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November 27, 2014, 10:04:04 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What do the Dems have up their sleeve next for Mary? on: November 21, 2014, 02:53:55 am
Whew, what a week! Failure to pass the Keystone Pipeline on Tuesday, an executive order granting amnesty for illegal immigrants on Thursday...what could Mary Landrieu's party have planned for her next? Will they take a tiny break next week for Thanksgiving or do they have too much work to do to prevent her from cracking 40%?
First off, it's not amnesty. These people that his orders affect are given no permanent residency, no pathway to citizenship, they're just told "Hey, look, for the next 3 years we're going to deport as many criminals as we can rather than wasting our time on lesser problems, so you can come out of the shadows safely for 3 years provided you pay fines and back taxes". There's also some strengthening of DACA. Yes, he's hoping that within 3 years some very long path to citizenship is passed, but that's nothing more than a hope.

Second, the answer is nothing. Obama was going to do these executive orders regardless of how the senate elections went, and the keystone vote only happened because Landrieu quite literally begged Reid to death for several years to allow a clean keystone vote, and he finally obliged.

Any action that greater potential to encourage then discourage future illegal immigration while attempting resolving the issue of those illegals already present is or might as well be amnesty. Were it not for that likelihood, save for the matter of adhering to rule of law, there would be no practical downside to immediately normalizing and not even bothering with "a path".

Obama can prioritize enforcement of different segments all he wants, but when he gets into the business of offering legal status affirmatively, he is overstepping his powers. He can say don't deport (decrminizalize by default), but he has no power to change the official legal status of these four million or so effected by the order or waive employment regulations regarding the hiring of them.
77  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: That's a friggin' dramatic turn of events - Pingvin for IDS Legislature on: November 21, 2014, 02:41:51 am
I will also throw an endorsement your way as well.
78  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: End Racism in Federal Contracting Act (Debating) on: November 21, 2014, 02:40:06 am
Siding with Windjammer on this one.

NAY
79  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Youth Empowerment Act (Debating) on: November 21, 2014, 02:38:24 am
Perhaps a more targetted approach then one that throws the barn door wide open then?
80  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: The Senate Fair Participation Act (Debating) on: November 21, 2014, 02:29:15 am
Nay
81  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Police Militarization and Civil Rights Act (Debating) on: November 21, 2014, 02:28:23 am
NAY
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 20, 2014, 09:40:25 pm
Disgusting. If Obama is doing this because Congress won't give him an up or down vote, than we should give him an up and down vote. Then we will see if he is really interested in circumventing the law or not.

Can we just have one common sense thing with immigration before you start saying "Criminals will have babies to stay here!!!1!" b/c

1. Criminals will be deported, if you actually listened to Obama's speech.

I'm thankful he did something because congress is full of terrible people who refuse to do anything that would benefit this country.

The best part is obviously:
Quote
To those Members of Congress who question my authority to make our immigration system work better, or question the wisdom of me acting where Congress has failed, I have one answer: pass a bill.


Though clearly not so terrible as to continue to pass terrible legislation that previous terrible congresses have passed perpetuating this present terrible situation.
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 20, 2014, 09:37:47 pm
Thirty-seven percent of independents back Obama’s plan to take action if Congress does not move forward on immigration reform, while 47 percent disapprove of such action.

If this poll is accurate there is a winning coalition for a Republican in opposting to this (whilst supporting a compassionate "legislative" reform) with only +6 amongst Hispanics and -9 amongst Indies.

The same winning coalition that President Romney used in 2012 after Obama stopped deporting DREAMers.

Romney's problems are well noted and likely he will note be on the ballot in 2016. I would also note that in the scenario I laid out Romney didn't do a key aspect of that, of course in your rush to condescend you may have missed that part of my post.
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 20, 2014, 09:32:06 pm


I trust Latino Decisions over a crosstab result from a NBC poll...

Yes, they are the gold standard when it comes to this. I'd be willing to bet this is a 75-25 issue (in terms of approval) among Latinos in a sample in which all understand what is being proposed.


That is potentially the case but wouldn't Latino Decision's history say anything about its ability to deal with languaged barriers? 63% is still not high enough.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-01: Rod Blum Appears to be a Loan Shark on: November 20, 2014, 08:19:30 pm
Jim Nussle held on to IA-01 for over a decade. Granted it is tougher territory now, but a decent candidate would at least have a chance of holding it.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Bob Dole on Immigration in 1996 on: November 20, 2014, 08:15:00 pm
Another question, why did Asians vote for Bob Dole, when Romney got butched amongst the same group ostensibly because of immigration?
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mark Udall has now moved to within 2% of Gardner on: November 20, 2014, 02:35:51 am
At what rate does Colorado normal vote at in Presidentia years and what was it in 2010?

That is 20% higher then nationally. For all the talk about low turnout deciding the outcome, the hot races seem to have turned out pretty well (CO, ME etc). The places that didn't had nothing contested like IN.

I think the map in the Senate and gerrymandering in the House are somewhat responsbile for the low turnout numbers.
88  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 20, 2014, 02:30:55 am
Thirty-seven percent of independents back Obama’s plan to take action if Congress does not move forward on immigration reform, while 47 percent disapprove of such action.

If this poll is accurate there is a winning coalition for a Republican in opposting to this (whilst supporting a compassionate "legislative" reform) with only +6 amongst Hispanics and -9 amongst Indies.
89  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 20, 2014, 02:25:14 am
Poll just showed on CNBC showed at Latino support for this is 43-37. Black support is the largest at 65-12.

Granted a large MOE, but that said, a +6 margin amongst in a group that voted for Obama by 46.

The only way this is a winner for Democrats in 2016 as a political move is if it is at 80% amongst Hispanics or at least 70%. Sub 50% or just above 50% (assuming 9 MOE) just won't cut it. 65-35 is low enough for FL to flip and for CO to be a nailbitter.

The 12% amongst blacks seems kind of low but it is almost three times as large as that which voted Republican in 2008 and 2012. 12% would make OH about 2% closer with regards to the 2012 results. The rest of the gap is all amongst working class whites who are not highly religious (and thus social issues weren't a motivation to overlook the fact that they were turned off by Romney. This is also why Romney didn't do so well in Maine, heavily working class but infrequent church attendence). 

90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Alaska Governor called for Walker! on: November 20, 2014, 02:07:13 am
Miller has far more in common with Walker then with Parnell at this point and not just because of Palin's endorsement but also the part about running against the oil alligned elements of the GOP.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich attacks Walker for ignoring facts and being too partisan on: November 20, 2014, 02:04:21 am
Another hinderance Kasich faces is the NRA. He has either a D or an F from that organization for his time in Congress as he supported gun control, typical for a Republican representing a surburban domnated district in the 1980's and early 1990's.
92  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Speaker Declaration/Election Thread (Bore Wins on: November 20, 2014, 01:56:21 am
A majority having been cast in favor of bore, Senator bore is thus elected Speaker.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich attacks Walker for ignoring facts and being too partisan on: November 20, 2014, 01:48:40 am
I like Kasich. I think overall he has the right ideas. Unfortunately, I can't see him making it through a primary. Look at what he said about immigration for instance.

If I am not mistaken, Walker endorsed the Senate Immigration Bill or at least a path to citizenship in 2013.

Kasich's statement of "I am not closed to the idea" is thus more conservative a stance then Walker has on the issue unless Walker backtracked.
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is Maine trending GOP? on: November 19, 2014, 02:30:18 am
Its rather high for a protest vote that leaps such a large ideological hurdle. 
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama's Exec Order a landmine in waiting for GOP in 2016 on: November 19, 2014, 02:23:58 am
Not to mention the fact that the Democrats were already winning by wide margins amongst Blacks stemming from what, you guessed it, the economy and jobs. By 1930, both Parties had thrown them under the bus and so they started voting for the ones that would get them a job.

The difference between getting 30% and 10%-15% (before and after CRA) was because it took forty years for a Republican to even lift a finger to try and win black voters and Bush's 16% in OH actually helped to win the election in 2004. Nixon was trying to play both sides publically (opposing busing, whilst in action moving aggressively to desegregate Southern schools), a strategy geared to win white moderates not African American's. Reagan never really tried and his statements both in 1980 and later his approach to South Africa weren't exactly popular in the community.

Sheer necessity would force the effort to be forthcoming and if 1936 is evidence of anything it is that kitchen table issues can often have the last word (FDR didn't do a thing except kotow to the Southern Democrats), yet he was the first Democrat to win African-Americans.
96  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which election was better? on: November 19, 2014, 02:08:42 am
2010. Jim DeMint killed absolutely any likelihood of the GOP capturing the Senate that year.

Not single handedly. Even if you give credit to Jim DeMint for costing us CO, DE and NV, you are still one seat short, and Republicans got their strongest possible candidate in WA the next closest seat. Granted, if Capito had run in 2010 she might have won, but unlike in 2014, the GOP was not ready to capitalize on the environment there from an organizational standpoint. Though Raese was obviously not a good choice, I don't think there were any better ones aside from Capito that would have made a difference.

On the other hand, the establishment blew CT and CA by rallying to the moneybag computer lady and moneybag wrestling lady respectively instead of the moderate former Republican Congressmen Tom Campbell and Rob Simmons. Ironically the one person who spreads the blame wholly to both sides (tea party and establishment) is Ann Coulter.

At the end of the day Republicans had a bad map (the 2004 map) to go into 2010 with and even if they had run the table they still would have come up short most likely by a seat or two.
97  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Confirmation Hearing: Flo for SoIA/Interior on: November 19, 2014, 01:11:11 am
AYE
98  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Confirmation Hearing: ZuWo for AG on: November 19, 2014, 01:10:00 am
AYE
99  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Confirmation Hearing: RPryor for Deputy AG on: November 19, 2014, 01:08:30 am
Based on the desired titling, I would assume you will be primarily focused on wiki modernization and updates. First off, the obligatory question here is if you have a wiki account and if not, how soon you foresee getting one?

Second of all, whilst your primary focus is such, do you foresee any involvement in the more legal aspects, particularily if the AG is absent for a period of time?
100  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Speaker Declaration/Election Thread (NOW VOTING!!!!) on: November 19, 2014, 01:00:48 am
Official ballot:
[X] bore
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