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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: Today at 02:26:32 pm
Stranger things have been known, but right now it seems likely that UKIP only have a reasonable chance of gaining seats where they had substantial leads in either the 2013 or 2014 locals; I think the only Labour-held seat where that's the case is Grimsby.

A historical polling tendency - not a 'rule', just a tendency - to be aware of: it has usually been the case that the percentage of people expressing support for non-'mainstream' parties declines as the General Election gets closer.

Well, of course. And of course, next May, Nige' won't have the free run of the entire press and media that he basically had this May.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: Today at 01:07:51 pm
What seats would UKIP possibly win, other than Farage's?

Ashcroft constituency polls (for what they're worth) just showed them ahead in both Thurrock and South Thanet (the latter may be Farage's) and only just behind in Great Yarmouth and Camborne & Redruth.  Various other seats near the East and South Coasts seem like at least outside chances for them as well: Boston & Skegness, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, maybe North Thanet, possibly a couple on the Sussex coast.  I'd also mention Castle Point, mainly because it seems like a rather UKIP sort of place.  Of seats currently held by Labour, I'd think the one in most danger of going purple is Great Grimsby, but Survation and Ashcroft polls there have both shown Labour well ahead.


2 or 3 in South Yorkshire probably worth keeping an eye on.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 29, 2014, 02:31:22 pm
Even since the UKIP surge in 2013, I have become convinced that the next election will see the following vote shares:

Conservatives 30%
Labour 30%
UKIP 20%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 5%
Others 5%

According to Electoral Calculus, that would result in a House of Commons with: Labour 317, Conservatives 274, Liberal Democrats 29, SNP 7, Plaid 3, Greens 1, Northern Ireland 18

UNS will be even more irrelevant this time round. I think UKIP could get more than 10 if that was the vote share.
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: July 29, 2014, 04:08:28 am
Labor needs to sort this out and pronto.

Would one of the Australians explain us what happened?

Basically the former Premier was recorded having a justified but impolitic spray at the social conservatives in his party and those who removed a decent sitting Minister from her seat.

No one was exactly sure where these tapes came from etc etc... but it appears the Opposition at the very least had heard these tapes or as they're being called, 'recordings' but it's not known if they were the ones who leaked or facilitated the leak etc etc.

There are a lot of unanswered questions about their role in the affair. 

Didn't a similar thing torpedo federal Labor in 2010?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 28, 2014, 04:04:09 pm
The Tories on their lowest ever with ComRes tonight at 27%.

Terrible news for Ed Miliband.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 28, 2014, 01:45:33 pm
Have I missled something. Is not Labour leasing in the polls?! And does not the Tories need like a nine point lead to get its own majority? And what about this fact, will not the boundaries change in order to be more representative?

No, you're right, but there are a lot of people (particularly those in the Conservative supporting media, as well as vehement opponents of Miliband within the Labour party) who think that somehow the Conservatives will magic up a second term utilising a combination of Ed Miliband's seeming lack of credibility and the slow but steady recovery.

The promised EU-Referendum is was the third Tory-hope.

The thought that a referendum pledge would stop UKIP in it's tracks ended a long time ago now.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 28, 2014, 06:50:27 am
Boundary change will always be bad for the LibDems because of the nature of their targeting strategy.

I think Clegg's seat became a LibDem-leaning marginal which would, quite easily, go to Labour because of wards that would've been taken in from Penistone, where the Libs don't have a ground game.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 27, 2014, 12:22:31 pm
From John Rentoul in his Independent blog:

The Kinnock Comparison

The point of the Newark by-election for Ed Miliband, however, is that Labour was nowhere. The relevant comparisons for Labour are the Monmouth by-election in May 1991, won from the Conservatives by Huw Edwards for Labour, and Langbaurgh in November 1991, taken from the Tories by Ashok Kumar, Labour.

Those were before Neil Kinnock went on to lose the general election in April 1992.

Last Sunday I asked if in Miliband Labour has got its Kinnock back. Actually, it is not even doing that well.



Neil Kinnock didn't have Nigel Farage to deal with though.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 26, 2014, 06:48:24 pm
Some more thoughts on EdM/DavidM.

The funny thing about the whole "David would've been PM-in-waiting, Ed isn't" is that one of the things that brought the last minute swing to Ed in the leadership election was the perception that David was too wonky and cold and too geeky and robotic, to the point where many thought he'd never connect with voters. Seeing this, the Ed camp launched the 'Ed Speaks Human' meme (which was quickly forgotten by the press as soon as the result was announced, of course) in an indirect attack on David's (in)ability to connect with people.

I doubt it had much effect within the unions or the membership caucuses, but I'm sure undecided MPs will have taken that argument into account considering many had (apparently) been on the receiving end of David's... coldness. And of course, 1 MP/MEP is worth thousands of union/members votes under the Labour electoral college.

If you watch some of a David speech, then some of an Ed speech, the only real difference in terms of charisma/presentation (whatever you want to call it) is Ed's lisp.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 25, 2014, 01:18:51 pm
The Liberals have changed their name countless times (each one as wishy-washy as the last) and it's never done them much good.

And anyway, it's Ed who's on course to be PM this time next year leading a Labour Party government, no matter the name.

And on David, the fact he and his backers spent 3 years sniping at his own brother from behind-the-scenes and then ran away and threw his dummy out the pram rather than use his considerable political skills (yes, he's a good politicians, of course) to help get his brother elected PM just shows that he'd never have the temperament to make an effective leader.

The biggest electoral story of this parliament (in my opinion) has been the collapse of the LibDems and a massive chunk of their voters becoming as rusted onto the Labour base as anyone who'd voted Labour their whole life. David would simply not have been able to achieve this, these people would've ended up trotting off to the Greens. David's brand of Blairism, while attactive to many, would've been absolutely toxic to these left-liberals and would've driven even more 'old' Labour voters to UKIP than Ed has.

As Cameron has proved, you need to do more than look good on TV in order to win an election or be a popular leader.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 24, 2014, 07:05:08 pm
With "BigBrother" (=D.M.) a LAB-victory were inevitable.

It wouldn't. David would never have won over former LibDems like Ed's been able to, the Greens would've become a massive problem for us in the same way UKIP has for the Tories.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 24, 2014, 01:53:31 pm
There's no alternative candidate at this point. No one's on manoeuves, and if anyone's laying the groundwork for a leadership campaign after the election, they're keeping it well hidden (unlike D.Miliband this time 5 years ago who was quite obviously getting ready for the leadership race).
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 23, 2014, 07:10:25 am
He's the member for Bradford East. Doing things like this is a kind've desperate, dirty, identity politics. Look at how George Galloway ran his campaign in the other Bradford seat.

He'll be out in May anyway.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 22, 2014, 04:48:32 am
Yeah, it's number 10 or resign for Miliband.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 21, 2014, 11:23:59 am
Indeed, the collapse of the BNP has been one of the funnier side-stories of this parliament.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 21, 2014, 11:17:37 am
Nick Griffin ousted as leader of the BNP after nearly 15 years.

He's to be replaced by a disgraced former teacher Adam Walker.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Present Israel-Palestine Conflict Thread on: July 21, 2014, 09:53:35 am
https://twitter.com/IDFSpokesperson/statuses/491146412009070592

Stay classy Tel Aviv.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 21, 2014, 08:17:58 am
All three leaders will be in place on Election Day.

Although, I wouldn't rule out another failed coup in the LibDems.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 20, 2014, 02:12:08 pm
Dan Byles standing down in North Warwickshire, the most marginal Tory seat in the country.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 20, 2014, 07:28:32 am
For anyone who's thinking Labour will lose (I'm not, but whatever), Andy Burnham is by far the most popular member of the Shadow Cabinet among the grassroots, looking forward to any hypothetical leadership election.
21  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: If the president elect dies before being sworn in... on: July 19, 2014, 06:39:58 pm
No.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 19, 2014, 03:03:44 pm
Making certain assumptions about the results in Norn Iron (five Sinn Féin MPs who don't vote at Westminster and three SDLP MPs and one Sylvia Hermon who will probably support Labour) Labour need 319 seats to control the Commons.  With 315 they could try to do confidence and supply deals with Plaid and the SNP and form a minority government.  It would be a surprise for it to last a full parliament, though.

I also don't expect the Lib Dems to go as low as 11 seats, but if they did I think it would be very hard to keep them in office.

Depending on the referendum and its aftermath, a deal with the Nats could be playing with fire. Who knows what they'll demand?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 18, 2014, 07:17:00 pm
Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

326 seats is a one-seat majority, so the first member to resign or die will make it a minority government; and I don't think the Lib Dems will want another coalition after 2010-2015.

I suppose they could get supply from some small parties (anyways, you can always get the support of Northern Irish parties against a few goodies (especially SDLP considering it's Labour).

If a coalition only got Labour-Lib to a tiny majority anyway, I think Labour would much prefer another election.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA-Boston Globe: Baker (R) moves within MoE of Coakley (D) on: July 18, 2014, 03:21:49 pm
She gonna Coakley (verb) it again?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2014 on: July 17, 2014, 06:25:41 pm
Interesting result in Redditch. Labour gained a seat from UKIP, with UKIP had won off the Tories in May.
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