Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 24, 2014, 02:05:11 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 312
1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New Election Lab forecast suggests 86 percent chance that GOP wins Senate on: July 15, 2014, 06:40:01 pm
Republicans have a better chance of winning Iowa than North Carolina

yea this is totally wrong. I mean, Tillis is incompetent, but he isn't calling for the Presidents impeachment.

Tillis isn't incompetent.  And Hagan isn't quite as bad a candidate as "Farmer" Braley, the man who threatens to sue because his neighbor is housing chickens used to rehabilitate disabled children.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: California Comptroller recount for primary could go past general election on: July 14, 2014, 09:34:49 pm
Perez should just stand down and build a stronger profile in the assembly. In the end this is all just a run for governor or the Senate anyway.

Perez should do nothing of the sort.  Why should it take 5 months to recount ballots?  That's a scandal in itself.  Additional staff should be hired, if necessary.

This recount is not even statewide, which is crap.  No recount should be anything but jurisdiction-wide.  Partial recounts of a candidate's favorable counties should be avoided.  It treats some voters as more special than others, worthy of having their votes recounted but not others, violating equal protection.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DoJ investigates anti-Obama float in Nebraska on: July 14, 2014, 06:58:11 pm
Any strike against hillbillys is a victory.

I guess I forgot about that part of the Constitution where "hillbillies" aren't entitled to Freedom of Speech and the government must investigate their parade floats lest they offend anyone with delicate sensibilities.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DoJ investigates anti-Obama float in Nebraska on: July 14, 2014, 03:59:59 pm
What's the "Community Relations Service Team"?

Quote from: DOJ Website
The Community Relations Service (CRS) helps local communities address community conflicts and tensions arising from differences of race, color, and national origin. CRS also helps communities develop strategies to prevent and respond to violent hate crimes committed on the basis of actual or perceived race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion or disability.

Basically, the thin-skinned Justice Department is equating showing the Obama Presidential Library as an outhouse as racist, which is isn't.   (And even if it were, the DoJ shouldn't be investigating something that's still not a crime, but free speech).  I doubt the Bush DoJ's CRS investigated when a cartoonist depicted the Bush Presidential Library as an outhouse or a parade had a float of a cowboy-dressed Bush sitting down in an outhouse.  

5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DoJ investigates anti-Obama float in Nebraska on: July 14, 2014, 03:39:22 pm
Oh no! Someone dared mock the President with toilet humor!  Quick! Send in the Feds to investigate!  Who cares if no actual crime has been committed?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AK Congressional Races 2014 on: July 10, 2014, 10:20:17 pm
There's an article on the Alaska Dispatch News website that compares Republican primary polling done by Alaska and "Outside" pollsters.  The Alaska pollsters all show Sullivan in the lead, but only by a few points.  "Outside" (a.k.a. Lower 48) pollsters show Sullivan comfortably ahead.  

Polling Alaska is tricky, due to, among other things, problems reaching voters in the bush.  Are the Alaska pollsters better at polling Alaska than Outside pollsters, or are they as seemingly useless as the Michigan pollsters when polling their state?  I guess we should stay tuned.

BTW - Alaska Dispatch News is the successor website to the Anchorage Daily News' site.  In what may become a trend in newspaper publishing, the internet-only Alaska Dispatch purchased the print and web-based Anchorage Daily News from McClatchy a few months ago.  They combined their websites earlier this week, under the Alaska Dispatch News banner.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is it easy or hard to live in your county? on: July 02, 2014, 06:23:38 pm
Alaska doesn't have counties.

Alaska has boroughs, municipalities and census areas that act as de facto counties when breaking data down geographically.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Quinnipiac University Poll: Obama worst president since WWII on: July 02, 2014, 06:13:38 pm
I believe that 33% of Americans think Obama is the worst president. I certainly don't believe that statistic is worth the sensationalist headlines. Isn't that only a little bit higher than the percentage of birthers?

Also, as already pointed out, Dubya and Nixon had to compete for Democratic/left-leaning votes whereas the right wingers had an easy choice.

Nixon was President a long time ago.  Anyone under 40 wasn't born or doesn't have many memories of the Nixon years.

And if 30-40 year old presidencies are fair game, Obama had to compete with Jimmy Carter for Republican/right-leaning votes.  Carter is still is one of the worst, least effective, jokes of a President since World War II.  He had weak foreign policy during a time of high gas prices, high unemployment, an alien invasion and general malaise.  Sound familiar?
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: General Election on: June 26, 2014, 06:18:26 pm
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but Deus's vote seems to have been cast after the official close of the poll at 11:59 PM EST on 22 June.

The voting booth was opened at 2:33AM instead of midnight.  If it impacts the election results and you want to sue, it would be a question for the CJO to answer - if a voting booth is opened late, does the booth remain open for 72 hours or until the normal end of the voting period?  I don't think there has been a case about this in the Northeast.

I haven't looked at the results closely, but I think Bacon Bacon gets to the quota before Dr. Cynic anyway even if Deus' vote doesn't count.  I lose a vote in my quixotic write-in quest to become governor, though.  Not that it matters.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 26, 2014, 03:33:10 pm
    What I'd like to see are some precinct level data, such as what was the primary vote in some all black precincts, and then what was the runoff vote there.  Any ideas about where to find this?

The Mississippi Secretary of State's website has precinct level data for the 2014 primary.  They will likely have it for the runoff as well, eventually.   Unfortunately, it will likely be in a terrible pdf format for each county that's not readily imported into Excel.  Even the by-county official results had to be manually imported into Excel.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is McDaniel going to run as write-in candidate? on: June 25, 2014, 07:40:57 pm
But, at least in most states, data is kept as to whether each voter took a republican or democratic ballot, which amounts to the same thing. Of course what the person you're responding to is suggesting would never happen, but it's worth knowing that ballots are recorded.

No it doesn't.  Voting in a primary is totally different than voting in a general election.  It's possible that someone voted in the 2008 Democratic primary for Hillary because they hated Obama and never voted for him or any other Democrat in the general election.  Is that person a "Democrat" or a "Republican"?  And then there's the problem that the 2012 Mississippi Democratic Primary was sparsely attended, with fewer than 100,000 votes cast.  Obama ran unopposed.  The only major race was the Senate primary. 

Plus, even if you consider voting in a primary as proxy for party registration, even in states with party registration, people can easily change parties over a 2-year period.  Thus, there's no way to legitimately say that someone who was a "Democrat" in 2012 shouldn't be considered a "Republican" in 2014.  People who voted in the 2014 Democratic primary were already barred from voting in the runoff.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 25, 2014, 01:06:48 am
So far (with one precinct yet to report in Hinds County), MS-R Senate runoff turnout was 117.4% of primary turnout.  Here's a relative heat map showing where runoff turnout lagged or exceeded 117.4% of primary turnout.  Red indicates runoff turnout exceeding the statewide average; blue indicates runoff turnout lagging the statewide average.  Gradation is in 5-point increments up to +/- 40 points:



Runoff Turnout was less than 100% of primary turnout in Chocktaw, George, Hancock and Stone counties, three of which are in the southeastern part of the state.  This might not be final - over 5,200 votes were added to the official SoS tally versus the last AP tally of the primary.

Turnout in the runoff so far is 127.3% of the 2012 Republican Presidential primary turnout.  Here's a map of relative turnout from the runoff to the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary.  again, red means runoff turnout was greater than in 2012; blue means runoff turnout was less than 2012; green means runoff turnout was more than 100 points greater than 2012:



Finally, a county map of how much better or worse McDaniel performed in the runoff versus the primary.  Red means McDaniel performed better in the runoff than the primary; blue means McDaniel outperformed in the primary.  Gradation is in 5-point increments up to +/-40.  The primary vote percentage was calculated by ignoring votes for Carey:



Edited to add: I updated the maps to show the "final" AP unofficial results.  I also corrected one typo in my official Lowndes County results, which changed the gradation a shade in the relative turnout map.

Runoff turnout is now 118% of Republican primary turnout and 128.1% of 2012 Republican Presidential Primary turnout - and it might go up a bit more when the final official results are in.  Runoff turnout is now more than 100% of primary turnout in Chocktaw County.  They either counted more votes there or there was a typo in the last batch of AP results.  The three counties with less than primary-level turnout are all in Southeastern Misssippi.  The contested congressional primary probably raised turnout there.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:58:48 pm
AP hasn't called the Independence Party primary in NY-18, which featured Maloney, the incumbent Democrat versus Hayworth, the Republican who used to hold the seat before the last cycle.  With all precincts reporting, Hayworth is leading 53-47, which, if holds, would give her a third line on the ballot in November.

AP is probably cautious about making a projection in a low-turnout primary when there could be absentees.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:51:27 pm
Back in NY-13, AP hasn't called it and Espaillat isn't conceding because __________.

AP likes to be 99.99% sure before calling a race.  What's out is in Inwood and Marble Hill.  Espaillat is winning Inwood.  Marble Hill is a huge question mark.

Plus, absentees haven't been counted yet.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:33:18 pm
Had this been a closed primary, Cochran would have lost. He begged black voters to save him and it worked. Cochran probably narrowly lost registered Republicans and white voters.

There is no such thing as a registered Republican in Mississippi.  Therefore, there is no way to close a primary in Mississippi.

Cochran won by significantly upping turnout in his strongholds.  Turnout in McDaniel's strongholds in the Pine Belt was pretty much maxed out.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:16:40 pm
No idea why they are not calling this for Rangel

I don't know whether the AP looks at precinct-level results when making projections.  On the county level, too much of the Bronx is still out and Manhattan results have been variable, depending on location.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:08:13 pm
Rangel's approx. 300 vote margin is due to 2 adjacent Bronx precincts on the north edge of his district. Lotsa votes and he carried them with close to 90% of the vote. He's not doing that well in black Harlem precincts!

What gives? Do those neighborhoods hate Dominicans or something?

I think you're talking about Tracy Towers in the Bronx, which is a middle-income subsidized housing development.  I'd have to check the census to be sure, but I think it's heavily African-American.  This article says it has a large Ghanian population.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 09:48:35 pm
Guys, there's still about 2% left in Jones and 12% left in DeSoto. It's not over yet and McDaniel can squeak by at the last minute. 95% of the vote is in with only a 4,000 vote difference, and even if Cochran narrowly wins this, McDaniel will certainly bring this result to court.

I see your DeSoto and Jones and raise you 4 Hinds precincts, 2 Harrison precincts and the entire Holmes County - all areas currently going or expected to go to Cochran.

It's over.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 09:46:18 pm
These numbers don't include the absentee ballots, so we may not know the result tonight.

I thought the Mississippi absentees are supposed to be counted with the election day results.  That's what was reported during the primary.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 09:36:06 pm
Is any site doing a map with results for MS?

The Clarion-Ledger has one:

http://www.clarionledger.com/longform/news/politics/2014/06/24/election-results-gop-runoff/11330947/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 09:34:47 pm
Jones County turnout is now running ahead of the primary (107% with 1 precinct remaining), but McDaniel is doing about 3.5 points worse there than the two-candidate vote percent in the primary.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 09:11:06 pm
A tale of two strongholds:

Hinds County has 83% of its precincts reporting, but is already reporting 118% of the number of votes cast in the primary.  Cochran is winning those votes by 7 points better than he did on election day.  So far, turnout up.  Cochran up.

In contrast, Jones County has 68% of its precincts reporting but with only 61% of the number of votes cast in the primary.  And Cochran is doing 5 points better there than in the primary.  So far, turnout down.  McDaniel down.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 08:54:08 pm
So far, McDaniel is running about 5 points behind his primary tally in Jones with turnout relatively down a bit.  Though, of course, we don't know which precincts are out.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 08:52:06 pm
MS-Sen: AP with 72.7% of precincts in and Cochran at 50.9%, McDaniel at 49.1%.

That's with about 2/3rds of Jones County reporting.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 08:32:20 pm
Looks like McDaniel is flipping Hancock County; only 6 precincts left and he's up by 6.

Even with only a handful of precincts left, it's really hard to project any winner of the county until everything is in.  Precinct results were extremely variable in the primary - some heavy Cochran, some heavy McDaniel.

There are either some really big precincts remaining or turnout in the county is way down from the primary.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 312


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines