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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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151  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Well, does the Florida Democratic Party blow another one (through Crist?) on: August 28, 2014, 07:06:46 am
Why exactly is the Florida Democratic Party so incompetent?
Jeb Bush was smart.  He knew the state was changing and he completely re-shaped the statewide GOP, its workforce, etc.  Meanwhile, the statewide Democrats just got old and fat on their behinds.
152  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Well, does the Florida Democratic Party blow another one (through Crist?) on: August 27, 2014, 11:51:06 am
I think we can agree that the FL Democratic Party is one of the worst statewide parties in the country, particularly with how important of a state FL is politically and nationally.  While Democrats have done well nationally in FL, the statewide Democratic Party has blown several races they shouldn't have lost over the years (particularly since Jeb Bush re-vamped the statewide GOP during his gov. tenure). 

Does the FL Democratic Party prove once again they have no chips on the table and no clue? Honestly, I think the answer already, is yes considering that Crist of all people is their candidate, and coming from Palm Beach County, I know plenty of hardcore Democrats there who hold their nose to him.
153  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA: Gov. Scott (R) up 3 on: August 19, 2014, 02:15:22 pm
The statewide Democratic party in FL is just THAT bad folks.  There's no other way around it.  It's one of the worst run statewide parties in the country and considering how important the ground game is in Florida and how important it's become nationally, it's embarrassing.
154  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 15, 2014, 06:56:41 am
Amazing how when I looked back at all the polls from the 2010 race, Brady didn't trail in a single poll from August on and still lost.  That race was highly polled too.  Brady must have lost the late-deciders (the "come homers") 90/10 to blow that race.

It's amazing how from some of the posts within this discussion, the perception of the total incompetence of the GOP in IL
155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 14, 2014, 11:28:45 am
Keep in mind, for those saying the Democratic "coming home" effect is overrated, Moseley-Braun was within a week or so back in '98 from beating Fitzgerald with her furious last minute surge, coming from 15 pts down to losing by three.  Fitzgerald disappeared the last few weeks, which was a huge mistake, but the fact that she almost stole that race shouldn't be forgotten.
156  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Rasmussen: Brownback trailing by 10 on: August 13, 2014, 07:53:46 am
It's way too early to start celebrating and the minority party always has to worry about the "coming home" effect.  The good news is, KS has a history of a nasty split between its moderate GOP wing and the conservatives and Brownback has done a nice job of alienating the moderates, who have a track record of supporting Democrats in past races. 
157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 13, 2014, 07:52:29 am
IL Democrats in Cook furiously come home at the end.  It's been that way time and time and time again in many of these races where it looks like the GOP candidate is either far ahead, or with a smaller lead, but is likely to win.

I still believe at the end of the day, Quinn pulls this out.
158  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Gravis: Tie in Wisconsin on: August 12, 2014, 08:02:13 am
Keep in mind that in WI, Democrats always seem to get a last second bump due to the "same day registration" issue, which has dogged the GOP there for years.  That fact may have cost Bush the state in '04 (and nearly the presidency had OH fallen to Kerry) and in '10, both GOP wins were far tighter than the final polls and predications showed.
159  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Rasmussen: After primary, Sen. Roberts (R) in trouble on: August 11, 2014, 12:36:45 pm
At the top of the ticket (and for a Senatorial race), Roberts will likely win.  Since it's a national implicated race, most GOPers in KS will likely hold their nose and vote for Roberts.  Where they may break and cross-over, is the gubernational race, which for this year, has no bearance nationally.
160  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: Hart Research/AARP: Pryor leads by 5 on: August 11, 2014, 12:35:29 pm
I still believe Pryor pulls this one out for an important Democratic win in the south in Nov.
161  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Mellman Group (D): Quinn's internal shows him losing on: August 11, 2014, 12:34:36 pm
Internal polls are worthless because polls are theoretically supposed to eliminate bias.  Why bother with this? I do believe Quinn pulls it out in Nov (given the huge "coming home" effect of Democrats in Cooke), but internal polls are the biggest bunch of nonense.  If his internal is showing him down 1 (even by statistica analysis), then I can near guarantee you he's down somewhere around 10 pts right now, which is where other polls are showing the race at as we speak.

162  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Chicago Sun Times/WAA (R): Rauner (R) up 13 on: August 11, 2014, 08:29:09 am
Again, IL Democrats have one of the strongest histories of "coming home'' in the end. Look out.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: MN/MI: Which state is more vulnerable going forward? on: August 11, 2014, 08:27:57 am
I think they're both similar at this point, but I agree with others in that the MN Democratic base seems more stubborn and always seems to come through for the Democrats at the Presidential level.

In a very good GOP year (with a good economy---> crucial for winning those Detroit suburbs), MI could tilt.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Poor vs. Rich elections and Liberal vs. Conservative elections on: August 10, 2014, 05:37:59 pm
We all knew how this poll would turnout, but Election Night '12 was sealed/done at the presidential level, when they asked about whether the President's policies/Romney's proposed ones would favor the rich/middle class/poor.  I think 75% responded that Romney's would favor the rich.  Meanwhile, I think 80-90% said the President's would favor the middle class/poor.  Perception folks.

It was all over right then and there.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / What happened to Al Gore in West Virginia in 2000 (and to the Democrats since?) on: August 09, 2014, 05:13:42 pm
Was there something specific that happened to turn WV against Gore and since then, away from the Democratic Party in presidential elections? Note that Democrats continue to do very well down-ballot in the state.

Unlike it's neighbor VA, that clearly showed a weakening GOP position even in 2000, there seemed to be no signs that in WV.  Clinton won there convincingly by 14 pts and 15 points in '92 and '96, respectively. 

For all the harping about FL in 2000, Gore blew it by losing WV, a state that like HI, NEVER went for Republicans outside of massive landslides.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Gerald Ford's 1976 debate gaffe make the difference? on: August 09, 2014, 05:09:23 pm
Despite the final results being close, Election Night coverage (see ABC on youtube) never really seemed that competitive.  Carter went ahead early on (from the south coming in first), and Ford never really closed the gap until Carter carried HI (NBC's call to provide the win) or MS.  Then, Ford won CA, IL and a few other remaining states to close the final margin. 

Not choosing Rockefeller alienated some of the normal moderate GOP base in the industrial states (i.e. NY, PA and OH) and that was the difference.  Dole was a DISASTER on the ticket and did nothing to help Ford.
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are suburban Republicans really more moderate? on: August 07, 2014, 07:20:49 am
It's more of a stereotype, but being a former moderate republican from NY, it tends to hold true. Moderate Republicans:

1) Tend to have a high degree of education
2) Care about crime, law & order
3) Are often pro-choice.  You don't see that in rural areas that much.
4) Are pro-gay.  You also don't see this very much.
5) Economically, are conservative, and many hold white collar, financial services jobs.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Gerald Ford's 1976 debate gaffe make the difference? on: August 06, 2014, 09:25:24 am
I've asked this question about the '76 election in the past.  I don't think it made the difference, but it did slow Ford's momentum in the fall.  Keep in mind, however, he regained the momentum in October and was actually even to 1-2 points ahead two weeks prior to Election Day.  As usual, the challenger got the final balance, which was enough to get Carter over the top.

I personally believe that while most people vote for President and not VP, the decision to appease the conservative base by putting Dole on the ticket (a big mistake) rather than Rockefeller was the bigger error, as it could have cost Ford the industrial northeastern states and possibly OH, in exchange for the less, EV rich states of the plains, which didn't end up impressive for the GOP ticket anyhow.

Keep in mind that McCarthy also played spoiler in a few states and that hurt Carter far more than Ford.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Millennials Up For Grabs? on: August 06, 2014, 07:29:08 am
The Millennials:

1) Typically connect Bill Clinton as "their" president growing up
2) Blame George Bush and Karl Rove for this nation's problems and experienced that trainwreck of a second term after two solid economic terms under Clinton (his doing or not)
3) Are socially liberal
4) Are far less religious
5) Are growing up in more unstable households than generations past. The "family values" deal may be a thing of the past
6) Viewed Mitt Romney as a smug elitist (overall).  
7) Don't like being told their s..t stinks and that they have to work for everything.
Cool Are entitled, or believe they are.

The Republicans just don't connect with that, but #1/#2 were absolutely backbreaking for the GOP concerning those 22-35 years old.

This is mostly true with the exception of #7. It's not that millennials don't want to work, it's that we cannot find any work. Many millennials my age are more concerned about the bread and butter issues like the economy and education than we are about marriage equality or abortion. Millennials have been told their whole lives to go to college because it'll get us farther ahead with better paying jobs, so naturally millennials are going to vote for a party that sees education as a right and not as a privilege for the favored few. Many millennials after college are finding themselves moving back in with their parents because the jobs they went to college for just aren't there for them. I see and hear about it so often about how they are having to get low-paying jobs or work multiple part-time jobs in retail or restaurants just to make ends meet (I'm one of them with two part-time jobs, one of which is minimum wage while the other pays about $2.00 an hour more. My friend world three jobs, two of which are minimum wage and even moonlights as a drag queen just to have extra cash and he's still almost always broke). For these millennials, the prospect of raising the minimum wage appeals to them since many are working minimum wage jobs. I would argue that it's not solely about the cultural issues, although that certainly does play a factor as most millennials reject the family values nonsense spewed from the right regarding marriage equality. Not sure how my generation feels as a whole on sbortion as that's not a major issue to me when I vote since I'm a) not a woman and b) not straight and c) never going to have children, although I certainly consider myself pro-choice as I believe the government should not be in the business of making reproductive health decisions for women. The culture issues do turn millennials off because we/they grew up/are growing up in a time where more gay people are coming out and it's being more accepted, even in schools where it's cool to have a gay friend.


I'm a Millennial as well.  Many are finding out their first job isn't their dream job, and it's not meant to be.  You have to pay your dues and many from the age of 20-30 just don't want to do it.  Guess what? The supply of labor badly exceeds the demand for our labor. As for going to college....look at how many go to college and waste their time while there.  They get wasted/stoned, but don't learn anything, don't bother networking, and then oops, no employer wants me and I bring no value or skills to the market as a college graduate. That's the reality.  

As for Minimum Wage, most people have no concept (and it's scary) that raising that just results in an inflation adjustment for cost.  

There is work out there, but the prospect of putting in 80+ hour weeks the first few years out of school for an average salary doesn't appeal to many Millennials.  As a CPA/Accountant in practice, I see it all the time.  Many can't handle it and quit after a year in public or private accounting, and then boom, their careers are off to a train-wreck of a start, living at home, with no path to success.  As for the hours in some industries...it is what it is and yes, there are sacrifices that sometimes have to be made, including personal relationships during that "paying your dues" timeframe. It's all a choice.

That is the reality.  The odds are clearly against the Milliennials in this global economy given the supply/demand labor, but I get annoyed when I hear "there's no work available for decent money".  There is, but do the Millennials want to do the work and EARN it is the bigger question.
170  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: HI-Ward Research/Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now: Aiona (R) ahead on: August 05, 2014, 08:11:09 pm
HI's polls never seem accurate.  If you remember, there were a few pretty close polls, two with Bush even leading Kerry there in Oct'14.  Then, Kerry won the state by nine points, which is tighter than normal for HI, but still not that competitive in the grand scheme of things.

Lingle was also leading Cayetano in '98 and lost late.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Contrarian Thread: Bush Won. Fair and Square. on: August 05, 2014, 08:07:48 pm
The DUI was a form of "October Surprise", which has been used time and time again.  That's what happens when you make irresponsible decisions.

As for the polls not closing in the Panhandle prior to the state being called, that was wrong by the networks, but it was usually done that way prior to 2000, even in GOP landslides.  They NEVER waited until 8pm and in TX (where El Paso closes at 9pm EST), they usually called the state at 8pm, until 2004.

Gore had no business losing WV or NH.  Clinton won twice in WV...easily. There was no sign of weakening of the state under Clinton the way VA weakened for the GOP under Bush.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Millennials Up For Grabs? on: August 03, 2014, 07:31:43 pm
The Millennials:

1) Typically connect Bill Clinton as "their" president growing up
2) Blame George Bush and Karl Rove for this nation's problems and experienced that trainwreck of a second term after two solid economic terms under Clinton (his doing or not)
3) Are socially liberal
4) Are far less religious
5) Are growing up in more unstable households than generations past. The "family values" deal may be a thing of the past
6) Viewed Mitt Romney as a smug elitist (overall). 
7) Don't like being told their s..t stinks and that they have to work for everything.
Cool Are entitled, or believe they are.

The Republicans just don't connect with that, but #1/#2 were absolutely backbreaking for the GOP concerning those 22-35 years old.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How has your county voted in previous presidential elections? on: August 03, 2014, 08:44:11 am
Nassau County, NY....progressed with the rest of the GOP.  It voted GOP every election (outside of the '64 landslide) with the GOP candidate, until '92. Since then, completely Democratic, although the '04, '08, and '12 cycles, were 53-46% for the Democratic candidate.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Washington Post on Georgia Turning Purple on: August 02, 2014, 02:11:21 pm
Quote
Last month, former senator John W. Warner (R-Va.) attended a fundraiser for Nunn; his political action committee contributed $500 to her campaign.

Interesting.
And John Warner was the big reason the Republicans didn't knock out Chuck Robb in the '94 landslide cycle, but that's off-topic.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: State of the Purple States on: August 02, 2014, 02:08:02 pm
This cycle will give us another major clue about Colorado, although 2010 pretty much confirmed what we already know...the statewide GOP is a mess beyond a mess and '10 was more favorable for the GOP to do some damage at the top of the ballot.  Why? You had open seats that year.  This year, they're fighting against two incumbents.  Although both are beatable, it's going to be tougher and the GOP keeps proving that they can't get it done at the top of the ballot in CO.
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