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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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151  General Politics / Economics / Re: Was globalization the #1 killer of the "American Dream?" on: October 07, 2013, 11:05:30 am
And, the number of skilled workers continues to decline.  Most workers who were considered to be "skilled" 15-20 years back are nothing more than the common churn/burn and replaceable Joe Schmo.  Thus, he/she has no bargaining power any longer in the job market.  Then add those unemployed, many who are structurally unemployed and this is where we're at.

Part of the reason you see some of the wealth inequality now that you do is that the skilled workers have all the power and make the rules.  The rest simply have to say "yes" to whatever they're told, or they're out, but they're not going anyhwere.  The best most of the "rest" can do is to hope to run in place.

I honestly believe the only way to fix this is to completely reform our education system so that American workers meet the demands and capabilities of those abroad.  Of course, cultural differences play into it and yes, those in school now have to get off their behinds and work hard, very hard.  The days of being lackadaiscal and still being okay are long over.
152  General Politics / Economics / Re: Was globalization the #1 killer of the "American Dream?" on: October 07, 2013, 08:23:16 am
No question about it. As the number of skilled workers declines and the supply of overall labor increases, wages/salaries will fall, which is exacty what's happening.
153  General Politics / Economics / Was globalization the #1 killer of the "American Dream?" on: October 06, 2013, 08:25:42 pm
After WWII, it was easy pickings.  We were the only man left standing. The rest of the world was in shambles.  All of the businesses were ours, other nations bought our goods, the jobs were plentiful and it was possible to own your own business, keep your nose clean and live a decent life. 

Fast forward to the 90s. The tech-boom happened.  The U.S. quickly got exposed.

1) The global supply of labor ballooned.  It will now greatly exceed the demand going forward.
2) The growth in jobs in the mid to late 90s was due to the immediate need to fill jobs in a rapidly growing economy.
3) Technology naturally eliminated the need for jobs.  Now, one person can do the job that 4-5 used to do.
4) The world "shrunk".
5) Cheap, cheap, cheap.  NAFTA allowed millions of jobs to move offshore for a fraction of the cost.  That's all most big companies care about.
6) American business became mostly corporate and less about small business.  The $$$ talks now.
7) Our education system is getting exposed.  Other systems seem to work better, require more (i.e. multiple languages before going to high school).
Cool Our work-ethic as a nation seems to have declined.  People don't really want to work hard anymore. 
9) Gen Y has little clue as a whole as to how to save, earn a living, etc.  Some do, but many don't.
10) The Boomers killed us.  They can't exit the job market now and our healthcare costs keep rising.  Soc. Security will be insolvent by the time they're gone.
11) It's pretty simple...the supply of labor exceeds the demand and since Americans are more expensive and don't want to work as hard, it makes it less attractive to hire us.

Did globalization really kill the American dream, or am I simplifying this to much?
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Did Mike Dukakis gain or lose electoral ground in the final weeks? on: October 06, 2013, 08:10:26 pm
I've read some conflicting things. It appears that he closed decently in the popular vote, but Bush ended up winning by a larger margin than predicted.  That being said, what about the electoral college? One would reasonably conclude that if he closed decently in the popular vote, he should have gained EVs.  That being said, I've read some books saying that Bush was actually pushing very hard in some of the democratic states, including Dukakis' own-MA and NY. 

155  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ-Kean University: Christie +18 on: September 29, 2013, 10:27:41 pm
Again, I think some of us here were nuts to think Christie would end up around 65%.  While the gubernatorial races tend to be a lot more bipartisan, in the end, many democrats are going to come home in this blue state.  My guess is 57-42% and don't be surprised when the networks start yapping with the "closer than expected" nonsense. 

It's not often you get a Brad Henry/Phil Bredesen type minority-party win.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: NBC News and Fox News on: September 29, 2013, 10:24:14 pm
Again, OH but Bush at 269.  Had it put him at 270, NBC and Fox wouldn't have called it.  Rather, they would have done what CBS and ABC did, which was call Nevada instead and then wait for OH the following morning.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Pennsylvania 2000 on: September 29, 2013, 09:41:35 pm
Ridge would've carried PA.
I think you overrate that effect.  Bush was leading the ticket.  People vote for President.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: If Election 1976 was two weeks longer, does Ford win? on: September 29, 2013, 09:40:27 pm
I was in a college poli sci class in the fall of 76 and the course was devoted to the presidential race. The class consensus (as well as some pollsters) was that Ford would have won if the election were three days earlier. He peaked at the end of the week before the election and Carter had a bit of a rebound at the start of election week. Ah for a German Sunday election ...
Good point since the challenger usually gets the last little bump from the "undecided" voters in the last day or so.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Florida starts leaning Democrat, what next for GOP? on: September 28, 2013, 11:01:00 pm
Then the GOP is going to have to capitalize on its chance to win the midwest, which has been there for the pickings for a decade now because if FL leans democratic, then it's near impossible for the GOP (at this time) to reach 270 w/o several midwestern states.  Unfortunately, with the state of MI getting poorer by the minute, it's near out of reach now for the GOP.  MN should have been breeding ground for the GOP, but they can't win there either and the democrats are now stronger statewide. 

The thing about FL that is still in the GOP's favor is that the statewide democratic party doesn't appear to be very organized and strong.  The statewide GOP is in better shape.  Rick Scott for example, may actually win a second term next year due to the democrats' statewide problems.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / If Election 1976 was two weeks longer, does Ford win? on: September 28, 2013, 10:27:59 pm
President Ford trailed by 33 points after the DNC and chipped away at Jimmy Carter's lead all throughout the summer and into the fall.  The Eastern Europe comment during one of the debates halted the president's momentum, but then he closed bigtime in the final weeks.  I believe I read that many polls actually had the candidates dead even in the popular vote going into Election Day. 

Clearly, Ford appeared to have the momentum in the final few weeks and the election race came down to close margins (won by Carter) in OH, WI, MS, HI, PA and NY. 

Had the race lasted two more weeks, do you think Carter hangs on, expands his margin or does Ford complete one of the largest political rallies in American history given the polling margins subsequent to the DNC?

On a sidenote, Ford's defeat in NY was largely due to a relatively poor showing in the suburbs of Long Island (where I'm from).  Typically, Nassau and Suffolk county provided the GOP in the high 50% range (near 60%) in terms of the vote until the island changed in the 90s, but Carter got 47%.
161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO 2014 on: September 20, 2013, 07:59:38 am
My two assumptions with CO as of now:

1) The state GOP is completely inept and in ruins internally
2) Until the GOP can win a major statewide race there, I'm assuming they'll keep losing.

Hickenlooper will win, possibly by 10 points when all is said and done.
162  Election Archive / 2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ-Monmouth: Christie-lead drops to 20, as Democrats come home to Buono on: September 18, 2013, 08:21:59 am
My guess at the beginning of the year was 57-42% as many democrats will come home in the end.  We'll see if I'm right.
163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Executive- Suozzi leads Mangano by one on: September 18, 2013, 07:33:16 am
Suozzi isn't bad.  Local democrats will do well with moderate republicans here on LI as they have over the past 15-20 years.
164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kasas governor race 2014 on: September 18, 2013, 07:32:06 am
Gubernatorial races are far more likely to elect the minority party.  KS has elected democratic governors in years where there was a split between the moderate/conservative GOP wings.  The last time that happened was 2002.  The question will be if there is any "inward" pressure on Brownback from conservatives or the dwindling moderate wing of the GOP, which would favor a moderate democrat in the general election.

If Brownback sees that kind of split, he could be in some trouble. 
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Safe Republican States on: September 06, 2013, 07:24:39 am
It's amazing how times have changed.  Look back at the map from the 70s and late 80s.  It seems like the GOP had a lock on the map.  Now, the number of EVs in their backpocket at the start of any race is likely less than 100. 

At this point, MS, AL and TN should probably be on the list too.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why Oregon is a swing state on: August 10, 2013, 01:43:43 pm
It's not a swing state without a third party candidate siphoning democratic support.  Bush's performance in 2004 was likely due to incumbency and the fact that 2000 was very tight.  He was able to draw out a lot of conservative support downstate.

Keep this in mind and I posed this question in another thread.  It's been since 2002 (Gordon Smith) since the GOP has won ANY statewide race there, which is pathetic.  The state party is all but dead.  The cupboard is bare and in states like CO, it's the same thing.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where should the DNC/RNC be held at in 2016? on: August 10, 2013, 01:38:50 pm
Atlanta, GA
Phoenix, AZ
Miami or Orlando, FL
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Income, education, and Generation Y on: August 07, 2013, 09:07:26 am
What one wants or thinks he/she deserves or should/shouldn't have to do are two different things.  This thread is a good example of how some people just refuse to see how the world has changed.  You're not competing only with your next door neighbor for a job any longer.  Now, you're competing with everyone around the globe, including those in India/China who will be happy to do your job for a fraction of the costs, no benefits, work longer days and not be subject to the same level of regulation. 

We live in a nation where we value $$$ first and everything else second. That's business unfortunately.  If a company can outsource half their jobs to India and save the shareholders millions, that's precisely what they're expected to do.  It's all about the shareholders, bondholders, business owners and those that bring in revenue.  Most others are "G&A costs" that bring little to no value and simply "use cash" in their respective companies.

Take a basic economics course.  It really isn't that hard.  The supply of global labor is > demand.  Technology has naturally eliminated jobs.  Americans' cost of living is very high and we demand more for our work.  Why would most companies (if they have the capability of outsourcing) want to keep their jobs here?

When the supply of labor > demand for labor, wages/salaries remain stagnant or fall, hours demanded by employers rise employer power rises, employee power falls and ultimately, more people are going to have a tougher time entering the job market, staying in it and remaining in the middle class.

It's not that hard.  Unfortunately, some of you still listen to politicians who remain in office by breeding off people who can't add 1+1 and see the writing on the wall.  If a politician EVER stated anything that I just did (and you notice how none ever have despite the evidence to the contrary), they would be run out of office faster than a racehorse.  People do NOT like hearing the truth until they actually see it and it blows up in their faces (i.e. for example, people overleveraging themselves, then watching the housing market crash and many losing their house).

Gen Y is at a competitive disadvantage in the global market.  They will be and are being REQUIRED to work harder to "make it".  Whether or not they WANT TO, or whether they feel like they SHOULD HAVE TO or not, is completely and utterly irrelevant in the scheme of how businesses operate, how corporate america sees it or how the global economy works, where the playing field has been leveled in a hurry.  After WW II, we were the only man left standing.  Now, globalization evened the playing field and put the US and its workers at a competitive disadvantage cost-wise and many are and will feel the blow from it.
So, for those
169  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Udall ahead of all Republicans on: August 06, 2013, 07:30:29 pm
If Udall is at 50/33 in terms of favorable/unfavorable, that's a pretty strong spread, particularly in a state where neither party is at a distinct advantage.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Montana Going to the Right: Some Evidence on: August 06, 2013, 07:21:17 pm
MT leans republican at the presidential level, but similar to the Dakotas, it tends to elect democrat s to Congress. 

171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Arizona: Only a matter of time, but how much time? on: August 05, 2013, 10:11:03 pm
Again, it's not just the hispanic inflow.  Watch the number of retirees and even young voters that are moving to AZ.  That may help the democrats more in the end.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Poll: 'Yes' on Weed, Crist Over Scott, Split on Gay Marriage on: August 05, 2013, 10:04:39 pm
It's really amazing how many people in this country (of course those age 18-30) who support legalization of drugs.  It's scary.  Find another hobby for god sakes. 

As for gay marriage, right now it's banned in FL, but with many northeastern transplants heading there and the young population growing, I could see it just being a matter of time; I would support that. 

173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there? on: August 05, 2013, 10:01:08 pm
It's been a fools gold state now for better than a decade.  Partially due to Nader's strong showing in 2000, Bush carried almost every county in MN and lost by just 2.5 points.  Then four years later, he was competitive again, but lost.  The Republicans always seemed a bit stronger statewide than nationally and they've elected several GOP governors and Senators over democrats.  Recently however, the democrats have gotten stronger.  Dayton has improved during his first term and looks to be on his way to a second term.  Klobuchar looks like she may have a job for life and it's looking likely that Al Franken (of all people) will win a second term.  So, the Republicans lost the statehouse to the democrats and now, both Senate seats.  I'm not sure who controls the state legislature, but I believe the democrats have gained strength.  Oh yes, Barack Obama re-strengthened the democratic margin at the presidential level over the last two election rounds.

MN seems like it's a very "white" state, which one would think helps the Republicans, but it hasn't worked out.  Any opinions?

174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official New England 2014 Megathread on: August 05, 2013, 09:55:09 pm
The NH GOP is a mess and Kelly Ayotte is on her way out too after a single term.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Income, education, and Generation Y on: August 05, 2013, 09:51:40 pm
Generation Y is highly "entitled", hates rules/regulations/authority and doesn't like taking responsibility for anything.  Their work-ethic as a whole is horrendous.  Plus, the democrats have successfully used the gay marriage issue and the eight years under George Bush against the GOP. 

The irony of the entitlement of the Millenials, is that they are well on their way to becoming a "Lost Generation" with globalization and technology killing their chances at building careers.  Most aren't smart enough to see the writing on the wall.

1) Technology has eliminated the need for more jobs
2) It's just cheaper to offshore to India and China
3) Gen Y tends to run for the hills when the going gets tough.  American companies do not like these kids; they tend to stay at jobs very short times
4) In terms of a college education, many of these kids do not take their education seriously.  They go and drink, saying "it's college", but they fail to realize that times have changed and that doesn't cut it anymore.  Times have changed.  The supply of global labor > demand.  Companies want people more dedicated who will work 12-14 hour days and for less pay, not for kids who will complain and demand higher salaries/wages
5) The success of the Millenials is largely going to be tied to mom/dad.  If they did okay, you'll have a chance as a Gen Yr.  If you grew up in a struggling or broken family, the odds are against you. As we clearly see, we're becoming as "have vs. have not society" and it's more likely to be a "have not".  More people are falling out of the middle class rather than getting into it or reaching elite status. 
6) This generation has no sense of personal responsibility and no sense of pride or financial planning. They get what they want, when they want it and are told "they're great" to appease them.  Mom/dad aren't parents anymore.  Now, the kids control the households as mom/dad have become figureheads in many households and the number of "stable" households decline.
7) The democratic party suits the personality of this generation far better and politicians only care about getting re-elected.  They don't throw the truth in anyone's face because that will get them thrown out. Plus, socially, the GOP is back in the 80s, which isn't going to attract the Millenials.

Oh yes, I'm 29, a Millenial and I see what a crapfest the generation as a whole is.  I'd say that 2 out of 3 in this generation have absolutely no chance to succeed financially.  Rather, most seem to be content on running themselves into the ground financially, then crying poverty and eventually starting a revolution when the unsustainability finally ends.
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