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October 30, 2014, 07:19:28 am
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Mark has the best chance of winning? on: October 29, 2014, 11:32:49 pm
Pryor is almost certain to lose. Udall will likely need an October surprise. Begich by default, just because polling in Alaska is so difficult that we really don't have a great idea on where the race stands.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick Em, Week 9 on: October 29, 2014, 11:31:19 pm
New Orleans at Carolina 
Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Arizona at Dallas 
Philadelphia at Houston
NY Jets at Kansas City 
Jacksonville at Cincinnati 
San Diego at Miami 
Washington at Minnesota 
St. Louis at San Francisco 
Denver at New England 
Oakland at Seattle 
Baltimore at Pittsburgh 
Indianapolis at NY Giants

Tiebreaker is total score Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh - 51
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick a Winner Week #9 on: October 29, 2014, 11:29:07 pm
Ah Dallas.....

SEATTLE
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-SUSA: Davis +3 on: October 29, 2014, 11:27:47 pm
Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!
Highly unlikely - Republicans are up by over 20 points with early voting.

Republicans are not necessarily voting for Brownback. That's why this is a race.
The last numbers I saw had Republicans at 53% and Democrats at around 30%, with the rest Independents. If Brownback is losing that sample by 19% he is on his way to a landslide defeat.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-SUSA: Davis +3 on: October 29, 2014, 10:52:38 pm
Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!
Highly unlikely - Republicans are up by over 20 points with early voting.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2014 Major League Baseball prediction and discussion thread. on: October 29, 2014, 10:24:58 pm
Gosh Dangit

Always proud to be a Royals fan
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: KS-01-Jayhawk Consulting: Democratic internal shows Huelskamp (R) down 7 on: October 29, 2014, 08:56:05 pm
I wouldn't mind losing this seat for one term. Get someone better in there. If Democrats ever have a chance here, this is it.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Upset of election night on: October 29, 2014, 01:18:54 pm
KS-02 is not going to flip, guys.

Basing off of what would be an upset in Atlas, not to the nation at large, I think Brown, Tillis, Nunn or Grimes winning are the most plausible upsets.
9  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: 2014 Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Survivor on: October 28, 2014, 04:39:33 pm
Crist
Brown
P. Davis
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 28, 2014, 04:02:24 pm
Doing all mail voting is interesting.

So essentially we have a good idea on how a race is looking by looking at the numbers come in each day? And we will find out the results right when polls close?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OR-Elway Research: Merkley stomping Wehby flat on: October 28, 2014, 03:58:28 pm
Another Republican "gain" flushed down the toilet. Or should I say another race that a Republican was supposed to "win" by keeping their loss within single digits flushed down the toilet.
Where do you even come up with this stuff?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins Alaska? on: October 28, 2014, 02:28:39 pm
I'm going to stick with Sullivan, though nothing would really surprise me.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Mideast Voting Booth: GM Independence Amendment on: October 28, 2014, 09:33:21 am
Nay
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Detroit News/WDIV-TV (by Glengariff Group): Snyder (R) +6 on: October 28, 2014, 12:30:56 am
I'll be annoyed if either side tries to claim the term "wave" after election night. We have around 13 seats that will likely be decided by less than 5%.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?) on: October 27, 2014, 04:20:27 pm
Great Heather Wilson should have ran
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 27, 2014, 04:16:40 pm
I don't have numbers from previous years to compare, but early voting numbers look good for Republicans in Kansas.

So far, about 92,000 have voted early in Kansas. Of those, 53% were Republican, 32% were Democrat, and just 14.6% were Independent. A good chunk (1/3) of early voters are coming from the Wichita area.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: YouGov fourth wave polls on: October 27, 2014, 12:39:25 pm
This should be an exciting night - so many states could go either way.

Maryland is turning into a sleeper race, IMO. Hogan seems to have momentum and the numbers there have been tight for a while. Might be too little, too late, but we will see.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MD-Gonzales Research: Anthony Brown = the next Martha Coakley ? on: October 27, 2014, 12:35:41 pm
Maryland would be very smart to elect Hogan - he seems very capable and I think could accomplish a lot in Annapolis, working with Democratic majorities.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: ME-Press Herald: Collins up 35 on: October 27, 2014, 12:28:20 am
Yes! At this rate she will tie Collins around May 2015!
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Flash Poll - Midwest Gubernatorial Election on: October 26, 2014, 02:46:14 pm
Glad to see common-sense is prevailing in the Midwest.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread (US Domestic) on: October 26, 2014, 12:40:20 pm
Ebola would have never even started if Mitt Romney were President.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Demanding an apology from Speaker Hifly! on: October 26, 2014, 12:36:22 pm
This is incredibly disturbing.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How would you feel if the previous poster was your next-door neighbor? on: October 26, 2014, 12:06:35 pm
I am certain we would be good friends.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: New CBS/NYT/YouGov polls tomorrow morning on: October 26, 2014, 11:23:48 am
Good news out of Colorodo and Iowa, bad news for Kansas and South Dakota.  Everything else seems to be pretty much what we expected though. 

Its just a mixed bag today.
I wouldn't consider it good news - they are using the same sample so Udall actually lost another 2 points.

These polls are pretty good for showing who has momentum, but I don't put too much stock in it outside of that. Based on that, Republicans have improved almost everywhere.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD) on: October 26, 2014, 11:11:47 am
A good set of polls for Republican - not glorious, just good. Happy to see that North Carolina is still in reach.

I suspect undecideds will break for Roberts in the Senate race, based on my own intuition. People aren't too keen on Roberts, but it pales in comparison to the dislike many have for Brownback. Roberts is working hard to nationalize this race and I think it is working.
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