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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Pennsylvania 2000 on: September 29, 2013, 09:41:35 pm
Ridge would've carried PA.
I think you overrate that effect.  Bush was leading the ticket.  People vote for President.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: If Election 1976 was two weeks longer, does Ford win? on: September 29, 2013, 09:40:27 pm
I was in a college poli sci class in the fall of 76 and the course was devoted to the presidential race. The class consensus (as well as some pollsters) was that Ford would have won if the election were three days earlier. He peaked at the end of the week before the election and Carter had a bit of a rebound at the start of election week. Ah for a German Sunday election ...
Good point since the challenger usually gets the last little bump from the "undecided" voters in the last day or so.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Florida starts leaning Democrat, what next for GOP? on: September 28, 2013, 11:01:00 pm
Then the GOP is going to have to capitalize on its chance to win the midwest, which has been there for the pickings for a decade now because if FL leans democratic, then it's near impossible for the GOP (at this time) to reach 270 w/o several midwestern states.  Unfortunately, with the state of MI getting poorer by the minute, it's near out of reach now for the GOP.  MN should have been breeding ground for the GOP, but they can't win there either and the democrats are now stronger statewide. 

The thing about FL that is still in the GOP's favor is that the statewide democratic party doesn't appear to be very organized and strong.  The statewide GOP is in better shape.  Rick Scott for example, may actually win a second term next year due to the democrats' statewide problems.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / If Election 1976 was two weeks longer, does Ford win? on: September 28, 2013, 10:27:59 pm
President Ford trailed by 33 points after the DNC and chipped away at Jimmy Carter's lead all throughout the summer and into the fall.  The Eastern Europe comment during one of the debates halted the president's momentum, but then he closed bigtime in the final weeks.  I believe I read that many polls actually had the candidates dead even in the popular vote going into Election Day. 

Clearly, Ford appeared to have the momentum in the final few weeks and the election race came down to close margins (won by Carter) in OH, WI, MS, HI, PA and NY. 

Had the race lasted two more weeks, do you think Carter hangs on, expands his margin or does Ford complete one of the largest political rallies in American history given the polling margins subsequent to the DNC?

On a sidenote, Ford's defeat in NY was largely due to a relatively poor showing in the suburbs of Long Island (where I'm from).  Typically, Nassau and Suffolk county provided the GOP in the high 50% range (near 60%) in terms of the vote until the island changed in the 90s, but Carter got 47%.
155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO 2014 on: September 20, 2013, 07:59:38 am
My two assumptions with CO as of now:

1) The state GOP is completely inept and in ruins internally
2) Until the GOP can win a major statewide race there, I'm assuming they'll keep losing.

Hickenlooper will win, possibly by 10 points when all is said and done.
156  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ-Monmouth: Christie-lead drops to 20, as Democrats come home to Buono on: September 18, 2013, 08:21:59 am
My guess at the beginning of the year was 57-42% as many democrats will come home in the end.  We'll see if I'm right.
157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Executive- Suozzi leads Mangano by one on: September 18, 2013, 07:33:16 am
Suozzi isn't bad.  Local democrats will do well with moderate republicans here on LI as they have over the past 15-20 years.
158  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kasas governor race 2014 on: September 18, 2013, 07:32:06 am
Gubernatorial races are far more likely to elect the minority party.  KS has elected democratic governors in years where there was a split between the moderate/conservative GOP wings.  The last time that happened was 2002.  The question will be if there is any "inward" pressure on Brownback from conservatives or the dwindling moderate wing of the GOP, which would favor a moderate democrat in the general election.

If Brownback sees that kind of split, he could be in some trouble. 
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Safe Republican States on: September 06, 2013, 07:24:39 am
It's amazing how times have changed.  Look back at the map from the 70s and late 80s.  It seems like the GOP had a lock on the map.  Now, the number of EVs in their backpocket at the start of any race is likely less than 100. 

At this point, MS, AL and TN should probably be on the list too.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why Oregon is a swing state on: August 10, 2013, 01:43:43 pm
It's not a swing state without a third party candidate siphoning democratic support.  Bush's performance in 2004 was likely due to incumbency and the fact that 2000 was very tight.  He was able to draw out a lot of conservative support downstate.

Keep this in mind and I posed this question in another thread.  It's been since 2002 (Gordon Smith) since the GOP has won ANY statewide race there, which is pathetic.  The state party is all but dead.  The cupboard is bare and in states like CO, it's the same thing.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where should the DNC/RNC be held at in 2016? on: August 10, 2013, 01:38:50 pm
Atlanta, GA
Phoenix, AZ
Miami or Orlando, FL
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Income, education, and Generation Y on: August 07, 2013, 09:07:26 am
What one wants or thinks he/she deserves or should/shouldn't have to do are two different things.  This thread is a good example of how some people just refuse to see how the world has changed.  You're not competing only with your next door neighbor for a job any longer.  Now, you're competing with everyone around the globe, including those in India/China who will be happy to do your job for a fraction of the costs, no benefits, work longer days and not be subject to the same level of regulation. 

We live in a nation where we value $$$ first and everything else second. That's business unfortunately.  If a company can outsource half their jobs to India and save the shareholders millions, that's precisely what they're expected to do.  It's all about the shareholders, bondholders, business owners and those that bring in revenue.  Most others are "G&A costs" that bring little to no value and simply "use cash" in their respective companies.

Take a basic economics course.  It really isn't that hard.  The supply of global labor is > demand.  Technology has naturally eliminated jobs.  Americans' cost of living is very high and we demand more for our work.  Why would most companies (if they have the capability of outsourcing) want to keep their jobs here?

When the supply of labor > demand for labor, wages/salaries remain stagnant or fall, hours demanded by employers rise employer power rises, employee power falls and ultimately, more people are going to have a tougher time entering the job market, staying in it and remaining in the middle class.

It's not that hard.  Unfortunately, some of you still listen to politicians who remain in office by breeding off people who can't add 1+1 and see the writing on the wall.  If a politician EVER stated anything that I just did (and you notice how none ever have despite the evidence to the contrary), they would be run out of office faster than a racehorse.  People do NOT like hearing the truth until they actually see it and it blows up in their faces (i.e. for example, people overleveraging themselves, then watching the housing market crash and many losing their house).

Gen Y is at a competitive disadvantage in the global market.  They will be and are being REQUIRED to work harder to "make it".  Whether or not they WANT TO, or whether they feel like they SHOULD HAVE TO or not, is completely and utterly irrelevant in the scheme of how businesses operate, how corporate america sees it or how the global economy works, where the playing field has been leveled in a hurry.  After WW II, we were the only man left standing.  Now, globalization evened the playing field and put the US and its workers at a competitive disadvantage cost-wise and many are and will feel the blow from it.
So, for those
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Udall ahead of all Republicans on: August 06, 2013, 07:30:29 pm
If Udall is at 50/33 in terms of favorable/unfavorable, that's a pretty strong spread, particularly in a state where neither party is at a distinct advantage.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Montana Going to the Right: Some Evidence on: August 06, 2013, 07:21:17 pm
MT leans republican at the presidential level, but similar to the Dakotas, it tends to elect democrat s to Congress. 

165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Arizona: Only a matter of time, but how much time? on: August 05, 2013, 10:11:03 pm
Again, it's not just the hispanic inflow.  Watch the number of retirees and even young voters that are moving to AZ.  That may help the democrats more in the end.
166  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Poll: 'Yes' on Weed, Crist Over Scott, Split on Gay Marriage on: August 05, 2013, 10:04:39 pm
It's really amazing how many people in this country (of course those age 18-30) who support legalization of drugs.  It's scary.  Find another hobby for god sakes. 

As for gay marriage, right now it's banned in FL, but with many northeastern transplants heading there and the young population growing, I could see it just being a matter of time; I would support that. 

167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there? on: August 05, 2013, 10:01:08 pm
It's been a fools gold state now for better than a decade.  Partially due to Nader's strong showing in 2000, Bush carried almost every county in MN and lost by just 2.5 points.  Then four years later, he was competitive again, but lost.  The Republicans always seemed a bit stronger statewide than nationally and they've elected several GOP governors and Senators over democrats.  Recently however, the democrats have gotten stronger.  Dayton has improved during his first term and looks to be on his way to a second term.  Klobuchar looks like she may have a job for life and it's looking likely that Al Franken (of all people) will win a second term.  So, the Republicans lost the statehouse to the democrats and now, both Senate seats.  I'm not sure who controls the state legislature, but I believe the democrats have gained strength.  Oh yes, Barack Obama re-strengthened the democratic margin at the presidential level over the last two election rounds.

MN seems like it's a very "white" state, which one would think helps the Republicans, but it hasn't worked out.  Any opinions?

168  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official New England 2014 Megathread on: August 05, 2013, 09:55:09 pm
The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Income, education, and Generation Y on: August 05, 2013, 09:51:40 pm
Generation Y is highly "entitled", hates rules/regulations/authority and doesn't like taking responsibility for anything.  Their work-ethic as a whole is horrendous.  Plus, the democrats have successfully used the gay marriage issue and the eight years under George Bush against the GOP. 

The irony of the entitlement of the Millenials, is that they are well on their way to becoming a "Lost Generation" with globalization and technology killing their chances at building careers.  Most aren't smart enough to see the writing on the wall.

1) Technology has eliminated the need for more jobs
2) It's just cheaper to offshore to India and China
3) Gen Y tends to run for the hills when the going gets tough.  American companies do not like these kids; they tend to stay at jobs very short times
4) In terms of a college education, many of these kids do not take their education seriously.  They go and drink, saying "it's college", but they fail to realize that times have changed and that doesn't cut it anymore.  Times have changed.  The supply of global labor > demand.  Companies want people more dedicated who will work 12-14 hour days and for less pay, not for kids who will complain and demand higher salaries/wages
5) The success of the Millenials is largely going to be tied to mom/dad.  If they did okay, you'll have a chance as a Gen Yr.  If you grew up in a struggling or broken family, the odds are against you. As we clearly see, we're becoming as "have vs. have not society" and it's more likely to be a "have not".  More people are falling out of the middle class rather than getting into it or reaching elite status. 
6) This generation has no sense of personal responsibility and no sense of pride or financial planning. They get what they want, when they want it and are told "they're great" to appease them.  Mom/dad aren't parents anymore.  Now, the kids control the households as mom/dad have become figureheads in many households and the number of "stable" households decline.
7) The democratic party suits the personality of this generation far better and politicians only care about getting re-elected.  They don't throw the truth in anyone's face because that will get them thrown out. Plus, socially, the GOP is back in the 80s, which isn't going to attract the Millenials.

Oh yes, I'm 29, a Millenial and I see what a crapfest the generation as a whole is.  I'd say that 2 out of 3 in this generation have absolutely no chance to succeed financially.  Rather, most seem to be content on running themselves into the ground financially, then crying poverty and eventually starting a revolution when the unsustainability finally ends.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Arizona: Only a matter of time, but how much time? on: August 05, 2013, 09:41:09 pm
The statewide AZ GOP is still far stronger than the statewide democratic party.  The republicans have put up some relatively beatable congressional candidates over the past decade (Kyl, etc) and the democrats couldn't beat them.  Plus, the tougher image on immigration has served the GOP pretty well there for the past few years.

The amazing thing is that when the GOP wins there, the county map is exactly the same almost every time.  Maricopa literally mirrors the statewide vote percentage almost every time.   The demographic change will help the democrats, but the bigger change (and the one that got Clinton the victory over Dole in '96) is that AZ is becoming a bigger haven for retirees and thus, medicare and SS will become bigger issues there going forward.

AZ and GA were the two states I figured Obama would make a bigger play at in 2012, but he didn't need to, as Romney boxed himself into too much of an electoral college corner.  
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO 2014 on: August 02, 2013, 05:36:35 pm
When's the last time CO actually threw an incumbent out? Even Wayne Allard survived there (partly due to the GOP strength in 2002).

Even the mediocre Hickenlooper survives.  I'm betting by 8 points or so.  I still think the demographics change in CO strongly favors him.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MA-Gov: Brown to announce intentions in fall on: July 26, 2013, 08:16:44 am
Brown's miserable and narcissistic Senate campaign lost him some political capital in MA.  It was a terrible campaign that pissed off women, a lot of younger voters and other voters. He was fighting an uphill battle in a presidential year, but he didn't put his best foot forward.

Even if he were to run for governor, I'm not so sure he's winning after rubbing off the wrong way on a lot of people.
173  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: will history be made this November in NJ? on: July 23, 2013, 10:08:47 pm
Perhaps, but TX isn't NJ.
174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: WI 2014: Do Democrats have any chance? on: July 23, 2013, 03:44:23 pm
Absolutely and remember that Democrats seem to close very strongly in each race, each year in WI.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Last time Los Angeles voted republican in a federal or statewide race. on: July 23, 2013, 03:43:28 pm
I believe Arnie carried it in the recall race during 2003, but just barely.  He lost it four years later.
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