Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 21, 2014, 01:30:36 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 50
151  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Can Republicans Ever Win Statewide in California Again? on: May 06, 2014, 07:25:07 pm
The answer is yes, but the fact that they got swept down the ballot in 2010, in a very strong GOP year has to be disconcerting. Again.  When your state isn't "white" anymore and your party doesn't realize that, forget about it.  The immigration issue is also a killer.  Pete Wilson was a successful governor, but the immigration law changes starting in '98 (I believe) was the beginning of his end and the GOP's end there.  Later that year, Boxer beat Fong, Davis swamped Lungren and it's been all Democrats ever since.

That being said, the GOP can win statewide races there, but they need to start with races down the ballot, which have been unsuccessful lately.   The big chance they had (outside of Arnold's win obviously) was the '02 gubernatorial race.  Riordan was going to be the GOP's nominee and could have beaten Davis, but Davis was smart and realized this.  He ran ads against Riordan (from L.A.) and Simon became the nominee who lost the race. 
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Are there any states actually trending R? on: May 06, 2014, 11:43:49 am
Yes. The problem is that most of these states are already solidly "red".
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why are Florida whites so Republican? on: May 06, 2014, 07:25:34 am
Because most whites in the northern half of the state are from the Bible Belt, or at least consider themselves from that region.
154  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: May 03, 2014, 06:56:21 pm
I think one of the biggest questions in CO is, "is the GOP brand there so bad with the parade of hard-right, flawed and even offensive candidates they've fielded there in races since Bush's narrow carrying of the state in 2004 that now, all GOP candidates are viewed the same, fairly or unfairly?"If that's the case, the GOP is in even bigger trouble.
155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: May 02, 2014, 07:21:48 am
Udall.  Again, the GOP will look back at CO with two winnable races at the top of the ticket and ask themselves "what happened?".  Well, when your party for the state is too far to the right, that's what happens time and time again. 
156  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: April 30, 2014, 08:28:28 pm
The CO GOP has always been very, very conservative on the social front.  The problem is, the state moved left very quickly in that regard and now, the GOP got caught with it's pants down. It's too far right and the base of the party there has to nominate social conservatives because that's all they have. Of course, they keep losing.
157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Colorado 2014 Megathread on: April 30, 2014, 08:05:31 pm
It will be another major swing and a miss for the GOP come this Nov. in CO.  Again, winnable races and they'll run some brutal candidates and lose everything.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Can states that haven't gone Republican since 1988 be considered "swing states"? on: April 26, 2014, 02:16:07 pm
Yes, depending on how the demographic shifts within the states link to the current political environment.  WI is still winnable for the GOP, as is NH and PA.  The west coast? Forget about it, although Bush was very close there (due to Nader) in 2000 and was competitive there and in WA State in both of his races.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why is Oklahoma so hostile to third parties? on: April 25, 2014, 07:34:50 am
Maybe it is at the presidential level, but in several gubernatorial races, third party candidates have seriously affected the outcome (see '94 and '02).
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Obama so strongly over-perform his polling in Nevada 08 and Oregon '12? on: April 25, 2014, 07:33:52 am
Hispanic vote that was likely underrepresented in NV.  OR is tough (as is WA) because everyone votes by mail there.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sen. Nelson Says He's 'Tempted' to Run for Florida Governor on: April 25, 2014, 07:29:53 am
Nelson has never been overly popular, not to mention he is one of the most arrogant S.O.Bs in Congress.  He keeps winning because the GOP has nominated three losers to face him. 

Nonsense. There are very few Republicans who could beat him in a neutral environment. I'd bet that the only Republican who could have won last year would have been Jeb Bush himself, and that would have been a real race. The Florida GOP don't nominate duds very often (Katherine Harris aside). He keeps winning by filling the perfect niche of being liberal enough to win primaries but not too liberal to lose the goodwill he's built up with business owners, moderate republicans and former southern Democrats that carries him over the finish line.

I'd support him over Scott in an instant, and I'd bet every dollar I have that he'd beat Crist in the primary. Florida Democrats wouldn't be supporting him if they had a legitimate candidate who could win; Nelson could most definitely win. I've always thought Scott's chances were better than polls showed because Crist's support is so ephemeral; most of his supporters (with notable exceptions) doesn't really LIKE him, they either tolerate him because they want to win or out of expectation of future rewards if he wins. His lead has already shrunk and will (I believe) continue to shrink as Scott really gets on the airwaves and reminds people of who they're voting for. I don't think Nelson has done anything that would stick as much, even with a vote for Obamacare. I hope he decides to jump in.
In the years of I lived in FL, I don't know how many races (primary/general) Bill McCollum lost but it became comical.  I don't agree in that the FL GOP has put its best up against him.  We'll see what happens with this though.  This race is a litmus test for the statewide democratic party.
162  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Rasmussen: Rauner (R) beats Gov. Quinn (D) by 3 on: April 25, 2014, 07:27:54 am
If the candidates are somewhere around 45-47% in late October (barring a third party candidate that takes 3-5%), Quinn wins.  IL is one of those states where the democrats always come home in the end.
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen: Sen. Kirk re-opens campaign Facebook page on: April 25, 2014, 07:26:10 am
Go ahead and call me crazy, but I think he could win.  Yes, it will be tough, especially if Madigan runs against him, but he's still an incumbent, and if 2016 is a strong GOP year (which I doubt at this point), he could manage to hold on.  After all, he is much more moderate and a better fit for Illinois than most Republicans.
That's fair, but you don't really see the minority party (in a state) hold onto too many Senate seats in presidential years any longer.  It happens of course, but IL is a tough go and Democrats are likely to get 70% in Cook County with much heavier turnout than in '10.  Kirk lost Cook 62-31% I believe which turnout down.  The numbers just don't seem to really add up.  If he had the name recognition and overall state popularity backing him, then maybe.

That being said, he is from the "collar", which is always the crucial swing areas of the state. So, who knows?
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sen. Nelson Says He's 'Tempted' to Run for Florida Governor on: April 24, 2014, 10:14:58 pm
Nelson has never been overly popular, not to mention he is one of the most arrogant S.O.Bs in Congress.  He keeps winning because the GOP has nominated three losers to face him. 
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen: Sen. Kirk re-opens campaign Facebook page on: April 24, 2014, 09:40:58 pm
As we've all discussed, it will be a big uphill battle for him, especially in a presidential year where the Democratic nominee will probably win 55-60% in IL and where many more democrats will show up to the polls. I figured he had name recognition, but I was surprised to read he lacks that.

It's going to be tough.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Exit polls show Clinton would have carried CO in 1996 with no Perot on: April 22, 2014, 09:14:35 pm
CO was too close in '96 to really take exit polls seriously. It would have come down to final count. Who knows?
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NJ Gov 2017: Who's the best NJ Republican to keep the governorship? on: April 22, 2014, 07:59:08 am
Kean wouldn't have much of a chance.  That 2006 Senate campaign he ran was one of the worst in recent memory (a running theme of GOP Senate campaigns).  Yes, gubernatorial races are more bi-partisan, but he left a major stench with that trainwreck in 2006.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: DE Gov. 2016: Beau Biden running on: April 21, 2014, 11:06:52 pm
Talking about the Gov of DE seems a lot like Cook County, IL and the office of board president. Cook is about half the land area of DE, but has five times the population. It's the only county in IL granted home rule status so the county board and president have a lot of authority over taxes and regulation. And like the GOP in DE the GOP has no chance of gaining the Cook presidency.

And yet even small state governors are imputed to be potential presidential material, unlike the heads of much more populated large cities and counties. How big is Chicago, NYC, LA, compared to AR, AK or MT? And yet Clinton, Schweitzer and Palin could all be considered presidential candidates (or at least legitimate Veep picks), unlike the mayors of municipalities with vastly larger (and usuallly much more diverse) populations and budgets.

Guliani was of course an exception, but only after 9/11 "nationalized" his standing beyond being a good executive to foriegn affairs/terrorism issues.
Giuliani's tenure as NYC mayor was very successful.  Yes, the economy was good for better half of the 90s, but he really cleaned some things up.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What were the battleground states in 1996? on: April 21, 2014, 10:55:51 pm
Clinton's win in AZ was predictable for a few reasons:

1) The growing Hispanic population
2) Dole had very negative favor-ability ratings there.  He gotten beaten up pretty badly in the primary by his opponents
3) Healthcare
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What were the battleground states in 1996? on: April 21, 2014, 10:53:58 pm
TN was called right at the 8pm closing time.  Clinton's two biggest targets (as stated) were FL and AZ.  Read his book My Life.  He was pissed about not winning VA and NC, especially NC, which he thought slipped away in the last week or two with Dole's final push.  Ironically, he never mentioned much about losing GA or CO.

Look at the actual 1996 results and the "Dole Wins" scenario.  There were your additional states he had to have to win the EC.  Other battlegrounds were previously mentioned in this thread.
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 21, 2014, 09:12:01 am
Having lived in FL for several years (during college), I will tell you that the statewide GOP is far stronger than the statewide democratic party and Republicans have won some races there that perhaps, they shouldn't have.  This one will be another benchmark test for the Democrats who haven't held the statehouse there since early '99.  Meanwhile, the demographical problem the GOP has on a national level hasn't really carried itself out at the state level in FL.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: DE Gov. 2016: Beau Biden running on: April 19, 2014, 12:35:59 am
I don't think Mike Castle would win anymore, even if he ran.  There's too much damage from that humiliating debacle of the '10 primary defeat and he's old.  That's what finally did Bill Roth in too.

The DE GOP is deader than dead.  They have NOBODY.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How has your family voted? on: April 17, 2014, 11:05:48 am
Traditionally, we were a Republican family, but we were from the old Rockefeller Republican breeding.  Starting in the 90s, our family has veered more towards the Democratic Party.
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: DE Gov. 2016: Beau Biden running on: April 17, 2014, 11:03:01 am
Geez. Will the Republicans ever win another statewide race in DE again? Amazing.  Of course, when the state party has a debacle like they did in the 2010 Senate race, who knows?
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Could the GOP's general problem be that the ave. American is getting poorer? on: April 10, 2014, 07:22:59 am
You also have a ton of children in this country now being born into broken families at best who are very, very poor.  You have to ask yourself what the Republican party really offers them.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 50


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines