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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-18: Siena: Maloney (D) winning by 8 on: September 18, 2014, 08:50:54 pm
Cuomo-Astorino is actually closer than the House race.  It's 45-40-7 Cuomo.  The Green candidate is doing slightly better here than in NY-4, but not by much.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-04: Siena: Rice (D) easily winning on: September 18, 2014, 08:47:26 pm
Cuomo is at 58-31-5 in the district.  Again, the Green Party candidate isn't doing as well on Long Island as he is Upstate.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Anti-Semitic candidate in Kentucky on: September 18, 2014, 05:13:12 pm
Yeah, anyone can run for office, or run in a primary, if they have the filing fee. It's not an issue until the party gives them any sort of approval.

That being said, he should of course be loudly condemned just for being a revolting bigot.

Other candidates are probably better off ignoring him so that he doesn't get an outsized platform for his bigoted message.  Everyone knows it's repulsive.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Markey with Strong Lead in Massachusetts on: September 18, 2014, 04:59:35 pm
So much for another Republican pickup.

Who said this was going to be a Republican pickup?
A lot blue avatars are screaming "wave" and in a wave, this seat would be in contention.


Massachusetts tipping to the Republicans in a wave year?  It's a reliably Democratic state with no Republican representatives or Senators.  Who said Massachusetts would be one to tip over in a wave?  Nobody.  Perhaps it could tip, like any state, wave or no wave, if a terrible candidate like Coakley were the nominee and Republicans nominated a stellar candidate, but Coakley's running for governor, not Senate.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-01: Siena: Rep. Bishop (D) up 10 on: September 17, 2014, 08:27:43 pm
I don't like this poll.  It doesn't show a Republican ahead so it is junk.  24% of Republicans are voting for Bishop?  This isn't California, it's Suffolk County, New York.  That's not going to happen.   Plus, Newsday is a biased liberal source that can't be trusted.   And Siena is a horrible poster.  /sarcasm

More seriously, Cuomo is up 52-32-6 with 9% undecided.  There's not much love for the Green candidate in Eastern Suffolk County, either, compared to Upstate.

Crosstabs here.

Last time I checked Bishop didn't threaten to a throw a reporter off a balcony and then get indicted.

If that happened, yes, it would be absolutely silly to show 24% of Republicans backing him.

see the /sarcasm.

Well, IceSpear is right that my sarcasm was partially directed at his comment in the NY-11 thread, but more generally directed toward those who try to unskew polls just because they don't like the result.  Unskewing polls because of supposedly erroneous crosstabs didn't work in 2012.  It's not going to work in 2014, either.

I take polls at face value for what they are - a snapshot of the race at a particular time by a particular pollster using that pollster's particular methodology.  Some pollsters might be better than others, but trends in a particular pollster's polls at least tells us something about the general direction of the race, even if they're the worst pollster in the world.  I'm not doubting a poll's veracity because of the TV network or newspaper that sponsored it.  And I don't treat any pollster as the gold standard.  Doing well in 2012 doesn't mean their polls will do well in 2014.  Mason-Dixon fell from grace last cycle.  Who's to say PPP won't tank this cycle or Rasmussen won't improve?  We won't know until election day.

Internals and internals done for an interest group are generally suspect, though, because they often skew their release to get the result they want.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-01: Siena: Rep. Bishop (D) up 10 on: September 17, 2014, 06:16:19 pm
I don't like this poll.  It doesn't show a Republican ahead so it is junk.  24% of Republicans are voting for Bishop?  This isn't California, it's Suffolk County, New York.  That's not going to happen.   Plus, Newsday is a biased liberal source that can't be trusted.   And Siena is a horrible poster.  /sarcasm

More seriously, Cuomo is up 52-32-6 with 9% undecided.  There's not much love for the Green candidate in Eastern Suffolk County, either, compared to Upstate.

Crosstabs here.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 17, 2014, 06:08:59 pm
This poll has 27% of Democrats voting for Grimm...LOL

And just looked at the crosstabs. It has 41% of Democrats backing the repeal of Obamacare. HAHAHAHAHA. Staten Island might be eccentric, but it's not West Virginia. This poll is pure horse manure.

Staten Island has plenty of DINOs who only register as Democrats to have a voice in citywide and statewide primary elections and older people who simply haven't changed their registration as Democrats strayed farther and farther to the left.  It is not the Upper West Side.

And, as I said, BOTH candidates' internal polling agrees with this poll.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 07:54:33 pm
Politico isn't a reliable news source.

Yeah, I'm sure Politico is lying about internals.  Because the candidates couldn't raise a stink about bad reporting and just release their internals to prove them wrong.  They'd just let a false narrative lie.

What is a reliable news source to you?  Daily Kos?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 07:03:43 pm
This is Siena we're talking about. Their congressional polls have an awful track record.

According to Politico, internal polling from both sides says the same thing - Grimm has a slight lead.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 06:47:07 pm
Dear god. How is Recchia blowing this so badly? this should be an easy seat. I'd either be a Recchia or Bardel voter.

He's not a good fit for the district.  Recchia is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, and is too liberal for the district.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 06:09:59 pm
The gubernatorial race is 60-28-3 Cuomo/Astorino/Hawkins.  There is little appetite for the Green party candidate in most of NYC.

Crosstabs here.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 06:05:50 pm
NY 1 News/Capital New York/Siena College Research Institute poll of NY-11

Grimm (R) 44%
Recchia (D) 40%
Bardel (G) 4%
Undecided 12%

September 9-14, 2014; 585 likely voters; MoE +/- 4%
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 16, 2014, 06:03:01 pm
Siena's poll is 44-40 Grimm with 4% for the Green Party candidate and 12% undecided.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 16, 2014, 02:20:59 pm
What makes this cycle so different for the Staten Island district?

Grimm has been indicted for dealings with the restaurant he owned before entering Congress and threatened to throw a reporter off a balcony for asking him about it.

What's unclear is whether any of this really matters in a New York City election.  Two New York State Senators under indictment recently won their primaries.  Charlie Rangel keeps winning reelection despite his ethics difficulties.  And you can't assume all or even most voters know about the indictments in such an expensive media market.  We should see a Siena poll at 7PM tonight which will help answer these questions.

Siena is also polling NY-1, which will be released tomorrow.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: HI-Rassy: Schatz (D) with mega-lead on: September 15, 2014, 01:13:19 pm
I for one am happy that Rasmussen is "wasting" money polling safe states.  More polling is better than none.   Plus, Hawaii isn't a true safe state anyway, since the governor's race could be relatively close.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538 on Alaska polling on: September 14, 2014, 08:34:06 pm
Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.

I think he's talking about the within Alaska races where, say, a Republican incumbent was running.

The Presidential races also show a real polling bias toward the Democratic candidate.  It's not just incumbency.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538 on Alaska polling on: September 14, 2014, 08:31:02 pm
Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 12, 2014, 06:23:43 pm
We're supposed to get a Siena College poll of the race in the near future.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-21 (Siena)- Stefanik holds double digit lead on: September 12, 2014, 01:08:52 am
I want to know what Hawkins numbers in the governor's race are here.

There's a link to the Excel file with all the crosstabs in the article.  The Gubernatorial race was 44-35-12, Cuomo/Astorino/Hawkins, with Hawkins doing best in the counties near Albany (17%) and worse in the North Country.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 11, 2014, 10:41:02 pm
Alright, which one of you goofballs said Grimm?

I did.  I honestly don't have a good read on the race.  Why?  For one, I haven't seen any recent poling.  Plus, primary voters just voted to put two indicted New York State Senators on the November ballot.  One will certainly win, given the makeup of his district.  There seems to be some tolerance for alleged criminality among politicians in New York.  An indictment isn't necessarily enough to disqualify someone from getting elected in New York - if voters are even aware of it.  It's an expensive media market.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-19 (Time Warner Cable/Siena) - Gibson (R) +24 on: September 11, 2014, 08:14:19 pm
Why do people keep polling this race? It's about as useful as polling AL-06 or PA-01. There are plenty of other races that would be interesting to see.

Why do people complain when they get more poll data?  Time Warner Cable has a cable news channel in NY-19 that needs content.  So, they polled the race in NY-19, in conjunction with a college from New York State that has a polling institute that usually polls races in New York State.  Why is that so difficult to understand?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NY-19 (Time Warner Cable/Siena) - Gibson (R) +24 on: September 11, 2014, 07:18:20 pm
Time Warner Cable/Siena Poll
Gibson (R) 57%
Eldridge (D) - 33%
Don't Know/No Opinion - 10%

Sept. 4-Sept. 7 and Sept. 9; 609 LV; MoE +/-4%
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Cuomo get a higher % of the vote in the general election... on: September 11, 2014, 06:13:52 pm
Probably - but not by much.  Astorino will be lucky to do as well as Paladino.  He simply cannot replicate Paladino's results in Western New York.  He'd need to run significantly better than Paladino in the NYC suburbs and the rest of Upstate to compensate.  Barring a Cuomo indictment, that's probably not going to happen.

Hawkins will probably do better than his 2010 performance, where he was barely over the 50,000 vote threshold to give the Green Party permanent ballot access. If he quadruples his 2010 performance and gets 5% and other minor party candidates get 2%, Astorino would have to get about 31% to push Cuomo below his primary percentage.  That's 2 points worse than Paladino's showing in 2010 - which is possible with lesser Western New York support.  So it should be close.

By the way, the primary numbers aren't final.  It's very likely that absentees haven't been counted yet.  I'd expect Cuomo to do slightly better in absentees than Teachout because he's the machine candidate and absentees tend to favor machine candidates in primaries.  So Cuomo's mark to beat in the general may be higher.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NE-GOV: LG Heidemann resigns from office, ticket on: September 10, 2014, 11:37:25 pm
The Nebraska Secretary of State has agreed to take Heidemann's name off the ballot despite it being past the deadline for such changes.  State Auditor Mike Foley is Heineman's new running mate.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CT-Quinnipiac: Foley (R) opens lead on: September 10, 2014, 05:24:15 pm
Why is Visconti taking equally from Malloy and Foley?

Democrats who don't like Malloy but aren't willing to pull the lever for a Republican, I suppose. 

Visconti probably won't get 7% anyway.  Independents tend to poll higher than their actual numbers.
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