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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Religion of State Governors on: March 05, 2013, 11:14:36 pm
    Fascinating how the vast majority of elected officials always seem to have some sort of religious ID, when a cross section of America would certainly have a substantial amount of believers, but also a pretty hefty amount of non believers.  This always reminds me of how Northern Ireland is supposed to be two thirds Protestant and one third Catholic when the rest of Europe is supposed to be virtually non religious.  In other words, in the case of politicians in general and regions defined by a religous divide, how often is it the case that people are just taking a religious label as a form of cultural identifier?
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP legislators in MI, PA, & WI are pushing for proportional EC allocation on: March 05, 2013, 11:04:03 pm
     Selective use of new EC vote apportionment systems (only to be used to hurt Democrats that is) reminds me of the electoral system used to elect the legislature in a Canadian province in the 1920s (I think it was Alberta or Manitoba, not sure).  In that case proportional representation was used in urban areas, the district system in rural ones. Imagine going to PR for urban areas in US house elections, but retaining the single member district winner take all for more republican leaning rural and suburban areas.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Electionhin on: March 05, 2013, 10:51:41 pm
Also, doesn't the presidential law now only have one round, no runoff?  This would encourage only one Chavez loyalist candidate I would think.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: March 04, 2013, 01:14:27 pm
I read somewhere that Bersani said if the left won the election the first law to be voted on would be citizenship reform, so that anyone born in Italy, regardless of the citizenship of the parents would become an Italian citizen, known here in the US as birthright citizenship.
   Anyway, has this been discussed at all after the election, as something Bersani is still insisting on, even in a coalition situation?
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: March 04, 2013, 01:11:32 pm
Intresting that Berlusconis group did so much better in FPTP electoral system. This must be because the left would have a ton of wasted votes in Tuscany, Emilia Romanga area I guess.  Unlikely that a FPTP only system would be approved though.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: March 01, 2013, 12:54:47 pm
Is there any type of consensus emerging as to what a new electoral law would look like?
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: February 28, 2013, 11:46:37 am
    Anyone find any polling data of the 2nd choice of voters for Grillo and Monti's parties.  I'm wondering who they would have voted for if Italy had some kind of runoff system with districts like France.  (Though of course in many cases the Five Star candidate would have made such a runoff).  Also, I'm wondering what would have happened if Italian voters were presented with a choice of only a Berlusconi bloc and a Bersani bloc, similar to 2006.  I'm guessing a solid victory for the left in that case.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: February 25, 2013, 05:26:23 pm
Based on whats left, Berlusconi will get closer to victory, but my guess is just miss out on the win.
   After all is said and done I sure hope Italy gets rid of their awful electoral system. I hate to see 71% of the electorate winning 45% of the seats.  Stuff like that keeps me up at night.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: February 25, 2013, 02:00:44 pm
  For the Senate it looks like the city of Turin is almost all in, but not the surronding cities and towns.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: February 25, 2013, 01:58:22 pm
Doesn't the highest placed Camera coalition automatically get at least half the Camera seats? If this is the case, we'd be looking at about 70% of the electorate getting less than half the seats, and a 29-39% electorate getting half the seats. Very reflective of the electorate.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013 official results thread on: February 25, 2013, 12:09:19 pm
I'm wondering about the 5 Star electorate.  Who are these people and if 5 star wasn't on the ballot would they lean to the right or left, or neither?
87  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Anyone else suffering from Election Withdrawal Symptome? on: November 10, 2012, 01:15:07 pm
   Yeah, I can't wait to see how Virginia unfolds next year, and also maybe we'll have some special elections up ahead with some congressional mid session retirements or something.
88  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Republican Hack Jon Husted wants to allocate Ohio EV by congressional district on: November 10, 2012, 12:39:17 pm
    I can see the GOP trying to do this throughout the Big 10 states, from Iowa all the way to Pennsylvania.  These are states where they win lots of congressional seats year in year out but usually lose the presidential vote, yet they often elect governors, sometimes win the state legislatures etc, so they sometimes have the power to put it in place, plus the motivation.  If they were smart they'd do it in Indiana also, just to prove its a regional "reform" with "no partisan agenda".  The referendums against it in Michigan and Ohio would be epic battles, drawing in huge amounts of money and speakers from around the country.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2012 ballot measures on: November 10, 2012, 02:33:01 am
Sbane, thanks for the link.  Don't know how accurate that exit poll is, but assuming it is fairly accurate, it offers some really positive news for fiscal conservatives, and yes it does undercut my argument that hispanics are democratic leaning in these matters.  Glad to see that I may be overstating the case.  People of all ethnicities in California who voted for Obama but against Prop 30 would represent just the type of voters who may be reachable for the GOP.
   Personally I was torn by Prop 30, and almost voted for it, but ended up voting against though my wife voted yes, so we were a split.  And yes, I do have two kids in Cal public education.
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama can kill the GOP with Amnesty on: November 10, 2012, 02:10:01 am
     Remember everybody, amnesty is just the sexy side show to the overall immigration issue.  With or without amnesty about 1 million legal immigrants who when they or their children become citizens will be likely Democratic leaning voters enter this country every year.  Romney wasn't against this, and seemed to suggest that he wanted even more immigrants than that, as long as it was legal. Amnesty is just the emotional ice on the cake. Democrats, you're winning on this and the GOP is barely even fighting you. 
91  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: White People Mourning Mitt Romney on: November 10, 2012, 02:05:02 am
If Obama had lost we could have seen lots of photos from Vermont, New Hampshire, the non urban parts of the Great Lake states where all or virtually all of his supporters were white as well.  In huge chunks of the country he won close to a majority of the white vote.  If Biden were at the top of the ticket and he defeated Romney I think you'd still see lots of depressed republicans as well.
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / what happened with the Asian vote on: November 09, 2012, 10:39:33 pm
   I believe the exit polls had Obama winning huge with the Asian vote, like 70% or more.  This is one demographic that one could imagine the GOP having a fighting chance of winning over.  I believe a greater % of those who are immigrants or their children were from a legal immigration so I wonder how big the amnesty issue would be. 
   GOP even had a Japanese American US Senator from California back in the 1970's SI Hiyakawa (my late stepfather was offered a chance to tutor him in German as Hiyakawa was going on a trip there but it never happened) and of course today there is Jindal and Haley. If Hispanics are voting solidly Democratic it would make sense that the Asian vote would fall somewhere between their vote and the white vote in terms of party preference, and this seems a legitimate target for the GOP in the future.
93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 09, 2012, 10:27:51 pm
     Just looked at census figures on hispanic poverty and income levels.  Their poverty level is about the same as blacks (around 25%), but their household income is halfway between blacks and whites, but maybe thats just because they have bigger households.  White and Asian poverty levels is around 10%.  That 25% level is scary because there must be countless more who are close to it.   This doesn't look to me like a future 40-45% pro GOP voting bloc. 
94  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Your reaction when Obama was projected as the winner? on: November 09, 2012, 10:22:04 pm
     I don't watch much tv on election night, but the first strong indication of an Obama victory for me was when some of those small Indiana counties that Bush won in 04 with about 70% of the vote were going for Romney by only about 65% I was fairly certain it was game over.  I love Indiana and its early poll closing times.  Oh, and another reaction was that I won my 42 dollar bet at Obama to win at odds of about 4 to one, for a nice profit of 10 dollars and fifth cents.
I also had some nostalgic memories of 1996 when GOP kept the house but lost the Presidential election.  Last Tuesday though things didn't quite happen for the Senate like in 96 of course.
95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy? on: November 09, 2012, 04:35:40 pm
     I'm still doubtful that immigration reform will make that much of a difference for getting a higher hispanic GOP vote.  Hispanics aren't high income, low tax supporting business people coming to the US because they see it as some beacon of free enterprise, by and large. Those that are, are probably in the GOP already.  For the GOP to become more like the Dems on a variety of other issues will attract more hispanics but that begs the question, why campaign as the conservative, smaller government party if you are trying to be a democratic lite alternative.
    Some things that may mitigate this are the steep recent decline in the US hispanic birth rate, and the very big decline in the Mexican birth rate.  If these trends continue, and if the Asian vote starts to come closer to the white vote as it may, things may stabilize a bit demographically for the GOP.
96  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: No Republicans, welfare, food stamps and "free stuff" did not re-elect Obama on: November 09, 2012, 04:13:39 pm
   I'd like to see an overall nationwide map of welfare, foodstamp etc receipient %, and see the correlation.  Of course if one is dependent on the taxpayers for getting by in life, there is a strong motivation to vote for that party which will be most likely to continue such policies. Obviously, lots of poor whites vote GOP, and I think the number was 2% of black single moms do as well.
   I'm really fascinated with the overall appeal of the Dems to wealthy areas.  Is it the "social issues", war and peace, the environment, a more globalist outlook on things, a little of all those perhaps?
97  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The poor have much more at stake in politics than wealthier people on: November 09, 2012, 04:01:52 pm
     What I'm referring to is today's current politics, where even if the Democrats win total power, the most that they are talking about would be relatively small tax increases, and they don't talk about nationalizing business, or massive employer mandates, which would impact many wealthy people, nor do they talk about massive capital gains tax rate increases, or going to a 95% estate tax rate, or things of that nature, which would definetly energize upper income people I would think.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: House popular vote? on: November 09, 2012, 01:09:15 pm
     Time for the Dems to get behind proportional representation?  Heck, we could even have a mini form of PR with a national list of seats that would go to compensate parties that didn't get their proportional share, but with a massive threshold so that only the GOP or Dems would have a shot at it. Come on guys, how long do we have to be wedded to the single member district system. There's a whole different world out there people.
99  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / The poor have much more at stake in politics than wealthier people on: November 09, 2012, 12:44:44 pm
   In pondering the continual massive support that liberal leaning candidates rack up in poorer urban communities outside of white appalachia, I think one thing that conservative candidates have to take into account is that for the poor voting for a pro big government candidate is very important, far more important than it is for a middle to upper class voter to support a more conservative candidate.
    I say this because for a poor person, say a struggling single mom who is dependent on taxpayer financed services for foodstamps, school lunches, housing and medical subsidies etc, a cutback of say, 5,000 dollars less in benefits, is far more significant than a tax cut of equal amount to someone making 250,000 thousand dollars.  Also, for many wealthier voters, pure economics doesn't have to enter into things as much.  They can afford to "vote against their self interest" so to speak, but for someone who really needs the taxpayers to come through for them, there is no room for voting for a small government candidate.  When your margin for error is so small, you don't want to engage in electoral experiments. 
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNBC Obama going to Iran on: November 09, 2012, 12:27:41 pm
     I'm hopeful that there is some back channel talks going on between the US and Iran.  Ahmedinajad's term is up soon (next year?) and it would be good policy to wait him out and see who takes over after him, though of course the Iranian President only has so much power.
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