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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 26, 2014, 11:23:13 pm
August 22-24, 2014
Survey of 915 Iowa voters

Iowa Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
40%
Approve
..........................................................
53%
Disapprove
......................................................
7%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_826930.pdf
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McConnell describes the horror that will ensue if the GOP takes the Senate on: August 26, 2014, 07:26:57 pm
Looking forward to it.

Only a blooming idiot would relish a shutdown, regardless of ideology.

I wonder about some Republican elected officials in Congress. In fact I wonder about many of them.
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: I just got polled -- by a push pollster! on: August 26, 2014, 07:25:17 pm
Legitimate polls are one thing. Push polls are another -- loaded questions and false dichotomies.

Marist, PPP, Quinnipiac, Selzer, and perhaps Rasmussen (I am not familiar with the 'new' Rasmussen) are OK. A pollster that does not identify itself  is suspect. 
104  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 26, 2014, 07:08:01 pm
Indiana and Wisconsin could be next. Opponents of SSM have been taking a rhetorical beating in the 7th Circuit Court.


Quote
CHICAGO (AP) — Federal appeals judges bristled on Tuesday at arguments defending gay marriage bans in Indiana and Wisconsin, with one Republican appointee comparing them to now-defunct laws that once outlawed weddings between blacks and whites.

As the legal skirmish in the United States over same-sex marriage shifted to the three-judge panel of the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, more than 200 people lined up hours before to ensure they got a seat at the much-anticipated hearing.

....

(re an amendment in the Wisconsin state Constitution):

Richard Posner, who was appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1981, hit the backers of the ban the hardest. He balked when Wisconsin Assistant Attorney General Timothy Samuelson repeatedly pointed to "tradition" as the underlying justification for barring gay marriage.

"It was tradition to not allow blacks and whites to marry — a tradition that got swept away," the 75-year-old judge said. Prohibition of same sex marriage, Posner to the Wisconsin attorney, derives from "a tradition of hate ... and savage discrimination" of homosexuals.

(re a simpler state law in Indiana):

Posner... frequently cut off Indiana Solicitor General Thomas Fisher, just moments into his presentation and chided him to answer his questions.

At one point, Posner ran through a list of psychological strains of unmarried same-sex couples, including their children having to struggle to grasp why their schoolmates' parents were married and theirs weren't.

"What horrible stuff," Posner said. What benefits to society in barring gay marriage, he asked, outweighs that kind of harm to children?

(to proponents of SSM):

Would they argue in favor of polygamy on similar grounds, pointing to the emotional toll on children in families with multiple mothers or fathers, asked Judge David Hamilton, a President Barack Obama appointee.

Response:

"If you have two people, it's going to look like a marriage," said Kenneth Falk of the American Civil Liberties Union of Indiana. "If you have three or four, it doesn't. ... There's no slippery slope."

(This is much citation, but much is of citations or near-citations of persons arguing a case at law).

105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Would Obama win a third term? on: August 26, 2014, 03:45:32 pm
He's a shrewd a campaigner as any that we have seen since FDR.  He could turn an approval rating in the 43% area into 50% of the vote, which would win. He would run against an unpopular Congress.

Obviously he is doing nothing to shore up his approval ratings in an attempt at an impossible third term.

Obviously the 22nd Amendment is not going to be altered until someone the Republicans can tamper with the electoral process and the President is in fact a dictator with a huge personality cult on the assumption that two terms are not enough for such a glorious leader  against whom any dissent is treasonable.   
106  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 26, 2014, 01:23:11 pm
So post your latest map then.

Just the most recent one. In most non-SSM states some political figure has effective veto power until the Supreme Court decides or that a State adopts SSM through initiative or referendum, the politician exercising the effective veto is defeated in an election.

Barring a decision of the US Supreme Court, I expect few changes before at least November.





For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:



Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.

107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / I just got polled -- by a push pollster! on: August 25, 2014, 02:00:44 pm
I suggest this thread for people who have received a push poll for a Senate campaign. The voice asked me if I was more concerned with constraining the budget or with issues of "family values". After I made a choice (in favor of a balanced budget, which I find less troublesome and more easily attainable with a strong economy) the voice suggested that one of the two running for Senate in my State would be for balancing the federal budget. Then I was asked whether that knowing this would make me more likely  to vote for the candidate.

Purpose of this thread: to warn people of cr@ppy polls before the results are released.

Terry Lynn Land, R- US Senate. The pollster did not identify itself.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary? on: August 24, 2014, 08:36:27 pm
A majority of Americans are becoming hawks -- about ISIS.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The surprises of the Gubernatorial elections... on: August 24, 2014, 07:59:34 pm
Brownback, Scott,  Snyder, and Walker lose.
110  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of the Church of Satan on: August 24, 2014, 07:57:28 pm
Scum -- if they really 'love' an entity that has nothing to offer but shame, disgrace, and ruin.

Come to think of it, the Devil would be the perfect character of a drama. After all, he has been in all sorts of places. He isn't afraid of any prison, torture chamber, battlefield, or fire. He can travel in all circles -- from a drug den to an executive suite. "My" devil would shape-shift -- changing gender, ethnicity, apparent age, politics, attire, grooming habits, religion, or social position.
111  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Gallup: Plurality of Americans skeptical about evolution on: August 24, 2014, 07:41:20 pm
42% of Americans believe essentially in young-earth creationism. It's no wonder that we are losing ground to other countries.

If one wants to put God in the universe, then talk about His Presence in establishing mathematical and physical laws. Change either the Periodic Law of the elements or the binding curve of nuclear energy, and everything goes awry. Allow 4 electrons in the s shell of the atom, and hydrogen is no longer a gas. Make calcium the low point of the binding curve of energy and we lack enough iron for hemoglobin, let alone copper for certain technologies essential to civilization. Make zirconium the low point of the binding curve of energy and we have much suffocating krypton in the lower atmosphere of a planet.  Make the carbon atom too large, and respiration becomes difficult because carbon dioxide forms a glassy solid instead of a mobile gas. 
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How horrible would Gov. Perry do? on: August 24, 2014, 01:33:47 pm
Just for fun: Let Perry take his own state (Texas) and 47 other electoral votes, which is how Goldwater did in 1964:



(Clinton wins NE-02 and perhaps NE-01).

113  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What's the Matter with Kansas? on: August 24, 2014, 01:16:16 pm
What kind of independent campaign is Greg Orman running?

Is he trying to be a "Pat Roberts isn't conservative enough" kind of independent, or a Moderate Hero/"Let's stop the polarization and find innovative solutions"/Eliot Cutler/Angus King kind of independent?

Definitely the latter.

This. Plus Hillary's only polling in the high 30s to low 40's. Her ceiling isn't much higher than Obama's in the last two elections.

The unpopularity of Brownback and Roberts do not show Republicans vulnerable in the 2016 Presidential election -- yet.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP-Kansas: Hillary trails by 1-5% against GOP gang of five on: August 24, 2014, 08:32:41 am
These polls should not be taken seriously in the next few months, because they are of 2014 likely voters.

Ignore them until November, when PPP switches to registered voters again.

This is a good point for PPP. I'm not sure if the other pollsters will deviate from their 2014 likely voter sample when asking the 2016 questions.

When SurveyUSA for example polls a state, they always screen for adults, RV and LV.

They use the bigger RV sample for 2016 stuff and their smaller LV sample for 2014 stuff.

I wish PPP would do the same, because it's stupid to poll 2014 LV for their 2016 preference, when 2014 LV only make up half of the potential 2016 electorate.

In the case of KS, a 2014 LV model would produce a skewed Dem-leaning 2016 picture, because of more Browncrook-hating Indies turning out in November. In 2016, the Indies will then be much more GOP-leaning.

Please! Let's not distort names.

I'm not going to accuse Governor Brownback of corruption until someone can pin something on him other than extremism or incompetence that makes him a bad governor. See also LePage in Maine. As in other states, the GOP has effectively purged out the moderates, and those disgruntled with the Party that 'left them' might first hold their nose while voting for the candidates of the Party that they used to think irrelevant.  They say afterwards with some sobbing, "I just could not vote for the nominee of the Party that I still have ties to".

For decades the Democratic Party was all but irrelevant in Kansas, the real electoral action happening in the Republican primary in a contest between GOP moderates and GOP right-wingers. The moderates have to go somewhere. Voting for a Party that has images of FDR and JFK isn't so much a shock to a Kansas moderate as voting for a Party that has an image of the arch-enemy of the "War of Northern Aggression" to a southern racist Democrat in the South.   
115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who do you think is more strongly disliked in Kansas? on: August 24, 2014, 08:17:52 am
Black President + lots of angry rural whites = no contest, Obama.

Race baiting at its finest

Of course GOP leadership and such 'intellectual' leaders of right-wing America like Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, Savage, etc. wouldn't stoop so low as to dredge up old ethnic resentments?

"Nice kitty, wouldn't hurt a mouse!"
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can a democrat win the election electorally without winning the popular vote? on: August 24, 2014, 08:11:18 am
This is what a bare Obama victory in the Electoral College would have looked like in 2008 or 2012:



Just after the Republican Convention, this is how Obama could have won the election despite losing 49-50. The assumption was that he would barely win some states (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Mexico) that he eventually won by blowout margins and while practically nobody was polling California.  As I recall from watching 2008 coverage of the Presidential election on NBC News, after Ohio had been called for Obama, he would not be assigned any other win except for Iowa -- until the results started to come in from the West Coast. The commentator said that the raw vote totals for McCain and Obama were very close but would not remain so close once the vote totals came in from California.

Obama won the states that he won by smaller (if impressive) margins than those in which he lost. He was getting McGovern/Mondale-like results in a bunch of states.    

This is what a bare (Hillary) Clinton win looks like in 2016:



or



Either way, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia are close, but she does not win all three of them. She loses a raft of state by huge margins and barely wins those states that she does win.



117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What's the Matter with Kansas? on: August 24, 2014, 07:51:46 am
Post #10K!

States can shift from D to R or vice-versa as the great political concerns of the majority change. Consider both Virginia and West Virginia in recent years. It used to be that Virginia went for a Republican nominee for President in all but blowout wins for a Democrat, at least since 1948.  Virginia went for Nixon in 1960; it was the only non-former Confederate state to reject Jimmy Carter in 1976; it never voted for Bill Clinton despite Clinton winning 370-some electoral votes twice. But it went for Barack Obama in  2008 and 2012. Its politics became increasingly non-Southern as it became more industrial and commercial. It became more like Ohio and less like Alabama. In contrast, West Virginia used to be one of the states least likely to go for a Republican nominee, perhaps because of strong and politically-active unions in the mining and heavy industry that dominated the economy. As miners and workers in heavy industry lost their jobs, the cultural conservatism of West Virginia came to dominate politics. West Virginia could vote for Bill Clinton, who was a good match for West Virginia.

Kansas is traditionally one of the most R states in the Union. It has voted for a Democratic nominee for President only three times in the last century -- FDR in 1932 and 1936, and LBJ in his 1964 blowout. Kansas politics typically had their contests between 'moderate' and 'reactionary' Republicans.  Whoever won the Republican primary was going to win a statewide race.  What has changed is that the Republican Party has all but purged the moderate wing of the GOP out of the Republican Party. For those the tiny Democratic Party is available.

'The matter with Kansas' is that it long did not need a Democratic Party. Now it does. Kansas is not a Southern state. Its demographics are closer to those of Iowa, a state in which Democrats usually win the state's electoral votes, than to Missouri. Ranch and oil interests are probably stronger in Kansas than in Iowa (think of how right-wing eastern Colorado and eastern new Mexico are) but not as dominant as in Oklahoma or Texas. Kansas does much better than Southern states in formal education, and it is not as blatant a hotbed for fundamentalist Christianity as is its neighbor Missouri. 

The Hard Right took over the GOP in Kansas and has governed as it promised. It has shown itself insensitive and incompetent. For those who dislike that, Kansas voters can now vote like Iowa voters. 

   
118  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of Yazidi on: August 23, 2014, 09:23:29 pm
Considering what is happening to them, they eminently merit sympathy. 
119  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Which denomination best fits me? on: August 23, 2014, 09:20:24 pm
Judaism -- but I'm not Jewish. About the only connection that I have to Judaism is a German-sounding surname. 
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 23, 2014, 08:58:04 pm
So far as I can tell he has no chance of ending up in prison.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Scott Walker still run in 2016 if he loses in 2014? on: August 23, 2014, 12:33:07 pm
He has big problems awaiting him:

Quote
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin played a greater role than previously known in arranging for wealthy contributors to donate to a powerful conservative organization in his home state as it battled a two-year campaign to recall Mr. Walker and Republican lawmakers, according to court documents released Friday.

The documents — part of a long-running investigation into whether Mr. Walker’s campaign improperly coordinated the spending of outside groups — include emails among Mr. Walker’s top aides that suggest a frenzy of fund-raising activity, including a trip to Las Vegas, to solicit unregulated contributions for the Wisconsin Club for Growth, a nonprofit conservative group, as it helped him in the successful effort to fight back recalls in 2011 and 2012.

He encouraged national contributors to funnel money through the shadowy but deeply Wisconsin chapter of the secretive, right-wing, richly-endowed Club for Growth:

Quote
“As the governor discussed ... he wants all the issue advocacy efforts run thru one group to ensure correct messaging,” Kate Doner, a fund-raising consultant for Mr. Walker, wrote to R. J. Johnson, the campaign consultant and a major adviser to the Club for Growth. “We had some past problems with multiple groups doing work on ‘behalf’ of Gov. Walker and it caused some issues.”
   
Ms. Doner also sent an email to Mr. Walker and top campaign aides in September 2011 with “quick thoughts on raising money for Walker’s possible recall efforts.” The email included this suggestion: “Take Koch’s money,” a reference to Charles G. and David H. Koch, the conservative industrialists and generous Republican donors. It also directed Mr. Walker to “get on a plane to Vegas and sit down with Sheldon Adelson,” the wealthy casino magnate and the single largest Republican donor in the last presidential campaign.

Of Mr. Adelson, it said, “Ask for $1m now.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/us/politics/emails-show-bigger-fund-raising-role-for-gov-scott-walker-of-wisconsin.html?_r=1



122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could a President Hillary have a Republican Congress for her entire Presidency? on: August 23, 2014, 12:26:04 pm
There will be plenty of R Senate seats in moderate-to-liberal states up for grabs in 2016. That could include Arizona and Iowa should Senators McCain and Grassley call it quits.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Scandal Returns...Alleged To Be Part Of 'Criminal Scheme' on: August 23, 2014, 12:22:18 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/us/politics/emails-show-bigger-fund-raising-role-for-gov-scott-walker-of-wisconsin.html?_r=0

Quote
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin played a greater role than previously known in arranging for wealthy contributors to donate to a powerful conservative organization in his home state as it battled a two-year campaign to recall Mr. Walker and Republican lawmakers, according to court documents released Friday.

The documents — part of a long-running investigation into whether Mr. Walker’s campaign improperly coordinated the spending of outside groups — include emails among Mr. Walker’s top aides that suggest a frenzy of fund-raising activity, including a trip to Las Vegas, to solicit unregulated contributions for the Wisconsin Club for Growth, a nonprofit conservative group, as it helped him in the successful effort to fight back recalls in 2011 and 2012.

Excited to see Walker, Perry and Christie up on that debate stage.

This is really, really bad. Sneaky funding through front groups is questionable at best. When the candidate seeks such funding, things are really bad.   
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Democrats be divided again at the 2016 DNC over Israel & Religion? on: August 23, 2014, 12:17:28 pm
Not likely. I expect American Jews to 100% anti-ISIS. 
125  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of the American Media? on: August 23, 2014, 08:42:33 am
News media now exist largely to satisfy audiences, and if such means slanting stories and adding touches of old-fashioned yellow journalism, such is what people want and get. Disinterested coverage is no longer good for attracting paying customers. Telling people that Barack Obama is the Antichrist is lucrative.
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