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October 30, 2014, 08:50:33 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5 on: October 29, 2014, 08:20:12 pm
Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

Where do you see that?  It's not in Stockton's write-up.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5 on: October 29, 2014, 07:18:09 pm
Stockton Poll of NJ-03:
MacArthur (R) 46%
Belgard (D) 41%
Undecided 8%

Oct. 25-28; 617 LV; MoE +/-3.9.

Stockton's last poll in mid-September found the race tied at 42.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What are the best sources to watch on election day? on: October 29, 2014, 06:44:22 pm
I'll be watching CNN, with the occasional check on MSNBC. I'll have the CNN pages for various key races up online, I'll keep an eye on the Atlas Forum (though I'm going to leave the posting of results up to others), and also the pages I'm using for my volunteering for AOSHQDD.

If past elections are any indication, chances are that the Atlas Forum will be down on election night, anyway.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NY-19: TWC News/Siena: Gibson (R) +23 on: October 28, 2014, 07:27:28 pm
Time Warner Cable News/Siena College NY-19 Poll:
Gibson (R) 58%
Eldridge (D) 35%
Don't Know/No Opinion 7%

October 22-24; 727 Likely Voters; MoE +/- 3.7

Astorino leads Cuomo 39-38-14 in the district.  Hawkins is polling best in the NY-19 counties around Albany, where he's at 19%.

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Detroit News/WDIV-TV (by Glengariff Group): Snyder (R) +6 on: October 27, 2014, 07:00:26 pm
That would be +5. And down 3 points from their last poll. The crappy Michigan-centric pollsters may show Snyder winning easily, but PPP shows a tie. Judging from 2012, I know who I believe.

45.2 - 39.5=5.7, which rounds up to 6.
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: GM Independence Amendment on: October 27, 2014, 06:42:52 pm
Nay
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI: Detroit News/WDIV-TV (by Glengariff Group): Snyder (R) +6 on: October 27, 2014, 06:40:52 pm
Detroit News/WDIV-TV Poll (by Glengariff Group):
Snyder (R) 45.2%
Schauer (D) 39.5%
Third Party 5%
Don't Know/Refused 10.3%

October 22-24; 600 Definite Voters; MoE +/- 4.

According to the linked article, the self-identified partisan breakdown is 39% Democrat, 35% Republican, 25% Independent.   Schauer has a 12-point lead among those who have returned absentee ballots.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NH-01: WMUR Granite State Poll by UNH: Shea-Porter (D) +4 on: October 27, 2014, 06:22:01 pm
WMUR Granite State Poll by UNH
Shea-Porter (D) 44%
Guinta (R) 40%
Other 1%
Don't Know/Undecided 15%

October 22-26; 261 LV; MoE +/-6.1%

This looks like a larger release from a statewide poll of 555 LVs that probably polled the Senate and Governor's race, as well as NH-02.  WMUR-TV is probably releasing the polls on its own schedule.  This one was released before tonight's NH-01 candidate debate on WMUR.  There's nothing on UNH's website for the other races yet.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-21: Siena: Stefanik easily flips district on: October 27, 2014, 05:57:58 pm
Cuomo is at 43-39-10 in the district.   The Gubernatorial Green Party candidate (Hawkins) is actually running one point behind the Congressional Green Party candidate (Funicello).  Hawkins does best in the parts of the district near Albany.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: ME-01: Maine Sunday Telegram (by UNH): Pingree (D) +38 on: October 27, 2014, 12:04:39 am
Are the two house polls from the same sample that showed Lepage +10 and Collins +35? Only Toronto would have a more nonsensical voting pattern.

Yes.  They are subsamples of the larger Maine Sunday Telegram/Portland Press Herald poll by UNH. 

BTW - The linked article didn't list the sample size for the ME-01 poll, but if ME-02 was 291 LVs, ME-01 was likely around the same, perhaps with a little bit more LVs, since 291 was less than half of the overall sample.  Unless they weeded out those who said they wouldn't vote in the Congressional races despite voting in the statewide races.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / ME-02: Maine Sunday Telegram (by UNH): Poliquin (R) +1 on: October 26, 2014, 11:11:53 pm
Maine Sunday Telegram (Press-Herald) Poll (by UNH):
Poliquin (R) 41%
Cain (D) 40%
Richardson (I) 8%
Undecided 9%

October 15-21; 291 LV; MoE +/- 5.5.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / ME-01: Maine Sunday Telegram (by UNH): Pingree (D) +38 on: October 26, 2014, 11:09:10 pm
Maine Sunday Telegram (Press-Herald) Poll (by UNH):
Pingree (D) 57%
Misiuk (R)  19%
Murphy (I) 10%
Undecided 13%

October 15-21; ? LV; MoE likely at or above +/-5.5%
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Was Rothenberg right about Rounds? on: October 26, 2014, 10:19:49 pm
I remember Rothenberg took some heat earlier on this site for basically saying the momentum was in Rounds' direction with literally 0 evidence (in terms of polling data). 

Well, now with the YouGov/Marist polls, it appears that Rounds is regaining momentum.  So was Rothenberg psychic or did he just make a lucky guess?

As I said in the original thread, Rothenberg was basing his opinion on Republican internal polling, which showed Rounds up by 10 or so.  He is not psychic and it wasn't a lucky guess.
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2014 General Election - President and Regional Senators on: October 25, 2014, 07:48:44 pm
PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT


[  ] Al Sibboleth of West Virginia and Hashemite of Oklahoma
All Atlasia Progressive Rashtriya Janata Dal - Verenigde Gesuiwerde Atlasianer Volksfront



[2] Lumine von Reuental of Utah and SJoyceFla of North Carolina
Federalist Party - The People's Party



[  ] Marokai Blue of Iowa and Antonio V of Hawaii
Labor Party



[1] Poirot of New York and Shua of Nunavut
Independent - Democratic-Republican Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above



NORTHEAST SENATE


[  ] Bore of Rhode Island
Labor Party



[  ] Lief of Vermont
Vermont National Party



[  ] Matt from VT of Vermont
The People's Party



[1] Write-in: cinyc of New York
Independent



[  ] None of the above
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: October General election on: October 25, 2014, 07:46:14 pm
Official Ballot

Governor
[3] Barnes (Labor - Maine)
[2] SawxDem (The Peoples Party - New Hampshire)
[1] Winfield (Independent - Rhode Island)
[ ] Write-in: ______________
[ ] None of the Above

Northeast Assembly
To fill five seats
[3] Napoleon (Independent - New York)
[2] rpryor03 (Federalist - New Jersey)
[1] Write-in: Thomas from NJ (Federalist - New Jersey)
[4] Write-in: Mr. X (The People's Party - New York)
[5] Write-in: SomebodyWhoExists (Labor - New York)
[  ] None of the Above
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME-Gov, Press Herald: Lepage in the lead on: October 25, 2014, 07:32:55 pm
The link to the page that the poll is supposed to be on leads to an error message. Let's not start getting into making up polls, that's just pathetic.

While I don't yet see the poll on the Portland Press Herald's website, I doubt an MSNBC host is making up polls.  His reputation is at stake.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / HI: Star-Advertiser/HNN Hawaii Poll (by Ward Research): Schatz +51 on: October 24, 2014, 05:46:03 pm
Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now Hawaii Poll
Schatz 71%
Cavasso 20%
Don't Know/Refused 10%

October 11-18; 605 ? voters; MoE +/-4.

Ward Research conducted the Hawaii Poll for Honolulu's largest newspaper and NBC/CBS duopoly.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: HI-01: HNN/Star Advertiser (Probably by Ward Research): Tie on: October 24, 2014, 05:39:20 pm
Crosstabs are now available here.  The poll was of 354 voters with a MoE of +/-5.2.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / HI-01: HNN/Star Advertiser (Probably by Ward Research): Tie on: October 24, 2014, 01:02:14 am
Takai, Djou tied in dead heat in latest poll
HawaiiNewsNow.com

Takai (D) 47%
Djou (R) 47%

The Hawaii News Now article is short on poll particulars and doesn't include a link to crosstabs - yet.  But yesterday's Gubernatorial poll should give us some insight.  I doubt they ran a separate HI-01 poll.

The Gubernatorial poll was taken Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research.  It was of 605 voters (unclear from HNN if registered or likely).  That probably means the HI-01 subsample was of about 300 voters, giving the poll an MoE of around +/- 5.7.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NJ: Stockton: Booker +24 on: October 23, 2014, 06:23:04 pm
Stockton Poll
Booker 57%
Bell 33%
Unsure 5%
Other/None/No Choice 5%

Oct 18-22; 806 LV; MoE +/-3.5

That's a Booker gain of 9 and a Bell loss of 6 points from Stockton's October 9 poll.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen, Civitas: Tillis in the lead on: October 23, 2014, 01:58:09 pm
This is a registered voters poll. The election is in less than two weeks. LOL

It's not a true registered voter poll.  Respondents had to have voted in 2010 or 2012 or be newly registered.  That's more like some pollsters' LV screen than a pure registered voter screen.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 22, 2014, 11:02:40 pm
In a first, Republicans claim early vote lead in Iowa
Washington Examiner/David M. Drucker
Quote
In the crucial battle for early voters in Iowa that could foreshadow which party has the edge in the midterm elections, Republicans led Democrats for the first time Wednesday, GOP officials announced.

The Republicans closed the day with an advantage of 305 of combined early votes and absentee ballot returns, giving them an advantage they have never held in any Iowa campaign. An overhauled ground game that prioritizes early voting is a key part of the Republican strategy to boost state Sen. Joni Ernst over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in their close race for an open Senate seat.

Republicans also believe they are winning the battle to expand the electorate, something the Democrats have focused on to diminish the GOPís historic turnout advantage in midterm elections. On Monday, among the best days for absentee-ballot requests for the Democrats, only 13 percent came from voters who did not participate in the 2010 elections; compared to 28 percent of GOP absentee requests who didnít vote four years ago.

--Snip--
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rothenberg: Rounds is winning comfortably again, because reasons on: October 22, 2014, 05:23:39 pm
Republican internals are showing Rounds up by as much as 10 points.  That's what Rothenberg is talking cryptically about.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/republicans-say-south-dakota-senate-race-turning-around/article/2554907
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sen. Angus King considering switching parties after midterms? on: October 21, 2014, 01:20:47 pm
If it's GOP 49, Dem 50, Angus will have everyone's balls in a meat grinder.

No he wouldn't.  Even if King caucuses with the GOP, Joe Biden would just be permanently camped in D.C. to break ties.  It's GOP 50, Dem 49 where King's votes matter most.  Caucusing with the GOP would get them to 51.  Caucusing with Democrats would cause Biden to break ties.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 12:25:23 pm
I love that Udall is up by ten among those who have already voted, even though the GOP has a 15-point lead in early voting as of yesterday.


The sample size for that subsample is very small.   It is 1/4 of the sample, which is probably only around 100 voters.  That gives a margin of error around +/- 10.
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