No, Obama will lose several states he won in 2008: IN, NC, FL and possibly OH, IA, VA, and CO.  But he will not win any of the states he lost.

Although Obama leads in the polls, the problem is the polls. 

As Jay Cost has shown, most polls are currently polling registered voters (which are usually 1-2% more favorable to Democrats than likely voters) and they are using models predicting an electorate of D+4 to D+7:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-skewed-toward-obama_648770.html?page=2

But historically elections average only D+3 (2004 was D+0 and 2000 was D+4).  In fact in the June total polling by Rasmussen found unweighted, respondents were a R+1.4%.   So most polls are likely favoring Obama by at least another 2%.  This means a likely shift of 3-4% to Romney when the votes are tallied, hence the election may well result in a Romney win.

However, I do agree that if Romney wins the popular vote by less than 2% there is a very good chance Obama wins in the Electoral College.  In 2008 Obama won the popular vote by 7%, but it would have taken a 2.5% popular vote win by McCain for him to have won in the Electoral College.

Despite all our intensive poll watching and daily campaign dissections, angst about the GOP VP choice and eventually wondering who will win the debates, there is considerable data that campaigns don’t really matter. Presidential results are driven by partisanship, economic factors, job approval, and incumbency.
Good ole Larry Sabato has revised his prediction model and now has Obama winning if the 2Q GDP is positive. With two of the three predictors used in his revised model now set, a 1% 2Q GDP growth would equal a 50.2 to 49.8% Obama win. To win Romney needs the 2Q GDP growth to be negative.
So no need to read the news until Nov., be happy don't worry.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/abramowitzpolarizationmodel/

[56 percent]

Two-thirds of likely voters say President Obama has kept his 2008 campaign promise to change America.  Unfortunately only 35 percent believe the country has changed for the better while 56 percent of likely voters believe Obama’s first term has transformed the nation in a negative way.

Regardless of Obama's approval rating, when 56% think he has made the country worse it makes his re-election problematic.

http://thehill.com/polls/236627-hill-poll-majority-feel-obama-has-changed-country-for-worse

First he has to pick up Indiana and NE-02; these will be the first to fall, and if they're tossups, it's over for Mitt (it probably also means he's down in Missouri and/or Arizona). Then would come North Carolina and Florida, bringing him to 235 electoral votes. Now he has to win Ohio and Virginia, taking him to 266. The remaining 4 will come from one of Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire

As of today Romney has good leads in Missouri, Arizona, Indiana, NE-02, and NC.  He probably has a small lead in FL

Obama still has an edge in OH, VA, and IA, which is where the election will be decided.

So Obama care is realy just another big Democratic tax after all, I hope Romney will make that clear and run against it

This also makes it easy for the House to vote for repeal agian

I certainly hope Romney cuts government jobs and makes the government more efficient, saving taxpayers money and making the government more productive.

Probably this:


Obama 270 Romney 268

My rule of thumb for PPP polls: add 2 pts to the Republican and subtract 2 from the Democrat, so this would be Obama up 48-44. 
But even that seems a bit optimistic given Ras and Gallup have Romney up 1 today and RealClear has the average of polls Obama up only 1.3%

Obama ran a great campaign as a challenger, maybe the best, when he could aspire to be all things to all voters.

But so far he seems to be floundering in an attempt to run a re-election campaign, where he must actually stand for something and defend a less than impressive record

Romney has not given up on PA:

"Romney will compete heavily in Pennsylvania, James said. The campaign started slowly because of the state's late primary, he said, but "June is our big growth month."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/05/romney_eyes_pennsylvania_despite_big_obama_08_win_114381.html

Nov. 7, the day after Romney is elected.

Regarding the title of this thread, if someone is opposed to Obama is he automatically a racist?
If someone supports publicizing Obama's associations with questionable characters does that make one a racist?
Just want to know what is the criteria.

Equally plausible as people finally wake up to Obama's incompetence and tire of his blame Bush routine wears thin:

[Absolute margin of victory: 17,995,488 (Nixon 1972)]

One prediction stands out as absurd:

Absolute margin of victory:  17,995,488 (Nixon 1972)

No way Obama nearly doubles his 2008 margin, nor is Mitt likley to even match Obama's 2008 margin

Az maybe, but I could see Obama getting a lower percentage in all states

$100 to Romney.
$50 to Mia Love
$25/month to the NRSC

I plan to give to additional Senate and House campaigns in the fall when I have an idea of close races where it might make a difference.

The Republicans will retain at least 26 state delegations and elect Romney.
The Republicans will also take over the Senate and elect the GOP VP

Time to flip FL to Romney.
Quinnipiac:  Mitt Romney (R) 47%
                   Barack Obama (D-inc) 41%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida

Naturally, RecipeGate was all over the first three pages of the Herald on Weds. or Thurs.

Somehow the Globe missed the entire story!

A surprising number of plausible ways to reach a Tie!
Since at Tie goes to the House to be resolved, another set of equivalent maps is any map with a 270-268 win, but in which one faithless elector throws it to the House.  I'm sure there are many such maps as well.

Warren contributed recipes to something called the Pow Wow Chow cookbook that were obviously copied from other sources, apparently violating copyright laws.  Wonder if the statute of limitations has expired?  At the very least she has a serious ethics problem.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/05/18/did-elizabeth-warren-plagiarize-pow-wow-chow-recipes

According to RealClear polling data, Romney is currently leading Obama by 1.4% in the 5 most recent Likely Voter polls (Obama is leading when Registered voter polls are included).  So how would a national lead translate into winning enough states to reach 270 Electoral votes?

I've figured Romney's most likely path to winning was to win the McCain states, then win back the Bush states of IN, FL, NC, VA, OH, the one CD in NE, and NH.  270 exactly, without the Bush states of CO, NV, NM, or IA.




Looking over the state polling data at Real Clear (mostly registered voters and much of it out of date), shows IN, FL, NC and VA are leaning Romney or close.  But he has less support in OH and NH.  Instead he seems to be doing better than I expected in CO, IA and apparently in the non-Bush state of WI.  So maybe this will be Mitt's path to victory:



Regardless of who you think will win in Nov., what do you think would be Romney's minimum path to victory?

Yes Obama has an advantage in the Electoral College. 
In 2008 he won nationally by 7.3% but he still would have won in the electoral college even if he had lost the popular vote by 2.5%. 
I think this is because he has the superior ground game and again this year has invested very heavily in local offices int he swing states

No way, the election will be close, AZ, MT, FL will for sure go to Romney.
OH, VA, NH, IA, CO could go either way