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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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126  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA PrimR: Perdue up 1 in internal on: June 26, 2014, 05:56:58 pm
Article.

Perdue- 45%
Kingston- 44%

Up 1 in a "Tell me what I want to believe" poll?

Very bad. I'd like to see how PPP looks at this one.
127  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Civitas: Sen. Hagan (D) opens 4-6 point leads on: June 26, 2014, 05:55:14 pm
I noticed that on the question asking whether respondents would rather elect a Republican as a check to Pres. Obama's policies and try for a Republican Senate majority versus electing a Democrat who would support the President's policies and result in continued Democratic control of the Senate, the respondents picked the Republican over the Democrat 49-45. This sentiment could pose danger for Hagan if the Senate race in NC becomes heavily nationalized.

Quote
“If the election for US Senate were being held today, would you rather… “

3/14       4/14       5/14       6/14

49%        48%        50%        49%        Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs, and try to gain a Republican majority in the US Senate.

43%        42%        40%        45%        Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies, and maintain a Democratic majority in the US Senate.

7%          9%          10%        6%          Don’t Know/Neither/Other

1%          –             –             –             Refused


But will the North Carolina GOP have the ability to "nationalize" North Carolina politics? The Republican Party in North Carolina is a mess even if it has the majority.

Republicans would like to believe that the Senate election in North Carolina is a replay of the Senate election in Arkansas in 2010.  That is as much a fantasy as that of most of us getting super-rich. 
128  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: June 25, 2014, 09:27:02 pm
Gov. Jerry Brown, D-CA

Quote
In addition, the Poll finds 54% of voters approving of the job Brown is doing as governor, while 29% disapprove.

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2014/06/24/17/19/Xl7Ox.So.4.pdf#storylink=relast

Apparently he is a perfect match for his state. If he were twenty years younger he would be a top-tier Presidential candidate.



1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).


129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tenth Circuit: Gay marriage protected by the Constitution on: June 25, 2014, 02:17:18 pm
Unless states' statutory bans on SSM are identical, the ruling is on a state-by-state basis.
130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 25, 2014, 02:14:36 pm
Indiana -- subject to appeal, and the Attorney General says that he will appeal the ruling. Utah -- appeal failed, so it goes white.

The legal process works. I expect to see some more appeals implode. Utah was the first. 




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 25, 2014, 02:09:56 pm
You can change Indiana to white now Smiley

What happened?

Quote
A federal judge struck down Indiana's ban on same-sex marriage Wednesday, saying it's unconstitutional.

U.S. District Judge Richard Young said the state's ban violates the U.S. Constitution's equal-protection clause in a mixed ruling involving lawsuits from several gay couples.

The Indianapolis Star reports Young did not immediately issue a stay on the ruling, allowing couples to marry immediately.

According to the AP, the Indiana attorney general's office plans to appeal the decision. The ruling could be stayed under appeal.

The AP reports:

    Federal courts across the country have struck down gay marriage bans recently, but many of those rulings are on hold pending appeal. Attorneys on both sides of the issue expect the matter to eventually land before the U.S. Supreme Court.

    It also wasn't immediately clear what impact Wednesday's ruling might have on a faltering movement to add a gay marriage ban into the Indiana Constitution.

The 10th Circuit Court of Appeals also ruled on gay marriage Wednesday, saying that Utah cannot ban same-sex marriages.

This story has been updated with more information on the ruling.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/25/indiana-gay-marriage_n_5529774.html

132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: June 25, 2014, 02:06:04 pm
Maybe Field will slip in a poll of California. No big surprises would be likely -- but the state has 55 electoral votes.
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Scandal Returns...Alleged To Be Part Of 'Criminal Scheme' on: June 25, 2014, 05:51:39 am
The conservative commentariat is sticking by Walker:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2014/06/24/conservatives-rush-to-defend-bridge-candidate-scott-walker

Quote
Radio talk show titan Rush Limbaugh, already an avowed fan of Walker, spent an inordinate amount of time on his program combating the accusations in granular detail.

"The point is, there is no case. There was no illegal outside coordinating on behalf of Scott Walker. He has been found not guilty twice," Limbaugh said. "It's worse than a smear. It's journalistic malpractice … There is no story here. It's over."

Other right-aligned outlets like The Weekly Standard rushed to note that two judges have "already found that the case against Walker has no merit." The National Review Online's Ramesh Ponnuru penned a one-line post headlined "The Scott Walker Non-Scandal." Conservative Washington attorney Cleta Mitchell said the investigation is "ill-conceived" and should be halted. The Wall Street Journal editorial board lamented the widespread coverage of the revelation, writing that "the episode further underscores the injustice at the heart of this politicized investigation."


It's all OK in the name of political partisanship, of wining the election.

If Scott Walker were a sports coach, he would put performance-impairing substances into the water supply of the opposing team.  
134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: June 24, 2014, 11:15:07 pm


US Congress? Awful.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)









135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: South Dakota Republican Party passes resolution calling for Obama's impeachment on: June 24, 2014, 10:12:49 pm
What on Earth did Karl Rove do that would be of interest to the ICC?

Taking revenge on Joseph Wilson through his Valerie Plame, the latter having exposed that Saddam Hussein was not in violation of the sanctions on his weapons.

136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: South Dakota Republican Party passes resolution calling for Obama's impeachment on: June 24, 2014, 05:25:40 am
But guys, the Democrats were just as mean to Bush when he was president...right?

The Hague Tribunal would be "mean" to Dubya, Undead Dick, Karl Rogue, etc.
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Add Muslim Americans to the list of people conservatives hate on: June 24, 2014, 05:24:00 am
The difference between Christianity and  Islam is that muslim is a false religion.  Disagreeing with a false religion does not equate to hating those who practice it.

Atheists tell us that all religion is false.
138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "lol fox news" - The Megathread on: June 24, 2014, 05:20:46 am


One of the more common tricks of FoX "News" is to begin an argument with the words "Some say". Who is "some"? A couple of drunks on Skid Row?

Anonymous authority is suspect.   
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Quinnipiac: Hillary Clinton leads all on: June 24, 2014, 03:25:25 am
Tea partiers with a brain would clearly choose Paul over Cruz, as Paul is at least somewhat electable compared to Cruz.

That asks for a huge suspension of disbelief.
140  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why has legalizing gambling allover been non-controversial politically? on: June 23, 2014, 07:09:26 pm
It creates jobs, and gambling is easy to tax.  It's a win-win for anyone who isn't a compulsive gambler.
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New audio of Clinton talking about 1975 defense of alleged child rapist on: June 23, 2014, 02:44:25 pm
A defense attorney has an obligation to offer the most spirited defense of a defendant, no matter how infamous the defendant and the alleged crime. In the 1970s the norm of a rape defense was to accuse the victim. In essence,

"She dressed provocatively".
"She egged him on".
"She was loose".

With a twelve-year-old girl, none of this would now work.  If an adult has any sexual contact with a twelve-year-old child, then he has committed statutory rape. But that is not how things were in the 1970s, when the legal practice was far more permissive toward men.

Sexual attitudes have changed severely in forty years. We have become far more accepting of homosexuality and extremely intolerant of sex with children.  

Right.  But that doesn't get at the question I posed: OK, "A defense attorney has an obligation to offer the most spirited defense of a defendant" as you say.  But is there any such thing as an unethical defense?

Spirited, yes. Unethical, no.  Some attorney conduct is subject to disbarment, and much of it relates to failing to provide a competent service to the client.

I doubt that defense attorneys in rape cases can now impeach a minor victim with such smears as   

Quote
"She dressed provocatively".
"She egged him on".
"She was loose".

because it is now assumed that a twelve-year-old is incapable of making a competent decision to have sex with an adult. The adult has the adult responsibility to recognize that a twelve-year-old cannot give consent to sex. 

There are legal codes of ethics, and the opposing attorney can object to misconduct in the courtroom. Testimony struck from the record must be ignored.

Quote
 If you attack the credibility of a witness for the purpose of intimidating them from testifying because they won't want to testify if their name is dragged through the mud (and thus forcing a plea bargain) rather than for the purpose of convincing the jury, is that unethical?  Are you ethically required to do that if you think it will work?  I understand that this used to be a very common tactic for lawyers in rape cases, but was it right?

It may still be done with an adult.  Being a prostitute or a performer in strip shows or adult video would be impeachable. But as a rule, sex without consent is rape, and if the alleged victim is unable to consent, then the sex is rape. Such would include sex while under anesthesia or date-rape drugs. Sex involving abuse of power (teacher able to give or deny a passing grade, student threatened to have sex or flunk)  is rape.

Sexual assault could easily be reduced to non-sexual or simple assault through a plea bargain should the case of assault be obvious and sexual context not so solid. But that is a case-to-case situation.     

Quote
Also, this woman says that Hillary lied about the supposed rumors of her "seeking out older men" and accusing others.  We don't know the truth of that, of course, but if Hillary was in fact just making it up, then is that a breach of ethics, or does anything go for a lawyer as long as you legitimately think your tactic will "work"?

Have you ever heard of Anna Nicole Smith? In her case it was shady, but perfectly legal.

142  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: June 23, 2014, 06:55:56 am
Iowa, Quinnipiac.


Quote
New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie is inching his way back into the 2016 presidential race in Iowa and now trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 44 - 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 48 - 35 percent Clinton lead in a March 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Secretary Clinton tops other possible Republican 2016 contenders:

    46 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    46 - 39 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee;
    49 - 36 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    47 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2055

Hillary Clinton is slipping a little in Iowa, at least from its last poll of Iowa.  She would likely win the state more by an Obama 2012 level than by the landslide margins projected earlier.

I do not extrapolate unless some event causes one to question the overall competence or credibility of a political figure.   
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Indiana Gov. Mike Pence's VP choice on: June 22, 2014, 03:33:30 pm
If Pence wants to solidify the Midwest, he would probably choose between fellow governors John Kasich, Scott Walker, and Rick Snyder. Kasich and Walker could probably deliever their home states, and Snyder would at least make Michigan close.

If he wants to compete more for the female vote, he should start with Susana Martinez, who would be liked by the base, Hispanics, and women. Cathy McMorris, Kelly Ayotte, and Condoleeza Rice are also credible options, because they could both plausibly appeal to moderate women while still remaining palatable to the base, which probably wouldn't mind either considering how conservative Pence is all-around (though Rice might have to shift to the right on abortion). Nikki Haley could be risky, as she hasn't proven herself to be particularly strong electorally and she runs the risk of turning off moderate voters.



The ability of Scott Walker to deliver Wisconsin could dissipate rapidly. Otherwise, you are as right as anyone.
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New audio of Clinton talking about 1975 defense of alleged child rapist on: June 21, 2014, 05:37:10 pm
Sexual attitudes have changed severely in forty years. We have become far more accepting of homosexuality and extremely intolerant of sex with children.  

So, you're saying that 40 years ago, sex with children was considered okay?  I don't think so.

No -- I remember the saying "17 will get you 20" back in those days -- having sex with a 17-year-old might get one a 20-year term in prison. Sex with children was illegal, but it was not quite as stigmatized as it is today. But "17 will get you 20" applied to local conditions. If one got a 17-year-old pregnant and refused to marry her, then you might be in trouble. Race (black man, white female) might make the legal ramifications of rape even worse.

Proof of rape, especially forcible rape, was far more difficult than it is today. Because rapes were usually done in darkness or at least subdued lighting, identification of a stranger as a rapist was shakier. DNA samples can establish an air-tight case, but those were unavailable forty years ago, when defense attorneys often tripped up an otherwise-reliable witness on the fuzziness of identification of a rapist. DNA isn't so fuzzy in its identification of an offender.

Attitude toward violent crime have also changed. Criminals are no longer seen as victims of oppression and economic distress -- even by liberals -- but instead as monsters.
145  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Santorum: Reagan Would Be "Appalled" By To-Day's GOP on: June 21, 2014, 05:20:55 pm
Sometimes it feels like this forum is writing an obituary for the GOP, which is ironic considering that the party is poised to do quite well in the elections this year.  Even Upshot gives them a 56 percent chance of retaking the Senate, and that outfit leans a bit Dem compared to 538.

I am not so convinced that the GOP is going to do well enough to take the Senate in 2014; it will almost certainly gain open D seats in MT, SD, and WV. Senate incumbents Pryor in Arkansas, Landrieu in Louisiana, and Hagan are all more likely than not (they are ahead in polling) to win than lose re-election. Add to that, the Republican Senator from Kentucky is in deep trouble, and the open Senate seat is very much up for grabs. In view of how unpopular "your Congressman" is according to a Gallup poll, more Republicans than Democrats are vulnerable in the House.  It is now below 50%, and the last times the approval for "your  Congressman" has been close to that low (2006, 2010), the House switched majorities.



44% approval is good enough early in a campaign season for an incumbent Governor or Senator, but it has to be near 50% for an incumbent Representative because the talent for defeating a sitting Representative is easier to find.

If the GOP could survive the Great Depression it is not on its way to political oblivion. 

Quote
Coolidge would definitely be a Republican today.  Government was WAY smaller back then and he would like to keep it that way.


That's asking for a lot. With ideas like those of Calvin Coolidge in the 1930s one could never go far in either Vermont or Massachusetts politics.  Right-wing Republicans no longer get elected to statewide office in either Massachusetts or Vermont. Vermont used to be one of the most conservative states in the Union, actually voting for Alf Landon in 1936. 

Quote
I may not like the GOP, but as a rural Missouri resident, most of the folks around here are just fine with it.  They do not like Congressional Republicans, but they would prefer them vastly over the Dems.
 

Right-wing populism well exploits xenophobia and anti-intellectualism. That works in some parts of the country, but it offends multitudes elsewhere. 

Quote
Right wing populism would help in the Midwest but hurt in more libertarian areas IMO. 

Right-wing populism is inherently authoritarian. People don't fall for right-wing authoritarianism if they see themselves as possible scapegoats of right-wingers. Just look at the Asian vote.
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New audio of Clinton talking about 1975 defense of alleged child rapist on: June 21, 2014, 04:48:11 pm
A defense attorney has an obligation to offer the most spirited defense of a defendant, no matter how infamous the defendant and the alleged crime. In the 1970s the norm of a rape defense was to accuse the victim. In essence,

"She dressed provocatively".
"She egged him on".
"She was loose".

With a twelve-year-old girl, none of this would now work.  If an adult has any sexual contact with a twelve-year-old child, then he has committed statutory rape. But that is not how things were in the 1970s, when the legal practice was far more permissive toward men.

Sexual attitudes have changed severely in forty years. We have become far more accepting of homosexuality and extremely intolerant of sex with children.  
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Santorum: Reagan Would Be "Appalled" By To-Day's GOP on: June 21, 2014, 04:36:58 pm
Right-wing populism solidifies the Democratic vote north of the Potomac and Ohio, north and east of the Missouri, and west of the Yakima-Reno-Las Vegas line.
148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Add Muslim Americans to the list of people conservatives hate on: June 19, 2014, 07:09:04 pm
Jew-hating and Muslim-hating go together. Bigotry ranges free, and it is easy to transfer from one group to the other.
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gillibrand/Locke vs. Walker/Rubio on: June 19, 2014, 04:45:17 pm
Not after this:

Quote
MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Newly released documents show prosecutors are alleging Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was at the center of a nationwide "criminal scheme" to illegally coordinate with outside conservative groups.

The documents were filed as part of an ongoing lawsuit challenging the probe by the conservative group Wisconsin Club for Growth. They were ordered publicly released Thursday by a federal appeals court judge after prosecutors and the Wisconsin Club for Growth did not object.

One of the filings from prosecutors outlines previously unknown details about the investigation that began in 2012 as Walker was facing a recall election.

Prosecutors say Walker, his chief of staff and others who worked for him were discussing illegal coordination with a number of national groups and prominent figures, including GOP strategist Karl Rove.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/19/scott-walker-prosecutors_n_5512116.html

I'd wait for a bit before ruling out Walker, considering past accusations against him didn't stick...

Wisconsin is one of the states least friendly to political scandal.
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Scandal Returns...Alleged To Be Part Of 'Criminal Scheme' on: June 19, 2014, 04:43:47 pm
If this is true it makes it easier for Pence and probably Kasich. Walker and Christie would have to clean their reputations.

Repairing a tarnished image can't be done fast enough.

Republicans and their front groups are doing much the same in Michigan. I do not get Indiana or Ohio television, so I can't be sure whether this scandal goes beyond Wisconsin except for what I see in Michigan. If they are doing the same hanky-panky in Indiana and get caught doing it, then the Indiana GOP can implode even though the Republicans have dominated the state for decades.
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