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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Clinton pull of his 1992 primary win? on: June 03, 2015, 07:45:00 pm
Clinton had an outsider's appearance and the "New Democrat" label helped tremendously. The other candidates looked like recycled politicians.  Clinton's youth at the time also helped.

It was the NY primary that drove him to victory.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The South in 1980? on: May 29, 2015, 07:53:10 am
Carter really didn't have anywhere to build from 1976.  The west and southwest were a lost cause.  He had to hold the Midwest and the industrial states in the northeast to win again.  Personally, I just think people stayed home, and Carter really seemed to have no base in '80.  Even the jewish vote (a very small percentage of the total electorate) gave Carter a terrible performance.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did your grandparents vote? on: May 29, 2015, 07:51:06 am
Liberal Republicans from the northeast (Long Island, NY).  They voted predominantly republican until the 80s when they started to switch over.  Once Big Business started getting too big (per their perception) under Reagan, they switched to voting Democratic. 
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why does the GOP get fooled each time by the "Fools Gold" known as Pennsylvania? on: May 29, 2015, 07:49:51 am
I have been saying for a while- PA is going for the GOP in 2016, but VA will go blue (regular, not Atlas)

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I don't see how the GOP is going to do well enough in the eastern portion of the state where they absolutely have to do atleast decent.

Toomey coattails.
Only in '04 was there doubt that the Democratic candidate would carry the state.  Every other cycle this century, there was practically no doubt going into Election Night who was winning PA. 
155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Murray holding early leads on: May 27, 2015, 08:10:02 pm
There definitely seems to be a large group of people in western WA state that just will not swing for the GOP....ever! No matter how corrupt or weak the Democratic party candidate may be, that's who they are voting for.  You really have a split of two states in WA, but the coastal half is becoming stronger. 

As others have said, the WA GOP isn't weak. They've put up some good candidates, but there aren't many swing voters to go around and WA's statewide elections are in presidential years. 
156  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Murray holding early leads on: May 26, 2015, 08:36:18 pm
Well, the Republicans could always run Dino Rossi again, haha.

I think the bigger question is, will the Democrats gain a down-ballot sweep next year? The GOP used to consistently win down-ballot races and they've been weakening with each cycle. In '12, they barely won a single race. 

Part of the problem is that the Republicans have to deal with presidential years, which increases Democratic turnout.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Ted Kennedy cause Carter to lose Massachusetts? on: May 22, 2015, 11:05:22 am
It was strictly:

1) Anderson's 15%
2) The nasty Democratic Primary
3) Apathy in the Democratic Party due to the malaise of the late 70s
158  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Inslee leading by double-digits, except against McKenna on: May 21, 2015, 01:35:36 pm
Democratic win again.  Not much to see here.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Why does the GOP get fooled each time by the "Fools Gold" known as Pennsylvania? on: May 21, 2015, 01:04:23 pm
Every cycle since '00, the Republicans make a major push at PA, especially as each campaign draws to a close.  In '12, PA looked like it was solidly in the Democratic column, until some late polls started showing Romney making a small dent.  Then, the Romney camp made a major push there to no avail, losing by >5 points.  In '08, PA really wasn't that close and yet the Republicans tried hard.  Bush made the most serious charge in '04, trying to draw enough conservatives between the east/west borders to offset the margin in Philly and it failed, although it was close (2.5 points). 

It seems (that at least in a presidential year), as long as Democrats receive at least 80% in Philly, the Republicans have little chance.  Sadly, the Republicans have gotten stronger in west PA, and it hasn't mattered.

Why are they fooled each time? I know the state ends up as "competitive" compared to others, but it's not budging.
160  General Politics / Economics / Re: How the financial crises could have been avoided by the federal reserve on: May 19, 2015, 07:35:06 am
Volcker had to force a recession to kill stagflation.  From '81-'82, inflation nose-dived by 50%, but yes, unemployment soared due to the recession. 
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Anyone here old enough to remember the 1984 presidential election? on: May 15, 2015, 11:02:35 am
Mondale, while having the label as an "Old Democrat", made this line over and over like a broken record:

Tax cuts for the wealthy will erode the middle class and lead to disproportionality of wealth and power (paraphrased).

Back in '84, people laughed at him.  Look where we are now folks.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: So how exactly did Bush lose the suburbs in 1992? on: May 08, 2015, 07:37:34 am
1) The economy
2) Raising Taxes
3) The culture war speech
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Reagan 1980/Mondale 1984/Bush 1988/Clinton 1992 voter on: April 25, 2015, 04:46:04 pm
A small business owner who realized that Big Business really kicked off under Reagan and that Corp. America was now way too powerful.
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ron Johnson: Students Graduating Late because "College is Fun" on: April 24, 2015, 09:53:02 am
Well, Republicans have to attract the Gen Y voters in someway and being one of them, there is VERY little the GOP has to offer to us.  True, a lot of our generation simply sucks, but going law/order on us (as a whole) and keeping up the anti-gay rhetoric isn't going to fly. 

So, why not give it a shot?
165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HYPO: Johnson vs Feingold in 2014 on: April 24, 2015, 09:51:28 am
In '14, Johnson likely keeps his seat due to the GOP wave and the lower turnout.  Put them up against each other in two years, with higher turnout and where the Democratic nominee likely carries WI by 5-8 points, and I think Feingold gets his old seat back.
166  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Rauner = Next Gen Pataki? on: April 24, 2015, 09:41:58 am
George Pataki was a successful governor in NY for at least six years.  Keep in mind that many governors elected in '94 were "successful" as the economy boomed until mid-2000.  Pataki may have lost re-election in '02 had it not had been for 9/11, and the Democrats knew politically, it would have been in bad taste to seriously challenge him in '02, which they really didn't. 

IL seems like a very tough state to run. Budget-wise, it's been in bad shape for years, the population keeps shrinking, or growing at a snail's pace (per the EC map movements), and the state house seems to be a lair for corrupt politicians.  It's scary that Jim Edgar was likely the last successful governor of the state. 

Even if Rauner does okay during his first term, it's going to be very tough to hang on for a second term.  In order to fix a lot of which is wrong with that state's finances, unpopular decisions are going to have to be made, for which people will blame him.  That's often why you don't see many people bite the bullet anymore in America, because nobody wants to be blamed for doing some unpopular to help things long-term....Let it be the next guy's problem to fix whatever is going wrong.  It's a bigger reason why politics don't work anymore in the US and why this country to some extent is falling apart.  But, that's another story.

Other than Jim Edgar and the late Judy Topinka, Republicans have had a very hard time in surviving more than one term statewide in IL.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How will census effect EC? on: April 23, 2015, 09:38:16 am
I believe that the only population increases in NY are in Manhattan (naturally) and Brooklyn, maybe a bit in Queens.  Other than that and coming from the suburbs of Long Island, people are running for the hills up there.  They can't get out of that state fast enough.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would California still have a Republican Senator today if... on: April 22, 2015, 07:10:24 am
Matt Fong was neck and neck with Boxer in '98 until the Democrats came home at the end.  My guess is no.  CA is too polarized for Republicans to survive a while there now statewide.  Heck, they can't even win any race downballot anymore.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Carter do so well in the plains? on: April 21, 2015, 08:15:17 pm
The humble peanut farmer played really well in a lot of rural areas. But still, Ford in the last days was able to close a huge gap between him and carter from a double digit carter victory to a 2% only margin for carter. Had those GOP voters didnt come home then carter might of won those states in the great plains.

And if you were wondering about the south, a lot of southerners were outraged over the watergate scandal. Southerners tend to give more of a backlash towards scandals than other parts of the country which was why bush in 2000 was able to swing all of the southern states that clinton won, to him by claiming he'd restore "honor and integrity to the White House"

Also in the south, he actually got out tons of evangelical christians to vote in the south by emphasizing being a born again christian. These white evangelicals were able to counter the other white southerners who voted on racial issues.  And they later switched to the GOP when they found out that carter was not the evangelical christian they'd hope he would be when in office.
Ford closed the lead gradually from the DNC (down 62-29% after).  The Eastern Europe comment slowed the momentum and Carter foolishly dealing with Playboy gave Ford a second wind. 
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Colorado: Strange gender gap on: April 19, 2015, 09:59:03 pm
I don't have the answer, but FL is similarly odd in its gender gap.  Then again, the state of FL rapidly changes every four years.  FL women tend to be more Republican than FL men.
171  General Politics / Economics / Re: US adds 126k jobs in March as Opposed to 245k Expected, Unemployment at 5.5% on: April 19, 2015, 09:57:25 pm
I had dinner with a friend in Lauderdale who is a recruiter for financial professionals. He was telling me last night that during Q1 and especially March, things seemed to really tighten up.  Many of his clients pulled jobs that were out there.  He's hoping this is only a temporary blip, but he was surprised how much things tightened in this past quarter compared to Q4 last year.
172  General Politics / Economics / Re: When is the next global recession and how severe is it? on: April 19, 2015, 09:52:17 pm
Before the '16 election, I believe we sink into a recession, although I don't think it's the "beginning of the end" depression. That is coming, but it won't be this go around.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / 1988 - California without Reagan's help...does Bush 41 hang on? on: April 19, 2015, 09:20:47 pm
Or, as we've said over and over, was the 47 electoral votes Bush won there truly the "final gift from Reagan?"

It's so interesting how close CA was in so many races from '52-'88 and the Democrats only won it once during the LBJ landslide.
174  General Discussion / History / Re: Why was John Kerry such a compelling candidate for the Dem Establishment in '04? on: April 19, 2015, 08:45:01 am
The anti-war sentiment should have worked a lot more to his advantage than it did.  The Swift Boat deal really hurt him. Like Dukakis in '88, he wasn't quick enough to respond to how he was being defined and it hurt him. 

He was still only one state away from winning.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-Sen: Salmon, Schweikert considering on: April 07, 2015, 07:59:53 am
Is this the same "Salmon" that lost to Napolitano in the 2002 gubernatorial? While those races are more bi-partisan, I'd be careful if I were the GOP.
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