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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: Today at 03:52:43 pm
Kentucky, PPP: 60-36

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/347362-poll-mcconnells-approval-in-kentucky-at-18-percent

But approval of Senator McConnell is at 18%. Disapproval at 74%. Senator Rand Paul: 37-47.

 http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/KentuckyResults.pdf

The disparity in approval ratings between the President and the two Senators  is without obvious explanation.  The Senators take the hit for the Trump proposal to return to profiteer-first medicine in one of the poorest states, but the President is somehow exempt from political blow-back? Most of the other questions are related to medical coverage, and they generally go against the GOP agenda.

President Trump must have a full Teflon coverage in Kentucky. McConnell could lose a Senate seat in Kentucky in 2020 while President Trump wins this state decisively.

Arizona (the Arizona Republic, one of the most conservative newspapers in America):


About the Survey

 

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

 

Next, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following persons or groups are doing:

 

Q.        President Donald Trump

 

27.5%  Strongly Approve

14.3%  Somewhat Approve

6.5%    Somewhat Disapprove

48.3%  Strongly Disapprove

3.5%    Don’t Know, Refused

(Decimals: that's 42-54  for me as I fill to the next number for Trump and clip for Democrats)


 

Q.        As you may be aware, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was found guilty of criminal contempt of court for defying a Judge’s order to halt detention based solely on suspicion of a person’s immigration status.  There has been speculation that President Trump will pardon the former Sheriff.  Knowing what you know right now, would you support or oppose a Presidential pardon of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio?

28.3%  Strongly Support

8.8%    Somewhat Support

6.5%    Somewhat Oppose

50.3%  Strongly Oppose

6.3%    Don’t Know, Refused

Decimals, sure -- but I clip those.

We may be seeing a cultural change in Arizona. First, I'm guessing that lots of Californians escaping high rents and taxes are finding heir way to Arizona, and they are taking their political attitudes and expectations with them (OK, maybe many of those recent Californians are Hispanic, so that implies some overlap). The Hispanic segment of the electorate has been growing . It is more liberal than Anglo whites, and it is well organized politically. Assimilating? Sure. It is assimilating white Anglo people.

Arizona was closer in 2016 than usual, and it could be another Virginia  in its political trend (although either Colorado or New Mexico is a closer analogue in demographics).

Arizona has a big Mormon population -- and President Trump doesn't exactly fit Mormon family values as did... Obama.

Earlier polls have shown Trump treading water in the hottest and driest state in America (horrible pun, isn't it? I should have used that pun for Michigan and Wisconsin, which really have lakes!)... but you get the basic idea. These results are close to the Marist polls for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But this poll does not deviate much from earlier polls, so it looks good enough for me for now.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/21/roberts-trumps-approval-arizona-dips-42-percent/588039001/  

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.







Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Effects of Trump calling Pakistan enemy of civilization, India to take charge on: Today at 05:37:31 am
We need to guide India's development and mold it in our image.

trying to nation build in INDIA???

good luck with that.....my god

The Indian political system, unlike ours, is not broken.

When it comes time to make sure that America does not fall into the depravity of politics that it now wallows, maybe we could learn from the world's leading democracy. One sixth of the world's population, you know. 
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump nominee; Legalized Same-Sex marriage could lead to legalized pedophillia on: Today at 04:51:21 am
slippery slope amirite

The irony is that mainstream gays and lesbians turned against the pedophiles long ago. They want marriage and children -- which means that they will have as solid reason for hating pedophiles as any straight person.

Normal humans protect their children as ferociously as females of the most ferocious animals on Earth -- the carnivores. We know enough to act carefully among puppies. Mess with a puppy in the presence of its mother, and discover the similarity between a bitch (a legitimate word for a female dog) and a tigress.

There has never been a worse time in American history to be a pedophile. 
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Silicon Valley Billionaires Are the New Robber Barons on: Today at 03:55:37 am
The real robber-barons in Silicon Valley are the landlords who can easily extract half the income of a software engineer making $100K a year for an apartment that would go for about a tenth as much in Cleveland. The landlords are not so much creating wealth as they are maximizing the take.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: Today at 03:48:29 am

Yes, "Other" because it includes any form of disapproval. Basically "Crimethink", as Orwell described  thought incompatible with the Party.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Does Trump pardon Joe Arpaio tomorrow? on: August 21, 2017, 06:55:44 pm
It'd be a stupid and unpopular thing to do so yes.

Is that a good reason to predict that he would so act? Joe Arpaio will get a pardon because the President is willing to do something stupid and unpopular.

...Elderly people can still learn and adapt if they have the proclivity. That keeps them from acting senile.

 Donald Trump utterly lacks the proclivity.  Anybody who has any clue would have never said that there were good people on the side of the neo-Nazis in Charlottesville.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump nominee; Legalized Same-Sex marriage could lead to legalized pedophillia on: August 21, 2017, 06:48:14 pm
Normal people do not initiate discussions of the crime of pedophilia without due provocation.

There is no political constituency for pedophilia. None. It's not going to even approach legalization.



8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 21, 2017, 06:44:51 pm
AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/


Under 30% and he's going to jail.
Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic


Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

I don't know about 2016 specifically, but overall they have a C+ rating from 538 based on 260 polls, with a negligible bias (R+0.1).

C+ pollster? A good analogue is that someone taking the test who can answer the questions with obvious answers and some of modest difficulty well enough -- but nothing tougher.

Consistent with a President with crippled credibility.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why does Trump strive to be such an awful president? on: August 21, 2017, 11:31:16 am
Dunning-Kruger effect. If he ever played "Chopsticks" on the piano he would think himself the second coming of Vladimir Horowitz -- if he knew who Vladimir Horowitz was. He needs not strive.

He might be a long way from playing Liszt's Sonata in B Minor for piano, but he has no idea that he is far from even understanding the work.
10  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: If the concept of heaven and hell is true ... on: August 21, 2017, 07:51:51 am
Hell. He is a very bad person.

Hell is for people who because of their perversity would never fit into Heaven.
11  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Liberal view on religion, heaven and hell on: August 21, 2017, 07:50:23 am
I like the Jewish version --

the Evil are out of sight and out of mind

the Good enter heaven no matter what they believed before they died -- but they convert to Judaism.
12  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Philosophies that are almost like religions? on: August 21, 2017, 07:48:15 am
Theosophy
White/Aryan supremacy
$cientology
Afrocentrism
Ayn Rand's objectivism
Marxism-Leninism
13  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Philosophies that are almost like religions? on: August 21, 2017, 07:45:10 am
Evolution and climate change

Scientific doctrines founded in rational experiment and discussion are not religion.
14  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of believing in Theistic Evolution on: August 21, 2017, 07:40:09 am
Theristic creation to the extent of God establishing the laws by which the Universe operates? Fine.

Evolution is largely the result of random events. The great object striking in Yucatan made us possible, as mammals larger than cats could have never coexisted with the dinosaurs that then died out. A little environmental adaptation might have allowed octopuses to go onto land and become the most intelligent creatures on Earth. 
15  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of Billy Graham on: August 21, 2017, 07:34:07 am
He must be kicking himself as he hears of the gross amorality of the Trump Presidency.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sabato: Governors 2017-2018: The Democrats' Complicated Path to Big Gains on: August 21, 2017, 07:26:05 am
The poor favorability rating for Scott Walker (R, WI) at 40-53 suggests that he could be set up for a tumble in 2018. Effective campaigning is good enough to cause most incumbent Governors and Senators with approval ratings of 43% to get half the vote, but the chance of winning rises rapidly or falls rapidly (47% approval means about a 95% chance of winning and 40% approval gives about a 95% chance of losing) as one gets away from 43%.

The 6-7% increase in vote share from early approval rating reflects that for an incumbent Governor or Senator, approval ratings drop significantly once one starts governing or legislating (about 6-7%) as one gets out of campaign mode and starts disappointing people with votes and policies. But one can campaign for re-election.

Someone in Wisconsin might be able to tell me what can go right for him between now and April of next year, let alone how well he can campaign on boilerplate reaction in a state in which Trump won (barely) but seems likely to pull any Republican incumbent down.

But this is new data. Larry Sabato would likely agree with me on this
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KS-GOV: Brownback to resign on: August 21, 2017, 07:12:15 am
"Ambassador-at-Large of the United States for International Religious Freedom" sounds like one of the most ineffective and useless posts at the State Department.  Brownback clearly wanted out.

Sounds made-up

A kiss-up to the Protestant fundamentalists and the Opus Dei wing of the Catholic Church.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wisconsin Megathread - Parisi not running on: August 21, 2017, 07:09:41 am
Marist did terribly in the Midwest in 2016

Which states? I couldn't find any for Wisconsin/Michigan. There are ones for Illinois in like March and one for Iowa in August. The IA poll didn't seem that out of step with what you might expect then.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242977.0

Also:

It should be noted that NBC News/Marist had Hillary winning PA by 12 points in mid-October.

But yeah, they didn't poll WI in 2016. It was Marquette that showed Clinton up 6 in November, not NBC/Marist.

Look, I'm not saying he won't face a tough reelection battle, but it's way too early to count him out. Saying that there is no way he can win and basing it on numbers from a pollster who did poorly in 2016 and doing so 15 months before the election is ridiculous. WI isn't IL, as I'm sure Ron Johnson will tell you.

I'm still bitter about Ron Johnson...

One of the best Senators money can buy -- an empty suit who believes that no human suffering is excessive so long as it enriches and pampers elites.

The 2016 election made me regret that I am an American.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How does political polarization manifest itself socially or in our daily lives? on: August 21, 2017, 05:28:34 am
The polarization began before Donald Trump ran for President. It would still be here if Hillary Clinton were President.

Maybe the good thing about Donald Trump is that one has many good reasons for despising him if one is not a "yes-shrieker" from bad character to bad taste as well as his agenda.

Donald Trump is a mirror-image Marxist, the sort of person who sees the critique of capitalism at its work as the depiction of an ideal --  a world of subordination, conformity, inequality, and repression for the proles but unlimited indulgence for elites. Between him and a hard-core Marxist-Leninist is only one difference: that he endorses what Marx finds wrong in capitalism.

Would I date someone who claims to support Trump? Hell, no! Would I maintain a relationship once I found evidence of support for fervent support of the Trumpenstein monster? No.
I believe that I can make a solid conservative argument against him. First, I believe that the next really-successful Republican President will have more in common with Barack Obama in intelligence, preparation, deftness of communication, and overall morality than with Donald Judas Trump. Thus, a conservative Republican who can convince people that they must pay higher rents and taxes while working harder and longer for less if their world is better must reject cronyism and luxury. There has never been any great economic improvement that has not come without widespread sacrifice.

Second, the Right needs to get as tough on organized crime and white-collar crime as it gets (at least rhetorically) on street crime. Criminals themselves exploiters and abusers, parasites upon the rest of us. It may be mere coincidence, but the stock market took a big gain on the day that Bernie Madoff was arrested. 

Third, our economic elites need to recognize the working class for its contributions with fair pay and with the opportunity to find meaning in life other than in productive toil. Donald Trump could praise the vulgarity of masses of the white working class, as he is as vulgar as the stereotype of 'trailer trash'. (Please, liberals -- get phrases like that out of your lexicon. There's a wider array of people living in manufactured housing, which I consider the wave of the future in housing outside of the high-rise jungles of giant cities, than the old stereotype of people who listen to nothing but country music or can't get an overload of NASCAR racing on TV). I have done canvassing and census enumerating at such mass settlements of people in manufactured housing, and I have found a much wider diversity of people than you might have expected. I can see myself in such a place, and people who expect to hear country music will be surprised to hear a Shostakovich string quartet.

Fourth, recognize that more production of manufactured goods is unlikely to bring more happiness. Real progress implies living better on less, which means that a tablet that one can pick up at Wal*Mart for about $100 (less than the cost of two cartons of cancerettes) is far more useful and powerful than are more powerful and versatile than a fiendishly-expensive mainframe computer that was the norm in business as late as the 1960s. But the mainframe computer required a large number of people to program, feed data into, and maintain... and required huge amounts of electricity to operate and to keep the Data Processing Department from being as hot as a foundry. There were people who made very good incomes servicing the mainframe computers that are to modern data processing what horses and buggies and dirt roads were to the cars and early superhighways of the 1950s. But there is a trade-off between efficiency on the one side and jobs  and resource extraction on the other.
   

Would I date someone who admits that voting for Donald Trump is a mistake? Maybe.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 20, 2017, 12:15:54 pm
The three states that were the closest wins for Donald Trump have turned against him.  He won't be getting them back in 2020 except in a rigged election.

Marist, approval, registered voters (which will skew old because many voters of 2020 will be voting for the first time, and that will be largely younger voters). But even without an infusion of younger, liberal votes President Trump looks to be the political equivalent of a helpless lobster in a cooking pot full of boiling water -- at least in these three states.

Michigan: 36 approve, 55 disapprove.

Trump does above 50% with Republicans, White Evangelicals, "Trump supporters", "Tea Party supporters, and people describing themselves as  'conservative' or 'very conservative' but otherwise does badly among just about every identifiable group. Among men it is 43%, and from there it gets even worse across ever sector of ethnicity, educational level, income, and even region within Michigan, including southwestern Michigan which is usually about as solidly Republican as Alabama.

The Governor is term-limited, so he won't be running for re-election.  That will save him some embarrassment, as he was down 37-47 in favorability.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/MIpolls/MI170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Michigan%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3  

Pennsylvania: 35 approve 54 disapprove

Much the same as in Michigan -- Trump fails among every group except those directly connected to his ideology. He does have a 44-42 edge among white people without college degrees.

Governor Tom Wolf (D) 47-37 in favorability... good shape.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/PAPolls/PA170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Pennsylvania%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3

Wisconsin: 34 approve 56 disapprove

Much as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even "conservative/very conservative" support is rather weak for usual expectations at 63-26.  

Favorability/unfavorability of Governor Scott Walker : 40-53 among registered voters. He's going down, and he won't be able to help the President in a re-election bid unless he can turn his poor rating of favorability up significantly.  

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/WIPolls/WI170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Wisconsin%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3

Don't try running against Obama: in Wisconsin, 60% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of President Obama. In Pennsylvania it is 62%, and in Michigan it is 63%.

 







Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+






21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: August 20, 2017, 08:17:45 am
Quote
New NBC/Marist polls of MI/PA/WI:

Trump's approval rating among reg voters
MI: 36%
PA: 35%
WI: 34%

(Aug 13-17, MOE +/- 3.5%)

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/899254712435978241

This is consistent with disapproval ratings of 60% or more in the three closest wins for the President.  I will update the map when I see the disapproval ratings, as that is a key statistic in my mapping.

I already had disapproval numbers in the low sixties for the President in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which left Wisconsin as the margin of victory in 2020. Iowa, which usually is close to Wisconsin in voting, is probably gone for the President too. I suspect that the full details will be shown on an NBC News program.

I'm not going to discuss Ohio.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Confederate articles in the U.S. on: August 20, 2017, 08:07:54 am
Define "articles"

Statues, flags, plaques, memorials, anything along that line.

When I say articles, I do not mean what has been written about the Confederacy or about Confederates.

I'm sure that many American Legion and VFW halls have souvenirs from American wars, including WWII -- including captured Nazi flags usually displayed in an unflattering manner.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lives of several clergy members at Charlottesville saved by Antifa on: August 20, 2017, 07:58:04 am
It is obvious that fascists are enemies of Marxists, non-communist Leftists, and liberals. It is not so obvious that fascists usually end up enemies of conservatives. Fascists have no use for the conservative ideas of liberty and property.

I am satisfied that if Antifa got its way, fascists would be rounded up quickly as political prisoners. This said, if fascists commit crimes in their attempts to make themselves known, they wou7ld also end up in prison with common criminals.   

24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is this violating public accomondation codes? on: August 20, 2017, 07:47:33 am
No. A company has a right to refuse to service grey-market items. A cell phone sold in China may not be licensed for use outside of China, so an American tourist who bought the phone in China would have the same problem in the USA.

The purpose may be to ensure that people in the USA pay above-world-market prices for what they get in America even if it was manufactured elsewhere, but that is the new model of American capitalism (especially in pharmaceuticals).  Pay the price or do without even if it kills you.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 1947 Anti-Fascist video is oddly relevant, 70 years later on: August 19, 2017, 07:00:16 pm
I've seen it before and found it telling ... and good for some political arguments.

Beware the demagogue who stokes anger and promotes division.
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