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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 02:24:05 pm
I think there is still a big gap for Ukip there. Lots of Ukip voters genuinely are sick of immigrants and, like their European brothers, want to do something about it. Nick Clegg wasn't going to win those votes.

Chicken or the egg. Are people saying they're sick of immigrants because UKIP's on the rise, or are UKIP on the rise because people are sick of immigrants?

Nick Clegg surged after the debates because he was the 'trendy' option. UKIP is surging now because they're the 'trendy' option. Similarly, the Greens are doing well amongst young people because they're a 'trendy' option.

Labour and the Tories are just seen as out of date and stale. If the Tories were able to get an out-and-out populist like Boris leading them, it'd help them a bit. Same goes with Labour.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 02:04:43 pm
The Cleggasm turned from a blessing into a curse. If there'd been no debates, no Clegg surge, the last four years wouldn't have been so difficult for the Libs.

Interesting alt-historical scenario! Before the debate, I think they were bobbing along below their 2005 score, around 16-22% depending on whom you asked. Given the Conservatives' strength and the fact that most Lib Dem seats were and are won on not-very-big majorities against the Conservatives, they might have ended up on 35-40 seats instead of 57 with the Conservatives strong enough to govern with Unionist support. If they ended up in opposition, they might have indeed bounced back to 60 seats or so. But that's conditional on something they didn't know: that Ed M would be dire and fail to mobilise opposition to the government around Labour. And it doesn't really leave them much better-off than they started anyway, unless they eventually do get into government, and then they betray one side or the other of their support anyway...

I don't think Ed would've won the leadership had the Libs not been in government. The momentum behind his campaign was, in part, a response to the LibDems entering government.

A more interesting alternative scenario is Cameron winning a small majority/going for a minority, and Nick Clegg becoming the Nigel Farage anti-establishment character.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 01:08:45 pm
I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

Well exactly.

That might've worked if the electorate had felt anyway included in the post-election manoeuvrings by the parties, but they didn't. I think the way the Liberal Democrats sort've think they deserve to be in government post-election (even if they do fall from 24% to, say, 8%) is quite offensive to the electorate.

The LibDem result is going to be more of a rejection than 1997 way for the Tories and definitely more than 2010 was for Labour.

My recollection is that the dramatic fall in their support came after the first Osborne budget, when it became obvious to their voters what the leadership had signed up for. (Yellow Submarine, to be fair to him/her, was a "Project FDP" skeptic.)

Well their fall in the polls started on day one, mostly because many saw them as a safe option - Diet Labour. I have fond memories of #DontDoInNick trending on Twitter in the days after the election, before he entered government. I think that's part of their problem they've struggled to address and will probably never be able to.

The Cleggasm turned from a blessing into a curse. If there'd been no debates, no Clegg surge, the last four years wouldn't have been so difficult for the Libs.

For many of the voters who've left them, merely the act of selected David Cameron as Prime Minister was enough for them to leave the party forever. What must voters in seats like Barnsley, Bradford and Redcard have thought of that.

The decline, of course was accelerated with the budget, CSR and then the tuition fee protests/riots.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 12:38:29 pm
Of course the Lib Dems stubbornly defending all things EU just makes their plight worse. Listening to their spokespeople on tv it's as if the Euro crisis never happened and everything in the EU garden is currently all beautiful and rosy.

Their pro-EUness is slightly ironic as their voters (and currently ex-voters) in the West Country tend to be quite Eurosceptic.

Incidentally Iain Dale who predicted 35 Lib Dem seats at the next election in March is now predicting they'll win 28.

I'm currently predicting 25-30, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did worse than that. Going to be some very odd results across the country in May, especially so in LD seats.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 12:18:59 pm
I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

Well exactly.

That might've worked if the electorate had felt anyway included in the post-election manoeuvrings by the parties, but they didn't. I think the way the Liberal Democrats sort've think they deserve to be in government post-election (even if they do fall from 24% to, say, 8%) is quite offensive to the electorate.

The LibDem result is going to be more of a rejection than 1997 way for the Tories and definitely more than 2010 was for Labour.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 11:43:48 am
I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 10:17:36 am
Ashcroft has the LibDems in 5th.

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 19, 2014, 12:32:50 pm
And who knows? If Cameron and the Greens get their way, we could see "Lucasmania" after the debates.

If only the Greens were lucky enough to still have Lucas as their leader though. Natalie Bennett is a gift to her opponents.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 19, 2014, 03:48:54 am
Aren't the Greens wildly unpopular in Brighton? I would've thought Labour were in with a shout of taking it back.

For them to think they have a chance anywhere outside of Brighton Pav is, quite frankly, hilarious.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 18, 2014, 11:42:46 am
A lot of negativity on here towards UKIP. However their central policy (withdrawal from the EU as the EU is on an irrevocable course towards a federal superstate which is not in the UK's interests to be a part of) has widespread support among the British public.



Your point being?

My point being is that there would not be such a thing as the UK Independence Party if it were not for this central issue. They may have policies that cover most other stuff but they are essentially a single issue party.

Put it another way, is everyone here comfortable with the United Kingdom becoming part of a federal European superstate at some point in the future and if so why?

Every poll shows UKIP voters more bothered about immigrants, foreigners and benefits, not necessarily the EU.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 18, 2014, 09:40:41 am
A lot of negativity on here towards UKIP. However their central policy (withdrawal from the EU as the EU is on an irrevocable course towards a federal superstate which is not in the UK's interests to be a part of) has widespread support among the British public.

I'm a strong supporter of Britain remaining in the EU, but my distaste for UKIP has rather little to do with that.  It has more to do with other reactionary tendencies in the party, especially the scapegoating of immigrants and the tendency towards climate change denialism.  See also "Poujade, Pierre".


Their stance on the EU isn't too different to most Tory's position (outside of Cameron's clique at the top of the party). Although I think that's a profoundly destructive opinion, I'd be able to get past it. My problem with UKIP is that they're a racist party. End of story.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 17, 2014, 06:57:41 pm
If the polls are still displaying roughly the same picture on May 7th 2015 as they are now then will anyone really bother doing an exit poll?

In 2010 the final polls all had the Lib Dems significantly higher and Labour significantly lower than the exit poll and the final results.

yes,  I remember Election Night Special that year, they spent nearly an hour discussing what might have  caused the exit poll to be so far off until it emerged that it was spot on and the LibDems were actually losing seats.

Indeed. Listen to the instant disbelief about the LD number.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-G4_y_2K_E#t=4m50s
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 17, 2014, 05:35:23 pm
"Coakley" became a verb for 'to lose hilariously' way back in 2010.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 17, 2014, 02:27:39 pm
A lot of negativity on here towards UKIP. However their central policy (withdrawal from the EU as the EU is on an irrevocable course towards a federal superstate which is not in the UK's interests to be a part of) has widespread support among the British public.



Your point being?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 17, 2014, 09:41:43 am
If the rise of the UKIP will result in the House of Commons finally being elected by some form of proportional representation, then they will have been a net force for good.

Wow, gross.

The rise of a racist party that makes many feel like unwanted guests in their own country, a party which has trashed even further our political discourse, but HEY, but our votes might be counted in a different way. Great.

You are trivializing this. PR could potentially change both the political process and landscape quite a bit. You could argue that FPTP simply isn't real democracy, because you are forced to either waste your vote or vote for the lesser evil.

"Forced" is the wrong word. No one is forced to vote for any party, but I understand what you mean, obviously.

But to cheer on UKIP because we might get PR because of it is bordering on offensive.

One thing I remember about the AV referendum is that those who are so obsessed with this issue often tend to fail to see the bigger picture. PR would be a god-send though, of course.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 17, 2014, 08:19:27 am
If the rise of the UKIP will result in the House of Commons finally being elected by some form of proportional representation, then they will have been a net force for good.

Wow, gross.

The rise of a racist party that makes many feel like unwanted guests in their own country, a party which has trashed even further our political discourse, but HEY, but our votes might be counted in a different way. Great.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 15, 2014, 03:56:02 pm
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/10/15/the-inside-story-of-the-labour-reshuffle-that-never-was/

Before Heywood, Miliband was planning to get Cooper and Balls to swap jobs.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 15, 2014, 07:18:03 am
I imagine any form of 5+ leader debate would remove any air available to build another Clegg-style surge.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 15, 2014, 07:15:25 am
Jeremy Browne stepping down in Taunton Deane. Don't think many saw this coming and it's one less candidate in a LD leadership election next year.

I'll be shocked if this isn't a Tory gain.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 14, 2014, 04:02:26 pm
The fact that the Conservatives are still hovering at 30% while UKIP is in the mid-teens is amazing.  They're doing what the Canadian PC's couldn't - lose their crazy uncles and still remain the primary center-right party.

The PCs started the 1993 campaign level pegging with the Liberals...

Indeed, here's the first poll of the '93 campaign

37-35-10-8-8

Not all that different from the UK today when you consider that Mulroney's coalition included Quebec nationalists. Of course, I doubt Cameron will poop the bed like Kim Campbell.

And Canada-sized swings are a rarity in the UK.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 14, 2014, 11:36:07 am
The fact that the Conservatives are still hovering at 30% while UKIP is in the mid-teens is amazing.  They're doing what the Canadian PC's couldn't - lose their crazy uncles and still remain the primary center-right party.

For now.

But must insert usual statements of 'oldest political party on Earth', 'they've survived worse', etc.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 13, 2014, 09:52:41 am
I don't see why Plaid and the SNP should be involved. Scotland and Wales had separate debates last time which makes a lot more sense.

Also, I seem to remember Sky genuinely promising to empty chair Gordon Brown last time when he was dragging his feet. Don't see them doing that to Cameron now he seems to have cold feet.

A Cam-Ed-Clegg debate following a Cam-Ed debate would be hilarious though because it'd just become 'rip Nick Clegg to pieces for 2 hours'.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 13, 2014, 09:51:22 am


Pandering to UKIP.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: October 12, 2014, 03:43:34 pm

DSK will be reelected.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 12, 2014, 03:41:57 pm
Though never forget that every other election is proclaimed to be the least predictable in recent memory.

Not many things since election 2010 have been 'normal' though. The Lib collapse, Coalition, referendum, UKIP, Ed Miliband being the Miliband who became leader, all three leaders being about as popular as ebola. The only weird political manoeuvrings 2005-2010 really had was a constant Labour leadership crisis.
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