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October 13, 2015, 06:04:23 pm
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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Leadership Megathread: it's House of Cards but without the monologues on: October 12, 2015, 02:44:36 pm
Here is an article that outlines some of the "problems" with the Freedom Caucus demands. It is not just about procedural niceties that they get to cast a vote on legislation framed the way they want it to be allowed by the rules committee, or that legislative proposals need to go through committee first, and pass there, and so forth. There is substance, and procedures, that essentially would shut the government down unless Obama and the Dems bend over and do with the FC wants, like defund Obamacare, and major entitlement reform, and minor little stuff like that. That is basically why the rest of the Pubs need to tell them to take a hike.

My fantasy is for the moderates to state that if the Freedom Caucus does not follow the will of a majority of the caucus, as to both who is the speaker, and what the rules of the road are, and the agenda is, then who is speaker will become largely moot, because they are going to team up with the Dems and run the House by discharge petition, to keep the government functioning, and passing what the Senate is able to pass, while the rest can just spend their time from now on jacking off. Two can go balls to the wall you know. And in this fight, in the end, the ones getting their heads handed to them on a platter will be the Freedom Caucus.

Until the Republican base en masse rises up against a traitorous Establishment that is siding with Democrats and Obama instead of listening to the voters who put them in office.  Then, the ones getting their heads handed to them on a platter will be Establishment Republicans, in primaries across the nation.  And they will deserve it, for violating their mandate.
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2015 Special Senate Election on: October 09, 2015, 05:13:05 pm
AT-LARGE SENATE - to fill one vacancy

[1] Pikachu of New Jersey
The People's Party

[2] Talleyrand of Texas
Federalist Party

[  ] Write-in:______________________________

[  ] None of the above
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Impact on race if Pope Francis wins the Nobel Peace Prize (today) on: October 09, 2015, 01:47:10 pm
I dare you to go to the U.S. edition of any cable news website to see how little the U.S. cares about who won the Nobel Peace Prize.  The story is buried at the bottom of the website, if it is featured at all.   Even the New York Times relegates it to the side, not front and center.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Impact on race if Pope Francis wins the Nobel Peace Prize (today) on: October 08, 2015, 11:41:53 pm
None.  Nobody in the U.S. cares who wins the Nobel Peace Prize, especially after it has been given to terrorists like Yasser Arafat and unfit politicians who had done nothing until that point to deserve it, like Barack Obama.  The prize has no real meaning.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Trump have the most lopsided home precinct against him in history? on: October 08, 2015, 08:35:31 pm

Not quite.  According to the New York Times, Romney won the in-person election day vote in 1 and tied in 1 Manhattan precinct.  Guess where the tie occurred?  The precinct that includes Trump Tower (which is where the article says Trump lived at the time).  The Romney win was in a sparsely-populated Midtown Manhattan precinct near the Waldorf-Astoria.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Trump have the most lopsided home precinct against him in history? on: October 08, 2015, 08:28:38 pm
In presidential elections, just about every Manhattan precinct reflexively votes Democratic.

And the ones that are "less" Democratic are 65 - 35 in favor of the Democratic candidate as opposed to 85 - 15.

And what did McCain lose his home precinct by?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Trump have the most lopsided home precinct against him in history? on: October 08, 2015, 08:07:12 pm
It depends on where he actually lives.  I don't think every Manhattan precinct reflexively votes Democratic, at least in local races.  There are some Republicans in places like the Upper East Side. And if he lives in a Midtown precinct with few actual voters, he could win it.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Could Congress just raise Debt Ceiling to Quadrillion, and continually fund gov? on: October 08, 2015, 08:03:25 pm
Raising the debt ceiling is not a blank check. It only allows the government to spend what it already has agreed to spend by passing Budgets or CRs.

Please look at Blue3's option b.  That does not merely involve raising the debt ceiling, but budgeting forever.  Which would be a dumb thing to do for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that circumstances change and different parts of the bureaucracy need to grow or shrink from year to year.  It's also probably illegal, as one Congress can't bind the next.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: With McCarthy out of the running, who will be the next Speaker? on: October 08, 2015, 06:45:10 pm
Exactly, unless he gets the job entirely on his own terms. It is a horrible job, at least given the state of the current Pub ranks in the House. Some of them don't understand what intelligent governance, and pluralism, is all about.

I call those people the surrender-first Republican establishment, who haven't even tried to use their power to force Obama to veto things and put him on record on the wrong side of public opinion.

I honestly have no clue who will be the next speaker.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Could Congress just raise Debt Ceiling to Quadrillion, and continually fund gov? on: October 08, 2015, 06:39:09 pm

Prior to 1995, the ceiling was raised automatically with each new appropriation bill. So Congress actually has a few options regarding the debt ceiling.

I have never understood why they were separated. Once Congress appropriates money they have essentially approved the required increase in debt. It makes no sense to have to make a separate vote, especially as it is an uncomfortable vote. Better to bury it in the appropriations.

Congress hasn't passed an actual budget or omnibus appropriation bills for years, largely due to Democratic intransigence.  Harry Reid never wanted to put the Democrats on record, and continues to obstruct Republican appropriation bills.

Constitutionally, the House is supposed to have the power of the purse.  I'm not sure why any Congress should abdicate that responsibility and let the executive spend whatever it wants whenever it wants.  Our government isn't supposed to work that way.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kevin McCarthy DROPS OUT, the House GOP in absolute chaos on: October 08, 2015, 06:33:24 pm
I'm not talking about the Republican Party platform, Wulfric. Or even conservatism.

The Republican Congress needs to be taken out back and shot.

They are just fundamentally not serious about governing.

You're right.  The Republican Congress doesn't fight Obama hard enough and actually force him to veto bills, putting him and the Democratic party on the record on the wrong side of public opinion.  Instead, they've been preemptively surrendering on things like the Iran treaty, where the mushy establishment created a rule that only 1/3rd of the Congress is needed to ratify a treaty instead of the constitutionally required 2/3rds.  This has justifiably enraged the Republican base, and is coming back to haunt the establishment wing of the Republican party.  While it's not clear whether the infidelity allegations or his gaffes are truly what did McCarthy in, the establishment wing of the party is reaping what it sows.  

Why is compromise always a one-way street, where conservatives must always yield to so-called moderates?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton’s Problem With Men on: October 08, 2015, 04:18:00 pm
I understand about guns (I favor gun control, but then I'm gay), but do you think women are more pro illegal immigration than men (to frame the issue a bit crudely, but whatever)? That is an interesting thing to ponder. It might be true. Any data on that one?  That is my theme for the month - give me the data! Smiley

I went by what the National Journal article said (they also mentioned abortion).  After a quick search, a WSJ/NBC News Poll from 2014, though, suggests the gender gap on immigration works the other way - with men more likely to see immigration as helping rather than hurting.  I don't know why, and the article explaining the poll doesn't either, calling it puzzling.  There is a huge income disparity on that question, which makes sense.  I don't know if there are other polls showing different things.

But that's not my point.  When creating a false "war on..." narrative, you only need to stress one or two issues that the group in question supposedly supports that the other party opposes (or vice versa).  And there are plenty of issues that men see differently than women where Hillary Clinton (and most Democrats) take the side more supported by women than men.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton’s Problem With Men on: October 08, 2015, 03:49:02 pm
What war on men has she conducted? It's not as if she's out speaking negatively about men or anything.

Nor are most Republicans speaking negatively about women, yet Democrats and the media have claimed there is a Republican war on women merely because they take political positions that some women don't like.  As the article notes, Hillary is has taken political positions anathema to many men on things like gun control and immigration.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Hillary Clinton’s Problem With Men on: October 08, 2015, 02:27:12 pm
Hillary Clinton’s Problem With Men
National Journal/Josh Kraushaar

Quote from: National Journal
Clinton is performing as poorly with men as Republicans do with Hispanics. She won’t win a general election unless she can close the gender gap.

When Hil­lary Clin­ton entered the pres­id­en­tial race, she ex­pec­ted to win over­whelm­ing sup­port among women in her bid to be­come the first fe­male pres­id­ent. In­stead, she’s find­ing out that an un­pre­ced­en­ted level of res­ist­ance to her can­did­acy among men is un­der­min­ing the con­ven­tion­al wis­dom that she’d be the strongest Demo­crat­ic nom­in­ee in the gen­er­al elec­tion.  

Put an­oth­er way: Clin­ton is now nearly as un­pop­u­lar with men as Don­ald Trump is with wo­men. That’s say­ing something.

The latest round of polling for Clin­ton is bru­tal. This week’s NBC News/Wall Street Journ­al/Mar­ist sur­vey in Iowa shows her fa­vor­ab­il­ity rat­ing with men at a mere 27 per­cent, while two-thirds view her un­fa­vor­ably. Her minus-39 net fa­vor­ab­il­ity with men is 28 points worse than Vice Pres­id­ent Joe Biden and 27 points be­hind Sen. Bernie Sanders. The story is the same in New Hamp­shire, where the NBC/WSJ/Mar­ist poll found both Sanders and Biden with net-pos­it­ive rat­ings, while Clin­ton’s ap­prov­al is deeply un­der­wa­ter, stuck at 30 per­cent.

The swing-state polling is a mir­ror im­age of her na­tion­al num­bers. Last week, Quin­nipi­ac found Clin­ton’s neg­at­ive rat­ings with white men at a stun­ning 72 per­cent—sig­ni­fic­antly worse than the Demo­crat­ic Party’s already-ser­i­ous struggles with that demo­graph­ic group. Mean­while, she’s not per­form­ing at nearly a strong-enough level with wo­men to coun­ter­act the prob­lem. Only 49 per­cent of wo­men viewed her fa­vor­ably in the poll, with 47 per­cent hold­ing neg­at­ive views. For all the self-in­flic­ted prob­lems that Re­pub­lic­ans have in reach­ing out to a di­ver­si­fy­ing coun­try, Hil­lary Clin­ton’s fa­vor­ab­il­ity with white men is worse than Jeb Bush’s with His­pan­ics, Ben Car­son’s with Afric­an-Amer­ic­ans, and Carly Fior­ina’s with wo­men in the same sur­vey.


This article turns conventional wisdom on it's head.  The media and the Democrats always tout Republicans' supposed issues with women voters - the so-called Republican war on women.  But gender gaps work both ways.  if Hillary Clinton is so negatively viewed by men that she's viewed negatively by them at levels usually seen by Hispanics against Republicans, is it time to talk about Hillary Clinton's "war on men"?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton: White House Dream Is Over! on: October 07, 2015, 06:46:07 pm
So according to the National Enquirer, Hillary has brain cancer and/or multiple sclerosis and/or a blood clot and/or depression and a drinking problem.  And based on actuarial tables, should already be dead.   But not even their "doctor" cited in the article has actually examined her.  Okay.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Jeb Bush Should Face Facts: It’s Time to Drop Out on: October 06, 2015, 06:05:28 pm
Jeb Bush Should Face Facts: It’s Time to Drop Out
The Daily Beast/Will Rahn
Jeb, this isn’t working. You’re a bad candidate, and all you’re going to do now is damage the guy who can beat Trump. Is that what you want?

Jeb, this just isn’t going to work. After all that money spent, you’re still sagging nationally and in fourth place in New Hampshire, a state you need to win.

You’ve had nearly a year to make your case. It isn’t working. You should pack it in.

The conventional wisdom a few months ago was that your brother’s catastrophic presidency would be your bid’s biggest hurdle. Now, in a fit of desperation, it looks like you’re about to draft him to stump for you. Putting aside that George W. is still despised by a not-insignificant swath of the Republican electorate, how is that going to play in the general should you somehow win the nomination? You’re making the Democrats’ job easy, Jeb. They’ll be more than happy to attach you to his legacy, and you’re doing that for them.

Speaking of the Democrats, we know what will happen if you drag this out through next spring. The going thinking right now is that the guys really low in the polls—your Rand Pauls and George Patakis—should be next to drop out. But what damage do they do to the GOP by staying in? You Bushes, meanwhile, for all your patrician aloofness, are some of the dirtiest campaigners out there, and every jab you get in at your fellow establishmentarians like Marco Rubio is going to be used against them by the left. It’s one thing to toughen up a nominee in a primary fight—it’s another to make them damaged goods, unready to lead.


This is the Daily Beast's headline, not mine.

And so it begins.  I still can't comprehend why Jeb Bush is first on Betfair.  He is a terrible, gaffe-prone candidate with all the baggage that comes with his last name.
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Candidate Declaration Thread on: October 02, 2015, 12:40:34 am
I will be standing in the Northeast Governor election - and Northeast Assembly election (should this be allowed by NE law).

There is no Northeast law barring one from running for both offices simultaneously.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: October 01, 2015, 11:07:30 pm
It's a very classic thing for Bloc and its provincial counterpart to fall back upon certain dog-whistles. To a certain segment for the Quebec nationalist base, Quebec should be for the Québécois alone.

According to a Leger poll for the Canadian government, 93% of Quebec residents (and 82% of Canadians generally) supported "a requirement that people show their face during Canadian citizenship ceremonies".  With that level of support, why wouldn't the Bloc want to ban the niqab at citizenship ceremonies, especially when their main rivals (NDP and Liberals) have taken a position outside of the Quebec mainstream on the issue?  They're trying to win elections.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE: Northeast v. SomebodyWhoExists on: October 01, 2015, 10:04:10 pm
I'd like to thank the jury for their service and their prompt verdict.

The defendant has unanimously been found not guilty.  SomebodyWhoExists, you are to be immediately released from custody and are free to go.
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE: Northeast v. SomebodyWhoExists on: September 30, 2015, 10:58:10 pm
Thank you for your closing statements.  It is now time for the jury to deliberate and come to a verdict. 

As far as I know, there is no specific Northeast law regarding overthrowing the government.  The federal Re-Consolidated Criminal Justice Act states:

The following acts are hereby declared Acts of Treason:

1. Rebellion, defined as the use of military forces to overthrow the Federal or any Regional government of Atlasia.

2. Aiding of a rebellion, defined as the fully knowing and intentional direction of funds, military aid, or strategic advice to a person or group seeking to engage in rebellion.

The prosecution has the burden of proving that a crime has occurred beyond a reasonable doubt.

Please review the evidence and state your verdict below.  I will PM the jurors to ensure that they see it is verdict time.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happened to Kasich? on: September 30, 2015, 08:47:09 pm
The GOP establishment hates Cruz. Everyone in the Senate loathes him. He is not going anywhere.

And the GOP base hates the GOP establishment.  Ergo...

Atlas severely underestimates how much the Republican base doesn't support candidates who helped Obama implement Obamacare in Ohio by expanding Medicaid.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE3: Northeast Independence Amendment (debating) on: September 27, 2015, 10:41:22 pm
I know my influence on amendments tends to be low and I'm the leader of the unity option, but I'd really like to see either a 50% turnout threshold or a requirement of more than a simple majority for the referendum to pass. This is a big decision, and I think that it really needs a clear mandate if it passes. (Also, there is the precedent of the original bill having one.)

That's not currently required for constitutional amendments to pass.  You'd have to amend the constitution to make that threshold possible.  I'm not sure that it can be done in one step - though I suppose if this amendment said that a 50% turnout threshold was required for this amendment to pass, it might work.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Does Saskatchewan have more in common with Manitoba or Alberta? on: September 24, 2015, 10:20:13 pm

Unlike Manitoba, Saskatchewan isn't dominated by one big city.  Like Alberta, it has two main cities, Saskatoon and Regina, that vie for provincial dominance.  Oil is becoming increasingly important to the province, like Alberta.  It is also more Conservative than Manitoba, federally, and more conservative provincially.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Constitutional Convention Delegate Election on: September 22, 2015, 01:43:23 pm

[  ] Bore of Rhode Island

[4] Cincinnatus of New York

[3] ClarkKent of Connecticut

[6] Clyde1998 of Massachusetts

[  ] Evergreen of Maine

[  ] Oakvale of Delaware

[5] Pikachu of New Jersey

[2] RGN08 of New York

[1] Winfield of Rhode Island

[  ] Write-in:______________________________

[  ] None of the above
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE: Northeast v. SomebodyWhoExists on: September 21, 2015, 08:53:05 pm
Prosecutor Pikachu - your closing statement please.
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