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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: California Democrats got their legislative supermajorities on: December 03, 2016, 06:40:19 pm
  I haven't heard about anything like this so far, but there must be some Cal Democratic legislators who would love to tinker with Prop 13 and get some more property tax money flowing into state coffers.  Wonder if anything is going to happen on this front. Also, any supporters of California secession out there, or are they waiting for Trump to do something once he's in office to get the movement started?
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 12/04/2016 on: December 03, 2016, 12:21:16 pm
   Wow, that big of a margin would be a huge slap in the face for Renzi, with his resignation that much more likely.
    I wonder what the regional breakdown will be.  Possible narrow yes victory in Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, losses elsewhere, but where would the biggest no victory be?
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 03, 2016, 12:20:07 pm
   Anyone else planning my strategy for following the returns? I'm just going to be on the official results page and constantly refreshing. I don't want to see any exit polls, which just take the drama away.  Also going with the assumption that Hofer needs a margin of somewhere over 200k votes on Sunday to make up for Vdb  expected win with the postal ballots.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 03, 2016, 11:30:12 am
   Oh, certainly early voting misreadings are quite common by everybody, but I would think anything indicating less electoral activity coming out of Vienna would most likely be good news for Hofer.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 03, 2016, 01:27:59 am
   Some positives for Hofer might be that the biggest declines in postal votes is Vienna, and Carinthia is down the least.
   
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 01, 2016, 12:02:01 pm
  Tender if this trend holds throughout Austria of less postal ballots I wonder if its from both glue gate, as well as annulment of the last runoff in which, IIRC, there were questions about proper handling of postal ballots.  So maybe a lot of potential postal voters now are more concerned about the whole postal process.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands (GE March 15, 2017) on: December 01, 2016, 11:59:15 am
  Assuming the PVV does win a small plurality of seats, and that Wilders tries to form a government, what other parties would be potential coalition allies, or are there any?
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Top 5 positive outcomes expected from a Trump presidency on: November 28, 2016, 02:38:43 pm
   The main thing I'm looking forward to will be that if in fact Trump is nothing like the new Hitler, that will hopefully discredit the constant use of "he, (or she) is the new Hitler", so I'm hoping for what I call "the boy who cried wolf-ification" of such wild comments.
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 28, 2016, 02:26:54 pm
    Would love to see Trump appoint Tulsi Gabbard to SOS, to indicate his seriousness in moving the US toward a more non-interventionist foreign policy, and as a bridge to anti-war Democrats.  At least Bolton seems to be out of the running.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 28, 2016, 02:19:40 pm
   Iratemoderate, this is one of my political dreams/fantasies , of left of center parties embracing a low immigration policy, like Robert Fico in Slovakia. It would be fascinating to see how this would work out in reality in Germany.  Would there be enough of an electorate to back such a party in significant numbers?
  That's why I'd like to see a FPO-SPO coalition in Austria, to keep the FPO from going too far in a neo-liberal direction, and bring the SPO back to representing a pro Austrian working class attitude by going for immigration restriction.  One can dream this at any rate.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: November 28, 2016, 02:12:35 pm
   Tender, interesting observations.  I believe a few weeks ago you were thinking that turnout might be weaker among some pro-Hofer voters that you knew, so do you sense that they too will be voting?
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: November 27, 2016, 12:00:12 pm
  Tender, when will we get country-wide numbers for total postal ballots requested?
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: November 19, 2016, 01:38:59 am
   Well, I think the polls in for the first round were way off, but that was a multi-candidate field.  For the second round they were pretty close, IIRC, predicting a very close finish which we got.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: November 18, 2016, 12:53:46 pm
  I love how in the photo accompanying the article about Pinkafeld there are mountains in the background, giving the impression that Burgenland is like the Tyrol or something.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Irish bookmaker pays out Clinton bettors before election on: November 12, 2016, 06:08:32 pm
   Apparently the Irish bookmakers Paddypower were so sure that Clinton would win that they paid out Clinton bettors their money a few weeks before the election. Glad they got burned by this as they've done this before (for Labour bettors before one of Blairs reelections IIRC) so maybe it will teach them to wait before the outcome is known.
   Also, betting odds had Clinton only 3 or 4 to one favorites to win right before the election. Seems a little low. If I had had to bet I would have taken her at that price.
91  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do you prefer 'Czech Republic' or 'Czechia'? on: November 12, 2016, 01:31:31 pm
  I'm guessing my wife and I are one of the few couples in America to have had actual discussions about this issue over the last few years. I've always gone for Czechia, her for Czech Republic.
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Backs Away From Major Pledges, wall promise was 'campaign device' on: November 12, 2016, 01:25:50 pm
     I always felt that who paid for the wall was a diversion from the main idea of whether a wall, or similar border security structure should be built.  Backing away from who pays for it is one thing, but backing away from not actually doing something to make the border much less porous, regardless of who pays, would be a serious climb down for Trump. 
   I do believe that as of now Sen Sessions is in charge of immigration transition team issues which indicates some sort of harder line immigration stance.  Also, Kris Kobach, a major immigration restrictionist advocate is apparently part of that team.
93  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Univision: Sources Say Trump Plans to Legalize Some Undocumented Immigrants on: November 12, 2016, 11:47:48 am
   Isn't this article from August?
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WSJ: Trump Changes Position on the ACA on: November 12, 2016, 01:49:15 am
   If he sticks somewhat to his immigration policies, and moves to the center on government spending, role of government, social programs etc he might be moving toward the European Right wing party model.
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Second choice of Third party voters on: November 12, 2016, 01:43:37 am
   Anyone aware of any studies or estimates of the second choice of Stein, Johnson, Deep State Mcmuffin and Castle voters?  It would be fascinating to see who these voters chose in Senate and House elections.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Maine makes history on: November 12, 2016, 01:36:13 am
    What I'm really interested in seeing is how the Libertarian and Green parties utilize this law. Finally the whole argument of "don't waste your vote" can be destroyed, curb-stomped, annihilated, put to bed, and the electorate and can fire away and vote their true heart's desire.  This being the US, somehow I wouldn't be surprised if the third parties still end up fumbling this opportunity, but it will be fun to see what happens.
   I wouldn't be surprised if the Libertarians don't really emphasize the new system in their campaigning but I can see the Greens really getting behind it and mobilizing potential supporters to go Green 1, Dem 2 in places like Portland.
97  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How much of the New Deal and Great Society will remain by 2020? on: November 11, 2016, 06:17:54 pm
  This thread will be interesting to revisit in a few years.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's German harvest on: November 11, 2016, 06:13:48 pm
  The huge Russian spread for Clinton probably due to the big amount of Jews in that group.  Would like to see difference between German ancestry by Protestant vs Catholic.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point in the day do you think Hillary's team knew things were rough? on: November 11, 2016, 06:09:36 pm
  When the Broward early and mail vote count dump hit Florida and her lead wasn't that great, with big amounts of the rest of the state still to come in. I remember seeing one talking head say "we still have lots of Broward still to come" and I remember thinking this guy needs to be on Atlas forum more and he'd know that there wasn't that much left.  Perhaps then the Clinton team started to worry.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Black and Hispanic vote on: November 11, 2016, 06:03:51 pm
  Would like to see Hialeah Florida results from 2012 and 2016. On the MiamiDade election site I haven't found the breakdown by city, not sure if they do that.
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