Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 01, 2014, 09:12:59 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23]
551  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Who is going to be the major flop candidate? on: August 24, 2009, 10:24:11 am
Blunt(MO) is a dead duck from the getgo.- NRSC will be foolish not to abandon him.
Simmons(CT),Castle(DE),Kirk(IL),Ayotte(NH),Portman(OH) and Toomey(PA) are credible GOP candidates that will end up losing.
Toomey(PA) loses by a double digit.
Portman(OH),Ayotte(NH),and Kirk(IL) will lose by a high single digit margin.
Simmons(CT) and Castle(DE) will be 50-50 races.
552  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 22, 2009, 10:25:09 am
Again, the key is going to be suburbia around Cooke County.  If Kirk can sweep these votes, which we used to win, but not lately and keep the margin in Cooke to somewhere around 60-40, there's a chance.

A Republican can't come close to winning 40% in Cook County.

Cook County is entirely in IL-1,IL-2,IL-3,IL-4,IL-5,IL-7,and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat- gets over 80% of the popular vote in IL-1,IL-2,IL-4,and IL-7.
A Generic Democrat gets over 70% of the popular vote in IL-5 and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat gets over 60% of the popular vote in IL-3.

A portion of Cook County is in IL-6,IL-8,IL-10,and IL-13.
Peter Roskam's base is DuPage County. 
Melissa Bean overperforms in McHenry and Lake County.
Mark Kirk's base is Lake County
Judy Biggerts base is DuPage and Will County.

A Generic Democrat will get at least  70% of the popular vote in Cook County which consists of 40% of the electorate.  For a Democrat to lose in Statewide- they need to get less than 40% in Downstate IL and Collar Counties.  Carol Moseley Braun lost every County outside of Cook County.

553  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2010 Midterm Elections and Onwards : The Real Deal on: August 21, 2009, 10:21:05 am
7:00 Polls Closing Time.
Georgia US Senate- Johnny Isakson (R) wins a second term.
Georgia Governor-  Nathan Deal (R) becomes the next Governor of Georgia defeating Roy Barnes(D).
Indiana US Senate- Evan Bayh (D) wins a third term.
Kentucky US Senate- Trey Grayson (R) becomes the next  US Senator from Kentucky.
Ohio US Senate- Lee Fisher(D) becomes the next US Senator from Ohio. (+1D)
Ohio Governor- Ted Strickland (D) wins a second term.
South Carolina US Senate- Jim DeMint (R) wins a second term.
South Carolina Governor- Gresham Barrett (R) becomes the next Governor if South Carolina.
Vermont US Senate- Pat Leahy(D) wins a 7th term.
Vermont Governor- Jim Douglas (R) wins a 5th term.
8:00 pm
Alabama US Senate- Richard Shelby(R) wins a 5th term.
Alabama Governor-  Tim James (R) becomes the next Governor of Alabama.
Arkansas US Senate- Blanche Lincoln (D) wins a 3rd term.
Arkansas Governor- Mike Beebe (D) wins a 2nd term.
Connecticut US Senate- Too Close to Call.
Connecticut Governor- Jodi Rell (R) wins a 2nd 4 year term.
Delaware- US Senate- Beau Biden (D) is projected winner of the DE US Senate Race previously held by his father.
Florida- US Senate- Charlie Crist (R) is the next US Senator from Florida.
Florida Governor- Bill McCollum (R) is the next Governor of Florida.
Illinios US Senate- Alexi Giannoulias(D) is projected winner of the IL US Senate Race previously held by Barack Obama.
Illinios Governor- Pat Quinn(D) wins a full 4 year term.
Kansas- US Senate- Jerry Moran (R) becomes the next US Senator from Kansas.
Kansas- Governor- Sam Brownback (R) becomes the next Governor of Kansas. (+1R)
Maine Governor- Too Close to Call.
Maryland US Senate- Barbara Mikulski (D) wins a 5th term.
Maryland Governor- Martin O'Malley (D) wins a 2nd term.
Massachusetts US Senate- Joe Kennedy (D) wins a Special Election for a seat vacated by his Uncle-former US Senator Ted Kennedy.
Massachusetts Governor- Deval Patrick (D) narrowly wins a contested 3 way Governors Race.
Missouri- Rob Carnahan(D) becomes the next US Senator from Missouri (+2D).
New Hampshire US Senate- Paul Hodes (D) becomes the next US Senator from New Hampshire (+3D)
New Hampshire Governor- John Lynch (D) wins a 4th term.
North Carolina US Senate- Richard Burr (R) wins a 2nd term.
Oklahoma US Senate- Tom Coburn (R) wins a 2nd term.
Oklahoma Governor- Mary Fallin (R) becomes the next Governor of Oklahoma (+2R)
Pennsylvania US Senate- Arlen Specter (D) wins a 6th term.
Pennsylvania Governor- Jim Gerlach (R) becomes the next Governor of Pennsylvania (+3R)
Tennessee Governor- Zack Wamp (R) becomes the next Governor of Tennessee (+4R).
9:00
Arizona US Senator- John McCain (R) wins a 5th term.
Arizona Governor- Too Close to Call.
Colorado US Senator- Too Close to Call.
Colorado Governor- Too Close to Call.
Louisiana US Senate- David Vitter(R) wins a 2nd term.
Michigan Governor- Mike Cox (R) becomes the next Governor of Michigan (+5R)
Minnesota Governor- Mark Dayton (D) becomes the next Governor of Minnesota winning a close three way race.  (+4R)
Nebraska Governor- Dave Heineman R wins a 2nd full 4 year term.
New Mexico- Diane Denish (D) becomes the next Governor of New Mexico.
New York US Senate- Chuck Schumer (D) wins a 3rd term.
New York US Senate- Kirsten Gillibrand (D)wins a Special Election for a seat held by S.O.S Hillary Clinton.
New York Governor- Too Close to Call.
Rhode Island Governor- Lincoln Chaffee (I) wins a three way race for Governor.
South Dakota US Senate- John Thune (R) wins a 2nd term.
South Dakota Governor- Dave Deragurad becomes the next Governor of SD.
Texas- US Senator- Dave Dewhurst (R) wins a special election for seat vacated by KBH.
Texas Governor- Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) becomes the next Governor of TX.
Wisconsin US Senator- Russ Feingold (D) wins a 4th term.
Wisconsin Governor- Barbara Lawton (D) becomes the next Governor of WI.
Wyoming Governor- Dave Freudenthal (D) wins a unprecendented 3rd term.
10:00pm
Iowa US Senate- Chuck Grassley (R) wins a 6th term
Iowa Governor- Chet Culver (D) wins a 2nd term.
Nevada US Senate- Harry Reid (D) wins a 5th term.
Nevada Governor- Jim Gibbons (R) lose re-election.
North Dakota-US Senator- Byron Dorgan (D) wins a 4th term.
Utah US Senate- Robert Bennett (R) wins a 4th term.
11:00pm
California US Senate- Barbara Boxer (D) wins a 4th term.
California Governor- Jerry Brown (D) wins a non consecutive 3rd term. winning the GOvernorship after 28 years leaving office.
Hawaii- US Senator- Dan  Inouye (D) wins a 9th term.
Hawaii- Governor- Neil Abercombie (D) becomes the next Governor of Hawaii.
Idaho- US Senator- Mike Crapo(R) wins a 3rd term.
Idaho Governor- Butch Otter (R) wins a 2nd term.
Oregon US Senator- Ron Wyden (D) wins a 3rd 6 year term.
Oregon Governor- Bill Bradbury (D) becomes the next Governor of Oregon.
Washington US Senate- Patty Murray wins a 4th Term.
Alaska US Senator- Lisa Murkowski- wins a 2nd term.
Alaska Governor- Sean Parnell wins a full 1st term.

US Senate- DEM GAIN- MO,NH,and OR
                  DEM LOSE- CT,CO- (+1D)
Governor- DEM LOSE (KS,MI,NJ,OK,PA,TN,VAand WY)
                DEM GAIN- (CA,HI,MN,and NV)
                IND GAIN- (RI)




554  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 21, 2009, 09:13:04 am
I tend to think otherwise, Dan Seals will bring out minority support and they won't be supporting Kirk.

Why would Seals bring out minority support?  He is running for the House of Representatives.  Most people don't even know who the hell their Congressman is let alone show up to vote in an off year election.

If Seals was running for the US Senate or another Statewide Elected Office than bringing out minority support will be revelant- Seals is running for the US House of Representative from a Suburban Chicago Congressional District- where White Pro Choice Moderates are key to winning the general.  Winning IL-10 is like winning PA-13.
555  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2010 senate prediction on: August 21, 2009, 09:01:56 am
DWTL, why would Dorgan lose now?  He survived 2004, and Hoeven is not going to run against him; who'll take him out?

Daschle lost in 2004 because of George W. Bush's coattails- Bush carried SD by a 20 point margin and Daschle was running against John Thune- who was a popular former At Large US House Member of South Dakota who just narrowly lost the race for US Senate in 2002 against Tim Johnson.
Dorgan won in 2004 with a sacrificial lamb GOP challenger. Regarding the 2010 race against Hoeven. Neither Hoeven nor Dorgan have any Presidential coattails like Thune had in 2004.

556  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Why did Crist run for Senate instead of for Re-Election? on: August 19, 2009, 08:45:21 am
If Crist ran for re-election instead of running for the US Senate. Democrats would have won the OPEN US Senate Seat- Martinez is vacating.
Ron Klien, Kathy Castor, or Debbie Wasserman Schultz would have entered the US Senate Race. With the exception of Jeb Bush,Ilena Ros Lehtenin and maybe Connie Mack Jr. The Republican candidates would not stand a chance of getting elected to the US Senate.
2010 was a best time for Crist to get elected to the US Senate. It is an open seat election. Bill Nelson's seat does not come up until 2012- Unseating Nelson in 2012 or the new Democratic US Senate from FL in 2016 will be difficult, Crist is no longer going to have a high job approval rating. The last Florida Governor to get elected US Senate- Bob Graham- unseated Republican Incumbent Paula Hawkins who was part of the 1980 Reagan Revolution. 
557  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 19, 2009, 08:02:26 am
In 1998 when Carol Mosely Braun narrowly lost to Peter Fitzgerald.
George Ryan narrowly won the Governors Race against Glenn Poshard.
In 2010- The Democratic Nominee ,whether is Pat Quinn or Dan Hynes is going to win the 2010 IL Governors Race by a double digit margin.
In 1998- Republican IL AG Jim Ryan and IL Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka won re-election by a double digit/landslide margin.  The open seats were Secretary of State which Democrat Jesse White won by a landslide margin and Comptroller- which Dan Hynes won by a landslide margin.
2010- Democratic IL AG Lisa Madigan and IL Secretary of State Jesse White are running for re-election- They are going to win by a landslide margin. Which candidate is going to get the most votes statewide.  Regarding the open Treasurer and Comptrollers position. Democrats are going to win both of these positions by a wide margin.
Because Democrats are going to win every statewide elected office in IL- Kirk will have a tough time winning.
558  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2010 senate prediction on: August 18, 2009, 02:34:48 pm
With the exception of 1986,1990,1996 and 2006 and 2008- 1 or 2 Democratic Incumbents lost re-election.
1988- Jack Melcher(MT), 1992- Fowler(GA),and Sanford (NC), 1994- Wofford(PA),and Sasser(TN), 1998 - Mosely Braun (IL), 2000 - Robb (VA). 2002  Cleland -GA ,Carnahan-MO, and 2004- Daschle- SD.

Chris Dodd- CT will probally be the only Democratic Incumbent that loses his seat but it will be a narrow margin like the Daschle/Thune race.  All other vulnerable or so called vulnerable Democratic incumbents- Lincoln-AR,Boxer-CA, Bennett-CO, Reid-NV,Gillibrand-NY,Dorgan-ND if Hoevan runs, Specter/Sestak-PA, Murray-WA and Feingold-WI will get re-elected.

That leaves us DE and IL.
DE becomes a Tossup if Castle runs- other than that - Safe Democratic.
IL is going to be like the 1996 NJ US Senate Race between Bob Torricelli and Dick Zimmer- an open seat Senate Race to replace Bill Bradley. It was the most closely watched and expensive US Senate Race in history- Despite all of that Torrecelli won by a 10point margin.

On the GOP side. The open seats in MO,OH,and NH and possibly KY are like the 2008 US Senate Races in VA,NM,and CO- Strong Democratic Candidates vs Weak GOP Candidates.

FL is Republican because of Charlie Crist.  KS is a Republican State- Had Sebelius ran it would have been a Tossup at Best. 

Regarding Vulnerable GOP incumbents- NC- Burr- It is a Curse Seat- Obama's narrow victory, Hagan's upset victory over Dole- Burr is a first term who won in 2004 because of GWBush's coattails.

The biggest upset will be Vitter-LA losing.
559  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 18, 2009, 01:55:43 pm
As I mentioned before- The Giannoulias vs Kirk race is going to be like the Hillary Clinton vs Rick Lazio 2000 NY US Senate Race.

Kirk is going to be Rick Lazio- a Moderate to Conservative US Congressman from a Democratic leaning suburban  congressional district. Lazio represented a NYC Suburban Congressional District. Kirk represents a Chicago Suburban Congressional District.
Giannoulias is going to be Hillary Clinton- A polarizing Democratic elected official.

Hillary won the 2000 NY US Senate Race by a 55-42 percent margin by winning NYC with at least 75% of the popular vote.  Cutting into the  Lazio's base in Upstate NY getting at least 45%. and 45% in Long Island.

Giannoulias is going to get at least 75% of the popular vote in Chicago.  (40% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 50% of the popular vote in Chicago Suburbs (20% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 45% of the popular vote in NW and Downstate Illinios (40% of the population.)

Giannoulias is going to win by a 57-42 percent margin.
Giannoulias will have not only Barack Obama, but the Daley Machine, the Madigan Machine, and the Hynes Machine.

If we were to determine the 2010 IL US Senate Race based on Congressional Districts.
Giannoulias will win the CBC Districts 1,2,and 7 with at least 85% of the popular.
Giannoulias will win the CHC District 4 (Guitteriez) by at least 80% of the popular vote.
Giannoulias will get at least 65% of the popular vote in IL-5(Rostenkowski,Blagojovich,and Emanuel) and IL-9(Schakowsky). Northern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 60% of the popular vote in IL-3(Lipinski) Southern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 50% of the popular vote in IL- 10(Kirk's District) and IL-11(Halverson).
Giannoulias will get at least 45% of the popular vote in IL-6,IL-8,IL-13,IL-14 and IL-16- NW Collar County Districts.
Giannoulias will get at least 55% of the popular vote in IL-12(Costello)-Downstate) and IL-17(Lane Evans/Phil Hare)- Rock Island/Springfield District.
Giannoulias will get at least 40% of the popular vote in IL-15(Tim Johnson),IL-18(Ray LaHood, Aaron Schrock,) and IL-19(John Shimkus).

560  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 18, 2009, 09:48:33 am
In states like California, Connecticut,Delaware, Illinios, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, winning a US Senate  nowadays is tough for Republicans.

In order for a Republican to win a US Senate Seat in these states. The Democrat needs to be unpopular or corrupt.  ie  Dodd-CT during the 2010 Cycle. Moseley Braun-IL during the 1998 Cycle. Torrecelli-NJ during 2002 when he dropped out.


Giannoulias will do well in Chicago- neutralize Kirk's strength in Collar Counties. Turnout in Downstate IL will be low.  This will be like the Hillary-Lazio 2000 NY race.  The biggest question is how well Giannoulias can play in Downstate IL.
561  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2010 senate prediction on: August 17, 2009, 11:05:31 am
Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to.
AR- Lincoln-D
CA- Boxer-D
CO- Bennet-D wins a full first term.
DE- if Castle does not run.- Beau Biden-D
HI- Inouye-D
IL- Giannoulias-D
IN-Bayh-D
MD- Mikulski-D
NV- Reid-D
NYA/B- Schumer and Gillibrand.
ND- Dorgan-D
OR- Wyden-D
VT- Leahy-D
WA- Murray-D
WI- Feingold-D
Democrats are likely to lose
CT- Dodd is trailing Simmons- if Dodd steps aside- Democratic retention.
DE- if Castle runs- Tossup.
PA- it depends on how the Democratic primary turnsout.
Republican seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- Shelby-R
AK- Murkowski-R
AZ- McCain-R
FL- Crist-R
GA- Isakson-R
ID- Crapo-R
IA- Grassley-R
KS- Moran/Tiahrt-R
KY- Grayson-R- by a narrow margin.
LA- Vitter-R
NC- Burr-R by a narrow margin.
OK- Coburn-R
SC- DeMint-R
SD- Thune-R
TX- Republicans win in Special Election.
UT- Bennett-R

Republicans will lose
MO- Carnahan-D
NH- Hodes-D
OH- Fisher/Brunner-D

KY and NC will be the wave US Senate Elections.

NC will be the biggest shocker race.
562  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races on: August 17, 2009, 10:44:34 am
Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to
AR- Beebe-D
CO- Ritter-D
IL- Quinn/Hynes-D
IA- Culver-D
ME- 
MD- O'Malley-D
MA- Patrick-D- narrow win.
NH- Lynch-D
NM- Denish-D
NY- if either Cuomo or Suozzi is the Democratic nominee.
OH- Strickland-D
OR- Kitzhaber or Bradbury-D
PA- if Wagner or Onorato is the Democratic nominee
WI- Lawton-D
WY-if Freudenthal-D is permited to run again.
Democrats will lose or likely lose.
KS- Brownback-R
MI- Cox-R
NY- if Paterson is the Democratic Nominee and Guiliani is the GOP nominee.
OK- Fallin-R
PA- if Knox is the Democratic nominee
TN- Wamp-R
WY- if Freudenthal-D is barred from running again.
Republican Seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- if Moore is not the GOP nominee.
AK- Parnell-R
CT- Rell-R
GA- Oxedine-R
ID- Otter-R
NE- Heineman-R
SC- Barrett-R
SD- Duragard-R
TX- Hutchison/Perry-R
UT- Herbert-R
VT- Douglas-R
Republicans will lose or likely lose
AL- if Moore is the GOP nominee
AZ- Goddard-D
CA- Brown-D
FL- Sink-D
HI- Abercrombie-D
MN- Rybak-D
NV- Whoever the Democratic nominee is will defeat Jim Gibbons
RI- Tossup between Chaffee-I vs Democratic Nominee. Republican Nominee is irrevelant.








Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23]


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines