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76  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Unemployment increases to 8.3% in July on: August 03, 2012, 01:40:30 pm
Of course the U3 monthly number is an example of how the government defines unemployment not how unemployed people woudl define it.

U3 doesn't count people who ran out of unemployment benefits, stopped looking in the last 5 months, took early retirement into SS, or signed up for SS disability.  The "official" unemployment including discouraged workers, U6 15%.  

But even this number was "modified" back in 1994 to exclude many discouraged workers.  The true unemployment rate is near its peak of 23%.  More than 10 percentage points greater than its low point in 2007.

We have an extremely long way to go to recover from the recession.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the House? on: August 02, 2012, 07:52:42 pm
Depending on how bad Romney fails, the Dems could even face net loss from being boned in redistricting in several states. I think it'll be like D+3 or 4 myself but I do no see any scenario short of Obama winning in a decent landslide where they pick up a large amount of House seats.

If Democrats have a net loss in both the House and Senate, it will have been the first time in history that a President was reelected while his party lost seats in both Houses.  

Of course if Romney wins and the GOP gains seats in the Senate but loses seats in the House then it will just be another typical election.
78  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Make a Rasmussen Map and a PPP Map? on: July 30, 2012, 07:58:14 pm
I assume you mean dead even popular vote.  Like 2008 Obama does better in swing states than the nation at large so for Romney to win Romney will need to win the popular vote by more than 2%.

At a 50% to 50% election Romney wins IN, FL, NC, and NE CD1, but Obama wins 303 EV to 235 EV:
79  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Electoral vote vs. popular vote on: July 30, 2012, 07:40:52 pm
In 2008 McCain would have had to win the popular vote 2.5% to get to 270 EV.  So I expect this year Obama could win the electoral vote and lose the popular vote by up to 2%
80  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Tipping Point State on: July 30, 2012, 09:45:06 am
81  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama Landslide on: July 29, 2012, 02:04:58 pm

Wouldnt he also pick up North and South Dakota? He got 45 percent in both those states.

Corrected:  You're right a net 12% change for 2008.
Obama gain 6%, Romney lose 6% off McCain's totals would generate a real blowout in the Electoral college.
82  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Why Obama will likely lose on: July 29, 2012, 01:52:54 pm
It is really amazing how closely Obama's support this summer is tracking his support in the summer of 2008:


In 2008 Obama was mostly an unknown quantity people could paint their hopes upon and he led McCain all summer in the polls.  Now after 4 years America knows who Obama is and he is polling at almost exactly the same level as he did in 2008.  Thus Obama's current 46% may be close to his ceiling of support this year.

Romney who is mostly an unknown, is polling much better this summer than McCain did on 2008, although trailing Obama by about 1%, his 45% maybe his floor of support.

Romney has a excellent chance to convince voters he can handle the job at the GOP Convention, so it is likely that after the conventions Romney will move ahead in the polls just as McCain did in 2008.  However, this time Romney will stay in the lead since Obama can't benefit from an economic meltdown and would need a near impossible robust economic recovery by Nov. to overcome a post-convention Romney lead.
Romney 52%
Obama  47%
Other 1

A 5% win for Romney when applied to the current state level polling would yield:
Romney  337 EV
Obama    201 EV
83  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama Landslide on: July 29, 2012, 01:21:03 pm
The economy picks up, unemployment drops to 7.5%, gas drops to below $3.00 gallon, US and Israel successfully destroy Iran's Nuclear facilities and keep oil flowing from the Mid-east.
Obama expands his 2008 winning 54% to:
Obama 59%
Romney 39%
Other 2%

Shifting the 2008 margin a net 12% adds all but 7 states

Obama  500 EV
Romney 38 EV
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney Landslide on: July 29, 2012, 01:03:44 pm
With the economic slow down accelerating, rising unemployment, rising food prices, rising gas prices, and Iran detonating a nuclear device, Romney could pull out a 10 pt win:
Romney 54.5%
Obama  44.5%
Others   1%
Obama is currently ahead nationally by 1.5% (RealClear Average), to lose by 10 that would be a shift towards Romney by 11.5%.  Applying a 11.5% shift to the current state poll averages at RealClear:
Romney 386 EV
Obama  152 EV

85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which attack is more dishonest? on: July 28, 2012, 07:28:04 pm
Neither, both are accurate
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. Tierney (D-MA) "knew everything" of family's illegal off shore betting site on: July 26, 2012, 02:07:19 pm
Despite Tierney's ethical, personal and political failings, this seat is listed as number 41 of the top 50 seats likely to change hands:

And Cook has it listed as Lean Democratic

Much as I'd like MA to have a Republican in the House and Senate, I would be surprised if Tisei pulled out a win.  After all this is MA!
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the House? on: July 26, 2012, 01:35:43 pm
With a narrow Obama Win the Democrats will probaly pick up a net less than 10 seats.
With a narrow Romney win the Democrats might even lose a net few seats
88  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Predict the Nov result and explain why on: July 25, 2012, 10:10:13 pm
I predict a Romney win over Obama by 4%.

The RealClear average of polls has Obama leading by 1.3%, but I think the current polls are vastly oversampling Democrats because:
1) Gallop finds Democratic enthusiasm down from 2008 by 22% points while Republican enthusiasm is up 16% points: A larger Republican advantage than in 2004
2) Rasmussen finds Democratic party self identification down 11% points from 2008:  a 3.4% advantage for Republicans over 2004

Combining the two trends I predict a substantial Romney win by 4% = to the Bush 2004 win of 2.5% plus another 1.5% for increased Republican self ID and enthusiasm.

89  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: As the population grows... on: July 25, 2012, 08:35:01 pm
We clearly need more Congresscritters since the 435 we have now have been doing such a great job.
Lets up the number to 999 (the House always has an odd number to avoid ties).

Does anyone know how an additional 564 seats would be apportioned?  Would the increase in Electoral Votes be an advantage for the Democratic or Republican states?
90  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Did Obama kill the National Popular Vote Compact? on: July 25, 2012, 08:28:53 pm
No new state has passed a National Popular Vote bill since CA did in Aug of 2011.
This movement is designed to guarantee that the popular vote winner wins the most Electoral Votes:
This started off to prevent a "wrong winner", like Bush in 2000 who won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote by 540,000 votes.  The support for the bill has come from 9 states that voted Democratic in each election since 1992.

However I am wondering if the Democrats have dropped this effort because with a close election in the offing, it is likely Obama could win the Electoral Vote but lose the popular vote.  Assuming a uniform 9% vote shift nationally, in 2008 Obama would have won in the electoral college even if McCain had won the popular vote by >2% (or 2,4000, 000 votes).

So could it be that to protect Obama's chances, no new state has passed the National Popular Vote bill since last summer?
91  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who do want to win/think will win? on: July 24, 2012, 08:39:47 pm

But I think Romney will win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Swing on: July 23, 2012, 08:55:10 pm
No, Obama will lose several states he won in 2008: IN, NC, FL and possibly OH, IA, VA, and CO.  But he will not win any of the states he lost.
93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Summary of Mitt Romney's big problem in the Electoral College on: July 23, 2012, 08:48:29 pm
Although Obama leads in the polls, the problem is the polls. 

As Jay Cost has shown, most polls are currently polling registered voters (which are usually 1-2% more favorable to Democrats than likely voters) and they are using models predicting an electorate of D+4 to D+7:

But historically elections average only D+3 (2004 was D+0 and 2000 was D+4).  In fact in the June total polling by Rasmussen found unweighted, respondents were a R+1.4%.   So most polls are likely favoring Obama by at least another 2%.  This means a likely shift of 3-4% to Romney when the votes are tallied, hence the election may well result in a Romney win.

However, I do agree that if Romney wins the popular vote by less than 2% there is a very good chance Obama wins in the Electoral College.  In 2008 Obama won the popular vote by 7%, but it would have taken a 2.5% popular vote win by McCain for him to have won in the Electoral College.
94  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Campaigns don't matter? on: July 12, 2012, 09:03:28 pm
Despite all our intensive poll watching and daily campaign dissections, angst about the GOP VP choice and eventually wondering who will win the debates, there is considerable data that campaigns donít really matter. Presidential results are driven by partisanship, economic factors, job approval, and incumbency.
Good ole Larry Sabato has revised his prediction model and now has Obama winning if the 2Q GDP is positive. With two of the three predictors used in his revised model now set, a 1% 2Q GDP growth would equal a 50.2 to 49.8% Obama win. To win Romney needs the 2Q GDP growth to be negative.
So no need to read the news until Nov., be happy don't worry.

95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / 56 percent believe Obama has negatively transformed the nation on: July 09, 2012, 08:26:41 pm
Two-thirds of likely voters say President Obama has kept his 2008 campaign promise to change America.  Unfortunately only 35 percent believe the country has changed for the better while 56 percent of likely voters believe Obamaís first term has transformed the nation in a negative way.

Regardless of Obama's approval rating, when 56% think he has made the country worse it makes his re-election problematic.

96  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: states Romney must win on: July 03, 2012, 09:46:36 pm
First he has to pick up Indiana and NE-02; these will be the first to fall, and if they're tossups, it's over for Mitt (it probably also means he's down in Missouri and/or Arizona). Then would come North Carolina and Florida, bringing him to 235 electoral votes. Now he has to win Ohio and Virginia, taking him to 266. The remaining 4 will come from one of Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire

As of today Romney has good leads in Missouri, Arizona, Indiana, NE-02, and NC.  He probably has a small lead in FL

Obama still has an edge in OH, VA, and IA, which is where the election will be decided.
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How will the Supreme Court's Health Care Reform ruling ... on: June 28, 2012, 09:56:31 am
So Obama care is realy just another big Democratic tax after all, I hope Romney will make that clear and run against it

This also makes it easy for the House to vote for repeal agian
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Romney cut jobs to make government more efficient? on: June 24, 2012, 07:56:37 pm
I certainly hope Romney cuts government jobs and makes the government more efficient, saving taxpayers money and making the government more productive.
99  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If the election was suddenly held tomorrow, what would the map be? on: June 13, 2012, 07:40:02 pm
Probably this:

Obama 270 Romney 268
100  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP/DailyKos weekly poll has Obama up 8 on: June 10, 2012, 06:19:13 pm
My rule of thumb for PPP polls: add 2 pts to the Republican and subtract 2 from the Democrat, so this would be Obama up 48-44. 
But even that seems a bit optimistic given Ras and Gallup have Romney up 1 today and RealClear has the average of polls Obama up only 1.3%
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