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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Austria parliament election districts of 1911 on: April 21, 2014, 06:23:11 pm
    I'm reading The Sleepwalkers about the origins of World War One, and am becoming fascinated with the Austro-Hungarian Empire.  Has anyone found any link to maps of the Cisleithian (the area ruled by Vienna at the time) election districts used in the 1911 elections.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: April 20, 2014, 03:03:40 pm
   Sorry if this has been brought up before, but has there been much discussion about what Scottish independence would mean for the Labor Party in Westminster, if they lost a huge base of support and seats due to losing Scotland?
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: South Carolina 2014 Congressional Races on: April 16, 2014, 11:54:40 am
The 1st quarter fundraising totals are out and Graham's challengers raised about 1.3 million but that includes 300k in personal loans taken out by Cash and Conner. Graham raised only about 900 k in the quarter but he has about 7 million in cash ready to go and his opponents only about a million. Still, interesting that combined his no-name opposition did manage to outraise him for a quarter, but maybe Graham wasn't really trying, since he already has so much more than they do in the bank.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can anyone see Trey Gowdy (R-SC) as House speaker? on: April 10, 2014, 03:41:37 pm
  In such a scenario could we perhaps see something I've always been intrigued by, a bi-partisan Speaker vote, in which Dems vote as a block with the moderates of the GOP to elect a more moderate GOP member as speaker?  This is the same coalition which has passed the debt ceiling increase, and would pass the Immigration increase/amnesty proposal if it could get to a vote in the house.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Do amount of facebook "likes" signify anything in a congressional/senate primary on: April 10, 2014, 11:52:59 am
      Has anyone done a recent study of the significance or lack thereof of the total amount of likes a candidates facebook page gets? I'm wondering if it could be an early warning sign of a campaign about to take off, or a failure to do so.  I'm especially thinking about primaries, where the candidates may be similar on the issues, but the intensity of their supporters is very important, so a "like" might be an indication of such support.
81  General Politics / Economics / Re: US budget deficit down more than 31% in first 6 months of FY2014 on: April 09, 2014, 05:33:27 pm
I feel like its 1996 all over again, when ballooning deficits started plunging.  Funny how a GOP congress (of course in the 90's we had a GOP house and senate) combined with a Dem president leads to positive deficit outcomes.
82  General Politics / Economics / If women are being underpaid, are men being overpayed? on: April 09, 2014, 05:30:09 pm
    In all the discussions about pay equity and women being underpaid, I'd like to know more about the mechanics of adjusting such inequity.  If women are being underpaid compared to men at a rate of say, 10%, what has happened to that money?  The implication, it seems to me is that men are being overpayed, and discussions about comparable worth should bring this up.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: South Carolina 2014 Congressional Races on: April 09, 2014, 05:21:55 pm
Lee Bright, the State Senator running against Graham announced the endorsement of Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie today.  Not sure how meaningful that really is, but would think it would help establish Bright's credibility a little.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: South Carolina 2014 Congressional Races on: April 08, 2014, 03:08:41 pm
The Det Bowers campaign announced fundraising of 417k in the last quarter, which is actually pretty impressive in comparison with his poll standings and overall visibility I would think.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hungary Parliamentary Election - April 6, 2014 on: April 07, 2014, 11:46:45 am
In terms of the gerrymander issue of the district seats it doesn't look too horrible.  If Fidesz was really trying hard, couldnt they have done a better job of cramming the left wing vote into a few less Budapest districts? As it was Unity won several seats by narrow margins in Budapest, instead of winning a few less by huge margins.  Outside of Budapest it doesn't look like they came very close to winning many more districts, so I'm wondering if they lost that many more to gerrymandering or just because thats usually what happens to a party that is trailing by about 20 points nationwide to the winner.
86  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Looking for total amount of gay marriages by state on: March 01, 2014, 01:15:18 pm
    In all the discussion of gay marriage I haven't found any real numbers showing just how many such marriages are taking place in those states where its legal.  Is there a site that monitors the numbers?  It would be interesting to see if its more common in states like New York where it was enacted via traditional means (by the legislature) than in states where its legal via a court decision and still has a more shaky existence.   Also would like to see if there has been an initial burst of marriages due to pent up demand, and then a big decrease due to lack of demand from a relatively small demographic.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: South Carolina 2014 Congressional Races on: February 20, 2014, 01:00:20 pm
I'm wondering what happens is Graham is forced into the runoff. Would the burst of publicity and mere fact of making it into the runoff give whoever makes it in with him a certain legitimacy?
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Votes and elections in Switzerland on: February 09, 2014, 04:40:54 pm
   I'm wondering exactly what changes will actually come from the immigration initiative passing. What was current law, and how will things be now?
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Elections 1918-1945 on: January 28, 2014, 01:40:55 am
   I've often wondered what an election held in the late 30's, but before WW 2 started would have looked like, say some time between the Munich conference and the start of the war.  Based on all the by-elections held, I'd guess a narrower Tory victory with serious losses but comfortable enough margin to retain power. 
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Weimar Republic without proportional representation on: January 06, 2014, 01:34:58 am
    I'm reading Chancellor Franz von Papen's memoirs, and in them he mentions that he wanted to abolish Weimar's PR election system for the Reichstag and move to a district system (unclear if he wanted FPP or runoffs like in the Kaiser's time).  This was in 1932 by which time the Nazis were of course Germany's biggest party, but what if Weimar always had a district system?  Would that have helped it to survive?  I think the Weimar Republic had severe problems in its fight to survive, so I doubt it, but it probably would have helped stabilize things somewhat.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread on: November 05, 2013, 08:32:41 pm
Any info on the Sarvi voters in terms of who their second choice would have been if there had been a runoff?  Looks like another race where GOP would benefit from either Austrailian/Irish style IRV voting or a French style runoff system.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 25, 2013, 07:32:13 pm
Speaking of lower threshold hurdles for the EP, are there any proposals to lower the threshold hurdles in Landtag or even Bundestag elections that mainstream parties and politicians are talking about?
93  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Differences between white rich Dems and white rich GOP on: October 25, 2013, 07:26:00 pm
    Has anyone done an analysis of the white rich vote?  I'm wondering if there is a trend such as the white rich GOP voter is more likely to be a business owner and white rich Dem more likely to do something related to the government (lawyer, medical researcher etc.) Its impressive that Obama won in the mid to low 40's in the overall +100 k income by family vote.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 04:01:25 pm
Point taken about the CDU moving towards the SPD in alot of policies.  One question I have is had the SPD been in government the last four years, say in a red-green coalition, what would they have done differently than the outgoing coalition?
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 12:12:08 pm
But has the Animal Welfare party staked out other positions that would qualify it as right leaning? I know the Ecological Democrats have, but not sure about the Animal Welfarites.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 11:51:21 am
Concerning the ideological disproportionality of the results, of course the FDP and the NDP would never work together, that I realize.  I was including them together as part of the non-leftist electoral majority that won something like 52.5 to 53% of the vote.  Is is plausible to include the Ecological Democratic Party on the right?  Seems like the are to the right on some issues.
    By my count I get about 45.3 % of the vote to leftist parties (SPD, Linke, Greens, Pirates, Animal Welfare, Marxist Leninists, Violets), and the aforementioned roughly 52.5 to 53% to non-leftist groups, assuming we can count Ecological Democrats, Bavarian Party, Alliance for Germany together with the bigger parties.  The 5% threshold law has worked its random and arbitrary electoral magic yet again.
    If voters could have a second choice to be used if their party didn't cross the threshold, how would Afd, Pirate and FDP voters have responded?  
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 12:35:35 am
So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 20, 2013, 04:17:17 pm
   I'm interested in just what percentage of votes go to parties that don't cross the 5% threshold.  If FDP and AFD both narrowly fail that will be alot.  Also, if just one of them fails it means that of say 10% of the vote going to parties under 5%, a strong majority will be going to parties of the right and/or center.  So we could see a situation where a very narrow majority  of the vote goes to parties from the FDP rightwards, but such parties would gain only about maybe 48% of the seats, if only one of the FDP or AfD makes it into the Bundestag.
    I'm calculating that alot of the vote for sonstiges (others) is for right leaning parties, and am counting the Pirates as on the left.
99  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: August 30, 2013, 12:02:35 pm
Is there any clear pattern among the Tory no votes?  Would most of them be considered on the right wing? Eurosceptic? Are many from marginal seats?
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29 on: July 16, 2013, 11:24:13 am
    TenderBranson, great photos of the signature gathering process.  Brings back memories of my visits to Austria when I was younger, Vienna, Worthersee, Salzkammergut, Innsbruck, Salzburg, Mondsee. Sometimes I wish I was still a student with free summers to travel .
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