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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 05:22:59 pm
All these numbers are also assuming that Sturgeon isn't a flop as FM.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2014 on: October 30, 2014, 05:15:29 pm
I got the impression that they think a lot of people don't even know about the by-election

And they'd be right
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 03:54:18 pm
See also: Canada.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 01:08:03 pm
The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

Given that the SNP would not support a Tory led government in almost any circumstances (for fear of being as unpopular as the Lib Dems currently are as well as for general ideological issues) what concessions would they want in return for supporting and sustaining a Labour government?

Well, the SNP were propped up by the Tories at Holywood, soooo...

But if they were kingmakers, I imagine they'd basically get whatever they want.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 12:39:08 pm
The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election - To be announced on December 13 on: October 28, 2014, 02:50:04 pm
Would Murphy have the D.Mili problem of the MSP group generally not liking him all that much and the unions loathing him?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 28, 2014, 08:54:15 am

Plot twist: election 2015 results in both major parties hitting record lows.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election on: October 26, 2014, 05:46:27 pm
I can't see a Westminster MP going down at all well with the public.

The problem for Scottish Labour though is that all their MSPs are at best mediocrities.

Who can stand? MSP's, MP's, MEP's, Cllrs? If an MP was elected Scottish Labour leader that would make matters worse.

You mean like Salmond when he took over the SNP in 2004?

And Anas Sarwar, would make an entirely acceptable leader, yet is still "only" an MP. The "they can't go with an MP, surely" view is entirely circumstantial. And if Gordon Brown steamrolled in as a candidate, I doubt many would raise an eyebrow about him not being an MSP.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 26, 2014, 01:56:38 pm
I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

People like you thought that anyway.

No. I've been a pretty big fan of him since about 2 years ago since he actually decided to start acting like he wants to be PM. To the point where, with hindsight, I wish I'd voted for him, since David turned round and threw his dummy out the pram.

He's got so much potential and it's so frustrating that he's not been able to build a rapport with the electorate.

I just get the feeling that the narrative around him has changed over the last month or so.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 26, 2014, 11:19:28 am
I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.

There's a bit of fear that 2010 wasn't Labour's floor. That it could sink further below what it got. The polls themselves don't show a great deal of CON to LAB switchers. There's an over-reliance on Lib Dem 2010 voters leaking back to Labour where it counts and an over expectation that UKIP won't damage them. What you could find is that in traditionally suburban seats like Bolton West that Labour hold by a gnats wing, the Lib Dem voters who have stayed with them from 1997, could leak disproportionately back to the Conservatives, gifting them the seat from Labour. There is also a problem in Scotland, which while it may be fleeting, currently shows Labour performing as badly (and the SNP performing as well) at Westminster as they are at Holyrood, with voting intentions at 2011 levels. While Labour are maxed out in Scotland, they can't really afford to fall back.

The irony of all this is that, back in 2010, part of the reason Ed's campaign got off the ground was exactly because he was supposed to be good at appealing to former-LD/Green/SNP types. He was meant to be the most capable of bringing those voters 'home'...

... because he, almost certainly, was.  (At least as far as LDs and Greens are concerned.)  The fact that Ed Miliband isn't a brilliant leader doesn't mean that he wasn't the best choice out of those available.  Some people mythologise his brother, but I see very little reason why.

With the benefit of hindsight, I'd agree that Ed was the best on offer.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 26, 2014, 08:37:13 am
I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.

There's a bit of fear that 2010 wasn't Labour's floor. That it could sink further below what it got. The polls themselves don't show a great deal of CON to LAB switchers. There's an over-reliance on Lib Dem 2010 voters leaking back to Labour where it counts and an over expectation that UKIP won't damage them. What you could find is that in traditionally suburban seats like Bolton West that Labour hold by a gnats wing, the Lib Dem voters who have stayed with them from 1997, could leak disproportionately back to the Conservatives, gifting them the seat from Labour. There is also a problem in Scotland, which while it may be fleeting, currently shows Labour performing as badly (and the SNP performing as well) at Westminster as they are at Holyrood, with voting intentions at 2011 levels. While Labour are maxed out in Scotland, they can't really afford to fall back.

The irony of all this is that, back in 2010, part of the reason Ed's campaign got off the ground was exactly because he was supposed to be good at appealing to former-LD/Green/SNP types. He was meant to be the most capable of bringing those voters 'home'...
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 26, 2014, 06:16:44 am
I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election on: October 25, 2014, 06:36:29 pm
The problem for Scottish Labour though is that all their MSPs are at best mediocrities.

That's a massive part of the problem. For too long Labour has let the Holyrood team just look like the 'B Team' while all the ambitious, skilled politicians went to Westminster. This contrasts with the SNP where, obviously, all their skilled politicians sit in the parliament.

I think the referendum campaign has made many Westminster-based Scottish Labourers realise that politics north of the border isn't all that bad...
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Coakley (D) internal: Baker (R) +2 on: October 25, 2014, 07:01:45 am
You know who's worse than Coakley? MA Dems. They nominated again even after knowing she's a train wreck!

This.

Who on Earth thought nominating her would be a good idea?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election on: October 25, 2014, 06:34:31 am
All this talk of 'constant sniping' from 'MPs' and 'influences around Ed Miliband don't help' makes me wonder why people just won't name names.

Douglas Alexander. That's who they're all talking about surely.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Scottish Labour leadership election - To be announced on December 13 on: October 24, 2014, 03:22:49 pm
Johann Lamont standing down.

There was some talk of this during the summer.

Jim Murphy starts as the frontrunner. Anas Sarwar could also do well. Gordon Brown is being mentioned, but I can't see it happening...
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 23, 2014, 09:15:04 am
Again, 'a stereotypical LibDem voter' is very different today to what it was pre-Coalition.

They've lost a lot of their 'stereotypes' to Labour, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid it seems.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 02:24:05 pm
I think there is still a big gap for Ukip there. Lots of Ukip voters genuinely are sick of immigrants and, like their European brothers, want to do something about it. Nick Clegg wasn't going to win those votes.

Chicken or the egg. Are people saying they're sick of immigrants because UKIP's on the rise, or are UKIP on the rise because people are sick of immigrants?

Nick Clegg surged after the debates because he was the 'trendy' option. UKIP is surging now because they're the 'trendy' option. Similarly, the Greens are doing well amongst young people because they're a 'trendy' option.

Labour and the Tories are just seen as out of date and stale. If the Tories were able to get an out-and-out populist like Boris leading them, it'd help them a bit. Same goes with Labour.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 02:04:43 pm
The Cleggasm turned from a blessing into a curse. If there'd been no debates, no Clegg surge, the last four years wouldn't have been so difficult for the Libs.

Interesting alt-historical scenario! Before the debate, I think they were bobbing along below their 2005 score, around 16-22% depending on whom you asked. Given the Conservatives' strength and the fact that most Lib Dem seats were and are won on not-very-big majorities against the Conservatives, they might have ended up on 35-40 seats instead of 57 with the Conservatives strong enough to govern with Unionist support. If they ended up in opposition, they might have indeed bounced back to 60 seats or so. But that's conditional on something they didn't know: that Ed M would be dire and fail to mobilise opposition to the government around Labour. And it doesn't really leave them much better-off than they started anyway, unless they eventually do get into government, and then they betray one side or the other of their support anyway...

I don't think Ed would've won the leadership had the Libs not been in government. The momentum behind his campaign was, in part, a response to the LibDems entering government.

A more interesting alternative scenario is Cameron winning a small majority/going for a minority, and Nick Clegg becoming the Nigel Farage anti-establishment character.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 01:08:45 pm
I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

Well exactly.

That might've worked if the electorate had felt anyway included in the post-election manoeuvrings by the parties, but they didn't. I think the way the Liberal Democrats sort've think they deserve to be in government post-election (even if they do fall from 24% to, say, 8%) is quite offensive to the electorate.

The LibDem result is going to be more of a rejection than 1997 way for the Tories and definitely more than 2010 was for Labour.

My recollection is that the dramatic fall in their support came after the first Osborne budget, when it became obvious to their voters what the leadership had signed up for. (Yellow Submarine, to be fair to him/her, was a "Project FDP" skeptic.)

Well their fall in the polls started on day one, mostly because many saw them as a safe option - Diet Labour. I have fond memories of #DontDoInNick trending on Twitter in the days after the election, before he entered government. I think that's part of their problem they've struggled to address and will probably never be able to.

The Cleggasm turned from a blessing into a curse. If there'd been no debates, no Clegg surge, the last four years wouldn't have been so difficult for the Libs.

For many of the voters who've left them, merely the act of selected David Cameron as Prime Minister was enough for them to leave the party forever. What must voters in seats like Barnsley, Bradford and Redcard have thought of that.

The decline, of course was accelerated with the budget, CSR and then the tuition fee protests/riots.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 12:38:29 pm
Of course the Lib Dems stubbornly defending all things EU just makes their plight worse. Listening to their spokespeople on tv it's as if the Euro crisis never happened and everything in the EU garden is currently all beautiful and rosy.

Their pro-EUness is slightly ironic as their voters (and currently ex-voters) in the West Country tend to be quite Eurosceptic.

Incidentally Iain Dale who predicted 35 Lib Dem seats at the next election in March is now predicting they'll win 28.

I'm currently predicting 25-30, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did worse than that. Going to be some very odd results across the country in May, especially so in LD seats.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 12:18:59 pm
I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

Well exactly.

That might've worked if the electorate had felt anyway included in the post-election manoeuvrings by the parties, but they didn't. I think the way the Liberal Democrats sort've think they deserve to be in government post-election (even if they do fall from 24% to, say, 8%) is quite offensive to the electorate.

The LibDem result is going to be more of a rejection than 1997 way for the Tories and definitely more than 2010 was for Labour.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 11:43:48 am
I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 20, 2014, 10:17:36 am
Ashcroft has the LibDems in 5th.

25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 19, 2014, 12:32:50 pm
And who knows? If Cameron and the Greens get their way, we could see "Lucasmania" after the debates.

If only the Greens were lucky enough to still have Lucas as their leader though. Natalie Bennett is a gift to her opponents.
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