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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What percentage of the African-American vote does Bernie Sanders win in the GE? on: June 19, 2017, 02:58:25 pm
90% + and it's less about liking Bernie and more about a response to Trump second term
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 18, 2017, 12:14:17 pm
Good job so far.

1.What do the battleground EV maps look like for Gingrich and Bush?

2. What is the status for the Senate? 

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider


This is the generally accepted "swing-state" map. The states shaded in grey are states that Bush, Gingrich, and Gore campaign officials acknowledge will be battlegrounds come the general election. There are some nuances to keep in mind here. For example, rumors continue to grow that Republican Sen. John McCain is being courted as a potential vice presidential candidate for Democrat Al Gore. Should this happen, or should McCain not enthusiastically endorse the eventual Republican nominee, Arizona may remain up there as a swing state. If McCain does come to throw his weight behind the GOP nominee, Arizona may leave that map.

There are a number of paradoxes to keep in mind as well. First, while Bush still outpolls Gingrich in New England states among GOP primary voters, Gingrich on average polls better there against Gore than Bush does. In Texas, voters give Bush a 55% to 35% edge over Gore, but just a 49% to 39% edge over Gingrich. Similarly, in Georgia, voters give Gingrich a 52% to 37% lead over Gore, but give Bush only a 49% to 41% lead over Bush.

2. It's too early to give a serious look at Senate races. There are close races to watch in Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Washington.

28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Who is running in 2020? tea leaves thread on: June 18, 2017, 08:23:27 am
Klobuchar on Fox News Sunday today
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 17, 2017, 05:37:48 pm
1.Is there anyway Bush can be out in the lead after Super Tuesday?

2.Could celebrity endorsements and them trying to get the vote out help for both candidates?

3.How do voters feel about the Bush attack ads against Gingrich about his affair history?

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

1. Bush can reclaim frontrunner status if he were to win a number of the Super Tuesday states out of the ones that are voting on March 7: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

But that may be a very tall order. In public, Bush campaign aides explain that Bush needs to win California or New York and a number of northeastern states voting on March 7. But in private, Bush campaign aides admit that they really need to win both in order to swing the narrative back that Bush is ahead. The Bush team sank $3 million of Bush family money into California alone, only to see Bush go from a 49% to 41% lead over Gingrich to a 47% to 46% deficit of one point. Gingrich has also earned the support of New York Gov. George Pataki and officials in other states where there is voting in Super Tuesday.

2. Both Bush and Gingrich have celebrity endorsements. Democrat Al Gore has most celebrity endorsements. Gingrich notably has Donald Trump and Steve Forbes along with country music stars like Ted Nugent.

3. Gingrich has seen a *slight* drop in support from Evangelicals since the airing of these campaign ads, but he has consistently gained support among white working class Catholics and less religious Republican folks. The trend lines really break down like this: Bush is winning "country club" Republicans and Wall Street Republicans, minus, say, Trump and Forbes. Gingrich is winning "country" Republicans and Main Street Republicans.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 17, 2017, 09:28:16 am
Interactive Feature

Given the hotly contested nature of the Republican Primary, Meet the Press on NBC has added a video production feature in which American voters and election observers can ask pundits questions about the race. So, for the next 24 hours or so, feel free to ask questions about this election so far. A pundit (someone prominent around 2000) will respond in detail to your question. Some examples can be:

How does polling look in Super Tuesday states? California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

Who has received endorsements from whom?

What's Bush's path to nomination?

Etc. Feel free to ask away. Super Tuesday post will come within a day or so.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 17, 2017, 08:25:32 am
Are the democratic primaries going the same way?

Yes, Democratic primaries are same as IRL. Al Gore will be the Democratic nominee here.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ursula Burns for President? on: June 16, 2017, 09:16:01 pm
Wasn't she the villain in The Little Mermaid?

No that was Carly Fiorina
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the 2020 National Debates once again be nasty? on: June 16, 2017, 09:15:18 pm
Depends. If Trump is the GOP nominee in 2020 then yes due to the fact that he is a very fragile, easily shaken candidate. He is emotional, incendiary, and is unable to control his outbursts. In addition to that, traditional debating techniques might not work. In 2016 Trump wasn't "good" at debating. His policy positions were incoherent and on substance the 6th grade social studies guru at your local middle school could outsmart him. But he out yelled and outperformed Hillary.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Ursula Burns for President? on: June 16, 2017, 09:12:05 pm
Grew up in NYC public housing. Became Xerox CEO and Chair. Charismatic speaker.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 16, 2017, 06:25:31 pm
February 27-29, 2000

Leading up to the February 27 Puerto Rico primary, Republicans George W. Bush and Newt Gingrich held an extremely contentious debate in Virginia, site of one of the Mini Tuesday Republican primaries. Gov. Bush called Gingrich "a good but unhinged man" and Gingrich accused Bush of being part of the "Clinton crony class." Gingrich's populist messaging in the GOP primary touched a nerve with Bush, who thought that his campaign focused on compassionate economic issues through a conservative lens. Making matters worse, Bush nudged his brother Jeb, governor of Florida, out of the way for what was though to be a surefire path to the Republican nomination. Now, just weeks away from both the Florida and Texas primaries, Bush was in a do or die moment. Bush needed a win in Virginia. Washington and North Dakota, with a populist bend in both states, were unlikely to yield him a result. Bush also campaigned in Puerto Rico with his Spanish-speaking brother.

George W. Bush    66% WINNER
Newt Gingrich       31%

Newt Gingrich       52% WINNER
George W. Bush    46%

Newt Gingrich        59% WINNER
George W. Bush     39%

Newt Gingrich        61% WINNER
George W. Bush     35%

Another near-sweep for Gingrich. Despite losing the low-stakes Puerto Rico primary, Gingrich swept Virginia, Washington, and North Dakota. Virginia was particularly painful for Bush. He hoped that Northern Virginia insiders and Evangelicals in the state would deliver a win. He came 6 points short.

The Bush campaign was running out of money and patience. 12 states were set to vote on March 7. Worse for Bush, polling nationally finally showed Gingrich eclipsing Bush.

CNN: 49% Gingrich, 38% Bush
WSJ: 50% Gingrich, 38% Bush

Bush needs to win California and Northeast primary states on March 7 in order to remain viable for the nomination. If Gingrich wins California, the path to the presidency shrinks for Bush.

NEXT UP: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington [caucus]
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Donald Trump react if he loses and the Democrats retake Congress? on: June 16, 2017, 06:42:05 am
Probably will blame it on "illegals voting" which evidently seems to rile up the GOP base
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 15, 2017, 09:45:36 pm
February 22, 2000

"Friends and neighbors. Many months ago Cindy and I announced that I would put my name in contention for the presidency. We did not get the results we wanted and weeks back I ended my presidential bid. Since then, the Republican primary has become contentious--full of vitriol, and, let's face it, light on substance. Our party, and more importantly, our country, deserve a contemplative, policy-focused Republican primary focused on what matters to the American people. Let's face it. Speaker Gingrich, a man I like and a man I respect, will win the nomination if he wins our state. I don't believe the Republican race should end. The nomination should be earned. And the current tenor of the GOP debate is not one that I'm comfortable with. We must answer the questions that the American people demand we answer in order to earn their vote. So, to that end, my friends, I urge you to vote for George Walker Bush in the Republican primary on February 22. I have not endorsed Gov. Bush. And I am not casting any judgment on Speaker Gingrich. But I ask you to expand the primary process by supporting Gov. Bush in Arizona so we can have a conversation as a party and as a country about the direction we want America to go in. Thank you."

 - Sen. John McCain, February 20, 2000

George W. Bush    46.9% WINNER
Newt Gingrich       45.9%

Meanwhile, Gov. George W. Bush campaigned with Mitt Romney, a former GOP senate candidate with political aspirations in Massachusetts, who was the son of former Michigan Gov. George Romney. It did Bush little good.

Newt Gingrich      54% WINNER
George W. Bush   43%

The truth is that the winner of the night was still Newt Gingrich, who won Michigan by 11 points, losing Arizona by just 1 point. But Gingrich and his team were irked by McCain's pseudo-endorsement of Bush. And they worried that other Republican leaders would follow suit in order to deny Gingrich what he wanted: a shortcut to take on Al Gore.

In a speech that night in Virginia, Gingrich declared that "the days of crooked crony Washington politics are over! Americans are speaking louder and clearer by the day--by the election, really. We want to cleanse our cities of criminals and thugs and crack cocaine. We want to close failing schools across the country and replace them with schools of the parents' choice. We want to stop Medicare and Social Security from going bankrupt. And yes, that means making bold choices by putting the fate of these programs in American ingenuity and not the predatory government! Stop Gore! Stop Bush! Join me and take back America from the crooked class!"

Republican party stalwarts grew nervous as Gingrich appeared to embrace more extreme elements of traditional GOP dogma. GOP policy leaders urged Gingrich to tone down the rhetoric on privatization of Medicare and Social Security, and try to embrace "compassionate conservatism," the slogan of Gov. Bush's campaign. Gingrich aides recorded the conversation and aired it to the press in an attempt to prove that DC insiders were trying to prop up the Bush campaign. The controversy took days of coverage and eventually a formal apology was issued to the Gingrich campaign.

NEXT UP: Puerto Rico + Mini Tuesday (Virginia, North Dakota, Washington)
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 15, 2017, 03:39:34 pm
I feel like Newt will choose Bush as his VP.

Primaries ain't over! Wink

But this TL will include a very detailed VP selection analysis
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 15, 2017, 03:26:30 pm
February 8-19, 2000

The day after a devastating loss in New Hampshire, Bush campaign aides decided to focus the campaign's energy on a full-throttle brawl in South Carolina. The Palmetto State was known for delivering surprises, and Bush aides figured that Delaware would otherwise be an unimportant step on the road to the nomination.

On February 3, 2000, a top deputy to RNC Chair Jim Nicholson phoned Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL). "Look, Jeb, your brother has to compete in Delaware. Ted [Castle] is furious that [Karl] Rove and Joe Allbaugh don't have him scheduled in there at all. He also thinks he's vulnerable in November if Newt is the nominee. Thinks Delaware won't bite. You need to play the delegate game if you want to beat Gingrich. Everyone is talking Newt. Gore's internals supposedly have him up big against Gingrich maybe 14, 16 points, and only up a few points against George. Please. Get him to Delaware."

The next day, George and Laura Bush did a 48 hour campaign blitz in Delaware, with Rep. Ted Castle who endorsed Bush. Castle insisted that "Delaware will be the state that launches President George W. Bush!"

Newt Gingrich       57% WINNER
George W. Bush    39%
Drop outs             4%

Another rout for Gingrich. The Bush campaign was piping mad, and Rep. Tad Castle was embarrassed.

The days preceding South Carolina were grueling. Bush's campaign was accused by Gingrich aides of launching low-blow attacks against Newt and his wife Callista, calling him a "Don Juan Newt" due to his affairs, comparing him to a "pimp" in one episode. Evangelical leaders were split. Many big names went for George Bush. But Newt Gingrich earned the support of others. Gingrich aides worried that for the first time they saw wear and tear in their candidate. Gingrich's stunning New Hampshire and Delaware wins launched their campaign into frontrunner status. Their scrappy operation defied expectations and was on the verge of derailing Bush. But would South Carolina deliver for Newt?

Newt Gingrich        53%  WINNER
George W. Bush     45%

South Carolina did. And Gingrich prevailed again. The Bush campaign was shocked into silence. George W. Bush would meet the next day with his brother in Florida. If Gingrich won both Arizona and Michigan on February 22, there was no way he could carry on the campaign.

UP NEXT: A fiery debate and the Arizona, Michigan primaries.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 13, 2017, 06:12:21 pm
ANY numbers yet?

Patience is a virtue.

I'm a lifelong NYer =/
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 13, 2017, 06:11:02 pm
ANY numbers yet?
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 13, 2017, 02:20:32 pm
So, anecdotally I'm hearing very low turnout. But also anecdotally, I'm seeing on Twitter comparisons to 2009 and it seems that every precinct posted on Twitter is approaching 2009 turnout before the PM rush has started.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 13, 2017, 12:24:49 pm
Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?

My GOP/political friends in VA (or DC) have been telling me for days that they think it's not impossible for Stewart to pull an upset or come very close to Gillespie. They posit that GOP turnout might be depressed in NoVa due to dissatisfaction with Trump but Trump supporters will come out strong for Stewart.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / VA-2017 Primary predictions on: June 12, 2017, 09:02:04 pm


Perriello       50.4%
Northam      49.6%


Gillespie      45%
Stewart       39%
Wagner       16%
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 11, 2017, 03:37:52 pm
February 1, 2000

Just after the Bush team's near miss in Iowa, top aides to the Texas noted frantically that the Grantie State has gone gaga for Gingrich. Gingrich lawn signs were seemingly everywhere, and Gingrich even scored major newspaper endorsements and the backing of Gov. Judd Gregg, much to the heartbreak of the Bush campaign.

Sen. John McCain was also a wildcard in the race. As one of the three final GOP contenders for the nomination, McCain took a slice of the prevalent anti-Bush vote. But data also suggested that McCain was reaching voters who would choose Bush over Gingrich, including veterans and those who identify as lifelong Republicans.

Gingrich and Bush campaign aides got into a "war of words" over data just before the New Hampshire debate. Bush aide Karl Rove insisted that the Gingrich campaign was "by design, meant to fail" because it relied too heavily on Internet and computer-based outreach to draw voters to the primaries, including tepid Republicans and conservative independents. Rove insisted that the Bush campaign launch negative ads about Gingrich's prior marriages.

Newt Gingrich        51% WINNER
George W. Bush     26%
John McCain          22%
Dropped out           1%

"I guess it turns out Republicans don't care for dynasties do they?" bellowed Gingrich to supporters who roared back in agreement. "We're sick of it, as a party, of the Bills and the Hillarys, the George's and the Laura's, the Al's and the Tipper's. Conservatives across this great state sent a message to the elite ruling class in Washington that we won't take it anymore!"

The results were devastating for the Bush team. Karl Rove's reliance on traditional voter data was not entirely wrong. George W. Bush indeed tied with Gingrich among Republicans, but independents came out 70% for Gingrich with much of the remainder going for McCain.

BREAKING: McCain drops out of the race, refuses to endorse Bush or Gingrich, does not rule out independent bid or support for Democratic ticket.

NEXT UP: Wounded Bush tries to make a comeback in Delaware and South Carolina.

NOTE: If you want more information, i.e. where the candidates did well, exit data, polling, etc. let me know.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 43: NEWT! on: June 10, 2017, 09:56:23 am
January 24, 2000

George W. Bush          46%  WINNER
Newt Gingrich             43%
Alan Keyes                  5%
John McCain                4%
Gary Bauer                  2%
Orrin Hatch                 <1%

Despite the barrage of negative ads and being outspent nearly 15 to 1 in Iowa, Speaker Gingrich scored what many in the press deemed an "upset runner up" position, coming within 3 points of Gov. Bush. In what Gingrich called the "first bullet of the new American Revolution," he urged his supporters to look toward New Hampshire for the "first conquer," and chided Gov. Bush's campaign for running "sleazy, negative ads."

"The American people are tired of the Oval Office serving as an owner's box for rich, elite families. The Clintons. The Bushes. Enough is enough. It's time for a moral majority in this country again. It's time to end the entitlement empire. It's time to end the failed Clinton Bush foreign policy."

Gingrich won the Alaska Caucuses that night, which served mainly as a beauty contest as there were no delegates to award. Still, Gingrich won the Alaska Caucuses with 56% of the vote, to Bush's 31%, stoking fear in many Bush campaign advisers that Gingrich enthusiasm would be hard to topple going forward.

In the days following Iowa, Gingrich's campaign focused with laser precision on winning New Hampshire. Gingrich gambled that New Hampshire Republicans were especially concerned with reviving America's business-friendly environment. Gingrich scored support of real estate tycoon Donald Trump. Gingrich announced that if he were elected president, he would inject billions of dollars in sorely needed infrastructure across the country, especially in New Hampshire.

Up Next: New Hampshire upends the 2000 GOP Primary
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Bernie Sanders converted to Christianity before 2020... on: June 09, 2017, 09:33:58 pm
Does the OP not seem slightly concerning and anti-Semitic to anyone, at least to some extent?

48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: What TL would you like to see? on: June 09, 2017, 06:27:03 pm
I'd really like to see a "Biden runs in 2016" scenario that is full of primary results, etc. I feel like it is an often-discussed topic that often doesn't have a lot of substantive development here on the Forum.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / 43: NEWT! on: June 09, 2017, 05:02:09 pm
Iowa Eve
January 23, 2000

The 2000 Republican primaries had gone nothing like planned thus far. Gov. George Bush of Texas was the consummate frontrunner, pushing back a surging, moderate Sen. John McCain of Arizona. But late in August 2000, the former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich of Georgia, once the butt of political jokes, held a rally in Georgia with thousands of supporters and current/former members of Congress who wanted a conservative GOP nominee but feared the intellectual haplessness of Gov. Bush. Speaker Gingrich announced his long-speculated bid for the presidency, and promised to double-down on America's role in defining the "moral majority," as he called.

Gingrich outlined his most important issues: ending the "out of control welfare state," scaling back "over intrusive, failed Clinton foreign policy," denying money to public schools that continue to fail students, and making America business friendly again.

Businessman Steve Forbes, who launched a presidential bid of his own, dropped out that fall and backed Gingrich as both a political supporter and financial backer. Gingrich's campaign style was different than that of Bush and McCain. He was brash, sharp-tongued, whip-smart, and convinced supporters thus far that only he could shake up the system that "the Bushes and the Clintons" had benefited from.

Polls showed Gingrich surging in Iowa and Alaska (0 delegates), which held caucuses on January 24, 2000, the next day. Gingrich actually visited Alaska twice, in the hopes that a win there could counter-balance any bad news in Iowa. Few GOP pundits believed Gingrich could win the nomination, though many fretted that he would damage the inevitable nominee, George Bush.

Gingrich was ready to fight. He and his wife Callista held rallied all day, and were not afraid to criticize Republicans too. But could Gingrich become president. Would he be the famed number 43?

Stay tuned, the story is about to get interesting.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: OSSOFF on: June 08, 2017, 08:32:55 pm
On hold until the GA-06 special so I can use more graphics, context, etc.
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