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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should the MSP airport Charles Lindbergh Terminal be renamed? on: February 21, 2017, 01:32:54 am
Also, given Charles Lindbergh was born in Michigan, not Minnesota, it would be more appropriate for Detroit (having the largest airport in that state) to name a terminal after him.  Or maybe an entire airport.  

The Lindbergh family was from Minnesota.  In fact, the famous aviator Charles Augustus Lindbergh's father, Charles August Lindbergh, was congressman for MN-06 from 1907-17.  So, even if the son wasn't born in Minnesota, he likely lived in Minnesota at times - though his mother and father were estranged, and Lindbergh appears to have grown up in multiple places, including Washington D.C.

They should name an airport after Earhart, though

They have - the Amelia Earhart Airport in Atchison, Kansas, her hometown.
----------
The whole idea of renaming of things because you don't like a person's politics is garbage.  Lindbergh may or may not have been a terrible human being, but he was an integral figure in the history of flight.  The MSP terminal is not named after him because of his politics, but because of his flying.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Michigan: The urban-rural divide writ large on: February 20, 2017, 11:11:46 pm
That Detroit gets 2 CDs instead of 1 is my major problem with the Muon2 rules.  If I were to re-write the rules, cities would have to remain intact if their population merits it, and breaking cities up would be considered a macro chop of the first order.  Why?  Keeping cities intact stops the problem in states like Illinois where Chicago has a disproportionate number of seats through bacon strip districts.  With a population of 689,000 Detroit doesn't deserve 2 seats in Congress.

A single district in Detroit would be like ~80% Black.   That wouldn't comply with the VRA.

If/when in the not-so-distant future the BVAP in SE Michigan falls below that which can support two CDs, the VRA won't be a barrier to the city Detroit getting the proportionate representation that it deserves, instead of the outsized representation that it doesn't.  Suburban interests deserve representation, too.

You still have the packing issue.  I am not sure there is an on point case on this. The precise legal issue is whether minority packing can be deemed legal where the rationale is that it keeps a subdivision whole, in this case Detroit.  In other words, say if Detroit were kept whole, the CBVAP of that CD is 70%, with the adjacent CD 15%, in lieu of say 50% CBVAP and 35%. In the context of a contiguous minority population crossing county or subdivision lines, even though it will entail additional chops, do you need to unpack a CD, in order to create a second adjacent CD with a substantial minority influence, that is the question. Maybe Muon2 has some knowledge on this matter. The law is in flux in this area. That much I know.

For the 2020 census, there probably will be enough contiguous blacks to still have 2 CD's able to elect candidates of their choice, perhaps 45% CBVAP in each CD. In that context, the odds are think are pretty high (at least more likely than not), that the courts will not be happy with a packed CD using the excuse that it keeps Detroit whole. That would certainly be the case, if it were possible to draw two 50% CBVAP CD's, but that will not be the case after the 2020 census. It will be closer to 45% CBVAP for each CD, maybe a tad higher, but not much.

I really don't understand how, in a 1 BVAP-majority district scenario, maximizing the number of people who are happy with their representative should be considered packing, but I admit that I am utterly baffled by much of the VRA-related jurisprudence.  If African-Americans want to be represented by an African-American in the Democratic primary and non-African Americans would prefer a different candidate, wouldn't it make more sense to maximize the number of African-Americans in that VRA district, not minimize them?

Given the state of current jurisprudence, you're probably right, though.  Even a facially neutral rule of keeping municipalities together would probably be overturned due to some contrived arguement about the rule having a discriminatory effect in extreme cases, like Detroit.

This is the exact same argument Republicans in courts make over and over and over again...

"We just wanted to cram as many Black people into that 1 district that we possibly could just so we could be sure they get the candidate they wanted!"

Neither you or them are fooling anyone,  you don't need anything above 50% BVAP for them to get the candidate of their choice.    It fails in courts over and over again but it's still tried time and time again anyway.

Again, I am assuming a world where there is only sufficient population for 1 >50% BVAP district.  If that's the case, what is the optimal solution?  Drawing a district with a high African-American population that will certainly vote for the African-American's candidate of choice, keeping municipalities whole, or splitting the SE Michigan African-American population into 2 <50% BVAP districts that might, but are not certain to do so? The first solution seems more optimal to me, but I doubt the courts will agree.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Michigan: The urban-rural divide writ large on: February 20, 2017, 02:36:40 pm
That Detroit gets 2 CDs instead of 1 is my major problem with the Muon2 rules.  If I were to re-write the rules, cities would have to remain intact if their population merits it, and breaking cities up would be considered a macro chop of the first order.  Why?  Keeping cities intact stops the problem in states like Illinois where Chicago has a disproportionate number of seats through bacon strip districts.  With a population of 689,000 Detroit doesn't deserve 2 seats in Congress.

A single district in Detroit would be like ~80% Black.   That wouldn't comply with the VRA.

If/when in the not-so-distant future the BVAP in SE Michigan falls below that which can support two CDs, the VRA won't be a barrier to the city Detroit getting the proportionate representation that it deserves, instead of the outsized representation that it doesn't.  Suburban interests deserve representation, too.

You still have the packing issue.  I am not sure there is an on point case on this. The precise legal issue is whether minority packing can be deemed legal where the rationale is that it keeps a subdivision whole, in this case Detroit.  In other words, say if Detroit were kept whole, the CBVAP of that CD is 70%, with the adjacent CD 15%, in lieu of say 50% CBVAP and 35%. In the context of a contiguous minority population crossing county or subdivision lines, even though it will entail additional chops, do you need to unpack a CD, in order to create a second adjacent CD with a substantial minority influence, that is the question. Maybe Muon2 has some knowledge on this matter. The law is in flux in this area. That much I know.

For the 2020 census, there probably will be enough contiguous blacks to still have 2 CD's able to elect candidates of their choice, perhaps 45% CBVAP in each CD. In that context, the odds are think are pretty high (at least more likely than not), that the courts will not be happy with a packed CD using the excuse that it keeps Detroit whole. That would certainly be the case, if it were possible to draw two 50% CBVAP CD's, but that will not be the case after the 2020 census. It will be closer to 45% CBVAP for each CD, maybe a tad higher, but not much.

I really don't understand how, in a 1 BVAP-majority district scenario, maximizing the number of people who are happy with their representative should be considered packing, but I admit that I am utterly baffled by much of the VRA-related jurisprudence.  If African-Americans want to be represented by an African-American in the Democratic primary and non-African Americans would prefer a different candidate, wouldn't it make more sense to maximize the number of African-Americans in that VRA district, not minimize them?

Given the state of current jurisprudence, you're probably right, though.  Even a facially neutral rule of keeping municipalities together would probably be overturned due to some contrived arguement about the rule having a discriminatory effect in extreme cases, like Detroit.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Michigan: The urban-rural divide writ large on: February 19, 2017, 11:39:18 pm
That Detroit gets 2 CDs instead of 1 is my major problem with the Muon2 rules.  If I were to re-write the rules, cities would have to remain intact if their population merits it, and breaking cities up would be considered a macro chop of the first order.  Why?  Keeping cities intact stops the problem in states like Illinois where Chicago has a disproportionate number of seats through bacon strip districts.  With a population of 689,000 Detroit doesn't deserve 2 seats in Congress.

A single district in Detroit would be like ~80% Black.   That wouldn't comply with the VRA.

If/when in the not-so-distant future the BVAP in SE Michigan falls below that which can support two CDs, the VRA won't be a barrier to the city Detroit getting the proportionate representation that it deserves, instead of the outsized representation that it doesn't.  Suburban interests deserve representation, too.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Michigan: The urban-rural divide writ large on: February 19, 2017, 12:57:19 pm
That Detroit gets 2 CDs instead of 1 is my major problem with the Muon2 rules.  If I were to re-write the rules, cities would have to remain intact if their population merits it, and breaking cities up would be considered a macro chop of the first order.  Why?  Keeping cities intact stops the problem in states like Illinois where Chicago has a disproportionate number of seats through bacon strip districts.  With a population of 689,000 Detroit doesn't deserve 2 seats in Congress.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Canadian Census on: February 18, 2017, 08:34:08 pm
I'm not sure whether it's really that much of a surprise, but the Calgary CMA passed the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA to become the fourth largest metro area in Canada... and the Edmonton CMA is nipping at Ottawa's heels at number 6, just 2,357 residents behind Ottawa. 

The Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA's population topped 500,000 for the first time (?) in 10th place.
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northern Voting Booth - February 2017 Regional Election + Referendums on: February 17, 2017, 02:12:57 pm
FOR CLASS I SENATE
ONE (1) Senator to be elected.

[2] R2D2/20RP12
Labor Party

[1] Write-In: ClarkKent



FOR GOVERNOR
ONE (1) Governor to be elected.

[2] Mike Wells
Labor Party

[1] Kingpoleon
United Alternative



FOR ASSEMBLY
FIVE (5) Assemblymen to be elected

[1] Spark498
Federalist Party

[2] JGibson
Democratic Party

[5] DrewMike87
Labor Party

[6] Lok1999
Labor Party

[3] CXSmith
Labor Party

[4] Wolverine22
Labor Party



REGIONAL NAME CHANGE

Question: Should the name of the Northern Region be changed?

[   ] Yes

[X] No

If you voted "YES", please read the following passage and select a new name for the Northern Region, should the first question pass. If you voted "NO", you may still preference a new name for the region, should the first question pass.



NAME CHANGE SUGGESTIONS

In accordance with the Regional Name Act of 2017, the citizens of the Northern Region proposed a variety of names to replace "North" as the name of the region. These proposals were debated by the Assembly, and the following three (3) names were chosen. Ppreferentially vote for the name suggestions as you would for a group of candidates for office.

[   ] FRANKLIN

[   ] LINCOLN

[   ] ATLANTIC UNION

[1] Write in: Northern Region

[2] Write in: The North

[3] Write in: North



CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

Please read the following proposed amendments to the Northern Constitution thoroughly!

"EXECUTIVE TIEBREAKING" AMENDMENT TO ARTICLE ONE OF THE NORTHERN CONSTITUTION

Quote
AN AMENDMENT TO THE NORTHERN REGIONAL CONSTITUTION

I. Article I of the Northern Constitution shall be amended to include the following:

Quote
9. In the event of a tie in a legislative vote, the Governor shall have the power to break the tie.

[   ] AYE
[X] NAY



"VOTER INTEGRITY" AMENDMENT TO ARTICLE ONE OF THE NORTHERN CONSTITUTION

Quote
Voter Integrity Act

I. One must be a citizen in the North for ten days before becoming eligible to vote in the elections of that region.

[X] AYE
[   ] NAY
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: February 2017 Federal Election on: February 17, 2017, 02:07:34 pm
REPUBLIC OF ATLASIA - In Dave We Trust
Official Ballot

PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF ATLASIA


[2] dfwlibertylover/Goldwater
Federalist Party



[  ] Maxwell/smilo
Vermont Communist Party/Harambe is a Free Gorilla Party



[3] NeverAgain/Southern Gothic
Labor Party



[1] Winfield/Poirot
Independent



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above



HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - NINE SEATS



[8] 1184AZ of Washington
Labor Party



[  ] Cashew of California
Labor Party



[1] Enduro of Pennsylvania
Federalist Party



[6] lwp2004 of Connecticut
United Alternative



[2] North Carolina Yankee of North Carolina
Federalist Party



[9] OneJ_ of Mississippi
Labor Party



[7] Peebs of North Carolina
Labor Party



[3] Potus2036 of West Virginia
Federalist Party



[5] SecureAmerica/Heisenberg of New Mexico
Federalist Party



[  ] simossad of Minnesota
Labor Party



[4] tedbessell of California
Federalist Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Write-In Campaign: Let's Keep North in the North! on: February 14, 2017, 06:56:07 pm
So I guess it's not so much renaming the region as it is giving it a nickname?  Either way, this is a really silly thing to get up in arms about.

Don't you people realize there's fluoride in our water that's turning frogs gay?  Bet you didn't think about that.  You only think of yourself.

Atlasia is a really silly thing to get up in arms about. But it's a game that is supposed to reflect the real world.  You don't think there would be an uproar if the legislature decided to change the name of, say Pennsylvania, to something else, with no option to keep the name as is?
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Write-In Campaign: Let's Keep North in the North! on: February 14, 2017, 02:36:32 am
There is no write-in option on the ballot.  Ideas were already submitted for the Assembly to consider, and they narrowed them down to three.

Also, you submitted like ten different names, so why are you objecting to this now? Huh

I don't care whether there is a technical write-in option on the ballot.  Unless I'm missing something (and I admit that I haven't been following affairs in fantasyland as close as I used to), we the voters of the North were NEVER given the opportunity to keep the name North under this possibly unconstitutional process.  That was explicitly denied by the underlying law.  It was a changed name or nothing.  Instead of being given the choice to keep or change the name, we're now given a choice between 3 names.

The North's constitution needs to be amended if we are to change the name.  And constitutional amendments are supposed to be Yes/No affairs to change or not change the status quo, not a choice between 3 changes to the status quo.

For these reasons, I will absolutely be writing in "Northern Region" on the ballot - and implore my fellow residents of the North to do the same.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Freedom with Franklin: Let's rename the North Franklin! on: February 13, 2017, 07:47:11 pm
No thanks.  Let's keep the name as is.  It is more descriptive of what we are as a region.

Didn't we already vote on this once before and reject it?  Why are we doing this again?  Stop.  Just stop.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: how many 'reported' posts do you have? on: February 06, 2017, 08:22:04 pm
1 reported, 0 moderated in over 8 years.  I think the reported post came during the 2016 election cycle, but I'm not sure what it was.

I do occasionally report some posts for over-the-top personal attacks, like telling another poster to die, and for excessive bad language.  Both are completely unnecessary.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll on: February 05, 2017, 11:23:09 pm
You paid for a multiple question survey? WOW!

A 50-respondent multiple-question Google Surveys national poll costs $50.  It's $1.00 per response, instead of 10 cents per response.  (State multiple-question polls are $1.50 per response.)  A 50-respondent poll is likely nowhere near statistically significant, of course.  

We'd probably have to pool our resources to conduct a statistically significant multiple question poll.  It's too expensive.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll on: February 05, 2017, 05:23:07 pm
Though yeah, 500 responses instead for 50/27 would be much more useful if I can figure out how to do that Smiley

Was this a multiple question survey or multiple 50-perso surveys?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll on: February 05, 2017, 02:51:46 pm
Wow, this looks really good, Castro. Would be nice if someone could do Montana and poll the special election, the Senate race and maybe the 2020 gubernatorial race.

For 500 responses, this would cost $700 with the coupon. Beyond what I imagine Atlasian users want to spend on this.


SurveyMonkey does multi-question polls cheaper ($1 per respondent for a national poll, I think, so $500 for up to 10 or 15 questions), but polls for states cost more and may not even be available for a small state like Montana.  SurveyMonkey will also allow you to only poll RVs as an option, usually for free, which is a slight improvement over Google Surveys.  Survey Monkey one-question polls are way more expensive than Google Surveys' - the same $1 per respondent, IIRC.

Three one-question Google Survey Montana 500-respondent polls would cost $225 sans coupon, which is cheaper than doing a multi-question poll.  BTW, Google Surveys at least used to give a small coupon with the final results e-mail if you polled again within 2 weeks - something I unfortunately missed when conducting my primary polls until it was too late.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll on: February 05, 2017, 02:22:54 pm

Google emailed me seperate results that were reweighted by age and gender:

Undecided 44.1%
Warren 31.2%
Trump 18.4%
Petersen 1.7%

Not registered 4.5%

Note that Google's reweight is to the Internet population, not registered voters, so it skews younger than what you'd get if you weighted for RVs or LVs.  The 2016 CPS RV/LV weights aren't available yet.  But your actual sample was too male-heavy, so the Warren percentage should go up a bit in either case.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Trump lose the Alaska caucuses because he worships Vladimir Putin? on: February 03, 2017, 12:51:47 am
It's a caucus. Trump did not do well in those.

If I recall correctly, Alaska's caucus was more like a firehouse primary - it was run by the party, but the polls were open for a set period of time (3-8PM), and participants could cast their secret ballot and leave.  I don't think it was an Iowa-style caucus with candidate speeches, publicly caucusing for candidates, and the like. 

FWIW, the Green Papers called it the Alaska District Conventions, as district conventions were held after voting closed at 8.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2016 Lower Chamber Results Map on: February 02, 2017, 09:53:43 pm
You are a god among men, Adam.

Edit: Are you going to do Alaska and Hawaii as well? Or are shapefiles for those two just impossible to get?

Alaska and Hawaii are some of the easiest states to get shapefiles for, believe it or not.  The Alaska Lt. Governor's Division of Elections website is halfway decent.  It's places like Kentucky and New York that make you do extra work for shapefiles (precinct shapefiles in particular), if they are available at all.

Great map as always, Adam Griffin!

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll on: February 02, 2017, 09:12:37 pm
Well, this is interesting:

If the 2020 Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates?

Donald Trump (Republican Party) - 29%

Andrew Cuomo (Democratic Party) - 17%

Undecided/Unknown - 38%

Would Not Vote - 16%


If you factor out those who would not vote, Trump leads Cuomo 34%-21%, with 45% Undecided. I think I'm going to go without an Undecided option next time and see what happens.

Here's how they perform under particular filters, with non-voters factored out:

Men: Trump leads 37%-19%
Women: Trump leads 32%-22%

Midwest: Trump leads 32%-20%
Northeast: Cuomo leads 34%-26%
South: Trump leads 39%-15%
West: Trump leads 37%-20%

Your crosstabs sound plausible, except perhaps for West.  What states does Google Surveys consider West?  California must make up a good portion of its population, no?  What do they classify Texas as?  South, I hope?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What can the GOP do to win Riverdale, Bronx in 2020? on: February 01, 2017, 01:16:15 am
Unless the Democrats turn into an expressly anti-Semitic party in the next 4 years (doubtful, especially with Chuck Schumer at the helm on the Senate side), I doubt the GOP can win Riverdale.  It has traditionally been home to a lot of non-Orthodox Jews who tend not to vote for the GOP.  Think of it as an extension of the Upper West Side for people who want more space.  Those from Riverdale who aren't Jewish tend to be pretty well off by Bronx standards.  Trump and the GOP didn't do very well with the NYC rich in 2016, either.

The NYC precincts that Trump won tended to be middle class, largely (but not exclusively) Italian-American neighborhoods on Staten Island, Queens and even the Country Club section of the Bronx, or heavily Orthodox or Russian Jewish areas, mainly in Brooklyn.  That's where the GOP can make further inroads in NYC, if they're not maxed out there already because the white ethnic population is generally declining in New York.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll on: February 01, 2017, 01:06:35 am
This was really fun and I have a 2nd email, so I've started a Trump/Cuomo general election match-up since I think he'd be one of the weakest Democrats could offer as a candidate. I would do more Democrats, but multiple question surveys are very expensive.


Edit: These initial Cuomo vs. Trump results would be pretty surprising if they hold up.

Unless someone has a huge lead, they sometimes don't.  Depending on when the poll was put into the field, Google Surveys sometimes seems to ask its Android app users questions first, which skews the early results younger.  Thus, the early sample isn't necessarily representative of the country/state as a whole after the news/other site results are added in.

It is really interesting to watch the results come in and track how each type of geography/response type/age group/gender polls, though.  Almost addicting.  As you probably know, you can download the results in real time and track subsamples from batch to batch.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cuomo proposes putting abortion rights in NY state constitution on: January 31, 2017, 09:03:11 pm
Of course, as is true with many "progressives", to Cuomo, "tolerance" is only for those with which he agrees.

Very appropriate use of quotation marks around the word "progressive", fam. Cuomo is a certified right-wing stooge.

Quote
Who does he think he is to speak for all New Yorkers?  He doesn't speak for me.

You lost.

Get over it.

I'll keep that in mind when President Trump claims to speak for all Americans and you disagree.

Cuomo right wing?  He raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour, told a good portion of the population they don't belong in the state based on their political beliefs, is currently running ads about the wonders of Obamacare, and thinks it's a good idea to let anyone and everyone into the country.  That's not right wing.  Cuomo is a "progressive".
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cuomo proposes putting abortion rights in NY state constitution on: January 31, 2017, 08:50:30 pm
If Roe v Wade is over-turned it will probably go to state law. In most cases, I believe state law forbids abortion (no idea about NY). I'm rather surprised more states haven't done this.

 

Abortion was legal in New York before Roe v. Wade.

Cuomo is one of the most liberal current politicians on social issues.  Remember that he has said that pro-lifers have "no place" in New York.  He also announced that he is a black, gay, Muslim-Jewish woman:

 http://libertyhangout.org/2017/01/ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-comes-out-as-a-gay-black-muslim-jewish-woman/

I always love how the governor who told conservatives like me that we have no place in New York preaches "tolerance" when convenient.  Of course, as is true with many "progressives", to Cuomo, "tolerance" is only for those with which he agrees.  
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll on: January 31, 2017, 01:52:35 pm
Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?


Most filters didn't change the order much, but there were some filters that provided interesting results. Limiting answers to just the Northeast brought Booker into almost a tie with Warren. Likewise, Booker did better when answers were limited to voters in Urban areas. Kamala Harris did better in the West but not by much. Warren most strongly performed in the West and Midwest. There were very few differences when looking at gender. The sample size is probably too small to really get anything else out of that.

I'm curious having never conducted a national poll - for national polls, does Google Surveys break down the results only by region or also by state?  And am I right in assuming you still get age data?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: January 31, 2017, 01:39:52 pm
So what's with those Trump precincts in Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx?

Most Trump precincts in those boroughs are full of white ethnics, largely Italian and Irish-Americans, and/or Orthodox Jews.
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