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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 6 weeks after election day: 1 state (NY) still has no final results out on: December 15, 2014, 07:42:07 pm
It doesn't surprise me that New York is the laggard.  The state board of elections just got into the 20th century with a election-night results website this year.  Maybe they'll get around to certifying the final results more quickly next year.  Baby steps.
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: December 2014 At-large Senate Election on: December 12, 2014, 11:18:33 pm
REPUBLIC OF ATLASIA - In Dave We Trust
Official Ballot
AT-LARGE SENATE


[5] Bacon King of Oceania
The People's Party



[1] Cris of Kansas
Federalist Party



[2] JohanusCalvinusLibertas of Indiana
Federalist Party



[  ] Lief of Vermont
Labor Party



[4] Polnut of Massachusetts
The People's Party



[6] SomebodyWhoExists of Quebec
Labor Party



[3] Write-in: Maxwell


[  ] None of the above
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: December Assembly Elections on: December 12, 2014, 11:16:31 pm
Official Ballot
Northeast Assembly
To fill five seats

[6] Altsomn Josef Stmarken (Labor - Maine)
[5] Barnes (Labor - Maine)
[1] Thomas from NJ (Federalist - New Jersey)
[2] Write-in: Winfield
[3] Write-in: Napoleon
[4] Write-in: Dallasfan
[  ] None of the Above
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Protecting People From Explosives Amendment on: December 12, 2014, 10:18:19 pm
Nay
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Game Moderation Reform Amendment II on: November 27, 2014, 09:43:42 pm
Nay
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Corporal punishment by county school district, 2009-2011 on: November 20, 2014, 01:01:37 am
The Census Bureau does have shapefiles of school district maps in each state.  They are in three different categories (unified, elementary and secondary), so you might have to make two maps - one for unified and elementary and one for unified and secondary.  But it would be possible to make a nationwide map if you really wanted to do so.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NRCC, American Crossroads & AAN caught coordinating via tweets on: November 17, 2014, 09:51:54 pm
Those groups coordinate all the time, even though it isn't legal, they find ways to get around the rules. Although, it is sloppy to coordinate on Twitter where everyone can see.

Well, that's kind of the point.  Putting information on Twitter is public for anyone to see, and not a private coordination with a particular party.
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: November 2014 Special At-large Senate Election on: November 15, 2014, 07:23:12 pm
REPUBLIC OF ATLASIA - In Dave We Trust
Official Ballot
AT-LARGE SENATE (to fill one vacancy)


[4] Bacon King of Oceania
The People's Party



[1] Cris of Kansas
Federalist Party



[2] Poirot of New York
Independent



[5] SomebodyWhoExists of Quebec
Labor Party



[3] rpryor03 of New Jersey
National Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 15, 2014, 12:06:56 am
AP has called Alaska Gov for Walker.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 Alaska Governor Election Day Precinct Vote Maps on: November 13, 2014, 09:38:21 pm
Which ones are still out, and where did you get these maps?

The absentee and questioned vote is still out from all over the state.  The in-precinct vote is in.  Walker should win.  His vote percentage slightly increased when Alaska counted some absentees, questioned and the remaining early vote on Tuesday.

I got the Alaska shapefile and election day vote data from the Alaska Division of Elections' website.  I import the vote data into a spreadsheet and use a formula to shade each precinct or county equivalent to the winner by percentage (by basically creating a new column with the highest percentage won, then adding 1 to Walker's percentage in any precinct he won so that it will be colored green in my map program).  I then save the spreadsheet in a format that can be read by a mapping program called MapWindow GIS, and use the Atlas Color Scheme to color the precincts for the winner and percentage.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / 2014 Alaska Governor Election Day Precinct Vote Maps on: November 13, 2014, 09:23:49 pm
Below are maps of the election day in-precinct vote for 2014 Alaska Governor's race.  Note that this does not reflect the early, absentee or questioned votes, which are not fully in yet and are only allocated by House District, not precinct.  The Independent/Democratic ticket of Walker/Mallott is currently leading the Republican ticket of Parnell/Sullivan 47.9%-46.3%.  The election day in-precinct vote was won by Walker/Mallott by a much closer 47.2%-46.8% margin.

Note that the white lines are precinct boundaries, the black lines House District boundaries, and the yellow lines county equivalent boundaries.

Statewide


As always, the statewide map emphasizes the sparsely populated, rural bush precincts at the expense of the areas of the state where most people actually live.  Here are precinct maps of the in-precinct election day vote in the 4 largest municipalities:

Anchorage


Walker won the Anchorage election day in-precinct vote 48.5%-46.3%.  He made inroads into areas of South Anchorage that usually vote Republican.  

Mat-Su Borough


Parnell won the Mat-Su election day in-precinct vote 56.8%-36.9%.  Like most Republicans, he won all Mat-Su precincts except Talkeetna.   His margins were slightly off compared to most Republican candidates, though.

Fairbanks North Star Borough


Walker won the Fairbanks North Star Borough election day in-precinct vote 49.2%-45.6%.  As is typical for Republicans in Fairbanks, Parnell was strongest in the North Pole area and the eastern part of the borough.  Walker was strongest in the areas around the University of Alaska-Fairbanks and the western part of the borough.

Juneau


Walker won the Juneau election day in-precinct vote 55.5%-40.2%.  Parnell ran ahead of Republican Senate candidate Dan Sullivan, winning all of Juneau's suburban Mendenhall Valley.

By County Equivalent


For completeness' sake, here's a map of the 2014 Alaska Governor election day in-precinct results by county equivalent.   Absentees, early and questioned votes were not allocated to the county equivalents.  All of the vote is not in yet and allocating those votes to some county equivalents is an inexact science because those votes are broken down by House District instead of by precinct.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 13, 2014, 07:50:48 pm
I can post an Alaska precinct-level map like I did for the Senate race if anyone is interested.

Yes, please. I would do it if you don't want to.

Okay.  I'll put it in a separate post so we can more easily find it later. 

Once I have the data in some comprehensible form and the shapefiles, it's not that hard to make maps.  It's not like I individually color the precincts.  MapWindow GIS does that for me.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 13, 2014, 06:13:00 pm
Parnell lost Anchorage and Fairbanks-North Star Borough? Wow. How close were they?

Walker won the election day in-precinct vote in the Municipality of Anchorage 48.5%-46.3%.  That doesn't surprise me because Anchorage is usually the bellwether for Alaska.  Whoever wins the state usually wins the city.

Walker won the election day in-precinct vote in Fairbanks North Star Borough 49.2%-45.6%.  Walker was born there, but spent most of his political career in Valdez, which is why you see the Valdez-Cordova Census Area flipped from its normal Republican roots.

Thanks cinyc for that great Alaska map.

Btw, there are really people living and voting in/on the North Slope?

Yes.  The majority of voters live in two Barrow precincts, Barrow and Browerville.  The Anaktuvuk Pass precinct has a relatively high population, but I think that's because the oil hub of Deadhorse/Prudhoe Bay is within its borders and some workers were classified by the 2010 Census as living there, even though almost all actually live and are registered to vote someplace else.  There's a Prudhoe Bay absentee voting location that stacks ballots from all 40 of Alaska's House Districts to facilitate voting from the workers, who usually work long shifts two weeks at a time.

I can post an Alaska precinct-level map like I did for the Senate race if anyone is interested.

Note: Edited to reflect an overcount in the write-in vote on my spreadsheet.  I don't think it changed much - perhaps Parnell going over the 50% threshold in Petersburg - but a revised map will be put up later.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 12, 2014, 08:23:26 pm


Note that this is of the election day in-precinct vote only.  Absentees, early and questioned votes were not allocated to the county equivalents.  Those votes are not all in yet, and allocating them to county equivalents is an inexact science.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Races County Map on: November 12, 2014, 04:19:19 pm
Why is it so difficult to gather data on Alaska county results?

Because Alaska and the AP don't break down results by Alaska county equivalents (Alaska technically doesn't have counties).   To make matters worse, only the election day in-precinct vote is broken down by precinct, and the absentee, early and questioned votes, which are only reported by Alaska House District that cross county equivalent lines, often break differently than the election day in-precinct vote.  Allocating those votes is an inexact science, especially in the smaller rural Census Areas that are used as a proxy for counties.  Even some precincts cross county equivalent boundaries, though you usually can allocate them to one county equivalent or the other by assuming most of the voters live near the main named village.

I can make a map of the Alaska election day in-precinct vote.  I tend to use yellow to represent independent candidates, though, since it's difficult to differentiate between green and blue at lower levels of support in the Atlas color scheme.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 09:10:00 pm
Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  5m5 minutes ago
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%

Sullivan actually increased his lead from 8,149 to 8,784.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 06:33:26 pm
When will they start counting the rest of the alaska ballots?

They are counting the early and absentee votes right now.  Some regional elections centers have been counting since 1PM Eastern/9AM local.  Anchorage has been counting since 5PM Eastern.  I wouldn't expect to have any results until at least 9PM Eastern, which is 5PM Alaska time, unless some partial count leaks out earlier.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 05:34:06 pm
Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.



According to the Arizona Elections Results Website, McSally is now up by 133.  This is supposedly with everything in but a handful of provisional ballots in Pima County, 200-250 countywide which all won't be in the district.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 01:47:51 pm
News from Alaska?

According to Alaska Public Radio, they just started counting in some places at 1pm Eastern. They're not starting counting in Anchorage until 5pm Eastern.  It will take a while. They are counting the areas with no election night absentees reported first.  And they're probably not going to get through all the absentees today.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mapping the 2014 Alaska Election Day Senate Precinct Vote on: November 10, 2014, 01:56:38 am
This is really interesting, thanks for compiling these maps. Any thoughts on when the race will be called?

Tuesday, if the absentees turn out to be as favorable to Sullivan as some media analyses have suggested.

As always, great work. I love that you post these both here and on RRH!

In opposite colors.  The Atlas Color Scheme causes more work!

I just crunched the Gubernatorial data.  The governor's race broke differently than the Senate race.  Parnell (R) was more competitive in the bush.  And Walker (I) actually won the election-day in-precinct vote in Fairbanks and Anchorage.  But Parnell won more precincts than Sullivan in Juneau's Mendenhall Valley. 

I'll probably post those maps in the Gubernatorial forum tomorrow.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What happened in NY-25? on: November 09, 2014, 11:55:26 pm
This is in the wrong forum, by the way.  You may get more responses in the Congressional Elections forum.

Republicans did well upstate.  It caught the wave.   NY-24, which Maffei lost big, is D+5.  NY-25 is D+7.  So, logically, it would be the next to fall in a wave.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-Sen: Bruce Braley criticizes Grassley as ‘a farmer from Iowa’ on: November 09, 2014, 10:08:34 pm
Did this gaffe in and of itself have much of an impact? Or was it more like a bellwether of Braley's ineptness as a candidate? Or something else?

It polled as Braley's biggest campaign mistake in a question Selzer asked respondents in her Iowa poll.  So, yes, the gaffe had a big impact.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 09, 2014, 09:42:47 pm
Are there still more votes to count in NY-25?

Yes.  Domestic absentees can trickle in until Tuesday and will be counted on Wednesday.  I'm also not sure if they have counted all of the provisional ballots yet. 

Unfortunately, Slaughter isn't going to get slaughtered here, though.  Her margin is relatively comfortable.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Mapping the 2014 Alaska Election Day Senate Precinct Vote on: November 09, 2014, 01:43:21 am
Republican Dan Sullivan is currently ahead of Democrat Mark Begich by 3.6 points, 48.7%-45.1%.  He won the election day in-precinct vote by a slightly larger 4.7 points, 49.1%-44.4%.  Below is a map of the election day in-precinct vote by precinct.  Because of Alaska's large size, however, it emphasizes rural bush areas at the expense of smaller, more populated urban precincts.  It also doesn't show the full picture of the Alaska vote, as Alaska reports early, absentee and questioned votes by House District instead of by precinct.  Sullivan won the absentee votes recorded so far by a slightly better 6.9 point margin, 51.7%-44.8%.  However, this doesn't include any absentees from the heavily Democratic urban Juneau House District, the heavily Democratic Bush HDs 37-40, or the heavily Republican Kenai Peninsula HDs, or absentees received just before or after election day, so the final absentee percentage may vary.  Begich won the in-person early vote recorded so far by 8.7 points, 52.6%-43.8%.  This also doesn't include any early votes from some areas or early votes cast just before election day, though there are far fewer unrecorded early votes than absentee votes.

Note that the yellow lines depict boundaries of the current Alaska county equivalents:



Sullivan lost the election day in-person precinct vote in most rural bush precincts - big, especially in the Native Alaskan-heavy HDs 37-40.  He compensated by winning many precincts in the exurban Mat-Su Valley and the Kenai Peninsula by large margins.  

The yellow precinct in Southwest Alaska, 38-812 Chefornak, was supposedly won by a minor candidate.  Given the blue nature of the neighboring precincts, his votes were probably transposed with Begich's, and Begich should net another 170 votes.

Unfortunately, there is no 2008 precinct shapefile available, so a direct comparison to the 2008 result statewide isn't possible.  Plus, precinct and House District boundaries have changed since then due to redistricting.  Below, you will find a direct comparison on the only level possible - by county equivalent, along with side-by-side precinct maps of the major inhabited areas for which shapefiles are available.

Election Day In-Precinct Vote By County Equivalent
Alaska doesn't have counties, like the lower 48.  Instead, it broken up by the Census Bureau into municipalities, boroughs and Census Areas.  The Census Areas generally are large geographically but contain few residents.  Below is a map showing the winner of the election day in-person precinct vote by county equivalent.  Note that the absentee and early vote reported so far was NOT allocated to the county equivalents.  It is too early to do so and allocating those votes is an inexact science, anyway:



And here is a map of the swing in each county equivalent from 2008.  Swing was calculated by subtracting the 2014 margin from the 2008 margin:



The in-person election day vote statewide swung 1.5 points to Sullivan.  Anchorage actually swung to Begich by 2.3 points.  Most heavily Native Alaskan bush Census Areas swung to Begich even harder -  Dillingham, for example, swung by 42.4 points.  Sullivan benefited from swings in traditionally Republican areas like the Kenai Peninsula (15.3 points), Mat-Su Valley (12.5 points), and in the whiter areas of Southeast Alaska.

Anchorage Precinct-Level Comparison


In general, the two maps are pretty similar.  Compared to 2008, Begich made inroads in the election-day precinct vote in areas south of Midtown, including Sand Lake and Dimond.  Sullivan's Marine background helped him flip the two military base precincts north of downtown.  He also won areas in and around the Anchorage suburb of Eagle River to the east of those military base precincts by larger margins.

Mat-Su Precinct-Level Comparison


The Republican candidate won most Mat-Su precincts in 2008 and 2014.  Sullivan managed to flip the Sutton precinct and won most other precincts by a wider margin than Stevens in 2008.  Talkeetna remained Begich's column both years.
 
Fairbanks North Star Precinct-Level Comparison


Sullivan flipped the Eielson Air Force Base precinct, winning 84% of the vote.  Otherwise, the Fairbanks 2014 map looks largely like the Fairbanks 2008 map, with Begich winning western areas of the Borough and Sullivan cleaning up in the areas near and around North Pole.  Overall, the election day in-person vote swung to Sullivan by 5 points.

Juneau Precinct-Level Comparison


Unlike Stevens, Sullivan managed to win one Juneau precinct in its suburban Mendenhall Valley, Mendenhall No. 3.  The other Mendhenhall Valley precincts were close, with Begich held under 50%.  As usual, Sullivan got crushed in the more urban areas of Juneau.  Overall, the Juneau in-person election day vote swung to Sullivan by 7.6 points.  What's unclear is whether this was due to more Democrats voting early or by absentee, leaving Republicans to vote on election day.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 08, 2014, 04:13:15 pm
It will be interesting to see if the swing in the Southeast holds of you allocate the early and absentee votes.  Juneau has a lot of remaining absentees.  It might be that Republicans waited until election day to vote.

Here's a chart of the swing for each county equivalent.  Positive numbers are pro-Begich.  Negative numbers are pro-Sullivan.  Sullivan really cleaned up in Mat-Su and the Kenai Peninsula compared to Stevens in 2008.  And there are more votes there than in the bush county equivalents that swung heavily to Begich.  Anchorage swung slightly to Begich.



One note: Petersburg in the chart is for the old Petersburg Census Area.  Petersburg became a borough last year.  The Census Bureau finally allocated the outlying portions of the Census Area that were not included in the borough to Prince of Wales-Hyder some time this year.   Petersburg Borough took part of the Hoonah-Angoon Census area, leaving a triangle between its northern border and Juneau's southern border.  Their 2014 U.S. County shapefile reflects the new boundaries.  Eventually, I'll update the charts and map to reflect this new geography.

I don't think many people live in the Hoonah-Angoon triangler, but they are included in the Petersburg precinct, unless the state changed precinct boundaries to match.  Precincts crossing borough or census area lines isn't unheard of in Alaska, so I doubt they did.  Most of the Kake and all of the Port Alexander precincts were moved to the Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area, including the portion of the Kake precinct that includes the village where you'd expect most people to live.  As with other precincts that cross lines, I will allocate Kake to Prince of Wales-Hyder based on the location of the precinct.  
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