Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 30, 2017, 05:45:19 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 429
1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Anti-abortion activists who made illegal videos of PP charged w/ 15 felonies on: Today at 01:09:37 am
That's up for a court of law to decide. I don't know the details of the case, but I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be prosecuted it what they did was constitutionally protected speech. Or do you want to scream political persecution as well?

There is no question that this is a political witch hunt by an activist hack Attorney General against people who made his abortionist friends look bad.  He doesn't bring similar cases against 60 Minutes or local TV stations or even those animal rights activists who go to farms and slaughterhouses to tape what is going on there.  It is selective prosecution of certain members of the press for their political views.  And as I've explained before, you don't need to work for the mainstream media to be a protected member of the press under the First Amendment.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Anti-abortion activists who made illegal videos of PP charged w/ 15 felonies on: Today at 12:15:47 am
We need to send Federal Troops into the rogue state of California pronto. These people are absolutely NUTS!

Or President Trump can grow a pair and pardon them.

"Breaking the law is OK if the people doing it share my political views."

When was the last time 60 Minutes or the local news in California were prosecuted by the California AG for a hidden camera expose?  Or the animal rights activists who go on farms to tape what is going on there?  Answer - never.  So how can the citizen journalists who exposed Planned Parenthood's baby parts selling be prosecuted under that law?  They cannot.  Their actions are protected by the First Amendment.

And, as far as I know, Trump can't pardon anyone for state crime.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Anti-abortion activists who made illegal videos of PP charged w/ 15 felonies on: Today at 12:08:01 am
They violated the assumption of confidentiality between a counselor and a patient -- and thus medical ethics. Lock 'em up!


Patients can waive any client-patient confidentiality whenever they want and to whomever they want.  Otherwise, you couldn't tell your spouse or friend or parents or whomever about what the doctor told you.  That makes no sense.  So that can't be it.

The alleged "issue" is that they publicly taped the Planned Parenthood representatives talking about selling baby parts... in a public place, where there is no expectation of privacy, regardless of what any law says.  The activist California AG will lose this case, badly.  It is the very definition of a partisan witch hunt by a partisan hack.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you browse Atlas on your phone? on: March 29, 2017, 04:57:46 pm
Other: Sometimes, but I don't want the site to have a specific mobile theme - if I can't turn it off.  I don't like viewing mobile themed sites on my phone.  They often lack the functionality of full sites.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should a poster being an inconsiderate jerk be a violation of the TOS? on: March 29, 2017, 04:51:38 pm
No.  That criteria is too vague, and would be used as an excuse to ban those outside of the political mainstream here.

Besides, a lot of the times when a poster is viewed by the mainstream as an inconsiderate jerk, it's because he or she is mercilessly attacked by those in the political mainstream of this site and is responding to the attacks.  The attack mob never gets banned or even admonished, just the person out of the political mainstream.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The Franco American vote in 2016 on: March 29, 2017, 03:28:12 pm
On average, precincts with over >40% of the population claiming French ancestry swung about 4 points toward Trump, which is actually pretty small for white ancestry groups.

Does that include those with French Canadian ancestry, or just those with ties to France?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Reuters: Breaking with tradition, Republican orgs. to go after Democratic AGs on: March 29, 2017, 12:37:43 pm
Good.  None of these agreements should exist.  I should have a meaningful choice in every election, whether it be in a D+30 Congressional seat, Attorney General, or the most local of local elections.   All these agreements do is stop me from having a choice in elections, forcing me to vote for a Democrat, write someone in, or not vote in that all. 

The cross-endorsing of judicial candidates in New York is the worst example of it.
8  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: March 28, 2017, 09:33:59 pm
I will also point out that I believe that if Eharding was a liberal, he wouldn't have been banned.
There is 0 evidence he was banned for his views.

There is no question Eharding was banned for his views.  The intolerant "progressive" mob that dominates here constantly attacks outspoken conservative posters, gets all surprised when a conservative they attack actually fights back, calls for their banning for having the temerity to fight back, and ultimately gets their way.  This scenario has played out over and over and over again.

And I don't want to hear how the mod cave is "full" of blue avatars.  There may be some mods with blue avatars, but most, if not all, are moderates, not conservatives.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: March 23, 2017, 09:19:06 pm
When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).

Great! 

Hopefully, I'll find the time to update the maps I made last year, like the 2014-2015 Percentage Change Map for those incorporated places, minor civil divisions (and CDPs?).
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State Department to Approve Keystone XL Pipeline on: March 23, 2017, 08:28:49 pm
Good.

Any oil pipeline is at risk of being compromised, and this damn thing goes right over some of the largest aquifers in the nation.

So do train tracks.  And an oil train accident could blow up a town.  Why do you think pipeline transport is more dangerous than train transport, which is the most likely alternative?  And why do you prefer Saudi or Venezuelan oil to North American oil, which is the alternative if you do the really dumb thing and stop people from drilling for oil here?

What do you think about spending our time and money developing renewable resources instead of destroying the land, creating a possible environmental hazard, and pissing off a lot of people in the process?

No thanks.  Wind farms aren't good for the environment.  They kill birds, decimate views, and are uneconomical in providing power at times of peak demand when the wind isn't blowing.  New dams and nuclear power plants will never get built because of liberal and NIMBY opposition to anything that makes economic sense.  And don't get me started on solar.

I'll take what works over false promises that sunshine and unicorn farts will power the future.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: March 23, 2017, 08:06:57 pm
When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State Department to Approve Keystone XL Pipeline on: March 23, 2017, 07:58:49 pm
Good.

Any oil pipeline is at risk of being compromised, and this damn thing goes right over some of the largest aquifers in the nation.

So do train tracks.  And an oil train accident could blow up a town.  Why do you think pipeline transport is more dangerous than train transport, which is the most likely alternative?  And why do you prefer Saudi or Venezuelan oil to North American oil, which is the alternative if you do the really dumb thing and stop people from drilling for oil here?
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2016 Census County Estimates on: March 23, 2017, 07:15:46 pm
The 10 fastest-growing counties with a 2016 population of 10,000+ from 2015-16:
1) San Juan, Utah (Monticello/Blanding) +7.56% - I have no idea what is fueling growth in SE Utah
2) Kendall, Texas (Boerne) +5.16% (NW San Antonio suburban/exurban sprawl)
3) Hays, Texas (San Marcos) +5.09% (SE Austin suburban/exurban sprawl)
4) Wasatch, Utah (Heber City) +4.67% (Provo/SLC exurban sprawl)
5) Dallas, Iowa (Waukee) +4.63% (W Des Moines suburban/exurban sprawl)
6) Comal, Texas (New Braunfels) +4.40% (NE San Antonio suburban/exurban sprawl)
7) Sumter, Florida (The Villages) +4.30% (Continued retirement home growth in America's Friendliest Hometown TM - or so the ads claim)
8) Crook, Oregon (Prineville) +4.26% (Sprawl from the Redmond/Bend area of Oregon, which has been growing)
9) Juab, Utah (Eureka/Nephi) +4.20% (Provo exurban sprawl)
4.20%
10) Kittitas, Washington (Ellensburg/Cle Elum) +4.20 (Exurban sprawl over the mountains from Seattle, perhaps?)

And the biggest percentage losers of the 10,000+ set:
10) San Juan, New Mexico (Farmington) -3.05% (Probably partly due to oil, but IIRC, it has been losing population despite the oil boom)
9) Telfair, Georgia (McRae)   -3.13% (Rural south Georgia ?)
8) Woodward, Oklahoma (Woodward) -3.14% (Oil?)
7) Ochiltree, Texas (Perryton) -3.66% (Oil?)
6) Uintah, Utah (Vernal) -3.75% (Oil?)
5) Geary, Kansas (Junction City) -3.77% (Cuts at Fort Riley?)
4) Richland, Montana (Sidney) -3.82% (Oil)
3) Charlton, Georgia (Homeland) -3.94% (Alligators moving out of the Okefenokee Swamp?)
2) Beckham, Oklahoma (Sayre/Elk City) -4.69% (Oil?)
1) Chattahoochee, GA (Cusetta)   -4.71% (Cuts at Fort Benning? - This county has been a perennial loser over the past few years, IIRC)

Williams, North Dakota (Williston) just missed the cut at number 11.  It lost -2.97% of its population since 2015.  It's still up 53.30% from the 2010 Census, though.

The fastest-growing county without regard to overall population was Hudspeth, Texas, just east of El Paso County.  It grew by 18.34% from 2015-16.  Granted, the gain was just 628 residents out of its new 4,053 population.  But it may be a county to watch in the future, as El Paso's growth sprawls down I-10 and/or US-62/180.



14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MI-01: Two Marine Veterans Could Face Off in 2018 on: March 23, 2017, 12:53:27 am
Firstly, Troll and Yooper are the best demonyms in the nation.
Secondly, Dems need Yoopers because they don't do well with Trolls. Nominating a Troll might well be to the Dems benefit.

There are more Trolls than Yoopers in the district, at least by population.  The question then becomes whether Yoopers are less likely to vote for a Troll than Trolls are to vote for a Yooper.  As I understand it, the UP has the stronger identity, and might be more willing to vote for one of their own because they are their own.  The Democrats nominated a Troll in 2016 - and lost.

If these are the two candidates, they are from totally different ends of the district.  Bergman is from Watersmeet, near the Wisconsin border.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MI-01: Two Marine Veterans Could Face Off in 2018 on: March 22, 2017, 11:36:09 pm
Not getting my hopes up. Local dems still have some support in the UP sure, but the mainland portion of this district is blood red these days.



Morgan lives in Traverse City, so he's a Troll (from under the bridge connecting the two peninsulas of Michigan).  Bergman is a Yooper from the UP.  I'm not sure that it makes sense for Democrats to nominate a Troll if they need the UP to win.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: March 22, 2017, 07:22:59 pm
I want to see if the (until recently) fast-growing oil counties, like McKenzie and Williams, ND, have started to lose population or are just growing more slowly.
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: Voting Rights Amendment (Debating) on: March 21, 2017, 12:46:04 am
Okay, yea, we should definitely add that then.

After the decision in cinyc v. Lincoln, I think you must.  I leave it up to the House on how to phrase it - requirements for registration and frequent posting, requirements for residency and frequent posting, separately codifying the current 7-day registration requirement ("persons whose account and registration in Atlasia is fewer than 168 days old" perhaps), etc. - it is up to you as our elected representatives to decide.

Please stop and think about the regional implications before you act, too - can regions have a different residency or frequency requirement?  Should that decision be enshrined in the constitution or be left to the Atlasian legislature?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: March 20, 2017, 08:00:00 pm
I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.

Thanks.

Simple weighted to the 2014 November CPS actual voter percentages by age and sex, it's also Quist +8, 49/41/9.  I don't heart decimals.

The regional divide is there, but not as strong as in other polls.  Quist wins Western Montana by 14 (weighted), and loses Eastern Montana by 6 (weighted).  Western Montana was overrepresented in this poll, making up 78% of respondents versus the 59 or 60% they usually are.  The other two polls also overpolled Western Montana, but not by nearly this much.  If you re-weight the weighted regional results, you get Quist+6 statewide.

Agewise, Quist won every group except 35-44s and age unknowns.  Among men, the race is tied.  Quist has a 23 point lead among women.  Note: these results are unweighted.

Weighting spreadsheet here.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: cinyc vs. Northern Region (Lincoln) on: March 20, 2017, 05:52:10 pm
Thank you, your honors.
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SB 2017-063: Amending the Federal Electoral Act Act (Debating) on: March 20, 2017, 12:07:19 am
Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until the Supreme Court decides the cinyc v. Lincoln case before jumping into a law change?  It might not be necessary if the court rules in Lincoln's favor.
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: Voting Rights Amendment (Debating) on: March 20, 2017, 12:05:54 am
As I said when the Senate tried to pass a similar bill in the last assembly, it's not clear that "requirements for frequent posting" includes being the current requirement that citizens be registered for 7 days before voting.  You need to add "and term of residency" or something similar to make sure that it does.

Remember - the Atlasian Supreme Court is currently hearing a case on whether regions can have a different registration requirement than the Feds - or anyone at all can have one - under the current constitution.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Donna Brazile expresses regret for leaking Debate questions to Clinton on: March 18, 2017, 08:12:23 pm
Brazile should just become an analyst. I don't think any campaign is gonna hire her. She's better off giving hot takes, like 90% of this forum.

Which news network is going to want to hire the hack who funneled debate questions to the Clinton campaign as an analyst?  That wouldn't be prudent - she can't be trusted not to do it again.

Like others have said, Brazile's only sorry that she got caught.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump's new budget will cut meals on wheels on: March 18, 2017, 08:07:51 pm
Do you think the reporter bothered to tell Linda Preast that Meals on Wheels isn't a government program?

neither helpful, nor the point.

Well, it sort of is the point.  Why is it the federal government's role to be funding programs like Meals on Wheels to begin with?  These are questions that some never ask, because they think the government should be involved in anything and everything - sort of like Chuck Schumer grandstanding on local New York TV very Sunday about the "outrage" of the week that's often not properly within the federal government's purview to begin with.  The "there oughta be a law" crowd never admit that oftentimes, no, there shouldn't be - particularly on the federal level.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: District Court, Splitting 2-1, Finds Texas Congressional Districts Violate VRA on: March 18, 2017, 12:36:14 pm
Replacing one poor CD for another, hosting the Pubs on their own petard. It's one thing to strike down the plot to neutalize white Dems in Travis. It's another to require something else, that I don't think comports with prior SCOTUS precedent, and is just not justified on public policy grounds, and certainly if the alternative comports with good redistricting principles, and is obviously not out to screw minorities. The court did mention the impermissible Pub intent, that it found. Minorities should not be used as pawns, splitting them up, to neutralize white Dems.

No.  Best I can tell, the courts would rather minorities be used as pawns to neutralize white and Hispanic Republicans.  That's all I can ever make heads or tails out of these cases, and is the realpolitic of recent VRA decisions.

Packing minorities into a compact district is bad because nonsensical reasons - even when geographical compactness should dictate a compact district, say, in the Rio Grande Valley or within municipal boundaries.  Not packing enough minorities into a district is bad when not enough Hispanics bother to vote the way the courts want them to - i.e. for Democrats.  

VRA jurisprudence is a mess.

"Neutralizing" white and hispanic Republicans IS the main point the courts are trying to accomplish.    The Republicans hold 25 of 36 seats with 57% of the vote, that's about a 13% discrepancy.   The vast majority of those being voted in by Anglo majorities (Probably all but two I think...?).    Minorities in Texas are under-represented in Texas,  no matter how you slice it, and the maps are almost entirely to blame.

Minorities are underepresented only if you live in a fantasy world where all minorities, particularly Texas Hispanics, must vote for Democrats - if they bother to vote at all.  It's not the Republicans' fault that Democrat-leaning Hispanics often don't bother to show up to vote, or when they do, don't unilaterally block vote the way you want them to.  All they have to be given is the opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice - and in a 60% CVAP Hispanic district, they certainly have that if they block vote and show up to the polls.  That they don't block vote the way the courts and Democrats want them to shouldn't be grounds to overturn the district in a rational, sane world.  The alternative would be to pack the districts with even more Hispanics, but the courts would likely overturn that as impermissible packing - which is even greater nonsense, especially when Democrats tend to self-pack themselves into urban areas to begin with. 

I maintain that even without the VRA-required racial gerrymandering, Republicans would have an advantage compared to the vote percentage in almost any non-Democatic gerrymandered Texas map, even a neutral one.  Democrats are self-packed into urban areas.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: District Court, Splitting 2-1, Finds Texas Congressional Districts Violate VRA on: March 16, 2017, 11:52:29 pm
Replacing one poor CD for another, hosting the Pubs on their own petard. It's one thing to strike down the plot to neutalize white Dems in Travis. It's another to require something else, that I don't think comports with prior SCOTUS precedent, and is just not justified on public policy grounds, and certainly if the alternative comports with good redistricting principles, and is obviously not out to screw minorities. The court did mention the impermissible Pub intent, that it found. Minorities should not be used as pawns, splitting them up, to neutralize white Dems.

No.  Best I can tell, the courts would rather minorities be used as pawns to neutralize white and Hispanic Republicans.  That's all I can ever make heads or tails out of these cases, and is the realpolitic of recent VRA decisions.

Packing minorities into a compact district is bad because nonsensical reasons - even when geographical compactness should dictate a compact district, say, in the Rio Grande Valley or within municipal boundaries.  Not packing enough minorities into a district is bad when not enough Hispanics bother to vote the way the courts want them to - i.e. for Democrats.  

VRA jurisprudence is a mess.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 429


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines