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551  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2010 senate prediction on: August 21, 2009, 09:01:56 am
DWTL, why would Dorgan lose now?  He survived 2004, and Hoeven is not going to run against him; who'll take him out?

Daschle lost in 2004 because of George W. Bush's coattails- Bush carried SD by a 20 point margin and Daschle was running against John Thune- who was a popular former At Large US House Member of South Dakota who just narrowly lost the race for US Senate in 2002 against Tim Johnson.
Dorgan won in 2004 with a sacrificial lamb GOP challenger. Regarding the 2010 race against Hoeven. Neither Hoeven nor Dorgan have any Presidential coattails like Thune had in 2004.

552  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Why did Crist run for Senate instead of for Re-Election? on: August 19, 2009, 08:45:21 am
If Crist ran for re-election instead of running for the US Senate. Democrats would have won the OPEN US Senate Seat- Martinez is vacating.
Ron Klien, Kathy Castor, or Debbie Wasserman Schultz would have entered the US Senate Race. With the exception of Jeb Bush,Ilena Ros Lehtenin and maybe Connie Mack Jr. The Republican candidates would not stand a chance of getting elected to the US Senate.
2010 was a best time for Crist to get elected to the US Senate. It is an open seat election. Bill Nelson's seat does not come up until 2012- Unseating Nelson in 2012 or the new Democratic US Senate from FL in 2016 will be difficult, Crist is no longer going to have a high job approval rating. The last Florida Governor to get elected US Senate- Bob Graham- unseated Republican Incumbent Paula Hawkins who was part of the 1980 Reagan Revolution. 
553  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 19, 2009, 08:02:26 am
In 1998 when Carol Mosely Braun narrowly lost to Peter Fitzgerald.
George Ryan narrowly won the Governors Race against Glenn Poshard.
In 2010- The Democratic Nominee ,whether is Pat Quinn or Dan Hynes is going to win the 2010 IL Governors Race by a double digit margin.
In 1998- Republican IL AG Jim Ryan and IL Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka won re-election by a double digit/landslide margin.  The open seats were Secretary of State which Democrat Jesse White won by a landslide margin and Comptroller- which Dan Hynes won by a landslide margin.
2010- Democratic IL AG Lisa Madigan and IL Secretary of State Jesse White are running for re-election- They are going to win by a landslide margin. Which candidate is going to get the most votes statewide.  Regarding the open Treasurer and Comptrollers position. Democrats are going to win both of these positions by a wide margin.
Because Democrats are going to win every statewide elected office in IL- Kirk will have a tough time winning.
554  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2010 senate prediction on: August 18, 2009, 02:34:48 pm
With the exception of 1986,1990,1996 and 2006 and 2008- 1 or 2 Democratic Incumbents lost re-election.
1988- Jack Melcher(MT), 1992- Fowler(GA),and Sanford (NC), 1994- Wofford(PA),and Sasser(TN), 1998 - Mosely Braun (IL), 2000 - Robb (VA). 2002  Cleland -GA ,Carnahan-MO, and 2004- Daschle- SD.

Chris Dodd- CT will probally be the only Democratic Incumbent that loses his seat but it will be a narrow margin like the Daschle/Thune race.  All other vulnerable or so called vulnerable Democratic incumbents- Lincoln-AR,Boxer-CA, Bennett-CO, Reid-NV,Gillibrand-NY,Dorgan-ND if Hoevan runs, Specter/Sestak-PA, Murray-WA and Feingold-WI will get re-elected.

That leaves us DE and IL.
DE becomes a Tossup if Castle runs- other than that - Safe Democratic.
IL is going to be like the 1996 NJ US Senate Race between Bob Torricelli and Dick Zimmer- an open seat Senate Race to replace Bill Bradley. It was the most closely watched and expensive US Senate Race in history- Despite all of that Torrecelli won by a 10point margin.

On the GOP side. The open seats in MO,OH,and NH and possibly KY are like the 2008 US Senate Races in VA,NM,and CO- Strong Democratic Candidates vs Weak GOP Candidates.

FL is Republican because of Charlie Crist.  KS is a Republican State- Had Sebelius ran it would have been a Tossup at Best. 

Regarding Vulnerable GOP incumbents- NC- Burr- It is a Curse Seat- Obama's narrow victory, Hagan's upset victory over Dole- Burr is a first term who won in 2004 because of GWBush's coattails.

The biggest upset will be Vitter-LA losing.
555  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 18, 2009, 01:55:43 pm
As I mentioned before- The Giannoulias vs Kirk race is going to be like the Hillary Clinton vs Rick Lazio 2000 NY US Senate Race.

Kirk is going to be Rick Lazio- a Moderate to Conservative US Congressman from a Democratic leaning suburban  congressional district. Lazio represented a NYC Suburban Congressional District. Kirk represents a Chicago Suburban Congressional District.
Giannoulias is going to be Hillary Clinton- A polarizing Democratic elected official.

Hillary won the 2000 NY US Senate Race by a 55-42 percent margin by winning NYC with at least 75% of the popular vote.  Cutting into the  Lazio's base in Upstate NY getting at least 45%. and 45% in Long Island.

Giannoulias is going to get at least 75% of the popular vote in Chicago.  (40% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 50% of the popular vote in Chicago Suburbs (20% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 45% of the popular vote in NW and Downstate Illinios (40% of the population.)

Giannoulias is going to win by a 57-42 percent margin.
Giannoulias will have not only Barack Obama, but the Daley Machine, the Madigan Machine, and the Hynes Machine.

If we were to determine the 2010 IL US Senate Race based on Congressional Districts.
Giannoulias will win the CBC Districts 1,2,and 7 with at least 85% of the popular.
Giannoulias will win the CHC District 4 (Guitteriez) by at least 80% of the popular vote.
Giannoulias will get at least 65% of the popular vote in IL-5(Rostenkowski,Blagojovich,and Emanuel) and IL-9(Schakowsky). Northern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 60% of the popular vote in IL-3(Lipinski) Southern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 50% of the popular vote in IL- 10(Kirk's District) and IL-11(Halverson).
Giannoulias will get at least 45% of the popular vote in IL-6,IL-8,IL-13,IL-14 and IL-16- NW Collar County Districts.
Giannoulias will get at least 55% of the popular vote in IL-12(Costello)-Downstate) and IL-17(Lane Evans/Phil Hare)- Rock Island/Springfield District.
Giannoulias will get at least 40% of the popular vote in IL-15(Tim Johnson),IL-18(Ray LaHood, Aaron Schrock,) and IL-19(John Shimkus).

556  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL? on: August 18, 2009, 09:48:33 am
In states like California, Connecticut,Delaware, Illinios, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, winning a US Senate  nowadays is tough for Republicans.

In order for a Republican to win a US Senate Seat in these states. The Democrat needs to be unpopular or corrupt.  ie  Dodd-CT during the 2010 Cycle. Moseley Braun-IL during the 1998 Cycle. Torrecelli-NJ during 2002 when he dropped out.


Giannoulias will do well in Chicago- neutralize Kirk's strength in Collar Counties. Turnout in Downstate IL will be low.  This will be like the Hillary-Lazio 2000 NY race.  The biggest question is how well Giannoulias can play in Downstate IL.
557  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2010 senate prediction on: August 17, 2009, 11:05:31 am
Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to.
AR- Lincoln-D
CA- Boxer-D
CO- Bennet-D wins a full first term.
DE- if Castle does not run.- Beau Biden-D
HI- Inouye-D
IL- Giannoulias-D
IN-Bayh-D
MD- Mikulski-D
NV- Reid-D
NYA/B- Schumer and Gillibrand.
ND- Dorgan-D
OR- Wyden-D
VT- Leahy-D
WA- Murray-D
WI- Feingold-D
Democrats are likely to lose
CT- Dodd is trailing Simmons- if Dodd steps aside- Democratic retention.
DE- if Castle runs- Tossup.
PA- it depends on how the Democratic primary turnsout.
Republican seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- Shelby-R
AK- Murkowski-R
AZ- McCain-R
FL- Crist-R
GA- Isakson-R
ID- Crapo-R
IA- Grassley-R
KS- Moran/Tiahrt-R
KY- Grayson-R- by a narrow margin.
LA- Vitter-R
NC- Burr-R by a narrow margin.
OK- Coburn-R
SC- DeMint-R
SD- Thune-R
TX- Republicans win in Special Election.
UT- Bennett-R

Republicans will lose
MO- Carnahan-D
NH- Hodes-D
OH- Fisher/Brunner-D

KY and NC will be the wave US Senate Elections.

NC will be the biggest shocker race.
558  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races on: August 17, 2009, 10:44:34 am
Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to
AR- Beebe-D
CO- Ritter-D
IL- Quinn/Hynes-D
IA- Culver-D
ME- 
MD- O'Malley-D
MA- Patrick-D- narrow win.
NH- Lynch-D
NM- Denish-D
NY- if either Cuomo or Suozzi is the Democratic nominee.
OH- Strickland-D
OR- Kitzhaber or Bradbury-D
PA- if Wagner or Onorato is the Democratic nominee
WI- Lawton-D
WY-if Freudenthal-D is permited to run again.
Democrats will lose or likely lose.
KS- Brownback-R
MI- Cox-R
NY- if Paterson is the Democratic Nominee and Guiliani is the GOP nominee.
OK- Fallin-R
PA- if Knox is the Democratic nominee
TN- Wamp-R
WY- if Freudenthal-D is barred from running again.
Republican Seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- if Moore is not the GOP nominee.
AK- Parnell-R
CT- Rell-R
GA- Oxedine-R
ID- Otter-R
NE- Heineman-R
SC- Barrett-R
SD- Duragard-R
TX- Hutchison/Perry-R
UT- Herbert-R
VT- Douglas-R
Republicans will lose or likely lose
AL- if Moore is the GOP nominee
AZ- Goddard-D
CA- Brown-D
FL- Sink-D
HI- Abercrombie-D
MN- Rybak-D
NV- Whoever the Democratic nominee is will defeat Jim Gibbons
RI- Tossup between Chaffee-I vs Democratic Nominee. Republican Nominee is irrevelant.








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