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October 26, 2014, 02:01:23 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: New CBS/NYT/YouGov polls tomorrow morning on: Today at 01:38:22 am
I don't know if I'd say YouGov is biased against Dems as much as their polls are just really erratic and often cut against current conventional wisdom, partially due to their large sampling period. Their results can be lagging compared to most polls.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ted Cruz staffer trolls hard on Twitter on: October 25, 2014, 01:35:00 am


and ebola

You forgot Steve Jobs.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Soouth Florida to become its own state? on: October 25, 2014, 12:28:44 am
Anybody got any data on how each state would vote in the 2012 prezzy/2010 gov elections?

2012 Pres:
South Florida - Obama 54.1%, Romney 44.9%
North Florida - Romney 57.1%, Obama 41.6%

2010 Gov:
South Florida - Sink 50.7%, Scott 46.2%
North Florida - Scott 53.7%, Sink 42.3%
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee the favorite to win the Adelson primary? on: October 25, 2014, 12:06:12 am
There is not a single person who did  not vote for Romney, that would vote for him. He appeals to no one.

This is unrealistic. Huckabee and Romney appeal to vastly different groups. Huckabee and Romney would attract about as different sets of voters as 2 consecutive Republican nominees could.

I would strongly consider voting for Huckabee but would never vote for Romney.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Another School Shooting north of Seattle on: October 24, 2014, 02:16:31 pm
Only fifteen minutes from my home. Yikes.

EDIT: Apparently my brother-in-law's wife's brother teaches there. He's okay, though.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / School shooting in Marysville, Washington on: October 24, 2014, 01:50:14 pm
There was a shooting at a high school near my hometown. Up to eight people, including the shooter may have been shot.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2014 Major League Baseball prediction and discussion thread. on: October 24, 2014, 12:06:05 pm
Maddon opts out from Rays
8  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of Family International on: October 24, 2014, 12:01:21 pm
what
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2014 Major League Baseball prediction and discussion thread. on: October 24, 2014, 01:39:33 am
I think it's the saddest thing that Tim Lincecum is just a few months separated from throwing a freakin' no-hitter and he's been reduced to a middle-relief/mop-up role.

dallas braden, dude

Or Philip Humber
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread (US Domestic) on: October 23, 2014, 08:27:05 pm
Not New York! Now it's a real crisis!
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Washington Initiatives 591 and 194 on: October 23, 2014, 02:06:26 am
I voted No/Yes on my ballot. 591 in paranoid fuel while 594 levels the playing field on gun purchases. If we're going to have background checks on gun purchases, it doesn't make any sense to have them on only some types of sales and not others.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of wormyguy on: October 22, 2014, 03:08:22 pm
I respect him more than most libertarians on this forum.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / NH: Public Policy Polling: Hassan by double-digits on: October 22, 2014, 02:20:23 pm
New Poll: New Hampshire Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-10-21

Summary: D: 53%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Top 10 most interesting races on: October 22, 2014, 01:28:00 pm
Senate?

Kansas, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Georgia, Louisiana, South Dakota, Arkansas, New Hampshire, and Kentucky

Senate and Gov?

Kansas Sen, Alaska Gov, Kansas Gov, Maine Gov, Wisconsin Gov, Alaska Sen, Colorado Sen, Iowa Sen, Florida Gov, Georgia Sen
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CO: Suffolk University: Beauprez up slightly on: October 22, 2014, 01:13:14 pm
New Poll: Colorado Governor by Suffolk University on 2014-10-21

Summary: D: 43%, R: 45%, I: 4%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: RIP Udall on: October 22, 2014, 01:09:03 pm
Ouch
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How partisan are you in your voting? on: October 22, 2014, 12:48:06 pm
I always vote based on the individual, but my ballots tend to be pretty split with perhaps a slight Dem lean. It's easier for Republicans to piss me off than Democrats, I guess, especially in this state.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why shouldn't we expect the same polling errors in 2014 colorado as in 2010 CO? on: October 22, 2014, 12:08:52 pm
While PPP's final polls are generally quite accurate, they do occasionally miss the mark. See WA Sen 2010, NV Sen 2010, IL Gov 2010, and their entire last 2010 Alaska poll. In each case they called the wrong winner with an error of at least 6 percentage points. They've had some other large errors that didn't call the wrong winner: MO 2012 Sen (12 points too R), CO 2010 Gov (10 points too "R"), ME 2010 Gov (10 points too R), NH 2010 Sen (8 points too D), ME 2012 Sen (8 points too R), MI 2012 Sen (8 points too R), NH 2012 Gov (8 points too R), etc.

Among polls where PPP missed by 6+ points since 2010, 80% were biased against Democrats/Independents and 20% were biased against Republicans. Of the 21 polls biased against Republicans, 76% were off by 4 points or fewer; of the 45 polls biased against Democrats, 60% were off by 4 points or fewer.

In all Senate, Governor, and Presidential contests from 2010 on, PPP calls the incorrect winner with their last poll 9.9% of the time. Excluding Presidential contests, that rises to 13.7% of the time. Of the 24 races where the results was between +5/-5, PPP missed the winner 25% of the time. The only incorrect call favoring the Republicans was 2010 Florida Governor.

Going back to 2010 (71 polls), the mean final PPP poll missed by 4 points, the median by 3 points. The mean and median bias was 2 points too Republican. Going back through 2008 (102 polls), the mean final PPP poll missed by 3.6 points, the median still by 3 points. The mean bias was 1.6 points too Republican, the median 1.5 points too Republican.

While they do better than other pollsters, they are hardly infallible.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How Hard will Monica Wehby get Pounded? on: October 22, 2014, 10:12:26 am
Pro-choice Republicans are the definition of worthless, so hopefully she'll lose by a lot.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / IA: Monmouth University: Branstad up over twenty on: October 22, 2014, 10:08:21 am
New Poll: Iowa Governor by Monmouth University on 2014-10-21

Summary: D: 37%, R: 58%, I: 3%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
21  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Which U.S. Census divisions would the previous poster perform best and worst in? on: October 21, 2014, 11:40:24 pm
Mountain
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NC: PPP: Hagan +3 on: October 20, 2014, 10:50:22 am
Hagan 46, Tillis 43.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: October 19, 2014, 03:56:05 pm
Is there any good reason for voting for I-1351?
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2014 Major League Baseball prediction and discussion thread. on: October 18, 2014, 09:30:49 pm
I hope KC wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if they pulled a 2007 Rockies.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Oxford School of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts IV on: October 18, 2014, 03:22:35 pm
I'm rather surprised that of all my posts was put here.

I'm not sure what the critique here is, though. Because a genre of music isn't popular anymore, it's bad to like it (not that I especially like nu metal to begin with save Linkin Park and a few others)? Should we call out anyone who isn't enamored with current artists? Can I say, "This isn't 1972, champ" if someone likes Pink Floyd? Is there something innately and uniquely horrible about nu metal, and if so, doesn't that contradict the idea that there can't be something innately and uniquely horrible about hip-hop (without regard to race)?
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