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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 06:59:17 am
I'd have a cat5 melt down if
-Florida was 50% in and Trump was up 2% at 8:30pm est
And -PA was 10% in and Trump was up about the same at that time.

Hillary can't win and lose PA without Florida.

Latter is impossible. Philly counts first. If Trump wins the state, it'll be a gradual comeback throughout the night after massively trailing early on. That's what happened in the 2010 Senate race.

Sestak 74 Toomey 26, was where the night started if memory serves me.

Not just Philly, but Democratic areas as well in many of the counties. For instance Crawford's first returns came back with Sestak ahead and in true Atlas panic first fashion, people ran with that to the bank to assume Sestak had won. However, by the time the county finished, Toomey had won it 61-39, which while soft was right where he needed to be.

So when people look at key counties, make sure they are complete or near complete before drawing conclusions.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 06:52:38 am
GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.
78  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:17:12 pm
Quote
Press Release -
I am announcing the appointment of my running mate, Secretary Rpryor to serve as Chair of my National Security/Foreign Policy Advisor Team (I might call it the National Security Council Wink). Rpryor expressed interest in exploring opportunities for the Vice President to become involved in the area of foreign policy as way both to improve that position and also to engage the public more in the foreign events and national security issues that often get passed over.

There will be at least two other members to this team announced soon.
79  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:04:06 pm
Quote
Press Release -

I am announcing the choice of Fmr. President Leinad to serve as head of my transition team. President Leinad has the most knowledge of the situation on the ground as the outgoing President as well as of the current cabinet members and therefore it is my opinion that him serving as transition team head will ensure the most seem less transition possible.
80  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:02:00 pm
Quote
For Immediate Release -

I am announcing the selection of fmr. Senator and People's Representative shua and Fmr. Senator Potus as the first members of my domestic advisory panel. Both of these distinguished players have a long history of formulating and constructing policy reforms and I look forward to working with them in Nyman, if I am so fortunate as to be elected by the people. There will be more additions to this team in the coming days.

Please stay tuned.
81  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:01:09 pm


While I don't feel comfortable announcing/confirming appointments or the like until a winner is confirmed, I will reiterate my previous advisers announcements and add to that team of people so as to ensure that we hit the ground running should we be declared the winners.


Transition Team Chair: Fmr. President Leinad
Domestic Policy Advisors: Fmr. Senators Shua and Potus2036
National Security Advisors Council Chair: Secretary Rpryor03

 
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IN - WTHR/HPI - TIE - Many still Undecided on: November 06, 2016, 10:11:30 am
It seems that Trump has surged in IN and MO. The last few elections they have moved together. Tied in 2008, Romney by 10% in 2012 and now we see Trump ahead of Romney in both with about a 12% lead. That is up significantly from a few weeks ago and Trump is actually a great fit for both states.

He could very well carry most of or even all of the GOP ticket to victory in those states, including Senator and Governor, resulting in narrow 1% or 2% wins for Holcomb and even Greitens.
We Hoosiers are known for being ticket splitters.  I think Gregg wins by less than 1%.

After all, we elected Obama narrowly and simultaneously re-elected Daniels in a landslide.


Yes, that is true and that is why I added the caveat "most or even all".

Governors usually go differently from the rest of the ticket or at the very least can go different. Though when the race is tied, the chances that turnout and other factors stemming from the top of the ticket increase the chances of them getting pulled in.

Keep in mind Daniels won by 18 and Obama won by less than 1%. Here the situation is the opposite with the Governor tied and Trump up 12%. If Trump over performs in the Midwest (and there is reason to think he might), that could make the difference in a race for Governor with a 1% margin.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Evan Bayh used taxpayer cash for hotel stays on: November 06, 2016, 09:55:32 am
The problem with Bayh is illustrative of the fact that being moderate doesn't always imply he is being moderate for you the voter as opposed to him and his brand instead.

Let's be honest, very few people go around describing themselves as extremist.

Obviously, but the point is are you going to make a compromise that is a beneficial to a significant chunk of people, or obstruct something over a minor tax provision that most wouldn't care about at all to please a few donors and get a headline about Bayh standing up to tax hikes. It is a stunt right out of 1999. That is the difference between a moderate statesmen and an exercise in moderate political branding.
84  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Public Discussion on the Supreme Court Cases (Avoid Cluttering Case Threads) on: November 06, 2016, 08:00:11 am
I do not have a position on Bacon King v. SoFE, partly because I haven't taken the time to review the law and see what the right answer is, but this interpretation of our Constitution:

Secondly, the constitution gives the Congress the right to set requirements for activity. It does not state posting activity and it doesn't limit what kind of activity it could be applied to. Therefore, Congress has broad authority to define such activity and could therefore define both lack of activity or engaging in certain other activities (lack campaigning in the voting booth) as being prohibited and still consist of a "requirement for activity" as stated in Article I, Section 4.

genuinely disturbs me. This basically amounts to saying, 'activity means whatever the Congress says it means,' which opens the door for a train of abuses that could potentially disenfranchise huge swaths of the population. Speaking as the person who actually wrote Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution, I can assure you that this is not what the framers intended.

For the record, I don't think the SoFE's actions violate the Constitution, but I don't think the reason he gave is the correct one either. "Requirements for activity" refers to a very specific measure of participation on the forum at large, and not to an ethereal concept that Congress is free to mangle and redefine at will.

I think at this point, the section is going to need to be amended regardless of what the outcome is.

Do keep in mind though, that Congress would still be bound by the rest of the Constitution including equal protections, so Congress would be in a difficult position to pass a law disenfranchising voters with undue burdens (which a prohibition on campaigning is not), without also running into other Constitutional barriers.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Evan Bayh used taxpayer cash for hotel stays on: November 05, 2016, 07:25:43 am
The problem with Bayh is illustrative of the fact that being moderate doesn't always imply he is being moderate for you the voter as opposed to him and his brand instead.

For instance, as Bill Maher pointed out. He held up Obamacare for a while not because of any number of concerns with plan, or desire for something better, but because he objected to a tax that impacted the top 1/10ths of 1%. It makes for great narrative making, "I got a tax hike removed from Obamacare", but it doesn't lend itself well to endearing oneself to anyone be it Democrats who have fought for decades for healthcare and couldn't care less about the rich having pay more to fund it or Conservatives who oppose the mandate and so forth. Also it doesn't appeal to the number of working and middle class moderates be they Republican or Democrat, who even as Republicans answer polls saying they want higher taxes on the rich.

This is the type of 1990's style thinking by Democrats, that just doesn't play well with anyone anymore and the great lesson here is as I said months ago. Bayh has not won election since 2004, times have changed and Bayh is out of step with the new reality.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IN - WTHR/HPI - TIE - Many still Undecided on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:48 am
It seems that Trump has surged in IN and MO. The last few elections they have moved together. Tied in 2008, Romney by 10% in 2012 and now we see Trump ahead of Romney in both with about a 12% lead. That is up significantly from a few weeks ago and Trump is actually a great fit for both states.

He could very well carry most of or even all of the GOP ticket to victory in those states, including Senator and Governor, resulting in narrow 1% or 2% wins for Holcomb and even Greitens.
87  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Public Office of the Leinad/Lumine Administration - Goodbye, Farewell, and Amen on: November 05, 2016, 06:51:41 am
Thank you President Leinad for serving as a model for new Atlasians, that with hard work and determination, you can go from newly joined to President in just 13 months (a bit less actually), and also as a model for Libertarians by becoming the first ever Libertarian President of Atlasia.

President is a tough job, I have seen it eat up veterans and spit them back out. I have seen legendary statesmen struggle with the challenges of the day (Which is partially why I avoided running for so long Tongue). I commend you for stepping forward to lead this country in challenging times and I look forward to your future accomplishments with great expectations.

88  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Clyde for Northern Senate on: November 04, 2016, 07:32:29 am
I have but one question - will you use your platform as a Senator to ensure ALL VOTES are fairly counted and the depraved attempt to steal the Presidential election is thwarted?
I'll seek to support a bill that prevents members of the Supreme Court from running in any election without resigning, and the SoFE from running in any election that they will be conducting. I note that Siren has introduced a bill in the House that has this intention. Should that fail, I'll introduce my own bill.

My recommendation would be a law requiring automatic recusal of a Justice who runs for office and a forced leave from the court lasting for the duration of the campaign.  

We have a five member Supreme Court, so the impact of one justice being put out of commission for two-three weeks is less so and less of concern then having to replace a justice for a life time appointment, especially if said candidate loses anyway. This has the equivalent effect, at least temporarily than an increase in the number of offices would.

Consider this, if I had to resign, I never would have ran. This distinction could mean the difference between a competitive race and one that is not.

I like your approach to minimizing runoff occurrences, though.

Anyway, Endorsed! Smiley
Thank you for your support. Smiley

I'd be open to having Supreme Court members being recused during the campaign, rather than being forced to resign. Obviously, my view would be one of six in the Senate if I am elected.

I think the main thing the Presidential election has shown is that there is a lot of work to be done to our electoral laws.

Yes, and I see now the SoFE probably should not be a candidate, unless he has a deputy SoFE he can delegate too. We used to have Talleyrand as Deputy SoFE during HLC's long tenure and when HLC was unavailable, he would take over.

I remember there was controversy over Talleyrand or perhaps it was someone else, because they served as deputy SoFE while also serving as Senator something.

Maybe the RG can serve as deputy SoFE. I mean back in Earl's day, they were one office (hence the title SoFA instead of SoFE).
89  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Public Discussion on the Supreme Court Cases (Avoid Cluttering Case Threads) on: November 04, 2016, 06:32:57 am
If the standard is "will it influence people" I assert that it is highly unlikely anyone was influenced by BRTD and Hashemite's insult of Kingpoleon, because they were simultaneously voting for him at the same time.

if anything, it's more likely that a viewer will think "wow, the blair/kingpoleon ticket is such a good choice that they're even getting the votes of people who hate them!" No one will decide against voting for a candidate based on hesitant ballot commentary from someone who still voted for the candidate in question anyway.

So you might say the statement had the effect of campaigning for them? Tongue 

I really wish they ballots had been looked at in August. However, as Bacon so eloquently articulated last week, previous non-enforcement does not justify future non-enforcement, otherwise law be damned and we would not have had a runoff.
90  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: You should have listened on: November 04, 2016, 06:10:56 am
Notice I said, "move the discussion on the right", not change my vote personally.


There was still reluctance after I signed, bore and the mass loss of players from Sawx, to Adam to Snowguy from bans and deregistrations, help push them to try the Con-con.

The petition was signed before sawx's banning but after my speech by you, jomcar, cinyc, poirot and adam. That's 4 (at the time) very active right wingers and the labor power broker. After the 22nd july but before the 1st of august it was signed by, timturner, marokai, flo, dereich, tony v, texasgurl, clarkkent, newcanadaland, badger, anoton kreitzer, peeperkorn, sanchez and gass.

Of those 4 can be counted as right wingers, with dereich being the only one who was active in the game at the time. The rest were the result of the labor machine swinging behind getting people to sign the petition and were mainly, to put it charitably, zombies. I'm sorry, yankee, but the facts simply do not bear your theory here out.

Prior to the massive number of deregistrations, consolidation was still viewed with hostility, and many thought a convention would fail to achieve anything. Even among those who signed it, many were still opposed to consolidation, which was of course the primary expected proposal at a convention. Perhaps that is what is causing our different interpretation of events with regards to support on the right. The massive loss of players finally encouraged those who had long opposed consolidation to realize it was only answer at that point.

I would also point out that I purposely delayed signing by a week because I was worried that the minute I signed the petition, it would be attacked as "Yankee's little scheme to preserve the status quo" by the dissolution, which was already being tossed around. Avoiding signing it gave the con-con some distance until those critics began to depart.
91  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Clyde for Northern Senate on: November 04, 2016, 05:52:25 am
I have but one question - will you use your platform as a Senator to ensure ALL VOTES are fairly counted and the depraved attempt to steal the Presidential election is thwarted?
I'll seek to support a bill that prevents members of the Supreme Court from running in any election without resigning, and the SoFE from running in any election that they will be conducting. I note that Siren has introduced a bill in the House that has this intention. Should that fail, I'll introduce my own bill.

My recommendation would be a law requiring automatic recusal of a Justice who runs for office and a forced leave from the court lasting for the duration of the campaign.  

We have a five member Supreme Court, so the impact of one justice being put out of commission for two-three weeks is less so and less of concern then having to replace a justice for a life time appointment, especially if said candidate loses anyway. This has the equivalent effect, at least temporarily than an increase in the number of offices would.

Consider this, if I had to resign, I never would have ran. This distinction could mean the difference between a competitive race and one that is not.

I like your approach to minimizing runoff occurrences, though.

Anyway, Endorsed! Smiley
92  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Clyde for Northern Senate on: November 03, 2016, 04:51:02 am
it's my understanding that both Blair and Yankee have people who will replace me as Game Moderator waiting in the wings
Wait, what? Why would anyone want to replace you - you've been a fantastic GM.

More of a shuffle actually. He was my number 1 choice to replace Rpryor as SoFE.
93  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: You should have listened on: November 03, 2016, 04:35:42 am
Notice I said, "move the discussion on the right", not change my vote personally.


There was still reluctance after I signed, bore and the mass loss of players from Sawx, to Adam to Snowguy from bans and deregistrations, help push them to try the Con-con.
94  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: CONFLICT OF INTEREST on: November 03, 2016, 04:32:00 am
Wait, Yankee is a justice now? He left the senate?

I haven't been in the Senate since May.

Since then I have been Judicial Overload (until the reset), People's Representative (for a partial term) and Associate Regional Justice for the Southern Region (which means I am basically Judicial Overlord and a Supreme Court Justice).

Its been in my signature for months, with John Dibble inspired flair, the only proper way style oneself as Judicial Overload (or successor office thereof).
95  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: You should have listened on: November 02, 2016, 03:17:40 am
honestly, if i were the esteemed former president, i wouldn't bother engaging with injustice yankee at all. dude has never made a valuable argument despite literally living in this game for over a decade.

Wrong.

I made a very valuable argument a year ago to enough sensible people to ensure that Harry Truman was elected as the fifth At-Large Senator and you were not. Tongue
Fmr. President James Buchanan
OldPublicFunctionary     
YaBB God

★★★★★
Posts: 6168

Re: BREAKING: Lee's Army Surrenders at Appomattox
on: April 9, 1865, 11:23:47 pm

My last months as president coincided with a secession crisis, with state after state announcing her departure from the union, the congress hopelessly divided, and the army a mere husk. It was only through my strong leadership, neither resigning and abandoning the union nor endorsing the approach of black Republicans who wished merely to play coy and ignore the impending rupture of our family of states, that brought about a successful war strategy which, while perhaps going on for too long, did bring about the reunion that was necessary.

no further comment necessary

I thought that was funny. Tongue
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign wanted to ditch DWS back in December '15 on: November 02, 2016, 02:13:02 am
Lol. I just imagine Hitler in his bunker in 1933 saying "Can we ditch this Goebbles guy? I mean I want to win and all, but geez this guy's a shill."

I highly doubt that conversation would have occurred in his bunker, in 1933.
97  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Petition for a New Election on: November 02, 2016, 12:41:09 am
How nice the bs narratives have spread around the #Atlasforum crowd with a complete divorce from reality.


Oh but the IRClique is dead, the times have changed. Things are much better now, the conversation has improved. Alas poor Snowguy, the subsequent 72 hours have belied the truth.

You and your running mate won't get away with stealing this election.

You guys are the ones stealing the election. Tongue

Two play this ridiculous game if that is what you want.


98  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: CONFLICT OF INTEREST on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:23 am
Only in your warped alternative reality.

On the contrary, your immediate resignation as a Justice is pretty clearly called for no matter how this resolves itself. Frankly you should have done so as soon as you declared your entrance into the race.

I considered it, but I had every expectation of losing and I didn't want to give Governor PiT another headache to deal with for what I expected to be a three weeks and done experience.

If I am declared the winner of the Presidency, then I will certainly be resigning from the court. 

Other than that, don't hold your breath.
99  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: You should have listened on: November 02, 2016, 12:07:09 am
There is no way that attacking a candidate in the voting booth is not campaigning by any traditional definition. You can spin it, you can dive into any kind of historical examples that you want. But it is what it is and the law states that it is grounds for invalidation.

I would point out that Rpryor knocked off several of my voters too, two of which are being sued over as well. Why? Because the law either rightly or wrongly interpreted motivated those actions.

I don't think I should have to point this out to a Supreme Court Justice, but if laws were as obvious as you think they are, you'd be out of a job.

Ironically, I pretty much felt that way for the past four months because of the lack of cases.

The terms of the debate were not shifted because of your statements. They were shifted by the mass exodus of players that occurred over the course of that July, leading to myself and others like PiT embracing consolidation as the only viable path forward.

Your statement was regarding as neigh on embrace of dissolution, which the embrace of the Con-Con by various conservative elements was aimed at stopping.

It's pretty clear that the signatures to the ConCon started happening again at almost straight after my speech. And yes maybe that was because I moved the terms of debate, forcing the right out of its hidebound Smiley moderate reform Smiley dogma. I make no apologies for that. Although if you'd read the statement and my other ones it would be pretty clear that I regarded dissolution and a successful ConCon as largely the same thing.

You didn't move the terms of the debate on the right, bore. Sawx's ban did more to move the debate among us than you did.

The problem is that bore simply threw the towel when any sign of activity from the top would be of great importance. He didn't cross the line like Nix, but the fact remains he gave up.

Even before the crisis bore was pretty much a lackluster President. When I was the GM I a had very hard time to get him to react to anything (Lumine was very cooperative).

Interesting that you've neglected to mention that your time as GM came to an ignominious end as you were forced by the overwhelming weight of public opinion to resign as GM because you nuked atlasia.



Whose that Crazy Pole destroying the world, its Kal, Crazy Kal.

The blood of the innocent will flow without end, its Kal, Crazy Kal.

Best GM Ever!!!
100  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: You should have listened on: November 02, 2016, 12:02:36 am
honestly, if i were the esteemed former president, i wouldn't bother engaging with injustice yankee at all. dude has never made a valuable argument despite literally living in this game for over a decade.

Wrong.

I made a very valuable argument a year ago to enough sensible people to ensure that Harry Truman was elected as the fifth At-Large Senator and you were not. Tongue
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