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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - August 2014 on: Today at 05:16:14 pm
Mitt Romney
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: July 2014 Federal Special Election - At-Large Senate on: Today at 05:01:19 pm
1. JCL
2. WrathOfTheGods
3. Spiral
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Rebirth of the Right on: July 30, 2014, 09:24:01 pm
In general, I question a few things here, but ultimately it looks pretty good.  Keep up the nice work!
Always open to suggestions!

I would've picked Martinez for a nice East/West uniter, but Rubio is pretty good too.
Trying to shake things up a bit and not pick Martinez. That being said, I thing there is a somewhat good chance that she refuses the spot in 2016 like she did in 2012, especially if it looks like Hillary is going to easily win.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Could Tom Ridge be on the 2016 ticket? on: July 30, 2014, 04:34:22 pm
He would be 71 in 2016. I don't see him surviving a primary, but if a conservative wins the nomination and is looking for someone to help with foreign policy, he could be a possibility. Also would provide a small boost in Pennsylvania.

That being said, white male/white male in 2016 isn't a good idea for the GOP.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Rebirth of the Right on: July 30, 2014, 04:12:01 pm
July 7th, 2016:
Speculation had been mounting for weeks about who Governor Kasich would select as his Vice President, and days before, campaign officials stated that a "very special announcement" would be made on July 7th in Richmond, Virginia. Speculation was primarily centered around New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Rumors began to fly several hours before the event when it was discovered that Oklahoma Senator TW Shannon had flown to Virginia earlier that day. A name speculated early and often was Susana Martinez, but an announcement in late June from her office that she had no interest in being Vice President halted that discussion.

Today I'm here to bring a second person onto the ticket. Now, for the past few months I have been traveling the country, hearing from struggling Americans about how we can put this country back on the right track. Our economy has yet to fully recover, our foreign policy is in shambles, and many have just lost hope. The person I have selected as Vice President is one of integrity, a man of faith, and someone who shares in my vision to put America back on the right track. My friends, please join me in welcoming the next Vice President of the United States, Senator Marco Rubio! - Governor John Kasich


Can Kasich/Rubio lead the GOP to victory?

It's clear what Kasich's motive was here - find someone with charisma, something he lacks. Don't choose another white male, and keep the Electoral College in mind when making a decision. Florida and Ohio are the two most important states each election, and the GOP now has an advantage by having a candidate from each. - Sean Hannity

Governor Kasich missed a key opportunity here by not selecting a woman for Vice President. He had several strong options, especially Ayotte who would have provided some foreign policy experience. Rubio is an OK choice, but he does not to invigorate the campaign. - Erin Burnett

July 11th-14th:
The RNC Convention kicks off in Cleveland, Ohio. The convention's theme is "A Stronger America", and various marketing ploys are used to highlight Ohio's strengthening economy.

Speakers:
Night One: Marsha Blackburn, Brian Sandoval, TW Shannon (Primetime), Karen Waldbillig (Primetime)
Night Two: Kelly Ayotte, Pat McCrory, Cory Garnder (Primtime), Rand Paul (Primetime)
Night Three: Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez (Primetime), Marco Rubio (Primetime)
Night Four: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rob Portman, John Kasich (Primetime)


The GOP convention is considered a success to many - is the party fully unified against Clinton?

National Poll:
John Kasich/Marco Rubio - 48%
Hillary Clinton/? ? ? - 46%

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Rebirth of the Right on: July 30, 2014, 03:40:54 pm
Ahh, just realized the final GOP primary map somehow didn't make it into the last update. Bummer! Sad



Clinton Prospective VP Options:
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick
Virginia Senator Mark Warner
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren
San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker
Missouri Governor Jay Nixon
Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley

Kasich Prospective VP Options:
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker
Former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley
New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte
Florida Senator Marco Rubio
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott
Oklahoma Senator TW Shannon


7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Coalition for the Protection of Gun Rights (CPGR)- Endorsement vote! on: July 30, 2014, 12:11:54 pm
Assuming we are only endorsing one...Huh

At-Large Special Election Ballot
[ x ] JCL
[ ] Spiral
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the downsides to Joni Ernst as a GOP vice presidential choice? on: July 30, 2014, 12:45:13 am
Who?  That's the downside.
I don't buy this argument. Palin was a complete unknown and provided a huge boost to the McCain campaign after he picked her. Her eventual problems are obvious to everyone, but as long as someone is properly vetted unlike Palin, I don't see much of an issue with it. It generates excitement as it is a name the base hasn't really heard of before.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 30, 2014, 12:38:55 am
The primary will occur in less than a week. Here is a rundown of what to expect...

Governor's Race - How well will Sam Brownback do? He's likely going to be Jennifer Winn, but the question is by how much? A poll by KSN/SurveyUSA last month had him only up by 18. He has been actively campaigning since, as well as had some ads going, and their poll last week had it at 60-30. How well he does could indicate how well he will do in November - many people who will be voting for Winn (who has ran a surprisingly active campaign) are only doing so out of protest of Brownback and that number will likely reflect what % of the GOP vote Davis can expect in November.

Secretary of State - Kris Kobach is probably going to win here - he is the former state chair of the KSGOP and very popular with the base. Scott Morgan has ran from the left, but he has raised very valid concerns about Kobach that will likely transfer over to the General Election when he faced Schodorf. Almost every newspaper in the state has endorsed Morgan.

Insurance Commissioner - It has been an absolute free-for-all to replace Sandy Praeger. Clark Shultz seems to be the establishment candidates and boasts quite a few endorsements as well as almost all newspapers. That being said, I haven't seen too active of a campaign from him, with little to no signage in eastern Kansas (where most of the votes are). Beverly Gossage  has been running a grassroots campaign for over a year now and seems to be the favorite of many Tea Partiers. Ken Selzer also has a strong base in JoCo and could potentially pull out a squeeker here. I don't see Toplikar or Powell winning, but Powell could pick up a surprising number of votes, potentially pushing into 3rd place. Your hometown is listed on the ballot, and considering that a high number of voters won't know who they are voting for, he has the advantage of being the only candidate from the Wichita area and is from a more recognizable western town (Shultz is from a small western town).

No clue who will win this - Gossage seems to have the edge here in Douglas County, along with JoCo, but I'm not sure where she stands in the rest of the state. My inclination tells me that Shultz narrowly beats her. A bummer for Gossage, and she would probably win in a head-to-head race.

ANOTHER NOTE: I'm already guessing myself on saying Shultz will win...there has been no polling on this race, but Gossage has won most straw polls I know of, which is certainly a good sign when considering the primary electorate.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Pollstergeist: August 2014 At-Large Senate Special Election Mock on: July 30, 2014, 12:14:19 am
7 candidates for 1 seat? Holy Toledo!

[  ] Dr. Cynic (Lab-PA)
[ 1 ] JohanusCalvinusLibertas (Fed-IN)
[  ] Matt from VT (TPP-VT)
[  ] Mechaman (Bad-IN)
[ 4 ] Poirot (Ind-NY)
[ 2 ] Spiral (DR-MO)
[ 3 ] WrathOfTheGods (Ind-KS)
[  ] Write-in: ______________________________
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Coalition for the Protection of Gun Rights (CPGR)- Endorsement Announced! on: July 30, 2014, 12:12:27 am
As a member of this coalition and someone who has witnessed JCL's work for years, I find it surprising that he isn't being endorsed as well in this race.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Federalist Party: June 2014 Convention (48 HR VOTE STARTED, VOTE NOW!!!) on: July 29, 2014, 07:09:38 pm
Abstaining
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Spiral for At-Large Senate on: July 29, 2014, 07:07:23 pm
You have my endorsement! Smiley
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2014 on: July 29, 2014, 05:28:47 pm
You can't just exclude certain states. Granted, Obama didn't campaign there, but the fact remains that more people voted for Hillary than Obama.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / 2016 Hypothetical: Clinton vs. Biden on: July 29, 2014, 05:27:11 pm
Here's a hypothetical:
In September 2014, President Obama is assassinated. Vice President Biden takes over and starts with high approvals - Democrats are able to retain the Senate and actually pick up a couple seats in the House as a result.

By March 2015, Biden's approvals are in the low 50's. Hillary Clinton, citing the importance of letting the Democratic voters have a choice and the need for a new direction, announces that she will be challenging Biden, who has decided to seek a full term. How does the primary play out?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror on: July 29, 2014, 05:14:51 pm
New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Hendrix College/Talk Business on 2014-07-25

Summary: D: 42%, R: 44%, I: 7%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR Congressional Races 2014 on: July 29, 2014, 05:08:36 pm
Poll just released on Twitter...

Cotton - 44
Pryor - 42

http://talkbusiness.net/2014/07/u-s-senate-poll-tom-cotton-44-mark-pryor-42/#sthash.fSqOlcF3.uxfs
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: KS-02: Anzalone-Lizst-Grove (D): how the christ on: July 28, 2014, 10:53:31 pm
I don't find this surprising at all...

You're right - Brownback is bringing everyone down. That being said, taking into account that this is a Democratic internal, I am not overly surprised by the results. The 2nd lost all of Manhattan and picked up all of Lawrence - this will be the first election to reflect that. This is only an R+7 district. I've maintained the belief for a while that Jenkins will only win this race by around ten points, and this poll seems to back that up. A bit of a drop from 2012 reflected by Brownback's low approvals and the effect of redistricting.

Wakefield has a pretty excited base behind her, though I think Jenkins is going to be able to use her financial advantage to ensure that Wakefield doesn't get the moderate and somewhat conservative voters she needs to win here. Wakefield and Davis both have a slight problem and it is only a matter of time before it is exposed - both go around campaigning as reasonable moderates, yet where they stand on the issues/voting records paints a much different picture.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2014 on: July 28, 2014, 04:02:43 pm
Rubio.

Because youth + diversity + handsome factor > professional accomplishments + experience
Case in point: Obama vs. Hillary '08
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN National: Clinton beats Romney by 13 points on: July 28, 2014, 03:10:14 am
Hillary served as SoS - even Condoleeza Rice had strong approvals as Bush's SoS, if I recall correctly.

Once a General Election campaign begins and Republicans are able to tie Hillary to Obama's policies, her numbers will go down - I think most of us can agree her leads won't hold. It is encouraging to see that there is some buyer's remorse from 2012.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. on: July 28, 2014, 02:57:19 am
I have several disagreements, but considering that it is only July, for future reference, I think it would be beneficial to put them in.

I'll start working on it tomorrow if someone doesn't do it first.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: YouGov/NY Times/CBS News polls of all states with Gov. races on: July 28, 2014, 01:26:16 am
Yeah, Brownback SHOULD be safer than everyone on that list, but he definitely isn't...

Wish I could believe this, but there are just too many flaws. For example, Sullivan gets 0% of the Democratic vote against Begich for AK-SEN...I find that difficult to believe.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win Kansas's GOP Senate primary? on: July 28, 2014, 01:19:23 am
I voted for Pat Roberts and I feel reasonably confident he will win - there isn't the enthusiasm to kick him out like there was for Lugar two years ago.

Not so much that as there isn't the enthusiasm for Wolf that there was for Mourdock (though you live in the state; this is just my impression).
They go hand-in-hand. Mourdock had ran two statewide campaigns and had a base of voters/volunteers from the getgo. He also had a lot to run on - from Lugar's title as "Obama's Favorite Republican", his votes for liberal SC justices, supporting the Dream Act, along with residency issues and being in D.C. forever. In contrast, Wolf didn't have the name recognition/base to start off with, and he really only has Robert's long stint in D.C. to run on - not too many bad votes.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win Kansas's GOP Senate primary? on: July 27, 2014, 10:19:23 pm
I hope it's Wolf so Democrats have a better chance of winning this seat in 2020.
Doesn't make much sense. Polling shows that Chad Taylor would beat Wolf - considering 2020 is an election year and there will be no Governor Brownback, the only chance a Democrat could win is if they are the incumbent or if Wolf is the incumbent Senator. Potentially a win-win for Democrats with Wolf as the nominee, if I'm being honest.

I voted for Pat Roberts and I feel reasonably confident he will win - there isn't the enthusiasm to kick him out like there was for Lugar two years ago.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark Comm/WSB: Carter +7 on: July 25, 2014, 05:44:07 pm
If I were to guess, I say Carter and Perdue win the General. No surprise - Deal is a crook...didn't support him in 2010 and won't this time around either.
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