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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / The Scramble on: July 15, 2016, 05:49:44 pm

May 1, 2003

"Admiral Kelly, Captain Card, officers and sailors of the USS Abraham Lincoln, my fellow Americans: Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the Battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country...the war on terror is not over, yet it is not endless. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide. No act of the terrorists will change our purpose, or weaken our resolve, or alter their fate. Their cause is lost. Free nations will press on to victory....Our nation, free as ever, will continue to prevail with God's blessing and our military's strength. It has been the privilege of my lifetime to serve as its leader, it's commander-in-chief. When I first took the oath of this office I swore before the eyes of our Lord to protect this nation and above all, put its health, happiness, and security above my own. It is my profound and awesome responsibility to inform you all today that I will not be seeking a second term as your president. In one term, this administration has set out to confront the dangers at home and abroad. But as we draw our operations in Iraq to a close, it's critical that a new leader take lead of this most glorious nation. I thank you all for your love support and prayers that I have received over the past three years, and I look forward to continued blessings until my time as president up come January 2005. Thank you, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.


Stay tuned.


27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will be Jill Stein's best state? on: July 09, 2016, 09:22:59 pm
I could see her getting, like, 8% in VT maybe.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Race to Replace President Clinton on: July 08, 2016, 12:01:34 pm
Going to wrap up the rest of election results for the Democratic primary!

REMAINDER OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS + KEY EVENTS

**February 17: Obama and Villaraigosa back Napolitano**

February 20: Nevada Caucuses
Napolitano:  44% 
Booker             28%
De Blasio         27%

**February 19: De Blasio, Booker perform well at various town halls in SC; Napolitano not so well**

February 27: South Carolina Primary
Booker:    51%
De Blasio 31%
Napolitano 18%

**February 28: U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara announces indictment of several top De Blasio aides; Booker fumbles on questions about charter schools; WARREN endorses Booker**

March 1: Super Tuesday States

Alabama
Booker:   54%
De Blasio:    27%
Napolitano:  19%

American Samoa
Booker wins all delegates

Arkansas
Booker:  60%
De Blasio:   28%
Napolitano:  22%

Colorado
De Blasio:   34%
Booker:       34%
Napolitano:  32%

Georgia   
Booker:   63%
De Blasio:    22%
Napolitano:  15%

Massachusetts
Booker:   50%
De Blasio:    41%
Napolitano:   9%

Minnesota
Booker:   41%
De Blasio:    38%
Napolitano:  20%

Oklahoma
De Blasio:  40%
Booker:   36%
Napolitano: 24%

Tennessee
Booker:   57%
De Blasio:    30%
Napolitano:  13%

Texas
Booker:    54%
De Blasio:     25%
Napolitano:   21%

Vermont
De Blasio:  51%
Booker:   39%
Napolitano: 9%

Virginia
Booker: 55%
De Blasio:  31%
Napolitano: 14%

**Booker wins 9 super Tuesday states, De Blasio 3. Napolitano, having underperformed despite endorsements from Villaraigosa and Obama, will drop out. De Blasio will soldier on despite the fact that local NYC area pols have called on him to step aside**

March 5: Super Saturday

Kansas
De Blasio: 56%
Booker: 44%

Louisiana
Booker: 70%
De Blasio: 29%

Nebraska
De Blasio: 52%
Booker: 48%

**Ahead of the Maine Caucuses, De Blasio, desperate for a strong turnout in the northeast, announces that he would choose Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT as his running mate. Booker received endorsements before Maine from Obama and Maine's Dem Congressmembers**

March 6: Maine Caucuses
De Blasio:   51%
Booker:   49%

**Despite pouring tremendous resources into Maine, Booker was unable to win the Caucuses and De Blasio lives another day. Booker is getting closer than De Blasio to the magic number of 2383, but De Blasio/Sanders vows to double-team Booker, who will not announce any VP or cabinet choices until after the primary, until every vote is counted**

March 8 Primaries

Michigan:
Booker:   50%
De Blasio:   50%

Mississippi:
Booker:    79%
De Blasio:     20%

**In a rare, candid move, Sen. Chuck Schumer calls on De Blasio to end the race and unite behind Booker. Meanwhile, polling nationally, Booker leads De Blasio 51% to 41%.**

March 12: Northern Mariana Islands
Booker wins all delegates

March 15: Super Tuesday Parte Dos

Florida
Booker: 65%
De Blasio: 34%

Illinois
Booker: 54%
De Blasio:  45%

Missouri
Booker: 54%
De Blasio:  45%

North Carolina
Booker:  56%
De Blasio:   40%

Ohio
Booker:   55%
De Blasio:    44%

**After a shellacking in Super Tuesday Dos, President Clinton is reported to have called her onetime friend and ally, de Blasio, asking him to drop out of the race instead of prolonging an unnecessary primary when Cory Booker could be taking on Donald Trump. De Blasio publicizes this phone call, infuriating the Clinton camp.**

March 21: Democrats Abroad
De Blasio wins most delegates here

**Napolitano campaigns extensively with Booker in the West*

March 22: West Contests

Arizona
Booker:  60%
De Blasio:   37%

Idaho
De Blasio:  54%
Booker:      46%

Utah
De Blasio: 55%
Booker:   45%

**Irritated by De Blasio's wins, Booker calls on De Blasio to release his communications with "agents of the city," a controversy that has dogged his approval rating back home. Among NYC Democrats, his approval rating is only 40%**

March 26: West Caucuses

Alaska
De Blasio:  55%
Booker: 44%

Hawaii
De Blasio:  53%
Booker:   47%

Washington
De Blasio:   60%
Booker:  40%

**Booker's campaign releases ads accusing De Blasio running mate, Sanders, of being "in bed" with the gun lobby. The ad shows an older, bald man sleeping "in bed" next to a gun.**

April 5: Wisconsin Primary
Booker:   51%
De Blasio:   49%

**In a bruising, nasty primary battle, Booker pulled off a solid but small 2-point victory in Wisconsin. Introducing De Blasio at what was thought to be a victory party earlier in the night, Sanders insisted that the Wisconsin primary has been "stolen" from the voters. This primary was so especially important to the De Blasio campaign because the April 19 NY primary polling showed De Blasio's lead over Booker continuing to shrink. The latest poll has De Blasio at 41%, Booker at 40%.**

April 9: Wyoming Caucuses
De Blasio: 57%
Booker:  43%

**NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo formally endorses Booker on the same day as De Blasio's double-digit victory in Wyoming. De Blasio decried Cuomo as a "right-wing hack," and urged New Yorkers to take heed from his campaign's momentum. NYC's entire Congressional delegation (except for Rep. Yvette Clarke), has endorsed Booker following the Wisconsin/Wyoming contests**

April 19: Big Apple NY Primary
Booker: 52%
De Blasio:  48%

**The De Blasio campaign spent literally all of its remaining cash on hand on the NY primary. Sensing a shift toward Booker, De Blasio spent heavily in upstate NY. It paid off for him there. De Blasio won much of the North Country and the Hudson Valley area. De Blasio also did well in progressive, white parts of NYC. But Booker trounced De Blasio in vote-rich Jewish communities, Latino and black communities, and NYC suburbs such as Nassau and Westchester, as well as the Buffalo and Rochester area. De Blasio has vowed to continue his campaign. President Clinton released a statement congratulating Booker on a "pivotal win" and thanked De Blasio for his campaign to succeed her, saying it was a "valiant effort" and that the people of New York should "change the course of the race."

**Pressed on whether she has endorsed Booker, on an interview with Robin Roberts of ABC, President Clinton says "I voted for Cory Booker back home in New York. I voted for him because I know him, I believe in him, and, at this point, I can't imagine anyone better to secure our progress at home and abroad.**

April 26: Super Tuesday III

Connecticut
Booker: 52%
De Blasio:  46%

Delaware
Booker:  66%
De Blasio:  32%

Maryland
Booker:  70%
De Blasio:  29%

Pennsylvania
Booker:  60%
De Blasio:   38%

Rhode Island
Booker:  49%
De Blasio:   49%

**De Blasio drops out and after several weeks endorses Booker**

BOOKER VEEPSTAKES

Original List of Candidates Vetted for Vice President
NOTE: these candidates are listed in order of what is generally considered their ranking for VP selection
* Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
* Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
* Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
* Fmr. Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
* U.S. Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO)
* Fmr. Sec. of Veterans Affairs Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
* U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA)
* Fmr. Sec. of State John Kerry (D-MA)
* Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)
* Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
* Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
* Gov. Barack Obama (D-IL)
* Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)

Short-List just before convention
* Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
* Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
* Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
* Fmr. Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
* U.S. Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO)

IT'S POLIS



BOOKER NOMINATED JARED POLIS FOR VP! IF ELECTED, POLIS WOULD BE THE FIRST OPENLY LGBT and FIRST JEWISH PERSON IN THE WHITE HOUSE.


ELECTION RESULTS



BOOKER/POLIS:  53%
TRUMP/PENCE:   45%

358-180.

President Booker and VP Polis replace the Clinton White House. The End Smiley
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Corker and Ernst withdraw on: July 06, 2016, 07:45:50 pm
Anyone else think Trump will maybe pick another outsider?

Like a surprise pick to build up excitement?

*Larry Ellis, retired United States Army general, who served as the Commander of U.S. Army Forces Command from November 19, 2001 until 2004.
*Carlos Gutierrez, former Commerce Secy and Kellogg CEO
*Margaret Spellings, former Education Secy
*JC Watts?
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Andrew Cuomo 2018? on: July 05, 2016, 08:06:13 pm
I can't help but think that Cuomo will want to cut his losses and not run for a third term, but, as of late, it looks like he's gearing up to run again
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-Democratic convention discussion on: July 04, 2016, 06:36:41 pm
I think keynote will be Tammy Duckworth or Cortez Masto.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Race to Replace President Clinton on: June 30, 2016, 08:52:18 pm
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY



RESULTS:

41.2% De Blasio
28.5% Booker
16.5% Obama
10.3% Napolitano
3.5% Manchin

DE BLASIO ROUTS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE; OBAMA QUITS; CLINTON WORLD UNSETTLED; BOOKER GOES FULL STEAM AHEAD TO DETHRONE HIZZONER

Flanked by support of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and local liberal politicians, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) blew his supporters out of the water, causing Obama and Manchin to drop out of the race altogether. Clinton camp insiders are growing extremely nervous that De Blasio, who has had a somewhat icy relationship with Clinton since he was inaugurated mayor in January 2014, will hurt her legacy either by losing the general election or by ignoring the very important accomplishments made during her presidency. De Blasio has criticized President Clinton as not being liberal enough and too considered with pandering to what he has described as the "tepid middle." Recently, former Clinton aide Maggie Williams, who serves now as a pundit on CNN, suggested that De Blasio had "little juice left" to run a serious national campaign. De Blasio, who has refused to take donations from corporations or developers (though will accept from lobbyists, PACs, etc), has just $1 million in funds though he is expected to receive strong financial backing after his victory in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) are expected to back Booker, hoping to bring a major blow or at least a slowdown to De Blasio's surging campaign.

DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE COUNT (including super delegates) [2383 delegates to win]

BOOKER:     48
DE BLASIO: 31
NAPOLITANO: 9

**NOTE: DOWN TO THREE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES...I have not listed which super delegates have backed which candidate because Gov. Barack Obama (D-IL) and his super delegates will make a major endorsement, and there is going to be a major movement among super delegates.

Stay tuned!
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Gays on: June 30, 2016, 08:08:29 pm
#WereWithHer

As in you "were with her" until Trump came along?

No, as in "we are" with her, but, you can't put an apostrophe in a hashtag, silly Tongue
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Gays on: June 29, 2016, 09:53:04 pm
#WereWithHer
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY13 primary race? on: June 24, 2016, 12:59:30 pm
Race to replace Rangel. Any thoughts?
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Race to Replace President Clinton on: June 19, 2016, 02:06:36 pm
IOWA CAUCUSES

DEMOCRATS


De Blasio
Booker
Obama
Villaraigosa

DE BLASIO, BOOKER TOP CAUCUSES IN PICTURE PERFECT FINISH; VILLARAIGOSA, BIDEN DROP OUT

RESULTS:

24.5% Booker
24.1% de Blasio
20.4% Obama
15.5% Villaraigosa
7.3% Napolitano
4.3% Manchin
2.5% Biden

NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) surged to a near-win in Iowa tonight, bested by New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ). Flanked by the growing movement to reform the campaign finance system and the desire to tackle income inequality, de Blasio surged ahead of his better-known opponents winning in Iowa's cities and college campuses, as well as rural areas amenable to the first-term mayor's populist message. Support for de Blasio was also buoyed by the endorsement of "progressive lions" in Democratic politics including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Florida Rep. Alan Grayson, who would like to join Sanders in the Senate this year. Clinton allies are weary that de Blasio's success could potentially undermine her legacy in the White House, since many de Blasio supporters wish that Clinton would be "more liberal." Meanwhile, Booker's first place result has reportedly pleased the Clinton White House, who is said to be supporting Booker.

Gov. Barack Obama (D-IL) scored a disappointing but strong third-place finish, just 8 years after he relished in a surprise victory against Clinton and Edwards. Obama vowed to stay in the race at least through the early states to garner momentum and build a stronger campaign. Vice President Antonio Villaraigosa (D-CA) dropped out of the race at a rally in Los Angeles, urging Democrats to unite behind a candidate that "urges government to do more." Beltway pundits suggest that Villaraigosa, a former big-city mayor, may be leaning toward endorsing colleague de Blasio depending on the results of the New Hampshire primary. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) dropped out and endorsed Sen. Booker at a speech in Iowa. Despite disappointing results, Former Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) insist that they are in the race for the long-haul.

DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE COUNT (including super delegates) [2383 delegates to win]

BOOKER: 39
DE BLASIO: 15
OBAMA: 15
VILLARAIGOSA: 6
NAPOLITANO: 6
MANCHIN: 3
BIDEN: 3

REPUBLICANS



IF ANYONE IS INTERESTED I CAN PROVIDE A LIST OF SUPER DELEGATES AND WHO THEY ARE BACKING

NEXT UP: IOWA CAUCUSES DIGEST/DISCUSSION AND NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS
37  About this Site / The Atlas / How to upload a picture that you've cropped downloaded? on: June 17, 2016, 02:20:55 pm
Besides posting a link in the text box, how do you upload a pic that you've edited/cropped in the forum for a thread?
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Race to Replace President Clinton on: June 11, 2016, 04:41:46 pm
If all the same events occurred, why did Hillary win a landslide in 2012?

Better campaign?

Yep...Iowa Caucus results coming soon BTW.

Anyone have predictions?
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: District of Columbia Primary (D -June 14) on: June 11, 2016, 07:33:52 am
Ward 6 has a lot of earthy progressive whites that will go for Sanders. I also expect him to get a lot of the white voters in Wards 1 and 4.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Schumer's Protege? on: June 10, 2016, 07:27:30 am
If Schumer were to retire, who would his likely Democratic successor and/or protege be?
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Race to Replace President Clinton on: June 10, 2016, 07:11:19 am
Will we get a Republican race? Is Kasich doing better in NH ITTL?

For the Democrats, my current ranking is:
1. Joe Manchin
2. Joe Biden
3. Jared Polis

I'd have trouble supporting any of the other Democratic candidates. Manchin and Biden should focus on SC or Florida, IMO.

I am going to post GOP race results in my next post when I start with actual primary contests (first obviously the IA caucuses, but in terms of who has entered the race, it is going to mimic exactly what we saw this year. Also, in this TL, Polis decided against taking the plunge and running for president but he's not exactly going away Wink More to come
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2016: The Race to Replace President Clinton on: June 09, 2016, 08:57:37 pm
SUMMER AND FALL 2015: KICKING 2016 IN TO HIGH GEAR



He's in! NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) has jumped into the 2016 presidential race and has dominated much of the conversation over the summer and fall, focused on campaign finance reform, income inequality and fixing what he called a "Tale of Two Americas," which has become a central campaign theme.


Meanwhile, Congressmembers Jared Polis (D-CO) and Xavier Becerra (D-CA) who were widely considered to be leaning toward running have announced that they will not run.



CNN hosted a September 2015 Democratic candidates forum which was characterized by several news outlets as "boring," a "yawn fest," and "tame" compared to the wily Republican primaries in which Donald Trump (R-NY) has emerged as frontrunner. One point of note was that Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) appeared particularly anxious to discard Gov. Barack Obama (D-IL) as "amateurish" and "a good guy, but old news" after Obama criticized Booker's tenure as mayor of Newark. They were interrupted by former Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) who said "while you boys are fighting, let's have a strong woman intervene and talk about how to actually get things done." All 6 declared Democratic candidates were on stage.


OCTOBER SURPRISE! In what was considered a surprise to many, Vice President Antonio Villaraigosa (D-CA) who flirted with running for president and was hesitant to enter the race, has made a late surprise entrance to the race.

NATIONAL POLL <December 2015>
Post-Villaraigosa

CNN
20% Villaraigosa
20% Obama
20% Booker
14% De Blasio
8% Napolitano
3% Biden
1% Manchin
14% undecided


IOWA POLL <December 2015>

Selzer/DMR
24% Obama
21% Booker
14% Villaraigosa
14% De Blasio
7% Napolitano
4% Manchin
4% Biden
12% undecided

STAY TUNED FOR IOWA CAUCUSES RESULTS NEXT

43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Shellacking on: June 07, 2016, 11:08:53 pm
Clinton has declared herself the nominee. Sanders is going to be under tremendous pressure to end things.

This won't stop his followers from fighting.

"Clinton has declared herself the nominee," But like, not really. It's pretty clear that Hillary has decisively won this primary contest on every single, last metric, no matter how it's sliced.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Shellacking on: June 07, 2016, 11:01:31 pm
At this point, I think it's pretty clear that Hillary over performed expectations (perhaps not in NM), but in the aggregate. It's clear that Sanders has not captured any momentum in the Final Tuesday (as is the typical case, where Sanders is unable to do well in a competitive multi-state primary event).

So, with this shellacking, can Sanders REALLY go on to the convention/not drop out this week?
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 10:23:52 pm
At this point would we say that Hillary is over performing, underperforming, performing on par for CA?
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 07:09:26 pm
Hillary winning in largely white, rural Warren Co. Good sign for her in NJ?
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Some campaign aides urging Bernie to quit after Tuesday on: June 05, 2016, 08:12:03 pm
http://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-campaign-is-split-over-whether-to-fight-on-past-tuesday-1465171997
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Puerto Rico Democratic primary results thread (8am - 3pm EST) on: June 05, 2016, 07:38:03 pm


Clinton campaign is very bullish on the results tonight. Using the phrase "any minute" to describe Clinton's pending nomination.

I just don't see the strategy behind this? Anger the already rabid Sanders supporters and possibly soften support for Hillary among people who might not think it's necessary to vote on Tuesday? Can someone explain this to me.

#ImWithHer but I'm not with this messaging right now..
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Warren endorse Clinton tomorrow? on: June 05, 2016, 04:58:58 pm
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/06/05/elizabeth-warren-superdelegate-says-doesnt-believe-superdelegates

While she criticized super delegates, she said they shouldn't sway the primary and should fall in line with who leads in pledged delegates. Do you think she's getting ready to endorse Clinton before Final Tuesday? This might be a good way to dominate last minute headlines before such a critical day.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Puerto Rico Democratic primary results thread (8am - 3pm EST) on: June 05, 2016, 04:04:48 pm
Some votes have trickled in
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