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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Shattered on: July 15, 2017, 10:06:31 pm
Enjoying your timelines, as always. Keep it up! Smiley
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you drink alcoholic beverages? on: July 12, 2017, 10:02:38 pm
yes
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 Runoff on: April 01, 2017, 12:03:55 am
I've always loved Karen Handel - supported her against Deal in 2010 and Perdue in 2014. I hope she finally breaks through and wins a race.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy birthday tmthforu94! on: March 16, 2017, 10:03:18 pm
Thank you all for your kind words. Smiley <3 I had a wonderful birthday!
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your non trolling 2018 Predictions on: February 10, 2017, 11:58:15 pm
Gubernatorial: Democrats make big gains, picking up between 5-10 seats and winning back a good number of seats in legislatures. As of now, I'd predict New Mexico, Florida (barely), Illinois Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine flipping.
House: Democrats pick up 5-10 seats
Senate: Republicans gain three seats, I'll make a ridiculously early map:
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-2 Jenkins retiring on: February 01, 2017, 11:13:24 pm
Wow, she's only 53.   Any reason given as to why?

Sweet, sweet, K Street $$$
Not at all. Her daughter just got married - she's excited to be a Grandma. She wants to be in Kansas permanently.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-4 Special Election called for April 11th on: January 24, 2017, 09:34:54 pm
I believe the district committee will select the nominee, there isn't a primary. Tiahrt didn't make friends when he tried to challenge Pompeo in 2014. While he would have a good shot in a primary, I think Estes is the definite favorite and should win the nomination and the election with relative ease. Estes has a lot of roots in Wichita - he used to be treasurer for Sedgwick County.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Barack Obama on: January 20, 2017, 05:30:38 pm
Freedom Fighter. I don't think he was an effective president, but the way he handled the transition was classy and showed that he puts country first. He also just seems like a fun guy - I'd love to hang out with him. The Obama's were an inspiring First Family and I wish them the very best.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Angel, Mourdock, Akin, O'Donnell, Buck, and McMahon got elected to the Senate on: December 19, 2016, 07:37:21 pm
If Sharron Angle, Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, Ken Buck, and Linda McMahon all managed to get elected to the Senate, how would things have played out and what would today look like?
- Sharron Angle would have lost in 2016 by a substantial margin.
- Mourdock would probably have mediocre approval ratings and would be vulnerable in 2018.
- Akin would probably be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2018 and would be DOA in a general election, especially against someone like Kander.
- O'Donnell and McMahon would have been DOA in 2016 simply by being Republicans in strong Democratic states. O'Donnell probably would have been wiped out, though I could see McMahon putting up a decent fight.
- Ken Buck probably loses in 2016 by a similar margin as Glenn lost.

Those are for the specific candidates mentioned. With more Republicans to defend in 2016, it would mean that resources would have to be spread thinner, which may have caused a closer margin in Pennsylvania and other states where the Republican narrowly won.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Theory on Why Coats Retired on: December 17, 2016, 10:36:33 pm
You're absolutely right. Coats was recruited to run in 2010 because Republicans didn't think Hostettler or Stutzman could beat Bayh. Had Coats not ran in 2010, Bayh probably would have ran for reelection since it would have been much easier to beat Hostettler/Stutzman.

Coats had actually been raising money in 2014/2015 and was helping local candidates, so initially, word on the street was that he was thinking of running again. I think he decided against it when he got wind that Holcomb and Young wanted it, since he knew both would be able to keep the seat for Republicans. Had Bayh announced early on, though, I definitely could see Coats sticking around for another term to prevent Bayh from taking the seat. Perhaps work out a deal with the Republican Governor to retire after a couple years and pick his own successor.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump vs Tulsi Gabbard on: December 17, 2016, 09:59:51 pm
All of these hypotheticals are incredibly difficult to predict four years out with an incoming president who is so divisive, so this is assuming Trump has done a fair job as president and has an approval rating somewhere in the mid-40s.



I really like Gabbard, but I don't think she quite has the experience to be president. Being a non-Christian will hurt, and I think she could run into minor issues with getting the establishment fully behind her.

A couple of points on the map: I don't think Trump will win Michigan in 2020. Democrats were caught off guard here in 2016, and in an election where both sides are heavily contesting it, I think the Democrat will win in a pretty even election. Wisconsin also will be close, but I think Trump will increase his strength with working whites against Gabbard, which will also flip Maine and Minnesota.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How Popular Will All The New Governors Be? on: December 12, 2016, 01:02:01 pm
I see Greitens as being pretty divisive, more in the mold of Rick Scott / Scott Walker. North Carolina seems to be pretty polarized now, so I don't see Cooper having very high favorables. I think Holcomb will be more in the mold of Daniels and focus more on economic issues, not social issues, which is what plagued Pence.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Thoughts on the final Trend map? on: December 08, 2016, 09:47:34 am
1) Kansas - not really apparent why it would trend to Hillary.
Kansas is a deeply religious, evangelical state, so you had some Christians who were turned off by Trump and supported third parties. Additionally, Brownback has been extremely unpopular and all of the State Senate races were up, so Democrats had a better ground game than usual in attempting to win some seats in the legislature. There was also some national funding from the DCCC and other organizations to help Sidie in KS-03, which in turn, helped Clinton win the 3rd district.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Arkansas now trended GOP on: November 16, 2016, 12:54:18 pm
I cleared out my browser's cache, and it's definitely blue (GOP) now. Was pink before.
The dress is white!
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kansas 2018: Jenkins Eying a Run on: November 14, 2016, 10:18:42 pm
Svaty would be a good way for Ds to retouch with rural voters again
Agreed. Overall, the Kansas Democrats need a complete overhaul. I get that having a presidential election hurts them, but Brownback is easily the least popular governor in the country and our legislature has abysmal approval ratings. Republicans were able to oust some of the extreme conservatives in the primaries, but Democrats made weak gains in the legislature, especially the Senate. The state party (from my perspective) appears to be too far to the left. It seeks to appease the liberal Lawrence crowd because that is the base, but forgets that it needs support from all parts of the state to be successful.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kansas 2018: Jenkins Eying a Run on: November 14, 2016, 10:08:47 pm
Was a little hectic last week, so didn't respond.

In my opinion, none of these are "moderate" in the cloth of the moderates who primaried Republicans back in August. I don't think any of these people have been outspoken against Brownback. The nominee will need to be someone who can acknowledge disagreements with the governor without fully condemning him.

Jenkins would probably be considered the most moderate because of her time in the state legislature and has Treasurer. Her record in Congress is conservative, though she does have some bi-partisan achievements to point to. I'd put Derek Schmidt in the same box as Jenkins - overall a likable guy that doesn't seem too conservative. Estes is a bit of a wildcard, but overall I'd lump him with Jenkins and Schmidt.

On the far right you have Kris Kobach and Tim Huelskamp. Kobach, as we all know, has come under fire for his voter I.D. laws and could make a general election tricky for him. Huelskamp is a total loser who is currently deciding whether to rematch Marshall or run for governor - my guess is that few people actually like him and he doesn't run for anything. Colyer is probably DOA as the Lt. Governor, though is far less offensive than Brownback to most voters.

Parkinson won't run and I imagine Davis will. Svaty would definitely be a wildcard - if he had proper funding and organization, I think he could do well, as he'd be able to make a play at rural votes. That was Davis' problem in 2014 and I suspect it will be the same in 2018: he isn't good at connecting with rural areas. His only shot is to run up the margins in eastern Kansas. President Trump's approval ratings will probably have a factor, but overall, I would rate Kansas as Lean Republican.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / SD-GOV: Noem announces bid for Governor on: November 14, 2016, 09:53:49 pm
Congresswoman Kristi Noem (R) has announced her intention to run for governor of South Dakota in 2018.

Quote
"I plan to work hard, to push Conservative solutions and to make a difference. Not make a career out of Congress," Noem said in her announcement bid.
http://www.keloland.com/news/article/politics/rep-kristi-noem-announces-governor-bid

Link to announcement video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa99bTrYTCM
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Looks like VA is 100% gone for Republicans. on: November 09, 2016, 03:38:12 am
Tim Kaine factor. I wouldn't say it is gone, yet, though Colorado and Nevada may be, at least for the next couple of elections.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 09, 2016, 02:20:49 am
Not saying, "I told you so," but my last prediction had Trump winning Pennslyvania and the election. Michigan and Wisconsin have been a surprise, though. I predicted this, but am still surprised.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vigo County, IN on: November 09, 2016, 02:18:59 am
I didn't see this until now, but FWIW, I totally expected Trump to win Vigo, even if Clinton had won nationally. This part of Indiana (where I'm from) is tailored perfectly for Trump. Also, a local poll there had Trump up by 20+ points in Vigo, so seeing him win by around 14 points tonight wasn't a surprise.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Kansas 2018: Jenkins Eying a Run on: November 07, 2016, 11:04:53 pm
Because it is never too early...



Kansas may have another competitive gubernatorial race in 2018. Brownback remains to be the least popular governor in the country, so it'll be interesting to see how another Republican does on the ballot.

On the Democratic side, I have heard rumors that Paul Davis is eying another run. Not sure who else Democrats would run that could have a serious shot, though curious to hear what the Kansas Democrats on the forum have to say.

The Republican primary is likely to be a battle. Originally, I expected Mike Pompeo and Lynn Jenkins to battle it out, but Pompeo made a surprising statement today when he essentially endorsed Jenkins for governor. Kris Kobach is also considering a run, though I have heard that he would prefer a spot in the Trump administration or a Senate seat. He wants to become a national figure, and after the struggles Brownback has had, I think he'd prefer taking the Cruz route, though when opportunity knocks...

AG Derek Schmidt is also rumored to be considering a run. I like him and think he'd be a great governor, though not sure he would have the statewide support (despite being a statewide official). Tim Huelskamp (lol) is also said to be considering a run, as well as Treasurer Ron Estes and even Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer, though I highly doubt he actually takes the plunge.

The Senate won't be up, but I expect there will be a lot of primary challenges on the Republican side. Should be another dramatic primary season - thank heavens we don't have a Senate race to deal with.

Will edit this as it progresses. Kansas' primary isn't until August 2018, so we have a while before people will start declaring.


22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict your district on: November 06, 2016, 02:57:48 pm
All Kansas races:

Senate
Moran (R, inc.) - 65%
Wiesner (D) - 31%

1st District
Marshall (R) - 74%
LaPolice - 22%

2nd District
Jenkins (R, inc.) - 62%
Potter (D) - 35%

3rd District
Yoder (R, inc.) - 52%
Sidie (D) - 45%

4th District
Pompeo (R, inc.) - 63%
Giroux (D) - 34%
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate Ratings and Predictions - Indiana on: November 05, 2016, 01:03:30 pm
As I've said from the beginning, Todd Young will pull it out. I'm going to say 51-44.
24  Election Archive / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IN-WTHR/HPI: Young +5 on: November 04, 2016, 08:12:02 pm
The people of Indiana should be ashamed of themselves. Completely uneducated morons smh.
John Gregg would agree!
25  Election Archive / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: WBUR - Ayotte + 6 on: November 03, 2016, 10:06:52 am
The WBUR trend since August is definitely favorable to Ayotte:
August: Hassan +10
September: Hassan +9
October: Hassan +2
November: Ayotte +6
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