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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jon Tester/Cory Booker 2020? on: January 06, 2017, 01:10:25 pm
Assuming that Donald Trump will be a disaster as President, and that there will be a free election in 2020... Trump loses to just about any Democrat. Tester wins because America is polarized about 45-10-45 and will likely be so in 2020 as now.
102  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 06, 2017, 01:06:07 pm
I didn't expect a poll of Maryland, not that it contradicts anything that polls of New York, New Jersey, and Virginia already say.

First, the incumbent Republican Governor is doing very well in a deep-blue (Atlas Red) state: 74% approval! Fiscal conservative, but basically non-ideological... we could use much of that anywhere.

Second -- Donald Trump is deep underwater in approval -- 30% favorable (combined "somewhat" and "strongly" favorable) and 56% unfavorable -- with 48% seeing him as "strongly unfavorable".

http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Gonzales-Maryland-Media-Poll-January-2017.pdf

To be sure, New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland do not constitute or even contain a state easily described as a microcosm of America. I am more interested in Obama-Trump states for now. I'm guessing that if states from Virginia to Maine were to have their say on Donald Trump, then he'd be vulnerable to a military coup.  

Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

103  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Voting rights bills and lawsuits megathread (Updated: Jan 4th) on: January 06, 2017, 12:52:20 pm
Your statement that you are the person intending to vote on pain of sentence of perjury for any false statement should be enough.
104  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: why banning cell phone use in cars is dumb on: January 06, 2017, 12:50:35 pm
Hand it to a passenger.

I saw some speeder drive someone onto the shoulder, something unforgivable unless in an emergency. Basically it had better be a first responder.  I handed the cell phone to my aunt, whom I was taking back from a doctor's appointment, and asked her to deal "9-1-1" to report the incident to the police. I wanted that fellow busted and ticketed. I wanted to see him down the road with a state trooper making his day go bad.

I could not have called the cops at the time.
105  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McConnell says Americans won't tolerate Democrats blocking SCOTUS nominations on: January 05, 2017, 07:23:48 pm
Americans have no desire to acquiesce in the appointment and seating of extremist, corrupt, incompetent, or crony judges.
106  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Macy's shutting down 68 stores on: January 05, 2017, 02:18:05 pm
Wonder if he'll take credit when Sears/Kmart finally bites the dust.

If I never have to see either of those stores ever again, this whole presidency will be worth it.

I liked Kmart because it was the only retailer around here that wasn't the two evil empires: Wal-Mart and Target.

There will be Family Dollar and Dollar General, which have smaller stores with narrower aisles... and lower-end merchandise.  Michigan of course has Meijer... as a general pattern I find that as Meijer moves in, the K-Mart folds.

K-Mart has lots of forty-year-old, decrepit stores.... and not enough revenue to replace those decrepit stores. Those old K-Mart stores are depressing places.   
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare repealed...then what? on: January 05, 2017, 02:14:42 pm

So is this how a successful CEO runs a business? Just get rid of something that "we don't like" and worry about the details later?

Not deal with a replacement program until later, just get rid of the smelly thing first?

Seems to me you deal with the replacement program FIRST, have it ready at the helm, THEN get rid of the smelly thing. That's what rational minds would do, IMO.

If the Republicans had a coherent and improved alternative for Obamacare, then they could have introduced it while Obama was President during an active session, had a debate in both houses of Congress that brings the benefits before the public (including cost containment and obvious reforms in funding and implementation) and compel him to accept or reject it.

Now that the Republicans have a near-totalitarian level of control of the political process (as there is no obvious dissent possible within the Party and it can completely ignore the sensibilties of the Democrats) they probably can abolish it (and probably Medicare as well) and return to the model of maximal pricing for minimal service -- profit maximization. That people die? Tough luck! Such is the Will of God anyway in the most superstitious country in the Industrial West. The only fear that the Republicans have is of being defeated in the next election or two, and that could be preventable.

The right strategy would have been either to bring incremental reforms or to offer a viable substitute. That happens when politics is give-and-take and not simply getting away with what one can when one can. That is how democracy works.
 
We Americans no longer have a functioning democracy. ...

That's a very informative post. I wanted to acknowledge what you wrote, I enjoyed reading it. And you make sense about the fact that if they really had a coherent and improved alternative to Obamacare they would have presented it by now. My logical mind just can't comprehend why they want to repeal without offering anything better and cheaper because that's what they say they want. It must be all about ego because that's the only thing that makes any sense, which is actually a bad thing for the rest of us.

When I hear of people talking more about how people don't vote or that there is even their interest being recognized, I then just remember people that regurgitate 1920s economic philosophy forged into some bizarre form of purity folklore or masonic secret that was spoon fed to them by their boss or "mentor". In reality, your interests are no longer your own. Your new interests are you vertical's interests. Isn't that basically Fuedalism? That is, where people are scared into a system based on a dependence-based vertical?

If you really think about it, all this alt-right talk about "snowflakes" is really about them demeaning and belittling the Western idea of Personal Confidence. Combine this with talk about talk about the decline of families and businesses and you see that they are trying to Easternize our society. A lot of these pols took Non-West Political Cultures in their elite colleges and saw the value in getting voters more concerned about whether their bosses could theoretically pay them as more important than whether they actually  have enough money to live.

Vertical union? That's how Italian fascism attempted to organize the political system in the Corporate State. Basically the assembly-line worker had more of a shared interest in the welfare of management and ownership within his industry than with fellow assembly-line workers in another industry, and political representation was to be by industry. But Italy is Western, indeed the source of our modern Western civilization. Fascism is now an anathema in Italy.

Contempt for the West? The Japanese, South Koreans, and Taiwanese are  doing better than us Americans at many things. Chinese-Americans, Vietnamese-Americans, and South Asian Americans are doing well enough in America -- far better than white people in the Mountain and Deep South.

Don't ask about Latin-Americans. Latin America is as Western as Europe or the USA.  But here's a surprise for many of us -- they are often doing better than many white subcultures. They look out for themselves and respect formal education as one of the few reliable means out of poverty.

The problem is the rejection of rationality in America from largely white people. Decline of families? What's the problem? That we have same-sex marriage now? Nobody chooses to be gay, but many families go off in different directions to four different sources of electronic entertainment. Education? We don't respect it enough.


108  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Macy's shutting down 68 stores on: January 05, 2017, 01:55:19 pm
K-Mart does not have better merchandise or a price advantage over Wal*Mart.

The traditional department store was in trouble when its average customer a few years back was 59 years old. I doubt that that has improved.

Sears selling the Craftsman brand -- an indication of deep trouble. That was its biggest asset as a merchant, and all that made Sears distinct in retailing.
109  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why the pessimism about Donald Trump here? on: January 05, 2017, 01:48:03 pm
1. America is polarized into two different political universes, mutually exclusive and believing nearly-diametric opposites of what each other believe in. We have some honest-to-Mussolini fascists in the GOP and sober liberals in the Democratic Party...and that is as opposite as one can get. (Were it Commies in the Democratic Party and sober conservatives in the GOP, that observation would hold),

People are not moving away from their beliefs.

2. Donald Trump has chosen to go with extremism, going to a position in which wealth and corporate power are the real measures of political legitimacy.If 95% of the American people suffer greatly for only 2% who matter -- that's how he wants it.

3. We have questions of outside influence in the elections -- influence from outside the USA, from a firmly-authoritarian regime. Foreigners are not allowed even to make campaign contributions to Presidential and Congressional campaigns.  It would be bad enough if some State governor suppressed the vote -- but if foreigners got involved... we had a sham of an election.

4. We have an incoming President unlike any other in American history -- one who barks orders like a dictator, one who has promoted ethnic and religious bigotry, one who has admitted to grabbing women by their crotches... He has claimed to know more than the generals about war despite having never served in combat.  He has a stormy relationship with the CIA and the FBI.

He is no gentleman. He is no expert. He has a shady record as a businessman. Why should we expect him to grow into the Presidency?

5. He has a shaky mandate. He got about as much of a share of the popular vote as two Presidential nominees who are generally understood to have been trounced. -- less than 46% of the vote. He did better than Mike Dukakis in 1988 and John McCain in 2008 and got less than the winner of the popular vote.

6. He has shown contempt for science and education in favor of his personal intuition and the values of special interests.

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN? -- sure. Only for the upper 2%. The rest of us can work longer and harder under more brutal management for far less. All for Pharaoh.

How bad is Donald Trump? I expect big growth in the Communist Party (by its standards). I expect more people to emigrate. High-tech companies will find it harder to recruit and maintain highly-trained people in America. Secession movements will pop up where they have not existed before.

There can be only one good result for four years of the Trump Administration -- that people have learned  to stay clear of demagogues who show signs of sociopathy.

 
 
110  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 05, 2017, 01:28:46 pm
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.
111  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McConnell says Americans won't tolerate Democrats blocking SCOTUS nominations on: January 05, 2017, 01:23:44 pm
Mainstream is the best that Democrats can hope for for the next four years.

It has always been the duty of the minority Party to obstruct the inappropriate nominees for the Supreme Court -- the cronies of the President, the grossly-incompetent, the corrupt, and the inexperienced.

But let's remember this -- the Republicans can get away with practically anything for the next four years.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats and Democrat voters of 2016, what would cause you to vote Trump? on: January 05, 2017, 08:20:23 am
Threat of torture or murder.
113  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Skeptical Climate Scientists Coming In From the Cold on: January 05, 2017, 08:15:43 am
A seasonally-open Arctic Ocean implies huge changes in weather patterns -- and hence climate -- well beyond Arctic  regions. Winters will become less severe in inland mid-latitude regions, with the blizzards that supply and protect groundwater from winter evaporation practically disappearing in the Midwest.  Crop yields will plummet in the Midwest as prime farmland with dense populations is inundated.   
114  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump working on plan to cut CIA, restructure intelligence on: January 05, 2017, 08:07:09 am
I doubt that anyone not privy to classified information can assess how good a job the CIA does. It  can work well with a President who gives it a purpose and trusts it to achieve its purpose. After all, the CIA honed in on Osama bin Laden and allowed Special Forces the chance to whack him.

It is already on bad terms with the President-Elect, who would prefer to have a CIA-like organization to spy on his political enemies and opponents.
115  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare repealed...then what? on: January 04, 2017, 11:28:01 pm

So is this how a successful CEO runs a business? Just get rid of something that "we don't like" and worry about the details later?

Not deal with a replacement program until later, just get rid of the smelly thing first?

Seems to me you deal with the replacement program FIRST, have it ready at the helm, THEN get rid of the smelly thing. That's what rational minds would do, IMO.

If the Republicans had a coherent and improved alternative for Obamacare, then they could have introduced it while Obama was President during an active session, had a debate in both houses of Congress that brings the benefits before the public (including cost containment and obvious reforms in funding and implementation) and compel him to accept or reject it.

Now that the Republicans have a near-totalitarian level of control of the political process (as there is no obvious dissent possible within the Party and it can completely ignore the sensibilties of the Democrats) they probably can abolish it (and probably Medicare as well) and return to the model of maximal pricing for minimal service -- profit maximization. That people die? Tough luck! Such is the Will of God anyway in the most superstitious country in the Industrial West. The only fear that the Republicans have is of being defeated in the next election or two, and that could be preventable.

The right strategy would have been either to bring incremental reforms or to offer a viable substitute. That happens when politics is give-and-take and not simply getting away with what one can when one can. That is how democracy works.
 
We Americans no longer have a functioning democracy. We at best have something like the old Spanish Torno in which the winners of one election go after the losers of the previous election even to the extent of putting the prominent figures of the previous government in prison )Think of Donald Trump egging supporters on with "Lock her up!", undoing the legislative changes of the previous government, pushing a polarizing agenda, and enriching those connected to the winning Party.  With that one gets radical change but no sustained progress. That Torno ended with the accession of Francisco Franco to power in the Spanish Civil War. Franco ensured that there would be no change of government except over his dead body -- and that would take nearly forty years.

Now that I think of it -- Fidel Castro did much the same except to impose as  a godless and anti-capitalist order as Franco's regime was devout and plutocratic, and it will take at least sixty years for a meaningful change of government from the one that Castro established in the wake of the Cuban Revolution.    
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: teens live stream their torturing of bound and gagged trump supporter on: January 04, 2017, 09:08:28 pm


BTW, violent crime, murder rates, and murdered cops are at an all time high across the US. Turns out that #fakenews like 'hands up don't shoot' lies have real world consequences.


Speaking of  #narrativebuilding





Ok we get it...you hate BLM

It's a much better time to be a cop than it has been for a long time and a bad time to be a crook. Bullet-proof vests may not be an Obama solution, but they certainly make give the cop a big advantage over an armed (criminal) assailant. I would expect assailant fatalities to rise as police fatalities decline. The crook has to take aim at the police officer's head while the cop doesn't have to be so choosy about a target. A shot to the not-so-vital abdomen might make the crook vulnerable to a shot to a more vital organ (like the heart or brain).   

I understand that police deaths are more likely from vehicle accidents than from assailants. 

117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 04, 2017, 08:17:09 pm
It looks as if the President born in Kenya (according to many on the Right) is far better than the one made in Russia (according to the Left).
118  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 04, 2017, 01:50:32 pm

So far we have approval/disapproval in only three states. All three voted against Donald Trump, and voters in all three states don't think well of him. We have no approval polls (he has yet to be inaugurated!)... and PPP will show us results for its favorite state to poll, North Carolina, which barely went for Donald Trump. There was no statewide polling over the Christmas and New Years' weekends... I expect that to change.

We will probably also see polls from Quinnipiac. The map is ready for copious polls, as there will be some hot Governors' races in 2018  in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Because governors have some control over whether voter suppression happens or does not happen, those five races may be more important for 2020 than whether the Republicans make gains in the Senate (which I expect because the Democrats have more potential seats to lose).

By winning the critical governors' races in 2018, Republicans can seal doom for the Democratic Party and liberalism in America.


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  
119  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 04, 2017, 01:21:55 pm
PPP will be polling north Carolina this weekend.
120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What would happen to the Wisconsin GOP if Roe v. Wade were overturned? on: January 04, 2017, 01:08:32 pm
North Carolina Govrenor Jim Cooper is a Democrat.

You would see an immediate court challenge to the law in question. In Wisconsin case the state SC may uphold the law as the state SC has a 7-2 GOP majority, however the seventh circuit court would probably strike down  the hypothetical law. I could imagine the fifth circuit court upholding an abortion ban law though. Depending on what occurred in circuit court would impact whether the Supreme Court would here the case. If all the circuit courts strike down the law in question then the SC probably refuses to here an appeal, however if their is conflicting rulings or if all the circuit courts uphold the law, then the Supreme Court would probably agree to here the appeal. As for how the Supreme Court would rule, probably 6-3 to strike down the abortion ban, and that is with President Trump appointing a pro life justice to the SC. I honestly doubt that either Roberts or Kennedy would support over turning Roe v Wade.


As for Scott Walker it probably backfires big time on him, and he looses reelection in 2018. Though much like HB2 in NC it probably dosent doom the entire state party.

Donald Trump will need Scott Walker as Governor of Wisconsin to have a reasonable chance of winning Wisconsin in 2020. A Democrat will do nothing to suppress the black vote in the state, and that would likely ensure that any Democrat wins Wisconsin in 2020 for the Presidential nominee.

The critical elections of 2018 will be for Governors of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida. If Republicans lose two of those three, then Donald Trump will be a dead duck in a re-election bid. 
121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why the pessimism about Donald Trump here? on: January 04, 2017, 01:02:44 pm
One thing I have noticed, as I have looked through posts and topics here, is that many seem to be pessimistic about Donald Trump's chances as President. Now, I know that Trump is a repulsive character for many people, and I can understand that. Yet at the same time, it seems that all the election scenarios and all the maps are pointed in the direction of a Trump failure? Would people here be making the same prediction about Hillary Clinton, had she won the election?

Had the election gone the other way, then we would have a Democratic President and almost certainly a Democratic majority in the House -- and more of the same gridlock that we have had since 2011. We might solve nothing, but we would have no looming disaster.

Instead we have a cruel, vindictive, bossy man whose ideology suggests an admiration for Gilded-Age plutocrats and perhaps agrarian racists of the Jim-Crow South, someone who has won on a slogan that means whatever he wants it to mean... and a Congress willing to do his bidding. No human suffering is in excess (short of chattel slavery, but debt bondage might be acceptable) so long as it enriches elites and allows their unlimited indulgence.

Donald Trump can force change in America, but I see none of the change as an unqualified good. Like Dubya he is a big-government right-winger, a socialist for the rich, but he has far more severe vices than Dubya had. Can you imagine Dubya talking about personal violence or grabbing women by their crotches? Just imagine what happens to some non-white street thug who grabs an attractive, middle-class white woman by her crotch without her consent and is convicted in a court of law. Ten years for sexual assault? That might be harsh, and less for a frat boy who does such with a pretty white girl, or some member of a minority group who does such with one of 'his kind'. Decent people don't even talk about doing something of the sort.  

His foreign policy is a mess. He has a sick admiration of authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. A real conservative would admire Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher -- not Moammar Qaddafi, Vladimir Putin, Satan Hussein, or any of the absolute-monarchs in all but name in North Korea. About the only wisdom that he showed was to not praise Fidel Castro.

Speaking of Fidel Castro... he is (and in philosophical language one uses the present tense to describe anyone deceased as a repository of ideas and a list of behaviors because the reputation outlasts the body) a dictator. His rigid rhetoric is on an elementary level,  is full of populist resentment. The difference between Donald Trump (who will likely be as militaristic as Castro and has a tendency to bark out orders like a tyrant) is not how Donald Trump sees capitalism, but rather that Castro excoriates what Trump exults.

I am already sick of his rhetoric, and I can imagine myself getting similarly sick of Castro propaganda.

I do not expect politicians to entertain me. Politics is too important to become a way of entertaining people. Barack Obama not entertain us much. The most derided of Roman Emperors, Caligula, Nero, and Commodus, were adept at ensuring that everyone had a good time watching as Christians were offered to  "lions and tigers and bears -- oh my!", except of course for the Christians, not to mention gladiatorial games. I thought "No Drama Obama" fully adequate. Want drama? Watch episodes of Downton Abbey or Breaking Bad, dammit! Want sports? Get cable TV and you can get plenty of baseball, football, hockey, and basketball. Maybe track and field and ice skating. Tough luck if you want to see religious pariahs cast into a tank full of great white sharks or leopard seals.  

For Donald Trump there is no precedent in American history. Precedents elsewhere are horrible. He's practically a foreign agent. His idea of how to get prosperity is to have a corrupt speculative boom... which usually ends in a financial panic as in 1893, 1907, 1929, or 2008.

"Make America Great Again" -- sure. Only if you are super-rich, so far as I can tell, in view of his cabinet selections.

I expect to hate life. I wish that I had dual citizenship.  
122  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare repealed...then what? on: January 03, 2017, 06:12:26 pm
It's a profits-first system based upon cost-loading without subsidies or welfare  -- the worst possible system. Run out of money when sick? You die if loved ones don't mortgage away their dreams. There will be people deciding whether to live or die.

It won't be pretty. Vote Republican and vote for economic sadism.

"Medicare for All", 2020 Democratic campaign slogan.

123  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Congress has returned and Republicans are in charge... on: January 03, 2017, 03:39:58 pm
I guess that they won't be able to get rich off insider information within Congress.
124  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 03, 2017, 03:36:22 pm
A new Gallup poll has Americans highly skeptical of the ability of Donald Trump to achieve  some of the critical functions of the Presidency.


Quote
    Confidence in Presidents-Elect to Handle Presidential Responsibilities
Now I'd like you to think about [...]'s ability to handle a number of things over the next four years. Please tell me whether you are very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident that [...] can ... ?

TOWC
                                                                                %    %    %    %
Prevent major scandals in his administration            44    74    77    n/a
Handle an international crisis                                    46    73    71    70
Use military force wisely                                            47    71    78    n/a
Manage the executive branch effectively                    53    84    77    n/a
Defend U.S. interests abroad as president                    55    75    n/a    65
Handle the economy effectively                                    59    n/a    n/a    n/a
Work effectively with Congress to get things done    60    89    74    n/a

-- Trump O- Obama  W - "Dubya" C- Bill Clinton

 

Ouch!

I think that Trump gets an edge on the economy because such is what he promised  and was most careful in remaining secretive about. People may assume that because he is a tycoon he will get economic improvement by using his business acumen to promote economic growth. Because he has a sure majority in both Houses of Congress on everything he can be expected to do fairly well -- but even with such majorities he is seen less likely to succeed with Congress as with Obama or Dubya. 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201158/skeptical-trump-handle-presidential-duties.aspx
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Klobuchar’s former USSR tour on: January 03, 2017, 01:46:31 pm
Foreign policy may be easy in 2020. If Donald Trump and the GOP Congress push a right-wing agenda of shifting taxes to the non-rich, eviscerating unions, making it safe (for a business) to dump toxic stuff anywhere, outlawing abortion, allowing child labor.... then Democrats can win big in 2020 on economic issues alone.   
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