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December 07, 2016, 05:24:50 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Would the US be better off with a multi-party system? on: December 06, 2016, 12:33:01 pm
Multi-Party system? Not in our first-post-the-post system, our Presidential republic. We would need a Parliamentary system to have relevant third, forth, and fifth Parties. A fifth Party could easily be the "Knights Party", the political arm of the KKK. Does anyone want a coalition involving the KKK or the Communists? 
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: December 06, 2016, 12:14:43 pm
First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Favorability:



Probably useful until March.

Approval:



Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: President Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton on: December 06, 2016, 12:07:40 pm
I predict that Donald Trump will be a very bad President, ready to be defeated much like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. He has promised miracles and will bring disaster instead. He wins only in a rigged election (which I cannot now rule out).
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare repealed...then what? on: December 06, 2016, 02:24:11 am
I expect the Republicans to replace Obamacare with "Profits First" medicine that will be even costlier... and substandard. After all, corporate profits and executive compensation will be the only measure of economic virtue in Trump's America.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TIME Person of the Year on: December 05, 2016, 11:50:53 pm
Trump.

It's not really an honor. Both Hitler and Stalin were named Men of the Year, and not for being nice guys.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: December 05, 2016, 11:48:15 pm
Blank map. Favorability:



Probably useful until March.

Approval:



Even -- white



Green, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90% 

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Wisconsin gone for the dems in 2020? (maybe not) on: December 05, 2016, 11:30:33 pm
The key to the Republicans winning Wisconsin in 2020 is the re-election of Scott Walker or his Republican successor. If the Democrats get the Governorship of Wisconsin in 2018, then there will be no effort at voter suppression.   
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump's re-election inevitable? on: December 03, 2016, 11:10:52 am
Unless this is ironic, the Personality Cult has begun to emerge before President Obama is inaugurated. Anyone who opposes or even falls short of the requisite enthusiasm of support will be a damnable enemy.

We have not had a President like Obama  when the government had anything near the assets and power that the Presidency now has. I have no cause to believe that he has the temperament or training to be adequate in foreign policy, economic stewardship, or political advocacy. He has shown himself competent only in appealing to the greediest and least learned but angry segments of the electorate. One satisfies the greediest with mass suffering in economics for everyone else and the  angry buffoons with pulling others down to their levels of economic failure.

We have over 200 years of heritage of resistance to any baby steps toward despotism.  To be sure, democracy can die anywhere, but there will be much resistance.

This would be interesting except for the fact that it is Hillary Clinton who claimed Republicans are the Enemy, and it was Barry who created those pen and phone powers.

Live and die by the sword.

All Presidents are unique, and so are their times. But like most others,  Barack Obama had a voting record and a record of public service. He got frequently-harsh scrutiny from the media. His temperament was obvious to all of us, and it was tame enough.

I'm not going to make too much of his ethnicity as a difference. He was a very conventional choice. He had an agenda, and what you saw was a reasonable indication of what you were going to get.

Donald Trump? Experience only in the private sector. Schooling? Definitely no law degree.

Not since at least George Wallace (if by major one means getting any electoral votes or getting 10% of the popular vote) has any major Presidential nominee so resorted to dog-whistle racism. Calling for violence and imprisonment of opponents?

If I were in the position to offer someone a job involving some complexity of thought I would expect to occasionally hear some complexity in communicating some reality in life. Few complex jobs can be expressed entirely with canned phrases at an elementary-school level of thought. What is necessary for an assembly-line worker (arguably the simpler the mind the better) is very different from what I would expect in a foreman.

For analogues to Donald Trump I must look outside the American experience, and the analogues scare me. Short fuse? Vindictiveness? Use of language that can mean just about anything to anyone depending upon the concerns of that person?  Utter disregard of the validity of the concerns of people on the Other Side? Admiration of tyrants?

A more conventional conservative, let us say Jeb Bush, wouldn't be so troublesome.

I expect that once people start demonstrating against his policies he will start faulting those people for disloyalty to America. After all, loyalty to the Leader is the definitive loyalty to the nation, is it not?

Sure -- in a dictatorship. We Americans are familiar with dictatorships -- but elsewhere.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020? on: December 02, 2016, 10:11:03 am
Do none of you understand the constitution? The president doesn't have unlimited power. Trump is a bit authoritarian for my tastes, but not as much as Clinton. Additionally, seeing people who like Fidel Castro warn about a Trump dictatorship makes me unsure if I ought to laugh or cringe.

Seriously, there is no chance of a dictatorship unless a full-scale civil war breaks out, which we all know isn't going to happen, and even then it would be highly unlikely. The National guard and police may have to crush a riot or two, but that's the extent of it.

P.S. I love how you are all so concerned about rigged elections now after saying a month ago that Trump was a "threat to democracy" for not pledging to accept the results until he saw if there was fraud. The doublethink of the left is wondrous to behold.

1. The President has the powers that Congress will let him exercise. After 3010 President Obama was a weak President.  All that can stop Donald Trump is the Supreme Court (which he is likely to fill with people sympathetic to his beliefs on human rights and economics), the unwillingness of local law enforcement to repress dissent, and any rifts in the Republican Party.

2. The real difference between Donald Trump and Fidel Castro is simply that they have opposite views on whether economic inequality that dehumanizes the masses is a good thing. Marxists and ultra-capitalists believe that capitalism is the same thing, an order engineered to enrich elites at the expense of everyone else. Castro opposes the exploitation; Trump wants to intensify it. Both offer mind-numbing propaganda in the service of their beliefs and make implications of violence to anyone who gets in the way.

Both are True Believers with ho tolerance of any disagreement in policy or objectives. That they disagree as diametrically on whether capitalism at its harshest is ideally good or horrifically evil matters little when one considers that they see capitalism as the same harsh economic order and reduce political debate to "I know everything that there is to know, and if you disagree with me, go burn in Hell".




   
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump's re-election inevitable? on: December 02, 2016, 09:56:57 am
Yes, especially if his opponent is the Goofy Loon elizabeth warren.


She's a very popular politician. So no.

If the opponent is Kanye West or someone boring like Martin O'Malley then he'll get a 2nd term.

You know she only beat Scotty doesn't know Brown by a few points, right? Who is the nasty woman popular with outside of her Massachusetts and California base?

I distinctly remember you insisting in 2012 that Brown would win reelection.

That might very well be true. I know I learned from my mistake in believing in any such failures of 2012. Now we have the Greatness of Trump to take the fight to the enemy.

Unless this is ironic, the Personality Cult has begun to emerge before President Trump is inaugurated. Anyone who opposes or even falls short of the requisite enthusiasm of support will be a damnable enemy.

We have not had a President like Trump  when the government had anything near the assets and power that the Presidency now has. I have no cause to believe that he has the temperament or training to be adequate in foreign policy, economic stewardship, or political advocacy. He has shown himself competent only in appealing to the greediest and least learned but angry segments of the electorate. One satisfies the greediest with mass suffering in economics for everyone else and the  angry buffoons with pulling others down to their levels of economic failure.

We have over 200 years of heritage of resistance to any baby steps toward despotism.  To be sure, democracy can die anywhere, but there will be much resistance.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should democrats running in 2020 Pledge to accept the results of the election? on: December 01, 2016, 08:25:53 pm
Not if there are valid accusations of vote fraud or manipulation significant enough to change the results or if electoral practices have made a travesty of the right to vote.

I expect to thoroughly hate life so much under Donald Trump and his stooge Congress that I will be a suicide risk every day. But there are worse ways to get a leader than the one that got us Donald Trump -- like assassinations,  political systems with no meaningful choice, absolute monarchy, and military coups.

We are in for a four-year lesson in civics, segment PATHOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP. When we are through with this lesson maybe we will go on to something else.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump's re-election inevitable? on: December 01, 2016, 04:49:25 pm
You also have to realize that historically it is less than normal for an incumbant to be defeated.
I can't help wondering if Trump will be primaried, however.

Clinton "won" in 1992, but it was after twelve years of GOP control of the WH, not four.
Jimmy Carter lost, but Carter is a Democrat and Trump is not.
The only time the GOP has lost the WH after only four years is 1892.

Democrats should be careful to predict a win in 2020. Is overconfidence ever a good thing?

The partisan label means far less than does the quality of performance. If Donald Trump performs badly as President (and Presidents now have responsibility for economic results, too), then he too can go down.

There is no obvious precedent for Donald Trump.  He ran an iconoclastic campaign in which he promised to 'stick it' to millions of Americans, and I expect him to keep that promise and create a large number of resolute opponents by 2020.  Will that come with improving lives for most Americans? I doubt it.

If a one-term President, then the analogies are weak for the elder Bush (incumbency fatigue will not have set in) and stronger for Hoover (got caught with a financial panic) and Carter (economic malaise. hostages in Iran). Anyone who wants to believe that the Obama recovery will continue on its own with a President who will gut the policies behind it needs far more imagination than I can supply.

I expect him to be a disaster in foreign policy because he knows nothing and will listen only to yes-men. Domestic policy? All for the Few. He wants the same sort of real-estate boom that Dubya had. Americans knows how well that worked the last time and will be chary about it. I have yet to figure, unless it is for the super-rich, for whom he will "Make America Great Again", a vapid and meaningless slogan (because of its vagueness)  that can be turned on its head with Presidential incompetence.

Deporting all the illegal aliens will require a huge build-up in detention facilities... and internal passports for all Americans. There will be family break-ups because the 9-year-old is an illegal alien and the 6-year-old is a US citizen by birth. And what will be the use of those detention facilities after the 'illegal aliens' are deported? Political prisoners?  No thanks!

Even more disturbing would be that America will be less attractive for people to immigrate to. Donald Trump has suggested an Education Secretary hostile to high-quality public education. Think about it. If you are an Indian with a tech degree and you have the choice between taking a job in the USA or in Great Britain and the educational system in America is gutted, then where would you go? Also consider this: some illegal aliens own businesses. 

As America becomes a less-attractive place to live, expect real estate values to plummet. So you can be an engineer and your kids can be fast-food workers or retail sales clerks... maybe you might want to take your engineering degree elsewhere. There will be lots of houses with sellers but no buyers. But that means that people will be unable to use their housing equity as an ATM for the Good Life.

Pay will rise? Not if the Corporate Right gets its way and gets to end collective bargaining. Tax cuts will be strictly for the Master Class.  Elite spending does not  drive the economy.

One way or the other, Donald Trump will be a disaster as a President.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump's re-election inevitable? on: December 01, 2016, 02:15:00 pm
If he wants to run again... and the election is rigged.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best matchup for the Dems to win MS in a non-landslide win on: December 01, 2016, 02:14:06 pm
You'd have to turn the calendar back to 1976, when blacks and work0ng-class Southern whites voted alike. That's ancient history now.

Democrats need to make sure that they can win Michigan in 2020!
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: You mark my words: if dems run away from 3rd way clintonionism, an abyss awaits on: December 01, 2016, 01:49:51 am
LOL.  No.  Democrats lost precisely because they didn't realize how many "deplorables" were actually voting for their Black nominee twice, and the types of folks who post on here had deluded themselves to believing that a candidate actually got elected on the backs of solely benevolent White liberals in big cities, PhD holders and all of the lovable minorities that seek their protection.  Such a coalition would get about 30% of the popular vote, of course.

Maybe Hillary Clinton could have been clearer about who the "deplorables" were -- people who, knowing that Donald Trump is a racist, religious bigot, and misogynist  could vote for him.

OK, this was a bad choice of words. We're all taught from an early age to not associate with creeps and creepy causes. But many of us have forgotten that lesson.

But what the heck. We get to see race relations go back 50 years and labor-management relations go back 90 at the least.

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mitt Romney 2020? on: November 30, 2016, 08:30:12 pm
This was Mitt Romney's best chance, considering that he did unusually well against a very strong incumbent President in 2012. I can't understand why he didn't run unless it was his wife's medical condition.

The only way in which he ever becomes President is the route of Gerald Ford...
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020? on: November 30, 2016, 08:26:22 pm
there won’t be a President Drumpf by that time.

haha.  That's what I was thinking as well.  He may end up getting himself impeached, but I think he'll resign.  Not just under pressure to avoid impeachment either.  I think he'll grow bored with this gig long before the general election of 2020. 

I hope that's not the case--peaceful transfer of power after four or eight years of freedom and prosperity would be preferable to me, regardless of the identity of the president--but my hunch is that he'll get tired of the scrutiny and of the responsibility pretty quickly and we'll end up with President Pence at some point before the election of 2020.



Freedom and prosperity? I expect neither. There will be prosperity, but only for a very small part of the population who really rules America. We will have the freedom to recognize Donald Trump as the man who saved America... Cubans had that freedom under Fidel Castro, too. Donald Trump wants more power for the FBI to hack the Internet... if it is for detecting a terrorist threat or someone doing crime on the Internet such as securities fraud or copyright violations, OK. But if it is against dissent, then welcome to China.

Having shown himself an extremist and acting erratically he would be one-and-done in a well-functioning democracy even if he got elected.  I just can't be sure that we will have a functioning democracy in 2020. 

Be thankful that people like me protest and demonstrate against the excesses of the President and his monolithic, subservient Party. Such is the proof of freedom being alive in America.   
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was this the most significant election of recent times? on: November 30, 2016, 07:32:19 pm
YES!

Possible establishment of an authoritarian, repressive, reactionary America in which 95% of the people are obliged to suffer for 2% -- but smile anyway. This could be the last free election involving federal offices in America for a very long time.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll for Republicans: Should Republicans be gloating? on: November 30, 2016, 07:29:58 pm
I'm glad now that I have no children to live in Trump's fascistic America.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll for Republicans: Should Republicans be gloating? on: November 30, 2016, 04:49:53 pm
Not voting, as I am a Democrat -- just make sure that you like what you get.

The only campaign promise that I expect Donald Trump to keep is to stick it to the educated middle class.   
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did panic set in with Clinton camp? on: November 30, 2016, 04:24:36 pm
Cheer up, folks! All we need to do is work -- -and work -- and work.... no time for complaints, but make sure to put on that theatrical, pain-hiding smile as you earn your right to survive in the new high-tech feudalism of Donald Trump's America which will be greater than it has ever been. Don't concern yourself with pay -- all that matters is that the Right People get whatever they want, for they have become arbiters of truth and justice in the new America.

[/satire]
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: President Donald Trump vs Michelle Obama on: November 29, 2016, 02:53:16 pm
America is really suffering if the President's approval rating is 29%. Recession? Bungled wars? Putin's diplomacy by blackmail burning America? Civil unrest?

Clinton 2016 with

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Florida
ME-02


maybe Ohio and Arizona. Rural distress makes Iowa, Missouri, NE-02, Kansas and the Dakotas possible pick-ups. 


That's 2008 all over. 
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the Democrats were to "double-down" on their urban, elitist image... on: November 29, 2016, 02:17:42 pm
We better hope that Trump is an effective president or we get stuck with another fundie neocon as president when Pence takes over.

We may need to see both -- and see them both fail -- if we are to get our stuff together politically.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Honest question: Will there be an election in 2020? on: November 28, 2016, 10:48:50 pm
Think of every right-wing evil not specifically precluded by the Constitution of a Supreme Court ruling, and consider it possible. That is the Trump Administration we face.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will state polls be viewed/regarded in 2020? on: November 28, 2016, 02:07:03 pm
It is not how people vote anymore; it's how the votes are counted.   Welcome to the Union of Christian and Corporate States.
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