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April 17, 2014, 10:27:22 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News nat.: Clinton leads Christie 50-42%, leads Bush & Paul 51-42% on: April 16, 2014, 09:35:42 pm
FoX News polls are objective. Say what you want to about the content of the news, the polls get it right.
2  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you believe in ancient aliens? on: April 16, 2014, 06:07:40 pm
NO!

The ancient Egyptians did some very good architecture based upon sophisticated geometry. They may have lost some of the knowledge after they no longer needed it.

The only 'ancient aliens' that I can imagine are Phoenicians reaching parts of the New World.   
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which is the most accurate theory of American politics? on: April 16, 2014, 03:54:04 pm
2 going to 4.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Mitchell Research: Snyder leads by 12 on: April 16, 2014, 03:50:47 pm
Apparently this poll had a bunch of push questions that Mitchell left off the PDF.

Push questions... push poll... worthless.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker up by 15 in Wisconsin on: April 15, 2014, 09:01:24 pm
He quickly becomes the hero of every right-wing economic interest -- the anti-worker, privatization, anti-education, and anti-environment causes. He probably begins deferring to the other parts of the Right -- if he isn't there yet -- on foreign policy, firearms, law enforcement, and sex.

He could be the monster of every liberal nightmare in the US. That is what the Right wants.   
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Mitchell Research: Snyder leads by 12 on: April 15, 2014, 08:11:19 pm
For those who never saw it -- at the least the woman is attractive. So is the scenery.

But I caught that she was not from China. Her alleged broken English was about as fake as it could be. Neophyte Chinese learners of English typically get English consonant clusters badly because those do not exist in Chinese. She got them as if she were a native speaker of English, which she probably is... It's about as if some German presents himself as an American by using broken German but uses a rapid cadence of speech characteristic of Germans but not of native speakers of English. 

She was also very sophisticated about American right-wing politics, which is itself spurious for someone from China.

Someone discussing the video exposed that she had a hairdo typical more of someone from Vietnam than from China... not that I would know.   

The real joke was that she was bragging about her country getting rich -- but she is in a rice paddy. The great wealth in China is not being created in rice paddies.  If I had created the ad I would have shown Shanghai or Hong Kong and not some rice paddy. 

It turns out that she was from California, and the Chinese landscape was almost certainly dubbed in.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Authorities say hate motivated Kansas shooting on: April 15, 2014, 07:57:05 pm
Attacks on people for real or imagined race, ethnicity, religion, or sexual orientation tear at the very fabric of a civil society.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: April 15, 2014, 03:31:42 pm
Texas: Rick Perry (PPP)

One thing that may be working to Abbott's benefit is that for the first time ever in PPP's Texas polling Rick Perry has a positive approval rating, with 48% of voters approving of him to 44% who disapprove. Perry's net approval has improved 18 points from where it was 2 years ago at this time in the wake of his failed Presidential bid, when only 39% of voters gave him good marks with 53% disapproving. - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/republicans-lead-in-texas.html#sthash.uhSSUq2C.dpuf

All Democrats are doing badly in the Corporate State of Texas.



1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 15, 2014, 03:26:48 pm
PPP, Texas. Nobody is going to argue with this finding:


Quote
There's one finding in this poll that goes a long way toward explaining all the other ones- only 36% of voters in the state approve of the job Barack Obama's doing to 58% who disapprove.  That makes life for Democrats running for office this year a lot more difficult
- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/republicans-lead-in-texas.html#sthash.uhSSUq2C.dpuf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)



10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: TX-PPP: Republicans in charge in all major statewide races on: April 15, 2014, 03:22:23 pm
If Texas were an independent state it would quickly become a fascist dictatorship. 
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Mitchell Research: Snyder leads by 12 on: April 15, 2014, 03:18:15 pm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Mitchell_MI_0826.pdf

If the election for the United States Senate was being held today and the candidates were Debbie Stabenow the Democrat and Pete Hoekstra the Republican who would you be voting for? If you are voting for or leaning towards Stabenow press 1, voting for or leaning towards Hoekstra press 2, if you’re not sure yet press 3.
Stabenow 44
Hoekstra 45
Not sure yet 11

This was long after the infamous "bicycle in a rice paddy" ad... long after everyone knew that Pete Hoekstra was going down to a landslide defeat. Debbie Stabenow won about 59-38.

Hoekstra didn't even make 45% as the poll suggested. 
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NH close to becoming 19th state to abolish the death penalty on: April 14, 2014, 08:27:53 am
Totally unrelated:

NH has a House with 400 members ?

In a state with only 1 Mio. people ?

Tongue

The NH House has more members than a majority of sovereign countries:  http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_legislatures_by_number_of_members

Each member is paid only $200 for the entire two-year session.

A model state in so many regards......

Imagine if this system was implemented at the federal level?

Only wealthy people could go in politics?
The State HoR is a part-time job, congressman isn't.

Make congressman work part time, force them to get jobs back home. The Swiss do it that way in fact.

The political power of USA and Switzerland isn't similar, through.

The Swiss federal model is an imitation of the US system of about 1815. It's not the other way around.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 14, 2014, 08:25:18 am
Outlier.

No way is the President doing 12% worse in Minnesota than in Wisconsin.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Keep on digging, Louisiana. Keep on digging. on: April 14, 2014, 05:48:27 am
Wouldn't the complete works of William Shakespeare have more and better lessons?
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ben Stein's "humble observation": Poor people are lazy, ugly, drunken dumbs on: April 13, 2014, 09:39:58 pm
Remember when Ben Stein had like a second moment in the sun during the 90s?

Everyone wanted to win his money.

Apparently not enough people actually did.

Producers put up the money for prizes.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can we please on: April 13, 2014, 08:32:10 pm
Rodgers wouldn't be picked to help win her state she would be picked because she's a women something the GOP ticket desperately needs against someone like Clinton. She's a conventional safe choice she's not Bachmann type crazy she's a Establishment mainstream pub who's acceptable nationwide.
Kelly Ayotte is too and she's at least a senator who could help in New Hampshire. As for women, they've also got Susana Martinez, Condi Rice, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem (not qualified but no less so than CMR), Deb Fischer, and others, all of whom are at least as good of choices as McMorris Rodgers.

Kristi Noem has a huge collection of speeding tickets -- evidence of contempt for the people that the law is intended to protect. One was for 57 in a 25 zone (probably a school zone). Speeding at that level kills.
Speeding tickets? Really?

I'd use those against her if I were a political opponent as proof of her contempt for some parts of the law. Would you vote for a tax cheat?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can we please on: April 12, 2014, 11:25:44 pm
Rodgers wouldn't be picked to help win her state she would be picked because she's a women something the GOP ticket desperately needs against someone like Clinton. She's a conventional safe choice she's not Bachmann type crazy she's a Establishment mainstream pub who's acceptable nationwide.
Kelly Ayotte is too and she's at least a senator who could help in New Hampshire. As for women, they've also got Susana Martinez, Condi Rice, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem (not qualified but no less so than CMR), Deb Fischer, and others, all of whom are at least as good of choices as McMorris Rodgers.

Kristi Noem has a huge collection of speeding tickets -- evidence of contempt for the people that the law is intended to protect. One was for 57 in a 25 zone (probably a school zone). Speeding at that level kills.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NH close to becoming 19th state to abolish the death penalty on: April 12, 2014, 07:18:32 pm


I applaud this movement.

Am I the only person shocked that West Virginia doesn't have the death penalty?

I would think the land of Hatfields and McCoys and Appalachian frontier justice would be less soft.

West Virginia used to be a very liberal state in many respects. That is over. 
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Federal government surrenders to armed right wing militia in Nevada on: April 12, 2014, 07:17:19 pm
The Feds can do all sorts of things -- like close the roads to the ranch and cut off the water. If he can't get water for the stock or sell the stock on the market, then he might give in. The IRS might find itself useful in the event that Bundy has made any misstatement on tax forms.

   
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris McDaniel 2016 on: April 12, 2014, 07:13:28 pm
If he wins the MS Senate seat in 2014, could he be a factor in 2016 (probably as a VP candidate)?

He would lose any part of America proud of its renunciation of segregationism. That includes Texas. He would lose a raft of states (the Dakotas, maybe Nebraska and even Kansas) that Democrats seem to never win. 

One-term Senator after two years and just to the left of David DuKKKe? No way!
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Huckabee's ceiling against Clinton in the Electoral College? on: April 12, 2014, 07:09:58 pm
Next week, PPP shows its results from Texas. Being from Arkansas gives one no great advantage in Texas; Bill Clinton lost the state twice. Until PPP results come out for Texas I am going to remain silent about the floor.

Huckabee is close to his ceiling. He gets most of his current exposure on Faux News Channel, which means he gets heavy attention from people on the Right but little from the rest of America. His floor in the popular vote is about 45%, which puts Texas in play for Hillary Clinton.

Ceiling? 56% popular vote following a failed Obama Administration with a economic collapse or a diplomatic/military debacle. That's about how Eisenhower did against Stevenson. In such a case



shows what an Eisenhower-style win in the popular vote would look like for a Republican following a President then reviled as a failure much as Truman was then seen.

407 Huckabee (R)
131 Clinton (D)


with Clinton wins restricted to the extreme in the Northeast and on the Pacific Coast. She still avoids a Carter-style loss because two of the states that she wins are California and New York.
 
 
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why has the Middle Class so declined? on: April 12, 2014, 02:36:53 pm
We have horrible fiscal and monetary policies that completely eradicate the middle class.

The monetary policies at the least have forced the rewards for saving to near zero. Tax policies effectively give every advantage to giant, vertically-integrated businesses  -- most notably an effective flat tax on business income while allowing giant entities to write off costs of squeezing small-scale competitors (and small business owners have long been much of the middle class) into oblivion.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: April 12, 2014, 02:12:57 pm
Louisiana: 42-53 opposed.  (The link has conflicting numbers on the opposition, I had to dig into the poll pdf itself to find the actual opposition number).

nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/04/gay_civil_unions_medical_marij.html

Category change.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NH close to becoming 19th state to abolish the death penalty on: April 12, 2014, 02:11:36 pm


I applaud this movement.

Yellow stands for states that have abolished the death penalty for new crimes but may still impose it on murderers convicted before the repeal -- like the two perpetrators of the horrendous multiple crimes (including murder, robbery, and rape) committed against the family of Dr. Pettit.

Capital punishment is administered so capriciously that it has no rationality.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-St. Norbert College: Gov. Walker (R) with massive lead on: April 11, 2014, 09:17:21 am
This has usually been a pollster debunked quickly.
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