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December 05, 2016, 11:43:07 am
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CCES/YouGov: Clinton +4 and all 50 states on: November 07, 2016, 08:57:32 pm
I doubt that coal will be a significant part of the economic future of either Kentucky or West Virginia.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 07, 2016, 08:55:16 pm
Odd set of polls, not so much for the results as they for for refuting some recent outlier polls that seemed way out of line. Gravis has been sort of OK without Breitbart, but its polls for Breitbart have been strongly for Trump.

These fellows might prefer to be accurate at the end so that they can't be seen as glaringly wrong after the election.

Game over. Cue the "death" music for Pac-Man or the, the 'goat' motif from Let's Make a Deal, or the 'loser' riff on The Price Is Right.

I intend to close this thread in a couple of hours. Please comment now. Polls are forecasts. Tomorrow will feature the most important election in a long time in America.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 07, 2016, 08:38:11 pm
Here's another.

Clinton 42.9
Trump 39.0
Johnson 4.7
Stein 0.9

84,292 LV interviewed

50 state roundup:

Alabama: Trump +21
Alaska: Trump +0.3 (with Johnson at 12)
Arizona: Trump +8.5
Arkansas: Trump +17.5
California: Clinton +21.4
Colorado: Clinton +5.2 (Johnson at 6)
Connecticut: Clinton +10.8
Delaware: Clinton +19.1
DC: Clinton +73
Florida: Clinton +1.1
Georgia: Trump +4.9
Hawaii: Clinton +26.3
Idaho: Trump +19.5
Illinois: Clinton +15.2
Indiana: Trump +7.2
Iowa: Clinton +3.1
Kansas: Trump +15.9
Kentucky: Trump +20
Louisiana: Trump +11.4
Maine: Clinton +4.7-----Johnson at 8.5, Stein at 3.8
Maryland: Clinton +25.8
Massachusetts: Clinton +22.7
Michigan: Clinton +6
Minnesota: Clinton +6.4
Mississippi: Trump +6
Missouri: Trump +7.5
Montana: Trump +12.4
Nebraska: Trump +12.6
Nevada: Clinton +1.6
New Hampshire: Clinton +8.6
New Jersey: Clinton +12
New Mexico: Clinton +7.1 (Johnson at 11.4)
New York: Clinton +21.3
North Carolina: Clinton +2.2
North Dakota: Trump +12.5
Ohio: Clinton +1.7
Oklahoma: Trump +26.6
Oregon: Clinton +7.8
Pennsylvania: Clinton +1.5
Rhode Island: Clinton +17.8
South Carolina: Trump +11
South Dakota: Trump +18.3
Tennessee: Trump +14.6
Texas: Trump +7.9
Utah: Trump +9.1 (Trump 33, Clinton 24)
Vermont: Clinton +16 (Stein at 5)
Virginia: Clinton +9.1
Washington: Clinton +15.7
West Virginia: Trump +28.3
Wisconsin: Clinton +4.5
Wyoming: Trump +32.8

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20161107_50_1.pdf

104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis/Breitbart: Clinton leads FL +1, NM +8, VA +5, NC +1, MI +5 on: November 07, 2016, 07:42:22 pm
Breitbart throws in the towel.

Game over.

Cue "Contestant loses" riff from The Price Is Right.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 2 on: November 07, 2016, 07:32:40 pm
New pollster with an agenda issuing polls that violate all common sense. The poll matches a narrative for an event that did not happen. 

106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Trump win MI? on: November 06, 2016, 10:00:33 am
Whites-only election or property-owners-only election.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Early vote vs. Election Day on: November 06, 2016, 09:25:10 am
Nobody is going to care what some random group of Trump supporters' exit polls say.

We will be looking more at numbers (after all, elections are won by numbers and not by opinions or their fervency) than anything else.

Even absentee ballots seem to be going for Hillary Clinton.  
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pope Francis: beware tyrants who want to Build Walls, exploit fear and despair on: November 06, 2016, 09:23:27 am
I'd rather have the Pope on my side than Putin.

True.

As Abraham Lincoln said, we need concern ourselves more that we be on God's side than that God be on our side.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 06, 2016, 09:20:51 am
My prediction, Sunday morning before Election Day, with only one allowable tie:

Hillary Clinton (D)  vs. Donald Trump (R)




Tie -- white

solid -- 10% or more, saturation 7
firm -- 5 to 9.99%, saturation 5
shaky -- less than 5% , saturation 2  

110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 06, 2016, 08:59:42 am
The state that will give the weirdest of all possible results, Utah:

https://www.scribd.com/document/330023731/UTAH-Final

Trump - 35
Clinton - 29
McMullin - 24
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton +5 on: November 06, 2016, 07:59:33 am
Why are all polls showing Hispanics voting more for Trump though?  Are they all wrong?  Or do white Democrats not understand Hispanics because they're ivory tower and out of touch?  Stay tuned!  The answer is coming on Tuesday night.

Many Hispanics in New Mexico are descended in part from Spanish settlers in New Mexico in very early times. Some of course would by necessity intermarry with the First Peoples due to the high male-female ratio (which really makes them American!) Many have significant Anglo ancestry. I'm guessing that Hispanic culture can as fully assimilate persons of "Anglo" origin (which includes Irish, Germans, Italians, etc.) as Anglo culture can assimilate Hispanic people.



Much of the Hispanic population in New Mexico is NOT of recent immigrant origin.    
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 on: November 06, 2016, 05:34:11 am
Urban minority voters of course see Donald Trump as a threat or at least an anathema. If one rents one sees Donald Trump as the plutocrat who draws the rental payments, someone who get easy money for owning scarce property that allows one to live in the proximity of one's job. If one is a tenant in a giant city Donald Trump reminds you of someone who disposes of much of your personal income. You may see a 'property management company' that seems to simply collect an ever-increasing rental as an exploiter, and Donald Trump as a manifestation of such.

But what if you own your own farm or your own abode (however humble) or have an employer supplying housing to you (possible for a farm laborer)? Someone like Donald Trump is not the problem as an economic drain.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 05, 2016, 08:37:49 pm
California, Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner


Clinton 54%
Trump 30%
Johnson 4%
Stein 3%

Good pollster, but nearly a one-Party state. Good for calibrating sure-win states for Clinton.
Georgia:

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/

Trump - 49% (50)
Clinton - 45% (46)
Johnson - 6% (3)

Clinton is still winning the early vote: 51% to 43%
Trump wins day-of voters: 57% to 34%

Trump wins 65% of white voters; Clinton wins 80% of black voters


Iowa, Selzer, Des Moines Register

Trump - 46%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

Poll conducted Nov 1-4.

At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump. That’s a testament to her campaign’s heavy focus on banking votes during Iowa’s 40-day early vote period. But the data indicate it will not be enough to overcome Trump's support.

Voters who have already cast their ballots represent 34 percent of poll respondents. Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32.

Among other groups, meanwhile, Clinton’s lead is significantly lower than the advantage she enjoys nationally. She holds just a 3-point lead among women, for example, a demographic Democrats have been banking on to reject Trump and lift Clinton and one that she leads by a dozen or more points in national polls.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90

New Mexico -- Albuquerque Journal:

https://www.abqjournal.com/883092/clinton-still-ahead-in-new-mexico.html

Clinton 45% (+10)
Trump 40% (+9)
Johnson 11% (-13)
Stein 3% (+1)

New York (as if there should be any surprise, but this is good for calibration of sure-win states for Hillary Clinton:

http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/486bf15f-bd24-43fa-988f-79ba63efc430.pdf

NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4

Compared to    OCT. 13-17  

Clinton    51 (-3)
Trump    34  (+4)
Johnson   5
Stein        2

Ohio, Columbus Dispatch:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Clinton 48%
Trump 47%

The Ohio poll gives me enough data for a state-by-state prediction.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO: Trafalgar - Clinton + 1 on: November 05, 2016, 06:42:44 pm
Trump will narrowly win here.

Donald Trump wins Michigan only if he gets about 340 electoral votes at the minimum and wins the popular vote about 55-45.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1 on: November 05, 2016, 05:54:19 pm
I was tempted to make my final prediction a few minutes ago... I am now waiting for the Selzer poll of Iowa.   
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 05, 2016, 05:17:03 pm
According to a "news" story on  GOP Pravda (a/k/a FoX News), Donald Trump has momentum on his side as the election providentially closes up.  

Meanwhile CNN has a poll showing Hillary Clinton up 2 in Florida.

117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP - MI, CO, VA: Clinton +5 in 3 states on: November 04, 2016, 04:21:31 pm
I actually think PPP undersamples Latino's with robo polls. I expect her to outperform her polling avg in Colorado and Nevada from PPP.
...oprima en la dos.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 04, 2016, 03:11:51 pm
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/11/clinton-leads-by-5-in-firewall-states.html

Virginia:

Clinton 48
Trump 43
Johnson 4
Stein 1
McMullin 1

Michigan:

Clinton 46
Trump 41
Johnson 6
Stein 2

Colorado:

Clinton 48
Trump 43
Johnson 4
Stein 2
McMullin 1

FYI: These are the final PPP public polls this cycle.

Game over.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP - MI, CO, VA: Clinton +5 in 3 states on: November 04, 2016, 03:10:13 pm
I was polled.

In case anyone wonders whether these were push polls... there was no mention of the group and no mention of any issues. This poll is good -- very clean.  

Game over, indeed. Donald Trump had to win at least one of these three states, Florida, and North Carolina even if he was winning Iowa.  

120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What share of the Jewish vote will Trump get? on: November 04, 2016, 01:47:17 pm
Very low. Jews distrust religious bigotry of any kind, as bigotry against any religion can easily be turned against Jews.

...It is remarkable that when the Jews really controlled Hollywood around 1940 they made a seemingly-unlikely stock hero: the Catholic priest. But Catholics were not yet completely accepted in American life, and there was much garbage out about Catholicism.

Jews might have also wanted to isolate Father Coughlin.   
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Iowa and why? on: November 04, 2016, 01:43:16 pm
I have seen nothing so far this year to suggest that Hillary Clinton will win Iowa.

Iowa went to Democrats on ethanol subsidies.

Iowa could be the new West Virginia.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will we know the winner of the election when the Florida results come in? on: November 04, 2016, 01:41:52 pm
Donald Trump cannot win without Florida. Hillary Clinton can win without Florida.

If Hillary Clinton has a decisive lead in Florida, then she wins early.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Clinton bounced back from Comeygate? on: November 04, 2016, 01:40:00 pm
Item for quick panic and slow reflection.

Think about it: the FBI is very secretive about its investigations. It does not release data from an investigation until required to do so by law, typically in the indictment, either at the trial itself, under circumstances damaging to a defendant who might be badgered into a confession or into self-incrimination, or under circumstances that might make an arrest more likely. I have no problem with that; that is good law enforcement and prosecution.

124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH: Gravis/Breitbart - Trump + 2 on: November 04, 2016, 01:35:07 pm
Gravis for Breitbart -- junk in the sense of heroin for a junkie, the political equivalent of which is someone who wants to believe that Donald Trump will be the next President.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: November 04, 2016, 01:33:17 pm
My next map will probably be some comparison of the completed 2016 Presidential election to that of some other Presidential election.
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