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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Board Republicans - do you consider this political viewpoint "deplorable?" on: Today at 08:00:51 am
The arguments for white superiority over blacks based upon genetic distance from West Africans is folly for any white person who wants to claim even equality against East Asians who are even more distant genetically from West Africans.

But go on. Even The Bell Curve recognizes that there are about 120,000 black Americans in the "cognitive elite" who could serve as a ruling class for the whole of America. Prime example: Barack Obama.

...Blacks have had far fewer opportunities and more burdens, as a group, than  white people. Yes, there are very disadvantaged white people who do not enjoy any semblance of white privilege. But this said, blacks have been disadvantaged as a whole in the race to accumulate wealth, develop economic networks beyond the African-American community, and get two generations beyond the struggle to escape poverty.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The faker-in-chief: No single day without a lie on: Today at 07:49:13 am
How in the hell can you get away with this much lying and not be impeached yet (or get elected in the first place)?

Lying is not a crime in itself unless it constitutes perjury or fraud, involves obstruction of justice, or as part of a war crime.

Lying about one's behavior while under investigation for a crime may not be what one is convicted of, but just remember the FBI technique of inducing a suspect to tell self-serving lies that other testimony or evidence already collected contradicts.

The lies that the President tells damage the competence of his Administration and the good will of the American People.  These go beyond statements of some unpopular ideology.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Safe Space? NC Republicans propose politcal party quotas for college professors on: Today at 07:41:40 am
Lol @ liberals supporting AA but not this.

     It really shows the ignorance of the values of the liberal society that has descended upon us. Diversity is valuable for the variety of ideas it brings to the table. There is no sense in supporting some diversity measures while opposing one that directly contributes to the diversity of ideas.

Corporate America has a captive audience for political propaganda of its choosing among anyone who works in the for-profit sector. "Tax reductions for shareholders, a national right-to-work law, abolition of the minimum wage, tort reform, etc. will create more jobs and hence opportunities here" is about what I would expect -- and it is all in line with the Reactionary Party.

College students who have held a job in a fast-food place or retail store are already exposed to the propaganda of the American Right -- from their employers.

 
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politician gets shouted down at town hall megathread on: Today at 07:36:27 am
I think there have been enough of these events at this point to warrant a megathread containing them all.  If a mod objects for whatever reason, then feel free to delete this thread.

Comparisons are appropriate. If the techniques are different in Nebraska and New Jersey, then it might be telling. Issues are relevant.   

For most non-locals. "Congressman from Illinois" and "Congressman from Indiana" will be all that matters.     
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lawyer for detained “Dreamer” says ICE documents were doctored on: Today at 05:11:21 am
The pen is mightier than the pencil

In this case an eraser is more powerful than a pen.

Altering a defendant's statements to get a better result for a prosecutor or in this case deportation officers is a crime called FORGERY. Forgery is usually an easy deed to identify, and even if criminal charges are not pressed, there are appropriate sanctions for anyone who did the forgery -- two words that someone has made much of on one of his reality-TV shows.

"YOU'RE FIRED!"

Rectification of the wrong done to the victim, including the return of  funds or other assets taken from the victim and the release of the person from a contract that must be deem void) is appropriate.

Gang affiliation would of course be valid cause to denaturalize a citizen born elsewhere for subsequent deportation, let alone to rush the deportation of an illegal alien.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Safe Space? NC Republicans propose politcal party quotas for college professors on: Today at 04:57:55 am
Something to consider: political conservatives generally trust for-profit entities much more than do political liberals. Conservatives are more likely to seek careers in for-profit activities that many liberals find abhorrent. Liberals tend to steer by default to academia (whether colleges or K-12 education), the professions, and the civil service.

Are conservatives as well suited for academia by temperament? Some are. Not enough, though.   
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senator Ernst shut down at townhall with people shouting "YOUR LAST TERM" on: February 21, 2017, 11:46:27 pm
I think Ernst is fine. Isn't she generally popular? Especially since there are four whole years until her election.

Polls of Iowa just before Election 2016 showed her with approval ratings around 40. You expect that with an extremist in a moderate state. 
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Safe Space? NC Republicans propose politcal party quotas for college professors on: February 21, 2017, 09:10:40 pm
Lol @ liberals supporting AA but not this.

The idea is to make colleges reflect the opinions of the GOP majority in 2017. Republicans would be wise to scrap this idea because it will

(1) do nothing to improve the quality of education,
(2) will saddle the universities with professors who get few students
(3) will eventually lead to protests when the political climate changes

I prefer that colleges be comparatively placid places where people do real teaching, learning, and research... and not arenas for pitched battles of ideology. 

Ho9w do we know what the political climate will be four years from now?
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senator Ernst shut down at townhall with people shouting "YOUR LAST TERM" on: February 21, 2017, 09:01:43 pm
This kind of behavior will backfire. One can disagree without shutting a meeting down. What happened to civility? Yes, I know, Trump sets a bad example, but that is no excuse.

Liberals are doing what their political opposites did in 2009 and 2010.  Why should it not work for them this time with a President more unpopular more quickly than was Barack Obama?

The Tea Party started acting when President Obama was still well above water in popular support. The anti-Trump protests begin when he is already in political trouble.   
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 21, 2017, 08:30:02 pm
Virginia: Roanoke Poll 

Approve 32%
Disapprove 50%

Methinks the GOP will probably lose the Governor's race again...

...and a handful of House seats. That is the most effective way to stop the Trump agenda should voters get sick of the President. 
....................

I hope to see some polls of states that have yet to be polled since the election. Virginia seems to be careening away from the GOP much as West Virginia careened away from the Democrats around 2000.



11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Populist correctness: the new PC culture of Trump's America and Brexit Britain on: February 21, 2017, 08:14:08 am
We can end political correctness and start doing the same thing to rural blue collar whites that we say to inner city blacks. Why should we tell them we're going to bring their jobs back? Maybe we should tell them to work harder, get education or job training and pull themselves up by the bootstraps because the government doesn't owe them money and they're just lazy for not working or having jobs???

Or at least move to where people are hiring. They usually make an excuse that they have family or something where they are...staying in a place because of family just doesn't work. I had to move to three cities where I didn't know anyone before.

These rural areas are dying economically because people are moving out of them, especially the young, while the older generations still living in them die out.  It's a problem that jobs are harder to come by in these areas because you're essentially forced to live in a city or a suburb to stay afloat in this economy.  A lot of people don't move either because their financial situation doesn't allow them to, or they simply don't want to leave because they have special ties to the land or prefer the small-town life.

The manufacturing and mining jobs aren't returning in the old numbers. Less labor is necessary for making the stuff that we have. We're getting more done with less material  and with more reliance upon mechanical and even robotic manufacture. The only growth industry in many communities is the nursing home business because instead of keeling over dead people are living long enough to go senile or get Parkinsonism.

The 40-hour workweek may be obsolete.  But cutting back hourly pay while working hours shrink ensures more poverty. Sure, the super-rich get more profit  that they can allow to trickle down. The profit just doesn't trickle.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Safe Space? NC Republicans propose politcal party quotas for college professors on: February 21, 2017, 03:09:11 am
I suppose NC Republicans are already planning their new jobs for after the midterms...

Many failed politicians become lobbyists or college teachers.

NC Republican's at the State House are out of control... and I don't think are even representing the thoughts of Republicans in our state.... If so, they are not the Republican's I know!

I am beginning to recognize that many conservatives are coming to the conclusion that Donald Trump is a political disaster. Americans would have had an easier choice between two politicians who have voting records. Without a voting record, Donald Trump was a pig in the poke.

The ethnic and religious bigotry, the failed-but-grandiose business ventures, the contempt for objective truth, and especially the "grab them by the crotch" statement all warned me that he was the worst possible Republican who could be nominated. As a  liberal I  find religious and ethnic bigotry intolerable. The failed-but-grandiose business ventures (sure, I would expect much failure in oil wildcatting, venture capital, or in movie investments, but that goes with the territory) were a warning. It's easier to spot a liar on politics when one disagrees with him on issues than if one shares most of his agenda (I voted for John Edwards in the 2008 Democratic primary) than if one agrees with him on cultural and economic issues -- so on that I must exculpate conservatives for catching on later on Donald Trump before I did.

Nobody could have predicted how chaotic his Administration would be.

I feel some sorrow for what conservatives are going through. Someone likely not their first choice, someone for which many conservatives had misgivings, won.  I can't say "I told you so"; indeed I am surprised at how bad he is. He is so bad that I wish that Mitt Romney had won the 2012 election and effectively shut Donald Trump out of a political role for which he is completely unfit.

We are going to get into some nasty scrapes because of the President's inconsistency and overblown ego. If his handling of the economy is as capricious as that of his handling of foreign policy we can expect a swift and catastrophic end to the Obama bull market.

Liberals and conservatives alike will experience much the same pain from bungling of the economy and foreign policy. The markets and the monetary policy are the same for us all. We may be sending our sons and daughters off to the same wars, and they have just the same chance, whether their parents are liberals or conservative, of returning in body bags.  

C-SPAN gave a new ranking of the Presidents in overall quality, and ranked former President Obama #12. He may have been boring -- thus the nickname "No Drama Obama". He did effective stewardship of the economy, allowing America to get out of an economic meltdown as severe at its outset as the one beginning in 1929. He had no scandals. He did not fight tendencies in legal decisions. He whacked the most dangerous terrorist in American history. He eased America out of a messy war in Iraq. He gave us a flawed Affordable Care Act that Republicans will have a difficult time putting out of operation. He did not get us into new troubles. By 2020 Americans will want a President with similar probity and overall wisdom -- even if that President is a conservative Republican.  
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 21, 2017, 02:33:11 am
http://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/mercyhurst-poll-trumps-approval-rating-in-erie-county-at-41-percent/660441453

Quote
ERIE, Pa. -- Despite Erie County going red during the general election, a new poll shows that some Erie County residents do not approve of President Donald Trump's actions.

The poll, conducted by Mercyhurst University's Center for Applied Politics, found 41 percent of 419 registered voters in the county approve of Trump and 49 percent disapprove.

Sixty percent disapprove of how he is handling relationships with other nations compared to 30 percent that approve.

Fifty-three percent said that Trump's criticism of the media is unfair while 41 percent say it's justified.  
[...]
Despite much of the negativity, 49 percent of people did approve of the way he is handling the economy.

Trump won Erie County, PA 48%-46%. Obama won the County in 2012 by 57%-41%.

In view of recent polls of Iowa and Michigan, I would expect President Trump to be underwater statewide in Pennsylvania.  Iowa was about R+2 against the Gallup poll. Erie County reflects that Donald Trump was able to address the economic misery of the Rust Belt without offering a tangible solution.  Now he needs solutions, and his purported solutions are all religious bigotry and special-interest favors that will do more harm than good.

I expect to see approval polls of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin fairly soon because those states were polled frequently in 2009 and 2013, often by Quinnipiac.

Show me polling for those three states and I will give you the earliest projection of the 2020 Presidential election.

...Handling the economy? It's still the Obama economy.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Democrats who is your favorite republican and republican who is your favoritedem on: February 20, 2017, 11:08:47 pm
Among living Republicans: Bill Milliken, former Governor of Michigan. 
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Safe Space? NC Republicans propose politcal party quotas for college professors on: February 20, 2017, 11:07:10 pm
I wouldn't be opposed to this sort of rule in departments where one's political views may affect the content of the course, but it's not appropriate in say, the math or english departments.

There are already rules -- for example, college professors cannot give more positive grades  for working for one Party than for another., Were I a professor I would have trouble with someone in my class getting credit for working for candidates of the Knights' Party (a KKK front)  but I would have to give credit if such were mandated by the rules of the syllabus. I would hope to give more credit  for a well-written essay pushing conservative ideology than for a sloppily-written essay pushing liberal ideology. Maybe I would have big trouble with someone who wrote an essay wishing that Nazi Germany had defeated the USA and brought the Holocaust here...

It is difficult to separate such studies as economics, sociology, political science, and political history. Teach Shakespeare's Macbeth, and you can hardly avoid discussing the horrors of thug government. I'm guessing that that play was not a favorite in Hitler's Germany, Mussolini's Italy, Stalin's Soviet Union, Satan Hussein's Iraq...

If it becomes employees, then I can imagine a Republican-dominated University allowing Democrats to work as janitors, warehouse workers, clerk-typists, food-service employees, or animal handlers (in the agriculture department)... Such would create a political Apartheid in the universities, and it would be consistent in turning public colleges, the only ones that many students can afford, into propaganda mills.    
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Which country is the largest threat to world peace?" on: February 20, 2017, 10:50:57 pm
Other countries mentioned:

Israel (Morocco, Tunisia, Iraq, Bangladesh)
Iran (USA, Canada, Romania, UK)
China (Japan, Philippines, Vietnam)
Pakistan (Afghanistan, India)
Syria (France, Bulgaria)
Somalia (Kenya)
Russia (Poland)
North Korea (South Korea)
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Safe Space? NC Republicans propose politcal party quotas for college professors on: February 20, 2017, 10:40:00 pm
Does anyone want to bet that ALEC is behind this?
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 20, 2017, 02:05:55 pm
The University of Texas poll is god awful. Doesn't mean the numbers are wrong necessarily, but still.

Texas is simply a tough state to poll.

The state straddles regions, it is ethnically diverse, it has economics from cotton to semiconductors, and it contains areas with of obvious analogues outside of Texas.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 20, 2017, 01:00:54 pm
Trump crashed bigly in today's Rasmussen poll:

Approve: 51% (-4)
Disapprove: 49% (+4)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb20

Must be the credibility gap.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should the MSP airport Charles Lindbergh Terminal be renamed? on: February 20, 2017, 10:17:03 am
He was born in Minnesota.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump administration cooked the books on: February 20, 2017, 10:14:52 am
The only economic growth now possible other than from population growth is at most about 2% in  times other than recovery from recessions. We are at the stage at which buying more stuff isn;t going to bring much more happiness. Simply loading more costs upon helpless customers is inflationary. 
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Populist correctness: the new PC culture of Trump's America and Brexit Britain on: February 20, 2017, 09:53:17 am
Option #1 -- real, and far more objectionable and destructive. 
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 20, 2017, 09:51:57 am
TEXAS



President Trump won Texas by about 9% in November, which was the weakest win by any Republican nominee for President in Texas  in twenty years.

It's positive approval, and if this is where Donald Trump (no poll of Texas is precise) is three years from now, then he wins Texas -- barely. But 'barely winning Texas' indicates that he would be losing states that Republican nominees for president just don't lose anymore. 

We need remember that Texas creates huge problems for pollsters because of its size, diversity, and regional difference. Texas straddles regions and is not a region in itself; it does not have a good analogue elsewhere in the United States. 

ARKANSAS (Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College):

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R):

53% Approve
30% Disapprove

Do you support or oppose President Trump’s travel ban?

61% Support the Trump travel ban
34% Oppose the Trump travel ban

http://talkbusiness.net/2017/02/trump-popularity-unchanged-with-arkansas-voters-hutchinson-job-approval-solid

Favorability:



...If this sort of polling holds up into 2020, then people watching the Presidential election will have a 38-point mystery lasting long into the evening. But Texas would be the difference between about 400 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee and about 440.

Trump should do extremely well in the Mountain South -- that's certain at this point.

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.


24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 20, 2017, 09:15:17 am
This is old (spring 2016), but it may be relevant to how the rest of the world sees President Trump:

25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Tom Reed (R, NY-23) fiercely criticized at town hall on: February 20, 2017, 06:05:29 am
The PVI of this district is kind of misleading, it's a combination of heavily Republican rural areas that probably swung toward Trump along with Ithaca. Ithaca prevents it from being too Republican but the district is heavily polarized and there's not a whole lot a Democrat could gain in Ithaca. Of course one possibility is Ithaca turnout surges and rural turnout craters, very likely in a bad Trump midterm.

...or that Republican support in rural areas craters.

Does anyone think that Donald Trump is any more knowledgeable about agricultural issues than he is about defense or foreign policy?  

2017 is beginning to look like another "Year Without a Winter"... see also 2012, when the usual blizzards that leave behind heavy snows that blanket the Corn Belt  and protect the ground water while melting late in the spring just in time to allow copious soil moisture for germinating grain crops. Although summer 2012 was not really dry, the corn crop was much below average. I can imagine southern Michigan looking much like the northern San Joaquin Valley of California with yellowed laws (which also reduced our lawn mowing). But streams were low, suggesting a low water table.

Global warming cause poor crop yields and will hit farmers in their bank accounts, and what has usually been a reliable constituency for Republicans could turn on the GOP.    



My district (MI-07, a declining-industrial district with agriculture returning to the importance that it once had) would be a Democratic takeover. This is the Corn Belt.

I'm thinking of some rural districts in Iowa, southern Wisconsin and Michigan, and northern Illinois and Indiana, and northwestern Ohio that would become vulnerable.  

Were I running on a Democratic ticket for Representative (state of federal) I would take on global warming for its effect upon agriculture.

Don't like the blizzards? There's a solution for you. It's a seven-letter word that begins in F and ends in A. We really do need our grain crops, and they need some winter blizzards.  
How long would you say it would take for the rurals to turn against the GOP if this is the case, and what districts would have the largest swings from such a backlash?
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