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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / 1998 Senate race (IL): Fitzgerald vs. Moseley-Braun...two additional weeks on: April 04, 2014, 12:35:20 pm
Fitzgerald led by 10-15 points in the polls throughout the summer and into October.  Then, the IL democrats came home in a big way towards the end and Moseley-Braun lost by <3 points.  If the race were two weeks longer, does she actually cap what would have been one of the biggest Senate shockers?
152  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: April 01, 2014, 07:39:37 am
Keep this in mind too...while the state keeps changing, Domenici kept winning by colassal margins in NM for years...in the Senate.

I still cannot believe this race could end up being a democratic win.  I don't know much about NM state politics, but if the legislature is controlled by democrats, I wonder if they're playing the old cruel trick of "stalling" everything going there, which usually trickles down to the governor.  Since voters know more about the governor than their legislatures, they usually blame the governor.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Around what year did talk first start about the GOP demographic disaster? on: March 30, 2014, 10:27:26 pm
I feel like I started hearing this around 2004 or so...  But it really got attention around 2008.

I  would agree with this.  It didn't get much attention until 2008, but the signs were certainly there in 2004.
Karl Rove's strategy was to bring conservatives out to the polls by way of the Anti-Gay Marriage campaign and the "moral values" rhetoric.  It proved to be just effective enough.  Don't forget, however, that Bush did decently with Hispanics back in '04 and that may have been enough to be the difference in FL and in his NM win.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Could the GOP's general problem be that the ave. American is getting poorer? on: March 30, 2014, 05:58:12 pm
Yes, we can examine the "trees" as oppose to looking at the "forest", but perhaps this is the biggest reason why the GOP is struggling at the presidential level and specifically, in purple-like states they used to do well in?

You look at the American financial trend since 2000 and it just seems that with wages/salaries stagnating, more jobs going offshore and minorities growing in population that this is the reason for the overall GOP problem. 

From a pure financial standpoint, the GOP appears to be the "top 5%/rich" party.  Well, there are far fewer rich people in America than there are in the "working poor" and with the cost of living rising and wages not keeping up, people are getting pinched.  While at the end of the day, the gov't really can't do very much in a global economy where the country keeps losing steam and a competitive advantage, (which is part of the reason wages fall...supply labor > demand), at least the Democrats come across as "caring" (even if they don't).  Meanwhile, how many Mitt Romney's with the smug Exec. smile have come from the Republicans recently across the board?

As Americans continue to get poorer, one has to believe that the GOP's problems are only going to grow, not shrink because we know, average income to low income earners tend to vote democratic.

Opinions?
155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dan Boren (D-OK) on: March 30, 2014, 02:55:12 pm
I think the Boren name may have run thin in OK. Plus, OK today isn't OK from 10-20 years ago.
156  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: March 30, 2014, 02:47:06 pm
Wilson was in the House though.  She ran a good race in 2012, but that was an uphill climb all the way in a presidential year where democratic turnout was up. In 2010, she could have won that race.

Martinez should be a shoe-in for re-election.  This really surprises me.  The question is, would this be a reflection on her, or again the National GOP which just has a major stench to it, particularly to minorities?
157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: March 30, 2014, 02:29:03 pm
Eh. She's not that popular any longer.  52-40? That's okay, but not wonderful.  She was supposed to be the next big thing in the GOP and considering she's from the minority party in a state where Hispanics are "it", this would be a huge, huge blow to her and the Republican party.  Never did I ever suspect that she would be in any danger this November.  Kudos to the Democrats though if they can pull this off.  

One thing that's become evident though since 2006....you can always count on the democratic party finding some good candidates to steal races they otherwise shouldn't win and you can count on the GOP losing races they have no business losing.  This isn't quite the same story as Martinez isn't an O'Donnell, Akin clone, but what a shocker this would be.
158  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Politicians who could single-handedly make a Senate race competitive on: March 29, 2014, 06:19:10 pm
Think about very popular governors of the minority party in their respective states (i.e. Henry, Bredesen, Rell, Schweitzer, etc, etc).

The thing is, they MUST run for another office again rather quickly after being term-limited or it seems like they lose their luster.  That being said, it's far more difficult to be elected to the Senate (more partisan) than as governor.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there? on: March 29, 2014, 06:12:51 pm
The Democrats seem a lot stronger now in MN than they were say 5-10 years ago.  Democrats have been winning many key statewide races since 2006.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Around what year did talk first start about the GOP demographic disaster? on: March 29, 2014, 06:11:58 pm
It probably started with Buchanan's "Culture Wars" speech at the '92 convention.  That's when the GOP moderates started to abandon the party....from that moment onward.  Then couple that with the growth of the Hispanic population, a more socially liberal youth vote and countless GOP candidates who just sound "out of touch" with reality or the average person/family and there you have it.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Walker up 7 on: March 29, 2014, 05:31:32 pm
If you've learned anything about WI, always add 2-3 points to the Democrats' final polling numbers. They ALWAYS close well, usually due to Same Day Reg.  In 2004, this is what nipped Bush there.  In 2010, it ALMOST got Feingold back in office and trimmed Walker's victory.
162  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: March 29, 2014, 05:30:08 pm
What in the heck happened to her? Wasn't she one of the top 5 most popular governors just a year back? I figured she was heading to a win reaching at or near 60% and in gubernatorial races, that is very possible for the minority party.

What happened to her? This would be one of the biggest choke jobs/upsets of the entire season if you ask me.
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why the Republican Party can't be "moderate" on: March 23, 2014, 06:48:57 pm
You also have moderates like me who are registered republicans, but don't want to be lumped in with the religious right.
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate election in Kentucky on: March 16, 2014, 03:07:40 pm
At the end of the day, it's likely to be a GOP-tilting year. Also, like the Republicans typically lose close races in IL, WA, OR, etc, etc...expect the GOP to "come home" in the end. 
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Biggest state surprises of the 1992 election on: March 16, 2014, 03:04:06 pm
IMO: Colorado and Montana for Clinton (probably Perot spoiler in these states), Florida and North Carolina for Bush (expected Clinton wins).
Florida wasn't even on the radar for Clinton.  That's why he mentioned that he was annoyed he didn't work it as hard that year.  CO wasn't much of a surprise.  It was one of the states Dukakis actually worked in '88 west of the plains and the economy was weak. 
166  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate election in Kentucky on: March 16, 2014, 02:36:56 pm
Given the "climate" this year, that probably will add 3-5% to Mitch's percentage otherwise.  That could be enough of a difference.  We'll see. I think in the end, he wins with around 54%.
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If you were head of the DCCC, what would you advise for this election? on: March 16, 2014, 02:17:50 pm
It really isn't, but the "economy is better" label may help.  Don't underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.  We've been adding jobs and the stock market has been up for a few years now. Yes, it may all crash soon, but American pockets are heavier today than they were even this time last year. 

I would stay away from Obamacare as much as they can.  Also, keep the pro-middle classrhetoric up.  It got the President re-elected and we know the country thinks the GOP is out of touch with the middle class.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Why was the GOP never able to take out Barbara Boxer in CA? on: March 16, 2014, 02:15:24 pm
Yes, the CA democratic party has a death grip on the statewide politics. We know that, but this lady just keeps finding ways to walk between the raindrops.  In '98, Matt Fong was tied with here until the final two weeks and then proceeded to lose by 10 points.  In 2010, it was practically the same story. 

True, it's not like the GOP put up terrific opponents, particularly a moderate who could neutralize her "too conservative for CA" nonsense rhetoric, but it really amazes me.  While I've voted for more democrats lately at most levels than Republicans, I wouldn't vote for her.  She pulls the constant "proud liberal" thing every freakin' time she's up for re-election and it works. 

Even in '92 when she was first elected, there were rumors about her passing bad checks (or something in that nature) and she still won. 

Maybe she retires before 2016, but for a lady who gets up there in the Senate and often doesn't sound very intelligent from her rhetoric, it amazes me how she can constantly just use her knowledge of the CA electorate to her advantage and not pay for it, which a lot of other politicians (liberal and conservative in other solid blue/red states, respectively) can't get away with it.
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Rasmussen: Hick with more or less comfortable leads on: March 16, 2014, 02:10:49 pm
53-45% Hickenlooper at the end. It won't be that competitive.
170  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Tribune/WGN (R): Rauner up 13 on: March 16, 2014, 02:10:05 pm
It's simple-minded, but if the GOP couldn't win the statehouse in 2010, I doubt they do it this time around. Yes, the Republicans do win down-ballot races in the state unless some blue states in which they can't sniff a result within 10 points, but 2010 was a disturbing loss.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Biggest state surprises of the 1992 election on: March 15, 2014, 01:24:53 pm
The GOP knew they were done right from the opening calls.  NH was a shocker.  VT wasn't given that the GOP establishment there had been weakening for a decade or so.  GA was a shocker, although the final results proved very tight. 

MT was a surprise.  FL wasn't supposed to be as close as it was and Clinton (per his book) was annoyed he didn't work FL as hard in '92 as he did in '96.  Also, NC was a near Clinton win.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: New York City election history (1960-2012) on: March 15, 2014, 01:22:37 pm
NY also has the "best of the best" and the "worst of the worst".  The worst far outnumber the best.  There are a s..tload of poor people and low income people living in the boroughs and oh yeah, the "white" percentage is probably around 30%.  Do the math.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Voters during 1992& 2012 re-election campaigns. Your input? on: March 11, 2014, 08:13:34 am
It's an interesting question.  I tend to believe the following:

1) There is still "some" power to incumbency.  If the challenger doesn't inspire, the incumbent often gets the "hold the nose" vote.

2) Romney gained approximately 2% in most states and in several counties, particularly the collar counties surrounding big cities.  That was to be expected.

3) IN actually went back to the margin I think most of us think the GOP should win it by. It was one of the GOP's biggest gains in 2012.  NC went back to the GOP column by Romney's national average movement (2% from 2008).  FL's everchanging demographics likely kept it in the Obama column, particularly the Puerto Rican vote, Senior vote and youth vote.  The "Corridor" isn't as split as it once was. It now leans democratic and that made the difference in 2008.  That being said, the democrats have weakened a bit in Palm Beach the last few years.

4) What surprises me is how many people I spoke to (me included) that favored Mac in '08 but supported Obama in '12.  You didn't see much of that in '92, particularly with Perot. 

5) Similar to '92, Romney just seemed "out of touch" with the average American and to the middle class, it was a turnoff.  The same thing happened with George Bush, who couldn't seem to grasp the struggles that many average men/women faced in the early 90s.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / I really wonder if Mondale actually carried Minnesota on: March 08, 2014, 01:57:45 pm
Given that it was his single state of the '84 election and given how tight it was (4K votes), I really wonder.  There was a youtube up with some brief NBC coverage.  When Brokaw announced that they were projecting MN for the Democrat, you could see his smile of Glee and there were claps and cheers audible in the background.

If I'm not mistaken, ABC actually called the state soon after 9pm when the polls closed, but for CBS and NBC, it was the final state called that night.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-PPP: Gov. Brownback (R) down by 2 on: March 04, 2014, 09:36:27 am
Simply watch the KS moderates.  That usually decides it and the GOP faction often does the republican party in there.
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