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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bobby Jindal blames shootings on cultural decay, lack of faith and family on: October 12, 2015, 10:45:39 am
I don't disagree with his "family" claim. The American family has deteriorated.  Look at the number of children living in "broken" households and where they aren't taught how to be respectable men/women.  Then, add in the number of children growing up at or below the line. 

Lastly, add in the number of children growing up in households where mom/dad quite frankly "can't be bothered being parents".  You hear more and more of this (and see it) everyday. 

This is one of the end results of that.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Illinois Trend by County: 1976-2012 on: October 10, 2015, 09:53:32 am
Look at the last time that IL was competitive at the presidential level - 1988.  George Bush won the state in a back/forth night with Mike Dukakis.  Look at how well Bush did in the suburbs surrounding Cook county. He swamped Dukakis there, and he did very well in the burbs elsewhere across the county.  That gave Bush his victory.  As a suburban voter, one who comes from a family of former moderate republicans that now typically votes democratic at the presidential level, think about the stereotypes that come with the traditional "suburban" voter:

1) Typically well-educated
2) Socially moderate to perhaps left-leaning
3) Middle Class to perhaps upper middle class
4) Big on crime prevention
5) Financial issues matter far more than religious ones
6) Likely (not all of course) more pro choice than pro life
7) Relatively gay friendly

Given what I just said, think about the movement in the parties from the the 80s until now.  That does explain a lot.


As an aside, if I'm not mistaken, one or more of the networks blew the call that night in IL, giving the state to the Democrat and final returns yielded a close, but safe two point margin for Bush.
153  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MD: Hogan with nearly 60% approval rating on: October 06, 2015, 07:48:29 pm
Ehrlich wasn't necessary unpopular, but he was just a bit too far right socially.  To his credit though, he stayed true to his beliefs on some issues which cost him support.  Of course, he lost re-election.

We'll see how Hogan does in a few years, assuming he's healthy and running for a second term.  The GOP's ceiling in MD is very, very low.  I can't see anyone breaking 53% there on the GOP's side.  It will be interesting to see if Hogan could break more into the African American community and garnish more support.  That's part of the reason why the floor for Democrats there is high.
154  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-Sen: Salmon, Schweikert considering on: October 03, 2015, 10:40:14 am
You all don't think that similar to Uncle Barry in 1980 (a very strong GOP tidal wave year), that Mac wouldn't win again out of principle?

155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: North Carolina Trend by County: 1976 - 2012 on: October 03, 2015, 10:18:24 am
The recent trend is a bit more murky for the GOP.  If the northern burbs and cities continue on like northern VA, that will be a problem for them.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's make or break time for Jeb Bush on: September 28, 2015, 07:50:40 am
Not yet, but it's getting there. I think by Thanksgiving, he'll need to make his move in the polls.  That being said, I think the nomination is still his if he wants it. He's got the $$$ and the machine behind him.  Sometimes if you're in the media's eyes too long, you go stale.  Perhaps this is a calculated strategy?
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Is the GOP still haunted by the 1992 Convention? on: September 24, 2015, 11:49:54 am
It's the economy stupid.

Bush lost in 1992 because he was out of touch regarding the economy.
That is true, but many point to that Culture Wars speech as the official time of the Christian Right's hijacking of the GOP and the moment that moderates started voting Democratic, especially in the suburbs, where Republicans have lost serious support since '90.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Comparison of 1976 and 2012 on: September 20, 2015, 06:47:50 pm
Comparing '76 to '12 isn't great in my opinion, because the 1976 map was an anomaly. For one cycle, Carter was able to turn most of the south back to the Democratic side, but of course it didn't last.  See 1980 and the maps going forward.

Carter still had a huge boost in the south in 1980. And you'd have to wait until 1992 for the northeast and west coast to solidify for Democrats.

Arkansas would have went for Carter if it had not become the home for a disproportionate number of Cuban Mariel refugees at Fort Smith. 

Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee were all within 2% for Carter and all under 50% for Reagan, where, in every state, the votes cast for Barry Commoner and John Anderson could have switched the outcome.  Only Virginia, Florida, Texas and Louisiana were over 50% for Reagan.  The reason for these outcomes, IMO, were (A) greater influx of Republican non-Southern Northerners in VA, FL, and TX, and (B) the Energy issue in TX and LA.
And from the last debate, which turned the race from one where the media actually thought Carter still had a chance into a 44 state electoral landslide.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Is the GOP still haunted by the 1992 Convention? on: September 20, 2015, 06:45:24 pm
That convention was the end of any moderate rule by the GOP, although with what has happened socially in this nation the past few years, there is a chance for moderates to gain some traction again.
160  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OR-GOV: Governor Kate Brown (D) running in 2016 on: September 20, 2015, 06:42:40 pm
OR has no republican party. It's beyond dead.  Unless it's northern neighbor, who has nominated some decent candidates in statewide races, OR has absolutely nobody in the GOP pipeline. 
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could the Republicans have won in 2008? on: September 20, 2015, 06:41:39 pm
sg0508,

The economic meltdown in September 2008 solidified John McCain losing a Republican hold of the presidency…totally letting even non-analysts know, at that time, the result would be a Democratic pickup to elect Barack Obama the 44th president of the United States.

Wikipedia.org probably has the polls' numbers, nationwide and statewide, for the McCain-vs.-Obama matchup on a timeline.

My memory was that McCain's questionable leads were in part of August and right after the end of the 2008 Republican convention. (The Democratic convention was in the final week of August 2008. The Republican convention was one week later.) The Republican convention's end was between one and two weeks before the meltdown.

By the way: Some of the polls were b.s. This was especially the case with Rasmussen Reports, which didn't show an Obama lead in Ohio until the arrival of October. All other polls were showing the opposite. Rasmussen, clearly untrustworthy, was doing it deliberately. (It actually had the nerve to publish a poll showing McCain with a 10-point lead given George W. Bush's 2004 margin in Ohio was 2.11 to his 2.46 nationwide.)

The reasons why the 2008 incumbent White House party [the Republican Party] couldn't survive their efforts to hold the White House came in the form of George W. Bush. His low-approval numbers were the worst for an incumbent, in a non-incumbent presidential election year, since Harry Truman back in 1952. And that year, just like 2008, resulted in party-flipping of the presidency.
I still believe Mac had a shot after the RNC when polls were still tight.  People still respected him.  Then, the economic apocalypse just killed him.  Add to that a charismatic challenger, and the rest was foretold.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could the Republicans have won in 2008? on: September 19, 2015, 09:05:14 pm
Again, until the Lehman collapse, the race was neck and neck.  That event started the unraveling for Mac.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Comparison of 1976 and 2012 on: September 19, 2015, 09:03:38 pm
Comparing '76 to '12 isn't great in my opinion, because the 1976 map was an anomaly. For one cycle, Carter was able to turn most of the south back to the Democratic side, but of course it didn't last.  See 1980 and the maps going forward.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Bill Clinton under perform so much compared to his polling in 1996? on: September 19, 2015, 09:01:06 pm
Voter apathy and I believe I read somewhere that there was some evidence that the polling in '96 just was not very good in general for whatever reason.

Lastly, the challenger usually gets a bit of a bounce at the end, no matter how far over the race is.  Dole got that bounce.  Even Goldwater got a bit of a bounce against LBJ.
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-PPP (2018): Nelson leads Scott by 4 on: September 18, 2015, 11:14:02 am
Connie Mack IV was up on Nelson during the summer of '14 and then completed faded.  Nobody really understands what happened.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Jeb Bush the most pathetic GOP "establishment" candidate ever? on: September 18, 2015, 08:52:27 am
I still believe the nomination is there for the taking.  There's too much "time" right now for Trump to stay on top.  He will fizzle.  Jeb Bush has the most important thing on his side...$$$.  Once that kicks in, and as time gets on his side, I think he can do it.  I'm not hoping he does, but I still believe the nomination ends up in his hands.
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VT-GOV: Phil Scott in on: September 18, 2015, 08:43:09 am
The Liet. Governors' chances are often tied to the popularity of the governor, if they are of the same party.  When they differ, then who knows how it really works?

Either way, I like seeing the blue state Republicans win, and red state Democrats.  It usually forces them to work towards the middle, which in my opinion, gets the most done, especially when dealing with a heavily tilted legislature.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Was there any "real" hope for Dukakis in the closing weeks of the '88 campaign? on: September 18, 2015, 08:36:42 am
Looking back at polls, and consistent with other races, there was the "tightening" effect, which usually favors the challenging party/candidate.  I believe the final popular vote poll had Bush up only 51-47% or 52-47% (the results yielded a 7.5 pt. spread). 

Watching old youtubes (CBS/NBC), there were the talks of the 18 state strategy of Dukakis' campaign, and possibly some viability in other states (i.e. Colorado, New Mexico, etc).  The populist rhetoric, some which may argue was desperation, seemed to be taking shape and making a difference. 

Of course on Election Night, it quickly fell apart by the 8:00 hour (EST), as many of the 18 states started falling for Bush. Once OH and Michigan were gone for Dukakis, all was done, well before polls in the west closed.

So, was this late rally simply nonsense, the media trying to make a difference, or was there real hope that Dukakis could actually pull it off?

If I remember correctly (and ironically), Bush 41 had the same MO at the closing in '92, with Tim Russert actually saying he had a shot for the win in the closing days.  Of course, Clinton was in solid command on Election Night from the get go, despite the plurality margin being respectable.

Thoughts?
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DE-AL: Rep. Carney (D) running for Governor on: September 17, 2015, 09:57:10 am
Does DE still have a republican party? Looking at some of the downballot races from '14, it looks like they finally won a few statewide offices, but it's unreal how long the overall drought has been in an "important" race in that state.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did the Democrats nominate Mondale in 1984 on: September 17, 2015, 09:47:51 am
The economy wasn't in solid shape until the second half of '95.  You also had the healthcare reform failure and the gov't shutdown.  Then, on his watch, the Democrats lost control of both Houses of Congress. Most figured how in the hell is going to get anything done now?

But, Clinton moderated, the economy improved and he was very effective at letting others take the fall for some of his own scandals (i.e. Slick Willy).


Actually the economy was growing really fast and jobs increased dramatically from 1993Q1-1995Q2. Slowing down in 1995Q3-Q4. And going back up at a faster but moderate past.





I think people didn't felt the economy was improving by the 1994 midterms even though it was. But other reasons caused the loss. From the failed healthcare reform, passing gun control, and dont ask don't tell being implemented which was considered quite liberal back then. Which caused enthusiasm amongst conservatives both social and economic to use 1994 was a payback. Helped by the perot voters.
When Americans "feel it".  That was the argument Clinton made at the '12 convention.  The numbers were improving, but Americans weren't feeling it yet (the lag factor).  George Bush tried to make the same point in 1992.  The recession was over by late '91 and GDP was positive again, but Americans weren't "feeling it" yet.  It took until late '95 I believe when most Americans (poll-wise) said the economy was getting better.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Illinois Trend by County: 1976-2012 on: September 16, 2015, 08:12:14 pm
And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did the Democrats nominate Mondale in 1984 on: September 16, 2015, 08:09:21 pm
The economy wasn't in solid shape until the second half of '95.  You also had the healthcare reform failure and the gov't shutdown.  Then, on his watch, the Democrats lost control of both Houses of Congress. Most figured how in the hell is going to get anything done now?

But, Clinton moderated, the economy improved and he was very effective at letting others take the fall for some of his own scandals (i.e. Slick Willy).
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did the Democrats nominate Mondale in 1984 on: September 16, 2015, 10:30:40 am
The "beef" was actually the right answer.  Would Gary Hart have done any better? Maybe a little, but probably not so much in the end.  It is hard to believe that some thought Mondale had a chance after the first debate...then after the Reagan "age" answer in debate #2, it turned into a near 50 state sweep.

Democrats weren't winning in '84 given the economic improvement from early '83 right through '84. 
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happend to Jeb? on: September 14, 2015, 07:36:08 am
Jeb is far from dead.  Timing is crucial and it's still very early. He'll get it going.  You'll see.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Wisconsin Trend by County: 1976-2012 on: September 13, 2015, 09:13:01 pm
I don't know, but it still seems like actual statewide results in elections are further Democratic than polled.  In '04, Bush was in total control of WI until Oct.  Then, Kerry closed the gap and took the state.

In the '10 GOP landslide, yes the GOP won, but Walker's margin wasn't that impressive and Feingold almost stole that race. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but it just seems like Democrats do better there on Election Day than what polls actually show.
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