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151  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WV: Clairty (D): Capito +6 on: February 17, 2014, 02:49:42 pm
Never underestimate the power of the local WV democratic party.  They continue to win statewide races despite their poor performances in presidential elections since 2000.  From Day 1, I believed this one would be far tougher for the GOP to take than some may have thought.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Biggest Suprise on: February 16, 2014, 03:23:46 pm
You didn't put Wisconsin on there? That may have been Bush's biggest disappointment.  He was up by double digits there in the fall and as usual, democrats closed hard.  That almost cost him the election because had he lost OH, he could have made up for it with WI and either IA or NM, but just IA/NM weren't enough.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: McCain 2008/Obama 2012 voters on: February 16, 2014, 03:21:00 pm
A lot of McCain voters simply "liked" him and although he wasn't the "2000 version" of John McCain, he had earned the respect of a lot of Americans.  Many people probably saw Romney as the classic, corporate weasel with the smirk you just want to wipe off of someone's face.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Was the Romney campaign the worst ever? on: February 16, 2014, 03:19:15 pm
The irony is, while Romney appeared like a Corporate/Top 1% snake, he was far, far more honest about the state of the middle class than the president and of course, Americans don't like the truth being thrown in their face.

The "43%" comment as far as I'm concerned was "it" for Romney but he was right.  The middle class is screwed, we're fighting a losing battle in the global economy and there is little any domestic politician can do to help them.  Romney all but said this a few times in the campaign and it turned off a lot of people.  That being said, he's absolutely right and in the back of our minds, we know it.

Then on Election Night, the only poll question you had to hear was the one concerning whether the candidate's positions will help the rich, middle class or poor.  Naturally (and partly because of his past the general GOP), Romney's would help the rich (so voters thought) and the president's would help the middle class/poor. 

That was it.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why was Dukakis leading Bush by double digits in the summer before the election? on: February 16, 2014, 03:15:55 pm
The Democratic primary also got far more publicity.  Dukakis overall got more publicity and while Reagan was overall still popular, many Americans wanted change. 

The 80s was actually a time when many moderate republicans started to abandon the GOP once it became more about "trickle-down economics" and Corporate America. 
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Was Bush's victory in New Hampshire in the 2000 general a surprise or expected? on: February 15, 2014, 08:57:41 pm
He won it by about two points and it may have been one of the states that Nader stole from Gore.  Was this victory a surprise, was it 50/50, or was a Bush win in the Granite State actually expected?

How much of the Bush win should be attributed to John McCain, if any?

Sorry...clarified in the title (2000-general election)
157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Udall already sees GOP opponents in his rear-view mirror on: February 13, 2014, 08:44:26 am
Udall: 56-43% in November
Hickenlooper: 53-44% in November

I'm leaving a few points for third parties.  The races won't be that competitive.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If and when the bottom falls out? on: February 13, 2014, 08:43:01 am
If you think Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are getting elected, I'd like to know what you're smoking.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What about... former Governor of Colorado Bill Owens? on: February 13, 2014, 08:41:45 am
He lost serious steam in his second term as governor anyhow.  Most in CO (from what I understand) were more than ready to see him go by the time he left office.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If and when the bottom falls out? on: February 12, 2014, 08:43:11 am
You also need the "charismatic" candidate who can "wow" the American electorate and provide hope, even if it proves to be false.  Obama had that.

I would say watch the economy closely over the next 2.5 years, but seeing that the economy, which wasn't very strong in 2012 yielded a comfortable win for the president should worry the GOP.

The problem is, the GOP is now a minority party and if I'm not mistaken, they are fighting an uphill battle given that there are more registered democrats than republicans and the changing demographics continue to work against them.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why can't the Tea Party and the Republicans work together? on: February 09, 2014, 07:40:23 pm
I don't think the True Believers really care if they cost the GOP seats.  They're proud they stood up for Mourdock rather than just sending Lugar back for another term.
Correct and looking back at the debacles of 2010: CO/NV/DE, they seemed very proud in putting their own up there: Buck, Angle and O'Donnell knowing they would probably lose in the general.  Make no mistake.  I believe the Tea Partiers KNEW their candidates had little shot in the general, but they wanted to prove a point and they did.
162  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Hick (D) recovering on: February 09, 2014, 07:38:04 pm
Again, the GOP will look back (just like in 2010) and see CO as a lost chance at all levels.  The state moved too far to the middle and the middle/left too quickly leaving the ultra-conservative GOPers out of touch and with their pants down.

Basically, the republicans have nobody and like in many other races there, they will continue to leave opportunities at the table. 

Beating Hickenlooper/Udall is probably 50%/50% in most other states, but in CO, where the GOP's track record since Bush won the state by 4.6% in 2004 has been abominable, it's probably 10%.
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: February 09, 2014, 07:35:34 pm
Similar to how people question why the democratic party in AZ can't make a dent in a state where the hispanic population keeps growing, the statewide GOP in FL is far, far stronger than the statewide democratic party.  Despite the fact that on a national level, FL actually is a 50/50 split (maybe even with a slight, slight bluish tint to it), locally and statewide, the democrats don't match up with the republicans.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 9-11 Effect in NY/NJ on: February 05, 2014, 08:37:21 am
Nassau/Suffolk shift was from upper/middle class whites and the 9/11 effect.  That being said, Long Island has changed dramatically.  Don't underestimate the number of minorities on the island now.  Most of those people stayed democratic.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: People who voted for two-term presidents the first time but not the second on: February 05, 2014, 08:35:48 am
My family was mostly McCain/Obama supporters in '08/'12. 

The irony is, many in my family were also Reagan/Mondale supporters in '80/'84, respectively.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How Did Past Voters Vote In 2012? on: February 05, 2014, 08:34:40 am
1984 was actually the first election (yes in the landslide) that some of my family started to switch from Republican to Democrat.  The whole "corporate-America" movement, which started with Reagan was a big turnoff.

2012 was the first time I voted democratic at the presidential level.
167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: February 02, 2014, 12:38:06 pm
There is no question that the GOP has some bad luck, particularly that gubernatorial races are less partisan and many minority parties across the country hold the statehouses in their respective states.  Of course, in WA state, these races are held during presidential years where democrats turn out in greater numbers and of course, there is always the "coming home" effect by the majority party in the end, which has hurt the Republicans over and over and over.

168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CA-PPIC: Gov. Brown has high approvals, leads Republican by more than 30 on: February 02, 2014, 12:02:35 pm
The irony is, even if he had a 25% approval rating, assuming he survived a primary, he would probably win another term anyhow in CA.
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: February 02, 2014, 11:59:39 am
Unlike it's southern neighbor though where the GOP cupboard is bare, the Republicans have actually put up some halfway decent candidates in WA State, but they still can't win.  Yes, we could make the argument that Gregoire stole the 2004 Gubernatorial race, but she won again in 2008 by a clear margin in Rossi re-match.  It also looks like the eastern most counties in the state are getting bluer as the years pass.
170  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: February 01, 2014, 07:12:45 pm
Obviously, more happens during presidential years in WA state, but when was the last statewide race that the GOP carried in WA state? You look back at the 2012 maps, 2008 maps, 2004 maps, 2000 maps, etc and all you see is Democratic wins.  It's scary.  Same thing as OR.
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ultra Vulnerable Mark Kirk 2016: Is he Toast? on: January 27, 2014, 11:19:54 pm
One thing he does have going for him is that he was from the "collar" counties (I believe), the key swing counties and he does have good name recognition in the state, which could help him.  Unlike Fitzgerald whom many didn't know when he ran and won, I would think most people in IL know who Mark Kirk is.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Washington Post on Georgia Turning Purple on: January 27, 2014, 09:36:12 pm
Arizona maintains its "reddish" trend. The statewide GOP is still far stronger and better organized than the democratic party.  2012 should have been a ripe year for Obama to make a run at it, but he never did.  He didn't need it, but it was one state (the other being GA) that the democrats could have put some heat on the GOP. 

GA needs a few more cycles before it's considered to be a swing state at the presidential level.  Although it looks like it's going to be a GOP year (right now), watch the Senate race this year.  Can the democrats actually make a run for it?
173  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ultra Vulnerable Mark Kirk 2016: Is he Toast? on: January 27, 2014, 09:29:10 pm
The odds are certainly against him and his health won't help matters. 

1) Presidential year
2) More democrats will be going to the polls
3) He BARELY won in 2010 in a strong GOP year with a very weak democratic challenger.
4) IL is almost certainly to go democratic at the top of the ticket and likely by at least 12-13 points.

It's going to be very, very tough.
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: January 27, 2014, 10:21:52 am
Again.  There are winnable races for the GOP, including the statehouse, which is currently on shaky ground and possibly the senate seat.

But, they have nobody as usual and will be left shaking their heads and pointing fingers yet again in Nov.
175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Can the GOP finally take one of the MA House Seats in November? on: January 26, 2014, 05:14:06 pm
They were actually very close in two of those races in Eastern MA in 2010, but failed and some of those eastern counties came relatively close to voting for Mitt Romney over the President. 

Can the GOP finally reclaim at least one of those seats this November in what as of now, is looking like a decent GOP-leaning year where turnout will be down?
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