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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Popular vote total on: November 17, 2016, 12:20:26 pm
BTW Clinton continues to expand her popular vote lead.
As of today its more than 1% (1.01%) and over 1.3 million votes, she will set the record for losing with the largest popular vote "win". 
A truly historic accomplishment for the first woman President......
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Best examples of Clinton campaign malpractice on: November 17, 2016, 12:02:34 pm
Feel free to add other examples but this caught my eye:
Clinton’s campaign and outside groups supporting it aired more television ads in Omaha during the closing weeks than in Michigan and Wisconsin combined.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-campaign-neglect_us_582cacb0e4b058ce7aa8b861?mfnm5yh9t7bhjjor

Talk about wasting money!
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The first U.S. Presidential election you remember? on: November 15, 2016, 10:38:23 pm
1960, I was 8 and my dad took me to a JFK rally in New Haven.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2016 Popular Vote on: November 15, 2016, 10:33:13 pm
Trump has now surpassed Romney for the second most votes by a GOP candidate:
61,248,402  vs Bushes 2004 record vote of 62,039,572.

As CA and WA continue their agonizingly slow count, the 130,886,660 votes this year will soon surpass the record 2008 total of 131,473,705.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Johnson cost Hillary the election? on: November 15, 2016, 09:57:46 am
Exit polls indicated 1/2 of the Johnson and Stein voters would not have voted for anyone.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2016 Popular Vote on: November 14, 2016, 09:11:31 pm
Total votes counted now exceed total votes cast in 2012
2012     129,237,642
2016    129,915,497

Trump almost as many votes as Romney
Romney      60,934,407
Trump         60,913,178
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: SWING MAP 2012 TO 2016 (Congressional districts not included) on: November 14, 2016, 05:19:41 pm
Swing to Trump or Hillary by county:


83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Libertarian Blog - We should abolish early voting on: November 11, 2016, 11:24:15 pm
Move elections to the first weekend in Nov, allow voting all day Saturday and Sunday so everyone will have a time they can vote.  Then abolish early voting.  Everyone should decide on the same information at the same time.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you feel bad for Hillary Clinton? on: November 10, 2016, 04:25:01 pm
No.
When the head of the Gambino Crime family went to prison I shed no tears. 
When the head of the Clinton Crime family doesn't get to go to the White House I do not feel bad.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary cancels "big" plan for election night on: November 07, 2016, 05:58:08 pm
She probably found a way to divert the money for the fireworks to Bill as a "consultant"
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / My weird path for Trump on: November 06, 2016, 03:42:25 pm


There have been polls this weekend in MI and PA that show it tied.  Meanwhile the NY Times has a nice graphic showing that PA and MI are the states, that compared to 2012, have the most potential Trump voters among high school educated men.  Farther south polls continue to show a small lead for Clinton in FL, driven in part part by the demographic shifts from 2012.  So how does Trump win without FL?
He takes MI, PA, and ME-2, along with IA, OH, and NC.  On paper that still gives Clinton a 271 win, but if the two WA electors don't vote for Clinton (as they have threatened), then its Clinton 269 Trump 267, and the House selects the President, given that the GOP is the majority in over 30 states, Trump wins.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Last minute poll: Who Wins? on: November 06, 2016, 01:06:58 pm

Likely Clinton. She is not be the president we all truly want or need, but she's the one we get.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Trump win MI? on: November 06, 2016, 01:01:46 pm
He wins if:
Black turnout drops by 3 percentage points.
The UP, traditionally union democrats, flips to Trump.
And he still will need both a 10-20% increase in independents and then to win independents by 10%.

Since MI has not gone Republican since 1972, the Democratic ground game is much less active here than in other battle ground states, which may allow Trump to bring out more Trump voters without the Democrats bringing out more Democrats
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Ohio? on: November 06, 2016, 12:57:11 pm
Trump by 2
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which websites will you visit to follow results on election night? on: November 06, 2016, 12:51:34 pm
Before the polls close I'll be watching http://votecastr.us/  Which will be releasing exit poll data all day.
Then as poll close I'll add CNN and the NY Times, CNN always has good info on every Congressional race
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Many Obama states will Trump Carry? on: November 06, 2016, 12:48:47 pm
Iowa and Ohio most likely.  Reasonable chance he also gets Florida.
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Suppose Trump is elected and Christie is appointed AG on: November 06, 2016, 12:46:18 pm
If Christie is AG, we can be sure the Clinton Crime family will be indicted on a whole raft of charges, fun times!
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What TV station will you be watching for E-Night Results? on: November 06, 2016, 12:44:51 pm
I'll be watching CNN, they usually have the best data analysis of early votes relative to past elections so one can see how a state is going long before they call a state.

But, mostly I'll be following vote data on-line at the AP, CNN, and the NY Times

If by some weird cosmic event Trump is looking strong early on, I will watch MSNBC just to see how depressed/suicidal they get.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is this the most plausible Trump victory map? on: November 06, 2016, 12:40:32 pm
I don;t think Trump will win NH or NV so his best chance in through MI of all places:
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump claims voter fraud in Nevada on: November 06, 2016, 12:37:23 pm
Real vote rigging in NV. 
the guy who caused the Secret Service to take Trump off stage yesterday, committed voter fraud by voting for his dead grandma.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/breaking-trump-attacker-hillary-supporter-dead-grandma-voting-reno-address/
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can WA replace its two potential rogue electors? on: November 06, 2016, 12:34:17 pm
"Different states have different rules when it comes to their bound by law rules. Some automatically make the votes of unfaithful electors reflect the state votes, others replace the elector with an alternate, and others impose a fine. "

But none of these laws have ever been tested in court.  There is a very strong argument to be made that the Constitution gives the Electors the right to vote and no state can restrict that vote.

Certainly over the last century about a dozen faithless electors have voted their conscientious, and all of these votes have been accepted by Congress as official votes.  That is a pretty strong precedent that implies states can't remove an elector just because he doesn't vote for the state winner.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: AP: Washington Democratic elector says he will not vote for Clinton on: November 05, 2016, 07:00:46 pm
If Clinton goes below 270 due to a faithless elector, the House will choose Trump.
If Trump goes below 270 due to faithless electors, he will still be chosen by the House.
The House votes by states and a President needs 26 state votes to win, the GOP has a majority in 33 states (the Democrats only in 14).
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why has Trump stopped polling? on: November 05, 2016, 06:51:08 pm
Polling has its limits, according to Jim Messina, Obama campaign never did any polls, they just got feedback form their volunteers and compared the data to their state models, claims his election morning projection was exactly correct.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/opinion/campaign-stops/the-election-polls-that-matter.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: How close will Florida be on Nov 8th ? on: November 05, 2016, 06:46:58 pm
Given that early voting has a smaller Democratic majority than 2012, I think trump wins by less than 1%.
I'm amazed some people think Clinton will win by 1-5 points more than Obama.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is your electoral map (11/5 edition) on: November 05, 2016, 06:41:17 pm


Actually Clinton 277 Trump 260 Sanders 1
 (Washington State Democratic elector Robert Satiacum and Bernie Sanders supporter says he will not vote for Clinton “No, no, no on Hillary. Absolutely not. No way,”)
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