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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Do you feel bad for Tom Corbett? on: Today at 02:38:19 pm
I don't feel bad for politicians.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) on: August 30, 2014, 06:03:38 pm
In the only major contested race in Guam, Incumbent Congressional Delegate Madeline Bordallo won the Democratic primary, defearting Matthew Artero 5,882-2,008 or 74.5%-25.5%. 

All but Republican Guam Senatorial candidate Carlos Romero won their Guam Senate primaries - there were 16 candidates for 15 seats on the Republican side and 15 for 15 on the Democratic side.  The incumbent AG candidate ended up in second in the nonpartisan AG primary, but will live to fight in a rematch on election day.  Both candidates advance to the general election.  FWIW, There were more Republican votes in the uncontested Gubernatorial primary than in the uncontested Democratic Gubernatorial primary.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AK Congressional Races 2014 on: August 27, 2014, 10:48:20 pm
good article on the messy Libertarian Senate primary, a guy named Walker who ran no campaign won because of indie Gov candidate Bill Walker http://www.adn.com/article/20140822/walker-no-other-walker-wins-libertarian-us-senate-nomination

Joe Miller backer Fish did not, and thus the libertarian candidate is far less likely to draw votes from the Millertime crowd

Citing work commitments, Thom Walker has decided to withdraw as the Libertarian Senate Candidate.  Mark Fish is in.

www.adn.com/article/20140827/alaska-libertarian-candidate-us-senate-withdraws
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 26: AZ, FL, OK-runoff, VT) on: August 27, 2014, 10:01:51 pm
Where can the results be found posted live? Like the state website.

The Guam Election Commission has a website here.  I don't know if they do election night returns, but it doesn't look like it.  They did post the official 2012 general election results to their website, though, weeks afterward.  I also can't find an AP election results page for Guam - though I haven't extensively searched for it.  If you're up at the crack of dawn on Saturday, your best bet will probably be monitoring the three major Guam media websites.

According to media reports, the Guam Election Commission isn't meeting until 9PM local time to go over results, so I wouldn't expect anything until after 7AM Eastern.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 26: AZ, FL, OK-runoff, VT) on: August 27, 2014, 07:56:51 pm
Next up is Guam on August 30th.

So, uh, what is up there? Governor and Delegate along with a bunch of Legislature seats?

That plus attorney general. Probably not going to bother liveblogging it, although I will post a link to the full results once everything is in like I did for the virgin islands.

According to the Green Papers, polls close at 8PM local time on Saturday.  That's 6AM Eastern Time, 3AM Pacific.  I doubt there will be many people liveblogging the results at that hour on a Saturday morning.

In any event, Guam's newspaper is a Gannett outfit, the Pacific Daily News.  It can be found at www.guampdn.com.  Their main TV station is NBC/CBS duopoly KUAM.  Its website is www.kuam.com.  Their FOX/ABC duopoly has a news website at www.pacificnewscenter.com.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 26: AZ, FL, OK-runoff, VT) on: August 27, 2014, 05:36:29 pm
Everything is now all in on the AZ SoS site. Tobin wins by 470 votes:

Choice         Votes   Percent   
KIEHNE, GARY (REP)      15,219   34.97%   
KWASMAN, ADAM (REP)      12,422   28.55%   
TOBIN, ANDY (REP)      15,689   36.05%   
Write-in (REP)      187   0.43%   
Total      43,517   
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 26: AZ, FL, OK-runoff, VT) on: August 26, 2014, 07:01:09 pm
Vermont update: 3.3% in
Welch wins D house unopposed.
Donka leading Nolte 39-31.

Gov:
Dem. : Shumlin leading Paige 81-19
Rep.: Milne leading Berry 81-12



Milne is also facing a write-in challenge.  The AP doesn't report write-ins, but the VT SoS does.  Write-ins are about 19% of the vote so far.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Texas Gov: Perry is convicted, Any chance for Davis then ? on: August 25, 2014, 07:58:41 pm
Perry isn't going on trial before election day.  The justice system doesn't move that fast.  So he can't be convicted before election day.

Even if the trial were to occur before November, Perry is not going to be convicted of anything, anyway.  The charges are very weak.  Perry has a right to veto funding for a DA who has shown that she is unfit to serve by getting arrested for DUI.  And that's basically all he is charged of doing.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: The Bicameral Birthing Amendment on: August 25, 2014, 01:13:18 pm
Nay
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Assembly General Election & Referendum on: August 22, 2014, 07:36:46 pm
Official Ballot

Northeast Assembly
To fill five seats

[5] SomebodyWhoExists (Labor - New York)
[1] rpryor03 (Federalist - New Jersey)
[2] Write-in: NJ Christian
[3] Write-in: Dallasfan65
[4] Write-in: Matt from VT
[  ] None of the Above


Referendum No. 1
Quote
Speaker Absence Amendment

Article II, Section 14 of the Northeast Constitution is hereby amended to read

The Speaker of the Northeast Legislative Assembly acts as the Presiding Officer of the Northeast Legislative Assembly. He or she organizes votes on legislation and notifies the Representatives of the results of any official vote. If the Speaker is temporarily absent (no more than ten days), the longest continuously serving representative (excluding the Lieutenant Governor) may exercise the powers of Speaker.

[  ] Aye
[X] Nay


Referendum No. 2
Quote
Northeast Electoral Reform Amendment

Article II, Section 5 of the Northeast Constitution is amended to read

Except in December, candidates for the Legislative Assembly will be given until the Wednesday preceding the Friday before the penultimate Friday of the month in which he or she wishes to run in an election thereof to announce his or her candidacy. In December, candidates for the Legislative Assembly will be given until the Wednesday preceding the first Friday of December to announce his or her candidacy. Candidates for Legislative Assembly will be given until the Wednesday preceding the first date of polling in the election they wish to contest to announce their candidacy and appear on the ballot. This is to be done by officially declaring his or her's candidacy in the Candidate Declaration Thread.

[X] Aye
[  ] Nay
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2014 Federal Election - At-Large Senate on: August 22, 2014, 07:33:44 pm
AT-LARGE SENATE


[  ] Alfred F. Jones of Rhode Island
Labor Party



[  ] Bacon King of Oceania
National Front to Restore Democracy



[5] Clarence of Florida
Federalist Party



[1] Deus naturae of New York
Democratic-Republican Party



[  ] Dr Cynic of Pennsylvania
Labor Party



[  ] GAworth of South Dakota
P.E.A.C.E. Party



[3] JohanusCalvinusLibertas (JCL) of Indiana
Federalist Party



[4] LuminevonReuental of Utah
Federalist Party



[  ] Mechaman of Indiana
Bad Party



[2] Poirot of New York
Independent



[ ] Polnut of Massachusetts
The People's Party



[6] Write-in: cinyc
-Independent



[  ] None of the above
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: WMUR/Granite State Poll: Brown closing in? on: August 22, 2014, 03:10:44 pm
So I've been saying WMUR's a junk firm when it showed a 13-point swing towards Guinta and got sh*t for it...

WMUR isn't a polling firm.  It is the New Hampshire TV station that sponsored the poll.  The pollster is UNH, whose polls are wildly variable.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 21, 2014, 01:15:02 am
Alaska Precinct Maps:
Statewide:


A Sullivan precinct win is indicated in blue.  Miller is in red.  Treadwell is in yellow.  All colors are gradated in 10-point increments using the Atlas Color Scale.  Deeper colors mean a larger winning percentage.  A Sullivan-Miller tie is in purple.  A Sullivan-Treadwell tie is in green.  A Miller-Treadwell tie is in orange.  4 precincts with no election day Republican primary votes are in grey.

Because Alaska is so large, the statewide map emphasizes Alaska's geographically large but sparsely populated Bush precincts.  Sullivan generally won precincts in the North Slope, and to a lesser extent, Northwest Arctic Borough.  Miller seems to have done best in rural precincts near his hometown of Fairbanks.  Treadwell won some precincts in the western part of the Bethel Census area in Southwestern Alaska. 

Zooming in on the state's more populated areas gives a better picture of how the race was won.

Anchorage:


Sullivan handily won much of the state's largest city, often taking more than 40% of the vote.  Treadwell also won a few precincts, largely on Democratic-friendly turf near Downtown Anchorage and in the ski community of Girdwood in far South Anchorage.  Miller took a few scattered Anchorage precincts as well, some by a narrow margin.

Matanuska-Susitna Borough:


The  exurban Mat-Su Valley was Miller's best area, providing him with large margins of victory in many precincts.  Miller did best in the areas around Sarah Palin's home town of Wasilla.  Sullivan did make some inroads in the Palmer area as well as in the area around Talkeetna, which is used as a staging area for expeditions to Mt. McKinnley.

Fairbanks:


Surprisingly, Joe Miller's home town of Fairbanks wasn't reliable Miller territory.  Sullivan actually won most precincts near downtown Fairbanks.  Miller's best areas were around (but not including) North Pole and the Fort Wainwright and Eielison military bases, which have few election day voters.

Southeast Alaska:


Although the map doesn't seem to show it, the Southeast Alaska panhandle was reliable Sullivan territory.  Sullivan easily won every precinct in the state capital of Juneau, and took most other heavily-populated areas.  The Southeastern Alaska precincts that Miller won were generally sparsely populated, with the exception of the fishing town of Petersburg and a precinct near the southernmost Alaskan city of Ketchikan - both of which, Miller only narrowly won.

Kenai Peninsula:


Results on the Kenai Peninsula south of Anchorage were a mixed bag, with Sullivan and Miller splitting precincts near the largest town of Kenai and Miller taking areas in and around the smaller towns of Homer and Seward.  Sullivan scored narrow victories in the northern and Kenai House Districts, 29 and 30.  Miller handily won the Homer House District 31.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 02:12:47 pm
AK is a bit unique in that R primaries are closed and D's are open. I guess the closed primary is why Miller was able to win the first place in 2010.

That website is wrong.  Alaska Republican primaries are only semi-closed.  Unaffiliated and Nonpartisan voters can vote in the Republican primary.  Those registered in another party (like Democrats) cannot.  You do not have to be a registered Republican to vote in the primary.

Alaska Democratic primaries are totally open, though.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 03:15:46 am
With 74% in, Sullivan and No again slightly increase their leads.  I'm surprised that the AP hasn't called the Republican Senate race for Sullivan.  Practically everything that's out is from rural Bush areas that don't have many votes, let alone Republican votes. 

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       328    74.4%
Times Counted       83349/494900    16.8%
Total Votes       81953    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    2376    2.90%
Miller, Joe    REP    26075    31.82%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    32940    40.19%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    20562    25.09%

MEASURE NO. 1 - 13SB21       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       328    74.4%
Times Counted       138303/494900    27.9%
Total Votes       136014    
YES       65485    48.15%
NO       70529    51.85%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 02:39:59 am
New dump of around 50 precincts.  Sullivan and No slightly increase their leads:

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       295    66.9%
Times Counted       75301/494900    15.2%
Total Votes       74031    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    2114    2.86%
Miller, Joe    REP    23818    32.17%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    29629    40.02%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    18470    24.95%

MEASURE NO. 1 - 13SB21       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       295    66.9%
Times Counted       125217/494900    25.3%
Total Votes       123118    
YES       59879    48.64%
NO       63239    51.36%
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 02:18:02 am
At first I thought you meant people who voted for George W. Bush (lol), but now I realize you mean Northern Alaska and Native Alaskans. I think they'll lean yes on this, but you never know. They were probably the group that Obama gained the most in 2012 out of any demographic group in the country.

I think it's hard to predict.  HD40, which includes the North Slope where Alaska gets most of its oil from, might be inclined to vote no to try to keep and expand oil exploration in Alaska and keep getting royalties for the borough.  The rest of the Bush HDs (37-39 and 6) are more of a wild card.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 01:52:22 am
The referendum is now leading No.

34,893 (49) - 35,962 (51)

The real wildcard on the referendum is the Bush vote.  Little of it is in, and total votes cast there usually is little - but will matter big in a close race.  And I don't think people can even guess how the Bush will vote on the referendum.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 01:26:42 am
AoSHQDD calls R-Sen for Sullivan.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 01:25:25 am
From Twitter, but isn't AOSHQ/AP.

#AKSEN
Actual count now:

29,850
29,254

I'm not sure if this is true.

Not according to AoSHQDD, AP or the State Division of Elections.

What's in is more from Fairbanks, Kenai and the Mat-Su than Anchorage and the Bush.  The former areas are likely more Miller-friendly than the latter.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 12:08:15 am
First AK results:

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       76    17.2%
Times Counted       20040/494900    4.0%
Total Votes       19693    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    599    3.04%
Miller, Joe    REP    6531    33.16%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    7876    39.99%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    4687    23.80%
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 19, 2014, 10:17:50 pm
What time do the Alaska polls close?  Midnight EDT, 11 PM CDT?

Most of the state closes at 12 AM EST, but the media generally considers it closed at 1 AM due to Aleutian Islands.

There is literally one precinct in the Aleutians that theoretically closes at 1AM Eastern.  Everything else closes at midnight Eastern.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 19, 2014, 10:14:47 pm
Some Alaskan Primary preliminary early and absentee statistics, via adn.com:

Quote from: Alaska Dispatch News
More than 9,500 people voted early as of Monday evening, compared to 5,100 for all early voting in 2010, according to the elections division.

Early votes received by last Friday will be counted once polls close Tuesday, Fenumiai said. Absentee ballots people sent by mail will take longer -- and there may be a lot of those. The state sent out 13,086 ballots to people who requested them. Generally, the state sees a little more than half of those come back as completed ballots.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What will be Cuomo's weakest county/area/city in the Democratic primary? on: August 19, 2014, 07:16:14 pm
Tompkins County (Ithaca) will likely be his worst county.  It's home to Cornell University and Ithaca College and is probably most receptive to Teachout's progressive message.  Some other counties in the Southern Tier might also vote against Cuomo due to his lack of action on fracking.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 19, 2014, 07:13:19 pm
Some of it closes at midnight,  the rest at 1 am. It doesn't count that fast either, or at least it didn't in 2010.

99% of the polls close at midnight.  A few in the Aleutians close at 1AM.  Alaska usually starts counting and releasing results after midnight. 

If I recall correctly, Alaska results are released by the state, like Hawaii.  I seem to recall results are more continuously updated than Hawaii, though.  They also might release precinct-level results continuously, but the reports are in 40 separate pdf files for each House District and are difficult to aggregate using Excel.  You can usually tell what's out by looking at the precincts reporting in the House District primaries, anyway.

Alaska Republican primaries are open to Republicans, nonpartisan and unaffiliated voters.  Democratic primaries are open to everyone, including Republicans.  The Democratic primary is included on the same ballot as a few minor party primaries, too.  You can pick and choose which candidates to vote for in each race.
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