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May 30, 2015, 01:46:59 pm
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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans are now majority Pro-Choice again on: May 29, 2015, 09:09:48 pm
Looks like the poll bounces around a lot. I wouldn't read much into it other than that the pro-life and pro-choice sides are as ever pretty close in support.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News is pretending that Rand Paul doesn't exist on: May 29, 2015, 12:01:35 pm
As should we all.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ron Johnson condemns the "Lego Movie" as anti-business propaganda on: May 29, 2015, 12:00:15 pm
Lord Business is also President Business, though. In the Lego Movie, the government is a corporatist union of government and a monopolist firm. If their portrayal of Lord Business is negative, should not that imply a demonization of both big business and of government?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Connecticut election results 1922-Present on: May 28, 2015, 12:38:41 pm
I'm still waiting for town results for primary elections (especially presidential primaries).
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The last movie you've seen thread 2014 and 2015 on: May 27, 2015, 05:09:55 pm
I saw Tomorrowland today. Really conflicted with this one. I loved a lot about it, but hated almost as much.

Pros:
1) Hugh Laurie was great and a solid anti-villain. I really like it when movies make the antagonist have a point and be good intentioned in their own right.

2) The Paris/Tomorrowland entry scene was beautifully shot and rendered. A clear example of CGI helping the movie along. In general, the cinematography was above average.

3) I actually really liked the message of the movie and wish more people would internalize it. However...

Cons:
1) This may be the most preachy movie I've seen outside of bad Christian movies. Talk about beating a dead horse. I generally liked the message, but virtually everything in the movie was in service to that message. Every conversation in the first third of the movie was based on "positivity" and "hope" and "dreaming" and etc. and so forth. (Anyone who thought Interstellar was on the nose would die watching this)

2) This movie was essentially two hours of Disney fellating itself. Gratuitous Star Wars references, It's a Small World being a portal, Disney itself serving to inspire Frank, etc. Add in the ridiculous physics, laughable mooks, and a cliché Disney finale, and I really start to wonder if this movie couldn't have been so much more if it had been made by a different studio.

3) Gov. Nix's death. Ugh. Just ugh.

4) Every jetpack scene was a horrible CGI-fest of awful.

5) I'm pretty sure the second-fifth or so of this movie was directly copied from Jupiter Ascending

6) Young Frank's acting was pretty bad.

It's probably a 2.5/5, maybe a 3/5. Could have been great, but it really failed to live up to that potential.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Least Favorite County in your state on: May 26, 2015, 12:19:08 am
Benton. The Tri-Cities are the worst.

At least Benton's populated and has actual stores you can shop at if you live in Walla Walla. I've seen some great sights on the Columbia around there. On the other hand, I can't think of a single redeeming quality about Lincoln County, WA. Wahkiakum County is super pointless, too.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 26, 2015, 12:04:51 am
I haven't read the books or any spoilers or anything, but there's like, literally, no chance that a TV show will feature a major character murdering his little girl by burning her alive. Even on Game of Thrones. I wouldn't worry about that at all.

There's a fair chance Selyse burns Shireen on her own.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Congrats, Phil: Santorum 2016 announcement coming on Wednesday on: May 25, 2015, 11:59:28 pm
Hopefully he's in.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Back to the Future was right after all about Hoverboards existing by Oct. 2015 on: May 25, 2015, 03:38:19 pm
That's more like the Green Goblin's glider than a hoverboard.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee defends admitted child molester on: May 24, 2015, 12:39:47 am
What did Huck actually say in the article? He said

Quote
Josh’s actions when he was an underage teen are as he described them himself, ‘inexcusable,’ but that doesn’t mean ‘unforgivable.’

which is 100% correct. Nothing is unforgivable. In fact, I'd say that Huckabee has time and again erred on the side of forgiveness. That's admirable in my book.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is Atlas a right wing forum? on: May 21, 2015, 10:05:32 pm
There are more liberal Christians than conservative Christians here.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Walker leads Rubio, Sanders at 24% on: May 21, 2015, 08:01:49 pm
How is Huckabee polling in double digits?  

The Republicans in WA tend to be pretty conservative. Religious conservatives are prominent in the GOP parts of Whatcom County, the coast, and lots of parts of eastern Washington.

I would have picked Huck, but I wasn't polled, so you can't blame me.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Walker leads Rubio, Sanders at 24% on: May 21, 2015, 03:45:51 pm
Assuming we have a caucus, Sanders has an outside shot of victory.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / WA-PPP: Walker leads Rubio, Sanders at 24% on: May 21, 2015, 11:58:21 am
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WA_52115.pdf

18% Walker
15% Rubio
13% Huckabee
11% Cruz
10% Bush
10% Carson
  6% Christie
  5% Paul
  3% Perry

57% Clinton
24% Sanders
  4% O'Malley
  2% Webb
  1% Chafee
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie: 'You Can't Enjoy Your Civil Liberties If You're In A Coffin' on: May 20, 2015, 09:38:03 am
Christie's not wrong.
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: after the Clipper collapse: time for a ten worst sports defeats thread on: May 19, 2015, 10:06:18 pm
1. Oct. 26, 2002, World Series Game 6: Angels 6, Giants 5. Everyone I know knows what happened here. I was seven years old and infatuated with baseball and convinced that my team was going to win. The Giants were up 5-0 with eight outs to go and then Felix Rodriguez got the ball and everything fell apart. That was Robb Nen's last game of his career, because he gave his arm to the team down the stretch and the team came up empty and he was never healthy again. Of course the Giants lost again the next day, but nobody remembers that. Barry Bonds, the best hitter of all time, never got to win a World Series. I don't think a sporting event can ever again mean as much to me as that one did, now that I'm older and I've seen some sports success in my life.

Nah, this is the greatest game in MLB history. It's hard for me to feel bad at all for SF considering their three subsequent WS wins and the fact that Bonds was on that team; he never deserved a ring. It was pretty much the Angels slaying the devil.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Favorite University Series: Pacific Northwest edition on: May 19, 2015, 12:52:09 am
1. EWU
2. Gonzaga
3. UW/WSU (pretty indifferent)
4. Seattle U
5. WWU
6. CWU
.
.
.
7. Evergreen

That's it.
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: after the Clipper collapse: time for a ten worst sports defeats thread on: May 18, 2015, 04:32:15 pm
My most painful personally would be:

5. MLB: August 1, 2012 (Rangers over Angels)
4. 2009 ALCS, Game 2 (Yankees over Angels)
3. 2005 Rose Bowl (Texas over USC)
2. 2005 ALCS, Game 2 (White Sox over Angels)
1. Super Bowl XLIX (Patriots over Seahawks)
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Apparently Kentucky is a tossup on: May 18, 2015, 02:43:11 pm
The 2012 map had SC as a toss-up all the way to election day. It's just a function of its design.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 18, 2015, 12:27:57 pm
It's not that it's 'shocking', it's that it's mean-spirited. The show's habit of having things like this happen is, obviously, extrapolated from the books, but the extent to which and scope with which the show extrapolates it are overblown to the point of coming across as frankly sickening. Whatever artistic point there is to this, it's been made.

I don't see it that way at all. It's a completely logical and narratively consistent outcome of the choices Sansa made (e.g. not going with Brienne, not lighting the candle, not taking up LF on turning down the wedding, going through with the wedding, not running away despite everyone in the North being on her side, etc.) and Ramsay's established character, and it will likely be the catalyst for several important events in the coming episodes including Theon turning on Ramsay, Sansa understanding that Winterfell is legitimately not safe after being told so, and perhaps even Pink Letter/Stannis/Brienne-related events. Once they started down the Sansa-Ramsay marriage thread, it was inevitable barring extremely drastic changes or really bad writing.
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Estimating Religion from Census Data on: May 14, 2015, 07:52:11 pm
Very cool, and it seems more accurate than the ARDA map. How Catholic are you saying Hispanics are? I would have expected places like East Pasco to be darker shades of red.

Also, do you have a color key?

Hispanics in eastern Washington tend to be more LDS than in other places.

The key is standard Atlas shades (>20%/>30%/etc.) with Red being Catholic, Blue being Protestant, Green being Non-religious, and Yellow being Mormon. The grey area in Benton didn't have any people reporting an ancestry.

Yeah, there's noway that non-religious is a plurality in Watauga County.

Yeah, probably not. As I said, college towns are a bit of a problem, but I'd imagine Watauga isn't hyper-Protestant either. It should probably be similar to the shading of Orange County, NC.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Estimating Religion from Census Data on: May 14, 2015, 06:00:03 pm
Fascinating! Are non-Christian religions being included?

Yes, but they don't have pluralities outside of a few major cities.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Estimating Religion from Census Data on: May 14, 2015, 03:59:17 pm
I think the Pullman area may very well be nonreligious, but I don't think it's as nonreligious as my map shows. However, to get Washington to be 32% nonreligious, you need a lot of those types of areas to show up as green.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Estimating Religion from Census Data on: May 14, 2015, 03:53:36 pm
Does teal/green represent unaffiliated? If so, I'm surprised at Kittitas County in Washington.

Yeah. I think my method may over estimate the non-religious population in college areas. Here's a census tract map for Washington using this method; as you can see, Kittitas being nonreligious is entirely due to Ellensburg and CWU's influence.





Generally, it seems fairly accurate to me. It might overestimate the nonreligious population near military bases (see Fort Lewis and Naval Station Whidbey).
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Estimating Religion from Census Data on: May 14, 2015, 01:18:28 pm
As an extension of my world religion map and in light of the fundamental flaws in ARDA data, I'm attempting to estimate religious affiliation based on only data from the Census/ACS with an eye on finding an adequate model to project to sub-county areas. The single most useful figure available is ancestry data, to which I've attempted to assign each of ~190 ancestries an approximate religious distribution. In light of the recent Pew results, I've tried to create a model that matches their state-by-state results. I also used their results to identify a possible proxy for the variance in the nonreligious distribution: white, never-married males.

The model I've come up with isn't perfect, but I think it's pretty good so far. Here's a county map for the contiguous US:



Compare to this map based on ARDA data:


I'm aware of a few issues, such as not yet having a great proxy for the Jewish population, but if there are any other glaring issues, let me know. When it's adequate, I'll try making some sub-county maps.
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