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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Changing Faces of the Presidency on: July 08, 2012, 10:30:12 am
Author's Note: If you would like a detailed piece on any side election I mentioned (i.e., Chris Christie's close 2013 re-election), let me know and I will post the details of that election too.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Changing Faces of the Presidency on: July 08, 2012, 12:19:23 am
The Republicans

For many Republicans, 2016 is the year where the GOP gets to have its fair shot at making history with its presidential preference. By all measures, this year's field is among the most crowded in history, and surely its most diverse.

Former Virginia Governor and 2012 GOP Vice Presidential nominee Bob McDonnell is a natural frontrunner for his party's nomination in 2016. He secured the endorsement of Mitt Romney and has hired many former Romney operatives, allowing McDonnell to surpass many of his opponents in fundraising. McDonnell, who says that he will compete in each of the January primary contests, has had few gaffes on the trail and is believed by Republican operatives to be a top-choice candidate for the post.

Chris Christie, in his second term as New Jersey's governor is giving Bob McDonnell a run for his money for the Republican nomination. Christie has focused his campaign efforts on New Hampshire, where he hopes to stave off the "candidate backed by corn" in Iowa. With a lot of support, comes a lot of enemies as well, and Christie has made some in the Republican Party's religious wing. Before his closer-than-expected re-election in 2013 over former Governor and State Senator Richard Codey, same sex marriage was passed in New Jersey. Fearing retribution from liberals and moderates in an off-year election cycle, Christie largely ignored the issue, refusing to attend fundraisers and other events promoting the illegalization of marriage equality. Despite this setback, Christie has raised the most out of any contender, leads national polls, but struggles in early state polls.

New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez squeaked out a re-election victory in 2014 and has been on the campaign trail for president ever since. Despite lower name recognition than McDonnell or Christie, Martinez has been the most active candidate, hoping to pull a "Santorum" in states like Iowa because of her staunchly conservative position on social issues. Martinez has been a leading figure in the attempts to overturn same-sex marriage and civil unions in western states. In 2014, the National Organization of Marriage named Martinez "Governor of the Year."

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan tossed his hat into the presidential ring shortly after his opponent Susana Martinez. But Ryan's controversial budgets and campaign finance scandals have served his campaign major setbacks. Recently, Republican insiders in Washington were surveyed, and agreed that Ryan was the most likely to drop out of the race before the first contest.

  Kentucky Senator Rand Paul generates much money and buzz, but little substantive support in terms of endorsements or recent polls given to likely Republican primary voters. Many expect that Paul will fare just slightly better than his father, Ron Paul

Eric Cantor did not run and threw his support to Governor McDonnell. Senator Marco Rubio had planned to run, but serious campaign finance allegations and other issues stopped the bid. Senators John Thune, Kelly Ayotte and Governors Bobby Jindal, Jan Brewer, Nikki Haley and Rick Scott declared a lack of interest in running for the position.

Stay tuned for results from the 2015 Iowa Straw Poll and a newer look at our Democratic candidates!
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA) on: June 26, 2012, 08:56:15 pm
Hey guys can I get an AP link w/ results
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY GOP Sen Predictions? on: June 25, 2012, 12:05:04 pm
Wendy Long     40%
Bob Turner       37%
George Maragos 23%

Those are mine
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / 2016: The Changing Faces of the Presidency on: June 23, 2012, 11:49:02 am
In the spring of 2015, the New York Times Magazine runs an issue dedicated solely to discussing the 2016 candidates for president who have already announced intentions to run. President Obama, re-elected after a close win in 2012, stands at about 50% approval, 47% disapproval.

The Democrats

Former Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton, thought to be an early frontrunner, has consistently said that she will not be a contender in 2016. Clinton has held no fundraisers nor any campaign events, and, at this point, if she were to enter the race, it would be surprising to many in the political world, as the 2016 Democratic candidates have already raised millions of dollars and begun campaigning in crucial states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

Vice President Joe Biden launched his exploratory committee for the presidency just last week, but he has already begun a vigorous campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, and in his home state of Delaware, which will hold its primary in late January. Biden has already raised a large sum of money, but according to polls, Democrats are only mildly enthusiastic about Biden's candidacy.

President Barack Obama calls Biden a "tremendously important" vice president, but indicates that he will not get involved in the primary contest. Despite Biden's larger-than-life fundraising operation, he has racked up few endorsements outside of his home state of Delaware.

New York City Mayor Christine Quinn has generated a lot of buzz with the announcement last month that she has formed an exploratory committee looking to the highest office of the land. Recently, TIME Magazine published an article "From City Hall to the White House?" profiling Quinn's significant achievements since being elected New York's first openly gay and female mayor in 2013. Quinn, like her rival Vice President Biden, is a leading contender in fundraising, and has also racked up important endorsements such as most of Greater NYC's congressional delegation, and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who, according to reports begrudgingly decided to drop a bid for the presidency. LGBT elected officials such as Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) have endorsed Quinn in an attempt to solidify support within the LGBT community.

Virginia's Senior Senator Mark Warner is running for president with much of President Obama's former campaign infrastructure. Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod are both work with Warner on his campaign, and, according to recent polling, Warner is a top-tier contender, appearing near or at the top of Democratic preference polls. Many Democrats consider him a solid choice in the primaries. Additionally, Senator Warner polls among the best against Republican candidates for the presidency. So far, Warner's efforts have focused mainly on younger and middle-class voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the African American community in South Carolina, in which Warner is aiming to make strong inroads.

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley has been in the race the longest out of any of the candidates, slowly building up coalitions in early voting states. O'Malley's campaign wants Democrats to know that O'Malley is a solid progressive, pushing for the DREAM Act and marriage equality during his tenure, yet someone who can build bridges with Republicans in the Congress. O'Malley has hired several firms to reach out to the Latino population in Nevada, a caucus state where O'Malley has already opened several campaign offices.

Will he or won't he? New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was reelected with 68% of the vote in 2014, and remains strongly popular in the Empire State. But sources close to Cuomo say he won't pull the trigger on a run unless a clear path is paved for him to win the nomination.

Black, Latino or Asian? Prominent Black, Latino, and Asian Democrats are urging credible candidates of color to consider a run for the presidency. Some prospects include Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez of California or former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar.

Stay tuned for part 2, the Republican candidates...
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / It's been a while... on: June 22, 2012, 07:05:50 pm
...Since I've posted a timeline. I am interested in doing a 2016 Presidential Election with the Democrat (and possibly the Republican) being other than the "typical" straight Christian White Male...

Think it's worth it to do?
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Who Will Take on McCarthy (NY-04)? on: June 22, 2012, 06:59:03 pm
Fran Becker the '10 nominee, also a county Legislator or Frank Scaturro?
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Scott Walker recall goes live on: June 05, 2012, 08:22:18 pm
Is there a CNN link w/ results? im comparing '10 v what i hope to see '12 maps
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / WI Recall Predictions? on: June 04, 2012, 06:27:29 pm
I think it gets sent into overtime with a recount....anyone else?

Post the numbers here.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY-06 Primary on: May 13, 2012, 11:02:07 am
Grace Meng, Rory Lancman, Liz Crowley?

Who will be the Dem nominee for this new district?
36  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If Gingrich Comes in Third... on: March 24, 2012, 03:00:41 pm
I mean it's one thing to associate arrogance to Gingrich...but to call Santorum arrogant...I mean he keeps winning states can you blame him for staying in?
37  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / If Gingrich Comes in Third... on: March 24, 2012, 10:35:38 am
Will he drop out?
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY-10 Primary? on: March 02, 2012, 08:46:08 pm
Towns? Jeffries? Barron? What do you think will happen?
39  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Final PPP poll? on: February 27, 2012, 08:18:49 pm
When is the final PPP poll coming out? Heard it will have good news for frothy.
40  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Post your AZ & MI predictions here on: February 27, 2012, 07:49:06 pm
Won't bother with AZ.

Santorum 39
Romney   36
Paul         13
Gingrich   12
41  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Jan Brewer endorsement apparently coming tomorrow. on: February 25, 2012, 09:28:55 pm
I can't see her not endorsing Romney
42  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Not To Be Inappropriate But... on: February 11, 2012, 08:47:40 pm
Whitney Houston's death is bad news for Romney, I think. Because it will overshadow his news of barely beating Paul in Maine
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / McCarthy vs. Ackerman in NY on: February 11, 2012, 12:30:14 am
If the rumors are true, this will be the primary? What do you think happens?
44  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The CO, MN & MO Results Thread on: February 07, 2012, 07:33:06 pm
What EST is each state closing?
45  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: F. Thompson endorses Gingrich on: January 23, 2012, 10:03:27 pm
Wasn't Thompson an "establishment choice" in 2008? Could this move numbers for Gingrich?
46  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Jeb Bush Endorsement? on: January 22, 2012, 10:14:40 am
Why did Romney reportedly have it then not have it?
47  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Romney Receiving Medical Treatment for Major Ass-kicking on: January 21, 2012, 08:37:45 pm
48  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Jeb Bush will endorse Romney on: January 21, 2012, 08:37:10 pm
49  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Could This Damage Romney on: January 21, 2012, 05:03:14 pm
Gingrich-Santorum-Romney-Paul...in that order?
50  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Poll Closing Time on: January 21, 2012, 03:08:46 pm
What time do polls close in SC...EST please
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