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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: President Bella Abzug? on: August 06, 2016, 04:43:00 pm
Is this worth continuing?
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Nassau County, NY? on: August 05, 2016, 04:33:17 pm
What do you think?

Clinton will win Nassau County, NY. Some areas are very conservative (Garden City). Garden City may go for Trump.

Garden City, Five Towns, eastern Nassau like Wantagh, Massapequa, etc. will all go Trump
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Who will win Nassau County, NY? on: August 05, 2016, 02:59:37 pm
What do you think?
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Donald Trump finish in 2nd place in Washington, D.C.? on: August 05, 2016, 02:57:06 pm
I'm convinced that both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will finish ahead of him.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Scramble on: August 05, 2016, 02:28:06 pm
GORE ENDORSES; FIELD SHIFTS

THE DEMOCRATS

July and August 2003

Gore Backs Dean:


In what is considered somewhat of a surprise move by many observers, former Vice President and 2000 Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore backed Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's bid for the presidency. In his endorsement of Dean, Gore stated that "Dean was the exact opposite of Bush, and that's a good thing!" He also knocked his vice presidential running mate Joe Lieberman. "Those whose campaigns are failing should give this run a second thought."

Gephardt Out, Backs Daschle

House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt has ended his presidential bid and instead is supporting Sen. Tom Daschle, who has earned substantial support from his Senate colleagues. After Gephardt's departure from the campaign, pressure has mounted on Sen. John Kerry, Sen. Joe Lieberman, and Sen. John Edwards to end their bids. Some insiders suggest that Democratic operatives and party elites want Dean defeated early on in the primaries.

Unruly Debate: A late August Fox News debate in South Carolina gained notoriety when numerous candidates walked off stage as Rep. Dennis Kucinich called them "war criminals" and expressed his support for completely defunding the Department of Defense. Sen. Kerry pushed back against the debate moderators and said, "I can't speak a sentence without being interrupted by you and you let Kucinich ramble on for minutes?"

An Anxious Party: Democratic officials are growing increasingly anxious that their candidates are not running strong enough campaigns to be able to compete with the Republican field.

Money Race: Tom Daschle has by far outraised the rest of the Democratic field with $36 million in donations, followed by $19 million for Howard Dean, $15 million for John Kerry, $11 million for Joe Lieberman, $6.4 million for Edwards, and under $1 million each for Moseley-Braun, Sharpton, and Kucinich. Gephardt has $9.4 million raised.

Stay tuned for a primer of fall 2003 including polls and interesting endorsements--plus--will another Democrat be recruited to save the party?
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: If Bloomberg entered the race? on: August 04, 2016, 08:52:25 pm
Obviously he couldnt win but i think he could get over 15% to get into the debates. But could he win any states?

Maps are appreciated.

I think he hurts Hillary substantially. There are not that many "Bloomberg Republicans" in the electorate. He polls best in a more Republican precinct on the Upper East Side that, in the grand scheme of things, is still heavily Democratic
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Scramble on: July 29, 2016, 09:30:12 pm
JEB THE GHOST

THE REPUBLICANS

July and August 2003

Jeb the Ghost:



A series of Republican debates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia resulted in Sen. Bill Frist and Sen. John McCain speaking the most, with Mayor Rudy Giuliani serving as a counterpunch to Frist, defending the Bush administration, and calling McCain "dovish" on issues of terror and national security. Meanwhile, Gov. Bush was notably quiet, and even interjected, during a conversation about the use of IEDs and defending strategic targets in Iraq, stating: "I want to talk about defending our national nest egg and I'd like to declare war on fiscal irresponsibility and foolish Washington-style liberal spending." Bush's comments were met with some boos. Meanwhile, Gov. Huckabee focused largely on family and social issues.

Trump Picks Frist: Billionaire businessman Donald Trump, who flirted with his own Republican presidential bid, announced in July that he would back Sen. Frist. In a joint press conference at Trump Tower, Trump answered press questions, and, bizarrely at times, offered reasons for his endorsement. "Look folks, we got to be serious. Look who we have out there. We have McCain he got beat in 2000--beat bad. The base doesn't like him. I like Rudy he's a good guy but let's be real he's a liberal, Huckabee also nice guy, family guy, but come on. Jeb Bush is tired. No more Bushes--" to with Sen. Frist defended Pres. Bush but admitted he agreed with Trump's 'low energy Jeb' characterization.

Money Race: Jeb Bush has outraised the field with $15 million. Frist and Giuliani each raised $7 million. McCain raised $4 million. Huckabee raised just under $1 million.

Notable Endorsements Since Last Posting:
Jeb Bush: Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), fmr Sen. Bob Dole (R-NC), Fmr VP Dan Quayle (R-IN), Rep. John Kasich (R-OH), Sen. Bob Smith (R-NH), businessman Steve Forbes, various Bush admin. officials.

Bill Frist: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Rep. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Sen. George Allen (R-VA), Gov. Bob Taft (R-OH), various local elected officials in Iowa and South Carolina.

John McCain: Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH)

Rudy Giuliani: Sen. John E. Sununu (R-NH)

DEMOCRATS TO COME NEXT!

33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election 2020: The Game! on: July 25, 2016, 08:01:44 pm
Is it too late to join?

Nah. Just get your sh*t done by the morning.

Is there a synopsis version of just how exactly it works? Can I be any candidate I want?
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election 2020: The Game! on: July 25, 2016, 07:58:12 pm
Is it too late to join?
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Who is the most likely President on 1/21/21? on: July 24, 2016, 11:15:31 am
Clinton is definitely the favorite. If the GOP gets back in the White House at all it won't be for another several cycles (2024 at the earliest, possibly as late as 2032).

Do you really think that the G.O.P is incompetent enough to not be able to stop the reelection of one of the most disliked candidates in American history?

Um, yes. See: Trump/Pence
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Staten Island on: July 23, 2016, 04:24:05 pm
Trump. And it won't even be close. Trump dominated in Richmond County (Staten Island) in the primary. It's his target demo.

Staten Island is a great geographical example of one of the few cross-sections of American voters in which support for Trump might outperform that of McCain or Romney. Staten Island has a lot of blue collar, trade union Democrats who feel that Trump speaks to them. That being said, I don't agree that it "won't be close," though I could see Trump pulling off a 53-46 type of win.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Dubya Downfall: A Saga Of the 2004 Election on: July 23, 2016, 02:32:12 pm
Love this TL
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Scramble on: July 23, 2016, 01:19:28 pm
JEB BUSH STRUGGLES; DEMOCRATIC FIELD IN LIMBO

THE REPUBLICANS

June 2003

Early June: Throughout early June, Jeb Bush fumbled a number of big interviews with morning talk news shows and Republican/conservative base events. At a 'Freedom Forum' hastily organized by a group of Iowa evangelicals, Bush told the crowd his focus would not be on social issues and would not be on "escalating war" but would be on Social Security reform and repairing the American education system. Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mike Huckabee reportedly "wowed" the crowd in Iowa, with McCain's focus on defeating terror through "strong families and a strong military," and Huckabee's focus on social issues. Karl Rove, who was asked by Jeb Bush not be on his campaign was still giving Jeb advice through the channels of the Bush family, and urged President Bush to tell his brother to focus on the conservative base. Making matters even worse for Jeb Bush: Sen. McCain and NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani reported stellar fundraising during the first month of their presidential campaigns, and also collected numerous endorsements from the early states.


Mayor Giuliani received early endorsements from Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN), Gov. George Pataki (R-NY), and a slew of New Hampshire state legislators.


Sen. McCain campaigned in New Hampshire in June 2003 brandishing his newest and most prominent endorser, Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), who is speculated to be on all GOP candidates' VP shortlist.

Mid/Late June: By late June, a number of core constituencies of the Republican base remained uninspired by the current crop of candidates: Jeb Bush, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee. Donald Trump and John Ashcroft ultimately decided not to run. Top evangelical leaders began recruiting Sen. Bill Frist, the reliably conservative Senate Majority Leader. Reluctant at first, Frist began receiving phone calls from various Republican elected officials promising their support if he entered the race. By late June, Frist announced that he was "actively exploring" a bid for the presidency.

LATE JUNE IOWA GOP POLLING AVERAGE: 21% Bush, 13% Frist, 11% McCain, 9% Giuliani, 3% Huckabee; 43% undecided

LATE JUNE NATIONAL GOP POLLING AVERAGE: 25% Bush, 15% McCain, 14% Frist, 12% Giuliani, 2% Huckabee; 32% undecided

THE DEMOCRATS

Early/Mid June: Numerous reports began to surface that former Vice President and 2000 Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore was reconsidering a bid for president. Democratic insiders suggested that a Gore entrance to the race would result in several of the more establishment-minded candidates (i.e. Gephardt, Kerry, and Daschle)




Late June: Despite the potential of Gore's surprise entry, Gov. Howard Dean has begun racking up endorsements including MoveOn.org and local elected officials in Iowa. Dean is branding himself as the "liberal antidote" to the George W. Bush presidency

LATE JUNE IOWA DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITH GORE): 30% Gore, 14% Dean, 13% Daschle, 5% Kerry, 5% Lieberman, 5% Gephardt, 5% Edwards, 1% Kucinich, 0% Moseley Braun, 0% Sharpton; 22% undecided

LATE JUNE IOWA DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITHOUT GORE): 20% Daschle, 16% Dean, 10% Kerry, 7% Gephardt, 6% Edwards, 5% Lieberman, 1% Kucinich, 0% Moseley Braun, 0% Sharpton, 35% undecided

LATE JUNE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITH GORE): 36% Gore, 12% Kerry, 12% Daschle, 11% Gephardt, 3% Edwards, 3% Lieberman, 1% Kucinich, 1% Sharpton, 0% Moseley Braun; 21% undecided

LATE JUNE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITHOUT GORE): 18% Daschle, 14% Kerry, 14% Dean, 12% Gephardt, 7% Lieberman, 4% Edwards, 2% Sharpton, 1% Kucinich, 0% Moseley Braun; 28% undecided

COMING UP IN JULY: FIRST DEBATES!
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 02:17:44 pm
As we're awaiting this, can someone remind me why Kaine is the #1 frontrunner and nobody cares about Warner, who has (I think) all his positives and is less boring?

He blew it in 2014. Ran a bad campaign, and almost lost.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 10:29:11 am
Would Hillary's campaign really signal possible Booker, Perez in last week and then suddenly say "lol jk it's...Kaine"?

I find that such an amateurish thing to do...possibly irritating a very loosely committed coalition of supporters finally finding their way to Hillary's team (i.e. millennials, Sanders voters, etc)

It's strategy. I really don't care about their delicate feelings right now.

Harsh, but it's 1:25am and I'm tired.

And the strategy is supposed to what? Make people feel even worse about Kaine? I don't care about feelings either and I've probably logged in hundreds of hours volunteering for Hillary. I'm always going to enthusiastically support the ticket but I truly don't feel that Kaine was the best choice and the "strategy" doesn't make a lot of sense.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 10:23:53 am
Would Hillary's campaign really signal possible Booker, Perez in last week and then suddenly say "lol jk it's...Kaine"?

I find that such an amateurish thing to do...possibly irritating a very loosely committed coalition of supporters finally finding their way to Hillary's team (i.e. millennials, Sanders voters, etc)
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 08:11:22 am
It's going to be Booker
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 21, 2016, 10:45:00 pm
It was long but he probably needed to do what he needed to do, and with more rehearsal and delivery like this, he'll be able to keep the campaign at least Obama-McCain competitive....not some sort of 55% Hillary 40% Trump, 5% Johnson blowout...
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 21, 2016, 10:12:58 pm
Sadly, and scarily, I think this speech is *good* in the sense that I can see it earning him support.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 20, 2016, 06:16:45 pm
What's the speaking schedule tonight?
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Scramble on: July 20, 2016, 06:15:14 pm
Any thoughts? Interesting ideas or questions? Next update coming this week
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 07:33:09 pm
While I think these speakers have been nuts, I can't help but think they might be more moving to everyday people than a well-polished speech from say Rubio, etc.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 05:27:28 pm
My God, not these two again.

I'm horrified
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 05:12:02 pm
Is what's on C-SPAN now, live?
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / PREDICT the keynote speakers on: July 17, 2016, 08:35:13 pm
For both the GOP and Democratic conventions
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