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July 05, 2015, 08:22:39 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 07:28:49 pm
What voting system do the Danes use? Here's me thinking it was plain-and-simple old closed list PR.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 06:30:30 pm
So in Denmark Proper it is 90-85 Blues.  But TV2 seems to indicate that Reds won all 4 seats in Faroe Islands and Greenland so it is 90-89 for Blues.  Is this true? What happen to the Union Party in Faroe Islands ?


Would a fair view of this election be that SD lost a fair amount of their base to the DPP, but gained quite a lot from their partners and V (but obviously, not by enough)?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: June 14, 2015, 09:12:27 am
So far Duceppe's leadership bump is no bigger than Paillé, who polled in the high 20's for a month or so after becoming Bloc leader. Disaster averted?

Depends on whose side you're on. A viable Bloc is good for both the Liberals and the Tories.

Yeah it's funny how the Liberals in particular pontificate about Canadian unity and are always trying to imply that the NDP are not truly committed to federalism...and yet at the same time the Liberals and the Tories are both obviously rooting for the separatist BQ to become a force again...such hypocrites

That's exactly how the UK Tories won last month...
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: June 12, 2015, 12:31:49 pm
That he was the Left candidate was not really what people thought at the time, even if most of the Soft Left backed him. This contest feels much more ideological than the 2010 one.

Anyway, this is one of those arguments in which everyone involved is partly right and mostly wrong: elements of the legacy of the Blair government turned pretty toxic over time (because of the approach that government took towards the political process as much as anything else) and are still hurting, but turning sharply leftwards in all respects is most unlikely to be the answer. What I find personally depressing about the 'Blairite' Right is that, much like the Hard Left, they mostly seem concerned with fighting yesterdays battles, which is certainly not something that Mr Tony could have been accused of c. 1995...

There'll be voters in 2020 who won't have even been born in 1997, never mind 1983. The whole old/new Labour thing just makes us look soooo outdated.

I wouldn't mind a candidate from the Right or the old Left, as long as they weren't covering themselves in the language of 20-30 years ago.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: June 11, 2015, 02:13:28 pm
Surely the death knell for the Liberals comes if the Tories choose a socially liberal leader?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: June 10, 2015, 12:59:49 pm
It's slightly dickish to nominate someone who is already at 35 or more imo.

It's a messed up system.

It's so open to ambitious MPs being terrified of voting Corbyn or Creagh to widen the debate, in case Burnham/Cooper/Kendall pass them over for promotion.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: June 08, 2015, 05:30:41 pm
And then there were three: Kendall has made the ballot. Meanwhile in another universe, Frank Field has decided to give his nomination to Corbyn.

Didn't he nom Diane Abbott last time? He seems the type to go for 'broad, open debate' over everything else.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: June 08, 2015, 04:47:46 am
What's actually caused Orange Crush Mark II?
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 22, 2015, 01:57:34 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32849065

Related to the collation government - by-election in Orkney & Shetland?

So she did say it then. Nicola Clegg?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 21, 2015, 11:53:20 am
A Comservative victory of one kind or another next time does seem likely right now. But when predicting far-into-the-future elections it is worth remembering Harold Wilson's most famous saying (which I also posted yesterday, incidentally).

After 2005 it was expected that Gordon Brown would steamroller David Davis (yes, him) in 2009 after a smooth transition between him and Blair occurred. But then the Tories elected Cameron, infighting broke out in Labour, Brown bottled an early election, the economy imploded and MPs expenses were exposed.

After 2001 many thought that the following Parliament would be dominated by a referendum on us joining the Euro (lol), public service reform and a battle between two modernisers - Blair and Portillo. But then the Tories decided to elect IDS, a major disaster occurred in Manhattan and Iraq was invaded.

Exactly.

We already know that the 'big 3' (or is that 'big 2 + LD' now?) and maybe even UKIP and the Greens will all have new leaders by the next election. That in itself makes things way too unpredictable at this point. Not to mention how the referendum affects things. I think the line of thinking that UKIP will fall on its face post-referendum, whether it's a yes or a no, is a bit misguided...
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 21, 2015, 11:39:59 am
My own guess (without an evidence to back it up) is that the SNP's dominance will hold up pretty well during this parliament and they'll still win the vast bulk of Scottish seats at the next general election (probably over 40 of their current MP's being returned).

Once the Conservatives are returned for a third straight term at Westminster in 2020 though the desire to get the Tories out re-establishes itself and Labour make a strong comeback north of the border in time for the 2025 general election.

That presumes that they're isn't another independence referendum in the meantime and the Scots remain within the union.

Labour will win again once voters in England don't think they'll need to get in on the back of the SNP.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 20, 2015, 12:57:40 pm
Doing the Wirral part of the map reminded me that the inclusion of Upton in Wirral West is basically electoral trolling.

Labour hadn't won WW on its current boundaries since 2001 right? Surely that's the only seat of its kind.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 20, 2015, 12:25:23 pm


And the Merseyside soviets.

So beautiful.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election. on: May 17, 2015, 11:40:36 am
The trade union leader threatens Labour with a funding cutoff if they don't pick a leader that suits him. For the sake of speculation, and putting aside whether or not the threat is real, as opposed to posturing for influence, such a TUC funding cutoff of Labour ensued, would that be a good thing or a bad thing for Labour's electoral prospects? Obviously the funding cut off would not help Labour in and of itself, but just how much, if any, is the real or perceived TUC power over Labour costing it votes, if any?

A bad thing. A very bad thing.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 10, 2015, 05:59:33 pm
Wavertree was a key target for the Libs in 2010. Everyone thought they'd take it when Luciana Berger was selected.

16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 10, 2015, 05:13:12 pm
I have question for the forum Brits.

It is harder to win government for the Tories than it is for Labour. e.g. Labour got a larger majority on a smaller vote share in 2005 than the Tories did in 2015. This difference is usually attributed to two reasons.

1) Labour vote collapses to virtually nil in many Tory safe seats, while the Tories still get half decent results in many Labour safe seats, resulting in many more wasted votes for the Tories.

2) The constituency map doesn't reflect actual populations. The Tories hold many overpopulated suburban seats while Labour holds declining rust belt areas.

I understand the first argument but not the second. Didn't the UK have a redistribution a few years ago? Wouldn't that have fixed the discrepancy? If not, how come?

The redistribution (we say boundary changes) didn't go into effect. The LibDems threw them out when they lost the AV referendum and the changes to the House of Lords around 2012-13 time.

However, the Tories put boundary changes in their manifesto, so we can assume 2020 will be fought on new boundaries, with a smaller house of 600 members.

But no boundaries can change the fact that the Labour vote is clustered into certain regions while the Tory vote is spread much more thinly.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 09, 2015, 08:02:16 pm


The South East.
That's terrifying for me... Sad

Where can Labour even try and break through?
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What should Labour do to win back Scotland? on: May 09, 2015, 06:26:41 am
Invent a time machine and kill Tony Blair before he got anywhere near Prime Minister.

The guy who won 3 landslides in Scotland?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 05:01:01 pm
The early frontrunner never wins.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 08, 2015, 04:56:11 pm
Please no Mersey Banks.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 10:58:18 am
I'm actually really happy with any of Jarvis, Burnham, Umunna or Cooper. I can't pick yet.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 03, 2015, 02:56:25 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVPmRx8q-zI Ed. Election night 2010.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 30, 2015, 07:02:18 pm
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/campden-hill-conservatives-stroke-poster-5565121

One local Tory party does the full Jean Chretien.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 30, 2015, 03:44:37 pm
Maybe he's playing the long game. Let Cameron cling on until the Queen's Speech, then dare the SNP to back Cameron.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 29, 2015, 04:01:06 pm
The Tories backed by The Sun in England, for stopping the SNP from holding the UK to ransom. The Sun in Scotland endorses the SNP.

Erm...
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