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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Major League Baseball Predction Thread on: March 11, 2014, 07:00:00 pm
AL East
(3) Tampa Bay
Boston
Baltimore
NY Yankees
Toronto

AL Central
(2) Detroit
(5) Kansas City
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chi White Sox

AL West
(1) Oakland
(4) LA Angels
Texas
Seattle
Houston

NL East
(3) Washington
(4) Atlanta
NY Mets
Philadelphia
Miami

NL Central
(1) St. Louis
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Chi Cubs

NL West
(2) LA Dodgers
(5) Arizona
San Diego
San Francisco
Colorado

Wild Card Round
LA Angels over Kansas City
Arizona over Atlanta

Divisional Round
St. Louis over Arizona
Washington over LA Dodgers
Detroit over Tampa Bay
Oakland over LA Angels

Championship Round
Washington over St. Louis
Detroit over Oakland

World Series
Washington over Detroit
2  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: A Tumblr blogger (D) vs. a foxnews.com commenter (R) on: March 11, 2014, 06:45:35 pm
tumblr bloggers are notorious for long wordy posts about social justice. tumblr blogger wins.

What tumblr posters call "social justice" is nothing of the sort.
3  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What do you find immoral? on: March 07, 2014, 03:33:07 pm
Abortion
Death Penalty
Doctor-assisted suicide
Sex before marriage (or in general outside of)
Divorce
Polygamy
Pornography
Birth control (some types, not all depending on your definition)
Teenage sex (assuming they aren't married)
Homosexuality (the acts associated with it anyway)
Suicide
Stem cell research (if embryonic)
Cloning humans

Everything else listed can be immoral under more specific conditions. I would also add gender-reassignment surgery.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: 2016 Primary Map Thread on: March 06, 2014, 09:10:39 pm
Based on three-poll averages where possible. Cruz is Red, Christie is Blue, Bush is Green, Paul is Yellow, Huckabee is Orange, Ties are in White:



Wisconsin is a Ryan lead but I don't have a color left for him.

20% = lead of 1%
30% = lead of 2-3%
40% = lead of 4-5%
60% = lead of 6-9%
80% = lead of 10%+
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: are you a spoiled , rich urban person? on: March 05, 2014, 04:50:43 pm
Nope, I'm a suburbanist.
6  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Pope Francis: Church could support civil unions on: March 05, 2014, 04:10:29 pm
Of course I'd also welcome church recognition of same-sex unions, but it's more important to not stand in the way of equality before the law, as a first step.

There's very little chance of that happening in the foreseeable future.
7  General Politics / Economics / Fiscal Uncertainty as Regressive Welfare Transfer on: February 04, 2014, 04:57:16 pm
We recently had a job seminar at my university by a professor who may be employed here soon that looked into the welfare effects of fiscal uncertainty on various wealth groups. Their paper finds that eliminating uncertainty over future fiscal policy (i.e. taxes and government spending) in the United States would produce a positive welfare (measured by equivalent variation) transfer to most individuals, but a negative welfare transfer to those in the top 1-5% of wealth. The gap is statistically significant and robust across many specifications, and the negativity of the second derivative d2EV/dy2 is as well. Conversely, we can say that the persistence of fiscal uncertainty is associated with higher welfare levels for the top 1-5% of wealth and lower welfare levels for the bottom 95-99% of wealth compared to an environment with fiscal certainty.

Assuming that the findings of this study are valid and generalizable, can we conclude that a party which primarily represents the interests of the rich should necessarily sow as much uncertainty about the future fiscal situation as possible? It certainly seems like the Republican Party has attempted to do so in recent years, through threats of default, constant claims of higher taxes arising from Democratic policies, etc., though the Democratic Party seems like they often play into the hands of such a strategy through oft murky and occasionally overzealous endeavors.

I suppose the better questions are: Is fiscal certainty or a close approximation of it even possible, both in theory and in practice? If so, being that it is not strictly a Pareto improvement, though it would likely be a Kaldor-Hicks improvement, is it worth attempting? Do the Democrats or any other political group (perhaps the Fed?) have any incentive to actually work toward it as a goal?

Regardless, I found the results of the study quite interesting.
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Did Peyton Manning choke or did the Seahawks D win? on: February 03, 2014, 11:13:34 pm
The Seahawks dominated. No team in the NFL could have beat them yesterday.
9  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: World Religion Map by National Subdivision on: February 03, 2014, 03:03:17 pm
Great work.

The Sub-Saharan African part of the map - with its divisions between denominations - is, well, *interesting*.

EDIT: Speaking of which, where did you get the data? And Furthermore, do you have a blank National subdivision World map to use as a template?

The world map is a modified version of this one. Most of my data sources are listed on the map. If you have a specific country in mind, I can probably find my source again.

Some of the patterns are quite interesting such as the Protestant belt in Central America or the more Buddhist vs. more secular areas of Japan.

But are the non-yellow areas in Japan light browns or light greys? If the latter, realisticidealist, how on earth did your sources distinguish between Buddhist and Shinto practice in Japan to that degree?

I used data from Japan's Statistics Bureau. It appears they counted some people as practicing both Shinto and Buddhism. I'm not sure what their methodology beyond that is, though.
10  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: World Religion Map by National Subdivision on: February 02, 2014, 06:02:46 pm
If you split Christianity into Protestant/Catholic/Orthodox, I'd have done the same thing with Islam and Buddhism (the latter might be more difficult though). Still, amazing work.

I would like to, but the data really isn't there unfortunately.
11  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / World Religion Map by National Subdivision on: February 02, 2014, 05:06:58 pm
I made this recently. It's not perfect as it comes from a multitude of sources stitched together over many different years with different measurement procedures, and I had to adjust some numbers to match sources, but I think overall it is a pretty accurate reflection of reality. I started with the most recent census data for different countries and found other sources to fill in the gaps.

12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of realisticidealist on: December 03, 2013, 05:09:32 pm
I was perfectly ok with this thread never being made. Tongue

Not realistic and naively idealistic.

Would you care to elaborate? I don't see things that I way, obviously. I think I'm fairly realistic about things. I'm well aware that I've painted myself into a corner with no real way out on this forum, that most of my beliefs won't ever be acted upon, that I've grown bitter and cynical, that there are many losing battles I take upon, and that I'm a very hard to like person. I think I'm very idealistic about some things, even things that no one else cares about or understands or agrees with, but I wouldn't use the word na´ve. I generally know when I'm being unrealistic or out there. Still, I suppose I could be wrong with that. We don't see eye-to-eye on many things afleitch, but that doesn't mean that I blindly dismiss what you have to say.

Dropped considerably following his Dubai post.

Eh, I knew I was going out on a limb there. It's true that I like Dubai, but it's mostly a relic of another time in my life and the world really. It's a simplistic view I took then, but I felt that a lot of people in that thread were taking equally simplistic views. Is Dubai one of the greatest cities in the world? Probably not; it doesn't have the history or any number of other things, but there was a time in my life before I knew about its issues when it inspired me. If that's wrong, well then I suppose I'm wrong. We can't always be right about everything. Take solace in that I don't matter at all in the grand scheme of things; heck, I'll probably never even visit Dubai.

Am I a HP? Maybe. I feel like one sometimes. Sometimes it's fun to be the villain. Sometimes it's fun to be the saint. I don't see the point in posting meaningless posts agreeing with people all the time--anyone can do that, and others can do it better than I can--but eventually the mask becomes the face, and I don't know who I am anymore.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rush Limbaugh calls Pope a Marxist... on: December 03, 2013, 01:23:36 pm
The Catholic Church is fundamentally opposed to Marxism, and has essentially always been.

You don't honestly believe Rush Limbaugh (or most Republicans for that matter) has any idea what marxism is, do you?

No, I don't believe Rush Limbaugh has any idea about much of anything remotely intelligent. I was hoping to preempt others on this forum from agreeing blanketly with him despite established history.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rush Limbaugh calls Pope a Marxist... on: December 03, 2013, 01:18:30 pm
The Catholic Church is fundamentally opposed to Marxism, and has essentially always been.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should boner pills be covered by federal dollars? on: December 03, 2013, 01:09:10 pm
In general, elective procedures and medications should not be, no.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / IL-PPP: Christie with 5-point lead on: December 03, 2013, 12:14:37 pm
18% Christie
13% Cruz
12% Bush
10% Paul
9% Ryan
7% Walker
6% Rubio
4% Santorum
4% Jindal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_IL_12313.pdf
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: ESPN SportsNation Maps. on: December 03, 2013, 01:30:08 am
Favorite to win the Super Bowl - Blue: Seattle, Red: Denver, Green: Other


Best Team in NFL - Blue: Seattle, Red: Denver, Green: Other
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of 20RP12 on: December 02, 2013, 09:59:45 pm
I have him on ignore, so...
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Tumblr on: December 02, 2013, 09:58:08 pm
FS, love being a slut on it with my friends...which is more than can be done on Facebook

...i was unaware that you are female

Men can be sluts too...
20  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: How High Church/Low Church are You? on: December 02, 2013, 06:08:51 pm
Relatively High Church though incense makes my head hurt, and I don't care for the use of Latin that much. I suppose I'm probably less High Church-inclined than your average practicing Catholic. Comes with the lack of a Catholic upbringing, I'd presume.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: This video was apparently created by krazen on: December 02, 2013, 06:02:29 pm
Can we please ban the term "Big Labor"?

Only if all "Big _____" terms are banned.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Tumblr on: December 02, 2013, 05:55:52 pm
One of the worst places on the internet.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: do you use reddit regularly? on: December 02, 2013, 05:52:13 pm
Forumites would love /r/mapporn

Not really. There are some interesting maps there (including my own that get posted from time to time by other people), but mostly it's rather bland postings from Wikipedia, reposts, or left-wing drivel.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Maryland on: December 02, 2013, 05:19:04 pm
It's the richest state in the US, so it's got that going for it. Rather bland topographically, though. I lean toward FS.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you have supported... on: December 02, 2013, 04:16:00 pm
Definitely.
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