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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Reince Priebus is in trouble on: February 12, 2017, 04:22:25 pm
The knives are out.
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 12, 2017, 04:21:34 pm
It's risky to project a trend. The worst that I can project for President Trump based upon precedent is for him to be as unpopular in 2020 as Hoover was in 1932 or Carter was in 1980 and losing in a landslide.

There was no polling with Hoover, so we have only electoral results as a guide. But Hoover and Carter started with great popularity.

Donald Trump starts unusually low and does nothing to improve his standing among voters. He will not reduce economic inequality in America.

If Donald Trump were running for re-election at this time in 2020 with an approval rating of 40% in a binary election, then the average result that he would get as a vote share in the election would be about 46.5% with an average campaign against an average challenger.  (I am arguing based on Nate Silver's "Rule of 6%", which explains how incumbents with approval ratings of 44% or higher usually get re-elected, those with 43% are iffy, and those with approvals of 40% or less early in the campaign season get defeated if they run for re-election).

Paradoxically that is more than he got in 2016. In 2020 that just won't be enough.

We have no idea what sorts of ups and downs he will have. Maybe he will start a successful war for profits and get away with it.  Who knows?  
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 12, 2017, 04:00:57 am
New Hampshire:

NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

(I was waiting for a poll of approval or favorability in Iowa from Selzer, and it is only on the travel ban, so I can't use it)

Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.
129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What would a Trump "heal the nation's wounds" speech be like? on: February 11, 2017, 11:04:55 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5Qh2XpoCsY

A hypercube makes far more sense.
130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 160 people arrested in SoCal ICE raids on: February 11, 2017, 01:15:52 pm
.....we should just focus on deporting those who have committed crimes other than illegally crossing the border or overstaying their Visas.

Isn't that the existing policy?

The Obama policy was

(1) to catch people at the borders, and

(2) deport criminal aliens.

The first can deal with some humanitarian issues -- like people dying of cold, heatstroke, dehydration, hunger, and snake bites.    

The second involves betrayal of standards expected of us all.

-Great idea! We should allow criminals into the U.S. to finally transform it into an open sewer like Haiti!

Did I say that I am sympathetic to criminality? So far as I know ICE could deport aliens for shoplifting or check-kiting.

By the way -- your choice of Haiti as a nightmare may expose racism. Haiti is an open sewer to the extent that it is overpopulated and underdeveloped. Haitians can do quite well in America. 
131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 11, 2017, 01:04:55 pm
I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Isn't that how it was almost everywhere?  Trump's fav/unfav in the national exit poll was 38%/60%.  He was underwater on favorability in places like IN, MO, and SC, yet still won those states handily.

That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.


His lack of popularity may contribute to ineffectiveness as President -- as if we can ignore extreme stands of partisanship that can polarize Americans more fully in opposition to him.

The map of favorability so far demonstrates that Donald Trump never got a solid mandate. When he does something unpopular, people who did not vote for him will find themselves in the position of saying "I didn't vote for him!" Sure, we saw this with Barack Obama, too, but far less of such at the outset  because he won clear majorities of the vote twice and because he was far less abrasive.

From now on the positions and behavior of the President are everything. He will have to change his ways, letting the normal processes of legislation work as we are accustomed to seeing them work, making sure that his executive orders violate neither the Constitution nor statutory law, and not tweeting whatever gets into his mind at the moment.

Americans do not like being ordered about on politics, and the President's dictatorial style that might fit other countries cannot work here.
132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CIA denies security clearance to allow Mike Flynn to serve on NSC on: February 11, 2017, 12:37:15 pm
Who Flynn wants as his advisors will have no serious impact on the nation. Flynn himself is an advisor (to Trump). An advisor to an advisor has little real power. Grant them the clearance and move on. There are bigger fish to fry.
Yes, because this is exactly how the government should handle security clearances.

Security clearances are a privilege and not a right. They are for the effective working of the government but easy to abuse for corrupt purposes, including espionage and treachery.  People with suspicious circumstances in life can be denied security clearances. During the Cold War, homosexuality was typically a bar to a security clearance because of the (then) potential of blackmail. Being a gambler on credit might still be. Having relatives or business dealings in countries hostile to the US or frequently inimical to its interests can cause intensified scrutiny of one's acquisition of a security clearance.

I got one of the lowest, "confidential" for Census work. I am not to discuss any personal details that I have received from Census work. If I printed off a map for getting to an address from my computer, I turned the map in with the Census forms. I didn't even discuss the route that I used for doing Census work with family members.


 I can tell that I experienced the scariest moment in my life, when four medium-sized dogs charged a door of a house that I visited (they must have thought that I was a burglar, and hence meat) and had me getting out of there fast because I wasn't sure that the latch would hold. But I will not give the name or address. I can say that four 80-pound Rottweilers make in effect one 320-pound tiger if they see someone as a threat to their jungle... a man's home is his castle, and his dog's jungle. Four Rottweilers? A burglar might as well be taking a trip to the Sunderbans, home of man-eating tigers, by breaking into a house with such strong, powerful, swift, agile, voracious predators. The closest thing to a Big Cat by build and behavior is... a dog.

 
133  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ted Cruz Compares Democrats to the Ku Klux Klan on: February 11, 2017, 11:16:31 am
I hate the GOP, but let's dispel with this fiction that Goldwater inspired racist Democrats to become Republicans. It's almost as bad as the myth that Northern Republicans wanted to abolish slavery because they were so magnanimous and righteous.

-I thought both of those were facts.

They are. The South went from 60% Democratic to 80% Republican thanks to Goldwater's racist campaign platform.

You two sound so dumb.

In fact, all former-Confederate states except Virginia went for Jimmy Carter as late as 1976, so any influence of Goldwater on long-term American politics is superficial and transitory. In 2016 all former-Confederate states except went for Donald Trump (although Florida and North Carolina barely did).   

Aside from his own state (barely, something analogous to Minnesota in 1984 for Mondale), Goldwater won the states in which Jim Crow was still entrenched and would be politically decapitated the next year.  Southern blacks went Democratic because of LBJ and ended up in the same Party with their recent nemeses.

What about Virginia? It is no longer a true Southern state.
134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump takes vacation already...goes golfing on: February 11, 2017, 11:06:05 am
As the Rabbi of Anatevka says in Fiddler on the Roof to the question "Is there a blessing for the Tsar?"

"May God bless and keep the Tsar -- far away from us!"
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Would a Trump impeachment be dangerous? on: February 11, 2017, 11:03:01 am
Yes -- because it will stoke the anger of an angry President who will lash out at anything to protect his delicate ego. Also yes -- because Mike Pence is an extreme ideologues, someone who believes as Donald Trump has acted, that no human suffering is in excess so long as the economic elites get what they can get and want; to make things even worse he is a religious fanatic who wants to deliver America to a cruel and vindictive God.

Mike Pence wants America to become a Christian and Corporate state, basically a fundamentalist-Christian version of Iran, and he has a Congress willing to give that to him.

This will not be good for domestic tranquillity. 
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Surprised Government Can't be Run Like His Business on: February 11, 2017, 10:56:34 am
Our Republic was designed specifically to stop people like Trump. Its a shame he didnt realize that sooner.



In a way our system was also designed for people voting on issues other than economic interests and visceral animus. The survival of democracy depends upon people rejecting demagogues, and this time it failed.

I am satisfied that after Trump America will be in the mood for changes in the political system to prevent a President from taking office with less than a plurality of the vote. The last two times that someone got elected with less than a plurality of the vote we got disastrous Presidents.

Ask yourself what the Electoral College really protected this time.
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 11, 2017, 10:49:31 am
NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

Plus, a new IA/Selzer poll will be out later today.

As in Michigan (which looks like a two different categories, but in which the positive assessment differs by 1%) approval and favorability are much the same. Partisan affiliation is very stable in New Hampshire, and it is usually closer than this if one sees positive and negative views predicting an election. Sure, it is 45 months away.

Because it is New Hampshire I would put it on the map now, but we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that went sharply for Donald Trump after being a reliable Obama state. Trump did exceedingly well in the Midwestern states in which farming is much big and ranching is rare.

New Hampshire has some similarities to Michigan, and Michigan has some similarities to Iowa.

138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Surprised Government Can't be Run Like His Business on: February 11, 2017, 10:37:26 am
So, Trump is having trouble with

1. White House staff
2. Federal bureaucracy
3. Congress
4. Courts
5. Media
6. Protests / Public Opinion
7. Other Countries, including Allies
8. Some businesses in the US bailing on him
9. The intelligence community

So, what's supposed to be his strength again? What else is there to the job of President?

Maybe one good thing to come out of this disaster of a Presidency will be to kill this "run government like a business" nonsense once and for all.

We can only hope.

A few points there

2 Some of the federal bureaucracy doesn't like him and is resisting him because his agenda is opposed to their ideological and class interests as the bureaucratic class. (The same is true of 9 and some of the issues with CIA leadership) Once measures are brought in to reestablish his executive authority and expand the proportion of Federal bureaucrats employed at will by the President from 2% to 100% that problem should then become largely soluble

3 The Democrats in Congress are largely opposing him. He's getting on just fine in getting his way with the Republicans who hold majorities in both houses.

4 Liberal activist judges are trying to gum up his actions. That's been covered above

5 Liberal and left wing media oppose him, conservative and right wing media support him

6 You are conflating two things there. His approval rating polling isn't great at the moment but then it wasn't great during the election. Public opinion is strongly divided on the President.

Protests on the other hand are not a reflection of public opinion. Of course you've had the very large 'women's march'. The attendees there are the kind of leftists who would enjoy a big jolly day out virtue signaling that had been organised for them by Democratic supporting  organisations. Such people are not at typical of the public at large and given the infrequency of these kinds of protests not a major problem.

Then you have all the smaller protests using more aggressive tactics like the airport protests. Unlike protests on the right (like anti-abortion activist protests or the Tea party protests) these left wing protests are rarely genuine grassroots efforts and are instead well funded astroturf efforts run by professional establishment funded organisers.

It comes down to style. Americans are not accustomed to a President acting like a dictator.  They do not like it. Typically the President tries to reach out to the other side of the partisan divide, but this time he tells people to get in line or get lost because he has all the power.

Because he has nothing in common with the Democrats in office, it is hardly surprising that he gets opposition at every turn. Why shouldn't  an opposition party act in accordance with conscience and respect for precedent?

The President cannot order federal judges around. We have an independent judiciary, one shielded from partisan bickering and not amenable to changes in the way that the wind blows. Just because the President urges the courts to hang offender high is no reason for the courts to decide that such is not cruel and unusual punishment.

Against President Obama, Republicans made an early decision to not cooperate. With President Trump Republicans tell Democrats that unless they sell out their principles and their constituencies to the Trump Administration they have no relevance to the political process. It is hardly surprising that liberals resist. This is an Administration with its own Party in nearly-complete lockstep, one that believes in all power to the economic elites at the expense of all else.         
139  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jason Chaffetz gets yelled at townhall on: February 10, 2017, 11:40:48 pm
People have no obligation to show standing on an issue to protest.
140  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 160 people arrested in SoCal ICE raids on: February 10, 2017, 11:38:47 pm
.....we should just focus on deporting those who have committed crimes other than illegally crossing the border or overstaying their Visas.

Isn't that the existing policy?

The Obama policy was

(1) to catch people at the borders, and

(2) deport criminal aliens.

The first can deal with some humanitarian issues -- like people dying of cold, heatstroke, dehydration, hunger, and snake bites.    

The second involves betrayal of standards expected of us all.

So -- do not break up families; family cohesion is both a conservative and humanistic virtue worthy of honor.   
141  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 160 people arrested in SoCal ICE raids on: February 10, 2017, 11:29:50 pm
Obama had no problem with the deportation of criminal aliens. This raid changes nothing. Even the argument "don't break up families" fails to defend a juvenile who is a member of a criminal gang.

So what would you do with this family?

Enrique, 41. Native of Honduras. Illegally immigrated to the USA in 2008 with a wife Rosa and three children. Escaped drug violence knowing that he has a death warrant by a drug syndicate in Honduras after nine years. Works in a body shop. No criminal record.

Rosa, 38. Enrique's husband, also from Honduras. Mother of six kids.

Marta, 19. Married to a US-born citizen of Mexican origin. Has a child born in the USA. Attending junior college and does part-time work as a waitress.

Roberto, known to most of his friends as "Bobby", 17. Getting good grades in school. He speaks unexceptionable English, so nobody knows that he is an illegal alien. He already has a girlfriend, a blue-eyed blond girl from Iowa. Her parents were troubled at first until they realized how level-headed he is.

Luis, 15. High-school  drop-out, member of the infamous gang MS-13, and you don't want to know most of his aliases; pimp and pusher. Rumors are that he has killed, but nobody wants to place any murders on him because he would be tried as a juvenile. The police are looking for bigger fish. He might grow up into that role.

Carlota, 12. She has been in America since she was three, so she wouldn't know how to live in Honduras -- especially if she should be stuck with Luis as a mentor. If she stays in America she may do fine.  

Bernardo, age 8. Born in the USA. Mentally retarded with other disabilities.

Teresa, age 7. Unremarkable. Of course born in the USA.

....Now which of these do you deport?

You obviously can't deport Bernardo or Teresa. Marta is married to a US citizen  and has her own anchor baby. Carlota? There would be humanitarian concerns even if she is an 'illegal alien'. Roberto might join the Armed Services just to get legal status, but if he doesn't, he will probably do fine.

Bernardo and Teresa will need their parents.

Luis of course must be deported. If he gets killed in Honduras by fellow gang members, then such is the consequences of being involved in his way of life.

I hope that I have not used too blatant of stereotypes here.
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 10, 2017, 10:54:03 pm
When a country's leader is considered a literal joke, then it's probably impossible for America to ever recover it's prestige.

Just elect someone like JFK or Obama (who are extremely unlike, with Obama more like Eisenhower in contrast to JFK, which is about as different as two good Presidents can be)... and America can get respect again for having a much greater likelihood of doing the right thing.

Quote
Finally we continue to find that unhappiness with Trump- and with Congressional Republicans- could help Democrats to make big gains in 2018. Democrats lead 49/41 on the generic Congressional ballot. That's partially a product of Trump's unpopularity but also an outgrowth of Paul Ryan (35/47 approval), Mitch McConnell (23/52 approval), and Congress as a whole (16/68 approval) being unpopular in their own rights.

There's nothing like a bad President to tear down his Party in Congress. Republicans who can't see that possibility with Donald Trump have forgotten how they took down the Democratic majorities in both Houses of Congress and eventually the Presidency with someone really good as President. A bad President exposes whatever weaknesses members of Congress from his Party have. This is happening much faster with Donald Trump than with Barack Obama. Republicans figured out what to do with Obama in far less time than Democrats are figuring out what to do with Donald Trump.

He isn't fair... and he doesn't even understand the Bill of Rights and the tradition of indifference to religion in the heritage of America. I'm sure that many of us already have been adapting the famous Niemöller quote...

First they came for the Muslims... AND I SPOKE OUT!

I have no idea of how long it will take for President Trump to back down. If he does he will look like a fool. If he doesn't back down he will be an even bigger fool.






143  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is a person that hears God insane or really hearing it? on: February 10, 2017, 07:14:00 pm
God? Not likely. The Devil? I knew who it was when he told me to commit crimes and other self-destructive deeds.

...I'm thinking about making a one-entity play out of that. Title: "Speaking of the Devil"... I would need multiple characters, because the entity isn't always a white male.

Worthy revenge!
144  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jason Chaffetz gets yelled at townhall on: February 10, 2017, 07:09:14 pm
That's exactly what must happen to people who put political power over service and convenient falsehoods over objective truth.
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US investigators corroborate and confirm some aspects of the Russia dossier on: February 10, 2017, 07:07:26 pm
those investigators are playing with their future.

The only advice that I can give them is to sleep with their passports, have a suitcase packed, and keep reasonably close to an international airport. 
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do Donald Trump and Adolf Hitler have a common ancestor? on: February 10, 2017, 07:02:00 pm
Of course they have. But no one, that we know about as the church records don't go back before 1500. Given the demographic expansion in Europe in the Bronze age, he or she lived maybe then, or even later. As both come from "old settled land" and I have more ties to "new settled land", I am proably closer related to both. Beware!

If you go 33 generations back (about 800 to 1000 years) your theoretical number of ancestors in this generation is higer than the number of people living on this planet, today. This does not mean, you are related to everyone who lived by then - "everyone in Europe is related to Charlemagne" is a fallacy, but the possibility to be related to someone rises exponentially with every generation you go back.

Many people don't seem to comprehend that all living creatures on earth are probably related, let alone all individuals of one species. Of course the last common ancestor of two human beings can have lived several ten thousand years ago.

Anyone who can trace ancestry to a European aristocrat, which includes anyone with a connection to the early non-Jewish European settlers of New England or the Tidewater region, Quakers in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and many of the Scots-Irish who found their way to the Backwoods of Appalachia can trace ancestry to Charlemagne. The ones that I best know are those who settled in New England. Most were middle-class, which means that they had a genuine aristocratic ancestor as a grandparent or great-grandparent.

But what of the serfs? The population of medieval Europe was much smaller at the critical time of the Black Death, and the serf was typically somehow related to the lord of the manor. Even if the jus primae noctis  was myth, many people of aristocratic origin slipped into the peasantry if they did not join a convent or monastery.

Once one finds the aristocrats, one usually finds a line that goes back to antiquity. The aristocrats kept good records of such. Maybe too good, as the lines that connect through the Normans into Russia and the British isles go back to mythological entities such as "Thor", "Adam", and "Eve", or some vague character as a "Chenk" who came to Georgia (not the state, but the country wedged between Russia and Turkey) from China. Those connected to Spain often go back to Visigoths and (because of some marital alliances made to keep the peace) through Arab aristocrats that include Mohammed as an ancestor. In my case the oldest lines go through the Crusaders (who were murderous thugs)... to about the 5th century AD. Armenia, and not the Roman Empire. Aristocratic ancestors in Hungary and Italy go rather far back too.

Jewish ancestors? So far as I know I have none. A pity, as I would love to be connected to Sigmund Freud, Albert Einstein, Gustav Mahler, Anne Frank,  Franz Kafka, Golda Meir, Hank Greenberg, and Sandy Koufax. (I have a connection to the late Lauren Bacall, but this is through a very distant relative by marriage).  Gypsies? A likely exception about ancestral links to antiquity, which would be India. Who wouldn't like a connection to Julius Caesar, Plato, Tutankhamen, or Moses? On the other hand I am careful about looking too closely in central Europe, lest I find a Holocaust perpetrator. Someone born with my mother's not very common German maiden name was a general in the Hungarian Army during World War II... and was executed by Yugoslavia after the war for war crimes. He was very guilty.  

I was satisfied with lines that include Charlemagne, William the Conqueror, and Mohammed. I would love to connect to ancient Greece, Rome, Persia, and Pharaonic Egypt. I am not satisfied with the connections offered.

It's where the female lines are well documented that one gets the best connections. The Vikings did well with that; the Persians didn't.

But you are right about church records, the only sources about peasants and laborers. The Mennonites from which I have significant descendancy kept good records of themselves, but only going back to about AD 1500. I can't trace Dutch or Huguenot ancestors further back than much the same time. German peasants? Sometimes only to about 1750.

...A suggestion to any black people -- you might find a connection to antiquity, but perhaps only through white ancestors that you might find disgusting for having raped your great-great-great-grandmother. Record-keeping by slave-masters about their own ancestry is very good. About the ancestry of their slaves? They often had something to hide about the ancestry of someone with a relatively-pale skin tone, and they certainly didn't want their slaves discussing any connection to tribal chiefs in Africa, so don't expect good documents about really-black ancestors or any admissions of rape or other secretive sex.    
147  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 10, 2017, 03:06:01 pm
Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.


Thank you.
148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 10, 2017, 12:18:24 pm
Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.
149  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 10, 2017, 12:11:11 pm
I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Everything looks  bad for Democrats now. 2018 ought to be a wave election for Republicans, with Republicans getting Constitutional majorities in both Houses of Congress, which which they can establish themselves as the permanent "leading force of politics" (language adopted from Article 6 of the Constitution of the Soviet Union) and establish a Christian and Corporate State in which non-Christian religions, contraception, abortions, and labor unions can be outlawed.  Maybe people can get the freedom to sign peonage contracts.

So much for the dream of the American Right. Reality is that Donald Trump is spectacularly unpopular spectacularly early. Democrats are doing well with fund-raising. Rallies contesting policies of President Trump  are commonplace. A recent poll projects an 8% edge in the Congressional ballot for 2018. 46% of Americans want the President impeached (which probably isn't going to happen).

So much about  the Trump Presidency is an early disaster. President Trump can double down in expectation of miracles... which is likely to fail. If he fails, then he can backtrack, which makes him look weak and ineffective. With a Senate majority out of the question, people can turn to the House of Representatives and state government in 2018 and can replace some Republican governors with Democrats.

What worked against a generally-competent President (Obama) will work far better against a President (Trump) who is seen as domineering and incompetent.   
150  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Trump bends the knee to Red China on: February 10, 2017, 10:39:40 am
This is simple incompetence.

I am to the Right of the President on foreign policy, and the President is a Republican. This is without becoming a Bircher or a fascist.   
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