Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 21, 2014, 03:00:40 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 322
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sen. Angus King considering switching parties after midterms? on: Today at 01:20:47 pm
If it's GOP 49, Dem 50, Angus will have everyone's balls in a meat grinder.

No he wouldn't.  Even if King caucuses with the GOP, Joe Biden would just be permanently camped in D.C. to break ties.  It's GOP 50, Dem 49 where King's votes matter most.  Caucusing with the GOP would get them to 51.  Caucusing with Democrats would cause Biden to break ties.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: Today at 12:25:23 pm
I love that Udall is up by ten among those who have already voted, even though the GOP has a 15-point lead in early voting as of yesterday.


The sample size for that subsample is very small.   It is 1/4 of the sample, which is probably only around 100 voters.  That gives a margin of error around +/- 10.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: Today at 12:34:09 am
Hawkins will be holding a campaign rally with Ralph Nader in NYC next weekend!

Very excited to attend! With Cuomo's campaign collapsing into farce, double digits is looking more and more attainable!

Yuck. This makes me consider switching my endorsement. Nader has caused more damage to this country than Cuomo ever will. Too bad Rent Is Too Damn High isn't an option.

That's why I never supported Hawkins. I'd vote for another joke party if I lived in NY.

Unfortunately the only other options are Astorino and a libertarian. I guess it doesn't matter too much anyway since his candidacy is solely to send a message, but Naderites always leave a bad taste in my mouth.

There's also a Sapient Party candidate for Governor on the ballot.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislatures in Play on: October 19, 2014, 06:49:39 pm
The PA House of Representatives is sadly looking more and more Likely R.

It was never really in play. The talk of Wolf coat tails has been vastly overstated here.

I think when you have a Gubernatorial candidate winning by 20+ percent, possibly, it's easy to get carried away with coattails.

Coattails always have been and always will be overrated.  Most voters are perfectly capable of ticket splitting when it suits their agenda.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The government wants to study ‘social pollution’ on Twitter on: October 18, 2014, 09:44:35 pm
This is not political correctness running riot. The study of the online proliferation of racism, neo-nazism, fascism, conspiracy mongering and misogyny is very important. Maybe your age blinds you from the reality of internet subcultures but there are deepening networks online which are corrosive to society. This has little to do with the GOP: women are threatened online on a regular basis, people of color are threatened online on a regular basis and these threats often manifest in verbal harassment, stalking and the release of private information. The anonymity of the internet provides shelter for deviant communities and it's important that the government funds scientific studies that give us insight into these communities.

To address bedstuy: I think that this study is more easily criticized without expanding upon the purpose of the study. Studying social media would be a poor use of governments funds if it did not have a easily demonstrated public purpose, which it obviously does.

Except the "study" has little to do with "the online proliferation of racism, neo-nazism, fascism, conspiracy mongering and misogyny" (and even if it did, it's still wrong, as even abhorent things like supposed racism and neo-nazism are protected by the First Amendment).  From the piece:

Quote from: Washington Post
But there’s much more to the story. Focusing in particular on political speech, Truthy keeps track of which Twitter accounts are using hashtags such as #teaparty and #dems. It estimates users’ “partisanship.” It invites feedback on whether specific Twitter users, such as the Drudge Report, are “truthy” or “spamming.” And it evaluates whether accounts are expressing “positive” or “negative” sentiments toward other users or memes.

The government has no business estimating people's partisanship and whether it thinks certain political memes are true.  Which memes do you think the Obama administration's lackeys do you think will determine are "false"?  Certainly not "progressive" memes.  And why should the government or its agents be keeping a dossier on people's partisanship?  That's essentially the government monitoring the political beliefs of its citizens and negatively labeling those who disagree.  Is an enemies list far behind? 
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The government wants to study ‘social pollution’ on Twitter on: October 18, 2014, 09:06:40 pm
It's just an academic study on social media by a university, funded by an NSF grant.  Cool your jets.

I'm sure you and all the other red avatars would be saying that if Bush were still President.  After all, what is $1 million of taxpayer dollars to "study" how to shut up your political opponents for spreading "subversive propaganda" opposing your agenda among friends?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The cable networks that draw the most partisan ads aren’t the ones you expect on: October 18, 2014, 08:59:18 pm
The gender-based division is weird. Wouldn't democrats trying to reduce their disadvantage with men just be as effective as increasing their margin with women? And vice versa?

The data seems to go back to the primaries, when you would expect Democrats to try to appeal to their base on networks like MSNBC and Lifetime and Republicans on Fox News.  But it's probably all about rallying the base.  Even after the primaries, though, Republicans are still more likely to advertise on Fox News and Democrats on MSNBC.  According to the last chart, CNN still gets more Democrat ads than Republican ones.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / The cable networks that draw the most partisan ads aren’t the ones you expect on: October 18, 2014, 08:46:35 pm
The cable networks that draw the most partisan ads aren’t the ones you expect
Washington Post Gov Beat Blog/Reid Wilson

Quote
In an increasingly fragmented television market, with hundreds of channels vying for viewer attention, political parties and candidates have to choose their targets wisely: Spend money on the wrong network and you risk missing the persuadable voters you need to win an election.

As cable networks take up a bigger percentage of viewer eyeballs, campaigns are spending more on those networks than ever before. A new study by Echelon Insights, a Republican firm that specializes in digital and advertising strategy, found that Republican campaigns tend to buy cable spots on channels aimed at men, while Democrats are buying more spots on channels that draw more women and young viewers.

It’s little surprise that the overwhelming number of political advertisements on Fox News come from Republicans: GOP candidates accounted for 84 percent of Fox’s ads. A similar number, 85 percent, of ads on MSNBC come from Democrats.

But the news networks are only the second-most partisan channels. Echelon found that 93 percent of political ads on the Golf Channel are paid for by Republican candidates and outside groups. And 94 percent of the political spots on the E! Network are sponsored by Democrats and their allies, making it the bluest network in America.

--Snip--

More at the link, including charts of which party's candidates are advertising where on cable.  Republicans like to advertise during Monday Night Football on ESPN to reach men.  Democrats like networks like Lifetime to reach women.  And the average cable ad (presumably local) isn't as expensive as you might think- $130.83 on ESPN, $128.69 on Fox News, and under $100 on all the rest.  The Weather Channel's ads only cost $12.90.

Echelon's report was from Time Warner Cable's data, so it might not accurately reflect the picture nationwide.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / The government wants to study ‘social pollution’ on Twitter on: October 18, 2014, 08:37:57 pm
The government wants to study ‘social pollution’ on Twitter
Washington Post/Ajit Pai

Quote
If you take to Twitter to express your views on a hot-button issue, does the government have an interest in deciding whether you are spreading “misinformation’’? If you tweet your support for a candidate in the November elections, should taxpayer money be used to monitor your speech and evaluate your “partisanship’’?

My guess is that most Americans would answer those questions with a resounding no. But the federal government seems to disagree. The National Science Foundation , a federal agency whose mission is to “promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity and welfare; and to secure the national defense,” is funding a project to collect and analyze your Twitter data.

--Snip--

The Truthy team says this research could be used to “mitigate the diffusion of false and misleading ideas, detect hate speech and subversive propaganda, and assist in the preservation of open debate.”

Hmm. A government-funded initiative is going to “assist in the preservation of open debate” by monitoring social media for “subversive propaganda” and combating what it considers to be “the diffusion of false and misleading ideas”? The concept seems to have come straight out of a George Orwell novel.

The NSF has already poured nearly $1 million into Truthy. To what end? Why is the federal government spending so much money on the study of your Twitter habits?

--Snip--

What a waste of taxpayers' money on a program the government has no business monitoring in the first place.  We have a right to free speech, especially political speech.  The government has no business labeling what it doesn't like "subversive propaganda" or determining whether it believes certain political speech is "true" or combating political speech.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Senators would you most want to see lose this year? on: October 18, 2014, 07:08:24 pm
Every Democratic Senator
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Scott Brown: If Romney was president, there'd be no concern about Ebola on: October 18, 2014, 06:27:37 pm
Let's say we did ban travel from West Africa. Couldn't somebody just fly to Europe and fly to America from there? What about flying from Africa to Canada and crossing the border on car?

FYI, I've never flown so I'm not really familiar with all the procedures.

I don't think there currently are any direct flights from the U.S. to the affected countries, unless they are on some obscure foreign airline.  Most would travel through Europe.
 
But non-U.S. Citizens or permanent residents need a visa to travel from places like Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.  Denying visas until the Ebola epidemic is contained wouldn't take much effort.  Denying entry to nationals from those countries who already have a visa at the border and sending them back from whence they came wouldn't take much effort.  Going one step forward by denying entry to those who declare that they have traveled to those countries on their trip would take a bit more effort, but not much.  It requires looking at the entry form everyone needs to fill out when entering the country by air and asking the proper questions at the land borders.  And it's not impossible for a border agent to catch those who lie on their forms or questions by looking at passport stamps to see if there are any recent entry or exit visas from the affected countries and deny entry or require quarantine. 

So, no, it wouldn't be difficult to enforce a partial (West African citizens only) or full travel ban from the affected West African countries.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Scott Brown: If Romney was president, there'd be no Ebola on: October 17, 2014, 10:30:30 pm
I don't have the time to search though an 8 minute video to get to the gotcha sound bite you find so offensive.  Did Brown say or mean in the U.S.?  If he did, he's probably right.  Romney wouldn't have been so politically correct as to not ban travel from the affected countries.  The Liberian ebola patient would have come here in the first place.  And there would be no Ebola in the U.S. right now.

Even your party's sitting Senators in tough races have recently come out for closing the borders with the affected West African countries.  So Brown isn't exactly outside of the mainstream here - and is on the right side of public opinion.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-Rassy: Orman+12 on: October 12, 2014, 09:56:30 pm
Are we really at the point where people want polls they don't like kept out of the database? The only thing that should be excluded is internals. Not every single poll is accurate, but they still get entered regardless.

Because the pollster recalled the poll.  This would be like the Gravis poll that was recalled and replaced. The pulled Gravis poll would have to be removed from the database and replaced with the new one as Gravis doesn't stand behind the original poll. There is no October Rassmussen Kansas poll to put into the database at this moment.  Rasmussen recalled it.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cory Booker in trouble in NJ? on: October 10, 2014, 02:09:27 pm
No.  All polls show Booker winning by about 10, which will be close to the final result. It's not like polls are showing him only up 5 or less.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ: Stockton Poll: Booker +9 on: October 09, 2014, 11:08:39 pm
Joke poll.

Nonsense.  It's totally in line with other New Jersey polls, which show Booker ahead by 11-15.  And 10-15 points is likely to be Booker's winning margin, if past New Jersey Senate races are any indication.  9 points isn't far from that.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / VA: University of Mary Washington: Warner +10 on: October 09, 2014, 08:49:53 pm
University of Mary Washington Poll
Warner 47%
Gillespie 37%
Sarvis 6%
None/Would Not Vote 3%

October 1-6; 444 LV; MoE +/- 5.3 points.

Among RVs, it's 50-30-6-5.  Among Adults, it's 49-26-6-7.

The poll was taken for the university by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.  The sample was 50% landline, 50% cell phone.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ: Stockton Poll: Booker +9 on: October 09, 2014, 08:32:32 pm
Somebody needs to add Stockton's September poll to the database.  I don't have access to add polls.  The link to it is here.  That poll was:

Booker 49%
Bell 36%
Undecided 12%
Other/Decline to Answer 3%

It was taken September 5-8, of 806 LV with a MoE of +/-3.5 points.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NJ: Stockton Poll: Booker +9 on: October 09, 2014, 08:21:49 pm
Stockton Poll
Booker 48%
Bell 39%
Undecided 12%

October 5-8; 810 LV; MoE +/-3.5 points

Booker is down net 4 points from Stockton's September 10 poll.

Obama's New Jersey favorables are at 44-53 and his job approval rating is 38-61.  Christie is slightly underwater in job approval (49-51), but has positive favorables (56-41).
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-CNN/ORC: Sullivan+6 on: October 09, 2014, 08:14:55 pm
RIP in peace Mark Begich. Cry

Looks like his only hope at this point is systematic poll error. That's more plausible in Alaska than other places, but still a pretty thin straw to be grasping.

It's still a month away from election day.  That's an eternity in politics.  Anything can happen.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO on: October 09, 2014, 06:22:18 pm
I don't believe there are 20% undecided in Colorado this close to the election.

There aren't.  11% are undecided, which is pretty much in line with the recent Suffolk poll.  7% back one of the many other candidates in the race, which is slightly below Quinnipiac.  Unlike in some other states, Fox News didn't poll the other candidates by name but asked if they would support "one of the other candidates" in the race.  1% volunteered that they wouldn't vote in that race.  

Fox News polls keep people who volunteer that they wouldn't vote in a particular race in the overall tally for some reason.  I don't know if other pollsters do.  I guess they do it to keep the number of respondents the same for all poll questions.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in South Dakota? on: October 09, 2014, 04:43:17 pm

Oops.  There's a Rounds or RSCC ad just waiting to be made there.  Obama's approval rating in South Dakota must be somewhere just above Ebola and ISIS.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-Rassy: Orman+12 on: October 09, 2014, 04:14:28 pm
Either CNN and Fox are way off or this is way off.
This poll might not even exist. RRH says it was pulled from the Rasmussen website for subscribers. So far, it has not shown up on their public website.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-Rassy: Orman+12 on: October 09, 2014, 02:13:11 pm
15 point differential amongst two Right Wing pollsters?  "May you live in interesting times"

Again,  Fox News uses a bipartisan panel of pollsters, a Democrat pollster working with a Republican pollster. It is not a right wing pollster.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-Rassy: Orman+12 on: October 09, 2014, 02:10:12 pm
Is this poll still on the Rasmussen private website?  It's not on the public website and someone from RRH said it has been removed without comment.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Yet another police shooting of a black man in St. Louis County on: October 09, 2014, 12:49:33 am
Your title is wrong.  The city of St. Louis, where the incident occurred, isn't in St. Louis County.  It is its own separate entity.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 322


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines