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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Donald Trump will resign 'soon', says top Democrat Dianne Feinstein on: Today at 11:16:33 am

People are saying that Trump's ego won't let him resign.

But in my view, if his life becomes so negative because of the political responsibilities, and if it starts affecting his ability to go play golf every single weekend, then what would be more important to Trump? Golf and his business empire, or being President?

To me it's a no brainer. Trump is a very shallow man.
Its obvious that many of the Dems, and a few of the Republicans, pursuing this "Trump conspired with the Russians" conspiracy theory have an incredibly vindictive attitude to this. they obviously can't forgive Trump for winning an election that they wanted him to lose and they want to pursue charges against him. Trump resigning won't satisfy them. They will take it as an admission of guilt of these charges and at the same time by taking away his power it will take away his ability to defend himself.

Trump has absolutely nothing to gain by resigning and no motive for doing so.

Imagine that the Democratic winner had gotten much aid from China, having praised Chinese leadership for innovative policies, some of which include the stealing of intellectual property. It praises Chinese communists instead of European and American leaders. Many Democrats would smell a rat and would be unhappy.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: Today at 11:07:59 am
Political Polls‏
@Politics_Polls

CALIFORNIA
Trump Job Approval:
Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=1230

Doesn't change my map.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kentucky Passes 'Blue Lives Matter' Law making it hate crime to attack cops on: Today at 02:33:35 am
I know that hate crimes are a thing because of the racists, but I wonder why a racist killer can't just go to jail for murder, rather than getting an extra 5 years because he's racist. I also wonder why the murderer Dylann Roof stood in front of a Federal jury instead of a state jury, considering he did not commit his crime on Federal property.

The idea that the Federal government should step in because the crime was done for racist reasons seemingly violates the Constitution. I really wonder if the Supreme Court would agree with me. Think about it for a few seconds, and you might.

Hate crimes legislation is appropriate for augmenting what is usually a misdemeanor (like vandalism) into a felony. If someone sprays swastikas and neo-Nazi slogans on my property (I'm not Jewish, but even in mistaken identity it would be a hate crime)  I would press hate-crime charges  in addition to vandalism. I might go leniently on an offender who shows contrition and begins to recognize how horrible the stuff is.  The person who has no commitment to hate groups might break if he were shown what the stuff really means.

I'd also take great offense at "off a Pig Today!" even if I am not a cop. 
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kentucky Passes 'Blue Lives Matter' Law making it hate crime to attack cops on: March 22, 2017, 11:13:57 pm
Do we have a hate crimes statute for attacking people for having 'noble' professions?

Many criminals think it acceptable to attack and even kill people for being prostitutes. Should we have a hate crimes statute for that?

Ethnicity, race, religion, handicap, social class, and gender identity might be cause to have protections against crimes directed at people for what they are. Genocide and genocide-like crimes are the definitive hate crimes, and the path to those crimes begins with smaller-scale hate crimes.

Hate crimes statutes are ordinarily leveled at crimes less egregious than murder.  I can see how "Class of '20" or "Eddie + Susan 4ever" as graffiti are much less troublesome than a swastika or Nazi slogans daubed on 'Temple Beth Shalom'. "Off a Pig Today" on a cop's property? Interesting comparison. 
5  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: If Donald Trump went into the legal profession on: March 22, 2017, 03:54:11 pm
If Donald Trump went into the legal profession rather than in the business field, how well would he have done and what would the timeline look like today?

Does he have the temperament for law?
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 22, 2017, 01:33:00 pm
Quinnipiac Poll (national):

37% Approve (-4)
56% Disapprove (+4)

Source

The key is his base is eroding.

Men:

43% Approve (-6)
52% Disapprove (+7)

Whites:

44% Approve (-5)
50% Disapprove (+5)

Republicans:

81% Approve (-10)
14% Disapprove (+9)

Whites With No College Degree:

50% Approve (-10)
43% Disapprove (+9)



Now the poll for which I salivate:

Marquette Poll of WI:

41% Approve
47% Disapprove

So the question is was Hillary just a bad fit for the state?

Yes, he went on to say that heavily won late decidedness and folks that hated both candidates.

President Trump would lose Wisconsin if he were running for re-election this year.

It will be interesting to see how Governor Walker and  Senator Baldwin fare.



Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AP: Manafort had a $10 million annual contract to benefit Putin government on: March 22, 2017, 11:33:36 am
where does trump even find those guys?

There are lots of websites where you can get people sent to you from Russia with a modest fee. I've even seen some ads for them on this site.

But they are usually promoted as romantic interests.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Seattle synagogue vandalized with anti-Semitic grafiiti on: March 22, 2017, 11:32:05 am
I agree such probable hoaxes are terrible. As usual, I'm sticking with my rule that this is a hoax until proven otherwise.

Hoax? Why would anyone do such except if full of hatred toward Jews?
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Donald Trump will resign 'soon', says top Democrat Dianne Feinstein on: March 22, 2017, 11:04:40 am
I don't buy the resignation part because I believe he will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming, but I do buy that Feinstein knows something. This all makes sense when you consider her meeting with Grassley and Comey.

I wonder what other people they talked to -- members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?

10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Donald Trump will resign 'soon', says top Democrat Dianne Feinstein on: March 22, 2017, 08:10:27 am

I believe he will resign soon because this presidential gig is not what he thought it would be. He thought he could be King, ram-rod through stuff and have everything his way, but the job is nothing like that.

I don't think he likes all the time wasting, the slowness to get anything done, all the bickering, the arguing, the discussing of every little thing, all the petty details of the job.

It just doesn't suit his personality. The guy has to go home to his Florida Miralago club every weekend and play golf. He's not taking this job seriously. At. All.

And I say good riddance. It's very expensive to keep security around all of his family members who are everywhere! He's not worth the money we're wasting on him.

So I hope Feinstein is right.

He will still get the security detail.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare eliminates mental health coverage from Medicaid on: March 22, 2017, 08:09:10 am
All that I could have wanted with Asperger's is to get away with it -- to have a normal life.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A younger Jerry Brown... on: March 21, 2017, 02:52:14 pm
He would be President now.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would be your EV map prediction for Trump vs. Warren? on: March 21, 2017, 02:51:32 pm



I see no reason now for approval ratings of Donald Trump to be out of the high 30s or low 40s around November 2020 except for them to go deeper into the tank. I see Donald Trump more likely to resign or be removed in accordance with the 25th Amendment than to even come close to getting re-elected.

Against the average challenger a President with a 40% approval rating  is going to get about 46% of the vote in a binary election -- and with a Democratic nominee taking nothing for granted in 2020 Elizabeth Warren won't neglect states that went to Trump late just for some quixotic effort to win Arizona, Georgia, or South Carolina.  Sure, Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 and won because of the distribution of the vote -- but that isn't going to happen again.

14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 21, 2017, 02:28:54 pm
It's still the Obama economy operating on autopilot. When the autopilot falters, then the Trump presidency and the GOP majorities in Congress will be in big trouble if they botch the transition to... whatever. 

I am not saying that we are due for a recession, but if one happens, things can go very bad very fast for the politicians in power. Economic stewardship is one of the measures by which voters judge elected officials. Never forget that. It may not be fair, but such is modern reality. 
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump rolls back protections for people in default on student loans on: March 21, 2017, 02:25:11 pm
Quote
It also can discourage potential students from taking necessary and appropriate risks for starting out in life. The 'pound of flesh' that a creditor demands as collateral is a good reason for youth deciding to stay in the parental abode indefinitely and hold on for dear life to jobs in retail and food service. Ideally those jobs are stopgaps  that people give up for something with a real paycheck. Such is not good for economic growth.

Maybe the best path is for bright kids to take short-term, low-cost, low-yield vocational schooling that teaches them how to do hairdressing, bartending, auto body repair, or the like so that they can work their way through college and not be heavily in debt.  Truth be told, 23-year-old kids who have gone straight through K-12 schooling and then college are not ready to lead much of anything no matter how brilliant except in authoritarian settings such as fast food or the military.

Pretty much. This is why we need serious student loan reform that makes them low interest rate, and subject to stringent federal oversight. Why? Because college and vocational training pay for themselves many times over in an economy that has more people with better skills.



We also need to cull out the educational institutions that deliver a sick joke of an education. I am reminded of the infamous Corinthian Colleges (one of comparatively few big corporations to go under while Barack Obama was President) that attracted people with little suitability for college to sign up for a student loan, had classes easy to complete so long met the mandated co-payment, and gave a vocational diploma practically worthless. Employers did not want graduates of such schools. It was a lucrative business until the Obama Administration took away the ability to sign people up for student loans if the students had high default rates.

What was happening? The schools were spending huge amounts of their revenue on marketing (At the other end, Harvard doesn't have to sell itself) instead of on teaching, educational materials, etc. The schools advertised heavily on daytime reality TV -- the sorts of shows in which  some 'stud' is told "You are the father!", chairs might fly on stage, or there might be a simulated courtroom. Real college students and high school students on the college track watch little TV -- especially daytime TV, let alone the worst bilge on television.  Prospective and current college students aren't loners.

First-rate colleges make few promises of vocational success upon graduation. The object is to make the student a more competent participant in society, and that is usually good enough. Graduate from Harvard and you might join the fast track of the financial world; graduate from MIT and you will join the technical fast track. Attend and graduate from Mediocre State University and you might get a teaching credential. But even some low-end vocational schools can teach a trade at modest cost. There's nothing wrong with being a barber, is there?

Bad schools that charge like an expensive university and give a bad vocational education deserved to go under.  Educational institutions that cheat their students fail when the funds dry up. In the more usual customer-directed businesses, that simply means that the customers do not spend enough there.

It is better that we pay higher taxes and get better futures than overspend on clothes and consumer gadgets. 
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Neil Gorsuch: 'employers should ask women if they want children' on: March 21, 2017, 02:02:52 pm
People can change their minds. The more optimistic people get about their lives, the more likely they are to have children.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Documents show Manafort laundered payments from Ukr. party with Moscow ties on: March 21, 2017, 02:01:29 pm
An American collaborating with a corrupt government overseas to bleed a foreign country on behalf of corrupt leadership?

So long as the prosecution makes a credible case, Manafort could be in deep legal problems.  Manafort looks a bit more admirable than a drug trafficker, but not by much.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NBC: Alabama May Allow Church to Form Own Police Force on: March 21, 2017, 01:57:26 pm
Colleges often have police forces separate from the communities in which the colleges operate. I'm guessing that college students are less likely to commit crimes or even be victimized.  If the church has so much as a theological seminary and has the church as effectively part of its campus, then the church might as well be understood  as having a college police department.

College students have different needs of police work (it's basically patrol for catching non-students intent on committing crimes) than the rest of us. College students are much less likely to commit crimes or even have crimes committed against them.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Neil Gorsuch: 'employers should ask women if they want children' on: March 21, 2017, 01:38:12 pm
I remember seeing columns in which words as uttered by Communists were contrasted to what people in liberal democracies understood them to be. Such a word as "peace" typically means the absence of armed conflict, but in Commie-speak it meant the final defeat of capitalism. Patriotism to most people means aligning with one's country in international disputes; for a Commie it meant allegiance to the Communist cause in one's country. 'Freedom' to a Commie meant the elimination of capitalist exploitation.

When we don't have an overt lie with the current President we often have something loaded in meaning. President Trump can't get enough of the words "winner" and "loser". Ordinarily a winner is one who has achieved greatly or at least won some contest. For President Trump a "winner" is such because of inherent qualities or the luck of being born so rich that one could not spend oneself into ruin.  A loser is such because of his built-in character. Winners are to be praised just for being 'winners'. 'Losers' have and deserve no chance in President Trump's America.     
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Medicare for all introduced in the House - Already has 69 Co-sponsors ! on: March 21, 2017, 01:26:16 pm
Democrats can win nothing until at least 2020; they are playing for 2020.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors confront politicians at town halls megathread on: March 21, 2017, 12:45:48 pm
Republicans broke Town Halls in 2009-2010. Democrats literally copied their playbook.

It's probably a bad thing that getting your message heard means making this Congressman and his staff's lives a living hell for several weeks, but what can be done about it?

This is a consequence of political polarization that started about 20 years ago.  What happened to Obama and Congressional Democrats by design of the Right in 2009 and 2010 has happened to Trump and his Congressional majority. If Republicans attacked President Obama for what he was, Democrats attack Trump for what he does. It has taken much less time for Democrats to cut into Trump support.

Elected pols cannot assume that they can win 52-47 elections indefinitely without trying to cut into the 47. It is not the fault of the opposition that it does not share the core beliefs of those that they do not vote for.

The 47% of the vote against most politicians is relevant. It used to be that constituent service mattered greatly; now ideology and contributor service are  seemingly everything.

It does not help Republicans in the House and Senate that Donald Trump is so unpopular. Gardner in Colorado and Ernst in Iowa have low approval ratings. Was 2014 a freak year? Not after the 2016 election.  Of course they are not up for re-election until 2020.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare eliminates mental health coverage from Medicaid on: March 21, 2017, 12:36:34 pm
"Asperger's" isn't a real diagnosis any more and shouldn't have been one in the first place.
I most cordially disagree.

It was an artificial division within the autism spectrum that in practice functioned as a stratification.
See, I get that, but I also think that whatever I have or had (Aspergers, "high-functioning autism", etc), is clearly different from someone who is completely nonverbal or who cannot handle certain textures, sounds, smells, or substances at all, rather than just being incredibly uncomfortable with them.

I don't know what to classify it as, and I don't want to stratify my diagnosis, but I'm unclear with how to classify it, either academically or in everyday speech. "Autism spectrum disorder" means absolutely nothing to me.

Asperger's creates poor eye contact, rigid thought, and anxiety. In a hyper-competitive environment those traits do not help one. To avoid seeming a freak I must act just to seem normal -- and that shows me as a fake. It may be a benign fake even if I am not a fraud or a liar. It has given me difficulty in relating to people. It has physical manifestations of poor balance and hyper-sensitivity to sound. I could never attend a rock concert.

I can get disability payments for it.  I can imagine life without it: I would be doing very well, thank you. Even if I knew that I had it and could make appropriate adjustments I might simply do well if I could understand my limitations instead of seeing them as character flaws.

In a world with many sociopaths and psychopaths, anyone who seems a fake is assumed to be a cheater.    
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare eliminates mental health coverage from Medicaid on: March 21, 2017, 02:06:53 am
"Asperger's" isn't a real diagnosis any more and shouldn't have been one in the first place.
I most cordially disagree.

It was an artificial division within the autism spectrum that in practice functioned as a stratification.

I received the diagnosis late last year. I do not have the sort of autism that retards language development. I may be considered "high functioning", but... I must act as if I am on a stage just to seem normal, and that makes me seem dishonest. 

I have found that one drink is enough to dissolve the anxiety. How many people go to a therapist and get told, "Have a drink!" Alcohol is more predictable than many of the psychoactive pills which I distrust. One is enough.



Does medical marijuana help with your diagnosis?

I don't use it. 
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 20, 2017, 10:16:20 pm
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (+2)
Disapprove: 55 (-3)

Yeah, seems like it was just noise after all.

Eh, the overall trajectory has still be trending towards negative.

Yeah, 39% is still one of his worst numbers. We'll see.

Just when you wonder whether it can get worse for the President... it gets worse.



Gallup: 37% approve, 58% disapprove.

Sure, it could be statistical noise between days.  It isn't getting prettier. 
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 20, 2017, 09:04:11 pm
Here is a favorability poll of Colorado, conducted March 8-13:

http://gazette.com/hickenlooper-viewed-favorably-trump-less-so-in-new-keatingonsight-colorado-polling/article/1599330

favorable 43%
unfavorable 55%


Favorability:






Approval:






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  
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