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February 28, 2015, 03:51:24 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Death penalty halted in PA on: February 13, 2015, 04:43:01 pm
The death penalty is so capricious in its administration that it is not a reliable deterrent. Crooks aren't thinking of the death penalty when they start an armed robbery or rape or pull a gun on a cop.
102  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Antifascism amendment on: February 13, 2015, 04:40:40 pm
Fascism is capitalism in decay.

More precisely, fascism is an attempt by reactionary interests to salvage their class privilege (including not only wealth but also bureaucratic power) with Bolshevik methods of terror, media control, and regimentation.
Right, which in why monarchists were often fascists and heavily supported Hitler.

Oh wait.

The monarchists were typically members of the Nationalist Party... fascism-lite.

The strongest supporters of Hitler were the big landowners, generally in the eastern parts of the Weimar Republic, and the large-scale industrialists. Blue-collar workers were the least-likely by class to support Hitler -- less likely than the educated elites whom one might have expected to know better.   
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How plausible is this scenario of a Walker win? on: February 13, 2015, 04:29:46 pm


Possible -- but not likely. Losing Virginia and Florida -- the Republican nominee would have to win just about everything between the Sierra Nevada and the Appalachians... again, not likely.  
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states? on: February 13, 2015, 01:06:17 am
Let's try for 13 electoral votes (1984).




Fourteen for a Republican mismatch for most of the US.



A Republican nominee incompetent enough to offend the Mormon hierarchy.

In both, the Republican wins NE-03, one of the most Republican districts in America
 



1984 all over.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states? on: February 13, 2015, 12:53:34 am
Given that Maryland voted for a Republican governor last election, and Vermont came very close to doing so, I'd be interested to see if any Democrats have changed their mind.

Think the last holdout for Team D might be California these days.

Hawaii, which is even more exaggerated in its minority-majority identity than California, would hold out longer than California.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: National Journal: The Emerging Republican Advantage on: February 13, 2015, 12:48:54 am
The Republican Party has the House of Representatives locked up due to gerrymandering until some core constituency departs.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 13, 2015, 12:28:21 am
South Carolina and Georgia both are in the deep south...

Southern Georgia is as Deep South as Mississippi. Georgia has Atlanta, which includes a huge part of the state's population and has more in common with Cleveland than with southern Georgia. 

Georgia votes more like Missouri in Presidential elections than like Alabama, at least in recent years. 
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 12, 2015, 10:26:07 pm
Quote
-Sometimes there's a honeymoon period for an elected official after winning a hard fought campaign, but that's not the case for new North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis. Our first look at his approval rating after taking office finds 32% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 38% who disapprove. He and Kay Hagan were both under water for pretty much the entire 2014 election campaign, and both of them continue to be.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/02/north-carolina-odds-and-ends.html#more

Tillis just won, so North Carolinians will be stuck with him if they dislike him. Could this make Richard Burr vulnerable?

I'm not changing anything on the map, because it is Burr and not Tillis who is up for re-election. This is pure conjecture on my part: if in a given State, both Senators are from the same Party and both are unpopular, with Senator A not up for re-election for another four years but Senator B (in this case "B" for "Burr" is pure coincidence)  is up for re-election, is Senator B more vulnerable than he otherwise would be, given approval ratings well below 50%?

Remember -- this is conjecture, and not theory. I'm not Newton (gravitation), Boyle (gas laws), Darwin (evolution), Einstein (relativity), or Wegener (continental drift). Those people did theory.    
109  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Antifascism amendment on: February 12, 2015, 10:11:51 pm
Fascism is capitalism in decay.

More precisely, fascism is an attempt by reactionary interest to salvage their class privilege (including not only wealth but also bureaucratic power) with Bolshevik methods of terror, media control, and regimentation.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 12, 2015, 04:22:20 pm
States that I would like to see polled:

Arizona
Colorado
Georgia
Illinois (Senate seat -- Chicago media, this is yours!)
Indiana (lots of luck!)
Kentucky (possible Presidential nominee)
Iowa
Missouri
Oregon (Governor in trouble)
Wisconsin (Senate seat, possible GOP Presidential nominee)

PPP does South Carolina this weekend. What state will Quinnipiac poll this weekend?

So far the Presidential election of 2016 is beginning to look much like the elections of 2008 and 2012. The surprise so far is that three successive Presidential elections could be similar.

...It is remarkable so far that we have no poll of a state west of the Appalachians (southeastern Ohio is Appalachian). But even with a 'mere' eight states one sees a pattern -- that against Hillary Clinton the Republican nominee for President will have a difficult time winning four states (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) that no Republican pol can reasonably win the Presidency without. If on Election night any one of these is called for Hillary Clinton, then the Republican nominee might as well have ready what is usually the finest speech possible -- the concession speech -- available. If any such state is called for Hillary Clinton before 11PM EST, then her supporters can simply await the calling of the states on the West Coast. If the states of the West Coast have just been called for her, then it is only a matter of time before one of these four states runs out of votes to count. 

Two states that must be close if the Republicans are to win the Presidency -- New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- aren't close. Republican nominees can win without both (Dubya in 2004).       


Democrats other than Hillary Clinton are so far weak in their appeals to America as a whole. Joe Biden has had his chances, and his only remaining chance to be President is if something happens to...

PPP does South Carolina this weekend. South Carolina is fairly similar to the Deep South in politics -- much more than Georgia.  I predict nothing about South Carolina except that if it is at all close, my prediction that the Presidential election of 2016 will look much like those of 2008 and 2012 will be void.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-CNU: Hillary leads all on: February 12, 2015, 04:10:56 pm
Is the link good? I get an error.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 12, 2015, 04:09:30 pm
Virginia, college poll. Eighth state polled, and critical  for 2016.

Republicans would surely like to believe that Virginia will come back to its senses, and that the two Obama wins are simply blips in the state's historical pattern of voting Republican except in Democratic blowouts between 1952 and 2004.


48-43 Clinton vs. Bush

49-42 Clinton vs. Christie

51-42 Clinton vs. Rubio

52-42 Clinton vs. Huckabee

52-42 Clinton vs. Paul

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/Feb%2012%202015%20Report.pdf

Virginia now probably leans Democratic.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 12, 2015, 01:13:04 pm
New Hampshire:



The average with a the Granite State/U-New Hampshire/WMUR-TV poll involving Rand Paul comes out to 49. Add Walker, though, in a state with a few similarities to his own state.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

114  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gov. Bruce Rauner Declares War on State Unions Through Executive Order on: February 12, 2015, 12:58:08 pm
Anti-union means pro-peonage.

FFS we're talking about public employees here

True -- but we all know the ultimate objective... evisceration of public and private unions alike.
115  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gov. Bruce Rauner Declares War on State Unions Through Executive Order on: February 12, 2015, 11:54:41 am
Anti-union means pro-peonage.
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama asks for congressional resolution to authorize force against ISIS on: February 12, 2015, 11:52:58 am
One effect is to make any dealings with ISIS "trading with the enemy"... and participation by Americans in ISIS treasonable in law as well as morals.   
117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama asks for congressional resolution to authorize force against ISIS on: February 11, 2015, 10:57:42 pm
That's the way to go. Hopefully Republicans won't continue to act like hypocritical, irresponsible obstructionists when the safety of the world is at stake.

No hypocrit here.  I absolutely support giving the President this approval.

However, something tells me the red avatars would be b*tching and moaning if this were a Republican President.

Not this one.

The decision was made by ISIS leaders... with war crimes with Americans as victims, and losing all semblance of trustworthiness.

 
118  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: February 11, 2015, 10:54:53 pm
@pbrower:  If you're trying to divide that poll into legal ssm/ssm illegal states, note that ND is in the 'illegal' group.

Done.

New Hampshire   75   19
Massachusetts   73   21
Rhode Island   70   19
Connecticut   67   26
Vermont   67   32
New Jersey   66   27
Hawaii   64   31
Maine   63   30
New York   63   28
Oregon   63   30
Washington   63   29
California   61   31
Colorado   60   32
Nevada   60   32
Illinois   59   34
Wisconsin   59   33
Arizona   58   33
Minnesota   58   33
New Mexico   58   36
Delaware   57   31
Iowa   57   37
Maryland   56   37
Pennsylvania   56   37

Michigan   55   37
Alaska   54   35
Nebraska   54   39
Idaho   53   41
Ohio   53   39
Florida   52   40
Kansas   50   43

North Dakota   50   39
Virginia   50   43
Texas   48   43
Indiana   47   45
Missouri   47   44
Montana   47   43
Oklahoma   47   48

Georgia   44   47
North Carolina   44   49
South Dakota   44   48
Utah   43   50
Louisiana   42   48
Wyoming*   41   49
Kentucky   40   54
South Carolina   39   54
Tennessee   39   55
West Virginia   37   55
Arkansas   36   59
Alabama   32   59
Mississippi   32   61

119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz introduces bill that would leave marriage to the states on: February 11, 2015, 05:57:08 pm
There's a good reason for the highest court of the United States being called "supreme". There is no appeal beyond it -- not to the United Nations, and not even to Almighty God.

Human rights trump states' rights in America.
Well, Cruz is obviously hoping for an anti-gay SCOTUS ruling. Then, this would effectively block a nationwide bill or referendum on SSM. If the SCOTUS doesn't do what Cruz wants, then he could rebrand this as a constitutional amendment if he can get 290 representatives and 66 other senators to jump on board - but getting that kind of support for this would literally require divine action.

...and of course, not until at least 2019, which assumes that the Republican Party will have a Constitutional majority in both Houses of Congress and 3/4 of all state legislatures. Such requires that the Republicans expand their current majorities in both Houses of Congress, and gain more power in more State legislatures. Above all, people have to care.

Extremists become more strident, ruthless, and despotic as the demographics of their political support fade away.   

120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gov. Bruce Rauner Declares War on State Unions Through Executive Order on: February 11, 2015, 05:08:58 pm
Unions eviscerated, peonage begins.
121  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak on: February 11, 2015, 04:52:11 pm
Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 
But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?

0%? Did I ever say 0%? I would not give "0%" for the chance of Mali winning a medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games... yet. 0% involves reversal of time, alteration of history, people dead for a year rising from the dead...    The prediction was not so ridiculous when Toomey had a 28% approval rating.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz introduces bill that would leave marriage to the states on: February 11, 2015, 04:44:10 pm
There's a good reason for the highest court of the United States being called "supreme". There is no appeal beyond it -- not to the United Nations, and not even to Almighty God.

Human rights trump states' rights in America.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee: "everything Obama does 'is against what Christians stand for' on: February 11, 2015, 12:08:31 pm
Mike Huckabee is introducing his own interpretations of what constitutes "Christianity".

The minimal definition of Christianity is to recognize only one God worthy of worship (there might be a demigod-like Devil, but that entity is to be rejected as evil, destructive, and far short of having the Power of God), profoundly good, Creator of the Universe or at least of the fundamental laws that make the Universe possible as it is, that He instructed the ancient Hebrews through their recognized prophets and that the teachings of those prophets are valid until God Almighty invalidates those teachings -- and that Jesus Christ taught some major reforms of Judaism applicable to Humanity as a whole, that Jesus as Son of God died upon the Cross (after basically a lynching), arose from the dead, and offers salvation to those who believe in Him as Son of God even if they cannot or do not adhere to the ritual laws of Judaism. There are no subsequent prophets greater than Jesus.

Although this definition allows for some variety (non-Trinitarian Christians and Mormons) it clearly excludes polytheists, Satan-worshipers, atheists, Jews, Muslims, and Buddhists). 

         
124  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Virginia Republicans among those calling for Constitutional Convention on: February 11, 2015, 11:45:48 am
A can of vipers.
125  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Antifascism amendment on: February 11, 2015, 11:33:44 am


Repugnant as fascism is, even if it claims to be 100% American (exotic manifestations of fascism, like neo-Nazism, are sick jokes to almost everyone), it is hard to define. As a rule, anything that resembles fascism tries to present itself as the definitive Americanism with anyone disagreeing being smeared as 'traitors'.

The only way in which such an amendment will ever appear is if

1. America goes fascist.
2. Fascist America provokes a horrible war
3. that it loses, and
4. the victors impose a ban on the fascist party as the US did to the NSDAP, the National Fascist party, and the Japanese Taisei Yokusankai...

I can imagine the Right using this sort of language

"No person who is a SOCIALIST shall hold any office, civil or military, under the United States or any State or territory, or shall be an elector of President or Vice President."

To outlaw opposition, anyone disagreeing with those in power could be cast out of positions of responsibility for opposition to crony capitalism, refusing to allow giant corporations to expropriate their property for a pittance, or teaching that pure plutocracy destroys much of what has been recently accepted in America. It could also disenfranchise people, entrenching the power of people drifting toward fascism. 
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