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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 22, 2015, 01:57:34 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32849065

Related to the collation government - by-election in Orkney & Shetland?

So she did say it then. Nicola Clegg?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 21, 2015, 11:53:20 am
A Comservative victory of one kind or another next time does seem likely right now. But when predicting far-into-the-future elections it is worth remembering Harold Wilson's most famous saying (which I also posted yesterday, incidentally).

After 2005 it was expected that Gordon Brown would steamroller David Davis (yes, him) in 2009 after a smooth transition between him and Blair occurred. But then the Tories elected Cameron, infighting broke out in Labour, Brown bottled an early election, the economy imploded and MPs expenses were exposed.

After 2001 many thought that the following Parliament would be dominated by a referendum on us joining the Euro (lol), public service reform and a battle between two modernisers - Blair and Portillo. But then the Tories decided to elect IDS, a major disaster occurred in Manhattan and Iraq was invaded.

Exactly.

We already know that the 'big 3' (or is that 'big 2 + LD' now?) and maybe even UKIP and the Greens will all have new leaders by the next election. That in itself makes things way too unpredictable at this point. Not to mention how the referendum affects things. I think the line of thinking that UKIP will fall on its face post-referendum, whether it's a yes or a no, is a bit misguided...
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 21, 2015, 11:39:59 am
My own guess (without an evidence to back it up) is that the SNP's dominance will hold up pretty well during this parliament and they'll still win the vast bulk of Scottish seats at the next general election (probably over 40 of their current MP's being returned).

Once the Conservatives are returned for a third straight term at Westminster in 2020 though the desire to get the Tories out re-establishes itself and Labour make a strong comeback north of the border in time for the 2025 general election.

That presumes that they're isn't another independence referendum in the meantime and the Scots remain within the union.

Labour will win again once voters in England don't think they'll need to get in on the back of the SNP.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 20, 2015, 12:57:40 pm
Doing the Wirral part of the map reminded me that the inclusion of Upton in Wirral West is basically electoral trolling.

Labour hadn't won WW on its current boundaries since 2001 right? Surely that's the only seat of its kind.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 20, 2015, 12:25:23 pm


And the Merseyside soviets.

So beautiful.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election. on: May 17, 2015, 11:40:36 am
The trade union leader threatens Labour with a funding cutoff if they don't pick a leader that suits him. For the sake of speculation, and putting aside whether or not the threat is real, as opposed to posturing for influence, such a TUC funding cutoff of Labour ensued, would that be a good thing or a bad thing for Labour's electoral prospects? Obviously the funding cut off would not help Labour in and of itself, but just how much, if any, is the real or perceived TUC power over Labour costing it votes, if any?

A bad thing. A very bad thing.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 10, 2015, 05:59:33 pm
Wavertree was a key target for the Libs in 2010. Everyone thought they'd take it when Luciana Berger was selected.

8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 10, 2015, 05:13:12 pm
I have question for the forum Brits.

It is harder to win government for the Tories than it is for Labour. e.g. Labour got a larger majority on a smaller vote share in 2005 than the Tories did in 2015. This difference is usually attributed to two reasons.

1) Labour vote collapses to virtually nil in many Tory safe seats, while the Tories still get half decent results in many Labour safe seats, resulting in many more wasted votes for the Tories.

2) The constituency map doesn't reflect actual populations. The Tories hold many overpopulated suburban seats while Labour holds declining rust belt areas.

I understand the first argument but not the second. Didn't the UK have a redistribution a few years ago? Wouldn't that have fixed the discrepancy? If not, how come?

The redistribution (we say boundary changes) didn't go into effect. The LibDems threw them out when they lost the AV referendum and the changes to the House of Lords around 2012-13 time.

However, the Tories put boundary changes in their manifesto, so we can assume 2020 will be fought on new boundaries, with a smaller house of 600 members.

But no boundaries can change the fact that the Labour vote is clustered into certain regions while the Tory vote is spread much more thinly.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 09, 2015, 08:02:16 pm


The South East.
That's terrifying for me... Sad

Where can Labour even try and break through?
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What should Labour do to win back Scotland? on: May 09, 2015, 06:26:41 am
Invent a time machine and kill Tony Blair before he got anywhere near Prime Minister.

The guy who won 3 landslides in Scotland?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 05:01:01 pm
The early frontrunner never wins.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 08, 2015, 04:56:11 pm
Please no Mersey Banks.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 10:58:18 am
I'm actually really happy with any of Jarvis, Burnham, Umunna or Cooper. I can't pick yet.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 03, 2015, 02:56:25 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVPmRx8q-zI Ed. Election night 2010.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 30, 2015, 07:02:18 pm
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/campden-hill-conservatives-stroke-poster-5565121

One local Tory party does the full Jean Chretien.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 30, 2015, 03:44:37 pm
Maybe he's playing the long game. Let Cameron cling on until the Queen's Speech, then dare the SNP to back Cameron.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 29, 2015, 04:01:06 pm
The Tories backed by The Sun in England, for stopping the SNP from holding the UK to ransom. The Sun in Scotland endorses the SNP.

Erm...
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 27, 2015, 06:32:55 pm
The Tories have been simmering over them not winning in 2010, never mind if he loses them a second 'sure thing' election.

Also not feeling that Boris will win the leadership. The early favourite hardly ever wins.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 27, 2015, 02:52:39 pm
SNP

As a lapsed Tory, how do you think you'll feel if they put Ed into No10?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 27, 2015, 01:12:50 pm
Surely, lets look at the Ascroft poll. No-one expects labour to get 30%, I mean that's a 1% improvement on 2010, it can't be that bad,

I don't like this argument. You can't base your opinion of an opinion poll on a 'feeling' that Labour has to be above a certain %.

I could easily say that the SNP surely can't be above 50%, but I'm not the one with a big polling firm at my disposal to ask.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 26, 2015, 06:34:12 pm
In its manifesto the SNP calls for Proportional Representation.  I wonder if the huge SNP delegation about to come in will still be in favor of PR with many of the new MP's only elected because of FPTP.  Also, would they insist on some type of Labour move toward it as a price for their support? 

Well, since they've already said they definitely won't back the Tories, Labour don't have to give them anything.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 26, 2015, 09:31:30 am
Galloway will be reelected.

And if he is, Labour will probably take it to court over 'false statements' made about that the arranged marriage.

Don't feed the troll.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 26, 2015, 08:21:22 am
Galloway will be reelected.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: April 26, 2015, 08:20:03 am
Anyone up for predicting every seat? Tongue

I've got a map, but I'm still tinkering round the edges.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 25, 2015, 12:32:58 pm
I do hope the BBC's election night coverage will focus on, you know, the results this time. Last time it was awful - mostly a combination of Andrew Neil on a boat (interviewing people even more obxious than he) and empty speculation about post-election deals. Oh yeah, and no end of talk about voting problems in Sheffield.

But I feel that it could actually be worse this time. Sad

I do think the narrative of the night will be the SNP. Last time it was the LibDem failure to live up to the polls. As soon as the exit poll came out, I remember Dimbleby being like "well with that LD result, take that with a pinch of salt", and it turned out to be mostly correct and we got to see Clegg on the verge of tears at his count (imagine him this time, ay).

The election deal chatter may be less speculative this time, since we basically know who's gonna go with who, so it's a bit more about parties hitting their targets. If Labour's at about 265 or more, they're in, if the Tories are anywhere north of 280-285, they can just about squeeze back in. Clegg saying he won't touch the SNP with a barge poll basically implies he'll go with the Tories, surely (although, he's not a man averse to breaking his word, as we know).
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