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March 05, 2015, 07:04:01 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: Today at 01:21:27 pm
Quote
WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday said it will hear oral arguments on April 28 on whether states can ban gay marriage, addressing a hot social issue in what promises to yield one of the justices' most important rulings of the year.

[...] A ruling is due by the end of June.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/05/scotus-gay-marriage-date_n_6809100.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP to poll Wisconsin this weekend on: Today at 12:20:41 pm
i predict this poll predictions thread will be lame

Even worse -- pointless.

Here's the last PPP poll for Wisconsin (April 24, 2014):

Clinton 50 -- Bush 39
Clinton 49 -- Christie 39
Clinton 50 -- Huckabee 38
Clinton 50 -- Ryan 45
Clinton 51 -- Walker 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/clinton-leads-ryan-walker-in-wisconsin.html#more

Quinnipiac has nothing about Wisconsin since 2012... but count on some Q polls.

Marquette Law School, anyone?






3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ben Carson: Prison makes people go gay on: March 04, 2015, 09:01:29 pm
Prison sex is often assault... I can't imagine assaultive behavior, whatever the orientation, sexy.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Elon Uni: Hillary up 6 against Bush on: March 04, 2015, 04:07:18 pm
PPP did a poll of North Carolina, and basically concurred.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 04, 2015, 04:05:19 pm
Clinton 46%
Bush 42%

Clinton 45%
Christie 42%

Clinton 46%
Huckabee 46%

Clinton 46%
Paul 43%

Clinton 45%
Walker 43%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_30415.pdf

Elon looks good.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more








6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Walker beat Hillary? on: March 04, 2015, 09:32:43 am
Right-to-Work (but only for much less)  legislation is not moderation. Walker is a mirror-image of a Marxist, the sort of person who takes delight in the vices that Marx saw in the capitalist order of his time instead (as any decent person would do) of seeing those as abominable or unnecessary.

Moderate? Nothing about him is moderate.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats only: 4 wishes... on: March 04, 2015, 09:28:39 am
Begich, Grimes, Nunn, Hagan. Three who had moderate records, and McConnell would be out as Majority Leader and out of the Senate.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 04, 2015, 09:23:36 am
Open seats in California and Maryland will obviously go D.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NC-SEN: Burr Looking Good, even against Hagan on: March 04, 2015, 12:57:49 am
It is impossible for Hagan to get her over 50% unfavorables down. It's a shame, since she really did nothing that warrants THAT much hatred.

A politician running afoul of the Koch syndicate will have his reputation run through toxic waste.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 04, 2015, 12:48:22 am
PPP, North Carolina

Quote
Richard Burr's situation remains stable- an approval rating in the low 30s danger zone, but leads of 6-12 points against his most mentioned potential Democratic opponents who are either unknown or unpopular. Burr has a 32% approval, with 37% of voters disapproving of him. He had come in at 31/36 and 34/35 on our previous two surveys, showing the same kind of relative poll to poll stability that McCrory has.

Burr leads Treasurer Janet Cowell 44/38, former Senator Kay Hagan 50/43, former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx 45/36, and Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines 45/33. For most of the potential hopefuls a lot of their deficit is attributable simply to the fact that they're not very well known.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/03/mccrory-leads-cooper-by-just-2.html














11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 03, 2015, 08:07:37 pm
Status of lawful same-sex marriage when the 8th Circuit Court approved Nebraska's ban in 2006:



White -- same-sex marriage permitted by law

Things have changed, have they not?
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: History of the legalization of same-sex marriage in America on: March 03, 2015, 08:01:47 pm
Nebraska could easily be next.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sarah Palin comes up with genius solution for ISIS on: March 03, 2015, 07:53:50 pm
It took nearly three and a half years after the declaration of war by the Third Reich against the United States for the war against Nazi Germany to end with utter defeat of the Hitler gang. Dispatching the Japanese thug regime took near four years after the attack on Pearl Harbor.

And that was after the Soviet Union being at war with the Third Reich for six months before the America entry into the war and Britain France, and Poland being at war with the Third Reich for more than two years -- and with China having been at war with Japan since 1937.

Those are not minor details; those are major facts. One ignores those major facts as either a fool or an ignoramus. Sarah Palin is a scatterbrain.    

Unless President Obama is unusually competent on military and diplomatic standards, even surpassing FDR, it is unlikely that he will have destroyed ISIS. But if he does -- he is the greatest President since FDR.

 so are you "scatterbrained" for ignoring the equally major fact that Isis, while not in ormidable, is FAR Weaker a military force than the Third Riech? If you would hold Palin. To that standard I assume you would hold yourself to it as well.

Unless President Obama is unusually competent on military and diplomatic standards, even surpassing FDR, it is unlikely that he will have destroyed ISIS. But if he does -- he is the greatest President since FDR.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 03, 2015, 11:03:15 am
States that I would like to see polled:

Illinois (Senate race)
Wisconsin (Walker's state and a Senate race)
Indiana (lots of luck!)
Arizona
Georgia
Arkansas
Missouri (someone credible)
Kentucky (Paul's home state, gubernatorial contest)
Kansas
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Walker beat Hillary? on: March 03, 2015, 10:52:22 am
1. Unforeseen scandal

2. Economic meltdown

3. Catastrophic war associated with the Democrats

4. Rigged election


...Scott Walker is not the Republican equivalent of John F. Kennedy.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sarah Palin comes up with genius solution for ISIS on: March 02, 2015, 08:32:14 pm
It took nearly three and a half years after the declaration of war by the Third Reich against the United States for the war against Nazi Germany to end with utter defeat of the Hitler gang. Dispatching the Japanese thug regime took near four years after the attack on Pearl Harbor.

And that was after the Soviet Union being at war with the Third Reich for six months before the America entry into the war and Britain France, and Poland being at war with the Third Reich for more than two years -- and with China having been at war with Japan since 1937.

Those are not minor details; those are major facts. One ignores those major facts as either a fool or an ignoramus. Sarah Palin is a scatterbrain.   
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 02, 2015, 08:23:20 pm
Quote
A federal judge has ruled Nebraska's statewide ban on gay marriage unconstitutional.

U.S. District Judge Joseph Bataillon issued the ruling Monday, saying county clerks will be permitted to begin issuing gay marriage licenses on March 9.

"[A]ll relevant state officials are ordered to treat same-sex couples the same as different sex couples in the context of processing a marriage license or determining the rights, protections, obligations or benefits of marriage," he wrote in the order.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/02/nebraska-gay-marriage_n_6783464.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

There will be an appeal by the Attorney General of Nebraska. He is confident that the Eighth Circuit will uphold the appeal. In view of the record of such appeals, he must be an extreme optimist about the federal courts upholding such an appeal.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 02, 2015, 05:35:08 pm
Quote
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) announced on Monday (3/2/2015 -- my inclusion) she will retire from the U.S. Senate.

Mikulski has served in the U.S. Senate since 1987, and before that, was elected to the House of Representatives in 1976. She has been in Congress longer than any other woman, and was the first woman to head the Senate Appropriations Committee.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/02/barbara-mikulski-retiring_n_6783368.html













19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush or Scott Walker on: March 01, 2015, 01:16:59 pm
Jeb seems much less dangerous.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are Fiorina's Qualifications? on: March 01, 2015, 01:16:13 pm
35+.
Born in the US.
Fits residency requirements.

...I can say the same of Charles Manson.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: People from either party you would support and why on: March 01, 2015, 01:15:02 pm
Maybe if Ed Brooke would come back among us...
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker, God's Gift to the Democratic Party on: March 01, 2015, 01:13:45 pm
You've got to love how deranged Walker makes these people, It makes tea party rants about Obama seem sensible

Walker may love America -- but he certainly hates democracy unless it gets the results he wants (plutocratic oligarchy).
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In general (not just dating), do nice guys finish last? on: February 28, 2015, 10:09:17 pm
People prefer dealing with nice guys.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are your favorite animals? on: February 28, 2015, 10:08:12 pm
Most beautiful -- leopard
Most athletic -- dog, sea otter
Most remarkable for intelligence (other than us) -- elephant
Scariest -- box jellyfish, Nile or saltwater crocodile, tiger
Gentlest despite its abilities -- dog (except for good behavior it is a typical man-eater)
Best engineered --  parrot
Most versatile -- mimic octopus
Gentlest giant -- horse (land), whale shark (ocean)
Most likely to succeed us as the dominant creature -- pig
Most critical to civilization -- the cat (guardian of the granaries)
Would travel to see -- giant panda
Tastiest -- abalone
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPAC 2015: February 25-28 on: February 28, 2015, 05:43:16 pm
MSNBC article:

Quote
As a governor, Walker’s portfolio has been light on foreign policy compared to the senators in the race, and he offered little in specifics when asked how he’d confront the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria while generally pledging to protect America from attacks. But he did suggest that his battles with unions over collective bargaining rights might help prepare him for the job.

If I can take on 100,000 protesters, I can do the same across the world,” he said.

That line drew a swift response from Democratic National Committee spokesman Mo Elleithee.

If Scott Walker thinks that it’s appropriate to compare working people speaking up for their rights to brutal terrorists, then he is even less qualified to be president than I thought,” Elleithee said. “Maybe he should go back to punting.”

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/cpac-tests-gop-2016-field
I don't agree with Mo Elleithee on much but Walker went over the line in my opinion comparing protesters to terrorists. He probably is just pandering the crowd but for us  Moderates we think twice about for voting somebody  that says that. That along with Planned Parenthood and Walker defunding it in his state brings up red flags about Walker in my opinion. He also said in his recall election in 2011 he wouldn't do right-to-work laws in his state for private sector workers now he says he is gonna do it. I am having my doubts about Walker right now. I'm not saying I wouldn't vote for him but like I said its red flags and enough red flags that are put up like Romney in 2012 I just can't vote for you.

Bingo. Some lines are not to be crossed. Comparing benign opponents to pure evil such as Nazis, Stalinists, or now ISIS violates any concept of political decency. Peaceful protest is an essential part of democracy, one of the few non-electoral constraints upon excess.

Walker well knows that the way to satisfy his part of the electorate is to deny the Other Side anything. Such is a consequence of polarization. Most issues divide roughly 52-48, and some issues (same-sex marriage) offer no compromise.

...On Right-to-Work... Scott Walker's word is worthless. He backtracked when he saw impending defeat and struck again swiftly when he thought that he could get away with it. Such is politics by fait accompli, shown highly effective -- by Vladimir Lenin and Benito Mussolini.  

Scott Walker will captivate the religious fundamentalists who believe that economics don't matter (because This World is nothing but a test for whether one goes to Heaven or Hell) and of course those people who want America to be a place with no restraints upon entrepreneurial and executive greed, and perhaps a brain drain.  

The Right is going to love him just as the Right loved Goldwater in 1964. But Goldwater lost states that no Republican nominee had lost since 1936 and have not lost since 1964. I also remember how enthusiastic the Left was about George McGovern in 1972 and how astonished it was that the rest of America lacked enthusiasm for him by voting 49-1 among the States against him.



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