Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2017, 07:01:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 604
1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Harvard Public Opinion Project: A Lost Generation for the GOP? on: April 25, 2017, 11:25:37 pm
Kind of an obvious point, but a big reason why this generation doesn't like Republicans (Trump especially) is because they're incredibly racially and ethnically diverse. Hispanics, Asians, and blacks don't like him. And the best possible result Trump got among 18-29 white voters was 48% to Hillary's 43%. And that's the best result I've seen so far.

According to roper, George Bush tied Al Gore with 18-24 year olds...so the idea that the youth have always being incredibly Democratic isn't the case.

Of course this is also a time in which religious and ethnic animus are unusually abominable among educated young people. A politician like Donald Trump who tries to exploit it offends well-educated young people of all origins. Add to this, educated young adults are likely to be heavy debtors (school loans) and payers of exorbitant real rents  (if they are to live where the earnings are high). Much of their disposable income seems to be going to passive investors capable of exploiting permanent scarcity (urban landlords); heavily in debt just to have a chance at a good job, they are more likely to be on the Left side of the political spectrum. Historically, big creditors have been for an underheated economy that drives wages down and keeps debt relatively valuable; such makes debtors hurt and keeps debtors under control. People heavily in debt are for an overheated economy that makes paying off debt easier and debt itself less burdensome.  To be sure, small-scale creditors who have insurance policies and small saving accounts may wish to have an economy active enough to ensure that people need not dip into savings just to survive. Young adults are more likely paying off student loans than putting savings aside. A young adult is almost in the position of a sharecropper heavily in debt to lenders just to get the chance to hold a non-menial job.

Republicans generally stand for cheap-labor policies, which is not good for young adults.

Now here us a devastating consequence: people in their twenties are not yet in positions of political leadership. To be sure, political leadership is decidedly old -- and with the President, freakishly old -- but just think of what sort of young politicians one gets winning Congressional seats and spots in city councils and state legislatures as the old-timers fade out. Millennial adults    will seek politicians who fit their values, and the young Millennial politicians to first achieve political power will be those with a large constituency of like-minded people. Politicians who get 70% of the  Millennial vote will be able to just barely lose the rest of the vote and get elected.

Generation X has been rather conservative. To be sure it was about even on Barack Obama -- but Obama isn't exactly a radical. He's more like Eisenhower than like Kennedy even if he admires Kennedy more. It may be at the stage in which it decides that what is good for Corporate America is best for itself as it starts to get a stake in the system -- but then the Right turns on the racial and religious animus and goes on anti-labor and anti-environment crusades.

I can't see what Donald Trump has to offer young adults who have more faith in science than in the acquisitive impulse, who are moral but not particularly religious, who reject sexism and homophobia, and who have read 1984 and Fahrenheit 451  -- and they find Donald Trump as President and a Congress that better heeds corporate lobbyists than constituents. They see an economy characteristic of a fascist dictatorship and the economic inequality of a plantation order -- and they don't like it. I remember when Democrats used Herbert Hoover as the catch-all for political ideas that they distrusted. Donald Trump will be much the same -- only worse. Hoover did not have a reckless foreign policy, he was not particularly bigoted, and he never talked about grabbing women by their... uh, kitty-cats. For decades the current President will remind Americans of what they most despise in their political culture. Republicans will have to entrench their power by force and fraud or move away from Donald Trump.  He will be an easy target for contempt should there be an economic downturn or some international disaster.   
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 25, 2017, 01:05:09 pm
Rasmussen (4/25/17) Trump CRASHES

Approve: 47% (-4)
Dissaprove: 53% (+4)

Rasmussen seems to be fluctuating recently.

Is it possible to win a Presidential election if one has 53% disapproval?
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump escalates trade war with Canada: imposes tariffs on Canadian milk, lumber on: April 24, 2017, 11:18:36 pm
Unions offer two things that many workers need if they are to have any dignity on the job: (1) a grievance process, and (2) collective bargaining.

Union rules can keep bosses from playing favorites. Collective bargaining ensures that workers do not get their wages set by their incompetence at bargaining with an employer who can grind them down and inculcate fear of job loss on pay alone. For machine-paced work, a union contract ensures that people doing the same sort of work get the same pay, with an allowance for seniority.

In some activities a union can protect a worker from pressure from the organizations that misuse their authority. I am a teacher, and I set high standards for students. That is good teaching practice, but some kids think that I demean their culture by pushing them. (Uh, there are plenty of models of highly-successful black people, but as a rule today those are well-educated black people... if I were a real racist I would let bad behavior slide due to low expectations).
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 24, 2017, 10:14:01 pm
National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

Meh, I'd dispute that. The GOP under Bush (2005-2007) had it better. Their dream Congress would have been one that a President Hillary Clinton would have delivered in the 2018 midterm, which combined with further gains + the presidency in 2020 would have given them a lot more power to push through their priorities.

As it stands now, it's easy to see the GOP being only minimally productive under Trump, especially if Democrats take back the House or at least make substantial gains in 2018.

I hope that you are right. I saw such legislation pass the Michigan Snake legislature in a state known for some of the most powerful unions ever. if such can pass in Michigan it can pass nationally.

Corporate America hates unions. It wants helpless cheap labor, and I expect Corporate America to stop at nothing toward that end.   
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 24, 2017, 02:46:02 pm
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Now Sean Hannity facing sexual harassment accusations at Fox News on: April 23, 2017, 10:51:41 pm
We can wait to see if there is more. One accusation can be sheer, dishonest opportunism or a simple misunderstanding. Several? At that point we have a problem.

A good analogy is to a DUI conviction. Sometimes one does not know that he is over the limit when driving. Was that three or four drinks? Who knows -- but the breathalyzer will tell, and it is legally definitive.

So one learns from the mistake, gets a minor sentence, and must be more careful about driving away from a New Year's Eve party. Maybe one calls a cab or has his 17-year-old daughter pick him up. Or sleeps over. One does not make the same mistake again. having a rare bender does not indicate that one is an alcoholic.

A second time? It depends perhaps on the time since the first DUI. Third? One is almost certainly a troubled drinker and need to make a hard choice between drinking and driving.

For years I thought that the isolated accusations against Bill Cosby were suspect. Eventually we have come to know better; there are just too many incidents and too many similar stories.

WE SHALL SEE.

       
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In break from DNC, Pelosi says you "of course" can be pro-life and a Democrat on: April 23, 2017, 10:38:50 pm
OK. Nobody really likes abortion. Most liberals want to make it rare by ensuring that women do not get trapped into inconvenient births that can wreck their lives. Abortion  is a traumatic choice even if the cause is medical necessity. This is far more effective in stopping abortion than any ban on abortion.

If I had a daughter, I would want her to be as knowledgeable as a whore about sex and pregnancy -- so that she could make rational choices to avoid an unwelcome pregnancy that could disrupt her plans for education and career -- or a desirable husband (not that those realities are incompatible). I would make clear to a son that he must not inflict an unwelcome, distuptive pregnancy upon a girl.

.    
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Merkel had to teach Trump how EU trade works 11 times on: April 23, 2017, 05:16:37 pm
He's trying to negotiate with the EU as if he were dealing with a business. 
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump is the earthquake, shaking up the foundation of our country. on: April 23, 2017, 05:14:41 pm
Actually, you were worse, but I have sensed some movement and resolution with your acceptance of Trump. I have not seen any evidence that Virginia has cooled her jets yet with regards to Trump.

I was visibly peeved irl immediately after the election but that visceral anger dissipated months ago. Online, I still feel no inhibitions in ranting about what I truly think of Trump. So far, he has done nothing to make me feel less disgusted with him. He's still a corrupt liar and a sexual predator who treats people like trash. Nothing has changed on that front, and I don't feel obligated to accept him in any other form than I do right now: human garbage who in a more just world, probably would have went to prison a long time ago before ever sticking his fat head in politics.

With the way things have been going, if I ever cool off in this regard, it'll likely be from attrition and not any actual change in opinion.
I'm sure you might like him if you met him.

By most accounts Ted Bundy was a likeable-enough fellow so long as he didn't get you into his VW Bug.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Now Sean Hannity facing sexual harassment accusations at Fox News on: April 23, 2017, 05:12:49 pm
How long will it be before FoX News has to be sold at fire-sale prices to CBS/Viacom or ABC/Disney?
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: Most voters blame Trump/Republicans for first 100 days failures on: April 23, 2017, 05:11:11 pm
306-232... assuming no wayward electoral votes and a uniform swing:

1% (0.5% both ways) ... Clinton wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,  and Clinton wins the presidential election  278-260.

1.2% (0.6% both ways) ... Clinton also wins Florida, and wins the Electoral College 305-231.

3.7% (1.85% both ways)... Clinton also wins Arizona and New Mexico and wins you-know-what 332-204.

Instead we have a government nearly as immoral as the Confederacy.  We might as well replace the 50 stars with the Flag of the Defense of Slavery for the next four years.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 23, 2017, 04:28:50 pm
It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.

I don't see Clinton appointees like Breyer or Ginsberg retiring off the bench when Trump is still President. Ginsberg should have probably just retired when Obama(i.e. a Democrat Presidential Administration) was in office but she didn't.

They're not not going to retire when a President believes that government rightly represents wealth and economic power or that the prohibition of "cruel and unusual punishment"  stops just short of burning at the stake. Nobody so far left as Barry Goldwater really trusts this President.  

Right-wing rule will be nasty.  Donald Trump makes Calvin Coolidge look like a liberal except perhaps on race.    
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Poll: Science & evidence-based research are correct we are harming Earth ? on: April 23, 2017, 05:29:27 am

Of course we know by now what the 'scientific' view of economic reality is according to the Trump Administration: economic 'progress' is nothing more than the enrichment of the Right People irrespective of the hardships that other must endure.

That's what feudal lords, antebellum planters, mobsters, and kleptocrats believe.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 23, 2017, 05:21:20 am
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the following states flip, and how? on: April 22, 2017, 08:36:06 pm
Isn't it simple? Donald Trump must be an effective President to win in 2020. Presidents at all effective get re-elected unless they stand on a tired agenda (the elder Bush).

Democrats will pay more attention to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, so even if little else changes, Democrats win on those three states.

Trump winning states that Clinton won suggest that he has been successful.... does anyone want to predict that? ... or that the election is rigged. His party is ruthless enough to do that.

Now how does America warm up to a Trump Presidency?
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Poll: Science & evidence-based research are correct we are harming Earth ? on: April 22, 2017, 07:59:46 pm
If we aren't hurting the Earth, then we are certainly hurting ourselves.

By attacking science we are denying ourselves some of the means of meeting problems that we already have and potentially denying ourselves the fruits of scientific inquiry.   
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Breaking: Rep. Chaffetz considers leaving Congress before the end of his term on: April 22, 2017, 12:12:01 am
I don't believe it's any sex-related scandal because Mormons don't have sex.

Anyway, some early speculation: I wouldn't expect a repeat of GA-6 or even KS-4 in the event that we have another special election this year.  Even if it's Utah, I don't expect Trump's unpopularity to trickle down there.  Republicans here are smart enough not to nominate a Trump loyalist, also.

They have a plenty of sex -- only it is between one man and one woman -- or one risks being excommunicated. 
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: David Brooks: Western civilization is collapsing on: April 22, 2017, 12:09:32 am
The contradictions within Western civilization force change, and tendencies of historical system give some of the contradictions either temporary or longer-lasting advantages.

(Effectively I fused Hegel and Darwin in that one sentence).

Western civilization is no more collapsing now than it was in the 1920s, when the trends were truly putrid. Is anyone ready to read some ponderous tomes on eugenics? Let alone take a dive into the cesspool that is Alfred Rosenberg's Myth of the 20th Century?   

Our modern world, which emerged from the late middle ages in the swaddling clothes of the Renaissance, has been working itself through its problems for about 600 years. We all recognize that we have too much to lose in any reversion to the barbarism of the middle ages. Our patterns of thought can change (try writing a novel without the influence of Freud -- possible until about 1900 but impossible now) -- but so can our institutions.

You can trust that if America goes bad enough, then there will be other countries to take or share our current role. But that, no matter how bad it is for Americans, will be another triumph of Western civilization.   
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN: Russia tried to use Trump advisers to infiltrate campaign on: April 21, 2017, 11:08:21 pm
Worse than Watergate.

With a change in ideology, this is analogous to what Stalin did to nominally-independent countries in central and Balkan Europe.  Stalin allowed the masquerade of democratic processes while local Commies following Stalin's instructions used salami tactics to undercut democracy until the democracy was a hollow shell. 
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Nightmare Scenario for Florida’s Coastal Homeowners on: April 21, 2017, 12:56:43 pm
Telling that their houses will go from supremely valuable to unmarketable will really scare people.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: U.S. House banking chairman unveils Dodd-Frank replacement on: April 21, 2017, 03:08:50 am
1. TT is a prediction thief. Tongue
2. I doubt the Democrats will regain power until the fiscal + economic crisis occurs. I anticipate the Republicans having an edge until that situation occurs. That could be 2020, 2024, or at the extremes, 2028. Obama left us a fiery strong economy so this crisis will take a while to develop but given Obama didn't solve the underlying roots of the financial crisis this will be an issue that comes up again.
3. The 2008 crisis occurred before we got our foreshadowing Presidency. Obama was a sign of things to come but he was operating within a minority Democratic coalition.
4. Donald Trump and Mike Pence do not have the political coalition or capital to head off the crisis. In fact behavior like what Jeb Hensarling is doing will make the coming crisis worse. Obama tried to head off the crisis by instituting Dodd-Frank but by removing the protections the Republicans are creating the conditions.
5. The Republicans can slip portions of repeal etc into must pass bills and bills that have gone to Conference and need final approval. In fact this is most likely what they will do.


An economy can go very bad very fast. Think of what happened to Herbert Hoover. Maybe we would have had  more pervasive reforms had the economy melted down over three years  (autumn 1929-autumn 1932) than over a year and a half (autumn 2007-spring 2009).  But we are operating on an honor system instead of under bureaucratic red tape. Once the honor system becomes irrelevant, we are in for the bad behavior that precipitated panics as in 1929 and 2008.

I expect Republicans to push a 'profits-first' economy that will have wage cuts and union-destruction as a cure for any economic distress -- which will be like smoking to deliver some relief from the pain of lung cancer. 
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Source: Trumpcare is back an worse then ever on: April 21, 2017, 03:00:56 am
We might even see "medical cost" refugees leaving America.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sessions comment about 'an island in the Pacific' is dog-whistle bigotry ? on: April 21, 2017, 02:58:20 am
"They were a minority type thing and it wasn’t glamorous, so she came home."  -Sarah Palin's father talking about her in Hawaii.

An aside -- with her slangy speech, Sarah Palin had a difficult time relating to people whose first language is not English. I have found that when talking to people who are not native speakers of English it is wise to cleave strictly to the formal register in which English is taught to learners of English as a  second language. This is irrespective of how close the first language is to English in its grammar (it applies alike for French as for Chinese) or the level of proficiency of English of the non-native speaker. 
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 21, 2017, 02:50:22 am
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

Barack Obama got overwhelming percentages of the Jewish, Latino, and Asian votes. He is neither Jewish, Latino, nor Asian. In fact he won unambiguous majorities in the 2008 and 2012 elections. It is safe to say that millions of people voted for him for reasons other than his ethnicity.

Donald Trump is a thoroughly-awful person. The crotch-grabbing is enough of a reason for me to reject him for President. But go ahead and have an emotional stake in him. Many people have questionable heroes like tyrants, mobsters, swindlers, and terrorists.

If you are a conservative you have plenty of alternatives to Donald Trump as a hero. It troubles me that he mentioned tyrants as people that he admired. He could have offered Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Reagan.   

Quote
When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

A 'victory tour' -- he could have been consulting experts on how to staff the White House, how to deal with Congress, etc. ...
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 20, 2017, 09:55:55 pm
At a 6% advantage, Democrats win back the House only if they can win back districts that swung heavily against them in states like Arkansas and Georgia that used to lean Democratic, generally where gerrymandering is irrelevant. 
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 604


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines