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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Weimar Republic without proportional representation on: January 06, 2014, 01:34:58 am
    I'm reading Chancellor Franz von Papen's memoirs, and in them he mentions that he wanted to abolish Weimar's PR election system for the Reichstag and move to a district system (unclear if he wanted FPP or runoffs like in the Kaiser's time).  This was in 1932 by which time the Nazis were of course Germany's biggest party, but what if Weimar always had a district system?  Would that have helped it to survive?  I think the Weimar Republic had severe problems in its fight to survive, so I doubt it, but it probably would have helped stabilize things somewhat.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread on: November 05, 2013, 08:32:41 pm
Any info on the Sarvi voters in terms of who their second choice would have been if there had been a runoff?  Looks like another race where GOP would benefit from either Austrailian/Irish style IRV voting or a French style runoff system.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 25, 2013, 07:32:13 pm
Speaking of lower threshold hurdles for the EP, are there any proposals to lower the threshold hurdles in Landtag or even Bundestag elections that mainstream parties and politicians are talking about?
79  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Differences between white rich Dems and white rich GOP on: October 25, 2013, 07:26:00 pm
    Has anyone done an analysis of the white rich vote?  I'm wondering if there is a trend such as the white rich GOP voter is more likely to be a business owner and white rich Dem more likely to do something related to the government (lawyer, medical researcher etc.) Its impressive that Obama won in the mid to low 40's in the overall +100 k income by family vote.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 04:01:25 pm
Point taken about the CDU moving towards the SPD in alot of policies.  One question I have is had the SPD been in government the last four years, say in a red-green coalition, what would they have done differently than the outgoing coalition?
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 12:12:08 pm
But has the Animal Welfare party staked out other positions that would qualify it as right leaning? I know the Ecological Democrats have, but not sure about the Animal Welfarites.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 11:51:21 am
Concerning the ideological disproportionality of the results, of course the FDP and the NDP would never work together, that I realize.  I was including them together as part of the non-leftist electoral majority that won something like 52.5 to 53% of the vote.  Is is plausible to include the Ecological Democratic Party on the right?  Seems like the are to the right on some issues.
    By my count I get about 45.3 % of the vote to leftist parties (SPD, Linke, Greens, Pirates, Animal Welfare, Marxist Leninists, Violets), and the aforementioned roughly 52.5 to 53% to non-leftist groups, assuming we can count Ecological Democrats, Bavarian Party, Alliance for Germany together with the bigger parties.  The 5% threshold law has worked its random and arbitrary electoral magic yet again.
    If voters could have a second choice to be used if their party didn't cross the threshold, how would Afd, Pirate and FDP voters have responded?  
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 23, 2013, 12:35:35 am
So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Elections in Germany on: September 20, 2013, 04:17:17 pm
   I'm interested in just what percentage of votes go to parties that don't cross the 5% threshold.  If FDP and AFD both narrowly fail that will be alot.  Also, if just one of them fails it means that of say 10% of the vote going to parties under 5%, a strong majority will be going to parties of the right and/or center.  So we could see a situation where a very narrow majority  of the vote goes to parties from the FDP rightwards, but such parties would gain only about maybe 48% of the seats, if only one of the FDP or AfD makes it into the Bundestag.
    I'm calculating that alot of the vote for sonstiges (others) is for right leaning parties, and am counting the Pirates as on the left.
85  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: August 30, 2013, 12:02:35 pm
Is there any clear pattern among the Tory no votes?  Would most of them be considered on the right wing? Eurosceptic? Are many from marginal seats?
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29 on: July 16, 2013, 11:24:13 am
    TenderBranson, great photos of the signature gathering process.  Brings back memories of my visits to Austria when I was younger, Vienna, Worthersee, Salzkammergut, Innsbruck, Salzburg, Mondsee. Sometimes I wish I was still a student with free summers to travel .
87  General Politics / Economics / Re: US had huge budget surplus in June, compared with deficit a year ago on: July 12, 2013, 11:19:04 pm
   Does this mean I should stop stocking up on weapons, bullets, frozen meal, seeds and other survival gear?  I've got to stop reading so many gloom and doom, sky is falling web sites.  All kidding aside, I like it when a Democratic President meets a GOP house.
88  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Only 23 % in US support an immigration surge on: July 12, 2013, 09:24:13 pm
   I believe the Dream Act, or the GOP version that might be coming out known as the Kids Act, might be trying to do this, a path to citizenship without new higher levels of overall legal immigration.
89  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Can anything be done to turn this country back to the left? on: July 12, 2013, 09:22:04 pm
   Demographically  there is much that those on the left can look to for some hope in the future.  The gradual shrinking of the most reliable electoral base of the GOP, the white middle and upper classes as an overall % of the electorate continues on and on.   If the US was politically and demograpically one giant California surely, one would think, that would have to be helpful for many aspects of the left's political agenda.  Couldn't hurt anyway.
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Only 23 % in US support an immigration surge on: July 12, 2013, 09:15:37 pm
I believe the CBO estimate, which I don't think the Senate supporters have said anything against, envisions somewhere around a doubling of current levels of legal immigration.  Of course, if the world economy keeps making gains and the impact of falling international birth rates continues, one can make the case that such a foreseen immigration surge won't take place on the expected scale. 
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Only 23 % in US support an immigration surge on: July 12, 2013, 11:57:43 am
   I finally found one item for the GOP to hold onto in the current immigration debate.  Gallup's annual survey on immigration found only 23% agree that the US needs more annual immigration, about 40% say it should stay the same, and about 35% say it should be less.  I wonder how many Americans realize the Senate bill will roughly double legal immigration. Of course, how many Americans really know how many come into the country legally right now?
   This points to something the GOP might want to be looking at, some sort of amnesty program without any changes to legal immigration levels, plus changes within the legal system going for more high skilled immigration, but without an immigration surge as envisioned by the Senate bill.
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Speaker Boehner Invokes Majority-of-the-Majority Rule on Immigration Reform on: June 22, 2013, 11:30:58 pm
    Of course we could also go to proportional representation to avoid having the popular vote winner not get the most seats.  But PR would open up a whole pandora's box of unexpected political consequences that both parties would rather not see. 
93  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / is doubling of legal immigration a good idea? on: June 21, 2013, 03:44:26 pm
  In all the talk about immigration reform, both opponents and supporters of the senate bill are mostly talking about the enforcement/amnesty question.  However, it seems to me that a longer term more significant issue is the overall increase in annual legal immigration that the Gang of 8 bill calls for. It would, according to the CBO, roughly double legal immigration from 1 to 2 million. It does this primarily through the introduction of new work related visas, and increasing current ones. 
   I would like to see a debate about this issue.  Do we really need to double our current amount of legal immigration at a time of huge unemployment (when we factor in discouraged and involuntary part time employees)?  Senator Sanders of Vermont has mentioned his concern over this part of the bill, and I'd like to see more pro-amnesty, anti-legal immigration expansion political voices emerge out of all the discussion out there.  Seems to me there might be lots of people out there who might in fact be in favor of some type of amnesty, but also in favor of keeping current immigration levels unchanged, outside of the amnesty factor.   
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Speaker Boehner Invokes Majority-of-the-Majority Rule on Immigration Reform on: June 21, 2013, 02:32:39 pm
Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering when was the last time, a pro-amnesty, pro doubling of legal immigration standpoint was a big political winner in a GOP leaning state, or congressional district. (I ask this in terms of the future political impact shorterm if the house stops the current immigration reform plans).
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why do some conservative groups hate California but support immigration reform on: May 13, 2013, 11:51:38 am
   Certainly a generalization, but the striking  coincidence between its demographic changes and  the political demise of the GOP in California could certainly give these groups some electoral food for thought.
    Perhaps they are looking to Texas as a counterexample, and indeed it will be intriguing to look at future developments in Texas, and see whether that provides a conservative counter example of a state growing less white demographically but still not going too far to the liberal Democratic side politically.
96  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Why do some conservative groups hate California but support immigration reform on: May 13, 2013, 11:36:54 am
   Some groups like the Cato institute and Americans for Tax Reform are lining up behind the gang of eight immigration reform bill.  This bill, whatever its merits or demerits, will lead to more legal immigration (how much is open to debate of course), plus its amnesty provisions.  It will likely lead to the US looking more like California.  The question is, if California is such a high tax, socialist hell hole, which groups like ATR and the Cato insititute would argue, why would they support a measure which would likely make the US more like California demographically?
97  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Are IQ tests relevant and or meaningful? on: May 10, 2013, 06:34:53 pm
    In all the uproar about Jason Richwine and his IQ study pointing to different results of different ethnic groups, and immigration, I've been wondering about IQ tests in general.  Has anyone on the board taken one? Was it through school?  What were the questions like?  Are they in fact meaningful tools to measure intelligence?  The funny thing about the controversy with Richwine is that he points to Jews and East Asians performing best on them, so the implication in terms of immigration would actually be that they would be prefered immigrants.  In that respect his work is hardly "pro-white" in that he points out that non-jewish whites in the US are third on the ethnic totem pole IQ performance chart
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1936 GOP nomination battle on: April 07, 2013, 12:27:39 am
   I wonder how Borah would have fared against FDR.  I think its safe to assume an FDR victory, but Borah's populist progressive strain of politics might have won him more votes in the west than Landon won.
99  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What % of US immigration is of high skilled people? on: April 06, 2013, 11:28:32 am
   Thanks for posting that chart head beagle.  It looks like the type of immigration which is most helpful to the US in terms of the economy, unemployment etc, the high skilled, and investors, is pretty low, and the family reunification part is really big.  Obviously some of that family reunification would be related to those very same investors and high skilled immigrants, but I'm guessing that lots of it isn't.
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should the US go toward more runoff elections? on: April 06, 2013, 11:23:32 am
     Looks like Montana voters will vote on going to a top two system next year.  Democrats not happy about this decision which will meant no Constitution or Libertarian candidates on the ballot in the general elections unless they are in the top two finishers.
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