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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / For the GOP a simplified path to the White House in 2024?
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on: December 21, 2012, 09:28:46 am
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For Romney to have won in 2012 he needed to have won VA, OH and FL, plus one other state (such as CO, IA, NH). According to Sean Trende, after the 2020 census, and the projected reapportionment in 2020, that path simplifies to just FL, OH, VA. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/12/21/what_2012_population_estimates_could_mean_in_2020_116498.htmlOf course given demographic changes even that "simplified" path will not be easy.....
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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 2012: Year of the Illegal Alien?
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on: November 18, 2012, 01:58:33 pm
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These folks left everything behind and many saved for years or even made dangerous journeys just to live in America.
These people will make fine Americans.
I guess it all depends on how you define a "fine American". Certainly they are not self-supporting since they rely heavily on welfare. Households with children with the highest welfare use rates are those headed by immigrants from the Dominican Republic (82 percent), Mexico and Guatemala (75 percent), and Ecuador (70 percent). http://www.cis.org/immigrant-welfare-use-2011
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Romney could have won the popular vote and lst the Presidency
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on: November 08, 2012, 08:26:43 pm
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Obama currently leads the popular vote by 2.4%, to win the popular vote Romney needed a shift of 3%. However, a 3% shift would have only swung FL, OH and VA to Romney but he still would have been 4 EV short of winning the Presidency. So it was indeed possible Romney could have won the popular vote and lost the Presidency.
To win the extra Electoral Votes Romney would have needed one more state. The next closest state was CO and that would have required a popular vote shift of 5% for Romney to win. So Romney could have won the popular vote by 2.5% and still lost the Presidency
There are of course two ways Romney could have won, either by convincing 2.5% of the voters to switch or encourage Sean Trende “missing” 8 million GOP voters to show up.
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mitt Romney will campaign in Wisconsin for the first time in 78 days on monday.
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on: October 29, 2012, 08:44:52 am
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In 2008 the Obama won the endorsement of 3 of the 6 newspspers in Iowa, including the major paper the Des Moines Register. This year all 6 newspapers in Iowa endorsed Romney. The first time they all endoresed the same candidate in over 70 years. This could move a few percent in Iowa and Western WI towards Romney. So throw in a few campaign events and maybe Romney wins WI. With Ohio seemingly still leaning to Obama, Romney's best chance to win may now run through WI: 
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How did Candy Crowley do as moderator?
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on: October 17, 2012, 09:01:50 pm
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Like Raditz she was a terrible debate moderator. Debates should be a chance for the American Public to hear each candidate make their case, moderators that interupt the candidates too much (28 times Romney, 9 times Obama) ill serves the American people, though I guess it serves her own and the Press' ego....
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: paul ryan lost the debate
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on: October 13, 2012, 07:26:34 am
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Looks like Biden's angry, aggressive, disrespectful buffoon act didn't play well with nonpartisans: More polling data the Romney Ryan ticket was the real winner in the VP Debate. Survey USA results: Tampa/St. Pete… Ryan wins debate 42-38 Change vote? yes: 73% to Romney 27% to Obama! In New York area, Biden wins debate 54-30 But vote switchers still went 54%-38% in favor of Romney… CA Biden wins debate 48% to 41% but vote switchers favor Romney 59% to 40% http://www.surveyusa.com/
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Nate makes big move towards Romney
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on: October 13, 2012, 07:22:36 am
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Looks like Biden was a big boost for the Romney ticket. Survey USA results: Tampa/St. Pete… Ryan wins debate 42-38 Change vote? yes: 73% to Romney 27% to Obama! In New York area, Biden wins debate 54-30 But vote switchers still went 54%-38% in favor of Romney… CA Biden wins debate 48% to 41% but vote switchers favor Romney 59% to 40% http://www.surveyusa.com/
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