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March 30, 2015, 02:06:18 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Harry Reid retires!!! on: March 27, 2015, 04:38:11 pm
Good riddance to a real HP.  And good luck to Democrats with the obnoxious Chuck Schumer as Minority Leader.  The face of the party will be "progressives" from San Francisco and New York City.  That will play real well in the rest of the country.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 09:36:06 pm
Why are Illinois and New Mexico losing people? Huh Especially Illinois? I know growth slowed, but with immigration it should be growing?

There is about three times more domestic outmigration (-95,000)  from Illinois as foreign immigration (32,000), and the natural birth/death increase (54,000) doesn't make up the gap.  In other words, three times more U.S. residents are leaving than foreigners coming in, and there are not enough new babies to make up the gap.  People are moving from high-tax, high-cost, cold states like Illinois to the Sun Belt.

Illinois would be in an even worse position without the Chicagoland collar counties (i.e. suburbs and exurbs).  Cook County itself (Chicago) lost 179 residents.

New Mexico hasn't typically been a fast-growing state.  It is too cold to be truly sunbelt, and its main city isn't a regional hub like Denver.  Residents are moving out (-14,200), while very few foreigners are moving in (2,700), and net births/deaths (10,000) don't fully make up the difference.   What little growth there is has been largely due to oil workers in the counties around Carlsbad in the Southeast, and slow growth in the Albuquerque-Santa Fe corridor.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 08:22:48 pm
Interestingly, the entire population growth in NY is downstate. Since 2010 the state grew by 368,115 of which 368,179 is downstate (NYC, Long Island and Westchester - about 380 thousand if you include Rockland). The rest of the state actually lost a grand total of 64 residents Smiley

The core NYC metro counties are growing faster than the NYC exurbs in the CSA.  Bronx, Queens and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties picked up the most people, while Rockland grew fastest.  Nassau, Westchester, New York (Manhattan) and Orange grew slightly faster than the rest of the state, while Richmond (Staten Island) grew slower than the rest of the state, Suffolk was flat and Putnam, Dutchess and Ulster lost population. 

Similar patterns can be seen most of the more far-flung areas of the New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania parts of the CSA, with far-flung exurban Sussex and Hunterdon Counties, NJ losing population, along with Monroe, Pike and Carbon Counties, PA and New Haven and Litchfield Counties, CT.  Ocean County, NJ bucked the trend, likely due to its Orthodox Jewish and retirement communities, as did the two Allentown-area counties.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 08:00:37 pm
Here's the top 10 fastest-growing counties by percentage increase from 2013 to 2014 in counties with an estimated population of 10,000 or more as of July 1, 2014, the principal city/region and likely reason for the increase:

1) McKenzie, ND +18.3% (Watford City; Oil) - over 10,000 for the first time and not included on Census' lists
2) Williams, ND +8.7% (Williston; Oil)
3) Stark, ND +7.0% (Dickinson; Oil)
4) Sumter, FL +5.4% (The Villages; Retirement community)
5) Pickens, AL +5.1% (Carrolton/Aliceville; New jail)
6) Hays, TX +4.8% (San Marcos; Austin sprawl in northern part of the county)
7) Fort Bend, TX +4.7% (Sugar Land/Rosenberg; Houston sprawl in Sugar Land area)
8) Forsyth, GA +4.6% (Cumming; Atlanta sprawl)
9) Wasatch, UT +4.3% (Heber City; Exurban Provo)
10) Comal, TX +4.0% (New Braunfels; San Antonio sprawl in southern part of the county)

And the bottom 5:
1) Chattahoochee, GA -4.2% (Cussetta/Fort Benning; Perhaps a correction of a big bump in 2012 or military build down)
2) Hale, TX -3.0% (Plainview; Rural, in between Lubbock and Amarillo, but not close enough to either for sprawl)
3) Colfax, NM -2.9% (Raton; Rural Northern New Mexico)
4) Las Animas, CO -2.7% (Trinidad; Rural SE Colorado, directly north of Colfax, NM)
5) Phillips, AR -2.4% (Helena; Rural Mississippi Delta)
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 04:54:55 pm
When are the city estimates due?

May.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 02:32:56 pm
Census' press release has been relocated here

The fastest-growing Metropolitan Area since 2013 was The Villages, Florida, which grew by 5.4%.  Myrtle Beach, SC-NC was next, at 3.2%, followed by Austin, TX (+3.0%), Odessa, TX (+2.9%) and St. George in Utah's Dixie (+2.9%).  Three of the top 5 are probably characterized as retirement areas, with one state capital and one oil area.  Like Williams County, ND, it will be interesting to see if Odessa, TX grows next year as oil prices have gone bust.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 01:55:41 pm
Any predictions?

Since we're getting mid- and not end-2014 county estimates, Williams County, North Dakota (Williston) will be one of the fastest-growing counties again... for now.  It will be more interesting to see how much the population growth slows or declines by next year's estimates.

It's still towards the top. Have things slowed down since July?

In theory, yes.  Williams County, North Dakota is in the heart of the Bakken shale oil deposits.  With oil prices under $50 a barrel, there should be less drilling, and therefore, less need for workers, which should at least slow growth there, if not reverse it.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 25, 2015, 09:35:57 pm
Any predictions?

Since we're getting mid- and not end-2014 county estimates, Williams County, North Dakota (Williston) will be one of the fastest-growing counties again... for now.  It will be more interesting to see how much the population growth slows or declines by next year's estimates.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE3: End Daylight Savings in the Northeast Act on: March 22, 2015, 07:22:15 pm
What are the disadvantages to this bill?

1) It puts us out of sync with other east coast cities like Nyman for half the year.  That would make it more difficult to do business, and might cause workers to have to observe daylight savings time at work anyway.
2) Assuming you stick with EST instead of EDT, it will hurt the grilling and outdoor activities industries, among others, as there would be less daylight after work to grill and hike in shoulder months like March, April, September and October.
3) Energy efficiency would suffer, as people who sleep through the early daylight hour will have to turn on lights in the evening hour that would otherwise have been "saved".

I don't think this is a good idea.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 2: Stop PMing Me Act on: March 20, 2015, 09:39:52 pm
The Northeast has gotten around the constitutional issue with bans on regional office holding. But that obviously wouldn't be an effective penalty against non-Southerners, who don't care about holding a position in the South.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Opinion on Efficient referenda amendment on: March 20, 2015, 06:46:20 pm
I don't understand the arguments here. Are people voting against this alteration of the amendment because of the wording of the original amendment from years ago that wasn't the focus of the changes? Huh

Just because you don't like a long-existing part of the amendment doesn't mean you vote against what is being changed that is wholly separate.

Also, it's stupid to force an amendment to continue to pass through the Senate over and over again just because of the current and transient population of a couple of regions.

I voted against this because it is yet another attempt at game "reform" that its proponents never bother to explain why it is necessary and it unjustly usurps on regional rights by moving something that traditionally has been in control of the regions to the federal government.

I also strenuously object to allowing regions to revote on Constitutional Amendments until they pass. That needs to be changed.  Nobody should be able to move regions and vote twice for the same amendment.   That doesn't make sense, and could lead to tyranny by the majority party, as its members move to take over regions to pass their anti-region game "reform" agenda.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black Man Found Hanging from Tree in Mississippi on: March 19, 2015, 09:38:53 pm
Wouldn't a suicide be fairly obvious (knocked over chair, etc)? This is not like that case in Georgia where the person was hanging at the playground (which easily could have been a suicide). None the less, I was wrong to jump to conclusions so rapidly.

Not necessarily.  The man had been missing for over two weeks.  Evidence decays over time.  He also had a criminal record, including a murder or manslaughter conviction, so he may have had some natural enemies.  Who knows?  At this point, it's too early to jump to conclusions.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 2: Stop PMing Me Act on: March 19, 2015, 09:06:22 pm
You can't ban someone from voting in a regional election.  That's unconstitutional.  Federal election law trumps all regional laws, and if someone is eligible to vote in a federal election, they are eligible to vote in a regional election.  Period.  There is a previous Supreme Court case that ruled against the Southeast when it tried to create its own regional election rules and registry.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black Man Found Hanging from Tree in Mississippi on: March 19, 2015, 07:17:05 pm
This is vile. Who ever did this needs to be shot.

Please wait until the investigation concludes before jumping to conclusions.  It is very possible that this was a suicide, not a homicide.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Opinion on Efficient referenda amendment on: March 19, 2015, 02:12:33 pm
I agree with Poirot.  This is a bad amendment, with (perhaps) unintended consequences.

I also think the Senator(s) who propose or oppose amendments should publish a voter guide detailing reasons why voters should vote for or against the proposed Amendment on this board at the time the amendment is up for a vote.  We put a similar provision in place in the Northeast last Assembly session.

Too often, we are asked to vote on technical changes that nobody outside of the Senate understands without any explanation as to why we should make a change.  That's one reason why I almost always vote against unexplained constitutional amendments.  If I can't determine whether the proposed Amendment is necessary, I assume that it isn't.
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Reintroducing the Efficient Referenda Amendment (Again) on: March 19, 2015, 02:03:42 pm
Nay
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: March 2015 At-Large Special Senate Election on: March 13, 2015, 11:23:34 pm
AT-LARGE SENATE (to fill one vacancy)


[4] Adam Griffin of New Brunswick
Labor Party



[3] Foucaulf of Minnesota
The People's Party



[2] JohanusCalvinusLibertas (JCL) of Indiana
Federalist Party



[1] Poirot of Quebec
Independent



[  ] Write-in:______________________________



[  ] None of the above
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Governor Sawx - Come One, Come All (LG Nominated) on: March 09, 2015, 09:00:04 pm
Governor Sawx-

It has been mentioned in rpryor's confirmation thread that all it takes is three missed votes for a Northeast Representative to be removed from office.  That is true, under the Northeast Constitution.  But that provision has a long history, and was enacted when there was generally only one piece of legislation on the Assembly floor at a given time.   Now, there can be up to 4 pieces of legislation on the floor simultaneously, if you include the budget.

In order to stop turnover in the Assembly, it might be time to revisit the inactivity provision, increasing the number of missed consecutive votes to at least 6, to reflect this new reality.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Welcome, Federalists and Atlasians, to Middle Class Monday!!! on: March 09, 2015, 07:11:28 pm
x cinyc

The Middle Class is the bedrock on which the Atlasian economy is founded.  There is no reason to disrespect the middle class or not be concerned with their needs.
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Governor Sawx - Come One, Come All (LG Nominated) on: March 03, 2015, 08:51:00 pm
It is very sad that you proposed and signed a bill that treats the CJO as a prosecutor.  As I told you when you proposed the bill, the CJO is NOT a prosecutor, but a judge.  

Now, you've created a crime that has to be prosecuted by the CJO.  Who is going to hear the case?  There is no impartial Northeast judge to hear it.  Are you expecting charges be filed before the Altasian Supreme Court?  They could - and should - refuse to hear a case that is solely based on Northeast law.  So your new law is unworkable.

Also, no regional government has the power to ban voting in a regional election.  Federal law is supreme when it comes to voting rights.

Yes, that seems to be an oversight that I forgot to carry over when you amended the SirNick is a Terrorist Act. Considering the rapid pace that the Assembly is going at, I have full confidence a fix will be brought up soon.

I sent proposed language to Representative Winfield for a fix.

Like I said, though, I don't think we can ban someone from voting in regional elections.  There is an old court case involving the South's attempts to put different requirements for voting in regional elections than the federal ones.  The Atlasian Supreme Court held that they couldn't do so.

Also, while it's probably not your intent, a regional court can't ban anyone from holding federal office.  The "at any level of goverment" clause at the end of the law can't mean that.
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Governor Sawx - Come One, Come All (LG Nominated) on: March 03, 2015, 08:04:02 pm
It is very sad that you proposed and signed a bill that treats the CJO as a prosecutor.  As I told you when you proposed the bill, the CJO is NOT a prosecutor, but a judge.  

Now, you've created a crime that has to be prosecuted by the CJO.  Who is going to hear the case?  There is no impartial Northeast judge to hear it.  Are you expecting charges be filed before the Altasian Supreme Court?  They could - and should - refuse to hear a case that is solely based on Northeast law.  So your new law is unworkable.

Also, no regional government has the power to ban voting in a regional election.  Federal law is supreme when it comes to voting rights.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northeast Assembly Thread II on: February 26, 2015, 06:52:18 pm
I am out of a job because the new Assembly is now in session.  Elected officials should swear in again on the swear-in thread, even if they did it last session.  Good luck to the new Assembly!
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE 2: Amendment to the T.J. Detweiler Act (Passed) on: February 25, 2015, 11:34:57 pm
signed

Here you said you signed the bill, while in your office, you said you vetoed it. Which is true?
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE 3: Sirnick Is A Terrorist Amendment (At Final Vote) on: February 25, 2015, 03:02:37 pm
By a vote of 4-0-1 the bill has passed, and will go to the governor for his signature/veto.

This is a proposed Constituitional amendment that has received a majority vote of all voting and all Assemblyman. Per the Constituition, the governor doesn't need to sign it. It will automatically go to the voters for their approval next month.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE 3: Sirnick Is A Terrorist Amendment (Passed) on: February 25, 2015, 02:58:51 pm
This violates the national Constituition. No bills of attainder or ex post facto are allowed and this is such.

Article 1 Section 6 Clause 1 and Section 7 Clause 3 of the current Atlasian Constituition

Despite the Amendment's name, it would not and could not apply to Sirnick.  It will apply to anyone who does what Sirnick did in the future.  Past officeholder would apply to, say, me, if after this Assembly dies and I am no longer an Assemblyman,  delete the threads I made as Speaker way back when.
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