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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Change Presidency: 2004 and Beyond on: January 04, 2017, 07:00:17 pm
Feingold Administration Announces Cabinet
November - December 2004


STATE: U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) has been nominated for Secretary of State.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are upset with the incoming administration because Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) is expected to nominate a Republican to the seat. Sources close to Gov. Pataki suggest that he is considering himself, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Peter King, and his Lt. Gov. Mary Donohoe.

DEFENSE: U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has accepted the nomination for Secretary of Defense.

In a fascinating move, Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), who is bound by law to nominate a Senate replacement of the same party as the outgoing senator, will name Cindy McCain, wife of Sec-designate John McCain, to fill his Senate seat. Cindy McCain has pledged not to run for another term and is considering caucusing as an independent or with Democrats. She is also considering a party change, and resigning, so that Gov. Napolitano may nominate a Demorat.

ATTORNEY GENERAL: U.S. Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick of Massachusetts has been nominated to be the next U.S. Attorney General.

HOMELAND SECURITY: In a strategic move, Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) will be Homeland Security secretary.

Behind the scenes, Feingold aides, especially incoming Chief of Staff Donna Brazile, have been working to push liberal Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) to run for the seat, replacing the somewhat hawkish and occasionally conservative Lieberman with a more mainstream liberal Democrat.

TREASURY: Former OMB Director Alice Rivlin has been nominated in a move that has upset some on the left who pushed for a more activist pick.

INTERIOR: Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar (D-CO) has been named Interior Secretary, foregoing a possible future run for governor or U.S. Senate, for now.

AGRICULTURE: North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson (D-ND) has been named to this post, but reports suggest Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) was initially offered the position but turned it down, hoping for consideration for a higher up office.

COMMERCE: U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) will serve in this position, allowing Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME) to choose a successor. So far, this likely nets the Democrats an additional 2 Democratic seats, with Sen-designate Cindy McCain serving as an all-but-named Democrat.

LABOR: As expected, U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO) has gotten the job.

HEALTH/HUMAN SERVICES: Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT) has been nominated, but Republicans are vowing to block his confirmation, as Gov. Dean is promising a "robust change" to American health care.

HOUSING/URBAN DEVELOPMENT: National Urban League CEO and former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial has been nominated to this post.

TRANSPORTATION:  Gov. Gary Locke (D-WA) has been named to this post.

EDUCATION: Inez Tenenbaum, the former South Carolina Superintendent for Education and failed Senate candidate in 2004.

ENERGY: Former Vice President Al Gore will serve as Education Secretary under assurances to the Feingold-Shaheen team that he will not "go rogue."

VETERANS AFFAIRS: Former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) will serve.

2004 Iowa Caucuses flashback

It took three hours to call the caucuses that night. Sen. Russ Feingold, who just two weeks before Caucus night was in a distant third place to Sens. Kerry and Edwards came from on top to win the race with 33% of the vote, to John Kerry who got 31% and Howard Dean who got 12%.

NEXT: Confirmations and flashback to the VP search!
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cuomo vetoes bill requiring state to pay legal costs of the poor on: January 03, 2017, 07:20:44 am
Hating the poor will score him some points with GOP voters
This measure had nothing to do with hating the poor. Local governments already fund this. This measure would have helped landowners and homeowners.

That's not quite accurate. There is a serious gap in legal services provided to low income/no income individuals in NY. This bill had bipartisan support and was considered, with consensus, the smart thing to do.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Change Presidency: 2004 and Beyond on: January 02, 2017, 09:58:47 pm
Feingold Administration Building Blocks
November 2004


White House Chief of Staff: Russ Feingold's campaign manager and transition coordinator Donna Brazile has been named chief of staff.

Senior Advisor to the President: Former Bill Clinton White House Chief of Staff and Senior Counsel John Podesta

White House Press Secretary: Pres.-elect Feingold's Senate Press Secretary Trevor Miller

Chief Strategist and War Transition Advisor to the President: In a signal that withdrawing from Iraq was a top priority for his administration, Pres.-elect Feingold created a new senior White House staff position, and named General Wesley Clark to the post.

Nomination rumors

Pres.-elect Feingold is on the verge of announcing his cabinet picks in subject matter batches. He is expected to name national security and military posts first in an effort to jumpstart a quick execution of withdrawal from Iraq.

Here is a list of potential cabinet picks strategically leaked to the press by the Feingold-Shaheen transition team.

STATE: The Feingold-Shaheen team has been mum on this position. Rumors are swirling that U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) or U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), a former Feingold rival, are the frontrunners for this position. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala is also being considered for the role, as is former Brookings Institute President Michael Armacost

TREASURY: Former Office of Management and Budget chief Alice Rivlin is widely expected to get the job, but, intriguingly, U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and U.S. Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) have emerged as possible dark horse candidates.

ATTORNEY GENERAL: This is another position in which the Feingold-Shaheen team has been very mum about. U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Sonia Sotomayor (NY-2nd Circuit) is thought be considered as is New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) and former U.S. Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick.

DEFENSE: The frontrunner is thought to be U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) who crossed the aisle to endorse Feingold just two weeks before Election Day. Other potential candidates are former White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta, former Veterans Affairs Secretary Togo West among others.

INTERIOR: U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) is a possible pick, as is Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) and Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar. Salazar and Inslee are thought to be frontrunners.

AGRICULTURE: Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) is also thought to be a top contender for the Agriculture post. Very little information on other candidates has been announced.

COMMERCE: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) is also considered a frontrunner for this position as is Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D-TX).

LABOR: U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO) has all but been offered this position and is widely expected to get the job.

HEALTH/HUMAN SERVICES: Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT) and former HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros are thought to be the top picks.

HOUSING/URBAN DEVELOPMENT: A number of choices are being considered by the Feingold-Shaheen team including former NYC Public Advocate Mark Green (D-NY), former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial (D-LA), U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH), and Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) who is rumored to be livid that he has not been offered a more prominent cabinet post.

TRANSPORTATION: Gov. Gary Locke (D-WA) is being considered for this role, as is former U.S. Sen. Al D'Amato (R-NY) and Washington, D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams (D-DC).

ENERGY: Gov. Gary Locke (D-WA) and former Vice President Al Gore are considered top choices.

EDUCATION: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) is lobbying hard for this position. First Lady Laura Bush is thought to be a dark horse candidate, as is NYC Schools Chancellor Joel Klein.

VETERANS AFFAIRS: U.S. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA)

HOMELAND SECURITY: U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Lt. Gen. Claudia Kennedy are being vetted.

NEXT: Roll out of national security team and a flashback to Iowa Caucuses 2004
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Change Presidency: 2004 and Beyond on: January 02, 2017, 12:58:43 pm
Curious what thoughts are on this matchup

I like it! What's the POD?

POD?
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Change Presidency: 2004 and Beyond on: January 01, 2017, 09:21:51 pm
Curious what thoughts are on this matchup
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / The Feingold Era: 2004 and Beyond on: January 01, 2017, 05:39:27 pm
The Change Presidency: 2004 and Beyond



Russ Feingold/Jeanne Shaheen                            
322 electoral votes

49.7%   60,634,000

George W. Bush*/Dick Cheney*
216 electoral votes
43.4%  52,948,000

Lincoln Chafee/Steve Forbes
0 electoral votes
6.0%    7,320,000

Presidential Election Night Recap

In a stunning election night, U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) were elected president and vice president respectively. Feingold, who was elected the first Jewish president, and Shaheen, elected the first woman vice president, pulled off a stunning upset after polls showed Bush/Cheney support tanking in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and New Mexico.

Final polls in the weeks leading up to election day showed the Feingold/Shaheen ticket with a consistent popular vote lead over Bush/Cheney and Chafee/Forbes. But a two-week blitz in key swing states pushed the Democrats over the top.

U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I-RI) and business executive Steve Forbes (R-NY) took a significant slice of the moderate Republican vote, as well as Democrats earning above $100,000 a year. Interestingly, the Chafee/Forbes ticket's best showing was in Vermont, not in Rhode Island where the results were:
65% Feingold, 18% Bush, 17% Chafee.

On election day, President Bush's approval rating was 41%, while 54% disapproved.

Senate Recap

Democrats emerged from election night with a 52-48 deficit in the Senate.

Key Democratic wins (outside of IRL) included:

ALASKA
Tony Knowles (D)        48.9%
Lisa Murkowski* (R)    48.0%

FLORIDA
Betty Castor (D)          49.6%
Mel Martinez (R)          48.6%

KENTUCKY
Daniel Mongiardo (D)   51.3%
Jim Bunning* (R)         48.7%

SOUTH DAKOTA
Tom Daschle* (D)         50.2%
John Thune (R)            49.7%

NEXT: The Feingold-Shaheen Transition begins. I will also recap the 2004 Democratic VP vetting process.

32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Elizabeth Warren in the Democratic Nomination on: December 31, 2016, 08:49:54 am
I think it all depends on the mood of the electorate.

In 2004, albeit I was still a pre-teen, I figured the Democratic base and electorate was going to select a let's tear s@!t done type of candidate. I saw Howard Dean's stock rise and I saw the 2000 VP candidate Lieberman without a chance in hell of winning. But then it seems like the party rallied around the guy perceived as the "grownup in the room" for better or worse--probably for worse--instead of the candidate I thought would be the best at the time.

So I'm curious what the actual mood will be like. I think Elizabeth Warren "checks off a lot of boxes" for people. She is fiercely progressive, fiercely smart, and probably can bridge the gap between activists and party stalwarts.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Honest John on: December 30, 2016, 06:20:43 pm
Excited for this
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Dubya Downfall: A Saga Of the 2004 Election on: December 30, 2016, 06:20:10 pm
Did I ever send you a potential Cabinet list? I think I did...

I think this is a dead TL, but IIRC you did

I mean I love it. I love alternate 2004 scenarios.

I'm bad at writing about government and coming up with that stuff

Respectfully disagree but I totally understand where you're coming from
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Democrat could win Staten Island over Trump in 2020? on: December 29, 2016, 03:33:55 pm
Obama won it in 2012, granted Sandy was an issue.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Dubya Downfall: A Saga Of the 2004 Election on: December 29, 2016, 02:01:25 pm
Did I ever send you a potential Cabinet list? I think I did...

I think this is a dead TL, but IIRC you did

I mean I love it. I love alternate 2004 scenarios.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Julian Castro takes shots at Trump: 2020 talking points? on: December 28, 2016, 12:57:00 pm
Castro just irks me. I know people don't like hearing the "identity politics" accusations but I don't see any substance in the guy beyond being Hispanic.

I have no doubt the Democratic primaries are going to be competitive in 2020, and honestly if Castro can't differentiate himself from "I'm a Latino, vote for me", then he's not going anywhere.

If he creates a palpable vision that resonates with people in 2020 that could be good enough. What were Trump's qualifications besides just that?
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Julian Castro takes shots at Trump: 2020 talking points? on: December 27, 2016, 07:18:23 pm
Are we just gonna say "identity politics" whenever a minority candidate is brought up?

Isn't it absurd. So many "progressives" who accused me of being a corporate war-monger and anti-POC crusader for supporting Hillary now tell me "no more identity politics" anytime a candidate of color is brought up as a 2020 presidential candidate.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Linda Sarsour 2020? on: December 25, 2016, 08:47:06 am
Lol. She's gonna run for City Council anyway
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden: Clinton never figured out why she was running on: December 23, 2016, 07:23:25 pm
I love Hillary. I volunteered for her in all three of her national races. But commercial after commercial framing Donald Trump as a bully, I think, became ineffective over time. I wanted people to love the Hillary I know and I suppose the campaign didn't do that.
41  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Work in politics? on: December 22, 2016, 06:29:30 pm
Would love to hear what people do who work in politics
42  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Favorite NYC borough? on: December 22, 2016, 06:27:38 pm
Queens baby!
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Al Franken 2020? on: December 22, 2016, 06:04:42 pm
I'm not anti-semetic but I don't want Al Franken as President of the United States, ever. Reasons:
1. I am a conservative, and Franken is way too liberal.
2. I want all Presidents of the United States to be some form of Christianity UNLESS a conservative Jew steps forward i.e. someone similar to Bibi Netanyahu.
3. Franken is too far left for my taste in views.


Ah understood, you might want to consider moving to the Vatican or Saudi Arabia where one religion is predominant and ubiquitous.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: December 20, 2016, 07:47:57 am
Regarding the committee assignments...looks like Kamala Harris didn't get assigned to either Armed Services or Foreign Affairs, but she did make it onto the Select Committee on Intelligence, so I guess she can argue that that at least gives her some "national security" cred:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-kamala-harris-nabs-national-security-1482178585-htmlstory.html


Michelle Bachmann was on that committee in the house when she ran for president. But she didn't get remotely close to the WH.........

As a member of the House though...I think that's a different type of profile than in the Senate
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Stronger candidate: Out of the closet gay man vs. a closeted gay man on: December 19, 2016, 05:45:39 pm
I feel like many of you aren't grappling with the question in the spirit that the OP was asking it.  Sure, if someone is actually in the closet, then that might create all sorts of personal problems for them, and possibly make them a worse politician.  And there's always the possibility that over the course of the campaign, someone would out them against their will, and that could have all sorts of other negative consequences.

But I didn't read that as the question being asked.  I was reading it as cases like Booker or Crist, where there's a good chance that the politician in question isn't gay at all, but either because they're perpetually single or because their mannerisms "aren't masculine enough", many assume that they're closeted gays.

So I would instead ask the question like this: If you had a candidate who is actually *not* gay, but who many assume to be a closeted gay man because of the reasons I just mentioned, do they pay a bigger political price than an actual out-of-the-closet gay man does, assuming that the two hypothetical candidates are otherwise equally politically talented?


Yes. Precisely. I did not word my post very well. What I really meant was does an openly gay candidate pay a bigger "political price" for being openly gay than an individual a la Cory Booker, Charlie Crist, Marco Rubio who are the target of persistent "gay rumors"
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New York City Council elections, 2017 thread on: December 18, 2016, 03:52:09 pm
Justin Brannan, a former Gentile aide is also running for that seat.

Interestingly, Francisco Moya just registered a city account. May possibly take on Julissa.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Dukakis beats Bush:An alternative America on: December 18, 2016, 03:50:33 pm
Very cool
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2020 Democratic Poll (WITHOUT BIDEN AND SANDERS) on: December 17, 2016, 03:34:50 pm
Can someone explain to me the Tulsi Gabbard phenomenon?
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Rebel Left on: December 17, 2016, 01:03:51 pm
DNC Chairmanship Election
February 26, 2017

447 DNC members voting
224 DNC member votes needed to win chairmanship

ROUND ONE

KEITH ELLISON                   160
TOM PEREZ                        131
ILYSE HOGUE                       95
JAMIE HARRISON                 25
RAYMOND BUCKLEY              25
SALLY BOYNTON BROWN      11

ROUND ONE 'ROUNDUP': U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) has emerged as the top vote getter dispute strong showings from former labor secretary Tom Perez and NARAL President Ilyse Hogue. Idaho Democratic Chair Sally Boynton Brown has been eliminated, and South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jamie Harrison has withdrawn.

ROUND TWO

KEITH ELLISON                   172
TOM PEREZ                        155
ILYSE HOGUE                       99
RAYMOND BUCKLEY              21

ROUND TWO 'ROUNDUP': Once again, Rep. Ellison has emerged as the top vote-getter, but former Sec. Perez has gained quite a bit of momentum as a result of recent dropouts. Meanwhile, Ilyse Hogue is trying to appear as a "better, third way" compared to both Ellison and Perez. New Hampshire Democratic Chair Raymond Buckley has been eliminated and has endorsed Tom Perez.

ROUND THREE
KEITH ELLISON                   177
TOM PEREZ                         170
ILYSE HOGUE                      100

ROUND THREE 'ROUNDUP': Third time is not yet the charm for Rep. Ellison, as his momentum seems to have stalled a bit. He has only earned 17 votes since the first round, and Sec. Perez has earned 39 votes since the first round. NARAL Pres. Ilyse Hogue has been eliminated and has not endorsed either Ellison or Perez, but has urged her supporters to "support the candidate who is not ashamed to embrace our life's work."

ROUND FOUR

TOM PEREZ                         249
KEITH ELLISON                   198

TOM PEREZ HAS BEEN ELECTED DNC CHAIR

Despite emerging as the clear frontrunner in late 2016, Rep. Keith Ellison's early momentum stalled. Perez received fewer overall endorsements, but a letter of support from Vice President Biden as well as several governors, members of Congress, unions, and activists launched Perez into a winning position to win.

50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / 2020 Democratic Poll (WITHOUT BIDEN AND SANDERS) on: December 16, 2016, 06:48:37 pm
DEMS ONLY - who gets your vote as of now?
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