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October 01, 2016, 07:08:20 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: September 29, 2016, 02:46:02 pm
2016 Oregon, as much as I can do:





I should have NJ and hopefully NY done fairly soon.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Trump equivalent? on: September 29, 2016, 10:32:30 am
These are learned people as a rule, and learned people eschew demagogues for the unreliability of demagogues.

Funny, as plenty of research shows better educated people are more likely to fall for scams due to illusory superiority and the Dunning-Kruger effect.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich Attacks Trump on: September 28, 2016, 04:56:20 pm
So Kasich is done in 2020 for not endorsing Trump while Cruz is done in 2020 for endorsing him? What?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: September 28, 2016, 01:48:53 pm
While I'm waiting to finish off the 2016 maps, I've started on a 2008 national precinct map (to the extent available) for both parties, and a 2012 GOP map. Here's what I have for the 2008 Dem race so far:



If you want closer looks at some states, go here.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the first debate? on: September 26, 2016, 09:57:26 pm
No real movement one way or the other.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dave's Mock Election 2016 is now open!!! on: September 26, 2016, 09:24:21 am
People who have Atlas accounts but not Forum accounts can vote, I believe.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What sports do you watch? on: September 25, 2016, 09:16:48 pm
My first and only sports love is baseball; I'm a lifelong Angels fan who watches about 75% of the season. My wife is a lifelong Seattle Seahawks fan, so I end up watching most of their games as well. I like football well enough and follow a few college teams, but baseball is my sport.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Was the election of 1968 more modern than the election of 1988? on: September 25, 2016, 05:15:32 pm
State-level correlation of Dem vote
2012-1968: 0.7276
2012-1988: 0.7339

Pretty close, but 1988 was closer to 2012 than 1968.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Newspaper Endorsement Thread on: September 25, 2016, 03:36:53 pm
At this point, I'd be honestly surprised if a newspaper actually endorsed Trump.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Josť FernŠndez dead at 24 on: September 25, 2016, 12:00:23 pm
RIP Jose. Could've been the next Kershaw.

And his girlfriend is pregnant, too. Hopefully the Marlins take good care of his child.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump appoints Santorum as a policy advisor on: September 25, 2016, 01:41:51 am
Cool.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Realisticidealist's 2012 Precinct Map Thread on: September 23, 2016, 11:58:52 am
Good job on all these. What program do you use to make them?

Also, while the other map does not have a color key this one does (upper left) and it says "REFERENDUM 74 (2012)".

I use ArcMap. That map has the color key as it was for my personal webpage whereas the Atlas-colored map was not (while I prefer the Atlas scheme, I recognize that the rest of the world does not).
13  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Why does the 2008 mock presidential election result look so realistic? on: September 22, 2016, 08:44:09 pm
Way more people voted in the 2008 mock election than any of the others. I believe it was brigaded by a conservative website?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How on earth is trump only down 2 in WI and tied in NV if he is down 7 nation? on: September 21, 2016, 07:31:13 pm
Realignment's a'comin'
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: LA-Southern Media and Opinion Research/The Times-Picayune: Trump+16 on: September 21, 2016, 07:29:07 pm
Did they poll in French?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / WY-AL: DFM Research: Cheney up by sixteen on: September 21, 2016, 02:29:07 pm
https://www.scribd.com/document/324811878/WY-AL-DFM-Research-for-Ryan-Greene-Sept-2016

Cheney 46, Greene 30
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / WY: DFM Research: Trump leads by 35 on: September 21, 2016, 02:25:21 pm
New Poll: Wyoming President by DFM Research on 2016-09-11

Summary: D: 19%, R: 54%, I: 12%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Don King uses The "N word" at rally, Trump laughs at it on: September 21, 2016, 02:22:52 pm
He's black tho
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Realisticidealist's 2012 Precinct Map Thread on: September 20, 2016, 06:04:25 pm
Sedgwick County, KS?

All of KS:

20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Realisticidealist's 2012 Precinct Map Thread on: September 20, 2016, 01:13:10 pm
Huh, the precincts comprising much of the UMass campus and Amherst Center are incrementally less Democratic than the rest of Amherst.

The UMass precincts saw a higher vote for Johnson and Stein than the rest of the town (about double).
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Realisticidealist's 2012 Precinct Map Thread on: September 20, 2016, 12:22:01 pm
Can you have Essex County, Massachusetts results by precinct please?

How about the whole state?

22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of 2 major third parties? on: September 19, 2016, 06:41:01 pm
Unfavorable to both.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate and Votecastr to break election results embargo with live projections on election day on: September 17, 2016, 12:09:23 pm
Gauging turnout can be helpful but it doesn't tell you much if you're just guessing what the preference of the voters who do turnout is.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Clinton's bodyguards should be disarmed; let's see what happens to her on: September 17, 2016, 11:38:15 am
This story is desperate, overblown BS. Only someone dropped on their head as a child could honestly interpret this as a death threat.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Clinton loses, is she the national version of Martha Coakley? on: September 14, 2016, 11:12:42 pm
she'd be the 1990s Buffalo Bills too

Pretty much no one in US politics could ever be more 90s Bills-y than Williams Jennings Bryan.
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