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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: March 23, 2017, 09:19:06 pm
When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
May.

Technically it is incorporated place and minor civil division (i.e. legal entities).

Great! 

Hopefully, I'll find the time to update the maps I made last year, like the 2014-2015 Percentage Change Map for those incorporated places, minor civil divisions (and CDPs?).
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State Department to Approve Keystone XL Pipeline on: March 23, 2017, 08:28:49 pm
Good.

Any oil pipeline is at risk of being compromised, and this damn thing goes right over some of the largest aquifers in the nation.

So do train tracks.  And an oil train accident could blow up a town.  Why do you think pipeline transport is more dangerous than train transport, which is the most likely alternative?  And why do you prefer Saudi or Venezuelan oil to North American oil, which is the alternative if you do the really dumb thing and stop people from drilling for oil here?

What do you think about spending our time and money developing renewable resources instead of destroying the land, creating a possible environmental hazard, and pissing off a lot of people in the process?

No thanks.  Wind farms aren't good for the environment.  They kill birds, decimate views, and are uneconomical in providing power at times of peak demand when the wind isn't blowing.  New dams and nuclear power plants will never get built because of liberal and NIMBY opposition to anything that makes economic sense.  And don't get me started on solar.

I'll take what works over false promises that sunshine and unicorn farts will power the future.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: March 23, 2017, 08:06:57 pm
When do the county subdivision estimates come out?  June?
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State Department to Approve Keystone XL Pipeline on: March 23, 2017, 07:58:49 pm
Good.

Any oil pipeline is at risk of being compromised, and this damn thing goes right over some of the largest aquifers in the nation.

So do train tracks.  And an oil train accident could blow up a town.  Why do you think pipeline transport is more dangerous than train transport, which is the most likely alternative?  And why do you prefer Saudi or Venezuelan oil to North American oil, which is the alternative if you do the really dumb thing and stop people from drilling for oil here?
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2016 Census County Estimates on: March 23, 2017, 07:15:46 pm
The 10 fastest-growing counties with a 2016 population of 10,000+ from 2015-16:
1) San Juan, Utah (Monticello/Blanding) +7.56% - I have no idea what is fueling growth in SE Utah
2) Kendall, Texas (Boerne) +5.16% (NW San Antonio suburban/exurban sprawl)
3) Hays, Texas (San Marcos) +5.09% (SE Austin suburban/exurban sprawl)
4) Wasatch, Utah (Heber City) +4.67% (Provo/SLC exurban sprawl)
5) Dallas, Iowa (Waukee) +4.63% (W Des Moines suburban/exurban sprawl)
6) Comal, Texas (New Braunfels) +4.40% (NE San Antonio suburban/exurban sprawl)
7) Sumter, Florida (The Villages) +4.30% (Continued retirement home growth in America's Friendliest Hometown TM - or so the ads claim)
8) Crook, Oregon (Prineville) +4.26% (Sprawl from the Redmond/Bend area of Oregon, which has been growing)
9) Juab, Utah (Eureka/Nephi) +4.20% (Provo exurban sprawl)
4.20%
10) Kittitas, Washington (Ellensburg/Cle Elum) +4.20 (Exurban sprawl over the mountains from Seattle, perhaps?)

And the biggest percentage losers of the 10,000+ set:
10) San Juan, New Mexico (Farmington) -3.05% (Probably partly due to oil, but IIRC, it has been losing population despite the oil boom)
9) Telfair, Georgia (McRae)   -3.13% (Rural south Georgia ?)
8) Woodward, Oklahoma (Woodward) -3.14% (Oil?)
7) Ochiltree, Texas (Perryton) -3.66% (Oil?)
6) Uintah, Utah (Vernal) -3.75% (Oil?)
5) Geary, Kansas (Junction City) -3.77% (Cuts at Fort Riley?)
4) Richland, Montana (Sidney) -3.82% (Oil)
3) Charlton, Georgia (Homeland) -3.94% (Alligators moving out of the Okefenokee Swamp?)
2) Beckham, Oklahoma (Sayre/Elk City) -4.69% (Oil?)
1) Chattahoochee, GA (Cusetta)   -4.71% (Cuts at Fort Benning? - This county has been a perennial loser over the past few years, IIRC)

Williams, North Dakota (Williston) just missed the cut at number 11.  It lost -2.97% of its population since 2015.  It's still up 53.30% from the 2010 Census, though.

The fastest-growing county without regard to overall population was Hudspeth, Texas, just east of El Paso County.  It grew by 18.34% from 2015-16.  Granted, the gain was just 628 residents out of its new 4,053 population.  But it may be a county to watch in the future, as El Paso's growth sprawls down I-10 and/or US-62/180.



6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MI-01: Two Marine Veterans Could Face Off in 2018 on: March 23, 2017, 12:53:27 am
Firstly, Troll and Yooper are the best demonyms in the nation.
Secondly, Dems need Yoopers because they don't do well with Trolls. Nominating a Troll might well be to the Dems benefit.

There are more Trolls than Yoopers in the district, at least by population.  The question then becomes whether Yoopers are less likely to vote for a Troll than Trolls are to vote for a Yooper.  As I understand it, the UP has the stronger identity, and might be more willing to vote for one of their own because they are their own.  The Democrats nominated a Troll in 2016 - and lost.

If these are the two candidates, they are from totally different ends of the district.  Bergman is from Watersmeet, near the Wisconsin border.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MI-01: Two Marine Veterans Could Face Off in 2018 on: March 22, 2017, 11:36:09 pm
Not getting my hopes up. Local dems still have some support in the UP sure, but the mainland portion of this district is blood red these days.



Morgan lives in Traverse City, so he's a Troll (from under the bridge connecting the two peninsulas of Michigan).  Bergman is a Yooper from the UP.  I'm not sure that it makes sense for Democrats to nominate a Troll if they need the UP to win.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: March 22, 2017, 07:22:59 pm
I want to see if the (until recently) fast-growing oil counties, like McKenzie and Williams, ND, have started to lose population or are just growing more slowly.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: Voting Rights Amendment (Debating) on: March 21, 2017, 12:46:04 am
Okay, yea, we should definitely add that then.

After the decision in cinyc v. Lincoln, I think you must.  I leave it up to the House on how to phrase it - requirements for registration and frequent posting, requirements for residency and frequent posting, separately codifying the current 7-day registration requirement ("persons whose account and registration in Atlasia is fewer than 168 days old" perhaps), etc. - it is up to you as our elected representatives to decide.

Please stop and think about the regional implications before you act, too - can regions have a different residency or frequency requirement?  Should that decision be enshrined in the constitution or be left to the Atlasian legislature?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: March 20, 2017, 08:00:00 pm
I decided to run a GCS for this race as well and I got results in between Castro's and Cinyc's. They were,

Rob Quist - 48.4%
Greg Gianforte - 40.5%
Mark Wicks - 11.1%

I left out an "I won't be voting" option to maximize the amount of responses, so take this with an (extra) grain of salt. Here is the link to the actual survey.

Thanks.

Simple weighted to the 2014 November CPS actual voter percentages by age and sex, it's also Quist +8, 49/41/9.  I don't heart decimals.

The regional divide is there, but not as strong as in other polls.  Quist wins Western Montana by 14 (weighted), and loses Eastern Montana by 6 (weighted).  Western Montana was overrepresented in this poll, making up 78% of respondents versus the 59 or 60% they usually are.  The other two polls also overpolled Western Montana, but not by nearly this much.  If you re-weight the weighted regional results, you get Quist+6 statewide.

Agewise, Quist won every group except 35-44s and age unknowns.  Among men, the race is tied.  Quist has a 23 point lead among women.  Note: these results are unweighted.

Weighting spreadsheet here.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: cinyc vs. Northern Region (Lincoln) on: March 20, 2017, 05:52:10 pm
Thank you, your honors.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SB 2017-063: Amending the Federal Electoral Act Act (Debating) on: March 20, 2017, 12:07:19 am
Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until the Supreme Court decides the cinyc v. Lincoln case before jumping into a law change?  It might not be necessary if the court rules in Lincoln's favor.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: HOUSE RESOLUTION: Voting Rights Amendment (Debating) on: March 20, 2017, 12:05:54 am
As I said when the Senate tried to pass a similar bill in the last assembly, it's not clear that "requirements for frequent posting" includes being the current requirement that citizens be registered for 7 days before voting.  You need to add "and term of residency" or something similar to make sure that it does.

Remember - the Atlasian Supreme Court is currently hearing a case on whether regions can have a different registration requirement than the Feds - or anyone at all can have one - under the current constitution.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Donna Brazile expresses regret for leaking Debate questions to Clinton on: March 18, 2017, 08:12:23 pm
Brazile should just become an analyst. I don't think any campaign is gonna hire her. She's better off giving hot takes, like 90% of this forum.

Which news network is going to want to hire the hack who funneled debate questions to the Clinton campaign as an analyst?  That wouldn't be prudent - she can't be trusted not to do it again.

Like others have said, Brazile's only sorry that she got caught.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump's new budget will cut meals on wheels on: March 18, 2017, 08:07:51 pm
Do you think the reporter bothered to tell Linda Preast that Meals on Wheels isn't a government program?

neither helpful, nor the point.

Well, it sort of is the point.  Why is it the federal government's role to be funding programs like Meals on Wheels to begin with?  These are questions that some never ask, because they think the government should be involved in anything and everything - sort of like Chuck Schumer grandstanding on local New York TV very Sunday about the "outrage" of the week that's often not properly within the federal government's purview to begin with.  The "there oughta be a law" crowd never admit that oftentimes, no, there shouldn't be - particularly on the federal level.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: District Court, Splitting 2-1, Finds Texas Congressional Districts Violate VRA on: March 18, 2017, 12:36:14 pm
Replacing one poor CD for another, hosting the Pubs on their own petard. It's one thing to strike down the plot to neutalize white Dems in Travis. It's another to require something else, that I don't think comports with prior SCOTUS precedent, and is just not justified on public policy grounds, and certainly if the alternative comports with good redistricting principles, and is obviously not out to screw minorities. The court did mention the impermissible Pub intent, that it found. Minorities should not be used as pawns, splitting them up, to neutralize white Dems.

No.  Best I can tell, the courts would rather minorities be used as pawns to neutralize white and Hispanic Republicans.  That's all I can ever make heads or tails out of these cases, and is the realpolitic of recent VRA decisions.

Packing minorities into a compact district is bad because nonsensical reasons - even when geographical compactness should dictate a compact district, say, in the Rio Grande Valley or within municipal boundaries.  Not packing enough minorities into a district is bad when not enough Hispanics bother to vote the way the courts want them to - i.e. for Democrats.  

VRA jurisprudence is a mess.

"Neutralizing" white and hispanic Republicans IS the main point the courts are trying to accomplish.    The Republicans hold 25 of 36 seats with 57% of the vote, that's about a 13% discrepancy.   The vast majority of those being voted in by Anglo majorities (Probably all but two I think...?).    Minorities in Texas are under-represented in Texas,  no matter how you slice it, and the maps are almost entirely to blame.

Minorities are underepresented only if you live in a fantasy world where all minorities, particularly Texas Hispanics, must vote for Democrats - if they bother to vote at all.  It's not the Republicans' fault that Democrat-leaning Hispanics often don't bother to show up to vote, or when they do, don't unilaterally block vote the way you want them to.  All they have to be given is the opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice - and in a 60% CVAP Hispanic district, they certainly have that if they block vote and show up to the polls.  That they don't block vote the way the courts and Democrats want them to shouldn't be grounds to overturn the district in a rational, sane world.  The alternative would be to pack the districts with even more Hispanics, but the courts would likely overturn that as impermissible packing - which is even greater nonsense, especially when Democrats tend to self-pack themselves into urban areas to begin with. 

I maintain that even without the VRA-required racial gerrymandering, Republicans would have an advantage compared to the vote percentage in almost any non-Democatic gerrymandered Texas map, even a neutral one.  Democrats are self-packed into urban areas.
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: District Court, Splitting 2-1, Finds Texas Congressional Districts Violate VRA on: March 16, 2017, 11:52:29 pm
Replacing one poor CD for another, hosting the Pubs on their own petard. It's one thing to strike down the plot to neutalize white Dems in Travis. It's another to require something else, that I don't think comports with prior SCOTUS precedent, and is just not justified on public policy grounds, and certainly if the alternative comports with good redistricting principles, and is obviously not out to screw minorities. The court did mention the impermissible Pub intent, that it found. Minorities should not be used as pawns, splitting them up, to neutralize white Dems.

No.  Best I can tell, the courts would rather minorities be used as pawns to neutralize white and Hispanic Republicans.  That's all I can ever make heads or tails out of these cases, and is the realpolitic of recent VRA decisions.

Packing minorities into a compact district is bad because nonsensical reasons - even when geographical compactness should dictate a compact district, say, in the Rio Grande Valley or within municipal boundaries.  Not packing enough minorities into a district is bad when not enough Hispanics bother to vote the way the courts want them to - i.e. for Democrats.  

VRA jurisprudence is a mess.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: March 16, 2017, 07:31:29 pm
The spreadsheet at the link is to the full spreadsheet I usually use to sift through the raw data for the nuggets like age, sex, time, date, urban/suburban/rural status, income, response type and geographical region.

There were some other trends compared to my poll:

The 55-65s and 65+s in this poll went to Gianforte, unlike in my poll, where the 55-65s were one of Quist's best groups.

The suburban/rural divide persists, with Quist winning suburbanites by 10 and Gianforte leading among rural residents by 15 (both, unweighted).  Again, there were too few urbanites for any meaningful analysis.

The poll again shows that most Montanans are solidly middle class, in the $25K-$50K range.  Higher incomes tended to be more Gianforte, but there are far too few respondents to be sure.

I also break things down by time on the spreadsheet.  As Castro said, Gianforte had a large lead in the beginning, which dwindled at the end.

This poll makes more intuitive sense than mine, even with the lower sample size.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tax Returns Coming Tonight? on: March 14, 2017, 09:49:45 pm
So then why did he say he would release his tax returns and Romney was "a choke artist" who "lost because he failed to release his tax returns"

I don't recall him saying that about Romney.  In fact, I recall him saying just the opposite - that Romney was a chump for releasing his returns - which Romney actually did.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: March 14, 2017, 09:45:24 pm
That would probably require a Democratic governor to get elected in 2020, because in the hypothetical scenario of Montana getting a second district, a Republican could just force him out East and draw a new Western district. I'm skeptical of a Democrat keeping the mansion for 20 straight years, and assuming Bullock challenges Daines and Quist is still in office, that'd be asking to send 2 Democrats to Washington and 1 to Helena. That's a tough sell to a state that voted for Trump by 20%.

Congressmen don't technically need to live in the district they represent, just the state.  And he could always move into the new district, anyway. 

I suppose that a Republican could gerrymander two clear Republican-leaning districts, though.  But the power of incumbency is sometimes stronger than district lines, anyway.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tax Returns Coming Tonight? on: March 14, 2017, 09:39:12 pm
what would be your proposal then, cinyc, why trump goes out of his way to create a castle of complex lies to prevent his tax records from going public, if they are - in fact - without new knowledge?

Some are under audit, which means he and the IRS disagree on a tax position he took.  Complex tax issues usually aren't litigated in the court of public opinion.  And Trump has said he doesn't want to release his returns until the audit is done, if at all.  How is that a "castle of complex lies"?  

"Castles of complex lies" aren't necessary to keep tax records from going public.  It is solely up to the taxpayer to release them.  The IRS releasing them to most people is a crime.

This lie has been debunked so many times...either way you can release tax returns under audit, Nixon did it

I doubt Trump is lying that some of his tax returns are under audit.  And just because you can release tax returns under audit doesn't mean that you must.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tax Returns Coming Tonight? on: March 14, 2017, 09:33:53 pm
what would be your proposal then, cinyc, why trump goes out of his way to create a castle of complex lies to prevent his tax records from going public, if they are - in fact - without new knowledge?

Some are under audit, which means he and the IRS disagree on a tax position he took.  Complex tax issues usually aren't litigated in the court of public opinion.  And Trump has said he doesn't want to release his returns until the audit is done, if at all.  How is that a "castle of complex lies"? 

"Castles of complex lies" aren't necessary to keep tax records from going public.  It is solely up to the taxpayer to release them.  The IRS releasing them to most people is a crime.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tax Returns Coming Tonight? on: March 14, 2017, 09:19:59 pm
Probably will hurt the Democrats, in the short run, as Trumpy's base gets wound up. I think there's definitely some sort of smoking gun but Trump's base (you among them, it appears) won't accept that until there's concrete proof and will continue to idolize the God-Emperor.   

In the long run, Trumpy's got a lot of things to hide.

Some smoking gun where?  Tax returns don't show as much as you or the grandstanding Democrats like Chuck Schumer think they do - particularly when candidates who release returns generally don't release all the schedules and attachments, but just the first few pages.  And the fact that Trump did everything he could to minimize his tax bill is already known.  It's not going to change anyone's mind at this point.

Again, you don't need tax returns to learn about Trump's real estate dealings.  Some of it is a matter of public record.  Some of it has been reported on by the media in the past.  Heck, Trump probably details some of it in his books.  It might not be as easy to figure out than if he just released his complete returns, but with some work, it can be learned without them.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tax Returns Coming Tonight? on: March 14, 2017, 08:47:29 pm
Well, back to playing Overwatch.

No, this 2005 return is helpful. It showed us that most of his income ($150 million) came from the sale of two properties in Manhattan and San Fran, according to Patrick LaForge, on Twitter - to Hong Kong investors. Which means only one thing, the later returns will show a much more heavy reliance on foreign investors especially since he started leasing Trump Tower deals around the world post-2005.


And?  Selling or leasing high-value properties to Hong Kong investors is neither unusual nor illegal.  Plus, you really don't need tax returns to "prove" "reliance on foreign investors", whatever that means - which again, even if true, wouldn't be unusual or illegal.  Property sales, in particular, are usually a matter of public record.  Deeds get publicly recorded.  Anyone who knows how can look them up.

This will backfire on Maddow and the Democrats.  The Trump spin will be that someone is likely illegally leaking Donald Trump's tax returns without his consent.  Oh - and he made millions and paid his taxes, so so what?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: March 14, 2017, 05:25:43 pm
What was the sample size of Western vs. Eastern Montana in your poll?

209/116. 

The West/East divide persisted from the start.  And it always was that stark or very close to it.
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