CA- Jerry Brown(D)
TX- Kay Bailey Hutchinson(R)
NY- Andrew Cuomo or Tom Suozzi (D)
FL- Bill McCollum (R)
IL- Pat Quinn (D)
PA- Jim Gerlach (R)
OH- Ted Strickland (D)
MI- Mike Cox (R)

Freshman Democrats who lost in 1994.
1)Karan English- AZ-6 elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by a 53-41. due to the help of popular conservative icon Barry Goldwater. Lost to JD Hayworth. Hayworth lost in 2006 Democratic wave.
2)Dan Hamburg- CA-1 elected in 1992 unseating first term Republican Congressman Frank Riggs by a 48-45 percent margin. Hamburg lost in a rematch to Riggs. Riggs won close re-election bid in 1996- and then decided to retire in 1998 rather than face a tough challenge against Mike Thompson- who now holds this seat.
3)Lynn Shenk- CA-49- elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by a 51-43. Lost in 1994 to Brian Bilbray. Democrats won seat back in 2000- Now CA-53 is Safe Democratic District.
4)Don Johnson- GA-10 elected in 1992 by a 54-46 percent margin. Lost in a landslide to Charlie Norwood. District is now a safe Republican District.
5)Tom Barlow- KY-1 elected in 1992 with 60% of the popular vote. Loss was a shocker. District is now safe Republican.
6)Herb Klien- NJ-8 elected in 1992 by a 47-41 percent of a popular vote in a traditional Democratic District. Lost in 1994 to Bill Martini. Democrats won seat back in 1996.
7)David Mann- OH-1 elected in 1992 by a 51% margin against 3 Independents.  Democrats won seat back in 2008.
8)Ted Strickland- OH-6- electd in 1992 by a 51-49 percent margin unseating a Republican incumbent. lost in 1994 to a nutjob-Frank Cremeans.. won back in 1996 elected Governor in 2006.
9)Eric Fingerhut. OH-19 elected in 1992 by a 52-47 percent margin. lost in 1994 to Steve LaTourette - a moderate Republican in the mold of George Voinovich.
10)Marjorie Margolies Mezinksy-PA-13 elected in 1992 by a 50-50 margin over Jon Fox in a open seat. Lost in 1994 rematch. Democrats won seat back in 1998. Fox lost in a rematch to Joe Hoeffell. Now safe Democratic District.
11)Karan Shephard- UT-2 won in 1992 by a 51-47 percent margin. Lost in 1994 in a rematch to Enid Greene. Democrats won seat back in 2000. now held by Jim Matheson. Greene retired in 1996 due to scandals and Merrill Cook turned out to be a nutjob.
12)Leslie Byrne- VA-11 elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by 50-45 percent margin. Lost in 1994 GOP revolution to Moderate Republican Tom Davis. Democrats won seat back in 2008 when Davis retired.
13)Maria Cantwell- WA-1- elected in 1992 by a 55-42 percent margin. Lost in 1994 to Rick White. Democrats won WA-1 back in 1998 (Jay Inslee). Cantwell made a comeback got elected to the US Senate defeating Slade Gorton.
14)Jay Inslee- WA-4 elected in a traditional Republican district in 1992 by a 51-49 percent margin. Lost in a rematch to Doc Hastings. Inslee made a comeback getting elected to the US House in 1998 from a neighboring Congressional District.
15) Mike Kriedler-WA-9 elected in a newly created Swing District in 1992 by a 52-43 percent margin.  Lost in 1994 wave to Randy Tate. Democrats won seat back in 1996.
16) Peter Barca- WI-1 elected in Special Election. lost in rematch to Mark Neuman.

Looking at the 2008 Democratic Freshmans.
1)AL-2 Bobby Bright is a popular Mayor of Montgomery County which is located in AL-2. He is a conservative Democrat. Republicans had a divisive primary.  
2)AL-5 is a Conservative Democratic District- It was represented by Bud Cramer.
3)AZ-1- (Ann Kirkpatrick) won a open seat in a bellwether District. Kirkpatrick is going to face a tough race but is favored to win. (Gifford,Arcuri)
4)CO-4- Betsey Markey unseated a controversial Republican incumbent in a traditional Republican District.  Markey has to be on the vulnerable list.
5)CT-4- District is a safe Democratic District. Himes benifited from Obama coattails. Without Shays. District is Himes to lose.
6)FL-8- Bellwether District. Grayson benifited from Obama coattails. In 2010. Charlie Crist and Bill McCollum who represent FL-8 is now on the ballot. A Charlie Crist type Republican can unseat Grayson.
7)FL-24- Suzanne Kozmas- similar to CO-4 Markey. unseated a controversial Republican incumbent in a district that was suppose to be leaning Republican. but can lose in 2010 to a Charlie Crist type Republican.
8)ID-1- Walt Minnick is a Conservative Democrat unseated a weak Republican incumbent.
9)IL-11- Debbie Halverson- elected in open seat. IL-11 is a swing District but Republican bench in IL is weak especially in IL-11.
10)MD-1- Frank Kravotil benifited from a divisive Republican primary- Kravotil is popular in Eastern Shore MD.
11)MI-7- Mark Schauer defeated a Conservative Republican incumbent in a swing District. Schauer will face a tough race but will win re-election.
12)MI-9- Gary Peters- defeated a weak GOP incumbent in District trending Democratic. Peters is pretty safe
13)NV-3- Dina Titus defeated an accidential Republican congressman in Obama Wave. Jon Porter won in 2002 against a scandal plague incumbent. Seat is now safe for a Democrat.
14)NJ-3- Jon Adler won a bellwether Distirict. Will face a tough race in 2010 but is favored to win.
15)NM-1- Martin Heinrich-open seat in Democratic leaning District. Safe.
16)NM-2- Harry Teague- open  seat in Republican leaning District. Republicans have a top tier recruit.
17)NM-3- Ben Lujan- open seat in safe Democratic District.- Safe.
18)NY-13- Mike McMahon is popular in Staten Island. Safe.
19)NY-20- Murphy narrowly won in a special election. benifit from Schumer/Gillibrand coattails.
20)NY-21- Paul Tonko- won an open seat in safe Democratic District. Safe.
21)NY-25- Dan Maffie- open seat in a Democratic leaning District. Safe.
22)NY-29- Eric Massa- unseated a controversial incumbent in a Republican leaning District. NY-GOP is weak.
23)NC-8- Larry Kisell- unseated a weak Republican incumbent in a swing District. NC-8 is Democratic at the local level. making Kissell safe.
24) OH-1- Steve Driehaus- unseated Republican incumbent Steve Chabot. Chabot is running again in 2010. OH-1 can competitive but Driehaus has close ties to OH-1.
25)OH-15- Mary Jo Kilroy won an open seat in swing District with 45% of the popular vote. Kilroy will likely lose in 2010.
26)OH-16- John Boccieri- won an open seat in swing District. Boccieri is popular in OH-16.
27)PA-3- Kathy Dahlkemper unseated a Republican incumbent in swing District. Dahlkemper- is a Jason Altmire type Democrat.
28)VA-2- Glenn Nye- unseated a weak Republican incumbent. Nye is a moderate Democrat in a pro military District.
29)VA-5- Tom Perriello unseated a controversial Republican Incumbent in a Republican leaning Congressional District. Perriello is too liberal for voters in VA-5.
30)VA-11- Gerry Connolly open seat in Democratic leaning District. Safe.

 

Looking at all the 2008 Democratic Freshmans.
The Alabama US Reps- Bobby Bright(AL-2) and Parker Griffith(AL-5) are in solid Red Districts- but Bright and Griffith are Gene Taylor like Conservative Democrats. The only way Bright or Griffith lose is if 2010 is a 1994 like GOP year. Since 2010 will be like 1998 or 2002- Bright and Griffith will hold on.
Ann Kirkpatrick- AZ-1 represents a competitive District. However her 17 point margin victory had to do with her Republican opponent being a Rightwing nutjob and corruption scandals involving the outgoing GOP incumbent Rick Renzi.  If Republicans nominate a JD Hayworth type Republican then Kirkpatrick wins. If Republicans nominate a Jeff Flake type Republican then Kirkpatrick can lose if 2010 is another 1994.
Betsey Markey-CO-4 represents a traditional Republican District- (Allard,Schaffer,Musgrave). Markey's double digit victory over Musgrave had more to do with Musgrave rightwing extremism. A Scott McInnis type Republican can make CO-4 competitive or Republican pickup- assuming 2010 is another 1994. A Tancredo/Musgrave type Republican makes CO-4 a Safe Democratic District.
Jim Himes- CT-4 represents a safe Democratic District.
Grayson-FL-8 represents a bellwether District.  A Charlie Crist type Republican can defeat Grayson.
Same goes for Suzanne Kozmas FL-24. - A Charlie Crist type Republican can defeat Kozmas but if Republicans nominate a Bill McCollum/Tom Feeney type Republican- then the Democratic incumbent will hold on.
Walt Minnick ID-4 is a Conservative Democrat in a pro Republican District. It will take a 1994 like wave for Minnick to lose. If Republicans nominate a wackjob like Sali or another Chenoweth- Minnick wins. If Republicans nominate another Butch Otter, then Minnick can lose.
Debbie Halverson-IL-11 represents a swing District trending Democratic. The IL-GOP party is weak. Same goes for Bill Foster IL-14.
Frank Kravotil- MD-1 is popular in the Eastern Shore Area.
The Michigan Democratic Freshmans. Schauer-MI-7 represents a swing Districts- can lose or face a tough race if Republicans nominate a moderate like Joe Schwartz but a Conservative Republican like Tim Walberg will be a Safe Democratic. Peter-MI-9 represents a Districts becoming increasing a safe Democratic District.
Travis Childers-MS-1 is a Conservative Democrat in a Republican District. Childers lose will depend on whether or not 2010 is another 1994.
Titus-NV-3 represents a district becoming a safe Democratic District.
John Adler-NJ-3 is vulnerable due to the fact he represents a Bellwether District. This race will be too close to call. Adler is safe if Republicans nominate a rightwing Conservative.
Regarding the NM Reps- Heinrich and Lujan are safe. Teague is vulnerable due to the fact his Republican opponent is former US Rep Steven Pearce. NM-2 will be a tossup in 2010.
Regarding the NY Freshmans. McMahon-NY-13,Maffei-NY-25 are safe. Murphy-NY-20 and Massa-NY-29 are vunerable but favored to win re-election.
Kissell-NC-8 is safe.
Regarding the OH Democratic Freshmans. Driehaus-OH-1 is vulnerable because he is facing a rematch against former US Rep Steve Chabot. If 2010 is another 1994- Driehaus can lose. Kilroy OH-15 is vulnerable because she underperformed- She won an open seat election with less than 50% of the popular vote and a two third party challengers getting a total of 10%. Boccieri-OH-16 is safe.
Dahlkemper-PA-3 represents a swing District- She is a perfect fit for voters in PA-3.
Regarding the VA US Reps. Nye-VA-2 and Connolly-VA-11 are safe. Nye-VA-2 military/foreign policy background is perfect fit for VA-2 and Connolly-VA-11 represents an increasingly safe Democratic District.  Perriello-VA-5 is vulnerable because of his narrow victory due to Obama/Warner coattails. Perriello-VA-5 is too liberal for voters in VA-5.

  

In 1998- Jay Johnson-WI-8 who was a first term Democratic US Senator from a traditional Republican congressional district lost re-election.
In 1996- Mike Ward-KY-3- weak Democratic freshman incumbent, Harold Volkmer-MO-9 Senior US House Member whose district was trending Republican and Bill Orton-UT-3 who represented the most Republican district in the nation.
In 1994 GOP wave. English-AZ-6,Hamburg-CA-1,Schenk-CA-49,Johnson-GA-10,Barlow-KY-1,Klien-NJ-8,Mann-OH-1,Strickland-OH-6,Fingerhut-OH-19,Mezinsky-PA-13,Shephard-UT-2,Byrne-VA-11,Cantwell-WA-1,Inslee-WA-4,Kriedler-WA-9,and Barca-WA-1 were freshman Democrats.
In 2010- The weakest freshman Democrat is Perriello-VA-5- his district is pretty conservative except for the College Communities in Lynchburg. and he is not got going to benifit from a high Obama Democratic  turnout which gave him a narrow victory over Virgil Goode.
Red state Freshman Democratic US Reps like Bright-AL-2,Griffith-AL-5,Minnick-ID-1,and Kravotil-MD-1,Childers-MS-1 are popular in their districts at a local level. An anti Democratic wave will cause their seats to lose. Grayson-FL benifited from Obama coattials. In 2010- Charlie Crist- who is popular in FL-8 and McColloum-who represented FL-8 while in Congress is going to be on the ballot.

In 2008- The Democratic US House Members who lost re-election were freshman with the exception of Jefferson-LA. Mahoney-FL16 was narrowly elected in 2006 due to the Mark Foley scandal. Mahoney's loss had to do with a sex scandal. Nancy Boyda-KS-2 election victory in 2006 was a surprise. Boyda made a foolish decision not to recieve any help from the DCCC. Cazayoux-LA-6 won a special election in 2008 but lost in 2008 general election due to a Democratic third party candidate. Lampson-TX-22 who won Tom Delay's old US House seat in 2006 represented a safe Republican District.
In 2004- The Democratic US House Incumbents who lost re-election were in TX-due to Delaymandering. Sandlin,Lampson,Frost,and Stenholm plus Hill-IN which was a shocker.
In 2002- The Democratic US House Incumbents who lost re-election were Thurman-FL-5- and Luther-MN-2 redistricting. Maloney-CT-5,Phelps-IL-19,and Shows-MS-4 were placed in Incumbency vs Incumbency districts.
In 2000- The two Democratic US House incumbents that lost were Gedjenson-CT-2 and Minge-MN-2 both losses were shockers.

Looking at 2010. we have 6 open Republican US Senate seats.
FL,KS,KY,MO,NH,and OH.  Republicans will hold onto FL,KS,and KY. NH and OH are tossup but Democratic leaning. and MO is a Democratic pickup. The only Republican incumbent US Senator facing re-election that is vulnerable to defeat is Burr-NC.
On the Democratic side- we have 2 open seats- DE and IL. DE will only be competitive if Castle-R runs otherwise- Beau Biden is a shoe in. Democrats are favored to hold on to IL. The vulnerable Democratic seats are in AR-Lincoln,CO-Bennett,CT-Dodd,NV-Reid,NY-Gillibrand,and PA-Specter.  AR has a lot of anti Obama voters, but Republican party in AR is weak- Lincoln should hold on. CO- Bennett is an appointed US Senator in a swing state with low name recognition. Republicans don't have any top tier challengers.  CT- Dodd has recieved bad publicity in 2008-2009- he can recover his image. NV-Reid is unpopular in NV due to his role as Senate Majority leader. Republicans don't have any top tier challengers. Gillibrand is safe due to weak Republican party in NY. In PA- the Republican nominee Pat Toomey is too conservative for voters in the Philidelphia Suburbs.  If any Democratic US Senate seat were to flip I would say CO because of Bennett lack of name recognition and incumbent advantage and CO is a purple state. 

In pro Republican US Senate Years which Democrats lost seats in the US Senate-(1994,1996,2002,and 2004).
1994- When Democrats lost majority control of the US Senate. 6 Democratic US Senators retired, (Deconcini-AZ,Mitchell-ME,Reigle-MI,Metzenbaum-OH,Boren-OK,and Gore Seat(TN)-caretaker Harlan Matthews decided not to run for re-election. All six of those seats went Republican. OK and TN were Republican states or trending Republican. In AZ,OH,and ME- The Republican candidates were much stronger than the Democratic candidates. In MI- Abraham benifited from Engler's coattails, and the 94 GOP wave. Two Democratic Incumbents lost re-election. Harris Wofford-PA- who was running for a full first term and Jim Sasser-TN a senior Democratic US Senator- chair of Budget committee who lost to a wealthy doctor by a double digit margin. Robb-VA survived a tough re-election due to a third party challenge from Marshall Coleman.
1996- 8 Democratic US Senators retired. 3 out of the 8 open Democratic seats went Republican. AL-Heflin,AR-Pryor,and NE-Exon,. AL was expected to go Republican but AR and NE were shockers. Only one US Senator lost re-election- Pressler R-SD lost to Tim Johnson.
2002- Republicans unseated two Democratic Incumbents- Max Cleland-GA- which had to do with the obscene campaign ad and GA undergoing a Republican makeover. and Jean Carnahan-MO who was appointed to the seat her husband won after his death. Republican also won Wellstone-MN Senate seat.
2004 [5 Democratic US Senators from the South retired. Graham-FL,Miller-GA,Breaux-LA,Edwards-NC,and Hollings-SC. Republicans won all five of these open seats. annd unseated Tom Daschle of SD. Democrats won open GOP seats in ILand CO.

New Hampshire has underwent a Democratic Makeover since 2006.
During the 1980's and 1990's Republicans controlled the Governorship and Both US Senate Seats. (Humphery/Rudman),(Smith/Gregg),(Sununu,Gregg,Merrill),. and the two US House Seats were held by Republicans from 1994-2006. (Zelliff,Bass)(Sununu,Bass)and (Bradley,Bass).
In 2004- Republicans lost the Governorship (Craig Benson lost re-election to John Lynch).
In 2006- Both US House Republicans- Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass lost re-election.
In 2008- Sununu lost his US Senate Seat to Jeanne Shaheen.
In 2010- Gregg is retiring. Paul Hodes- NH-2 US Rep is the leading Democratic Candidate for Gregg's US Senate Seat. Republican Nominee Kelly Ayotte is an unknown quantity.

The GOP nominee is OH Rob Portman has close ties with George W. Bush. Bush 43 is more unpopular in OH than Obama and Strickland.  Regarding IL. The state leans Democratic in US Senate Races except in 1998- when Carol Mosely Braun was involved in scandals.

In 1994- Republicans won safe Democratic Districts such as
CA-1,CA-15,CA-49/53,IL-1,ME-1,NV-1,NH-2,NJ-8,NY-1,NC-4,OR-5,PA-13,VA-11,WA-1,WA-2,WA-3,and WA-9 and swing Districts now held by Democrats.
AZ-5/6, GA-8, ID-1,IL-11,IN-8,MN-1,MS-1,NC-2,OH-1,OH-6,OH-18,OK-2,and UT-2.

ID-1 was previously held by Steve Symms, Larry Craig and Helen Chenoweth.

This was only a matter of time. Arkansas has been moving right recently. I can't see them reelecting Lincoln if the Democrats image is tarnished on election night 2010.

The thing is, Arkansas loves their Democratic governor and other Democratic senator. It's something about Lincoln that they don't like.

Blanche Lincoln-AR problem is she does not have a base.  She does not have the charisma or oratory skills as her predecessor Dale Bumpers- and she is more moderate than Dale Bumpers. and Mark Pryor and his father and Mike Beebe are moderate Good Old Boys.

Delaware open, Bennet, and Reid are most in jeopardy of losing. If we lose those states, with the exception of 1 of those tossup republican races, I don't see us retaining 60 votes.

I doubt we lose DE unless Mike Castle is running. A Beau Biden vs Mike Castle race will be a pure tossup but Biden will come out ahead in the end.  DE seat is a Democratic favored seat.

Bennett (CO) will lose being an appointed US Senator from a Swing State with no name recognition.

Harry Reid (NV) and Chris Dodd(CT) vulnerabilty is based on how Democrats do nationally in 2010. Both will hold on because of their clout and seniority.

Lincoln(AR) will survive a tough re-election bid.

Democrats will hold on to IL-OPEN. and PA.
Gillibrand(NY) will win re-election.

Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH.

followed by KY,NC,and LA.

Republican Favored.
AL
AK
AZ
FL
GA
ID
IA
KS
OK
SC
SD
UT
Leans Republican-
LA
NC
Tossup
AR
CO
CT
DE-if Castle runs.
KY
NV
NH
OH
PA
Leans DEM
IL
MO
NY-B
Democratic Favored
CA
DE-if Castle does not run.
HI
IN
MD
NY
ND
OR
VT
WA
WI


Dems will pick up MO and hold on to IL,NY-B,and DE-assuming Castle does not run.
AR,CO,CT,KY,NV,NH,OH,and PA will depend on how things turn out nationally.
IF 2010 is a bad year for DEMS- expect DEMs to lose couple of those seats.

AR- anti Obama state- hurt Lincoln ie Anti Bush in 2006 hurting Chaffee.
CO- Tough primary challenge against Bennett-
CT- Dodd's scandal- national Republicans are going target him.
KY- Tossup GOP held seat.
NV- National Republicans are going to target Reid to embarrass DEMS.
NH- Hodes is a boring candidate- Ayotte- is doing better than expected. DEMS need to define Ayotte- portray her as a Conservative nutjob.
OH- Divisive Dem Primary may help Portman-R- Need to remind OH voters how close Portman was with Bush-43 economic policies.
PA- Divisive DEM Primary. Need to remind PA voters how conservative Toomey is.

I would put CO at lean Dem.  Bennet might be unknown and he might not even be the nominee after the Primary, but the shape of the GOP in the state is abysmal, I would say that is a lean.  Similar reason why I think Gillibrand is safe, the state GOP is a complete and utter joke.

I don't see Arkansas as being a toss up either.  While I agree that Bush hurt Chafee in RI and you could see Obama hurt Lincoln as well, few major differences.  First i think it will be very unlikely that Obama's numbers in Arkansas in 2010 will be as low as Bush's were in RI in 06 (25% approve, 74% disapprove).  Also at the state level Arkansas is still a very Democratic state.  On the state level Rhode Island is perhaps even more Democratic than it is on the national level (yes I know they have a GOP Gov, one of which who would have been toast if Chafee lost the Primary, but the State House and Senate are Democratic Supermajorites. 

In PA,  I just think the numbers in the Philly metro area will be too much for Toomey to overcome no matter if its Specter or Sestak

Lets just say that it will be impossible for any Democratic seat to flip Republican in 2010.

Since getting elected in 1992- Boxer(CA),Murray(WA) and Fiengold(WI) have been target by the Republicans in their 1998 and 2004 re-election cycle. yet the Democratic incumbents win handily over their GOP challengers. This election cycle Republicans have third tier candidates making Boxer(CA),Murray(WA),and Feingold(WI) safe in their re-election bids.

Blanche Lincoln (AR) is the only red state Southern US Senator facing re-election in 2010. Lincoln may not be likeable as Dale Bumpers or the Pryors(David or Mark) but she is hell alot better that her potential GOP opponents- who are a bunch of nutjobs.

Other US Senators facing re-election in 2010.
Chris Dodd(CT) is facing a tough re-election campaign the first time in his 30 year US Senate Career. The DSCC,DNC,Obama,Biden,Lieberman,the Clintons, will do everything to protect Dodd. Keeping Dodd in the US Senate will be the number 1 priority.

Dan Inouye(HI) is safe. probally running unopposed.
Evan Bayh(IN) is safe.
Barbara Mikulski (MD) is safe.
Harry Reid(NV) will face a tough race this election cycle. The DSCC, DNC, Obama,Biden,Clintons, will do everything to protect Reid.
Chuck Schumer(NY) is safe. running unopposed.
Byron Dorgan (ND) is safe. very popular in ND.
Ron Wyden (OR) is safe. running unopposed.
Patrick Leahy (VT) is safe. running unopposed.

Other Democratic US Senate seats.
Mike Bennett(CO) is lucky that a top tier GOP candidate like Bill Owens, Scott McInnis, is not challenging him otherwise- he would be in a similar situation as Jean Carnahan-MO- another appointed US Senator who lost in their bid for re-election.

Beau Biden(DE) is safe unless Mike Castle runs. in that case. VP Biden will do everything to make sure his former constituents in DE elect his son Beau.

Alexi Giannoulias (IL) is favored in General Election. President Obama will do everything to help his friend his his old US Senate Seat.

Kirsten Gillibrand(NY) is a shoe in due to weak GOP opposition and Schumer(NY's) coattails.

The Democrats will hold on to PA due to strong support in the Philadelphia Burbs region.

Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH. The Democrats have top tier candidates and GOP candidates in MO,and OH are unpopular.

KY open is going to be a tossup.
NC will be a possible upset for us.
LA will be competitive.

If Reid (NV) and Dodd (CT) both lose their seats. then Lincoln(AR),Bennett(CO),and Specter(PA) will lose.  Democrats will narrowly hold onto IL(Giannoulias). DE if Castle runs will be a tossup. Democrats will pick up OPEN GOP seats in MO,NH,and OH.

Democratic Held US House Districts that went for McCain.
1)MS-4 (Taylor-D) 32-68
2)TX-17 (Edwards-D) 32-67
3)OK-2 (Boren-D) 34-66
4)TN-4 (Davis-D) 34-64
5)AL-2 (Bright-D) 36-63
6)ID-1 (Minnick-D)36-62
7)MS-1 (Childers-D) 38-62
8)TN-6 (Gordon-D) 37-62
9)LA-3 (Melancon-D)37-61
10)MO-4 (Skelton-D) 38-61
11)AL-5 (Griffith-D) 38-61
12)AR-1 (Berry-D) 38-59
13)VA-9 (Boucher-D) 40-59
14)AR-4 (Ross-D) 39-58
15)UT-2 (Matheson-D) 39-57
16)MD-1 (Kravitol-D) 40-58
17)WV-1 (Mollohan-D) 42-57
18)WV-2 (Rahall-D) 42-56
19)TN-8 (Tanner-D) 43-56
20)SC-5 (Spratt-D) 43-56
21)GA-8 (Marshall-D) 43-56
22)KY-6 (Chandler-D)43-55
23)PA-4 (Altmire-D) 44-55
24)AR-2 (Snyder-D) 44-54
25)AZ-1 (Kilpatrick-D) 44-54
26)FL-2 (Boyd-D) 45-54
27)PA-10 (Carney-D) 45-54
28)ND-AL(Pomeroy-D) 45-53
29)SD-AL (Herseth-D) 45-53
30)OH-18 (Space-D) 45-52
31)AZ-8 (Giffords-D) 46-52
32)NC-7 (McIntyre-D) 47-52
33)NC-11(Schuler-D) 47-52
34)AZ-5 (Mitchell-D) 47-52
35)IN-8 (Ellsworth-D) 47-51
36)VA-5 (Perriello-D) 48-51
37)PA-17 (Holden-D) 48-51
38)NY-29 (Massa-D) 48-51
39)MN-7 (Peterson-D) 47-50
40)CO-3 (Salazar-D) 47-50
41)FL-24 (Kozmas-D) 49-51
42)OH-6 (Wilson-D) 48-50
43)OH-16 (Boccieri-D) 48-50
44)NY-13 (MacMahon-D) 49-51
45)IN-9 (Hill-D) 49-50
46)CO-4 (Markey-D) 49-50
47)NM-2 (Teague-D) 49-50
48)PA-12 (Murtha-D) 49-50
49)PA-3 (Dahlkemper-D) 49-49

Looking at the 49 McCain Democratic US House Districts.  The following US House Seats are likely to flip.
1)TX-17
2)TN-4
3)AL-2
4)ID-1
5)MS-1
6)LA-3 OPEN
7)AL-5
8)MD-1
9)GA-8
10)AZ-1
11)PA-10
12)OH-18
13)AZ-8
14)AZ-5
15)VA-5
16)NY-29
17)FL-24
18)OH-16
19)CO-4
20)NM-2
21)PA-12
22)PA-3

Other Democratic US House Members that might lose.
1)FL-8
2)MI-7
3)NY-20
4)NY-24
5)OH-1
6)OH-15
7)VA-2
8)NH-2
9)PA-7

We pickup LA-2,IL-10,PA-6 and DE-AL

At most Republicans will pick up 25 seats.

During the 1994 GOP Wave. Republicans made a net gain of 54 seats.
1)AZ-1 (Bush 41) 40-34-  now AZ-5 and AZ-6.
2)AZ-6 (Bush 41) 38-38- now AZ-1 and AZ-5- Democrats unseated Hayworth who represented AZ-5 after 2002 redistricting in 2006. Democrats won AZ-1 a new District in 2002 in 2008.
3)CA-1 (Clinton) 47-29- Democrats won back CA-1 in 1998.
4)CA-19 (Bush 41) 44-38-  Safe GOP District.
5)CA-49 (Clinton) 43-32- now CA-53- Democrats won back CA-49 in 2000- which became CA-53 in 2002 redistricting.
6)FL-1 (Bush 41) 51-26- Safe GOP District.
7)FL-15 (Bush 41) 43-31- Safe GOP District.
8)GA-7 (Bush 41) 47-39 - now GA-11 Safe GOP District.
9)GA-8 (Bush 41) 45-40- Democrats won back GA-8 in 2002 redistricting.
10)GA-10 (Bush 41) 46-39- Safe GOP District.
11)ID-1 (Bush 41) 42-31- Democrats won ID-1 in 2008.
12)IL-5 (Clinton) 51-33- Democrats won back IL-5 in 1996.
13)IL-11 (Clinton) 44-36- Democrats won back IL-11 in 2008.
14)IN-2 (Bush 41) 43-35 now IN-6 Safe GOP District.
15)IN-4 (Bush 41) 46-31 now IN-3 Safe GOP District.
16)IN-8 (Clinton) 43-40 Democrats won back IN-8 in 2006.
17)IA-4 (Clinton) 43-39- now IA-5 Safe GOP District
18)KS-2 (Bush 41) 36-36 Democrats won KS-2 in 2006 but lost it in 2008.
19)KS-4 (Bush 41) 40-33- Safe GOP District.
20)KY-1 (Clinton) 48-40- Safe GOP District.
21)KY-2 (Bush 41) 45-41- Safe GOP District.
22)ME-1 (Clinton) 40-32- Democrats won back ME-1 in 1996.
23)MI-8 (Clinton) 41-36- Democrats won back MI-8 in 1996 but lost it in 2000. In 2002- MI-8 became more Republican. MI-8 can be won back in a huge Democratic wave and a right candidate.
25)MN-1 (Clinton) 39-35- Democrats won back MN-1 in 2006.
26)MS-1 (Bush 41) 50-42- Democrats won back MS-1 in 2008.
27)NE-2 (Bush 41) 48-32- District is now Democratic Friendly.
28)NV-1 (Clinton) 44-31 Democrats won back NV-1 in 1998.
29)NH-2 (Clinton) 41-37- Democrats won back NH-2 in 2006.
30)NJ-2 (Clinton) 41-39- Safe GOP District but Democrats can win it back if OPEN Seat.
31)NJ-8 (Clinton) 46-43- Democrats won back NJ-8 in 1996.
32)NY-1 (Bush 41) 40-38- Democrats won back NY-1 in 2002-
33)NC-2 (Bush 41) 46-40 Democrats won back NC-2 in 1996.
34)NC-3 (Bush 41) 46-39 Safe GOP Seat.
35)NC-4 (Clinton) 47-39 Democrats won back NC-4 in 1996.
36)NC-5 (Bush 41) 44-43- Safe GOP Seat.
37)OH-1 (Clinton) 43-43- Democrats won back OH-1 in 2008
38)OH-6 (Bush 41) 40-40- Democrats won back OH-6 in 1996
39)OH-18 (Clinton) 43-34- Democrats won back OH-18 in 2006 after the District was gerrymandered to be more Republican.
40)OH-19 (Clinton) 40-37- Now OH-14 Safe GOP District but Democrats can win it back if OPEN Seat.
41)OK-2 (Clinton) 43-36 Democrats won back OK-2 in 2000.
42)OK-4 (Bush 41) 42-34 Safe GOP seat.
43)OK-6 (Bush 41) 43-34 Safe GOP Seat Now OK-6
44)OR-5 (Clinton) 40-35- Democrats won back OR-5 in 1996
45)PA-13 (Clinton) 44-40- Democrats won back PA-13 in 1998-
46)SC-3 (Bush 41) 52-35 Safe GOP Seat.
47)TN-3 (Bush 41) 44-44- Safe GOP Seat.
48)TN-4 (Clinton) 48-40- Democrats won back TN-4 in 2002.
49)TX-9 (Clinton) 44-36 Democrats won back TX-9 in 1996- The old TX-9 was eliminated during the 2003 Delaymander.
50)TX-13 (Bush 41) 43-36 Safe GOP Seat.
51)UT-2 (Bush 41) 39-31 Democrats won back UT-2 in 2000.
52)VA-11 (Bush 41) 43-43 Democrats won back VA-11 in 2008.
53)WA-1 (Clinton) 41-32 Democrats won back WA-1 in 1998.
54)WA-2 (Clinton) 41-33 Democrats won back WA-2 in 2000.
55)WA-3 (Clinton) 42-33 Democrats won back WA-3 in 1998.
56)WA-4 (Bush 41) 43-35 Safe GOP Seat.
57)WA-5 (Clinton) 40-37 Safe GOP Seat.
58)WA-9 (Clinton) 42-31 Democrats won back WA-9 in 1996.
59)WI-1 (Clinton) 41-36- Safe GOP Seat but Democrats can win it back if OPEN Seat or wave.
Democrats won
1)ME-2 (Clinton) 38-29
2)MN-6 (Clinton) 41-32- District was re-numbered MN-2 in 2002 became more GOP Friendly.-now held Republican.
3)PA-18 (Clinton) 52-31 Now Renumbered PA-14.
4)RI-1 (Clinton) 50-28

The Red District Democrats house members who survived the 1994 GOP wave was.
1)AL-3 (Browder)- retired in 1996- went Republican- Safe GOP.
2)AL-4 (Bevill)- retired in 1996- went Republican- Safe GOP.
3)AL-5 (Cramer)- retired in 2008- Democrat Griffith narrowly won seat in 2008.
4)GA-9 (Deal) switch parties in 1995- Safe GOP seat.
5)IN-3 (Roemer)- now IN-2- retired in 2002- went Republican in 2002- Democrats won IN-2 back in 2006.
6)KY-6 (Baesler)- retired in 1998 went Republican- Democrats won back KY-6 in 2004.
7)MI-10 (Bonior) retired in 2002- Went Republican- Safe GOP.
8)MS-3 (Montgomery)- retired in 1996- went Republican Safe GOP seat.
9)MS-4 (Parker)- switched parties in 1995- retired in 1998- went back Democratic- eliminated in 2002.
10)MO-4 (Skelton).
11)NC-8 (Hefner). retired in 1998- went Republican. Democrats won back NC-8 in 2008.
12)ND-AL (Pomeroy).
13)PA-6 (Holden)- now PA-17- gerrymandered into a GOP freindly District in 2002 and survived ever since.
14)SC-5 (Spratt)
15)SD-AL (Johnson)- ran for US Senate in 1996- seat went Republican- Democrats won it back in 2004.
16)TX-4 (Hall)- switched Parties in 2004- safe GOP seat.
17)TX-11 (Edwards)- now TX-17- gerrymandered into GOP friendly district in 2004 Delaymander and survived.
18)TX-14 (Laughlin)- switched parties in 1995-lost in GOP primary- Safe GOP seat.
19)TX-17 (Stenholm)- The OLD TX-17 was eliminated in 2004 Delaymander.
20)VA-2 (Pickett)- retired in 2000- seat went Republican. Democrats won it back in 2008.
21)VA-4(Sisisiky)-died in 2001- seat went Republican- safe GOP seat.
22)VA-5 (Payne)- retired in 1996- Goode elected as a Democrat became Republican held onto the seat until his defeat in 2008.

McCain Democratic Districts
1)AL-2(Bright-D)- Vulnerable
2)AL-5(Griffith-D)- Vulnerable
3)AZ-1(Kirkpatrick-D)- Safe
4)AZ-5(Mitchell-D)- Safe
5)AZ-8(Giffords-D)- Safe
6)AR-1(Berry-D)- Safe
7)AR-2(Snyder-D)-Safe
8)AR-4(Ross-D)-Safe
9)CO-3(Salazar-D)- Safe
10)CO-4(Markey-D)- Favored
11)FL-2(Boyd-D)- Safe
12)FL-24(Kosmas-D)- Favored
13)GA-8(Marshall-D)- Safe
14)ID-1(Minnick-D)- Vulnerable
15)IN-8(Ellsworth-D)- Safe
16)IN-9(Hill-D)- Safe
17)KY-6(Chandler-D)- Safe
18)LA-3(Melancon-D)- Vulnerable- open seat
19)MD-1(Kravotil-D)- Vulnerable-
20)MN-7(Peterson-D)- Safe
21)MS-1(Childers-D)- Vulnerable
22)MS-4(Taylor-D)- Safe
23)MO-4(Skelton-D)- Safe
24)NM-2(Teague-D)- Vulnerable- Top Tier Challenger.
25)NY-13(McMahon-D)- Safe
26)NY-29(Massa-D)- Vulnerable
27)NC-7(McIntyre-D)- Safe
28)NC-11(Schuler-D)- Safe
29)ND-AL(Pomeroy-D)- Safe
30)OH-6(Wilson-D)- Safe
31)OH-16(Boccieri-D)-Safe
32)OH-18(Space-D)- Safe
33)OK-2(Boren-D)- Safe
34)PA-3(Dahlkemper-D)- Safe
35)PA-4(Altmire-D)- Safe
36)PA-10(Carney-D)- Safe
37)PA-12(Murtha-D)- Safe
38)PA-17(Holden-D)- Safe
39)SC-5(Spratt-D)- Safe
40)SD-AL(Herseth-Sandlin-D)- Safe
41)TN-4(Davis-D)- Favored
42)TN-6(Gordon-D)- Safe
43)TN-8(Tanner-D)- Safe
44)TX-17(Edwards-D)- Favored
45)UT-2(Matheson-D)- Safe
46)VA-5(Periello-D)- Vulnerable
47)VA-9(Boucher-D)- Safe
48)WV-1(Mollahan-D)- Safe
49)WV-3(Rahall-D)- Safe

Republican Favored.
AL
AK
AZ
FL
GA
ID
IA
KS
OK
SC
SD
UT
Leans Republican-
LA
NC
Tossup
AR
CO
CT
DE-if Castle runs.
KY
NV
NH
OH
PA
Leans DEM
IL
MO
NY-B
Democratic Favored
CA
DE-if Castle does not run.
HI
IN
MD
NY
ND
OR
VT
WA
WI


Dems will pick up MO and hold on to IL,NY-B,and DE-assuming Castle does not run.
AR,CO,CT,KY,NV,NH,OH,and PA will depend on how things turn out nationally.
IF 2010 is a bad year for DEMS- expect DEMs to lose couple of those seats.

AR- anti Obama state- hurt Lincoln ie Anti Bush in 2006 hurting Chaffee.
CO- Tough primary challenge against Bennett-
CT- Dodd's scandal- national Republicans are going target him.
KY- Tossup GOP held seat.
NV- National Republicans are going to target Reid to embarrass DEMS.
NH- Hodes is a boring candidate- Ayotte- is doing better than expected. DEMS need to define Ayotte- portray her as a Conservative nutjob.
OH- Divisive Dem Primary may help Portman-R- Need to remind OH voters how close Portman was with Bush-43 economic policies.
PA- Divisive DEM Primary. Need to remind PA voters how conservative Toomey is.

Here is a list of Democratic US House Seats that will stay in the Democratic collumn.
1)AL-7(OPEN-Davis-D)
2)AZ-4(Pastor-D)
3)AZ-7(Grijalva-D)
4)AR-1(Berry-D)
5)AR-2(Snyder-D)
6)AR-4(Ross-D)
7)CA-1(Thompson-D)
8)CA-5(Matsui-D)
9)CA-6(Woosley-D)
10)CA-7(Miller-D)
11)CA-8(Pelosi-D)
12)CA-9(Lee-D)
13)CA-10(VACANT-Tauscher-D)-Garamendi-D
14)CA-11(McNerney-D)
15)CA-12(Speier-D)
16)CA-13(Stark-D)
17)CA-14(Eshoo-D)
18)CA-15(Honda-D)
19)CA-16(Lofgren-D)
20)CA-17(Farr-D)
21)CA-18(Cardoza-D)
22)CA-20(Costa-D)
23)CA-23(Capps-D)
24)CA-27(Sherman-D)
25)CA-28(Berman-D)
26)CA-29(Schiff-D)
27)CA-30(Waxman-D)
28)CA-31(Bacerra-D)
29)CA-32(Chu-D)
30)CA-33(Watson-D)
31)CA-34(Roybal-Allard-D)
32)CA-35(Waters-D)
33)CA-36(Harman-D)
34)CA-37(Richardson-D)
35)CA-38(Napalitano-D)
36)CA-39(Sanchez-D)
37)CA-43(Baca-D)
38)CA-47(Sanchez-D)
39)CA-51(Filner-D)
40)CA-53(Davis-D)
41)CO-1(DeGette-D)
42)CO-2(Polis-D)
43)CO-3(Salazar-D)
44)CO-7(Perlmutter-D)
45)CT-1(Larson-D)
46)CT-2(Courtney-D)
47)CT-3(DeLauro-D)
48)CT-4(Himes-D)
49)CT-5(Murphy-D)
50)FL-2(Boyd-D)
51)FL-3(OPEN-Brown-D)
52)FL-11(Castor-D)
53)FL-17(OPEN-Meek-D)
54)FL-19(Wexler-D)
55)FL-20(Wasserman-Schultz-D)
56)FL-22(Klien-D)
57)FL-23(Hastings-D)
58)GA-2(Bishop-D)
59)GA-4(Johnson-D)
60)GA-5(Lewis-D)
61)GA-8(Marshall-D)
62)GA-12(Barrow-D)
63)GA-13(Scott-D)
64)HI-1(OPEN-Abercrombie-D)
65)HI-2(Hirono-D)
66)IL-1(Rush-D)
67)IL-2(Jackson-D)
68)IL-3(Lipinski-D)
69)IL-4(Guitteriez-D)
70)IL-5(Quigley-D)
71)IL-7(OPEN-Davis-D)
72)IL-8(Bean-D)
73)IL-9(Schakowsky-D)
74)IL-11(Halverson-D)
75)IL-12(Costello-D)
76)IL-14(Foster-D)
77)IL-17(Hare-D)
78)IN-1(Visclosky-D)
79)IN-2(Donnelly-D)
80)IN-7(Carson-D)
81)IN-8(Ellsworth-D)
82)IN-9(Hill-D)
83)IA-1(Braley-D)
84)IA-2(Loesback-D)
85)KS-3(Moore-D)
86)KY-3(Yarmuth-D)
87)KY-6(Chandler-D)
88)ME-1(Pingree-D)
89)ME-2(Michaud-D)
90)MD-2(Ruppersberger-D)
91)MD-3(Sarbanes-D)
92)MD-4(Edwards-D)
93)MD-5(Hoyer-D)
94)MD-7(Cummings-D)
95)MD-8(Van Hollen-D)
96)MA-1(Olver-D)
97)MA-2(Neal-D)
98)MA-3(McGovern-D)
99)MA-4(Frank-D)
100)MA-5(Tsongas-D)
101)MA-6(Tierney-D)
102)MA-7(Markey-D)
103)MA-8(Capuano-D)
104)MA-9(Lynch-D)
105)MA-10(Delahunt-D)
106)MI-1(Stupak-D)
107)MI-5(Kildee-D)
108)MI-12(Levin-D)
109)MI-13(Kilpatrick-D)
110)MI-14(Conyers-D)
111)MI-15(Dingell-D)
112)MN-1(Walz-D)
113)MN-4(McCollum-D)
114)MN-5(Ellison-D)
115)MN-7(Peterson-D)
116)MN-8(Oberstar-D)
117)MS-1(Childers-D)
118)MS-2(Thompson-D)
119)MS-4(Taylor-D)
120)MO-1(Clay-D)
121)MO-3(Carnahan-D)
122)MO-4(Skelton-D)
123)MO-5(Cleaver-D)
124)NV-1(Berkley-D)
125)NV-3(Titus-D)
126)NJ-1(Andrews-D)
127)NJ-6(Pallone-D)
128)NJ-8(Pascrell-D)
129)NJ-9(Rothman-D)
130)NJ-10(Payne-D)
131)NJ-12(Holt-D)
132)NJ-13(Siros-D)
133)NM-1(Heinrich-D)
134)NM-3(Lujan-D)
135)NY-1(Bishop-D)
136)NY-2(Israel-D)
137)NY-4(McCarthy-D)
138)NY-5(Ackerman-D)
139)NY-6(Meeks-D)
140)NY-7(Crowley-D)
141)NY-8(Nadler-D)
142)NY-9(Weiner-D)
143)NY-10(Towns-D)
144)NY-11(Clarke-D)
145)NY-12(Vasquez-D)
146)NY-13(McMahon-D)
147)NY-14(Maloney-D)
148)NY-15(Rangel-D)
149)NY-16(Serrano-D)
150)NY-17(Engel-D)
151)NY-18(Lowey-D)
152)NY-19(Hall-D)
153)NY-21(Tonko-D)
154)NY-25(Maffei-D)
155)NY-27(Higgins-D)
156)NY-28(Slaughter-D)
157)NC-1(Butterfield-D)
158)NC-2(Ethridge-D)-if Ethridge does not run for US Senate.
159)NC-4(Price-D)
160)NC-7(McIntrye-D)
161)NC-8(Kissell-D)
162)NC-11(Schuler-D)
163)NC-12(Watt-D)
164)NC-13(Miller-D)
165)ND-AL(Pomeroy-D)
166)OH-6(Wilson-D)
167)OH-9(Kaptur-D)
168)OH-10(Kucinich-D)
169)OH-11(Fudge-D)
170)OH-13(Sutton-D)
171)OH-16(Bocciero-D)
172)OH-17(Ryan-D)
173)OH-18(Space-D)
174)OK-2(Boren-D)
175)OR-1(Wu-D)
176)OR-3(Bluemenaur-D)
177)OR-4(DeFazio-D)
178)OR-5(Schrader-D)
179)PA-1(Brady-D)
180)PA-2(Fattah-D)
181)PA-4(Altmire-D)
182)PA-8(Murphy-D)
183)PA-10(Carney-D)
184)PA-13(Schwartz-D)
185)PA-14(Doyle-D)
186)PA-17(Holden-D)
187)RI-1(Kennedy-D)
188)RI-2(Langevin-D)
189)SC-5(Spratt-D)
190)SC-6(Clyburn-D)
191)SD-AL(Herseth-Sandlin-D)
192)TN-4(Davis-D)
193)TN-5(Cooper-D)
194)TN-6(Gordon-D)
195)TN-8(Tanner-D)
196)TN-9(Cohen-D)
197)TX-9(Green-D)
198)TX-15(Hinojosa-D)
199)TX-16(Reyes-D)
200)TX-17(Edwards-D)
201)TX-18(Jackson-Lee-D)
202)TX-20(Gonzalez-D)
203)TX-23(Rodrieguez-D)
204)TX-25(Doggett-D)
205)TX-27(Ortiz-D)
206)TX-28(Cueller-D)
207)TX-29(Green-D)
208)TX-30(Johnson-D)
209)UT-2(Matheson-D)
210)VT-AL(Matheson-D)
211)VA-3(Scott-D)
212)VA-8(Moran-D)
213)VA-9(Boucher-D)
214)VA-11(Connolly-D)
215)WA-1(Inslee-D)
216)WA-2(Larsen-D)
217)WA-3(Baird-D)
218)WA-6(Dicks-D)
219)WA-7(McDermott-D)
220)WA-9(Smith-D)
221)WI-2(Baldwin-D)
222)WI-3(Kind-D)
223)WI-4(Moore-D)
224)WI-7(Obey-D)
225)WI-8(Kagan-D)
plus we pick up  GOP seats in
226)DE-AL(assuming Castle retires)
227)IL-10(OPEN-Kirk-D)
228)LA-2(Cao-D)


33 seats
lost FL-16,KS-2,LA-2,LA-6,and TX-22
picked up AL-2,AZ-1,CO-4,CT-4,FL-8,FL-24,ID-1,IL-11,MD-1,MI-7,MI-9,NV-3,NJ-3,NM-1,NM-2,NY-13,NY-25,
NY-29,NC-8,OH-1,OH-15,OH-16,PA-3,VA-2,VA-5,VA-11.

From 2006/2008- election cycle we made a net gain of 54 US House Seats.

I see at most Democrats losing 30 seats.

Democrats have an excellent recruitment in 2010 than Republicans.

OPEN GOP seats.
FL- The Republicans are going to nominate Governor Charlie Crist. Whoever the Democrats nominate will be an underdog against Crist.

KS- Red State to elect a Democrat. even Kathleen Sebelius will be a slight underdog.

KY- Democrats have Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo/AG Jack Conway. Republicans have Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Tossup.

MO- Democrats have Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Republicans have Roy Blunt. Democratic Pickup.

NH- Democrats have US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans have Kathy Ayotte. Democratic Pickup.

OH- Democrats have Lt Governor Lee Fisher/Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Republicans have Robert Portman.  Democratic Pickup.

OPEN Democrats.
DE- Democrats have Beau Biden. - If Republicans get Mike Castle- It will be a tossup but in the end Biden will win.

IL- Democrats have Alexi Giannoulias. Republicans have Mark Kirk.- Democratic Retention.

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents.
AR- Lincoln- The Only Democratic Senator up for re-election from an anti Obama- State. Republican bench is weak.

CA- Boxer- Boxer is to CA what Cornyn is to TX. too much of an ideologue but gets re-elected due to the partisan demographics of their state.

CO- Bennett- appointed Democrat from swing state- no elected experience. Republicans are not fielding any top tier candidates to challenge Bennett.

CT- Dodd- Usually Safe but First Time Vulnerable because of Bad Publicity. Republican have top tier challenger- ex US Rep Bob Simmons. Tossup but Dodd will end up winning in the end.

NV- Reid- vulnerable being Senate Majority Leader. always faced tough race except in 2004. Republican bench is weak.

NY- Gillibrand- appointed but GOP bench is weak. Pataki,Guiliani,and King will be underdogs.

ND- Dorgan-another Red State Democratic Senator up for re-election but Dorgan popularity is greater than the hatred of Obama.

PA- Specter is faceing a tough primary challenge from Joe Sestak. Republicans have Pat Toomey who may be too conservative for the state. It all depends on how the primary turns out.

WA- Murray is vulnerable because of Liberal ideology but keeps on getting re-elected.   GOP base is weak.

WI- Feingold is vulnerable because of Liberal ideology but keeps on getting re-elected. GOP bench is weak.

Other Democratic US Senators up for re-election.
HI- Inouye is an elder statesman- He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
IN- Bayh is very popular in IN. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
MD- Mikulski is very popular in MD. She will get re-elected by a landslide.
NY- Schumer is very popular in NY. He will get re-elected by a landslide.
OR- Wyden is very popular in OR. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
VT- Leahy is an elder statesman. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.

If Democrats were to lose any seat in 2010.
It will be in
AR- Anti Obama State. Lincoln have mediocre popularity.
CO- Swing State- Bennett is appointed with little elected experience.
and maybe PA- depending on how the Democratic primary turns out.
Dodd-CT and Reid-NV will survive because of their Leadership Roles.
VP Biden will do everything to make sure his son wins his old US Senate Seat(DE) and President Obama will do everything to make sure his friend Alexi Giannoulias wins his old US Senate Seat (IL).

Vulnerable Republican Incumbents.
First Term US Senators elected because of Bush 2004 coattails.
AK- Murkowski- narrowly defeated a former two term Governor. Dem bench is weak. Safe GOP.
GA- Isakson- elected by a landslide margin. Democratic bench is weak. Safe GOP.
LA- Vitter- elected with 51% of the popular vote with a Divided Democratic Field. Democrats have a top tier challenger Charlie Melancon. LA will be competitive- Vitter will win in the end.
NC- Burr elected by narrow margin. Burr seat is a curse seat. A possible upset is likely to occur.
OK- Coburn- Dem bench is weak.
SC- DeMint- Dem bench is weak.
SD- Thune- Dem bench is weak.

Rest of the Republican seat are safe.
AL- Shelby
AZ- McCain
ID- Crapo
IA- Grassley
UT- Bennett.

Blanche Lincoln is either the Democratic version of Susan Collins-ME2008- She will get re-elected despite being vulnerable to defeat due to moderate image or be a Democratic version of Lincoln Chaffee-RI2006- she will lose being a Democrat from an increasingly Red State despite her moderate image.

In 2002- Republicans won Governorships in MA and RI.

u dont say

Mr. Moderate- Meet me in the Minneapolis- St Paul- Airport Bathroom.

In 2002- Republicans won Governorships in MA and RI.

Who ever challenges Blanche Lincoln or Arkansas?
Carly Fiorina of California?
Mark Kirk of Illinios?
Roy Blunt of Missouri?
Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire?
Robert Portman of Ohio?
Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania?
Who ever challenges Patty Murray of Washington?
Who ever challenges Russ Feingold of Wisconsin?

The difference between Blunt and whoever the Dems run in Florida against Crist- with the exception of Kendrick Meek is Blunt-MO is unelectable to any Democratic opponent except for Lacy Clay,Emanuel Cleaver,Bob Holden.  In Florida- Kendrick Meek can at least make the race a tossup against Marco Rubio but will lose by a landslide to Charlie Crist.