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December 09, 2016, 11:59:44 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Georgia seems to be first sign of concern for Trump on: November 09, 2016, 07:17:16 am
Yes, yet again, the DNC is proven to be fools for its "investments" in NC over GA. Before the Democrats began pouring money into NC (pre-2008), Democrats received anywhere from 2-3 points more statewide in NC than in GA.

Tonight? After eight years of them pouring literally hundreds of millions of dollars (maybe a billion by this point?) into the state with all of this bang-up infrastructure, polling and investment, NC is one point more Democratic than GA. A state that has gotten jack squat from national Democrats.

Oh, and don't forget IA & OH! Such lovely total swing states that have both been to the right of Georgia in the past two elections (2014 & 2016).

What a f[inks]king bunch of jokes.

"Only Griffin can fix!"
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate Ratings and Predictions - Pennsylvania on: November 09, 2016, 05:52:14 am
Underestimate Toomey at your peril!


Though Trump clearly helped him significantly with turnout in the central part of the state and probably Luzerne and Erie, which Toomey lost to Sestak six years ago.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: There's actually some pretty astonishing results beyond the "omfg Trump won" on: November 09, 2016, 05:39:40 am
The amount of counties Trump has won or looks likely to win in the supposedly super liberal New England is mindboggling:

Washington, ME
Aroostook, ME
Penobscot, ME
Piscataquis, ME
Somerset, ME
Franklin, ME
Kennebec, ME
Androscoggin, ME
Oxford, ME
Coos, NH
Carroll, NH
Belknap, NH
Sullivan, NH
Rockingham, NH
Essex, VT
Kent, RI
Windham, CT
Litchfield, CT

Upstate New York is a similar story...

And Eastern IA/Driftless ILL, West WI etc.  Sam Spade and I discussed this on AAD back in January, that Trump could resurrect as a GOP demographic what are now secular, working class voters in these various areas.

It is an odd coalition to combine massive Evangelical support with the secular "Simpsons demographic" to produce a winning combination. Reagan was the last one to put that together and since then it has been downhill for the GOP among the latter group (simultaneous with the loss of secular upscale suburbanites). Trump's nationalist economic message is more appealing to those voters be it infrastructure, trade skepticism etc, then binge drinking neo-liberalism/libertarianism. Heretofore the GOP did not have anything to offer these voters, because on social issues, religion has rapidly declined among this group in the 20th century. They are historically skeptical of foreign intervention (think Robert Taft) and on economics the GOP operated as if it was nation of just small business owners. Prior to Reagan you had the pro-infrastructure of Ike, historic Trade protectionism from the GOP's founding, and so forth that provided an economic argument that appealed to these voters.

Trump is the first time in decades that a GOP candidate has rather than trying to assert some theoretical template recreating Reagan verbatim, Trump went to these voters where they are. They hate Washington, they hate corruption, they hate war, they think trade has destroyed their jobs/schools (lack of tax base), without doing much to help them at all except promise more instability (Bank deregulation, etc), wars and corruption. Trump gave them a sledge hammer and they slammed it into D.C.

So the GOP is winning many counties it has not won since the 1980's.


That said, this election would not have been possibly without strong support from traditional elements of the GOP coalition including Evangelicals. Mike Pence I think was key to offering up that message because Trump needed trusted messenger and it just so happened that the vacancy on the Supreme Court provided the perfect wedge issue for Pence to get them out to the polls with. It is probably likely that if Scalia were alive, Clinton would be President. Perhaps those who were dancing on his grave last winter, will consider that fact. Mike Pence was also probably one of the most politically consequential VP picks in history.
            
            Evans %    GOP Evan %
2004    23%             78%
2012    26%             78%
2016    26%             81%  

This is probably the peak of Evangelical voting power in the US.

Candidate quality only matters if one candidate is flawed. Both were. Issues trumped candidate  quality and cultural identity/class while it can trump issues, is most forcefully demonstrated when they go together. Evengelicals-Court, Secular WWC - Trade.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate and U.S House Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 09, 2016, 04:55:44 am
John Mica, Scott Garrett and some other long term Republicans lost.


Meanwhile Will Hurd and Carlos Curbelo survived. Not what I was expecting.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Marijuana 2016! on: November 09, 2016, 04:50:57 am
FL finally Gets Medical Marijuana!




81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans won't win NH... on: November 09, 2016, 04:49:04 am
CNN Called NH Governor for Sununu.


82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans won't win NH... on: November 09, 2016, 04:41:08 am
NH is what it has always been. A wild, very swingy state that often leans Democratic but can go for the Republican who strikes that magic chord with those vast hordes of NH Indies.

Anti-Corruption sells in NH, Anti-War sells in NH.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1st time GOP president won without Colorado since 1908 on: November 09, 2016, 04:28:57 am
I think Trump is the first Republican to win PA without winning any of the big four PA suburban counties.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1st time GOP president won without Colorado since 1908 on: November 09, 2016, 04:28:16 am
Trump did well in upstate NY, but got murdered in the city even more than Romney did.


He won the Northern counties, He won Niagara, Broome and Erie Counties. Republicans haven't done that well since the 1980's.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 02:16:31 pm
I am pretty sure that OH map would point to a Trump win.

Almost certainly.
I cannot see the margin in Hamilton because it is below the line of the graphic and zooming on Chrome doesn't alter the boundary. From what I can see, the margins in the other marginals, Lake, Ottawa, Wood, the low Dem margins in Lucas and Trumball/Mahoning and Trump ahead in Ashtabula, something I mentioned as a possibly a few months ago are certainly very good for any Republican. Even the margins in Colombus metro aren't too bad, though those collar counties could be higher especially if Franklin gets up into the 60's for Clinton in the end.

Zoom out on the page.........

If you're using a windows desktop, hold down the control key and use the mouse scrolling wheel up and down to adjust zoom, its very easy.

That zooms the whole page. It is not allowing me to view the counties at the bottom of the maps.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:03 pm
I am pretty sure that OH map would point to a Trump win.

Almost certainly.

I cannot see the margin in Hamilton because it is below the line of the graphic and zooming on Chrome doesn't alter the boundary. From what I can see, the margins in the other marginals, Lake, Ottawa, Wood, the low Dem margins in Lucas and Trumball/Mahoning and Trump ahead in Ashtabula, something I mentioned as a possibly a few months ago are certainly very good for any Republican. Even the margins in Colombus metro aren't too bad, though those collar counties could be higher especially if Franklin gets up into the 60's for Clinton in the end.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 02:03:04 pm
I am pretty sure that OH map would point to a Trump win.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 09:07:59 am
I am shocked at how long the lines are in many places in the US.

Don't the people have to go to work or school at some point ?

Why not assign every voter to a certain precinct in which they HAVE to vote and not crowd single precincts. Also, for f**ks sake, simply create more precincts.

I have never seen a precinct here in Austria where people wait more than 5 minutes.

They are assigned to precincts they have to vote in.

I was disenfranchised back in the 2014 primary because we didn't have a vehicle and our ride took us to the wrong place just an hour before she had to take my mom to work so there was no time to go to the right place. This was despite my pleading with them that they were going to the wrong place.

They did everything they could to get us out of the voting place without voting and only after we insisted on voting, they gave us provisional ballots and we had to list the reason for why we couldn't get to the right polling place. They basically told us that there was very little chance it would be counted.

#NCVotingftw! Roll Eyes
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 07:32:03 am
GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.

Well, it wasn't a huge swing like that, but iirc Mourdock was still slightly ahead or they were deadlocked with something like ~20% in. Donnelly ultimately ended up winning by 6.

It might be because Mourdock lost a bunch of areas that normally go Republican and likely voted for McCain, or under performed in them producing a wider shift over the course of the night.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 07:23:53 am
GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 07:21:04 am
My dad was number #24 at our precinct. A lot of white guys with beard and big trucks at our precinct.

Calling it now! Massachusetts to be taken by Trump on the back of huge turn-out in the bearded men with trucks demographic.  

#PatriotFans4Trump delivers MA!!!!

You heard it here first. Tongue
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 07:08:09 am
Judging by NCYankee's post, Trump taking an early lead in North Carolina would have me petrified.

Hagan was leading by as much as 7% or so. And in fact her lead actually increased to her peak around 30% in, which led many on CNN to talk about her likely winning, only for her lead to rapidly evaporate to a tie around 80% reporting or so and Tillis ultimately won by 1%.

I am regretting having re-watched CNN's 2014 coverage so long ago now (August) because I cannot remember all the states.


Trump has to start in the mid 60s to have a chance in GA/VA and he has to remain above 60% as long as possible, because those leads rapidly decline between 50% reporting and 90% reporting as Atlanta/NOVA roll in.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 06:59:17 am
I'd have a cat5 melt down if
-Florida was 50% in and Trump was up 2% at 8:30pm est
And -PA was 10% in and Trump was up about the same at that time.

Hillary can't win and lose PA without Florida.

Latter is impossible. Philly counts first. If Trump wins the state, it'll be a gradual comeback throughout the night after massively trailing early on. That's what happened in the 2010 Senate race.

Sestak 74 Toomey 26, was where the night started if memory serves me.

Not just Philly, but Democratic areas as well in many of the counties. For instance Crawford's first returns came back with Sestak ahead and in true Atlas panic first fashion, people ran with that to the bank to assume Sestak had won. However, by the time the county finished, Toomey had won it 61-39, which while soft was right where he needed to be.

So when people look at key counties, make sure they are complete or near complete before drawing conclusions.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout? on: November 08, 2016, 06:52:38 am
GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.
95  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:17:12 pm
Quote
Press Release -
I am announcing the appointment of my running mate, Secretary Rpryor to serve as Chair of my National Security/Foreign Policy Advisor Team (I might call it the National Security Council Wink). Rpryor expressed interest in exploring opportunities for the Vice President to become involved in the area of foreign policy as way both to improve that position and also to engage the public more in the foreign events and national security issues that often get passed over.

There will be at least two other members to this team announced soon.
96  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:04:06 pm
Quote
Press Release -

I am announcing the choice of Fmr. President Leinad to serve as head of my transition team. President Leinad has the most knowledge of the situation on the ground as the outgoing President as well as of the current cabinet members and therefore it is my opinion that him serving as transition team head will ensure the most seem less transition possible.
97  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:02:00 pm
Quote
For Immediate Release -

I am announcing the selection of fmr. Senator and People's Representative shua and Fmr. Senator Potus as the first members of my domestic advisory panel. Both of these distinguished players have a long history of formulating and constructing policy reforms and I look forward to working with them in Nyman, if I am so fortunate as to be elected by the people. There will be more additions to this team in the coming days.

Please stay tuned.
98  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Office of NC Yankee (Transition Team and Advisors) on: November 07, 2016, 11:01:09 pm


While I don't feel comfortable announcing/confirming appointments or the like until a winner is confirmed, I will reiterate my previous advisers announcements and add to that team of people so as to ensure that we hit the ground running should we be declared the winners.


Transition Team Chair: Fmr. President Leinad
Domestic Policy Advisors: Fmr. Senators Shua and Potus2036
National Security Advisors Council Chair: Secretary Rpryor03

 
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IN - WTHR/HPI - TIE - Many still Undecided on: November 06, 2016, 10:11:30 am
It seems that Trump has surged in IN and MO. The last few elections they have moved together. Tied in 2008, Romney by 10% in 2012 and now we see Trump ahead of Romney in both with about a 12% lead. That is up significantly from a few weeks ago and Trump is actually a great fit for both states.

He could very well carry most of or even all of the GOP ticket to victory in those states, including Senator and Governor, resulting in narrow 1% or 2% wins for Holcomb and even Greitens.
We Hoosiers are known for being ticket splitters.  I think Gregg wins by less than 1%.

After all, we elected Obama narrowly and simultaneously re-elected Daniels in a landslide.


Yes, that is true and that is why I added the caveat "most or even all".

Governors usually go differently from the rest of the ticket or at the very least can go different. Though when the race is tied, the chances that turnout and other factors stemming from the top of the ticket increase the chances of them getting pulled in.

Keep in mind Daniels won by 18 and Obama won by less than 1%. Here the situation is the opposite with the Governor tied and Trump up 12%. If Trump over performs in the Midwest (and there is reason to think he might), that could make the difference in a race for Governor with a 1% margin.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Evan Bayh used taxpayer cash for hotel stays on: November 06, 2016, 09:55:32 am
The problem with Bayh is illustrative of the fact that being moderate doesn't always imply he is being moderate for you the voter as opposed to him and his brand instead.

Let's be honest, very few people go around describing themselves as extremist.

Obviously, but the point is are you going to make a compromise that is a beneficial to a significant chunk of people, or obstruct something over a minor tax provision that most wouldn't care about at all to please a few donors and get a headline about Bayh standing up to tax hikes. It is a stunt right out of 1999. That is the difference between a moderate statesmen and an exercise in moderate political branding.
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