Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 30, 2017, 04:18:09 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 439
1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: Today at 12:57:33 am
The Nassau-Suffolk line is interesting. Also the Poconos. Is that people families moving out, or adult children moving away, as happened in Nassau in the 70s (there was the huge influx following WWII, and then 15-25 years later all the children were grown. The adults were still around 50-60, so not ready to vacate their homes, and there wasn't yet infill of apartments. The children who formed families had to move out to Suffolk. Those without, could move to NYC, or wherever they ended up for college, or North Carolina, Florida, etc. where they met a mate from somewhere else.

It's a combination of people not moving to the NYC exurbs, like the Poconos, any more, some older Poconos residents moving to the sunbelt, and probably some adult children moving away.

Quote
Is there something odd about the projection? It seems a bit stretched east-west.

There might be.  I used the census default projection on QGIS without reprojecting it to Albers Conic or whatever.  It's NAD 83 (EPSG:4269).  But Long Island is really long, which might make it look like it's stretched (plus, my water file leads to more water than there really is being shown, which probably makes Long Island seem longer than it really is.  

What projection should I be using?  Albers makes things conic, so stuff isn't oriented the way you normally see it on a map.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: May 29, 2017, 11:30:47 pm
Now that I have the population estimate data for 2000-16 in a readable format, I can make gifs of the growth patterns in metro areas.  First, the greater NYC Metro Area:



Note how there was an exodus from the Inner suburbs until around 2008, followed by an exodus from the exurbs in the 2010s.

What metro should I make next?
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 28, 2017, 01:25:55 am
I made single-year maps for 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, etc.  They're available in my Carto account.  These are backward looking, so if there was a merger or consolidation, you're only going to get stats for the 2016 entity, and won't get stats for dissolved entities.

Unfortunately, I compared 2011 to the 2010 estimate instead of the estimates base or census, and didn't compare the 2010 estimate to the 2010 EB or census in my spreadsheet.  It's way too much of a pain to fix that (I'd have to update all the maps), so it will have to stay that way.  At least all of the comparisons are for a one-year period, though.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Election Results by Precinct on: May 27, 2017, 01:36:03 pm

It's RI's map.  And it's been discussed before here and here.

The link to the interactive map is here:
https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/

But any post mentioning RI's excellent work is appreciated by me.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clark County, Arkansas on: May 27, 2017, 01:00:55 pm
There are 2 colleges in the county seat, Arkadelphia - though one is a baptist college.  Perhaps that has something to do with it?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why are Dems overperforming in these latest special elections? on: May 27, 2017, 12:58:09 am
My god, yesterday morning you guys were convinced quist would win.

1) not really, re: the giant early vote

2) even a pet monkey should have won after the attack.

Only if the pet monkey invented a time machine and abolished early voting.  70+% of the vote was already cast before the assault.  This is exhibit A why no-cause early voting should be abolished.

They're open local races. Of course they're going to be closer. Comps to Clinton are misguided at their core.

Yes and no.  Yes, they are open local races and they're going to be closer, but comparisons to Clinton do inform us how other open local races might go in 2018.
7  About this Site / How To / Re: Creating Maps on: May 27, 2017, 12:17:48 am
That technology really overwhelms me, but thanks.

I'm a fan of wikipedia's election maps, anybody have any idea where they get their templates from?

It's easier to learn than you think.  I basically taught myself how to do it.  Some others, like realisticidealist and jimrtex are much more expert at it than I am.


Yeah, I've been wondering this too. Does anyone know?

I don't know, but I can easily make a template of practically anything you want using mapping software and shapefiles - if they're publicly available.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 27, 2017, 12:07:08 am
I had a feeling those Google polls might be onto something with that regional divide.

That's about the only thing they got right.  Mattocaster6 actually had two Google polls out after mine.  The first one was in the field 5/22-24 - and had Gianforte up by 5 (weighted).  But it had an undecided option, which actually won the poll at 37%.  N was small 230 total respondents with 210 not choosing the NLTV option.   It predicted Quist would win the West vote by 4 and Gianforte the East vote by 16.  Not bad.

But then he put a 344 Respondent poll in the field late on 5/23 Mountain Time.  It didn't end until near the end of election day.  At first, it was a tie or a small Quist lead.  Then, Gianforte assaulted the reporter, and the poll overreacted.  The final weighted tally was Quist +13, with Quist up by 27 in the West and Gianforte only up by 4 in Eastern Montana.  There was no undecided option, and 254 total respondents chose a candidate.

The chart below shows the cumulative Quist margin (weighted) in that poll:


The yellow line is about when the Gianforte assault news broke.  Note that once the news broke, Quist's margin exploded.  My guess is this is in part because most people who take Google Surveys are reading news articles, and many of the articles at the time were about the assault.  And Quist supporters are more likely to read negative stories about Gianforte.  Similarly, my final Google Survey might have been biased by Quist supporters reading stories about his rally with Bernie, which happened that weekend.

In other words, these Google Surveys have somewhat of a self-selected sample.  I'm done with them.  The experiment has failed.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 26, 2017, 04:53:54 pm
Google Surveys were right about one thing: There was a 23-point difference between the vote in Eastern and Western Montana.  Quist won the Western Montana vote by 3 points, 49-46.  Gianforte won the Eastern Montana vote by 21, 57-36.

If I've done the math right, Western Montana was slightly overrepresented versus past elections - 61% of the total vote instead of 59-60%.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 26, 2017, 04:31:51 pm
Cinyc, in Arkansas, what are you going to do with College City located in Lawrence County.  It consolidated with Walnut Ridge in May of last year.  It was in the final phases of occurring when the data was estimated.

Could you possibly combine the two on one of your maps to show that this occurred?

I could estimate things manually when I get a chance, but if Census hasn't caught up with the change yet, I'm not going to change the shapefile.  I used the most recent Census shapefile for each type (County, MCD and Place).
It occurred over a year ago, so it may not be in the shapefile for 2016.  It defently should be in the 2017 version though if they ever release it.

The combined entity gained 3 residents from 2015 to 2016.  Its 2016 population is 5180.  It has lost 3.08% of its population from 2010, or 165 residents.

If census hasn't gotten around to fixing the shapefile, I'm not going to change the map.  It would take more work to do that than you think.

Edited to add:  Census is aware of the consolidation (it made their list of entity changes), but it didn't take effect until January 1, 2017.  The estimates are 2016 estimates - so it makes sense to show the entities as they existed in 2016, not 2017.  I'm sure Census will update their 2017 shapefiles to reflect the consolidation.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 26, 2017, 10:14:42 am
Cinyc, in Arkansas, what are you going to do with College City located in Lawrence County.  It consolidated with Walnut Ridge in May of last year.  It was in the final phases of occurring when the data was estimated.

Could you possibly combine the two on one of your maps to show that this occurred?

I could estimate things manually when I get a chance, but if Census hasn't caught up with the change yet, I'm not going to change the shapefile.  I used the most recent Census shapefile for each type (County, MCD and Place).
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 26, 2017, 10:11:35 am
I've made my maps using the 2016 Estimates Data.  Please let me know if there are any obvious errors. There may be a separate post analyzing trends in the future:

2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Census

Do annexations cause "Balance of X County" to drop? Looking at Dekalb, GA in particular.

In the 2010 census version of the map, yes.   But not in the version versus 2010 population estimates, which controls for annexations and the like.  IIRC, the balance of Dekalb, GA dropped because of the creation of a new city.  We had the same issue in the 2010-15 version of the map.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 26, 2017, 03:01:22 am
I've made my maps using the 2016 Estimates Data.  Please let me know if there are any obvious errors. There may be a separate post analyzing trends in the future:

2015-2016 Percentage Change in  Cities, Towns, and County Remainders Population
2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Census
2010-2016 Percentage Change versus 2010 Estimates Base (takes into account annexations and the like)

2015-2016 Numerical Change in  Cities, Towns, and County Remainders Population
2010-2016 Numerical Change versus 2010 Census
2010-2016 Numerical Change versus 2010 Estimates Base
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 25, 2017, 12:22:42 am
Can Montana actually afford to have a second special election? That was the big deal behind the mail in only ballot measure. If counties are in this serious of financial trouble,and Gianforte resigns(after winning the election) wouldn't Montana just let the seat remain vacant until '18?

No.  Montana law requires the governor call a special election from 85 to 100 days after a vacancy occurs.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 24, 2017, 11:49:57 pm
Census' press release is here.  The rest of their press kit is here. The actual data will be available in the morning, before 10AM.

From the press release:

Quote
Ten of the 15 fastest-growing large cities were located across the South in 2016, with four of the top five in Texas, according to new population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Conroe, Texas (near Houston), was the fastest-growing large city (population of 50,000 or more) between 2015 and 2016 at 7.8 percent, making its growth rate more than 11 times the nation’s growth rate of 0.7 percent. Some of the other fastest-growing cities were: Frisco, Texas (6.2 percent); McKinney, Texas (5.9 percent); Greenville, S.C. (5.8 percent); and Georgetown, Texas (5.5 percent).

“Overall, cities in the South continue to grow at a faster rate than any other U.S region,” said Amel Toukabri, a demographer in the Census Bureau’s population division. “Since the 2010 Census, the population in large southern cities grew by an average of 9.4 percent. In comparison, cities in the West grew 7.3 percent, while cities in the Northeast and Midwest had much lower growth rates at 1.8 percent and 3.0 percent respectively.”

Four cities in the West — Bend, Ore.; Buckeye, Ariz.; Lehi, Utah; and Meridian, Idaho — were among the top 15 fastest growing. Only one city in the Midwest, Ankeny, Iowa, topped the list while no cities in the Northeast were among the nation’s fastest growing.

--Snip--

Things to look for:
Phoenix passes Philadelphia (4k difference)
San Francisco passes Jacksonville (4k difference)
Columbus passes Indianapolis (3k difference)
DC passes Detroit (5k difference), as Detroit is still declining

Phoenix passed Philadelphia.
San Francisco did not pass Jacksonville.
Columbus passed Indianapolis.
DC passed Detroit, which is still declining.  Detroit reportedly fell to 23 or 24, depending on which newspaper you believe.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 24, 2017, 11:20:21 pm
The embargo on the city estimates has been lifted, and various news websites are filing stories on the population estimates.  But the database and press release isn't available yet on census.gov.

Here's an alternate link to search for city results from Cleveland.com.

Yes, Seattle topped 700,000 residents.

The Top 10 U.S. Cities
1. New York: 8,537,673
2. Los Angeles: 3,976,322
3. Chicago: 2,704,958
4. Houston: 2,303,482
5. Phoenix: 1,615,017
6. Philadelphia: 1,567,872
7. San Antonio: 1,492,510
8. San Diego: 1,406,630
9. Dallas: 1,317,929
10. San Jose: 1,025,350
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 11:10:57 pm
Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.

So roughly 1/3 of the vote still out. So this would probably be very close assuming the election day Republican turnout is down. I just don't know who won early voting because of the polling.

1/3 to 1/2 of the vote is still out, depending on 2014 vs. 2016 turnout.  The answer will likely be somewhere in the middle, closer to 1/3.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 10:53:32 pm
373,831 Montanas cast ballots in the 2014 general election.  516,901 Montanans cast ballots in the 2016 general election.

So, at 2014 turnout, you're looking at about 116,000 election day voters.  At 2016 turnout, about 259,000.  Given absentee return rates, the answer is probably somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.

If 2014 is the model, about 69% of voters have already voted.  If 2016 is the model, about 50% have already voted.  The answer, again, will likely be somewhere in between, closer to the 2014 numbers than the 2016 numbers.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 10:46:23 pm
Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Edit: There are 699,207 Montana registered voters as of 5/23/17.  The percentage of those who have already voted is 36.87%.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 10:39:48 pm
How many people have voted already?
About 2/3 of the electorate. But undecideds and leaners vote on election day. The GOP has to do well in election day vote to win.

Surely not ever single person votes that's registered, in other words, there won't be 100% turnout. They are already topping 70% turnout, how many more people could there even be left that want to vote tomorrow?

No they're not.  70% of absentees sent have been returned.  That's not 70% of all registered voters.  From what I've heard, absentee turnout is somewhere in the 30s as a percentage of registered voters.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 09:21:03 pm
It's moments like these where you would love accurate polling to see what the race was like before this incident. If emerosn and gravis are right and it's a 15 point lead for G, then it would be pretty tough for this to actually lead to a quist win. If the race is/was within 5 or 6, it's quist's to lose now.

ing polling.

It would be ironic if this made my crap Google Survey the most accurate poll.  I still don't think that's going to happen.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 09:03:53 pm
According to the Change Research poll, only 5% and 4% of Montanans primarily get their news from CNN and MSNBC - and they're a Quist-leaning bunch to begin with.  22% chose Fox.  If you want to reach the Gianforte voters, CNN and MSNBC aren't going to cut it.

How about a police press conference?

Depends on who airs it and when, doesn't it?  I doubt Fox News will air it live.  Will the local stations break into prime time programming to show it?  Probably not.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 08:51:43 pm
According to the Change Research poll, only 5% and 4% of Montanans primarily get their news from CNN and MSNBC - and they're a Quist-leaning bunch to begin with.  22% chose Fox.  If you want to reach the Gianforte voters, CNN and MSNBC aren't going to cut it.

That's why Quist surrogates are putting in the leg work themselves.

As we discussed earlier in this thread, Montana has a ban on robo-dialing.  You need a live operator to place robo calls.  That potentially limits the number of people who can be called directly.

I think that anyone who doesn't live under a rock will have heard about this by tomorrow.  But a lot more people than you think live under a rock.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 08:47:26 pm
According to the Change Research poll, only 5% and 4% of Montanans primarily get their news from CNN and MSNBC - and they're a Quist-leaning bunch to begin with.  22% chose Fox.  If you want to reach the Gianforte voters, CNN and MSNBC aren't going to cut it.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 24, 2017, 07:23:33 pm
That audio is pretty damning. Hope Jacobs is alright...

If he's still Tweeting, he's probably alright.  Not in the ICU, like the fake tweeters have been claiming.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 439


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines