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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News Poll: Clinton ties Romney leads others nationally on: January 29, 2015, 07:03:27 pm
47%.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is the SNP a socialist party? on: January 29, 2015, 01:35:48 pm
Populists.

If someone proposed they pass a blatently rightist policy, but they had it in their collective heads that it could get them a step closer to independence, they'd do it (see also: Parti Québécois 2012-14).
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 29, 2015, 01:30:21 pm
Neither the Conservatives or Labour will endorse or vote for true proportional representation as the FPTP system is the only one where it is possible for either of them to win a majority in the House Of Commons.

From their point of view better to have full power half the time than shared power with smaller parties for an unknown amount of time.

They both know it's unrepresentative (and therefore undemocratic) but naked self interest rules the roost on this issue and always has.

Within a Westminster system, they're much more likely to become New Zealand than Scandanavia. And heck, look at Wales and Scotland. The SNP have a maj which was meant to be impossible, Welsh Labour missed out in 2011 by 1 seat.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 29, 2015, 10:07:03 am
How well do SYRIZA strongholds match up with old PASOK strongholds?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 29, 2015, 10:03:43 am
Many top Tories are probably regretting that they opposed AV now.

True.

I read an interesting suggestion for Ed the other day which said he should just make PR his top, unbreakable vow. Basically, it'd say to SNP, Greens (and old Labour UKIPers) 'Vote Labour just this one last time'.

I personally think it'd be suicide, but definitely something to ponder. Scottish Labour would definately go for it considering some of the predictions being made and the lopsided result FPTP's gonna give up there.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 28, 2015, 03:29:50 pm
OK... Here we go again...

Based also on an estimate of how many new voters there are for each seat.



SNP - 37
Lab - 21
Con - 2
Lib - 1

Seems more realistic.

Maybe underestimating the tide against Labour in Glasgow, but then the SNP have been overestimated there before.

Still think Charles Kennedy's seat is at least leaning Lib.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 28, 2015, 02:46:13 pm
2. There aren't many marginal seats in Wales (hey on paper even Cardiff Central isn't). From a Labour perspective (and ignoring the Cardiff marginals) there's a low Plaid majority in Arfon and a comparatively low one in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, there are the two Pembrokeshire seats (which may be harder to gain in reality than on paper), there's the Vale of Glamorgan (which is a strange socially polarised constituency), and I guess there's Aberconwy, but I'll believe that when I see it. Incumbency can matter a lot in all of these seats. Here's the fun part though; most of Arfon hasn't had a Labour MP since the 1970s, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr was lost in 2001, and one of the Pembrokes was lost in 2005 (as was Cardiff Central).

Aberconwy and the two Pembrokeshire seats are all dominated in electorate, if not area, terms by their more Anglicised areas, aren't they?  (Which makes "Preseli Pembrokeshire" a rather odd choice of name, but there we go.)

Does anyone have a feel for why Ceredigion swung so much to the Lib Dems in 2010?  If I had a feel for that I might feel more comfortable guessing whether or not it'll swing back to Plaid...

Students and incumbency?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 28, 2015, 01:00:44 pm
Thing is, Scottish polls have shown everything from a 10 point lead to a 28 point lead this month. How on Earth can anyone project what's happening up there?

Of course, 10 points behind would still be a complete disaster for Labour, but I'm sure they'd take it considering the last few months that Scottish Labour has had.

One thing Labour should be worrying about is what's happened in Wales. They've hit 54% in this parliament, but now they're on 37% (up 1 on 2010). UKIP is clearly hurting Labour a lot more than the Cons in Wales. I imagine UKIP'll get some respectable (scarily close) 2nd places in the Valleys and in the likes of Wrexham. Only gaining their two targets in Cardiff is perfectly fine, but it's simply not good enough.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 27, 2015, 03:28:21 pm
Opinions on Ceredigion?

Traditionally one of the more difficult to predict seats in the union...
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 27, 2015, 08:34:54 am
Clever poster from the Lib Dems out today. This is the theme I'd imagine their election campaign will be built around (if they've got any sense). The Labour sign pointing left and the Tory one pointing right shows a sense of humour too! lol

Sorry it's so big. I couldn't find a smaller one on the net...



It also takes the piss out of the Conservative poster that David Cameron is standing in front of here Cheesy



And I imagine most voters'll just respond with shrug and think "Well they'll just go along with whoever wins". And their argument relies on voters forgetting that they actually enables 'reckless Tory cuts' rather than moderated them.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 03:05:21 pm
Survation poll:
CON - 31% (+2% on December poll)
LAB - 30% (-2%)
UKIP - 23% (+3%) Sad
LD - 7% (-4%)
SNP - 5% (+2%)
GRN - 3% (+1%)
OTH - 1% (N/C)

May2015 says with those results:
CON - 283 seats
LAB - 252 seats
SNP - 50 seats
LIB - 25 seats
UKIP - 17 seats Sad
GRN - 1 seat
Others - 4 seats
NI - 18 seats

Depressing.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 10:35:24 am
Standard and Poor's threaten to cut Greek credit rating.

If they really wanted to hurt Tsipras though, they'd have done it pre-election.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 05:20:59 pm
Bring on the debates
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 22, 2015, 07:10:59 pm
My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

It helps that all the participants share a mother language... even Plaid.

Oh, the leader of Plaid Cymru will find a chance to speak a good measure of Welsh in the debate.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: January 22, 2015, 04:41:49 pm

"Left-wing" nationalism
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 22, 2015, 12:57:21 pm
Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 21, 2015, 10:50:43 am
The Lab situation in Scotland makes Tories 1997 look like a walk in the park.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 21, 2015, 08:07:26 am
If this election's lost because of Green voters, Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas deserve to be 'Nader'ed.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 20, 2015, 05:40:41 am
Any theories on why the Green Party is polling so well compared to their past GE results (as far as I can see, their best showing was 1,04%, in 2005)?  Do they have any nationally known politicians/spokesmen?

A lot of the people who are currently toying with supporting them had voted LibDem in recent elections (and often before; obviously that's very age dependent) and have been looking around for someone else to vote for subsequently (i.e. in most of the country Labour has a very traditional image). I suspect we will see good Green percentages in all the university constituencies.

Labour's too Benefit Street-y for the kids of Tory voting parents, to put it crudely.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 19, 2015, 04:34:48 pm
I know little about UK politics, but is there a possible for a Conservative-UKIP coalition?

Well for one thing, UKIP will probably only win 2 seats. 3 would be like a huge feat. Even then, that's not going to be the difference between a minority and a majority. So it's a moot point.

Nothing can be written off for UKIP. They were underestimated in the 2013 locals, last year's local and Europeans, so I'd assume this years GE too.

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 19, 2015, 02:14:59 pm
I wonder if all these people telling pollsters they intend to vote Green have actually examined that party's policies?

As far as I can tell their policies are somewhere to the left of Neil Kinnock's 1987 Labour Party... so I presume not! lol



The problem isn't that. It's people not knowing about their record in places that they're already in office and people not realising that a vote for the Greens could mean they'll see a grinning Dave Cam on the steps of Number 10, waving at them through their telly on May 8th.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 19, 2015, 01:08:51 pm
New contender (via Ashcroft) for most hilarious poll of this parliament so far:

Con - 29 (-5)
Lab - 28 (nc)
UKIP - 15 (-1)
Greens - 11 (+3)
Lib Dems - 9 (+1)
Others - 9 (+3)

Leading party doing just 1% better than Michael Foot's Labour.

The week-to-week changes in Ashcroft's polls are so bizarre as to render them pointless. Bet he'll have Labour 5 ahead or something next week.

 I do have to note how this poll conveniently fits the 'Green debate' narrative. Today's Populus had them down 2% to 4% and Yougov haven't picked up on any particularly big trend to them during last week.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 18, 2015, 03:53:43 pm
Regarding the extreme parties it is worth remembering that the biggest group of undecideds describe themselves as centrists and that middle aged women are overrepresented, not the most likely group to vote radical. Most likely the centrist parties will do a bit better than the polls show.

Also likely that the far-right under poll because... far-right.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 18, 2015, 10:30:38 am
If we're being honest, after the last recession, 34% is good for Labour.

If you wanna make yourself feel better, you could think that.

A better way to put it would be that after the downfall in 2010 and a leader with a 20% approval rating, it's a miracle they still have a good chance.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 17, 2015, 08:32:32 am
Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

Along, with that matter the BNP.

The bank?
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