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February 10, 2016, 11:35:44 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Florida Southern College: Clinton trails Rubio/Bush narrowly, beats Trump on: Today at 06:30:35 pm
A Favorite Son is usually worth 5% to 10% in a Presidential election. So if Bush or Rubio barely win Florida, they likely lose Ohio (typically the closest analogue to Florida without a Favorite Son) decisively.

That of course assumes that the state holds the Favorite Son in strong regard.

Can you even say Bush will have a 5-10% "favorite son" factor in Florida? He hasn't been on the ballot for 14 years.

I'm guessing. I have no idea how strong the effect is.

When I see him doing marginally no better in Florida against Trump, Cruz, or Kasich than he does against one of those in a state in which he has no connection (let us say Pennsylvania).

The only instance in which I expect the Favorite Son effect to be of no help is when the pol has been rejected in his own State (example: Santorum in Pennsylvania).
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: Today at 03:49:03 pm
Next PPP polls will be from North Carolina and South Carolina.

Other predictable polls:

The participating states include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming Republican caucuses.

-- Wikipedia.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Siena: Trump fares worst against Clinton and Sanders on: Today at 08:44:30 am
Suppose that instead of New York you see something like this:

INDIANA

Cruz 49 Sanders 44
Cruz 61 Clinton 33

We know how Indiana goes. Everything must go right for the Democrat for the Democrat to have a chance of winning Indiana, much as everything must go right for the Republican for the Republican to have a chance of winning New York.

But what else could we conclude? Although neither Clinton nor Sanders has a chance of winning Indiana, Sanders is close enough in Indiana that the Indiana poll suggests that he is going to win a bunch of states that the Republican must win. Indiana has some of the same constituencies as do neighboring states. Indiana is simply more rural with few large suburbs.  It has Indianapolis, South Bend-Elkhart, Gary-Hammond, Fort Wayne, Evansville, and lots of cornfields and hill country.

(An aside: the highly-successful TV comedy Parks and Recreation is set in a fictional Indiana city with an upscale suburban character, only one Indiana community in any way resembles that description. Mishawaka somewhat fits that description.  The city is small enough that its name does not pass my spell-checker).

If more of Indiana were like "Pawnee", then Democrats would have about as much of a chance in Indiana as they have in Ohio.

Basically,  

INDIANA

Cruz 49 Sanders 44
Cruz 61 Clinton 33

suggests that although Cruz will win Indiana should he face Sanders he will have a tough time winning Ohio, which is simply more urban and suburban.   But this also says that he is doing well enough in places like the fictional "Pawnee" or the real Mishawaka that he will do well enough in Ohio to win and make Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin genuine contests should he face Clinton.

It's possible to draw conclusions about a national race from "sure things". Hillary Clinton
looks capable of losing a close election. Bernie Sanders now looks very strong.  Winners win sure-win states by wide margins and make the sure-loss states closer than they otherwise would be.  Losers win sure-win states by narrower-than-usual margins and lose sure-loss states by larger-than-usual margins. A Democrat winning New York by 20% is a usual winner in the national contest. A Democrat winning New York by 15% will lose the national contest.
 
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did you like IA or NH better? on: February 09, 2016, 10:37:31 pm
New Hampshire. Caucuses are for the most partisan, most active members of the respective Parties.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the establishment support Kasich now? on: February 09, 2016, 10:36:19 pm
Jeb could still be the Establishment choice. I still think that Cruz or Trump wins the nomination.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So how exactly did the results tonight change anything? on: February 09, 2016, 10:34:38 pm
Republicans:

1. Jeb Bush survives to campaign again after ending up in a near-tie for third place.

2. John Kasich becomes practically as well as theoretically relevant.

3. Ted Cruz slips decisively, even if temporarily. (Maybe he is simply a poor match for New Hampshire).

4. Marco Rubio leaves huge doubts about himself.   

5. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are no longer relevant.   

Democrats:

1. Hillary Clinton lost in a landslide. She has acted like a machine-boss politician, which is no longer acceptable to the mainstream of the Democratic Party. She cleans up her act or she has one of the severest meltdowns after a primary.

2. We shall see how Bernie Sanders does in the Southern states on Super Tuesday among voters (blacks) that Hillary Clinton has thought hers.

3. Democrats have shown that they can nominate a non-Christian as President. Barack Obama does not count, Republicans!
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: February 09, 2016, 10:22:39 pm
I want to dump someone for Kasich in binary polls. Whom?

Fiorina and Carson

Done!

Will someone please poll Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania!



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: February 09, 2016, 10:13:08 pm

Binary match-ups involving Bernie Sanders. The near-tie between Cruz and Bush compels me to keep Jeb in view, though.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

Sanders 57%
Trump 34%

Sanders 56%
Cruz 33%

Sanders 55%
Rubio 37%

Sanders 57%
Christie 34%

Sanders 54%
Kasich 33%

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz



(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Siena: Trump fares worst against Clinton and Sanders on: February 09, 2016, 07:03:13 pm
New York, Presidential results



2012 Obama 63 Romney 35
2008 Obama 63 McCain 38
2004 Kerry 58 Bush 40
2000 Gore 60 Bush 35
1996 Clinton 59 Dole 31 Perot 8
1992 Clinton 43 Bush 37 Perot 19
1988 Dukakis 52 Bush 48

1984 Reagan 54 Mondale 46
1980 Reagan 47 Carter 44 Anderson 8

1976 Carter 52 Ford 47



In how many other states did McCain outperform Romney?  Seems like NY is still getting more Democratic at an alarming rate.


A Democratic nominee needs to win New York with at least 60% of the popular vote to be likely to win nationwide.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll on: February 09, 2016, 06:59:01 pm
This is old stuff about Rubio -- but he was heavily entangled in the defense of the bad for-profit schools that encouraged prospective students to take out huge loans for vastly-overpriced educational programs with the federal government guaranteeing to collect the funds for the education (even if the educational results were abject failure) from the student ripped off.

The student has huge debt and no marketable skill.

(from Bloomberg, roughly a year ago)

"While I commend the Department's desire to protect our nation's students from fraudulent and malicious activity by any institution of higher education, regardless of tax status, I believe the Department can and should demonstrate leniency as long as Corinthian Colleges, Inc. continues to expeditiously and earnestly cooperate by providing the documents requested."

Founded in 1995 by five for-profit education operators, the company once ran more than 100 campuses across the country, including in Rubio's home state of Florida. (He described his letter as written on behalf of his constituents.) In February, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced $480 million in debt relief for students it deemed were "harmed by Corinthian's predatory lending scheme."

Mitchell responded to Rubio on April 2, explaining that the federal investigation found "systemic deficiencies" in the company's operations and mentioned that the organization had "admitted to falsifying placement rates and/or grade and attendance records at various institutions."

....

"Senator Rubio felt it was important to protect the thousands of students in Florida from being punished and having their educations disrupted while the investigation was underway," Rubio spokeswoman Brooke Sammon told Bloomberg Politics in a statement. "His priority has always been to improve access to higher education options and increase transparency ‎in higher education."

Corinthian Colleges contributed $5,000 to Rubio's Reclaim America PAC during the 2014 election cycle, according to the Center For Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan organization that tracks political donations.

....

Rubio is a noted supporter of "alternative" forms of higher education, describing them in various speeches and statements as a way to help middle class Americans deal with rising tuition costs in an era where college degrees are increasingly vital to success. In 2014, he introduced legislation to encourage federal agencies to hire people with "alternative educational experience." As recently as two days ago, Rubio tweeted about his education proposals. Ironically, his message mirrored that of Corinthian's critics.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/ar...thian-colleges

(Note: the Obama Administration cut off access to federal student loans to these schools, effectively bankrupting the scam  artists.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Florida Southern College: Clinton trails Rubio/Bush narrowly, beats Trump on: February 09, 2016, 06:50:33 pm
A Favorite Son is usually worth 5% to 10% in a Presidential election. So if Bush or Rubio barely win Florida, he likely loses Ohio (typically the closest analogue to Florida without a Favorite Son) decisively.

That of course assumes that the state holds the Favorite Son in strong regard.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Siena: Trump fares worst against Clinton and Sanders on: February 09, 2016, 06:56:52 am
New York, Presidential results



2012 Obama 63 Romney 35
2008 Obama 63 McCain 38
2004 Kerry 58 Bush 40
2000 Gore 60 Bush 35
1996 Clinton 59 Dole 31 Perot 8
1992 Clinton 43 Bush 37 Perot 19
1988 Dukakis 52 Bush 48

1984 Reagan 54 Mondale 46
1980 Reagan 47 Carter 44 Anderson 8

1976 Carter 52 Ford 47

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Siena: Trump fares worst against Clinton and Sanders on: February 08, 2016, 11:43:10 pm
Damn Kasich gets massacred in NY big time.

It's New York.

More relevant to John Kasich is how he does in winning delegates. It is possible to win a nomination by winning heavily in primaries and caucuses that one has no chance of winning in the general election.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: February 08, 2016, 05:55:26 pm
I want to dump someone for Kasich in binary polls. Whom? I see a surge in polling for him in Republican primaries. Maybe this weekend, after the New Hampshire primaries induce someone to abandon a quixotic quest of questionable quality.

 
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: February 08, 2016, 05:03:40 pm
Siena University, New York:

Clinton 57, Rubio 37
Clinton 57, Cruz 34
Clinton 57, TRUMP 32
Clinton 57, Bush 33
Clinton 55, Kasich 31
Clinton 56, Christie 36


https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

Carson and Fiorina are not taken seriously. Has either dropped out?



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Florida Southern College: Clinton trails Rubio/Bush narrowly, beats Trump on: February 08, 2016, 04:57:46 pm
Dreadful performance by Donald Trump, weak performances for what should be Favorite Sons.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread Head-to-Heads on: February 07, 2016, 08:13:50 pm
I used only the latter (after the Iowa Caucuses) poll for my general map.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IL-The Illinois Observer poll: Clinton leads Trump by 9, but well below 50% on: February 06, 2016, 11:46:09 pm
I actually want to see a real poll of Illinois, including non-Trump candidates

There are plenty of Illinois media. Illinois has a well-watched US Senate race.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: February 06, 2016, 11:44:38 pm
New York, Siena.

Clinton 57, Rubio 37
Clinton 57, Cruz 34
Clinton 57, TRUMP 32
Clinton 57, Bush 33
Clinton 55, Kasich 31
Clinton 56, Christie 36

Sanders 56, Rubio 34
Sanders 60, Cruz 30
Sanders 63, TRUMP 30
Sanders 61, Bush 30
Sanders 59, Kasich 29
Sanders 58, Christie 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf


Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush



Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson



Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)






Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: February 06, 2016, 11:40:18 pm
New Hampshire: UNH, U-Massachusetts at Lowell

 conducted from 2/2/2016-2/4/2016 Here are the outdated polls released yesterday first.
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-5%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230845.pdf

Clinton v Trump:
Clinton 44%
Trump 40%

Clinton v Cruz:
Clinton 44%
Cruz 41%

Clinton v Rubio:
Rubio 44%
Clinton 41%



And here are the matchups from the poll conducted 2/3/2016-2/5/2016.
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-6%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230852.pdf

Clinton v Trump:
Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump 39% (-1)

Clinton v Cruz:
Clinton 46% (+2)
Cruz 39% (-2)

Clinton v Rubio:
Rubio 43% (-1)
Clinton 42% (+1)



The newer polls are more valid. An event (the Iowa caucuses) so dictates.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll on: February 05, 2016, 02:05:24 pm
Rubio would be destroyed in the general one his nasty past got out, so Clinton would have nothing to worry about.

Yawn. Attacks on his "past" would only backfire...

Marco Rubio -- the Republican analogue to Mike Dukakis as a pol.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Roanoke: Sanders mops the floor with GOPers, Clinton only ties Rubio/Cruz on: February 04, 2016, 03:19:31 pm
Florida is about even. Kansas is a very strong R state. Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, Houston, and the Lower Rio Grande Valley, and Dallas vote as if big cities in Florida.  The rest of Texas is rather strong R.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Roanoke: Sanders mops the floor with GOPers, Clinton only ties Rubio/Cruz on: February 04, 2016, 02:44:27 pm
GOP disaster. Republicans haven't won the Presidency without Virginia since 1928. Democrats can win without it (1960, 1976, 1992, 1996).

I'm sorry, this is incredibly ignorant.  The three serious Republican contenders for the nomination all have unusually strong appeal to the West or Midwest and virtually no appeal to the federal employees/contractors with graduate degrees who swing elections in Virginia.

Just look at the Wisconsin polls.

Michigan is very different from Virginia in its politics. It is basically Minnesota or Wisconsin with Detroit attached instead of Milwaukee or the Twin Cities. Virginia is now basically Arkansas grafted onto Connecticut.

Want another state? Texas is basically Kansas grafted onto Florida.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Roanoke: Sanders mops the floor with GOPers, Clinton only ties Rubio/Cruz on: February 04, 2016, 12:59:20 pm
GOP disaster. Republicans haven't won the Presidency without Virginia since 1928. Democrats can win without it (1960, 1976, 1992, 1996).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: February 04, 2016, 12:53:19 pm
VIRGINIA

Clinton leads Trump; tied with Cruz, Rubio; but Virginians "feel the Bern" (at least for now)

Potential Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump (52%-35%) and is statistically tied with Republican hopefuls Ted Cruz (45%-41%) and Marco Rubio (46%-43%), according to The Roanoke College Poll. Democratic contender Bernie Sanders leads all three Republican front-runners, including Trump (55%-33%), Cruz (49%-37%) and Rubio (48%-38%).

The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 524 likely voters in Virginia between January 18 and January 26 and has a margin of error of +4.3 percent.

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_feb_2016_presidential_politics

No Republican nominee has won the Presidency since 1924 without Virginia.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
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