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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Sandy Effect on: January 04, 2013, 10:03:08 pm
Yes, Sandy swung NJ and NY voters to Obama, since both states went against the national trend
2012 Obama winning margin vs 2008:
Nationally decreased 3.43%
NY increased 1.28%
NJ increased 2.15%
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / For the GOP a simplified path to the White House in 2024? on: December 21, 2012, 09:28:46 am
For Romney to have won in 2012 he needed to have won VA, OH and FL, plus one other state (such as CO, IA, NH).  According to Sean Trende, after the 2020 census, and the projected reapportionment in 2020, that path simplifies to just FL, OH, VA.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/12/21/what_2012_population_estimates_could_mean_in_2020_116498.html

Of course given demographic changes even that "simplified" path will not be easy.....
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 2012: Year of the Illegal Alien? on: November 18, 2012, 01:58:33 pm
These folks left everything behind and many saved for years or even made dangerous journeys just to live in America.

These people will make fine Americans.

I guess it all depends on how you define a "fine American".   Certainly they are not self-supporting since they rely heavily on welfare.
 
Households with children with the highest welfare use rates are those headed by immigrants from the Dominican Republic (82 percent), Mexico and Guatemala (75 percent), and Ecuador (70 percent).
http://www.cis.org/immigrant-welfare-use-2011
4  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Your biggest state surprises? on: November 09, 2012, 08:11:27 pm
Romney losing FL
OH being closer than VA
5  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The rehabilitation of Bush II? on: November 08, 2012, 08:39:12 pm
Well we see.  Perhaps Jeb Bush (the smart one) will run in 2016 against Hillary Clinton (the tough one).  And all the old themes will be back in vogue.
6  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Obama crack 3%? on: November 08, 2012, 08:35:07 pm
Google is up to date on the US totals but they are not updating the state totals,   Huff Post is updating states as well as the US total:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results/
7  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Romney could have won the popular vote and lst the Presidency on: November 08, 2012, 08:26:43 pm
Obama currently leads the popular vote by 2.4%, to win the popular vote Romney needed a shift of 3%.  However, a 3% shift would have only swung FL, OH and VA to Romney but he still would have been 4 EV short of winning the Presidency. So it was indeed possible Romney could have won the popular vote and lost the Presidency.

To win the extra Electoral Votes Romney would have needed one more state. The next closest state was CO and that would have required a popular vote shift of 5% for Romney to win.
So Romney could have won the popular vote by 2.5% and still lost the Presidency

There are of course two ways Romney could have won, either by convincing 2.5% of the voters to switch or encourage Sean Trende “missing” 8 million GOP voters to show up.
8  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would Obama have won under the Maine/Nebraska EC method? on: November 08, 2012, 08:23:29 pm
In 2004 the ME/NE method by Congressional district would have increased Bush's winning margin from 286 to 317 EVs.
In 2008 Obama margin would have decreased from 365 to 301.
9  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any Chance..... on: October 29, 2012, 08:46:25 am
No, Obama seems to detest Romney, can't see him offering Romney any position
10  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Mitt Romney will campaign in Wisconsin for the first time in 78 days on monday. on: October 29, 2012, 08:44:52 am
In 2008 the Obama won the endorsement of 3 of the 6 newspspers in Iowa, including the major paper the Des Moines Register.   This year all 6 newspapers in Iowa endorsed Romney.  The first time they all endoresed the same candidate in over  70 years.

This could move a few percent in Iowa and Western WI towards Romney. 
So throw in a few campaign events and maybe Romney wins WI.

With Ohio seemingly still leaning to Obama, Romney's best chance to win may now run through WI:
11  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Going into the final full week:Who wins? on: October 29, 2012, 08:35:16 am
Obama is headed to win in the only vote that counts Electoral College, but Romney will win the popular vote
12  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Election 2012 Leans... on: October 29, 2012, 08:33:29 am
Both.
Popular vote leans Romney.
Electoral vote leans Obama
13  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The chance of a Romney PV/Obama EV win... on: October 29, 2012, 08:32:01 am
I don't think its hype.  I expect Romney to win by about 1% nationally, and lose the Electoral College since Obama seems to still be leading in OH
14  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What't the most likely map on Election Night? on: October 29, 2012, 08:23:24 am
Unfortunately, this is the map I think will happen:


But this is the map I hope will happen:
15  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Newspaper endorsement thread on: October 28, 2012, 10:18:54 pm
Romney Sweeps Endorsements of Iowa’s Largest Newspapers

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/romney-sweeps-endorsements-of-iowas-largest-newspapers-read-their-blistering-critiques-of-the-president-here/

For the first time in over 70 years, all the Iowa papers have collectively endorsed the same candidate. Four years ago, candidate Obama received warm endorsements from three of the newspapers, and Romney is the first Republican to be endorsed by the Register in 40 years.
On Sunday The Des Moines Register, Cedar Rapids Gazette, Quad City Times the Sioux City Journal, The Fort Dodge Messenger and Omaha World Herald all endorsed the Republican candidate.

A pretty strong indictment of the failure of Obama to manage the economy.
I wonder if the collective endorsements could tip Iowa to Romney? And perhaps move western WI more towards Romney as well
16  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: My honest take on state of race less than two weeks out on: October 24, 2012, 09:25:43 pm
Based on polling and early voting looks like Romney will win IN, NC, FL and VA.
OH, NV, IA still holding for Obama
CO and NH probably going to Romney, but still might end up going for Obama
WI, PA, MI leaning towards Obama.
So as of today Obama has a small lead.
17  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Top 10 media markets bypass Virginia, Wisconsin and Ohio at the top on: October 18, 2012, 01:19:59 pm
Obama has lost NC, FL, and VA.
He is fighting to hold NV, CO, IA, OH, WI
18  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What are your election night plans? on: October 17, 2012, 09:05:37 pm
I already voted since I will be in Germany and will get up at 3:00 AM, to watching CNN and tracking results by computer
19  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How did Candy Crowley do as moderator? on: October 17, 2012, 09:01:50 pm
Like Raditz she was a terrible debate moderator. 
Debates should be a chance for the American Public to hear each candidate make their case, moderators that interupt the candidates too much (28 times Romney, 9 times Obama) ill serves the American people, though I guess it serves her own and the Press' ego....
20  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: At this point on: October 15, 2012, 04:32:15 pm
Unfortunately I think Obama's ground game will pull him through, but I also think Romney may end up winning the popular vote
21  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: paul ryan lost the debate on: October 15, 2012, 04:30:17 pm
Pew poll also shows Ryan won among independents, a majority believe Ryan won, 50-39%, even though overall among all voters 47-46%
http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/15/voters-divided-over-who-will-win-second-debate/
22  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Obama going to lose? on: October 13, 2012, 08:49:58 am
I think Obama will "lose" the popular vote but due to his ground game in Ohio, win in the electoral college...
23  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: My maps for where the race stands right now and where it will be on November 6th on: October 13, 2012, 07:34:18 am
Today I see a 257 to 257 tie:


But with the trend continuing to approve for Romney I see Nov 6:
Romney 297 Obama 247
24  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: paul ryan lost the debate on: October 13, 2012, 07:26:34 am
Looks like Biden's angry, aggressive, disrespectful buffoon act didn't play well with nonpartisans:

More polling data the Romney Ryan ticket was the real winner in the VP Debate.
Survey USA results:
 Tampa/St. Pete… Ryan wins debate 42-38
       Change vote? yes: 73% to Romney 27% to Obama!

In New York area, Biden wins debate 54-30
       But vote switchers still went 54%-38% in favor of Romney…

CA Biden wins debate  48% to 41%
but vote switchers favor Romney  59% to 40%
http://www.surveyusa.com/
25  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Nate makes big move towards Romney on: October 13, 2012, 07:22:36 am
Looks like Biden was a big boost for the Romney ticket.
Survey USA results:
 Tampa/St. Pete… Ryan wins debate 42-38

       Change vote? yes: 73% to Romney 27% to Obama!

In New York area, Biden wins debate 54-30

But vote switchers still went 54%-38% in favor of Romney…

CA Biden wins debate  48% to 41%
but vote switchers favor Romney  59% to 40%
http://www.surveyusa.com/
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