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April 30, 2017, 05:23:48 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:02:39 pm
Can anyone explain the reason for the seriously slow counting?
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 07:23:34 pm
What were the benchmarks of what Ossoff needs to win?
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 07:07:34 pm
Imagine if Ossoff got 49.98%.

It's possible
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:51:22 pm

Do they have a live podcast or something you're listening to?

Also--anyone getting weird Adware looking things on DDHQ?
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:49:42 pm
First results coming in now.
link??
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:34:13 pm
UGH GIMME RESULTSSSS
IT'S BEEN THREE WHOLE MINUTES I NEED MY FIX

yaaaas it's true
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:32:33 pm
UGH GIMME RESULTSSSS
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:22:27 pm
Still predicting that Ossoff hits the 50% benchmark.

I'm heartened by the fact that both Handel and Gray have some potentially fatal flaws in a runoff, that being said, I also think the Ossoff campaign ran a very effective campaign for the preliminary round and I'm thinking 50.0%+
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:58:48 pm
Ah I see, gotcha. Never been to ATL but I'd like to at some point.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:55:22 pm
Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

What do you mean?
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:50:24 pm
Any idea when first results are expected? Will they wait to post ANY results until the two Fulton Co. precincts being kept open are done voting?
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:41:48 pm
Anyone with some links to good results pages tonight?

Honestly, updating this thread is probably a top notch source for vote updates

True. I usually do that anyway but really like to see the raw data.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:39:35 pm
Anyone with some links to good results pages tonight?
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:32:03 pm
From the Atlanta Journal Constitution live blog

Updated at 6:15 p.m. Reading the tea leaves

Political analysts are getting wound up about a pair of Sandy Springs districts that could signal a stronger-than-expected Democratic turnout.

The first is a precinct that Democrat Michelle Nunn won with 78 percent of the vote in 2014, meaning that it’s a trove of potential votes for Democrat Jon Ossoff. Turnout in that precinct has nearly doubled on Tuesday, an astounding fete for a special election.

The second is a precinct in a more conservative stretch of Sandy Springs where Nunn only got about a third of the votes. Turnout there is only about half of what it was in 2014.

“That ain’t good,” texted one GOP operative.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special Election Predictions on: April 18, 2017, 05:15:04 pm
Ossoff is gonna win outright with 53% of the vote. Handel will come in second place.

Oh how I desire for this to be true. I think he can and will pull it off just above 50.0%
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:14:05 pm
As a Democrat and a Mets fan I am used to heart break. All I can think about tonight is a continued tale of woe. Hope the streak breaks because this year has been very sad to watch.

Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. Tonight will be a win for Ossof if he gets 47 or above.

I agree but there are two groups I am concerned about.

1. Trump and Trump supporters who will think that a runoff validates the incredible amount of incompetence and "bad presidenting" coming from the White House

2. Disenchanted Dems who will see not an outright win and think "Forget it, the DNC is done, I'm going back to not voting."
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 05:08:47 pm
As a Democrat and a Mets fan I am used to heart break. All I can think about tonight is a continued tale of woe. Hope the streak breaks because this year has been very sad to watch.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / If they both win... on: April 17, 2017, 06:57:47 pm
Perriello/Ossoff 2020?
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 17, 2017, 06:36:09 pm
Just to be clear, Ossoff would need 50% + 1 vote to win tomorrow right?

So if 50,000 people voted, he'd need 25,001 votes to win outright, correcT?
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are you genuinely excited for election day in GA-6? on: April 17, 2017, 05:14:48 pm
I'm excited but I am constantly disappointed and bitter about the fact that the GOP can finagle wins in Massachusetts (Brown v Warren) or NYC (Bob Turner for Anthony Weiner's seat) but the Dems struggle to win in GOP areas.

**I grew up in Weiner's seat...I know it's not Brownstone Brooklyn liberal. I know.

What about Kathy Hochul's 2011 (I think) special election victory?

Yeah that was an exception I suppose, though that was partly due to 3rd party Tea Party candidate. To be honest I wasn't that plugged into politics until the 2008 election and wasn't able to vote in presidential elections until 2012 so I don't recall all the pre-Obama specials, but as of late it feels like Dems have problems organizing and closing the deal.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are you genuinely excited for election day in GA-6? on: April 17, 2017, 03:21:00 pm
I'm excited but I am constantly disappointed and bitter about the fact that the GOP can finagle wins in Massachusetts (Brown v Warren) or NYC (Bob Turner for Anthony Weiner's seat) but the Dems struggle to win in GOP areas.

**I grew up in Weiner's seat...I know it's not Brownstone Brooklyn liberal. I know.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / DEMS: If there's a GA-06 runoff, who do you HOPE faces Ossoff? on: April 17, 2017, 12:44:24 pm
For me it's definitely Handel. She has a history of underperforming in her races.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 17, 2017, 12:35:43 pm
So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special Election Predictions on: April 17, 2017, 10:02:39 am
Delicious    50% (straddling the 50% mark)
Hill            16%
Handel       16%
Gray          10%
Moody        5%
Other         3%

Outright win by Ossoff but result not declared until next day because win constantly fluctuates between 49.9% and 50.1%
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Sweet Caroline on: April 14, 2017, 07:36:49 pm
SUMMER / FALL 2015: BIDEN WON'T RUN; THE PILE ON BEGINS


Flanked by the support of his wife, Dr. Jill Biden and President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden announced that he would not seek the presidency. With Secretary Clinton and Vice President Biden out of the running, the perceived obligation to carry on President Obama's legacy fell onto the shoulders of lesser-known Democrats.

Elizabeth Warren: Massachusetts' senior senator launched her campaign for the presidency in June 2015, landing top campaign talent on her campaign, including former Clinton adviser Jake Sullivan, who will direct Warren's campaign foreign policy portfolio. Secretary Clinton has given her "blessing" to her aides joining the Warren campaign (among others), for waiting for the Secretary to decide not to run. Warren polls well among Democrats, especially Democratic and independent women, but is running a less aggressive campaign than most thought she would. Her fundraising has not been strong, and her campaign appearances have been largely limited, focused mainly on Iowa and New Hampshire. Some question if Warren will ultimately remain in the race.

Martin O'Malley: The former Maryland governor has spent so much time in Iowa that he could pay Iowa taxes--as he reminds Iowa voters verbatim, in his "dozen-a-day" campaign stops across Iowa. O'Malley has raised little money, but has garnered a number of endorsements from local legislators in Iowa, and his hoping his grassroots campaign will pay off in the February 2017 caucuses.

Julian Castro: The Obama HUD Secretary began his campaign shortly after Vice President Biden's announcement. Saddled with personnel and fundraising issues, Castro opted to end his campaign in September 2015, and withheld his endorsement.

Cory Booker: The energetic New Jersey senator is expected to be a top contender for the Democratic nomination. Booker retained the services of John Pedesta and Anita Dunn, using much of the Obama / (anticipated) Clinton campaign apparatus. Booker, like Warren, has struggled to create a campaign theme, other than Obama continuity, and has come under fire for corporate donations from big pharmaceuticals and banks. The Booker campaign has invested little in New Hampshire, anticipating a Warren win there, and will instead aim for first place finishes in Iowa and South Carolina.

Caroline Kennedy: After being nominated by Gov. Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, Caroline Kennedy quickly grew into her own image as a Democratic rabble-rouser who often found herself a thorn in the side of the Democratic establishment. After her appointment to the Senate, Gov. Paterson announced that he would run for a full term, against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo who was hoping to clear the field of Gov. Paterson. The 2010 primary drew blood. Sen. Kennedy invited her uncle, the ailing Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, to record endorsement messages on behalf of Gov. Paterson. Ted Kennedy even joined Gov. Paterson on the campaign trail in early 2009, just weeks after his niece was appointed to the Senate. In the closest gubernatorial primary in New York history, David Paterson edged Andrew Cuomo 49.44% to 49.33%. Paterson's victory was flanked by black and Hispanic voters as well as young, white, progressive voters. Cuomo earned the support of suburban Democrats and voters in upstate. Going forward, Sen. Caroline Kennedy embraced "uncommon" causes, including bold criminal justice reform, free college tuition, ending ICE deportations, and creating a national single payer health program. Her campaign theme: America's Revolution.

Gov. John Hickenlooper: The affable Colorado governor has gained little traction in the race. The essence of his campaign is clean, competent governance for a race that sorely needs "an adult in the room."

BET CEO Debra Lee: Ms. Lee, a political neophyte, is centering her campaign around entrepreneurship, increased jobs, and safer cities. Interestingly, Ms. Lee polls best among more conservative white Democrats.

With just 6 Democrats in the race, the field was expected to winnow quickly.

Here are the FINAL POLLS nationally, in Iowa, and New Hampshire.

NATIONAL:
Warren           29%
Booker           24%
Kennedy         19%
Lee                   4%
O'Malley           3%
Hickenlooper   2%
Undecided       19%

IOWA:
Booker            25%
Warren            24%
Kennedy          23%
O'Malley          11%
Lee                   6%
Hickenlooper     2%
Undecided         9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Warren             30%
Booker             18%
Kennedy           16%
Lee                   6%
O'Malley            3%
Hickenlooper      3%
Undecided        25%

NEXT POST: IOWA CAUCUSES 2016 *note, 2016 GOP race will be exactly the same as IRL*
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