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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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151  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-We Ask America: Rauner (R) up 12 on: July 14, 2014, 07:19:21 pm
Just wait until the last 10% or so "come home" in Cook. 
152  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 14, 2014, 07:17:54 pm
I think another important question to ask is, "who gets the credit from the voters for Kansas' economic growth the past few years?"

In some states, the governor is taking/getting most of the credit. In other states, the governor is just seen as having it happen on his/her watch, but it wasn't really their doing. 
153  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 14, 2014, 07:06:56 pm
^That is exactly the kind of context I was missing on her party switch. She sounds like the textbook definition of "The ______ party left me" party switching.

I could not find her birthdate, but if she and Davis are successful she would be positioned well to make a bid to succeed him as Gov.
She's in her mid 60's, maybe 64 or 65. If Davis were successful and happened to win re-election she would be 72 or so in 2022, so not a chance.

This is looking far ahead, but if Davis were to win this year, I don't see him surviving in 2018. He's going to face a tough time in the legislature and if Hillary wins in 2016, 2018 will likely be a favorable year to Republicans. His one saving grace is that Kris Kobach would likely be his opponent.
Many times, the minority party (especially if he/she governs from the middle) tends to be a lot more successful, and while there could be some effect of the national sentiment, gubernatorial races are far less linked to that...unlike Senatorial races (i.e. Linc Chafee in RI in '06 for example).
154  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: July 14, 2014, 06:57:37 pm
The key questions to me:

1) What percentage will the third party candidate receive?
2) Which candidate are they likely to take more votes from?

All else being equal, I still believe the "Coming Home" effect will win it for Brownback, and that the anti-Democratic sentiment for this year could buy him another few points, just enough to win.
155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM: 2 internal polls show Gov. Martinez (R) far ahead of King (D) on: July 11, 2014, 04:38:45 pm
Big question is whether the New Mexico Dems wait for an open seat to pick it up in 2018 ?


You can't necessarily bank on that, especially with the statehouses that allow for many minority party candidates to win.  The GOP isn't dead in NM like they are just to the north (CO).
156  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Kansas? on: July 11, 2014, 04:37:25 pm
Brownback will have two major advantages:

1) The "coming home" effect.  If Davis is up by 5 pts or less and isn't above 47% (without any major 3rd party candidate on the ballot), Brownback will get most of the remaining vote, which could put him over the top.

2) Overall, the midterms will favor the GOP.  Swing voters may simply vote GOP tickets due to anti-Obama sentiment if for no other reason.  That could add 3-5 pts to Brownback's total, which could be enough.
157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Scott leading by 2 on: July 10, 2014, 07:39:16 am
Again.  Having lived down there (through college) for much of Charlie Crist's governship, Floridians began to turn on him in the last year or two and then the change of party, etc happened.  Most Democrats there are probably wary of him.  Even my family in Palm Beach County (relatively stable Democratic voters now and formerly moderate GOPers) are shaking their heads that Crist will be the nominee.

As for Bill Nelson, the Democrats need him in the Senate if they're going to hang onto the majority.  What the FL Democratic Party needs to do is blow up the entire office of people running the place and start recruiting some younger, more vibrant, moderate candidates.  Find those super stars in-state.  They have none!  The FL Democratic Party is a total disgrace.
158  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Scott leading by 2 on: July 09, 2014, 12:17:35 pm
He's been running a smart, smooth campaign and defining Charlie Crist (as many Floridians already believe him to be) and Crist/The FL Democratic Party is an absolute trainwreck.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Florida going forward on: July 09, 2014, 07:24:26 am
President Obama's victory in Florida during the 2012 may have been the most significant win of the entire cycle.  Romney didn't receive the 2-3% national "swing" he got in most states from McCain's performance.  The "Corridor" has swung more bluish mid-state when it used to be the pinnacle swing area during presidential races and most statewide races. 

That being said, counties like Palm Beach are weakening a little for the Democrats.  How do you see the state of FL going as we move forward? McCain should have been the ideal Republican for winning it back in '08, but he lost and Romney's loss there should scare the hell out of the GOP.  As FL is likely to have >30 EVs after the next census, if the GOP watches FL go, they are beyond screwed. 

The great thing about studying FL politically, is that it's dividable to several sub-regions within the state, each with a different voting pattern and overall demographic, and the state is very dynamic, changing by the minute. 

One major thing the GOP has over the Democrats is that the statewide GOP is far, far stronger and the cabinet is near-empty for the Democrats in-state.  See this year's gubernational race as another example.  I bet Charlie Crist loses. Rick Scott thus far, has run a very smart campaign, much more organized and the way that Jeb Bush expected his party to run races when he was in charge from '99-'07. 

That being said, at the presidential level, the Democrats have performed far better in FL.  Where does the state go?
160  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: July 09, 2014, 07:14:54 am
The GOP now gets swamped in the burbs there, usually the demographic for winning/(losing) in a state like CO.  That's the problem and that's where the GOP lost everything nationwide.  Once they lost the burbs, they were finished. 

Also, given that weed is now legal there, good luck on bringing someone in from the right (and the CO GOP is VERY far to the right--->one of it's many problems) and getting elected in a state that is turning bluer by the day.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most Overrated D Senate Candidate on: July 09, 2014, 07:10:23 am
Just because their likelihood of winning aren't good, that doesn't mean they are overrated.  For example, Heather Wilson of NM was a VERY STRONG candidate for Senate in 2012, but she ran in a presidential year and was still very competitive. 

I think you need to better define "overrated" here.  Tom Kean Jr. for example was "overrated" when he ran for the GOP.  He should have been much, much more competitive and Menendez never even sweated during that race.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What margin do you think defines a landslide? on: July 09, 2014, 07:07:25 am
Given the polarization today, a 10 pt margin in the popular vote is probably a landslide.  Even a 10 pt margin though will still likely yield electoral results similar to 2008, which were substantial, but probably not a "landslide". 

How the vote is spread out really dictates the electoral college.  Heck, in 1980, Reagan/Carter (with Anderson around 6-7%) were near neck/neck prior to the last debate when Reagan broke it up....to the tune of a 44 state landslide win.  He won the popular vote by <10 pts.
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: July 08, 2014, 12:46:40 pm
Democratic sweep at the top of the ticket (Senate/Governor).  The GOP has proven they can't win there and until they do, I'm assuming the trend continues.
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: July 07, 2014, 08:17:50 am
What puzzles me is why Democrats in Illinois want to keep Quinn. The GOP has no chance of winning the legislature, so its not like Rauner can do much anyways.
Gerrymandering? Also, you don't just want to voluntarily give up the statehouse to the minority party. 
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: The Case for Mitt `16 on: July 06, 2014, 09:25:40 pm
If the GOP wants to continue to compound their errors, then roll out the red carpet for Mr. Rick Perry again.  That will be funny.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: The Case for Mitt `16 on: July 06, 2014, 09:11:14 pm
Personally, if Romney couldn't unseat Obama in '12 with a shaky economy, there's no reason to think the GOP will give him another shot in 2016. 

Also, assuming the Republicans will pull their heads out of their collective behinds and start to address its "demographic problem", which really came to the forefront during the '12 cycle, putting this guy back on the ticket probably isn't their best course of action.
167  General Politics / Economics / Re: US unemployment rate decreases from 6.3% to 6.1% in July 2014 on: July 04, 2014, 05:16:12 pm
My guess is, the "real" unemployment rate in America (counting part-timers who want full-time work and those unemployed, but having given up) is near 18-20%.
168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM: 2 internal polls show Gov. Martinez (R) far ahead of King (D) on: July 04, 2014, 05:13:40 pm
There were a few polls a month or so ago actually showing Martinez somewhat vulnerable, which surprised me to say the least. I think she wins, but it won't be overwhelming, similar to Gary Johnson's re-election back in '98 (54-45%).
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Florida? on: July 04, 2014, 05:11:17 pm
You guys are seriously underestimating how uninspiring Charlie Crist is to the Democrats of Florida.  With plenty of family in Palm Beach, many who are not into his candidacy (in one of the more Democratic counties), this just smells like another race the Florida Democratic Party is going to blow.
170  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Carly Fiorina (R-California) win a rematch in 2016 against Barbara Boxer? on: July 04, 2014, 05:08:52 pm
The GOP can't get rid of her.  The Primary is the only way the GOP will be Mrs. Boxer finally go. 

She has been vulnerable though.  She was neck/neck back in '98 and in '10 until the Democrats came home.  2010 should have been the year to really make her sweat, but Fiorina faded once Whitman's campaign for governor went under.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Dukakis have such a huge lead in the 1988 Election? on: July 02, 2014, 11:53:43 am
1) Exposure- The Democratic Primary was long and drawn out.  The GOP primary didn't get nearly as much

2) National Media Attension- See #1

3) Reagan had waned on some, particularly minorities during his 2nd term

4) Iran Contra still in voters' minds

Why it flipped?

1) Bush defined Dukakis early and Mikey D was too late to respond

2) The economy was still "good" in 1988.  It's always the economy

3) Reagan's overall popularly was still decent

4) The law/order/crime issue was major in '88.  The tank photo vs. a veteran of war? No contest there.   Willie Horton didn't help Mikey D to say the least.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Florida? on: July 02, 2014, 07:14:20 am
Rick Scott is being very smart.  He's defining Charlie Crist NOW and once voters get an image of the candidate, it's tough to change.  Again.  Many Florida voters already think Crist is a flip-flopper and with plenty of family in South FL, Charlie doesn't inspire many hardcore democrats.
173  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Illinois Executive Mansion 2014: Who will win on November 4th ? on: July 02, 2014, 07:13:07 am
Whomever it is, +/- 5 years before he's in jail? haha

Quinn.  The IL GOP is near-inept.  They proved it by blowing the 2010 midterm to Quinn and they'll blow it this time.
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Florida? on: June 30, 2014, 10:11:13 pm
Crist is waiting way too long to kick-off his campaign and the negative images people have of him (even before this year) aren't helping. Rick Scott will win.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: June 30, 2014, 10:09:59 pm
The state of Florida's Democratic Party continues to show its ineptitude.  Before long, Crist is going to become Michael Dukakis, who got defined early and often in the race and never really recovered. 

Charlie has other things to overcome, including the whole flip-flopping parties.  This should be an easy victory for the Democrats, but as I saw in the years I lived there, only Florida Democrats know how to blow races like this.
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