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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Reuters/Ipsos. Trump +2 on: Today at 05:29:04 pm
Ouch. I don't know why pollsters are wasting money polling right now though, why not just wait till next week?

Don't we want to know the bounce Trump received from the RNC?  How are we going to know if pollsters don't poll this week?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / DNC TV Ratings on: Today at 05:25:28 pm
The official Nielsen DNC TV ratings are in for yesterday:

Monday: 26 Million

Monday's DNC drew more viewers than Monday's RNC, and was down very slightly from the first night in 2012 - about 300,000 viewers.

More to come.
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: Today at 09:36:51 am
Okay, since apparently nobody else has anything to say on the matter, I propose that we (a) immediately strike Section 3 of Article VII; and (b) adopt Scott's bill mandating a referendum on the Regional capital alongside the ratification vote on the Constitution. If there are no objections, we will move ahead with a final vote on the Constitution posted above, less 7.3, on Wednesday morning.

Where is Scott's bill?  I think we shouldn't strike Section 3, but say "The capital of the North shall be determined by the referendum run at the time of the ratification of this constitution."
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/24 - Trump +4 on: July 25, 2016, 09:54:58 am
7/24: Trump 45.4, Clinton 41.3 for Trump +4.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3 on: July 24, 2016, 09:17:59 am
With decimals, it's 45.1 Trump, 41.7 Clinton.
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: July 23, 2016, 11:57:59 pm
At Scott's request, I offer the following amendment:

Quote
ARTICLE VII
Implementation.

...
Section 3. The seat of government shall be at New York City, New York, until otherwise specified by law.

I am interested to here what the rest of the Committee thinks of this.

I don't like the idea of the capital being changed by simple law.  It makes incessant capital moves more likely, which is costly.  It should be in the constitution.

I have no problem holding a referendum on the capital congruent with the ratification vote.  Give people until the Thursday before the vote to nominate cities.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Staten Island on: July 23, 2016, 10:58:55 pm
Trump will win Staten Island, probably by high single digits.  As others have said, he crushed there in the primary.
He also "crushed" in every New York City borough except Manhattan. Think he's going to win those, too? Is he also going to win in Nevada? He "crushed" there as well.

Not really.  Trump crushed in the non-Hispanic White ethnic portions of the outer boroughs.  Not orthodox Jewish places like Borough Park.  Not the black or Latino areas of those boroughs (and where he did, there were few Republican votes).  Not in the gentrified parts of those boroughs.  There simply aren't enough of those white ethnic pockets for him to win the other boroughs, even if the orthodox vote goes to Trump.  There are in Staten Island.  That's the big difference.  Again, I offer up my zoomable NYC precinct-level map on carto.com for you to do your own analysis.

Trump will do well in the Nevada cow counties and be competitive in Washoe.  Trump did well in resort towns in the primaries, and I expect that trend to continue in the general.  He'll likely lose Clark County and the state, though.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-Democratic convention discussion LATEST: Superdelegate rules com. comprimise on: July 23, 2016, 10:49:00 pm
Some more speakers of people with personal stories have been announced:

Monday

Pam Livengood - Daughter is struggling with addiction

Karla & Francisca Ortiz - Citizens who fear their undocumented parents will be deported

Anastasia Somoza - Has cerebral palsy, is spastic quadriplegia, and an advocate for Americans with intellectual and developmental disabilities

Tuesday

Thaddeus Desmond - child advocate social worker

Dynah Haubert - lawyer who works for a disability rights organization and teaches those with disabilities to advocate for themselves

Kate Burdick - a staff attorney at the Juvenile Law Center

Anton Moore - founded and runs a nonprofit community group that strives to bring awareness and educate youth on gun violence

Dustin Parsons - a fifth grade teacher

Students from Eagle Academy - at-risk youth in New York City

Joe Sweeney - detective with the NYPD on September 11, 2001

Lauren Manning - one of the most catastrophically wounded survivors of 9/11

Ryan Moore - has spondyloepiphyseal Dysplasia dwarfism and an advocate for health care reform

Wednesday

Erica Smegielski - daughter of the principal of Sandy Hook Elementary

Felicia Sanders & Polly Sheppard - two of the three survivors of the Mother Emanuel Church shooting

Jamie Dorff - wife of an Army helicopter pilot from Minnesota who died while on a search and rescue mission in northern Iraq

Thursday

Henrietta Ivey - home care worker and Fight for $15 campaigner

Beth Mathias - works two jobs and her husband works the nightshift at a factory

Jensen Walcott & Jake Reed - ensen was fired from her job at a pizza restaurant in Bonner Springs, KS for asking her boss why she was paid 25 cents less than her male co-worker and friend, Jake.

Khizr Khan - Father of Humayun S. M. Khan, a Muslim-American solider who died in service

That's a much better list than the loads and loads of boring politicians the DNC has scheduled.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Northern Mideastern Alliance: Founder Opposes Current Northern Draft Consitution on: July 23, 2016, 10:43:07 pm
Right now I'm trying to work with Truman and the Committee and propose a referendum process that allows voters to nominate cities and vote on them in the referendum IRV-style.  I think this is an acceptable compromise we can look towards if we erase the relevant provision to the proposed Constitution.

This would be acceptable if there is also a provision to the Regions Bill of Rights that ensures equality between between the Northeast and Mideast.

Why is that even necessary?  The Bill of Rights already applies to all citizens, regardless of former region.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: July 23, 2016, 10:41:29 pm
Cross-posting:

Quote
As the founder of NMEA, I oppose the current draft constitution for the Northern Region as written and will continue to oppose it until the capital is moved to a more centralized location and there are protections put in place to protect the people of the Mideast.

The capital of the old Mideast was in Maryland, which was hardly a central location for the region.  I offered Pittsburgh, which is pretty central, but no one voted for it but me.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: July 23, 2016, 10:40:08 pm
One nit:

Article I, Section 3 says that if fewer than 5 run for Assembly, 3 are elected, but if 6 or more run, 5 are elected.  What happens if there are just 5 is unclear.  Fewer than 5 should probably be 5 or fewer, no?

Otherwise, the draft looks okay.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Staten Island on: July 23, 2016, 08:50:41 pm
Trump will win Staten Island, probably by high single digits.  As others have said, he crushed there in the primary.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/22 - Trump +2 on: July 23, 2016, 07:50:58 am
If you heart decimals, it's Trump 44.2, Clinton 42.3.

By the way, for my headline, I've been rounding the difference, not the numbers.  So if it's Clinton +0.6, I say Clinton +1.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RNC TV Ratings on: July 23, 2016, 12:46:36 am
PBS put out a press release claiming it had 2.75 million viewers during yesterday's 10-11PM hour.  That would put the total TV viewership around 35 million - perhaps just under 35 million if you factor in some people turning off their TVs in the 11:00PM hour when the speech overran.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: July 22, 2016, 11:32:21 pm
I support this, too.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kaine vs. Pence VP debate discussion thread on: July 22, 2016, 09:50:58 pm
In case anyone is wondering, the highest-rated Vice Presidential Debate was Biden-Palin in 2008, with 69.9 million viewers.  The lowest-rated was Gore-Kemp in 1996, with 26.6 million viewers, followed by Cheney-Lieberman in 2000 (29 million viewers).

51.4 million watched Biden-Ryan in 2012.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Echelon Insights National - Clinton +1 on: July 22, 2016, 09:28:26 pm
This is a Republican pollster by the way. That Trump isn't leading after the convention should be very troubling.

It's a #NeverTrump Republican pollster, though.  I'd wait for more polls before determining who has the post-convention lead.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Echelon Insights National - Clinton +1 on: July 22, 2016, 06:58:53 pm
Clinton still winning after the GOP convention? Nice

Best I can tell, there was no prior poll, so we can't measure Trump's post-convention bump, if any.  For all we know, their hypothetical prior poll could have been one of the Trump +7 or Clinton +13 outliers.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 06:57:08 pm
https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/756635399909408768 MSNBC indicating pick "possibly" coming in the next 30-60 minutes...

It's been possibly coming all day.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Echelon Insights National - Clinton +1 on: July 22, 2016, 06:55:01 pm
Echelon-@lucid_hq *Post-Convention* poll (RV)
Clinton 40
Trump 39
Johnson 3
Stein 2
Undecided 17

Clinton 45
Trump 41
Undecided 15

N=911

Likely Voters
Clinton 42
Trump 41
Johnson 3
Stein 2
Undecided 12

Clinton 47
Trump 42
Undecided 11

N=740

Amongst likely voters who voted for @BernieSanders in the primary:

Clinton 62
Trump 18
Undecided 19
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Instant Poll of Speech Watchers on: July 22, 2016, 06:15:14 pm
GOPTarheel on RRHElections says the partisan breakdown of the poll was 41% Republicans, 23% Democrats, 36% Independents.  I still can't find a working link to the poll.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Would Fund Super PACs to Defeat Cruz, Kasich on: July 22, 2016, 05:48:10 pm
Your link doesn't work.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 05:45:09 pm
MSNBC anchor says she could announce it any minute now

Clinton has about 15 minutes to get her choice on the broadcast networks' evening news.  Friday evening announcements usually don't get much notice.  That's usually reserved for bad news.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RNC TV Ratings on: July 22, 2016, 05:35:55 pm
Far below McCain? Sad!

McCain's speech was after Labor Day, when more people are home watching TV.  It had one of the best possible lead-ins on one of the broadcast networks - an NFL game.  And it also followed Sarah Palin's very highly viewed speech on the prior day.

Trump's acceptance speech was the second-most viewed RNC acceptance speech ever, I think.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RNC TV Ratings on: July 22, 2016, 04:07:33 pm
32.2 Million, according to the official Nielsen press release.
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