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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the appeal of Cory Booker? on: November 15, 2016, 10:34:07 am
I like that he was a mayor of an urban center
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Presidency of Condoleezza Rice on: November 14, 2016, 09:27:09 pm
2018 MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS
CONDI CATCHES HEAT, BUT NOT HELL, AND LOSES HELLER


2018 Senate Races

ARIZONA

JEFF FLAKE* (R)            50%
KIRSEN SYNEMA (D)      49%

CALIFORNIA 

JULIAN CASTRO (D)        53.5%
ROBERT REICH (D)                 46.5%

FLORIDA

PATRICK MURPHY (D) 49%
CARLOS CUBELO (R)        48%

INDIANA

JOE DONNELLY* (D)  51%
MIKE PENCE (R)              48%

MASSACHUSETTS

ELIZABETH WARREN* (D)   66%
CURT SCHILLING (R)                  29%

MISSOURI

CLAIRE MCCASKILL* (D)    50%
ANN WAGNER (R)                   49%

MONTANA

JON TESTER* (D)          53%
MARC RACICOT (R)            44%

NEVADA +1 D

LUCY FLORES (D)      49%
DEAN HELLER* (R)        47%

NEW JERSEY

MILLY SILVA (D)   52%
TOM KEAN, JR. (R)    47%

NORTH DAKOTA

HEIDI HEITKAMP* (D)   53%
DREW WRIGLEY (R)           46%

OHIO

SHERROD BROWN* (D)   53%
MIKE DEWINE (R)                45%

PENNSYLVANIA

JOHN FETTERMAN (D)       51%
JIM CAWLEY (R)                    47%

TEXAS

TED CRUZ* (R)    55%
WENDY DAVIS (D)      42%

VIRGINIA

TIM KAINE* (D)         54%
KEN CUCCINELLI (R)  44%

WEST VIRGINIA

JOE MANCHIN* (R)  53%
NATALIE TENNANT (D)  43%

WISCONSIN

TAMMY BALDWIN* (D)   52%
SCOTT WALKER (R)             48%

2018 Governor Races

ARIZONA

DOUG DUCEY* (R)          50%
RICHARD CARMONA (D)         47%

CALIFORNIA

GAVIN NEWSOM (D)       59%
PETER THIELE (R)                 41%

COLORADO

MICHAEL HANCOCK (D)     48%
KEN BUCK (R)                        47%

CONNECTICUT +1 R

TOM FOLEY* (R)          49%
NANCY WYMAN (D)           49%

FLORIDA +1D

GWEN GRAHAM (D)      52%
PAM BONDI (R)                  47%

ILLINOIS +1D

Penny Pritzker (D)        53%
BRUCE RAUNER (R)           46%

IOWA

KIM REYNOLDS (R)       54%
ROB HOGG (D)                  46%

MASSACHUSETTS

CHARLIE BAKER* (R)     55%
SETTI WARREN (D)             44%

MARYLAND

LARRY HOGAN* (R)    53%
TOM PEREZ (D)               46%

MAINE

SUSAN COLLINS (R)     52%
MIKE MICHAUD (D)            46%

MICHIGAN +1 D

GRETCHEN WHITMER (D)  51%
BILL SCHUETTE (R)                48%

MINNESOTA

LORI SWANSON (D)    54%
MICHELE BACHMANN (R) 45%

NEVADA

CATHERINE CORTEZ-MASTO (D)  52%
MARK AMODEI (R)                           48%

NEW MEXICO +1D

HECTOR BALDERAS (D)     53%
JOHN SANCHEZ (R)                47%

NEW YORK +1R

DONALD TRUMP (R)       40% 
ANDREW CUOMO* (D)        40%
ZEPHYR TEACHOUT (WFP)   20%

OHIO

MARY TAYLOR* (R)   52%
JOHN CRANLEY (D)       47%

PENNSYLVANIA

TOM WOLF* (D)      54%
RICK SANTORUM (R)    43%

VERMONT

NINA TURNER (D)   46%
PHIL SCOTT (R)*         45%

WISCONSIN

KATHLEEN FALK (D)     49%
DAVID A CLARKE, JR. (R)  48%

Analysis: The biggest story line of Election Night 2018 was not necessarily the make up of Congress. Republicans only lost a few seats in the House, and now have a 53-47 lead in the Senate, shaved 1 seat from 54-46, with the loss of Dean Heller to Lucy Flores in Nevada. Instead, the biggest story was the election of 'outsider' candidates to prominent office. From 'carpetbaggers' to 'average Joes,' candidates on the Democratic line won prominent offices around the country.

Some shocking results include the election of Lucy Flores, John Fetterman and Milly Silva to the U.S. Senate, as well as Nina Turner elected governor of her newly adopted home state of Vermont.

In addition, Republicans lost numerous governorships, perhaps indicting her administration's handling of executive policies.

These results will have some certain effects on the impending 2020 primary elections. Voters on Election Night 2018 had a 45% approval rating for Rice, while 51% disapprove.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dark horse Democrats for 2020? on: November 14, 2016, 06:31:51 pm
I think Sherrod Brown takes the cake in this category
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Presidency of Condoleezza Rice on: November 13, 2016, 08:24:25 pm
Who do you all think will emerge as an early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination against Pres. Rice?
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would you like if the Democrats nominate a queer for POTUS in 2020? on: November 13, 2016, 11:51:52 am
As a gay man, I find the use of the phrase "a queer," a little troubling, but, there are some great LGBTQ candidates who could emerge on the national scene: Gov. Kate Brown, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Rep. Jared Polis, etc.
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Heartbroken on: November 12, 2016, 12:45:57 pm
I feel like I've had a death in the family. Is anyone else experiencing trauma/grief?
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Trump pull off this map if he makes ALL promises in 2020? on: November 12, 2016, 12:45:04 pm
Honestly it's possible that 2020 is a total disaster for Democrats. We do not have even the remotely the infrastructure we thought we did. We have 4 years (really less) to get it together. Will we?
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / 2020 Dem primaries - if I had to guess on: November 12, 2016, 12:43:30 pm
There's lots of talk about superstars entering the race: Warren, Booker, Castro, Harris, etc. But Democratic primaries almost always come down to two candidates and also-rans.

So, if I had to guess, there will be STAR 1 + STAR 2 + everybody else.

For example, I could see: WARREN + BOOKER + Cuomo/Kaine/Gabbard or WARREN + HARRIS + everybody else, etc.

I just don't see a scenario where "all the stars" converge on a primary a la 2016 GOP Primary. But maybe I'm wrong?
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Presidency of Condoleezza Rice on: November 11, 2016, 06:47:10 pm
What are the details of CondiCare? Is it like Wyden-Bennett, BaucusCare, or its own thing entirely?

CONDICARE BASICS


Condi Rice implemented Speaker Paul Ryan's 'Better Way Health Plan."

Mainly state innovation grants for each state to implement health care reform and market regulation plan. National health care exchanges were eliminated and automatically enrolled to federal-state partnership exchanges. The problem is that many of the state exchanges rollouts were bungled.

https://abetterway.speaker.gov/_assets/pdf/ABetterWay-HealthCare-PolicyPaper.pdf
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / DNC 2017 chair election on: November 11, 2016, 11:28:59 am
How does one "declare?" And how does one get voted in?
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Dark horse Democrats for 2020? on: November 10, 2016, 11:09:21 pm
Besides Warren/Booker/Gillibrand/Castro/Cuomo etc, are they are any *viable* dark horses you can think of?
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nina Turner 2020? on: November 10, 2016, 11:05:22 pm
She's a former state legislator is this a joke?
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Presidency of Condoleezza Rice on: November 10, 2016, 10:59:50 pm
CONDICARE?
Summer 2018


President Rice's decision to (finally) sign the repeal of the Affordable Care Act was at first met with approval by the American people. After a drastic increase in premium costs, 50% of Americans supported a repeal, while 44% opposed. But by the end of summer 2018, the rate of uninsured Americans had increased dramatically. Initially, the uninsured rate dropped from 8.3% of Americans to 8.1% of Americans, but costs eventually increased again over the course of the summer, and the health insurance saving accounts began to cover an increasingly smaller amount of health care costs. By August 2018, 8.9% of Americans were again uninsured.

In other news, the U.S. military intervention in ISIS territory has largely been successful. Three U.S. soldiers died in combat operations, and two passed away from complications related to a deadly staph infection that spread through a camp in Iraq.

Rice approval: 43%
Rice disapproval: 52%

2018 Senate Race Rankings

AZ: Jeff Flake* (R) vs. Kirsten Synema (D)

LEAN REPUBLICAN

Rep. Synema has emerged as a tough challenger to Sen. Flake. Syneman has hammered Flake on Rice's ACA repeal, and has rallied Latino voters by citing Flake's failure to lead on immigration reform.

CA: Julian Castro (D) vs. Robert Reich (D) 

SAFE DEMOCRAT

Both Julian Castro and Robert Reich are Democrats. Neither of them have particularly close ties to California. Both were seemingly encouraged to run by outsiders. Fascinatingly, both men have earned very negative approval ratings, and a reputation as carpetbaggers.

Castro performs well in Los Angeles and southern California, while Reich leads heavily in northern California, and has received a base of financial support from Silicon Valley.

FL: Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Carlos Cubelo (R)

TOSSUP

This seat held by Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson may easily have turned Republican in a midterm election year. But the failures in the NIRA infrastructure law to address climate change have become a central issue in the campaign, and Rep. Cubelo (R) is on the defense.

IN: Joe Donnelly* (D) vs. Mike Pence (R)

TOSSUP

Sen. Donnelly, the incumbent, received accolades from white working class and rural Indiana voters for supporting the massive farm subsidies in the CAFFA law, passed earlier last year. But Mike Pence, the somewhat popular governor, has hit a nerve on issues of national security--Sen. Donnelly has consistently opposed military intervention in Iraq and Syria against ISIS, and Gov. Pence has gained enough ground on Donnelly, painting him as "weak," that the race is now a tossup.

MA: Elizabeth Warren* (D) vs. Curt Schilling


SAFE DEMOCRAT

Curt Schilling's campaign against incumbent Sen. Warren (D) has gained national attention not for his success, but for his vitriol and insult-driven effort to unseat her. He suggested in a radio interview that Sen. Warren was "an obvious lesbian" and ridiculed her "professorial, nerd style."

MO: Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R)


LEAN DEMOCRAT

Though she represents an increasingly conservative state, Sen. McCaskill (D) has neatly painted her opponent as a Condi Rice rubber stamp. Rice has a 46% approval, 49% disapproval rating in Missouri, and is likely providing Sen. McCaskill with her only shot of hanging on to the seat.

MT: Jon Tester* (D) vs. Marc Racicot (R)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Sen. Tester (D) has unveiled a very successful and notable populist message in Montana, which has been resonating with independent and Democratic voters very successfully. Tester painted his opponent, Marc Racicot (R), a former Montana governor, RNC Chair, and lobbyist, as a "Washington insider" and the "ultimate D.C. elitist." Needless to say, the NRSC laments that Racicot has failed to pick up momentum in this rather reliably Republican state.

Watch for Tester presidential rumblings.

NV: Dean Heller* (R) vs. Lucy Flores (D)


LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Nevada Assemblymember and political activist Lucy Flores (D), a protege of Sens. Sanders and Warren was considered the least electable of the Democratic primary bunch to face off against incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R). But Flores has struggled to raise funds and possibly made a fatal error when she snubbed a Spanish-speaking radio station debate with the incumbent.

NJ: Milly Silva (D) vs. Thomas Kean, Jr. (R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN

Labor activist Milly Silva (D) has trailed NJ Senate GOP Leader Tom Kean Jr by mid-high single-digits the entire campaign. 26% of Democrats opine that Silva is "too liberal" to their liking.

ND: Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs. Drew Wrigley (R)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Lt. Gov. Wrigley (R) has been dogged by admissions of extramarital affairs and paltry fundraising, combined with the fact that Sen. Heitkamp (D) has a record of bipartisan leadership on agriculture and infrastructure issues, as well as gun rights. The NRSC thinks it can pick up seats more easily elsewhere, and has pulled out of investing in the state.

OH: Sherrod Brown* (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R)

SAFE DEMOCRAT

If ever there were a troubling sign for the Rice administration, it probably exists in this Senate race. White working class independent voters hold just a 35% approval rating of President Rice, while 59% disapprove. The repeal of the ACA has negatively affected these voters, and Sen. Brown (D) is in a strong position to return to Washington, D.C. as a result.

PA: John Fetterman (D) vs. Jim Cawley (R)

LEAN DEMOCRAT

See the above analysis, despite Fetterman's low name-recognition. Plus, former Pres. Obama has campaigned for him twice in Philly.

TX: Ted Cruz (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

The most recent poll in this race had incumbent Ted Cruz (R) leading Wendy Davis 49% to 39%. These numbers are not exactly a clear blow out, but, Cruz holds the advantage in this deep red state. The NRSC has virtually refused to assist in any material way, and has not disbursed a penny of financial or in kind support.

VA: Tim Kaine* (D) vs. Ken Cuccinelli (R)

SAFE DEMOCRAT

Just like in 2008, in 2016 Sen. Kaine (D) emerged as the runner-up in the 2016 Democratic vice presidential search. With his eyes on 2020, Kaine seems headed for a landslide victory against the very unpopular former Attorney General.

WV: Joe Manchin* (R) vs. Natalie Tennant (D)


LIKELY REPUBLICAN

After switching parties, Sen. Joe Mancin (R) enjoyed Senate leadership posts and perks. But Natalie Tennant has put up a spirited challenge, considering the ACA repeal's devastating effect in West Virginia. Keep an eye out for Tennant.

WI: Tammy Baldwin* (D) vs. Scott Walker (R)

TOSSUP

Sen. Baldwin (D) has maintained very slim leads over Gov. Walker (R), and apparently has continued to lose steam heading into election day.

2020 UPDATES

Officially Exploring

- Former Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
- Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN)
- Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D-CA)
- Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)

Officially Running

- Former Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
- Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA)

Not Officially Exploring but thought to be seriously considering

- NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)
- Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO)
- U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
- U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
- Former Sec. of State John Kerry (D-MA)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
- Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
- DNC Chair and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
- Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

NEXT UP: 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS



39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Tim Kaine win the 2020 Democratic nomination? on: November 10, 2016, 08:51:23 am
I like Tim Kaine--always have, probably always will--but I don't think he was an effective surrogate for her.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's First SOTU--Democratic response on: November 10, 2016, 08:50:32 am
Who do you think it will be?

Will Dems try to appeal to white working class, maybe with Govs. Cuomo or Wolf or maybe to a younger more diverse crowd with Sens. Booker, Cortez-Masto, Harris, or Rep. Polis, etc?
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Presidency of Condoleezza Rice on: November 10, 2016, 08:43:52 am
Did Trump have a challeneger in the Republican NY primary?

Yes.

NYS- GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Businessman Donald J. Trump                  66.4%
Chemung County Thomas J. Santulli         33.6%

Trump won heavily in NYC, Long Island, Hudson Valley, and Western New York (buoyed by friend Carl Paladino), while Santulli won several counties in the Southern Tier region.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict total turnout tomorrow! on: November 08, 2016, 05:20:00 pm
I think close to 70%
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Midnight towns (NH) **results thread** on: November 07, 2016, 10:22:59 pm
Ugh it's going to suck to see the betting markets crash when those midnight towns report
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Predict total turnout tomorrow! on: November 07, 2016, 10:17:33 pm
I'd say around 65%
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What TV station will you be watching for E-Night Results? on: November 07, 2016, 09:04:35 pm
http://www.cnn.com/election/results

Results page is up. Pretty cool graphics
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Midnight towns (NH) **results thread** on: November 07, 2016, 08:35:10 pm
Question: will news networks have these results on the screen the way they would as if results were rolling in?
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 36 hours out - do you foresee any surprises? on: November 06, 2016, 07:14:08 pm
Florida will be more of a blow-out then people expect - Clinton by possibly 4 or 5.

I think so too. I think Virginia will be high single digits, and NC half of what VA is.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 36 hours out - do you foresee any surprises? on: November 06, 2016, 07:13:05 pm
What surprise outcomes do you think we're going to witness as results pour in? I think Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio are going to be surprisingly close.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What TV station will you be watching for E-Night Results? on: November 06, 2016, 07:41:44 am
I think CNN/MSNBC graphics are probably pretty decent, right? I watched the 2012 election on my computer in Spain so it's been a way since presidential results night for me.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What TV station will you be watching for E-Night Results? on: November 06, 2016, 07:18:10 am
Me: probably CNN/MSNBC/local
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