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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Team Clinton Spent $26M on Battleground Ads in June. Trump Spent $0 on: June 28, 2016, 04:55:32 pm
Trump is doing the same thing he did during the primary - waiting until late in the game to advertise on TV.  Trump let the others, especially Rubio, advertise in primary states for weeks or even months before he came with a substantial ad buy the last two weeks or so before the election.

He also led in the vast majority of primary polls from September 2015 onwards....the same isn't the case now.

Not in every state, which is really the only thing that matters when making local ad buys.  Trump still stuck to pretty much the same ad buy strategy regardless of the primary polls (unless he was really far behind, in which case he didn't buy any) - come in late and substantial.  Whether it will work this time is obviously an open question.  But Trump is not changing his ad buy strategy from the primaries.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Team Clinton Spent $26M on Battleground Ads in June. Trump Spent $0 on: June 28, 2016, 04:30:43 pm
Trump is doing the same thing he did during the primary - waiting until late in the game to advertise on TV.  Trump let the others, especially Rubio, advertise in primary states for weeks or even months before he came with a substantial ad buy the last two weeks or so before the election.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many airports have you been to? on: June 28, 2016, 12:27:38 am
By my count, I've purposely flown to, from or through 95 airports, flown through and deplaned to stretch my legs on a direct flight on 4 more, landed at, but stayed on the plane for another 4, and visited but did not fly from 5 other airports.  So 95, 99, 103 or 108, depending on how you want to calculate it.

With such an exhaustive list, I could have missed some airports, though.
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: June 26, 2016, 05:36:30 pm
An amendment incorporating cinyc's (previously adopted) proposal:

Quote
ARTICLE I
The Legislative Power.

...
Section 8. Whenever a vacancy should occur in the composition of the Assembly, the Governor shall appoint a replacement to fill the unexpired term. If the vacancy arises fewer than 336 hours before the commencement of the next regularly scheduled election, the appointed delegate shall serve the remainder of the present term; otherwise, they shall serve only until a new delegate may be elected.
 
ARTICLE II
The Executive Power.

...
Section 5. Should the Governor, by reason of death, impeachment, recall, or resignation, become unable to execute the duties of his office, then the Lieutenant Governor shall become Acting Governor until a new governor may be elected. If there is no Lieutenant Governor at the time of the vacancy, then the Speaker of the Assembly shall become Acting Governor. If there is neither a Lieutenant Governor nor a Speaker at the time of the vacancy, the delegate with the longest continuous service in the Assembly shall become Acting Governor. The person serving as Acting Governor need not vacate their post in the Assembly, but they shall have no vote in its proceedings and shall exercise no administrative powers over it so long as they continue to exercise the powers of governor.

...

ARTICLE V
Elections.

...
Section 6. Except in December, all elections for Governor, Assembly, and federal Senate shall begin on the penultimate Friday of the given month. In December, all elections shall begin on the second Friday of the month. All special elections for Governor and Assembly shall begin on the Friday following the creation of the vacancy to be filled. The appropriate election administrator shall open the voting booth at 12:00:00 AM, Eastern Standard Time. Voting shall continue for 72 hours, and no vote cast more than 72 hours after the voting booth was opened shall be considered valid. The election administrator must accept any absentee ballots cast no more than 168 hours prior to the commencement of the election.

That doesn't seem to cover special elections for the regional Senate seat.  Are we not allowed to have them under the federal constitution?
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Challenge to election administrator nomination on: June 26, 2016, 12:14:13 am
This is ridiculous.


Look, Poirot I have a lot of respect for you, but Atlasia is going through a transition right now and one thing this game doesn't need is nitpicky ass lawsuits that don't change anything except to sap up precious time and delay in the implementation of the god damn reforms. Arguably, the whole reason this process had to be rushed was because of the previous such lawsuit delayed the seating of the House, a lawsuit mind you, that didn't change the result in any election for which the ruling applied.
 
Also, the election is still going to be certified by Rpryor anyway, and therefore he will handle any all matters pertaining to the application of laws and such. All Tmth did was open a booth, so that we could elect a President before we litteraly run out of time. Adam leaves office in a matter of days, not weeks, DAYS!!!

What do you think happens when the Presidential term expires and we have no President or Vice President. There are no succession laws in place. Do you really want to nuke this game like that? No Preisdent to appoint anybody, or sign a law pertaining to his succession. Basically a year plus of hard work is for nothing and Al, TNF and their criminal gang wins. Is that what you want?

The most important lawsuits are the ones filed early.  They set a precedent for what is the law to come.  That previous supposedly nitpicky lawsuit about who could vote in the House elections set an important precedent that applies to future elections where the election might be decided by those who just re-registered, or might lead us to a constitutional amendment to fix this loophole.  It was important.

This lawsuit is equally important, and will determine which branch of Congress has confirmatory power.  It is very important that the very first acts of the new government are done to the letter of the law, as they are the most likely to set precedent for the future.
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2016 Federal Election on: June 25, 2016, 08:17:37 pm
REPUBLIC OF ATLASIA - In Dave We Trust
Official Ballot
PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF ATLASIA


[1] Leinad/Lumine
Federalist Party/Civic Renewal



[2] Harry Truman/Kalwejt
Labor Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who wins now? on: June 24, 2016, 12:49:43 am
Horse hockey "it won't." It will have ramifications on the global economy, and those ramifications will be negative, and those will help Trump.

The actual "Brexit" won't even happen until well after the election. I'm reading it could take as long as two years for the UK to fully withdraw.

If anything the immediate impact will be POSITIVE for the US economy since the dollar is now worth a lot more in comparison to the pound.

A strong dollar isn't good for American exporters.  It makes American-made goods more expensive overseas.  Imports to the U.S. would get cheaper, but we don't exactly need deflation right now.  I guess it's good if you're in the market for a Jaguar, but most Americans aren't.  Trade with Great Britain is pretty balanced - there's not much of a deficit or surplus.

Anyway, the currency exchange rates always fluctuate.  The Pound is probably oversold right now. The situation will correct itself over the next week.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Brexit's effect on US General Election on: June 23, 2016, 10:57:39 pm
The Brexit probably will have little direct effect on the U.S. election, but should serve as a wake up call for those who think Hillary Clinton is inevitable and going to win easily in November.  Trump is trying to harness some of the same forces in the U.S. that the Leave campaign did in Britain, particularly on putting America first and immigration policy.  Whether it will work here is an open question, but is a question that should not be ignored.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:41:51 pm
Remain is now a 7/1 relative longshot on Betfair Exchange.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:34:15 pm
Pound is collapsing. Great time to visit the UK!

It is the dollar that is skyrocketting. Every other currency is in the free fall.

The Japanese Yen is up relative to the dollar, I think.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:30:18 pm
GBP down 6%

And the Euro is down 2.5%.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:27:10 pm
Remain took a big hit on the Betfair Exchange over the past few minutes, and is now only at about 30%.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:22:59 pm
ITV said earlier that folks in Washington going to reevaluate their European priorities, could see a future of closer relations with Berlin, Paris, and Brussels while distancing itself from London. RIP special relationship.

More scaremongering from the remain camp.  President Clinton might try to pull such a stunt, but a President Trump would most certainly not.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 09:13:28 pm
Leave is ahead of stay again on Betfair Exchange (barely).
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 08:54:59 pm
Now Remain is up by about 4,000.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 08:52:13 pm
Leave is now ahead by about 3,500 votes.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 08:30:10 pm
Predictit has Remain back ahead now.  I am not sure it is justified.

So does Betfair Exchange.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 08:04:27 pm
I spoke too soon.  Leave has gone ahead of Remain on Betfair Exchange, too.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 08:03:30 pm
Remain is still ahead of Leave on the Betfair Exchange... for now...
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's best areas of Manhattan in the GE on: June 23, 2016, 06:21:35 pm
The southwestern part of the Upper East Side would be my guess, but could see Hillary sweeping every precinct in Manhattan.

Trump actually performed better in the (relatively) poorer parts of the Upper East Side east of Second Avenue. i.e. Yorkville.  Kasich won most of the richer precincts closer to Central Park.  How this translates to the general election is anyone's guess - there are probably more Republicans in the Southwestern part of the UES closer to Central Park, but they're not exactly Trump Republicans.  Romney couldn't even win a populated precinct on the UES.  Trump won't come close.

As I said before, the only Manhattan precincts that Trump has a chance of winning are the precinct that includes Trump Tower (which, IIRC, was a tie in 2012), and one or two very sparsely populated precincts where you don't get a representative sample of Manhattan's population.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's best areas of Manhattan in the GE on: June 22, 2016, 11:40:25 pm
Trump doesn't have much of a chance of winning anywhere in Manhattan, save a few sparsely populated precincts with few voters and the Trump Tower precinct.  Neighborhood-wise, he'll probably do best on the Upper East Side, but probably will run behind Romney and other presidential-level Republicans, who lost there.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: June 22, 2016, 08:32:33 pm
Do the impeachment rules stand in the event that only three Representatives serve in the Assembly?  We might want to consider revising the Constitution to require a unanimous vote on impeachment, should the occasion arise that the Assembly gets two very partisan legislators who want to start a power coup.

I don't see the problem here.  Under the proposed constitution, impeachment requires a four-fifths vote.  That would require unanimity if the Assembly has only 3 members, as two-thirds is less than four-fifths.  So all 3 Assembly members would have to vote to impeach in an Assembly of 3.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Northern Regional Committee on: June 21, 2016, 06:33:16 pm
So what's the current issue on the agenda? I'm a bit confused as to what we're discussing/formally voting on

Basically, we should be debating how to handle vacancies.  The issue is whether to hold special elections when seats become vacant within 2 months of the next regularly scheduled election or just let the governor appoint Assemblymen and Senators, and the Lt. Governor/Speaker become permanent governor in the event of a gubernatorial vacancy.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Clinton have a shot in South Dakota in the general? on: June 21, 2016, 06:07:21 pm
Given the current state of polling, Clinton has about as much of a chance of winning R+10 South Dakota as Trump does of winning D+6 New Jersey - not much of one.

Are you factoring in the polling bias against Hillary?  That accounts for at least another 5-6 points.

I don't believe in polling bias in June polling.  The polls are what they are.  And there is no evidence the polls are biased against anyone.

There is ample evidence that the pollsters are fudging the numbers to silence #NeverTrump.  You need to add 5 points to any Hillary lead.  49-42 in Florida is 54-37 (give or take).

Sorry.  Quinnipiac University is not part of some vast pro-Clinton conspiracy to ensure Trump is not replaced as the nominee.  PPP, maybe, given their track record in Missouri, but most of the rest of the pollsters, especially the university pollsters, have no motive to skew results toward Trump.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Clinton have a shot in South Dakota in the general? on: June 21, 2016, 05:54:42 pm
Given the current state of polling, Clinton has about as much of a chance of winning R+10 South Dakota as Trump does of winning D+6 New Jersey - not much of one.

Are you factoring in the polling bias against Hillary?  That accounts for at least another 5-6 points.

I don't believe in polling bias in June polling.  The polls are what they are.  And there is no evidence the polls are biased against anyone.
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