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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: Today at 02:45:58 pm
Do you get the idea that he is going to be a very active ex-President?
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: Today at 02:43:17 pm
Here's the first poll of a state that in fact voted for Donald Trump (if not by much) -- North Carolina. PPP, as if you are surprised.

January 13-16, 2017
Survey of 953 North Carolina voters

North Carolina Survey Results

Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance?

 50% Approve
..........................................................
 47% Disapprove
......................................................
  4% Not sure
..........................................................
Q2
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?

 44% Favorable
........................................................
 49% Unfavorable
....................................................
  6%  Not sure
....................................................

In other polling news... North Carolinians do not expect Donald Trump to be as good a President as Barack Obama; they trust the intelligence services more than they trust Donald Trump; and they don't look sympathetically upon Russian President Vladimir Putin. They want the Affordable Care Act reformed and strengthened -- not scrapped.

(If you are wondering about Q -- it's polling New York City this week, so any results for the Big Apple will be interesting -- if irrelevant).


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_11817.pdf
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama Commutes Bulk of Chelsea Manning’s Sentence on: Today at 09:34:47 am
Chelsea Manning is crazy anyway. I wonder if he will pardon Leonard Peltier and Mumia Abu-Jamal?

Both are murderers. That makes a huge difference.

President Obama might have the authority to pardon Peltier, who is a federal offender (murder of federal law enforcement officials) but not Mumia, whose offense was killing a city cop in Pennsylvania . The President has no authority to pardon someone incarcerated under state law.  
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The president-elect's infrastructure plan: handouts to his billionaire buddies on: Today at 09:29:23 am

Makes me wonder why anyone other than the rich EVER votes Republican. Theirs is the same old story. Rob from the poor and give to the rich. Yawn.
The rich are the ones who pay the taxes to begin with.

The rich are the ones who grab the wealth and keep it.The biggest sources of wealth come from owning huge tracts of farmland (the feudal way), gouging the customer, keeping workers overworked and underpaid, and getting huge breaks from the government.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WH considering ending press briefings, and not allowing media on WH grounds on: Today at 09:22:05 am
Not surprised.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-white-house-reporters_us_587b82e5e4b0e58057ff43a5

And you know, this is one thing I don't mind. It's not an attack on freedom of the press. It's stripping away their long-held privileges. Hopefully it makes them do real investigative journalism again.

And they will, as they will be looking for corruption, incompetence, and consequences of an extreme agenda. Such does not requite schmoozing with the President. Obama was erudite and engaging enough that he diverted journalists from doing their job. The ideal journalist might be a CPA or a historian...

  
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: Today at 09:16:18 am
He is on the same level as Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton were at the end of their presidencies. Somewhat surprising to see, but at least many are coming around to give the President the accolades he deserves.

I think that we now see the secret of the next Democratic President: be as much like Barack Obama in character and agenda as possible. Oh yes -- and expect Donald Trump and the Republican-dominated Congress to foul up badly.

If there is one fault with Barack Obama, it is that Donald Trump follows. Except for fornicating, Donald Trump has little in common with JFK.

...The parallel to Eisenhower is fairly good.  Eisenhower had little agenda, and Obama had a much bigger one. Congress went along with Ike, but frustrated Obama enough that their levels of achievement as President were about the same. The curricula vitae could hardly be more different, but both show similar temperaments.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: Today at 09:07:52 am
New poll from Monmouth U, whose reputation probably took the largest hit among pollsters, conducted from 1/12 - 1/15:

34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable, 20% No opinion (who are these people?!?)

The margin is the same as for those pollsters that give Trump favorability around 40%... that negative margin suggests a rough start for the President-Elect.

The only good thing that I can say of it is that if he is going to be down that much, then it had better be early. Can he convince Americans that Corporate America can do more good for them than anyone else, that only the harshest discipline of brutal management and the sting of poverty can force people out of their inherent laziness, and that vicarious delight in the ostentatious display of success by America's 'winners' can bring true happiness? Can his real-estate huckster and reality-TV model of management work well for Americans?

I'd rather watch old movies. Wouldn't you?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1/17/17 CNN ORC Poll: Trump Approval at 40% on: Today at 08:59:36 am
okay, a couple of things.

One, national polls were only off by 2-3 percentage points. State polls were terrible in WI/MI/PA, states where there wasn't much polling in the final days of the election. So we can trust approval rating polls to be accurate.

Two, yeah this is bad for a president-elect. 40% approvals or lower by 2018 and the midterms will be a bloodbath.

Three, it's not guaranteed to be this bad for Trump forever. He could see higher approvals as time passes.

He will need miracles.

State polls were off badly for the three surprising states that Trump won.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were polled frequently, but not often enough at the end.

Trump got a surge in the last few days of the campaign. Polls usually do not show sudden changes. 
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 17, 2017, 03:17:04 pm
And here we go again! The Trumpster just tweeted what I previously predicted/joked:

Quote from: @realdonaldtrump
The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before.
Link


The orange clown just never grows up. #LOLDrumpf


Again, except for having nice clothes and never being short of cash, Donald Trump reminds me of the semi-literate juvenile delinquents that I knew all too well -- and did everything possible to avoid -- when I was in middle school and high school. The juvenile delinquents either grew up  and took  honest blue-collar jobs (Hooray!) or failed to grow up and ended up in prison for theft or violent crime. 

Nobody has compelled Donald Trump to grow up. He has been exempt from the humiliating (and often humanizing) realities that anyone not born with a silver spoon in his mouth ends up having to endure.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Are the anti-Hillary leftists happy now? on: January 17, 2017, 03:10:37 pm
The problem was that the Republicans nominated a sick joke. Donald Trump was a dreadful candidate for President, and on occasion, sick jokes win elections.  We are safest when we have two strong candidates against each other.

On Friday -- India becomes the most powerful country in the Free World, and Switzerland becomes the oldest democracy. Thank you, Trump voters.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 17, 2017, 03:06:01 pm
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
What wonderful times we live in!

I don't trust an impetuous fool with the red button -- or my civil liberties.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The ideology of the next Republican nominee for president on: January 17, 2017, 02:57:30 pm
"Suffer for owners and bosses, but always have faith in God, for you shall get pie in the sky when you die".
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Counter Sting - O'Keefe caught paying people to violently protest Trump on: January 17, 2017, 02:50:35 pm
We Americans are entering strange, uncharted waters, at least for ourselves and without a map (let alone GPS). Other nations have gone with leaders like Donald Trump,  and such has usually been hideous.

This fellow is about as trustworthy as David DuKKKe.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 17, 2017, 02:44:24 pm
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump’s healthcare plan will offer ‘insurance for everybody’: report on: January 17, 2017, 12:54:20 am
Republicans had their chances to ensure better funding of Obamacare with heavy 'sin' taxes on alcohol and tobacco. they could have allowed weight to be a factor in determining insurance rates (obesity contributes to higher costs of health care). They could have pushed legislation that would take sweets, sodas, and snacks off SNAP eligibility because such things contribute to obesity. 

They bet everything on the failure of Obamacare... and they will bet everything on trying to kill it.   
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DisruptJ20 on: January 17, 2017, 12:47:40 am
You don't have to believe James O'Keefe (I don't) to believe that the protesters will behave like the violent little Gestapo thugs they are. But any cars they burn, storefronts they smash, or skulls they crack ironically entrenches the man they're trying to stop.

Gestapo? First of all, the Gestapo invariably took the side of the state, rarely participated in riots (except Kristallnacht), smashed storefront windows only of "Jewish" businesses, and generally did not torch cars -- especially after the Nazis outlawed Jewish ownership of automobiles. They generally did their beatings away from any semblance of public scrutiny.

So it's really simple, liberals -- take photos or video of the violent deeds and give the photos to the relevant police or prosecuting attorneys. Carrying a placard that deprecates Donald Trump is a legitimate act of free expression. Torching a car, assaulting a bystander, or smashing a storefront window during a peaceful demonstration is a criminal act of rioting .

17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DisruptJ20 on: January 17, 2017, 12:36:21 am
Nobody in their right mind takes O'Keefe seriously.

But people in their Right (wing) mind often do.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: He's had enough of it. on: January 16, 2017, 08:18:45 am
Why is this idiocy metasticizing as of late?

It has been metastasizing for a year. It got Trump elected, even with the weakest mandate in American history.

There will be nothing wholesome about the Trump Presidency. Donald Trump will whow Americans through the ages how not to do the role of President.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 15, 2017, 02:37:06 pm
The double entendre by me (steady stream) was intentional.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Streep tirade shows Hollywood Elite hypocrisy on: January 15, 2017, 12:56:45 pm
Donald Trump will be a brittle target for liberal assaults upon his personality cult. First, this man who campaigned as a 'man of the people' has nothing in common with the masses except for rage and vulgarity. Neither rage nor vulgarity has solved much in the past -- has it? Vulgarity is mere offense, and rage creates more and worse problems than it has ever solved. 
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New Trump advisor: scientist who says climate change is real, and good for USA on: January 15, 2017, 12:46:59 pm
Climate change that makes winters shorter and less severe in the American Midwest will cause reductions in crop yields. Winter blizzards in the Corn Belt protect topsoil moisture in the non-growing season, supply critical melt-water for germinating and vulnerable young plants. Add to this, rainfall patterns might take summer rains out of the region altogether. The harsh fire-and-ice Dfa climates of hot rainy summers and snowy winters might give way to a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (Csa) or even semi-arid BSks climate as in California's Central Valley.

Without the snows atop the soil from December to March, the soils would have to be irrigated with winter rains collected in giant water projects as in California. The midwestern states do not have the deep canyons at the foot of mountain ranges for the giant water projects that make much of California agriculture possible. 
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Colorado Republican congressman leaves his own town hall early on: January 15, 2017, 12:32:51 pm
I expect Democrats to give Republicans a taste of their own "Tea Party" medicine, if without some of the uglier stuff. (I suggest that we not shout obscenities, assault staff, or tell lies. I expect us Democrats to also be more witty and rational).

We should make political life rough for pols who believe that because we did not vote for them we no longer matter. 
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 15, 2017, 12:26:46 pm
Trump's approval took a hit because of the fake golden shower affair.

He will recover pretty soon.

There hasn't been time to measure the impact.

Besides, it hasn't dropped at all from last week. Maybe kinky people like me approve of him more now.

The awful puns and double-entendres practically write themselves. The topic offers a steady stream of psychological connotations.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 14, 2017, 11:19:34 pm
How could devout Christians fall for a Presidential nominee just slightly more moral than Dracula?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's now September 2020.... on: January 14, 2017, 03:56:20 am
1. End of Obama stock-market boom. It can;t last forever.

2. 2018 Gubernatorial elections in several critical states

3. Progressive/liberal equivalent of the Tea Party.

Highly likely:

Strikes, demonstrations, and riots.
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