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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 02, 2014, 11:53:04 am
Mark Green, 2001 Dem nominee for NYC Mayor and former NYC Public Advocate will be endorsing Teachout-Wu today, according to my friend who is somewhat "in the know."
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 01, 2014, 11:55:40 am
I think the big question here is how to NYC suburbs break down the vote. Nameliy: Nassau, Suffolk (Long Island), Westchester, but also suburban NYC including largely ethnic-white parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island. I don't expect Teachout to do well here, though, perhaps making matters worse for Cuomo in suburbia is that there are few (if any, that I can think of) state legislative races in the suburbs. This means that suburban New Yorkers, middle of the road Democrats, may be even less likely to turn out than usual.

Areas with major state legislative primaries:

Upper Manhattan: (a number of Assembly seats and the Adriano Espaillat State Senate seat). Largely black and Dominican and Puerto Rican.

Upper East Side: Open Assembly seat, large share are NYT readers, can be good for Wu, not sure about Teachout, since UES-ers are generally less liberal than rest of Manhattan.

Brooklyn: Primaries abound both in Brownstone Brooklyn (Teachout Heaven) and Caribbean-Brooklyn (heavy-union). 1199SEIU and TWU100 represent huge chunks of Brooklynites in the Caribbean communities. They've backed Cuomo, but a hot Assembly race in Brownstone Brooklyn may bring out Teachout voters.

Queens: Primaries abound in ethnic-Jewish, Asian, and mixed black/Caribbean communities here. Former City Comptroller John Liu, NYC's first Asian-American citywide officeholder is on the ballot and is backed by most unions, elected officials, and the party. This might boost Wu, big time.

Bronx: A number of primaries but the Jeff Klein v. Koppell race along with a few Assembly races will bring out a mix of upper middle class, but liberal, Jewish voters and black and Latino voters in the Assembly races.

So, assuming the competitive legislative districts in NYC have higher turnout for Gov/LG race, where does this lead Cuomo, Hochul, Teachout, and Wu? Short answer: no idea. Long answer: It depends--will people follow their unions? Are minority voters dissatisfied enough with Cuomo to vote for Teachout? Will Asian-Americans vote for Wu, the way they are expected to in the competitive State Senate races?

28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wind Rising: Predict Teachout's Total % of the Vote on: August 30, 2014, 04:28:36 pm
The primary is on the ninth? Who knows what might happen. How's Cuomo's GOTV effort shaping up?

Trust me, around Election Day, the labor unions and elected officials backing Cuomo will go into overdrive for Hochul and for the Governor. Will it be enough to avoid an embarrassing showing? That I don't know.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wind Rising: Predict Teachout's Total % of the Vote on: August 30, 2014, 01:26:09 pm
At this stage, I see something like this:

Cuomo    65%
Teachout 30%
Credico     5%

Hochul    56%
Wu         44%

Things can change but if election were held today...
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: August 27, 2014, 10:27:20 pm
This may actually hurt Teachout. People may see Wu as the more viable of the two and focus on making sure Kathy Hochul doesn't win the primary.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Teachout Piles on Endorsements on: August 27, 2014, 02:44:06 pm
The Nation has just endorsed Teachout and the Rochester City Newspaper just published an article outlining Teachout's rise in this race. http://www.rochestercitynewspaper.com/rochester/teachouts-emerging-voice/Content?oid=2426828
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Teachout Piles on Endorsements on: August 26, 2014, 06:50:11 pm
I suggest everyone read the NYT editorial, it is a near endorsement of Teachout, via the wording.

Additionally, of note, Josh Fox, director of Gasland (about tracking), endorsed Teachout as did a prominent Bangladeshi political group--representing thousands mainly in Brooklyn and Queens. Getting very interesting.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Teachout Piles on Endorsements on: August 25, 2014, 05:19:03 pm
BREAKING: Friend told me that Teachout just got Sierra Club endorsement, to be announced soon.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will New York's Democrats Humiliate Cuomo? on: August 24, 2014, 09:03:09 pm
UPDATE:

New York State NOW (National Organization of Women) just backed Teachout. She continues to rack in establishment support…

http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/219249/state-now-chapter-endorses-teachout/
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 24, 2014, 03:46:57 pm
Hearing rumblings that NYT may endorse her.

That would be an incredible boost to her campaign, and a shocking one.

Genuine question- when was the last time a newspaper endorsement dramatically changed the course of an election?

Well, not dramatically, but it's possible that the NY Times endorsement made the difference when Ned Lamont primaried Joe Lieberman.

Statewide, you are right, it won't affect the race. But there are certain communities that are known as the NYT Editorial areas, where the NYT nod almost always helps Council candidates etc clinch the nominations. The Upper West Side (especially), Upper East Side, Park Slope, Downtown Brooklyn, etc, have huge turnout #s even in uncompetitive, and the NYT endorsement could earn Teachout thousands of votes in these high turnout communities. You have to keep in mind that though Cuomo has a huge war-chest, his support among prime Democrats is tepid, and many don't even realize there is a primary.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 23, 2014, 04:53:58 pm
Hearing rumblings that NYT may endorse her.

That would be an incredible boost to her campaign, and a shocking one.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / D.C. Police Union Backs Independent Candidate for Mayor on: August 20, 2014, 04:27:42 pm
Washington, D.C.'s metropolitan police union backed Republican-turned-independent David Catania for Mayor. Though most of D.C. police officers do NOT live in the District, this surely does not bode well for Democrat Muriel Bowser. Any thoughts?

OR, with the recent incidents in our country, do you think a police union endorsement could hurt Catania in a number of constituencies in D.C.?
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY-04: Bruce Blakeman v. Kathleen Rice on: August 16, 2014, 03:28:18 pm
In 2010, the Republican got 46% of the vote. Now it's an open seat.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How do you pronounce Mary Fallin? on: August 16, 2014, 10:15:37 am
Short a as in cat, which doesn't seem to be on there.

Same must be a NY thing
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 15, 2014, 10:32:25 pm
If she couldn't get the Working Families Party endorsement, why would she win the less-liberal Democratic primary?

Because very few people are actually registered WFP. Most of the WFP Committee Members are aligned with WFP due to association with a certain interest group, usually a union. There was pressure from individual unions to back Cuomo. And NY's progressive base still lies in the Democratic Party…WFP is instrumental in Democratic primaries through endorsements and field organizing, but not necessarily in determining the pulse of the Democratic wing of the party.

And I don't love Cuomo but I do not feel that Zephyr Teachout has earned the governorship at all. There are many talented individuals in New York who could have given Cuomo a serious, sincere, and substantive challenge.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 15, 2014, 11:02:37 am
So is this a serious campaign now?

Only in the eyes of some liberals on this forum.

And only the second largest public employee union in the state.

http://www.thenation.com/article/181289/how-zephyr-teachout-became-contender#

I am voting for Cuomo but I really think Zephyr could alter the landscape, especially if she wins counties.

Here's the thing….
Counties upstate... with conservative Democrats who don't pay much attention to "downstate" politics may vote against Cuomo in the primary because they don't support Cuomo's gun policies etc. See Gillibrand and Gail Goode, a no-name challenger who wound up doing better upstate than downstate despite her running to the left of Gillibrand.

Counties downstate… NYC, Long Island, Hudson Suburbs (Westchester, Rockland etc) will anchor Cuomo in his re-election, but, many of these Working Families Party-esque voters will support Teachout, and now she has inroads with Diane Ravitch, PCCC, and the Public Employees Federation.


The danger, as I said before, also lies with Hochul. She is meeting largely with elected officials (not much with voters), and Wu may earn support from communities that would be glad to see the first ever Asian-American statewide official in NY.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 14, 2014, 06:04:55 pm
I'm pretty sure Mark Green is basically a perennial loser, so an unknown force like Teachout is doing well for her name recognition.

Lots of Democratic has-beens or lower-profile electeds who do not like Cuomo.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 14, 2014, 04:44:20 pm
But is she on the ballot?

Yes. As of a day ago. She has been certified to be on the ballot, and my absentee ballot, according to elections officials in my local BOE, will have her name on it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/nyregion/cuomo-primary-opponent-can-run-judge-rules.html?_r=0
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: BREAKING: Zephyr Teachout Endorsed by Massive Labor Group on: August 14, 2014, 04:43:34 pm
Wonderful news!

Not really. I think many progressive New Yorkers are actually annoyed by Teachout's campaign AND I'm sure some more well-known liberals such as Mark Green feel that they could have amassed even greater establishment support.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Cuomo v. Teachout on: August 14, 2014, 04:40:04 pm
http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2014/08/pef-endorses-teachout/

The state’s second-largest public workers union on Thursday endorsed Zephyr Teachout’s insurgent Democratic primary campaign for governor over incumbent Andrew Cuomo.

As I'm sure many of you know, NY is the most unionized state by % in the country. This is a big deal.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 D.C. Mayoral Election on: August 07, 2014, 06:46:38 pm
Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

Interesting. Kenyan McDuffie's endorsement of White, I thought, would ultimately hurt Bonds, siphoning away some reliable Democrats in Ward 5 who might not have considered Silverman anyway.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New York Governor- 2014- Astornio vs Cuomo on: August 07, 2014, 06:43:15 pm
The big race is the race for LG. Downstaters don't know anything about Hochul, and Wu could potentially win that race based on demographics and other factors.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HI: Hanabusa going for Senate on: August 07, 2014, 03:37:39 pm
Curious…

Is Hanabusa's relatively high chance (at least for a challenger to an incumbent) of winning the seat more related to legacy, ethnicity, or ties to Abercrombie?

I know very little about Hawaiian politics, but I do know that Hawaii has a very large native Hawaiian and Asian population. Is Hanabusa's candidacy buoyed by these demographics? I also wonder if Schatz's ties with Abercrombie could haunt him on Election Day.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: COMEBACK OF THE CENTURY: Former Governor Jim McGreevey (D-NJ) on: August 07, 2014, 03:22:21 pm
…sorry for the delay, life slowed me down.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

The Democrats

NY DAILY NEWS: DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES FOR SENATE POUNCE ON CHRISTIE; NJ REPUBLICANS

The 2014 Special Election for the U.S. Senate has been engulfed in the Fort Lee Bridge Closure scandal. Democrat have used the scandal to cloud out the controversy surrounding former Senator Menendez's indictment and resignation. Most buoyed by the scandal is Hoboken Mayor Dawn Zimmer, whose city was targeted politically by the hands of Christie and aides.


Recent polls show Zimmer's name recognition reaching that of former Gov. McGreevey's.

Meanwhile, a number of women in Congress have announced their support for Zimmer's campaign, in light of her recent surge in the race. They include: U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) who rallied with Zimmer and locally elected officials and former U.S. Representative Jane Harman (D-CA).

Former Gov. Jim McGreevey, for his part, has picked up impressive labor support with the backing of all 20 of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters chapters in New Jersey, and CWA Communications Workers of New Jersey. McGreevey also received the endorsement of all five members of the Congressional Black Caucus' Leadership Board.

The campaigns of Milly Silva, Steve Rothman, Danny O'Brien have floundered, with Silva and Rothman in the high single-digits, and O'Brien in low single-digits.

NBC-Marist Poll February 14-17, 2014
McGreevey:   33%
Zimmer:        24%
Silva:             8%
Rothman:      8%
O'Brien:         3%

But just three months before the June 3 primary election, 24% of New Jersey Democrats remain undecided. New Jersey political experts predict that the field is frozen in place due to the 'Bridgegate Scandal.'

The Republicans

SMITH AND ALLIES CALL ON FERZAN TO END CAMPAIGN

U.S. Representative Chris Smith and his political allies have called on Senator Marc Ferzan to serve out his term and end his campaign.

Smith: "Mr. Ferzan's campaign is a distraction and this scandal is going to continue to bog down the people of New Jersey."

Meanwhile, rumors swirl that Gov. Christie's office is actively recruiting State Senator Joe Kyrillos or former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman to run should Ferzan step down. NRSC officials have been pushing Ferzan to end his campaign. Smith, a staunch conservative, is not considered electable, even during a Midterm election.

NBC-Marist Poll February 14-17, 2014
Smith:    32%
Ferzan:   24%

Ferzan's campaign explains that his dip in the polls is a result of "Chris Smith's smear tactics and attempts to derail the tremendous efforts of Gov. Christie and the New Jersey Republican Party."

A poll, supposedly sponsored by the NRSC, shows Whitman clobbering Smith and Ferzan in a poll, and Kyrillos beating both by single digits.

Stay tuned…!
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 D.C. Mayoral Election on: August 06, 2014, 09:46:09 pm
I can see Catania getting at most 40 percent.

I agree, labor, Democratic-alligned groups, etc. will pull out the strings for Bowser. I'm sure she'll get some sort of Clinton, Obama, Biden, etc. robo call and mailer..
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