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March 28, 2015, 05:13:37 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 27, 2015, 07:23:26 pm
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3335_27_03_15_7_19_57.png

Had a crack at making a constituency map, based on the BBC one. I'll tidy it up if I have some spare time.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 27, 2015, 04:25:22 pm
again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 26, 2015, 02:34:54 pm
And now we enter the world of last minute retirements; there are always a few of these (largely because they entail - for various practical reasons - a suspension of the usual candidate selection methods). It seems that the first is Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Coventry North West) who has been an MP since a by-election in 1976.

I saw something reeling off a list of EdM-ists who'll probably end up getting these. Lord knows he needs some kind've base in the PLP finally.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 25, 2015, 05:11:39 pm
A coup attempt against Bercow is taking place...
I'm confused. Why do Tories want to dump the Speaker from their party in favor of someone from Labour?

Prior to his election Bercow had been something of a thorn in the side of the Tory leadership and often voted with Labour. He was elected mostly on the back of Labour MPs - almost all Tory MPs voted for Sir George Young (another Tory MP) in the final round. During his time in the chair he has been seen as biased against the Tory benches.



Any obvious candidates to replace him?

I'm reading it's because the  LibDems are having a hissy fit over their botched 'budget' last week. Typical.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is there any difference between the Miliband brothers? on: March 25, 2015, 07:34:02 am
There's certainly just something about Ed that makes him get under the Tory's skin more than his brother would've.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 24, 2015, 04:28:34 pm
As an aside, an amusing thought: Let's say the Tories remain in government after May 7th. Burnham succeeds Miliband. Johnson succeeds Cameron at some point during the next parliament. Tories fail to break 1% in any Liverpool constituency in 2020. Tongue

Amazing to think that Maggie Thatcher actually gained Liverpool Garston from Labour in the 1979 general election with a 2787 majority and held Liverpool Wavertree with a majority of 6942. 

Not surprisingly they haven't won a seat in the city since.

Freedom city.

Gonna be the most Labour city by a country mile this time, since Glasgow's gone.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is there any difference between the Miliband brothers? on: March 24, 2015, 04:27:15 pm
Ed Miliband is decent. People need to watch the 2010 leadership debates, and see that Ed actually had a vision for the country. This what annoys me about Ed, he gets called a weak leader, a squib etc when in fact he's been the most powerful leader of the opposition since Attlee.

David Miliband, in 2010 was an unshameful new labour Blairite, who backed away from challenging Brown in 2008 (Something he should of done). He ran pretty much like Clinton did in 2008-basically a safe establishment candidacy that refused to accept that New Labour had failed in some areas.

There's an idea from the Tory press that David is better, when in fact David would have voted to attack Syria in 2013 (leaving it open to ISIS) David would never have stood up to Murdoch and David would never of pledged to cut tution fees whilst hitting pensioners.

Ed Miliband is the best the left are going to get, and if he loses then well we're going to be ed

Should we lose in May, that'll be the tragic thing about Ed's leadership. He has so much potential and he's proved that he's a better leader than David ever could've been, but nobody seems to have noticed.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is there any difference between the Miliband brothers? on: March 24, 2015, 04:02:25 pm
Why do people hate Ed Miliband? I never understood.

Hate is a strong word. To say people think of him as a bit of an out of touch, damp squib is probably more accurate.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is there any difference between the Miliband brothers? on: March 24, 2015, 02:36:26 pm
David is a good human being, unlike Ed.

Erm, even as a former David voter, most people would respectfully disagree with this.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 24, 2015, 02:28:24 pm
SNP fairly openly saying that they would vote down a Tory government/coalition Queens Speech. Sturgeon is apparently debate prepping right now to essentially sell the SNP to the UK electorate as the party that 'forces Labour to act like Labour' in government. There's some suggestion that Salmond strutting at Westminster these past few weeks, coupled with intense focus on him as being the SNP by parties and the media is simply designed to give Sturgeon a bit of an impact on the day.

The struggle is, as is the struggle for the other 6 leaders is, because there's so many of them, it won't just be about her so there's limited space for her to get a look in - especially on anything anybody south of the border will care about.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 24, 2015, 08:04:42 am
It just reeks of arrogance to even be discussing a third term when he barely even got one and is struggling for another. This kind've born to rule presumption is exactly the reason the people who hate, hate him.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 23, 2015, 02:02:16 pm
Well considering he's more popular than his party, surely this is a bad move.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 23, 2015, 12:28:56 pm
Can we presume there's been no budget bounce or what?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 21, 2015, 03:41:56 pm
We all know that notoriously sh!tty debater David Cameron's endlessly shifting final demands over the debates are probably not unconnected to the fact that he is a notoriously sh!tty debater.

Of course! Why else would he have stuck to what he wanted to do? Smiley

Oh come on now, you're better than that. Do you not remember how he treated GB last time when he spent a while making up his mind on the debates? EdM and the PM will be in the same studio and the same time, but they won't debate. What kind've farce is that?

He knows that the debates shot his chances at a majority in the arm last time and he's scared of that happening again.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 21, 2015, 11:47:10 am
Agreement on debates reached. One seven-way debate on ITV on April 2nd, a 90-minute grilling of Cameron and Miliband on Channel 4/Sky News on March 26th, a five-way opposition leaders debate on the BBC on April 16th and a Question Time special on April 30th with Cameron, Miliband and Clegg each appearing individually (which is something that has happened in the past).

Presumably there will be a 'Chancellor's Debate' at some point too.

Cameron the coward.

Imagine if Gordon Brown had tried to pull this one.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 21, 2015, 07:54:04 am
The problem with forecasting the UK election is surely that, with another record number of undecideds (again) and the main party leaders all being about as popular as a dentist appointment, things are vulnerable to a late swing. Also things like the new voter registration system which could invariably affect the #GreenSurge and parts of the SNP's new found support, in a similar way that young, hipstery LibDems in 2010 didn't show up for them on the day.

I mean, the polls overstated the Libs and understated Labour by a couple of % last time. Not by much in the final few days, but definitely by enough to affect the narrative on election night and to shape the coalition talks.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Canada's Liberal Party on: March 20, 2015, 07:58:48 am
Historically, FP, but in the last 30-40 years, they've been so ineffectual that they've basically become HP by default.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 18, 2015, 11:54:14 am
Will NI be another no change election all right like last time?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 12:30:33 pm
Cameron has agreed to a single seven-way debate in early April.

Wait, so what's actually on the cards? Last time I checked, the two 7-way debates were on and the broadcasters were gonna do the Ed-Dave one, but empty seat the PM.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: March 16, 2015, 12:22:30 pm
it's possible that the Kippers come up through the middle if they have a really good election.

In Southport? No.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 16, 2015, 08:38:37 am
Miliband has ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

Was never gonna happen. As I said somewhere else here, confidence and supply and Miliband can dare them to vote him out and give Cameron/new Tory leader a chance to scrape together a government.

Also puts pressure on the Tories here to say they'd never let UKIP into the gov. The Liberals must be rubbing their hands together.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: March 15, 2015, 10:39:16 am
Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.

Guys you're basically describing how Margaret Thatcher first became Prime Minister

Exactly. And we all know how that went down with people north of the border.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 13, 2015, 10:17:06 am
Labour ahead by 3 (32-29) and UKIP on 18% with Populus.

Also, the MORI leader ratings show a noticeable (if modest) increase for Miliband over the past several months.

Dead cat bounce after the failed coup.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: March 12, 2015, 08:23:37 pm
Why has no-one created a minor right-wing party that isn't an utter joke?

Because when you have a party who can elect Tony Abbott as their leader, there's not really much space left for other hilarious right-wing parties.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: March 12, 2015, 06:56:24 pm
Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
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