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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: Today at 06:50:25 am
This is not broadening the map, this is just going back to the standard 2004 winning map.

Republicans then need to figure why they have lost Virginia twice. They have not won without Virginia in a Presidential election since 1924. They had lost Virginia only once between 1952 and 2004 (the LBJ blowout).
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: June 30, 2015, 10:56:03 pm
Portman approval rating: 49%-28% positive


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06222015_Sp52rg.pdf

...but Strickland is ahead.

Toomey has a 51-28 percent approval rating.
Obama has a negative job approval rating in the state (42-55).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06222015_Sp52rg.pdf

What huge swings we see with approvals of Senator Toomey!




Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40      3      0
40-44    2      0
45-49    2      2
50-54    3     0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2




3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: June 30, 2015, 10:52:18 pm
Portman approval rating: 49%-28% positive


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06222015_Sp52rg.pdf

...but Strickland is ahead.




Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       4      0
40-44    3      0
45-49    1      2
50-54    2      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2




[/quote]
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Ogden & Fry: Illinois Senate - Duckworth beating Kirk by 17 on: June 30, 2015, 10:46:12 pm
I can't use this one.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: See things from the other's perspective on: June 30, 2015, 07:38:52 pm
The problem with the white South is that it has no clue that it has no affinity to any other part of the world -- not even in the United States. No other part of the world tries to imitate it. It's unique... but for all the wrong reasons.

I can imagine people trying to study the culture of other peoples of European origin... including of course other parts of the United States.

 
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Hillary leads everyone, Paul and Walker closest on: June 30, 2015, 06:42:00 pm
Interesting that PPP is expecting Walker to be the nominee- he is the only one ever tested against non-Clinton Democrats.  But, this poll definitely suggests that Michigan could be in play (keep in mind that GOP numbers will improve when there is a candidate).

Don't be so sure. Republicans have nobody who has a strong appeal to Michigan.
Too many blacks and union members to be easy picking for a Republican. The last time that the Republicans won Michigan in a close election was 1976 -- with Gerald Ford.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP (MI)- Clinton leads all candidates on: June 30, 2015, 06:38:29 pm
Michigan typically is very close a year and a half before the election, but it typically closes hard late for Democrats in Presidential years.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: June 30, 2015, 06:36:52 pm
PPP, Michigan


Clinton (D).................... 45%
Paul (R)....................... 42%

Clinton (D)................... 46%
Rubio (R)...................... 40%

Clinton (D)................... 44%
Christie (R).................. 38%

Clinton (D).................. 46%
Walker (R).................. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Huckabee (R)............. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Bush (R).................... 38%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Carson (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Fiorina (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Cruz (R).................... 39%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Trump (R)................. 39%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 30, 2015, 06:20:29 pm
Just the fascination with people reinventing themselves, something that many Americans fantasize about doing. Great story, and weird.  
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 30, 2015, 05:48:19 pm
I have known black people with lighter skin than hers. The hair? Do you know of any white person with hair naturally like that? She makes Mariah Carey look unambiguously white.


 
Quote
Rachel Dolezal says she got her skin tone from the sun, but we've learned it's probably more sprays than rays.

Our tanning sources tell us ... Rachel was a loyal customer at Palm Beach Tan in Spokane, Washington. We're told she was a fan of Mystic Tan ... a brand of spray tan.

Palm Beach Tan offers light, medium and dark shades. Our sources wouldn't tell us which Rachel chose, but a spray tan expert tells us Rachel's a medium girl.

https://www.tmz.com/2015/06/17/rachel-dolezal-spray-tanning-salon-black/
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 30, 2015, 05:40:50 pm
I have known black people with lighter skin than hers. The hair? Do you know of any white person with hair naturally like that? She makes Mariah Carey look unambiguously white.


 
Quote
Rachel Dolezal says she got her skin tone from the sun, but we've learned it's probably more sprays than rays.

Our tanning sources tell us ... Rachel was a loyal customer at Palm Beach Tan in Spokane, Washington. We're told she was a fan of Mystic Tan ... a brand of spray tan.

Palm Beach Tan offers light, medium and dark shades. Our sources wouldn't tell us which Rachel chose, but a spray tan expert tells us Rachel's a medium girl.

https://www.tmz.com/2015/06/17/rachel-dolezal-spray-tanning-salon-black/
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should churches that don't perform gay marriages lose their tax-exempt status? on: June 30, 2015, 01:21:09 pm
"Do not have sexual relations with a man as one does with a woman; it is an abomination." -Leviticus 18:22.....Its a Abomination = ObamaNation... America is going to go through judgment soon just like Sodom and Gomorrah went through judgment and was destroyed.

This is the sort of judgment that I wish that the United States of America avoid.



Neither Churchill nor FDR claimed to be God.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: See things from the other's perspective on: June 30, 2015, 11:57:24 am
If I were in that position I would wonder why the rest of the world just does not understand 'my' culture and 'my' values.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Webb takes federalist position on gay marriage UPDATE: not anymore on: June 30, 2015, 05:55:03 am
The reasonable position, one that many Republicans (some running for President)  have yet to take, is to accept the ruling of the US Supreme Court as definitive. It was possible before the Supreme Court decision to oppose SSM without making a fool of oneself -- but not now.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: June 30, 2015, 05:49:44 am
Hispanics aren't interested in conservatism. How much money needs to be pissed away in California and New Mexico before the GOP gets that through its thick skull?

Middle-class Hispanics may be no more liberal in 2016 than they were in 2000. But there are different forms and expressions of conservatism, and Republicans offer the wrong sort of conservatism.  Middle-class Hispanics are, first of all, well-educated. They are arch-conservatives on educational content. But what does that mean? They insist upon high-quality education for their kids. They have no use for the anti-intellectual demagoguery of the GOP that works well in the rural South. If they own businesses, then those businesses are small entities more likely to see welfare funds more likely to pay the bills than to see taxes as a nemesis.  Add to that, small business and giant entities are not always in harmony on politics, as giant entities are likely to seek to squeeze out small-business competition; giant entities are much more likely to make extraordinary profits through crony capitalism.

Poor Hispanics are more likely to see crime as a menace. They are more likely to do jobs that expose them to the menace of street crime. Republicans used to win voters on fear of crime when liberal Democrats still believed that crime was a consequence of poor social conditions that 'create' crime instead of seeing crime as a personal choice of people with the proclivity to commit crimes. The 'limousine liberal' Democrats used to push the idea that bad conditions fostered crime that even strict law enforcement and determined prosecution could not stop. Those 'limousine liberals' had had a patronizing, but subtly offensive view toward minority groups. Liberals no longer believe that stuff.   
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: June 30, 2015, 05:23:11 am
All of these "expand the map" strategies are ridiculous. Hillary won't win Missouri and Jeb won't win New Mexico (he MAY have a small chance with Martinez as his running mate).

"Expand the map" strategies can work not so much at compelling nominees and Parties to expend money and campaign time in states that would otherwise not seem to be in play.  If Republicans can compel the Clinton campaign to defend Minnesota or New Jersey, then Hillary Clinton has probably lost. On the other side, if the Clinton campaign can compel the Republican campaign to spend money and make campaign appearances in Arizona and Georgia, then the Clinton campaign has won.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls on: June 30, 2015, 05:19:03 am
Protestant fundamentalism is strong in Missouri but weak in Iowa.  Such makes the difference between northern rural Missouri being strongly R and Iowa being feebly R -- and Democrats winning Iowa and losing Missouri in Presidential elections.

...the most likely tipping-point state in a close 2016 Presidential election is Virginia.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls on: June 29, 2015, 11:13:57 pm
Basically, the Republican nominee has to collapse for Missouri to be in play for the Democratic nominee.

Sure, Obama conceded Missouri early so that the Democratic Senator could be re-elected... Missouri going for Hillary Clinton implies that she has a near-landslide.
19  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: If you could change 4 Supreme Court cases what would you change on: June 29, 2015, 08:54:17 pm
Citizens United
Kelo
Korematsu

Others, especially Dred Scott and Plessy v. Ferguson, have been fully undone.

20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker still can't answer questions on: June 29, 2015, 08:13:28 pm
He's a third-rate pol, but so are most of the putative Republican candidates for Presidency.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Demoracy Corps: Clinton leads Rubio and Walker on: June 29, 2015, 08:09:11 pm
Biased poll, and even I am not going to accept it.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Obama be remembered in the top 10 of Presidents? on: June 29, 2015, 04:06:21 pm
In my opinion he's in the George HW bush category of successful but not great. His legacy will probably be more of a "he (opened) doors" president then as a great president.

Sure, he opened doors -- doors to the assets of America to the worst speculators of the time. He let America dedicates its energies of economic activity to a speculative boom based upon predatory lending. The Bush economic model depended upon hucksters getting rich by hurting their customers.

That is horrible business; such invariably implodes when people lose faith in it.

Dubya will undoubtedly be seen as one of the ten worst Presidents for a very long time. 
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Breaking: Supreme Court rules SSM a legal right on: June 29, 2015, 03:59:47 pm
There is no one man more responsible for this than Karl Rove. If he hadn't used what was essentially a fringe issue to stoke fear ahead of the 2004 election, same sex marriage would never have advanced as rapidly in the US as it did. He focused the efforts of campaigners in favour of it, but moreso, he had people talking about the issue and engaging with it over their dinner tables a decade ago. And in that time, no argument against it has stood up. As less and less people accept "I just don't like it", full nation-wide legalisation became inevitable, and while it's a shame it took the courts to do it, it was always on it's way... and while he wasn't the main reason, Karl Rove deserves more credit than any other individual for it, I think.

He effectively forced homosexuals to make their case to straight people that same-sex marriage isn't about getting access to vulnerable children and then getting away with  abuse and brutalization of children. At that, gays and lesbians won. They established that homosexuality was not itself perversion.

Gays and lesbians can still appreciate children for all the right reasons. Gay men simply can't love men and lesbian women simply can't love men. If such is the only difference, then is that all bad?

When children become the targets of homophobia, homophobia is child abuse. As a straight male who has frequently known homophobia directed at me as a child because I was a 'sissy', I find that standing up for gay and lesbian rights is the best way to marginalize homophobia that hurt me.  
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker still can't answer questions on: June 29, 2015, 03:50:26 pm
Napoleon was more battle-tested than anyone else at Waterloo.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul: Government Should Get Out of the Marriage Business Altogether on: June 29, 2015, 05:54:07 am
Won't. Be. Nominated.

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