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October 30, 2014, 11:50:36 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / What does the GOP offer to appeal to "Millennial" voters? (born post-1980) on: May 31, 2014, 05:17:40 pm
The Millennial have absolutely killed the Republicans, although many would say the GOP killed itself.  That being said, the GOP has lost states like: CO, VA, NC (possibly), and even partly in FL because they are not appealing to younger voters. 

Millennials:

1) 90% of what they care about concerns social issues, which are far more liberal on a national front
2) 10% is economics, largely because Millennials often don't care about fiscal responsibility and since many feel entitled to be taken care of by the gov't and those that have put in their time
3) Far less religious overall than the national mean

While many seem to think the Millennials could actually the generation under which the economy and country blows up, due to diminishing quality of education, lack of overall work-ethic and lack of overall responsibility, plus entitlement, the Democrats seem to cater far better to this generation.

What does the GOP offer, if anything to the dot.comers and if the answer is "nothing", then what?
152  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OR-PPP: Kitzhaber (D) with a 13-point lead on: May 31, 2014, 03:35:56 pm
And the GOP will swing and miss again in all OR statewide races. Talk about an empty cupboard.  My goodness.
153  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, SUSA: Great Scott in the lead on: May 31, 2014, 03:35:17 pm
A lot of you underestimate how much stronger and more organized the statewide GOP is compared to the statewide Democratic Party in FL. I lived there for five years while going to college.  In addition, Charlie Crist doesn't exactly inspire much confidence, especially in south FL where he should clean up as a democrat.  There are plenty of voters I know in Palm Beach/Broward who have a "shrug the shoulder" opinion of him.  I have a feeling Scott is going to survive this.
154  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DE-Sen: O'Donnell Would "Rather Slam her Hand in a Car Door" Than Run Again on: May 31, 2014, 03:32:12 pm
If I'm not mistaken, Coons is actually pretty popular amongst DE voters.  This time around, he would probably crush an old Mike Castle by 15-20 points.  Even in 2010 (as I stated), I doubt Castle wins that race by more than 8-9 points.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Virginia in Presidential Elections on: May 31, 2014, 03:30:19 pm
It's the youth vote that changed the Old Dominion in a hurry.  The GOP offers NOTHING in terms of what Millenials want or value. Now, we can all say the Millenials will eventually run the country into the ground, and it may be true, but this I will say about that generation (mine)....it's 90% about the social issues (mostly progressive) and only 10% economic.  Most Millenials do not give two damns about fiscal responsibility, one of the reasons this country is screwed, but they do tend to favor gay marriage, weed legalization, and abortion rights, not to mention the "entitlement" belief that society/gov't should clean up their crap if/when they screw up.  The Democratic Party caters to that very well. 

By the way, I'm a Millenial, and as a guy who took his education very seriously and has been working since I'm 14, I'm horrified at this generation.  We don't have a chance.

Northern VA is mostly young people folks that love DC and the DC suburbs.  Few to none of those people are voting Republican.
156  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DE-Sen: O'Donnell Would "Rather Slam her Hand in a Car Door" Than Run Again on: May 29, 2014, 11:43:14 am
She finally gets it.  The DE GOP has nobody.  Castle would have beaten Coons back in 2010 (probably 54-45% or so), but not now if that was the Nov. matchup.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Virginia in Presidential Elections on: May 29, 2014, 11:40:39 am
The question is, is northern VA strong enough on its own to carry the state for the Democrats? It's getting there, but not quite yet in my opinion.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Republicans lose the 2016 election on: May 29, 2014, 11:39:48 am
Nope.  We'll get the old, "not conservative enough' nonsense from Sarah Palin's twin.  Rinse/Recycle/Reuse.  Until the GOP realizes it's out of touch with the change in American demographics, they will continue to lose national races.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: More Educated = More Liberal? on: May 28, 2014, 07:13:07 am
Libertarians.  Socially moderate/liberal and economically, moderate/conservative.

White collars still tend to favor the GOP though for tax reason and since their gross incomes are higher. 
160  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen: Sen. Kirk re-opens campaign Facebook page on: May 26, 2014, 09:30:47 pm
Figure the Democratic presidential nominee is going to win a at a minimum, 55% in IL, including 70% in Cook.  Kirk is going to have to receive massive split ticket support.  Again though, the collar counties will likely determine that.  That's where Republicans still win in IL statewide when they do.  It would also help if a liberal-leaning third party candidate were on the ballot that takes 2-4%.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA: Crist (D) keeps 3-point lead on: May 22, 2014, 09:18:20 am
Having been down in South FL over the last few weeks, I've talked to a few people (known Democratic voters) and let's just say that Crist doesn't exactly inspire much confidence.  They will vote for him, but considering his flip/flopping, etc. there is fear amongst South FL liberals that Scott will win another term.  They don't seem to believe Crist is the right guy to take him out.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Biggest Suprise on: May 16, 2014, 08:08:54 am
Probably North Carolina, as at the time, my final prediction map had John Kerry winning North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Florida.
Why was NC a surprise to you? There wasn't a single poll showing Kerry close to Bush in NC.  The closest I believe was an eight pt margin following the selection of Edwards.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Virginia in Presidential Elections on: May 16, 2014, 07:33:30 am
In an election where Obama lost approximately 2% on average for each state, he did so in the Old Dominion and still won it by almost four points.  That says something.
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: List of United States Senators, who left for the Governor's Mansion on: May 16, 2014, 07:28:55 am
Evan Bayh of IN?
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: List of United States Senators, who left for the Governor's Mansion on: May 16, 2014, 07:27:30 am
George Voinovich, who was a popular governor for two terms in OH.  He defeated Democrat Mary Boyle in '98 for a GOP pickup and easily won re-election in 2004.
166  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If you were head of the DCCC, what would you advise for this election? on: May 11, 2014, 09:55:10 pm
Keep up the economic talks. True, the quality of the jobs isn't great, but job growth continues and the more people that get back to work, the better the Democrats can limit the damage in both Houses. 
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Can Democrats afford to lose Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin? on: May 11, 2014, 09:50:50 pm
They're not going to, so don't worry.  If the GOP couldn't really make any inroads to these states in the last 10 years, they probably won't.  In fact, I think the Democrats' strength in MN, WI and MI has gotten that much stronger in the past few years.  IA is a bit more hazy.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Can Republicans Ever Win Statewide in California Again? on: May 10, 2014, 09:43:08 am
When Orange County is on the brink of going from red to blue, you know the GOP has big, big issues in CA.

Pete Wilson's immigration reform really was the backbreaker though and considering the growth in the Hispanic/Asian population in CA, particularly in Los Angeles, forget about it.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Could the GOP's general problem be that the ave. American is getting poorer? on: May 06, 2014, 07:31:22 pm
The irony is, white collar, smart professionals are typically republicans, but socially more progressive people are typically democrats.

Thus, most people fit somewhere in the libertarian wing.  That being said, as the GOP has been cast (and perhaps it is) as the Top 1% party, there are far more poor people in America who have no prayer to do anything or make it big.  Thus, they support the "Welfare Party" or the Democrats and why not? People usually vote their interests of what is portrayed.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Are there any states actually trending R? on: May 06, 2014, 07:28:56 pm
Minnesota was trending to the GOP for the first decade of the new millenium, but now the democratic party is stronger there. Look at the politicians leading the state at the state and national level.  The GOP has nobody.

MN is yet another state where the GOP has nobody to lead them.
171  General Politics / Economics / Re: US unemployment rate down significantly in April, about 300.000 jobs created on: May 06, 2014, 07:27:07 pm
Again.  Creating "working poor" jobs with "working poor" wages does little to nothing.  We're in the midst of downward, vicious cycle as the American worker becomes less and less employable by the passing minute. It all starts with the failing education system.

That being said, when the supply labor globally > demand for it, wages/salaries fall and when American tax laws/workers demand so much complexity and higher wages, there is little incentive to hire them.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Can Republicans Ever Win Statewide in California Again? on: May 06, 2014, 07:25:07 pm
The answer is yes, but the fact that they got swept down the ballot in 2010, in a very strong GOP year has to be disconcerting. Again.  When your state isn't "white" anymore and your party doesn't realize that, forget about it.  The immigration issue is also a killer.  Pete Wilson was a successful governor, but the immigration law changes starting in '98 (I believe) was the beginning of his end and the GOP's end there.  Later that year, Boxer beat Fong, Davis swamped Lungren and it's been all Democrats ever since.

That being said, the GOP can win statewide races there, but they need to start with races down the ballot, which have been unsuccessful lately.   The big chance they had (outside of Arnold's win obviously) was the '02 gubernatorial race.  Riordan was going to be the GOP's nominee and could have beaten Davis, but Davis was smart and realized this.  He ran ads against Riordan (from L.A.) and Simon became the nominee who lost the race. 
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Are there any states actually trending R? on: May 06, 2014, 11:43:49 am
Yes. The problem is that most of these states are already solidly "red".
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why are Florida whites so Republican? on: May 06, 2014, 07:25:34 am
Because most whites in the northern half of the state are from the Bible Belt, or at least consider themselves from that region.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: May 03, 2014, 06:56:21 pm
I think one of the biggest questions in CO is, "is the GOP brand there so bad with the parade of hard-right, flawed and even offensive candidates they've fielded there in races since Bush's narrow carrying of the state in 2004 that now, all GOP candidates are viewed the same, fairly or unfairly?"If that's the case, the GOP is in even bigger trouble.
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