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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Had George Bush dumped Dan Quayle back in '92 on: July 28, 2014, 07:28:55 am
Does it make any difference whatsoever? Yes, it would have highly depended on the replacement VP candidate, but everyone knew Quayle was a disaster for the GOP ticket, even back in '88.  Then again, and perhaps confirmed back in '88, people don't vote for VP.  They vote for President. 

Watching former speeches, debates, etc. by Quayle makes one's brain hurt to say the least.  You're just awaiting for the next gaffe to roll out of his mouth.

Opinions?
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: video of 1992 Clinton veep speculation on The McLaughlin Group on: July 27, 2014, 01:42:23 pm
The same could have been said about CA although the polls in CA weren't close in '92.  CA went to the GOP each time from '52 to '88 outside of the '64 landslide win by LBJ.
153  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life on: July 27, 2014, 01:31:09 pm
Keep in mind that since NM is a bluish state, most of the remaining undecided voters will break Democratic in the end.  Martinez will want to be above 50% by the time Election Day rolls around.  This would be a huge, huge upset though and possibly, a major hit to the GOP nationally given the Hispanic population in NM.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The 'Millennial' Generation on: July 25, 2014, 01:29:43 pm
Summary of the Millennials:

1) They are poorer than generations past
2) They aren't as white
3) They are less educated
4) They tend to lack fiscal responsibility and overall care for it.  Many don't have a clue how to manage their finances.  Social platforms are their priority.
5) They feel entitled
6) They don't want to work as hard
7) They are very disloyal at work
Cool They are IT savy
9) There is a growing number who are/have grown up in "broken families".
155  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OK: Rasmussen: Gov. Mary Fallin (R) leads by only 5 on: July 19, 2014, 09:44:53 am
I don't know about her stances, but when you get an 'extreme' type in the statehouse, especially when it's the majority party in control (within the state), sometimes it backfires.  That's often why you see many more successful minority party governors who govern from the middle (i.e. Henry, Bredesen, Rell, Douglas, etc, etc).
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: State of the Purple States on: July 19, 2014, 09:42:45 am
I don't agree with you on FL.  At the presidential level, it's starting to tilt more Democratic. At the state level, it leans GOP due to the disorganization of the statewide Democratic Party. Obama's repeat victory in '12 in FL was huge.

I also don't agree with WI. It was there for the pickings in '00 and '04 for the GOP.  In '04, Bush led there throughout most of the campaign and lost it in the end. It's swung back to the Democrats since then.  Walker himself will not change the state at the presidential level and he's not guaranteed to win another term this year. 

I agree with you concerning CO, AZ, etc.  although the Democrats should be challenging in AZ better than they are.  Again and like in FL, the statewide Democratic Party isn't in strong shape.
157  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Gravis Marketing: Gov. Hickenlooper (D) up 6 on: July 17, 2014, 07:26:27 am
Pretty much around what I expect.  I think both CO races at the top of the ticket end up around 52-44% or so for the Democrats.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: which set of states will be more likely to flip R? on: July 15, 2014, 11:07:23 am
Neither.  There's no reason to think either pair will flip anytime soon. 

That being said, the GOP has put out some good candidates for Senate/Governor in WA State over the past several cycles, but the party nationally is too far right for the state as a whole and thus, they keep losing.

In OR, the GOP cabinet is less than empty, if that's even possible and the same goes with CT and ME.
159  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Marist: Udall (D) up 7 among RVs on: July 15, 2014, 07:32:03 am
I think you'll see a lot of straight ticket voting in CO.  Thus, I expect the Udall/Hickenlooper numbers to end up around the same.

My guess is around 52-44% for both races.
160  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Kansas? on: July 15, 2014, 07:30:19 am
Who will take the governors mansion this November?
What about in 1990?
161  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: How did Vermont go from being the most Republican state to the most Democratic on: July 14, 2014, 07:23:37 pm
Changing social positions and the depletion of moderate republicanism.  Keep in mind, Dukakis was leading Bush in VT for much of the '88 campaign and Reagan ran behind his national average both times during his two electoral landslides.

The last time the "Old VT" showed through for what we knew it to be was '76 when the moderate Ford beat Carter there by 11 pts.
162  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-We Ask America: Rauner (R) up 12 on: July 14, 2014, 07:19:21 pm
Just wait until the last 10% or so "come home" in Cook. 
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 14, 2014, 07:17:54 pm
I think another important question to ask is, "who gets the credit from the voters for Kansas' economic growth the past few years?"

In some states, the governor is taking/getting most of the credit. In other states, the governor is just seen as having it happen on his/her watch, but it wasn't really their doing. 
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 14, 2014, 07:06:56 pm
^That is exactly the kind of context I was missing on her party switch. She sounds like the textbook definition of "The ______ party left me" party switching.

I could not find her birthdate, but if she and Davis are successful she would be positioned well to make a bid to succeed him as Gov.
She's in her mid 60's, maybe 64 or 65. If Davis were successful and happened to win re-election she would be 72 or so in 2022, so not a chance.

This is looking far ahead, but if Davis were to win this year, I don't see him surviving in 2018. He's going to face a tough time in the legislature and if Hillary wins in 2016, 2018 will likely be a favorable year to Republicans. His one saving grace is that Kris Kobach would likely be his opponent.
Many times, the minority party (especially if he/she governs from the middle) tends to be a lot more successful, and while there could be some effect of the national sentiment, gubernatorial races are far less linked to that...unlike Senatorial races (i.e. Linc Chafee in RI in '06 for example).
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 14, 2014, 06:57:37 pm
The key questions to me:

1) What percentage will the third party candidate receive?
2) Which candidate are they likely to take more votes from?

All else being equal, I still believe the "Coming Home" effect will win it for Brownback, and that the anti-Democratic sentiment for this year could buy him another few points, just enough to win.
166  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM: 2 internal polls show Gov. Martinez (R) far ahead of King (D) on: July 11, 2014, 04:38:45 pm
Big question is whether the New Mexico Dems wait for an open seat to pick it up in 2018 ?


You can't necessarily bank on that, especially with the statehouses that allow for many minority party candidates to win.  The GOP isn't dead in NM like they are just to the north (CO).
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Kansas? on: July 11, 2014, 04:37:25 pm
Brownback will have two major advantages:

1) The "coming home" effect.  If Davis is up by 5 pts or less and isn't above 47% (without any major 3rd party candidate on the ballot), Brownback will get most of the remaining vote, which could put him over the top.

2) Overall, the midterms will favor the GOP.  Swing voters may simply vote GOP tickets due to anti-Obama sentiment if for no other reason.  That could add 3-5 pts to Brownback's total, which could be enough.
168  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Scott leading by 2 on: July 10, 2014, 07:39:16 am
Again.  Having lived down there (through college) for much of Charlie Crist's governship, Floridians began to turn on him in the last year or two and then the change of party, etc happened.  Most Democrats there are probably wary of him.  Even my family in Palm Beach County (relatively stable Democratic voters now and formerly moderate GOPers) are shaking their heads that Crist will be the nominee.

As for Bill Nelson, the Democrats need him in the Senate if they're going to hang onto the majority.  What the FL Democratic Party needs to do is blow up the entire office of people running the place and start recruiting some younger, more vibrant, moderate candidates.  Find those super stars in-state.  They have none!  The FL Democratic Party is a total disgrace.
169  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Scott leading by 2 on: July 09, 2014, 12:17:35 pm
He's been running a smart, smooth campaign and defining Charlie Crist (as many Floridians already believe him to be) and Crist/The FL Democratic Party is an absolute trainwreck.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Florida going forward on: July 09, 2014, 07:24:26 am
President Obama's victory in Florida during the 2012 may have been the most significant win of the entire cycle.  Romney didn't receive the 2-3% national "swing" he got in most states from McCain's performance.  The "Corridor" has swung more bluish mid-state when it used to be the pinnacle swing area during presidential races and most statewide races. 

That being said, counties like Palm Beach are weakening a little for the Democrats.  How do you see the state of FL going as we move forward? McCain should have been the ideal Republican for winning it back in '08, but he lost and Romney's loss there should scare the hell out of the GOP.  As FL is likely to have >30 EVs after the next census, if the GOP watches FL go, they are beyond screwed. 

The great thing about studying FL politically, is that it's dividable to several sub-regions within the state, each with a different voting pattern and overall demographic, and the state is very dynamic, changing by the minute. 

One major thing the GOP has over the Democrats is that the statewide GOP is far, far stronger and the cabinet is near-empty for the Democrats in-state.  See this year's gubernational race as another example.  I bet Charlie Crist loses. Rick Scott thus far, has run a very smart campaign, much more organized and the way that Jeb Bush expected his party to run races when he was in charge from '99-'07. 

That being said, at the presidential level, the Democrats have performed far better in FL.  Where does the state go?
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: July 09, 2014, 07:14:54 am
The GOP now gets swamped in the burbs there, usually the demographic for winning/(losing) in a state like CO.  That's the problem and that's where the GOP lost everything nationwide.  Once they lost the burbs, they were finished. 

Also, given that weed is now legal there, good luck on bringing someone in from the right (and the CO GOP is VERY far to the right--->one of it's many problems) and getting elected in a state that is turning bluer by the day.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most Overrated D Senate Candidate on: July 09, 2014, 07:10:23 am
Just because their likelihood of winning aren't good, that doesn't mean they are overrated.  For example, Heather Wilson of NM was a VERY STRONG candidate for Senate in 2012, but she ran in a presidential year and was still very competitive. 

I think you need to better define "overrated" here.  Tom Kean Jr. for example was "overrated" when he ran for the GOP.  He should have been much, much more competitive and Menendez never even sweated during that race.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What margin do you think defines a landslide? on: July 09, 2014, 07:07:25 am
Given the polarization today, a 10 pt margin in the popular vote is probably a landslide.  Even a 10 pt margin though will still likely yield electoral results similar to 2008, which were substantial, but probably not a "landslide". 

How the vote is spread out really dictates the electoral college.  Heck, in 1980, Reagan/Carter (with Anderson around 6-7%) were near neck/neck prior to the last debate when Reagan broke it up....to the tune of a 44 state landslide win.  He won the popular vote by <10 pts.
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: July 08, 2014, 12:46:40 pm
Democratic sweep at the top of the ticket (Senate/Governor).  The GOP has proven they can't win there and until they do, I'm assuming the trend continues.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: July 07, 2014, 08:17:50 am
What puzzles me is why Democrats in Illinois want to keep Quinn. The GOP has no chance of winning the legislature, so its not like Rauner can do much anyways.
Gerrymandering? Also, you don't just want to voluntarily give up the statehouse to the minority party. 
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