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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Dubya Downfall: American Politics 2004 and Beyond on: May 21, 2016, 06:03:34 pm
Really would love to see Dean pick an awesome VP candidate
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Tumult of 2020 - Parallel Universe on: May 19, 2016, 01:12:38 pm
2019: Bowing Out, Soldiering On

The spring of 2019 was an eventful one on the presidential campaign front. President Rubio announced that he would seek re-election along with Vice President Nikki Haley as his running mate. With 46% approval, and 48% disapproval, Pres. Rubio's re-election chances look solid but far from certain. 47% of Americans felt that Pres. Rubio deserves re-election, while another 47% say that he does not.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York has dropped out of the presidential race citing her desire to "stop the implementation of the failed Rubio agenda," and her need to return to her constituents in New York. Gillibrand struggled early on to break into the middle-tier of the presidential back, and reportedly did not see a viable path to victory in any of the four early states (in 2020, these are still IA, NH, SC, and NV). She is reported to favor Sen. Booker or Sen. Feingold for the nomination as she clashed early on with Sen. Warren at a candidate forum on CNN in New Hampshire.

Former AFL-CIO Richard Trumka will also drop out of the race, having raised only $500,000 in his bid. He will not back a candidate before the early states have concluded, according to a campaign aide.

Meanwhile, aides to Sen. Booker of New Jersey have urged Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York to drop out of the race as well. Several Booker aides have told reporters that Cuomo's presence in the race is preventing Booker from accessing prominent New York-based donors who will be integral in taking on Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Sen. Booker feels that the race will ultimately come down to him and Warren, and he is focused right now on Iowa with the thinking that Warren will probably win New Hampshire, and that he could eventually win South Carolina with the African American vote.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts meanwhile has emerged as the prohibitive frontrunner, despite competing against a talented field of Democratic candidates. She also received the endorsement of 2016 Democratic runner up Sen. Bernie Sanders, who held an endorsement rally with her in New Hampshire. Sen. Warren insists that she can expand the Sanders coalition, and she has decided that she will take money from progressive PACs and some businesses, law firms, etc.



Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin was hoping for a Sanders endorsement as he is trying to capitalize on Sanders working and middle-class Rust Belt supporters. Feingold has focused his campaign on eliminating corruption and implementing campaign finance reforms. He has also taken on issues of food and farming justice, which he hopes will ignite support in both rural and urban communities. His plan essentially is an agricultural stimulus package in which farmers grow food mainly for consumers in food deserts and poor communities. Food coops, charities and non-profits, and states and municipalities, school districts, as well as individuals would purchase the food with government subsidies.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois emerged on the scene as an exciting top candidate, but is now being regarded as every candidate's top vice presidential choice. Sen. Duckworth has not campaigned energetically in the first four states and has instead focused so far mainly on her Senate agenda, including serving as lead opposition to almost all of Rubio's cabinet appointments, especially in foreign policy areas.

Last, former Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland ranks at the bottom of the pack yet again. He has become the object of late-night TV jokes, with many suggesting that he really wants a low-level cabinet position.

NATIONAL POLL (Washington Post/ABC): 31% Warren, 18% Booker, 11% Feingold, 7% Duckworth, 5% Cuomo, 3% O'Malley, 25% undecided

NATIONAL POLL (New York Times/CBS): 32% Warren, 20% Booker, 11% Feingold, 9% Duckworth, 6% Cuomo, 2% O'Malley, 20% undecided

IOWA POLL (Washington Post/ABC): 29% Warren, 19% Booker, 15% Feingold, 10% Duckworth, 4% Cuomo, 4% O'Malley, 19% undecided

IOWA POLL (New York Times/CBS): 29% Warren, 20% Booker, 14% Feingold, 12% Duckworth, 3% Cuomo, 2% O'Malley, 20% undecided

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL (Washington Post/ABC): 37% Warren, 13% Booker, 9% Feingold, 7% Cuomo, 5% Duckworth, 2% O'Malley, 27% undecided

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL (New York Times/CBS): 36% Warren, 15% Booker, 10% Feingold, 7% Cuomo, 6% Duckworth, 2% O'Malley, 24% undecided

COMING UP: A CRAZY SUMMER OF 2019




28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts: Kentucky (D) and Oregon on: May 17, 2016, 04:08:13 pm
Going to be bold

KY:
Clinton   53%
Sanders 45%

OR:
Clinton    51%
Sanders   49%
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts: Kentucky (D) and Oregon on: May 17, 2016, 01:35:51 pm
Kentucky- Clinton 52-48, Oregon Clinton 53-47
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Tumult of 2020 on: May 16, 2016, 01:09:02 pm
So I stopped this once it looked like (based on Early States) that Rubio really would not be the nominee. Anyone think it's worth continuing?
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Hell Toupée on: May 16, 2016, 01:06:21 pm
Anyone have any suggestions or comments?

I'd love to know more about why Castro won't be considered (and I've been reading lately that they're deflating the Castro balloon)
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Attempt to guess Trump's VP shortlist (based on these list of clues) on: May 15, 2016, 08:05:12 am
Sorry I don't buy that his campaign *really* has a true short-list at this stage in the game. I can't imagine that they've already limited themselves to 5 or 6 people especially as more and more GOP deleted officials and leaders are beginning to endorse Trump.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Trump still campaigning in primary states? on: May 10, 2016, 06:00:10 pm
He also hasn't clinched yet technically--I actually agree with this policy--I think he wants to clinch first as insurance
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 05:52:21 pm
Cruz is gaining steadily

Wait are we looking at the same primary? lol
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 05:00:25 pm
Will the news outlets start reporting numbers at 6 the way they did FL before all polls closed?
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Predict Indiana Results + Fallout on: May 01, 2016, 04:00:14 pm
Democrats
Hillary Clinton 53%
Bernie Sanders 47%

[Sanders vows to carry on despite deeper pressure to drop out; maybe a Warren endorsement of Clinton?]

Republicans
Donald Trump  47%
Ted Cruz         41%
John Kasich    12%

[Slew of establishment endorsements for Trump]
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY-03: Democratic Scramble for Steve Israel Seat on: May 01, 2016, 01:22:20 pm
Who do you think pulls off the primary?
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 07:07:51 pm
Any ACTUAL results anywhere?!?!?!
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 07:07:26 pm
Any ACTUAL results anywhere?!?!?!
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary Clinton clinch the nomination tomorrow? on: April 26, 2016, 06:00:43 pm
I can't see him continuing seriously if he gets routed today, just saying...
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats take over the NYS Senate in 2016? on: April 26, 2016, 08:21:12 am
Sorry to bump this, but I have a good friend running in NY State Senate District 3, and was wondering if someone here knowledgeable about NY politics could tell me about his chances there.

Running against Tom Croci? Who is this person?
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Hillary Clinton clinch the nomination tomorrow? on: April 25, 2016, 09:37:50 pm
If a number of super delegates boost her tomorrow she can clinch at night after the results are in
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts - April 26 Contests on: April 24, 2016, 11:32:04 am
Republicans:

Connecticut - Trump 46%; Kasich 34% ; Cruz 17%
Delaware - Trump 50%; Kasich 24%; Cruz 25%
Maryland - Trump 41%; Kasich 31%; Cruz 28%
Pennsylvania - Trump 42%; Kasich 28%; Cruz 30%
Rhode Island - Trump 54%; Kasich 30%; Cruz 16%

Democrats:

Connecticut - Clinton 55%; Sanders 44%
Delaware - Clinton 58%; Sanders 41%
Maryland - Clinton 63%; Sanders 34%
Pennsylvania - Clinton 56%; Sanders 42%
Rhode Island - Clinton 54%; Sanders 45%
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / 2018 MA GOV Race on: April 23, 2016, 12:19:45 pm
Indications show so far that "A List" candidates (current statewide office holders, members of Congress) are not likely to run against Gov. Baker, so long as he remains at least moderately popular.

Who do you think may emerge as some likely Democratic candidates against Baker for 2018?
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYC vote by precinct on: April 23, 2016, 11:18:15 am
Is western Queens still white ethnic area or did the hipsters take over Astoria? Where are the Greeks? What is going on?

Western Queens is a big mix. But lots of young Manhattan families have moved into LIC, Astoria, and Sunnyside. Still lots of Greeks in Astoria. Lots of Latino, Asian (South Asian, Korean) in the area too.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 4/26 Clinton Sweep--implications? on: April 22, 2016, 03:37:29 pm
I can't help but think that if Hillary wins it all on 4/26 that Obama will officially endorse her and that Sanders will be on tremendous pressure to give it a rest
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What percentage of the Jewish vote with Bernie get in NY? on: April 17, 2016, 09:33:28 am
33%
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Democratic primary result in each NYC borough on: April 15, 2016, 07:43:01 am
Bronx: HRC 71% - BS 28%
Manhattan: HRC 54% - BS 45%
Staten Island: HRC 56% - BS 43%
Brooklyn: HRC 59% - BS 40%
Queens: HRC 61% - BS 38%
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Predict NY Democratic and Republican results on: April 14, 2016, 08:04:54 am
Democrat
Clinton    56%
Sanders   43%

Republican
Trump 51%
Kasich 29%
Cruz 20%
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where will Trump do better in New York? on: April 11, 2016, 07:04:53 pm
Benchmark Politics made a map for the Democratic primary.


Clinton loses Manhattan, and wins some north country counties? Come on.

Clinton losing Upstate makes sense, but I don't see why she'd be lean in Nassau. I'd say her support is stronger in Nassau than in Suffolk. She'll probably win Manhattan 55-45.
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