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March 02, 2015, 10:04:46 am
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: February 27, 2015, 01:39:56 pm

Worked so well for the PQ last year.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 27, 2015, 06:35:19 am
Although the Tories won't be reduced to two seats, there are some startingly comparisons to Canada 1993 here, are there not? Main centre-right party faces a challenge from a party to its right which is led by a high-profile leader, nationalist party in one province/constituent nation looks set to make huge gains, another third party could be virtually wiped out.

Incidentally, the polls at the beginning of the Canada 1993 campaign were also similar - main centre-left and centre-right party tied, right-wing populist party hovering around the 12% mark.

(And a winner leader being attacked for looking weird).

A man can dream.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 26, 2015, 02:01:55 pm
lol, is that a joke
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 25, 2015, 07:52:57 pm
What? Labour polled just shy of 37% in the capital in 2010.

Ah of course, got my data mismatched. It's late.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 23, 2015, 05:46:09 pm
I seem to remember a similar effect last time out with 1 or 2 pollsters still insisting on a 10-15% Tory lead right up until the day of the 1st debate.

Funny that Angus Reid hasn't been heard of since the last election.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 23, 2015, 12:01:16 pm
And Labour are 6% ahead in England with Ashcroft, representing an 8-9% swing.

Again, can we really trust a pollster as volatile (to say the least) as Ashcroft national?

I wonder who he uses. ICM or ComRes judging by the wild swings.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 23, 2015, 09:15:16 am
SNP problem isn't about left or right, the SNP are actually too the right of the current labour party (Ed M) They just seem to attack New labour. If labour came out in favour of rail nationalization, no auserity and scrapping Trident the cybernats would still accuse labour of betraying Scotland by siding with the tories,

The SNP situation is ing messed up

All from a party backed to the hilt by the Murdoch press and whose blueprint for independence was to, basically, turn Scotland into an oil dependent, corporate tax haven.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 23, 2015, 08:56:35 am
Can/will Jim Murphy survive (as leader of the SLP that is) if Labour gets wiped out (or anywhere close to it) in Scotland?

Well, who else do they have? He'll be there until the Holyrood election at least, I'd think.

Either of two candidates he defeated? They need someone who is to the left of the SNP, but still staunchly unionist.

Personally, I don't think dancing to the SNP's tune would work. It's not that easy. Ed defeating his brother hasn't stopped the rise of the SNP or this rise in support for the Greens.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 23, 2015, 06:43:14 am
Can/will Jim Murphy survive (as leader of the SLP that is) if Labour gets wiped out (or anywhere close to it) in Scotland?

Well, who else do they have? He'll be there until the Holyrood election at least, I'd think.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: February 22, 2015, 07:03:56 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WErexf0vPDc

This documentary was on the other night. A look into the ins-and-outs of UKIP internal politics in Thanet.

Interestingly only a passing appearance from the man himself in his own prospective constituency. Wonder why.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: February 22, 2015, 07:43:21 am
A graduate tax sounds like it could be a slippery slope to extra charging for all sorts of stuff

Like that doesn't happen anyway. Learning materials, text books, rent, etc.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Lib Dems (UK): What is their constituency? on: February 21, 2015, 07:40:08 pm
Another (more cynical) way to view the LibDems is that to win seats as... varied... as Brent Central/Redcar and Westmorland & Lonsdale/Twickenham at the same time, your only real electoral strategy is one of shameless local level populism, supported by very well targeted tactical votes and protest voters.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Lib Dems (UK): What is their constituency? on: February 21, 2015, 05:43:45 pm
A fairly typical example of a LibDem barchart being...



LOL, I love how this makes it look like the Conservative vote would have been enough to put the Libdem over the Labour guy, even though by the numbers they show he would still have lost by 3000 votes. This is Fox News territory.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/decidedly-dodgy-liberal-democrat-graphs#.bhK2zvezb
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: February 21, 2015, 02:04:21 pm
In case anybody is wondering, Labour Students does not support free education.

Labour Students probably being one of the most Blairite affiliates.

Are there any actual left wing student organizations in the UK with significant support?

No

Heck, I don't even think the NUS position is free education.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Lib Dems (UK): What is their constituency? on: February 20, 2015, 06:53:50 pm
Who'd have thought that voters not attached to any particular party would be the most likely to swing behind a new one?

"Common sense" or "flakey"?
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: February 20, 2015, 06:27:57 pm
In case anybody is wondering, Labour Students does not support free education.

Labour Students probably being one of the most Blairite affiliates.
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Lib Dems (UK): What is their constituency? on: February 20, 2015, 06:27:00 pm
UKIP voters are another matter. Thatcher-Blair-Cameron swing voters, to put it very crudely.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2040 electoral map on: February 20, 2015, 09:51:54 am
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 19, 2015, 11:14:27 am
Yeah, the Greens will pick up a lot of the trendy left-liberal middle-class student types who would be backing the Lib Dems if not for the coalition. They are reluctant to vote Labour due to the party's (still) working-class image and they'd eat their own babies before voting Tory or UKIP.

PC way of calling them snobs.

They agreed with Nick last time and got Dave. They'll agree with Natalie and Caroline again this time and swing open the back door of Number 10 for Dave (again).
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 19, 2015, 10:43:19 am
Notice that at the constituency level support for the Greens falls to low single digits

Uhh it's already on low single digits in the standard voting intention...

Some national polls suggest the Greens are as high as 7 or 8 percent. This suggests they are more like 2 or 3%

These are not constituencies you would expect the Greens to be doing well in.

These seats are anathema to the Greens. Wait for polls in studenty seats where all the inner-city hipsters live.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 19, 2015, 07:44:02 am
UKIP struggling to make a breakthrough in places they're targeting, where they did well in May last year.

22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 16, 2015, 10:41:05 am
ICM, like Ashcroft's national polls, get headlines because of their violent swings poll-to-poll so they make for fun "TORY SURGE" "MILIBAND ON A ROLL" style headlines.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 14, 2015, 09:58:42 am
The Greens appear unusually dependent on first-time voters, under-30 voters, ex-Lib Dems, students, and generally people who don't interact much with state or traditional community institutions like schools/hospitals. None of these is a good pillar for a British political party to stand on. A while back, I described their strongest seat in Brighton, Pavilion as having

Favourable demographics: largely young-adult households without dependents, very non-religious, transient, rather well-off compared to the country as a whole.

Exactly the people who latched onto Cleggmania.

Then didn't turn up on election day.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 14, 2015, 09:44:36 am
So whose support is more likely to collapse between now and May 7: The Greens or UKIP?

The Greens.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 14, 2015, 08:48:11 am

The Conservatives and the Conservative supporting press don't need to try so hard. Ed Miliband is a weak prime ministerial candidate and everybody knows it.

That only matters if you make the argument that he's up against a strong PM. David Cameron isn't a strong PM of the likes of a Thatcher or a Blair.

If Ed was so weak, so unelectable, he wouldn't be getting the kitchen sink thrown at him by the Tories and the Tory press in the way that he is because the Tories would want a positive campaign.
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