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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans both support unions and right to work laws on: September 01, 2014, 09:48:39 pm
"Right to work" is in practice Orwellian spin on a corporate agenda to eviscerate unions if outlawing them is impossible. 
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Truth We Won't Admit: Drinking Is Healthy on: September 01, 2014, 09:27:46 pm
A little drinking, at least limited to adults, is benign. If it is good for reducing the risk of stroke and prion diseases -- wonderful.

There are medicines incompatible with alcohol and such conditions as gout that preclude drinking. Without question, pathological drinking -- drinking that gets one drunk or that leads to cirrhosis -- is to be avoided. 
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 31, 2014, 10:38:07 am
Labor Day weekend. Expect few polls.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Comcast and TWC still trying to stifle any potential competitors on: August 30, 2014, 07:43:47 pm
The entire cable business is thoroughly corrupt. It's almost as if the Mob owns it.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans both support unions and right to work laws on: August 29, 2014, 07:21:28 pm
Well, yes, no one's ever gone broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.

A large segment of the American public generally supports unions but also believes people should have the choice not to join them.  This makes them stupid how?   Right to work laws don't ban unions.   If people were truly convinced that joining a union was in their best interest, right to work laws would be irrelevant.

Plenty of industries -- like domestic work, most retailing and food service-- are non-union.  Anyone who thoroughly loathes unions is welcome to work where unions are rare. Usually the pay is atrocious, but that is another story.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC response to Rand Paul's op-ed on: August 29, 2014, 07:05:40 pm
Not surprising. The Democrats have been adopting Bush policies over the entire Obama administration, why not adopt the tactics?

The great difference: President Obama reacts cautiously to real dangers to America -- like ISIS. Dubya reacted rashly to fabricated dangers to America.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would a 2016 "Clinton loses" map look like? on: August 29, 2014, 02:10:04 pm
How the hell does Colorado of all states go red with a guy like Rand Paul?

Colorado has a very loud libertarian part of the electorate. It has a high floor for support by national standards but that floor is very close to its ceiling.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Your current governor on: August 29, 2014, 07:58:02 am
Rick Snyder, R-Michigan. He has done some good (Medicaid expansion) and avoided scandals. Otherwise he has well served out-of-state plutocrats. He has imposed 'emergency managers' who in theory can decide that a public beach can be given away to developers who can replace a beach with 'luxury condominiums' because the property taxes and sales taxes from upscale dwellers will justify the give-away.  (If a local government were doing so to line the pockets of political hacks, then I would be similarly offended!) He promised to not impose right-to-work laws but signed off on them.

He's the sort of politician who does what ALEC wants -- turning a state into another Oklahoma, a state in which plutocrats find it easy to extract wealth without sharing much income. If you are in Michigan and would really rather be in Oklahoma then I suggest that you find your way to I-35 in Kansas or I-44 in Missouri and find your bliss.  Otherwise -- vote out the GOP. 
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 538: Walker Still Favored in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race on: August 29, 2014, 07:45:04 am
Walker is slipping. He is getting much publicity -- but it is all bad publicity. He has hit his ceiling, and when the Democrats get organized (which they typically do on Labor Day) they will sway some 'undecided' voters. An illiberal politician in a liberal state, he offends too many sensibilities to get more than a bare plurality in an election with depressed turnout.

It's the door-knocking campaign that works, and anyone with a liberal agenda can be swayed. Walker can be hammered on issues other than abuse of power -- education, unions, welfare, the environment, or gay rights. If one is a liberal democrat on a door-knocking campaign because one is primarily for keeping labor unions intact and finds that the couple that one encounters seem far more concerned with the legal acceptance of same-sex marriage (SSM) than with unions  then one discusses the homophobia within the Republican party and the resistance of GOP pols in Wisconsin to SSM.

Walker has united the base of the other side.   
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would a 2016 "Clinton loses" map look like? on: August 28, 2014, 02:32:32 pm



She barely loses Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: August 28, 2014, 01:18:25 pm
August 24-25, 2014
Survey of 588 likely voters (PPP, Arizona)

Q3
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jan Brewer?
41%
Favorable
........................................................
47%
Unfavorable
....................................................
12%
Not sure
..........................................................

Favorability and not approval -- but practically as poor as for the President who lost the state by 8% in 2008 and 10% in 2012.

 


1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 28, 2014, 01:06:00 pm
August 24-25, 2014
Survey of 588 likely voters

Arizona Survey Results

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Barack Obama?
40%
Favorable
........................................................
51%
Unfavorable
....................................................
9%
Not sure


Not bad -- considering that it is Arizona.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)














13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 on: August 28, 2014, 09:21:07 am
Overwhelming D.

Pennsylvania can certainly turn on an incumbent in an election -- just think of Rick Sanctimonious in 2006!
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette Law School: Walker leads among RV, Burke leads among LV on: August 28, 2014, 09:19:48 am
Oh no. Walker down.

Well, there's still time. Walker can bomb the airwaves.

If Walker bombs (bad as he is, he so far is no terrorist) it will be like a boring drama or an un-funny comedy on Broadway. He has legal problems, and he has no upside on popularity.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI (EPIC-MRA): Schauer finally takes a lead on: August 28, 2014, 09:16:10 am
Dominating! With Labor Day around the corner, the Dem wave is building!

Not yet. Republicans need a decisive edge before Labor Day to avoid potential defeat by Democrats when the labor unions and minority interests start the GOTV drives. The Democrats have yet to give the fiery Labor Day speeches.

Snyder is in trouble. I saw it coming when he acceded to the "right-to-work" legislation that ALEC proposed. Snyder would be on a fast track to re-election without that blunder.

16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of people who wear hoodies and baggy pants on: August 26, 2014, 11:24:30 pm
Bad taste, but not evil.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 26, 2014, 11:23:13 pm
August 22-24, 2014
Survey of 915 Iowa voters

Iowa Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
40%
Approve
..........................................................
53%
Disapprove
......................................................
7%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_826930.pdf
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McConnell describes the horror that will ensue if the GOP takes the Senate on: August 26, 2014, 07:26:57 pm
Looking forward to it.

Only a blooming idiot would relish a shutdown, regardless of ideology.

I wonder about some Republican elected officials in Congress. In fact I wonder about many of them.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: I just got polled -- by a push pollster! on: August 26, 2014, 07:25:17 pm
Legitimate polls are one thing. Push polls are another -- loaded questions and false dichotomies.

Marist, PPP, Quinnipiac, Selzer, and perhaps Rasmussen (I am not familiar with the 'new' Rasmussen) are OK. A pollster that does not identify itself  is suspect. 
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 26, 2014, 07:08:01 pm
Indiana and Wisconsin could be next. Opponents of SSM have been taking a rhetorical beating in the 7th Circuit Court.


Quote
CHICAGO (AP) — Federal appeals judges bristled on Tuesday at arguments defending gay marriage bans in Indiana and Wisconsin, with one Republican appointee comparing them to now-defunct laws that once outlawed weddings between blacks and whites.

As the legal skirmish in the United States over same-sex marriage shifted to the three-judge panel of the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, more than 200 people lined up hours before to ensure they got a seat at the much-anticipated hearing.

....

(re an amendment in the Wisconsin state Constitution):

Richard Posner, who was appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1981, hit the backers of the ban the hardest. He balked when Wisconsin Assistant Attorney General Timothy Samuelson repeatedly pointed to "tradition" as the underlying justification for barring gay marriage.

"It was tradition to not allow blacks and whites to marry — a tradition that got swept away," the 75-year-old judge said. Prohibition of same sex marriage, Posner to the Wisconsin attorney, derives from "a tradition of hate ... and savage discrimination" of homosexuals.

(re a simpler state law in Indiana):

Posner... frequently cut off Indiana Solicitor General Thomas Fisher, just moments into his presentation and chided him to answer his questions.

At one point, Posner ran through a list of psychological strains of unmarried same-sex couples, including their children having to struggle to grasp why their schoolmates' parents were married and theirs weren't.

"What horrible stuff," Posner said. What benefits to society in barring gay marriage, he asked, outweighs that kind of harm to children?

(to proponents of SSM):

Would they argue in favor of polygamy on similar grounds, pointing to the emotional toll on children in families with multiple mothers or fathers, asked Judge David Hamilton, a President Barack Obama appointee.

Response:

"If you have two people, it's going to look like a marriage," said Kenneth Falk of the American Civil Liberties Union of Indiana. "If you have three or four, it doesn't. ... There's no slippery slope."

(This is much citation, but much is of citations or near-citations of persons arguing a case at law).

21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Would Obama win a third term? on: August 26, 2014, 03:45:32 pm
He's a shrewd a campaigner as any that we have seen since FDR.  He could turn an approval rating in the 43% area into 50% of the vote, which would win. He would run against an unpopular Congress.

Obviously he is doing nothing to shore up his approval ratings in an attempt at an impossible third term.

Obviously the 22nd Amendment is not going to be altered until someone the Republicans can tamper with the electoral process and the President is in fact a dictator with a huge personality cult on the assumption that two terms are not enough for such a glorious leader  against whom any dissent is treasonable.   
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 26, 2014, 01:23:11 pm
So post your latest map then.

Just the most recent one. In most non-SSM states some political figure has effective veto power until the Supreme Court decides or that a State adopts SSM through initiative or referendum, the politician exercising the effective veto is defeated in an election.

Barring a decision of the US Supreme Court, I expect few changes before at least November.





For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:



Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.

23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / I just got polled -- by a push pollster! on: August 25, 2014, 02:00:44 pm
I suggest this thread for people who have received a push poll for a Senate campaign. The voice asked me if I was more concerned with constraining the budget or with issues of "family values". After I made a choice (in favor of a balanced budget, which I find less troublesome and more easily attainable with a strong economy) the voice suggested that one of the two running for Senate in my State would be for balancing the federal budget. Then I was asked whether that knowing this would make me more likely  to vote for the candidate.

Purpose of this thread: to warn people of cr@ppy polls before the results are released.

Terry Lynn Land, R- US Senate. The pollster did not identify itself.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary? on: August 24, 2014, 08:36:27 pm
A majority of Americans are becoming hawks -- about ISIS.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The surprises of the Gubernatorial elections... on: August 24, 2014, 07:59:34 pm
Brownback, Scott,  Snyder, and Walker lose.
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