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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AR-PPP: All Pubs lead Clinton on: August 09, 2014, 06:11:15 am
Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

I'd absolutely dispute Arizona.

Arizona? Large Hispanic population to which  the GOP has nothing to offer. I have seen mixed results in the same poll. The Anglo population will eventually need to vote about 70% R for Republicans to win statewide.

Arizona is about eight years behind Colorado and Nevada, about ten years behind New Mexico, and about twenty years behind California in having a D edge instead of an R edge.   
102  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do realignments exist? on: August 08, 2014, 11:35:15 pm
[
Now let's see how things go when we have Barack Obama in 2012:

They do happen, even if it takes a few election cycles for them to become significant.

Case in point:



Carter 1976,  Gore 2000, Kerry 2004 Obama 2012 104
Ford 1976, Gore 2000, Kerry  2004  Obama 2012 138
Carter 1976 George W. Bush 2000/2004  Romney 2012 141
Carter 1976 George W. Bush 2000/2004  Obama 2012  29
Ford 1976 Gore 2000 Bush 2004  Obama 2012 11
Ford 1976 George W. Bush 2000 Kerry 2004  Obama 2012 4
Ford 1976 George W. Bush 2000/2004 Romney 2012 46
Ford 1976 George W. Bush 2000/2004 Obama 2012 61


2012 was not really a close election in electoral votes, but it easily could have been -- had Romney won Florida, which he was about to until the last week of the electoral contest. Fully three fourths of the electoral votes that Romney won in 2012 were from states that Jimmy Carter had won in 1976.  


103  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 08, 2014, 04:24:19 pm
If I got such a poll I would have no qualms about anyone showing it as a poll. Likewise for any state that has SSM.

SSM looks like an unqualified success where it is in effect. It's likely rare and it seems harmless. 
104  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Google 'reveals user' over Gmail child abuse images on: August 08, 2014, 04:11:16 pm
The right to privacy has never applied to criminal deeds.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 08, 2014, 04:07:43 pm
Connecticut, Gravis. Internet poll, so beware, and only one matchup between Hillary Clinton and anyone with legislative experience. One gap miserably filled. No Republican nominee has a real chance of winning Connecticut, which is about the only conclusion I can get.   

It's the first one on Connecticut, and any fresh poll on Connecticut will be welcome. Q, perhaps, in view of the gubernatorial race?

Clinton (D)- 45%
Carson (R)- 36%

Clinton (D)- 48%
Paul (R)- 33%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/connecticut-polling-data-august-2014/



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



[/quote]
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee: Obama deserves impeachment on: August 08, 2014, 08:41:59 am
Why do Republicans hate America?

That would be Obama style Democrats

We hate wars based upon lies of the President. We hate economic bubbles that devour practically all capital and then go bust. We hate the extreme  economic inequality that Republicans endorse. We hate the idea that the common man exists only to suffer for 1% of the population. We hate a political party that has no room for dissent and that in practice endorses government by unelected lobbyists responsible only to their corporate paymasters (a novel form of oligarchy). The GOP vision of America is not the America that I was brought up with.

We know what Dubya was, and we have no cause to believe that current Republicans attribute the failures of Dubya and the GOP that stood completely with him to his policies.

Promote an economic order in which most Americans have a stake in the order, and then maybe the GOP can peel off some Democratic votes. 
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee: Obama deserves impeachment on: August 08, 2014, 12:41:05 am
ISIS would be delighted.
108  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Google 'reveals user' over Gmail child abuse images on: August 07, 2014, 09:48:17 pm
You can have extreme privacy or you can join the 21st century.

You just summed up the precise problem far more succinctly than I could have. The loss of privacy is now taken with such fatalism, inevitability, that it is now being equated (almost accurately) with the march of time. "Lose your privacy and join the 21st century, or be stuck in the past!"

There has never been an inherent right to disseminate pornography of any kind, and although we can tolerate much pornography such as we allow does not include child porn (which is a play-by-play of rape). At the same time we have a great liberalization of laws relating to erotic materials other than 'revenge porn' whose release violates any pretense of consent of a participant. The same technology that allows the freer dissemination of pornography  also makes it easier for law enforcement to squelch child porn and 'revenge porn'.   

Quote
Quote
You can't have both.  Google isn't <scary voice>EVIL</voice>.  Google, like the vast majority of the "they" you speak of want nothing more than to make money and ensure that they will make money next year.  They don't give two sh**ts one way or the other about your privacy, at least any further than how it or the lack of it affect their bottom line.  They don't keep an "E"ye on you to blackmail you or to make sure you don't smoke weed, they keep an eye on you so they know what to try and sell you.  You can view it as a horrible thing if you want, but it's not.  It's what companies have always done, Google (and the other "they") just have a lot more data at their finger tips.

The fact that Google seeks profits does not, in my estimation, make them benevolent. It makes them the same as any other amoral, profit-seeking entity. The same objection (benevolent inspector), of course, can and usually is made about any loss of privacy. "Why, it's okay if the NSA violates the fourth amendment, they're just looking out for our interest. You don't trust the government? They would never take advantage..." and so on. No, I don't trust Google. An entire generation is now growing up with no conception of what privacy even means, as previous generations understood the term. And I see very little public debate about this issue.

For just as the industrial revolution opened up whole new levels of extreme inequality, in wealth and in power, so does the information revolution open up whole new levels of inequality, the inequality of information, which was not even conceivable 20 years ago. The power not only to invade the private communications of individuals but to monitor, track, study, analyze, model, predict, and ultimately manipulate entire populations and their social behaviors. And unlike the industrial revolution, where the wealth of the nouveau riche, or the power of Gatling-gun equipped European empires was on public display for all to see, this revolution has largely been occurring invisibly.

A giant corporation. media or not, has the right and duty to protect its income stream on behalf of its shareholders and the simultaneous right to protect the obvious interests of its customers. If Google must collaborate with the US government to squelch child porn or revenge porn -- so be it. If Google wishes to decide to be a family-friendly company and close itself to porn -- then such is its prerogative. Media companies also have the right to define themselves as 'family-friendly' or as 'fun' restrained only by legal constraints.
109  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: American forces bomb ISIS targets in Iraq on: August 07, 2014, 09:13:50 pm
I hope this backfires. I really do. We need to learn a lesson. I guarentee that when the bombs begin to fall we are going to nail a hospital or a school, and ISIS's ranks will only continue to swell.

I am a very partisan Democrat. Carping at the President ends at America's shores, and such trumps partisanship.

I wanted President George W.  Bush's war against Saddam Hussein to succeed even if its justification was shaky. We are Americans and we owe some loyalty to those soldiers who enforce the foreign policy of our nation.  We are at risk of war -- but our President did not create that risk. ISIS did with its genocide and other war crimes.

We are going to see the difference between this President and his awful predecessor. Dubya contradicted the intelligence of the CIA. President Obama gets his facts straight before he acts on any issue of foreign policy.

Long live the Yezidis! Long live Iraqi Christians! Long live Shi'ite Muslims in northern Iraq! Long live the Kurds! If that means the demise of ISIS -- then ISIS may have created its own demise.  
110  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do realignments exist? on: August 07, 2014, 01:25:09 pm
They do happen, even if it takes a few election cycles for them to become significant.

Case in point:



Carter 1976,  Gore 2000, Kerry 2004  104
Ford 1976, Gore 2000, Kerry  2004  138
Carter 1976 George W. Bush 2000/2004  141
Ford 1976 Gore 2000 Bush 2004 11
Ford 1976 George W. Bush 2000 Kerry 2004  4
Ford 1976 George W. Bush 2000/2004 137


When in a close election the bare winner gets roughly half of his electoral votes from states that went for the nominee of his Party 24 or 28 years earlier and about half his electoral votes from states that went for the nominee of the other Party 24 or 28 years earlier, then one has a realignment.

111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Civitas: Essential Tie in NC w/ Hillary, Small Rep Advantage w/ Biden on: August 06, 2014, 10:56:56 pm
Not using it. North Carolina gets polled often, and extreme partisan pollsters are unwelcome unless they fill holes.   
112  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do realignments exist? on: August 06, 2014, 10:53:04 pm
Demographic change from population shifts and ethnic change can turn a State from Republican to Democratic over ten years or so (California, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico since 1980 due to the rapid growth of the Mexican-American vote). On the other side, Democrats won West Virginia fairly reliably when many of the voters were were active members of the politically-powerful United Mine Workers Union (UMW)except in Republican landslides -- until the coal-mining industry shrank and with it the UMW, and the state has drifted unambiguously toward the Republican Party. Such does not explain states that have not undergone demographic change. Vermont and Maine have gone from two of the solidest-Republican states in Presidential elections,  as a political ally of FDR quipped during the reporting of his 46-state electoral blowout:

Quote
The Electoral College results, in which Landon only won Maine and Vermont, inspired Democratic Party chairman James Farley, who had in fact declared during the campaign that FDR was to lose only these two states, to amend the then-conventional political wisdom of "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" into "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont." Additionally, a prankster posted a sign on Vermont's border with New Hampshire the day after the 1936 election, reading: "You are now leaving the United States." Some of Roosevelt's advisers even joked that America's fiscal woes might be best solved if he offered to sell Vermont and Maine to Canada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...election,_1936


It is highly unlikely that either Maine or Vermont, neither of which seems to have undergone great demographic change since the 1930s,  has changed in its political culture since the 1930s. What has happened is that the Democratic norm in Presidential politics has come to include the political cultures of Maine and Vermont that existed in the 1930s and as late as the 1980s. Maine and Vermont (also Oregon, Washington, Michigan, Illinois, and Pennsylvania) used to elect numerous liberal Republicans. That is over. There are few remaining liberal Republicans.

Politicians can rarely force demographic changes, but they can exploit them. As significantly, they can also exploit the failure of those pols who think certain constituencies or states 'sure' to vote for them. California, Michigan, Illinois, Vermont, and Maine used to be almost reliably R in Presidential elections.  They are the opposite now.   
113  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who was the best of recent failed Republican presidential nominees? on: August 06, 2014, 04:45:55 pm
Bob Dole was simply past-prime when he was finally nominated.

Would he have been a better President than Nixon, Ford, Carter, or Reagan? Maybe. He did have a pugnacious streak, but he could probably modulate that when such was necessary. I can only imagine what promises he made to Mikhail Gorbachev after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait.



     
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA: Rick Perry leads Joe Biden on: August 06, 2014, 09:18:42 am
Do you guys think they'll wait to call Florida for Clinton or will they call it as soon as polls in the panhandle have closed?

3% Clinton lead at that time -- too close to call
6% or more at that time -- Florida called, and everyone will know.

If Hillary is up more than 6% in Florida, then she is winning Ohio, Virginia, and perhaps Georgia and North Carolina.   
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 06, 2014, 09:15:44 am
Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Adjusting for Arkansas.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 06, 2014, 09:06:22 am
Arkansas now seems to be a quixotic quest for 2016 for Hillary, according to PPP:

Bush 46%
Clinton 41%

Christie 42%
Clinton 41%

Cruz 46%
Clinton 42%

Huckabee 55%
Clinton 39%


Paul 45%
Clinton 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_806513.pdf

Q fills some holes for New Jersey:

50% Clinton
42% Christie

54% Clinton
34% Bush

55% Clinton
35% Paul

57% Clinton
34% Huckabee


From July 31 - August 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,148 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2068  



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Best GOP Almost-President: Thomas Dewey or Bob Dole on: August 05, 2014, 09:21:08 pm
Dole. Clearly past prime in 1996, essentially shut out by Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and the elder Bush. He might have been a better President than any of them. Of course,  I can think of some Republicans who would have been better than Dubya as President. Flawed? Sure. Aren't they all?

The characterizations of Dewey look so contrary in effectiveness and objectionability. There was a politician like that -- Richard Nixon.   
118  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 05, 2014, 09:12:24 pm
Left-wingers have a long history of committing political atrocities that have resulted in the deaths of thousands to millions; from the Reign of Terror all the way up to the Cambodian Genocide.

Communism as a murderous ideology is also a dying ideology.

The Atlantic slave trade and the mistreatment of First Peoples of the Americas both killed millions -- and we hardly see those as a current threat of mass death. Christians are culpable for the Crusades, witch hunts, and the Inquisition. No Christian organization now endorses those.

Quote
You'll never hear about that from the left-wing, globalist mass media; though. Instead, they use a handful of isolated incidents (many of which have a high possibility of being false flag attacks) to make the claim that ''all right-wingers are potential terrorists'' while at the same time pretending that left-wingers never commit violent acts themselves.

Extreme leftists have become irrelevant as genuine threats of mass murder.  Organized crime, which is difficult to place on the left-right continuum, is now far more likely to cause death than extreme leftists in America. Bloods? Crips? MS-13? Much more dangerous than old left-wing phantoms.   

Quote
Before you hit me with the usual response that I'm a crazy, extreme right-wing conspiracy theorist who needs to take his meds; take a look at Hal Turner. He's proof that the feds do, in fact, set people up to play the role of their political opponents and act aggressively so they can justify making moves against them. They even encouraged him to use violent rhetoric.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner#FBI_Informant

Hal Turner is a piece of work. Agents-provocateurs are untrustworthy as a rule. 
119  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 05, 2014, 08:35:45 pm
Quote

Alaska Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
35%
Approve
..........................................................
58%
Disapprove
......................................................
8%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_8051205.pdf

August 1-3, 2014
Survey of 1,066 Arkansas voters

Arkansas Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
33%
Approve
..........................................................
62%
Disapprove
......................................................
5%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_8051118.pdf





60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)











120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Google 'reveals user' over Gmail child abuse images on: August 05, 2014, 08:05:18 pm
Tough luck to the perp.

I have no desire or tolerance for criminal images. One takes full consequences for broadcasting oneself committing an illegal act because the act is itself illegal.

121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Citing Israel, GOP eyes Jewish vote on: August 05, 2014, 07:53:18 pm
The Evangelical right scares the crap out of both American and Israeli Jews. It's been made very clear they want preserve Israel for Armageddon and convert them.

While they accept their support, they're not keen on the right being at the controls necessarily.

The Jewish people are not single issue voters, and even if they were, a lot of Democrats support Israel anyway.

Speaking as someone who actually is Jewish, I can confirm both of these, especially what King said.  I would add two other things, however:

1) Both Judaism and Jewish culture place an extremely high value upon social justice while the Republican Party is filled with folks like Glenn Beck who are running around screaming that social justice is somehow a code word for eugenics and/or Nazism.

2) Jewish culture places an incredibly high value upon education.  I am far from the only Jewish voter who believes that the Republicans have become a fundamentally anti-intellectual party.  Beyond which, that whole "Yee-haw, look it here!  I can't speak the English right and got me that there ten-gallon hat and some of them cowboy boots 'yall " schtick that a lot of Southern Republicans have is absolutely repulsive to most Jewish voters.  Until they can fix that, the Republican Party will have (practically no)  luck reaching out to non-Orthodox Jewish.

About what I thought. Even if I am not Jewish (nearly half-English/Welsh/Scots-Irish and nearly half German or Swiss), I vote much the same way as Jews because I value education and social justice.

I don't know about the ten-gallon hat stuff, as there are Texas Jews who affect a ten-gallon hat (but draw the line at assimilating the bad grammar). 

With their anti-intellectualism, Republicans are also having trouble with Asians (south, south-east, and east) who have similar reputations for respect for intellectual achievement. Lots of Hispanics, too.
122  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 05, 2014, 05:57:22 pm

Alaska Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
35%
Approve
..........................................................
58%
Disapprove
......................................................
8%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_8051205.pdf




60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)












[/quote]
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47% on: August 05, 2014, 05:48:49 pm
Technically, if it it is "too good to be true" it is almost certainly neither good nor true.
124  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Happy 53rd Birthday President Obama! on: August 04, 2014, 07:16:40 pm


No. But I am not with the Hague tribunal!
125  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 04, 2014, 07:13:57 pm
From Wikipedia:

Quote
On May 30, 2009, Raul Flores, Jr., 29, and his daughter, Brisenia Ylianna Flores, 9, of Arivaca, Arizona, were murdered at home during a robbery by Shawna Forde, Jason Eugene Bush, and Albert Gaxiola, who were convicted of the murders.

Both Raul Flores and his daughter, Brisenia, were born in the United States and were thus American citizens as is Gina Gonzalez, the victims' wife and mother who survived the attack.

Brisenia was a third-grade student at the Sopori Elementary School in Amado, Arizona at the time of her death.

During the trial, jurors were told that Forde and her accomplices gained entry to the Flores home by claiming they were officials looking for fugitives and that the suspects had the expectation of finding money and drugs that could be sold to finance Forde's group, the Minutemen American Defense, which patrolled Arizona's border with Mexico. When they found no drugs, the intruders took jewelry but, prosecutors said, not before fatally shooting the child and her father.

Gina Marie Gonzalez, 31, wife of Raul Flores and mother of Brisenia, in the home during the attack was shot three times. She survived because she pretended to be dead. Gonzalez called 911 emergency services when the assailants left the home. While Gonzalez was on the phone, the assailants re-entered the home; Gonzalez fired her husband's handgun, wounding Bush. Gonzalez identified two men, one white, the other Latino, and a white woman as the attackers. Gonzales said Bush, who is white, had murdered her daughter and husband.

An early exchange within the 911 call was recorded as follows:

    Gonzalez: "They shot me and I pretended like I was dead. My daughter was crying. They shot her, too.
    Operator: "Are they still there, the people who, that shot them?"
    Gonzalez: "They're coming back in! They're coming back in!" (Gunfire.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawna_Forde
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