Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 28, 2016, 07:16:18 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 60
151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Carter do so well in the plains? on: April 21, 2015, 08:15:17 pm
The humble peanut farmer played really well in a lot of rural areas. But still, Ford in the last days was able to close a huge gap between him and carter from a double digit carter victory to a 2% only margin for carter. Had those GOP voters didnt come home then carter might of won those states in the great plains.

And if you were wondering about the south, a lot of southerners were outraged over the watergate scandal. Southerners tend to give more of a backlash towards scandals than other parts of the country which was why bush in 2000 was able to swing all of the southern states that clinton won, to him by claiming he'd restore "honor and integrity to the White House"

Also in the south, he actually got out tons of evangelical christians to vote in the south by emphasizing being a born again christian. These white evangelicals were able to counter the other white southerners who voted on racial issues.  And they later switched to the GOP when they found out that carter was not the evangelical christian they'd hope he would be when in office.
Ford closed the lead gradually from the DNC (down 62-29% after).  The Eastern Europe comment slowed the momentum and Carter foolishly dealing with Playboy gave Ford a second wind. 
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Colorado: Strange gender gap on: April 19, 2015, 09:59:03 pm
I don't have the answer, but FL is similarly odd in its gender gap.  Then again, the state of FL rapidly changes every four years.  FL women tend to be more Republican than FL men.
153  General Politics / Economics / Re: US adds 126k jobs in March as Opposed to 245k Expected, Unemployment at 5.5% on: April 19, 2015, 09:57:25 pm
I had dinner with a friend in Lauderdale who is a recruiter for financial professionals. He was telling me last night that during Q1 and especially March, things seemed to really tighten up.  Many of his clients pulled jobs that were out there.  He's hoping this is only a temporary blip, but he was surprised how much things tightened in this past quarter compared to Q4 last year.
154  General Politics / Economics / Re: When is the next global recession and how severe is it? on: April 19, 2015, 09:52:17 pm
Before the '16 election, I believe we sink into a recession, although I don't think it's the "beginning of the end" depression. That is coming, but it won't be this go around.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / 1988 - California without Reagan's help...does Bush 41 hang on? on: April 19, 2015, 09:20:47 pm
Or, as we've said over and over, was the 47 electoral votes Bush won there truly the "final gift from Reagan?"

It's so interesting how close CA was in so many races from '52-'88 and the Democrats only won it once during the LBJ landslide.
156  General Discussion / History / Re: Why was John Kerry such a compelling candidate for the Dem Establishment in '04? on: April 19, 2015, 08:45:01 am
The anti-war sentiment should have worked a lot more to his advantage than it did.  The Swift Boat deal really hurt him. Like Dukakis in '88, he wasn't quick enough to respond to how he was being defined and it hurt him. 

He was still only one state away from winning.
157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-Sen: Salmon, Schweikert considering on: April 07, 2015, 07:59:53 am
Is this the same "Salmon" that lost to Napolitano in the 2002 gubernatorial? While those races are more bi-partisan, I'd be careful if I were the GOP.
158  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NY-Gov 2018: Schneiderman considering Cuomo challenge? on: April 06, 2015, 09:57:58 pm
NY in 2018 won't be what it was back in '94 during the "ABC" campaign (Anyone but Cuomo - Mario). 

Pataki was aided then and again in '02 by Tom Golisano's third party entrance.  With just a two man race, almost impossible and the GOP bench is so weak, it's scary.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: describe a Nixon 1960, Humphrey 1968 voter on: April 03, 2015, 08:40:52 am
Those who simply didn't care for Richard Nixon and were fatigued by him by '68. 
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / In how many states does your vote "really matter?" on: April 03, 2015, 08:40:07 am
I suppose this goes back to the old, is the electoral college still a good way to elect the president? In this day of polarization, probably 35 states are decided for 2016 as we speak today. 

We complain that only 50-55% of Americans on average go to the polls during an election year, but that's pretty sad if you ask me. 

Yes, there are some states that have voted for one party but remain halfway competitive (i.e. PA, AZ, GA, IA, WI, etc.), but there are just way too many states out of play already.  Then again, in the days of the solid Democratic South, the same could be said. 
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth in on: March 31, 2015, 07:05:22 am
Kirk will likely need a middle/left third party candidate to take 5%.  His ceiling is very low to begin with and hundreds of thousands more Democrats will turnout in the presidential year.  It's not looking good.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Gore overperformed in Florida on: March 05, 2015, 08:42:53 pm
No. He didn't overperform.  The demographic and population movements in FL favor Democrats and has been since the late 80s.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What can Republicans do to be competitive in the Pacific Northwest again? on: March 01, 2015, 10:55:33 am
In OR, the GOP is beyond dead.  They have NOBODY and they have nobody elected at any statewide level.  In WA, the GOP has put through some decent candidates.  The problem is, WA Gov races are in presidential years. Otherwise, Rossi wins in 2004 and possibly 2008. 

The other problem is that the WA GOP is very conservative.  So, each candidate seems to make the same mistake as moving too far right in the primary and then trying to moderate for the general election....too late!
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Massachusetts trends on: March 01, 2015, 10:53:47 am
The last two GOP candidates are the types (so they seemed) that could possibly get some cross-over voting.  I agree that MA is not the most Democratic state in the country any longer.  Unlike in many blue states, the GOP in MA has a pulse.
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How will Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Charlie Baker (R-MA) do as governors? on: February 16, 2015, 10:34:06 pm
I think the big issue facing any statewide Republican in MD is that a very solid percentage (probably 45% of those that turnout) will NEVER support a GOP candidate no matter who is in office, what they've done, etc....the "R" next to their name is the only thing that matters.  The ceiling for statewide Republicans in MD (not that there have been many lately) is very low.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a Ford 76, Anderson 80, Reagan 84, and Dukakis 88 voter on: February 15, 2015, 10:51:38 pm
Northeastern republican and small business owner who was realizing that Big Business under Reagan was bad news for many smaller businesses. Corporate America as we know it today started it's drive in the Reagan years. 

The irony is, there were plenty of Reagan voters in '80 that voted for Mondale in '84.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Kansas-1988 on: February 15, 2015, 10:49:52 pm
Farm crisis of the 80s.  If you look at the changes from '84 to '88, Bush lost his biggest chunks in the Plains. 
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do Elections Generally Close Hard for the Winning Party? on: February 09, 2015, 11:37:16 pm
It's tough to say.  Early voting in many states is definitely throwing off a lot of polls.  That we know.  In the past, we tended to see a "tightening" of the polls as Election Day approached and of course, you always have a "coming home" effect of the majority party in the state.

It's a good question though
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should anyone GOPer in the current "group" scare the Democrats? on: January 30, 2015, 12:13:18 pm
And keep in mind, before we all say, "watch the economy and that's usually how the race ends up", that seemed to go somewhat out the door in '12 where the economy was still on pretty shaky ground and yet the incumbents won by a relatively safe margin.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Should anyone GOPer in the current "group" scare the Democrats? on: January 30, 2015, 11:35:33 am
I understand that at this point in the game, the odds of getting an outsider and a young, fresh face in there isn't likely.  Those usually enter the race a year before and thus, you have the "establishment" being talked about at this point, similar to Hillary Clinton on the Democrats' side.

That being said, I just look at some of these candidates from the Republican side (as of now) and just roll my eyes, and I'm the type of voter that for the right candidate, will still vote Republican.  All I can think to myself is, how in the heck will any of these people, many who either have a bad last name (i.e. Bush) or who already have bad raps (i.e. Palin, possibly Cruz) going to appeal to:

1) Moderate voters
2) Young voters
3) Minorities

We know, this was the key to Romney's defeat in '12.  In addition, already the line of "wasn't conservative enough", the broken-record used by the GOP after every failed election is being thrown around and it's very old.
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 MA Senate race on: January 17, 2015, 10:57:16 pm
Bill Weld found out the hard way back in '96, just two years after being re-elected to a second term as governor by a landslide.  Assuming Baker is popular, he should take note.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did your grandparents vote? on: January 16, 2015, 09:49:29 am
Typical northeastern republicans...voted GOP until the mid 80s and then slowly drifted to the Democratic Party.  My granddad was actually a staunch republican who never voted Democratically.  Ironically, the first time he voted for a Democrat at the top of the ticket was the 49 state landslide in '84.  He was a small business owner and thought Corporate America was bad news (who would have known?).  Grandma followed.
173  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 MA Senate race on: January 08, 2015, 10:25:02 am
In a presidential, there will be almost no chance to win that seat.  The only way a republican has a chance to break even 40% is if she's not running and the Democrats' choice isn't exactly a good one.  Other than that, forget it.
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen. 2016 Grapevine on: January 02, 2015, 04:30:53 pm
One of the things Mark Kirk must have going for him is "recognition" from IL voters.  Do enough voters know who he is and what he stands for? If so, he's got a far better shot to pull 5-7% of the Democrats from the top of the ticket to go his way and possibly win a full term. If not though, he's going to have a far tougher time.  It's going to be tough either way given the turnout in a presidential year in blue IL.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Walker's reelection in badgerland wasn't all that impressive on: December 31, 2014, 10:44:48 am
Someone as polarizing as him wasn't going to win "big" in a toss-up state that at the presidential level, leans bluish.  It wasn't going to happen. His victory margin doesn't surprise me in the least and was actually larger than I expected.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 60


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines