyone!

Ah Insky, you wouldn't happen to be anywhere close to age of 30 would you? Grin
15564  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 14, 2012, 05:56:29 pm
I hope Cuomo stands firm against both parties. Doesn't he have every incentive to kick it to the courts if the lines aren't to his liking?

How hard is it to amend the state constitution in NY?
15565  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 14, 2012, 05:41:45 pm
Dems should just let the GOP draw the state map in exchange for a Dem congress map. Don't see how they can make the senate safe in a D+10 state.

And why on earth would the GOP agree to that?

15566  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Indiana 2012 Gubernatorial Election. on: February 14, 2012, 03:32:00 pm
Pence probably wins, regardless.
15567  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney wins AZ by 4 points !!! on: February 14, 2012, 03:24:10 pm
Isn't it kind of early to be running tests on an election two weeks away? Tongue
15568  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MI PrimR: Rasmussen: Santorum by 3 on: February 14, 2012, 03:16:08 pm
It makes more sense that Santorum has a small lead than a huge lead. Romney has ties to MI, won in 2008 and has been running ads already.

It will be interesting to see how Romney runs his campaign in MI. Will he (and his SuperPAC) go all scorched earth to stop Santorum?

If he is smart, he will make a direct connection between his business experience and differential decision making versus Obama and how it would have lead to more jobs.

Also, he should get ahead of the "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" attack and turn it into a postive, rather than a negative.

He is giving an "economic speech" on the 24th in Michigan. It is said he will either release a new economic plan or reintroduce his previous one in more concise fashion.

He needs to stop assuming people will automatically link his soundbites to job creation, and instead state how it will create jobs.

The last thing he should do is make a firm link between the debt and long term job creation, because Obama will try to decouple and set them up against one another.
15569  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 14, 2012, 03:07:38 pm
In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?



Under my rules for a fair map (similar to MI) there should be a district entirely within Erie. That forces Buffalo into the district entirely within Erie so it couldn't link to Niagara Falls. I assume that anyone mapping them linked was doing so to make a stronger R district. As it is, I ended up with an R+5 including Niagara Falls, and R+6 for the 200 K remainder of Erie so it's not that bad for the GOP.

I was thinking more in terms of a CA style mapping rather than a MI style map which many argue isn't that fair. As such partisan considersations were completely irrelevant and my primary concern was whether Niagara Falls had a better justification for being in an urban seat with Buffalo, then a bunch of rural Erie precincts.

Actually the MI rules worked very well in the 1980 and 90 remaps. They were so well-regarded that MI codified them. However they didn't put in any tests for partisan bias, since the issue hadn't occurred. When a single party had control the lack of a cross check allowed the rules to be bent to partisan advantage.

Certainly one could make a CA style judgement that NF should be with Buffalo and then draw a map accordingly. It will strengthen the adjacent GOP districts and make the area less competitive. I think that those type of judgement calls can lead to problems as well as seen in AZ this year.

So basically a gerrymander that doesn't look like a gerrymander. Even with the lipstick, the pig is still a pig. Tongue In my opinion, a fair map isn't what machine hack Repub and machine hack dem in a back room in Albany agree to scratch onto a map with their crayons. Therefore I don't think we can rely on bipartisan agreements to achieve the desired results. You can only do so much to leesh a legislature with standards, as MI proves and in FL is proving this time. Independent Non-Partisan Redistricting>Legislaitive Redistricting.

Whether it is your map or the one Torie did (if I recall it had a Buffalo seat then a Niagara Co. to PA seat surronding it), the question one has to ask is that "is it fair to put Niagara Falls, an urban area, into a district where it will be swamped by rural voters in a belt from Lake Ontario to PA, or place it into a district that would share similar urban rust belt issues, as it would with the city of Buffalo.
15570  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 13, 2012, 06:24:53 pm
In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?



Under my rules for a fair map (similar to MI) there should be a district entirely within Erie. That forces Buffalo into the district entirely within Erie so it couldn't link to Niagara Falls. I assume that anyone mapping them linked was doing so to make a stronger R district. As it is, I ended up with an R+5 including Niagara Falls, and R+6 for the 200 K remainder of Erie so it's not that bad for the GOP.

I was thinking more in terms of a CA style mapping rather than a MI style map which many argue isn't that fair. As such partisan considersations were completely irrelevant and my primary concern was whether Niagara Falls had a better justification for being in an urban seat with Buffalo, then a bunch of rural Erie precincts.
15571  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MI: PPP: Santorum leads Romney by 15% on: February 13, 2012, 02:49:11 pm
If Romney doesn't win both MI and Ohio, he is in trouble. If he looses both, it is hard to see how he becomes the nominee.


@Torie
Romney can't keep running away from adversarial demographics. He has to find a way to get these people to want to vote for him, or he is finished.
15572  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 13, 2012, 02:28:06 pm
In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?

15573  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 12, 2012, 05:33:36 pm
Plus ultra safe seats tend to dum down incumbents and make them less strong politically.
15574  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: New York on: February 12, 2012, 05:02:58 pm
Does Hochul really need 55%+ or would 50% Obama or so be enough?


Also, what are discussions pertaining to Bob Turner's district? Have their been any leaks in that regard?
15575  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Santorum: Wife authored book line that radical feminism pressures women to work on: February 12, 2012, 04:48:46 pm
I actually watched this interview today and I think that Santorum's subsequent response was really good. That his concern was that women get negative pressure from their peers for deciding to forgo a career for the sake of the family, that his wife had personally had to deal with this, and that the book was aimed at saying that women who make that decision should receive the same affirmation for that decision that women recieve for putting career and advancement first. He said it wasn't a statement that women shouldn't seek employment or advancement and he also said that both his parents worked in the 1960's and that his mother made more than his father did at points.

Yes, Rick backtracked reasonably well. In his book he wanted to slam the feminists, but that was then, and now is now. Claiming he was unfamiliar with the content of his own book because his wife wrote it however, was just a bit much for me however. Thus I put up this thread!  Smiley

I don't recall him say that he couldn't remember "because his wife co-wrote the book". He did say his wife co-wrote the book, but I don't think it was in that context. He said it to try and refute the charge that the book was anti-women by bringing in his wife's personal story and the fact that she helped write it.
Pages: 1 ... 618 619 620 621 622 [623] 624 625 626 627 628 ... 1212


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines