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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: September 04, 2016, 07:32:25 am
Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

So if Clinton were replaced with Joe Manchin, West Virginia would look like Kentucky rather than Pennsylvania?

What does the 7 in "18/7" indicate?  18 is the difference between 49 and 31, but what about 7.

Who knows? Ask the person who wrote the script?

Support for Gary Johnson.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Emerson: Clinton +1 on: September 03, 2016, 06:10:06 pm
I am talking about quality and reliability. I don't have a landline phone at home, because reliability and quality isn't as important for households. It is important for businesses and will remain in use there.

It is vital for the military and government and will never be abandoned.


Where the telephone must remain stationary, or for someone who has difficulty using a cellular phone (typically someone very old), landlines will survive. 

One security company now uses cell phones as its means of reporting residential break-ins because crooks can cut telephone wires.

The unreliability of a cell phone, other than failing to pay for the service, is failing to keep the phone charged. Communication on a cell phone can be very, very good. 
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: September 03, 2016, 11:18:42 am
I am giving no weekend projection. We got a huge supply of polls by some entity relatively new to making projections of this election, and these all calibrate badly with what we have seen elsewhere. These, mostly by Emerson College, include polls for New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa... and they are English-only polls for land telephone lines only.

Millions have abandoned land phone lines, people stuck with them to a great extent elderly people who have trouble with the cell phone. English-only? Spanish speakers are more  likely to recognize polls by an English-language pollster as junk calls and not answer them. 

These are far out of line with the reality shown by WMUR-TV in New Hampshire, which shows Hillary Clinton still up by low double digits, and a poll in Kansas that shows Donald Trump up by 7%... and out of line with most national tracking polls.   In any event, PPP is polling Florida this weekend and it ordinarily does a very good job.

PPP did several polls on behalf of an entity that seeks to raise the minimum wage. This is a special-interest group, and I cannot use its polls even if I believe the methodology valid. 
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Emerson: Clinton +1 on: September 03, 2016, 09:56:36 am
With landlines one has an obsolescent technology. If something were to take out the landline grid, then it would not be rebuilt except for highly-specialized purposes. Prime example: after the Second Gulf War that took out the Iraqi telephone structure, the Kurds in the autonomous (and effectively independent, anti-fascist part of Iraq) went practically 100% cellular. Such was cheaper, safer, and more reliable than land lines.  Reliance upon demographics wedded to some obsolete technology implies a distorted sample.

Normal consumer use is not one of those specialized uses. Reliance on landlines will soon be as obsolete as using pre-recorded VHS tapes for entertainment.





105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Emerson: Trump +5 on: September 03, 2016, 07:16:34 am
Let's take a look at the overall activity of the pollster. It hasn't done any polling in a long time and suddenly gives us a large number of polls that show Donald Trump doing much better, and very suddenly, for no apparent reason for him to be doing better.  Every poll looks like veritable wish-fulfillment for a Trump fan.

There is no indication that Donald Trump is doing anything better than he has since the primaries. Really, one could hardly dream up more sympathetic polls after some indication that Hillary Clinton is on a pace to win at least as strongly as Barack Obama in 2008. After one week? Where is the smoking gun?


Yes, PPP did deliver a large number of polls on behalf of an organization whose objective is the raising of the minimum wage, and those suggest no real change. But my rules indicate that because they are for a special-interest group with a partisan bias and they do not fit a need to fill in a poll (in accordance with the principle that beggars can't be choosers, so I would have to accept just about anything involving some states that get polled rarely).

Either there is an inexplicable surge by Donald Trump or there is something screwy with these polls. They have some odd weighting and are land-line only; they do not offer an option for a response in Spanish (important for reaching people who might consider any call in English by a complete stranger as junk).

There likely will be little polling over the weekend, but a poll from New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton winning the state by a landslide margin while landslide margins by which she was allegedly winning in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have all but vanished.
   
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: September 03, 2016, 07:00:09 am
Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

Democrats really messed up when they dominated politics in West Virginia. They failed to invest in the basics like schools and highways. Republicans get their chance in a state that had one resource (coal) for which to depend upon for the few above-average incomes that there were and upon coal miners for votes. Now Republicans get their chance.   
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-WMUR: Clinton crushes Trump, leads him by 11 on: September 02, 2016, 07:15:23 pm
Way out of line with the dump of polls by Emerson College,
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Emerson: Clinton +1 on: September 02, 2016, 05:51:47 pm
44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.

Looks like Emerson has been busy lately, lol.

Busier than everyone else? Busier than everyone else combined, except for some advocacy-group polling by PPP? Something could be fishy here.

Quinnipiac and Marist at most poll three states at a time, and then they rotate among the states in question.  But Emerson College is polling every imaginable swing state?  This looks about as kosher as a ham-and-cheese sandwich with clam sauce on the side, with wine made with libations to Bacchus. 
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: KS-Remington Research: Trump +7 on: September 02, 2016, 11:44:51 am
I can't see Clinton making this competative if she's only polling 37%. most undecideds and Johnsonites will come home to the GOP in the end.

If anything it would be Donald Trump making these states competitive. He is that bad!
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Emerson: Clinton +1 on: September 02, 2016, 11:41:47 am
Lots of polls with an apparent and large house advantage for Republicans?

English only, landline only.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Emerson: Trump +5 on: September 02, 2016, 11:40:11 am
If Emerson College polls indicate how America will vote in November, maybe I do not want to take my blood pressure pills.

They are out of line with national tracking polls. It;s not that some states do better for the Republican in a few states and worse in others; it is that the polls are consistently off. There could be problems of sampling.

I expect more polls of Iowa within the next couple of weeks.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: KS-Remington Research: Trump +7 on: September 02, 2016, 10:16:08 am
Kansas is one of those states where the polls always look closer than they really are.

Donald Trump is not the normal Presidential nominee from a mainstream Party.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USA Today/Suffolk - National: Clinton +7 (2-way/4-way) on: September 02, 2016, 10:14:58 am
This sort of national poll suggests some of the state polls may have been skewed.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: September 01, 2016, 07:44:32 pm
Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed



Hardly consistent with a Trump charge.

Virginia, Emerson College polling:

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.


Extremely consistent with a Trump surge. But note an error -- "Green", and not "Stein" is mentioned. That might tempt me to call a foul.  Not using this.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  




Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: September 01, 2016, 01:52:38 pm
A large number of polls from a group dedicated to raising the minimum wage. Even if they are compiled by PPP, a very good pollster, I can't use them.

Arizona (Trump +3): Trump 46, Clinton 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AZResults1.pdf

Missouri (Trump +6): Trump 47, Clinton 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MOResults1.pdf

New Hampshire (Clinton +6): Clinton 46, Trump 40

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NHResults1.pdf

North Carolina (Clinton +1): Clinton 45, Trump 44

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCResults1.pdf

Ohio (Clinton +4): Clinton 46, Trump 42

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OhioResults1.pdf

Pennsylvania (Clinton +5): Clinton 48, Trump 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PAResults1.pdf

Wisconsin (Clinton +7): Clinton 48, Trump 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WIResults1.pdf

Should these be valid, then Donald Trump has no chance.

You are welcome to try to convince me to use these.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is the race tightening? on: September 01, 2016, 01:49:22 pm
Trump didn't say stupid sh*t for a while.

Yesterday, he gave up and did it again.

That happened. Democrats will not let him get away with anything going into November.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nebraska on: September 01, 2016, 01:47:58 pm
Usually Safe R -- but Donald Trump is the worst Republican nominee for President since Goldwater.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Michigan - Emerson Polling: Clinton +5 on: August 31, 2016, 09:41:42 pm
Landline and polling only in English? That could be troublesome.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AZ-Breitbart/Gravis: Trump +4 on: August 31, 2016, 08:09:36 pm
A poll by Breitbart is the best news for Democrats on what must be the most dreadful day in polling this year for them.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 31, 2016, 08:08:04 pm
We may be seeing a Trump charge now. What I first thought were anomalous polls may not be so anomalous.
Monmouth University, Pennsylvania:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_083016/

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 40%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

There  are some polls by an entity called Emerson College, but they are screwy enough to be suspect.

WISCONSIN:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/31/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-edge-over-trump-narrowing-to-pre-convention-levels-among-wisconsin-voters/

RV:
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%


Clinton - 37%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 7%

LV:
Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%


Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Your choice on which you go with. Marquette recently had Clinton up by double digits

Some polls from Emerson College:

New York



North Carolina



Michigan



Pennsylvania:



Ohio:



Arizona, Breitbart/Gravis:

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 40%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 1%

Poll was of 1,244 likely Arizona voters conducted on August 27th.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/31/exclusive-breitbartgravis-arizona-presidential-poll-trump-44-clinton-40-with-johnson-8-stein-1/

Also from Arizona:

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-73630F4BD52B12D8

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 1%

Conducted August 25-27. 728 LV. Rated C+ on 538.

Useless because it is a tie.



West Virginia:

I doubt that anyone can dispute this even if it is by an obscure pollster .

Trump 49%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Undecided 6%

386 LV; August 8-29; MOE +/- 4.7%

Source: http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-trump-still-the-choice-of-mountain-state-voters/



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  




Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

It may have.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Clinton +3 on: August 31, 2016, 07:31:27 pm
So Donald Trump has gone a week without making a fool of himself. Miraculum miraculorum!

What looked like junky polls seem genuine enough now.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pennsylvania - Emerson Polling: Clinton + 3 on: August 31, 2016, 10:17:09 am
...Clinton up 3 in Pennsylvania but down 1.5% in North Carolina? Junk, unless America is becoming less polarized. 
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why doesn't social conservatism work with Blacks? on: August 31, 2016, 02:44:47 am
Conservatism may mean something very different to blacks than to whites, on the whole. It is possible to express cultural conservatism while rejecting class privilege. Very few black people will ever endorse any white politician of any kind who endorses or even seems to hint at an endorsement of any genetic inequality of black people.


But even with blacks whose demographics are similar to those of white people who ordinarily vote for conservatives, like entrepreneurs and business owners, may have less of a stake in conservative ideology. The black owner of a small chain of grocery stores may have a clientele that relies heavily upon food aid; a black physician or dentist may rely heavily upon clients  getting government-subsidized medical aid. Such entrepreneurs and professionals  will often show themselves more concerned with revenue sources than with taxes as would be so with  white business owners who have a middle-class clientele.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2024: After two terms of Trump on: August 31, 2016, 02:27:18 am
Don't worry about a second term of Donald Trump; sweat out the first. He will bring about either an economic disaster as did Herbert Hoover or a diplomatic disaster as did Jimmy Carter, and the Democrats will run nominate one of the two Senators from Minnesota. Donald Trump or Mike Pence will end up with about 50 electoral votes as Republicans lose even what now liik like safe states for them.

 
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 30, 2016, 05:33:04 pm
Monmouth University, Pennsylvania:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_083016/

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 40%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

There  are some polls by anentity called Emerson College, but they are screwey enough to be suspect.





Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.













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