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December 18, 2014, 06:08:55 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which electoral maps are the most aesthetically pleasing to your eye? on: December 17, 2014, 07:15:37 pm


Too bad Minnesota didn't vote Republican, too.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce sweeping changes in Cuba policy today! on: December 17, 2014, 05:43:35 pm
It just goes to show it doesn't matter how reasonable or popular it is, anything Obama supports Republican politicians will oppose. 

Republican politicians have been against normaiiizing relations with communist Cuba since well before Obama was President.  Heck, Republicans probably have been against it for as long as Obama has been alive.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New York To Ban Fracking on: December 17, 2014, 05:35:21 pm
Terrible decision by a terrible Democrat governor.  Cuomo to Southern Tier: Drop Dead.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 6 weeks after election day: 1 state (NY) still has no final results out on: December 15, 2014, 07:42:07 pm
It doesn't surprise me that New York is the laggard.  The state board of elections just got into the 20th century with a election-night results website this year.  Maybe they'll get around to certifying the final results more quickly next year.  Baby steps.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: December 2014 At-large Senate Election on: December 12, 2014, 11:18:33 pm
REPUBLIC OF ATLASIA - In Dave We Trust
Official Ballot
AT-LARGE SENATE


[5] Bacon King of Oceania
The People's Party



[1] Cris of Kansas
Federalist Party



[2] JohanusCalvinusLibertas of Indiana
Federalist Party



[  ] Lief of Vermont
Labor Party



[4] Polnut of Massachusetts
The People's Party



[6] SomebodyWhoExists of Quebec
Labor Party



[3] Write-in: Maxwell


[  ] None of the above
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: December Assembly Elections on: December 12, 2014, 11:16:31 pm
Official Ballot
Northeast Assembly
To fill five seats

[6] Altsomn Josef Stmarken (Labor - Maine)
[5] Barnes (Labor - Maine)
[1] Thomas from NJ (Federalist - New Jersey)
[2] Write-in: Winfield
[3] Write-in: Napoleon
[4] Write-in: Dallasfan
[  ] None of the Above
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Protecting People From Explosives Amendment on: December 12, 2014, 10:18:19 pm
Nay
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Game Moderation Reform Amendment II on: November 27, 2014, 09:43:42 pm
Nay
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Corporal punishment by county school district, 2009-2011 on: November 20, 2014, 01:01:37 am
The Census Bureau does have shapefiles of school district maps in each state.  They are in three different categories (unified, elementary and secondary), so you might have to make two maps - one for unified and elementary and one for unified and secondary.  But it would be possible to make a nationwide map if you really wanted to do so.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NRCC, American Crossroads & AAN caught coordinating via tweets on: November 17, 2014, 09:51:54 pm
Those groups coordinate all the time, even though it isn't legal, they find ways to get around the rules. Although, it is sloppy to coordinate on Twitter where everyone can see.

Well, that's kind of the point.  Putting information on Twitter is public for anyone to see, and not a private coordination with a particular party.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: November 2014 Special At-large Senate Election on: November 15, 2014, 07:23:12 pm
REPUBLIC OF ATLASIA - In Dave We Trust
Official Ballot
AT-LARGE SENATE (to fill one vacancy)


[4] Bacon King of Oceania
The People's Party



[1] Cris of Kansas
Federalist Party



[2] Poirot of New York
Independent



[5] SomebodyWhoExists of Quebec
Labor Party



[3] rpryor03 of New Jersey
National Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 15, 2014, 12:06:56 am
AP has called Alaska Gov for Walker.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 Alaska Governor Election Day Precinct Vote Maps on: November 13, 2014, 09:38:21 pm
Which ones are still out, and where did you get these maps?

The absentee and questioned vote is still out from all over the state.  The in-precinct vote is in.  Walker should win.  His vote percentage slightly increased when Alaska counted some absentees, questioned and the remaining early vote on Tuesday.

I got the Alaska shapefile and election day vote data from the Alaska Division of Elections' website.  I import the vote data into a spreadsheet and use a formula to shade each precinct or county equivalent to the winner by percentage (by basically creating a new column with the highest percentage won, then adding 1 to Walker's percentage in any precinct he won so that it will be colored green in my map program).  I then save the spreadsheet in a format that can be read by a mapping program called MapWindow GIS, and use the Atlas Color Scheme to color the precincts for the winner and percentage.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / 2014 Alaska Governor Election Day Precinct Vote Maps on: November 13, 2014, 09:23:49 pm
Below are maps of the election day in-precinct vote for 2014 Alaska Governor's race.  Note that this does not reflect the early, absentee or questioned votes, which are not fully in yet and are only allocated by House District, not precinct.  The Independent/Democratic ticket of Walker/Mallott is currently leading the Republican ticket of Parnell/Sullivan 47.9%-46.3%.  The election day in-precinct vote was won by Walker/Mallott by a much closer 47.2%-46.8% margin.

Note that the white lines are precinct boundaries, the black lines House District boundaries, and the yellow lines county equivalent boundaries.

Statewide


As always, the statewide map emphasizes the sparsely populated, rural bush precincts at the expense of the areas of the state where most people actually live.  Here are precinct maps of the in-precinct election day vote in the 4 largest municipalities:

Anchorage


Walker won the Anchorage election day in-precinct vote 48.5%-46.3%.  He made inroads into areas of South Anchorage that usually vote Republican.  

Mat-Su Borough


Parnell won the Mat-Su election day in-precinct vote 56.8%-36.9%.  Like most Republicans, he won all Mat-Su precincts except Talkeetna.   His margins were slightly off compared to most Republican candidates, though.

Fairbanks North Star Borough


Walker won the Fairbanks North Star Borough election day in-precinct vote 49.2%-45.6%.  As is typical for Republicans in Fairbanks, Parnell was strongest in the North Pole area and the eastern part of the borough.  Walker was strongest in the areas around the University of Alaska-Fairbanks and the western part of the borough.

Juneau


Walker won the Juneau election day in-precinct vote 55.5%-40.2%.  Parnell ran ahead of Republican Senate candidate Dan Sullivan, winning all of Juneau's suburban Mendenhall Valley.

By County Equivalent


For completeness' sake, here's a map of the 2014 Alaska Governor election day in-precinct results by county equivalent.   Absentees, early and questioned votes were not allocated to the county equivalents.  All of the vote is not in yet and allocating those votes to some county equivalents is an inexact science because those votes are broken down by House District instead of by precinct.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 13, 2014, 07:50:48 pm
I can post an Alaska precinct-level map like I did for the Senate race if anyone is interested.

Yes, please. I would do it if you don't want to.

Okay.  I'll put it in a separate post so we can more easily find it later. 

Once I have the data in some comprehensible form and the shapefiles, it's not that hard to make maps.  It's not like I individually color the precincts.  MapWindow GIS does that for me.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 13, 2014, 06:13:00 pm
Parnell lost Anchorage and Fairbanks-North Star Borough? Wow. How close were they?

Walker won the election day in-precinct vote in the Municipality of Anchorage 48.5%-46.3%.  That doesn't surprise me because Anchorage is usually the bellwether for Alaska.  Whoever wins the state usually wins the city.

Walker won the election day in-precinct vote in Fairbanks North Star Borough 49.2%-45.6%.  Walker was born there, but spent most of his political career in Valdez, which is why you see the Valdez-Cordova Census Area flipped from its normal Republican roots.

Thanks cinyc for that great Alaska map.

Btw, there are really people living and voting in/on the North Slope?

Yes.  The majority of voters live in two Barrow precincts, Barrow and Browerville.  The Anaktuvuk Pass precinct has a relatively high population, but I think that's because the oil hub of Deadhorse/Prudhoe Bay is within its borders and some workers were classified by the 2010 Census as living there, even though almost all actually live and are registered to vote someplace else.  There's a Prudhoe Bay absentee voting location that stacks ballots from all 40 of Alaska's House Districts to facilitate voting from the workers, who usually work long shifts two weeks at a time.

I can post an Alaska precinct-level map like I did for the Senate race if anyone is interested.

Note: Edited to reflect an overcount in the write-in vote on my spreadsheet.  I don't think it changed much - perhaps Parnell going over the 50% threshold in Petersburg - but a revised map will be put up later.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 12, 2014, 08:23:26 pm


Note that this is of the election day in-precinct vote only.  Absentees, early and questioned votes were not allocated to the county equivalents.  Those votes are not all in yet, and allocating them to county equivalents is an inexact science.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 12, 2014, 04:19:19 pm
Why is it so difficult to gather data on Alaska county results?

Because Alaska and the AP don't break down results by Alaska county equivalents (Alaska technically doesn't have counties).   To make matters worse, only the election day in-precinct vote is broken down by precinct, and the absentee, early and questioned votes, which are only reported by Alaska House District that cross county equivalent lines, often break differently than the election day in-precinct vote.  Allocating those votes is an inexact science, especially in the smaller rural Census Areas that are used as a proxy for counties.  Even some precincts cross county equivalent boundaries, though you usually can allocate them to one county equivalent or the other by assuming most of the voters live near the main named village.

I can make a map of the Alaska election day in-precinct vote.  I tend to use yellow to represent independent candidates, though, since it's difficult to differentiate between green and blue at lower levels of support in the Atlas color scheme.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 09:10:00 pm
Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  5m5 minutes ago
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%

Sullivan actually increased his lead from 8,149 to 8,784.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 06:33:26 pm
When will they start counting the rest of the alaska ballots?

They are counting the early and absentee votes right now.  Some regional elections centers have been counting since 1PM Eastern/9AM local.  Anchorage has been counting since 5PM Eastern.  I wouldn't expect to have any results until at least 9PM Eastern, which is 5PM Alaska time, unless some partial count leaks out earlier.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 05:34:06 pm
Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.



According to the Arizona Elections Results Website, McSally is now up by 133.  This is supposedly with everything in but a handful of provisional ballots in Pima County, 200-250 countywide which all won't be in the district.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 01:47:51 pm
News from Alaska?

According to Alaska Public Radio, they just started counting in some places at 1pm Eastern. They're not starting counting in Anchorage until 5pm Eastern.  It will take a while. They are counting the areas with no election night absentees reported first.  And they're probably not going to get through all the absentees today.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mapping the 2014 Alaska Election Day Senate Precinct Vote on: November 10, 2014, 01:56:38 am
This is really interesting, thanks for compiling these maps. Any thoughts on when the race will be called?

Tuesday, if the absentees turn out to be as favorable to Sullivan as some media analyses have suggested.

As always, great work. I love that you post these both here and on RRH!

In opposite colors.  The Atlas Color Scheme causes more work!

I just crunched the Gubernatorial data.  The governor's race broke differently than the Senate race.  Parnell (R) was more competitive in the bush.  And Walker (I) actually won the election-day in-precinct vote in Fairbanks and Anchorage.  But Parnell won more precincts than Sullivan in Juneau's Mendenhall Valley. 

I'll probably post those maps in the Gubernatorial forum tomorrow.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What happened in NY-25? on: November 09, 2014, 11:55:26 pm
This is in the wrong forum, by the way.  You may get more responses in the Congressional Elections forum.

Republicans did well upstate.  It caught the wave.   NY-24, which Maffei lost big, is D+5.  NY-25 is D+7.  So, logically, it would be the next to fall in a wave.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-Sen: Bruce Braley criticizes Grassley as ‘a farmer from Iowa’ on: November 09, 2014, 10:08:34 pm
Did this gaffe in and of itself have much of an impact? Or was it more like a bellwether of Braley's ineptness as a candidate? Or something else?

It polled as Braley's biggest campaign mistake in a question Selzer asked respondents in her Iowa poll.  So, yes, the gaffe had a big impact.
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