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76  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney on: October 06, 2012, 06:18:18 pm
Current polls from Ohio:
We Ask America OH ahead 47-46
Rasmussen OH behind 49-50
McLaughlin CO ahead 50-46

If (big if) Romney can sustain his debate momentum he has a chance at Ohio
77  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Massive movement towards Romney on: October 06, 2012, 05:32:43 pm
Well considering the country is about 45% Democrat no matter what and 45% Republican no matter what the elections play out in the 10% that are be the swing voters. Thus against a background of a "massive movement".  Before the debates Romney was trailing nationally about 4% and in the swing states by 3 to 7%.  Here are the polls from the last 2 days
 
Nationally Today
Rasmussen ahead 49-47
Claris ahead 47-46  
Ipsos behind 44-46  (but RV)

And moving ahead in swing states:
Today
Gravis CO ahead 49-46
Wenzel Strategies OH ahead 48-47
PPP WI  behind 49-47 (but Romney was actually ahead of Obama the last day of polling)
Yesterday
We Ask America VA ahead 48-45
We Ask America FL ahead 49-46
We Ask America OH ahead 47-46
Rasmussen VA ahead 49-48
Rasmussen OH behind 49-50
McLaughlin CO ahead 50-46
Gravis NV behind 48-49
78  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Rate President Obama's speech on: September 07, 2012, 12:55:35 am
Solid C some good cadences, but I got lost among all the straw men
79  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Are You Better Off Now Than You Were 4 Years Ago? on: September 04, 2012, 01:24:32 pm
No.
My wife lost her job, and after a year found one but at 50% less salary
My house has lost 20% of its value
Both my daughters are no longer employed
Our 2 cars are 4 years older

80  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How's your family voting? on: September 04, 2012, 01:18:37 pm
Me    McCain -> Romney
Wife  McCain -> Romney
Older daughter   Obama -> undecided
Younger Daughter   McCain -> Romney
2 sisters   McCain -> Romney
Other sister   Obama -> Obama
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: What is the procedure? on: September 03, 2012, 12:57:06 pm
The House of Representatives votes on the top 3 finishers in the Electoral college, but the Senate only on the top 2 finishers for VP.

To be elected President, the winner in the House must get 26 states to win (states with a tied vote like NJ which is 6D and 6R would be deadlocked and fail to cast a vote).

To be elected VP, the winner must get 51 votes in the Senate and the VP does not get to vote.
82  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bain under investigation for tax evasion on: September 02, 2012, 09:39:07 pm
A NY Democratic State Attorney investigation is, by definition politically motivated, as he is trying to make a name for himself for a future run at Governor.

I certainly expect the media to hype it up and Obama folks to run ads about it.
83  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Colorado 2004, Indiana 2008. Which state will move to tossup in last month? on: September 02, 2012, 09:35:05 pm
Karl Rove has said Oregon is the sleeper of 2012....
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Where is the race now? Maps? on: August 31, 2012, 10:12:18 pm
Tied or Romney +1

Obama 280 EV
Romney 258 EV
85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: One final General Election Poll before the Conventions on: August 26, 2012, 06:00:07 pm
Ryan seals the deal for me.
86  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The election begins in 2 weeks ... on: August 26, 2012, 05:57:49 pm
So many people will vote before the debates, and potentially before a possible Iran attack or other October events...

Call me old fashion but I think voting should be a national statement of opinion as of a single day or so (except for valid traditional absentee voting from people who cannot get to the polls on election day).

I would prefer a weekend vote with polls open 6 AM to 9 PM.
87  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How big will be Romney's RNC Bounce Be? on: August 25, 2012, 06:37:42 pm
Small maybe +2.
1) Most people have made up their minds giving both Obama and Romney about 45%, I doubt any Obama supports will change their minds.
2) The other undecided 10% are mostly low information., low interest voters.  Since the networks will broadcast none of the convention during prime time, its doubtful many of the undecided will even see the convention coverage.
3) The media will find some distraction about the GOP to discuss so they fail to carry much of the GOP/ Romney's positive messages the convention will present
88  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which campaign is dirtier? on: August 21, 2012, 08:51:15 pm
Obviously the Obama campaign is dirtier, the dirtiest in the history of U.S. Presidential elections.

95% of what they say is a lie and continues to be a lie.

They have lied about Romney's sterling record as Governor of Massachusetts where he practically saved the states economy, they have lied about Romney's brilliant business career, where he literally created thousands upon thousands of jobs thus injecting life into the American economy.

The Obama campaign has sent out their obedient minions with lies, lies, and more lies, Reid about Romney's taxes, a lie, and they have even stooped to attacking Ann Romney, a courageous woman living with MS, and her horse of all things, which Ann Romney rides as a therapy for her condition.

The Obama campaign has set a new low in Presidential campaigns, the likes of which has never before been seen, nor hopefully, will ever be seen again.

Absolutely correct
89  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who do you honestly think will win? on: August 16, 2012, 08:01:18 pm
Both
Romney has a good chance via the conventions to convince folks he can do better than Obama.  So he should take a lead in the polls. 

Obama has the better new voter registration and GOTV organization in the swing states.

So in Nov. Romney should win the popular vote but Obama the electoral vote and the election.
90  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: SurveyUsa - Florida likes Paul Ryan on: August 15, 2012, 09:08:35 pm
Not a surprise to me.  Seniors know Medicare is going broke and Ryan is honest enough to say so then offer a solution
91  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who is more Competent: Obama or Romney? on: August 15, 2012, 08:59:31 pm
Romney by far
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Predict final the polling numbers. on: August 15, 2012, 08:20:18 pm
I'm an optimist:
Romney 50.3
Obama.  47.8
Other.      1.9
93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama 2008 Co-Chair Artur Davis Hits Trail ... for Mitt on: August 15, 2012, 08:15:12 pm
Welcome to the GOP, hope he can other democrats to consider the GOP.
94  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: It's just before midnight on November 6th... on: August 15, 2012, 07:47:44 pm
Enjoy the moment.
Check to see if the Republicans also take the Senate.
Look forward to real changes in 2013 that start implementing the path to prosperity
95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Was Picking Paul Ryan good idea? on: August 14, 2012, 05:06:17 pm
Ryan is a great pick, the GOP can run on competence and ideas while the Democrats are left to defend incompetence and well, whatever can you say about Biden?
96  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Paul Ryan will be dropped from ticket... on: August 11, 2012, 07:34:50 pm
If anyone gets dropped from a ticket it would be "Crazy Joe" Biden
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Juan Williams: Romney needs to pick his running mate, right now on: August 08, 2012, 08:39:24 pm
6 out of the last 7 VP picks were announced less than 10 days before the convention, so it would be "unexpected" for Romney to announce this week or next
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What Do You Think Will Happen if Romney Wins? If Obama Wins? on: August 08, 2012, 07:47:11 pm
My take:

If Romney gets in:

- Economic confidence will be restored.
- Majority of ObamaCare will be repealed.
- Welfare will not become a way of life again.
- The Keystone Pipeline will get the green light on day one.
- We will not play second fiddle to China. This must be America's century.
- Tax reform will be the signature legislation of the Romney Administration.
- The situation in Iran will be resolved, sowing the seeds of peace in the Middle East.

----------------------------------------------------

If Obama gets back in we'll have a replay of the past four years, and more:

- High unemployment, especially for the nation's youth (whose well-educated are not immune).
- A continuation of the tense situation in Iran that is left for Obama's successor.
- Finishing second to China in more ways than just the Olympics.
- Unsustainable deficits that are left for Obama's successor.
- Allowing oil in Alberta to flow to China rather than Texas.
- A return to welfare as a way of life for millions.

Basically I agree (except for Iran don;t see how that ends without an attack on their Nuke facilities by Israel with us (Romney) or not (Obama).

Plus if Romney wins:
- Major role back of EPA, ADA, HHS, Energy, and Labor regulations
- Reform of Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security that puts them on a sustainable path
- Tight controls on spending that reduces growth of government to less than growth in GDP

Plus if Obama Wins
 - Continuation of Trillion dollar deficits
 - Continued rapid growth of Food Stamp recipients
99  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Race as of today on: August 08, 2012, 07:35:15 pm
Looking at polling here is what I see as the state of the race as of today based on states where Romney has been tied or in the lead at least twice in the past month or so:
Obama  288
Romney 250



Since most undecided have a negative opinion of Obama (so says Jay Cost) and are really just waiting for a good reason to vote for Romney, any state where Obama is polling below 48% will, I predict vote for Romney. Here is my prediction for Nov 6:
Obama  271
Romney 267



So Romney needs to win one more state, based on current polling there are two states where Obama is polling below 49%: MI (48.3) and OH (48.3).   

100  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What kind of election night would you prefer in 2012? on: August 06, 2012, 05:19:44 pm
A close election where recounts in OH, VA, IA determine Romney wins
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