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October 31, 2014, 11:53:28 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / GA: Vox Populi: Deal +7 on: Today at 09:09:45 pm
Vox Populi Georgia Poll:
Deal 49%
Carter 42%
Hunt 3%
Unsure 7%

October 28; 602 Active (Likely?) Voters; MoE +/-4

The poll was sponsored by Ending Spending Action Fund, a Republican PAC.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / GA: Vox Populi: Perdue +5 on: Today at 09:07:19 pm
Vox Populi Georgia Poll:
Perdue 48%
Nunn 43%
Swafford 3%
Unsure 6%

October 28; 602 Active (Likely?) Voters; MoE +/-4

The poll was sponsored by Ending Spending Action Fund, a Republican PAC.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11: Siena: Grimm up 19 (!) on: Today at 07:14:04 pm
The Governor's race is 56-33-5 Cuomo.
WTF?

If Cuomo's up by 23, yet Grimm's up 19........this poll is worth less than the thing that comes out of my ass.

In 2010, Grimm won what was then NY-13 by 3 while Cuomo won the Staten Island portion of the district by 17.  Split-ticket voting is perfectly possible.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York? on: Today at 06:38:50 pm
Clarification: I want to know where you think he'll get his highest % of the vote (which may or may not be where he'll get his highest number of absolute votes).

I think it's likely to be Albany for both, though it could be Tompkins for percentage and New York for absolute votes.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11: Siena: Grimm up 19 (!) on: Today at 06:19:04 pm
The Governor's race is 56-33-5 Cuomo.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York? on: Today at 05:51:35 pm
He'll likely get the most absolute # of votes in New York or Kings, just because they're so much larger.  As a percentage, yes it'll be one of Tompkins/Ulster/Albany.

It was pretty close in 2010.  I think he's going to do much better in Albany County than in NYC this time.  Maybe even 5x better.  The lesser percentage in New York or Kings might not be enough to make up the raw vote from Albany, despite their size.  Unless the NYS Democratic Committee's creepy "we're watching if you come out to vote" mailing backfires to cause NYC residents to vote against Cuomo for Hawkins, too.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York? on: Today at 05:29:48 pm
The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.

The Bronx was one of Cuomo's best counties in the primaries. He won like 80% of the vote there...

That's still 10-20% who could end up voting for Hawkins, which is far more than most counties in New York.

That's not going to happen.  The Siena CD and State Senate polling has shown that there is more appetite for Hawkins Upstate than Downstate, and Hawkins is especially strong in the Albany area.  Hawkins got .42% of the vote in the Bronx in 2010.  He hit 3.55% in Tompkins County, 3.06% in Albany County and 2.63% in Ulster County in 2010.

The answer is one of those three counties.  I'm going to say Hawkins does best in Albany County because of government workers voting against Cuomo.  He'll likely get the most votes there of any county, even if the percentage is higher in Tompkins.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Zogby: Gardner+9, Ernst+7, Orman+5, Hagan+3, NH tied on: Today at 02:42:11 pm
This thread should be deleted.   At minimum, the title should be changed to reflect the article.  Making up poll numbers is not cool.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-Rasmussen: Sullivan +5 on: Today at 11:18:57 am
How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

Alaska's early vote has always trended Democratic in recent cycles. So much so that it makes precinct-level maps inaccurate because the early vote is only broken down by House District, not precinct. 

One thing to keep in mind is that at least in the primary, late early votes (from the days immediately before the election) aren't counted on election night. So if Sullivan and Begich are close to tied on election night, Begich will likely win.

Also I've heard that the ballots sent in from the rural Native areas could take 4-5 extra days to count.

Election day results from the bush generally trickle in later on election night, but usually all but a handful of precincts get called in before the night is over. This will be the first election with significant early voting in more rural areas. I don't know when those results will be reported.  It won't be hard to count the relatively few legally permissible to count early ballots and include them with the election day tally call on election night, though.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-Rasmussen: Sullivan +5 on: Today at 11:06:02 am
How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

Alaska's early vote has always trended Democratic in recent cycles. So much so that it makes precinct-level maps inaccurate because the early vote is only broken down by House District, not precinct. 

One thing to keep in mind is that at least in the primary, late early votes (from the days immediately before the election) aren't counted on election night. So if Sullivan and Begich are close to tied on election night, Begich will likely win.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked on: October 30, 2014, 11:25:42 pm
From the last paragraph of the linked article:
Quote
The online poll of 1,129 likely voters in Iowa, conducted between October 23 and 29, had a confidence interval - similar to a margin of error - of 3.3 points.

So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5 on: October 30, 2014, 08:21:17 pm
Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...

I don't buy the argument that a pollster's bias in one cycle automatically carries over to the next cycle.  Pollsters make adjustments from cycle to cycle.  But if you are going to show a pattern from prior cycles, it has to be noted that that pollster also overestimated other incumbents that cycle, and is known for doing so.

So then you do think Maffei is down by more than 10?

No.  If anything, I think the race is much closer.  But polls are what they are - a snapshot of the race at a particular time using the methodology of a particular pollster.  Public congressional polling in general is fraught with peril and not terribly reliable.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5 on: October 30, 2014, 08:16:06 pm
Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...

I don't buy the argument that a pollster's bias in one cycle automatically carries over to the next cycle.  Pollsters make adjustments from cycle to cycle.  But if you are going to show a pattern from prior cycles, it has to be noted that that pollster also overestimated other incumbents that cycle, and is known for doing so.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5 on: October 30, 2014, 08:12:08 pm
Considering these were Siena's results in 2012, it looks like Maloney is in pretty good shape.



Siena has been accused of putting out polls biased toward incumbents.  Hayworth was the incumbent in 2012.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NJ-05: Monmouth: Garrett (R) +11 on: October 30, 2014, 07:59:38 pm
Monmouth University Poll of NJ-05
Garrett (R) 53%
Cho (D) 42%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%

October 27-29; 427 LV; MoE +/- 4.8
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5 on: October 30, 2014, 07:55:35 pm
Time Warner Cable News/Siena College Poll of NY-18
Maloney (D) 49%
Hayworth (R) 44%
Don't Know/No Opinion 7%

October 24-27; 682 LV; MoE +/- 3.8

Cuomo leads 44-43-8 in the district.  Astorino is narrowly leading in the Orange County and Putnam/Westchester subsamples, indicating he has a chance of winning Orange and Putnam Counties - two counties Cuomo won in his 2010 race.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Landmark Communications: Nunn and Perdue tied on: October 30, 2014, 07:25:23 pm
It's Perdue +0.8 because of decimals and rounding.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats on: October 30, 2014, 06:19:20 pm
It's turnout, turnout, turnout. In close races where get out the vote operations contacting every possible voter, there is no way that likely voter polls can pick up on last minute voters or even have contact information.

Most rational people hate getting incessant calls from political candidates begging them to vote, and just wish the calls would go away.  And they hide from strangers knocking on their doors.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5 on: October 29, 2014, 08:20:12 pm
Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

Where do you see that?  It's not in Stockton's write-up.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5 on: October 29, 2014, 07:18:09 pm
Stockton Poll of NJ-03:
MacArthur (R) 46%
Belgard (D) 41%
Undecided 8%

Oct. 25-28; 617 LV; MoE +/-3.9.

Stockton's last poll in mid-September found the race tied at 42.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What are the best sources to watch on election day? on: October 29, 2014, 06:44:22 pm
I'll be watching CNN, with the occasional check on MSNBC. I'll have the CNN pages for various key races up online, I'll keep an eye on the Atlas Forum (though I'm going to leave the posting of results up to others), and also the pages I'm using for my volunteering for AOSHQDD.

If past elections are any indication, chances are that the Atlas Forum will be down on election night, anyway.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NY-19: TWC News/Siena: Gibson (R) +23 on: October 28, 2014, 07:27:28 pm
Time Warner Cable News/Siena College NY-19 Poll:
Gibson (R) 58%
Eldridge (D) 35%
Don't Know/No Opinion 7%

October 22-24; 727 Likely Voters; MoE +/- 3.7

Astorino leads Cuomo 39-38-14 in the district.  Hawkins is polling best in the NY-19 counties around Albany, where he's at 19%.

23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Detroit News/WDIV-TV (by Glengariff Group): Snyder (R) +6 on: October 27, 2014, 07:00:26 pm
That would be +5. And down 3 points from their last poll. The crappy Michigan-centric pollsters may show Snyder winning easily, but PPP shows a tie. Judging from 2012, I know who I believe.

45.2 - 39.5=5.7, which rounds up to 6.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: GM Independence Amendment on: October 27, 2014, 06:42:52 pm
Nay
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI: Detroit News/WDIV-TV (by Glengariff Group): Snyder (R) +6 on: October 27, 2014, 06:40:52 pm
Detroit News/WDIV-TV Poll (by Glengariff Group):
Snyder (R) 45.2%
Schauer (D) 39.5%
Third Party 5%
Don't Know/Refused 10.3%

October 22-24; 600 Definite Voters; MoE +/- 4.

According to the linked article, the self-identified partisan breakdown is 39% Democrat, 35% Republican, 25% Independent.   Schauer has a 12-point lead among those who have returned absentee ballots.
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