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April 20, 2014, 03:32:04 am
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 17, 2014, 05:53:18 pm
How significant was the PQ 2011 crisis in Marois' total failure as Premier?
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 17, 2014, 04:41:45 pm
Jim Messina (Obama campaign manager) has been hired by the Tories.

Not really impressed that Labour are sitting back watching the Tories throw money at the world's best people (Crosby may be a disgusting person, but he does the job), and Labour has nobody. Ed should take their Messina and raise them an Axelrod!

And they've hired Axelrod!
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: April 17, 2014, 04:19:32 pm
From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.

Well, if UKIP do win top the poll in May (and that's a really big if, since Labour will probably come first) then that would be very bad news for Cameron (which is why, in recent months, the Tories have been tacitly playing up chances of UKIP success to soften the blow if they really are that successful), and he would pretty much have to confirm that there would be a referendum post 2015 (assuming the Tories get back in, which is far from certain), so as to try and stick a pin in UKIP. But since he has already effectively promised a referendum, I doubt confirming it would do much to harm the current pact with the Lib Dems (who have a stake in prolonging this government for as long as possible).

Anyway, apparently UKIP have aligned themselves with Arise the Republic, a minor French Gaullist and eurosceptic party... Do they stand a chance of getting any MEP's?

Not really. From what I gather, Débout la République is a small-time personality cult for the party's leader, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who ran for President in 2012 and got like 2% of the vote. Gaullism is a fractious, quelle surprise!

Their only pocket of support is in Essonne, which is just outside Paris where NDA is the Assembly Member and Mayor.
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 16, 2014, 04:52:56 pm
His name is Nigel for heaven's sake.

Nigel isn't a particularly posh name. Quentin, maybe. But not Nigel...

Nigel's less posh than Edward or Nicholas.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 16, 2014, 02:49:07 pm
Austin Mitchell standing down.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 16, 2014, 07:23:11 am
This has annoyed me a little bit more than it should've.



"Man of the people".
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 12, 2014, 02:59:17 pm
Euan Blair looking at Bootle apparently.

He's hoping to ride in on Cherie's "local roots". Roll Eyes
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 08:45:44 pm
PLQ back ahead in Charlevoix.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 08:18:01 pm
Great night for the PLQ, but nothing special when compared to past results. Running below 2008 numbers in votes.

And the CAQ aren't doing that badly.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 08:05:29 pm
QS trailing by less than 100 in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 08:00:14 pm
Worst share of the vote since 1970, their first election, for the PQ.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 07:42:35 pm
CBC say it's a majority! Fantastic.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 07:36:14 pm
Early results in Charlevoix. Priceless.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 07:29:21 pm
CAQ will be second in the PV.

I apologise.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 07:25:15 pm
CBC call it for the PLQ!
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 07:24:37 pm
Anyone got any French language streams?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 02:58:49 pm
I think Krago may have the right idea. People are in denial as to how big a PLQ win this could actually be. If the final polls are right and the PLQ ends up with a double digit lead in the popular vote - it won't be close and in fact the Liberals could get as many as 80 seats. Look at what happened in Quebec in the 2011 federal election when the NDP took 42% and the BQ took 23%? in seats it was NDP 59 and BQ 4!! The first past the post system is very unforgiving when parties lose by a wide margin.

Looking at QC electoral history the closes parallel to this election would be 1970:

PLQ - 45% and 73 seats
PQ - 23% and 7 seats
Union national - 20% and 17 seats
Creditistes - 11% and 12 seats

Sure things have changed since 1970 but this is just an example of how low the PQ seats count could go if they were really doing as badly as the final Forum poll suggests

A 44 year old election result, with a defunct former governing party, can't really tell us much.

The thing about FPTP is that it's unpredictable one way or the other. The PLQ could rack up a healthy PV margin but only be ahead on seats by 10-15 because their support's spread fairly evenly across the province and the PQ's support generally clusters in certain regions. It takes fewer votes to elect a PQ MNA.

This is a massive problem in most systems that use FPTP.

But yes, if the PLQ is over 40 and both the CAQ and the PQ are in the mid-20s, it'll be a landslide anyway.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 02:37:00 pm
So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

Completely blew a winnable writ campaign, very similar to 2003 when she was Landry's deputy. Lousy premier to be sure on the political and policy fronts. Just 2 months ago the PLQ was in disarray (extremely rare for them: last time that happened was the late '60s) and completely incoherent on many policy issues, cartwheeling or waffling. PQ went through many contortions in their first year, which smoothed out last fall.

Looking back at the disaster she was as LotO, I guess nobody should have expected any better from her as Premier.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 10:32:59 am
CAQ will be second in the PV.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 06, 2014, 05:31:37 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDsV8YumePk

This is brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 06, 2014, 04:35:40 pm
So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: April 06, 2014, 03:40:22 pm

What happened? The non-French speakers want to know too!

Panzer's said that the new FN mayors won't let schools serve menus with religious considerations. Basically taking away halal and kosher.

All in the name of laïcité, of course.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 7, 2014 on: April 05, 2014, 05:44:06 pm
How funny would it be if CAQ was able to push PQ into third?

Getting close with Angus Reid.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 02, 2014, 07:22:45 pm
Any thoughts on the Clegg/Farage debate?

Clegg did himself in, he came off as downright patronising.
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: March 22, 2014, 09:02:45 pm
Dave's got his bingo bounce at the Tories are tying Labour.

Close, but still no cigar for him though.
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