Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 25, 2016, 12:26:02 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 1345
76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: August 16, 2016, 12:45:27 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YIjnskTwV0

A Republican alligned PAC should put the first minute of this on the air.
I'm not saying this isn't a smooth idea in theory, but does Bill Maher resonate with Indiana Dems/Centrists? I could almost see moderate/conservative Dems and Indies finding a condemnation from Bill Maher a good thing.

Its more the message of Bayh fighting for corporations first and people second.
Yeah, I definitely see your point. I just think that often when you use video/audio/quotes of someone in a political ad, usually the messenger is the message.

Especially if Maher will undoubtedly condemn the ad on his show and probably all-but-endorse Bayh just to spite Republicans using him in an ad.
Yeah those were easy words for Maher when Bayh was leaving, but now that Bayh plays a key role in retaking Senate, I bet he'll find that a shaky majority is far preferable to a minority hold.

THat will work with Democrats, but not necessarily with indies and Republicans off put by the notion that Bayh is corrupted by special interests. The key is to hit from all sides and even if Maher does endorse him for the sake of the majority, he cannot exactly recant the substance and that is what matters. Maher will not be the only source for that attack line.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: August 16, 2016, 12:02:52 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YIjnskTwV0

A Republican alligned PAC should put the first minute of this on the air.
I'm not saying this isn't a smooth idea in theory, but does Bill Maher resonate with Indiana Dems/Centrists? I could almost see moderate/conservative Dems and Indies finding a condemnation from Bill Maher a good thing.

Its more the message of Bayh fighting for corporations first and people second.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: August 15, 2016, 11:50:08 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YIjnskTwV0

A Republican alligned PAC should put the first minute of this on the air.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in. on: August 15, 2016, 11:32:48 pm

Dan Coats literally dropped in from North Carolina 6 years ago and had no problem to win.
I doubt it's any different this time.

Well, he had that trademark (R) next to his name. No petty residency thing matters if you have that in Indiana.
It was definitely an issue in the 2010 primary, though Stutzman wasn't well known enough to gain the traction to take him down. As I said back then, had Stuztman been given another month to campaign, he would be the incumbent senator right now running for reelection.

Residency was also a big reason for Lugar's (R) loss in 2012. I think your statement is bogus; this has been a bigger issue in the past with Republicans than Democrats. Considering we lost the other senate seat over this issue, I think it is a fair point for Young to bring up.

Indeed.

Anyone remember Santorum's residency issues? Granted he was pretty much sunk anyway, but it didn't help he was basically living in VA and his Penn Hills home looked completely uninhabited.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trouble in Kansas for Trump? on: August 15, 2016, 04:11:54 pm
It is very difficult to poll Western Kansas. And it comes in last on election day as well. On election day 2014, Gingrich pointed this out when there was talk of Orman possibly winning since the initial returns looked good, but the map was pretty clear on the matter (Western Kansas was pretty much empty). All of those counties are tiny, but there is a whole Congressional district there and one that is typically 70% Republican.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At this point, which would be the smarter move for Republicans? on: August 15, 2016, 04:06:06 pm
Remember that when the Tea Party was still popular, when even Sarah Palin was popular in Alaska, was when they were going after business and gov't.

The bailouts effectively linked the two together in a way that allowed for a libertarian message about gov't to have a strong populist appeal to many people who felt abandoned out there in middle America. It is basically how you got not just a Republican resurgence but a fiscally conservative GOP resurgence during a period when limit gov't was considered to have been destroyed as viable by the economic collapse.

For a while I thought Rand Paul had potential by staking out this Libertarian-Populist ground and making it a winning argument while also reaching out to minorities and other voters. It was a solid plan on paper, but Paul was not the man to pull it off.

82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At this point, which would be the smarter move for Republicans? on: August 15, 2016, 03:58:24 pm
The next Republican President, will be someone who can connect with that base while remaining palatable to enough other people to win the election. It is a difficult needle to thread, but it is doable and it is the only way.

83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At this point, which would be the smarter move for Republicans? on: August 15, 2016, 03:54:37 pm
Trump's base, as I have been saying, are either a) criminally misinformed, and/or b) simply bad, bigoted, people. The GOP would benefit in the long run from simply rejecting such people and effectively removing them, or at least internally disenfranchising (i.e., within primaries and other party decision-making processes) them, from the party. American political life and society in general would likewise benefit from the political disempowerment and overall marginalisation of such people and their views. Indeed, I don't think the "long run" would even be that long.

However that being said I'm not sure if the above could be more effectively accomplished following a landslide Trump defeat rather than by just removing him from the ticket. A crushing defeat would fully legitimise assigning culpability with not just Trump but the primary electorate at large for selecting him, and restricting their influence accordingly. Blame must be squarely laid at the feet of the people in order for meaningful action to take place.

Furthermore conservatives will need to think long and hard about the consequences of having facilitated the creation of such a self-contained right-wing media bubble, namely, the delegitimization of the traditional media and any attempt to disprove falsehoods circulated within this bubble, in favor of  "conservative" a de facto alternate universe with its own, separate set of "facts" and "truths". It is the imperviousness of this bubble-- and, correspondingly, the minds of many Republican voters-- to outside criticisms that led to Trump being nominated and retaining the support of most Republicans despite a degree of personal and political hypocrisy and generally distasteful behavior that should have,  from a conservative viewpoint, been completely disqualifying.

Media fragmentation, partisan echo chambers, or even "post-truth politics" are phenomena neither peculiar to the American right nor even the United States, but their impact has been far more acute in this instance than elsewhere. This might not necessarily require going as far as to restore the Fairness Doctrine, but it does require shifting conservatives (back) to a frame of mind where they are at least somewhat receptive to criticism of their accepted beliefs and favored politicians rather than wholly in thrall to dishonest, small-minded charlatans like Katrina Pierson and Ann Coulter. For starters, Republican and conservative leaders would be well advised to encourage the Murdoch brothers' reputed desire to shift Fox News away from its nakedly partisan stance. Their base should not be entirely impervious to the facts.

With all this in mind, the first option would probably be the preferable one from a strategic perspective, as opposed to one simply focused on getting the best result in November. Indeed, the worse the result, the better-- provided the only people left in Congress aren't the crazies in the Freedom Caucus and so forth.

Trump's supporters are the people the establishment have abused and lied to for 30 years in exchange for their votes. There are a number of hateful people in that group yes, but many of them are tired of having their issues ignored. The neoliberal agenda has ruined their lives, just like it has ruined many others and these are the voters that make up a substantial portion of the party, especially in the states that are trending Republican relative to the national average. The Republicans cannot keep tring to impose an Orange County, CA agenda on a Kentucky/MO/Indiana Party.

Jmfcst used to say whoever won his type of voter (high end/Evangelical/Sunbelt) was the nominee of the party. Now, the base GOP voter is a lower middle class guy in the suburbs of St. Louis. These people exist by the millions and in states that offer the paths of least resistance to GOP victory (The South and Midwest), therefore they now have outsized influence in the nominating process.

I will say again, Trump won this nomination when all the establishment candidates jumped on board the open borders band wagon. If you put all your eggs in the wrong basket, don't be surprised if people reject it. Romney was smart, realizing his path to the nomination was to go populist on trade and hard line on immigration. Bush, Rubio and Kasich realized the hard way what Romney calculated in 2007. This is also what I tried to explain to you way back when you were all gaga for Jon Huntsman.

This is the Republican Party. You cannot suppress its current base demographics, or you will end up with another Trump. If you think you can pull that off without consequences just as Jeb Bush tried, than clearly you have learned nothing and forgotten everything from the 2016 cycle.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A conservative activist's chilling comments about truth and the election. on: August 15, 2016, 03:28:06 pm
The closest parallel to this is the first half of the 19th century and the partisan press. We live in an era that keeps comparing back to a time when there was a universally accepted truth (basically whatever Walter Cronkite said) and so this era seems alien. However, that was a product of a collective decision on the part of many papers (and later the other mediums that followed) to move away from partisanship and more towards independent journalism.

This degraded over the last half of the 20th century and now we are in a situation that I was describing a few years back regarding the media and "fact checking". Now each side has their own press and their own "facts" and therefore there is no universally accepted truth teller anymore.

Charlie Sykes is a small fish in a big pond. Rush is the patron saint of talk Radio and he has been partial to Donald Trump from the start because he knows him. Rush entertained the birtherism as did Hannity. Beck did not. Beck said Trump was colluding with Soros to discredit the right, back in 2011. The reaction was hostility because Beck was challenging Rush, who assured his audience that Trump was genuine. The only one who could change this course would be Rush himself and that is not going to happen. Only once Rush is gone will other talkers have the opening to lead their audience in a different direction from what he says. They will listen to Sykes, but Rush is gospel.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Democratic Internal: Bayh +26 on: August 15, 2016, 02:22:37 pm
Yea, there will not be much polling out of IN. That is partially how Obama surprised McCain in 2008, as well as disbelief driven by complacency.

86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Normington Petts: Duckworth +7 on: August 15, 2016, 02:19:29 pm
In 2010, Kirk won because he did very well in the collar and the suburbs within Cook county, at the same time that Brady's all downstate ticket was driving up the numbers in the South and central portions of the state.


Kirk's only hope is to massively outran Trump in Chicago suburbs and hope that those same portions of the state that came in strong for Brady also come out for Trump.

On paper Trump is the perfect candidate for those parts of the state (South up to the Driftless Area). The problem of course is Trump's erratic nature/statements and disorganized campaign. But who the hell knows. Trump says he plans to secretly target surprise states and if he does so here, he might just bring out enough to boost Kirk over the top.

It is a long shot and a balancing act, but it is probably Kirk's only hope.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Burr +4 on: August 15, 2016, 02:11:17 pm
Damn. I know he likes to wait until the last minute to go hot and heavy but in this environment, he needs to get on his game and now.


88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Strickland: Scalia's death "happened at a good time" on: August 14, 2016, 09:29:58 pm
Any Democrat cheering at these remarks disqualifies himself from adopting morally superior attitude toward Trump and all the right wing nutjobs.

I know, for Strickland it was likely an one-time slip, but we're suppoused to be better than this, right?

This, but anyone who thinks Strickland's comment will guarantee Portman's re-election has no idea what they're talking about.

Indeed, Portman was going to see to that over the next month anyway. Tongue
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN - SEN 2016: Who wins? on: August 14, 2016, 09:10:32 pm
This race is winnable for the Republicans if they play their cards right. Evan Bayh strikes me as a low energy politician from another era (when many deep red states had safe Democratic Senators), who has never been significantly challenged since perhaps his days as Governor. His polls numbers are a reflection of the name and a longing/nostalgia for a different era. Introducing Bayh to the new reality, will bring his poll numbers down to earth.

There is no denying that Bayh is a Clintonista. The very fact that he is willing to run now should illustrate that fact. My recommendation would be to tie him to Clinton and hammer him as a rubber stamp. Bring up Obamacare, immigration, even trade if necessary. Most likely Indiana votes for Trump and even if it don't, it will be with extreme reluctance and misgivings about Clinton and thus plenty of appetite for someone who will stand up and hold her accountable.  

90  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Trillionth Federalist Party HQ - For the Constitution and the Free Market!!! on: August 10, 2016, 09:40:26 am
BTW, what are the ideals of "The Coolidge Society" ? I assume the main position is that "the business of America (and Atlasia) is business". 

Its a "Conservatarian Organization" founded by JCL. He has been its leader but it has not been active as much this year as it was in 2014 and mid last year if memory serves me.

JCL would be the best one to contazt about getting involved with it.
91  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Bylaw Voting) on: August 10, 2016, 09:38:06 am
Damn it Leinad. Tongue

I thought you ended this when we discussed it in chat the other day. Anyway, the bylaw has passed.


Potus, you said you had platform amendments, ready, no?
92  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: August 10, 2016, 09:28:42 am
OK, let's do this.  Smiley

Name: Andrew Jacobs
Partisan Affilliation: Federalist Party
State of registration: North, Connecticut

Welcome to the Party and the Game! Smiley
93  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Voting) on: August 03, 2016, 02:33:53 pm
A final vote is now open on the above bylaw amendment (subsequent alteration included), please vote Aye or Nay.

Official Ballot:
[   ] Aye
[   ] Nay


This will be a 48 hour vote.

I have alerted Vice Chair Leinad about this vote as well.
94  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Bylaws and Platform) on: August 02, 2016, 12:18:50 pm
Final vote then?
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HILL: GOP confidence in Senate majority builds on: August 02, 2016, 11:26:15 am
Portman is one of those Republicans who champion a late surge strategy, building up a tremendous warchest and then bombing the Democrat into submission in August and September.
96  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Bylaws and Platform) on: August 02, 2016, 09:24:55 am
Rather minor point, but wouldn't it be fitting to have that as clause 1, with the rest renumbered accordingly?


snatches' Leinad's Pedantic hat
97  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: 1018 - Nonpartisan Judiciary Amendment on: August 02, 2016, 09:21:37 am
I would also point out that Senators have served double duty as deputy SoFE and in cases of extreme emergency bailed us out at the last minute. Talleyrand and Tmthforu94 come to mind.
SoFE is a very difficult job to do and while it may give some people nice warm and fuzzy feelings to prohibit that, the history demonstrates that doing so would only serve to eliminate potentially qualified options to administer elections when no one else is available.


I would point out also that the one instance where the election administrators abused their office, was not when they "held another office", but in the pursuit of an office they did not hold. 

98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump caught eating fried chicken with a fork and knife! on: August 02, 2016, 04:47:05 am
It's time to make KFC Great Again!


The Colonel is rolling in his grave over how terrible it has become.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stein fails to make ballot in KS, NE, and PA on: August 02, 2016, 04:43:51 am
Did they try contacting the PA GOP for help? They usually jump at the chance of getting a Green on the ballot in PA.
100  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: June 2016 Federalist Convention - Lincoln, Nebraska (Bylaws and Platform) on: August 02, 2016, 04:24:01 am
Should we include a section about a Presidential primary? This nearly happened in February obviously and the bylaws really don't explicitly establish anything regarding Presidential endorsements. There was a section that dealt with it, but it was removed back in 2013.


Aside from that, I think we can move to a final vote, if we are agreeable to that.


Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 1345


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines