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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MN-Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon: Clinton +13 on: May 01, 2016, 10:46:46 pm
I'm still sure Rubio could have put MN in play.

Rubio? If he couldn't remain popular in a Lean R state (Florida), what causes anyone to think that he would do well in Minnesota? Kasich might put Minnesota in play in a 40-state landslide... if the political dynamics remained as they were around a month ago.

Minnesota does not swing much. It may have gone decisively for Obama in 2008, but not by the blowout margins by which he won in a bunch of other states. It was the worst state for Reagan in 1984 and the second-worst for Nixon in 1972 in 49-state blowouts.

The last Republican to win Minnesota decisively was Dwight Eisenhower. But overlay elections of Obama and Eisenhower and you will see some amazing coincidences for two Presidents from the opposite Parties. (Then again, I see similarities of temperament that probably fit some political cultures of some states, and I figure that both Presidents were similarly effective and will be so regarded in the future). 
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WV: MetroNews shows Trump leading with 40, Sanders leading with 57 on: May 01, 2016, 10:15:42 pm
If Sanders is doing this well in WV, shouldn't he be polling a bit better TN? Maybe not winning there, but at least keeping it in single digits?

WV and TN aren't really all that comparable despite both being Appalachian.

True. Tennessee has some medium-sized cities (Memphis and Nashville), and far more blacks.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Senator Approval Rating among home state voters - Sanders 1st, McConnell last on: May 01, 2016, 10:08:19 pm
Mitch McConnell either retires or is defeated in 2020.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Donald Trump made me proud to be Hispanic on: May 01, 2016, 10:05:17 pm
Burning a national flag is an insult to that country. Of course I can fully understand someone burning a Soviet flag as a protest of its lack of political freedom, let alone the swastika flag of Nazi Germany. But those flags indicated an ideology. Burning the flag of Ba'athist Iraq? Sure. It was a murderous regime. A Confederate flag?  The Confederate flags were associated with the defense of slavery, an abomination to any decent person. 

Burning a national flag that has only a connection to a nation is a puerile deed. Someone who burns the flag of the UK at a soccer match between his non-British team and a British team is offensive. But back to Old Glory: it means something. Forty-eight stars and thirteen stripes marched into Dachau and Mauthausen, signaling an end to the criminal management of those close simulations of Hell.

People do great harm to their cause by burning a US flag and no good.     
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-NBC/WSJ-Marist: All Republicans ahead of Clinton on: May 01, 2016, 09:40:45 pm
Winning Indiana by 7 means that Trump or Cruz will be losing the US as a whole by 5-6%. Indiana really does swing in elections; Republicans can win it in normal years by anything from about 3% to about 20%. (Going for Obama in 2008 was something of a fluke; the RV industry, whose workers are comparatively conservative, turned against Republicans when their market was hit by a combination of a credit crunch, sky-high gas prices, and as general downturn in the economy... and Obama campaigned in Indiana as if he needed the state). Obama lost the state in 2012 by about 10% because the economic triple-whammy was no longer in effect (he would have lost the state by about 20% had even one of the components of the triple-whammy were in effect in 2012) and because he could not campaign in Indiana. 

On the other side, if the Democratic nominee is winning Rhode Island (which is about as D as Indiana is R) by 7%, then the Democratic nominee is losing by about 5# nationwide.

Indiana does swing, but it almost always remains just out of reach of a Democratic nominee.

Or even more simply, Indiana is about 8% more Republican than Ohio, and if the Republican isn't winning Indiana by a double-digit margin, then he is also losing Ohio. 
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: May 01, 2016, 02:28:26 am
Minnesota.

Sanders 53
Trump 38

Sanders 50
Cruz 36

http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race.pdf

Indiana. Marist. Are we going to see lots of polls of Indiana this year?


Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)
Sanders (D) vs. Cruz (R): 48%-45% (D+3)
Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356

Ohio, PPP. I have much more to say below involving Hillary Clinton.  

Sanders 44 Trump 35
Kasich 47 Sanders 37
Sanders 45 Trump 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf

West Virginia, PPP:

Donald Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 57%-30% (R+27)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 44%-31% (R+13)
John Kasich (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 52%-27% (R+25)

Donald Trump (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 56%-35% (R+21)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 40%-39% (R+1)
John Kasich (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 48%-31% (R+17)

Obama approval rating: 28/67 (-39)
Clinton favorability: 23/71 (-48)
Trump favorability: 47/45 (+2)
Cruz favorability: 21/64 (-43)
Kasich favorability: 32/47 (-15)
Sanders favorability: 30/60 (-30)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-sanders-lead-in-west-virginia.html

I have much to say about Donald Trump and the demise of the Democratic Party in West Virginia in a subsequent post.  When West Virginia ever goes Democratic again, it will be for a fiery populist who can address the economic issues of West Virginians.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: May 01, 2016, 02:25:31 am
Minnesota.

Clinton 48
Trump 35

Clinton 49
Cruz 40

Sanders 53
Trump 38

Sanders 50
Cruz 36

http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race.pdf

Another involving Indiana, this time by Marist:

Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D): 48%-41% (R+7)
Cruz (R) vs. Clinton (D): 50%-43% (R+7)
Kasich (R) vs. Clinton (D): 56%-39% (R+17)

Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)
Sanders (D) vs. Cruz (R): 48%-45% (D+3)
Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How does Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico trend GOP? on: April 30, 2016, 10:57:51 pm
Unfortunately, after this election with Trump being the standard bearer for the GOP, the country's politics will be even more divided by race. I just don't see the GOP getting many Hispanic and Asian votes in the future, not to mention Blacks. The only way I don't see that happening is if Trump suffers a historic loss and the Republican party deliberately goes a different direction after 2016. I doubt that will happen.

Under that scenario, only Colorado might still vote Republican. I don't see that happening though and I see the west becoming even more Democratic while the midwest moves more towards the GOP. It is whites out east who are more receptive to a racist message, as we can see in the current Republican primaries.
Well the Northeast is "Trump Country" because he lives there mostly being the factor as to why people vote for him. The Southeast that is different because of race yes.

In the primaries. Do you really think that the Republican Party in the northeastern quadrant of America is representative of the states as whole?
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is NH still a swing state? on: April 30, 2016, 10:55:06 pm
Too small and inconclusive to campaign in, and too far from any imaginable swing state. If Donald Trump has to defend Arizona or Georgia he will have to neglect New Hampshire. Democrats have lots of volunteers from Massachusetts. Media are expensive in New Hampshire.

Fringe of contention, mirror image of Georgia.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: America with a multi party system on: April 30, 2016, 10:50:27 pm
This election has made it clear to me that the United States desperately needs a center right "Liberal" party.  Wouldnt you all say that people like Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Dick Cheney belong in the same party at this point? Bernie, Ted, and Donald have made it clear as day that the center of US politics is not welcome in the two parties anymore.

We have a center-right Party already. It is the Democratic Party. The Republican Party has gone semi-fascist.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: April 30, 2016, 04:15:28 pm
100 years apart, overlay between William Howard Taft and Barack Obama, 1908/2008.

Taft (R) 51.6/321 - Bryan (D) 43.0/162 - Debs (S) 2.8/0
Obama (D) 52.9/365- McCain (R) 45.6/173

Similar percentages of the electoral vote for the winners.



Taft/ McCain blue
Taft/Obama yellow
Bryan/Obama red
Bryan/McCain green

Bryan won all of the former secessionist states, Colorado, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Nevada.  Bryan won seven states by 9% or less; Taft won six states by 9% or less.  Other states were blow-outs.

Clearly different in 1908 from a century later: Alaska, Arizona, Dee Cee,  Hawaii, and New Mexico weren't voting. There was no television or even radio in 1908. Above all, several Southern states did not have free and fair elections (blacks were effectively barred from voting).

Now what if the polarization is on the side of the winner?

FDR (D) 53.4/432 - Dewey (R) 45.9/99  
Obama (D) 52.9/365- McCain (R) 45.6/173

Arizona and New Mexico were voting this time; radio (but not TV) was very much a part of American life. America was well unified in a war going very well in 1944.  Alaska and Hawaii, let alone the District of Columbia, would not vote in 1944. Several states in the South still had no free elections.



FDR/Obama
FDR/McCain
Dewey/McCain
Dewey/Obama

FDR lost only four states by 14% or more, and only three by 5% to 9% (none between 9% to 14%).  His other losses were by 5% or less. He won the other 41 states at the time. Nine were by 5% or less, and another five by 5% to 9%. He won the 22 others by 9% or more.

It is enough to know that Barack Obama won enough states to win with the tipping-point state as Iowa, which he won by 9.54%. He had Reagan-like margins in his wins but Mondale-like losses in many states that he lost. Obama lost fourteen states by 14% or more.

America was terribly rifted in 2008. The 1944 election is a ratification of the successes of one of the most effective Presidents ever. People may disagree on who the greatest, second-greatest, and third-greatest Presidents were, but in some order those are Washington, Lincoln, and FDR. The 2008 election followed a President whose sole success was in getting re-elected.

   

112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Future tipping-point states? on: April 30, 2016, 02:44:02 pm
Virginia 2016 barring a Democratic blowout, Minnesota (because it does not swing much) in a Democratic  blowout. In a 57-42 blowout, Minnesota might go 57-42 because that is about how I would expect Minnesota to go in a D blowout. In an R blowout -- it was the second-worst state for Nixon in 1972 and the worst state for Reagan in 1984.

I had a list of tipping-point states going back to the 1980s; as I recall Michigan was the tipping-point state in 1984.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Clinton beats Trump by 8 and Cruz by 10 on: April 30, 2016, 01:39:18 pm
So it's a single digit race between the two likely nominees... don't screw up Hillary.

High single-digit difference. For the Presidential election, anything over 4% is a comfortable lead, at least for the time. 4% is the margin of error in most polls.

Most likely there is some statistical correlation in binary races between the margin of popular vote and the electoral vote. Of course one would expect a similarity between this election

Roosevelt 53.4 (432 EV) - Dewey 45.9  (99 EV)

and this one:

Obama 52.9 (365 EV) - McCain 45.6 (173 EV)

The first is seen as a big landslide and the second isn't. OK, FDR had the South locked up and the Republicans had the South mostly locked up.

Another good analogue for 2008 might be 1908:

Taft 51.6 (321) - Bryan 43.0 (162)

Obama and Taft both did well outside the South, but very badly in the South. Taft generally won close elections Up North, except in Nebraska (Bryan's home state) and some western states in which mining still figured an important part of the economy.

(That would be good for an overlay. You guessed it -- I am doing that one next!) 
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Clinton beats Trump by 8 and Cruz by 10 on: April 30, 2016, 01:20:52 pm
That looks like an analogue for 2008 with huge polarization between the states ... and 1944 if the Obama-era polarization has abated.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USA Today/Suffolk National Poll: Clinton +11 on: April 30, 2016, 10:10:34 am
Kasich and Sanders are irrelevances... frankly, so are national polls at this point.

I prefer state polls because... well, 2000. So far they show Hillary Clinton winning just about everything that Obama won in 2012 while expanding the map (especially if the nominee is Donald Trump).

A two-way race in which the Democrat wins by 10-12% of the popular vote? Not since 1940!
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Donald Trump made me proud to be Hispanic on: April 30, 2016, 01:03:49 am
Hispanics have a strong tendency to assimilate non-Hispanics into their culture.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary reach 55% in the upcoming general election against Trump? on: April 30, 2016, 01:02:18 am
That will take winning like Obama in the North and like Carter in 1976  in the South. Such is incompatible with the political culture of our time.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe your reaction if you wake up to this result on Nov 9th on: April 30, 2016, 01:00:39 am
Wishing that I were German instead of being a German-American.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Donald Trump made me proud to be Hispanic on: April 29, 2016, 10:33:44 pm
The rush of Americans to identify as anything except American is an embarrassing denouement to end what was once at least a plausibly great (aka passably acceptable) nation.

A great America is first a good America. Trump would debase America, so he could not make America great, whether for the first time or 'again'.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe your reaction if you wake up to this result on Nov 9th on: April 29, 2016, 06:30:06 pm
Amusement at how we've reached rock bottom, combined with relief that the radical left will be kept in check.

Simmering resentments among America's underclass will erupt.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: April 29, 2016, 06:13:51 pm

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump




This looks good, except for the fact that this is not an ordinary year, it's not close, and thus Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada (and arguably Virginia and Colorado) are lean D certainly and SC is at least Lean R if not pure tossup.

If you apply demographics based on national polls, SC is about even.

I'm deliberately charitable to Donald Trump so far on estimating what the battleground states are.

 
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IBD/TIPPP National poll: Clinton +7 against Trump AND Cruz on: April 29, 2016, 06:09:52 pm
Quote
However, Clintonís ongoing email scandal makes her vulnerable. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of those following the scandal say Clinton likely compromised national security by using a private email server for government-related work while secretary of state. More than a third of Democrats (38%) believe this.

And 70% say she should drop out of the race if the FBI investigation finds she broke the law.  Almost half of Democrats (44%) would want her to do so.

So much for this being a "fringe" position.

...Which is nothing like the scandal of the Trump campaign roughing up hecklers and protesters.

Elect Donald Trump and you will see social unrest even worse than that of the 1960s.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe your reaction if you wake up to this result on Nov 9th on: April 29, 2016, 03:47:19 pm
Ask that all my contributions to political sites be deleted.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: April 28, 2016, 11:04:21 pm
I don't see Utah for Hillary. Wink

Two polls suggesting a virtual tie.

Donald Trump is doing much worse than other potential Republican nominees in Utah and much worse than Republicans in other statewide elections. That is a warning sign of a big difference.

So what does it matter if Donald Trump ends up winning Utah 53-47 instead of 70-30? Maybe not the piddling six electoral votes of Utah... but it also means that he is a horrible cultural match for LDS voters in other states -- like Arizona.  Gut the usual Mormon support for any Republican, and a state that has lots of Mormons might not lean so Republican. Donald Trump could bet a double-whammy in Arizona as the large Mexican-American population votes strongly against him.

The real problem for Donald Trump isn't Utah; it's Arizona. But if he loses Arizona he is also losing Nevada and Colorado as well -- and the Presidential election.

For another analogue, just consider another state that usually goes Republican: Indiana. If it goes 52-48 R, then what does that mean? Basically, the Republican has lost Ohio.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Is Donald Trump actually a Liberal Democrat? on: April 28, 2016, 10:54:10 pm
He does about the harm that one would expect  of a mole... but unlike the usual mole he seems to believe what he says.  
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