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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 09:36:39 pm
By offending Mormons and Latinos he could easily lose Arizona.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4 on: April 22, 2016, 08:53:06 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

But that will be impossible for the Governor of a neighboring state.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Tubman shouldn't be $20 cuz she's a black woman, $2 "more appropriate" on: April 22, 2016, 09:20:59 am
The Underground Railroad was a heroic enterprise.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 09:17:26 am
He speaks frequently of deporting any 'illegal alien' even if such means breaking up families. Except among Puerto Ricans and Cuban-Americans, I figure that most Hispanics know or suspect that they know some illegal aliens. Figure that people are more likely to ask "What's your sign?" than "What is your citizenship status?" before dating, and some teenagers could lose boyfriends or girlfriends from any wave of deportations.

105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Switch party for Trump and Clinton on: April 22, 2016, 09:08:00 am
No.

Donald Trump, a typical demagogue, may say things with a left-wing appeal, but he has no problem contradicting himself. He insults too many ethnic and religious minorities to be a Democrat. Such pro-feminist things as he says are basically for economically-elite women only.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-St. Norbert College/WPR/WPT- Clinton Dominates Trump, Close Race Against Cruz on: April 21, 2016, 02:07:14 pm


This looks like the bare minimum for a Democratic nominee for President - 122 electoral votes -- unless the Presidential nominee is caught doing something unthinkable or unprintable.  It is safe to say that in view of the strength of the Democrats in these states that the only way for a Republican to win these states is if the Parties flip in ideology. Such flips have happened -- just think of an overlay between the elections of Obama and Eisenhower. Even at a 58-41 split of the popular vote (which is how Reagan did in 1984) this is the result with states aligned as they are.  Even at that I am stretching.

Republican 416 - Democrat 122.




Republican 375 - Democrat 183  (IL, MN, NM go R)
Republican 365 - Democrat 173 (MN goes D, IL, NM go R)
Republican 338 - Democrat 200 (IL, MN, NM go D)

These are the inverses of the Clinton (at 375) and Obama elections. One of these might be accomplished with an electorate like those of 2010 or 2014, and more likely the 365-390 EV scenario because the loser behind 338-200 in September is going to either put the election in reach or collapse trying to do so.




30 electoral votes (CT, ME-02, MI, NV) cuts the Republican total of electoral votes down to 308, which is roughly an inverse of the Kennedy election of 1960.  At this point the election is generally perceived as close. This is roughly Kerry 2004  losing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but winning Nevada and New Mexico.



This is as close to a near 50-50 split of the electoral vote with the Republican winning. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Iowa go D before the current tipping-point state goes D... and that now looks like Virginia.


107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-St. Norbert College/WPR/WPT- Clinton Dominates Trump, Close Race Against Cruz on: April 21, 2016, 10:09:59 am
For the last time, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not Safe D, and there is no blue wall!!!

Fine, we can call it the "blue barrier", because the "blue barrier" represents states that are either safe D, likely D or leans D. Republicans have basically zero chance in the first 2, and for the leans D states, they have to field a specific kind of candidate that fits those states and has to have both turnout (as in low Democratic turnout, and don't mention the primaries please, their turnout means nothing for the GE) and public opinion in their favor, otherwise the advantage goes to Democrats. Currently Republicans look likely to have none of those things.

Cruz is a terrible fit for anywhere that isn't rural or the south. He's the kind of candidate who, in a much better cycle, would never have even gotten close to the nomination.

The only argument that Democrats have is that we can't win the popular vote (which I don't buy).  Because, if the popular vote is close, the EC can easily go either way.  Many on this forum don't understand PVI!!

For someone who constantly brings up PVI, you should realize that Wisconsin's PVI is D+2, meaning that a Republican would probably have to win the PV by about 4% to have a good chance of winning Wisconsin.

I know that, but if people think R+2 Florida is a swing state, they have to say the same about D+2 Wisconsin.

We haven't had a Presidential election in which the Republicans got 310-400 electoral votes (and with Nixon, just barely) since 1908, when William Howard Taft got about the same proportion of electoral votes as Obama got in 2008.

2012 was about as close to the median in electoral victories as any election since the start of the 20th century. It was the only such election. The others are nailbiters (2004, 2000, 1976, 1960, 1948, 1916), three-way splits that prove disastrous to the Party in power (1968, 1912),  and various shades of landslides (from Taft 1908 and Obama 2008 to the nearly-complete electoral wipe-outs of 1936, 1972, and 1984.

It's 2012 that, although close to the median in the proportion of electoral votes for winners, is the freak election. Presidential elections are generally close -- or they aren't. Even in 2012 the election was close to being close in electoral votes, with Florida the closest Obama win, and that electorally-large state being the difference between 303 and 332 electoral votes. Had Romney won Florida, then Obama would have had a win that looked more like that of Kennedy in 1960 than like Obama in 2008.

So ---

nailbiter: R win, Wisconsin is very close. Even or D win, Wisconsin goes D.
near-landslide (R reversal of 1992/1996/2008) -- Wisconsin definitely goes R.
400-430 electoral votes (1952/1956/1988) -- Wisconsin is one of the least of D problems.

430 or more -- Republicans are not going to win California, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, the District of Columbia, or Hawaii in the near future in any Presidential election barring such a catastrophe as a military defeat or a second Great Depression. Those states combine for 120 or so electoral votes.

 
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 20, 2016, 06:14:48 pm
38% statewide would probably mean that UT-4 would turn blue and boot Mia Love down ballot. If Democrats could gain some good footing in Salt Lake County that they could possibly make stick in the future, that would great

That's the plan. We want to make sure Mia Love loses, and to take back several legislative seats we lost in 2014. After that, there's a few more seats that are winnable. Our long-therm plan is to break the super-majority and turn it into a regular majority.

EDIT: As for my alcohol shilling remark, whether or not he personally drinks, as I understand it, he's done commercials and such in support of some alcohol beverages. Mormons might not like that, was my point.

A teetotaler who pushes alcoholic beverages is a hypocrite.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-St. Norbert College/WPR/WPT- Clinton Dominates Trump, Close Race Against Cruz on: April 20, 2016, 05:09:28 pm
If Cruz wins the election, will WI be the tipping point state? He seems to be eerily strong there...

They also polled Sanders vs. Cruz/Trump matchups:

Sanders 50, Cruz 40
Sanders 52, Trump 33

If (1) Cruz is nominated,
(2) the split of the electoral votes is about 275-263
(3) Cruz wins Wisconsin.

Republicans have a high floor but a low ceiling in Wisconsin. To win the state  the Republicans need everything right --  low turnout, as in a midterm year, and against an unpopular President.  

Republicans are going to try everything to hold onto a Senate seat, so count on any Republican nominee campaigning in Wisconsin until such is hopeless.

For now I predict that Virginia will be the tipping-point state. Wisconsin is likely to behave as it did in 2008 and 2012, that is fading out of contention around September. 

110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump on: April 20, 2016, 01:33:09 pm
My projection:



based upon polling and how credible I consider the polls:

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Hillary attack Kasich in the GE? on: April 19, 2016, 09:48:26 pm
His record.

So far John Kasich has been able to seem less objectionable than Donald Trump and Ted Cruz by not shooting off his mouth. He can't remain silent indefinitely on the polarizing issues that almost every Republican has. 
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 19, 2016, 06:07:38 pm
alcohol shilling

Funny, I love him in part because of his abstinence XD

He may be an alcoholic or a diabetic, for all I know. By "alcoholic" I here mean the AA use -- that some people are born alcoholic because of their metabolism, and that alcoholics who give up drinking are still alcoholics who simply are not drinking at the time.

This is the dumbest post I've read this week, and Shadows has posted here.

Why is it so dumb? Would I judge someone for being a diabetic or for having a metabolic problem with liquor?

That was speculation on my part, and I avoid malign speculation. Rejecting hard drink because one can't handle liquor  is reasonable and even admirable.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: April 19, 2016, 06:03:50 pm
Maryland:

Clinton 58, Cruz 24 (D+34)
Clinton 61, Trump 28 (D+33)
Clinton 54, Kasich 33 (D+21)


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

North Carolina:

Trump 39
Clinton 45

Clinton 41
Cruz 44


http://elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041916_ElonPoll_FullReport.pdf

North Carolina was on the fringe of competitiveness in an election close to being close in 2012.

Wisconsin, St. Norbert


Sanders 50, Cruz 40
Sanders 52, Trump 33

Clinton (D) 46%
Trump (R) 34%

Clinton (D) 45%
Cruz (R) 44%

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/Wisconsin%20Survey%20Spring%202016.pdf?platform=hootsuite



http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: kasich wishes lgbt+ people would "just get over" discrimination on: April 19, 2016, 10:59:40 am
You want to force someone to invest time and effort into something they believe is wrong?  Whatever hatred you feel for such a person, what you are demanding runs afoul of the idea that being in someone's employ should be a voluntary condition.

See, that's very subjective. I'm sure lots of racist Southerners in the Jim Crow days thought having to deal with/serve African Americans was just wrong, as they should be slaves and not free citizens. Or how about allowing women to vote? I'm sure lots thought it was just wrong because it wasn't their place and they wouldn't even know what to do (I'm aware this deals with govt and not business). I mean I can go on and on here.

If we can disallow discrimination based on race, we can also do it based on sexual orientation.

Does a person have a right to refuse an offer of employment, for whatever reason they choose?  That is essentially what a contract for services entails. It would seem to me that they would, unless they were providing such a basic necessity that whoever came to them and was denied it could suffer material hardship.  Medical care, a meal, lodging, basic utilities, qualifies.   An art commission, a shoeshine, a floral arrangement, does not.

An offer of employment and no choice of rejecting it is an act of bondage. An unemployed person really is a free agent. An unemployed engineer might have better things to do with his life than be a checker-cashier in a convenience store. It's not only money. If I am a carpenter I might find myself ill suited to be an electrician.

An artist's commission? What if I have family who perished under Stalin's tyranny and I am expected to paint a laudatory picture of Josef Stalin? I might be appalled! I would suggest that the potential customer find some other artist or ask for some other object of admiration.  

As an employee of a business one has responsibilities to the ownership and management. Thus if I am employed as a front-desk clerk and the management says that I may not rent out a room by the hour (a deed often associated with prostitution) I had better not offer to lease a room for an hour to some straight couple. Or if there is a "no pets" rule I had better not lease a room to someone traveling with a cat. I may like to consort with whores or I may like cats -- but such is not my judgment to make on the policy of allowing customers to use the motel for purposes that my employer does not authorize.

On the other side, suppose that I were a bigot and the people seeking are a mixed-race couple -- a black man with a pretty white wife and children who remind me of why I abhor interracial marriages. The motel ownership may not like the potential guests, but federal laws prohibit discrimination based upon race. If I refuse I may be violating state or federal laws.

Employment choice is one thing.  Choice of clients is assumed only so long as there is some bona fide criterion for rejecting a customer.  
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: kasich wishes lgbt+ people would "just get over" discrimination on: April 19, 2016, 12:01:05 am
A Small Business should have the right to decline service to anybody they want.

So we again will need publications like this to know where and where my type or your type is welcome or not?

I'd be perfectly fine with that. If they don't want to serve me, their economy can gladly continue to suffer Smiley

agreed if a small business declines to serve you what you want, dont shop there and tell your friends and family not to.

How, exactly, is that going to help in, say, rural Alabama? If anything, support for discrimination against gays will HELP their business, not hurt it. They will be rewarded for debasing the value of another human.

Why should it be legal to refuse to serve someone at your public establishment because you don't like that they're black, or that they're gay, or a woman, or Irish, or Chinese, or of Jewish heritage, or that they have Cerebral Palsy, or Epilepsy, or Down Syndrome? Not only is it morally reprehensible, but it should absolutely be (and usually is) illegal to refuse service to someone based on any of the above unless there's a real and imminent danger to life and property introduced by doing so. "I don't agree with them" is not good enough. Neither is "it will fix itself via Capitalism". It demonstrably won't.

The point. People do not choose to have epilepsy, Down's syndrome, or cerebral palsy. Neither do people choose mental retardation. I did not choose to create the impression that I am a gay male in the presence of people who think it acceptable to bash gays.

With few exceptions (most notably people black solely in accordance with the one-drop rule) practically nobody chooses to be black. Chinese? One would have to be born Chinese to be Chinese. The language is just too difficult to toy with.

It all comes down to empathy, something lacking among bigots.

Should blacks 'get over' racism? Not until racism is itself gone.  
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 18, 2016, 11:45:20 pm
alcohol shilling

Funny, I love him in part because of his abstinence XD

He may be an alcoholic or a diabetic, for all I know. By "alcoholic" I here mean the AA use -- that some people are born alcoholic because of their metabolism, and that alcoholics who give up drinking are still alcoholics who simply are not drinking at the time.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 18, 2016, 09:50:33 pm
I was called a troll in 2015 for calling this. Unbelievable. I will not accept my accolades.

I love this new Republican Party. Get these pansies out of my party.

I thought it possible, but something more in line with prophecy than with prediction.

So is it possible for someone on the Left to so offend the sensibilities  of Maryland voters that Maryland will go to the Republican nominee some time? Yes.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 18, 2016, 03:06:27 pm
Toss-up, Clinton vs. Trump 

Edge D, Sanders vs. Trump.

Strong R,  any other Presidential matchup and Senatorial and Gubernatorial races.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 18, 2016, 12:27:29 pm
This is the same firm as the other one.  Let's see someone else replicate this before we worry about Utah if Trump is the nominee.
I dunno, it shows the state is still super Republican without Trump on the ballot.

That's the point.

I can imagine many Utahns voting for a Third Party or independent conservative rather than for Trump. 39-37-24 is good for the person winning 39. That could be Hillary Clinton. 

49% is close to the ceiling for Sanders in Utah, but if an independent or third-Party conservative is able to get even 3% of the total vote, Utah goes to Sanders.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: April 18, 2016, 12:15:19 pm
New polling from the battleground state of Utah (Dan Jones)....

Sanders 49%
Trump 34%
.
Cruz 63%
Sanders 32%
.
Kasich 64%
Sanders 30%

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Maryland:



Sanders 62, Cruz 24 (D+38)
Sanders 60, Trump 29 (D+31)
Sanders 52, Kasich 32 (D+20)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

North Carolina:


Trump 38
Sanders 51

Cruz 39
Sanders 49

http://elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041916_ElonPoll_FullReport.pdf

Wisconsin, St. Norbert


Sanders 50, Cruz 40
Sanders 52, Trump 33

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/Wisconsin%20Survey%20Spring%202016.pdf?platform=hootsuite

WMUR-TV, ABC-9 southern New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire


Sanders: 58
Trump: 31

Sanders: 61
Cruz: 30

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_spring_preselect042116.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump-Clinton Tied on: April 18, 2016, 12:10:51 pm

Donald Trump is the worst cultural match for Utah that the Republican Party could come up with. Cruz and Kasich do well enough. Republicans are doing well in gubernatorial and senatorial polls. So maybe the trouble is with Donald Trump and not the poll. Does having had  your name attached to vodka, let alone gambling casinos, sound like a good way to win the votes of Mormons? What's next? Trump cigarettes?

Then there are the multiple failed marriages, something very un-Mormon. 

Utah has only six electoral votes, but in view of how Republicans are doing in other states, the usual swing states, it is a state that the GOP dare not lose in a Presidential election.

This is the same firm as the other one.  Let's see someone else replicate this before we worry about Utah if Trump is the nominee.

True, but it polled again and got the same result. Do you have evidence that this is a push poll?
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: April 18, 2016, 10:35:38 am
Don't be surprised if this is the last poll that you see of Massachusetts for a very long time. No change is necessary for any map.


Clinton-Trump: 62-26%  (D+36)
Clinton-Cruz: 63-30% (D+33)
Sanders-Trump: 70-23% (D+47)
Sanders-Cruz: 71-24% (D+47)

http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

This is consistent with a Democratic landslide, at least outside the Mountain and Deep South for Hillary Clinton, as it is close to the level for Obama in 2008. With Sanders.... not quite what LBJ got in Massachusetts (76%) in 1964.

Massachusetts is a swing state only in a Democratic disaster as with Eisenhower or Reagan.

Massachusetts, going back:

Year, Massachusetts, USA

2012   60 51
2008   62 53
2004   62 48
2000   58 49
1996   61 48*
1992   47 43*
1988   54 45
1984   48 41   (the Republican won MA!)
1980   42 43* (the Republican won MA!)
1976   56 50
1972   54 37  (the only state that Nixon lost!)
1968   54 43*
1964   76 61
1960   60 50
1956   40 42
1952   45 44


*significant third-party nominee   
italic -- Democratic nominee from Massachusetts

...Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan are the only Republican nominees for President who won Massachusetts in the last 90 years; they both won it twice.

   
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: Don't drink alcohol if you don't want to get raped on: April 17, 2016, 06:26:01 am
We cannot absolve guilty persons of agency, nor should we demonize their devices. There will always be someone with less than kindly intentions around, regardless of the situation. This is not an excuse to place blame wantonly. To perceive actual threat at one of these parties is to show ageist/misandrist/ignorant belief. It is disingenuous to caution one's daughters against them, skewed to assume the stereotypic young man is up to no good. Ignorance is more forgivable.

P.S. I took none of the Kasich supporters seriously in this thread due to obvious bias.

Alcohol is a simple chemical with complicated effects on mental activity. It makes some people more vicious or unscrupulous, and some people more vulnerable. It can become for all practical purposes a date-rape drug.  For someone fully adult, alcohol is a mild drug. For someone not adult, alcohol is a very hard drug.

A man trying to get a girl drunk so that she will accede to his lust is up to no good.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which dropout ran the BEST campaign? on: April 17, 2016, 06:19:10 am
All of them were terribly-flawed candidates. For what he was, Marco Rubio ran the best campaign to the extent that he lasted longest.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: Don't drink alcohol if you don't want to get raped on: April 16, 2016, 11:38:08 pm
I hate alcohol and I don't think Kasich is going anywhere. I'm just not a misogynist victim blamer like TNVolunteer.

Where and when have I said that the victim is to blame for the rape?

It's more that you (and Kasich) are implying that the way to deal with the problem of rape is by giving advice to the potential victims, rather than trying to stopping the rapists themselves.

Also you're just a misogynist in general.

Keeping potential victims away from people who seem like likely rapists and from behaviors with a high likelihood of getting raped (like getting drunk or using drugs) is a good personal strategy.
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