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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Is National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Constitutional for electing POTUS? on: November 16, 2014, 02:45:26 pm
There is another argument that could be made National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is unconstitutional: it infringes on the political power of the small states.  Although we don't think often about the relative political power between the states, this was of extreme interest during the drafting of the Constitution.

The constitutional convention explicitly considered how to allocate power between the states in the Federal Government.  They decided to give unequal political power to the small states in two ways:
1) Each state has 2 Senators, regardless of population (Article I, section 3).
2) Small states have extra weight in the Electoral College, since each state is awarded a number of electors equal to the sum of Senators and Representatives, and not just the number of Representatives (Article II, section 1).

The extreme importance of giving small states extra political weight is confirmed in Article V. This article requires unanimous consent of all the states to change the allocation of Senators, rather than the regular amendment process to change any other part of the Constitution, which requires "only" 3/4 of the states to pass an amendment.

Currently citizens in the smallest states have more than twice the political power in the Electoral College as citizens from large states.  In the 2012 election, the eight smallest states (those with 3 Electoral Votes) averaged 115,000 votes per electoral vote.  In contrast, there was on average 255,000 votes per Electoral Vote in the 6 largest stated (those with 20 or more Electoral Votes).

Clearly any attempt to implement the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will reduce the political influence of the small states in the Electoral College, it would be interesting to see if the Supreme Court would take such a case.....
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / 2014 a GOP R+6 election on: November 16, 2014, 01:01:03 pm
With some counting still ongoing, currently the total GOP vote is up by 6.4%, second biggest GOP margin in the last few decades:

GOP total congressional vote: 39,537,567
DEM total congressional vote: 34,695,226

GOP net votes = 4,842,341

For updated data see:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I6S2hvDOqz5wwStCANKu0dLqX68wuEI8H9pyc8W2Cjo/edit#gid=0
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Should we make voting mandatory? on: November 14, 2014, 10:21:50 pm
No, 1) Mandatory voting is an infringement on personal liberty.
   2) If voting was mandatory it would cause uninformed, uninterested people to vote
   
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Fall of the American Empire (2016-) on: November 01, 2014, 09:11:42 pm
In a tie, the House votes by state  not with Electoral Votes.
Your map shows a 25-25 ties, not a 224-208 result.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do Democrats Always Win Close Elections? on: October 27, 2014, 09:57:24 pm
"How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. "

That's impossible, because noncitizens can't vote.
Well they can't legally vote, but since anyone can register my mail to vote, anyone can vote.
The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) found that actually non-citizens register to vote, as indicated above, and they do vote.  Perhaps requiring valid photo IDs will reduce this fraud.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do Democrats Always Win Close Elections? on: October 27, 2014, 09:26:04 pm
Perhaps the Democrats win close elections because they get a majority of illegal votes from non citizens
"How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. "
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which states will the GOP win? on: August 17, 2014, 12:56:14 pm
With Obama's approval stuck near 40%, I optimistically predict the GOP will pick up all the seats except NH

Too bad polling doesn't seem to be on your side in that argument.

The question is not who is leading in the polls today, but who will win in Nov. 
I assume the Democrats and Obama will be taking the bulk of the blame for the failed policies in Iraq, Syria, Libya etc, the continued poor economy, the mess at the border, the proposed amnesty by executive fiat, etc, etc,  With nothing getting better Nov will be a time to throw the bums out....
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which states will the GOP win? on: August 17, 2014, 11:36:48 am
With Obama's approval stuck near 40%, I optimistically predict the GOP will pick up all the seats except NH
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict winner/margin for Montana: Steve Daines vs Amanda Curtis on: August 17, 2014, 11:33:10 am
Curts seems to be both immature and to the far left:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X98qmvI6Ntc

So I expect maybe
Daines 58
Curtis  40
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What channel will you watch during Election Night? on: August 17, 2014, 11:28:31 am
I think CNN has the best data display and analysis.
Though if Republicans are winning the Senate this year I will enjoy watching MSNBC have to explain why
86  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Legitimacy of the U.S. Constitution on: March 25, 2014, 09:58:58 pm
The articles were a compact among sovereign states, equivalent to a treaty.  In ratifying the Constitution the states formed a new country and gave up most of their soverenty to this new country, which superseded  the compact, making the Constituion fully legal
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Wing of Cards on: February 28, 2014, 09:24:42 am
Excellent!   
Look forward to a 4 way spit and no winner in the Electoral College and a top three contest in the House!
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / 2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270 on: January 30, 2014, 09:28:31 am
The Democrats currently have a popular vote advantage in Presidential elections.

For Mitt Romney to have won in the Electoral College he needed the national popular vote to shift a net 5.4%, this would have netted him FL (lost by 0.9%), OH (lost by 3.0%), VA (lost by 3.9%) and either CO or PA where he lost both by 5.4%.  Thus, although he lost the popular vote by "only" 3.8% he actually would have needed a much bigger margin in the popular vote to have won in the Electoral College.  Thus in close race the Democrats could win in the electoral college while losing the popular vote by as much as 1.5%.  A similar result occurred in 2008, McCain lost the popular vote by 7.3% but would needed a net shift in the popular vote by 9.5% to have won in the Electoral College (although a shift of 9% would have caused a tie and thrown the contest to the House).

So what will happen to the Electoral College after 2020?  Current projections of population growth for each state by the Census Bureau suggest this Democrat's advantage will vanish.
(see http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-future-shape-of-the-house/ ).  Seven states will lose 1 EV each and 6 will gain a total of 7, with a net shift towards GOP states of 5.

Thus, if current trends continue, a GOP candidate would "only" need to hold the Romney states and add OH, FL, and VA to reach the minimum needed to win, 270 Electoral votes.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Tipping Point State for GOP? on: December 10, 2013, 05:37:35 pm
If Republicans run the table in every possible competitive race, and don't screw up any of their current seats (GA, KY), they could end up with 56 seats, with Alaska the tipping point:
46) South Dakota
47) West Virginia
48) Montana
49) Arkansas
50) Louisiana
51) Alaska
52) Michigan
53) North Carolina
54) Iowa
55) New Hampshire
56) Colorado

However, given the propensity of GOP candidates to shoot themselves in the foot over the last 2 elections, they'll probably end up at 49 or 50 seats, and Harry stays in control.


90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Hillary Clinton such a hero to the left? on: October 30, 2013, 11:32:16 pm
This is something I don't understand.

She has no management skills, witness her poor 2008 campaign

She looks nice and traveled a lot, but she did nothing substantial as Secretary of State.  She solved no problems (Middle east, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, Syria, etc) in fact  relations with North Korea and Iran got worse, our allies have less respect for us, the world's people has a poorer opinion of the US, the Arab Spring has been a disaster, we failed to secure either Iraq or Afghanistan, and most damning, she failed to heed requests for improved security at Benghazi leading to the death of the US ambassador.

She has no significant accomplishments as a US senator.

So does the Left like her simply because she is a woman?
91  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have voted for in in past presidential elections? on: October 14, 2013, 07:26:44 pm
Would of if I could of:
1789: George Washington (I-F)
1792: George Washington (I-F)
1796: John Adams (F)
1800: Thomas Jefferson (D-R)
1804: Thomas Jefferson (D-R)
1808: James Madison (D-R)
1812: James Madison (D-R)
1816: James Monroe (D-R)
1820: James Monroe (D-R)
1824: John Quincy Adams (F)
1828: Andrew Jackson (D)
1832: Andrew Jackson (D)
1836: Martin van Buren (D)
1840: William Henry Harrison (W)
1844: James K. Polk (D)
1848: Martin van Buren (FS)
1852: Franklin Pierce (D)
1856: John C. Fremont (R)
1860: Abraham Lincoln (R)
1864: Abraham Lincoln (NU)
1868: Ulysses S. Grant (R)
1872: Ulysses S. Grant (R)
1876: Rutherford Hayes (R)
1880: James Garfield (R)
1884: Grover Cleveland (D)
1888: Grover Cleveland (D)
1892: Benjamin Harrison (R)
1896: William McKinley (R)
1900: William McKinley (R)
1904: Theodore Roosevelt (R)
1908: William Taft (R)
1912: Theodore Roosevelt (P)
1916: Charles Evans Hughes (R)
1920: Warren Harding (R)
1924: Calvin Coolidge (R)
1928: Herbert Hoover (R)
1932: Franklin D. Roosevelt (D)
1936: Franklin D. Roosevelt (D)
1940: Wendell Willkie (R)
1944: Thomas Dewey (R)
1948: Harry S. Truman (D)
1952: Dwight D. Eisenhower (R)
1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower (R)
1960: John F. Kennedy (D)
1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (D)
1968: Richard Nixon (R)

Actual votes cast:
1972: George McGovern (D)
1976: Jimmy Carter (D)
1980: John Anderson (I)
1984: Ronald Reagan (R)
1988: George Bush (R)
1992: Bill Clinton (D)
1996: Bob Dole (R)
2000: George Bush (R)
2004: George Bush (R)
2008: John McCain (R)
2012: Mitt Romney (R)
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Sandy Effect on: January 04, 2013, 10:03:08 pm
Yes, Sandy swung NJ and NY voters to Obama, since both states went against the national trend
2012 Obama winning margin vs 2008:
Nationally decreased 3.43%
NY increased 1.28%
NJ increased 2.15%
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / For the GOP a simplified path to the White House in 2024? on: December 21, 2012, 09:28:46 am
For Romney to have won in 2012 he needed to have won VA, OH and FL, plus one other state (such as CO, IA, NH).  According to Sean Trende, after the 2020 census, and the projected reapportionment in 2020, that path simplifies to just FL, OH, VA.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/12/21/what_2012_population_estimates_could_mean_in_2020_116498.html

Of course given demographic changes even that "simplified" path will not be easy.....
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 2012: Year of the Illegal Alien? on: November 18, 2012, 01:58:33 pm
These folks left everything behind and many saved for years or even made dangerous journeys just to live in America.

These people will make fine Americans.

I guess it all depends on how you define a "fine American".   Certainly they are not self-supporting since they rely heavily on welfare.
 
Households with children with the highest welfare use rates are those headed by immigrants from the Dominican Republic (82 percent), Mexico and Guatemala (75 percent), and Ecuador (70 percent).
http://www.cis.org/immigrant-welfare-use-2011
95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Your biggest state surprises? on: November 09, 2012, 08:11:27 pm
Romney losing FL
OH being closer than VA
96  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The rehabilitation of Bush II? on: November 08, 2012, 08:39:12 pm
Well we see.  Perhaps Jeb Bush (the smart one) will run in 2016 against Hillary Clinton (the tough one).  And all the old themes will be back in vogue.
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Obama crack 3%? on: November 08, 2012, 08:35:07 pm
Google is up to date on the US totals but they are not updating the state totals,   Huff Post is updating states as well as the US total:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results/
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Romney could have won the popular vote and lst the Presidency on: November 08, 2012, 08:26:43 pm
Obama currently leads the popular vote by 2.4%, to win the popular vote Romney needed a shift of 3%.  However, a 3% shift would have only swung FL, OH and VA to Romney but he still would have been 4 EV short of winning the Presidency. So it was indeed possible Romney could have won the popular vote and lost the Presidency.

To win the extra Electoral Votes Romney would have needed one more state. The next closest state was CO and that would have required a popular vote shift of 5% for Romney to win.
So Romney could have won the popular vote by 2.5% and still lost the Presidency

There are of course two ways Romney could have won, either by convincing 2.5% of the voters to switch or encourage Sean Trende “missing” 8 million GOP voters to show up.
99  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would Obama have won under the Maine/Nebraska EC method? on: November 08, 2012, 08:23:29 pm
In 2004 the ME/NE method by Congressional district would have increased Bush's winning margin from 286 to 317 EVs.
In 2008 Obama margin would have decreased from 365 to 301.
100  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any Chance..... on: October 29, 2012, 08:46:25 am
No, Obama seems to detest Romney, can't see him offering Romney any position
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