Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 29, 2015, 08:32:44 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 55
151  General Politics / Economics / Re: Did Reagan and Co. "force" the deep 1981-1982 recession? on: October 07, 2014, 10:32:01 am
Interesting, but I guess it was the whole "Reagan Principle" of hiring people smarter than yourself to run key areas. 
152  General Politics / Economics / Is the US Economy starting to thin again? on: October 07, 2014, 10:30:25 am
Some obvious indicators lead me to think we're at the beginning of a downturn:

1) Overall peaking of the stock market in spring/early summer and lately, some significant drops
2) Home prices and activities declining for the first time in a while the past few months
3) Many articles indicating that peak-hiring may have already occurred

Opinions?
153  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: SHOCK POLL: GOV. MARTINEZ IN TROUBLE?? on: October 06, 2014, 10:45:14 am
Martinez seems to have cooled off a bit in the last year.  I think the race turns out similar to Gary Johnson back in '98, with Martinez prevailing by around 8-9 points.  For a gubernatorial race though (even with the minority party in charge), that's not exactly a convincing win. Look at the likes of Rell, Bredesen, Henry, Douglas and other minority party governors over the past several years who won re-election.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Economy as issue in 2016 - will it be better, worse or same? on: October 05, 2014, 09:53:05 pm
Worse.  Another downturn is starting.  The signs are there, starting in real estate and the markets appeared to have peaked.
155  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: Rasmussen: Quinn leading on: October 01, 2014, 07:05:46 am
In 2010, Quinn didn't lead in a single poll from the summer on.  Then, the large IL "coming home" effect was the difference.  This year, I wouldn't be surprised if he won the race going away at this point by >5 pts.
156  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA/WFLA tracking poll: Crist+6 on: September 30, 2014, 10:34:09 am
Bottom line, it's a deadheat of a race and we know that.  This one probably doesn't get called until the next morning. 

Living in south FL though, many Democrats are very concerned and Charlie Crist (as a Democrat) isn't exactly inspiring Democrats to go to the polls to knockout Rick Scott of all people.

The FL Democratic Party (to reiterate a broken record)...what a mess!
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Are the times of landslide victories over? on: September 29, 2014, 07:19:03 am
There's too much polarization now.  For the timebeing, it looks like 450 EV landslides are likely over.  Even a candidate receiving 55% of the popular vote (quite an accomplishment now) is likely to lose at least 150 EVs or so. 

A very strong economy. limited fear abroads (unlikely in the near-term) and a president with no dirty baggage (in an age where the media is all over any little thing) could still give rise to that possibility, but it seems unlikely.
158  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Rasmussen: Brownback trailing by 4 on: September 27, 2014, 10:52:29 pm
The "coming home" effect is obviously the concern, but at least KS has a history of electing Democrats to the mansion and in addition, the split between the moderate and conservative wings of the KS GOP is often the cause of it; it's similar this year.
159  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM: Rasmussen: Martinez (R) at 50%, up 13 on: September 27, 2014, 10:40:29 pm
Similar to Gary Johnson's re-election back in '98.  I'm guessing 54-45%, which is actually worse than many would have predicted a year back for Martinez.
160  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK: Rasmussen: Sullivan leading on: September 26, 2014, 07:12:20 am
Well, 50-42% is outside the MOE.  This would be a shame if Begich were to lose.
161  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: DE-Univ. of Delaware: Coons+25 on: September 26, 2014, 07:10:36 am
Is Coons all that popular, or is the DE GOP just dead? At this point, I don't even know if DE has a Republican party.

Coons vs. Castle now would probably be a 15 pt Coons win when back in '10, it would have been a 9-10 pt win for Castle.
162  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ Sen 2016: How will McCain fare if he runs for sixth term? on: September 26, 2014, 07:09:35 am
I could see him losing the primary, or surviving a tough primary and then winning the general by 10 pts or more.

See Arlen Spector as a Republican in PA in '04.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Which VP pick moved the needle more in their home state? on: September 23, 2014, 06:55:02 am
It's not often who you pick, but rather who you don't pick.  Ford's choice of Dole in '76 could have decided the election.  Rockefeller would have helped immensely in the industrial states, not to mention Ford's wins in the midwest and plains were still relatively weak with Dole. 

WI was voting Democratic again anyhow this time around.  Edwards did little for Kerry, but Kerry's campaign was inept to begin with.  He never put enough pressure on George Bush to begin with.
164  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Fox News: Davis (D) still holds lead on: September 20, 2014, 10:23:07 pm
Still concerns that the "coming home" effect could save Brownback, but the moderate vs. conservatives wings of the GOP in KS has always been an issue there and it was back in '90 and '02, respectively. 

Those respective years, Democrats won the mansion
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 06, 2014, 06:36:06 pm
Let's not forget how they spun the embarrassments of DE, NV and CO in 2010 by it being covered up by a "good year".  Those that understand politics and read between the lines know better.
166  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Gov: Quinn gaining on Rauner? on: September 05, 2014, 10:48:29 am
And again, wait until the last week when all the Cook Democrats come home, even if they're holding their noses.  Watch & learn.
167  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: After primary win, Crist regains lead on: September 02, 2014, 10:39:20 pm
Again, the Democrats got fat and sat on their a.ses while Jeb Bush was governor.  He retooled the entire statewide GOP and since then, on a local/state level, it's been a near one-party state, which is hard to believe. 

Some of you have no idea how bad the FL statewide Democratic Party is and how poorly it's setup, run, etc.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz's Dad says that blacks need to be educated on the minimum wage. on: September 02, 2014, 10:36:58 pm
Well, I think a lot of people need to get educated on minimum wage and how raising it does little to no good. If you want hire wages, then you better have the skillset to demand them in this global market where this country is declining.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: FiveThirtyEight: Migration Isn't Turning Red States Blue on: August 31, 2014, 06:41:16 pm
I don't think you can say that from a national standpoint concerning the state of FL.  The Democrats should be far more competitive than they are in Arizona, but the statewide Democratic Party (as in FL) is not good compared to the statewide GOP.

Most people associate the "Sunbelt" movement to FL, AZ and to some extent, TX.
170  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Well, does the Florida Democratic Party blow another one (through Crist?) on: August 28, 2014, 07:06:46 am
Why exactly is the Florida Democratic Party so incompetent?
Jeb Bush was smart.  He knew the state was changing and he completely re-shaped the statewide GOP, its workforce, etc.  Meanwhile, the statewide Democrats just got old and fat on their behinds.
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Well, does the Florida Democratic Party blow another one (through Crist?) on: August 27, 2014, 11:51:06 am
I think we can agree that the FL Democratic Party is one of the worst statewide parties in the country, particularly with how important of a state FL is politically and nationally.  While Democrats have done well nationally in FL, the statewide Democratic Party has blown several races they shouldn't have lost over the years (particularly since Jeb Bush re-vamped the statewide GOP during his gov. tenure). 

Does the FL Democratic Party prove once again they have no chips on the table and no clue? Honestly, I think the answer already, is yes considering that Crist of all people is their candidate, and coming from Palm Beach County, I know plenty of hardcore Democrats there who hold their nose to him.
172  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA: Gov. Scott (R) up 3 on: August 19, 2014, 02:15:22 pm
The statewide Democratic party in FL is just THAT bad folks.  There's no other way around it.  It's one of the worst run statewide parties in the country and considering how important the ground game is in Florida and how important it's become nationally, it's embarrassing.
173  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 15, 2014, 06:56:41 am
Amazing how when I looked back at all the polls from the 2010 race, Brady didn't trail in a single poll from August on and still lost.  That race was highly polled too.  Brady must have lost the late-deciders (the "come homers") 90/10 to blow that race.

It's amazing how from some of the posts within this discussion, the perception of the total incompetence of the GOP in IL
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 14, 2014, 11:28:45 am
Keep in mind, for those saying the Democratic "coming home" effect is overrated, Moseley-Braun was within a week or so back in '98 from beating Fitzgerald with her furious last minute surge, coming from 15 pts down to losing by three.  Fitzgerald disappeared the last few weeks, which was a huge mistake, but the fact that she almost stole that race shouldn't be forgotten.
175  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Rasmussen: Brownback trailing by 10 on: August 13, 2014, 07:53:46 am
It's way too early to start celebrating and the minority party always has to worry about the "coming home" effect.  The good news is, KS has a history of a nasty split between its moderate GOP wing and the conservatives and Brownback has done a nice job of alienating the moderates, who have a track record of supporting Democrats in past races. 
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 55


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines