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July 23, 2014, 04:51:46 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: SC-Various SC media outlets/Susquehanna (R): Gov. Haley (R) up 4 (or 13) on: Today at 12:56:39 am
Well, that doesn't make much sense.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Rebirth of the Right on: Today at 12:50:53 am
The Conclusion of the GOP Primaries

Following South Carolina, Governor John Kasich became seen more and more as the pick of the establishment - Rand Paul took the support of much of the Tea Party while Governor Huckabee picked up evangelical support, primarily in the South. Unfortunately for Paul and Huckabee, they didn't have as much to hit Kasich on as Santorum and Gingrich did for Romney four years ago, and with polling continuing to show Kasich as the strongest candidate against Hillary, the task of knocking him off became more and more difficult.

Michigan and Arizona were the following primaries, and while Arizona was tight, both went to Kasich. This was considered the beginning of the end for both Paul and Huckabee. Super Tuesday was a bloodbath for Kasich, only losing Colorado to Paul and Oklahoma and Tennessee to Huckabee. What was crucial here was the state of Texas, a state Huckabee hoped to revitalize his campaign, but ended up losing by just under a percent. Both Paul and Huckabee had high hopes in Florida and Virginia, but narrow wins by Kasich in both states essentially sealed the deal. Following Super Tuesday, Governor Huckabee withdrew and encouraged Republicans to rally around Kasich. Paul stuck around a little longer, but polls showed Kasich's lead growing each day. By mid-March, Paul withdrew from the race and pledged his support to Kasich.

What started as a jumbled race turned into a relatively easy path for Governor Kasich. Phase 1 was complete on his quest for the Presidency. But could he stop the Hillary machine?

John Kasich is the Presumptive Republican Nominee!

National Poll:
Hillary Clinton - 47%
John Kasich - 43%

RCP Map:


Ohio:
John Kasich - 47%
Hillary Clinton - 45%

Florida:
Hillary Clinton - 48%
John Kasich - 44%

Colorado:
John Kasich - 47%
Hillary Clinton - 46%

ArkansasPoll:
John Kasich - 49%
Hillary Clinton - 41%
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who has a better chance of pulling off the upset? on: July 21, 2014, 09:03:13 pm
There seems to be some rumblings in Tennessee of a Carr upset and the Alexander campaign hasn't been too active. The answer even a few months ago would obviously be Roberts as it is a more high-profile race, but Roberts has ran a strong campaign, quickly defining Wolf. The X-Ray scandal continues to haunt Wolf as well, and almost all of his support, both in terms of cash and volunteers, is coming from out-of-state.

I have a bit of experience witnissing longtime GOP incumbments getting primaried (<3 Lugar) - that being said, Wolf isn't anywhere near the level that Mourdock was at, and Roberts has ran a much better campaign than Lugar has - nothing is sticking for Wolf. I'm going with Carr mainly just because I see Wolf's chances of winning to be extremely low. I would be surprised if he hit 40%.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: President Kerry and on... on: July 21, 2014, 08:59:20 pm
Just read through this - wonderful timeline!
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. David Jolly (R-FL) announces SSM support on: July 21, 2014, 08:24:28 pm
And I announce my support for him if he seeks higher office in the future.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who shouldn't run for president? on: July 21, 2014, 08:23:40 pm
Michael Steele - despite his electability I have some doubts on how good of a job he would do as President.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states could Elizabeth Warren win that Obama didn't? on: July 21, 2014, 08:21:59 pm
I could see Elizabeth Warren winning the following states that Obama lost:
 
 
 
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: A Walk in the Park... The Scott Walker Story. on: July 21, 2014, 03:10:11 pm
Good update! Smiley Nice to see Holbrooke resurrected.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 21, 2014, 02:12:43 pm
Jan Meyers has now endorsed Brownback, who is touting that he is still receiving moderate support
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MT-PPP: Daines up 7 on: July 21, 2014, 12:47:41 pm
Walsh is closing the gap. SHOCKER. I'm gonna laugh so hard if we keep this seat.
Correct, Walsh has a chance at pulling off an upset here if the 2014 electorate is more Democratic than the 2012 electorate.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Kansas Gubernatorial Election on: July 21, 2014, 12:31:25 pm
ABB (Anybody But Brownback)

^^^^

although im sure the democrat is a horrible right winger.

...he represents the most liberal town in Kansas. He's certainly not a Blue Dog.
Correct - he has been difficult for Republicans to work with even during the Sebelius/Parkinson years and is often one of the few "Nay" votes in any legislation that is a compromise. While he supports gay marriage he remains pretty quiet on the issue and also is a strongly pro-choice. Brownback has ammunition to use against Davis, the problem is that Davis has already done a pretty good job at defining both himself and Brownback...
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Kansas Gubernatorial Election on: July 21, 2014, 12:29:22 pm
Davis, of course.

I wonder if there are enough (so-called) moderate Republicans left in the KS Legislature to actually make a difference if Davis were to win.
By my count, the very conservative/Tea Party wing has a veto-proof majority. Might lose a few seats in November, but they're definitely going to stay in the majority and probably a veto-proof one as well.
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Fantasy Football 2014? on: July 21, 2014, 12:27:07 pm
I'm definitely up for it!

- 2013-14 Fantasy Football/Atlas Pick 'Em Winner
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 21, 2014, 12:22:29 pm
I voted today - begrudgingly voted for Brownback, but chose Morgan over Kobach for SoS. Stuck with Roberts for US Senate (obviously).
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Should Democrats run on the issue of redistricting in 2018 and 2020? on: July 20, 2014, 10:13:58 pm
This could be used to rally those in the base, but I suspect the average voter would be turned off if they were told "Vote for Democrats so we can gerrymander and not the Republicans."
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will the Obama legacy sabotage Romney's presidency? on: July 20, 2014, 08:42:14 pm
I think that Romney will certainly face obstacles left over from President Obama, but then again, doesn't that happen with almost every transition? I'm not trying to defend Obama, as I believe he has made a lot of mistakes as President, but he wasn't handed the best situation either.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anti-Mormon bigotry on the Atlas on: July 20, 2014, 08:39:00 pm
Speaking as one of Romney's most ardent backers and as a person who is friends with many in the LDS and has attended the church and follows many of their principles, I do find it discouraging. I noticed both among other Republicans during the primaries and with Democrats in the GE that it was occasionally used as a way to throw in an attack at Mitt. It expands beyond this forum as well - you rarely see backlash if a comedian or someone else makes digs at Mormons, whether it be their refusal to drink alcohol or their polygamous history.

Religion shouldn't be a major factor when it comes to politics. There needs to be an across-the-board understanding of that instead of the current "pick and choose" method many on both sides do.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 20, 2014, 08:17:40 pm
Probably just took a little digging - I expect these types of accusations to start as Democrats try to cover.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/paul-davis-kansas-election-2014-109123.html#ixzz382w9nlDx

It started with Meyers, but others instances are coming to light as well. This ploy gave Davis some momentum for a couple days, but the aftermath is starting to backfire on him. Also not included in the article is one of the lead organizers for the "Republicans for Davis" group - photographic evidence unveiled he had yard signs for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Also, Brownback is saying there is a big announcement coming soon...time will tell.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Deb Fischer: Potential Republican VP Nominee? on: July 20, 2014, 08:12:22 pm
I don't think she adds much to the ticket - might provide a minimal boost in the Midwest, Iowa in particular, and also would satisfy the small bloc of voters who lean Republican but are committed to getting a woman elected in 2016.

Assuming Hillary is the nominee and that she is still ahead of her Republican opponent when the time comes to choose someone, they'll be looking more to pick a VP that could change the dynamics of the race. She's more of a Joe Biden than a Sarah Palin when it comes to that. She will definitely be under consideration if the Republican nominee is up in the polls and needs a safe pick.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win the GOP runoff in Georgia? on: July 20, 2014, 05:57:44 pm
Why does everyone think Kingston is gonna win?
Didn't Perdue receive more votes in the first round?
Kingston is likely going to pick up a majority of those supporting Handel, Gingrey, and Broun and because of that, polling has shown him up by a few points. Ultimately it comes down to which side is more motivated - Perdue seems to have the edge there, so it should be pretty close.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HI: Hanabusa going for Senate on: July 20, 2014, 05:54:41 pm
It seems Hanabusa's campaign is entirely based on "Daniel Inouye wanted me to be senator, so you should vote for me"

You could just as easily say that Schatz's campaign is entirely based on "Neil Abercrombie wanted me to be a senator, plus muh incumbency, so you should vote for me."

At least Inouye is actually popular in the state. I support Schatz, but this has always been a pretty dumb line of attack. Hanabusa likely would've run regardless of whether or not Inouye wrote that letter, it's not like she's getting any younger.

Except that the question is "what does Hanabusa have that Schatz doesn't" it seems there are no ideological differences between the two and the election is split along racial and generational lines rather than policy or ideas
But why should Schatz be entitled to this seat? He only got it because the unpopular Governor wanted him to have it...he wasn't elected to it. Hanabusa and anyone else who wants it should have every right to try - let The People have the final say.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Mideast Voting Booth: July 2014 Elections on: July 20, 2014, 04:56:38 pm
[ 1 ] Inks.LWC 
[  2 ] Spiral
[  3 ] Jack Enderman
[  4 ] Cassius
[   ] Write-In: ____________
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: July 17, 2014, 10:21:00 pm
http://www.emporiagazette.com/news/article_cc3c7b40-84ed-5dbd-8aa9-4d3be15b546e.html

Bob Dole is making another statewide tour through Kansas - he has had several in the past year. With signs indicating that the Kansas caucus may be more relevant in 2016 than in past elections, could this be a sign that Senator Dole is gearing up for one more run?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Willard "Mitt" Romney 2016 megathread on: July 17, 2014, 10:09:07 pm
An ad discussing how many of Romney's predictions have come true:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A1UQbW1UB8
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who is the most electable among GOP battleground states candidates? on: July 17, 2014, 09:59:55 pm
Stuck with Cassidy as he is pretty generic.

That being said, Kingston puzzles me. He seems like the perfect candidate, yet is still trailing Nunn in the polls. I know Nunn has the name recognition, but both he and Perdue seem like pretty solid candidates.
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