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July 25, 2016, 12:52:37 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio and Lindsey Graham recant support for Trump, call other GOP to do the same on: June 07, 2016, 05:47:17 pm
  Trump seems to me to be the anti-Graham in many respects.  I'd love to see what a Graham endorsement would have looked like if it ever had a chance to happen.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: June 07, 2016, 05:44:33 pm
   The Ellmers endorsement by Trump is really interesting as she was almost defeated in the 2014 primary by an underfunded candidate (La Roche I think is his name) who specifically ran against her due to her potential support for some type of Gang of eight immigration reform.  Now the supposedly right-wing on immigration Trump backs her.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: June 07, 2016, 05:39:25 pm
  So, is Tender and the FPO in the same boat here, both rooting for early elections?
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 05, 2016, 10:10:39 am
   Well, California in a way has many attributes of the US as a whole, with people from all over the US having settled there, plus people from around the world.  Our initiative system works ok, but best I think when there aren't that many on the ballot and they are clear in their meanings and implications.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: June 01, 2016, 10:57:08 am
Yeah, Antififa activists are against the fascist international football association, with its eurocentrism, its support of giant public works (huge stadiums) and other assorted fascist transgressions.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: May 29, 2016, 10:16:18 am
  Which side would benefit most from a lower turnout?  My guess would be Leave as it might have the most committed supporters who are going to vote no matter what.  Also, does London normally have lower turnout than the rest of the UK? As its a Remain stronghold that might have implications in a close vote.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: PPIC: Harris, Sanchez going to runoff on: May 28, 2016, 10:55:45 am
  One reason California has never had an Hispanic senator is because until the last few decades they were a small percentage of the electorate, and an even smaller share of influential people who would be the types to become senators.  Add in the fact that we have the Feinstein/Boxer monopoly for 25 years and it totally makes sense, as they have held the seats during the emergence of the Hispanic plurality in California.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: GOP will become "workers' party" on: May 26, 2016, 04:35:16 pm
  In Austria last Sunday about 86% of blue collar workers voted for the "right wing" candidate Hofer against the "left-wing" candidate Van Der Bellen.  In some European countries the perceived more nationalist, pro-low or no immigration parties are becoming the manual workers party.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 26, 2016, 01:10:37 am
Right, also Tender the number of non-migration background Austrian workers backing Hofer must have been higher, as workers with a migration background, whatever number that is, would likely not have backed Hofer as highly.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 26, 2016, 12:57:05 am
    Is this the first nationwide election in Europe where the clearly identified "right-wing" candidate won such a titantic majority among blue collar workers, over a clearly identified "left-wing" candidate. I believe it was 86-14.  The FPO seems to be developing a strong base among the manual working class, reshaping the old historical idea that the working class=left-wing ideology.  Not the left-wing of the 21st century apparently in Austria at any rate.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 25, 2016, 04:23:35 pm
   Did Hofer ever say he wouldn't swear in a Red Green coalition if they had a parliamentary majority?
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 25, 2016, 04:17:49 pm
   In looking over the Vienna results is there anything special about the Neubau, Mariahelfer and Josephstadt districts that make them such a VDB stronghold?  He won them about 80% with a big voter turnout.  They alone accounted for a 25,000 vote victory margin, accounting for most of his overall Austria victory margin.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sacrificial lambs that ended up winning the election on: May 24, 2016, 04:19:24 pm
   How about FDR for governor of New York in 1928.  IIRC Al Smith wanted him to run to bolster the Dem ticket.  FDR was still coming to grips with polio and really wasn't ready to run for public office yet, especially as 1928 was looking like a strong GOP year, but he ran anyway and narrowly won.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 24, 2016, 03:18:06 pm
     That is a nice speech.  I like how he calls his victory a tie, acknowledging that basically half the country voted for Hofer.  So often politicians forget that while they've been elected, often giant percentages of people voted for someone else.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 24, 2016, 11:07:20 am
    Did VDB discuss his refugee heritage much in the campaign?  I could see how that would have had some poignancy since the current migrant/refugee situation was a big issue in the campaign?
Also, has he ever said whether his family, or at least his father, felt any danger in the immediate aftermath of the war that they would be turned over to the Soviets as part of Operation Keelhaul?
Legally they wouldn't have been in danger of being so, as his father wasn't a Soviet citizen by 1939, but in the confusion and uncertainty of those months, there must have been some uncertainty I would think. 
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 24, 2016, 12:58:00 am
  Just read  about the background of VDB and his family history in an article in Der Standard.  His Estonian citizen parents (father of Dutch background I think?) were able to flee Estonia before the Soviets got them in 1940, to the safety (ironic isn't that) of German ruled Austria, and then fled the Red Army again in 45 to Voralberg.  His biography would actually be a nice one for someone on the right of the political spectrum, refugees from Stalin, prominent family in Estonia etc.  I must say I like him more now after reading about this background.
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14 on: May 23, 2016, 05:05:36 pm
   Yeah, the Survey USA breakdown by race always seems to yield really interesting results, different from convention wisdom but their overall numbers are usually in the general ballpark of most other polls.  So, are they unto something, or do their internal errors just cancel each other out?
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 03:12:40 pm
  I wonder if the relatively large Jewish community in Hungary supports Orban's efforts of not taking any of the migrants, or how the smaller Jewish communities of other eastern European countries feel about their governments being in favor of little or no migrant migration to their countries.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 02:49:08 pm
  If Hofer had won and then used his office to force new elections for the parliament, I wonder if that would have back fired, as it might have created a narrative of "undemocratic" President Hofer trying to subvert the parliament, no Austrian president has ever done this, fascism is near at hand etc etc
Now, the next parliamentary elections if they take place as scheduled would avoid this dynamic, though perhaps by 2018 the FPO might not be as strong as it is now, so that would be the negative for the FPO in this scenario.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 11:04:27 am
  It would be awesome if VDB would push his support for direct democracy (which both he and Hofer shared apparently) as president and Austria could move closer to the Swiss system.  Then, people could directly vote on key issues and take some of the personal animosities out of the political system. 
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 09:35:43 am
   This might not be too bad for the FPO, as they can stay fully in opposition until the NR vote, and I think the recent asylum law changes was about as much as they could pressure the current parliament to put through, with or without Hofer as president.  The big drama will be if they do win a big victory in the parliamentary election and VDB refuses to swear in a FPO chancellor (though IIRC he did say he wouldn't rule out Strache as vice-chancellor in the last debate).
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 04:16:03 pm
   Do any regions/towns stand out for an unusual performance by the candidates?
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 02:24:10 pm
    Looks like the ATF projection assumes 700k valid ballots still to be counted, with VDB winning just under 60% of them.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 01:58:30 pm
   The instructions on the government website say the postal ballots can be submitted to a precinct on election day, so that would be that 200k figure mentioned, but how do we know they have been counted? I would think they would be kept separate and added to the ballots that came by mail. Just speculating, but I think that's what happens in California.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 01:31:07 pm
    Here's a tidy way to look at tomorrow.  VDB will come close to wiping out Hofer's current lead with the postal ballots from Vienna and Voralberg.  Can Hofer hold his own with the rest, 190k of which is from Styria and Carinthia?
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