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September 26, 2016, 08:54:46 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Luzerne County PA on: September 25, 2016, 10:47:09 pm
Axiom Strategy's latest poll has Trump up by 15 in Luzerne County.  Romney lost it by about 5.  That would be quite a swing.  Is it likely to be that big?  Probably not.

 
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2 on: September 24, 2016, 11:29:50 pm
D+10 sample? Amongst adults at least.

Last poll was C+8 (2-way), C+5 (4-way).

It was D+9 among RVs.  I can't find the partisan breakdown of LVs.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2 on: September 24, 2016, 11:14:38 pm
ABC News/Washington Post National Poll
Likely Voters:
Clinton 46% (+0 from Sept 8-10 poll)
Trump 44% (+3)
Johnson 5% (-4)
Stein 1% (-1)
None of these Candidates 1%
Don't Know/No Opinion 3%

Clinton 49% (-2)
Trump 47% (+4)
Neither (Volunteered) 1%
Would Not Vote (Vol.) 2%
No Opinion 1%

September 19-22; 651 LV; MoE +/- 4.5

Registered Voters (from the article):
Clinton 46%
Trump 46%

831 RV; MoE +/- 4
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's best areas in Essex County, New Jersey on: September 23, 2016, 10:22:46 pm
But South Orange has a lot of wealthy whites..isn't that Trump's "base"?

Yes, South Orange Village is fairly affluent, but it is about 30% African American and home to Seton Hall University.  Blacks, college students and college professors are the furthest thing from Trump's base.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's best areas in Essex County, New Jersey on: September 23, 2016, 10:15:02 pm
Here's the National PVI Map for Essex County, NJ:



Most of the Republican towns are in the northwestern part of the county.  

Trump won't appeal to South Orange or Montclair - their PVIs are way too red, and Montclair in particular is too wealthy and liberal - but I suppose national PVI bellwether Livingston is a possibility.  

There are PVI county maps for every state and PVI town maps for around 10 states here.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why isn't Hillary defending ME-02? on: September 23, 2016, 12:17:16 am
The Omaha TV market covers part of battleground Iowa.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Clinton campaign has been doing some TV advertising there.

As for why Clinton is not defending ME-02, I don't know.  You'd have to make an ad buy in 3 relatively cheap TV markets to fully defend it, but one of those markets (Portland) has the side benefit of reaching northern New Hampshire.  Perhaps they just don't think spending even a small amount of money for 1 EV is worth it, when they can spend just double or triple and reach part of a state with 20+ EVs, like Florida.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 23, 2016, 12:00:41 am
LOL wut?

It's a poll of Long Island done by Siena College for their newspaper and cable news station.  Suffolk voted 51-48 Obama in 2012.  Nassau voted 53-46 in 2012.  McCain lost both in 2008.

The poll shows that Trump is slightly outperforming the last two Republican candidates on Long Island - as many posters here expected.

Do you think Trump wins both, or is this mostly just big numbers in Suffolk?

Probably the latter.  Suffolk is almost always a few points more Republican than Nassau.  It's also less educated and less wealthy, IIRC.

Suffolk is also a slightly-Republican leaning PVI bellwether for the country.  A lot of the state and national bellwether counties in the Axiom poll, however, have shown significant shifts from each other and the national average - once again showing that this might be a realigning election.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 22, 2016, 11:57:00 pm
Wasn't this about O+7 in 2008 and O+5 in 2012 ?
Who cares?

Those, like me, who look at county polling to try to figure out what types of shifts we will see in the electorate this cycle.  It appears white ethnic New Yorkers are more Trump than they were Romney, especially Catholics.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 22, 2016, 11:54:35 pm
LOL wut?

It's a poll of Long Island done by Siena College for their newspaper and cable news station.  Suffolk voted 51-48 Obama in 2012.  Nassau voted 53-46 in 2012.  McCain lost both in 2008.

The poll shows that Trump is slightly outperforming the last two Republican candidates on Long Island - as many posters here expected.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 22, 2016, 11:33:17 pm
Siena College/Newsday/News 12 Poll of Long Island, NY
Trump 43%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%
Won't Vote (Volunteered) 1%
Don't Know/No Opinion 5%

Trump 44%
Clinton 44%
Someone Else (Vol) 3%
Won't Vote (Vol) 2%
Don't Know/No Opinion 7%

Nassau is 43-41 Trump in the four-way.  Suffolk is 44-37 Trump.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton +16 on: September 21, 2016, 11:45:32 pm
Wouldn't Vote 2% (+0)

1,055 Likely Voters

2% of likely voters wont vote. Good to know.

In the presidential race.  There are many other things on the California ballot.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton +16 on: September 21, 2016, 11:33:41 pm
Why so many California polls?

Field and PPIC routinely poll California on state issues.  The Presidential Horserace question is just one of many asked.  They also polled the Senate race and various state initiatives or proposals.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / CA - PPIC: Clinton +16 on: September 21, 2016, 11:31:14 pm
PPIC California Poll
Clinton 47% (+1 from July)
Trump 31% (+1)
Johnson 10% (+3)
Stein 5% (-1)
Someone Else 2% (+0)
Wouldn't Vote 2% (+0)
Don't Know 4% (-3)

September 9-18; 1,055 Likely Voters; MoE +/- 4.5%

Full release here.
14  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: September 20, 2016, 10:16:35 pm
LBP given 30 day time out.

For what?  Being a Trump supporter?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYTimes: Trump Used $885M in Taxpayer Subsidies To Get Rich on: September 19, 2016, 12:38:46 pm
I said he was a welfare queen, not a criminal. He knows how to secure unfair advantages by manipulating the system -- legally.

I don't understand how taking advantage of tax incentives available to all developers is securing an "unfair advantage".  The tax incentives are there for a reason - to get developers to build more housing, including subsidized housing.  Every major real estate developer is incentivized by those tax incentives.  That's the whole purpose of them.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYTimes: Trump Used $885M in Taxpayer Subsidies To Get Rich on: September 19, 2016, 11:48:29 am
Oh great, more of this Orwellian language that promotes the idea that the natural state of tax rates is 100% and anything below that is a giveaway / government subsidy.

Ah, which poster here asserted that? This is the kind of language that leads to flame wars, and gets Likely Voter into a bad mood.

The New York Times did, Torie.  It is implicit in their headline and first paragraph.

If you don't think Donald Trump took advantage of the tax breaks every New York developer did, then you must think he's a bad businessman.   Real estate is a competitive market.  If he did not take advantage of so-called tax breaks available to all developers, he would not have a competitive product.
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Fastest growing areas of the US by partisan lean on: September 19, 2016, 10:42:48 am
Nice maps, cinyc. Thanks!

I originally posted the maps around Memorial Day in the city and town estimates thread here.  Note that I think it was unincorporated Riverside County, California, not San Bernadino, that had the big change from net gain to net loss depending on whether you use the 2010 Actual Census data or 2010 Population Estimates Base as your baseline.  There were remainders of other major counties with that issue, which I detailed in that post.

I also did a diary on RRHElections with maps showing some patterns in cities.  I can't find if I replicated that diary here, like I sometimes do.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Fastest growing areas of the US by partisan lean on: September 19, 2016, 02:20:13 am
Consider this as a request/challenge for mapmakers if this information isn't already easily available.  For curiosity sake, I'm looking for a map that charts where population growth is most prevalent in each state and how partisan those growth areas are relative to the trend of the rest of the state.  (An obvious example being NOVA offsetting Republican trends and population decline in western VA.)  I'm particularly interested in how population shifts in Ohio and South Carolina might affect the political makeup of those states over time.

Thanks in advance. Smiley

To add on to the request, I'd love to see this for Southern California. Specifically Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties

The problem with California is that it doesn't have many county subdivisions for which census reported 2015 estimate data.  Unincorporated San Bernadino County, for example, is huge, and either gains or loses population depending on how you treat recent annexations.

The map of percentage gain controlling for annexations is here.

A total population increase map (i.e. numerical, not percentage growth) is here.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Fastest growing areas of the US by partisan lean on: September 18, 2016, 04:04:39 pm
My interactive map of population changes from 2010-2015 is here:
https://cinyc.carto.com/viz/7dda431c-220c-11e6-8b04-0ecd1babdde5/public_map

I think this is the version that treats annexation as population growth.  There is one error - Indianapolis shows no growth due to a technical issue.

There's no partisan data available, but you can probably eyeball it.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump takes to the stage to the tune of 'Do You Hear the People Sing' on: September 16, 2016, 09:02:14 pm
Some Democrats claimed Chester A. Arthur had actually been born in Quebec instead of Vermont. Hillary was probably just as responsible for that as she was the Obama birtherism.

There is little doubt in my mind that, at a minimum, Clinton was responsible for a whisper campaign spreading birther rumors in 2008.  A Clinton volunteer coordinator was responsible for sending birther e-mails.  And Clinton uber-confidant Sid Blumenthal visited the McClatchy D.C. bureau investigative editor to spread birther rumors.

But, like I said, the original birthers were Obama's own book publicists, lying about his birthplace in 1991 to sell more books by making him sound more cosmopolitan than he already was.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump takes to the stage to the tune of 'Do You Hear the People Sing' on: September 16, 2016, 07:08:29 pm
No. Why KENYA specifically? Tell me that.

Because Barack Obama's literary agent said so in promotional literature for Obama's book in 1991.  So, the original "birthers" were actually working on behalf of Obama to sell books.

Quote
And why was Obama the first president ever in American history to be asked for his birth certificate on these grounds?

He wasn't.  Chester Arthur was accused of being born in Canada in the 1880s.  But I'm sure that was because of "racism", too.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Axiom Strategies Swing Counties September 2016 on: September 15, 2016, 02:50:53 pm
As a native and resident of Watauga County, NC, it seems like a terrible choice as a bellwether. Using PVI and the fact that it went for Obama in 2008 and Romney 2012 ignores the county's unique demographic dynamics. The county skews incredibly young and incredibly white. College students make up around a third of population. Clinton clearly isn't inspiring the youth turnout like Obama. If you remove college students from the equation, the county is probably near 99% white. I will also note that the local GOP has been active in suppressing the youth vote by attempting to limit early voting and closing polling sites on the campus of Appalachian State. I could easily see a situation in which the county trends R, but the state of North Carolina trends D.

It is Watauga County's not-so-unique demographics that make it a bellwether.  Quite a few counties with mid-sized universities make it onto the bellwether list because the youth vote offsets the rest of the county.  You don't need to have a precise racial breakdown identical to the state to predict the state average.  In fact, due to racially polarized voting, those counties might not be the most representative, anyway.

Wautuga isn't the best bellwether for North Carolina due to its trend from 2008 to 2012, but it is one.  Other counties had smaller trends, but some are also smaller than Watauga, perhaps making them harder to poll.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Axiom Strategies Swing Counties September 2016 on: September 15, 2016, 01:59:30 pm
That's a really good lead in Door County.

Obama only won Door by 7 in 2012. If Clinton is up 9...

Still, of all the Wisconsin counties to poll, you pick Door? Why not Racine or Outagamie?

Because Door County is a state PVI bellwether county.  Racine and Outagamie are about 2 points more Republican than the state.

In fact, every single one of the counties they chose except Hillsborough, FL and Hamilton, OH are PVI bellwethers in their states with state PVIs less than D/R+1.   And Hillsborough and Hamilton are national PVI bellwethers, so they should tell us something about the state of the national race.

They picked good counties.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who'll win Bergen County, New Jersey? on: September 14, 2016, 08:18:37 pm
Clinton will win it.  As to which areas will be Trump's best, I present the Nationwide PVI Map for Bergen County, New Jersey, with most towns labeled:



Of the Bergen towns, boroughs, etc., it looks like Franklin Lakes and Saddle River are the most Republican. There's a definite north-south divide in the county.

All of my PVI project maps are here.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama can release Trump's tax returns per IRS code on: September 14, 2016, 08:07:38 pm
Even though the President could ask for Trump's tax returns if he wishes, It is a felony, punishable up to 5 years in prison, to release tax return information to people unauthorized to receive it, like the press.  In fact, it's also technically a felony for the press to print or publish purloined tax return information, but that raises First Amendment issues.

But none of that precludes him from pulling it, looking at it and then starting "many people are saying" style rumors, right?

Under the law, a report is eventually sent to Congress when the President decides to look at an individual's tax return.  Do you think the Republicans in Congress would let Obama off the hook if rumors start flowing from his office?
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