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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: Today at 11:59:21 am
cinyc, how many responses so far? Any clues?

We're up to 355/567 responses.  Of those, 236 are usable - i.e. didn't choose the "I am not likely to vote in this election" option.  We're on track to get about 375 or so usable responses, if current rates continue.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 21, 2017, 06:20:45 pm
Can you just say whether Quist or Gianforte is in the lead so far? Pleeease? (I know it doesn't mean much I'm just really impatient lol)

It's way too early to responsibly do that.  There are too few respondents.  A pro-Quist or pro-Gianforte sample as lopsided as your Google Poll can easily change the bottom line.  Once you get more respondents, that becomes less possible.

Patience is a virtue.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 21, 2017, 05:00:49 pm
When is the pending Gravis poll supposed to be released?

I don't think Gravis necessarily absolutely promised to release a new poll.  Their Tweet only says that they're going to TRY to release another one. 

The blog on their website that usually lists poll releases is currenly down.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 21, 2017, 04:47:08 pm
Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

The survey was put into the field around midnight, Mountain Time.  It's too early to say anything about the returns.  We're only up to 165/567 respondents.  The poll should be completed by tomorrow or (most likely) Tuesday.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: European Ancestry By State on: May 20, 2017, 08:19:04 pm
So the Census only lets you pick one of these ethnicities?  My ethnic mix is no more than 30% any one thing, so if I was answering this, I guess I'd just go with the plurality contribution to my mix (which in my case is English).  Still, it would be interesting if someone did a study that accounted for people being multiple ethnicities.  Has AncestryDNA or one of those outfits ever released a US map of their results?


I think Census allows you to choose 2 ancestries.  There is a separate category for first-reported ancestry.  Is this correct, RINO Tom?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 20, 2017, 07:18:06 pm
I see what you're saying.

So why are the Google polls being done on this race all showing Quist in the lead, even with weighting, while all the Gravis polls and the Dem super pac poll are showing Gianforte in the lead? Is it to do with the Google polls being biased towards internet users or something?

Not all the Google polls have shown Quist in the lead.  My last poll back in mid-April found Gianforte with a 10 point lead (weighted).  That poll was taken around the time of the first Gravis poll and the Emerson poll.

Quite frankly, I'm not sure whether these Google polls are good for anything but entertainment value.  They have been all over the place.  Part of the reason is because most people other than me have had relatively small sample sizes - 333, which maybe yields 240 non-Undecideds/Not Likely to votes).  Even my polls have only gotten 300-355 usable responses. My first Google Survey back in March had Quist up by something unbelieveable, like 14 or 17 points.  

The one-question methodology we are using is extremely suspect.  The fact that we don't have a registration based sample or a way to exclude non-voters in a one-question poll is suspect.  The fact that we can only weight by age, sex and (maybe) region is suspect.  And the Google polls that various Atlas users commissioned before the November election were off more than they were on.  So I always take these with a huge grain of salt.  This may be my last attempt at a Google Survey if it isn't close to reality this time.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 20, 2017, 06:52:53 pm
For example, I purchased a very small 60 sample size Google poll for the Montana race, there's only 26 responses in, but Quist leads Gianforte beyond the margin of error that google displays.

With 26 responses out of 60 in, the result so far is:

Rob Quist 46.2%

Greg Gianforte 11.5%

Undecided 30.8%

Won't vote 7.7%

When I look at the floor/ceiling that google shows me of Gianforte and Quist's support, Quist leads so much that his floor based on the margin of error is basically tied with the ceiling of Gianforte's vote share.

The ceiling of Gianforte's vote share is 28.9%, the floor of Quist's vote share is 28.8%. So would that indicate that the worst outcome for Quist is a 0.1% Gianforte lead?

Can you please educate me about this? I'm really interested

The link for the poll (it's still in progress): surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4 (can't post links yet)

The sample size is going to be too small for any meaningful analysis, unfortunately.  Quist likely will lead it in the end, but the MoE is going to be huge.  Raw, it's currently 12-3-1 Quist-Gianforte-Wicks.  There's no way that the poll would end up that lopsided with more respondents.

Your poll also currently faces the Google App vs. Website Ad polling sample issue - Usually, Google Surveys draw from both types, but with a small sample, you're getting all pro-candidate responses from websites, instead of the App.  The two types can poll differently. For example, if the first 25 voters are from the App (where respondents get paid for answering the poll and, IIRC, can't skip the question), you might end up with different results if the next 35 are from website Google Ads. At a quick glance, your poll is also slightly Western-Montana heavy - and we've seen a huge regional divide in all Google polls.

I usually track the different types in my spreadsheets.  (Here's the spreadsheet for Castro's recent poll, for example).
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 20, 2017, 06:19:08 pm
Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?

Cool! Do you think you can give us some updates as the responses start to come in? Like at 100 responses/300 responses etc

I usually try to wait until the poll is completed before giving updates.  The problem with a very early update, like at 100 responses, is that the poll isn't reliable with 100 responses.  I've seen leads change before with that few responses.  I might drop a few hints if someone's lead seems stable.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 20, 2017, 03:49:29 pm
Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

Are you still planning on doing that poll cinyc?

Yes.  It will go into the field very late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  The sample size will likely be 566, which hopefully gets us 400 useable respondents.  And I'm going to tweak the question a little because some people may have already voted absentee.

New wording (assuming it fits the character limit):

Many Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. Others may have already voted or will vote absentee.  For whom would or did you vote?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 08:21:20 pm
This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

If I've done the math right, based on the 2016 November CPS Data, about 13% of the VAP was 70+ in 2016, which roughly correlates with the Silents.  But they made up about 15.8% of all 2016 voters.  In Montana, their percentage is higher - 15.2% of the VAP and 17.8% of 2016 voters.  

The 70+s outnumber baby boom seniors (65-69) by roughly 2:1 in the 65+ cohort.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 07:42:18 pm
I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.

Candidate quality matters.  If the now trending section is any indication, the most-read articles on the Lee Newspapers' websites are these stories about Quist and Gianforte's personal problems, not the AP copy about what is going on in Washington.  That's not to say that what's going on in Washington doesn't matter - but that local issues and candidate quality matter, too.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 02:55:53 pm
I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 02:42:08 pm
I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-3: Chaffetz retiring on: May 19, 2017, 12:42:16 pm
According to the Lt. Governor's Office, the special election to fill the seat will be on November 7.  Any primary would be on August 15.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 12:19:01 am
House Majority Pac (D) is making a last minute $25K TV ad buy for Montana. Probably just so they don't get accused of not doing more. The DCCC before this had only spent $28K, while outside Republicans have put in more than $4 million.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/18/montana-special-election-dem-super-pac-ads-238576

Just enough money to try to say that they did something with a straight face. Sad!

A $25,000 ad buy will go pretty far in Montana.  It's not Atlanta.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 12:16:17 am
Yeah. I think this is definitely his lack of experience and charisma showing. What would you do if someone asked you out of the blue if you'd done something illegal?

It's not out of the blue, though.  The marijuana story has been circulating for a few days now.  Quist was definitely aware of it.  He reportedly ducked interviews yesterday because reporters wanted to ask him about his marijuana and health history.  

Quist should have been prepared to answer the question - yes, I smoked pot and got cited for it in 1971.  It was the 70s.  Who didn't smoke pot in the 70s?

The problem may be that Quist has been recently smoking pot, which would be more controversial.  That's the next logical question any reporter would ask.  According to the Free Beacon article, Quist admitted to smoking pot on his medical forms in the 90s, too.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CT Gov: Malloy OUT on: May 18, 2017, 11:48:38 pm
Well then, Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim (D) has formed an exploratory committee. It is unclear whether he will be eligible for matching funds, since he is a convicted felon. Let's just say he's a longshot.

From what I've heard, Ganim won't be eligible for matching funds.  


From what I've heard, Ganim might sue about that.

Edit:  Ganim asked the Connecticut Elections Enforcement Commission for a declaratory judgment that he should be able to receive public funds.  The Commision has published a declaratory ruling finding against him - no public funds for criminals.  There is still time for comment, though, and the final judgment won't go in force until mid-June.  

My guess is Ganim will appeal - and hopefully lose.  But with Connecticut's liberal judiciary, you never know.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 18, 2017, 11:28:44 pm

He's ducking the marijuana and health questions, instead of taking them head on.  That doesn't look good.  He intially lied about his citation for smoking pot, then immediately hung up on the reporter.  His spokeswoman had to set the record straight. 

Quist should have taken the Clinton route and just admitted it.  What hippie musician in the 70s didn't smoke pot?
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King's (IA-White Supremacist) name submitted for U.S. ambassador on: May 18, 2017, 09:20:18 pm
Which King is it? I've been trying to find out.

We don't know.  All we know it's not the Congressman or the writer (who hates Trump).

Ambassadorships tend to go to donors - and there are a lot of Steve Kings who have donated to Trump and the RNC in the past.  One is from Janesville, Wisconsin and runs (or at least ran) King Capital LLC.  He might know Reince and/or Ryan,  Another works for Aramco and is from Tennessee.  He gave directly to Trump, but I don't think he even maxed out.  If I had to guess, it's the guy from Wisconsin.

Edited to add: The Steven King from Wisconsin is the Republican Party of Wisconsin's National Committeman.  He's also made sizeable donations to the RNC in the past.  That's the type of person who gets named ambassador to a pleasant but not particularly important country, like the Czech Republic.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King's (IA-White Supremacist) name submitted for U.S. ambassador on: May 18, 2017, 09:06:44 pm
It's apparently someone else named Steve King, according to Twitter.  Do you really think Trump was going to name someone who endorsed Cruz before the Iowa caucuses as an ambassador to any pleasant country?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DNC takes first steps to a 50 state strategy on: May 18, 2017, 08:52:19 pm
Here's a description of what the South Dakota Democratic Party claims they are going to do with their $10,000:

Quote from: KOTA-TV

--Snip--

The party will hire seven part–time employees to work on the reservations. Lowe says last election was the lowest voter turnout on the reservation ever.

--Snip--

"We're going to walk streets,” said Lowe. “We're going to visit with tribal leaders. We're going to be outside of businesses. We're going to do whatever it takes to get our message out."

The money will also be used to create two paid internships for the party; one in Rapid City and one in Sioux Falls.

The internships are supposedly summer internships, according to the AP.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 18, 2017, 08:28:27 pm
Rob Quist @RobQuistforMT

**UPDATE** Saturday's Billings rally with @BernieSanders has moved to MetraPark, due to overwhelming excitement for Rob! #BigSkyBern

The Missoula rally was moved to a bigger venue, too.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 18, 2017, 07:05:14 pm
The candidates Gianforte donated to were "diversity is code for white genocide" nutjobs. I know in some conservative circles that position is no longer taboo but to most normal people it's pretty racist.

Source?  It says that nowhere in the article.   And if your source is the SPLC, as I said, I never take anything they claim at face value.  They're ultra-partisan Democratic actors who are like the boy who cried wolf.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 18, 2017, 06:49:16 pm
Gianforte on donating to suspected white nationalist: 'I was unaware of some of his views'
Missoulian/JAYME FRASER

This story is in the Montana media today.  Apparently, Gianforte donated money to all Republican state house candidates last cycle, including one or two who the Southern Poverty Law Center and liberal Montana bloggers think are white nationalists. 

My views on the SPLC are fairly well known -for reasons better explained by this recent article in the Federalist, the SPLC is a partisan Democratic group masquerading as an anti-hate group whose word about things should not be taken at face value.  They tend to label all conservatives as hate groups.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Time" cover story: Russia bought pro-Trump ads, RNC helped sharing info on: May 18, 2017, 06:39:59 pm
The linked Time Magazine article doesn't mention the RNC, Republicans or Preibus once.  And it doesn't say the Russians bought pro-Trump ads, either, just that they bought ads to target some Twitter users - and it's thought that US intelligence does this, too.  The rest, including the headline here, is all the conjecture of a partisan Democrat who I have never heard of, without any supporting evidence.
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