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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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151  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 13, 2014, 07:52:29 am
IL Democrats in Cook furiously come home at the end.  It's been that way time and time and time again in many of these races where it looks like the GOP candidate is either far ahead, or with a smaller lead, but is likely to win.

I still believe at the end of the day, Quinn pulls this out.
152  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Gravis: Tie in Wisconsin on: August 12, 2014, 08:02:13 am
Keep in mind that in WI, Democrats always seem to get a last second bump due to the "same day registration" issue, which has dogged the GOP there for years.  That fact may have cost Bush the state in '04 (and nearly the presidency had OH fallen to Kerry) and in '10, both GOP wins were far tighter than the final polls and predications showed.
153  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Rasmussen: After primary, Sen. Roberts (R) in trouble on: August 11, 2014, 12:36:45 pm
At the top of the ticket (and for a Senatorial race), Roberts will likely win.  Since it's a national implicated race, most GOPers in KS will likely hold their nose and vote for Roberts.  Where they may break and cross-over, is the gubernational race, which for this year, has no bearance nationally.
154  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: Hart Research/AARP: Pryor leads by 5 on: August 11, 2014, 12:35:29 pm
I still believe Pryor pulls this one out for an important Democratic win in the south in Nov.
155  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Mellman Group (D): Quinn's internal shows him losing on: August 11, 2014, 12:34:36 pm
Internal polls are worthless because polls are theoretically supposed to eliminate bias.  Why bother with this? I do believe Quinn pulls it out in Nov (given the huge "coming home" effect of Democrats in Cooke), but internal polls are the biggest bunch of nonense.  If his internal is showing him down 1 (even by statistica analysis), then I can near guarantee you he's down somewhere around 10 pts right now, which is where other polls are showing the race at as we speak.

156  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Chicago Sun Times/WAA (R): Rauner (R) up 13 on: August 11, 2014, 08:29:09 am
Again, IL Democrats have one of the strongest histories of "coming home'' in the end. Look out.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: MN/MI: Which state is more vulnerable going forward? on: August 11, 2014, 08:27:57 am
I think they're both similar at this point, but I agree with others in that the MN Democratic base seems more stubborn and always seems to come through for the Democrats at the Presidential level.

In a very good GOP year (with a good economy---> crucial for winning those Detroit suburbs), MI could tilt.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Poor vs. Rich elections and Liberal vs. Conservative elections on: August 10, 2014, 05:37:59 pm
We all knew how this poll would turnout, but Election Night '12 was sealed/done at the presidential level, when they asked about whether the President's policies/Romney's proposed ones would favor the rich/middle class/poor.  I think 75% responded that Romney's would favor the rich.  Meanwhile, I think 80-90% said the President's would favor the middle class/poor.  Perception folks.

It was all over right then and there.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / What happened to Al Gore in West Virginia in 2000 (and to the Democrats since?) on: August 09, 2014, 05:13:42 pm
Was there something specific that happened to turn WV against Gore and since then, away from the Democratic Party in presidential elections? Note that Democrats continue to do very well down-ballot in the state.

Unlike it's neighbor VA, that clearly showed a weakening GOP position even in 2000, there seemed to be no signs that in WV.  Clinton won there convincingly by 14 pts and 15 points in '92 and '96, respectively. 

For all the harping about FL in 2000, Gore blew it by losing WV, a state that like HI, NEVER went for Republicans outside of massive landslides.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Gerald Ford's 1976 debate gaffe make the difference? on: August 09, 2014, 05:09:23 pm
Despite the final results being close, Election Night coverage (see ABC on youtube) never really seemed that competitive.  Carter went ahead early on (from the south coming in first), and Ford never really closed the gap until Carter carried HI (NBC's call to provide the win) or MS.  Then, Ford won CA, IL and a few other remaining states to close the final margin. 

Not choosing Rockefeller alienated some of the normal moderate GOP base in the industrial states (i.e. NY, PA and OH) and that was the difference.  Dole was a DISASTER on the ticket and did nothing to help Ford.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are suburban Republicans really more moderate? on: August 07, 2014, 07:20:49 am
It's more of a stereotype, but being a former moderate republican from NY, it tends to hold true. Moderate Republicans:

1) Tend to have a high degree of education
2) Care about crime, law & order
3) Are often pro-choice.  You don't see that in rural areas that much.
4) Are pro-gay.  You also don't see this very much.
5) Economically, are conservative, and many hold white collar, financial services jobs.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Gerald Ford's 1976 debate gaffe make the difference? on: August 06, 2014, 09:25:24 am
I've asked this question about the '76 election in the past.  I don't think it made the difference, but it did slow Ford's momentum in the fall.  Keep in mind, however, he regained the momentum in October and was actually even to 1-2 points ahead two weeks prior to Election Day.  As usual, the challenger got the final balance, which was enough to get Carter over the top.

I personally believe that while most people vote for President and not VP, the decision to appease the conservative base by putting Dole on the ticket (a big mistake) rather than Rockefeller was the bigger error, as it could have cost Ford the industrial northeastern states and possibly OH, in exchange for the less, EV rich states of the plains, which didn't end up impressive for the GOP ticket anyhow.

Keep in mind that McCarthy also played spoiler in a few states and that hurt Carter far more than Ford.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Millennials Up For Grabs? on: August 06, 2014, 07:29:08 am
The Millennials:

1) Typically connect Bill Clinton as "their" president growing up
2) Blame George Bush and Karl Rove for this nation's problems and experienced that trainwreck of a second term after two solid economic terms under Clinton (his doing or not)
3) Are socially liberal
4) Are far less religious
5) Are growing up in more unstable households than generations past. The "family values" deal may be a thing of the past
6) Viewed Mitt Romney as a smug elitist (overall).  
7) Don't like being told their s..t stinks and that they have to work for everything.
Cool Are entitled, or believe they are.

The Republicans just don't connect with that, but #1/#2 were absolutely backbreaking for the GOP concerning those 22-35 years old.

This is mostly true with the exception of #7. It's not that millennials don't want to work, it's that we cannot find any work. Many millennials my age are more concerned about the bread and butter issues like the economy and education than we are about marriage equality or abortion. Millennials have been told their whole lives to go to college because it'll get us farther ahead with better paying jobs, so naturally millennials are going to vote for a party that sees education as a right and not as a privilege for the favored few. Many millennials after college are finding themselves moving back in with their parents because the jobs they went to college for just aren't there for them. I see and hear about it so often about how they are having to get low-paying jobs or work multiple part-time jobs in retail or restaurants just to make ends meet (I'm one of them with two part-time jobs, one of which is minimum wage while the other pays about $2.00 an hour more. My friend world three jobs, two of which are minimum wage and even moonlights as a drag queen just to have extra cash and he's still almost always broke). For these millennials, the prospect of raising the minimum wage appeals to them since many are working minimum wage jobs. I would argue that it's not solely about the cultural issues, although that certainly does play a factor as most millennials reject the family values nonsense spewed from the right regarding marriage equality. Not sure how my generation feels as a whole on sbortion as that's not a major issue to me when I vote since I'm a) not a woman and b) not straight and c) never going to have children, although I certainly consider myself pro-choice as I believe the government should not be in the business of making reproductive health decisions for women. The culture issues do turn millennials off because we/they grew up/are growing up in a time where more gay people are coming out and it's being more accepted, even in schools where it's cool to have a gay friend.


I'm a Millennial as well.  Many are finding out their first job isn't their dream job, and it's not meant to be.  You have to pay your dues and many from the age of 20-30 just don't want to do it.  Guess what? The supply of labor badly exceeds the demand for our labor. As for going to college....look at how many go to college and waste their time while there.  They get wasted/stoned, but don't learn anything, don't bother networking, and then oops, no employer wants me and I bring no value or skills to the market as a college graduate. That's the reality.  

As for Minimum Wage, most people have no concept (and it's scary) that raising that just results in an inflation adjustment for cost.  

There is work out there, but the prospect of putting in 80+ hour weeks the first few years out of school for an average salary doesn't appeal to many Millennials.  As a CPA/Accountant in practice, I see it all the time.  Many can't handle it and quit after a year in public or private accounting, and then boom, their careers are off to a train-wreck of a start, living at home, with no path to success.  As for the hours in some industries...it is what it is and yes, there are sacrifices that sometimes have to be made, including personal relationships during that "paying your dues" timeframe. It's all a choice.

That is the reality.  The odds are clearly against the Milliennials in this global economy given the supply/demand labor, but I get annoyed when I hear "there's no work available for decent money".  There is, but do the Millennials want to do the work and EARN it is the bigger question.
164  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: HI-Ward Research/Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now: Aiona (R) ahead on: August 05, 2014, 08:11:09 pm
HI's polls never seem accurate.  If you remember, there were a few pretty close polls, two with Bush even leading Kerry there in Oct'14.  Then, Kerry won the state by nine points, which is tighter than normal for HI, but still not that competitive in the grand scheme of things.

Lingle was also leading Cayetano in '98 and lost late.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Contrarian Thread: Bush Won. Fair and Square. on: August 05, 2014, 08:07:48 pm
The DUI was a form of "October Surprise", which has been used time and time again.  That's what happens when you make irresponsible decisions.

As for the polls not closing in the Panhandle prior to the state being called, that was wrong by the networks, but it was usually done that way prior to 2000, even in GOP landslides.  They NEVER waited until 8pm and in TX (where El Paso closes at 9pm EST), they usually called the state at 8pm, until 2004.

Gore had no business losing WV or NH.  Clinton won twice in WV...easily. There was no sign of weakening of the state under Clinton the way VA weakened for the GOP under Bush.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Millennials Up For Grabs? on: August 03, 2014, 07:31:43 pm
The Millennials:

1) Typically connect Bill Clinton as "their" president growing up
2) Blame George Bush and Karl Rove for this nation's problems and experienced that trainwreck of a second term after two solid economic terms under Clinton (his doing or not)
3) Are socially liberal
4) Are far less religious
5) Are growing up in more unstable households than generations past. The "family values" deal may be a thing of the past
6) Viewed Mitt Romney as a smug elitist (overall). 
7) Don't like being told their s..t stinks and that they have to work for everything.
Cool Are entitled, or believe they are.

The Republicans just don't connect with that, but #1/#2 were absolutely backbreaking for the GOP concerning those 22-35 years old.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How has your county voted in previous presidential elections? on: August 03, 2014, 08:44:11 am
Nassau County, NY....progressed with the rest of the GOP.  It voted GOP every election (outside of the '64 landslide) with the GOP candidate, until '92. Since then, completely Democratic, although the '04, '08, and '12 cycles, were 53-46% for the Democratic candidate.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Washington Post on Georgia Turning Purple on: August 02, 2014, 02:11:21 pm
Quote
Last month, former senator John W. Warner (R-Va.) attended a fundraiser for Nunn; his political action committee contributed $500 to her campaign.

Interesting.
And John Warner was the big reason the Republicans didn't knock out Chuck Robb in the '94 landslide cycle, but that's off-topic.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: State of the Purple States on: August 02, 2014, 02:08:02 pm
This cycle will give us another major clue about Colorado, although 2010 pretty much confirmed what we already know...the statewide GOP is a mess beyond a mess and '10 was more favorable for the GOP to do some damage at the top of the ballot.  Why? You had open seats that year.  This year, they're fighting against two incumbents.  Although both are beatable, it's going to be tougher and the GOP keeps proving that they can't get it done at the top of the ballot in CO.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it? on: August 02, 2014, 02:06:11 pm
As for leadership, it was said earlier that if Reid left office Schumer would get the job.  That was before E. Warren and others of her ilk were in power/vocal.  Schumer has close ties with Wall St. and the Democrats are increasingly weary of being closely tied w/ them; it is possible, for sure, that Schumer wouldn't be the Leader, though he desperately wants it.
Schumer is well-respected, although I am biased coming from NY.  That being said, he has been given a ton of credit for the Democrats' rebirth in many states starting after Bush won a 2nd term and the GOP picked up several seats in the '04 cycle. 
171  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Rasmussen: Rauner (R) up 5 on: August 02, 2014, 02:03:54 pm
IL usually has a huge "coming home" effect for the Democrats in the end.  Unless the GOP challenger is right at or near 50% within the last week, the Democrats usually get a huge bump, which often is enough to win. It happened in '10 and it almost cost Mark Kirk as well that year, as well as Pete Fitzgerald against Moseley-Braun back in '98.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Millennials Up For Grabs? on: August 02, 2014, 01:58:22 pm
I think the Republicans do have a big opportunity with those Americans who are getting stick and tired of freeloaders in society, and that includes those that simply play the system and are lazy, as well as those who were just born into brutal circumstances.  There is a growing population that is getting tired of the perception of the Democratic Party being the "Welfare Party". That's the consequence of a declining society, but seeing almost 50 million on food stamps, but with cell phones, expensive clothes, etc. roaming the streets and nothing putting anything in the system is getting to a lot of people.  That's a group the GOP has to hit on.  The problem is, Romney's "47%" comment essentially pointed that out, but in a very abrasive, elitist fashion.  
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Had George Bush dumped Dan Quayle back in '92 on: July 31, 2014, 07:12:19 am
That race was officially over when the young girl asked the President during the Town Hall debate, "how has the national debt affected you personally?"

Bush had no idea how to answer and again, proved he was out of touch and elitist. Clinton had the right answer (albeit it, he probably wasn't honest).  That was the official end of Campaign '92.

Quayle actually held up well in the '92 VP debate that year, far better than he did against Bentsen back in '88.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is the Republican's problem that they're too Southern? on: July 29, 2014, 06:53:53 am
One of the issues is, a lot of Americans associate southern accents with ignorance and to some extent, even racism. 
175  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life on: July 28, 2014, 11:56:59 am
Not that it's a good comparison as the state has changed, but even the moderate Gary Johnson struggled somewhat in his re-election bid back in '98 (winning by eight points).  Democrats won every other down-ballot race that year, with Johnson's being the only GOP win on the NM ticket during that cycle.
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