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101  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 12, 2014, 10:02:28 pm
Might I humbly suggest just tracking popularity/approval of same-sex marriage by state?

Legality of same-sex marriage, or court rulings that might reflect this legality, could be considered a separate issue and included on a map of "legal status of same-sex marriage." This would really simplify the map. Plus it would be interesting to know, say, whether Iowans have come around to the policies their state supreme court imposed on them, or whether they continue to resist.

You are welcome to start your 'rival' map.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 12, 2014, 01:50:39 pm
PPP is polling Mississippi this week and Colorado next week. Both should be extremely interesting.

No Democratic nominee for President has won Mississippi since 1976 (Carter); the conditions in which Carter won Mississippi are long past.

The state that would really be interesting is Tennessee.
103  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 12, 2014, 10:23:45 am
Pbrower, I genuinely appriciate the work you do on these maps, but they're completely unintelligible.

1. Legality of SSM is white.  No further distinction in approval or disapproval of SSM is shown. Local officials are required to accept applications for SSM for adults unless there is some obvious bar as insanity or incestuousness.

This does not mean solely that places under federal jurisdiction within a state (such as military bases or Indian reservations) recognize SSM. If Arizona state law prohibits SSM but Indian reservations or military bases allow SSM in accordance with federal law, then the polling applies to the state.

A state could go to some other color from white if the state outlaws SSM through legislation or initiative/referendum -- but that is highly unlikely.

2. If SSM is not legal, then a green shade applies to that state should there be plurality support of SSM. More intense shades imply stronger approval. A red shade applies to any state in which extant polling shows that SSM has greater disapproval than approval, more intense shades indicating stronger disapproval. Yellow is for a tie.

The rationale of the distinction  is that states in green could approve same-sex marriage either through legislation or initiative/referendum -- which would not happen in a state in which SSM has stronger disapproval than approval. We may see 'evolution' in the process, which is possible.

3. Blue and orange are for legal limbo. The decision is likely to be made in state or federal courts. Blue (Colorado) indicates that there is an appeal, but it is presumed that SSM could be approved by legislation or referendum before an appeal is completed. Orange indicates that legalization is unlikely based upon the most recent polls (Arkansas) or what I reasonably assume (Idaho). Tan indicates that the appeal is going to the US Supreme Court, whose decision is definitive no matter what polls indicate.

4. It all goes white if some ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia is made by the US Supreme Court. The Supreme Court does not heed polls.       
104  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 12, 2014, 10:00:33 am
"Saturation" means intensity or darkness of color."1" is practically white; "2" and "3" are pastel shades; "4", "5", and "6" are middling shades; "7", "8", and "9" are dark to nearly-black.

For "no color" (gray) no distinction is possible.     
105  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 10, 2014, 08:38:06 am
Colorado.





For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

106  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 10, 2014, 08:36:19 am
Quote
An Adams County District Court judge on Wednesday declared Colorado's ban on same-sex marriages unconstitutional, but he immediately stayed his ruling.

Judge C. Scott Crabtree pulled no punches in his 49-page ruling, saying the state's voter-approved ban "bears no rational relationship to any conceivable government interest."

The ruling makes Colorado the latest in a string of 16 states that have seen their bans on same-sex marriages tossed out by state and federal judges.

The ruling came as another judge in Boulder County considered a request by Attorney General John Suthers to stop a county clerk from issuing marriage licenses to gay couples. And last week, attorneys filed a federal lawsuit seeking to challenge Colorado's gay marriage ban.

Attorneys for 18 plaintiffs — nine couples — from Denver and Adams counties argued that the state's ban on same-sex marriage violates the U.S. Constitution.

"We are ecstatic. There is much cheering in our house," Sandra Abbott said after Crabtree's ruling. She and her partner, Amy Smart, were one of the nine couples in the lawsuit. "We waited a long time for this ruling."

Suthers' office said it will appeal the ruling.

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26118709/adams-judge-tosses-colorado-gay-marriage-ban-but
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Conservatives Are Purposely Making Their Cars Spew Black Smoke To Protest Obama on: July 09, 2014, 08:55:30 pm
This is just more of the Harlequin theater performed by the fundamentalist wings of both parties. Liberals have slowly but surely built the most reprehensible entitlement state on earth. Conservatives have slowly built the most reprehensible social platform in the world.


This is dangerous behavior -- behavior that can get people killed. Black smoke can blind a driver and cause severe accidents. This is in the same league as putting metal into trees so that if someone takes a power saw to the tree, the metal will be shot off wildly, perhaps injuring a lumberjack.
108  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 09, 2014, 08:40:31 pm
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Utah is going directly to the nation's highest court to challenge an appellate ruling that gay couples have a constitutional right to marry, the state attorney general's office announced Wednesday.

If the U.S. Supreme court decides to take the case, it will be the first time the top court considers gay marriage since justices last year struck down part of the federal Defense of Marriage Act.

"It is a milestone that when the Supreme Court reconvenes in October, there will be at least one (gay marriage) petition pending," said Jon Davidson, director of Lambda Legal, which pursues litigation on LGBT issues nationwide.

The high court is under no obligation to the take the case, and it could wait for rulings from one or more of the five other appellate courts with gay marriage cases pending, legal scholars say.

But legal experts predict the nation's top court will consider a gay marriage case sometime in 2015 or later.

.....

The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments about Virginia's ban in early May, and a ruling is expected soon. Arguments are scheduled for August and September in two different courts for cases out of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Nevada and Idaho.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/09/utah-gay-marriage_n_5571647.html
109  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is the rural Midwest "easier" to live in than the rural/suburban South? on: July 09, 2014, 06:00:54 am
Conventional wisdom would suggest

I'm sorry, but what conventional wisdom? Urban and suburban convictions of their own surpreme splendidness?

A lot of rural places have a surplus of jobs compared to their population due to natural resources. Housing and living costs are a lot cheaper so you get a lot further on a smaller income than you would in a big city. A family in the rural Midwest can live a comfortable middle-class life style on the same income that would leave a family in New York barely scrapping by. 

I recall a study that suggested that $100k in NYC would buy roughly the same lifestyle that $38k would in a small city in the South. If you're a service worker making not much over minimum wage, you'll stretch your dollars much further outside the major metros.

If one actually paid rent to live in NYC and worked for the minimum wage, one would literally starve to death unless one did dumpster-diving.

As a rule, a high cost of living correlates with economic opportunities. The opportunities in New York City are far more varied than those in the Rural South. New York City is a tough place to live if one is not from there and is not at the top of his game.

On the other side -- what is so easy about making a living as a farm laborer? 

 
110  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Surnames and voting on: July 09, 2014, 05:53:58 am
In honor of my mother, who died on Monday morning:

Knauss 646 D 925 R


Hotel chains:

Hyatt 6229 D 6989 R
Hilton 10029 D 9808 R

Vehicle brands:

(I have Ford already)

Buick 161 D 118 D
Dodge 7288 D 9053 R
Chrysler 378 D 443 R
Mack 37535 D 13524 R
Toyota 81 D 27 R
Suzuki 1533 D 495 R
Honda 812 D 287 R (Japanese-Americans seem about as D as Jews)
Harley 5896 D 2481 R  
Davidson 36125 D 36583 R
Rolls 386 D 383 R
Royce 1667 D 1753 R
Studebaker 753 D 1117 R
Lada 279 D 274 R
Maxwell 25245 D 21617 R (Jack Benny's car -- part of his shtick)



I could not find numbers for Chevrolet, Cadillac, or Porsche. Don't expect Volvo, GMC, Oldsmobile, Fiat, or Volkswagen, either.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Likely Hillary Clinton popular vote margin and why? on: July 08, 2014, 11:54:41 pm
My guess:




Hillary Clinton wins at 51% deep red
                                   52% medium red
                                   53% pink
                                   54% white
                                   55% pale blue
                                   56% medium blue
112  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: July 08, 2014, 07:13:19 pm
If one includes only likely voters, Obama’s approval rating increases to 47%, disapproval at 41%, and unsure at 12%.

http://gravismarketing.com/uncategorized/current-minnesota-polling


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)







113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: July 08, 2014, 07:07:15 pm
Louisiana Miscellany

PPP's newest Louisiana poll continues to find that Bobby Jindal is among the least popular Governors in the country, and that there is minimal support for him running for President even in his home state. Only 32% of voters approve of the job Jindal is doing to 56% who disapprove. Among Republicans his numbers are relatively tepid (57/33 approval). His numbers with independents pretty closely mirror his overall ones (32/57), and support from Democrats is virtually nonexistent (12/75).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/07/louisiana-miscellany.html#more

 


1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could LA be competitive in 2016? on: July 08, 2014, 01:46:12 pm
It would be very close, according t the latest PPP poll.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does the Eric Cantor primary loss mean for 2016? on: July 08, 2014, 01:41:22 pm
Republicans need both the Corporate wing and the tea Party wing to win  elections in most states and districts.

I thought in 2010 that the two wings would eventually turn on each other -- Corporate Rs distrusting the populism inherent in the Tea Party and Tea Party types recognizing that Corporate America will not abandon its profitable businesses in booze, gambling, and soft-core porn. About all that they have in common is contempt for liberalism. 
116  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Map of Evangelicals and Mormons on: July 08, 2014, 01:12:04 pm
Kern County, California really sticks out despite having a very large city (Bakersfield). The large Hispanic population likely votes strong-D as elsewhere in California.

All that you need to know is that Merle Haggard and Buck Owens are from Kern County. No, Buck Owens wasn't very political and Haggard is erratic in his politics. Think of The Grapes of Wrath, novel or movie.   
117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 08, 2014, 12:52:57 pm
June 26-29, 2014
Survey of 664 Louisiana voters

information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Q13
Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Louisiana, or not?
32%
Think it should be allowed
...............................
55%
Think it should not be
......................................
13%
Not sure
.......................................................




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 08, 2014, 12:48:51 pm
PPP, Louisiana

Jeb Bush......................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 46%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_702.pdf

It now looks as if almost all the gains that the Republicans have made with Louisiana voters beginning in 2000 have evaporated. The two leads shown by Republicans are razor-thin and unreliable.

Hillary Clinton seems to have kept just about every voter that Barack Obama picked up for 2012 while not being so polarizing in the South. I am satisfied that there is more to her campaign in 2016 than nostalgia for a better time.    
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 08, 2014, 10:43:55 am
Quinnipiac, nationwide (and ugly for Republicans):

In the 2016 presidential race, American voters back Hillary Clinton over leading Republican contenders:

    47 - 38 percent over Christie;
    49 - 40 percent over Paul;
    49 - 40 percent over Huckabee;
    48 - 41 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2058


 
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: July 08, 2014, 10:08:30 am
Maggie Hassan, D-NH, Granite State poll:

Up 60-22.

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/26832142/data/1/-/qdnf3rz/-/GSP---Governor-7-7.pdf


 


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/crist-scott-tied.html#more



1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).




121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary vs Romney - discuss with maps on: July 07, 2014, 03:43:09 pm
Barack Obama lost Indiana and Missouri by large margins in 2012 because he did not campaign there. The Senate seats of those two seats meant more to him that year than their electoral votes (a wise decision on the part of the President).  Those two states will be much closer in 2016 even if Hillary fails to win them.

Indiana becomes close for Democratic nominees only in nationwide wins.   
122  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kids raised by gay couples are better off than kids raised by everyone else on: July 07, 2014, 07:36:43 am
Divorce does the greatest harm to kids.

Stable families are the ideal. Once a child becomes a part of a divorce, that child becomes vulnerable to much of the pathology of single-parenthood. Of course there may have been damage before the divorce.

I wouldn't envy a child of economic privilege who becomes a victim of parental divorce. The child might learn to play off one parent against the other, a situation good for material indulgence but disastrous for character.
123  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cool chart showing the changing US murder rate over time on: July 05, 2014, 10:35:15 pm
Still way to go to reach 1900 levels again (and therefore European levels).
The 1900 stats are very dubious. Crime reporting wasn't all that consistent in theold days. If a black person was murdered, or lynched, local enforcement didn't always take it seriously. Also, denying that there is a racial element to the high American murder rate is rather counter-productive to anybody who sincerely cares about murders as a real problem. Oddly enough, it's also something only white people do. Black people, the overwhelming majority of whom are not murderers, of course, do not kid themselves about the problems in their communities. They know better than anybody what's going on.
Also, part of the drop in recent years is about improvements in medical treatment. It's only a murder if the victim dies. Trauma units can do amazing things today, and you see a similar reduction in deaths from motor vehicle accidents.

Don't forget Kevlar, the polymer behind -- or creating, more specifically - the bullet-proof vests that many police officers now wear. Crooks used to be able to shoot a cop in the lungs, heart, or abdomen  and leave a cop to die. Now the crook shoots at the cop's chest, and the cop shoots back at the would-be cop-killer who then dies -- or tries to shoot at the cop's head, which is still a fatal shot, but such requires that the crook take a more time-consuming aim than the cop, who then plugs the crook; this turns would-be cop-killing into suicide by cop.

As for deaths from motor vehicle collisions -- drunk or drugged driving is now prosecuted more automatically and at a lower threshold. Due to the building of expressways, vehicle collisions are less common and less severe. The head-on collisions that killed so many people on two-lane blacktops are becoming less frequent. Even the older state highways are being re-engineered with turn lanes that reduce rear-end collisions that can also kill. Collapsible steering wheels greatly reduce deaths from impalement of drivers. Seat belts are common and seat-belt laws are rigidly enforced. Child safety seats are the norm.  

As for law enforcement in the late 1900s -- it was far easier to get away with murder. Arsenic "inheritance powder" poisoning was much like cholera in effect... but today, arsenic residues in a corpse or even ashes give cause for investigation.    
124  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is the rural Midwest "easier" to live in than the rural/suburban South? on: July 04, 2014, 05:38:16 pm
Many rural counties of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern Maine are awful. Although the urban areas of California are good, the Central Valley except in the I-80 corridor is a poor place to get a start.

Rural areas have lower costs of living. They also have more farm laborers whose kids generally do badly in school, especially if migrant. Farm families do about as well as their urban counterparts.  But remember -- farm and ranch families are generally middle-class. I figure that farm families are able to control what their kids get access to.

Southern cities, with few exceptions, are awful places in which to live. They get large numbers of people leaving rural Southern towns and collect people who came in with no advantages. Texas and Florida (if you call them Southern) don't do so badly. But those cities  (like Dallas, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Miami, and Tampa-St. Pete) do OK. Georgia does have Atlanta, which apparently does OK. They can attract people from the Midwest.      

The rural South has little to attract anyone from elsewhere. It is a cultural void; it has few recreational activities.  
  
125  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Surnames and voting on: July 04, 2014, 05:22:45 pm
How about a hitting a home run?

Bonds* 6302 D 2013 R
Aaron 6173 D 2059 R
Ruth 5100 D 4926 R

Pretty even.

Mays 18256 D 9467 R
Rodriguez* 334417 D 81010 R
Griffey 997 1021 R

Pretty even.

Thome 938 D 1159 R
Sosa* 13973 D 3563 R
Robinson 284505 D 111285 D
McGwire* (enough home runs, but not enough people).
Killebrew 1185 D 945 D
Palmeiro* (enough home runs, but not enough people).
Jackson 353399 D 126270 R
Ramirez* 127331 D 40411 R
Schmidt 45531 D 60131 R
Mantle 398 D 462 R
Foxx 1549 D 721 R



Top 17. Best of our time:

Cabrera 22215 D 6643 R


*Numbers may be inflated by chemicals. Not voters -- home runs, that is.  
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