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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 11:57:00 am
Hearing turnout is very low so far in Queens.

I assume that's bad for Teachout/Wu, no?

No, most of the Queens prime voters are going to be older, ethnic white (Jewish, Italian, etc). There are some competitive races in Asian communities that might favor Wu, but I don't think Queens was ever the victory path of Teachout/Wu--Manhattan and Brooklyn are.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 07:12:03 am
Media swarm surrounded Teachout as she voted….I a shocked.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 07:38:07 pm
FYI, huge (from my friends there not as supporters but spectators) rally in Manhattan for Teachout going on right now.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 07:09:20 am
What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 07, 2014, 02:46:45 pm
If Cuomo doesn't do well…let's say he gets only 60% of vote or so to Teachout's 35%…there will be a very strong examination as to how Cuomo did in areas with competitive state legislative primaries.

For example, if Cuomo got about 60% of the vote in these districts as well, there will be an examination as to whether or not these areas has high influence on the race overall due to the nature of the competitiveness of down-ballot races. PERHAPS, this will lead NYS Dems who want to preserve Cuomo-esque political establishments to ENCOURAGE more primaries outside of NYC, particularly in the wealthier, more conservative suburbs.

If there were Democratic primaries on Long Island or in Westchester, Cuomo could be reaching out to a potentially active base of Democrats there. "Kathleen Rice voters," as opposed to those who backed Schneiderman in 2010 for AG. I am going to gander that Nassau and Suffolk produce some of the lowest voter turnouts across the state…there are no major primaries on Long Island (except for some judge races and one Assembly race that isn't really a race).
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 07, 2014, 09:43:15 am
I don't think anyone, in 2016, will really pounce on Hillary for not supporting somewhat of a fringe candidate who happened to get lucky and capitalized (at least in terms of endorsements, we'll see what happens on Tuesday) on a lot of lingering anti-Cuomo anger---and renewed anger about Kathy Hochul.

Will Hillary realistically move a lot of votes for Cuomo? Probably not but she will bring out some.

The real 9/9 path to votes is who is brought out by their respective union, elected official, newspaper, or an a pro-Cuomo or anti-Cuomo disposition.

In other words, the tepid voter will not show up to vote on 9/9 UNLESS: the union encouraged them to come out, an elected official does, a newspaper makes a compelling point, AND, and perhaps most likely, you are either anti-Cuomo or pro-Cuomo.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 06, 2014, 09:56:27 am
Anyone want to make a prediction about an off-chance result?

For example, if you really think Teachout might win or Malcolm Smith might remain in the State Senate, etc.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 05, 2014, 03:29:26 pm
A few things here…

1. Israel IS a New York issue because the State of New York purchases bonds in Israel AND has contracts with Israeli security, tech, etc. companies, and "talk" is not cheap when it comes to this issue.

2. IF Teachout and Cuomo were somehow to get the same number of votes, Teachout would have to win progressives in the city and anti-Cuomo people in Upstate New York. Cuomo will do well in Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester. These are moderate Democratic counties with large Italian populations where there is little WFP and agri-progressive grassroots organizing. Run of the mill, standard, unimpressed with Teachout's "change" and "progress" agenda.

3. The concern about Cuomo is that if Hochul loses (or if Cuomo gets under 70% of the vote), the third parties, minor but somewhat powerful, may no longer be interested in dealing with Cuomo and settling for tepid achievements.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 04, 2014, 07:01:12 pm
Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

Barring Teachout and Wu both gettung under 15%, I think they will over-preform. I mean, they both started out unknown.


Any challenger (even a perennial non-candidate) will get some % of the vote, probably 10% at very least maybe even 15%. After all, Gail Goode, got 24% of the vote against Gillibrand in the 2010 Senate primary election and no one, literally, no one knew who Goode was. She got no endorsements, etc.

If Teachout gets under 30% of the vote, I think that would be a disappointment.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 04, 2014, 05:53:54 pm
Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 08:04:30 pm
I voted for Teachout and wrote in Christine Quinn for LG.

Weren't you voting for Cuomo? I'm glad you changed your mind, now you can keep your username Wink

I changed my mind (solidly) when Mark Green endorsed Teachout. I know that sounds stupid, but, I've always admired Mark Green and felt comfortable in his vision of NY. The Times non-endorsement of Cuomo also helped. This is a protest vote, obviously. I wanted Quinn for LG before Hochul was announced.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 06:05:53 pm
I voted for Teachout and wrote in Christine Quinn for LG.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 06:05:25 pm
I also wonder what a Teachout/Hochul voter is like if such a thing even exists (it'd be female I suppose).

Low information conservative (pro-gun/anti-gay) Democrats?

Not necessarily. Anti-Cuomo voters in Western NY who don't like Cuomo (either he's too conservative or too liberal) but like Hochul because of her Buffalo roots.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 02:20:23 pm
http://observer.com/2014/09/wu-for-no-2/

The New York Observer just backed Wu for LG.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 02:19:11 pm
In addition to the Ruffalo endorsement (which will probably only generate headlines, if few votes), a slew of local newspapers have endorsed Teachout including the Hudson Valley News, representing part of NYC's northern suburbs. Also, Newsday, a newspaper for populous Long Island has been giving Teachout - Wu multiple articles of coverage a day.

I think smaller papers are endorsing Teachout and Wu, and covering them, because Cuomo has been so uninterested in giving them the time of day.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 02, 2014, 11:53:04 am
Mark Green, 2001 Dem nominee for NYC Mayor and former NYC Public Advocate will be endorsing Teachout-Wu today, according to my friend who is somewhat "in the know."
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 01, 2014, 11:55:40 am
I think the big question here is how to NYC suburbs break down the vote. Nameliy: Nassau, Suffolk (Long Island), Westchester, but also suburban NYC including largely ethnic-white parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island. I don't expect Teachout to do well here, though, perhaps making matters worse for Cuomo in suburbia is that there are few (if any, that I can think of) state legislative races in the suburbs. This means that suburban New Yorkers, middle of the road Democrats, may be even less likely to turn out than usual.

Areas with major state legislative primaries:

Upper Manhattan: (a number of Assembly seats and the Adriano Espaillat State Senate seat). Largely black and Dominican and Puerto Rican.

Upper East Side: Open Assembly seat, large share are NYT readers, can be good for Wu, not sure about Teachout, since UES-ers are generally less liberal than rest of Manhattan.

Brooklyn: Primaries abound both in Brownstone Brooklyn (Teachout Heaven) and Caribbean-Brooklyn (heavy-union). 1199SEIU and TWU100 represent huge chunks of Brooklynites in the Caribbean communities. They've backed Cuomo, but a hot Assembly race in Brownstone Brooklyn may bring out Teachout voters.

Queens: Primaries abound in ethnic-Jewish, Asian, and mixed black/Caribbean communities here. Former City Comptroller John Liu, NYC's first Asian-American citywide officeholder is on the ballot and is backed by most unions, elected officials, and the party. This might boost Wu, big time.

Bronx: A number of primaries but the Jeff Klein v. Koppell race along with a few Assembly races will bring out a mix of upper middle class, but liberal, Jewish voters and black and Latino voters in the Assembly races.

So, assuming the competitive legislative districts in NYC have higher turnout for Gov/LG race, where does this lead Cuomo, Hochul, Teachout, and Wu? Short answer: no idea. Long answer: It depends--will people follow their unions? Are minority voters dissatisfied enough with Cuomo to vote for Teachout? Will Asian-Americans vote for Wu, the way they are expected to in the competitive State Senate races?

43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wind Rising: Predict Teachout's Total % of the Vote on: August 30, 2014, 04:28:36 pm
The primary is on the ninth? Who knows what might happen. How's Cuomo's GOTV effort shaping up?

Trust me, around Election Day, the labor unions and elected officials backing Cuomo will go into overdrive for Hochul and for the Governor. Will it be enough to avoid an embarrassing showing? That I don't know.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wind Rising: Predict Teachout's Total % of the Vote on: August 30, 2014, 01:26:09 pm
At this stage, I see something like this:

Cuomo    65%
Teachout 30%
Credico     5%

Hochul    56%
Wu         44%

Things can change but if election were held today...
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: August 27, 2014, 10:27:20 pm
This may actually hurt Teachout. People may see Wu as the more viable of the two and focus on making sure Kathy Hochul doesn't win the primary.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Teachout Piles on Endorsements on: August 27, 2014, 02:44:06 pm
The Nation has just endorsed Teachout and the Rochester City Newspaper just published an article outlining Teachout's rise in this race. http://www.rochestercitynewspaper.com/rochester/teachouts-emerging-voice/Content?oid=2426828
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Teachout Piles on Endorsements on: August 26, 2014, 06:50:11 pm
I suggest everyone read the NYT editorial, it is a near endorsement of Teachout, via the wording.

Additionally, of note, Josh Fox, director of Gasland (about tracking), endorsed Teachout as did a prominent Bangladeshi political group--representing thousands mainly in Brooklyn and Queens. Getting very interesting.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Teachout Piles on Endorsements on: August 25, 2014, 05:19:03 pm
BREAKING: Friend told me that Teachout just got Sierra Club endorsement, to be announced soon.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will New York's Democrats Humiliate Cuomo? on: August 24, 2014, 09:03:09 pm
UPDATE:

New York State NOW (National Organization of Women) just backed Teachout. She continues to rack in establishment support…

http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/219249/state-now-chapter-endorses-teachout/
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 24, 2014, 03:46:57 pm
Hearing rumblings that NYT may endorse her.

That would be an incredible boost to her campaign, and a shocking one.

Genuine question- when was the last time a newspaper endorsement dramatically changed the course of an election?

Well, not dramatically, but it's possible that the NY Times endorsement made the difference when Ned Lamont primaried Joe Lieberman.

Statewide, you are right, it won't affect the race. But there are certain communities that are known as the NYT Editorial areas, where the NYT nod almost always helps Council candidates etc clinch the nominations. The Upper West Side (especially), Upper East Side, Park Slope, Downtown Brooklyn, etc, have huge turnout #s even in uncompetitive, and the NYT endorsement could earn Teachout thousands of votes in these high turnout communities. You have to keep in mind that though Cuomo has a huge war-chest, his support among prime Democrats is tepid, and many don't even realize there is a primary.
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