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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ted Cruz: All senators should be like Jesse Helms on: September 12, 2013, 04:41:37 pm
Cruz you freakin idiot! Helms and the dixiecrats would have  detested you and "your kind"

See below...............


2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Ohio on: January 27, 2013, 08:28:06 pm
pect there were other women who had the same issue.
Obama performed better with whites in Ohio than nationwide, because of the auto bailout.



Republicans tend to rack up huge margins amongst Whites in the South so this skews the results.  In Indiana which is a reliable red state in most elections (2008 was somewhat a fluke), the percentage of whites who voted for Obama was pretty much bang on the national average and slightly better than what Obama got in Virginia and Florida (both states he won).  Gender gap may partially explain as amongst white males Romney won by a landslide in Ohio, while it was much closer amongst white females.  It seemed the gender gap was much larger in the northern states than southern states and I suspect some of the talk on legitimate rape and anti-abortion hurt the GOP amongst female voters.  In fact Steve LaTourette's wife was planning to vote for Romney, but then voted for Obama after the rape comments so I sus

Bingo

2008 Ohio Whites for Obama
White Men      45&
White Women 47%

2012 Ohio Whites for Obama
White Men      36%
White Women 46%


Basically lost nothing 2008-2012 from white women in Ohio

Collapsed By 9% from 2008-2012 from white men in Ohio
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How the capital cities voted on: January 27, 2013, 08:15:13 pm
Nice to see Republicans doing so well in all our state Capitals.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The white vote in large counties. on: January 21, 2013, 07:24:46 pm
No, I mean what % of the electorate did you think was Hispanic in Harris County, for example?

Census  says  they are 41.4% of the Population

I had them around 32%. of the electorate.

Does anyone else want to take a crack at Harris County TX?

2010 Census results.

Black                                        19.3%
Asian/mixed race/all others      6.6%
Hispanic or Latino                    41.4%
White Non-Hispanic                 32.7%





5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The white vote in large counties. on: January 21, 2013, 07:10:10 pm
What assumptions were you making about Hispanic turnout, Goldenboy? Also Asian turnout?


I looked at the state exit polls for a given county in that state, and for the states that had none I used the national exit poll.

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The white vote in large counties. on: January 21, 2013, 07:06:05 pm
Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%

You have to be making some bad assumptions to get these numbers. There are precincts in most of these counties that are all but 100% white, and they don't vote 95% Republican. 80% Republican, sure, but not 95%. In Harris and Shelby (and maybe in Dallas?), there are even a few heavily white precincts that voted for Obama. 20-25% seems like the lowest possible white-for-Obama percent in urban counties (then down to more like 10% in some rural counties in the South).

Yea my math may off in some of these places , I was looking at the non-Hispanic white  population in a given county and comparing it to Romney's   vote total

Example:
Shelby County, Tennessee: White persons not Hispanic,  38.6%   

Romney's percent in Shelby 36.55%

Clearly he got basically  a very tiny amount  votes from blacks in Shelby and very  few from other minorities.

Virtually all his votes came from that 39% that were  white-non-Hispanic.

Now Texas and other heavily Hispanic places are tough because it's hard to figure the turnout because of non-citizenship and Texas Hispanics are more conservative than others.


Another easy one:

 Montgomery County AL 

Non-Hispanic white         38.3%
Willard Mitt Romney        37.5%
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The white vote in large counties. on: January 21, 2013, 06:09:10 pm
Excellent work Memphis, I did this awhile back in various counties I was curious about.

I used the 2010 census for the demographics of each county, the state exit polls where available, and adjusted for a sizable percent of Hispanics being non-citizens and therefore ineligible  to vote.

Here are some of my estimates, Id give them about a +/-5% margin of error.

Obama's percent of the non-Hispanic white vote.



Multnomah  OR  75%
King County WA 65.5%
Philly   PA 63%
LA   County     62%

Cook   IL  55.5%
Cuyahoga OH 53.7%
Hennepin MN 53%
Wayne ,   MI 46.5
Lake     OH 44.3%    (my home county)



Fulton GA 21.5%
Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%

8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary ahead on: January 20, 2013, 10:04:27 pm
The only problem with Rubio  is he will not get the Hispanic vote. The Republican Cubans have made it their business to distance themselves from other Hispanics in the past and in a national election he would surely fail due to getting only the Cuban and white Republican vote, which will not be enough to put them over the top.

Cuban- American Exiles= Ancestors were of Primarily of Spanish-European Heritage , very Light /White skin.

Mexican-Americans= run the gaunt from very light pale skin to  brown skin and even some who have deep indigenous  roots have dark brown skin.

Some Cuban-Americans like to speak Castilian Spanish in front of other Hispanics to show there (superiority) from being ancestors to the Spanish Conquerors.

I have heard Cubans disparage some Mexicans as just (Indians), sort of like some people would call whites from WV and Kentucky hillbilly's

Latin American has some weird , funky issues with race, skin color and ancestry.

Prediction if Rubio runs, other than Cubans he adds less than 6% of the  national Hispanic vote which comes to less than 1.5% of the total national vote, he will lose probably half of that right back from xenophobic white voters  if the Democrats run a white Nominee.

Net gain from running Rubio less than 1%

Repubs before you start clamoring for Rubio, study the history of the Conquistadors, the caste system and the differences between Latin-America cultures.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Intrade opens 2016 presidential markets on: January 18, 2013, 06:09:08 pm
I must, I have  to find a loophole to get around the ban on Americans by at least early 2016,

For those that wasn't on Intrade there was literally hundreds of thousands of dollars of FREE money that some person or some entity wanted to bet that Romney would win, all the way until 6:pm ET the day of the election day.

I actually began to worry that it was too good to be true and that the Obama shorts were phantom contracts and the management on Intrade was gonna  embezzle the money and run.

But everything worked out, it wasn't a scam mostly everyone has cashed out and received their money in full as I have.

I still wonder who was putting tens and hundreds of thousands for Romney to win all the way up to election day evening , surely the people who have the knowledge to know how to wire money in and use Intrade has to have some basic intelligence.

I may never seen that opportunity to make  that much FREE  money ever again in my life.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: age polarization reversal in 2016? on: January 17, 2013, 11:22:24 pm
So the racist dinosaur vote is somewhat back into play for the Democrats?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did coal miners vote? on: January 16, 2013, 07:11:47 pm
lol, didn't you refuse to believe that manufacturing or construction workers could vote for Obama on the basis that unions endorsed him and that it'd be "hard to see guys in hard hats voting Romney?"

Uh, Romney is the rich people's candidate.

Um, you need to just stop with this. Your insistence that all working class people voted Obama is just fantasy, no matter how much you (and I) want it to be true. Occupation and class is becoming a secondary factor in political preference, overshadowed by race, religion, ethnicity and sexual orientation. You know this.


Bingo, and it will be this way for decades to come.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: South Central Ohio on: January 16, 2013, 06:17:54 pm
ok, but what about the swing this year in south central Ohio? Anybody have an explanation for that region?


Ted Strickland country? Obama under-performed in 2008 and the voters came to realize he wasn't as bad as they thought he would be.

 
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Newspaper Headline: Day after election 2016 on: January 16, 2013, 06:13:45 pm
Obama wins a 3rd third term as U.S President


Or how about Michelle O as a figure head for a 3rd term?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: US County Map: Race/Party Correlation on: January 13, 2013, 10:47:02 am
I would love if someone could do a county map with the white  vote only, I guess a good estimate could be figured out by looking at the demographics of each county and allocating to Obama 95% of blacks  and 72% of the Asian/Hispanic/other, doing this one should be able to get a rough estimate of the non-Hispanic white vote.

I would too but as a Georgian, I might be embarrassed to look at it. I'm sure there are plenty of counties in south Georgia where whites voted less than 5% Democrat. I mean, seriously, just look at the census results (black & white percentage) for most counties down there and you'll get a rough estimate of the election results.




Yea that's true, I like to look at Romney's  percentage in a given county and compare it to the percentage of whites in that county.

Example the 2010 Census says Futon County is 41% white, Romney got  34.5% of the vote in Fulton. I am almost positive that at least 97% of Romney's votes in Fulton came from whites.

34.5 x 0.97= 33.5%
33.5 divided by 41% = 82%


Romney probably got around 82% of the white vote in Fulton give or take.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Newspaper Headline: Day after election 2016 on: January 12, 2013, 06:30:10 pm
HE DID IT!! HERMAN CAIN WINS AND MAKES HISTORY AS THE NATION'S SECOND  AFRICAN-AMERICAN PRESIDENT, PROMISES A MAJOR PUSH TO GET HIS 9-9-9 PLAN PASSED IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: US County Map: Race/Party Correlation on: January 12, 2013, 04:32:38 pm
I would love if someone could do a county map with the white  vote only, I guess a good estimate could be figured out by looking at the demographics of each county and allocating to Obama 95% of blacks  and 72% of the Asian/Hispanic/other, doing this one should be able to get a rough estimate of the non-Hispanic white vote.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP: Hillary destroys any GOPer except Christie on: January 11, 2013, 08:59:46 pm


Clinton also only leads Rubio by 3% among Hispanics, but 9% among whites.




Obama got 39% of whites and won every swing state except N.C.

Prediction,  if it is Rubio and Clinton, Hillary gets at least 44% of whites and  the election is basically a cake walk.

KY, WV and maybe MO would be in play, Rubio is  culturally a bad fit  for those states.


18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Democrats looking for the right woman for 2016 on: January 11, 2013, 04:58:54 pm





Michelle O needs to pull a Lurleen Wallace and be a figure head for Barack's 3rd term, could you imagine the bigots and the tea-party heads exploding. LOL

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huntsman/Christie vs. Cuomo/Warner on: January 10, 2013, 04:59:45 pm
Huntsman at the top of the ticket? Might be the first time I pull that lever for a R in many a moon.

The Republicans could never be that smart though.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In GOP, all eyes on Jeb Bush on: January 10, 2013, 04:53:49 pm




Stay out da Bushes!!!!
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats who voted against the war in Iraq on: January 10, 2013, 04:47:31 pm
I tend to agree with those who say that anyone who voted for the war should be disqualified from running for president. 

Let the church say amen.......



On to your question call me biased but I happen to think Sherrod Brown from Ohio would make a fantastic candidate, to me he really represents the meat and potatoes of the Democratic party,i.e, the blue collar working class.


22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz birtherism lives on: January 09, 2013, 04:05:07 pm
Senor Cruz, may we see your long form por favor, LOL
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How about John Boehner? on: January 04, 2013, 05:29:23 pm
Imagine all the tears being shed in Iowa and New Hampshire,


The Weeper in Chief, LOL
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary leaves hospital, expected to make full and speedy recovery on: January 03, 2013, 10:07:41 pm

Yahoo comments are always a cesspool of racism , bigotry, sexism, and hatred.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary leaves hospital, expected to make full and speedy recovery on: January 02, 2013, 07:55:49 pm
Good News, And God Speed.
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