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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 06, 2014, 09:06:22 am
Arkansas now seems to be a quixotic quest for 2016 for Hillary, according to PPP:

Bush 46%
Clinton 41%

Christie 42%
Clinton 41%

Cruz 46%
Clinton 42%

Huckabee 55%
Clinton 39%


Paul 45%
Clinton 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_806513.pdf

Q fills some holes for New Jersey:

50% Clinton
42% Christie

54% Clinton
34% Bush

55% Clinton
35% Paul

57% Clinton
34% Huckabee


From July 31 - August 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,148 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2068  



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


102  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Best GOP Almost-President: Thomas Dewey or Bob Dole on: August 05, 2014, 09:21:08 pm
Dole. Clearly past prime in 1996, essentially shut out by Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and the elder Bush. He might have been a better President than any of them. Of course,  I can think of some Republicans who would have been better than Dubya as President. Flawed? Sure. Aren't they all?

The characterizations of Dewey look so contrary in effectiveness and objectionability. There was a politician like that -- Richard Nixon.   
103  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 05, 2014, 09:12:24 pm
Left-wingers have a long history of committing political atrocities that have resulted in the deaths of thousands to millions; from the Reign of Terror all the way up to the Cambodian Genocide.

Communism as a murderous ideology is also a dying ideology.

The Atlantic slave trade and the mistreatment of First Peoples of the Americas both killed millions -- and we hardly see those as a current threat of mass death. Christians are culpable for the Crusades, witch hunts, and the Inquisition. No Christian organization now endorses those.

Quote
You'll never hear about that from the left-wing, globalist mass media; though. Instead, they use a handful of isolated incidents (many of which have a high possibility of being false flag attacks) to make the claim that ''all right-wingers are potential terrorists'' while at the same time pretending that left-wingers never commit violent acts themselves.

Extreme leftists have become irrelevant as genuine threats of mass murder.  Organized crime, which is difficult to place on the left-right continuum, is now far more likely to cause death than extreme leftists in America. Bloods? Crips? MS-13? Much more dangerous than old left-wing phantoms.   

Quote
Before you hit me with the usual response that I'm a crazy, extreme right-wing conspiracy theorist who needs to take his meds; take a look at Hal Turner. He's proof that the feds do, in fact, set people up to play the role of their political opponents and act aggressively so they can justify making moves against them. They even encouraged him to use violent rhetoric.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner#FBI_Informant

Hal Turner is a piece of work. Agents-provocateurs are untrustworthy as a rule. 
104  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 05, 2014, 08:35:45 pm
Quote

Alaska Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
35%
Approve
..........................................................
58%
Disapprove
......................................................
8%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_8051205.pdf

August 1-3, 2014
Survey of 1,066 Arkansas voters

Arkansas Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
33%
Approve
..........................................................
62%
Disapprove
......................................................
5%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_8051118.pdf





60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)











105  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Google 'reveals user' over Gmail child abuse images on: August 05, 2014, 08:05:18 pm
Tough luck to the perp.

I have no desire or tolerance for criminal images. One takes full consequences for broadcasting oneself committing an illegal act because the act is itself illegal.

106  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Citing Israel, GOP eyes Jewish vote on: August 05, 2014, 07:53:18 pm
The Evangelical right scares the crap out of both American and Israeli Jews. It's been made very clear they want preserve Israel for Armageddon and convert them.

While they accept their support, they're not keen on the right being at the controls necessarily.

The Jewish people are not single issue voters, and even if they were, a lot of Democrats support Israel anyway.

Speaking as someone who actually is Jewish, I can confirm both of these, especially what King said.  I would add two other things, however:

1) Both Judaism and Jewish culture place an extremely high value upon social justice while the Republican Party is filled with folks like Glenn Beck who are running around screaming that social justice is somehow a code word for eugenics and/or Nazism.

2) Jewish culture places an incredibly high value upon education.  I am far from the only Jewish voter who believes that the Republicans have become a fundamentally anti-intellectual party.  Beyond which, that whole "Yee-haw, look it here!  I can't speak the English right and got me that there ten-gallon hat and some of them cowboy boots 'yall " schtick that a lot of Southern Republicans have is absolutely repulsive to most Jewish voters.  Until they can fix that, the Republican Party will have (practically no)  luck reaching out to non-Orthodox Jewish.

About what I thought. Even if I am not Jewish (nearly half-English/Welsh/Scots-Irish and nearly half German or Swiss), I vote much the same way as Jews because I value education and social justice.

I don't know about the ten-gallon hat stuff, as there are Texas Jews who affect a ten-gallon hat (but draw the line at assimilating the bad grammar). 

With their anti-intellectualism, Republicans are also having trouble with Asians (south, south-east, and east) who have similar reputations for respect for intellectual achievement. Lots of Hispanics, too.
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 05, 2014, 05:57:22 pm

Alaska Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
35%
Approve
..........................................................
58%
Disapprove
......................................................
8%
Not sure
..........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_8051205.pdf




60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)












[/quote]
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47% on: August 05, 2014, 05:48:49 pm
Technically, if it it is "too good to be true" it is almost certainly neither good nor true.
109  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Happy 53rd Birthday President Obama! on: August 04, 2014, 07:16:40 pm


No. But I am not with the Hague tribunal!
110  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 04, 2014, 07:13:57 pm
From Wikipedia:

Quote
On May 30, 2009, Raul Flores, Jr., 29, and his daughter, Brisenia Ylianna Flores, 9, of Arivaca, Arizona, were murdered at home during a robbery by Shawna Forde, Jason Eugene Bush, and Albert Gaxiola, who were convicted of the murders.

Both Raul Flores and his daughter, Brisenia, were born in the United States and were thus American citizens as is Gina Gonzalez, the victims' wife and mother who survived the attack.

Brisenia was a third-grade student at the Sopori Elementary School in Amado, Arizona at the time of her death.

During the trial, jurors were told that Forde and her accomplices gained entry to the Flores home by claiming they were officials looking for fugitives and that the suspects had the expectation of finding money and drugs that could be sold to finance Forde's group, the Minutemen American Defense, which patrolled Arizona's border with Mexico. When they found no drugs, the intruders took jewelry but, prosecutors said, not before fatally shooting the child and her father.

Gina Marie Gonzalez, 31, wife of Raul Flores and mother of Brisenia, in the home during the attack was shot three times. She survived because she pretended to be dead. Gonzalez called 911 emergency services when the assailants left the home. While Gonzalez was on the phone, the assailants re-entered the home; Gonzalez fired her husband's handgun, wounding Bush. Gonzalez identified two men, one white, the other Latino, and a white woman as the attackers. Gonzales said Bush, who is white, had murdered her daughter and husband.

An early exchange within the 911 call was recorded as follows:

    Gonzalez: "They shot me and I pretended like I was dead. My daughter was crying. They shot her, too.
    Operator: "Are they still there, the people who, that shot them?"
    Gonzalez: "They're coming back in! They're coming back in!" (Gunfire.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawna_Forde
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's Southern Ceiling on: August 04, 2014, 07:00:46 pm



Here's how I think they fall

States that Hillary Clinton really can't lose in a win     247 EV
248-263
Virginia, likely tipping-point state, 264-276
277-347
348-391
392-455
456-493, Texas


Others -- forget about it. In gray.


Nebraska districts:

2nd, "A" -- 391
1st, "B" -- 421
3rd, "C" -- 538 
 
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Gravis: Tie in Wisconsin on: August 04, 2014, 04:00:19 pm
If the election looks close in August in a heavily-unionized state, the Democrat usually wins.

Wisconsin unions will be out for bear -- excuse me, elephant -- in Wisconsin as in Michigan this fall.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Clinton beats Christie by 21 on: August 04, 2014, 07:34:07 am
Romney was slightly ahead in Florida until the last few days -- when his campaign offered the infamous Spanish-language ad that tried to connect Barack Obama to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.  
114  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 04, 2014, 05:29:59 am
The "sovereign citizens" are from American culture. To become a "sovereign citizen" one must simply intensify the belief in certain threads of American culture. Then one can have a distorted view of American history and adopt an extremist ideology and a proclivity for violence as one is brainwashed.

No. "Sovereign citizens" isn't an issue only in USA. It is an issue in other countries.

The reference is to the United States.
115  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How the Democratic Party became a tool for Wall-Street on: August 04, 2014, 05:24:53 am
The conspiracy is not the success of commercial enterprise or the material wealth and intellectual property it generates. The conspiracy is incompetent politicians and ignominious bureaucrats who take the citizens money and make it disappear.

I'm not sure how anarchy solves any problems.

Normal business has constraints. Raw deals, no matter how initially lucrative for a devious or corrupt operator, fail. The business that hurts its customers typically sets up its own ruin. I have seen people argue that Wal*Mart, which has sought to undercut its competitors by importing instead of buying American-made stuff, has done great harm to American blue-collar workers that were its core of customers. Wal*Mart isn't a particularly corrupt or devious operator. Wal*Mart now faces a saturated market. It is no longer a growth investment.

Political corruption creates its own problems. The people who do corruption are typically above average in income, so graft ordinarily intensifies the concentration of wealth and income. To be sure, the grafter almost invariably spends what he gets  dishonestly, but such might not always be the case (the grafter sends the corrupt gain to a foreign bank account) ; what the grafter buys could easily be luxury imports that mess up the balance of trade. Consider the Marcos family when it ruled the Philippines; it bled the country and spent heavily on its own indulgence, often in imported luxuries (like Imelda's collection of shoes). If the workers and peasants of the country had gotten a fair share they might have eaten better and been able to wear shoes.

Entities profiteering from corruption are likely to fund the corrupt pols who create the dishonest gain.   Such money finds its way back into the economy -- in an objectionable way for an objectionable purpose.

Money may be transferred from where it does good to where it does no good, but it is unlikely to be destroyed as a reality (barring an effort to destroy currency that might otherwise feed an inflationary tendency). Governments typically replaced damaged currency.
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 04, 2014, 02:34:34 am
The "sovereign citizens" are from American culture. To become a "sovereign citizen" one must simply intensify the belief in certain threads of American culture. Then one can have a distorted view of American history and adopt an extremist ideology and a proclivity for violence as one is brainwashed.

To be an Islamic extremist one must first be a Muslim. For most Americans such requires a conversion, hardly an easy one if one has a strong tie to any non-Muslim culture, in itself, and then be attracted to thuggery that has a veneer of Islam.

The conversion from "decent person" to "terrorist" is more difficult than a religious conversion.

OK, we are not out of danger if the threat from "sovereign citizens" subsides. Extreme ideologues which Eric Hoffer called True Believers may find themselves disillusioned with a cause after some ruin of the cause or being on the wrong side of some in-fighting, only to find a vacuum to be filled only by another extremist cause. Many fascists and Nazis were renegade socialists and communists. After World War II, rank-and-file members of the fascistic Iron Guard of Romania and the Arrow Cross of Hungary discovered that their proclivity for dirty work made them just the people to do the dirty work for what were recently-tiny Communist Parties. Low-level Nazis were easy marks for Communist brainwashing in the Soviet zone of occupation -- far easier than liberals and democratic socialists. Some Nazis found that their hatred for Jews and Judaism as well as their technical skills could serve Islamic countries hostile to the "Zionist entity".       
117  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 4th Circuit Court confirms VA decision in favor of SSM on: August 03, 2014, 06:58:02 pm
So we've got the following courts of appeals hearing arguments in the near future:

6th Circuit- August 6

7th Circuit- August 26

9th Circuit- September 8

That means decisions in each of those courts ~3 months later. That just leaves us waiting on the 5th, 8th and 11th Circuits. We should at least get the 5th Circuit decision by the end of the year. At that point there won't be much left for the Supreme Court to wait around for.



States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:



I do not know the status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, Guam, or the Northern Marianas.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state will be closer? on: August 03, 2014, 08:45:56 am
Florida hasn't given any Democrat anything more than a bare margin of victory since 1948, a year in which the Dewey and Thurmond candidacies split the right-leaning vote in Florida.  It has given Republicans huge margins of victory.

The state barely went for LBJ in 1964, dammit! 
119  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 03, 2014, 08:41:22 am
But why bring it up? You said SSM states would no longer count in your maps.

I brought it up as an illustration of why approval for SSM need not be shown in states that have legalized it.

It illustrates why approval of SSM in a State that already has it does not belong on the map, and why I did not show it on the map. It is enough that SSM is legal in Massachusetts.

Once entrenched in law, SSM is unlikely to go away.  Of course if there were some legislative attempt or a referendum to abolish SSM, then approval would become relevant again. I do not see that happening in any state with SSM.

Approval is relevant in states in which SSM is not yet fully legal. The map suggests that SSM has more ways in which it can be legalized in such a state as Colorado than in neighboring Wyoming. In Colorado, means of legalizing SSM would seem to include a referendum (it would likely pass), legislative action, refusal of the Governor to appeal, or a definitive decision of the court that denies all appeals. In Wyoming such would take a huge change in public opinion before any method other than a definitive decision beyond any appeal.

Of course the 10th Circuit can establish the law for Colorado and Wyoming simultaneously. Likewise, the legal status of SSM could be decided simultaneously in such disparate states as Michigan and Tennessee together.

As for a Governor refusing to make further appeals -- a Republican Governor can decide that resistance to SSM might be unwise. Governors of Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin might be in that position at some time.  
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP - Very Close Race in CO, unless Christie is Rep. Nominee on: August 02, 2014, 04:42:19 pm
No Democratic nominee for President has won Florida by a 10% margin in a binary choice since FDR in 1944. Not even LBJ in 1964.
121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How the Democratic Party became a tool for Wall-Street on: August 02, 2014, 07:01:56 am
Real hate of working people implies a reversion to the 70-hour workweek and 40-year lifespan of industrial workers as was once the norm. That they are in the more 'socially advanced' retail or food service business is hardly an improvement. All that is necessary is that the social norms mandate that wages be so low that people must work to exhaustion just to get the most basic needs and pay off the grafters.

The only change since the 1960s is that the rest of the world is tired of being agricultural peasants and Europe has grown tired of endless counterproductive wars. The United States is no longer alone at the top of the economic pile.

Lazy half-wit American Democrats can no longer dictate how the world should or shouldn't work anymore. Sadly, Dems still try to command the market to pay more money and deliver more services to their constituency, which makes the rest of the world looks like a more attractive place to do business. Americans suffer, particularly those at the bottom end of the income spectrum.

For real half-wits, try some Republican pols who vote as puppets of the Koch syndicate.

The GOP wants America's economic elite at the apex of power and personal indulgence with the rest of America driven to the worst in wages and working conditions. Such would allegedly create economic growth -- but that only a few could enjoy.

Few people want to lick the boot attached to the feet of the owner who has every right to kick one. Besides, who in his right mind would want to be a helpless peasant?   
122  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 02, 2014, 06:48:56 am
The Boston Globe just had a poll of Massachusetts on acceptance of SSM.

77% favor
17% disfavor
5% don't know

http://c.o0bg.com/rw/Boston/2011-2020/2014/07/31/BostonGlobe.com/Metro/Graphics/Topline.pdf

It seems that the earthquakes, the tidal waves, and Boston being obliterated like Sodom and Gomorrah for acceptance of SSM never happened. SSM seems to be the sort of thing that people accept once it is entrenched.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-Rasmussen: Gov. Snyder (R) up 3 on: August 02, 2014, 06:39:14 am
I don't know how to judge a Rasmussen poll. I'm unwilling to pay for proprietary information from an entity with no track record because it has new management.

A 3-point lead for a Republican incumbent in Michigan is extremely shaky. A strong GOTV drive by Democrats, which usually appears around Labor Day if the race is tight, can often smash an early and puny lead by an incumbent. Count upon Big Labor and the large African-American vote to smash this 3-point R lead into smithereens. Unions will never forgive Rick Snyder for signing a Right to Work (for much less) law. Tea Party pols broke one of the usual agreements of Michigan politics that often allows Republicans a majority in the State House.

Michigan is on the brink of becoming either the Massachusetts of the Midwest or the Oklahoma of the Great Lakes. 
124  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forum Community Guidelines on: August 01, 2014, 01:21:24 pm
What is the rule on copyright violations?
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 01, 2014, 01:14:37 pm
Quote
As for the presidential election in 2016 with alternative candidate match ups, voters were polled “If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, whom would you vote for?”  A potential race between Rand Paul (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D) resulted in Paul holding an 11-point margin over Warren (44% to 33%) with 23% expressing uncertainty.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/california-statewide-polling/

Talk about limited! Only two matchups, and only one of them has any relevance to this polling thread. But it does account for 10.2% of the electoral votes in the US. Like it or not it fills a gap.

Libertarians are a loud lot in California, but they also have a clear ceiling. I guess that Paul would not rise much from 40% of the vote share. Hillary Clinton will not lose California. I do not change my projection that she would get anything less than 55% of the vote -- heck, President Obama on this poll has a 48% approval rating in California, which is surely one of the highest.  

Most R voters in California are Libertarians, so I can't imagine Christie, Bush, or Huckabee faring any better.    

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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