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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 D.C. Mayoral Election on: October 20, 2014, 08:49:21 pm
Any new predictions?

With Schwartz in the race, I think maybe….

Bowser 50%

Catania 36%

Schwartz 12%
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Cory Booker in trouble in NJ? on: October 10, 2014, 10:38:11 am
Lots of press this week about his opponent "closing the gap"
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Biggest UPSET of election night (besides Senate Control) on: October 01, 2014, 06:14:50 pm
Forget overall control of U.S. Senate….which race do you think will be the biggest story of Election Night? A Senate race? A governor's race?


I personally think it could be a loss for Coakley in MA or Roberts in KS.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum prediction thread on: September 18, 2014, 04:56:12 pm
Any chance that it winds up being heavily yes or heavily no? Like a 56% or something like that?
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 16, 2014, 03:45:48 pm
Can someone explain to me a little bit about the geopolitics and demographic politics of Scotland regarding this referendum.

Is independence more popular in the cities, country, with younger, older, more educated, less educated, north, south, etc?
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / D.C. Mayor Race on: September 16, 2014, 03:39:27 pm
Any thoughts? I see Catania only getting mid-high 30's...
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Hillary Clinton (Cuomo) v. Bernie Sanders (Teachout) on: September 15, 2014, 08:04:52 pm
Anyone think it's possible that if Hillary runs for president, most wind up backing out or dropping after, let's say first few states, and one candidate sticks around, a la Bernie Sanders, and winds up doing well, 35%-40% in remaining few states as a Teachout-esque protest?
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 08:29:27 pm
So Teachout is around 30% with Erie and Westchester piling in, shouldn't that be her WORST area?
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 08:11:02 pm
I think we're reading too much into that PCCC. First of all, most of those undecideds are obviously not fans of Cuomo since he is extremely well known. Secondly, it's one poll, one snapshot, in an underpolled primary.

Having said that, I think that if Zephy can get north of 30%, she will have accomplished her goal. 30% is decent. 28%-30% is a wash. Less than 28% is a poor showing.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 07:56:55 pm
Can someone provide the AP results page for NY???
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 01:43:51 pm
Question

Could reports of low turnout be good for Teachout/Wu? I think there's obviously an enthusiasm gap in favor of Teachout/Wu. Does low turnout mean that unions didn't bring out members to endorse Cuomo, or does it mean that Teachout couldn't tap into liberals?
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 11:57:00 am
Hearing turnout is very low so far in Queens.

I assume that's bad for Teachout/Wu, no?

No, most of the Queens prime voters are going to be older, ethnic white (Jewish, Italian, etc). There are some competitive races in Asian communities that might favor Wu, but I don't think Queens was ever the victory path of Teachout/Wu--Manhattan and Brooklyn are.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 07:12:03 am
Media swarm surrounded Teachout as she voted….I a shocked.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 07:38:07 pm
FYI, huge (from my friends there not as supporters but spectators) rally in Manhattan for Teachout going on right now.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 07:09:20 am
What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 07, 2014, 02:46:45 pm
If Cuomo doesn't do well…let's say he gets only 60% of vote or so to Teachout's 35%…there will be a very strong examination as to how Cuomo did in areas with competitive state legislative primaries.

For example, if Cuomo got about 60% of the vote in these districts as well, there will be an examination as to whether or not these areas has high influence on the race overall due to the nature of the competitiveness of down-ballot races. PERHAPS, this will lead NYS Dems who want to preserve Cuomo-esque political establishments to ENCOURAGE more primaries outside of NYC, particularly in the wealthier, more conservative suburbs.

If there were Democratic primaries on Long Island or in Westchester, Cuomo could be reaching out to a potentially active base of Democrats there. "Kathleen Rice voters," as opposed to those who backed Schneiderman in 2010 for AG. I am going to gander that Nassau and Suffolk produce some of the lowest voter turnouts across the state…there are no major primaries on Long Island (except for some judge races and one Assembly race that isn't really a race).
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 07, 2014, 09:43:15 am
I don't think anyone, in 2016, will really pounce on Hillary for not supporting somewhat of a fringe candidate who happened to get lucky and capitalized (at least in terms of endorsements, we'll see what happens on Tuesday) on a lot of lingering anti-Cuomo anger---and renewed anger about Kathy Hochul.

Will Hillary realistically move a lot of votes for Cuomo? Probably not but she will bring out some.

The real 9/9 path to votes is who is brought out by their respective union, elected official, newspaper, or an a pro-Cuomo or anti-Cuomo disposition.

In other words, the tepid voter will not show up to vote on 9/9 UNLESS: the union encouraged them to come out, an elected official does, a newspaper makes a compelling point, AND, and perhaps most likely, you are either anti-Cuomo or pro-Cuomo.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 06, 2014, 09:56:27 am
Anyone want to make a prediction about an off-chance result?

For example, if you really think Teachout might win or Malcolm Smith might remain in the State Senate, etc.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 05, 2014, 03:29:26 pm
A few things here…

1. Israel IS a New York issue because the State of New York purchases bonds in Israel AND has contracts with Israeli security, tech, etc. companies, and "talk" is not cheap when it comes to this issue.

2. IF Teachout and Cuomo were somehow to get the same number of votes, Teachout would have to win progressives in the city and anti-Cuomo people in Upstate New York. Cuomo will do well in Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester. These are moderate Democratic counties with large Italian populations where there is little WFP and agri-progressive grassroots organizing. Run of the mill, standard, unimpressed with Teachout's "change" and "progress" agenda.

3. The concern about Cuomo is that if Hochul loses (or if Cuomo gets under 70% of the vote), the third parties, minor but somewhat powerful, may no longer be interested in dealing with Cuomo and settling for tepid achievements.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 04, 2014, 07:01:12 pm
Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

Barring Teachout and Wu both gettung under 15%, I think they will over-preform. I mean, they both started out unknown.


Any challenger (even a perennial non-candidate) will get some % of the vote, probably 10% at very least maybe even 15%. After all, Gail Goode, got 24% of the vote against Gillibrand in the 2010 Senate primary election and no one, literally, no one knew who Goode was. She got no endorsements, etc.

If Teachout gets under 30% of the vote, I think that would be a disappointment.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 04, 2014, 05:53:54 pm
Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 08:04:30 pm
I voted for Teachout and wrote in Christine Quinn for LG.

Weren't you voting for Cuomo? I'm glad you changed your mind, now you can keep your username Wink

I changed my mind (solidly) when Mark Green endorsed Teachout. I know that sounds stupid, but, I've always admired Mark Green and felt comfortable in his vision of NY. The Times non-endorsement of Cuomo also helped. This is a protest vote, obviously. I wanted Quinn for LG before Hochul was announced.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 06:05:53 pm
I voted for Teachout and wrote in Christine Quinn for LG.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 06:05:25 pm
I also wonder what a Teachout/Hochul voter is like if such a thing even exists (it'd be female I suppose).

Low information conservative (pro-gun/anti-gay) Democrats?

Not necessarily. Anti-Cuomo voters in Western NY who don't like Cuomo (either he's too conservative or too liberal) but like Hochul because of her Buffalo roots.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 02:20:23 pm
http://observer.com/2014/09/wu-for-no-2/

The New York Observer just backed Wu for LG.
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