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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Reintroducing the Cabinet Reform Amendment on: May 25, 2015, 08:03:56 am
Nay
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Cities and Towns Estimates To Be Relased By The Census on Thursday on: May 21, 2015, 10:47:48 pm
Assuming I've done the spreadsheet math right and correctly filtered out counties and partial cities/towns:

Top 10 Cities >100,000 by Percentage Growth 2013-2014:
1) Frisco, TX (Dallas metro) +5.8%
2) McKinney, TX (Dallas metro) +5.1%
3) Irvine, CA (Los Angeles metro) +4.8%
4) Gilbert, AZ (Phoenix metro) +3.8%
5) Odessa, TX (oil) + 3.6%
6) Miramar, FL (Miami metro) +3.3%
7) Pearland, TX (Houston metro) +3.3%
8) Richardson, TX (Dallas metro) +3.2%
9) Murfreesboro, TN (Nashville metro) +3.2%
10) Midland, TX (oil) +3.2%


Top 10 Cities >50,000 by Percentage Growth 2013-2014:
1) San Marcos, TX (Austin metro) +7.9%
2) Georgetown, TX (Austin metro) +7.6%
3) Doral, FL (Miami metro) +7.0%
4) Frisco, TX (Dallas metro) +5.8%
5) South Jordan, UT (Salt Lake City metro) +5.7%
6) Conroe, TX (Houston metro) +5.2%
7) McKinney, TX (Dallas metro) +5.1%
8) Milpitas, CA (San Jose metro) +5.1%
9) Meridian, ID (Boise metro) +5.1%
10) Castle Rock, CO (Denver metro) +4.9%


Top 10 Cities >10,000 by Percentage Growth 2013-2014:
1) Waxhaw, NC (Charlotte metro) +13.2%
2) Buda, TX (Austin metro) +12.7%
3) Williston, ND (oil) +12.1%
4) Prosper, TX (Dallas metro) +10.9%
5) Collegdale, TN (Chattanooga metro) +10.6%
6) Youngsville, LA (Lafayette metro) +10.2%
7) Anna, TX (Dallas metro) +10.1%
8) Broussard, LA (Lafayette metro) +10.0%
9) Johnstown, CO (Fort Collins metro) +9.9%
10) McFarland, CA (Bakersfield metro) +9.4% - likely prison-related


Top 5 Cities by Overall Population Growth 2013-2014
1) New York, NY +52,700
2) Houston, TX +35,752
3) Los Angeles, CA +30,924
4) Austin, TX +25,667
5) San Antonio, TX +24,931
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE1: Event Referendum Act on: May 21, 2015, 07:15:02 pm
Just who is supposed to vote on this referendum?  All Northeast citizens, or just citizens of a particular state?  Who opens the vote?  When is it held?  Or is this just supposed to be symbolic with no actual vote?

Citizens of the state it's being held in. From a game perspective, it's symbolic, but it'd hypothetically have a binding effect. (Just look at 2022 Olympics to see how they can have an effect.)

You haven't specified in the law who opens the vote, how long it is open for, when it is held, etc.  It's also not clear to me that we can call for a state-only referendum by law instead of in the Northeast constitution, but that's a separate issue.

It seems like this law is only a symbolic one, not one where we will actually vote on these referenda, so is that sort of thing really necessary to add?

If it is truly symbolic, then it should say so.  Otherwise, someone might have to actually open up voting booths to comply with the law.

I don't care what path the Northeast chooses here, but it should choose a clear path so that there is no ambiguity down the road.  The worst thing that can happen is that we have another law on the books that we quickly forget about.

If I were in the Assembly, I would vote Nay.  The law's not clear.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / How Suburban Are Big American Cities? on: May 21, 2015, 07:07:38 pm
How Suburban Are Big American Cities?
FiveThirtyEight.com/Jed Kolko
Quote
What, exactly, is a city? Technically, cities are legal designations that, under state laws, have specific public powers and functions. But many of the largest American cities — especially in the South and West — don’t feel like cities, at least not in the high-rise-and-subways, “Sesame Street” sense. Large swaths of many big cities are residential neighborhoods of single-family homes, as car-dependent as any suburb.

Cities like Austin and Fort Worth in Texas and Charlotte, North Carolina, are big and growing quickly, but largely suburban. According to Census Bureau data released Thursday, the population of the country’s biggest cities (the 34 with at least 500,000 residents) grew 0.99 percent in 2014 — versus 0.88 percent for all metropolitan areas and 0.75 percent for the U.S. overall. But city growth isn’t the same as urban growth. Three cities of the largest 10 are more suburban than urban, based on our analysis of how people describe the neighborhoods where they live.

--Snip--

It turns out that many cities’ legal boundaries line up poorly with what local residents perceive as urban. Nationally, 26 percent of Americans described where they live as urban, 53 percent said suburban and 21 percent said rural. (This comes close to the census estimate that 81 percent of the population is urban if “urban” is understood to include suburban areas.) Within “principal cities” of metropolitan areas (the census designates one or more cities in each metro as “principal”), respondents split 47 percent urban, 46 percent suburban and 7 percent rural, though those percentages include people in many small cities and metro areas. Looking only at respondents in the larger principal cities (those with a population greater than 100,000) of larger metropolitan areas (those with a population greater than 500,000), the breakdown was 56 percent urban, 42 percent suburban and 2 percent rural. That means close to half of people who live within city limits describe where they live as suburban.

Our analysis showed that the single best predictor of whether someone said his or her area was urban, suburban or rural was ZIP code density.

--Snip--

Furthermore, the new census population data shows that the fastest-growing large cities tend to be more suburban. Among the 10 fastest-growing cities with more than 500,000 people, five — Austin, Fort Worth, Charlotte, San Antonio and Phoenix — are majority suburban, and a sixth, Las Vegas, is only 50 percent urban. Only one of the 10 fastest-growing, Seattle, is at least 90 percent urban.

Among all cities with at least 100,000 residents, the correlation between population growth in the past year and urban share is -0.29. That’s statistically significant, but it indicates that there are plenty of exceptions to the general pattern of suburban cities growing faster — there are both fast-growing urban cities (such as Seattle) and slow-growing suburban cities (such as Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Louisville, Kentucky).

--Snip--

Interesting read. 

Not all "city growth" is created equal - or automatically benefits Democrats.  Suburban-heavy cities are growing faster than more urban ones.  Suburban-oriented growth, especially in the South, may be more Republican than Democrat-leaning.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is SSM such a big deal? on: May 21, 2015, 06:32:41 pm
So Same-Sex Marriage should be legalized federally this very instant then, because the people our representatives supposedly represent support it as a majority.

No.  Marriage is an issue that has been left to the states.  Let them decide.

I have little conceptual issue with state legislatures passing same sex marriage laws.  I disagree with it, but respect the democratic process.  What I have a big problem with is courts creating a new-found right to something that hasn't existed for thousands of years.  Nothing has changed to make something that was illegal now the law of the land.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is SSM such a big deal? on: May 21, 2015, 06:19:16 pm
What Christian teachings say about homosexuality is 100% irrelevant to this discussion because we have  a secular Constitution and government. 

We have a First Amendment which says Congress shall make no law prohibiting the free exercise of religion.  That means you can't force a church to perform gay marriages, and, ideally, a baker from baking a pro-gay marriage cake when it is against his religious beliefs to do so.  Sadly, some anti-religious "progressives" on your side want to force both, either through taking away tax-exempt status of religions that don't perform gay marriages or forcing bakers to bake something saying something you don't believe in.

We also have the right to elect officials who will enact whatever policies we think are relevant, whether they be based on religious beliefs, Satanism or moral relativism, as long as they do not go so far as to establish an official state religion.  So to say that we have a secular Constitution and government isn't quite true.  We should, ideally, have a government that reflects the values of those who our representatives represent.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is SSM such a big deal? on: May 21, 2015, 03:22:39 pm
AggregateDemand and CountryClassSF are trolls.  They shouldn't be engaged on this issue because they're just going to spout nonsense.

I am really sick of this nonsense of calling people who disagree with you trolls and/or putting them on ignore.  Not everyone is a so-called "progressive" who wants to shove their viewpoint on gay marriage down everyone's throat, regardless of legitimate religious objections. 

I have not noticed any gun pointing myself by SSM proponents. Rather it has all been ballot box and court action, where SSM proponents having a very high batting average. Yes, I know, you don't really believe your own hyperbole, but I digress. I also haven't noticed the word "Hitler" bandied about much either, and you know the Hitler rule - you invoke his name inappropriately, and you automatically lose the argument out of the box.

A CEO was forced out of his job for the "crime" of engaging in the political process by donating to the campaign for California's Proposition 8.   Bakers are being forced to bake cakes with messages in support of something they vehemently disagree with.   Some "progressives" label anyone who has legitimate religious objections to gay marriage as "bigots" and "haters", instead of engaging in debate, and try to ruin opponents' lives and job prospects. 

If you don't see that as gun pointing by SSM proponents, I don't know what to tell you.  If you dare disagree with SSM, you are evil incarnate to "progressives".
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE1: Event Referendum Act on: May 20, 2015, 09:05:34 pm
Just who is supposed to vote on this referendum?  All Northeast citizens, or just citizens of a particular state?  Who opens the vote?  When is it held?  Or is this just supposed to be symbolic with no actual vote?

Citizens of the state it's being held in. From a game perspective, it's symbolic, but it'd hypothetically have a binding effect. (Just look at 2022 Olympics to see how they can have an effect.)

You haven't specified in the law who opens the vote, how long it is open for, when it is held, etc.  It's also not clear to me that we can call for a state-only referendum by law instead of in the Northeast constitution, but that's a separate issue.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 09:17:34 pm
The Kentucky State Board of Elections' website shows the same result as AP and AoSDDHQ - Bevin +83.  But they claim there are still precincts outstanding in Jefferson County (Louisville).

Edited to add: A quick check of the precincts outstanding shows that 1 vote was cast in all of them combined for the 2014 Republican Senate primary.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 08:58:29 pm
WTF AP? You add in 12 more precincts but leave the #GOPGOV vote totals exactly the same for Bevin and Comer?



They very well could have been inner-city Louisville precincts or empty precincts with zero votes in the Republican Primary.  Or that there were outstanding precincts could have been a mistake.  Both have happened before.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 08:54:42 pm
AP is now all in, and has Bevin winning by 83.  AoSHQDD re-computed their numbers or something, and have Bevin winning by 80 er.. now 83, too.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 08:40:02 pm
AoSHQDD has Bevin winning by 496 votes with all precincts reporting.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 08:37:43 pm
BEVIN NOW LEADING BY roughly 100 VOTES!

With only 12 Jefferson County precincts outstanding.  Comer is getting crushed in the rest of the county.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 08:30:20 pm
Based on what is outstanding... Comer probably has this.

AoSHQDD has much of what the AP considers out in, and Bevin ahead by about 500 votes with 4 precincts out, presumably in Jefferson.  Ohio County went Bevin.  Ballard County went Comer, but was too small to matter.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 08:17:16 pm
I just heard that Comer is now leading by 30 votes.

With 99% in. 36 precincts to go.
Fully out:
Ohio County - 19
Ballard County - 13

Partially out:
Jefferson County (Louisville) - 12 (Comer a distant third)
Warren County - 5 (Comer leads)
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 08:09:59 pm
Still nothing from McCracken.  Think it gives the race to Comer.  Western KY = reverse NOVA?  Funny that the urban vote came in first!  

I wouldn't be so sure.  The other semi-urban Ohio River counties have tended to go to Bevin.  Even if McCracken is close to a tie, Comer could still pull it out when Cumberland and Ohio counties report, though.  He's heavily winning South Central Kentucky, where Cumberland County is.  Ohio County is in more marginal territory.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 07:49:47 pm
The largest county still fully out in the AP's count is McCracken (Paducah).  Comer won the few votes that have already reported (early vote?) 49-31.

I doubt it and the few other counties that are out are large enough to put Comer over the top, though.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 07:16:06 pm
Assuming the rest of Western Kentucky votes the same way as the counties currently partially in, Bevin wins this easily.  Heiner is running a distant third there, behind Comer, who is a close second to Bevin.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE1: Event Referendum Act on: May 19, 2015, 06:24:37 pm
Just who is supposed to vote on this referendum?  All Northeast citizens, or just citizens of a particular state?  Who opens the vote?  When is it held?  Or is this just supposed to be symbolic with no actual vote?
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE3: Amendment to the Northeast Constitution on: May 18, 2015, 09:48:34 pm
This amendment changes the Constitution's ability from three missed bills to four. I proposed this because the Assembly usually debates three bills at a time, and I feel that missing five days (because it usually takes less than 36 hours for the sponsor to advocate) is too strict. Four is a happy balance.

Is this good?

Well, that's up to my elected Representatives to debate, but it sounds like a sponsor's statement in support to me.
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE3: Amendment to the Northeast Constitution on: May 18, 2015, 09:08:59 pm
Under the SOAP (not yet updated on the wiki), all proposed constitutional amendments must be accompanied by a a formal explanation of the proposed change and arguments for it created by the sponsor.  The explanation is subject to debate, but within the sole control of the sponsor.  Any Representative against the proposed change can offer a formal statement against it, which is debated under similar rules.  These explanations are provided for the voters in the Atlas Fantasy Government board before the proposed amendment is voted on.

Awesome - how do I set it up?

I think you just state it in a post.  Your first post advocating the bill is a good start.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Connecticut election results 1922-Present on: May 18, 2015, 06:29:00 pm
Thought what was interesting?  I don't see a link.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE3: Amendment to the Northeast Constitution on: May 18, 2015, 06:24:04 pm
Under the SOAP (not yet updated on the wiki), all proposed constitutional amendments must be accompanied by a a formal explanation of the proposed change and arguments for it created by the sponsor.  The explanation is subject to debate, but within the sole control of the sponsor.  Any Representative against the proposed change can offer a formal statement against it, which is debated under similar rules.  These explanations are provided for the voters in the Atlas Fantasy Government board before the proposed amendment is voted on.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: DKrol: Running for Senate! on: May 17, 2015, 12:38:24 am
Endorsed!

Thanks for not forcing me to make another quixotic run at the Northeast Senate seat by entering the race.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: NE2: Northeastern Memorial Act on: May 16, 2015, 11:01:16 pm
What is "by for Sirnick" supposed to mean?  The phrase doesn't make any sense.
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