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101
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Michele Bachmann win reelection to the House?
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on: January 05, 2012, 04:51:54 pm
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What about running for the US Senate in 2014 against Stuart Smalley(D-MN)? Other potential Republican challengers against Franken ie Pawlenty,Coleman,and Paulsen represent the Romney wing of the Republican party-The Arne Carlson wing. Bachmann represents the Santorum wing of the Republican Party-Rod Grams wing. Bachmann,Pawlenty,and Paulsen seek the Republican nomination for the US Senate in 2014 against Franken(running against Franken in 2014 is much easier than running against Klobuchar in 2012). Bachmann wins the Republican nomination due to strong backing of the tea party, Pawlenty and Paulsen split the Carlson wing of the Republican party. A Bachmann-R vs Franken-D race will be worth watching.
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102
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would Santorum be doing better if he hadn't lost to Casey in 06?
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on: December 25, 2011, 11:16:32 pm
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Santorum-R did not only lose to Casey-D but he lost to Casey-D by nearly a 20 percent margin. Casey-D is the son of a popular former political figure in PA and has won Statewide Elections in PA on his own right. Santorum-R became US Senator in 1994 GOP wave, won re-election due to mediocre DEM opposition. Santorum-R would have been in a Tossup race against Casey-D. 2006 was a DEM wave election and Santorums extreme comments lead to his landslide defeat. Had Santorum not lost to Casey in 06, he'd be the Republican nominee for President in 2008 instead of McCain. Santorum would have lost to Obama by a wider margin.
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104
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: State by state redistricting results?
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on: December 25, 2011, 12:38:57 am
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AZ=+1D CA=+6D/-6R CO=+1D/-1R FL=+1D/+1R GA=-1D/+2R IL=+5D/-6R IN=-1D/+1R IA=-1D LA=-1R MD=+1D/-1R MA=-1D MI=-1D MO=-1D NV=+1D NJ=-1D NY=-2R NC=-4D/+4R OH=-1D/-1R PA=-1D SC=+1R TX=+2D/+2R UT=+1R WA=+1D +6D/-6R Democratic Takeover AZ-1,CO-3,FL-22,MN-8,NV-3,NH-2,NY-9,NY-25,OH-6,TX-27,and WI-7=+17D Republican Takeover AR-4,IN-2,OK-2= +14D/-14R
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105
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
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on: December 17, 2011, 01:51:37 am
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In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.
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106
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Christine O'Donnell endorses Mitt Romney
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on: December 13, 2011, 09:57:48 pm
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Her endorsement of Romney has more to do with family values. Gingrich is a serial adulterer. Romney is a family man. On social issues that matter to O'Donelll ie (outlawing abortion/gay rights) Romney if he ran for US Senator or Governor in Utah instead of Massachusetts would have campaigned as a pro life/anti gay marriage Republican.
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108
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What must Republicans do to get a 60 seat+ majority in the Senate in 2012?
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on: December 13, 2011, 09:28:22 pm
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Brown(R-MA) and Heller(R-NV) need to get re-elected. Republicans need to win 13 vulnerable Democratic US Senate Seats up for grabs in 2012. Berg(R-ND) Bruning(R-NE) Rehberg(R-MT) Akin or Steelman(R-MO) Allen(R-VA) Thompson or Neumann (R-WI) Mack(R-FL) Wilson or Sanchez (R-NM) Mandel(R-OH) Lingle(R-HI) Hoekstra(R-MI) That is only 11 vulnerable Dem seats. Need to win 2 more seats. VT,DE,RI,MD,NY,CA,WA,MN,PA,NJ,WV,and CT are in safe or likely Democratic favored column.
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109
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mitt Romney will be the Republican Nominee
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on: December 12, 2011, 11:20:38 pm
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In a general election matchup between Obama-D vs. Romney-R, Which Kerry 2004 state other than NH is Romney likely to win. MI,PA,and WI are Slight Lean Obama States. Obama-D also wins IA and NM, states Gore narrowly won in 2000 but narrowly went for Bush in 2004. The Tossup states are CO,FL,NV,NC,OH,and VA. Obama wins CO,NV plus either NC,OH,or VA. In a general election matchup between Obama-D vs Gingrich-R, it is highly unlikely that any Gore 2000 and or Kerry 2004 State is likely to go to Gingrich. Gingrich wins all of the McCain states plus IN,FL,NC,OH,and VA. He ends up with 266ev.
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112
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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: who will win the 2016 Democratic nomination?
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on: December 07, 2011, 10:44:45 pm
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Current or Former US Senators that are likely 2016 Democratic Presidential candidates. Former- Feingold(WI), the Bill Bradley of the 2016 Presidential Race. Popular with the grassroots but not with the establishment. Current- Warren(MA)- assuming she unseats Brown in 2012. will become a top tier candidate or drafted after the 2014 midterm elections. Warren needs to help Democratic Incumbent US Senators likely to face re-election campaigns in 2014, Begich-AK,Udall-CO,Harkin-IA,Landrieu-LA,Democratic Nominee for the Open MI Seat, Franken-MN,Baucus-MT,Shaheen-NH,Democratic Nominee for Open NJ seat, Hagan-NC, and Johnson-SD win in 2014 as well as the Democratic nominee against McConnell in KY, Chambliss in GA, and Cornyn in TX. Klobuchar(MN),Gillibrand(NY) don't add anything to the ticket other than the fact they are intelligent attractive women. Brown(OH)-Leading candidate for VP if Democrats nominate Warren-MA or Cuomo-NY.or Warner-VA Warner(VA)-favorite among the establishment or media, charismatic former Governor/current US Senator from a key battleground state. Wealthy businessman. Former or Current Governors Former- O'Malley(MD)- the Democratic version of Pawlenty. Campaign will before it begins, more likely to succeed Mikulski in the US Senate in 2016. Patrick(MA)- more likely to run for Warren's vacant US Senate seat in 2018 assuming he does not succeed Kerry in 2014. Schweitzer(MT), Lynch(NH) are populist Governors from small states. candidacy is unlikely to gain any traction. Current- Hickenlooper(CO)-similar situation as O'Malley, Cuomo(NY)- front runner. along with Warren-assuming she gets elected to the US Senate.
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113
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Vosem's Senate Prediction
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on: December 07, 2011, 07:09:43 pm
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Scott Brown (R-MA) average poll numbers against Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is at 44% while Warren is at 42%. That leaves the 14% undecided voters. Brown gets 1/3 of the undecided voters. Warren gets 1/2 of the undecided voters. Warren-D wins by a 49-48,50-48,51-48 margin. The undecided voters are unlikely going to vote for Brown but they are waiting to see how Warren performs until they commit to her.
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115
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Vosem's Senate Prediction
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on: December 06, 2011, 10:59:54 pm
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Vulnerable Republican held US Senate seats up in 2012 are MA(Brown-R) and NV(Heller). Brown(R-MA),represents one of the most bluest states in the nation. He is more conservative than the ME US Senators (Snowe-R and Collins-R). His Democratic opponent-Warren-D,is a first time candidate, but is a national celebrity. Progressives from every state love Warren. 2012 MA US Senate race is going to be like the 2008 MN US Senate race (Coleman-R vs Franken-D). Heller(R-NV), is a freshman US Senator from a purplish blue state. He is your average Conservative Republican. His Democratic opponent, Berkley-D, is a longtime US House member from the Las Vegas metro area. Berkley is a traditional Liberal Democrat. In MA, it would take Warren, to make gaffes in the debate or campaign trail late Sept/mid Oct 2012 for Brown to win. In NV, for Heller to win, he needs Romney to be the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, Berkley needs Gingrich to be the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee. Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats up for grabs in 2012 are ND(OPEN-Conrad-D),NE(Nelson-D),MT(Tester-D),MO(McCaskill-D),and WI(OPEN-Kohl-D). ND is a Republican pickup. Red State, General Election matchup is between a generic DEM (Heitkamp-D) vs a generic REP (Berg-R). NE is a Republican pickup. Red State, mediocre Democratic incumbent. If Republican nominee is Heineman, Nelson loses by a double digit margin, if it's Bruning, Nelson loses by a high single digit margin, if it's Stenberg, Nelson loses by a narrow margin. MT is a Tossup. MT is a Red State, but Democratic incumbent Tester is personally likable. Republican challenger Rehberg is Conrad Burns Part 2. MO is a Tossup. Purplish Red State, Democratic incumbent McCaskill is personally likable. Republican challenger Akin or Steelman are traditional right wingers. WI depends on who the Republican nominee is. If its Thompson, Republican pickup. Moderate Republican vs Liberal Democrat. If its Neumann or Fitzgerald, Tossup but Democratic lean. Democratic nominee Baldwin is more liberal than Kohl and Feingold. Neumann and Fitzgerald are right wingers. Either Neumann or Fitzgerald will win the Republican primary.
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122
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Senate seats could Democrats win?
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on: June 26, 2011, 03:24:44 pm
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Erm, Democrats can very much gain Massachusetts and Nevada while losing Montana or Missouri. It really is possible to gain and lose seats in the same election. Voters from all states don't all participate in groupthink, although the results from recent elections would make you think so. 2006 DEM wave- The vulnerable DEM seats were in NJ,MD,and MN- all are in Democratic states. MN-Klobuchar was an impressive candidate/Mark Kennedy turned out to be a disaster. NJ votes Democratic at the Presidential or Senate Level. MD- Cardin is a perfect fit for state. Democrats avoid tough opposition in FL,MI,NE,and WA. 2008 DEM wave. The vulnerable DEM seats were LA and possibly NJ. in LA- Landrieu-D was able to win re-election in a red state trending more Republican against a top tier GOP challenger. Democrats avoided tough opposition in AR,IA,MT and SD. 2010 GOP wave. The vulnerable GOP seats were FL,KY,LA,MO,NH,NC,and OH. In states like LA,NH,NC,and OH- Dems candidates were mediocre. in FL- lot of Dems were willing to support Christ-I. KY and MO are red states. 2012 GOP wave. NV is a traditional swing state- mediocre GOP incumbent vs a top tier DEM challenger. MA is a blue state but with a fairly popular GOP incumbent vs Generic DEM challenger.
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