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1  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Atlas Forum: Respond to this Image on: August 30, 2015, 09:47:39 pm
I particularly hate these stats because we're counting growth since the beginning of his presidency, which is like, the bottom of a fiery pit. We should not measure growth; we should measure raw numbers. And compared to what's "normal," the indicators don't paint as much of a glowing picture.

That was a very deep pit, and we can give him credit for turning around an economic downturn that after a year and a half was as severe as the one beginning in 1929.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall: Toomey up on: August 30, 2015, 04:16:22 pm
Toomey needs to be in the position in which he looks to be in the lead with 44% or more. He should be well-enough known by now.

3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2020 With President Trump on: August 30, 2015, 04:09:29 pm
The Obama bull market has come to an end in the Crash of 2018, the economic decline is analogous to the one that made Obama President. The Republicans had gotten their national Right to Work Law... and wages have plummeted just as taxes have been shifted from the federal income tax to a federal sales tax. Civil strife has become at least as severe as that in the 1960s, often in places in which it would never be expected.  

The Democrats are expected to take back the Senate and the House... and whoever is their nominee for President is seen likely to win in a landslide.

  
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 30, 2015, 08:14:04 am
Great work, but these poll maps just exemplify how inaccurate polling can be. Like seriously, who actually expects Clinton to lose PA but win FL?

Polls are stills or snapshots; a thread like this is a film.

Events will change polling results between weeks. There will be gaffes and scandals. The economy can go into the tank.

 I am reminded of how approval for President Obama went up (temporarily) for President Obama after the announcement that Seal Team 6 had whacked Osama bin Laden. 

We might be able to see how approval polls change over time as the times themselves change.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 29, 2015, 09:57:37 pm

Utah, Salt Lake City Tribune/Brigham Young University

Quote
5.  If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and
Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump
662 54%
Hillary Clinton
560 46%

.....

Utah is profoundly conservative. 58% of Utah voters consider themselves "conservative". But know well: the powerful LDS Church is strong enough to break a Republican candidacy. Not a Mormon, I cannot predict what the LDS hierarchy would do if Trump were the GOP nominee. I doubt that it would give a sympathetic endorsement to him.

Democrats can call Donald Trump for his involvement with gambling casinos... which also imply smoking, liquor, bawdy shows, and even prostitution, all of which offend Mormon sensibilities.

Maybe this is not so ridiculous as it seems if it were a generic Republican against a generic Democrat.  Trump has baggage, and this baggage is not the sort that a bellhop delivers to a room.

http://www.sltrib.com/home/2878985-155/new-poll-says-donald-trump-would

... This poll looks really bad for Donald Trump. I do not know whether this data applies only to Utah due to the large number of Mormons or whether it reflects how badly Trump  does nationwide. In view of West Virginia, this does not look like an even shift nationwide of about 8% of the vote (based on 2008).

But if I am to follow the dictum "Show all polls", then it is here. 
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Utah poll: Trump only leads Clinton 54-46 on: August 29, 2015, 09:49:05 pm
>online poll
>University poll
>UT poll
>Brigham Young poll
>no undecideds


YouGov got results close to the national average in 2012. I wasn't going to accept its polls... but those polls proved better than anyone else's.

University poll? We have some already -- Quinnipiac, Roanoke, Marquette University Law School, and (likely soon enough) Marist and Siena.

Brigham Young University has an excellent reputation for academics other than those in which LDS theology might interfere.

Utah? How patient are you?

http://utahvoterpoll.org/documents/2015%20August%20UVP%20Topline.pdf

Quote
5.  If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and
Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump
662 54%
Hillary Clinton
560 46%

.....

Utah is profoundly conservative. 58% of Utah voters consider themselves "conservative". But know well: the powerful LDS Church is strong enough to break a Republican candidacy. Not a Mormon, I cannot predict what the LDS hierarchy would do if Trump were the GOP nominee. I doubt that it would give a sympathetic endorsement to him.

Democrats can call Donald Trump for his involvement with gambling casinos... which also imply smoking, liquor, bawdy shows, and even prostitution, all of which offend Mormon sensibilities.

Maybe this is not so ridiculous as it seems if it were a generic Republican against a generic Democrat.  Trump has baggage, and this baggage is not the sort that a bellhop delivers to a room. 



http://www.sltrib.com/home/2878985-155/new-poll-says-donald-trump-would
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 29, 2015, 10:47:01 am
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   

This is off-topic, but you can't be surprised that people call you a hack when you're convinced that Roy Blunt is toast in 2016 but Michael Bennet is going to win easily because it's a presidential year, even though his approval ratings are about the same as Blunt's.

Roy Blunt looks like toast with an approval rating in the 30s even if he is in Missouri. The  most recent poll showed Bennett with an approval rating in the high 40s, which is usually good enough for getting re-elected. Blunt needs miracles to get re-elected in a state with some competitiveness in a Presidential year that so far looks favorable to a high turnout.

People get called hacks when they say things completely absurd and with a partisan bias. They also get called hacks when they say defensible (if uncertain) things wit a semblance of partisan bias.     
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WV-Orion Strategies: Generic Republican leads Clinton by 32 points (!) on: August 28, 2015, 06:06:15 pm
It'll be interesting to see how long it takes for WV to become internally GOP like the rural South. Union influence might be the only thing actually stopping it as of now. Anyway, I believe a margin like that. What started to flip WV, I think, was the culture wars stuff in the '90s. From what I know of it in the late '90s, people felt very, very threatened by the kind of social progress that loomed on the horizon. It's also so economically disadvantaged and people are largely so low-information that they are vulnerable to corporate propaganda.

West Virginia, long one of the most reliable D states, really turned on George McGovern in 1972... going R+2 that year. George McGovern was a horrible match for West Virginia -- and Barack Obama is about the same. 
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton leads all GOPers, but Biden is doing better. on: August 28, 2015, 09:25:52 am
http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2012/11/08/president-obama-and-the-white-vote-no-problem/

So I noticed that it is widely assumed that the 2016 electorate will be 70% white, 2% lower than 2012, yet Quinnipiac is assuming 74% white for this poll. Also, Hispanics are assumed to be 7%, lower than they were in 2012?? I can understand perhaps Black enthusiasm may dip, but with Trump, and Hillary fighting for citizenship, I think the Latino vote continues to make a bigger part of the pie. Yet despite all of that, she leads them all Smiley

Such demographics would suggest something closer to a "primaries-voters" or "2010/2014" model of questionable applicability to 2016. Democrats typically rely upon turning out not-so-likely voters out at the voting place, while Republicans seek to dampen the desires of non-Republicans as voters.

With what Trump and Bush have said about Asians and Latinos, I can expect those two minorities not only to go out and vote, but also participate in canvassing for votes. Door-to-door canvassing works in campaigns. 
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WV-Orion Strategies: Generic Republican leads Clinton by 32 points (!) on: August 28, 2015, 09:19:25 am
There are still militant unionists in West Virginia -- but the coal barons have been successful in breaking unions and the heritage of militant unions hostile to the GOP.

Want a job in West Virginia? Stay clear of a labor union. 
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 28, 2015, 09:16:44 am
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I intend to show new maps, ideally weekly, to show the 'evolution' of the 2016 Presidential campaign. I think that worth showing. The point is that the old maps will remain. Those could show trends and the consequences of events, gaffes, and blunders.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 27, 2015, 11:17:59 pm
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WV-Orion Strategies: Generic Republican leads Clinton by 32 points (!) on: August 27, 2015, 11:13:45 pm
As a Democrat, I would rather have Virginia than West Virginia on my side.

WV -- aging population, unattractive economic conditions, dying industries, and most likely a shrinking population.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 27, 2015, 11:11:11 pm
So you won't include the WV poll?

Who are these guys?

A common WV pollster with a good track record.
Also,
>including Roanoke
>not including Orion

Try again. The 60% blue display on the Clinton-Trump map is no mistake.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 27, 2015, 11:01:31 pm

West Virginia, Orion Polling.

If in the 2016 General Election for President, your choices were Hillary Clinton and a Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 26%
Republican candidate: 58%

In the 2016 General Election for President, would you likely vote for a Democratic or Republican Candidate?

Democratic: 28%
Republican: 52%

If in the 2016 General Election for President, your choices were Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 30%
Trump: 53%
Undecided: 17%

http://www.statejournal.com/story/29892754/survey-wv-residents-likely-to-pick-trump-over-clinton-in-2016

Who are these guys?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP or Dems: Doomed if they win in '16 on: August 27, 2015, 08:06:35 pm
Dubya had the biggest disaster of a Presidency since Buchanan -- but the $#i+ didn't hit the fan until the second term. The economy was going to implode, and the wars that Dubya bumbled into had yet to show how bad they could go until the second term. I can't imagine any President being able to get America out of the mess before 2008.

The risk for the Democrats losing in 2016 is that the Republicans get lockstep control of American politics, and with that they can entrench themselves so that they never lose a free election -- ever. They can turn the political system into a system of nearly pure patronage. They can change election laws to the detriment of any but the rich. They will not be able to fully knock the Democrats out, but they can make the Democrats about as relevant as the tame, formal opposition in China. On the other side, if the Republicans really muck up, they may foster social unrest like any unknown since the 1960s -- and in a time of far greater dangers. ISIS makes the Vietcong look like saints.

The risk for the Democrats winning in 2016 is that they get caught with the end of a long bull market. Then the Republicans get to promise economic growth without telling the rest of us that it is only for the rich -- and the rest of us get $crewed. 

It's a huge mystery, one whose result nobody can predict. 
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Obama has decimated the Democratic Party on: August 27, 2015, 05:52:27 pm
A century ago the Senate was effectively chosen by State legislatures and no better than those legislatures.  The Seventeenth Amendment made the Senate electable by the People of the States, thus ensuring that the Upper House was democratically elected. Now the State legislatures mostly have effective control of the content of the state delegations to the House of Representatives through control of the boundaries of districts.

The trick is to concede a few districts to the "wrong" Party and dilute the rest.  Republicans can thus ensure that small cities that might vote "wrong" are diluted in a rural hinterland that votes "right". If at the opportune time the State legislature goes one way it can entrench Congressional representatives of its choosing.

  
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 27, 2015, 03:17:53 pm
Hey pbrower,

I just stickied your new thread and unstickied the old one.

An advice:

Instead of posting a new reply all the time with new maps, please just edit the original post every time from now on and change the maps there.


If you post new maps all the time, it becomes unreadable and way toooooo long.

Thx.

(PS: please include ALL polls in the future and not just the ones you like)

Thank you.

The alternative could be to change maps once a week and show only the polls until I change the map. I might put up a new map in the event that some pollster offers polling data for multiple states (as Quinnipiac often does with CO/IA/VA or FL/OH/PA). There have been others to do so (Big 10 Polls, Marist, Siena).

...I try to avoid including polls that come from special-interest groups, ideologically-charged think tanks, political parties, trade associations, unions, and ethnic-advocacy groups. Those that have poor reputations -- like getting prior elections really wrong -- might be inapt. (I think of Rocky Mountain Polling, which late in the 2012  election projected Obama winning Arizona, or Susquehanna in Pennsylvania). A poll that has a close result and over 15% undecided is unreliable enough to avoid. I don't want any 39-37 polls, as I saw by a college in Tennessee one year... in case you forget what the poll said, Obama was in the lead, and he didn't get much more than the 39% that the poll said that he would get.  

I do not want polls that stand to blow up in our faces. We are going to see events shape the races -- maybe an international event, a scandal, or a financial panic.  

I also have five maps of Clinton-vs.-Republican match-ups. I'm still contemplating which map of match-ups to drop so that I can have a neater set of maps to display.

A suggestion: would you promptly delete any post that offers a non-existent or joke poll?      
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: New Hampshire doesn't appear to be a battleground state on: August 27, 2015, 11:49:30 am
Republicans won't lose NH by 10 points, but they won't win it either.

Except during the LBJ landslide (the state was one of two that went to Landon in 1936!), Republicans haven't lost New Hampshire by 10%. They got close to doing so in 2008. 

I think you're thinking of Vermont. New Hampshire narrowly went FDR.

Correction noted.

"As goes Maine... so goes Vermont". FDR, 1936.


Except for 1964, the strongest win for any Democratic nominee in New Hampshire was by Obama in 2008.
 
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 27, 2015, 11:43:15 am
How the hell is Jeb Bush that popular in Colorado? Can't stand the guy myself.

Aging poll. Colorado will likely be polled again fairly soon. Q shows a nationwide trend away from just about every Republican in nationwide match-ups this week. Polls in two swing states (NH, VA) show an anti-GOP trend.

I have recently seen "Establishment" Republicans fade as more populist (but just-as-right-wing) Republicans seem to inspire Republicans. But know well: the upcoming Presidential race, which began as incredibly boring and predictable has become anything but that.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 27, 2015, 10:34:32 am
I have started a new thread without the joke polls... you know, the ones saying that Clinton wins Utah or every Republican beats her in Massachusetts.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218213.0

22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: August 27, 2015, 10:24:30 am
Starting over due to maps involving non-existent polls on the earlier thread.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 27, 2015, 10:20:29 am

In that poll, Trump cracks 40, so it's usable. Wink

21% undecided?

A few years ago I saw a poll in which Obama led in Tennessee with something like a 39-37 margin...  and he ended up losing by 57-41 in Tennessee.

10% undecided? OK. I have to take some risks. 21% undecided? Worthless even if valid.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 27, 2015, 10:07:27 am
Wisconsin -- Marquette University Law School:
Clinton 51
Trump 35
http://www.wisn.com/politics/marquette-poll-shows-walker-still-leading-gop-field-in-wisconsin/34824926

New Hampshire, PPP

Clinton/Trump: 46/44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ayottehassan-a-toss-up-clintonsanders-generally-lead-gop-field.html

Michigan, EpicMRA
Trump 42
Clinton 44
https://lintvwood.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/epic-mra-august-2015-survey.pdf

(not using, for reasons shown elsewhere)

Clinton 39
Trump 40 (!!!)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_MI_Press_Release_8-20-15_Rubio_Prez_Final.pdf

Not usable because nobody cracks '40'

Quinnipiac, FL/OH/PA

FL -- Trump: 43% -- Clinton: 41%
OH -- Clinton: 43% --  Trump: 38%
PA -- Clinton: 45%  -- Trump: 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

Virginia, Roanoake University:

Clinton 45
Trump 32

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Politics%20Aug%202015.Topline.pdf
PPP, North Carolina
Trump (R)........................... 45%
Clinton (D)......................... 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html

Iowa, PPP:
"Donald Trump ... trail(s) by 3 at 43/40"

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/general-election-tight-in-iowa.html

Minnesota, PPP:

Clinton: 44% -- Trump: 39%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MN_80415.pdf

Michigan, PPP (from June!)

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Trump (R)................. 39%

Nevada, PPP:

Clinton (D) 48%
Trump (R) 42%

http://origin.ralstonreports.com/blog/democratic-poll-shows-nevada-senate-race-dead-heat-hillary-state
(Warning -- PPP, but commissioned by a Democratic group)  faute a mieux

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump


25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Possible three-way race, Clinton/Bush/Trump on: August 27, 2015, 09:17:42 am
Quinnipiac, nationwide poll:

Clinton 40%
Bush 24%
Trump 24%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274

....Jeb and Trump would be tied for second place in a three-way race? That would be messy.
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