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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States on: August 30, 2016, 10:42:30 pm
I finished the #analysis for Missouri-Rhode Island.  There are only 11 states left to analyze, probably tomorrow.  Note that I had to update the North Dakota state PVI map due to a technical reason - the mapping software rounded the state PVI number to two decimal places, which created some color mismatches.

If you're wondering how the 2012 PVI bellwethers (I think Cook techinically calls them 2014 PVIs, not 2012) compared to the 2008 PVI bellwethers, I did a similar project for states with Senate races in 2010.  That old thread is available here.  Unfortunately, TinyPic ate some of the images.  I still should have them on my computer somewhere and will try to replace the broken links with new maps eventually.  That's one of the reasons why I'm trying to list all of the PVI bellwether counties in the text in this thread - in case the Atlas gallery eats these maps, too.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump break 80% in Niobrara County, WY? on: August 30, 2016, 01:13:02 pm
So there was a dramatic increase in household income here between 2000 and 2010...

Anyone know why (oilfield work, female correctional facility, etc...)?

Wyoming has had a bit of an oil and gas boom in part of the state due to fracking. It's also a big coal state (centered in Campbell County near Gillette), which is why I think Trump could outperform Romney in the eastern part of the state.  The only question there is whether Johnson will be viable, lowering Trump's total - though he'll probably overperform in the 2-party vote.  

The Mormon vote in southwest Wyoming could slightly lower Trump's percentage statewide, though.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States on: August 29, 2016, 10:43:55 pm
I finished the #analysis for Hawaii-Mississippi.  I also edited the Maryland map because it didn't show results for Baltimore City (both Baltimore County and Baltimore City showed the Baltimore County results on the map). 

I haven't fixed the nationwide or Carto.com maps to reflect the Baltimore City results yet - I will wait to see if there are more obvious errors before doing so.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump to Launch $10 Million Ad Buy For This Week on: August 29, 2016, 05:55:48 pm
How expensive are TV ads in Utah, and what percentage of the population do they reach?

I would imagine radio ads might be more effective in many remote and rural parts of the state, as well as extremely inexpensive.... same might go for Alaska if one wanted to dip the toes in the water.

All of Utah is in the Salt Lake City TV market, making it one of the more efficient states to advertise in.  The Salt Lake TV market bleeds a little into neighboring states, but not much, making it cost-effective since you're not paying to reach many out-of-staters unlike, say Philadelphia or Boston for New Hampshire.   

Alaska is in 3 TV markets - though Fairbanks and especially Juneau are very small.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump to Launch $10 Million Ad Buy For This Week on: August 29, 2016, 05:52:01 pm
Is that all still true in the days of cable/direct tv, etc.? I know you can actually tailor ads to  specific suburbs in Chicago area by buying specific cable systems. I would think that would be doable in more rural areas as well.

Buying cable won't get you the main audience that political ad makers tend to target - the local newscasts.  It also is less efficient in more rural areas because of higher satellite penetration - DirecTV generally doesn't sell hyper-local ads. 

The main political ad buys are still made on over-the-air TV stations.  And, at least until recently (I'm not sure of the status of the significantly viewed satellite regulations), the satellite providers generally only provide the in-market local stations, meaning if you live in rural Northern New Hampshire in the Portland market and have satellite instead of cable, you might not get WMUR at all.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Election research question on: August 29, 2016, 04:03:33 pm
For what state(s)?  Some states (Alaska comes to mind) report results by LD.  In other states that make precinct-level data available, you can use Excel to create results as long as you can recreate the LD borders or find a LD precinct relationship file.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump to Launch $10 Million Ad Buy For This Week on: August 29, 2016, 03:58:36 pm
He's free to waste money in Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is cheap and a rather important 2nd path. It's a wise decision.

To adequately cover New Hampshire is hardly cheap - you have to buy in the pricey Boston TV market, and maybe Portland, ME and Burlington, VT to reach the northern parts of the state.  Just making an ad buy on WMUR (Manchester, NH's ABC Affiliate which is technically in the Boston TV market) likely isn't sufficient.  When the ad buys are fully in, I'll check what Trump actually bought in to reach the state.

If you're already buying Portland to reach Northern New Hampshire, adding on the cheap Bangor and Presque Isle, ME markets to reach all of Maine (and ME-02) isn't that much of a stretch.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump to Launch $10 Million Ad Buy For This Week on: August 29, 2016, 03:50:30 pm
Quote
Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  3m3 minutes ago 
Per NBC's ad-tracking sources, the Trump camp has purchased $2.8M in 4 states (OH, PA, NC, FL) -- but not $10M in 9 states, at least not yet

So far the buy hasn't happened yet in other 5 states.

I wouldn't read so much into this.  There is always a lag between an ad buy and when the TV stations put the buys in their political database.  When all the data came in, Trump's ad buys were almost always as advertised during the primaries.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States on: August 28, 2016, 11:14:51 pm
As you can tell, this is still a work in progress.  I have all the maps up, and #analysis for the first 10 states, Alabama-Georgia.  That's it for tonight.  The links to those states on the first page now work.

I'm going to try to finish the county map #analysis over the next two days or so, and then will work on town maps if anyone is interested.

Because I pulled the data from literally 100 different sources and pasted it into a huge spreadsheet, there could be errors.  Please tell me if something looks wrong.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NE-02 polls? on: August 28, 2016, 10:39:35 pm
Maine pollsters tend to break their results down by CD, so you might see a ME-02 subsample at some point.  The state only has 2 CDs, so you get an okay sample size for ME-02.  But the polls usually aren't weighted for ME-02, so they might not be worth much.

You probably won't see a NE-02 poll, though.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 10 on: August 28, 2016, 07:41:35 pm
Town Reserve 10
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 9 on: August 28, 2016, 07:40:32 pm
Town Reserve 9
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 8 on: August 28, 2016, 07:40:09 pm
Town Reserve 8
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 7 on: August 28, 2016, 07:39:46 pm
Town Reserve 7
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 6 on: August 28, 2016, 07:38:56 pm
Town Reserve 6
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 5 on: August 28, 2016, 07:38:33 pm
Town Reserve 5
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 4 on: August 28, 2016, 07:37:27 pm
Town Reserve 4
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 3 on: August 28, 2016, 07:37:06 pm
Town Reserve 3
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 2 on: August 28, 2016, 07:36:17 pm
Town Reserve 2
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Town Reserve 1 on: August 28, 2016, 07:35:56 pm
Town Reserve 1
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Nationwide PVI Maps on: August 28, 2016, 07:35:34 pm
CONUS
State PVI:


National PVI:
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Wyoming PVI Maps on: August 28, 2016, 07:35:12 pm
Wyoming
State PVI:


National PVI:
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Wisconsin PVI Maps on: August 28, 2016, 07:34:50 pm
Wisconsin
State PVI:


National PVI:
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / West Virginia PVI Maps on: August 28, 2016, 07:34:29 pm
West Virginia
State PVI:


National PVI:
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Washington PVI Maps on: August 28, 2016, 07:33:59 pm
Washington
State PVI:


National PVI:
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