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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Could Speaker be used as a bargaining chip? on: November 09, 2012, 12:15:46 pm
      A deal with more moderate GOPers makes sense.  I can't see how any Dems would be hurt, if it meant that a more workable house came out of it.  Also, there are so few conservative Dems left in the house, there would be little danger of some kind of GOP countermove.
77  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sean Hannity now supports a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants on: November 09, 2012, 12:10:34 pm
    Another question that isn't even discussed so far, is the overall direction of legal immigration, unrelated to the issues of amnesty, DREAM act etc.  Right now, year after year, about 1 million future Democratic leaning voters come to the US legally, rain or shine, bad economy or good economy, year after year. Amnesty issues is just a side issue to this overall issue of massive, unending legal immigration. 
    On this issue the Democratic Party is winning, and it is winning so substantially that even Romney, who was allegedly so far to the right on the issue, didn't have a problem with this amount of massive immigration.  The GOP has got to realize that importing huge amounts of Democratic leaning future voters isn't helpful to them.  The typical immigrant to the US just quite simply isn't a future Republican.  There's a reason the political left is so in favor of mass immigration, something along the lines of "if we don't like the results the electorate is giving us, lets vote for a new electorate", a sort of gerrymandering on an international scale.
    I'd be intrested in seeing an immigration grand bargain, with amnesty coupled with instituting the proposals of the Barbara Jordan commission from the 90's (appointed by Clinton) which called for less legal immigration, and also a modernization of the birthright citizenship idea to bring it more in line with how many other modernized Western Democracies handle it.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2012 ballot measures on: November 09, 2012, 11:54:22 am
       Anyone have any insight on the ethnic breakdown of the vote on California's prop 30, the tax increase vote.  Republicans nationwide have a fantasy that if they can support an amnesty inclusive immigration bill (with "strict enforcement" of course) they can do significantly better with hispanics. I'd argue that they are a Democratic leaning group regardless, and I'd love to know exactly how they voted on this as a case study of my argument.
79  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2 on: November 06, 2012, 01:48:59 am
Duncan is on the ballot just in Ohio, he was a write in only candidate in 2008.  He supports a lot of infrastructure improvements, strong national defense and is pro-life. I'm not sure who he'd be appealing to.  I'm suspicious of his large vote, and that he beat out my man Johnson.
80  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 269 tie. on: November 03, 2012, 05:57:13 pm
I'd give anything for a tie in the EC, with Romney losing the PV, then Romney becoming President with a Dem becoming VP.  That would at the very least trigger some discussion about EC reform or abolition.
81  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Where in the world is Paul Ryan? on: November 03, 2012, 05:52:14 pm
FWIW,  I just got a call inviting me to see Ryan in Reno, Nevada on Monday morning at 9 am, for some kind of victory rally.
Btw, I too would have voted for a Romney Paul ticket, if it meant that Romney would adopt something closer to Paul's foreign policy stance.  I'm voting for Gary Johnson instead, but I live in California.
82  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread on: November 02, 2012, 05:31:17 pm
    Just heard a hilarious claim by Stephanie Cutter, an Obama campaign deputy director on the radio news.  She acknowledged its a close race, but said that in every battleground state Dems are ahead two to one in early voting.  Wonder if she's been smoking the same stuff Dick Morris has been, just the Dem version of it.  I do believe Obama has a lead in battleground early voting at least in some states anyway but not two to one.
83  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: U of Cincinnati poll: Obama 48 Romney 46 on: October 31, 2012, 04:29:54 pm
   I couldn't find a breakdown of early voters in this poll.  I'm always a little suspicious of polls that don't mention that in heavy early voting states.
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Early Predictors on: October 30, 2012, 12:02:33 pm
    I'll be looking at Indiana, just because its polls close first, and see how Romney is doing in the eastern counties that border Ohio.  I remember back in 2006 that the first sign of a Democratic wave was the defeat of Hostetler for congress, and it was clear really soon after the polls closed.
85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: We forgot about Alaska. on: October 28, 2012, 12:30:44 am
Lets not forget that Alaska actually elected a couple of Libertarians to the state legislature in the late 70's/early 80's.  Maybe Johnson's best state.
86  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Rendell: Romney victory in Penn a possibility on: October 27, 2012, 04:34:30 pm
    Imagine what fun we'd be having analyzing Pennsylvania if they had gone to the Maine/Nebraska electoral college allocation by district plan. Also, what would the overall electoral calculus be nationally if that were the case.
87  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread on: October 27, 2012, 04:31:48 pm
    Concerning the white racist electorate of Georgia, I'm sure that if the Dems had an all white ticket the white vote would still go very Republican, though not of course quite as Democrat as the black vote.  White voters in much of the South have taken their cue from their black fellow citizens in how to vote in a bloc.
   
88  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney's comeback was Hispanics on: October 25, 2012, 07:00:17 pm
   King, those numbers are fascinating.  I'd love to see a really detailed breakdown of the hispanic vote, by country of origin, how many generations in this country, marital status, religion etc..
   I heard somewhere that Hispanic protestants are much more Republican than Hispanic Catholics.  I wonder if this is because lots of nominal, but not church attending, Hispanics are Catholic, and Hispanic protestants are more active in their churches and take in a more conservative social ideology from that.  Or, is that a sign of greater assimilation into the US society.
    Also, I'd love to see a vote breakdown by residence.  The Hispanic, mostly Mexican descended kids who grew up in my area, suburban Sacramento, might very well lean Democratic, but many of them take on attributes, cultural patterns, aspirations and ideas similar to their white friends and neighbors.
    I'll be interested to see how the Hispanic vote goes on the statewide propositions this year in California.  Its starting to be prime time for the "coalition of the ascendent" to be churning out some electoral victories out here, so we'll see what happens.
89  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How come Gary Johnson didn't gain further support? on: October 25, 2012, 06:48:34 pm
   I'll be voting for Johnson as I don't live in a swing state, and I like his anti-war, no war on drugs message.  I'm not a radical libertarian, but I like to support anti-war candidates of the right or center, or libertarian side of things to break up the disturbing idea that only leftists can be anti-war.  I wish a libertarian could make it into at least one of the debates, as well as the Greens and Constitution Party candidates.  Then we might have a different political story.
90  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Washington Post: Romney with a historic Reaganesque lead with white voters. on: October 25, 2012, 06:32:24 pm
Sorry, can't resist jumping in here, but in terms of the vanishing white majority in the US, anyone have any guesses as to how this came about?  Hint, white politicians from both parties starting in the 1960's.  The US white  power structure  has been passing color neutral immigration laws, and expansive laws which allow alot of people from all over the world to come here, since 1965.
    To me, this shows a US political establishment that embraces a "coalition of the ascendant", and a non-white future US, and has since 1965.
   
91  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL: Zogby: Obama leads by 3 on: October 18, 2012, 04:24:59 pm
I like Obama's 73-16% lead among Hispanics, a little different from the tiny Romney lead among them that another poll had about a week ago. Small sample size for both I'm sure, but somebody is wrong here.
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread on: October 18, 2012, 11:36:35 am
   The SUSA poll that came out yesterday of Ohio had 18% of total voters saying they had already voted.  This implies a total early vote of about 1 million, and I believe the total early vote so far according to Professor Mcdonald's site is only around half that.  Of course lots of ballots are in the mail, but I wonder if alot of people who said they have already voted actually mean they are going to shortly.
93  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Colorado Hispanic support for GOP on: October 17, 2012, 04:19:06 pm
     Does anyone have any insight why Colorado Hispanics are more supportive of the GOP than elsewhere?  I believe in the 2008 exit poll they were at 38% support for the GOP.
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Things aren't looking good for George McGovern on: October 16, 2012, 03:05:06 pm
Sad to see him go. He had a wholesome vision of a less interventionist America.  I wish there were more Democrats and Republicans who shared his "a Republic, not an Empire" attitude.
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Shouldn't GOP be in favor of Planned Parenthood? on: October 16, 2012, 03:01:47 pm
   Intresting, what got me to thinking about this is what's happening in Denmark apparently.  There, a variety of factors have lead to the birthrate of Moslem immigrants converging with native born Danes.  Some factors are legal, such as immigration tightening (making it harder for male immigrants to get a young bride to join them), but others have to do with greater education and assimiliation of existing immigrants, so that they start to take on attributes of their host country, which includes smaller families than their country of origin.
    Anyway, the end effect of all this is that the more nationalist minded elements of Danish politics are no doubt pleased at this birth rate convergence, but I'm sure its partly being achieved through big government solutions (spending on education for immigrant women, health care etc etc).

Back to the US, I still have a tough time seeing how a significant decline in the birth rate for poor people, with blacks and hispanics heavily represented in that group, not helping the GOP, by slowing down the growth of the so-called "Coalition of the Ascendent".  
96  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Shouldn't GOP be in favor of Planned Parenthood? on: October 16, 2012, 10:49:19 am
    Outside of the abortion issue, it seems to me that the GOP should be strongly in favor of massive government support for Planned Parenthood.  By and large, I believe it impacts poorer people more than middle and upper income communities and the end effect of its efforts is a lower birth rate among Democratic leaning communities.  Also, a lower birth rate among poorer people not only means less future Democrats out there, it means less of a need for safety nest related costs (by safety nest I refer to taxpayer funded social services and expenses for poor children and single (often enough) moms).
    Of course, the GOP might risk alienating its Christian base by such a move, but if there was a non-abortion version of Planned Parenthood out there providing free or reduced contraception services out there that might fit the bill perfectly.  Sure, a Todd Akin type congressman or senator might at first be against this, but if they saw what their state demographics would look like if the poorer communities in their states had a birth rate equal to or maybe even lower than their mostly white middle and upper income base, they might all of a sudden see the demographic political light so to speak.
97  General Politics / International General Discussion / Does being for less immigration mean a party is inherently right-wing? on: October 12, 2012, 05:22:25 pm
   The politics of immigration, both in the US and elsewhere is, for me anyway, endlessly fascinating.  I love how big business and the left are united on this one issue.  What I've noticed is that whenever a candidate or a party proposes a big reduction in existing legal immigration that party or candidate is usually identified as right wing, even if the rest of the politics about that party or candidate isn't inherently right wing.
    I think Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands and his party is a great case.  He was against immigration of Moslems into the Netherlands because he felt they were a threat to the continued existence of a socially liberal society, IIRC. 
    Bill Clinton tapped liberal Democrat Barbara Jordan to chair a study on the overall impact of immigration into the US, back in the 90's, and the commission ended up calling for less immigration, though in that case I don't believe Jordan was labeled right wing.
    If an otherwise liberal Democrat came out for less immigration would they still be a liberal Democrat?
    In Europe it seems like a lot of the less immigration parties, like the Progress and Peoples parties in Norway and Denmark are called right-wing, even though the rest of their platforms don't seem very right wing.  Perhaps it is a matter of style, in that the British Conservatives have called for very significant immigration reductions (not sure that its happened since Cameron has become PM though), without the Tories being labelled an imminent threat to freedom and democracy.
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Mitt Romney "too white" for mainstream America? on: October 12, 2012, 04:55:53 pm
Did the Mormons ever outlaw black members, or just black leadership?
99  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Philly teacher to student: Romney shirt must come off; it's like a KKK shirt. on: October 05, 2012, 06:24:23 pm
   A side issue to this ridiculous teacher is that the teacher is sending out an incorrect political message.  Perhaps if the girl wore a Virgil Goode t-shirt, or something from the League of the South, or "we should have picked our own cotton", the KKK comparison would hit closer to home. (I mention Goode just because his support for much  lower immigration makes him the candidate that the Klan might very well support over the pro-mass immigration Romney).
   
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Should affirmative action benefit immigrants and their descendants on: October 05, 2012, 06:15:24 pm
      As the US becomes more and more hispanic with mass immigration, I'm wondering about the overall policies of affirmative action, and why recent immigrants and their descendants should benefit from them.  Should a recently arrived Black African benefit from them?  How about a wealthy Columbian and his children?  I guess my question is whether affirmative action should basically be an anti-white policy to benefit everyone else, or whether it should be a targeted policy to benefit those people who come from a groups such as American blacks that have a long, verifiable history of discrimination in this country.
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