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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Massachusetts trends on: March 01, 2015, 10:53:47 am
The last two GOP candidates are the types (so they seemed) that could possibly get some cross-over voting.  I agree that MA is not the most Democratic state in the country any longer.  Unlike in many blue states, the GOP in MA has a pulse.
152  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How will Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Charlie Baker (R-MA) do as governors? on: February 16, 2015, 10:34:06 pm
I think the big issue facing any statewide Republican in MD is that a very solid percentage (probably 45% of those that turnout) will NEVER support a GOP candidate no matter who is in office, what they've done, etc....the "R" next to their name is the only thing that matters.  The ceiling for statewide Republicans in MD (not that there have been many lately) is very low.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a Ford 76, Anderson 80, Reagan 84, and Dukakis 88 voter on: February 15, 2015, 10:51:38 pm
Northeastern republican and small business owner who was realizing that Big Business under Reagan was bad news for many smaller businesses. Corporate America as we know it today started it's drive in the Reagan years. 

The irony is, there were plenty of Reagan voters in '80 that voted for Mondale in '84.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Kansas-1988 on: February 15, 2015, 10:49:52 pm
Farm crisis of the 80s.  If you look at the changes from '84 to '88, Bush lost his biggest chunks in the Plains. 
155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do Elections Generally Close Hard for the Winning Party? on: February 09, 2015, 11:37:16 pm
It's tough to say.  Early voting in many states is definitely throwing off a lot of polls.  That we know.  In the past, we tended to see a "tightening" of the polls as Election Day approached and of course, you always have a "coming home" effect of the majority party in the state.

It's a good question though
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should anyone GOPer in the current "group" scare the Democrats? on: January 30, 2015, 12:13:18 pm
And keep in mind, before we all say, "watch the economy and that's usually how the race ends up", that seemed to go somewhat out the door in '12 where the economy was still on pretty shaky ground and yet the incumbents won by a relatively safe margin.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Should anyone GOPer in the current "group" scare the Democrats? on: January 30, 2015, 11:35:33 am
I understand that at this point in the game, the odds of getting an outsider and a young, fresh face in there isn't likely.  Those usually enter the race a year before and thus, you have the "establishment" being talked about at this point, similar to Hillary Clinton on the Democrats' side.

That being said, I just look at some of these candidates from the Republican side (as of now) and just roll my eyes, and I'm the type of voter that for the right candidate, will still vote Republican.  All I can think to myself is, how in the heck will any of these people, many who either have a bad last name (i.e. Bush) or who already have bad raps (i.e. Palin, possibly Cruz) going to appeal to:

1) Moderate voters
2) Young voters
3) Minorities

We know, this was the key to Romney's defeat in '12.  In addition, already the line of "wasn't conservative enough", the broken-record used by the GOP after every failed election is being thrown around and it's very old.
158  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 MA Senate race on: January 17, 2015, 10:57:16 pm
Bill Weld found out the hard way back in '96, just two years after being re-elected to a second term as governor by a landslide.  Assuming Baker is popular, he should take note.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did your grandparents vote? on: January 16, 2015, 09:49:29 am
Typical northeastern republicans...voted GOP until the mid 80s and then slowly drifted to the Democratic Party.  My granddad was actually a staunch republican who never voted Democratically.  Ironically, the first time he voted for a Democrat at the top of the ticket was the 49 state landslide in '84.  He was a small business owner and thought Corporate America was bad news (who would have known?).  Grandma followed.
160  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 MA Senate race on: January 08, 2015, 10:25:02 am
In a presidential, there will be almost no chance to win that seat.  The only way a republican has a chance to break even 40% is if she's not running and the Democrats' choice isn't exactly a good one.  Other than that, forget it.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen. 2016 Grapevine on: January 02, 2015, 04:30:53 pm
One of the things Mark Kirk must have going for him is "recognition" from IL voters.  Do enough voters know who he is and what he stands for? If so, he's got a far better shot to pull 5-7% of the Democrats from the top of the ticket to go his way and possibly win a full term. If not though, he's going to have a far tougher time.  It's going to be tough either way given the turnout in a presidential year in blue IL.
162  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Walker's reelection in badgerland wasn't all that impressive on: December 31, 2014, 10:44:48 am
Someone as polarizing as him wasn't going to win "big" in a toss-up state that at the presidential level, leans bluish.  It wasn't going to happen. His victory margin doesn't surprise me in the least and was actually larger than I expected.
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Daily Kos Elections: Possible Heitkamp run for ND-GOV on: December 31, 2014, 10:44:00 am
Her victory in 2012 was somewhat of a surprise as most expected Berg to pickup that seat in a presidential year.  However and again, ND voters still have no issues sending Democrats to Congress on their behalf and she supposedly ran a good campaign.  Even if the presidency stays Democratic in '16, I could see her winning in '18.  So, I'm not so sure that she would want to run for governor.
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / How will Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Charlie Baker (R-MA) do as governors? on: December 29, 2014, 10:21:12 am
Any early thoughts or inclinations? Hogan probably has a tougher go at it given that the GOP ceiling in MD is extremely low (maybe not higher than 52% in any election).  Ehrlich was respected in MD despite his conservative views; of course, some of those views, coupled with the 2006 landslide got him thrown out.  I don't pretend to know much about Charlie Baker, but hopefully he can work well with the Democratic legislature in a state that continues to support Republicans for governor.

Thoughts on these minority governors in very strong blue states?
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: HYPO: Pataki vs. Cuomo 2014 on: December 26, 2014, 09:19:54 am
Pataki's time had come and gone in NY.  His last term was not very successful and suffered from the "around too long" syndrome.  In reality, many believe that 9/11 saved him going into the '02 midterms.  He wouldn't have broken 40% against Cuomo.
166  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HYPO: Franken/Coleman rematch on: December 23, 2014, 08:37:08 am
Norm Coleman wasn't bad and was respectable, but he is a bit too conservative for MN.  That being said, he seemed pretty "clean" compared to many others that were/are in Congress.
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-WeAskAmerica (R): Duckworth leads Sen. Kirk by 1, Quinn trails by 19 on: December 23, 2014, 08:36:16 am
The Democrat at the top of the ticket in '16 will likely get around 55%.  So, Kirk needs to keep his GOP base somehow and then, skim at least 5-7 points from the Democrats/Independents that support the Democratic ticket at the top. 

Also, a third party that takes 2-3 points from the left, similar to '10 could be crucial.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NM: 2014 State Auditor General Election Result on: December 05, 2014, 08:31:03 am
Not very good news for the GOP of NM to strike out below the top of the ticket.  Who fills the void following Martinez?
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2018 Governors- the Democrats silver lining? on: November 24, 2014, 09:26:29 am
Maryland has a very strong Catholic vote (I believe) and thus, the gay marriage pass barely made it in '12.  That being said, the GOP's ceiling is one of the lowest in the country in MD.  The best they can do there is right around 52%, partially due to the African American vote, who will vote 90% Democratic no matter who the GOP nominee is. 

Ehrlich wasn't bad from what I understand, but his tough stance against gay marriage (and again, MD is very split on that issue) didn't help matters.  The '06 wave didn't help
170  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Would Bill Nelson have won FL? on: November 21, 2014, 11:54:58 am
He would have won, but the FL Democratic Party definitely needs to clean the house of the 90 year olds running the place.  They need some fresh, bright, young new faces to head the statewide Democrats.  With the way FL's demographics have changed since the early 90s, it's unreal that the statewide party can be that piss poor and it is.
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mark Udall has now moved to within 2% of Gardner on: November 21, 2014, 07:57:53 am
Democrats always seem to either widen the margin (if they win) post election night or narrow their loss in CO.  Bush was up about 6.5 pts in '04 at the end of election night and won by <5 pts.  Obama broke it open both times post-election night. 

This is interesting to say the least.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 12:05:21 pm
The big year for the GOP was actually back in '98.  They took quite a few that year.  The answer to the OP's question is probably "yes".  However, one thing working in the GOP's favor is that the majority of those races happens during the midterms and not the presidential years.  Thus, turnout is down and we know that helps Republicans.  You think the GOP would have won some of the mansions they did this year with turnout up in a presidential year and where the blue states would have supported the Democratic presidential candidate by large margins (i.e. IL, MD, etc)? I think not.

That also helps to explain why the Republicans continue to fail to win the statehouse in a state like WA despite putting up some decent candidates in recent cycles.
173  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-Sen: McCain likely running on: November 17, 2014, 08:44:02 am
Goldwater was the only incumbent Republican to have problems in the 1980 GOP landslide across the board.  Many knew he was past his time, but he won a final term if nothing else out of principle.  I predict the same for McCain, assuming he gets through a primary.  I think he'll win a final term, but I don't think he breaks 55% this time.  Let's also assume he's in good health.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Arizona versus Georgia on: November 16, 2014, 10:48:00 am
Clinton won it a couple times with Perot's help.  The growing Latino population makes it more likely to be a Democratic pickup.  As the previous poster said, the black-to-white ratio in Georgia isn't changing all that much and the whites are as Republican as they've ever been.  Even Obama's near-landslide in 2008 couldn't move it within 5 points.  Obama did a little better in GA than he did in AZ in 2012, but Romney is a very good GOP candidate for AZ and Obama is a very good Dem candidate for GA. 
Clinton won it once, not twice.  Dole's negative image in '96 in the early AZ primary also hurt him pretty bad, along with the social security issue.  The statewide Democratic Party in AZ isn't up to snuff.  The Democrats have had chances to take AZ and haven't done it since '96.  Worse, they don't really seem to be making the inroads they should with the changing population.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Crist Vs Scott election analysis on: November 13, 2014, 07:56:44 am
As soon as we saw the voter turnout in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, we all knew he had lost down south.  Like I said prior to the election, Democrats were not very fond of Charlie and I'm sure many down south stayed home.
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