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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7 on: August 08, 2016, 04:54:02 pm
Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761532763526860800?lang=en

Republicans have been doing very well in the South, so there's no room for Trump to improve...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762303397978525696

Also, metro ATL has a highly educated population. The Republicans inside Atlanta voted Rubio strongly.



This map would probably explain Trump's support in Nevada as well, along with part of the Clinton trends in CO and VA.

Amazing!

Now I catch onto the narrowness of Clinton leads in Nevada. Badly as Donald Trump is doing with the college-educated white vote, i can see him faring incredibly badly in Colorado and Virginia, giving possible openings to Clinton in Georgia, Arizona, Utah, and Kansas. He could pick up Nevada and ME-02...But he could put Texas at risk.

Formal education makes one less sympathetic to demagogues. Clinton (neither, really) isn't one. Obama, Romney, McCain.... no! Dubya? For all his faults -- no. Not Kerry or Gore. Not Dole. Definitely not the elder Bush. Not really Perot. Reagan? No. Mondale? Certainly not.

Educated voters, whatever their ethnicity, are the dream voters if one can get them. They can vote across regional, religious, and ethnic lines. They vote if they can (that is, if they are citizens). Even if they lack the funds for making donations, they have the time for volunteering for their Parties. If they are stressed for time, then they have funds for making donations. They can hold their own in political conversations as badly-educated people can't.
 
A high level of formal education used to be a good proxy for Republican voting. In 2008 it became a good proxy for Democratic voting.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Susquehanna: Clinton +10 in PA on: August 08, 2016, 04:30:04 pm
This could be one state where Trump brings down Toomey.

In what other state could he bring down Toomey?

He might take down Portman in Ohio, Rubio in Florida, Grassley in Iowa, McCain in Arizona....

Kirk (IL) and Johnson (WI) would have gone down on their own.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton has a 272 EV Firewall. on: August 08, 2016, 04:26:29 pm
One after another state that Donald Trump must win seems to slip away with many swing-state or fringe-of-competition states.

When the swing states are Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, then the Republican now has a chance based on winning every one of those states.  

When the swing states are Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, then the Democrat has a chance of winning only by winning all of those states. Replace Virginia with Wisconsin in that list and the Democrat is going to lose.

When the swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri, then the Republican has lost.    

We will likely see polls of Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio very soon... Indiana not very often.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 08, 2016, 10:28:30 am
Another Georgia poll from JMC Enterprises (whatever that is):

   
GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7
on: Today at 08:53:24 am    

Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

GOP disaster in the making.

Utah, Dan Jones --

37% Trump (R)
25% Clinton (D)
16% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

21% Other/Undecided

But this includes polling from during the Republican National Convention.  I cannot use this, but if I did I would have to show a tie based upon my rules here. Dan Jones has been an active pollster and has gotten capricious results -- is Utah becoming capricious in its voting this year?

Donald Trump should be blowing Hillary Clinton away here with something like 6o-30 by now if he were a normal Republican nominee.

Kentucky, Google poll:

Donald Trump (R): 41%
Hillary Clinton (D): 25%

The survey was conducted from Tuesday, August 2 to Thursday, August 4.

http://www.lex18.com/story/32707654/babbage-cofounder-poll-trump-and-paul-holding-commanding-leads-in-ky-races

Might have a bias toward people with computer access, thus perhaps undersampling the very poor white population of southeastern Kentucky. I see no reason for anyone to believe that Hillary Clinton will win Kentucky.

Illinois:

Quote
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6SzduOV96VkRtTlk/view
Clinton: 51
Trump: 32

They're a Democratic firm so take it with the appropriate salt.

Probably close to being right.

Pennsylvania, Susquehanna (usually a Republican-leaning pollster):

Clinton 47
Trump 37

https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/toplines-statewideabc27-aug16.pdf

Doesn't change anything.


Missouri, Remington (R)

Trump 44
Clinton 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

https://www.stlmag.com/news/in-missouri-voter-polls-president-governor/

Comes off as a tie. Possible Republican disaster in the making.

The big one -- North Carolina, PPP:

43% Clinton (D)
41% Trump (R)
7% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

47% Clinton (D)
46% Trump (R)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-leads-in-nc-for-first-time-since-march.html

Except perhaps for South Carolina, Hillary Clinton could win every state on the I-95 corridor.

...In case someone polls Colorado, Ohio, or Wisconsin, I will could a new map tomorrow.





Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.





105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7 on: August 08, 2016, 10:24:29 am
Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA on: August 08, 2016, 07:39:11 am
The Democratic edge in Nevada registration has been growing since the caucuses and they are far ahead of of the Republicans. The facts don't back up anything you are saying.

Of course Democrats > Republicans in Nevada.

But not as this skewed Poll

1. Nevada: CBS News/YouGov. Aug, 2-5 990 LV
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0
Total 990 LV
Total 392 democratic LV (39.59%)
Total 274 republican LV  (27.67%)
Democrats: +11.92%

2. Last updated: 8/1/2016 8:36 AM.  
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4373
Total 1571775 registered voters.
Total 631742 Democrats in Nevada  (40.192%)
Total 526177 Republicans in Nevada (33.476%)
Democrats: +6.716% in Nevada

DEM-REP (margins) = +5.2% overweighted

#unskewthepoll = Actually TRUMP takes the leads about +1~2% of this NV Poll.


You need a good explanation of why polls differ from year to year from valid analogies. One typically begins with the results of the previous years and looks for causes in differences from the previous year. Causes include:

1. differences in the quality of the candidates: thus Bill Clinton is not Mike Dukakis and Barack Obama isn't John Kerry.

2. effectiveness of campaigning

3. general satisfaction of people with economics and foreign events

4. demographic change within the states.

5. cultural change that might have a partisan effect.

Your argument misses those.

Mass observation and not your opinion of the candidate (think of all those partisan Democrats who said "Ronald Reagan is simply horrible" or highly-partisan Republicans who thought Obama was the worst thing to ever happen to America). Those were out of touch with America.

"No mo' Ron '84" was a bumper sticker that I remember from 1984. I saw a bumper sticker that reads "OBAMA -- One Big-A$$-Mistake-America" recently.

Ignore those. 
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Arkansas on: August 07, 2016, 09:56:04 pm
The state's former First Lady will not win the state in which she was First Lady. The state's political culture has transformed from populist and slightly progressive for the South to Hard Right. 
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your reaction if Donald Trump loses Utah on: August 07, 2016, 09:45:07 pm
While Trump may have some characteristics similar to some of the founders of LDS (the Mormon Church), he could not be more different from what LDS stands for today. Most of Trump's outlandish ideas go against the ethics and morality of the church.  Since the 70s and the "corporization" of LDS, their values are even less congruent with someone like Trump. And since over 50% of UT is in the church (I believe that only SLC and Park City have non-Mormon majorities), his loss there would not be a huge surprise.

However, I do not think Libertarians can win, just split the Republican vote. If anything, this is an opportunity for UT to get some relevance in Democratic policy making - if there ever was a chance for the Democrats to be relevant in UT, this is it. If Clinton has true leadership abilities, she should be able to capitalize on this.

Except that Adlai Stevenson was an unusually weak nominee, such partially explains why Utah went from being a Democratic state in its voting until 1948 and Republican in all but one Presidential election since then. Dwight Eisenhower cultivated Mormons in Utah.

Donald Trump losing Utah? This is one weird election.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 07, 2016, 02:13:38 pm



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.




110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New CBS/YouGov polls out later today on: August 07, 2016, 09:29:21 am
Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.

I'm skeptical because back in June they released a Colorado poll with only Clinton +1, which looks hilarious in retrospect.

Spanish-speakers can and do use the Internet. The only groups that I expect to see under-represented on the Internet are under-educated people, whatever their ethnicity. The Internet requires some modicum of literacy.  
Not sure. There are a ton of idiots on the internet.

They still need to read to use the sites of Breitbart, Free Republic, FoX News, or godh@tesf@gs.com

111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Georgia Becoming A Battleground State? on: August 07, 2016, 09:18:55 am
Target: a Senate seat.  See also Iowa, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Nevada (the only current Senate seat now held by a Democrat that could be vulnerable this year). If she keeps a campaign going in Pennsylvania it will be to pound Senator Toomey, and not to win Pennsylvania by 15% instead of 10%. Likewise Iowa.

She does not need Arizona (she would win Colorado and Nevada anyway, which imply victory); Georgia (which means that she is also winning Florida and North Carolina); Indiana (in which case she is also winning Ohio and the Presidential election); Missouri (which suggests that she is already winning Ohio and Virginia); or North Carolina (which suggests that she is also winning   Virginia and the election overall.

She would be campaigning in Texas if it had a Senate seat up for grabs.    
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Before you say the election is over and Clinton is the next President... on: August 07, 2016, 09:03:08 am
Donald Trump is about the antithesis of Barack Obama as a politician. Most accounts hold that Senator Obama held his own with Pastor Rick Warren (where expectations were low) instead of falling to pieces. He did badly with white fundamentalist Christians as one expected. But he did not dwell on his failure with fundamentalist Christians; he went back to work on his strengths. So he could not find common ground with white Christian fundamentalists; they proved unnecessary for his victory.

Donald Trump is not a good politician, let alone a good strategist in a political campaign. He practically gives material to the other side.

113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your reaction if Donald Trump loses Utah on: August 07, 2016, 08:34:13 am


114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Arizona on: August 07, 2016, 08:29:19 am
About R+6 compared to the US as a whole, but I can't see Hillary Clinton getting less than 53% of the vote share against Donald Trump in the US if you ignore Johnson. If you consider Johnson, then Hillary Clinton wins the state 47-41-10.

Toss-up now slightly favoring Clinton. Hispanics are going to vote like blacks in Arizona this year. 
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - California on: August 07, 2016, 08:23:16 am
Safe D. Trump would have to be up about 60-40 nationwide for California to be vulnerable to Trump.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Kentucky on: August 07, 2016, 08:21:14 am
High single digits for Trump.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would Obama III's margin over Trump be right now? on: August 07, 2016, 08:20:02 am
Obama would be losing to Trump.

Polls that I have seen for states not solid R show a preference over 50% for Obama over Trump.

 
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New CBS/YouGov polls out later today on: August 07, 2016, 08:17:55 am
Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.

I'm skeptical because back in June they released a Colorado poll with only Clinton +1, which looks hilarious in retrospect.

Spanish-speakers can and do use the Internet. The only groups that I expect to see under-represented on the Internet are under-educated people, whatever their ethnicity. The Internet requires some modicum of literacy.  
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would Obama III's margin over Trump be right now? on: August 07, 2016, 08:09:53 am
I'd give him a solid 14-15 points.

Before any clown says it, he'd also be leading Kasich (probably the best general election choice) by at least 5 points.

Kasich would beat Obama or Hillary easily , Obama approval are a reaction to Trump and Hillary and how bad choices they are

Lmao, Obama would trash Kasich, Clinton would as well.

Seriously don't understand why people on here think he is some strong candidate.

Kasich wouldn't be making the same mistakes. It would be a closer race than what I project after the Party Conventions.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread: Latest NH to Likely D on: August 07, 2016, 08:07:58 am
I did not see a poll of the Presidency in Colorado, but the Senate race suggests that Democrats should be doing well, on the whole, in Colorado. The demographics of Colorado (large Hispanic population, large numbers of educated white people) should be brutal to Donald Trump. Besides, if Trump projects to be in a tight Presidential race in Arizona, he should be losing Colorado.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would Obama III's margin over Trump be right now? on: August 07, 2016, 08:04:17 am
Eisenhower-scale victory. One could almost invert an Eisenhower victory map and one would get Obama 2016.  Obama is that good, and Trump is that bad.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Trump gets crushed, what's next for the GOP? on: August 07, 2016, 06:46:09 am
We have yet to  know what sort of President Hillary Clinton will be. We really cannot say much yet, and are fools to speak except in generalities about the election of 2020. The two biggest landslides by Republicans and the last landslide of Democrats in Presidential elections did not lead to long-term dominance of their Parties in Presidential elections. One needs a Lincoln or FDR for that.

Of course, Republicans will scramble to avoid a similar defeat. They will form their nomination process so that they never get a nominee like Donald Trump again. Think about it: so concerned about getting another George McGovern in 1976, the Democrats got Jimmy Carter instead.

I am tempted to say that Republicans will have trouble winning elections so long as they demonize Barack Obama. Doing so insults people who voted for him and people who still think him a good-to-great President. One does not win by calling into question the wisdom of people who voted 'wrong' in the last election, because those people will be voting in the next election. Think about it: Bill Clinton said little bad about Ronald Reagan. He won.   Republicans might as well accept Barack Obama as the closest thing that the Democrats had to Ronald Reagan.

 
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 42% on: August 07, 2016, 06:29:12 am
Should I still be amazed at the 67-25 lead Trump has among white males w/o college degrees? I mean, WTF? Please explain this to me. Low info voters?

Yes. I have cause to believe that we now have an Eisenhower-style electorate (and Southern blacks would have been on the side of Eisenhower if they could have voted in states in which blacks did not vote) for Hillary Clinton.

All that one needs do is listen to the content of his speeches and watch his conduct; it might appeal to people with problems of impulse control but appall others. people with poor impulse control usually wash out of college quickly if they even start college. People with poor impulse control  rarely develop the knack for discretion.     
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Marist: Clinton +14 on: August 07, 2016, 06:09:59 am
Going only on polls from after the Conventions... if Hillary Clinton is up 10% in Michigan and Pennsylvania, then she is almost certainly winning Ohio.

I have seen relatively few post-Convention polls -- one in Arizona (Obama has a slight lead), one in Nevada (very slight lead, but the pollster is Rasmussen), two each in Pennsylvania and Michigan, one in Florida, one in Mew Hampshire, and three in Georgia.

We are going to see polls from other states that get polled often. Some are unlikely to offer surprises (California, Connecticut, and New York) because they are California, Connecticut, and New York. PPP gives us almost an excess of information on North Carolina. It's about time for a Selzer poll of Iowa and a Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin. For obvious reasons, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia get polled often. We have seen some surprising polls in Utah and can expect more.      

My current map, which takes some convention-time polls of Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Tennessee, states that get polled little, shows Hillary Clinton losing those states. I so far have nothing but bad news for anyone who still thinks that Donald Trump can win the Presidency. National tracking pols show Hillary Clinton up by high single digits or low double digits.  

How does she lose Colorado if Arizona is close? How does she lose Ohio or Virginia if she has huge leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania and an unusually-strong lead in Florida?  But such is guesswork on my part based on quantitative results in a few states and an overpowering lead in national tracking polls.

Now for what I can't measure -- the Republican Party has severe rifts that will hurt its electoral campaigns. Donald Trump is running an execrable, mean-spirited campaign when such is not becoming more amenable to political success. If Donald Trump is doing well among under-educated white voters, he is getting crushed by ethnic and religious minorities. He could lose educated white voters, something unheard-of for any Republican since Goldwater, at the least!

There is much that I do not know about the shape of this Presidential campaign. I simply can't say anything good about the chances of Donald Trump in what I don't know.      
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Clinton +11 on: August 07, 2016, 05:46:33 am
It's really bizarre to me that people thought this state was winnable for Trump.

People made assumptions that just did not hold up.
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