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August 31, 2015, 08:53:26 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 11:42:41 am
More funny outcomes, McConell with a better victory margin than Booker.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What happened to the Polling? on: November 05, 2014, 11:37:10 am
I think the Roberts Orman polling was so far off in part because support for Indys/3rd party candidate often fades on election day, and maybe Orman lost out because he didn't have any official party mechanism out there helping to turnout his voters.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 11:16:38 pm
When the dust settles it will be fun to do a full analysis of polling in this election.  
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 10:38:02 pm
What counties will give Hagan her win?
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 10:33:44 pm
Shaheen ahead by 600 votes.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 10:14:10 pm
Alot of Fulton and Dekalb counties are in, I don't think we get a runoff.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 09:36:04 pm
If the other half of Fairfax county gives Warner a similar margin, this is really close.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 09:18:03 pm
Richmond city and Henrico county mostly in, Gillespie lead plunging, will it hold?
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 08:51:56 pm
Roberts doing a little better than Brownback, a good sign for him.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 08:48:53 pm
Fairfax only 37% in, so hope for Warner.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 08:38:26 pm
Richmond city is now half in, Gillespie still keeping his margin, hmmm.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 08:32:30 pm
With Virginia, hardly anything from Richmond or Fairfax is in, this should demolish Gillespie lead.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 08:01:18 pm
Wonder if something was up with the GOP candidate in In 7, and most GOP voters migrated to Chris Mayo, or if this is a misprint.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Landrieu: Obama and I struggling because South is racist/sexist on: October 31, 2014, 11:33:18 am
Clearly Pryor's white maleness is making all the difference for him in neighboring Arkansas.
90  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-SUSA: Gardner +2 on: October 30, 2014, 03:52:09 pm
57% say they've already voted, and that number sounds about right based on the ballot count that we're getting.  Of those 57%, Gardner leads 48-45.  The SUSA sample size of this "already voted" contingent is now taking on statistical relevance. I'd say a 3% lead for Gardner of those already voted matches somewhat with the GOP lead of 9% over Dems in returned ballots.
91  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 30, 2014, 12:01:44 pm
If it wasn't for the early vote numbers I'd feel better about this if I was rooting for Udall.  If in fact its a real close race I would think that the Dems would be closing the gap in the daily mail in ballots but they haven't so far very much, but of course indy's could be breaking to Udall in big amounts.
  The PPP poll only lists Udall and Gardner, not Shogun, and clearly he's getting votes as well.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict Sean Haugh's percentage on: October 28, 2014, 10:30:06 pm
As a fellow pizza delivery driver, I wish him good luck, and went for over 3%.
93  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +4 on: October 24, 2014, 11:10:12 am
Among the already voted, Gardner leads 49-37.  Poll doesn't say how many that was.
94  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-AJC: Perdue +2 on: October 24, 2014, 11:02:27 am
I like the part where about 90 % say they will certainly or probably still vote in the runoff in January. I'm guessing voter turnout will be alot less then.  In 2008 it went from 3.75 million to about 2.1 million, but of course that time there was a presidential election in the first round.
95  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead on: October 22, 2014, 11:19:26 am
In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.
96  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis: Tillis (R) up 5. on: October 20, 2014, 01:16:57 pm
I liked the other parts of the poll, like Rand Pauls 16 point lead over Warren, in a hypothetical 2016 Presidential matchup.
97  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Latino Decisions/NCLRAF: Udall wallops Gardner among Latinos on: October 20, 2014, 01:13:53 pm
Clearly Gardners moving to the center on the immigration issue is having a huge impact. 
98  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: I'm surprised nobody started a topic on the Philly Hate Crime on: October 20, 2014, 01:05:36 pm
Do we know the ethnicity of the attackers, and could that perhaps have anything to do with the lack of coverage?
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The "I voted" thread on: October 15, 2014, 04:03:54 pm
AFAIK, in California absentee ballots are counted already, and that used to mean that GOP candidates would take a big lead at first, and then see their lead shrink as the election day votes were counted, but thats changed as a less GOP leaning electorate now votes absentee in Cal.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NE-GOV: LG Heidemann resigns from office, ticket on: October 03, 2014, 07:17:23 pm
My mom just told me that the Dem candidate Chuck Hassebrock is a 3rd cousin of ours, so if he wins we've got an in at the governors mansion in Lincoln. Go Chuck.
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