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September 21, 2017, 09:50:34 pm
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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: outskirts vs. suburbs vs. exurbs on: September 20, 2017, 10:15:59 pm
Great question.

I don't think there's any agreed upon definition of suburb or exurb, and the boundary between then is up for discussion. Sometimes, there's a parkland or greenbelt buffer between the two, like in the northern suburbs of NYC - I'd characterize Rockland, Westchester and maybe Putnam county towns as suburbs, and Orange and Dutchess county towns as exurbs, but in other places of the NYC metro where there is no clear demarcation, it becomes harder. For example, where do the exurbs start on Long Island? Probably somewhere in Suffolk County, perhaps where the main lines of the LIRR stop - but it's not clear.

Exurbs do tend to be more recent-growth areas, but not all recent-growth areas are exurbs, particularly in smaller metros.

As someone who has lived in Nassau County my whole life other than college, I'm tempted to say the Sagitkos Parkway is the dividing line on Long Island, but Route 112 is probably more realistic and an argument could be made for as far east as the William Floyd Pkwy.

The Sagitkos Parkway is a pretty decent dividing line - the Northern and Southern State Parkways end shortly after there (I guess the SSP technically becomes the Heckscher Parwkay to the east of it), and at least the Babylon Branch of the LIRR ends within. Route 112 would also take into account the main terminus of the Ronkonkoma Branch of the LIRR. The William Floyd Parkway is pretty far out, on the other side of a little bit of the pine barrens - and out of the urbanized area, at least on my map. I think the argument for that is tougher.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: outskirts vs. suburbs vs. exurbs on: September 20, 2017, 06:29:29 pm
Great question.

I don't think there's any agreed upon definition of suburb or exurb, and the boundary between then is up for discussion. Sometimes, there's a parkland or greenbelt buffer between the two, like in the northern suburbs of NYC - I'd characterize Rockland, Westchester and maybe Putnam county towns as suburbs, and Orange and Dutchess county towns as exurbs, but in other places of the NYC metro where there is no clear demarcation, it becomes harder. For example, where do the exurbs start on Long Island? Probably somewhere in Suffolk County, perhaps where the main lines of the LIRR stop - but it's not clear.

Exurbs do tend to be more recent-growth areas, but not all recent-growth areas are exurbs, particularly in smaller metros.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump on: September 14, 2017, 08:24:30 pm
Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.

Excellent work and jives with RI's precinct map and raw county level precinct returns that I pulled.... Smiley

Looks like Clinton won Charleston by roughly 55-45 of the two Party Vote Share... Curious about 3rd Party votes in the City....

Johnson 765, Stein 282, Castle 58 - if my calculations are correct.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump on: September 13, 2017, 05:24:37 pm
Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: September 08, 2017, 10:31:22 pm
The New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA has inconsistently grown, except in the 1980s (oil?) and 2000s (Hurricane Katrina). The largest numerical growth was in the 1960s:



At the metro level, the outlying metro/micro areas still grew in the 2000s, perhaps due to outmigration from the core New Orleans Metro Area post-Katrina:



The decadal parish map shows not all New Orleans Metro parishes grew consistently. For example, Orleans Parish declined from the 60s-Katrina. It has rebounded since:



The 1980-2016 yearly parish percentage population growth map gif pinpoints this decline pattern in Orleans Parish was through about 1999. Orleans Parish grew a little in the 2000s before Katrina, and has grown since:



Unfortunately, the 2000-16 town map gif doesn't add much info. Like much of the south and west, the New Orleans CSA doesn't have many incorporated towns, and Census generally only provides yearly population estimates for incorporated areas:



I didn't make any static maps for the New Orleans CSA. There's too little interest in those maps or this thread to warrant it.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Poll for my fellow Republicans regarding DACA on: September 05, 2017, 11:01:32 pm
The overturn of DACA, to me, has to be one of the very meanest and most inhuman acts ever perpetrated by a U.S. President, separating adult children from parents and family.

My fellow Republicans, do you still consider yourself to be a Republican after this?  

Your statement doesn't even make sense. Nobody is being separated from anybody simply because of the not-so-immediate repeal of DACA - an overreaching Obama executive action that was blatently unconstitutional. Trump really had no choice but to repeal it, as he was being sued by many states Attorney Generals, and would have lost in court. Don't believe me that it was unconstitutional?  Well, one of Obama's lawyers who worked on DACA has admitted as much.

The DACA repeal is really a bargaining chip that, if Trump is smart, will be used to get things like funding for the border wall and mandatory use of e-Verify. Trump sunsetted DACA after 6 months, instead of immediately, for a reason.

And even if Congress doesn't pass DACA-lite (which it ultimately will), it doesn't mean that "dreamers" will automatically be deported without their parents anyway. First, the government would have to find them and make it a priority to deport them over the convicted criminals that Trump is currently focussing on deporting. Plus, if in the country, "dreamers'" parents are likely illegal aliens, and are subject to deportation, too. So the family doesn't have to be broken up - if deportation is a viable option, they can all be deported together. American citizen children have the right to remain in the country, but nothing is stopping illegal immigrant parents from taking them back to their home country if deported, or placing them with relatives legally living in the country.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: HI-GOV: Hanabusa Announces on: September 02, 2017, 02:57:43 pm
She just can't stay in the House, can she?
She wants (and probably deserves) a promotion.

Why would anyone want to spend all their time commuting between Hawaii and Washington, DC, when you could be living in Hawaii?
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 30, 2017, 06:34:29 pm
Is there actually an Upper Midwest, or is a transmorgrification of the Upper Mississippi?

There are companies and media outlets that describe themselves as serving the Upper Midwest, and though I've heard that label most often in the region of the Upper Mississippi, I've never heard the description Upper Mississippi applied that way. I've only heard Upper Mississippi applied in the geological sense or to describe pre-Columbian cultures.
Have you ever heard the term Lower Midwest? Would someone from Kansas or
Indiana say they were from the Lower Midwest?

The North American Baptist Conference has a Upper Mississippi region (MN, IA, WI, IL).

I'm not saying that the area of the Upper Mississippi became the Upper Midwest, but the concept of "upper-ness" may have come from the river divisions, and of course there is clear distinction between Upper Mississippi and Lower Mississippi, except perhaps for the bit between St. Louis and Cairo.

538 ran a survey that agreed with my definition. Most Midwesterners agreed that the Midwest included their State and its neighbors.

Only about 10% of respondents in that 538 poll agreed that Colorado was Midwestern, as you have argued.  Yet a majority of respondents put Michigan and Ohio in the Midwest, the latter of which, at least, you've argued shouldn't be considered Midwestern. The greatest percentage of respondents agreed Illinois should be included, which to me is a no-brainer, as Chicago is the largest Midwestern city.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is Austin so liberal? on: August 29, 2017, 11:13:03 pm
Houston and San Antonio have annexed quite a bit of territory, which includes conservative suburbs.

Austin has annexed quite a bit of territory, too. I don't think annexations have anything to do with it.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 29, 2017, 08:47:10 pm
I grew up in Denver which is clearly a Midwestern city with a large share of its population from the classic Midwest states of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and some Illinois. It has nothing in common with Cleveland. If any areas east of the Mississippi are Midwestern, it would be areas along and south of the National Road.

Well, the National Road went through the current capitals of Ohio and Indiana, so...
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which states are Upper Midwest? on: August 29, 2017, 07:47:49 pm
The Midwest starts in Ohio and goes westward to both Dakotas. Why? Well, the original west has always meant the Northwest Territory, and when areas to the west were added to the U.S., it became the Midwest.

Why do I include the Dakotas but not Pennsylvania? The bulk of the population in the Dakotas is east of the Missouri River, and East River has more in common with Minnesota than Montana. Why isn't Pennsylvania or New York included in the Midwest? Because the bulk of people in those states don't live in the rust belt cities like Buffalo and Pittsburgh, and those states were not part of the original Northwest Territory. States and state lines are not arbitrary things that ought to be cast aside when determining which states are Midwest.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2017 House Election on: August 20, 2017, 11:10:11 pm
REPUBLIC OF ATLASIA - In Dave We Trust
Official Ballot



HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - NINE SEATS



[4] fhtagn of Maine
Federalist Party



[5] Haslam2020 of Tennessee
Federalist Party



[  ] Governor Illiniwek of Illinois
Labor Party



[  ] JGibson of Illinois
Labor Party



[  ] LongLiveRock of Colorado
Labor Party



[3] North Carolina Yankee of North Carolina
Federalist Party



[  ] Peebs of North Carolina
Labor Party



[2] Potus2036 of West Virginia
Federalist Party



[1] RFayette of California
Atlas Conservative Party



[  ] vivaportugalhabs of Kansas
Labor Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Lincoln Voting Booth: August 2017 on: August 18, 2017, 06:01:00 pm
LINCOLN REGION
AUGUST 2017 ELECTIONS
OFFICIAL BALLOT



FOR SENATE (CLASS II)
ONE (1) to be elected

[2] AScott of New Hampshire
Labor

[1] LouisvilleThunder of Indiana
Federalist

[ ] Write-in:


FOR ASSEMBLY
THREE (3) to be elected

[4] bruhgmger2 of New York
Labor

[2] kyc0705 of New Jersey
Independent

[3] lok1999 of Indiana
Labor

[1] ReaganClinton20XX of Connecticut
Federalist

[ ] Write-in:

14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: August 15, 2017, 10:37:03 am
The Denver-Aurora CSA has grown every decade since 1900. However, the growth has been a bit erratic, with fast (gold rush?) growth in the 1900s, followed by slower growth until after WWII, and a ramp up afterwards, except in the 1980s:



All of the Denver CSA's constituent metros have always grown, except Greeley during the 1930s:



At the county level, Denver proper lost population during the 1970s and 1980s. Other counties, largely on the periphery, have lost population in other decades. Broomfield was not a separate county until 2001:



The 1980-2016 county estimate percentage population change map gif confirms that the Denver losses in the 1980s spilled over to the early 1990s. Both Denver and Jefferson County lost a little population in the early 2000s, too:



And the 2000-16 town map confirms that the minor Jefferson County losses were not pinpointed to any one jurisdiction:



The static county maps show explosive growth in some counties, particularly south of Denver. Here is the 1980-2016 county map:



And the 2000-16 static map shows the fast growth in Douglas County has continued in more recent decades:



The 2010-16 static town map shows growth pretty much throughout the CSA:

15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: If your state lost a district, who would you want combined? on: August 14, 2017, 08:27:57 pm
It will never happen, since the bulk of the population loss is upstate, but seeing Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler put in the same Manhattan-only district would be ideal.  That could possibly open up a South Brooklyn/Queens district that could elect a Republican.  It would also be good to see Manhattan down to being represented by the 3 Congressmen its numbers deserve, instead of 4.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538: The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats on: August 09, 2017, 07:38:36 pm
I'm not a proponent of eliminating partisan gerrymandering, though, as it is an American tradition as old as Elbridge Gerry.

You're for politicians basically stealing seats for their party just because it is a ...tradition?

...seriously?

Sorry. I don't find something that has been going on since the founding of the republic as offensive as most here seem to do. Quite frankly, a lot of the supposedly neutral redistricting criteria proposed by others are just as likely to lead to partisan Gerrymandering. Forcing "competitive" districts on states where one party's population is concentrated in a particular city or region is a dumb idea that destroys communities of interest, overrepresents the minority party and overrepresents that city or region. Supposedly "neutral" commissions almost always aren't. And court-drawn maps often take on the biases of the appointed special master.

So, no, there is no such thing as "neutral" redistricting. And I don't view partisan redistricting as "stealing" seats for any one party - what Republicans do in Ohio or Michigan can easily be offset by what Democrats do in Illinois or California, anyway.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538: The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats on: August 09, 2017, 09:19:59 am
As usual, those who harp on supposed Republican gerrymanders conveniently forget about Democratic gerrymanders in states like Maryland and Illinois.  There is a diary on RRH which claims that after taking Democratic gerrymanders into account, Republicans would actually gain a few seats under non-partisan maps due to self-packing.  I'm not sure I believe it, but it is intellectually dishonest to ignore Maryland and Illinois, plus the Mathismander in Arizona, if you're truly concerned about partisan gerrymandering.

I'm not a proponent of eliminating partisan gerrymandering, though, as it is an American tradition as old as Elbridge Gerry.


Recent non-partisan 3-part test from Princeton concluded that both Illinois and Maryland were not gerrymanders.

Here is the article: Princeton Gerrymandering Projection

According to their website, two of the three MD tests were skipped for some reason, and the Monte Carlo test showed that in most scenarios, Republicans would end up with another seat in MD.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538: The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats on: August 09, 2017, 07:02:18 am
As usual, those who harp on supposed Republican gerrymanders conveniently forget about Democratic gerrymanders in states like Maryland and Illinois.  There is a diary on RRH which claims that after taking Democratic gerrymanders into account, Republicans would actually gain a few seats under non-partisan maps due to self-packing.  I'm not sure I believe it, but it is intellectually dishonest to ignore Maryland and Illinois, plus the Mathismander in Arizona, if you're truly concerned about partisan gerrymandering.

I'm not a proponent of eliminating partisan gerrymandering, though, as it is an American tradition as old as Elbridge Gerry.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 29, 2017, 09:02:11 pm
The Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA hasn't grown much since the 1960s. It had one slight up decade in the 1990s, but has declined since:



Much of this loss is due to the decline of the core Cleveland-Elyria metro. The Akron & Canton-Massilion metros were also down some of those decades:



Cleveland's Cuyahoga County has declined every decade since the 1960s. It usually had the fastest decline of any CSA county, too:



The 1980-2016 yearly county estimate percentage population change map shows Cuyahoga County declining every year except a few in the early 1990s and, due to a better 2000 census result than 1999 estimated, 1999-2000:


The 2000-16 town maps show the cities of Cleveland, Akron & Canton losing population every year. Some suburbs outside Cuyahoga still grow, though, especially in Medina County:



The 1980-2016 static county percentage population growth map shows that Medina County was the fastest-growing over that period.  Other Cuyahoga-bordering suburban counties also grew:



The 2000-16 county map shows that the Medina County trend has continued recently:



The 2010-16 static town map shows that very few Cuyahoga County suburbs have grown this decade. The Medina County gains are pretty much county-wide.  Other suburban counties tended to have growth concentrated right next to the Cuyahoga County border.

20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 27, 2017, 10:54:08 pm
The Minneapolis-St. Paul CSA grew at about a 100,00 persons per decade clip pre-WWII. Post-war, that usually ramped up to 300K-400K, except in the 1970s, when growth slowed to around 200K:




The core Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington Metro has never lost population in any decade since 1900. Nor has St. Cloud. The 3 outlying micropoltian areas have lost population at times:



The 1900-2016 decadal county population change map shows core Hennepin (Minneapolis) and Ramsey (St. Paul) Counties losing population in the 1970s. Ramsey also lost pop in the 2000s:



The 1980-2016 yearly county percentage population change map map shows suburban/exurban counties growing at a faster percentage pace than core Hennepin & Ramsey most years, except roughly 2010-13:



The 2000-16 town map shows the twin cities of Minneapolis & St. Paul losing population from roughly 2001-2006. Generally, only the suburban/exurban county towns bordering the core 2 counties seem to have continued to grow during the great recession. Some exurbs seem to have lost population during that time:



The 1980-2016 static county percentage change map shows the collar counties growing fastest during that period:



The 2000-16 static county map shows somewhat of a continuation of this pattern in some counties, particularly Scott:



The 2010-16 static town map shows some Hennepin County and border towns growing faster than the rest:

21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 26, 2017, 12:16:36 am
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale was the 14th largest Primary Statistical Area in 2014, according to Wikipedia. It is the first PSA that is only a Metropolitan Area on the list. The Phoenix metro has grown every decade since 1900, adding over 1,000,000 people in the 1990s and almost as many in the 2000s:



The Phoenix metro only has two counties, Maricopa and Pinal. Both have grown every decade since 1900:



The 1980-2016 yearly percentage population change county map gif is equally boring. The only county that ever lost population was Pinal in 2010-11:



The 2000-16 town percentage population change map gif shows the city of Phoenix losing population in 2008-10, and that the Pinal County loss was pretty much county-wide:



Unsurprisingly, the 1980-2016 county percentage population change was off the chart:



The 2000-16 static county map shows that Pinal County grew faster than Maricopa County from 2000-16 in percentage terms, but Maricopa County is much larger:



The 2010-16 static town map shows a growing picture, with Buckeye and Pinal County leading the area in percentage population growth:

22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 25, 2017, 11:17:30 pm
The Seattle-Tacoma CSA has grown each decade since the 1900. It had a big growth spurt in the 1900s and ramped after WWII:



Its component metros and micros have usually grown, too. The core Seattle-Tacoma-Bellvue Metropolitan Area has grown every decade since 1900:



King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties have grown each decade. Only the islands and far fringes have had loss decades:



1980-2016 yearly county map shows Snohomish County growing at a higher percentage rate than King - until recently. Tacoma's Pierce County likely had a slight down year in 2009:



The 2000-16 town map shows Seattle losing population in 2001-03. Now, it grows as fast as unincorporated Snohomish. Tacoma lost population in 2002-04 & 2009:



The 1980-2016 static county percentage population change map shows growth throughout, especially in suburban Snohomish County and Olympia's Thurston County:



The 2000-16 static county map shows the same growth pattern, albeit at a slower rate:



And the 2010-16 static town map shows that Seattle is one of the fastest-growing towns in King County:

23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 25, 2017, 01:38:35 pm
With the Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor CSA at CBSA #12, we finally get our first look at the population change patterns in a rust belt city - and it's not pretty. The Detroit CSA has seen better days. It was Atlanta or Dallas-like during the 1920s - adding over 1,000,000 people that decade at a time when the US population was much lower than it is today. The CSA has largely been in decline since the 1970s, with a brief respite during the 1990s:



The Ann Arbor Metro has helped prop up the Detroit CSA's numbers a little bit - it is still growing.  But the core Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metro and the Flint metro have generally been losing population or stagnant recently:



At the decadal county level, Detroit's Wayne County has lost population every decade since the 1970s.  Detroit-suburban Oakland and Macomb have gained population during that period, albeit sometimes anemically. Exurban Livingston County has grown fastest, percentage wise:



The yearly 1980-2016 county percentage population change map shows Wayne County losing population practically every year, except during the early-to-mid 1990s. Even Oakland County has lost population some years. Even exurban Livingston County lost a little bit of population in the late 2000s:



The 2000-16 town percentage population change map shows just how badly Detroit and most of its inner suburbs have lost population recently, while Detroit's outer suburbs generally gained population:



The 1980-2016 county static map shows Wayne 20-30% of its population, suburban Oakland and Macomb up, and Livingston growing at an 80% clip over that period:



The 2000-2016 county static map shows basically the same growth pattern, with Macomb growing a little more than Oakland:



And the 2010-2016 static town map shows most of Wayne County losing population, except a few towns at the outer fringes of the county:

24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 25, 2017, 09:21:29 am
Why is Ulster County PA part of the New York CSA?

Are there people in Ulster County who actually commute to NYC or spend a decent amount of time there?

Jimrtex can probably give you the technical answer, but as I understand it, CSA borders are based on commuting patterns.  They change every 5 years, and were last changed for 2012.  We're due for a 2017 update soon, probably in January 2018.

Enough Ulster County residents probably commute to Dutchess County (in the NY MSA) or White Plains, Westchester County to justify CSA status, but not Metro status.  And there might even be a few Ulster County residents who commute all the way to NYC on Metro North from Poughkeepsie, which is right across the Mid-Hudson Bridge from southern Ulster.  Ulster is in the NYC TV market, so including it in the CSA isn't terribly strange to me, anyway.

The stranger county to me is Carbon, PA, which is in the Allentown-Bethlehem Metro being in the CSA.  I doubt many people commute to NYC from there.  But enough probably commute to Lehigh County, PA to put it in the Allentown Metro, and enough Lehigh/Northampton County, PA residents probably commute to NYC or its NJ suburbs to put the Allentown MSA in the CSA.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Micropolitan Statistical Areas are collectively known as Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) - the distinction between Metropolitan and Micropolitan is population, their delineation is the same.

A CBSA is comprised of Central Counties and Outlying Counties. Counties qualify to be a central county by having half the population in urban areas, or containing 5000 persons of an urban area of at least 10,000. Urban areas are blobs of people (continuous areas of somewhat dense population). Urban Areas are either Urbanized Areas or Urban Clusters, again distinguished by their size, with Urbanized Areas having more than 50,000 people. Urban Clusters have to have 2500 persons to exist, but need 10,000 to form the basis for a Micropolitan Statistical Area.

Urbanized Areas, but not Urban Clusters, are grandfathered from one census to the next. If an Urbanized Area and Urban Cluster grow together, the Urban Cluster is absorbed. But when Urbanized Areas grow together, their identity is kept separate, typically at or near county lines.

The NYC Urbanized Area does quite reach the Delaware River. But it comprises 25% of Sussex, 40% of Hunterdon, 19% of Warren, and 8% of Mercer. Since it is the largest urban area in Sussex and Hunterdon counties, those two counties are Central Counties of the NYC Metropolitan Statistical Area.

More of Warren (29%) is in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Urbanized Area, so it is a Central County of the Allentown Urbanized Area. Easton is traditionally associated with Allentown so there is a division in the county. The NYC Urbanized Area could conceivably grow such that it was the dominant Urban Area, and Warren would flip between MSA's.

Because of Trenton, most of Mercer is in the Trenton Urbanized Area, and blocks the NYC Metropolitan Area.

Pike County, PA is potentially the Port Jervis Micropolitan Statistical Area, since the Port Jervis Urban Cluster has 10,000 persons, including 5000 in Pike County.

To the north, the Bridgeport-Stamford Urbanized Area keeps the NYC UA out of Fairfield County, and the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh Urbanized Area keeps the NYC UA out of Dutchess and pretty much out of Orange. But the NYC Urbanized Area does extend into Putnam County, so that Westchester, Putnam, and Rockland are central counties to the north.

The Poughkeepsie-Newburgh UA does extend a bit into Ulster to reach New Paltz, but the dominant Urbanized Area in Ulster is Kingston UA.

So in New York, you have the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh proto-MSA with Dutchess and Orange serving as central counties.

Outlying counties are determined on the basis of commuter flows. If 25% of workers who live in a county work in the central counties of CBSA, the county is an outlying county. But a central county of one CBSA may not be an outlying county of another CBSA.

But once the initial CBSA are delineated, then one CBSA may be treated as outlying to another. This appears what pulls Orange+Dutchess as a unit into the NYC Metro area. Commuting into NYC, Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam, plus most of Northern New Jersey counts as commuting into the central counties.

The number one destination for Dutchess is Westchester (15.2K), Putnam is next at 5.5K, followed by New York (Manhattan) 5.3, Orange 5.1, and Ulster 4.3. For Orange it is New York 9.9K, Rockland 9.2, Bergen, NJ 7.1K, Westchester 6.9K, Dutchess 5.1K, and Bronx 4.4K. It appears that Orange is dragging Dutchess into the NYC MSA (but I can only account for 24.5% of Orange+Dutchess workers working in the NYC MSA).

After the CBSA's are delineated, they may be agglomerated into a CSA, with each CBSA being treated as a unit. While for a CBSA, commuting must be into a Central County, for a CSA it just has to be between CBSA. In addition the link can be weaker. That is what brings the Ulster (Kingston MSA) into the CSA. Ulster has 9K commuting into both Ulster and Orange counties, compared to about 5K for the entire rest of the NYC MSA.

Were Ulster not itself a Central County it would have been part of the proto-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown (PNM) CBSA. I'm not sure why NYC and PNM are merged, rather than PNM and Kingston.

It may be possible for the merging of CBSA into CSA to be chained (e.g. Bridgeport-Stamford being pulled in, then brought New Haven, and Waterbury-Danbury in.

Carbon being part of the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton MSA is what bring it into the NYC CSA. Warren being part of the Allentown MSA and also including about 20% of its population in the NYC UA, likely pulls in Allentown. The commuting only has to anywhere into Northern New Jersey or southern New York, not into Manhattan or even Newark. It could even be into Sussex County.

A CSA might be considered to be more like a group of related CBSA, which is hard to see when comparing NYC and any CBSA, let alone Kingston. But the relationship is somewhat easier to understand with NYC and the Connecticut MSAs, or Allentown and Trenton and NYC.

Even easier to comprehend is Washington and Baltimore being in a CSA.

Thanks for the explanation.  I could have sworn there used to be a separate Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown metro area in recent years. I was actually surprised to see Dutchess and Orange as part of the New York Metro Area again.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 24, 2017, 10:25:49 pm
The Atlanta--Athens-Clarke County--Sandy Springs CSA generally grew by about 100,000 people per decade before WWII.  It slowly ramped up after WWII to gain more than 1,000,000 people per decade in the 1990s and beyond:



Note that the 1900-40s numbers might not be accurate due to county boundary changes. For example, Campbell and Milton Counties were absorbed by Fulton County in the 1930s.  That's why Fulton County has its strange, long shape.

At the metro level, the core Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Metro has always grown. The outlying metropolitan and micropolitan areas have been mixed.  The Athens-Clarke County Metro lost population in the 1920s:



The decadal county map shows that Fulton County lost population the 1970s. Atlanta's suburban and exurban counties started to grow after WWII, and really ramped up in the 1960s:



The 1980-2016 yearly county percentage population change map shows that core Fulton and DeKalb Counties lost population in the early 2000s. It has since recovered. Growth in some exurban counties cooled down after the great recession, but is picking up again, especially on the northern fringes of the metro:



The 2000-16 town percentage population change map shows that Fulton's early 2000s population loss was due at least in part due to the city of Atlanta losing population:



The static county maps confirm Atlanta's suburban/exurban growth.  For example, practically every suburban/exurban county on the 1980-2016 map is dark, dark red, particularly north of Fulton:



Even most counties in the 2000-16 county growth map are deep red:



The 2010-16 town percentage population change map shows which towns and county remainders have grown fastest since 2010:

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