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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Alaska 2016 on: December 02, 2016, 11:34:52 pm
This confirms that Clinton did quite poorly among Native voters across the country. Was turnout down or did these voters switch to Trump?

I haven't crunched the 2012 numbers myself (as I said, they're courtesy of Lewis Trondheim from last cycle, and he provided actual percentages, not votes), but eyeballing the rural House Districts 37-40, turnout appears to have been mixed in the bush - slightly up in some HDs and down in others.  I'll confirm when I crunch the 2012 numbers.  Eventually I want to do an ED vote swing map by County Equivalent for comparison.

Unfortunately, the HD boundaries changed from 2012 to 2016 due to court-ordered redistricting, so the HD numbers from the two years aren't an exact comparison.  Nevertheless, I'm going to try to make a final precinct and HD map this weekend.  I'm also going to post Senate and House race maps in this thread so we have all 2016 Alaska maps in one place.  I'll probably cross-post on the Senate forum, which is usually frowned upon, but putting all the Alaska maps in one place makes sense since they're not in the Atlas and are hard to find anywhere.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Alaska 2016 on: December 02, 2016, 02:38:49 am
Alaska made its results official earlier in the week.  This will serve as a repository for Alaska 2016 maps and results discussion.

First, a map of the 2016 Presidential results by Alaska County Equivalents.  While the election day result is reported by precinct, the absentee, early and questioned votes are only reported by House District.  I allocated the absentee, early and questioned votes by multiplying the total number of votes of the type in the HD by the percentage of election day votes reported in that part of the House District.  I think this is the method Lewis Trondheim used when calculating the 2012 results, but he can confirm that.  The only county equivalent that flipped by allocating the election day, early and questioned votes this way was Yakutat in the Southeast (Click for a larger image from the gallery):



Note that the unlabeled county equivalent on the west coast is Bristol Bay.  The unlabeled county equivalent in the Southeastern panhandle is the gold rush port of Seward.  Also, the Wade Hampton Census Area is now called the Kusilvak Census Area.  Wade Hampton was a slave-owning confederate civil war general who had no connection to Alaska.  The area was renamed for a mountain range in the area.

For comparison's sake, here is the 2012 map, and a map of the swing from 2012 to 2016:




In general, the Native Alaskan-heavy areas of bush Alaska, which swung heavily to Obama in 2012, swung to Trump in 2016.  Anchorage and Fairbanks-North Star Borough swung slightly Clinton, as did Skagway, Southeast Fairbanks, Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island.  Haines in Southeast Alaska swung heavily Clinton.

More to come.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: December 01, 2016, 04:11:22 pm
Putting in requests for Massachusetts and New York.

If past practice is any indication, Nassau County, New York won't release their official precinct level results until next year.  They always seem to be the last jurisdiction in the country to report official precinct level results.  In other words, don't expect a New York state precinct map any time soon.
4  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Election results maps of Alaska by borough? on: November 30, 2016, 07:42:38 pm
realisticidealist took most of my answer.  

I can easily make a map of the election day vote by Alaska county equivalent (technically, not everything is called a borough - there are municipalities and unincorporated census areas that, IIRC, are part of something called the unorganized borough), but allocating the absentee/provisional vote is at best an inexact science for certain areas because they are only released by House District instead of by precinct.  I haven't checked whether Alaska has certified its results recently, but I will make a map of the election day vote by borough when they do, as I have for past elections.

I put a map of the unofficial Alaska election day vote by precinct in realisticadealist's thread on the 2016 results board here.  The map has county equivalent lines, so you can sort of guess at who won each area.

As for past Alaska county equivalent maps, there are some here, here and here, among other places.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Fidel Castro dead at 90 on: November 26, 2016, 01:09:34 am
I don't have anything nice to say about Fidel Castro, so I'd rather not say anything at all.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Urban County Clusters - Delineations on: November 20, 2016, 11:01:37 pm
Good tabulating.  (Lots of time on your hands?)  In most cases I understand the numbers.  This is because the number in the parenthesis match the second number outside it.  For example,

ANCHORAGE, AK 292 (1): Anchorage Municipality (Anchorage, AK 251)  292  251  86%.

Anchorage has one county in the ACC, 251000 county residents live in the UCC, and the county has 292000 total.

But in some cases the numbers do not match.  For example,

LANCASTER, PA 519 (1): Lancaster County (Lancaster, PA 397; Philadelphia, PA--NJ--DE--MD 5)  519  402  77%.

Reading your explanation of the table, I think these numbers should match.  Am I missing something?




Anchorage has only one UCC in its county equivalent, Anchorage Muncipality, and the Anchorage UCC lies solely within Anchorage municipality, but not all residents of Anchorage Municipality are in the UCC.  This is largely because the joint Air Force/Army base in the municipality cuts the city's UCC off from the northern part of the municipality.  The northern part of the municipality includes the suburb of Eagle River.  Similarly, the municipality is large enough to include the relatively smaller ski community of Girdwood in the south, which isn't part of the UCC because it is separated by miles of state park/national forest from the Anchorage Bowl.  (In fact, Girdwood doesn't even get police services from the Anchorage police department).

In your second example, Lancaster County has areas in 2 UCCs - the Lancaster UCC near Lancaster City, and the Philadelphia UCC.  397,000 people live in the Lancaster UCC.  An additional 5,000 people live in the Philadelphia UCC.  So 402,000 of the county's 519,000 residents live in a UCC, or 77% of the total population.  Parts of rural Amish Country probably separate the Lancaster UCC from the Philadelphia UCC in the county.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: November 20, 2016, 09:20:39 pm
Unofficial Alaska in-precinct Results.  Because Alaska doesn't break down the early vote by precinct, this is only of the election day vote.  The yellow lines are of the Alaska county equivalents.  A few precincts cross county equivalent lines:



I think the precinct Johnson allegedly won, 37-736 New Stuyahok, is in error.  Clinton probably won it big.  Note that 35-735 Kasaan was a Trump-Johnson tie, with each getting 7 votes.

The Alaska Dispatch News put together an interactive map of the two-party vote here.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Southwestern Kansas and the Texas panhandle on: November 18, 2016, 06:24:01 pm
Hispanics

I'm guessing the effect is more Hispanics moving into the area, rather than Hispanics swinging from Romney to Clinton?

Actually, I think it is a mixture of local Latinos that are more established "Old Tejano" residents, that typically would tend to lean Republican, combined with a higher birthrate than the "Old Anglos" and the children and grandkids are coming of voting age, and voting more like Millennials in other parts of the country.

We need to remember that most of these counties are extremely sparsely populated and there isn't a ton of net migration into this region, and as I have stated multiple times rural WestTex was one of the few regions where there was a net swing towards Obama between '08 and '12, and I suspect that with Trump as the Republican nominee it swung even harder Dem this year than before, simply because this dude Trump is not a typical Texas Republican, even among older Tejano voters and there descendents.

I don't know what counties you or Figueira are specifically talking about, but there has been a lot of Hispanic immigration to a lot of the meat packing counties in Kansas.  Seward County (Liberal) is now majority Hispanic, and Finney County (Garden City) is inching its way there.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 17, 2016, 09:31:22 pm
Clinton won 94% of the vote, Stein beat Trump by one vote. Incredibly proud and honored to not live in a precinct full of neo-nazi trash people.

I'm not letting you get away with calling Trump supporters "neo-Nazi trash people".  There were many reasons to vote for Trump - from liking some or all of his policies to opposing crooked Hillary to wanting to stop the Supreme Court from being yet another ultra-liberal bastion.  Half the country isn't "neo-Nazi trash."

Besides, I haven't forgotten that you were Trump's biggest booster during the primaries.  You wanted Trump to win the Republican nomination.  Under your interpretation, doesn' t that make you neo-Nazi trash, too?
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: When will somebody put up a new state PVI chart? on: November 13, 2016, 11:09:13 pm
I'll probably update the county map PVI project when we get official results.  No sense doing so before then, as it would have to be redone, and it gives me something to do in the off-season.  

Most PVI bellwether counties weren't good bellwethers this cycle, anyway, so I question its usefulness.  I suspect we're going to get a lot of trending in the new PVI counties from last cycle to this, too. 

I haven't checked all of the national PVI bellwethers, but Washoe County, NV may have done better than many of the others at predicting the national margin.  Educated counties like Loudoun, VA and Los Alamos, NM were way off as those with college degrees skewed Clinton.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC: Hate crimes spike following the Election on: November 13, 2016, 10:40:28 pm
The source for the premise of article, the Southern Poverty Law Center, is not an objective observer.  They are a liberal activist group that labels all kinds of constitutionally protected speech as "hate crimes".  The SPLC is a serial exaggerator.  I don't believe a word they say.

And, if you do believe them, they also claim "the last time he saw such a similar rash of attacks was after Obama was elected".  So I guess President-elect Obama was as responsible for a spike in hate "crimes" as President-elect Trump.
I've come to realize that anyone who ever writes anything negative about Trump or in some cases anyone or anything conservative will be labelled as a source not to be believed. Ultimately, this has led to a country where there aren't even a set of facts from which all sides can argue. One side sees a completely slanted and cherry picked version of reality. The other sees a completely different reality.
This is a horrible place for our country to be. Trump is not even attempting to address this. He is making it worse. Civil War is likely happening again.

I've said the same things about the Southern Poverty Law Center before Trump was running for anything.  They are a liberal activist group masquerading as non-partisan.  They label constitutionally protected speech hate crimes, with little regard for the First Amendment.  They label many perfectly mainstream conservative organizations hate organizations even though they are not.  They might have had a point in the past, but these days they are a bunch of partisan, liberal hacks with an agenda to attack conservative thought.  The SPLC has cried wolf far too many times for me to believe them without outside verification.

Has anyone forgotten that cinyc is a bigot?

The SPLC are a great organization that helps do tons of great research and defense to help minorities of all kinds. To say things like this is to undermine all of the great work they do. Of course, I don't expect you to understand this, since I bet you think defending people targeted by racists is a bad thing. They've done so much good for the African-American, Latino, Jewish, and LGBT communities. The world would be a darker place without this organization

I am no bigot.  Opposing the ultra-liberal agenda of the Southern Poverty Law Center doesn't make me a bigot, either.  Like I said, they are hyper-partisan and have a history of exaggerating.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mr. Illini maps 2016 on: November 13, 2016, 02:04:18 am
And Orland Township voted to secede.  Won't happen, obviously.

Secede from what?  Cook County?  To join what?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Kalawao, HI Stein's best county? on: November 12, 2016, 06:39:58 pm
I thought there were no polling places in Kalawao? There weren't in the primary, certainly...

There is one precinct in Kalawao.  I'm not sure if it is an actual precinct or everyone votes by mail, but it does exist.  Kalawao County results are usually reported with the Maui County results, as Maui County runs their elections (and practically everything else there, IIRC).
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ Hispanics turnout on: November 12, 2016, 03:12:25 pm
NJ.com has a New Jersey results map by town here.  That might help you in your analysis.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Referendum on Common Market between UK and Atlasia on: November 11, 2016, 01:50:00 am
No
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How NYC voted by neighborhood on: November 11, 2016, 12:06:49 am
Did Trump win anywhere in NYC that was not heavily Orthodox Jewish (like Midwood in Brooklyn that my Dad grew up in), or heavily Italian precincts?

Trump won in the more heavily Irish areas of the Rockaways, like Belle Harbor.  He also won a precinct in the heavily Irish community of Woodlawn, the Bronx.  Whitestone, Queens, which he largely won, has a bit of a mix of white ethnics and Asians, and is not necessarily Italian or Orthodox.

Trump did well in City Island, Throgs Neck, Bronx.

But he didn't win either community outright.  He seems to have only won the Country Club section of the Bronx.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What happened in Wisconsin? on: November 10, 2016, 11:36:44 pm
These two maps might explain some of what happened in Wisconsin.  First, the percentage change in turnout by county from 2012-2016 (Note: I'm using the unofficial numbers from CNN, which only include Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein.  Write-ins and other minor candidates are not included, which might dampen 2016 a little bit.  But the relative change in turnout by county is what's important, anyway):


Turnout was down practically everywhere, except for a few counties in western Wisconsin.  But it was especially down in Milwaukee County. 

Next, the numerical change in the R-D margin from 2012 to 2016.  Note that these are in reverse Atlas colors because I usually peg red for increases and blue for decreases in the winner's margin:


The margin in most counties swung to Trump.  Only Dane County (Madison) and the WOW counties in suburban Milwaukee swung toward Clinton.  Trump appears to have made his relative biggest numerical gains in the Green Bay/Fox Valley area of Northeast Wisconsin, along with Milwaukee County and its blue collar southern neighbors, Racine and Kenosha Counties.  Paul Ryan's home county, Rock (Janesville) was also good for Trump, suggesting maybe that the Ryan machine helped Trump's numbers in Wisconsin, too.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Trump in the Dakotas on: November 10, 2016, 11:18:34 pm
Turns out that when a state becomes the new global capital of the oil industry, it becomes a Republican bastion.

That might explain North Dakota, or at least the relatively sparsely populated western part of that state - but it doesn't explain South Dakota, which doesn't have much oil.

Both North and South Dakota are full of smallish cities.  Small cities swung Trump nationwide.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC: Hate crimes spike following the Election on: November 10, 2016, 09:06:39 pm
The source for the premise of article, the Southern Poverty Law Center, is not an objective observer.  They are a liberal activist group that labels all kinds of constitutionally protected speech as "hate crimes".  The SPLC is a serial exaggerator.  I don't believe a word they say.

And, if you do believe them, they also claim "the last time he saw such a similar rash of attacks was after Obama was elected".  So I guess President-elect Obama was as responsible for a spike in hate "crimes" as President-elect Trump.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Long Island on: November 10, 2016, 05:28:51 pm
From the article:
     
In Nassau, Trump won the reliably Republican Oyster Bay by 12 points, but fell to Clinton in Hempstead, North Hempstead and in Long Beach and Glen Cove. Clinton fared best in Long Beach, where she won by 17 points, and North Hempstead, where she got 57 percent of the vote compared with Trump’s 43 percent.

Trump dominated Brookhaven, Suffolk’s largest town, beating Clinton by 18-points, powered by working class hamlets such as Shirley and Rocky Point. He won Smithtown, a GOP stronghold, by 28 points. He ran up a 20-point margin in Riverhead, and won Southold, on the North Fork, by 10 points.

Trump’s strength in Suffolk extended to more Democratic areas such as Huntington, where he edged Clinton by half-a-percentage point. His only Suffolk losses came in Babylon, a Democratic area, where he fell 3/10ths of a point short, and in Southampton, where Clinton won by two points, and East Hampton, where she had a 28 percentage point margin.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Long Island on: November 10, 2016, 05:25:31 pm
Long Island Precinct Map, from Newsday:
http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How NYC voted by neighborhood on: November 10, 2016, 05:18:21 pm
Trump didn't win the Trump Tower precinct.  I think Romney either did or was tied in that precinct in 2012.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you feel bad for Hillary Clinton? on: November 10, 2016, 02:38:32 am
I don't feel bad for politicians.  They know what they are getting into.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did "basket of deplorables" cost Hillary the presidential election? on: November 10, 2016, 02:26:45 am
Insulting your opponent's voters is never a good idea, so, yes.  It just annoys those voters and drives them to vote against you.  Hillary should have learned this lesson from Mitt Romney.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Poll Aggregators Got Wrecked This Cycle on: November 10, 2016, 02:16:29 am
Exit polls generally overstate younger (and thus nonwhite) voters, so I'm tentatively guessing the white non-Hispanic vote in the final ACS data will come in at about 72%. For 2012, the ACS estimates it at 73.7%. I'll have to look at some of the final natl/state polling and compare their demos, but in the rust belt, where the white population and polling error was high, that's a plausible explanation for why the natl and state diverged so much.

I suspect a lot of the pollsters modeled their electorates based on the 2012 ACS estimates.  I know we did for the Atlas Google Survey polls.  The real issue might be that the 2012 electorate didn't show up to the polls, and turnout was more like 2014.  African-American turnout appears to be down by enough in places like Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia to, along with higher working class white turnout in small town and rural areas, narrowly give those states to Trump.  The swing toward Clinton in the suburbs was not enough to counterbalance the other two effects. 

Trump also appears to have done slightly better among minorities than Romney, which virtually no pollster picked up (and any pollster that did was laughed at on this forum, anyway).  In particular, the Hispanic-only pollsters like Latino (D)ecisions, which, according to Wikileaks, was hired to do Clinton's own Hispanic polling and had a huge conflict of interest when producing public polls, were terrible.

I doubt Trump did better among Hispanics vs Romney. Although it should be noted Romney likely did better among Hispanics than the exit poll showed. He also only won the white vote by 17%, not 20. There was likely a 3-4 point swing in the white vote this year vs 2012, and a 7-8 point swing among Blacks along with lower turnout. Hispanics probably did swing to Clinton by at least 2-3 points and turnout was definitely higher as well. Look at results from Texas, Arizona and California.

Clinton did worse than Obama 2012 among Hispanics.  This is clear from both the exit polls (Clinton's 65% versus Obama's 71%), and looking at heavily Hispanic counties in the Rio Grande Valley, like
Hidalgo County, Texas (McAllen).  While Trump and Romney both received about 28% of the vote there, Obama received 70.3% to Clinton's 68.6%.  Similarly, in Webb County (Laredo), Obama got 76.4% to Clinton's 74.3%.  Some of this was due to a higher vote for third parties in 2016.  But what's clear to me is that the Hispanic vote broke nothing like Latino Decision's alleged Clinton 76, Trump 14 split.  They lowballed the Hispanic vote.
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