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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is the Republican's problem that they're too Southern? on: January 17, 2015, 12:40:26 am
Seems to turn off Northeast and West Coast voters.

What's worse, some regions of the South such as Northern Virginia and South Florida don't even share a southern culture anymore.

The focus has been on gay marriage lately and how it's wrecking the GOP with moderate voters, but maybe the bigger issue is the overall culture Republicans are perceived to have.

Same-sex marriage is dying as a political football. It's as much a political football with Michigan Republicans as it is with Texas Republicans. Republicans will have to move to economic issues and a chest-pumping foreign policy. 

Northern Virginia and South Florida (and to only a slightly-lesser extent much of North Carolina) are increasingly being 'settled' by Yankees who take their political culture with them.  PPP often shows this in some questions that ask about loyalties to sports teams -- and those loyalties are extremely strong. If you were a fan of the Detroit Tigers as a child, you are probably still a fan of the Motor City Kitties.  So if the people around Austin, Texas include lots of Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Tigers, Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies baseball fans, then the local politics are more likely to look like those of Des Moines than those of small towns maybe fifty miles away (where people are more likely to be Rangers or Astros fans).
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will Tennessee become competitive? on: January 17, 2015, 12:25:39 am
Suburbia is generally newer in the R states than in D states. The newer suburbs of the South and Southwest (as of Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Phoenix) have newer infrastructure that costs less to maintain than is the case in the older suburbs of most D states. Suburbs ten years old generally don't have large numbers of under-employed people in their twenties still living with their parents or under a heavy load of student debt.  Suburbs forty years old have them, and those kids generally have no cause to vote Republican.  Debtors tend toward the Left so that they can get debt relief from the inflationary tendencies of loose monetary and fiscal policy; creditors want their assets of others' debts to them to have real value and want labor cheap and the money supply rigidly constrained.

R states often have low levels of educational achievement, so student loans might not be such a political problem even in the suburbs.

But add to that - the newest suburbs tend to still have some rural feel  with low costs of infrastructure. Newer suburbs -- let us say those around Atlanta, Dallas, or Phoenix -- have yet to get large numbers of poor people. Their infrastructure is still fairly new and little the worse for wear.  The older suburbs have aging infrastructure in need of repair and higher taxes as a result. Many have seen their first wave of housing (post-WWII bungalows and ranches built for WWII veterans) demolished in favor of apartment complexes which crowd more people and cars into a city. Suburbs of Cleveland, Chicago, and even San Francisco are getting an increasingly urban feel, and voters show that. California started going reliably Democratic in Presidential elections as many of its suburbs lost all traces of rural character as the subdivisions reached age 30 or so in the 1990s.

So contrast Carrollton, Texas with Southfield, Michigan -- or even Hayward, California.  Carrollton was growing rapidly in the 1980s; Hayward was growing rapidly in the 1960s; Southfield was growing rapidly in the 1950s.  
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Florida in 2016 on: January 16, 2015, 11:28:07 pm
Sometime next week we will get a poll of theKeystone State from PPP. I can see the Democratic nominee for President  losing Pennsylvania only while getting 230 or fewer electoral votes.   
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: January 16, 2015, 11:21:44 pm
These three Democratic wins involve the "New South" -- the South between the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the completion of the success of the Southern Strategy. 

1992 is about as clearly a Realignment election as any in the lifetimes of any reader of these forums unless one is very old. Few saw 1992 coming, and the 1992 election looked very different from that of 1976.



It's not a perfect match (there was a third-party nominee getting lots of votes), but I am showing the one Carter win to the two (Bill) Clinton wins:

Ford, Bush, Dole -- blue
Carter, Clinton once -- pale blue
Carter, Clinton never -- yellow
Ford -- but Clinton twice -- white
Carter, Clinton twice -- red

...putting the states showing white for those that Carter did not win but Clinton won twice says much about subsequent Democratic wins of the Presidency; only one of the states in yellow has voted for any Democratic nominee for President since 1976. If Bill Clinton could not win Texas (Hope, Arkansas is not far from the Texas state line) maybe no Democrat can win it for the next thirty years; the state used to vote Democratic except in Democratic losses and even went for Humphrey in his 1968 loss.

States in pale blue are at best iffy for any Democratic nominee for President.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: January 16, 2015, 10:24:30 pm
Twelve of forty-eight states voted for the same party -- and they went Republican all four times. No state went Democratic all four times -- not even the two states that prevented 50-state landslides in 1972 (Massachusetts) and 1984 (Minnesota). Eisenhower won both states together twice, and no Republican nominee has ever won both states together. Nixon barely won Minnesota in 1972 and Reagan barely won Massachusetts in 1984.

Ike must have been an excellent match for some states that many of us consider very liberal.  

Adding to what you mention...

... (E)very Republican carried Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania when winning the presidency up to Dwight Eisenhower's re-election in 1956. These three states were among the six Teddy Roosevelt carried, as the Progressive Party's nominee, in 1912, as all his pickups came from the 1908 column of incumbent Republican William Howard Taft.

The Democrats now have their base where the Republicans used to have theirs. Dwight Eisenhower was the only Republican president during the Democratic presidential realigning period of 1932 to 1964. Bill Clinton was the only two-term Democratic president during the Republican presidential realigning period of 1968 to 2004 map. Eisenhower carried more than 80 percent of available states in both his elections. Clinton carried in the 60s percentile range of available states. The only states Clinton carried, at least once, which didn't end up in Eisenhower's column, at least once, were Clinton's home state Arkansas and Georgia.

All the states carried in the 1950s, at least once, by two-time losing Democrat Adlai Stevenson are right at home with today's Republicans. (Well, except for North Carolina and Georgia. Judging by their margins spread, from 2008 and 2012, it may now be that former bellwether Missouri is voting like Indiana.)



We are going to see that often. The 1976 election would have likely had a Democratic trifecta of Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania except for the Favorite Son effect in Michigan.  Carter still won -- barely. My next map will show a contrast between Carter and Clinton.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: January 16, 2015, 09:24:36 pm
Here's a blank map (intensity not blanked out) if you want to show the Congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, but not electoral votes.



Here's one for elections that don't involve individual districts of Maine and Nebraska.



Or Alaska, Hawaii, or DC not voting (elections under the 48-star flag):



Or so that I can be a smart-aleck, the 45-star flag that excludes the States admitted to the Union during the 20th century:

107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: History of the legalization of same-sex marriage in America on: January 16, 2015, 09:16:05 pm
A Supreme Court ruling holds that the comparatively few same-sex marriages performed in good faith in Michigan during the short span in which SSM was legal are valid, contrary to the wish of the state's Attorney General.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Shelly More Capito on: January 16, 2015, 09:07:23 pm
The WV trend toward the GOP isn't really because of abortion

Or other social/religious issues, for that matter.

Probably the weakening of the once-powerful United Mine Workers Union.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: January 16, 2015, 09:00:27 pm
Twelve of forty-eight states voted for the same party -- and they went Republican all four times. No state went Democratic all four times -- not even the two states that prevented 50-state landslides in 1972 (Massachusetts) and 1984 (Minnesota). Eisenhower won both states together twice, and no Republican nominee has ever won both states together. Nixon barely won Minnesota in 1972 and Reagan barely won Massachusetts in 1984.

Ike must have been an excellent match for some states that many of us consider very liberal.  
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Here we can contrast elections on: January 16, 2015, 08:52:15 pm
I suggest this thread for contrasting elections or sets of elections. We can show, for example, how states trend. In this case I suggest that  even if the partisan identities of the states are almost opposite in the elections involving Eisenhower and Obama, the blocks of states involved suggest that Ike and Obama got (and lost) many of the key constituencies in their elections. This, if you are aware of my posting history, is one of my favorite contrasts.

..........................

When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.

The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.


 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

   
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Florida in 2016 on: January 16, 2015, 08:35:41 pm
Much of the Hispanic population in Florida is not Cuban. Even among Cuban-American voters in Florida, those associated with the Mariel boat-lift (especially Afro-Cubans) have no political affinity for the earlier, heavily-right-wing wave of Cuban immigrants who fled Castro. 
112  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: January 16, 2015, 05:21:50 pm
Meeting behind closed doors on Friday, the nine justices decided to review a 2-1 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit that upheld bans on same-sex marriage in Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky and Tennessee. The decision by two judges on the Cincinnati-based court, both appointed by President George W. Bush, marked the first time a federal appeals court backed a same-sex marriage ban after other appellate courts had found similar bans unconstitutional. That split among the circuit courts likely drove the justices to pick up the case.

The Supreme Court will hear arguments and probably rule by June.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/16/supreme-court-gay-marriage_n_6439926.html
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Democracy Corps/WVWVAF: Hillary up 6 vs. Romney, up 12 vs. Bush on: January 16, 2015, 04:33:52 pm
Strong enough -- but this sounds like a biased pollster.  
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Romney even have a chance this time? on: January 16, 2015, 02:59:14 pm
Marco Rubio is strong?

If Marco Rubio is a strong Presidential candidate, then alligators are vegetarians.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which will be a higher number? on: January 16, 2015, 02:56:38 pm
If you count the journalists as audience, there will be a bigger audience than the circus.
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Joni Ernst to deliver SOTU response on: January 16, 2015, 01:12:02 am
We can also find out whether she makes sense at all. My first impression is of a new Sarah Palin.

"We'll make 'em squeal!"
117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Joni Ernst to deliver SOTU response on: January 15, 2015, 08:34:59 pm
Underestimate her at your risk. She is a very good talker.

Did you watch her victory speech in November?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/midterm-elections-2014-joni-ernst-delivers-victory-speech-26695238

She is a good talker. So was Eva Peron.


She's a hack
118  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: January 15, 2015, 07:46:43 pm
Michigan -- same-sex marriage is recognized, but with a catch:

Quote
Three hundred Michigan same-sex couples have a “fundamental right” for their marriages to be legal, a federal judge ruled after the state refused to recognize the unions. ... U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith on Thursday ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, eight same-sex couples, in Caspar v. Snyder, saying Michigan's refusal to validate their marriages was unconstitutional.

Those 16 individuals and about 600 more were married in March when Michigan’s gay marriage ban was struck down. For one day, several county clerks were able to issue licenses to same-sex couples and perform wedding ceremonies before an appeals court stayed the ruling.

“The same-sex couples who married in Michigan during the brief period when such marriages were authorized acquired a status that state officials may not ignore absent some compelling interest -- a constitutional hurdle that the defense does not even attempt to surmount,” Goldsmith wrote in his decision. “In these circumstances, what the state has joined together, it may not put asunder.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/15/michigan-recognize-gay-marriage_n_6479500.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

Only during a narrowly-opened window of opportunity before an appellate court denied further marriages. No further same-sex marriages need be permitted under this ruling.

A federal judge just nullified one of the most egregious denials of marital rights in one state.

 
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN: RNC set to open 7/18/2016. on: January 15, 2015, 10:35:17 am
People can still protest. I might be there, and that would be new for me. There will be plenty of GOP ideology to protest. I am even thinking of some placards...   
120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 14, 2015, 06:56:33 pm
High enough for decisive re-election. Except for the 22nd Amendment, of course.
121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 14, 2015, 01:14:02 pm
President Obama's overall job approval rating has risen seven points since last October, although it still remains below 50 percent. Forty-six percent of Americans now approve of the job the president is doing, while just as many disapprove. His approval rating is now at the level it was a year ago.

The bump up in his approval comes largely from his own party and independents. Forty-five percent of independents now approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing, up 11 points from October.

At the start of his seventh year in office and heading into this year's State of the Union address, President Obama's 46 percent approval rating is higher than that of his immediate predecessor, President George W. Bush (28 percent), at a similar point in his presidency. However, Mr. Obama's rating is lower than both Presidents Ronald Reagan (52 percent) and Bill

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obamas-approval-rating-ticks-up-in-2015/

Even at 46%.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: January 14, 2015, 01:46:29 am
I am bringing back this material on a State that rarely gets polled -- Indiana:



Indiana usually says something; it is about 10% more R than the rest of America in almost every Presidential election. Barack Obama campaigned heavily in Indiana and sank vast resources into the state to win it in 2008 and did not do so in 2012. He lost it by 10% in 2012 -- which should be a huge disappointment. Right?

Year     margin   

2012       10R
2008         1D

2004       21R
2000       16R
1996         6R*
1992         6R*

1988       20R
1984       24R
1980       18R*

1976         8R
1972       33R
1968       12R*

1964       12D
1960       10R
1956       20R
1952       17R

1948         1R
1944         7R
1940         1R


*Independent or third-party nominee may have had an effect. Bold is for the Democratic nominee winning the state. Bold indicates that the Democratic nominee won the state. Dark shades indicate electoral blowouts. Red -- the Democrat won the Presidential election in electoral and popular votes. Blue -- the Republican won the Presidential election in electoral and popular votes. Purple -- split on electoral and popular votes.

Wrong. Barack Obama campaigned extensively in Indiana in 2008 and won it -- and was effective enough in winning a raft of states that neither Gore nor Kerry won. He stayed out of Indiana in 2012 and lost it because he needed a laser focus on a small number of states that could decide the election. If he was going to win Indiana he was going to win Ohio anyway, but Ohio was easier for him to win against an opponent who could have overpowered him with campaign funds.   

Indiana has gone for the Republican nominee for President in 18 of the last 20 chances. This goes back to two elections involving FDR. Democratic nominees have won the popular vote 9 times and the Presidency 8 times -- and Republican nominees have won the popular vote 11 times and the Presidency 12 times.

The Republicans seem unable to win the Presidency if the Democrat loses the state by less than 11%. If Indiana votes by more than 11% for the Republican, then the Republican wins at the least the Electoral College (which is everything).

If you see the Republican nominee winning Indiana early in 2016 on Election Day but by a comparatively-small margin (let us say 7%), then it will be a bad night for the GOP.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: January 14, 2015, 01:29:17 am
PPP will be polling the state in which Erie is in the northwestern corner (so written so that I can avoid excessive alliteration).

Yes, it's Pennsylvania. Plenty to poll. First of 2015, fifth state after the 2014 election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/01/pennsylvania-question-suggestions.html#comments
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee slams Obama for letting daughters listen to Beyonce on: January 14, 2015, 01:19:39 am
Beyonce is supremely talented. She's also from a state that borders yours, Mr. Huckabee.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TNR: The case for Tom Cotton in 2016 on: January 14, 2015, 01:17:40 am
New, young, and from a State that now matters little in a Presidential election. Bill Clinton is the last President from Arkansas for a very long time.
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