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October 21, 2014, 07:01:51 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NC: PPP: Hagan +3 on: October 20, 2014, 10:50:22 am
Hagan 46, Tillis 43.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: October 19, 2014, 03:56:05 pm
Is there any good reason for voting for I-1351?
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2014 Major League Baseball prediction and discussion thread. on: October 18, 2014, 09:30:49 pm
I hope KC wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if they pulled a 2007 Rockies.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Oxford School of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts IV on: October 18, 2014, 03:22:35 pm
I'm rather surprised that of all my posts was put here.

I'm not sure what the critique here is, though. Because a genre of music isn't popular anymore, it's bad to like it (not that I especially like nu metal to begin with save Linkin Park and a few others)? Should we call out anyone who isn't enamored with current artists? Can I say, "This isn't 1972, champ" if someone likes Pink Floyd? Is there something innately and uniquely horrible about nu metal, and if so, doesn't that contradict the idea that there can't be something innately and uniquely horrible about hip-hop (without regard to race)?
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rank Each State on the Spectrum on: October 18, 2014, 12:38:16 pm
If Louisiana is Populist leaning conservative, then Arkansas should be as well.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Scott Brown: If Romney was president, there'd be no concern about Ebola on: October 17, 2014, 11:03:03 pm
I feel the important implication here is that Romney caused ebola.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Is hating hip-hop racist? on: October 17, 2014, 05:15:21 pm
What if you generally hate hip-hop/rap except when used with rock or another genre, e.g. nu metal?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul contradicts health officials; calls Ebola "incredibly contagious" on: October 16, 2014, 11:00:27 pm
What a disgusting, dangerous POS.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA: Ernst endorses fetal "personhood" on: October 16, 2014, 06:11:59 pm
FF. Thankfully, I'd already endorsed her on my map.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will the CO GOP finally break the hex this year (Senate/Gov?) on: October 16, 2014, 12:46:09 pm
I may change my mind, but I still think both Dems pull it out.
11  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Is It Unfair that Caucasians Are So Diverse? on: October 16, 2014, 11:50:42 am
Hey guys, do you know how we could make other races better? Forcedly interbreed them with whites to make them more white.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Can Greg Abbott Be Knocked Down Once Again? on: October 15, 2014, 07:40:47 pm
Junk poll!
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Oxford School of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts IV on: October 15, 2014, 12:55:14 pm
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200468.0
14  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should it be legal to request donors by race for artificial insemination? on: October 15, 2014, 11:54:32 am
I don't believe in artificial insemination but what race they are makes no difference.
Why not? Even if you disapprove of extramarital sex what difference does it make if two cells get mixed around in a jar?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholicism
I'm actually interested in his (or rather, his Church's) reasoning.

The reasoning is that artificial insemination (not IVF) unnaturally disassociates sex from procreation just as contraception does. IVF destroys embryos which is essentially equivalent to an abortion if you accept life beginning at conception, in addition to the aforementioned disassociation.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3. on: October 13, 2014, 07:03:27 pm
People keep missing my sarcasm... I am well aware of the problems of basing virtually anything on two observations. I'd be a poor economist if that weren't the case.

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?

Of course it is in this context. The slope up when where one is tends to increase as you close the gap. That is of course related to fundamentals. Booker in NJ has lost a ton of points in lead, a rather steep decline. Will he lose based on extrapolations? Of course not. Now Virginia, where the same thing is happening, with different fundamentals, is a tad more interesting. Smiley

I would imagine that any state "wants" to regress to its conditional mean more or less and the creation of "momentum" can create a positive feedback loop to accelerate that process. There is more than ample reason to suggest that Roberts could accelerate his rise moreso than Orman could do in a reversed situation. I was merely pointing out that the here-to-date closing would not be sufficient for a Roberts victory.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3. on: October 13, 2014, 05:24:04 pm
Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Shut down the EPA? on: October 13, 2014, 03:17:14 pm
Environmental regulation is one area with extremely well established justification in economics. There is little objective reason to complete do away with such a regulatory authority or worse: make it at the whim of voters.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3. on: October 13, 2014, 03:12:51 pm
Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-SUSA/Denver Post: Hick +1 on: October 13, 2014, 02:52:49 pm

Different poll: Yours ended on October 8th, OP's on October 12th
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Republicans: What faction do you belong to? on: October 13, 2014, 11:06:52 am
If I were a Republican, I'd be in the Religious Right, but it would be an awkward fit.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Are you excited for Interstellar? on: October 13, 2014, 10:59:37 am
Definitely. I'm going to see it at the Pacific Science Center in Seattle if I can. It's a real IMAX there (70 mm).
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which GOP governor do you most want to see lose? on: October 13, 2014, 10:51:13 am
Not exactly a Democrat, but Walker. I actually kinda like Brownback.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you consider the preceding poster a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? on: October 13, 2014, 10:48:58 am
Liberal, but not overly so by Atlas standards.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SD-Harper: Rounds +4 over Weiland, Weiland +10 over Pressler on: October 13, 2014, 10:44:47 am
BTW: Is this an internal for Rounds because it says "TO: Interested Parties" ?

I don't think so. On Harper's website, they usually post if they did the poll on behalf of someone. They didn't list anyone for this one.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would an atheist president bother you? on: October 12, 2014, 03:15:51 pm
Possibly, but not necessarily.
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