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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How would you replace/fix ObamaCare? on: March 25, 2015, 09:12:28 pm
Single-payer financed with "sin" taxes (alcohol, tobacco, surtaxes on tickets for moving violations). Basically, Medicare for all. 
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 25, 2015, 09:09:50 pm
Can someone add Puerto Rico to the map?
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 25, 2015, 08:58:29 pm
PUERTO RICO!

Quote
SAN JUAN, March 20 (Reuters) - The Puerto Rican government will no longer defend a law that bans same-sex couples from marrying and does not recognize the validity of such marriages performed in other jurisdictions, the U.S. commonwealth's attorney general announced on Friday.

....

The Caribbean island, which is a U.S. territory, said it would no longer defend Article 68 of its Civil Code which contains the same sex marriage rules.

"The decision recognizes that all human beings are equal before the law," Justice Secretary CÚsar Miranda said. "We believe in an equal society in which everyone enjoys the same rights."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/22/puerto-rico-gay-marriage-ban-_n_6913554.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-marriage
129  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MA-Emerson College: Clinton leads Bush/Paul/Walker by 20+ points on: March 25, 2015, 07:48:14 pm
Adult poll, but it is hard to figure what sort of people would not be voting in Massachusetts in 2016.
130  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 25, 2015, 06:59:08 pm
Emerson College poll of Massachusetts:

http://www.argojournal.com/2015/03/poll-watch-emerson-college_0.html

Clinton 58%
Walker 38%

Clinton 59%
Bush 38%

Clinton 61%
Paul 36%

Poll by some college that I know little about... No surprise here. it's Massachusetts. Adults, so not as good as 'likely' or 'registered' voters. 
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


131  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: kay hagan for vp? on: March 25, 2015, 01:37:07 pm
She runs for the Senate seat in 2016 or gives up on politics.
132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The last time a state voted for this Party's nominee: on: March 25, 2015, 01:29:11 pm
The last time a state voted against the winner of an election getting 350 or more electoral votes after WWII:



McCain 2008 -- dark blue (dark green for Goldwater 1964 as well)
Dole 1996 -- medium blue
Bush 1992 -- light blue
Dukakis 1988 light red (also *WV)
Mondale 1984 (MN, DC) or McGovern 1972 (MA, DC) -- special mention in deep red 
Carter 1980 red  (also **GA, *WV)
Stevenson 1956 yellow
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The last time a state voted for this Party's nominee: on: March 25, 2015, 12:47:41 pm
Oregon is mislabeled.

Corrected. Thank you.

...a good indicator of how partisan state may be how it voted for losers. 
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MT-Gravis: All Republicans ahead of Hillary on: March 25, 2015, 09:24:04 am
Montana became R when the ranch interests became more powerful than the mining interests. To be sure, the mine owners can be reactionary in the extreme, but miners have often been the most militant union members of all. Ranch owners must create a tolerable existence for ranch hands, supplying even housing; ranch hands are much more isolated from each other than are miners who might live in mass settlements (towns) and thus unreachable by union organizers. The rancher-hand relationship is more paternal than adversarial in labor-management issues.  
135  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs on: March 25, 2015, 09:19:00 am
Some models well suit low-participation elections (mid-term elections) that usually favor the Republicans. 2010 and 2014 are examples. Some models well serve high-participation elections, typically Presidential years or those rare years in which the Presidential administration is in utter disarray (the latter, 2006).

   
136  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 25, 2015, 09:14:09 am
You don't make maps with Rubio?

I don't make them with Carson, Cruz, Giuliani, Palin, or Ryan either. Or on the other side Biden or Warren.

Rubio showed himself as a marginal pol. He could have trouble getting re-elected in the Senate. His approval rating is 45% in Florida.

137  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / The last time a state voted for this Party's nominee: on: March 25, 2015, 12:40:44 am
The last time a state voted...

for the Democrat




dark red, 2012
medium red, 2008
pink, 1996
light blue, 1992
medium blue, 1976
dark blue, 1964

For the Republican:




2012 dark blue
2004 light blue
2000 white
1988 pink
1984 red
1972 deep red

The District of Columbia has never voted for any Republican nominee.
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs on: March 24, 2015, 11:11:36 pm
Tipping point states, binary elections, since 1988:

1988 -- Michigan
(two involving Ross Perot)
2000 -- Florida
2004 -- Ohio
2008 -- Iowa
2012 -- Colorado

2016 -- Minnesota in a D blowout
Pennsylvania in a strong D victory
Virginia in a decisive D victory or a nail-biter

139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-Gravis: Hillary only barely ahead of GOPers on: March 24, 2015, 05:50:05 pm
We have seen plenty of polls of New Hampshire, and we will see more. I am accepting Gravis polls for Montana and Nevada for a lack of alternatives.
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 24, 2015, 05:47:35 pm
First, the good news for Republicans: Any Republican nominee for President is going to win a gigantic swath of territory, and it will have a dominating appearance on the electoral map.

Now for the bad news: it's Montana, which has only three electoral votes to offer.

49-35 Bush/Clinton
48-38 Paul/Clinton
49-37 Walker/Clinton
50-33 Christie/Clinton
50-33 Huckabee/Clinton

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/

Not my favorite pollster, but it could be the last poll that I see of Montana for a while. 
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

141  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 24, 2015, 11:08:51 am
Breaking: Senator Coats (R-IN) will not run for re-election.

Quote
U.S. Senator Dan Coats has just informed Indy Politics that he will NOT run for another term in the U.S. Senate.
...

When asked why he decided not to run, Coats said he would have to spend the next two years campaigning instead of playing a vital role in the Senate.  In addition, had he won re-election he would be nearly 80 by the end of his second term.

http://indypolitics.org/2015/03/24/coats-not-running-for-re-election/





...A change from here on:

I am showing the party of the incumbent Senator not running for re-election.

142  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 24, 2015, 10:50:33 am
Florida, PPP:

Rubio 45-40.

Could lose to a strong and relevant campaigner. Prediction: The US Senate race in Florida will be the most expensive of all US Senate campaigns  in 2016.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf




143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 24, 2015, 10:41:52 am
PPP, Florida:

Clinton 47 - Bush 44
Clinton 49 - Christie 41
Clinton 49 - Huckabee 44
Clinton 46 - Paul 42
Clinton 49 - Walker 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf

We get to add Scott Walker to the mix. Some of the commanding leads that Hillary had in the last poll seem to be cut a bit.  Approval  for President Obama is back to 45%, so he is no longer a drag on a campaign for a Democrat.

Biden ties Walker; Warren barely edges Walker.






  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Election Night 2020: Scenario President Cruz re-elected on: March 24, 2015, 08:58:01 am
If still alive in America -- cheering as directed by the staff of the political prison in which I am an inmate.
145  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: March 24, 2015, 08:55:30 am
Now let's contrast the two elections (1948, 1968) involving racists seceding from the mainstream Democratic Party to form a Third Party.  




Thurmond 1948, Wallace 1968  -- dark green
Thurmond 1948, Nixon 1968 -- medium green
Truman 1948, Wallace 1968 -- light green

== NO STATE WENT FROM DEWEY TO WALLACE ==

Truman 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- red
did not vote 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- pink

Truman 1948, Nixon 1968  -- white
Dewey 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- yellow

Dewey 1948, Nixon 1968 -- dark blue
did not vote 1948, Nixon 1968 -- light blue

....I'm going to figure that Thomas E. Dewey was not a good campaigner. He must have assumed that Harry Truman was so awful that few could ever vote for such a hack.

Strom Thurmond took votes away from Truman -- but not Dewey. Thurmond had no political strength outside the core South.  He did not appear on the ballot, apparently, in many Northern states, but it would have done him no good. He got 0.17% of the vote in North Dakota, which is clearly not a Southern state and never was, and 0.03% of the vote in California. Off the core of the South he got:

  0.40% MD
  1.27% KY
  8.80% NC
  9.11% TX
10.35% VA
13.41% TN
15.54% FL
16.52% AR
20.31% GA

Of those states, Truman won all but Maryland. Henry Wallace did better in Maryland than did Dewey. Oddly, Truman lost Maryland by a margin less than the (Henry) Wallace vote of 1948. Wallace ran to the left (some say very far to the left) of Truman.

Thurmond was largely a protest vote. Most of the Thurmond vote would return to the Democratic fold in 1952 and 1956.

...

George Wallace had bigger ambitions than Thurmond; he actively campaigned outside the South. He got 12.07% of the vote in Alaska, 12.55% of the vote in Idaho, 11.45% in Indiana, 10.19% in Kansas, 10.04% of the vote in Michigan, 13.25% in New Jersey, and 11.81% of the vote in Ohio, suggesting that he was appealing to more than a protest vote on race.

Add the Wallace vote to the Humphrey vote, and Humphrey wins decisively. America really no longer has Richard Nixon to 'kick around'.  Using Indiana as an example of the argument that Humphrey would have won like Truman had he also won the Wallace vote, Nixon would have barely won Indiana, much as Dewey did in 1948. Republicans do not win the Presidency when they barely win Indiana, as in 1948.  Ruling out states in which Wallace won 10% or more of the vote, Humphrey would have won in addition to the 191 electoral votes that he in fact won:

California     40
Illinois          26
New Jersey  17
Wisconsin    12
Oregon          6    
--------------------

total shift    101

...enough for 282 electoral votes.

So why do I not mention some other states like Ohio? Because I would then need to discuss such states as Florida and Virginia.  

All right. The Democratic Party was in disarray in 1968. Robert F. Kennedy might have won the nomination and gotten a result closer to Truman 1948... or my scenario.  Humphrey pieced together most of a splintered coalition reeling from the failure of the Vietnam War. Nixon had no problem with Party unity.    

  
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Asian American vote by state... on: March 24, 2015, 12:29:21 am
Why are Vietnamese so right wing in the US? They tend to be NDP supporters here... and  by here, I mean in Ottawa.

Anti-communism. That used to win among Chinese-Americans and Korean-Americans... but China seems more a trade partner to most Asian-American groups than the old source of anti-capitalist extremism. Korean-Americans are still hostile to Communism... but only toward the Communism in North Korea. Truth be told, Korean-Americans would probably be delighted to find that the People's Liberation Army were liberating North Korea after the North Korean regime did something incredibly unwise.

Many Vietnamese-Americans have more recent and bitter memories of the Communist takeover of Vietnam and personal consequences.  Koreans who have personal memories of the Korean War, let alone Chinese who remember the Mao takeover, are now old. 
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 23, 2015, 03:45:30 pm
PPP will have a poll out for Florida in a couple of days.

We should soon discover whether there is any Great Right Hope for the next President.
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 23, 2015, 01:42:26 pm
Quinnipiac poll of New York:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2179

Clinton 54%
Christie 34%

Clinton 59%
Paul 31%

Clinton 58%
Huckabee 29%

Clinton 58%
Bush 30%

Clinton 58%
Rubio 31%

Clinton 58%
Walker 31%

Clinton 60%
Cruz 27%

Clinton 55%
Pataki 34%

If you want a good mystery set in New York on the night of the 2016 general election, your best hope will be that Turner Classic Movies will be playing the great Hitchcock masterpiece Rear Window.  It won't be the Empire State's 38 electoral votes.



  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In a 49 state landslide can Hillary carry... on: March 22, 2015, 11:07:38 pm
In a 49-state landslide for the Democrats, the lone holdout state would probably be Oklahoma.

I figure that in a 49-state landslide the Republican nominee has alienated Mormons and loses Utah.
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election night 2016:Ted Cruz declared the winner. What is your reaction? on: March 22, 2015, 11:01:09 pm
Move to a country in which people appreciate freedom enough to not elect someone like Ted Cruz.

...Of course I would expect him to do about 33 electoral votes better than Barry Goldwater in 1964  because of the difference in electoral votes of Arizona in 1964 and Texas in 2016.
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