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December 06, 2016, 03:17:34 am
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Arkansas now trended GOP on: November 16, 2016, 12:54:18 pm
I cleared out my browser's cache, and it's definitely blue (GOP) now. Was pink before.
The dress is white!
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kansas 2018: Jenkins Eying a Run on: November 14, 2016, 10:18:42 pm
Svaty would be a good way for Ds to retouch with rural voters again
Agreed. Overall, the Kansas Democrats need a complete overhaul. I get that having a presidential election hurts them, but Brownback is easily the least popular governor in the country and our legislature has abysmal approval ratings. Republicans were able to oust some of the extreme conservatives in the primaries, but Democrats made weak gains in the legislature, especially the Senate. The state party (from my perspective) appears to be too far to the left. It seeks to appease the liberal Lawrence crowd because that is the base, but forgets that it needs support from all parts of the state to be successful.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kansas 2018: Jenkins Eying a Run on: November 14, 2016, 10:08:47 pm
Was a little hectic last week, so didn't respond.

In my opinion, none of these are "moderate" in the cloth of the moderates who primaried Republicans back in August. I don't think any of these people have been outspoken against Brownback. The nominee will need to be someone who can acknowledge disagreements with the governor without fully condemning him.

Jenkins would probably be considered the most moderate because of her time in the state legislature and has Treasurer. Her record in Congress is conservative, though she does have some bi-partisan achievements to point to. I'd put Derek Schmidt in the same box as Jenkins - overall a likable guy that doesn't seem too conservative. Estes is a bit of a wildcard, but overall I'd lump him with Jenkins and Schmidt.

On the far right you have Kris Kobach and Tim Huelskamp. Kobach, as we all know, has come under fire for his voter I.D. laws and could make a general election tricky for him. Huelskamp is a total loser who is currently deciding whether to rematch Marshall or run for governor - my guess is that few people actually like him and he doesn't run for anything. Colyer is probably DOA as the Lt. Governor, though is far less offensive than Brownback to most voters.

Parkinson won't run and I imagine Davis will. Svaty would definitely be a wildcard - if he had proper funding and organization, I think he could do well, as he'd be able to make a play at rural votes. That was Davis' problem in 2014 and I suspect it will be the same in 2018: he isn't good at connecting with rural areas. His only shot is to run up the margins in eastern Kansas. President Trump's approval ratings will probably have a factor, but overall, I would rate Kansas as Lean Republican.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / SD-GOV: Noem announces bid for Governor on: November 14, 2016, 09:53:49 pm
Congresswoman Kristi Noem (R) has announced her intention to run for governor of South Dakota in 2018.

"I plan to work hard, to push Conservative solutions and to make a difference. Not make a career out of Congress," Noem said in her announcement bid.

Link to announcement video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa99bTrYTCM
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Looks like VA is 100% gone for Republicans. on: November 09, 2016, 03:38:12 am
Tim Kaine factor. I wouldn't say it is gone, yet, though Colorado and Nevada may be, at least for the next couple of elections.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 09, 2016, 02:20:49 am
Not saying, "I told you so," but my last prediction had Trump winning Pennslyvania and the election. Michigan and Wisconsin have been a surprise, though. I predicted this, but am still surprised.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vigo County, IN on: November 09, 2016, 02:18:59 am
I didn't see this until now, but FWIW, I totally expected Trump to win Vigo, even if Clinton had won nationally. This part of Indiana (where I'm from) is tailored perfectly for Trump. Also, a local poll there had Trump up by 20+ points in Vigo, so seeing him win by around 14 points tonight wasn't a surprise.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Kansas 2018: Jenkins Eying a Run on: November 07, 2016, 11:04:53 pm
Because it is never too early...

Kansas may have another competitive gubernatorial race in 2018. Brownback remains to be the least popular governor in the country, so it'll be interesting to see how another Republican does on the ballot.

On the Democratic side, I have heard rumors that Paul Davis is eying another run. Not sure who else Democrats would run that could have a serious shot, though curious to hear what the Kansas Democrats on the forum have to say.

The Republican primary is likely to be a battle. Originally, I expected Mike Pompeo and Lynn Jenkins to battle it out, but Pompeo made a surprising statement today when he essentially endorsed Jenkins for governor. Kris Kobach is also considering a run, though I have heard that he would prefer a spot in the Trump administration or a Senate seat. He wants to become a national figure, and after the struggles Brownback has had, I think he'd prefer taking the Cruz route, though when opportunity knocks...

AG Derek Schmidt is also rumored to be considering a run. I like him and think he'd be a great governor, though not sure he would have the statewide support (despite being a statewide official). Tim Huelskamp (lol) is also said to be considering a run, as well as Treasurer Ron Estes and even Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer, though I highly doubt he actually takes the plunge.

The Senate won't be up, but I expect there will be a lot of primary challenges on the Republican side. Should be another dramatic primary season - thank heavens we don't have a Senate race to deal with.

Will edit this as it progresses. Kansas' primary isn't until August 2018, so we have a while before people will start declaring.

9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict your district on: November 06, 2016, 02:57:48 pm
All Kansas races:

Moran (R, inc.) - 65%
Wiesner (D) - 31%

1st District
Marshall (R) - 74%
LaPolice - 22%

2nd District
Jenkins (R, inc.) - 62%
Potter (D) - 35%

3rd District
Yoder (R, inc.) - 52%
Sidie (D) - 45%

4th District
Pompeo (R, inc.) - 63%
Giroux (D) - 34%
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate Ratings and Predictions - Indiana on: November 05, 2016, 01:03:30 pm
As I've said from the beginning, Todd Young will pull it out. I'm going to say 51-44.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IN-WTHR/HPI: Young +5 on: November 04, 2016, 08:12:02 pm
The people of Indiana should be ashamed of themselves. Completely uneducated morons smh.
John Gregg would agree!
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: WBUR - Ayotte + 6 on: November 03, 2016, 10:06:52 am
The WBUR trend since August is definitely favorable to Ayotte:
August: Hassan +10
September: Hassan +9
October: Hassan +2
November: Ayotte +6
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 6 days out: Who controls the senate? on: November 02, 2016, 10:24:45 pm
I still think Republicans will maintain control. As I've said all along, it looks like Young will pull it out, and I think Heck pulls it out, giving Republicans a 51-49 majority.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WV-MetroNews: Justice +14 on: November 01, 2016, 07:24:54 pm
I'm surprised Cole hasn't tried to utilize Trump more. Considering Trump will likely win by over 30 points here, he should have cut a quick ad on behalf of Cole. Probably would have swayed some voters.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: KY-Cygnal/RunSwitch: Trump +24 on: October 31, 2016, 09:58:15 am
Incumbent Republican Rand Paul has a steady lead heading in to the final week of the campaign, beating his Democratic opponent Jim Gray 52 percent to 42 percent. While Gray is performing better than Clinton, he still has a steep hill to climb in what has been a rather sleepy campaign.

The rural parts of Kentucky are fueling Paulís lead. Paul and Gray are essentially tied in the Louisville media market and in the Lexington and Cincinnati markets combined. But Paul leads by huge margins in Eastern Kentucky (59 percent to 36 percent) and Western Kentucky (64 percent to 32 percent).

Gray is doing better among Democrats than Clinton, but still is getting just 60 percent of his own party while Paul wins 33 percent of them. Paul is winning Republicans 75 percent to 19 percent. In the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell won 91 percent of self-identified Republicans and 17 percent of Democrats during his route of Alison Grimes.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If you were given the ability to predict the exact outcome of 3 senatoral races, on: October 28, 2016, 11:07:11 pm
I must be reading this wrong, I interpret this as I get to decide the outcome of three races. I voted for Connecticut, Vermont and Washington. If we win even some of the toss-up races and then (somehow) won these three, Republicans are virtually guaranteed the Senate.

If it is just "What races would I like to know the result of in advance," it would be Indiana, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, because I see those three races as being the most unpredictable.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: October 01, 2016, 03:17:51 pm
Thank you everyone for your kindness - it means the world to have a place of support to come back to. <3
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: September 30, 2016, 11:53:45 pm
Due to events that have arisen in my life, I will be withdrawing from the forum for an undetermined period of time. I ask for your thoughts and prayers.

19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: September 30, 2016, 11:51:53 pm
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Senator Tmthforu94 on: September 30, 2016, 11:51:09 pm
I received a call earlier this week that will change the trajectory of my life. I had hoped Atlasia would be able to serve as a good distraction. The way the campaign turned this evening made me realize that won't be the case. "When they go low, you go high," but in this case, I'm putting myself before this forum and bowing out.

Congratulations, Adam, you got what you wanted. Best of luck, Blair. While you may think poorly of me, I think highly of you. Thanks to Leinad, Peebs, DFW, Yankee and everyone else for your friendship and kindness. I hope to stay in touch.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Important Food Poll on: September 30, 2016, 11:23:05 pm
Pizza. It's good for one slice, but after that it just takes like an ocean of tomato sauce to me. I still don't understand how fried chicken is number one.

It's a bunch of dumb grease and bread after a few bites,even with the best "rubs" and sauces in the world, and chicken is inherently a bland meat.

The other options have much more complexity and variation, thus giving more mileage.

Also the best "Luther" is miles ahead of the best rub.

The real question is, why are Tacos in 2nd?
correct. it boggles me why so many establishments choose to use white meat for fried chicken. that is the 2nd largest problem (behind the flour and egg thing)
Great point - I usually prefer getting dark meat instead of white. While white can be good at some places, it is often too dry.
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Labor Party HQ (Siren Appointed) on: September 30, 2016, 10:59:42 pm
Siren (I-GA) is appointed to Clyde's seat in the House and will be caucusing with Labor
Another Southerner heads to Congress! Congrats, Siren!
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Important Food Poll on: September 30, 2016, 01:07:36 pm
11 heathens voted for tacos? Where are the pitchforks and torches?
I'm so disappointed in this forum.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SB 2016-026: A Real Living Wage Act (Final Vote) on: September 30, 2016, 08:39:19 am
This has enough votes to pass. Senators have 24 hours to change their votes.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: October 2016 Federalist Convention (Delegates Sign-in) on: September 30, 2016, 06:06:46 am
x Tmthforu94, hopefully the next President of Atlasia! Smiley
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