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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: November 19, 2016, 01:38:59 am
   Well, I think the polls in for the first round were way off, but that was a multi-candidate field.  For the second round they were pretty close, IIRC, predicting a very close finish which we got.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: November 18, 2016, 12:53:46 pm
  I love how in the photo accompanying the article about Pinkafeld there are mountains in the background, giving the impression that Burgenland is like the Tyrol or something.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Irish bookmaker pays out Clinton bettors before election on: November 12, 2016, 06:08:32 pm
   Apparently the Irish bookmakers Paddypower were so sure that Clinton would win that they paid out Clinton bettors their money a few weeks before the election. Glad they got burned by this as they've done this before (for Labour bettors before one of Blairs reelections IIRC) so maybe it will teach them to wait before the outcome is known.
   Also, betting odds had Clinton only 3 or 4 to one favorites to win right before the election. Seems a little low. If I had had to bet I would have taken her at that price.
79  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do you prefer 'Czech Republic' or 'Czechia'? on: November 12, 2016, 01:31:31 pm
  I'm guessing my wife and I are one of the few couples in America to have had actual discussions about this issue over the last few years. I've always gone for Czechia, her for Czech Republic.
80  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Backs Away From Major Pledges, wall promise was 'campaign device' on: November 12, 2016, 01:25:50 pm
     I always felt that who paid for the wall was a diversion from the main idea of whether a wall, or similar border security structure should be built.  Backing away from who pays for it is one thing, but backing away from not actually doing something to make the border much less porous, regardless of who pays, would be a serious climb down for Trump. 
   I do believe that as of now Sen Sessions is in charge of immigration transition team issues which indicates some sort of harder line immigration stance.  Also, Kris Kobach, a major immigration restrictionist advocate is apparently part of that team.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: November 12, 2016, 12:01:27 pm
  Have any candidates put election reform (i.e. bringing back proportional representation to National Assembly elections) on the forefront of their campaign?
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Univision: Sources Say Trump Plans to Legalize Some Undocumented Immigrants on: November 12, 2016, 11:47:48 am
   Isn't this article from August?
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WSJ: Trump Changes Position on the ACA on: November 12, 2016, 01:49:15 am
   If he sticks somewhat to his immigration policies, and moves to the center on government spending, role of government, social programs etc he might be moving toward the European Right wing party model.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Second choice of Third party voters on: November 12, 2016, 01:43:37 am
   Anyone aware of any studies or estimates of the second choice of Stein, Johnson, Deep State Mcmuffin and Castle voters?  It would be fascinating to see who these voters chose in Senate and House elections.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Maine makes history on: November 12, 2016, 01:36:13 am
    What I'm really interested in seeing is how the Libertarian and Green parties utilize this law. Finally the whole argument of "don't waste your vote" can be destroyed, curb-stomped, annihilated, put to bed, and the electorate and can fire away and vote their true heart's desire.  This being the US, somehow I wouldn't be surprised if the third parties still end up fumbling this opportunity, but it will be fun to see what happens.
   I wouldn't be surprised if the Libertarians don't really emphasize the new system in their campaigning but I can see the Greens really getting behind it and mobilizing potential supporters to go Green 1, Dem 2 in places like Portland.
86  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How much of the New Deal and Great Society will remain by 2020? on: November 11, 2016, 06:17:54 pm
  This thread will be interesting to revisit in a few years.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's German harvest on: November 11, 2016, 06:13:48 pm
  The huge Russian spread for Clinton probably due to the big amount of Jews in that group.  Would like to see difference between German ancestry by Protestant vs Catholic.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point in the day do you think Hillary's team knew things were rough? on: November 11, 2016, 06:09:36 pm
  When the Broward early and mail vote count dump hit Florida and her lead wasn't that great, with big amounts of the rest of the state still to come in. I remember seeing one talking head say "we still have lots of Broward still to come" and I remember thinking this guy needs to be on Atlas forum more and he'd know that there wasn't that much left.  Perhaps then the Clinton team started to worry.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Black and Hispanic vote on: November 11, 2016, 06:03:51 pm
  Would like to see Hialeah Florida results from 2012 and 2016. On the MiamiDade election site I haven't found the breakdown by city, not sure if they do that.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Black and Hispanic vote on: November 11, 2016, 03:32:03 pm
  In terms of raw data from real actual cities, I think Philly will have its ward by ward vote breakdown up next week.  It will be interesting to see how Trump did vs Romney in places like Ward 10 where Obama got 99% of the vote.
  Cleveland is already up, and Trump got small little chunks of the vote, like 10 to 20 votes in many ( I'm guessing about this) all black precincts, the same precincts where Romney got just two or three votes.  Philly will be easier to look at because they break it down by ward, Cleveland by precinct.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Maine makes history on: November 10, 2016, 06:09:18 pm
   The voters in Maine have narrowly passed an instant runoff, preferential voting system similar to Australia, in which voters rank their preferences of candidates and then if no candidate has a majority of first preferences, the lowest ranking candidate is excluded and the second choice of their voters is added to the count etc, until a majority is reached. It will apply for US Senate, US House, state legislature and Governor elections.  This will be the first time it will be used in a partisan context, AFAIK, as right now its usually used just in non-partisan city elections.
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A new promising immigration place for depressed US citizens! on: November 10, 2016, 11:54:34 am
  Ironically enough Hungary has a straight-forward immigration law currently in which you get a long stay visa if you invest in something like 300k dollars worth of Hungarian bonds, and then get about 250k dollars back at the end of five years, or something like that, so basically you are paying a bunch of money to live there. Portugal has a one million euro price for permanent residency there.  These could be good options for the 46% of the plus 250k dollars a year income people who voted Clinton.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 06:53:10 pm
   We need to stop ignoring the big news, Mcmuffin is ahead of Stein in Kentucky.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 06:24:27 pm
  Ok, I'm going out on a limb and saying that all those who were predicting a Clinton landslide in early October were wrong.
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Who would Margaret Thatcher support? on: November 08, 2016, 12:27:07 pm
   On taxes, immigration, the idea of a nation state vs a bigger entity, and such matters, I would think Thatcher would have been on Trumps side. If British political realities were such that it would have been viable to call for elimination and or drastic reform of the NHS wouldn't Thatcher have been for that, just as Trump and most GOP officials are for elimination and or drastic change of Obamacare?
   In terms of fitness for office, preparation, gravitas, etc. I'd think she'd prefer Clinton.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 12:21:45 pm
  Florida county election websites are the greatest.  Breakdown of voting during the day, organized data by early voting, mail, by party, by precinct, by race etc. 
    Intresting that in Broward only 80k votes today, with a 48-31k Dem lead, but this is because so many votes are already in the bank, with a big Dem lead of course.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 11:23:35 am
    One thing to remember about lines, turnout etc, is that the ballots are vastly different state to state. In California this year we have something like 17 ballot propositions on the ballot, and in my area elections for city council, school boards, plus legislators of course.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Clinton victory margin in Philly and Wayne County MI on: November 07, 2016, 06:52:15 pm
 In 2012 Obama won Philly 557k to 91k over Romney and Wayne County Michigan 595k to 213k over Romney.  Wondering what Clinton camp is hoping to get there.  Probably happy with a somewhat smaller margin, like +375 k out of Philly and + 300k out of Wayne?
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: November 03, 2016, 03:24:25 pm
   Tender, when will postal ballots be sent out, and more importantly will they have the right glue this time?
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-SurveyUSA: Trump +7 on: November 02, 2016, 12:51:30 am
  SUSA crosstabs often are interesting and not what we'd expect.
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