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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 21, 2017, 11:01:00 pm
The story of the Boston-Worcester-Providence CSA is one of fairly steady, unspectacular growth of about 400,000 people most years:



Most of the component metros have always grown, except on Cape Cod and the far reaches of New Hampshire:



The decadal County map gif shows Suffolk County (mainly Boston) lost population in the 1930s and 1950s-70s. Some of the losses were six-figures. Cape Cod rapidly grew, but is now stagnant:



The 1980-2016 yearly estimate map gif shows a pattern similar to San Francisco in the early 2000s, with much of the Massachusetts part of the population shrinking or stagnant.  Did the dot-com bust affect the Boston CSA, too, or is this due to people moving to the NH exurbs?



In the 2000-16 Town map gif, you can see that Cape Cod's population stagnation isn't exactly uniform or consistent town-by-town, and I think Bedford, MA losing population in the 2000s due to cuts at Hanscom AFB:



As for the static maps, the 1980-2016 county percentage population change map shows growth throughout - but higher percentage growth at the fringes of the CSA:



And the 2000-2016 county growth map shows Boston's county among the fastest-growing counties of the metro over that period, with losses on Cape Cod and urban Rhode Island:



I'm still trying to fix the 2000-16 Town growth maps.  The 2010-16 town version isn't terribly remarkable:

2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 21, 2017, 09:31:01 pm
Why is Ulster County PA part of the New York CSA?

Are there people in Ulster County who actually commute to NYC or spend a decent amount of time there?

Jimrtex can probably give you the technical answer, but as I understand it, CSA borders are based on commuting patterns.  They change every 5 years, and were last changed for 2012.  We're due for a 2017 update soon, probably in January 2018.

Enough Ulster County residents probably commute to Dutchess County (in the NY MSA) or White Plains, Westchester County to justify CSA status, but not Metro status.  And there might even be a few Ulster County residents who commute all the way to NYC on Metro North from Poughkeepsie, which is right across the Mid-Hudson Bridge from southern Ulster.  Ulster is in the NYC TV market, so including it in the CSA isn't terribly strange to me, anyway.

The stranger county to me is Carbon, PA, which is in the Allentown-Bethlehem Metro being in the CSA.  I doubt many people commute to NYC from there.  But enough probably commute to Lehigh County, PA to put it in the Allentown Metro, and enough Lehigh/Northampton County, PA residents probably commute to NYC or its NJ suburbs to put the Allentown MSA in the CSA.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 21, 2017, 03:05:36 pm
The Bay Area's CSA is the country's fifth-largest.  It is called San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland because San Jose is the largest city in the metro.  San Jose and San Francisco-Oakland are also in different metros.

The 1900-2016 CSA map gif shows a consistently growing San Francisco CSA:



The 1900-2016 metro map gif shows that every component metro grew every decade:



I had to use the slide effect instead of the flip effect on this gif because the latter was crashing my gifmaking program.

The decadal county map gif shows that the city/county of San Francisco lost population from the 50s through the 70s, probably due to suburbanization:



The yearly 1980-2016 yearly county estimate population change gif shows the effects of the dot com bust in the early 2000s.  Many counties lost population then, but have since rebounded, making the decade's growth in them net-positive:



The 2000-2016 yearly town estimate population change map gif shows how the dot com bust played out at the micro level:



The static 1980-2016 county percentage population change map shows good growth, particularly in the suburban/exurban counties:



And the 2000-16 static county map also shows CSA-wide growth:


Unfortunately, I noticed a rounding issue with my 2000-16 static town maps.  I have to re-update my databases in order to fix it.  I also have to fix at least some of the earlier maps (there's more near 0s than there should be, and county remainders, at least, are getting rounded up to the nearest tenth, instead of not being rounded). 

Here is a static map of town 2010-16 growth.  Everything is growing:

4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 20, 2017, 11:57:32 pm
One piece of conventional wisdom is that the outflow from the IL collar counties this decade was in part due to moves to neighboring states driven by tax policy. That CW seems to hold up to some degree in the northern collars of Lake and McHenry compared to Kenosha. It doesn't seem to hold for the eastern edge, since the neighboring areas of IN in the CSA aren't growing.

From the town maps I've already done, that seems to be the case in the St. Louis Metro.  Metro East Illinois is shrinking, while the STL Missouri exurbs are growing.

Right now in Chicagoland, it seems like only the far west and southwest exurbs are growing - along the newish I-355 corridor, perhaps?
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 20, 2017, 11:37:33 pm
Baltimore and Washington, DC are in the same CSA.  Like the federal government, the CSA has steadily grown since 1900:



But it really is a tale of two cities.  The current Baltimore Metro used to be larger than the DC Metro.  As the metro map gif shows, DC is now over twice as large:



The 1900-2016 decadal county growth map gif shows that both the cities of DC and Baltimore started steadily losing population in the 1950s.  But DC has been gaining population recently.  Baltimore generally has not:



With the raw growth numbers removed, you can see the percentage growth patterns of Virginia's independent cities more clearly:



The 1980-2016 yearly percentage population growth map gif shows that DC turned the corner around 2005 and is currently picking up steam. Baltimore continued to lose population, except for a few years:



Unfotunately, the 2000-16 yearly town map gif doesn't add a whole lot of data.  There are fewer incorporated areas in most of the south and west, and Census doesn't provide yearly population estimates for CDPs:



The static 1980-2016 map shows that DC has had net positive growth since 1980.  But the DC suburbs and exurbs have grown even more rapidly:



The 2000-16 static county map shows the same pattern:


For comparisons, the 2000-16 static town map is below:


And, finally, here's the 2010-16 static town map, which is marginally useful for redistricting purposes:

6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 19, 2017, 11:02:49 pm
Like Los Angeles, the Chicago CSA has grown every decade since 1900:



But unlike Los Angeles, some of the component Chicago CSA Metropolitan/Micropolitan Areas haven't always grown.  The core Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metro area has always grown, though:



The 1900-2016 decadal county map shows a somewhat erratic growth pattern.  Even Cook County has lost population at times:


And the 1980-2016 shows an equally erratic pattern, although the Collar Counties have generally grown - until recently:



The 2000-2016 town map gif shows early growth in the far-out exurbs, followed by growth inward, and now, not much growth at all, except perhaps in the far west and southwest suburbs:


The 1980-2016 static county growth map shows population losses in Cook, and gains in most of the Collar Counties:


The 2000-2016 County Map is similar:


The 2000-2016 Town Map shows an outward growth pattern:


And, as always, the 2010-2016 Town Map might be useful for redistricting:
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 19, 2017, 05:22:21 pm
Maps of the Los Angeles CSA are a bit more boring than New York, because there are only 5 counties in the CSA.

First, the CSA overview map:


The CSA has grown every decade, usually at a healthy clip.

Next, the map of the component metro areas:



Again, the three component metros grew every decade.

The decadal county growth maps show the same consistent growth pattern at the county level:


But the 1980-2016 yearly population estimate change maps show that Los Angeles County lost population a few years during the mid-1990s and mid 2000s.  Orange County also lost a little bit of population in the mid 2000s:



Next, the 2000-16 town population change map.  I've zoomed in to only include the major populated parts of Riverside and San Bernadino Counties.  The town population change maps pretty much confirm the OC and LA County slight population loss pattern:



Finally, two static town population change maps - 2010-2016 and 2000-2016.  I'm only going to make the county 1980-2016 and 2000-2016 maps on request, since there are so few counties in the LA CSA, and the maps wouldn't be that interesting:

2010-2016:


2000-2016:

8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 18, 2017, 08:38:46 pm
The New York-Newark CSA has grown every decade since 1900 except the 1970s:



But not every component Metro/Micro area has been so lucky:



In particular, the Kingston MSA (Ulster County) significantly lost population in the 1910s, and the MSAs on the outer fringes of the New York CSA have been losing population this decade.  As you can see from the map, the population loss of the 1970s was largely due to a decline in the core New York City MSA.

The county-level 1900-2016 map shows even more variation (the white numbers are population change):


Many NYC boroughs had been losing population before 1970, but the bulk of the NYC Metro's 1970s population loss was due to losses in New York City and its immediate suburbs.  Gains in the outer suburbs were not enough to make up for this population loss.

Note that the Bronx was part of New York County until 1914.  Some of the 1910-20 Manhattan (New York County) population loss was due to the separation.

Yearly county population estimates are available from 1980 onward.  I've mapped the yearly population change below.  I think there is a lot of noise in the 1999-2000 estimate change because the 2000 estimates were revamped after the census:



You can see how the NYC exurban counties started to lose population around 2009 or so.  This trend continues.

The last gif is of NYC CSA town population growth from 2000-16.  You've seen gifs like these in my Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 thread, but many of the maps weren't properly centered and didn't include the full CSA:



Finally, I've been asked to make some static maps of county and town population changes from 1980-2016 and 2000-2016.  Not every 2010 town existed in its current form in 2000, so there may be some discontinuities.  Those towns are marked in gold.

First, NYC CSA county population growth from 1980-16:


What's most stunning about this map is the growth of the Pocono exurbs and slight decline in Essex County (Newark).

Next, NYC CSA county population growth from 2000-16:


Compare that to NYC CSA town population growth from 2000-16:


Finally, an overall NYC CSA town population growth map from 2010-16.  This map might be good for redistricting purposes:

9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016 on: July 18, 2017, 08:36:16 pm
Below you'll find maps of the population change in 2012 Primary Statistical Areas (PSA), i.e. Combined Statistical Areas (CSA) and separate Metropolitan Areas from 1900-2016.  Combined Statistical Areas combine Metro and Micropolitan areas into larger areas.  Not every Metro is in a CSA.  I will try to do these maps in PSA Population Order.

PSA Rank (2014)
1.  New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA
2.  Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
3.  Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
4.  Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA
5.  San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA
6.  Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT

Metro Rank (2016)
1.  New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
6. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
10. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
11. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
13.  Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
21. Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
35. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
38. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
57. Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
58. Worcester, MA-CT
65. New Haven-Milford, CT
67. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
69. Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
77. Stockton-Lodi, CA
107. Santa Rosa, CA
122. Vallejo-Fairfield, CA
132. Manchester-Nashua, NH
143. Trenton, NJ
174. Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
183. Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
207. Barnstable Town, MA
233. Kingston, NY
252. East Stroudsburg, PA
266. Chambersburg-Waynesboro, PA
290. Napa, CA
297. Winchester, VA-WV
337. California-Lexington Park, MD
338. Michigan City-La Porte, IN
339. Kankakee, IL

Warning: This thread will be very graphics-heavy.  In order to stop a gif, click on it, which will bring you to my hosting source, makeagif.com.  If you right click on the map, there is an option to show controls.  Select show controls, and pause and start it whenever you want.
10  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Why was this post deleted instead of edited? on: July 14, 2017, 08:19:57 pm
How about you just not swear in your posts?  Then, nothing gets deleted.

The last thing we need is for this forum to get added to blocking filters because of excessive vulgarity.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 14, 2017, 05:31:03 pm
The 1920-1930 blue swath across Georgia was interesting. Reprise of Sherman's march to the sea?

According to the Georgia Enyclopedia, the boll weevil decimated the cotton crop, leading to a mass exodus from the state's cotton belt: "During the 1920s more than 400,000 residents, almost all black, migrated to other parts of the country, and between 1910 and 1930 nearly half the state's agricultural workers had abandoned farming."
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 12, 2017, 12:42:16 am
I'm working on a larger project with more historical maps.  For now, here's a gif of percentage population growth in the US from 1900-2016, using 2016 county lines throughout:



Numerical Change Map, for comparison:


Alaska (From 1960):


Hawaii:


Unlike Alaska, Hawaii's data goes back pre-statehood.  

In case you can't read the key, color gradation is in 5-point increments from 0-60%. Gold colored counties didn't exist in those years.  Usually, they were part of another county.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Modeling Election Results on: July 11, 2017, 01:03:57 am
As expected, the entire state was extremely conservative on the DII, with only a single Black belt county in liberal numbers. However, Central,Far northern, and gulf alabama were less conservative than northern and southeastern alabama. Any reason for this?

Northeastern Alabama has more college graduates than the rest of the state. It is the rocket scientist capital of Alabama - literally.  A lot of rocket research goes on there for NASA and its contractors.

Gulf Alabama probably has more transplants than the rest of the state.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 08, 2017, 01:01:47 am
Is this plausible enough to be used for a reliable projection to 2020, for purposes of redistricting?



The holes on the map along the Schuylkill and around the Naval Shipyard are very small census tracts. The change ranges from 20% to -20%, from the 2010 Census to the 2015 5-year ACS (which would represent an averaged population from 2011 to 2015), if the rate of change were constant, this would be about July 2013.

What would you do?  Triple the rate from the ACS?

I think there's an issue with post-recession rates of change being different than pre-recession rates.  For example, the Pittsburgh region seems to have actually grown a bit from 2008 to 2012 or so - and has declined since.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 06, 2017, 10:11:12 pm
For comparisons, here's a map of NYC Metro Growth from 2000-10 and 2010-16 (versus the April 2000 and 2010 estimates base) and the NYC yearly growth gif.  These maps isolate out the NYC metro from the rest of the country.








Note that the key for the static multi-year change maps is in 2-point increments, and I haven't reframed the gif to get the outer areas of Dutchess and Ocean Counties in yet.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 05, 2017, 07:55:08 pm
And last (at least for now), one of the least interesting maps I've made so far - the Tucson Metro Area, which is just Pima County:

17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 05, 2017, 07:02:38 pm
The growing Grand Rapids, Michigan metropolitan area:

18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 05, 2017, 06:13:27 pm
Rochester, NY:

19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Kamala's Ridiculous Redistricting on: July 05, 2017, 01:49:44 pm
F[inks], wikimedia is gonna delete the image uploads.

Assuming the images aren't too large, you always can use Atlas' own Gallery to host images posted here.
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 05, 2017, 01:22:30 am
The Buffalo Metropolitan area, which is just Erie and Niagara Counties:



Buffalo and Niagara Falls lost a lot of population.  Only some of that loss was made up in the suburbs - but at least Buffalo's suburbs and exurbs have been slightly growing.

Buffalo rounds out the top 50 metros - only 3 more metros with a population over 1,000,000 remain.  After I am done with those 3, I'm probably going to have to go back to properly frame some of the earlier metro areas to include all counties.  And, as always, I'll take lower-ranking metros on request.
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 05, 2017, 12:34:52 am
Greater Birmingham, Alabama:
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 04, 2017, 11:15:17 pm
The Salt Lake City Metro - which is technically just Salt Lake County and the geographically huge but sparsely populated Tooele County.  I've expanded the map a little to get in more Wasatch Front cities that are in the CSA but not metro area.

23  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: I made a post, but it does not show up in the thread. on: July 04, 2017, 12:56:47 am
Does it have anything to do with this?

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235323.0
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 03, 2017, 10:16:04 pm
Hartford:



It used to grow, but not so much any more.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: July 03, 2017, 09:29:22 pm
Richmond:

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