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November 23, 2014, 05:28:56 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: November 22, 2014, 07:09:44 am
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerMP/status/143660079701442560
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: November 21, 2014, 11:58:35 am
Do we remember the psephological joys of Holby City woman?
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: November 21, 2014, 05:48:54 am
Emily Thornberry resigns from shadow cabinet.

She should have followed a great sage's advice - "too many tweets might make a twat".

EdM "angrier than he's ever been".

Really? Over THIS!?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: November 18, 2014, 01:03:16 pm
Opinium
Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1)

Think that's a low for the Libs with any firm.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Hillary Clinton excite strong Obama supported while distancing herself? on: November 18, 2014, 12:40:49 pm
Well, it worked for Gore.

Oh wait.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election - To be announced on December 13 on: November 17, 2014, 06:01:44 pm
Bold prediction, Jim Murphy won't win this.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: November 17, 2014, 05:46:07 am
Assuming Reckless wins as well, how likely is it that we start seeing more Tory defections?

Very hard to say.  I'm sure there are a few Tories who are tempted, but whether they decide to jump is another matter; some of them are in UKIP-unfriendly seats (like Enfield Southgate, as mentioned above) so probably won't unless they're standing down or planning to move constituency.  Farage also talks about possible Labour defections, but I'm not sure whether anyone really believes him.

BTW the Tories are supposedly going to move the writ for Rochester & Strood next week, with polling day on 6 November.  They're also going for a postal open primary (as opposed to an open hustings followed by a vote, which is what they did in Clacton) to select their candidate.

Today's Daily Express (I know, I know) says 6 Tories are thinking of defecting post-Rochester

Grit bins full of salt obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more go.

Sort've getting towards to point now where a by-election can be kicked into the long grass.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Begich 'already plotting' for 2016 run on: November 14, 2014, 12:24:46 pm
What does the guy have to lose?
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Scenario: The United Kingdom Votes to Secede from the European Union on: November 11, 2014, 07:09:14 am
Let's suppose David Cameron's Conservatives retain control of Parliament

They don't control it at present.

Someone ought to tell Nick Clegg that.

Nigel Farage has got more of his agenda through this parliament than Nick Clegg has.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: November 09, 2014, 10:39:51 am
Once UKIP gain Rochester (I mean, it's gonna happen, let's be honest), they'll just about have received more votes than the Tories in by-elections during this parliament.

They're ~3,000 behind at the moment.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: exit polls: D: Clinton leads everywhere; R: Huck leads IA/SC, Bush leads NH on: November 09, 2014, 10:24:17 am
I have been saying that Perry is poised for a comeback. He has been all over Iowa. Assuming he is now prepped for debates, he can quickly become the frontrunner there (especially if Huckabee doesn't run)

I mean, even if his  debates are a train wreck again, if none of the other candidates run well with it, it's fine. Look at Rick Scott.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: November 08, 2014, 10:18:09 pm
Some escalation in The Observer (remember when they endorsed Nick Clegg for PM?) of the EdM story. Still no actual names of plotters or any of the 20 shadow ministers who apparently want him to go. Roll Eyes
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: November 08, 2014, 09:34:41 pm
If the Labour Party falls short next year, they would have the SNP to thank for five more years of Conservative rule.


Labour already hate the SNP, there are councils in Scotland where Labour and the Conservatives are allied to keep them out, although westminster would obviously be a different ballgame

for two reasons: withdrawing support for Jim Callaghan's ailing government in 1979 and for daring to challenge Labour's hegemony of the centre-right (see also Sadiq Khan's mission to destroy the Greens by May next year)

As many Labour people loved pointing out during the referendum campaign, the SNP aren't the left-wing heroes that they liked people to think they were. They'll do or say anything, whether it's left wing or right wing, just as long as it furthers the course of independence.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: November 08, 2014, 09:32:21 pm
It's not impossible that they'll give confidence when it matters, just as long as they get whatever they want, which they probably would if they add up to 326 with the Tories or Labour.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: November 08, 2014, 07:13:11 am
Alex Salmond rumoured to be eyeing up Inverness, Danny Alexander's seat.

The SNP came third on 18% here in 2010, but he'd have a good chance.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Deep South To Enjoy Growth of Power and Influence in New GOP Senate on: November 07, 2014, 10:29:00 am
Good way to broaden their appeal and break back into the mid-west and the purple states.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: November 07, 2014, 05:46:19 am
An "IDS-Howard" situation implies that enough in the party have already conceded we're not going to win. The PLP is obviously worried, but to the point where they think Labour's completely out the game? I don't think so.

And anyway, I personally don't think Burnham and Cooper have the network in the PLP to knock Ed off his pedestal yet.

If there becomes a feeling that there can be this bloody coup (which would inevitably bruise many who attached themselves to Team Ed (Chuka, Creigh, Reeves)) and Labour can still be unified and win afterwards, then maybe I can see it happening. But I don't think it could ever be done cleanly, so...
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: November 06, 2014, 01:23:23 pm
Miliband leadership "on the line" after two MPs make anonymous calls for him to go.

As Dugher's pointed out, maybe the party would be more worried if those two MPs defected to another party and took two safe seats with them. But the media.

Terrible news for Ed Miliband.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will the Republicans retain the Senate after the 2016 Elections? on: November 05, 2014, 10:56:06 am
No.

The Dems only have CO and NV which could be in danger. NH, WI, PA, IL are in danger and probably gone if anyone retires. OH and NC could go blue. FL could be close, but I imagine Rubio's developed a good machine and, as we saw last night, the Florida Dems are a joke and their bench is probably terrible. They also have a chance in IA if Grassley retires.

So, basically, the Dems need 4 of NH, WI, PA, IL, OH, NC, FL, IL. Not too shabby.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 09:20:25 pm
Gillespie still ahead with a collapsing lead.

Nothing to see here.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 08:35:17 pm
Story of the night, GOP making gains in their own backyard, failing to make any headway in places that they need to win if they want to beat Hillary in 2016.

They've even fallen back in crucial states like North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania, with Wisconsin and Michigan remaining to be seen.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 08:31:07 pm
AR called as polls close. Argh, harsh.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 07:56:31 pm
For no particular reason, I'd like to see a grand total House votes box for each party. It's be fun to cheer on my side.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results/house
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 07:55:57 pm
The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?

Which office are you referring to?

Indiana 7th.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 07:54:05 pm
The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?
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