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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. national poll: Clinton 52% Christie 39% on: March 28, 2014, 06:04:37 am
no one cares

I can guarantee you that at least 18 million people in this country do care.

and the other 290 million don't

They may have other concerns now -- like spring planting, potholes that can mess up the suspensions of their vehicles, the health of family members, how the family dinner is cooking in the oven... but millions already are shaping their opinions of how to force change in the American political process -- especially when the President is far from wildly-popular and Congress has approval ratings near the range of flatulence in public.

You are going on ignore, fellow. Ugly-but-irrelevant monikers usually indicate ugly-but-irrelevant thoughts.   
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NM-PPP: Hillary with big leads on: March 28, 2014, 05:54:12 am
Victory margin among Hispanics:

Bush vs. Clinton: Clinton +34
Christie vs. Clinton: Clinton +38
Cruz vs. Clinton: Clinton +39
Huckabee vs. Clinton: Clinton +45
Martinez vs. Clinton: Clinton +34
Paul vs. Clinton: Clinton +44

Victory margin among whites:

Bush vs. Clinton: tie
Christie vs. Clinton: tie
Cruz vs. Clinton: Clinton +1
Huckabee vs. Clinton: Clinton +4
Martinez vs. Clinton: tie
Paul vs. Clinton: Paul +5

LMFAO at Rand Paul among Hispanics. The buffoon actually thinks he can "grow the party". LOL

Rand Paul is no more a buffoon than many other Republicans. For a real buffoon there is Sarah Palin, whose mangled diction confuses or offends anyone whose first language isn't English. That describes many in New Mexico, no matter how good their English is as a second language. (A basic rule: stay close to the formal register of English when talking to anyone who might not be a native speaker of English. Non-standard English confuses such people because it needs double-translation). He does not have the serial-marriage 'problem' that Newt Gingrich has.

New Mexico has the largest percentage of Hispanics in the US except perhaps for California. The GOP is losing middle-class Hispanics and needs to have one as the Gubernatorial nominee, and at that someone liberal by GOP standards, to win the state.

Rand Paul is Hard Right on economics if not on military issues...  that's not how to convince people who rely more upon formal education than upon ownership of property for success. In general any non-white, non-Anglo, and non-Christian segments of the middle class rely heavily upon education for qualifying for the work that they do.

Republicans have a better chance of winning Pennsylvania or Michigan than they have of winning New Mexico.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 28, 2014, 05:31:36 am
Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?

I think that would be a good idea. Ryan does not seem to be viable, but at least Huckabee has chance.

I concur. All in all, someone can be an ex-governor, go into the media as a political outsider, and win the Presidency by winning support as a conservative critic of liberals (Carter) and people 'not conservative enough' (Ford).  That's what Ronald Reagan did. Arkansas is not too small to have a current or former Governor become President (Bill Clinton did that). Obviously I am not saying that Mike Huckabee would do as well in a Presidential campaign as either. I can imagine him winning the nomination, which is enough. 

With Paul Ryan I have problems. Recent nominees for VP who have done badly in their one opportunity generally don't get nominated for President.  William Miller? Sargent Shriver? Geraldine Ferraro? Sarah Palin? We all saw what sort of campaigner he was in 2012; as the chance for winning the Presidency waned he started defending his House seat. 

He has never won a statewide election in his own state. Successful candidates  for the Presidency and Vice- Presidency since 1960 have all done so before such runs. (Dick Cheney won for the at-large Congressional district of Wyoming, so that qualifies him on this criterion). I would have to qualify him as having won a statewide election in Wisconsin  had he won Wisconsin as a VP nominee. Heck, George H W Bush had won all three states that he was associated in 1980 and 1984 -- his birth state (Maine, reliably D in Presidential elections after 1988), the state in which he spend his childhood years and college career (Connecticut, likewise), and the state in which he had some business and political career (Texas, not a sure thing for Republicans until 2000). The elder Bush at least had some impressive diplomatic and Cabinet posts. 

With a comparatively-safe seat he may be interested in power in the House. He's more likely to become Speaker of the House than President of the United States, and that is arguably the second-most powerful office in the US government. 

Finally he is not a war hero, so he could never turn a war record into Presidential success despite never holding statewide office as did Dwight Eisenhower.

I haven't seen many recent polls for Ryan but I have seen some for Huckabee. Those for Ryan are getting old even if there are more for him than for Huckabee. I see two precedents for Mike Huckabee becoming President of the United States (Reagan! Clinton!) and none for Paul Ryan.

Here's what a set of maps with Huckabee but not Ryan would look like:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold Prediction: HILLARY TO WIN MO in '16 (if she runs) on: March 28, 2014, 04:52:06 am
We have no recent polls of Missouri. The state most similar in its voting pattern to Missouri is now Georgia, which has a very different history. Missouri has a Rust Belt city (St. Louis), Kansas City (which I find hard to characterize), and parts similar to neighboring Iowa, Kansas, and the Arkansas Ozarks.  It even has an area that looks and feels like the Deep South (the extreme southeast), characteristic of Mississippi or eastern Arkansas -- cotton country.

Missouri isn't in an obvious region; like Texas it straddles regions and is not a region in itself. Unlike Texas it does not have a region within itself.       
105  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 27, 2014, 07:16:28 pm
The case seems settled in New Mexico:

Quote
New Mexico voters are still pretty closely divided on the issue of gay marriage- 47% support it and 45% are opposed. But when it comes to the impact that its being legal for the last few months has had in the state there's a pretty strong consensus it hasn't been a big deal. Only 24% think it's had a negative impact on their lives with 76% saying either that it's had no impact at all (58%) or a positive effect (18%). There's no debate among voters in the state anymore when it comes to legal rights for same sex couples- 74%, including 64% of Republicans, support at least civil unions with only 24% opposed to any sort of legal recognition.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

A referendum against SSM would probably fail in New Mexico.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


[/quote]
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 27, 2014, 07:02:52 pm
Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 27, 2014, 07:00:06 pm
New Mexico, PPP -- and Huckabee is not doing well there.  Of course, New Mexico is no longer a legitimate swing state. 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 27, 2014, 06:54:03 pm
Quote
Martinez would trail Hillary Clinton 53/39 in a hypothetical contest in the state. That does make her the strongest potential Republican candidate though. Clinton would also lead Rand Paul 51/36, Jeb Bush 53/37, Ted Cruz 54/37, Chris Christie 53/35, and Mike Huckabee 55/34. New Mexico hasn't been close in the last two Presidential elections and if Clinton runs that trend looks likely to continue in 2016.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is more likely to flip in a Hillary Clinton vs Jeb Bush election? on: March 27, 2014, 05:07:45 pm
Well, I guess I would respond this way.  As far as Hillary goes, it's not surprising she performs relatively well right now.  She's very well known.  She was first lady, a Senator from New York, a high profile candidate for the Democrat nomination in 2008, and just completed a term as Secretary of State.  Having said that, Clinton's job at State was, essentially, non-political and that has definitely boosted the image most have of her.

A well-known analogy. I remember seeing a projection of an Obama-McCain contest that showed Obama winning 27 electoral votes -- those of Illinois, Hawaii, and DC. But know well -- Barack Obama was still little known.

Also know well -- most projections show Hillary Clinton basically winning states that Barack Obama won, so she is far behind John McCain at this stage.

Quote
At about the same time in the 2008 process though, a well known Senator named John McCain also led the vast majority of presidential polls and by a lot in some of them.  Yet as time wore on, Bush fatigue caught up with McCain and Republicans.  Bush's approval numbers and the war in Iraq became a huge drag.  Both of those issues were hot early in 2006, yet he looked in good shape then just as Clinton does today.

George W. Bush would be widely seen as a disaster as a President by the early autumn of 2008 -- but through the middle of 2006 he wasn't. Not until the  November election was it clear that Dubya was a disaster on foreign policy, his "mission accomplished" proving increasingly less than accomplished. The economy was still chugging along... but wise people saw how sordid its realities were.  Those people did not shape the election.

Dubya was still getting away with a bungled war and an economy based on a rip-off (a speculative boom financed on predatory loans). In 2006 the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were beginning to go bad, and by November the Democrats offered a solution. Many of the inexpensive ads looked like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbAaJf34OJo

Quote
As we saw in 2008 though, Democrats tarred and feathered Republicans all over the country with Bush's problems.  Even though Bush and McCain rarely saw eye to eye, Democrats made the case McCain was running for Bush's third term and it worked.  McCain just couldn't shake the unpopular president and all that came with him.

No. Dubya created those problems with his reckless foreign policy and the worst economic stewardship of any President in decades. Dubya would have created fewer problems had he promoted the usual Republican policy of promoting thrift and industrial investment with low taxes and limited spending. Instead Dubya was a reckless spender in ways that Republicans usually attribute to Democrats, and his reckless spending exploded on America. So did the speculative boom.

Had I been a conservative Republican I would have promoted thrift and industrial investment with the expectation that people getting jobs would be able to qualify for cars, houses, etc.  But that's not the sort of policy that the GOP stood for around 2001.  

Quote
Given that, why would Clinton or any Democrat be immune from Obama's problems?  Why wouldn't Republicans be able to tar and feather her with all of Obama's problems like a stagnant economy and an unpopular healthcare plan?  After all, Clinton has to be considered closely associated with Obama's tenure since she served as his Secretary of State.  They may not see eye to eye on some issues, but neither did Bush and McCain.

Barack Obama hasn't started any budget-busting wars. He has not supported a speculative boom likely to go bust. He is very cautious. He does not create problems as Dubya did.

Quote
If the situation in 2016 is as toxic for Obama as it is today, I just don't see how the country decides to go with his heir apparent when they never have in the past.  Now, of course, that could all change if Republicans nominate an unelectable candidate like Cruz or Paul or the economy improves, but history suggests no national candidate of the same party can overcome the low numbers of the current occupant.

What is more 'toxic' is that we are no longer so tolerant of Presidential misconduct, reckless spending, and rash foreign policy. We are too fussy to tolerate another George Worthless Bush, and in the toxic environment that Dubya created for trust in politicians, our fussiness could be a good thing.  

President Obama seems to be taking the rap for Democratic 'failure'... and it is still possible that Obamacare will work well for Democrats.

110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: California-Secretary Of State; Leland Yee indicted for gun trafficking on: March 27, 2014, 06:36:28 am
Horrific if true. An elected official deeply involved with a criminal syndicate?

Arrrrgh!
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 27, 2014, 06:27:12 am
In case you didn't put much credibility in a university pollster of Virginia that you may have never heard from, another university pollster (Quinnipiac) that you have heard much of pares a likely Clinton lead over Huckabee.

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent ...
Quote
   49 - 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025

An 8-point lead is fairly close to what Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012.

... What will it take for me to replace Paul Ryan, who had a disastrous campaign for VP in 2012 and would be running from the House of Representatives whence nobody has successfully campaigned for the Presidency since the 19th century, with Mike Huckabee? Pollsters seem to not be taking Ryan seriously.

A Wisconsin poll that excludes Ryan but has Huckabee?

Mike Huckabee needs not begin an official campaign for a nearly two years yet. He's getting much publicity on FoX "News" Channel, and really can't make an official campaign while having a show on FoX "News". Company policy.  He's savvy about media -- savvy enough to avoid hostile audiences for now.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 27, 2014, 06:14:21 am
Quinnipiac, Virginia:

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent and tops other possible Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential race:

    47 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025
    

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could a Republican Senate be good for Mrs. Clinton? on: March 27, 2014, 04:14:27 am
If the Repub Senate is as big government as her of course.

George W. Bush was a big-government right-winger. Although Republicans have been wise enough not to show the catastrophic failure of a President as a model they have yet to renounce his political philosophy.   
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Walker up 7 on: March 26, 2014, 05:32:25 pm
The e-mail scandal hasn't hit yet.

Quote
Sixty-seven percent of voters say they have read or heard about the release of some 27,000 pages of emails from employees in Walker’s office when he was Milwaukee County Executive, while 31 percent have not. Of those who have read or heard about them 43 percent say the emails give them a less favorable view of Walker while 53 percent say the emails made no difference and 3 percent say they have a more favorable view.

Democrats can still hit him on that.  What was he hiding? Why the secrecy?
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could a Republican Senate be good for Mrs. Clinton? on: March 26, 2014, 05:30:12 pm
If the Republicans seem crazy enough they set her for a sure win.
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 26, 2014, 04:45:14 pm
Obama job approval: Now, 47% approve, 49% disapprove. In January, 44% approve, 50% disapprove. #mulawpoll

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

Huge recovery from Marquette University's last poll, and I expect to see huge improvements for the President's approval ratings elsewhere. If President Obama were seeking a Third Term this year (contrafactual in many ways) he would have to campaign -- but he would probably win 53% or 54% of the vote in Wisconsin. 
 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)



117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 26, 2014, 04:39:11 pm
Wisconsin, Marquette Law School.

If Wis voted today on continuing its constitutional ban on same sex marriage, 36% would keep ban, 59% would repeal.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

"How would people vote?" looks like a good proxy for approval. Should there be an initiative/referendum on the issue in Wisconsin in November, SSM wins -- big. 



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

118  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Secret Service interrogates man for satirical article about Obama's daughters on: March 26, 2014, 08:24:20 am
The Secret Service takes its job seriously.  Even joking about something so serious as assassinating, assaulting, or kidnapping the President or members of his family can draw its attention. People who talk about killing the President while drunk in a bar in St. Joseph, Missouri might find themselves getting harsh questions and a hard lecture from the Secret Service if the President is going to appear in Kansas City, Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Topeka, or maybe St. Louis.  All it takes for the assassination of the President is an angry person, a firearm, and access... let us say to a very open speech by the President.

Maybe the Secret Service discovers that "it's the liquor talking"... but that takes some time to clear. It is surely a rough time.

Yeah, they know all about that.  https://news.yahoo.com/3-secret-agents-benched-obama-trip-024351439--politics.html

Vulnerability to liquor and sexual indiscretion is so commonplace that one almost has to excuse those who fall... unless there is a conflict of interest or there are dangerous consequences.  
119  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Secret Service interrogates man for satirical article about Obama's daughters on: March 26, 2014, 07:52:53 am
The Secret Service takes its job seriously.  Even joking about something so serious as assassinating, assaulting, or kidnapping the President or members of his family can draw its attention. People who talk about killing the President while drunk in a bar in St. Joseph, Missouri might find themselves getting harsh questions and a hard lecture from the Secret Service if the President is going to appear in Kansas City, Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Topeka, or maybe St. Louis.  All it takes for the assassination of the President is an angry person, a firearm, and access... let us say to a very open speech by the President.

Maybe the Secret Service discovers that "it's the liquor talking"... but that takes some time to clear. It is surely a rough time.
120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: i'm starting to think the u.s. should (temporarily) have a foreign person on: March 26, 2014, 07:36:55 am
What about a moderate technocrat?

Technocrats get surprisingly-bad results in practice. They are command-and-control types who just can't cope with the realities of democracy. 
121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Let's ignore this graph and talk about climate change on: March 26, 2014, 07:31:03 am
CO2 content of the atmosphere is only part of the story. The most important greenhouse gas is H20 (water vapor). Greater warming of the atmosphere goes in part into the evaporation of water from bodies of water, and accelerates the warming because water vapor is an even more potent greenhouse gas than is carbon dioxide.  More water vapor in the air implies a higher floor for night-time cooling (which explains autumn fogs).

It is the dryness of polar air that creates the cold temperatures of polar areas and of cold waves that emanate from those areas. 

It would not take much for the arctic sea ice to melt. As it is, the minimum level of ice in the Arctic is typically in September, when incoming solar radiation is slight. But if the ice should be gone in June or July, the heating of Arctic waters could be very intense, with a sharp warm season in the upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Sunlight in the Arctic around the summer solstice is as intense as that in tropical areas. We would probably see forests appearing around the shores of the arctic regions, and forests are some of the darkest land surfaces possible. That would intensify global warming in itself.

Winters would be shorter in the Arctic, and winter cold waves would reach not so far south. Such could move the northern edge of the tropical zone northward in North America to the latitude of Jacksonville or even Savannah. Palm trees could appear in places like Dallas, Atlanta, and Baltimore. (As it is, Dallas looks temperate even though summer temperatures say "Hell"... but it gets some sharp winter cold waves and severe frosts).   
122  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why do conservatives hate Hollywood? on: March 26, 2014, 07:01:43 am
They see Hollywood as being against "family values". It's easy to blame mass media for society's problems instead of looking within your own household and community.

The paradox is that in the 1930s and 1940s the Hollywood studios endorsed traditional family values and mainstream religion so that the studios would not release movies that offended potential audiences. The studio owners and bosses, then largely Jewish, recognized that they could shape attitudes toward religion in general. Those Jewish studio owners and bosses went to the moralizers of the day and asked for the Hays code that prohibited the movie studios from doing what those studios' owners wanted prohibited. They treated all mainstream religion sympathetically, promoting a "take care of your own and leave the rest alone" attitude.  Ridicule of religion of any kind would encourage antipathy toward Jews as emanated from German cinema at the time. Of course the Hays code kept the Jew-baiting bilge of Hitlerland out of America as well as excessively-racy, gratuitously violent, or anti-religious material out of the theaters. It was good for business.

 
123  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 26, 2014, 06:44:07 am
To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

We may yet have the issue resolved in a USSC ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia.

There is still much disapproval of interracial marriage, but there is some finality to court rulings.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: March 25, 2014, 01:41:21 pm
March 20-23, 2014

Survey of 674 New Mexico voters (PPP)


Quote
Q2
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Susana Martinez’s job performance?

52% Approve
40% Disapprove
8% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NM_325.pdf

Very good for a Republican in a D state.  Her leads over potential Democratic challengers are as low as 5%., which is usually small for an incumbent. But it is New Mexico, so that is very good. If she can avoid controversies she will be OK in November.

  


1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).
125  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 25, 2014, 01:25:52 pm
March 20-23, 2014
Survey of 674 New Mexico voters


Quote
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
44% Approve
48% Disapprove
8%  Not sure


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NM_325.pdf
 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)







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