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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What were the battleground states in 1996? on: April 21, 2014, 10:55:51 pm
Clinton's win in AZ was predictable for a few reasons:

1) The growing Hispanic population
2) Dole had very negative favor-ability ratings there.  He gotten beaten up pretty badly in the primary by his opponents
3) Healthcare
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What were the battleground states in 1996? on: April 21, 2014, 10:53:58 pm
TN was called right at the 8pm closing time.  Clinton's two biggest targets (as stated) were FL and AZ.  Read his book My Life.  He was pissed about not winning VA and NC, especially NC, which he thought slipped away in the last week or two with Dole's final push.  Ironically, he never mentioned much about losing GA or CO.

Look at the actual 1996 results and the "Dole Wins" scenario.  There were your additional states he had to have to win the EC.  Other battlegrounds were previously mentioned in this thread.
153  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 21, 2014, 09:12:01 am
Having lived in FL for several years (during college), I will tell you that the statewide GOP is far stronger than the statewide democratic party and Republicans have won some races there that perhaps, they shouldn't have.  This one will be another benchmark test for the Democrats who haven't held the statehouse there since early '99.  Meanwhile, the demographical problem the GOP has on a national level hasn't really carried itself out at the state level in FL.
154  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: DE Gov. 2016: Beau Biden running on: April 19, 2014, 12:35:59 am
I don't think Mike Castle would win anymore, even if he ran.  There's too much damage from that humiliating debacle of the '10 primary defeat and he's old.  That's what finally did Bill Roth in too.

The DE GOP is deader than dead.  They have NOBODY.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How has your family voted? on: April 17, 2014, 11:05:48 am
Traditionally, we were a Republican family, but we were from the old Rockefeller Republican breeding.  Starting in the 90s, our family has veered more towards the Democratic Party.
156  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: DE Gov. 2016: Beau Biden running on: April 17, 2014, 11:03:01 am
Geez. Will the Republicans ever win another statewide race in DE again? Amazing.  Of course, when the state party has a debacle like they did in the 2010 Senate race, who knows?
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Could the GOP's general problem be that the ave. American is getting poorer? on: April 10, 2014, 07:22:59 am
You also have a ton of children in this country now being born into broken families at best who are very, very poor.  You have to ask yourself what the Republican party really offers them.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Electoral Strategy for GOP on: April 10, 2014, 07:20:39 am
Socially, the GOP has backed itself completely into a corner where if they try to moderate, they won't get the far right to show up to the polls.  The party is in bad, bad shape on a national level.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / 1998 Senate race (IL): Fitzgerald vs. Moseley-Braun...two additional weeks on: April 04, 2014, 12:35:20 pm
Fitzgerald led by 10-15 points in the polls throughout the summer and into October.  Then, the IL democrats came home in a big way towards the end and Moseley-Braun lost by <3 points.  If the race were two weeks longer, does she actually cap what would have been one of the biggest Senate shockers?
160  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: April 01, 2014, 07:39:37 am
Keep this in mind too...while the state keeps changing, Domenici kept winning by colassal margins in NM for years...in the Senate.

I still cannot believe this race could end up being a democratic win.  I don't know much about NM state politics, but if the legislature is controlled by democrats, I wonder if they're playing the old cruel trick of "stalling" everything going there, which usually trickles down to the governor.  Since voters know more about the governor than their legislatures, they usually blame the governor.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Around what year did talk first start about the GOP demographic disaster? on: March 30, 2014, 10:27:26 pm
I feel like I started hearing this around 2004 or so...  But it really got attention around 2008.

I  would agree with this.  It didn't get much attention until 2008, but the signs were certainly there in 2004.
Karl Rove's strategy was to bring conservatives out to the polls by way of the Anti-Gay Marriage campaign and the "moral values" rhetoric.  It proved to be just effective enough.  Don't forget, however, that Bush did decently with Hispanics back in '04 and that may have been enough to be the difference in FL and in his NM win.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Could the GOP's general problem be that the ave. American is getting poorer? on: March 30, 2014, 05:58:12 pm
Yes, we can examine the "trees" as oppose to looking at the "forest", but perhaps this is the biggest reason why the GOP is struggling at the presidential level and specifically, in purple-like states they used to do well in?

You look at the American financial trend since 2000 and it just seems that with wages/salaries stagnating, more jobs going offshore and minorities growing in population that this is the reason for the overall GOP problem. 

From a pure financial standpoint, the GOP appears to be the "top 5%/rich" party.  Well, there are far fewer rich people in America than there are in the "working poor" and with the cost of living rising and wages not keeping up, people are getting pinched.  While at the end of the day, the gov't really can't do very much in a global economy where the country keeps losing steam and a competitive advantage, (which is part of the reason wages fall...supply labor > demand), at least the Democrats come across as "caring" (even if they don't).  Meanwhile, how many Mitt Romney's with the smug Exec. smile have come from the Republicans recently across the board?

As Americans continue to get poorer, one has to believe that the GOP's problems are only going to grow, not shrink because we know, average income to low income earners tend to vote democratic.

Opinions?
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dan Boren (D-OK) on: March 30, 2014, 02:55:12 pm
I think the Boren name may have run thin in OK. Plus, OK today isn't OK from 10-20 years ago.
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: March 30, 2014, 02:47:06 pm
Wilson was in the House though.  She ran a good race in 2012, but that was an uphill climb all the way in a presidential year where democratic turnout was up. In 2010, she could have won that race.

Martinez should be a shoe-in for re-election.  This really surprises me.  The question is, would this be a reflection on her, or again the National GOP which just has a major stench to it, particularly to minorities?
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: March 30, 2014, 02:29:03 pm
Eh. She's not that popular any longer.  52-40? That's okay, but not wonderful.  She was supposed to be the next big thing in the GOP and considering she's from the minority party in a state where Hispanics are "it", this would be a huge, huge blow to her and the Republican party.  Never did I ever suspect that she would be in any danger this November.  Kudos to the Democrats though if they can pull this off.  

One thing that's become evident though since 2006....you can always count on the democratic party finding some good candidates to steal races they otherwise shouldn't win and you can count on the GOP losing races they have no business losing.  This isn't quite the same story as Martinez isn't an O'Donnell, Akin clone, but what a shocker this would be.
166  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Politicians who could single-handedly make a Senate race competitive on: March 29, 2014, 06:19:10 pm
Think about very popular governors of the minority party in their respective states (i.e. Henry, Bredesen, Rell, Schweitzer, etc, etc).

The thing is, they MUST run for another office again rather quickly after being term-limited or it seems like they lose their luster.  That being said, it's far more difficult to be elected to the Senate (more partisan) than as governor.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there? on: March 29, 2014, 06:12:51 pm
The Democrats seem a lot stronger now in MN than they were say 5-10 years ago.  Democrats have been winning many key statewide races since 2006.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Around what year did talk first start about the GOP demographic disaster? on: March 29, 2014, 06:11:58 pm
It probably started with Buchanan's "Culture Wars" speech at the '92 convention.  That's when the GOP moderates started to abandon the party....from that moment onward.  Then couple that with the growth of the Hispanic population, a more socially liberal youth vote and countless GOP candidates who just sound "out of touch" with reality or the average person/family and there you have it.
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Walker up 7 on: March 29, 2014, 05:31:32 pm
If you've learned anything about WI, always add 2-3 points to the Democrats' final polling numbers. They ALWAYS close well, usually due to Same Day Reg.  In 2004, this is what nipped Bush there.  In 2010, it ALMOST got Feingold back in office and trimmed Walker's victory.
170  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King on: March 29, 2014, 05:30:08 pm
What in the heck happened to her? Wasn't she one of the top 5 most popular governors just a year back? I figured she was heading to a win reaching at or near 60% and in gubernatorial races, that is very possible for the minority party.

What happened to her? This would be one of the biggest choke jobs/upsets of the entire season if you ask me.
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why the Republican Party can't be "moderate" on: March 23, 2014, 06:48:57 pm
You also have moderates like me who are registered republicans, but don't want to be lumped in with the religious right.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate election in Kentucky on: March 16, 2014, 03:07:40 pm
At the end of the day, it's likely to be a GOP-tilting year. Also, like the Republicans typically lose close races in IL, WA, OR, etc, etc...expect the GOP to "come home" in the end. 
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Biggest state surprises of the 1992 election on: March 16, 2014, 03:04:06 pm
IMO: Colorado and Montana for Clinton (probably Perot spoiler in these states), Florida and North Carolina for Bush (expected Clinton wins).
Florida wasn't even on the radar for Clinton.  That's why he mentioned that he was annoyed he didn't work it as hard that year.  CO wasn't much of a surprise.  It was one of the states Dukakis actually worked in '88 west of the plains and the economy was weak. 
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate election in Kentucky on: March 16, 2014, 02:36:56 pm
Given the "climate" this year, that probably will add 3-5% to Mitch's percentage otherwise.  That could be enough of a difference.  We'll see. I think in the end, he wins with around 54%.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If you were head of the DCCC, what would you advise for this election? on: March 16, 2014, 02:17:50 pm
It really isn't, but the "economy is better" label may help.  Don't underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.  We've been adding jobs and the stock market has been up for a few years now. Yes, it may all crash soon, but American pockets are heavier today than they were even this time last year. 

I would stay away from Obamacare as much as they can.  Also, keep the pro-middle classrhetoric up.  It got the President re-elected and we know the country thinks the GOP is out of touch with the middle class.
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