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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 24, 2014, 07:05:08 pm
With "BigBrother" (=D.M.) a LAB-victory were inevitable.

It wouldn't. David would never have won over former LibDems like Ed's been able to, the Greens would've become a massive problem for us in the same way UKIP has for the Tories.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 24, 2014, 01:53:31 pm
There's no alternative candidate at this point. No one's on manoeuves, and if anyone's laying the groundwork for a leadership campaign after the election, they're keeping it well hidden (unlike D.Miliband this time 5 years ago who was quite obviously getting ready for the leadership race).
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 23, 2014, 07:10:25 am
He's the member for Bradford East. Doing things like this is a kind've desperate, dirty, identity politics. Look at how George Galloway ran his campaign in the other Bradford seat.

He'll be out in May anyway.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 22, 2014, 04:48:32 am
Yeah, it's number 10 or resign for Miliband.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 21, 2014, 11:23:59 am
Indeed, the collapse of the BNP has been one of the funnier side-stories of this parliament.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 21, 2014, 11:17:37 am
Nick Griffin ousted as leader of the BNP after nearly 15 years.

He's to be replaced by a disgraced former teacher Adam Walker.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Present Israel-Palestine Conflict Thread on: July 21, 2014, 09:53:35 am
https://twitter.com/IDFSpokesperson/statuses/491146412009070592

Stay classy Tel Aviv.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 21, 2014, 08:17:58 am
All three leaders will be in place on Election Day.

Although, I wouldn't rule out another failed coup in the LibDems.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 20, 2014, 02:12:08 pm
Dan Byles standing down in North Warwickshire, the most marginal Tory seat in the country.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 20, 2014, 07:28:32 am
For anyone who's thinking Labour will lose (I'm not, but whatever), Andy Burnham is by far the most popular member of the Shadow Cabinet among the grassroots, looking forward to any hypothetical leadership election.
11  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: If the president elect dies before being sworn in... on: July 19, 2014, 06:39:58 pm
No.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 19, 2014, 03:03:44 pm
Making certain assumptions about the results in Norn Iron (five Sinn Féin MPs who don't vote at Westminster and three SDLP MPs and one Sylvia Hermon who will probably support Labour) Labour need 319 seats to control the Commons.  With 315 they could try to do confidence and supply deals with Plaid and the SNP and form a minority government.  It would be a surprise for it to last a full parliament, though.

I also don't expect the Lib Dems to go as low as 11 seats, but if they did I think it would be very hard to keep them in office.

Depending on the referendum and its aftermath, a deal with the Nats could be playing with fire. Who knows what they'll demand?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 18, 2014, 07:17:00 pm
Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

326 seats is a one-seat majority, so the first member to resign or die will make it a minority government; and I don't think the Lib Dems will want another coalition after 2010-2015.

I suppose they could get supply from some small parties (anyways, you can always get the support of Northern Irish parties against a few goodies (especially SDLP considering it's Labour).

If a coalition only got Labour-Lib to a tiny majority anyway, I think Labour would much prefer another election.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA-Boston Globe: Baker (R) moves within MoE of Coakley (D) on: July 18, 2014, 03:21:49 pm
She gonna Coakley (verb) it again?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2014 on: July 17, 2014, 06:25:41 pm
Interesting result in Redditch. Labour gained a seat from UKIP, with UKIP had won off the Tories in May.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 16, 2014, 07:53:11 pm
Clegg announces that he wants the Bedroom Tax scraped.
Having heard this, Rachel Reeves announces another Bedroom Tax vote in the Commons.
Clegg panics and the LDs say they only meant they want it "reformed".
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Results Thread on: July 16, 2014, 08:18:01 am
the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

I'm afraid I was deceived by a false friend (indeed, 'militancia' and 'miltancy' are not exactly the same thing). I guess 'membership' is correct too. Anyway, the PSOE 'activists' elected a new leader called Pedro Sánchez Castejón (42), who defeated Eduardo Madina (38) and other candidate from the left faction . He's economist, skillful in political marketing and has been an unknown backbencher to date. It's possible that he's a man of the Andalusia premier, Susana Díaz. He received huge support in that region and also other regional leaders backed his candidacy. Sánchez claims that his models are Felipe González and Matteo Renzi.    

Definitely OT, but tell me about this Podemos. Are they a bit like Syriza? What effect are they having on the PSOE and the PP?
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: July 15, 2014, 02:16:15 pm
A 36-year-old prime minister would be pretty damn impressive. Would probably be the youngest Head of Government of a democratic country?
The new Estonian prime minister is even younger. The three newest heads of government in the EU are Renzi (Italy, 39yo), Taavi Roivas (Estonia, 34yo) and Stubb (Finland, 46yo).

We'll probably have to wait the autumn to know whether Helle gets the job at the EU though.

She's apperently the prefered candidate of Merkel, Renzi, and Cameron. (selfie-buddies)
It wouldn't surprise me if it isn't made official until the autumn, but it's pretty clear that she will get a new ridiculously high salary to buy all the fashionables she has ever dream of, and Denmark will get a new likable Prime Minister.  

If HTS was after a high paycheck she would not be PM of Denmark. She's in it for the power, as such I have no doubt that she will take the job as President of the European Council, if it's offered to her. But to suggest it's over money is both ignorant and silly. 

Why would Cameron want HTS?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 15, 2014, 09:00:07 am
As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

Wikipedia lists 9 LD-retirements. Who is the tenth?

Mike Hancock, a de facto retirement.

Has he officially been deselected yet?

Meanwhile, Danny Alexander has taken over the role of chief economic spokesman for the election from Vince Cable.

He's sitting as an Indie.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 15, 2014, 06:43:31 am
As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

Wikipedia lists 9 LD-retirements. Who is the tenth?

Mike Hancock, a de facto retirement.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 15, 2014, 06:06:49 am
Michael Gove demoted, the best news to come out of this reshuffle.

Some very happy staff rooms in schools across the country this morning I'd imagine.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 14, 2014, 04:35:52 pm
Esther McVey is one of those supposedly being promoted to cabinet. A bit risky, seeing as she has a marginal seat; but I guess Cameron has a plan.

He's got whole binders full of women. A Tory who isn't a man or from down South, that's a vote winner right?
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 14, 2014, 04:32:08 pm
Big reshuffle underway

Ken Clarke gone.
Hague to Leader of the House and standing down at the election.
Owen Paterson out.
David Jones gone from the Wales Office.
Lansley gone.

Also loads've sub-cabinet frontbenchers moving round.

A pretty noticeable step to the right coming up.

Hague is a surprise.  What's the speculation about who'll be replacing him at the Foreign Office?

Unlike Hague, Ken Clarke is not standing down as an MP.

Liam Fox or Hammond for Foreign Office. I'd say Hammond would be the one, appointing Fox to such a high position just screams weakness.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: July 14, 2014, 04:07:07 pm
Big reshuffle underway

Ken Clarke gone.
Hague to Leader of the House and standing down at the election.
Owen Paterson out.
David Jones gone from the Wales Office.
Lansley gone.

Also loads've sub-cabinet frontbenchers moving round.

A pretty noticeable step to the right coming up.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 14, 2014, 12:45:24 pm
And both coalition-parties will surely do clearly better than in the polls now

I wouldn't bet on it.
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