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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-Trafalgar: Rock +3 on: July 28, 2017, 10:09:21 am
Kid Rock as a Republican could probably retain the vast majority of Obama-Trump voters in Michigan.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: July 14, 2017, 11:01:58 am
West Virgina (some counties didn't give precinct breakdowns):

I was just looking through this thread and noticed the red spots in what I believe is the northeastern corner of McDowell County (in southern WV). Any idea why that area voted for Clinton?

The town of Keystone is about 65% black.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: July 14, 2017, 10:36:31 am
DDHQ is having trouble paying for hosting now that we're past special election season.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump destroys CNN in new tweet on: July 02, 2017, 12:29:15 pm
Greatest tweet in presidential history.

Congratulations. You have forfeited what little more Authority you had for your arguments in join the club of Absolut doofuses like Ghost Monkey. Welcome to your new internet Club of losers to a once at least semi-respectable poster.

I'm sure Pope Francis would be very proud.

Oh come on. The tweet is a joke, but the far bigger joke are the  histrionic cries that this is somehow "violence-inciting" or beneath the president or an attack against freedom of the press. Politics has become one big joke in this country, and we've made it that way. When I laugh at Trump, I'm also laughing at myself and you and all of us. We deserve all of this; the least I can do is find it entertaining.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump destroys CNN in new tweet on: July 02, 2017, 10:53:06 am
Greatest tweet in presidential history.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post IRV Ballots for the top five candidates in 2016 on: July 01, 2017, 06:20:26 pm
Kasich
Sanders
Trump
Clinton
Cruz
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Universal Basic Income vs. Negative Income Tax? on: July 01, 2017, 11:38:15 am
A classical NIT preserves incentives to work while a UBI does not.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Electoral Map of "People Who Were Born There" on: June 29, 2017, 02:56:32 pm
I imagine that CO, NV and VA would flip most likely.

NV would go from 6 to 3 EVs, too.

KY, WV, MS, AL, MI, PA, IA, MO would become relatively stronger in the electoral college and boost Trump.

Why would NV go down in EVs? Non-citizens already count towards apportionment.

Only 25% of Nevada residents were born there.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: IF you had to pick one, which gender should the next Doctor be? on: June 29, 2017, 02:47:21 pm
Attack helicopter. Then the show might actually be interesting.
10  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Religiosity poll on: June 29, 2017, 02:42:19 pm
All 1's
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Breaking News: House adopts AUMF repeal on: June 29, 2017, 01:31:51 pm
Why wouldn't Trump just veto it?
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 24 question political philosophy test on: June 29, 2017, 11:58:01 am
E: 14
S: 31

According to your scale, this makes me a "Christian Democrat" which is accurate, I guess.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted if the tickets were reversed? on: June 29, 2017, 10:04:51 am
1912: Hiram Johnson
1916: Thomas Marshall
1920: Franklin Roosevelt
1924: Charles Bryan
1928: Charles Curtis
1932: Charles Curtis
1936: Frank Knox
1940: Charles McNary
1944: Harry Truman
1948: Earl Warren
1952: Richard Nixon
1956: Richard Nixon
1960: Lyndon Johnson
1964: Hubert Humphrey
1968: Edmund Muskie
1972: Spiro Agnew
1976: Bob Dole
1980: George H.W. Bush
1984: George H.W. Bush
1988: Lloyd Bentsen
1992: Al Gore
1996: Al Gore
2000: Joe Lieberman
2004: Jon Edwards
2008: Joe Biden
2012: Joe Biden
2016: Mike Pence
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Which city would you rather live in? on: June 28, 2017, 02:13:58 pm
I'd prefer virtually any city in the US to New York.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 28, 2017, 09:01:22 am
Christ, there's a lot of ignorance of academic economics is this thread.

It is not peer reviewed & I don't why it should even be discussed. Forget the good aspects,non-peer reviewed studies are largely considered junk in the academic world!

This is so incredibly wrong it makes my head hurt. Working papers (especially NBER working papers, which this was) are the most commonly discussed and covered type of economic paper, mostly due to the fact that they tend to be very high quality and publishing in economics takes forever. From the time a paper is done being written to publication can take years in economics; journals take forever even on the most basic desk rejection. Econ working papers are often better than the published versions of the same paper and receive more citations. Further, econ isn't the only field where working papers are the lingua franca; math and many of the hard sciences use extensive commenting on working papers through arXiv and the like.

Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed.  

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

The UW paper is clearly superior to the Berkeley paper given that UW replicated Berkeley's results and then showed why they painted an incomplete picture of the situation. UW simply had better data than Berkeley; their methodologies were barely any different! Berkeley's hemming and hawing is the academic equivalent of being a sore loser.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 27, 2017, 03:37:14 pm
The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

Solved

Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.

NIT?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 27, 2017, 03:33:12 pm
The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

Solved

Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: California assembly leader shelves single payer bill on: June 27, 2017, 03:24:36 pm
People might want to read this thread on why it was shelved before bitching about Democrats not being liberal enough.

https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/878474055233523712

I can't see single-payer surviving long in a state like CA (or WA) where voters can directly decide tax policy.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is it hypocritical of me to listen to this song? on: June 27, 2017, 03:15:34 pm
Heaven forbid a Christian band take the Christian position on abortion. Roll Eyes
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals on: June 27, 2017, 03:05:46 pm
Didn't  this study basically a "control" out of its ass?

That's how synthetic controls work. It's a pretty common and recognized method for studying discrete policy changes. The methodology is pretty solid.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SC allows partial travel ban pending appeal on: June 26, 2017, 10:14:54 am
Apparently this decision was 6 to 3, meaning there was a liberal justice who supported this move.

All nine justices supported at least partial reinstatement. The three dissenters wanted full reinstatement.

So probably Alito, Gorsuch, and Thomas?

Yes, I believe so.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SC allows partial travel ban pending appeal on: June 26, 2017, 10:10:57 am
Apparently this decision was 6 to 3, meaning there was a liberal justice who supported this move.

All nine justices supported at least partial reinstatement. The three dissenters wanted full reinstatement.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bidenís dust up with hedge fund manager Bill Ackman on: June 24, 2017, 11:19:22 pm
Ackman has a point...
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Stephen Colbert win the White House? on: June 24, 2017, 06:05:27 pm
Ugh. He should've ran back in 2008, not now.

Didn't he get votes in the South Carolina Republican Primary in 2012?

2008 was when he actually tried to get on the SC ballot. In 2012, he had his fans vote for Herman Cain instead.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Minnesota stay blue on: June 24, 2017, 06:01:31 pm
I guess a better question is how come the Iron Range counties didn't flip to the Republicans like every other white working class Democrat area in the country?

Most of the Iron Range townships did flip. The only parts that didn't were tourist-y (Cook County is not working class, for example) or near Duluth, which is more urban.
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