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15551  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your top 3 senate races you most care about on election night? on: November 04, 2012, 02:36:03 pm
I find the comments made by the OP to be just as disturbing in some cases as the comments made by these self destructing candidates.


1. Nevada - Dean Heller is a capable, sane and honest man who I tend to agree with on most issues that I care about. He has also ran a good campaign and I hope he is able to hold on, even as Romney losses the state.

2. Arizona - Jeff Flake is someone that I watched in the House for years and was impressed by his both his committment to principle and his willingness to tell the Delay-Hastert GOP leadership team to shove it, sideways. I think that he is someone who will be able to bridge a gap with a lot of Libertarian leaning Republicans and that is something the Republican party needs to do going forward.

3. Montana - There are a lot of things about Rehberg that turn me off, but this is a deeply conservative state, if not as much Republican and it is a seat that was only lost because of Burns and his corruption and should be one the GOP regains. I even think that Rehberg should have ran in 2006 and had he done that, he would be an incumbent looking to win reelection in a landslide now.

Had MO, ND, and NE selected different candidates, I would be more interested in them and they may have knocked one or even all of the ones listed off.
15552  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 04, 2012, 02:20:57 pm
[1] NC Yankee
[2] Other: Franzl
[3] Other: Ben
[4] Other: Marokai
[5] Other: HagridofthDeep
[6] Other: AverroŽs Nix
[7] Other: Oakvale
[8] Other: Julio

Because I'm taking you with me!


I would like to apologize as well for that confusion.

Atleast this way, we got several more days to figure out who is going for what committee. But I WOULD STRONGLY ADVISE THAT ALL PREVIOUS DECLARATIONS BE REPOSTED DURING THE SPECIFIED TIME!!!

15553  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Matthew Dowd: Three signs of a losing campaign. on: November 04, 2012, 02:03:50 pm
JJ should sue! Tongue
15554  Election Archive / 2012 House Election Polls / Re: NY-24: Siena: Still a tied race on: November 04, 2012, 01:55:02 pm
That seems like a lot of undecideds at this point. I think Maffei pulls it out in the end, especially if Obama runs strong enough in the district. Still, this one should be pretty low-hanging fruit for Democrats.

Which is basically, why I think San Francisco will have an new Representative in the not too distant future.
15555  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Harry Reid: Senate Democrats would reject Romney's "far-right agenda" on: November 04, 2012, 01:44:08 pm
Everytime I look it Harry Reid, I am reminded how glad I am that the Senate has a fillibuster and a GOP willing to use it. A SOB like him in complete control of even a single branch of gov't scares the hell of me.

He is also practically cutting last minute ads for Fischer, Rehberg, Berg, Akin and Mourdock here with this comment.
15556  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MO: Public Policy Polling: McCaskill ahead, but barely outside of MoE on: November 04, 2012, 01:38:35 pm
Here's a guy that is so unpopular but is consistently narrowing the gap. This comes down to whether or not Republicans return home. If the Libertarian gets half of what he's polling at, Akin probably takes it.

Yep. Akin is only getting 79% of Republicans. If he can get that up to 89% on election day, PPP says he'll win.

Yeah, it's going down to the wire here. It may actually turn out to be the nation's closest Senate race.

Everything he does and says in the last 48 hours, should be that clip or comment from Reid about blocking Romney's agenda. This state is going to vote for Romney by near or above 10% and so if he wants to win, he has to tie himself to Romney and paint Claire as a Reid mininion voting for everything you hate and against everything you want.

I still think he will fall short, but there is a path there in the various ways that I have stated including, and contrary to JJ's rules (Screw the rules... Tongue), this is one state where there would likely be an embarrasment factor that shows up in the polls but not at the voting booth. How big that is, would be a key variable as to whether this is possible.

I actually think NV and MT might be closer still.
15557  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats poised for a big night in the Senate? on: November 04, 2012, 01:14:21 pm
I would prefer that it were Rehberg up 4 and Berg down 2, because in ND you can't definately make the case for a GOP underpolling, not as much for MT.

Their is a history of Montana being difficult to pin down before election day, I was certain that Tester would win by 15% to 20% in 2006 and it ended up being the closest raw margin in 2006 I beleive. You had a lot of Conservatives, overlook Burns' ties to Abramoff and stuff and come home at the end when it looked like it might determine the Senate majority. It won't this time but it is being billed as such in the media. Obama did really well there in 2008, then proceeded to rack up some high negative numbers there afterwards. There is the potential for a Romney to be underpolling by a point or two and with the race so close for Senate, that could be the difference.

I think Akin draws still closer then the polls are suggesting even, but still falls short by 1% or 2% and it will come down to his negatives being so high.

Flake probably has Arizona (ironic becuase three weeks ago IN was more solid then AZ), and Donnelly has Indiana.

I think the Republicans will have anywhere from 45 to 48 seats, probably 46 to 48 seats. A net gain of 2 is hardly a big night for Democrats. It is a disaster for a GOP that was poised to take over control of the Senate just four months ago when IN was likely secure (all Mourdoch had to do was shut up about eveything except Obama, Obamacare and Harry Reid and he would have had an 5%-8% win), VA was tied, FL was bobbing back and forth, Thompson and Scott Brown were ahead and Akin was at 17% in the primary.

I think the critical lesson going forward is not that OMG TP is horrible, but that incumbents and candidates in general regardless of faction need to take a much more sobering look at large early leads that can easily vanish overnight and focus on the mechanics and voting blocs in these primaries that will ensure that whatever happens and whoever surges, that they have deep pocket of support to carry them to a victory. That is in the end the only reason we are talking about Fischer by 5-8 and McCaskil by 2-4 instead of Bruning by 20 and Steelman by 12 is just that. Also, no freshmen House members as Senate candidates in targetted states. There were far better candidates in ND then a relatively untested Rick Berg.
15558  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 04, 2012, 12:15:07 pm
You know I can't for the life of me figure out just how all 8 of us misread the OP and then that on top of that I misread the several PMs sent between me and Nathan. I had thought the plan was to do the declarations all at once, then the voting all at once. That was the plan Nathan had intended for last time, before fate (read RL) interveened and caused a problem, and I had understood that we would go back to that and get it all done the first week. The Thread title also seemed to confirm that, but the body of the OP is for a tandem election.

Why can we never get this done right? Tongue Every Senate, it is either a two day delay or some other confusion or both that causes delay and problems. Last time, it was positively catastrophic.

I think when we do get the GOR back up in operation, "senate exposition", the role of the VP in that and whole array of these issues needs to be looked at. Because in some way, it comes up every single time.
15559  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 04, 2012, 11:58:24 am
That's fine, I think you're the best man for job Smiley

I appreciate that.

I have been working on plan that will help improve the areas of deficiency. I had hopped for more substance from the Townhall, then we have gotten. I plan to do one of those every two weeks or maybe three going forward. The biggest difference this past Senate wasn't that we had innactivity of a group of Senators, but also that we had lack of engagement on the part of many of the actives. And so we had a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 and last I checked we had 10 Senators not three. Previous actions geared just towards getting the inactives, active. This time, it will be more "comprehensive" (read: much more painfull for everybody ).
15560  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 04, 2012, 11:32:56 am
I declare for judiciary.

And I'm also willing to relieve Yankee of the PPT duties, if he is not interested in continuing to serve.

At this point, I am interested in continuing as reluctant as it may be. You have served in the position before and I am confident you could handle it so don't take it as anything negative about you. It does give me confidence that there are other people will to step forward and I am not the only one. With that concern aside, it comes down to a desire to get the Senate out of this rut that it has gotten into, if that makes sense.
15561  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 04, 2012, 11:16:53 am
Since we only have 44 minutes left and biggest gap in these declarations hasn't yet been resolved, I feel obligated to move to fill it.

For the second time in a row I have stated, that only as a last resort would I desire to continue as PPT. I stated that in three locations this time and apparently, no one has seen them or they have seen them and decided they are unavailable. Therefore, I now reluctantly declare to once again serves as President Pro-Tempore of the Senate.
15562  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: BREAKING: Donnelly opens double-digit lead in final Howey Indiana poll on: November 03, 2012, 11:13:00 pm
My only concern is that he not become entrenched like Bayh did.
15563  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: BREAKING: Donnelly opens double-digit lead in final Howey Indiana poll on: November 03, 2012, 11:01:10 pm
Well, Skillman was originally going to run for Governor, but got pushed out when Pence wanted to run. The plan was for Lugar to retire midway through his term, and Pence had promised to give Skillman the seat.

Should Lugar have retired, I'm pretty confident Skillman would have let Pence take the Governorship and she would have ran for Senate. She's a good team player.

Do you think Pence would try for this seat in 2018 against Donnelly? If his numbers are high, he would be the obvious choice and the one most likely to be able to beat him.
15564  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: BREAKING: Donnelly opens double-digit lead in final Howey Indiana poll on: November 03, 2012, 10:55:00 pm
Goddammmit Tea party. Delaware, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana.... how can anyone think this group of inbreds are GOOD for the GOP?


Broad brush, much. Tongue

Considering "the service" they are providing, I can't say I disapprove of their existance or their actions. I do disapprove of their lack of strategy and poor choice of candidates. Rather than jumping in at the last minute to influence a primary, they should have been seeking out quality challengers.

I am sorry, but I just can't bring myself to shed tears over that fact that a career, establishment politician can't just walk into DC anymore, but now has to earn it first. Oh the horror!!! As I said previously, you are blaming the wrong people here in many cases. Rather than blame the challenger who won, why not blame the incumbent or establishment guy who lost. Every single one of those candidates lost because of some flaw or mistkae they made. Lowden had Chickens for Healthcare and collapsed much like Mourdoch, Norton was boring and viewed as puppet, Castle didn't even bother to campaign hardly and Lugar had become disconnected with his own base who no longer trusted him.

Plus it is unfair to say campaign destroying gaffe/poor candidate=Tea Party. Ever seen New York? The establishment has a long history of crappy candidates as well. The only reason such is more prevalent amongst the TP is that they lack insider connections and political operators that can cover up their defficiencies, because they are not the incumbents, obviously.

And if you think it is over, you got another thing coming. Starting next year, you are going to have first hand experience in your own state, most likely. Tongue As long as people are pissed at Washington and their is a trust gap between the GOP leadership and the base, this will continue indefinately.
15565  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: BREAKING: Donnelly opens double-digit lead in final Howey Indiana poll on: November 03, 2012, 10:40:24 pm
As the Hoosier on here, the best delegation (while also actually being realistic) would be Stutzman and Lugar. Tongue However, say Lugar retired, I would throw Skillman in there. And should I be forced to take a Democrat, it'd be Ellsworth for certain.

So either:
Stutzman and Lugar
Stutzman and Skilmman
Ellsworth and Skillman

So many great options, and we're going to be stuck with Donnelly and Coats for at least four years. Lovely.


My feeling on a Lugar retirement scenario would be, if it happened early enough in the cycle, that Pence would switch over to the Senate and Skillman would run for Governor. Either way, really would have been fine by me though.
15566  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 03, 2012, 01:55:12 pm
FRanzl is theo nly sitting Senator to not have declare for a Committee yet.
15567  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 03, 2012, 01:52:25 pm
Damn caps lock is a powerfull weapon. Tongue

One seat on the JU and one on the IA still need people. We might be able to stick the two at-Large Seantors into them that win on Monday.
15568  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WaPo: GOP may add to 2010 house gains on: November 03, 2012, 12:11:24 pm
Does the VRA even mandate a black district in western NC?

Just because you have distirct and it is majority/pluralityy black doesn't mean it is protected. That isn't how it works.
15569  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: BREAKING: Donnelly opens double-digit lead in final Howey Indiana poll on: November 03, 2012, 11:40:17 am
Since we are giving prefered delegations, I would prefer Stutzman and Pence were I one of the state's residents.
15570  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: October 2012 Foreign Policy Review (Debating) on: November 03, 2012, 11:29:52 am
BEN, WTF ARE YOU?!!!!
15571  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 03, 2012, 11:06:23 am
GOR: Oakvale, NC Yankee, Nix, Julio,
NS: None
JU: Marokai Blues on the radio
IA: Nix and Marokai Bluesky

NS - 3
JU -2
IA -1

We need five more declarations.

If we have a vacancy, we might be able to plug one of the At-Large Senators elected on Monday morning into the whole, but that could get confusing. If only BK and NV had left sooner.
15572  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: Additional Expansion of Emergency Credit Act (Debating) on: November 03, 2012, 10:59:04 am
Motion to table, since Marokai blasted through my deadline with reckless abandon and we need some consequences around here, not free passes.


Whether this gets seconded or not, is up to you Marokai. My suggestion is stay available. Tongue


15573  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: PPT and Committee thread for the 52nd Senate on: November 03, 2012, 10:44:05 am
WE ARE COMING UP ON 23 HOURS HERE!!! THAT MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE REST OF THE LEGISLATIVE BRANCHES IN THIS GAME, BUT THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR ENOUGH FOR THE 52nd SENATE!!!!! Angry Angry Angry


We need people to start declaring for Committees.
15574  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: Right Wages for the Right Regions Act (Debating) on: November 03, 2012, 10:41:04 am
I think I overwhelmed Nathan on this, whne I tried to explain how to get this to a final vote.


Since no one has commented (Debated) the merits of the bill since Hagrid, a vote can be opened on final passage as soon as 24 hours has passed since Hagrid's last post.

We won't worry about UC, unless and until it is necessitated by events.
15575  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WaPo: GOP may add to 2010 house gains on: November 03, 2012, 10:36:16 am
I am not going to state every single point I have to make about the NC redistricting, every time it comes up. I have stated many times my disdain for it on the manner and such would be easy to find in the relevant thread topics on the proper board. My time is limited and I am not going to write a book on the subject just because some people can't avoid makign false assumptions and accusations.

I am sick of liberal posters making bs assumptions and putting every singe blue avatar on trial on this forum.

And looks are the worst way to judge a gerrymander. Some of the best made ones look completely innocent at first glance.
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