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76  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama's Exec Order a landmine in waiting for GOP in 2016 on: November 19, 2014, 02:23:58 am
Not to mention the fact that the Democrats were already winning by wide margins amongst Blacks stemming from what, you guessed it, the economy and jobs. By 1930, both Parties had thrown them under the bus and so they started voting for the ones that would get them a job.

The difference between getting 30% and 10%-15% (before and after CRA) was because it took forty years for a Republican to even lift a finger to try and win black voters and Bush's 16% in OH actually helped to win the election in 2004. Nixon was trying to play both sides publically (opposing busing, whilst in action moving aggressively to desegregate Southern schools), a strategy geared to win white moderates not African American's. Reagan never really tried and his statements both in 1980 and later his approach to South Africa weren't exactly popular in the community.

Sheer necessity would force the effort to be forthcoming and if 1936 is evidence of anything it is that kitchen table issues can often have the last word (FDR didn't do a thing except kotow to the Southern Democrats), yet he was the first Democrat to win African-Americans.
77  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which election was better? on: November 19, 2014, 02:08:42 am
2010. Jim DeMint killed absolutely any likelihood of the GOP capturing the Senate that year.

Not single handedly. Even if you give credit to Jim DeMint for costing us CO, DE and NV, you are still one seat short, and Republicans got their strongest possible candidate in WA the next closest seat. Granted, if Capito had run in 2010 she might have won, but unlike in 2014, the GOP was not ready to capitalize on the environment there from an organizational standpoint. Though Raese was obviously not a good choice, I don't think there were any better ones aside from Capito that would have made a difference.

On the other hand, the establishment blew CT and CA by rallying to the moneybag computer lady and moneybag wrestling lady respectively instead of the moderate former Republican Congressmen Tom Campbell and Rob Simmons. Ironically the one person who spreads the blame wholly to both sides (tea party and establishment) is Ann Coulter.

At the end of the day Republicans had a bad map (the 2004 map) to go into 2010 with and even if they had run the table they still would have come up short most likely by a seat or two.
78  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Confirmation Hearing: Flo for SoIA/Interior on: November 19, 2014, 01:11:11 am
AYE
79  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Confirmation Hearing: ZuWo for AG on: November 19, 2014, 01:10:00 am
AYE
80  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Confirmation Hearing: RPryor for Deputy AG on: November 19, 2014, 01:08:30 am
Based on the desired titling, I would assume you will be primarily focused on wiki modernization and updates. First off, the obligatory question here is if you have a wiki account and if not, how soon you foresee getting one?

Second of all, whilst your primary focus is such, do you foresee any involvement in the more legal aspects, particularily if the AG is absent for a period of time?
81  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Speaker Declaration/Election Thread (NOW VOTING!!!!) on: November 19, 2014, 01:00:48 am
Official ballot:
[X] bore
82  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Speaker Declaration/Election Thread (NOW VOTING!!!!) on: November 19, 2014, 12:59:52 am
I am afraid I must decline this one on the account of lack of time to successfully administer the position.


The declartion period is over and a vote is now commenced. This vote will last for five days or until a majority has been reached (seven day period mentioned minus the declaration period).

Official ballot:
[  ] bore
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread on: November 19, 2014, 12:35:37 am
Burr will win.

Considering what happened with Tillis versus Hagan, I am inclinded to think that McCrory does too, though it will be rather close and no where near what 2012 looked like.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Alaska Governor called for Walker! on: November 18, 2014, 08:12:14 pm
Yeah, Chafee is the only "indie" to join a party halfway through his tenure that I can think of.

@Cal

Keep in mind that Palin used to be seen as a fairly populist upstart in the Alaska GOP. If you look back through time (on this forum as well) a lot of Democrats said she was one of the "best GOP governors" for working against the oil companies.

I imagine Walker will govern similarly to Palin - against the Alaska elite (figures like the Murkowski family and Treadwell), and economically populist. It is surprising how left GOP governors in red states can go if they frame everything they do as "against the Washington/urban elite".

This frames the Palin endorsement in a very different light. That makes a lot more sense now why she did that and it probably did swing the race to Walker, as Parnell could barely reserve any air time and I'm sure her endorsement swung a few Republican faithful.

As unpopular as this sounds, in another context, had Palin been a competent state executive who was never plucked for vice president, re-elected as Alaska Governor, she could have been a  real contender for the Presidency who would have won.

Yea that is the most accurate understanding of it. Even more crazy is that Parnell was running as a populist outsider against Young in 2008 with Palin's supprt if I recall correctly.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Bob Dole on Immigration in 1996 on: November 18, 2014, 07:57:29 pm
Also I am pretty sure that AZ was probably because the dropoff of in Perot support and how that was composed of.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Bob Dole on Immigration in 1996 on: November 18, 2014, 07:55:06 pm
Romney was not anti-immigrant.

Clinton was not very popular amongst rural west because of enviromental policy. Bill Orton won by 22 points in Utah in 1994 and lost in 1996 because Clinton put a good percentage of his district off limits to developement. There was also the gun control issue. This is why so many Democrats in red states went for Obama over Hillary because fear of a repeat and to some extent that was the seeds of "I'm here" line Obama gave to when Marion Berry of AR expressed concerns about 2010. The extension of which was, "I'm not Clinton".

At least the baseline for a Candidate who is "defined" as anti-immigrant (by opponent/media), has risen from 21% to 27%.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: November 18, 2014, 07:46:54 pm
For some reason, I thought Murphy would vote for it. He's pretty close to Landrieu, and I thought he might vote for it as a bone to her.


Come on Miles. Murphy is staying and Landrieu is leaving. Protecting the President>Protecting Senator Landrieu for an incumbent who wants a future. When Reid calls, you obey. I wouldn't be surprised if these fourteen Aye Democrats vanish into the night in January for that reason.

I think that they will stick to their votes because they want to be re-elected in 2016 and beyond and a Nay vote could come back to haunt them.


Senators' reelection bids won't go up in flames two years or longer from now for changing their vote on a bill that will be vetoed by the President.

No, it depends on whether the issue has staying power. That is especially the case for MO, ND and MT where if they are still waiting, ten years after the initial application, you damn well bet that whoever Republicans run will make it an issue, same with WV. Donnelly might survive unless he has a list of votes to answer for instead of just one.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november on: November 18, 2014, 07:44:14 pm
I'm leaning toward a Republican majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate with the midterm congressional elections of 2014.

That actually goes against historical voting pattern.

Since the 1910s, with the 17th Amendment, every president elected beyond a single term (minus Franklin Roosevelt and Richard Nixon) who had majority control of either house of Congress at any point during their presidency ended up losing one of both houses in just a single midterm cycle.

Woodrow Wilson lost the Senate and House in 1918 (not 1914 and 1918).

Dwight Eisenhower lost the Senate and House in 1954 (not 1954 and 1958).

Ronald Reagan lost the Senate in 1986 (not 1982 and 1986).

Bill Clinton lost the Senate and House in 1994 (not 1994 and 1998).

George W. Bush had the special situation, not via elections, with the Senate in 2001 but, through elections, lost the Senate and House in 2006 (not 2002, with Republican pickup of the Senate, and 2006).

Already Barack Obama lost the House in 2010. So the pattern is that he shouldn't be losing the Senate and House in 2014 after 2010.

If the consensus in the mainstream, corporate news media sticks with predicting a Republican majority-control pickup of the Senate they better be right. Otherwise, they're gonna look corrupt. Just like Gallup did with their presidential polling results for 2012.


For a Republican pickup of the U.S. Senate (with 2014): I would anticipate every Republican seat held. The Republican pickups would come from the open-seat races in Iowa (perhaps the tipping point), Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. For reaching the majority-No. 51, incumbent Democrats would become unseated in Alaska and Arkansas. Any more beyond that tilts the final numbers to 53 to 55 for the Republican caucus.

That is because typically when they lose majority in the first term, the two sides come together and voters reelect both together like 1956 and 1996. However, I would point out that prior to 2010, voters had never changed the majority in the House without chnaging the Senate, but just like very other rule, they exist until they are broken.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Begich finally concedes on: November 18, 2014, 07:36:01 pm
So the cost of replacing Stevens with a younger and more compelling candidate, was six years of a Democrat in a double digit Republican state and Obamacare.


That is why McCain should retire. It doesn't always have to be indictment to break the hold of a Senator people are sick of. See Conrad Burns (still held by a Democrat) also.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 18, 2014, 07:28:47 pm
IA and CO, not ARK or LA was the key to the majority and having not acted on immigration reform through the Congress, not executively, we would have say a different result.

Immigration reform would not have helped in IA. A poll in 2013 by I think either SurveyUSA or PPP said that a plurality of Iowans 46-30 oppose a path to legalization. In fact the poll said that of the four biggest questions (immigration, Obamacare, the shutdown and one other one, maybe Keystone) the voters of IA sided with Republicans on all of them except the Gov't shutdown. The seeds of potential Republican victory in Iowa were there a year ago and the campaign merely played out in a way that allowed them to be capitalized on. ALso there is no demographic differential in IA since the state is so monolithic, save for age and even there Iowa is one of the states where young people are leaving.

The Republicans could do very well in Iowa going forward if they grew a brain.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 18, 2014, 07:25:22 pm
IA and CO, not ARK or LA was the key to the majority and having not acted on immigration reform through the Congress, not executively, we would have say a different result.
If anyone thinks another ten million was goingto change NC, they obviously don't live in NC.

The ads were saturating already.

What else could have been placed in an add against Tillis.

1) He gutted eduction to -
2) cut taxes for millions, private jets and yachts
3) will take away your medicare,
4) will ban abortion and contraception
5) had a conflict of interest on his staff

They did all that and more.

So Hagan essentially campaigned as a progressive Democrat?

Its one thing to say your opponent is a right-wing jackhole. Its another to give actual policies.

Exactly, Hagan didn't give a reason to be voted for, was a crappy Senator. And even the Charlotte Observer in their endorsement of her (which she touted as "OMG I Got Tillis' hometown paper"), said she was a crappy Senator in it's endorsement of her.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 18, 2014, 07:22:28 pm
Supporting the minimum wage doesn't make you a progressive. Rick Santorum supports a minimum wage increase.

Rick Santorum also supports unions. He's from a part of western Pennsylvania where Republicans have some economic positions that aren't exactly ones that most conservatives usually have.

So the Pennsylvanians are different line. That is dirty business man. Tongue

Mitt Romney supports increasing the minimum wage.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: November 18, 2014, 06:54:23 pm
For some reason, I thought Murphy would vote for it. He's pretty close to Landrieu, and I thought he might vote for it as a bone to her.


Come on Miles. Murphy is staying and Landrieu is leaving. Protecting the President>Protecting Senator Landrieu for an incumbent who wants a future. When Reid calls, you obey. I wouldn't be surprised if these fourteen Aye Democrats vanish into the night in January for that reason.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NRCC, American Crossroads & AAN caught coordinating via tweets on: November 18, 2014, 06:52:15 pm
The only news here is the how in which was conducted.

HANG EM!!!!
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: November 18, 2014, 06:46:38 pm
62 isn't 67.

My standard is putting it on the President's desk. There aren't enough votes in the house to override and so override margin in the Senate is pointless.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: November 18, 2014, 06:44:24 pm
Udall --> Gardner
Rockefeller --> Capito
Johnson --> Rounds
Harkin --> Ernst

Assuming the other Democrats hold, then the GOP should be able to get 63 next Congress.

Bennet voted yes. That surprised me.

For some reason I thought it said he voted Nay.  And yes it will be 63, I forgot about Johnson.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: November 18, 2014, 06:29:10 pm
1 damn vote.


I think Bennet, Carper, Kaine and King were the votes that decided it.


Assuming the Democrats don't defect, it should pass 62-38 in January.
98  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your Party ID Through the Years on: November 17, 2014, 03:02:11 am
1787-1816 - Federalist
1816-1824 - Democratic-Republican
1824-1828 - Adam's Republican
1828-1834 - National Republican
1834-1854 - Whig
1854-present - Republican
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 17, 2014, 02:48:08 am
Supporting the minimum wage doesn't make you a progressive. Rick Santorum supports a minimum wage increase.
100  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Police Militarization and Civil Rights Act (Debating) on: November 17, 2014, 02:44:47 am
Will there be a vote on my amendment?

There is no one who can.

The VP has been stripped of all his authority and Dean has no authority in the vacancy of the Speaker except to open a vote on the new speaker.

I said we were cutting too deeply in terms of text size. Tongue
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