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February 10, 2016, 10:19:21 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CBS News Announces Debate Criteria on: Today at 01:11:15 am
More simply put, since many don't seem to understand, these are the criteria.


Fulfill one of the following three criteria:

1. Finish in the top 3 in Iowa.

2. Finish in the top 5 in New Hampshire.

3. Poll in the top 5 in South Carolina and fulfill one of the following four sub-criteria:
a. Poll 3% or higher nationally.
b. Finish 3% or higher in Iowa.
c. Finish 3% or higher in New Hampshire.
d. Poll 3% or higher in South Carolina.

Making the contenders:
Trump (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d)
Rubio (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d)
Cruz (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d)
Bush (2, 3a, 3c, 3d)
Carson (3a, 3b, 3d)
Kasich (2)

Option three is poll in the top 5 in an average of national and South Carolina polls and fulfill one of a-d.  It's not just South Carolina polls that will be taken into account.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 12:58:25 am
There's enough of a gap in the AP data between Cruz and Bush (about 1,200) and Bush and Rubio (about 1,300) and so little of the vote still out (most of what's out is small towns) to project 3-4-5 will be Cruz, Bush, Rubio.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie Suspends Presidential Campaign on: February 09, 2016, 10:40:22 pm
Fox News said that Christie is going back to New Jersey, not on to South Carolina, to reevaluate his campaign.  They said nothing about a formal suspension.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP debate gets 13.2 million TV viewers on: February 09, 2016, 10:07:36 pm
The final debate ratings were adjusted slightly upward to 13.335 million.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 09:14:49 pm
The remaining areas seem mostly rural. Could Sanders get to 60% with them?

We still have no results from Boston suburbs.

There are a lot of townships that are Boston suburbs with results already in. Manchester is almost done.

Manchester is a city in its own right.  Parts of it are suburban, but it's not really a suburb.  We're talking about the towns near the Massachusetts border like Hudson, Pelham, Salem and Derry.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 09:08:06 pm
MSNBC is projection #2 for Kasich

Fox News says the same.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 08:59:49 pm
So yeah, Bush is actually ahead of Cruz again now. This will be close.

#youcantebbthejeb

It's probably going to come down to how well Cruz does in the surburban towns bordering Massachusetts, like Hudson, Pelham and Salem.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 08:00:56 pm
Fox News projects Donald Trump wins New Hampshire.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 07:40:58 pm
People on the ground wouldn't explain getting results from unclosed polling spots.

What unclosed polling spots are they reporting results from?  The Green Papers says that only cities (like Manchester) have the option to stay open until 8.  I don't see any cities reporting.

There has been an initial glitch with candidates winning 100% of the vote for a minute or so until additional results are reported.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 07:36:08 pm
Decision Desk is shady

It's the old Ace of Spades HQ Decision Desk.  They have a team on the ground in New Hampshire getting results from town to town.  It is the real deal.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 05:41:49 pm
And what's this about polls closing at 7 and 8? Huh

New Hampshire cities have the option to close their polls at 8 instead of 7, according to The Green Papers.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CBS News Announces Debate Criteria on: February 09, 2016, 02:02:55 pm
Candidates must meet one of the following criteria:

1) Place among the top five candidates ranked according to the popular vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Feb. 9, 2016;

2) have placed among the top three candidates ranked according to the popular vote in the Iowa Republican caucuses on Feb. 2, 2016;

3) place among the top five candidates in an average of national and South Carolina Republican presidential polls conducted over a four-week period starting on Jan. 15, 2016 and recognized by CBS News; and receive a minimum of 3 percent in the Iowa, New Hampshire results or the South Carolina or national polls. To be included, polls must be conducted and released to the public before 12 p.m. ET on Feb. 12, 2016.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/criteria-for-cbs-news-republican-debate/

So this means Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are definitely in. Kasich and Bush are probably in. Ben Carson might be in if he doesn't collapse in South Carolina after tonight. But Christie could very well be out? Fiorina and Gilmore, screwed once again.

If I correctly undestand, they will include candidates who got >3% in NH. So I think Christie, Fiorina and Carson are pretty safe.

It sounds like a candidate needs to be top 5 in the poll average AND get >3% in NH or Iowa or those polls.  So getting 3% alone won't cut it, nor would being 5th in the poll average if you don't get over 3% in NH, Iowa or the polls.  That would exclude Gilmore if all but 4 candidates drop out.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Map: 2016 NH Primary Results by Township on: February 09, 2016, 01:42:38 am
The AP's by county results page is actually by town.  It is more compact than CNN's results page... and they actually know how to use capital letters correctly.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary ballot access megathread on: February 09, 2016, 01:26:26 am
All the candidates except Gilmore made it onto the Indiana ballot:

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/05/indianas-presidential-ballot-crowded-but-how-long/79892704/

I was looking up New York as well.  On this page:

http://www.elections.ny.gov

they’ve got the candidate filings for Clinton and Sanders, but didn’t see the candidate filings for the Republicans.


Republicans in New York have until February 16 to get on the ballot, and don't necessarily have the same petition requirements as the Democrats.  To get on the ballot, a Republican has to be matching funds eligible or "nationally known".  If not, he or she must file petitions.  The petitions had to be in by February 4, but the certifications of matching fund eligibility or being nationally known need not be in until February 16.  Apparently, no Republicans bothered to file petitions.

Democrats must file petitions for themselves and their delegates, and those petitions were due February 4.  If somebody contested the onerous petition requirements on the Democratic side, it would probably be overturned by a court, like the old Republican petition requirements were.  But apparently, nobody contested them.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking Midnight Towns NH Primary on: February 09, 2016, 01:10:47 am
Any idea why Dixville Notch's voter turnout/registration is down from 2008?

The hotel there, which is the only employer in town, is undergoing renovations.  The people who voted tonight were construction workers and the hotel owner's family.  The electorate was overwhelmingly male, I think 8-1.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Kasich too moderate to win the GOP primary? on: February 09, 2016, 01:08:26 am
His ideology isn't a problem; but his sanctimony, his lack of clarity, his retreading of overly safe ground, his appearance and lack of posture and his generally weird behavior cripples his chances.

Kasich's ideology is part of the problem, though his sanctimony makes him radioactive to the base.  He's an Obamacare-supporting, immigration-loving RINO who said he should be running as a Democrat.  He would have serious problems winning over the party's conservative base, especially since he's been attacking the base since he started running.  Many Trump-skeptic conservatives would flock to Trump if it came down to a contest between Trump and Kasich.  At least Trump hasn't gone out of his way to attack the conservative base of the party. 

Kasich can't win the GOP primary.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking Midnight Towns NH Primary on: February 08, 2016, 11:40:11 pm
I'm guessing the voting in these towns is covered live on CNN, or one of the other news networks?


CNN might.  Fox News Channel and MSNBC are usually in repeats at midnight.  I'm not sure if they will break into their repeats for coverage.
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Northeast CJO cinyc (Another Assembly Special Election this Weekend) on: February 08, 2016, 10:27:58 pm
There will be yet another special election to fill the vacancy caused by Enduro's resignation from the Northeast Assembly to become GM.  That election will be held this weekend.

I know Governor Blair has named NHI as a replacement, but under the law, we need to hold a special election because Enduro's registration occurred more than 2 weeks from the EXPIRATION of the Assembly's term at midnight on Thursday, February 25.

Sorry about the inconvenience.

It's not your fault.  GM is a step up from Assemblyman.  Congratulations!
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which race will be called first tomorrow? on: February 08, 2016, 07:52:14 pm
Does most of the state close at 7PM? What about 8 PM?

According to The Green Papers, only New Hampshire's 13 cities have the option to close at 8PM.  The rest of the state will close at 7PM.  That's why I think enough of the vote will be in to declare a winner at 8PM. 

The networks won't declare a winner until all the polls are closed at 8.  AoSHQDD doesn't hold the same qualms about declaring a winner before all the polls are closed, though.
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Northeast CJO cinyc (Another Assembly Special Election this Weekend) on: February 08, 2016, 07:46:20 pm
There will be yet another special election to fill the vacancy caused by Enduro's resignation from the Northeast Assembly to become GM.  That election will be held this weekend.

I know Governor Blair has named NHI as a replacement, but under the law, we need to hold a special election because Enduro's registration occurred more than 2 weeks from the EXPIRATION of the Assembly's term at midnight on Thursday, February 25.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which race will be called first tomorrow? on: February 08, 2016, 07:30:54 pm
Both will be called by at 8pm Eastern, as there will be enough vote in from the 7pm closing towns to, in conjunction with the exit polls, declare a winner.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll (Feb 4-8): Trump 31%, Rubio 17%, Cruz 14% on: February 08, 2016, 05:48:10 pm
The headline says Trump and Sanders dominate, but they didn't release the Dem numbers yet.

They probably will at 6pm. WMUR needs something to coax people into staying to watch their 6pm newscast during sweeps month instead of changing the channel.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL: Florida Southern College: Trump up 7, Clinton up 43-26 on: February 08, 2016, 05:38:09 pm
Nice work guys, poll every state BUT Nevada which is next.
I'm sure theFlorida Southern College would poll Nevada over Florida.
Is Quinnipiac in Iowa? Is Monmouth in New Hampshire?

Quinnipiac and Monmouth have a reputation for polling outside of their home states.  Florida Southern College does not.

UNLV has a polling institute, but so far they haven't polled Nevada (or at least haven't polled much).  Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, there are few active college pollsters in Nevada and it doesn't have the crappy private pollsters that Michigan has to fill the void.

You didn't explain why this FL cannot do what Quinnipiac and Monmouth do. You invented the "reputation" answer, but your original post had nothing to do with "reputation".

IIRC, Monmouth sometimes gets paid by outside organizations to poll for them.  Marist College in New York does, too.  Quinnipiac might, too, but Quinnipiac has always polled outside of Connecticut, regardless.  There are only so many races Quinnipiac can poll in an uncompetitive state like Connecticut to get their name ID up.  Florida Southern College is neither famous in polling nor prolific.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: State of New York: Clinton 55% Sanders 34% (Siena) on: February 08, 2016, 05:32:35 pm
I imagine that Bernie will do much better than Obama in the upstate area that borders Vermont.

The bad news for Bernie Sanders is practically nobody lives in the North Country compared to the rest of the state.  Some of those counties are in the Burlington, VT TV market, and he will do well there.  But he'll be lucky if 50,000 Democratic voters turn out in that area.

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich
Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

Because very conservative Republicans don't like "NY values," even though they live there.

This, coupled with Upstate's hatred of everything New York City, is a recipe for Cruz to pick up a few delegates in New York.

Haven't polls shown Trump leading by a lot in Upstate New York?

Not this poll.  It shows Trump narrowly leading Cruz 24-20 Upstate.  That would translate into delegates for Cruz in at least some Upstate Congressional Districts.  If I remember correctly, if someone gets over 50% in a CD, they get all delegates.  Otherwise, a second-place finisher with over 20% of the vote gets 1 delegate, while the winner gets 2.

Note I said Cruz would get a few New York delegates, not even close to half, under this scenario.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL: Florida Southern College: Trump up 7, Clinton up 43-26 on: February 08, 2016, 02:44:47 pm
Nice work guys, poll every state BUT Nevada which is next.
I'm sure theFlorida Southern College would poll Nevada over Florida.
Is Quinnipiac in Iowa? Is Monmouth in New Hampshire?

Quinnipiac and Monmouth have a reputation for polling outside of their home states.  Florida Southern College does not.

UNLV has a polling institute, but so far they haven't polled Nevada (or at least haven't polled much).  Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, there are few active college pollsters in Nevada and it doesn't have the crappy private pollsters that Michigan has to fill the void.
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