Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 26, 2016, 07:38:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 390
1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City and Town estimates on: Today at 12:06:31 am
I updated the maps to fix data integrity issues.  Of County Subs, only data for one town was wrong.  Data for a number of Places in the alphabetically first of the 30 other states was off, though.  It's all been fixed.

While making the update, I also calculated percentage change from the 2010 Population Estimate for jurisdictions that didn't have 2010 Census data, instead of leaving them as N/A.  These are most likely places incorporated after 2010.  I also put the data for all of Honolulu County instead of just the remainder, since the map doesn't include the Urban Honolulu CDP (even though Census included estimates for that geography).
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City and Town estimates on: Today at 12:01:25 am


There are a number of county remainders with unexpected declines like that. From the 2010-2015 map, some of the most striking ones are:

DeKalb County GA
Williamson County TX
Rockwall County TX
El Paso County TX
Utah County UT
Salt Lake County UT
Davis County UT
Riverside County CA
Santa Clara County CA
King County WA

Unincorporated Dekalb County, GA's "decline" is almost entirely due to the creation of a new city, Brookhaven, in 2012.  If I compared populations to the 2010 Census estimates (which Census revises backwards), DeKalb would gain population.

Unincorporated Williamson County, TX's decrease is likely due to a 15,000-resident annexation by Austin.  Unincorporated Rockwall County, TX only lost 440 residents from the 2010 Census, but since the population base is less than 10,000, that loss gets amplified. There probably were a few small annexations there. Unincorporated El Paso County, TX's population loss was due to the incorporation of San Elizario in 2013.

The populations of the unincorporated portions of two of the three Utah counties are fairly small.  Unincorporated Davis County, Utah has a very small population - around 3,600 now, down from around 3,800 in 2010.  Unincorporated Utah County had about 10,000 people as of 2010, and 8750 today.  My guess is some annexation occurred. Very few people live outside of those Utah counties' cities.  Unincorporated Salt Lake County has many more residents, about 145,000, only down slightly from about 146,000 in the 2010 Census.  Minor annexations probably explain this minor decrease.

Unincorporated Riverside County, CA's decrease was due to the incorporation of two cities, Jurupa Valley and Eastvale.  Unincorporated Santa Clara, CA's relatively small decrease was likely due to an annexation by San Jose.

I can't pinpoint the reason for the significant Unincorporated King County, WA drop.  Three cities appear to have annexed some territory, but the population difference might not be enough to explain the whole change.

I could always base the percentage change for the county remainders on the 2010 population estimates, if you think that would make more sense.  I'd use the estimate numbers for the Incorporated Places, too, to be consistent.
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Candidate Declaration Thread on: May 25, 2016, 07:38:35 pm
I am running for Governor of the Northeast.

Did you mean Governor of the North, or do you mean in the June Northeast election if the Senate isn't seated by then and the Northeast still exists.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Political Ad Megathread on: May 25, 2016, 07:31:30 pm
In the past few days, pro-Clinton Priorities USA released another :30 second ad on YouTube:

-How to Avoid Showing Your Taxes features Donald Trump's sometimes inconsistent reasons for not disclosing his tax returns.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Election for Speaker: Northeast Assembly on: May 25, 2016, 04:30:40 pm
Unless something has recently changed, if Abraham Washington is the only nominee for Speaker after the nomination period ends, he becomes Speaker without the need for a vote. 

I believe you are right.


By this measure Abraham Washington is elected Speaker of the Northeast Assembly.

Do I have to be sworn-in on the swearing-in thread or no?

I don't think Speakers have traditionally sworn in as such.  It's just another title for someone already in an office, not a separate office.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 25, 2016, 04:17:08 pm
Quote
The audit also blames the State Department itself for being slow to adapt its policies to changing technology.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/05/25/state-department-deals-death-blow-republican-partys-clinton-email-scandal.html

Also from that link:

Quote
Clinton didn’t handle her email well, but neither did previous Republican Secretaries of State.

The real scandal that should matter to voters is that Republicans in Congress have wasted millions of dollars investigating a “scandal about nothing.”

Did other Secretaries of State create their own e-mail servers to get around record retention and disclosure laws?  I don't think so.

If you are talking "motivation", then can you prove that her intention was to "get around record retention and disclosure laws"? I don't think you can, because her intention was convenience.

Hillary Clinton destroyed government property by deleting and not turning over work-related e-mails asked for in the investigation.  The IG basically confrims this.  And if Hillary Clinton's intention was "convenience", why is there an e-mail of Clinton saying that she used the server so that "personal" e-mails (as defined by her) wouldn't get retained by the government.

Sorry.  Most employees are perfectly capable of maintaing separate e-mail accounts for work and personal matters.  It's not rocket science.
7  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: 2016 Republican Primary Map Colors on: May 25, 2016, 03:47:08 pm
The second.  The problem with Dave's colors is that red and orange tend to bleed at high levels, so determining who won counties/precincts in states that Kasich and Trump were competitive in isn't easy.  Giving Kasich blue solves that problem, even if it tends to bleed with Rubio's green at low levels.  Rubio won more counties than Kasich, so giving Trump green would cause more problems than good.

The bleeding problem can probably be solved by keeping the second map, except giving Rubio purple and Carson green.  Carson didn't win much, so there would be less bleed.
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Election for Speaker: Northeast Assembly on: May 25, 2016, 03:18:26 pm
Unless something has recently changed, if Abraham Washington is the only nominee for Speaker after the nomination period ends, he becomes Speaker without the need for a vote. 
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton E-Mail Use Violated Rules, State Department Audit Finds on: May 25, 2016, 02:43:42 pm
Quote
The audit also blames the State Department itself for being slow to adapt its policies to changing technology.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/05/25/state-department-deals-death-blow-republican-partys-clinton-email-scandal.html

Also from that link:

Quote
Clinton didn’t handle her email well, but neither did previous Republican Secretaries of State.

The real scandal that should matter to voters is that Republicans in Congress have wasted millions of dollars investigating a “scandal about nothing.”

Did other Secretaries of State create their own e-mail servers to get around record retention and disclosure laws?  I don't think so.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City and Town estimates on: May 25, 2016, 12:45:04 pm
I'll take an in-depth look at one of those counties if I have time tonight to make sure I just didn't mess something up when doing the county conversions (some counties have no Places, and I had to combine those with those that do).  It would also be interesting to see whether this is due to annexation or something else, like the methodology Census uses to determine sub-county population growth.  I would expect they allocate to the Places first and the remainder of the county last, which could automatically lead to less population being allocated to the remainder than the incorporated Places.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City and Town estimates on: May 25, 2016, 01:54:18 am
I finished the county layer.  The data is mainly for the remainder of the county not in incorporated places, so you'll see unexpected declines in places like El Paso County, Texas, probably due to annexations by El Paso City.  The county layer can only be seen for the 30 non-County Sub states.

Let me know if you see any obvious data errors. 
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City and Town estimates on: May 24, 2016, 11:34:03 pm
I added incorporated Places in the South and Southwest to the existing maps.  You need to zoom in on them to really see.  They are mere islands as part of the larger state.

There may be a data integrity issue with some of these Places due to an Excel cut and paste error.  Let me know if something seems off.  Clicking on a geography will give you specific stats about it, assuming you're using a computer or tablet with Flash.

I'm working on the remainder of the counties layer now.  I'll probably have that up by tomorrow.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City and Town estimates on: May 24, 2016, 10:06:33 pm
Very nicely done! It would be cool to see the high growth states in the south and southwest, even if it is not possible on the same level of detail.

The county lines really stand out in a lot of cases in a way which I presume is not realistic. There are a lot of sharp changes at county lines, whereas in reality one would expect more smooth variation. Did you do anything like use county level data if there was not municipal data, or is that a reflection of imprecision in the data?

I had to simplify the County Sub shapefiles because the original census shapefiles are over 100MB and I only have 250 MB in my whole CartoDB account, which has other maps.  That probably explains why some of the County Sub lines zig and zag more than you'd expect - or you might be looking at some County Subdivisions in states with bizarre annexation laws, which allows for cities with jagged lines.

I am working on using Census Places for the South and Southwest.  Since those areas don't cover most of the country, I'm going to try to use the U.S. County map as the base layer there, assuming I can overcome a technical hurdle.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City and Town estimates on: May 24, 2016, 06:51:22 pm
I've put together a maps of the percentage change from 2014-2015  and 2010-2015 in each of the 20 states that fully or partially uses County Subdivisions as their main muncipalities:
County Subdivision 2014-15 Change Map
County Subdivision 2010-15 Change Map

These states are exclusively in the Northeast and Midwest, running from Maine to North Dakota excluding Iowa - but coverage gets spotty west of the Mississippi for some reason.   I don't think it's a data integrity issue, but a lack of data for those County Subs issue (we have data for Places, as defined by the Census Bureau in some of those states, but not County Subs, and there's no data for some (but not all) UTs in North and South Dakota).

This map is preliminary.  I'm going to try to add percent change by Census Place in the other states, but a lot of the Census Places are CDPs that aren't incorporated, and the Census population estimate generally only included incorporated areas.  I'll update this post when I do.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: May 2016 Regional Committee Elections on: May 24, 2016, 01:06:14 pm
NORTHERN REGIONAL COMMITTEE - SEVEN SEATS


[5] Blair2015 of New York
Labor Party



[1] cinyc of New York
Independent



[6] darthebearnc of Wisconsin
Labor Party



[7] evergreen of Illinois
Independent Green



[2] Harry S Truman of Indiana
Labor Party



[4] Kingpoleon of New Jersey
Independent



[3] RGN08 of New York
Federalist Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: May Election (Includes Vote to Ratify 4th Constitution) on: May 23, 2016, 12:49:10 am

Official Results - Northeast May 2016 Election
Total voters: 18
Invalid votes:
-dkrolga (Failed 7 day residency requirement)
-ascott (Failed 7 day residency requirement)
Total Valid Voters: 16

Northeast Representative
Only 12 valid votes were cast for Assembly.  Voters who skipped the race won't be counted toward the quota.
Quota = integer[12/(1+1) + 1] = integer[6 + 1] = 7

Abraham Washington declared that he would accept write-ins and wrote himself in.  No other valid candidate not on the ballot wrote themselves in or declared in the official declaration thread.  Votes for all Northeasterners not on the official ballot will not be counted and preferences ignored.

ClarkKent's vote for Abraham Reagan will be considered as a vote for Abraham Washington, because I can determine intent.

First Preference Count:
Abraham Wasington 9 (cxs018, Kingpoleon, ClarkKent, Enduro, RGN08, Abraham Washington, cinyc, SNJ1985, Poirot)
Exhausted 3 (Winfield, Blair2015, JoMCaR)

Abraham Washington exceeds quota and is elected Northeast Representative.

Referendum to amend the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia and ratify the Fourth Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia
Aye 13 (cxs018, LongLiveRock, Winfield, Pessimistic Antineutrino, ClarkKent, Enduro, Clyde1988, Blair2015, JoMCaR, pikachu, RGN08, Abraham Washington, cinyc)
Nay 1 (Poirot)

The referendum passes.

x CJO cinyc
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Northeast CJO cinyc (May Election Results Posted) on: May 23, 2016, 12:48:40 am

Official Results - Northeast May 2016 Election
Total voters: 18
Invalid votes:
-dkrolga (Failed 7 day residency requirement)
-ascott (Failed 7 day residency requirement)
Total Valid Voters: 16

Northeast Representative
Only 12 valid votes were cast for Assembly.  Voters who skipped the race won't be counted toward the quota.
Quota = integer[12/(1+1) + 1] = integer[6 + 1] = 7

Abraham Washington declared that he would accept write-ins and wrote himself in.  No other valid candidate not on the ballot wrote themselves in or declared in the official declaration thread.  Votes for all Northeasterners not on the official ballot will not be counted and preferences ignored.

ClarkKent's vote for Abraham Reagan will be considered as a vote for Abraham Washington, because I can determine intent.

First Preference Count:
Abraham Wasington 9 (cxs018, Kingpoleon, ClarkKent, Enduro, RGN08, Abraham Washington, cinyc, SNJ1985, Poirot)
Exhausted 3 (Winfield, Blair2015, JoMCaR)

Abraham Washington exceeds quota and is elected Northeast Representative.

Referendum to amend the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia and ratify the Fourth Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia
Aye 13 (cxs018, LongLiveRock, Winfield, Pessimistic Antineutrino, ClarkKent, Enduro, Clyde1988, Blair2015, JoMCaR, pikachu, RGN08, Abraham Washington, cinyc)
Nay 1 (Poirot)

The referendum passes.

x CJO cinyc
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: May Election (Includes Vote to Ratify 4th Constitution) on: May 23, 2016, 12:25:35 am
This voting booth is now closed.  It's obvious who and what won, but I need to validate and tally the votes.  This thread is locked until then.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Political Ad Megathread on: May 22, 2016, 11:49:35 pm
Priorities USA came out with one more :30 second ad over the past few days.  There's no oral disclaimer, so it's probably just a web ad - for now:

-In What a Con Man, the PAC highlights Trump's "very successful companies", like Trump Mortgage, Trump Network, Trump Airline, Trump Steaks, Trump Magazine, Trump Vodka and Trump University - all failures or frauds, the PAC claims.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: May 22, 2016, 10:25:43 pm
cinyc, is it safe to assume most of that yellow in the Republican map is Cruz? The keys for 10-30% Trump and 50-70% Cruz look very similar.

Yes, the yellow/gold on the map is Cruz.  I probably shouldn't have included the 10-20% colors in the key - it's mathematically unlikely for someone to win a precinct with that low a percentage because there were no write-ins.

You can check the actual vote numbers by clicking on the precincts on the CartoDB map I linked above.  Wincode there is just the color code plus the percentage of the vote received.  (I'm still learning how to use that website - I think I added a legend to the Republican Primary Map that sort of works now).

Choosing orange, yellow and red as the three candidate colors is kind of a bad idea due to bleed, but that's what Atlas has chosen for these candidates.  Blue, yellow and red would have been better, but the field was larger at one time, and Rubio got blue (or was it green?).
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: May 22, 2016, 05:10:34 pm
Here's the Democratic side in NYC:

Manhattan:


Bronx:


Brooklyn & Queens:


Staten Island:


The CartoDB map is available here:
NYC Democratic Primary

I've also made CartoDB heat maps for Sanders and Clinton percentages, here:
Clinton
Sanders

The total Democratic Votes Cast per Precinct map is available here.  They looks much different than the Republican maps.  Democrats are everywhere in NYC!:
Bubble Map
Heat Map
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: May 22, 2016, 01:59:47 pm
Official results for New York City 2016 Republican Primary by Precinct.  The NYC Board of Elections released Carson's numbers, so I've included him, too, even if his votes didn't count.  Per the standard Atlas colors, Trump is in Orange, Kasich in Red, Cruz in Yellow/Gold, Carson in Purple using standard Atlas gradation:

Manhattan:


Staten Island:


Brooklyn & Queens:


Bronx:


I've been playing around with CartoDB.com, which is where the maps come from this time instead of my usual MapWindowGIS. There is a  zoomable maps of the winner of each precinct here:
Winner Map.

I also made heat maps for each of the four candidates, showing their percentage in each precinct.  These use the standard Atlas color breaks for the respective colors of each candidate:
Trump
Kasich
Cruz
Carson

I also made two maps of the total votes cast in the Republican Primary.  This more or less correlates with where the white ethnics live in NYC:
Heat Map (7 breaks)
Bubble Map

Democratic Primary results forthcoming later this week.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: May Election (Includes Vote to Ratify 4th Constitution) on: May 21, 2016, 12:57:38 pm
Official Ballot

Northeast Representative

One person will be elected to the Assembly
[1] Write-in: Abraham Washington
[2] Write-in: Poirot

Referendum to amend the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia and ratify the Fourth Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia
The text of the proposed Fourth Constitution is too long to fit in one post.  It is available here.
[X] Aye
[ ] Nay
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Office of Senator Truman (On Arizona and the ACCMA) on: May 21, 2016, 01:00:59 am
Furthermore, I can announce that - with the passage of the First Amendment to the Fourth Constitution, the possibility of a succession crisis has been averted. For those of you who don't spend your free time looking for typos in our governing documents, what happened was this: until recently, the proposed Fourth Constitution contained a clause that would have forced President Griffin to vacate his office three weeks before the next presidential election. Fortunately, the Senate was quick on the uptake and passed an amendment rectifying this mistake, allowing the president to finish the term he was elected to. Once the new Regional Legislative Committees are established, I will forward this amendment to them so that it may be swiftly ratified without any further ado.

How can the Regional Legislative Committees ratify anything?  The new constitution says:

Quote
The committees will be empowered to organize the election of the first Senate, and then to devise a permanent Constitution establishing a permanent government for their Region. But under no circumstances shall the committees presume to legislate on matters not pertaining to either of the aforementioned tasks, and shall be immediately dissolved upon their completion.

I don't see any power there to ratify amendments.  Just to promptly create a constitution that allows for prompt amending (unlike in the Northeast now).

Since the current governments remain in power until the Senate and House are seated, isn't the correct answer to forward these proposed amendments to the current regions for ratification? Unfortunately, the Northeast can't vote until the penultimate weekend of June, but the other regions can open booths immediately.  If all 4 pass the proposed amendments, they'll become law, anyway.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Political Tracker - Fourth Constitution Special (PA and ME say Yes!) on: May 21, 2016, 12:38:18 am
Dkrol is in the same position, I think.  He just re-registered in Atlasia in the past few days, and is not on the last voter registry.  So his vote should be invalid, and he's not a valid candidate for Assembly despite writing himself in. 

I haven't fully vetted the other voters - I usually wait until the election is over.

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 390


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines