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August 20, 2014, 09:22:27 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 02:12:47 pm
AK is a bit unique in that R primaries are closed and D's are open. I guess the closed primary is why Miller was able to win the first place in 2010.

That website is wrong.  Alaska Republican primaries are only semi-closed.  Unaffiliated and Nonpartisan voters can vote in the Republican primary.  Those registered in another party (like Democrats) cannot.  You do not have to be a registered Republican to vote in the primary.

Alaska Democratic primaries are totally open, though.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 03:15:46 am
With 74% in, Sullivan and No again slightly increase their leads.  I'm surprised that the AP hasn't called the Republican Senate race for Sullivan.  Practically everything that's out is from rural Bush areas that don't have many votes, let alone Republican votes. 

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       328    74.4%
Times Counted       83349/494900    16.8%
Total Votes       81953    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    2376    2.90%
Miller, Joe    REP    26075    31.82%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    32940    40.19%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    20562    25.09%

MEASURE NO. 1 - 13SB21       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       328    74.4%
Times Counted       138303/494900    27.9%
Total Votes       136014    
YES       65485    48.15%
NO       70529    51.85%
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 02:39:59 am
New dump of around 50 precincts.  Sullivan and No slightly increase their leads:

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       295    66.9%
Times Counted       75301/494900    15.2%
Total Votes       74031    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    2114    2.86%
Miller, Joe    REP    23818    32.17%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    29629    40.02%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    18470    24.95%

MEASURE NO. 1 - 13SB21       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       295    66.9%
Times Counted       125217/494900    25.3%
Total Votes       123118    
YES       59879    48.64%
NO       63239    51.36%
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 02:18:02 am
At first I thought you meant people who voted for George W. Bush (lol), but now I realize you mean Northern Alaska and Native Alaskans. I think they'll lean yes on this, but you never know. They were probably the group that Obama gained the most in 2012 out of any demographic group in the country.

I think it's hard to predict.  HD40, which includes the North Slope where Alaska gets most of its oil from, might be inclined to vote no to try to keep and expand oil exploration in Alaska and keep getting royalties for the borough.  The rest of the Bush HDs (37-39 and 6) are more of a wild card.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 01:52:22 am
The referendum is now leading No.

34,893 (49) - 35,962 (51)

The real wildcard on the referendum is the Bush vote.  Little of it is in, and total votes cast there usually is little - but will matter big in a close race.  And I don't think people can even guess how the Bush will vote on the referendum.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 01:26:42 am
AoSHQDD calls R-Sen for Sullivan.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 01:25:25 am
From Twitter, but isn't AOSHQ/AP.

#AKSEN
Actual count now:

29,850
29,254

I'm not sure if this is true.

Not according to AoSHQDD, AP or the State Division of Elections.

What's in is more from Fairbanks, Kenai and the Mat-Su than Anchorage and the Bush.  The former areas are likely more Miller-friendly than the latter.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: Today at 12:08:15 am
First AK results:

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       76    17.2%
Times Counted       20040/494900    4.0%
Total Votes       19693    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    599    3.04%
Miller, Joe    REP    6531    33.16%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    7876    39.99%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    4687    23.80%
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 19, 2014, 10:17:50 pm
What time do the Alaska polls close?  Midnight EDT, 11 PM CDT?

Most of the state closes at 12 AM EST, but the media generally considers it closed at 1 AM due to Aleutian Islands.

There is literally one precinct in the Aleutians that theoretically closes at 1AM Eastern.  Everything else closes at midnight Eastern.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 19, 2014, 10:14:47 pm
Some Alaskan Primary preliminary early and absentee statistics, via adn.com:

Quote from: Alaska Dispatch News
More than 9,500 people voted early as of Monday evening, compared to 5,100 for all early voting in 2010, according to the elections division.

Early votes received by last Friday will be counted once polls close Tuesday, Fenumiai said. Absentee ballots people sent by mail will take longer -- and there may be a lot of those. The state sent out 13,086 ballots to people who requested them. Generally, the state sees a little more than half of those come back as completed ballots.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What will be Cuomo's weakest county/area/city in the Democratic primary? on: August 19, 2014, 07:16:14 pm
Tompkins County (Ithaca) will likely be his worst county.  It's home to Cornell University and Ithaca College and is probably most receptive to Teachout's progressive message.  Some other counties in the Southern Tier might also vote against Cuomo due to his lack of action on fracking.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 19, 2014, 07:13:19 pm
Some of it closes at midnight,  the rest at 1 am. It doesn't count that fast either, or at least it didn't in 2010.

99% of the polls close at midnight.  A few in the Aleutians close at 1AM.  Alaska usually starts counting and releasing results after midnight. 

If I recall correctly, Alaska results are released by the state, like Hawaii.  I seem to recall results are more continuously updated than Hawaii, though.  They also might release precinct-level results continuously, but the reports are in 40 separate pdf files for each House District and are difficult to aggregate using Excel.  You can usually tell what's out by looking at the precincts reporting in the House District primaries, anyway.

Alaska Republican primaries are open to Republicans, nonpartisan and unaffiliated voters.  Democratic primaries are open to everyone, including Republicans.  The Democratic primary is included on the same ballot as a few minor party primaries, too.  You can pick and choose which candidates to vote for in each race.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 18, 2014, 10:25:55 pm
Alaska Division of Elections results page: http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/14PRIM/
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 18, 2014, 09:35:09 pm
Here's the final map of the Democratic Senate results on the Big Island of Hawaii.  As I said before, the two precincts that voted after election day were split.  04-01 went to Schatz with 57%.  04-02 went to Hanabusa, by a lesser margin, 53%.  04-01 is about double the size of 04-02, which also explains why Schatz' lead grew after the inclusion of those results and the missing absentees on Maui, which Hanabusa won.  Margins changed in all Maui precincts, but not by enough to change the map, which is gradated using the typical atlas 10-point step color grade.



I'll also put a statewide map in the gallery for future reference.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 16, 2014, 03:44:48 pm
Schatz won precinct 04-01 with 57% of the vote.  Hanabusa won 04-02 with 53%.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 16, 2014, 01:05:52 am
AOSHQDD @AOSHQDD
#HIsen
first results added into totals
Hanabusa 113628
Schatz 115397
Nothing has nor will change our Sunday call for Schatz.


So Schatz increased his lead from 1635 to 1769.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 16, 2014, 12:28:46 am
KHON2's tally of what is to be counted tonight is:
Quote from: KHON2
Here is the final tally of votes that need to be counted: 1,496 mailed or early walk-in, 1,508 in-person Friday, 12 absentee ballots that were dropped off in-person Friday, and 800 uncounted ballots from Maui.

So 3,816 votes.  Not all will be Democratic primary votes.

If media reports are correct, the 12 absentee ballots dropped off in-person will likely be included with the second printout.  The other votes will likely be on the first printout.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 15, 2014, 11:27:01 pm
Twitter is reporting 1,508 votes were cast today in Puna.  There are also 1,448 or 1,487 absentee and early votes from those precincts, depending on the source, giving us at most 2,995 total votes cast in the two Puna precincts.  Add those to the 800 mail-in absentees from Maui, and we end up with roughly 3,800 votes to be added to the tally today.  By my math, Hanabusa needs to win 72% of the outstanding votes to win.  Not going to happen.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 15, 2014, 11:04:04 pm
The Maui absentees aren't specific to any House District.  They are countywide absentees.  Hanabusa was slightly ahead in Maui County.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 15, 2014, 10:56:07 pm
As polls set to close in Puna, 800 uncounted Maui votes discovered

These are mail-in votes, likely from HD9, which Hanabusa won 59%-40%.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 15, 2014, 09:56:06 pm
Quote from: Twitter
Chris Tanaka @Chris_Tanaka    3m

Latest unofficial total ballots cast at Keonepoko: 1353 tune in at 5p for more

Picking up a little, perhaps.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 15, 2014, 09:35:39 pm
KHON2:
Quote from: KHON2
As of 3:45 p.m., the first precinct recorded 785 votes while the second precinct recorded 444 votes, according to a worker at the poll.

So 1,229 votes total.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 15, 2014, 09:21:33 pm
In many respects, this is no different from the very conservative voters who still opt for Vitter or DesJardins... it's the phenomenon of partisanship at work.

What I find weird, though, is that Cuomo's key is boosting turnout. The more publicized the battle, the more Dems will come vote for him. A low turnout affair only aids the pissed off Teachout slice... so...

Low turnout doesn't necessarily help Teachout.  Low turnout in NY primaries usually means that only the party bosses and their underlings are voting, which helps the person actually nominated by the party - Cuomo.

If Andrew Cuomo loses the primary, does he still appear on the ballot on the WFP line?

Unless he turns it down. 
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 15, 2014, 08:49:42 pm
If she couldn't get the Working Families Party endorsement, why would she win the less-liberal Democratic primary?

Internet "progressives" are convinced that because they think Cuomo is a DINO and a "Republican", all Democrats must hate him.  So says the echo chamber.  Yet independent polling shows Cuomo has wide support among Democrats.  And which type of Democrats like him the most?  Self-described Liberal Democrats, according to the polls.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rick Perry indicted! on: August 15, 2014, 08:45:09 pm
They are going to arrest him if he doesn't turn himself in to be booked, mugshot and all. I say he will resign in the next two weeks. He is finished.

This makes Bridgegate look like...nothing. They must have something on him if they are going forward with the charges.

A politically motivated indictment by the DA whose funding Perry cut because she was arrested for DWI gets an indictment because her funding was cut?   Sorry. They have nothing on Perry.
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