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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Christie in 2013 election on: September 28, 2014, 09:44:33 pm
Second, did Christie voters split the ticket and vote for the dem legislative candidates or did they just vote for Christie and ignored the legislative races. In any case Christie won big but Republicans did not gain seats in the NJ Legislature.  I find that strange

Coattails are overrated.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Selzer & Co.: Ernst up, outside MoE on: September 27, 2014, 09:54:06 pm
Braley is only down six, yet trails with rural voters by 43% in what is a state with a sizable rural population. No matter how great Ernst supposedly is (she really isn't great), she's not going to win rural voters by that much. There is still plenty of room for Braley to win, it's not like he's going to only get 15% of rural voters, I don't think Democrats do that poorly among rural voters even in next door Nebraska.

I'm sure the MoE on a small subgroup like rural voters is pretty large.  Anyone can pick a strange result in a crosstab subgroup in a poll to try to discredit it.  Therefore, every poll is suspect if you don't want to believe it.  Of course, that doesn't change the fact that this poll was conducted by what traditionally has been the gold standard of Iowa pollsters, which 538 rated an A+.

That being said, why should rural voters back the guy who denigrated Senator Grassley for being a farmer?  Braley doesn't seem to be in touch with rural issues or voters.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-Sen: Amanda Curtis (D) raises $440K in one month on: September 25, 2014, 06:28:33 pm
Has anyone polled this at all lately? I know the Republican will win, but still, give us some numbers.

don't expect to see MT polled much if at all: conventional wisdom isn't considering it remotely competitive and it's one of two states (along with ND) that ban robopolls so it's expensive to poll

Since when does Montana ban robopolls?  Both Rasmussen and PPP have polled it this cycle, suggesting that it doesn't.  IIRC, the other state besides North Dakota than bans robopolls is Indiana.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11: GBA (D): Tied race on: September 22, 2014, 03:44:28 pm
Apparently, Staten Island New York likes Republicans incumbents so much that even ones with indictments can get elected.

Fixed it for you.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-24: Siena: Rep. Maffei up 8 on: September 22, 2014, 12:00:19 am
Crosstabs here.

Governor's race is 44-32-15, Cuomo.  One of the Green Party's best showings yet.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-01: Siena: Rep. Bishop (D) up 10 on: September 19, 2014, 06:39:59 pm
If Columbia County, and Hudson in particular, is at all representative of Upstate NY that certainly rings a bell. Green is the dominate religion up here, and I mean to use that term - it's akin to theological, as opposed to anything remotely data based driven, or well based on trying to balance in a way I think at all reasonable, the costs versus benefits of going green. In the meantime, in Hudson we pay more in utility bills, because of a self imposed it must be from 75% renewable energy sources mandate. Sure it squeezes many pay check to pay check folks, but hey, it's respecting the planet on which we are so privileged to stride.

Columbia County may be the most Green county Upstate, but I don't think it is typical.  It certainly is one of the more Democratic counties in Upstate New York, unlike most ruralish counties in Central and Western New York.  It has some Upstate cousins, like Tompkins (Ithaca) and to a lesser extent, Ulster and Greene Counties across the river, but it's somewhat in a league all its own.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-18: Siena: Maloney (D) winning by 8 on: September 18, 2014, 08:50:54 pm
Cuomo-Astorino is actually closer than the House race.  It's 45-40-7 Cuomo.  The Green candidate is doing slightly better here than in NY-4, but not by much.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-04: Siena: Rice (D) easily winning on: September 18, 2014, 08:47:26 pm
Cuomo is at 58-31-5 in the district.  Again, the Green Party candidate isn't doing as well on Long Island as he is Upstate.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Anti-Semitic candidate in Kentucky on: September 18, 2014, 05:13:12 pm
Yeah, anyone can run for office, or run in a primary, if they have the filing fee. It's not an issue until the party gives them any sort of approval.

That being said, he should of course be loudly condemned just for being a revolting bigot.

Other candidates are probably better off ignoring him so that he doesn't get an outsized platform for his bigoted message.  Everyone knows it's repulsive.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Markey with Strong Lead in Massachusetts on: September 18, 2014, 04:59:35 pm
So much for another Republican pickup.

Who said this was going to be a Republican pickup?
A lot blue avatars are screaming "wave" and in a wave, this seat would be in contention.


Massachusetts tipping to the Republicans in a wave year?  It's a reliably Democratic state with no Republican representatives or Senators.  Who said Massachusetts would be one to tip over in a wave?  Nobody.  Perhaps it could tip, like any state, wave or no wave, if a terrible candidate like Coakley were the nominee and Republicans nominated a stellar candidate, but Coakley's running for governor, not Senate.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-01: Siena: Rep. Bishop (D) up 10 on: September 17, 2014, 08:27:43 pm
I don't like this poll.  It doesn't show a Republican ahead so it is junk.  24% of Republicans are voting for Bishop?  This isn't California, it's Suffolk County, New York.  That's not going to happen.   Plus, Newsday is a biased liberal source that can't be trusted.   And Siena is a horrible poster.  /sarcasm

More seriously, Cuomo is up 52-32-6 with 9% undecided.  There's not much love for the Green candidate in Eastern Suffolk County, either, compared to Upstate.

Crosstabs here.

Last time I checked Bishop didn't threaten to a throw a reporter off a balcony and then get indicted.

If that happened, yes, it would be absolutely silly to show 24% of Republicans backing him.

see the /sarcasm.

Well, IceSpear is right that my sarcasm was partially directed at his comment in the NY-11 thread, but more generally directed toward those who try to unskew polls just because they don't like the result.  Unskewing polls because of supposedly erroneous crosstabs didn't work in 2012.  It's not going to work in 2014, either.

I take polls at face value for what they are - a snapshot of the race at a particular time by a particular pollster using that pollster's particular methodology.  Some pollsters might be better than others, but trends in a particular pollster's polls at least tells us something about the general direction of the race, even if they're the worst pollster in the world.  I'm not doubting a poll's veracity because of the TV network or newspaper that sponsored it.  And I don't treat any pollster as the gold standard.  Doing well in 2012 doesn't mean their polls will do well in 2014.  Mason-Dixon fell from grace last cycle.  Who's to say PPP won't tank this cycle or Rasmussen won't improve?  We won't know until election day.

Internals and internals done for an interest group are generally suspect, though, because they often skew their release to get the result they want.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-01: Siena: Rep. Bishop (D) up 10 on: September 17, 2014, 06:16:19 pm
I don't like this poll.  It doesn't show a Republican ahead so it is junk.  24% of Republicans are voting for Bishop?  This isn't California, it's Suffolk County, New York.  That's not going to happen.   Plus, Newsday is a biased liberal source that can't be trusted.   And Siena is a horrible poster.  /sarcasm

More seriously, Cuomo is up 52-32-6 with 9% undecided.  There's not much love for the Green candidate in Eastern Suffolk County, either, compared to Upstate.

Crosstabs here.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 17, 2014, 06:08:59 pm
This poll has 27% of Democrats voting for Grimm...LOL

And just looked at the crosstabs. It has 41% of Democrats backing the repeal of Obamacare. HAHAHAHAHA. Staten Island might be eccentric, but it's not West Virginia. This poll is pure horse manure.

Staten Island has plenty of DINOs who only register as Democrats to have a voice in citywide and statewide primary elections and older people who simply haven't changed their registration as Democrats strayed farther and farther to the left.  It is not the Upper West Side.

And, as I said, BOTH candidates' internal polling agrees with this poll.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 07:54:33 pm
Politico isn't a reliable news source.

Yeah, I'm sure Politico is lying about internals.  Because the candidates couldn't raise a stink about bad reporting and just release their internals to prove them wrong.  They'd just let a false narrative lie.

What is a reliable news source to you?  Daily Kos?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 07:03:43 pm
This is Siena we're talking about. Their congressional polls have an awful track record.

According to Politico, internal polling from both sides says the same thing - Grimm has a slight lead.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 06:47:07 pm
Dear god. How is Recchia blowing this so badly? this should be an easy seat. I'd either be a Recchia or Bardel voter.

He's not a good fit for the district.  Recchia is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, and is too liberal for the district.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 06:09:59 pm
The gubernatorial race is 60-28-3 Cuomo/Astorino/Hawkins.  There is little appetite for the Green party candidate in most of NYC.

Crosstabs here.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 06:05:50 pm
NY 1 News/Capital New York/Siena College Research Institute poll of NY-11

Grimm (R) 44%
Recchia (D) 40%
Bardel (G) 4%
Undecided 12%

September 9-14, 2014; 585 likely voters; MoE +/- 4%
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 16, 2014, 06:03:01 pm
Siena's poll is 44-40 Grimm with 4% for the Green Party candidate and 12% undecided.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 16, 2014, 02:20:59 pm
What makes this cycle so different for the Staten Island district?

Grimm has been indicted for dealings with the restaurant he owned before entering Congress and threatened to throw a reporter off a balcony for asking him about it.

What's unclear is whether any of this really matters in a New York City election.  Two New York State Senators under indictment recently won their primaries.  Charlie Rangel keeps winning reelection despite his ethics difficulties.  And you can't assume all or even most voters know about the indictments in such an expensive media market.  We should see a Siena poll at 7PM tonight which will help answer these questions.

Siena is also polling NY-1, which will be released tomorrow.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: HI-Rassy: Schatz (D) with mega-lead on: September 15, 2014, 01:13:19 pm
I for one am happy that Rasmussen is "wasting" money polling safe states.  More polling is better than none.   Plus, Hawaii isn't a true safe state anyway, since the governor's race could be relatively close.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538 on Alaska polling on: September 14, 2014, 08:34:06 pm
Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.

I think he's talking about the within Alaska races where, say, a Republican incumbent was running.

The Presidential races also show a real polling bias toward the Democratic candidate.  It's not just incumbency.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538 on Alaska polling on: September 14, 2014, 08:31:02 pm
Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 12, 2014, 06:23:43 pm
We're supposed to get a Siena College poll of the race in the near future.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-21 (Siena)- Stefanik holds double digit lead on: September 12, 2014, 01:08:52 am
I want to know what Hawkins numbers in the governor's race are here.

There's a link to the Excel file with all the crosstabs in the article.  The Gubernatorial race was 44-35-12, Cuomo/Astorino/Hawkins, with Hawkins doing best in the counties near Albany (17%) and worse in the North Country.
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