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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz introduces bill that would leave marriage to the states on: February 11, 2015, 05:57:08 pm
There's a good reason for the highest court of the United States being called "supreme". There is no appeal beyond it -- not to the United Nations, and not even to Almighty God.

Human rights trump states' rights in America.
Well, Cruz is obviously hoping for an anti-gay SCOTUS ruling. Then, this would effectively block a nationwide bill or referendum on SSM. If the SCOTUS doesn't do what Cruz wants, then he could rebrand this as a constitutional amendment if he can get 290 representatives and 66 other senators to jump on board - but getting that kind of support for this would literally require divine action.

...and of course, not until at least 2019, which assumes that the Republican Party will have a Constitutional majority in both Houses of Congress and 3/4 of all state legislatures. Such requires that the Republicans expand their current majorities in both Houses of Congress, and gain more power in more State legislatures. Above all, people have to care.

Extremists become more strident, ruthless, and despotic as the demographics of their political support fade away.   

127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gov. Bruce Rauner Declares War on State Unions Through Executive Order on: February 11, 2015, 05:08:58 pm
Unions eviscerated, peonage begins.
128  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak on: February 11, 2015, 04:52:11 pm
Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 
But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?

0%? Did I ever say 0%? I would not give "0%" for the chance of Mali winning a medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games... yet. 0% involves reversal of time, alteration of history, people dead for a year rising from the dead...    The prediction was not so ridiculous when Toomey had a 28% approval rating.
129  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz introduces bill that would leave marriage to the states on: February 11, 2015, 04:44:10 pm
There's a good reason for the highest court of the United States being called "supreme". There is no appeal beyond it -- not to the United Nations, and not even to Almighty God.

Human rights trump states' rights in America.
130  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee: "everything Obama does 'is against what Christians stand for' on: February 11, 2015, 12:08:31 pm
Mike Huckabee is introducing his own interpretations of what constitutes "Christianity".

The minimal definition of Christianity is to recognize only one God worthy of worship (there might be a demigod-like Devil, but that entity is to be rejected as evil, destructive, and far short of having the Power of God), profoundly good, Creator of the Universe or at least of the fundamental laws that make the Universe possible as it is, that He instructed the ancient Hebrews through their recognized prophets and that the teachings of those prophets are valid until God Almighty invalidates those teachings -- and that Jesus Christ taught some major reforms of Judaism applicable to Humanity as a whole, that Jesus as Son of God died upon the Cross (after basically a lynching), arose from the dead, and offers salvation to those who believe in Him as Son of God even if they cannot or do not adhere to the ritual laws of Judaism. There are no subsequent prophets greater than Jesus.

Although this definition allows for some variety (non-Trinitarian Christians and Mormons) it clearly excludes polytheists, Satan-worshipers, atheists, Jews, Muslims, and Buddhists). 

         
131  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Virginia Republicans among those calling for Constitutional Convention on: February 11, 2015, 11:45:48 am
A can of vipers.
132  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Antifascism amendment on: February 11, 2015, 11:33:44 am


Repugnant as fascism is, even if it claims to be 100% American (exotic manifestations of fascism, like neo-Nazism, are sick jokes to almost everyone), it is hard to define. As a rule, anything that resembles fascism tries to present itself as the definitive Americanism with anyone disagreeing being smeared as 'traitors'.

The only way in which such an amendment will ever appear is if

1. America goes fascist.
2. Fascist America provokes a horrible war
3. that it loses, and
4. the victors impose a ban on the fascist party as the US did to the NSDAP, the National Fascist party, and the Japanese Taisei Yokusankai...

I can imagine the Right using this sort of language

"No person who is a SOCIALIST shall hold any office, civil or military, under the United States or any State or territory, or shall be an elector of President or Vice President."

To outlaw opposition, anyone disagreeing with those in power could be cast out of positions of responsibility for opposition to crony capitalism, refusing to allow giant corporations to expropriate their property for a pittance, or teaching that pure plutocracy destroys much of what has been recently accepted in America. It could also disenfranchise people, entrenching the power of people drifting toward fascism. 
133  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak on: February 11, 2015, 11:09:36 am
Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 
134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If Obama were a Republican... on: February 11, 2015, 11:02:36 am
By autumn 2016 the spin-masters' advice will be "Don't even talk about him".
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: February 11, 2015, 10:59:56 am
Public Religion Research Institute just released a poll of all 50 states:

http://publicreligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/PRRI-Views-on-Gay-Marriage-by-State.pdf


New Hampshire   75   19
Massachusetts   73   21
Rhode Island   70   19
Connecticut   67   26
Vermont   67   32
New Jersey   66   27
Hawaii   64   31
Maine   63   30
New York   63   28
Oregon   63   30
Washington   63   29
California   61   31
Colorado   60   32
Nevada   60   32
Illinois   59   34
Wisconsin   59   33
Arizona   58   33
Minnesota   58   33
New Mexico   58   36
Delaware   57   31
Iowa   57   37
Maryland   56   37
Pennsylvania   56   37

Michigan   55   37
Alaska   54   35
Nebraska   54   39
Idaho   53   41
Ohio   53   39
Florida   52   40
Kansas   50   43
North Dakota   50   39
Virginia   50   43

Texas   48   43
Indiana   47   45
Missouri   47   44
Montana   47   43
Oklahoma   47   48

Georgia   44   47
North Carolina   44   49
South Dakota   44   48
Utah   43   50
Louisiana   42   48
Wyoming*   41   49
Kentucky   40   54
South Carolina   39   54
Tennessee   39   55
West Virginia   37   55
Arkansas   36   59
Alabama   32   59
Mississippi   32   61

136  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will the official 2016 republican platform say on the issue of SSM? on: February 11, 2015, 10:51:49 am
Probably nothing. It's a losing issue. It will have been decided in the US Supreme Court by then. It excites the base and offends everyone else.
137  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 11, 2015, 10:48:33 am
Polling found that a plurality of 47 percent approve of the job Republican Lamar Alexander is doing, while 32 percent disapprove of his performance. The rest said they didn't know or refused to answer.

Tennesseans gave Republican Sen. Bob Corker a 44 percent approval rating. The poll found that 27 percent disapproved of Corker's performance and 29 percent said they didn't know or wouldn't answer.

Read more: Poll: 79 percent approve of Tennessee's free tuition plan | Johnson City Press http://www.johnsoncitypress.com/article/124142/poll-79-percent-approve-of-tennessees-free-tuition-plan#ixzz3RS4i6RmP
Follow us: @JCPress on Twitter | JohnsonCityPress on Facebook

http://www.johnsoncitypress.com/article/124142/poll-79-percent-approve-of-tennessees-free-tuition-plan

Nothing that will show on the map because neither Tennessee Senator is up for re-election, but we may get some hits to what is thought in some other states.
138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 11, 2015, 10:41:35 am
Tennessee -- and this may be the best that we get for some time:




60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)

55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)





139  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak on: February 11, 2015, 02:15:23 am
As much as pbrower may be guilty of only believing in the poll numbers he likes, so is everyone here who is acting like this poll completely negates the PPP one. It's a good poll for Toomey, but let's see if other polls show similar results before concluding that Toomey is in good shape.

I agree with what others have said: it's good for Toomey, and he should be considered a favorite.  However, it certainly doesn't spell absolute doom for Democrats.

PPP and Quinnipiac will get plenty of polling results for the Keystone State.  It's still a long time until November 2016. The public mood can turn on a dime. Heck, nobody knows who the challenger will be.

One thing is certain -- Senator Toomey will be one of the most obvious targets of the Democratic Senatorial campaign until he shows himself out of reach.

(Heck, I see a way in which the Republicans can win the Senate seat from California!)   
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 11, 2015, 02:03:56 am
Granite State/University of New Hampshire/WMUR-TV

Republicans would love to get at least one state in New England. Democrats haven't won the Presidency without New Hampshire since 1976.


Clinton 51% - Bush 39%
Clinton 50% - Paul 40%  

No, they can expect to win nothing to the north and east of the Potomac.  


http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_winter_preselect020915.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Webb make any "red" states competitive? on: February 11, 2015, 12:15:19 am
PPP will be polling South Carolina, the first undeniably Red state since the 2014 election. We shall soon get some idea of the political 'flavor' of the Core South.

Of course, the last Democratic Presidential nominee to win South Carolina was Jimmy Carter. Such might as well be ancient history today.

https://la.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iacobus_Earl_Carter

Get it?
142  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI: Johnson 'not changing one bit' ahead of reelection race on: February 11, 2015, 12:09:36 am
The only good that I can say about him is that he doesn't have sticky fingers, he hasn't been caught consorting with whores, and that he isn't the New Joseph R. McCarthy.
143  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak on: February 11, 2015, 12:06:59 am
We also need to consider the State in question.

Approval is relevant because that says much about the incumbent politician and his effectiveness. That includes creating a positive image of himself and not losing it --and constituent service (as in bringing home the goodies from pork-barrel politics).

 But so of course are

(1) the quality of the opponent
(2) the campaign itself
(3) the state in question
(4) the political climate at the time of the election, and
(5) fund raising and expenditures on front groups. 

(1) about all that we know is that Pat Toomey will run for re-election.
(2) we have yet to see that
(3) it is Pennsylvania, and a conservative Republican is in a tough state to get re-elected in
(4) midterms and Presidential electorates are very different, and how well Americans perceive the two Parties will shape how the Senate elections go
(5) if the Republican hold on the Senate depends upon Pat Toomey while four other Republican incumbents are crashing and burning and the race for US Senator from Pennsylvania, then count on the Koch fronts to flood Pennsylvania airways with ads demonizing his opponent as those fronts did to every vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator in 2014. Those ads worked extremely well. Democrats do not do that well unless the Republican practically says something stupid about rape -- Pat Toomey isn't that stupid.

If the political climate of America is again as in 2010 and 2014, then we can reasonably count on the Republicans holding onto the Senate, with Toomey safely re-elected.

In another thread I noticed that the approval rating for Senator Boozman (R-AR) has only a 40% approval rating. But that's Arkansas, a state that has swung quickly and probably forever, to the Right. The 40% approval for Boozman gives me less cause to believe that a Democrat could unseat him than does the 43% approval rating for Toomey.

I see Boozman far from his ceiling and Toomey close to his.

   
144  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak on: February 10, 2015, 05:04:39 pm
LOL @ Pbrower.

Not ignoring it.

The 28% approval rating for Pat Toomey from PPP could be an outlier. We are going to see lots of polls.

That said -- Pennsylvania is tilt-D, and Toomey barely won in one of the most Republican-tilting elections in Congressional history. If 2016 is the same sort of political climate, Toomey wins, and Republicans get more seats in the Senate on the way to getting the ability to change the Constitution practically at will in January 2019 as they gain even more Senate seats in  the wake of the 2018 election.

This said, nobody can predict what the political climate of 2016 will be. The Koch family has committed nearly $900 million to the Congressional campaign of 2016. Money shouts in our political order, and it may now rule.

Pat Toomey will not lose in a landslide -- that is certain. Unlike Rick Santorum he has not abused power as a toady of the current President; unlike Pat Corbett he has not soiled himself protecting a corrupt institution. But in a high-turnout election as is the norm for a Presidential year, he will have trouble convincing Democratic-leaning voters to vote for him or (more likely) stay home.   

We can predict some of the features of the 2016 election about as reliably as we can predict the Olympic medal count for China, any winner of the Nobel Prize for medicine, the TV program line-ups of 2016, or the World Series.   

145  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 10, 2015, 04:48:01 pm
Senate approval polls, three key states for any possible hold of the Senate by the GOP.


Quote
Florida, Quinnipiac:

Florida voters approve 47 - 35 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio is doing and say 44 - 37 percent that he deserves reelection in 2016.

Interesting split. Q disagrees with PPP which has a 40% approval rate.

Quote
Ohio, Quinnipiac

Ohio voters approve 40 - 21 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Rob Portman is doing and say 37 - 28 percent that he deserves reelection in 2016.

Weak. Vulnerable to a strong challenger.

Quote
Pennsylvania

U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey leads possible Democratic challenger Joe Sestak 45 - 35 percent in an early look at a possible rematch in 2016. Toomey gets a 43 - 25 percent approval rating from Pennsylvania voters, who say 37 - 29 percent that he deserves reelection. His favorability rating is 37 - 21 percent.


Weak, but much better than the 28% approval that PPP had. He will be running in Pennsylvania, the clear lean-D state of this trio. Getting the other 7% of the vote needed from his approval rating will be more difficult than is usual in a state more evenly split R-D.  


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2133

All three incumbent Senators have their problems. Any one of them loses to a strong challenger -- but Democrats need the strong challengers which nobody can yet say is going to happen. At least we have the same pollster in the same week.  










146  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 10, 2015, 04:33:30 pm
North Dakota included, thank you.



PPP will poll South Carolina this coming weekend, and I predict that we will see what a Republican runaway looks like in contrast to Burr, Rubio, Portman, or Toomey.

I have yet to show any Democrat in trouble yet... after all, the only poll involving a Democratic incumbent involves Chuck Schumer in New York.





147  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 10, 2015, 04:29:21 pm
You missed North Dakota, though it doesn't really matter since your whole concept here is flawed.

All predictive models have flaws. I claim no talent as a prophet.

(I knew that I was off by one state in my count -- and an easy State to ignore. Thank you for that correction).

...This model might show who is having problems (or more problems) at the moment -- when there is a poll. It is no better than the poll, of course. 

You cannot deny that Pat Toomey is in far worse shape than Chuck Schumer -- right?   
148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Governor Terrible (Brownback) to balance budget via cutting highway funding on: February 09, 2015, 07:33:30 pm
By 2070 the automobile could be obsolete, and Interstate roadbeds might often be re-purposed as super-speed train paths.
149  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tom Cotton Wants Terror Detainees To 'Rot In Hell,' But He'll Settle For Gitmo on: February 09, 2015, 07:31:26 pm
The Koch dream -- one Empire Under Mammon.
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Bush 2016 Map on: February 09, 2015, 07:20:23 pm
Polls only from after the 2014 election. Only seven states, but some that can say much about the 2016 election should the polls hold as they are. 


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Clinton and Bush are in a virtual tie in Florida and North Carolina -- but Clinton has a significant lead in Ohio. With what I have I see Clinton winning somewhere between how Obama won in 2008 and how Obama won in 2012.

New York and New Jersey show what I would expect in a Democratic win.

New Hampshire is not going to help the Republican as it did in 2000.

A Republican nominee can win without Pennsylvania, but the state has to be close to indicate that the Republican can win 50% of the popular and electoral vote.

Ohio is an absolute must-win for any Republican nominee. It could have been the difference for Gore in 2000 and for Kerry in 2004.  A Republican is not going to lose Ohio and win Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. 

North Carolina was Barack Obama's weakest win in 2008; Florida was his weakest win in 2012. If either state is close in 2016, then the Democrat wins nationwide.   

Sure, there are other possible swing states than Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio; we will see polls for Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin -- maybe even Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri -- because there will be or can be hot Senate races.

Based on these seven states alone I can show you how a likely Bush victory looks at any stage:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Florida is typically either close in a close election or has swung far away for the Democrat. That is how Florida has been in every election except 1964. North Carolina is no contest, and Ohio is only on the fringe of contest.  Hillary could be making desperate efforts to win the state -- and failing. Florida Republicans get to spend money on a Senate campaign instead of on the Presidency.

If North Carolina is out of contention, then Virginia is likely gone. If Ohio is on the fringe of contention, then Iowa and Wisconsin are iffy. This is at best (for Clinton) a Kerry 2004 scenario.


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