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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: July 26, 2016, 09:42:01 pm
Missouri, SurveyUSA, KSDK-TV (NBC-5, St. Louis)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: July 26, 2016, 09:36:13 pm
I will start over with a different set of criteria for leads.  A hint: I will distinguish leads with 45% or more against  leads with less than 45%.  As the election approaches, a lead of 47-43, let alone 47-35, means much more than does a lead of 44-40. Polls will be extremely volatile during the Conventions. I am unsure of whether I will change the map for the three-way race.

I will likely lock this thread after Convention-time polls quit coming in.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Indiana Trump +14: Tarrance Group (July 20-21) on: July 26, 2016, 09:23:19 pm
Republican pollster for one of the Republican gubernatorial candidates looking to fill Pence's spot.

I have no doubt that Trump/Pence lead in Indiana, but to be taken with the appropriate grains of salt.

Barring a collapse, Trump is going to win Indiana, most likely in the high single digits.

Partisan pollster with an agenda. DO. NOT. USE.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020: President Trump vs. Andrew Cuomo on: July 26, 2016, 12:29:05 pm



Donald Trump is Jimmy Carter without the caution, wisdom, integrity, and basic decency. Whoops? Those are Carter's virtues as President!

The economy is in freefall, riots are commonplace, and the President has no clue that he is at fault for a surge in anti-American terrorism and diplomatic calamities.

Loses like Carter in 1980.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Who will take up Trump's populist mantra in 2020? on: July 26, 2016, 12:19:12 pm
Nobody. The Republican Establishment will simply go back to its old cheap labor, environmentally-ravaging, tax-cuts-for the rich agenda that creates great profits for elites and misery for everyone else.  The anti-intellectualism will remain.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will West Virginia go back to the Democrats? on: July 26, 2016, 12:15:27 pm
The Democrats really messed up in West Virginia. Democrats could win West Virginia so long as the United Mine Workers could deliver the vote to any non-extremist Democrat (West Virginia was a horrible state for McGovern in 1972). Democrats failed to invest in education, public health (the UMW has a good health-care plan, and non-miners can buy into it)  and infrastructure to prepare West Virginia for the inevitable end of the economic basis of the Democrats' hold of the state.  The coal seams were going to eventually be worked out, and such would mean mass layoffs of coal miners. The UMW (really a very good union) shriveled.

West Virginia is one of the poorest states in the Union even if it is very white. The state has little legacy of a plantation society, so it does not have a legacy of poor blacks who still hurt from Jim Crow. (In fact, West Virginia seceded from Virginia during the Civil War because its people didn't want to die to defend slavery). West Virginia is toward the bottom in education and public health. It has horrible roads. Its old economic base of coal is all but gone. Democrats were around during that decline, and they got the fault for that. Getting pork-barrel spending from Democrats when Robert Byrd was Senator? Its Republican pols can get that with Republican pols now.

Democrats should have been pushing tourism (the state is beautiful) that includes hunting and fishing... but they sat on their hands and assumed that tradition would keep West Virginia Democratic.

One test of how partisan a state is is whether it votes for losers in blow-out or near-blowout elections. West Virginia voted for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988. Although it voted for Bill Clinton twice, that may be the last time that West Virginia votes for a Democratic nominee for President. The state was a blow-out loss for Obama in 2008 in a near-landslide for Obama where he won.

Maybe Barack Obama is seen in the Mountain and Deep South much like McGovern in 1972... but Barack Obama is no extremist. He's very much a conservative on crime and drugs. His foreign policy is basically what Ronald Reagan got away with, so that is not radical.  Barack Obama could have won the West Virginia of the 1980s  and 1990s -- maybe as a more astute politician than Al Gore he might have won a 2000 version of West Virginia. But that's as far as it goes. If Obama couldn't win West Virginia in 2008 no Democrat can today.

The UMW is so weak now that the the West Virginia state legislature enacted a Right to Work (for starvation wages) law.

I can't see what problems the GOP can solve in West Virginia except to keep expectations low as a Third World community in a First World country. Unlike Michigan, which has a solid agricultural sector that can tide the state through as the auto industry declines, West Virginia is a poor state for agriculture. West Virginia has poor K-12 education and no colleges that get respect outside of West Virginia, so it won't attract high technology. Right-to-Work (for starvation-level wages) laws may be good for drawing in sweat-shop employers, but the state has awful highways. Republicans love lax environmental regulation, but put dirty industry in West Virginia's mountainous terrain and the state will be an environmental catastrophe due in part to its hot, humid summers.

Democrats aren't making a comeback in West Virginia for a very long time.  West Virginia projects to be one of the worst states for Hillary Clinton. 
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ramussen/KNTV: Nevada - Trump +5 on: July 25, 2016, 11:56:33 pm
Suspect crosstabs, suspect poll.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Landmark Communications/WSB-TV: Georgia - Trump + 2 on: July 25, 2016, 07:21:29 pm
Best news of the day!  Perhaps we can recreate 1992 (when Bill won in Georgia by 13000 votes) all over again.

Do you think the Atlanta burbs are winnable this time because that's the route to a Dem upset. Usually the Atlanta burbs are much more RW than the burbs in Northern cities, but there are a lot of college-educated GHWB style Repubs there

This also applies to college-educated white suburbanites in Texas, too: Donald Trump may be offending their sensibilities as John McCain and Mitt Romney didn't. There is much more room for suburban white voters in greater Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta to trend Democratic than those of Greater Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, or San Francisco.  

Whether white educated people in greater Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston are the anomaly of 2008 and 2012 or the norm to which America will revert is much to be decided this year.

Georgia is a legitimate swing state and Texas is on the fringe of competitiveness this year.  

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: July 25, 2016, 07:07:12 pm
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/trump-gets-modest-boost-in-ohio-after-convention.html

Ohio, PPP:

Trump: 42
Clinton: 39
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2


Trump: 45
Clinton: 45

Tie in a binary race, not changing the binary map in the least.  

This poll looks legitimate, and it suggests that Georgia is a swing state:

Georgia, WSB-TV, ABC-2 Atlanta, Landmarke Communications:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








[/quote]
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% on: July 25, 2016, 09:20:58 am
The story says that post-convention, Clinton actually gained among white college grads, while Trump made big gains among white non-college grads:

Quote
The poll also reflects a sharpening of the education divide among whites that has been prevalent throughout the campaign. Among white voters with college degrees, Clinton actually gained ground compared with pre-convention results, going from an even 40% to 40% split to a 44% to 39% edge over Trump. That while Trump expanded his lead with white voters who do not hold a college degree from a 51% to 31% lead before the convention to a 62% to 23% lead now.


Maybe non-college white people were watching the Roman circus spectacle, and others were watching something else.

The question: will the non-college whites vote heavily in November?

College-educated whites vote, and they are more likely to change the minds of white people with no college degree to not vote for Trump than non-college-educated people are likely to convince college-educated whites to vote for Trump. College-educated people are generally much more capable of persuading people than are those who did not attend college.  

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: July 24, 2016, 08:04:39 am
Alabama, two-way race. Johnson irrelevant if Trump is over 50%.

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/

Georgia, WSB-TV (ABC-2, Atlanta), rk Communications:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3

Georgia is a legitimate swing state this year.

Missouri may not be:

Missouri, SurveyUSA, KSDK-TV (NBC-5, St. Louis)




Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Three-way race:





Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: July 24, 2016, 08:01:35 am
Alabama, which will likely be one of Trump's best states:

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/

Georgia:

Warnings:

1. inconsistent with tracking polls that show Donald Trump tied with or leading Hillary Clinton immediately after the Reactionary National Convention.

2. One-point lead for either, so far from decisive. Both Trump and Clinton will get at least 46% of the vote in Georgia in a binary election.

3. Inconsistent with polls that generally show Hillary Clinton behind Donald Trump in Georgia.

4. Does not include Johnson.

5. Unfamiliar pollster.

Addendum: this is a partisan pollster.


http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/25/georgia-democrats-polling-shows-state-is-in-play-in-november/

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Undecided 16

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the Clinton/Kaine Logo? on: July 24, 2016, 07:51:33 am
Bland, but so what anyway?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Hillary make a pledge to serve only one term? on: July 24, 2016, 05:38:03 am
If there is some question of her mental or physical health.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Mom of US Amb Stevens (Benghazi) asks Trump/GOP to stop on: July 24, 2016, 05:35:31 am
She can make that judgment.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's nomination is the first time US politics has left me truly afraid on: July 24, 2016, 05:31:06 am
I don't always agree with Mr. Klein (a very smart and informed liberal), e.g., his odes of joy about Obamacare, but I do as to this piece - each and every word. Pity that it was not complete. Hey Ezra, why did you skip over that Trump has little or no respect for the rule of law, and his bellicosity might get us into wars, in particular a trade war, but even more worrisome, wars where blood is spilled (except with respect to his favorite dictators of course)?

I have my idea of what it takes to be President. Having a long and distinguished career in public office isn't enough. Look at James Buchanan, who was likely far past prime. Theodore Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy are two of the youngest Presidents ever, and they are decidedly above average.


I look at experience appropriate for the age, typically success in winning high office.; intellectual preparation (most Presidents are attorneys by training, and not college professors, and not such smart people as research scientists, engineers, physicians, architects, dentists, or accountants; character; integrity; caution; solid judgment; apt temperament; and general decency.  A President who lacks any of those will have trouble as President; luck alone will not make one an effective President.  Just think of Richard Nixon, who had faults of basic decency.

Ignore whether one agrees with him on his agenda, and Barack Obama looks very Presidential. None of those characteristics describes Donald Trump well.   

Quote
Oh, he skipped those two cause they don't apply to Trump. In fact, it is far more likely Hillary will start new wars because of her bellicosity. And it's not even disputed that she has little or no respect for the rule of law.

Possible.


Quote
As opposed to what we've had for the last 20 years? Frankly, if the people with all the wonderful "qualifications" were doing a halfway decent job, maybe Trump wouldn't have been able to capture the nomination. If voters are ticked off enough to go with a non-politician, there's probably a reason, don't you think? If you need to be afraid of something, why not be afraid that we continue down the wrong path? That's the bigger concern, at least from my perspective...

That's Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.

Bill Clinton is going to seem to have had one of the less-eventful two-term Presidencies. George W. Bush will be seen as awful, telescoping the disastrous Presidencies of Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover into two full terms. Barack Obama? He is going to look very good in contrast to Hillary Clinton, let alone Donald Trump.

...If we were going to have a Republican as President between 2001 and 2009, then why could we have not had Richard Lugar, George Voinovich, or John Warner instead of you-know-who?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George Takei: He Must Be Defeated (Video) on: July 22, 2016, 12:07:23 pm
As much as I detest Donald Trump, I can't say I like it when people use the "vote for Hillary because Trump is terrible" line. It just feeds into the idea that you have to hold your nose to vote for her and no TRUE PROGRESSIVETM would ever vote for her under any other circumstances. And as much as we need every vote we can get, that's a surefire way to hurt turnout and down-ballot races.

Stay the course.

Hillary Clinton intends to keep up the good work of Barack Obama. The question is whether she is like the Obama of 2009-2010 who has two cooperating Houses of Congress, the Barack Obama of 2011-2014 who had a split Congress, or the Obama of 2015-2016 with a hostile Congress  with both Houses resisting everything that the President wants.

Republicans need to recognize that Barack Obama is an effective president under the circumstances before they can recover from what could well be a wave election to their detriment. They need start by recognizing that Obama and Reagan have nearly-identical foreign policies (Obama does what Ronald Reagan got away with, which is altogether good).

18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 22, 2016, 11:55:17 am
I saw the transcript and did not hear the speech.  I prefer reading the transcript because I can slow and hasten my reading. Besides, I am a rapid reader. Reading is more efficient for me than is listening to speech.

IT WAS HIDEOUS. 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 22, 2016, 10:51:15 am
I saw it as a transcript and did not listen to the speech myself. It was hideous.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 22, 2016, 10:50:10 am
Also - since Trump is lying about crime stats... apparently now those who dare present actual evidence that counters Trump's fear-mongering are not to be trusted.

It's outright insanity - it's a pity this lot didn't get into Scientology, they'd be a much smaller risk to the country and the world.

But Barack Obama, the worst leader that we could possibly have because he is a ******, is sympathetic to crime and criminal because he is a ******. Or so goes the racist argument. If anything, middle-class blacks and middle-class whites have a similar disdain for crime. Their experiences with crime are becoming parallel if different because of the differences between black and white criminal cultures.

White people who have a visceral and exaggerated fear of crime (especially by minorities that they rarely meet) will vote for Donald Trump.

Let's start with a basic reality about race and drugs. White people use more and worse drugs than do blacks; they simply get away with those drugs longer before they get caught because the law enforcement is stretched too thin in rural America. Rural white America has had epidemics of meth, oxycodone, and now heroin.  

As with most middle-class blacks, President Obama is hostile to drugs and violent crime, and such shows in his policies. He has fostered a climate of hostility toward white dopers. Turnabout is fair play.

In his campaign literature directed at farmers in 2008, Senator Obama suggested solutions for controlling the theft of anhydrous ammonia from farmers for the production of meth. What was happening? Meth makers were opening the spigots for anhydrous ammonia, taking the ammonia that they could use, and forgetting to turn off the spigot. Anhydrous ammonia continued to leak and gravitate to low-lying areas. If those low-lying areas were cattle pastures, cattle got killed. Such is big losses for farmers.

White dopers have good cause to oppose President Obama. It's amazing that where one has large white populations and high rates of death by opiate overdoses, President Obama has done badly in the Presidential elections.  
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win in a landslide? on: July 22, 2016, 10:27:14 am
No. He can endure a landslide loss.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH: Suffolk University: Tie, or Clinton+4 on: July 22, 2016, 10:24:20 am
PPP will also poll OH this weekend.

In short, we shall see whether Donald Trump has moved potential voters as he must to win Ohio. He absolutely must win Ohio to have a chance. 
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH WMUR: Clinton+2 (tied 4/way) - big gender gap on: July 22, 2016, 10:23:00 am
Kerry won NH and still lost the election. 
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: July 21, 2016, 06:32:53 pm


Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4, VA 4

Add or replace: NH 5, OH 1

Stein strength map (why not?)



25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: July 21, 2016, 06:19:55 pm
Ohio, Suffolk.

44-44 Clinton/Trump

New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9)

43-39-5-1 Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein

2-way
Hillary Clinton (D): 39%
Donald Trump (R): 37%

4-way
Hillary Clinton (D): 37%
Donald Trump (R): 37%
Johnson 10%
Stein 5%

Clinton absolutely crushes Trump among NH women (47%-26%). He leads 48%-31% among men, a gender gap of 38 points!

B-b-b-but I thought a Trump/Pence ticket could appeal to White NH women?!

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_summer_presrace072116.pdf

Considering that the Republicans are monopolizing the coverage this week, this is very good for Hillary Clinton.

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear





Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:





Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


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