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151  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VT-GOV: Phil Scott in on: September 18, 2015, 08:43:09 am
The Liet. Governors' chances are often tied to the popularity of the governor, if they are of the same party.  When they differ, then who knows how it really works?

Either way, I like seeing the blue state Republicans win, and red state Democrats.  It usually forces them to work towards the middle, which in my opinion, gets the most done, especially when dealing with a heavily tilted legislature.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Was there any "real" hope for Dukakis in the closing weeks of the '88 campaign? on: September 18, 2015, 08:36:42 am
Looking back at polls, and consistent with other races, there was the "tightening" effect, which usually favors the challenging party/candidate.  I believe the final popular vote poll had Bush up only 51-47% or 52-47% (the results yielded a 7.5 pt. spread). 

Watching old youtubes (CBS/NBC), there were the talks of the 18 state strategy of Dukakis' campaign, and possibly some viability in other states (i.e. Colorado, New Mexico, etc).  The populist rhetoric, some which may argue was desperation, seemed to be taking shape and making a difference. 

Of course on Election Night, it quickly fell apart by the 8:00 hour (EST), as many of the 18 states started falling for Bush. Once OH and Michigan were gone for Dukakis, all was done, well before polls in the west closed.

So, was this late rally simply nonsense, the media trying to make a difference, or was there real hope that Dukakis could actually pull it off?

If I remember correctly (and ironically), Bush 41 had the same MO at the closing in '92, with Tim Russert actually saying he had a shot for the win in the closing days.  Of course, Clinton was in solid command on Election Night from the get go, despite the plurality margin being respectable.

Thoughts?
153  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DE-AL: Rep. Carney (D) running for Governor on: September 17, 2015, 09:57:10 am
Does DE still have a republican party? Looking at some of the downballot races from '14, it looks like they finally won a few statewide offices, but it's unreal how long the overall drought has been in an "important" race in that state.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did the Democrats nominate Mondale in 1984 on: September 17, 2015, 09:47:51 am
The economy wasn't in solid shape until the second half of '95.  You also had the healthcare reform failure and the gov't shutdown.  Then, on his watch, the Democrats lost control of both Houses of Congress. Most figured how in the hell is going to get anything done now?

But, Clinton moderated, the economy improved and he was very effective at letting others take the fall for some of his own scandals (i.e. Slick Willy).


Actually the economy was growing really fast and jobs increased dramatically from 1993Q1-1995Q2. Slowing down in 1995Q3-Q4. And going back up at a faster but moderate past.





I think people didn't felt the economy was improving by the 1994 midterms even though it was. But other reasons caused the loss. From the failed healthcare reform, passing gun control, and dont ask don't tell being implemented which was considered quite liberal back then. Which caused enthusiasm amongst conservatives both social and economic to use 1994 was a payback. Helped by the perot voters.
When Americans "feel it".  That was the argument Clinton made at the '12 convention.  The numbers were improving, but Americans weren't feeling it yet (the lag factor).  George Bush tried to make the same point in 1992.  The recession was over by late '91 and GDP was positive again, but Americans weren't "feeling it" yet.  It took until late '95 I believe when most Americans (poll-wise) said the economy was getting better.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Illinois Trend by County: 1976-2012 on: September 16, 2015, 08:12:14 pm
And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did the Democrats nominate Mondale in 1984 on: September 16, 2015, 08:09:21 pm
The economy wasn't in solid shape until the second half of '95.  You also had the healthcare reform failure and the gov't shutdown.  Then, on his watch, the Democrats lost control of both Houses of Congress. Most figured how in the hell is going to get anything done now?

But, Clinton moderated, the economy improved and he was very effective at letting others take the fall for some of his own scandals (i.e. Slick Willy).
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did the Democrats nominate Mondale in 1984 on: September 16, 2015, 10:30:40 am
The "beef" was actually the right answer.  Would Gary Hart have done any better? Maybe a little, but probably not so much in the end.  It is hard to believe that some thought Mondale had a chance after the first debate...then after the Reagan "age" answer in debate #2, it turned into a near 50 state sweep.

Democrats weren't winning in '84 given the economic improvement from early '83 right through '84. 
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happend to Jeb? on: September 14, 2015, 07:36:08 am
Jeb is far from dead.  Timing is crucial and it's still very early. He'll get it going.  You'll see.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Wisconsin Trend by County: 1976-2012 on: September 13, 2015, 09:13:01 pm
I don't know, but it still seems like actual statewide results in elections are further Democratic than polled.  In '04, Bush was in total control of WI until Oct.  Then, Kerry closed the gap and took the state.

In the '10 GOP landslide, yes the GOP won, but Walker's margin wasn't that impressive and Feingold almost stole that race. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but it just seems like Democrats do better there on Election Day than what polls actually show.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Romney Lose Florida? on: September 11, 2015, 09:50:53 am
Hispanics, and more precisely Cubans, probably put Obama over the top as they swung heavily Democratic. If they were at 2008 levels Romney probably would've won the state.
If that's true, it would be remarkable, since Cuban Americans have generally been one of the most solidly GOP voting blocs.
That trend has been weakening, especially amongst younger Cuban voters.  If the statewide Democratic Party were stronger here in FL than they currently are, Democrats would be mopping the floor in statewide races.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1980 vs other landslides on: September 07, 2015, 11:52:37 am
It was the first time that the GOP (outside of '64) had a clear establishment with the conservative wing.  Add do that, a changing Democratic Party that was really "nowhere", and it set the stage for the landslide from the Presidential race down to Congress too.

Carter had little place to grow from '76, and the Democrats weren't strong enough yet in the northeast. Thus, the Democratic Party was somewhat "nomadic" at that time and remained that way until the late 80s/early 90s.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Romney Lose Florida? on: August 16, 2015, 10:26:41 pm
There is also a large homosexual population down here in south FL, and they went heavily to the President.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could the Republicans have won in 2008? on: August 16, 2015, 10:16:04 pm
Until the day that Lehman collapsed, that race was neck and neck. It was after Lehman that the economy really spiraled, Obama opened up a lead and never looked back.  I don't think any Republican was going to win in '08 given the outgoing president's disapproval ratings, the economic state in November, etc.  It all was the perfect storm for how the election turned out.  Then, choosing someone like Palin for your running mate didn't help matters.

Weren't McCain's advisers trying to nudge him into picking Romney as his VP? IIRC no one was expecting Sarah Palin to be his VP choice and most were assuming it would be Romney or Pawlenty or even Lieberman.
I'm not sure, but I don't think it would have made any difference in the end.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Romney Lose Florida? on: August 16, 2015, 10:08:33 pm
Chuck Todd mentioned it was the Puerto Rican vote and the Cuban vote that did it for Obama in FL.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could the Republicans have won in 2008? on: August 16, 2015, 10:07:22 pm
Until the day that Lehman collapsed, that race was neck and neck. It was after Lehman that the economy really spiraled, Obama opened up a lead and never looked back.  I don't think any Republican was going to win in '08 given the outgoing president's disapproval ratings, the economic state in November, etc.  It all was the perfect storm for how the election turned out.  Then, choosing someone like Palin for your running mate didn't help matters.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states are fool's gold for the parties? on: August 16, 2015, 09:57:50 pm
Fool's gold states are ones where the party continuously spends a great deal of time on and loses each cycle:

1) Democrats - Missouri, maybe?

Arizona/Georgia - You can't say these yet because no Democrat has really gone after them in a hard way.  Clinton's victory in AZ in '96 was largely due to: aging population, Dole's negative numbers in AZ and medicare

2) Republicans - Pennsylvania, definitely! Colorado? On its way, but the next cycle will be critical to determine this. Virginia? See Colorado.  Florida? Not yet, but with a statewide GOP Party that is far stronger than their counterparts, Romney should not have lost here in '12. Wisconsin? Yes. Minnesota? Yes. Michigan/Oregon? You could argue that now, the Republicans have almost no shot at either any longer.
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Kirk likens Iran "appeasement" to WWII on: August 16, 2015, 09:41:57 pm
I like Kirk, but I think he's dead in the water. It's a presidential year and it looks like the Democratic Party of IL may finally get one right...they're nominating the right person.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: GOP Gubernatorial Election Trend on: August 16, 2015, 09:39:53 pm
The Republicans have put up decent candidates in WA state.  It's OR where the state party is basically dead.  In WA, the problems for the Republicans are:

1) They elect their governors in presidential years
2) The two is essentially split and very polarized; the western half is far bigger (liberal) politically and in population size
3) Republicans who run, have to move to the right in the primary and then try to moderate in the general election. Too late.  How many times from Slade Gorton to Rossi and going forward have the WA state Republicans tried this and lost?

VT is probably the best answer, but you have to win >50% I believe in VT to win. Thus, in a 3-way race, a non-incumbent republican is not likely to get that.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The two basic questions for the Republicans in '16...same as '12 on: August 16, 2015, 09:28:45 pm
1) Can the Party and their nominee shed the top 1% label?

2) Can they attract minority voters?

Unless somehow, the economy tanks into a massive recession, similar to '08 (and it might, but I don't think by Nov'16), the questions for the GOP will be same in my opinion.  After all the hoopla, all the media nonsense, etc...these are the two questions that they must answer and focus on.  Mitt Romney failed miserably at both.  Then again, I do respect that he made certain comments to hint to the average American that the middle class is screwed.  Of course, Americans don't like being told bad things, but that's another story.

Does anyone else agree though with this simplified view? If the GOP can somehow solve these these two points, they have a good shot to win the White House next year. If they can't, they'll lose again.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Is there any plausible argument in favor of the electoral college? on: August 10, 2015, 02:38:02 pm
While it does make Election Night (watching the networks) more interesting, there is no plausible reason in my opinion to have a system in place where virtually 35 states even before the campaign begins are already decided and in the bag for one party or another.  It's ridiculous.
171  General Politics / Economics / Re: Report suggest U.S. children left behind in economic recovery (AP) on: July 29, 2015, 07:27:33 am
Rich people tend to get richer a lot faster than poor people and downward progression is far easier than climbing the latter. 

Over the past 20 years (even before '08), there's been plenty of evidence of more people moving down the financial ladder than up.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1992 if Perot Never Dropped Out on: July 08, 2015, 07:29:39 am
Clinton still wins.  I believe the exit polls (not always right) showed him/Bush nearly splitting the Perot vote had he not been in. Also, some voters wouldn't have voted.  A few states likely would have switched back to Bush, but not enough.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The South in 1980? on: June 28, 2015, 09:25:49 pm
Also keep in mind that the challenger typically gets most of the remaining undecided voters in the final days, which Reagan clearly did.

Could you provide some evidence for this assertion?
Here.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1976
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Supreme Court Issues Ruling On Same Sex Marriage Legalizing Marriage Nat. on: June 27, 2015, 11:46:11 am
Politically, it would be very hard now for any Republican or the courts to overturn this.  The backlash would be career-killing and legacy killing.  When you're fighting an unwinnable battle, the best thing you can do is restructure so that you have a chance to win the war.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / From a macro level, what is the GOP's "platform" now? on: June 27, 2015, 11:42:02 am
With the Supreme Court's decision yesterday, the party has officially lost the battle concerning traditional marriage. It was a battle that clearly, Karl Rove and Co. used as a fear tactic in George Bush's narrow re-election in '04 (and I voted for the GOP ticket that year).  Now, 11 years later, they've lost.  You didn't hear as much about it in '08 given the economic issues we faced (and still face in our future), and Romney stayed away from the issue as best as he could in '12, but lost because of the "top 1% smirk" and lack of appeal to minorities. 

As such, what is the party's platform now, or do they not even have one? It almost seems as if the Democratic Party of the 80s, completely lost as they were back then has become the GOP now.
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