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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL OH PA by Quinnipiac on: June 18, 2015, 07:31:12 am
Q has had the strongest tendency to give the strongest chance to Hillary Clinton in Florida but not elsewhere.

Pennsylvania and Ohio will be decided on turnout. Republicans will need to break the willingness of late-deciders to vote to have any chance to win either state. That has been shown easy in the midterm elections of 2002, 2010, and 2014. A Presidential year? Such won't be so easy.

127  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich / Thune on: June 17, 2015, 09:04:18 pm
The last two Vice-Presidents were from two states with the minimum allocation (3) of electoral votes -- Wyoming (Cheney) and Delaware (Biden). Neither was from a state that anyone thought in doubt in the Presidential election.

Dubya chose Cheney for his alleged skills as an administrator.

Obama chose Biden because Biden was the poorest Democrat in the Senate -- someone with no possibility of any scandals for personal gain.

Thune? What does he have to offer?  
128  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush rejects God on: June 17, 2015, 07:43:52 pm
I like the Pope but I'm more worried that Jeb's rejecting science.

Bingo.

Science solves problems. Ideology either creates them or intensifies old ones.
129  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: June 17, 2015, 07:08:42 pm
Quinnipiac -- 67-EV gold mine (FL, OH, PA)

FL:

Hillary/Rubio: 47/44
Hillary/Bush: 46/42
Hillary/Christie: 46/35
Hillary/Paul: 46/39
Hillary/Huckabee: 49/38
Hillary/Walker: 48/38
Hillary/Cruz: 48/37
Hilllary/Kasich: 48/35


OH:

Kasich/Hillary: 47/40
Hillary/Christie: 44/39
Hillary/Paul: 43/43
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/41
Hillary/Bush: 42/41
Hillary/Rubio: 45/42
Hillary/Walker: 44/40
Hillary/Cruz: 47/39


PA:

Rubio/Hillary: 44/43
Paul/Hillary: 45/44
Hillary/Christie: 43/41
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/39
Hillary/Bush: 45/41
Hillary/Walker: 46/41
Hillary/Cruz: 47/40

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234

Go figure.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gubernatorial approval, incumbent governors, Election 2014 - Election 2016 on: June 17, 2015, 06:50:29 pm
Reported by the Times of Northwest Indiana: http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/poll-finds-hoosiers-want-new-governor/article_0bbc71c8-e91d-5838-948b-2b72fab2e1f9.html

Quote

Summary:
800 registered voters
Landline & cellphone
May 29th - June 3rd
MoE: 3.5%
42% Republican & leaning, 32% Democratic & leaning, 25% independent
88% white, 7% black, 5% "other", only 3% Hispanic
48% of sample is above age 55
52% female, 48% male

 - 54% say it's time to give someone else a chance, 32% say Pence has earned a second term

 - Pence has 43% unfavorable rating, only 34% favorable


Ugly. If this is true, then the 2008 election in Indiana may not be such a freakish event as it has seemed in the last three elections. Except for Kentucky, the neighboring states seem to have a long-term D drift. Indiana may be more rural than Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, or such somewhat-comparable states as Iowa and Wisconsin -- but a strong regional trend could pull Indiana away from being reliably R.

Unfo0rtunately this is a poll of favorability, so I can't score it. It's hard to see any incumbent having a good chance of winning re-election with a 34% favorability. 

The last time that Indiana went Democratic in an election that the Republicans won (sort of)  was in 1876.






A positive approval rating under 45% is treated as a tie.

blue -- Republican incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

green --  Republican incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%


red --Democratic incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

orange --  Democratic incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%

No governor, governor in transition,  or non-partisan governor -- white.

Positive approval under 45% -- (now treated as if a tie).

The newest poll takes precedence, but no internal polls or polls commissioned by a partisan entity, trade group, or union.
  
 * -- appointed Governor.


131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: MI: Snyder signs bills allowing discrimination against gay and unmarried couples on: June 17, 2015, 02:46:45 am
If I were a businessman I would not cut my own profits to please a bunch of fundamentalists who don't do business with me anyway.
132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Oregon moves to implement per-mile fees for road usage instead of gas taxes on: June 17, 2015, 02:43:10 am
It would be appropriate to tax electricity used in electric vehicles as a fuel tax. Such would require that electric vehicles be so designed that one could not power them with household current except through some meter that assesses such a tax.   

Which would be a good way to discourage use of electric vehicles if you wanted to do that.

Fair share approach.
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP national: Hillary leads all Republicans on: June 17, 2015, 12:06:59 am
The fluctuations involve Republicans.
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: For everyone should other GOP candidates withdraw and make a clear path for Jeb? on: June 16, 2015, 11:20:08 pm
Not until he wins primaries in disparate parts of the country.
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Oregon moves to implement per-mile fees for road usage instead of gas taxes on: June 16, 2015, 11:17:59 pm
It would be appropriate to tax electricity used in electric vehicles as a fuel tax. Such would require that electric vehicles be so designed that one could not power them with household current except through some meter that assesses such a tax.   
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 16, 2015, 11:14:21 pm
Human rights get standardized. States have more prerogatives on such economic matters as taxes. Thus Texas can have brutal sales taxes and no income tax and Oregon can have no state sales taxes but brutal income taxes. States may have different penalties for the same crime, and may have different labor laws.
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 16, 2015, 11:02:55 pm
Rachel Dolezal is black by choice. She is now so black that if she were to have a child by a white man the child, no matter what the DNA and appearance say, would have a black mother.   

Incorrect. She is Caucasian.

Genetically only. She is about as complete a "race traitor" (this is not derogatory, since there is no moral defense of white privilege) as anyone could be. Unfortunately she is also a liar, even if the lies are about comparatively-benign stuff.

It's hypothetical -- the child would be white because of the DNA of both biological parents, but Rachel Dolezal would still be black unless she undid her black hair and off-white skin color -- and I cannot say whether she could do this.

Culture? She is now probably 'blacker' than Condaleezza Rice.  Heck, I would not be surprised to find that President Obama more appreciates Czech classical music (one of the world's greatest traditions from a small country) than does Rachel Dolezal.  (Speculation on my part -- President Obama has been very secretive about his cultural preferences, and he may have good reason for such).
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will it all come down to Virginia in 2016? on: June 16, 2015, 09:52:36 pm
Virginia could easily be the tipping-point state. Saying anything more than that is premature.
139  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republican Conservative Base Shrinks on: June 16, 2015, 08:55:18 pm
Yawn.  No big news here.

Demographic change has political consequences. Political parties adapt or recede into oblivion. Republicans may be able to hold the House due to gerrymandering in 2010, but even that depends upon a one-time advantage that itself can become irrelevant. Republicans may need only 47% of the popular vote for the House of Representatives, but nothing says that they will get that indefinitely. 

140  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP congressman: My kids won't be a drain to society like disabled people on: June 16, 2015, 08:50:02 pm
I can't tell whether ridicule of the handicapped is less acceptable than overt racism in America -- which is like asking whether cyanide or strychnine is worse.

141  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 16, 2015, 08:47:25 pm
Rachel Dolezal is black by choice. She is now so black that if she were to have a child by a white man the child, no matter what the DNA and appearance say, would have a black mother.   
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 16, 2015, 08:39:28 pm
I almost never predict rulings by any court of law. The preponderance of Circuit Court rulings on SSM  causes me to believe that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of same-sex marriage. Uniformity of law on basic human rights is the norm and not the exception in federal rulings beginning with Brown vs. Board of Education.    
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would and/or Should Hillary choose Bill as VP on: June 16, 2015, 11:46:35 am
22nd Amendment -- no person shall serve as President who has served two terms as President. No person shall be Vice-President who is ineligible to be President.
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where will Trump get his support from? on: June 16, 2015, 08:36:40 am
Neurotic people with delusions of grandeur.
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Oregon moves to implement per-mile fees for road usage instead of gas taxes on: June 16, 2015, 12:33:39 am
Won't this negatively affect people who need to drive a lot for their jobs?

People who drive a lot were already paying the gas tax. If anything this shifts the burden somewhat to owners of more fuel efficient cars and people who drive in more fuel efficient traffic.

But there is a huge difference in whether people drive a fuel-efficient subcompact (they were paying less in gas taxes per mile driven) or SUVs that devour gasoline.
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Oregon moves to implement per-mile fees for road usage instead of gas taxes on: June 15, 2015, 05:58:27 pm
So would one pay the same per-mile rate whether one drove on an expressway or on a dirt road? Or off-road, as with vehicles associated with ranching or forestry?   
147  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 15, 2015, 12:32:18 pm
I have seen white women having done what Rachel Dolezal did, darkening their skin and hair and frizzing their straight or curly hair. Probably after some dirty looks about having a black husband and mixed-race children they decide that being seen as black in public isn't so bad after all.

How did I notice this? The skin coloring did not quite reach the hair line. 
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dirt on Mario Rubio -- a "Scarlet Letter" law in 2001 on: June 15, 2015, 09:33:28 am
Bush and Rubio are no different than the Taliban.

They are awful, but not that bad.

They aren't Nazis, either.

Worst that I could imagine is a reprise of George Worthless Bush, which was bad enough to not merit a repeat.
149  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 14, 2015, 07:44:23 pm
She has burned every possible bridge to the white race except for her DNA. 
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who Do You Match on iSideWith? on: June 14, 2015, 07:08:54 pm
Sanders 97%
Clinton 82%
O'Malley 61%
Huckabee 46% (foreign policy)
Paul 30% (foreign policy)
Scott Walker 21% (environment - Huh)
Carson 10%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 2%
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