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December 18, 2014, 11:42:41 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Fix the Senate Rules Resolution (Debating) on: December 11, 2014, 12:51:04 am
Absent giving the VP a steak in running the Senate at some level, I fail to see how the position does not end up being abolished or even worse, given full voting power in the Senate.

77  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Federalist Party: October 2014 Convention (24 hr Snap Vote On Endorsements) on: December 11, 2014, 12:36:38 am
Abstain


We can definately look at some bylaw changes once the leadership elections are over. My only concern is that we don't forget the location selection for the next Convention. Perhaps we should select the city and then work on the bylaws to be safe in case it takes long.
78  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Civil Rights Act of 2014 (Debating) on: December 10, 2014, 03:16:51 am
Section 3.1 could be interpretted to ban regulations to ensure the safety of said conteceptives.

I am still not comfortable with the idea of separatism.

I also worry about the language section in terms of encouraging that. Between the process that is going to be legalized in section 1 and the language section, we are setting us on the road to Belgium and thus encouraging the utilization of the section 1 process down the road.

I respect diversity and value the contributions, but as we have learned with our politics in real life, when you don't talk to each other you tend to go self-segregate and focus on what seperates as opposed to what brings together. If people cannot communicate with each other it sets society down a very bad path in my view. English should be the national language of gov't, but it should go further and establish English as the standard language with an expectation that all be able to communicate via it, even as they preserve their own language as a part of their customs.
79  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Federalist Party: October 2014 Convention (24 hr Snap Vote On Endorsements) on: December 10, 2014, 02:54:57 am
The question is on whether or not to endorse Simfan for reelection as Pacific Governor. Federalists please begin voting. Smiley

[  ] Simfan34
[  ] Write-in:
[  ] Abstain


The leadership declaration period has another 24 hours.
80  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Federalist Party: October 2014 Convention (Leaders/Endorsement Declarations) on: December 10, 2014, 02:49:08 am
Mr. Chairman, isn't it better to open a December 2014 Convention thread? Just sayin' ^^

From what I read in the wiki, the Federalists abolished them back in early to mid 2013. Frankly I don't even remember it so I guess ask Hagrid for details on that matter.

Also the leadership elections are required to be held in the October Convention per the bylaws.
81  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Civil Rights Act of 2014 (Debating) on: December 10, 2014, 02:44:49 am
I would recommend inserting the following instructions in some form:

Section 1 of this legislation shall be treated as Constitutional amendment and upon passage by 2/3rds of the Senate shall be sent to the regions for ratification. The subsequent sections shall be treated as legislation and shall upon passage by a majority of the Senate be sent to the President for executive action.

You also split it up with the first half in section one and the rest below section one.

The time I did this kind of split approach before, I gave the bill and Amendment containted within the combined act, its own independent title and instructions. Otherwise the Regions will have a hard time titling the amendment portion in a consistent fashion.
82  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Free Exchange Act (Debating) on: December 10, 2014, 02:39:09 am
I generally believe in a free market, but the instability created by a chaotic currency market has had a generally negative effect on the free flow of commerce. Rather then applying a broad standard down to the narrowest of economic sub-policies, it is better in my view to focus on the big picture and then ascertain what approach is best on a sub-policy and if that requires gov't regulation (and thereby said regulation facilitates the overall free market) I think such is the better route to take.


Now that said, nothing of course absolves any central bank of incompetence and poor policy and there should be changes made to the way they operate of course.
83  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Increase Activity Amendment (Voting) on: December 10, 2014, 02:34:35 am
Aye

Though I do have some concerns, such is clearly not going to matter now and I would prefer to air on the side of accountability.
84  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: The Atlasian Universal Education Bill (Debating) on: December 10, 2014, 02:32:57 am
What about the "remaining expenses..." They just going to disappear? More $10,000 hammers? Wink
85  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Fix the Senate Rules Resolution (Debating) on: December 10, 2014, 02:29:49 am
I appreciate the concern abotu "muddling the rules" but certainly after a 70% percent reduction in the size of the rules, we can afford to address some rather obvious concerns that have come up now that those new rules are in effect.

At that point it becomes valuing the reduction for the reduction itself and not the actual improvements that it will hopefully generate obviously. The inability to proceed immediately combined with several other things like the fewer number of slots together will increase the average queue backlog, something that has long been the consistent complain of both the sponsor and drafter of the rule package (by which I mean the new set of rules that went to effect a few weeks ago) going back a year.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018: DOAs and Retirements on: December 10, 2014, 02:05:17 am
As I said in another board, I would not be surprised if Hillary won with a Republican Senate majority, and even a rather secure one like 53 or 54 seats.

That's extremely unlikely. The same factors working against red state Democrats (increased polarization, decrease in split ticket voting) will also work against blue state Republicans. If Republicans break even in the Senate, Hillary almost certainly lost. You can make the argument that the Republican incumbents are unnaturally strong in 2016 (I don't see the logic behind it since most of them haven't been tested statewide outside of a low turnout Republican wave, but I digress), but people were saying the exact same thing about Pryor and Landrieu in 2013/2014. How did that turn out again?

It is more a indictment against the type of coalition Hillary would put together. Indies, women, plus some old conserva dems and of course boatloads of former Republicans in suburbs. Professional Republicans, willing to work accross the aisle threaten much more ticket splitting then was possible with Obama's coalition. I can easily see Toomey and Clinton both winning Bucks county at the same time and same goes for Kirk in Lake County.

If anything Landrieu and Pryor serve to prove my point. Suppose Hillary improves in both those states for instance, does anyone think that it would translate down ballot? The reason for this is because also that Clinton if the election were today, has a persona that is popular beyond her Party and therefore, she will outrun her own Party. That means the swing votes decide the game and they are just as finicky as ever. A good but more extreme example is Cuomo who had appeal beyond his Party, though unlike Cuomo she is not hated within it. Also, save for ILL, none of those states are direct comparisons to Republicans winning in close Presidential states.

I could easily see Toomey and Hillary winning Bucks County as well (in fact, I'd argue it's the most probable scenario), same for Hillary and Kirk carrying Lake. But Dems don't need those counties to win statewide. Bucks is no longer the bellwether it was back in 2000/2004. In 2008 it was 3 points more Republican than the state as a whole, in 2012 it was 4 points more Republican. In the 2010 Senate race it was 4 points more Republican, and in the 2014 gubernatorial race it was a whopping 6 points more Republican (though Cawley may have had an impact on that). Granted, a Democrat who is winning a relatively comfortable (~5 points) victory statewide will carry Bucks, but I don't expect that for Sestak. I expect it to be an extremely narrow race in either direction, which would mean Toomey carries it regardless. As for Illinois, Quinn won in 2010, a midterm with lower turnout than 2016 will have, despite losing Lake by a hefty margin. Carrying it would be essential to Blanche Kirk, but not to defeat him.

Pryor was also supposed to have a personal brand that would get him to significantly outperform a generic D. Instead he got Blanched. Obviously there's some exceptions to the polarization (such as Collins and Manchin), but I'm not convinced that Republicans are exempt from it in a year when there's a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket. The fact that Republicans couldn't carry a single Obama state Senate seat in either 2008 or 2012 with the sole exception of Collins, seems to back up this assertion.

You miss the point. Counties don't decide elections, tracts of voters do. The type of voters who will split Hillary/Toomey in Bucks are also in Chester. Say Hillary loses Chester by a couple of points, but Toomey wins it by like 10%, very plausible, maybe even probably. Suppose then that Hillary wins Montco by 12% to 15%, but Toomey only loses by a single digit margin. It is also fairly probable that Toomey outruns the ticket in the Lehigh Valley.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018: DOAs and Retirements on: December 09, 2014, 03:55:50 am
As I said in another board, I would not be surprised if Hillary won with a Republican Senate majority, and even a rather secure one like 53 or 54 seats.

That's extremely unlikely. The same factors working against red state Democrats (increased polarization, decrease in split ticket voting) will also work against blue state Republicans. If Republicans break even in the Senate, Hillary almost certainly lost. You can make the argument that the Republican incumbents are unnaturally strong in 2016 (I don't see the logic behind it since most of them haven't been tested statewide outside of a low turnout Republican wave, but I digress), but people were saying the exact same thing about Pryor and Landrieu in 2013/2014. How did that turn out again?
That's not really the case unlike 2014. Only Kirk's state is blue, I guess Johnson, Ayotte and Toomey have a blue tinge but they wouldn't be really defying partisan gravity to win. Rest are either genuine swing states, or worse.

And when you go state by state, the places where she stands the make the gains are amongst people who have a deep distrust of Democratic party they feel has abandoned them and will certainly vote Republican for Senate or House to check Hillary's excesses, or are former Republicans who long for the days of productive, sane Republicans. And save for Johnson, it is hard to argue that the other Republicans have not served as just that.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018: DOAs and Retirements on: December 09, 2014, 03:30:05 am
As I said in another board, I would not be surprised if Hillary won with a Republican Senate majority, and even a rather secure one like 53 or 54 seats.

That's extremely unlikely. The same factors working against red state Democrats (increased polarization, decrease in split ticket voting) will also work against blue state Republicans. If Republicans break even in the Senate, Hillary almost certainly lost. You can make the argument that the Republican incumbents are unnaturally strong in 2016 (I don't see the logic behind it since most of them haven't been tested statewide outside of a low turnout Republican wave, but I digress), but people were saying the exact same thing about Pryor and Landrieu in 2013/2014. How did that turn out again?

It is more a indictment against the type of coalition Hillary would put together. Indies, women, plus some old conserva dems and of course boatloads of former Republicans in suburbs. Professional Republicans, willing to work accross the aisle threaten much more ticket splitting then was possible with Obama's coalition. I can easily see Toomey and Clinton both winning Bucks county at the same time and same goes for Kirk in Lake County.

If anything Landrieu and Pryor serve to prove my point. Suppose Hillary improves in both those states for instance, does anyone think that it would translate down ballot? The reason for this is because also that Clinton if the election were today, has a persona that is popular beyond her Party and therefore, she will outrun her own Party. That means the swing votes decide the game and they are just as finicky as ever. A good but more extreme example is Cuomo who had appeal beyond his Party, though unlike Cuomo she is not hated within it. Also, save for ILL, none of those states are direct comparisons to Republicans winning in close Presidential states.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the last republican nominee to win new york city? on: December 09, 2014, 02:56:47 am
I might add that there were different strains of WASPs in the republican party. Much of New England was of a Unitarian/Anglican background that tended to be more moderate. Those that settled in the midwest (Kansas, Indiana) tended to be more of a Calvinist bent.

The story of New England in terms of Protestant Religious fervor amongst the Congregationalists at least, is one of steady decline. By the 20th century that was coming into full force, but the politics lagged considerably in this and therefore it was not until the mid 20th century that you began to see liberals like Aiken and Progressives like Prouty representing Vermont, whereas prior to them it was much more of the traditionalist almost paleoconservative bent that represented the state, who had by 1958 become unelectable in the state. Maine elected a similarly conservative Republican as late as 1946, and NH had Conservative Senators until 1960's and 1970's. The liberalism of the GOP establishment in Northeast (depending on your definition) is a post New Deal impact to respond to the demographic changes, both in the form of immigrants and increased unionization and as well as changes within the traditional GOP Yankee base in the region.

Also your previous point about voter awarenss is big. Voters weren't as informed as they are today and voted based on tribalism a lot, a point I have made at several points in this thread. And so yes you had liberals voting for the GOP because they had abolished slavery even though the PArty was hardly liberal overall (and such would be the case throughout 90% of its history). You had two ideological wings in both parties, a split on foreign policy in the GOP and the Wet/Anti-KKK versus Dry/Pro-KKK divide within the Democrats. That is why emphasizing the composition of the coalitions (and its changes over time) is not as indicative as my friend from Idaho would like to contend. They were such because the Party presented their bs in a way that seemed benign or relied a lot on sheer ignorance and legacy voting. That goes for both parties. These were both top down machines for much of the time that we are discussing and therefore it makes sense. No one doubts that The GOP was a corporatist shill in the 1880's, but a lot of working class voters voted for Harrison because of the tarriff. That hardly makes the GOP any less corporatist obviously.

You need to consider that those Calvinists in KS, IN, OH and MI came from New England.  Their seperation may have proved to be what preserved their Calvinism as it bled away in the home region. Also the use of the term moderate is rather misleading considering it is perhaps the most variable of any term throguhout history and could mean absolutely anything. It is fairly clear that the EAst in general was the more Conservative region within the GOP pre-New Deal. Most of the Progressives were out west with a few exceptions and most of their opponents were in the East like Wadsworth, Hanna, Penrose (I make policies beneficial to business and you reward me by donating to my campaign. He said that publically to a business group), Reed, Gillett, Aldrich to some extent, and of course Cannon being the farthest West in Illinois. You also had the anti-immigrant GOP politicians in rural protestant New England.
90  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Federalist Party: October 2014 Convention (Leaders/Endorsement Declarations) on: December 09, 2014, 02:32:31 am
Okay I am opening a 24 hour period for non-Federalists to request out endorsement in races without Federalists and any secondard endorsements. I apologize for the shortness of this, but time limitations demand it. This also means this thread is going to be rather confusing this week. Tongue


Declarations so Far:

Chairman:
NC Yankee

Non-Federalist Endorsement Requests
Pacific Governor:
Simfan34
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018: DOAs and Retirements on: December 09, 2014, 01:28:58 am
As I said in another board, I would not be surprised if Hillary won with a Republican Senate majority, and even a rather secure one like 53 or 54 seats.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread on: December 09, 2014, 01:24:43 am
I got to get myself into a 2016 mindset, but mind seems to not want to. Tongue

93  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Rebuild the Pacific with me - Paleobrazilian for the Pacific Council on: December 09, 2014, 01:16:45 am
Endorsed and Good Luck. Smiley


Let me know if I can assist your campaign in any way.
94  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Federalist Party: October 2014 Convention (Leadership Declarations) on: December 09, 2014, 12:59:44 am
Running late isn't so bad as it gets us some action during the midterm convention season, which we haven't done since early 2013 I think. Tongue
95  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Federalist Party: October 2014 Convention (Leadership Declarations) on: December 09, 2014, 12:56:19 am
Federalist Party Members have 48 hours to declare for the positions of Chairman and Vice Chairman.


Sorry for these being so late. It had been my plan to get them going before Thanksgiving but then my work schedule increased in the lead up to the holidays and that was that.


I declare for Chairman.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 09, 2014, 12:44:55 am
Asigning a numerical limit on something occuring based partially off of 2008 (when the economy was collapsing) and 2012 where Republicans were taking on incumbents in most all Obama states makes little sense. Thompson and Allen did not run campaigns that were such that would have allowed them to win whilst Romney lost their states, but both the background to do so and could have done so had they operated differently. That is especially the case with Thompson.

Several of the 2016 incumbents have a history of running strong campaigns and correcting from mistakes as opposed to letting them continue (Rubio did so after his first quarter and after that, he went up like a rocket). The only one that doesn't is Johnson actually. Ayotte overperformed, Kirk held on in a very Dem seat in 2006 and 2008 (with Obama a top the ticket), Toomey managed to get the Lehigh Valley to vote for a fiscal conservative (and without the Santorum pro-labor flavored side issues) three times running. Rubio nearly got 50% in spite of a former Republican being on the ballot in a three way race and with having supported off shore drilling against the backdrop of the Gulf Oil Spill. Portman always out performed the ticket by several points in OH-02 and destroyed his opponent in the last three months in 2010. Likewise, Burr has taken his opponents to the cleaners in the last three months of two campaigns as well.

This is compared to Dole, Coleman, Smith (who ran as bad a campaign as Brown in 2012 if not worse) and the like? Partisanship is a reality, but assigning a hard rule about ticket splitting in 2016 based off of 2008 with its economic collapse and rather lackluster candidates is a bit of a stretch. Shift just a few points, maybe three and you have four Republicans winning in Obama states (Smith, Coleman, Sununu [it was like 52-46 no?] as well as Collins winning).
97  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Civil Rights Act of 2014 (Debating) on: December 09, 2014, 12:01:35 am
What is the current (soon to be text) assuming the latest amendment is adopted?
98  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Youth Employment Act (Voting on Amendment) on: December 08, 2014, 11:59:08 pm
Nay
99  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: The Atlasian Universal Education Bill (Debating) on: December 08, 2014, 11:56:00 pm
NAY


There is $X in clause three. Is that suppose to be there?
100  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Protecting People from explosives Amendment (Voting) on: December 08, 2014, 11:52:23 pm
A firework is a low-potency explosive.

Then how does this amendment construe the abrogation of the right to keep and bear arms?


The Atlasian language is far less constricting, and does not contain a potentially purpose driven limitation, which many on the left have used to justify gun control. It also allows for the banning of fireworks.
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