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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: After signing bill gutting Internet privacy, Trump says net neutrality is next on: April 02, 2017, 07:19:16 pm
Food and clothing are somewhat competitive. Used clothing is incredibly cheap at Salvation Army and Goodwill or at flea markets, so long as one is willing to give up style to save significant money. Food is often subsidized, especially with TANF.

Government-supplied Internet? It would be something like Wi-Fi as provided by many retailers and restaurants.  There might not be enough computing power for gaming, a huge use of data. One can run up about as much data on games as on cable TV, especially with extreme resolution.

Net neutrality poses much potential for corruption. If your ISP supports Senator Snake, then you might not get to see the website of his opponent. It's easy to see how one provider might align with some businesses at the expense of others.  
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico: Why Republicans Can’t Find the Big Voter Fraud Conspiracy on: April 02, 2017, 03:54:03 pm
It is difficult to find a non-existent conspiracy unless the one demanding that such a conspiracy be discovered is Josef Stalin, Satan Hussein, or one of the Kim dynasty. Then of course such a conspiracy must be created, and people must die as proof of the conspiracy after some show trial.

Donald Trump is nowhere near that bad, and no single person in Congress can demand such.

President still wants 'his' landslide, one in which he wins all but six or so states.   
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Fox/Bill O'R spent 13+ million settling O'Reilly's sexual harassment claims on: April 02, 2017, 03:49:37 pm
Fire. Him. Now.

If I were a top manager I would be swift to fire anyone who put company assets at risk from any lawsuit for malfeasance -- and a sexual-harassment lawsuit is the most pointless risk that I can imagine.
129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 02, 2017, 03:47:34 pm
Or... in the range in which people can tolerate his failure for an extended time. Democrats may be thinking "this is the price we pay for making big gains in Congress and state legislatures, and we get big rewards in 2020 for putting up with a President that we despise."

If it gets much worse we have the possibility of mass unrest with horrible consequences for the economy and foreign policy. There are countries with excellent intelligence services that could be extremely hostile to President Trump, especially should he start governing far more like a dictator than he does now. A hint: some of these countries have alliances with the USA.

130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 02, 2017, 03:00:50 pm

Stabilizing around -15-20? That could be good-ish and bad news for him at the same time.

The good news is that he is stabilizing at a level above that in which a military coup is possible. The bad news is that he has badly damaged his credibility as President; he  may have inflicted the sort of gridlock that we have had with Obama as President and Republicans in control of both Houses of Congress. The other bad news is that he could be taking at the least his House majority down with him and putting many Republican state houses in peril while doing nothing to gain what might otherwise be vulnerable Senate seats now in Democratic hands (as in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin which he flipped from D to R in the Presidential election of 2016.  

Let there be an economic downturn or some overseas calamity, and he could have a Presidency remembered longest for ending as those of Hoover or Carter. So far we are stuck with the Obama economy and the Obama foreign policy, and I can easily imagine far worse than either.

Approval in the 38% range is likely to remain stable in view of the paucity of his achievements and his many objectionable deeds. If I were  one of his advisers I would tell him to stop using Twitter, with which he achieves nothing except to rile his opposition.      
131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 02, 2017, 09:01:56 am
Moderator: you are welcome to move the April Fools' jokes (including the fake polls that I made yesterday and their responses) to a new or existing thread suited  to such levity. The misspellings were intended as clues.
132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors confront politicians at town halls megathread on: April 02, 2017, 12:22:15 am
No easy time in Utah

Constituents booed and heckled Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) Friday evening at a town hall meeting in Salt Lake City, where audience members questioned him on issues including immigration and President Donald Trump’s Russia ties.

More than 1,000 people attended Friday’s town hall at West High School, the first held in the state since Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) claimed protesters at a forum he held in February were paid. The Salt Lake Tribune reported that members of the audience frequently shouted at Stewart to “do your job,” called him a “liar” and asked “who are you in bed with?” They also held up signs that read “agree” or “disagree” to show the congressman how they felt about his responses to questions.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chris-stewart-town-hall_us_58dfb399e4b0b3918c83e79e?2r4nqtka1hismunmi&&
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Trump win Reelection less than 40% Job Approval (Maps?) on: April 01, 2017, 11:54:19 pm
There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan? Roll Eyes

President Trump can get no more than about 45% of the popular vote should his approval rating be below 40%. Add six to the approval rating (here no higher than 39%) and assume an average campaigner as an incumbent President against an undistinguished challenger, and you get his split of the popular vote. That is enough simply to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone. Democrats will not take those three states for granted. That is how a free election works when there is no meaningful split of the opposition to the incumbent President.

So how does Trump win with less than 39% approval in an election? He gets an unfair advantage. Almost every big business and government agency has meetings before the election and warns people that if they fail to vote a straight Republican ticket, then they will be fired and blacklisted. State officials have been ensuring that President Trump gets the landslide margins that he  wants.

Within a few months the USA is a travesty of what it was in the good times.

No April Fool stuff here. This is deadly serious, with America becoming the sort of place that people want to leave. 
134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 01, 2017, 11:32:56 pm
Four more from Loof-Lipra, both involving the West.

Alaska 45-52
Montana 42-47
Nevada 39-63

Nebraska, statewide 43-43
District #1 missing
District #2 43-47
District #3 60-37

Septic Polling Associates,
North Dakota 43-37
South Dakota same

I finally have a link here






Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:








Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: (NOT A JOKE) Despite Trump's actions, MN to protect internet privacy on: April 01, 2017, 11:22:00 pm
MN is a freedom state and makes WI looks like crap every single time.

Does anyone have a poll of approval ratings of Gauleiter Walker?
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: After signing bill gutting Internet privacy, Trump says net neutrality is next on: April 01, 2017, 08:46:10 pm
Internet privacy is essential to inspiring people to use it for creative purposes. If people are scared of consequences for saying what employers, insurers, and the police don't want them to say, then we might as well go back to pen and paper.
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 01, 2017, 11:03:23 am
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arprooval 41, dssaprooval 55






Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:








Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  
138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama: "I believe that Trump wants what is best for this country." on: April 01, 2017, 10:49:44 am
...but Brutus is an honorable man".

Plutarch through Shakespeare; Marc Antony, in the funeral oration about Julius Caesar.
139  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 01, 2017, 09:14:15 am
Gerrymandering ensures that Democrats need a huge advantage in the popular vote to have a chance to flip the House -- almost 10%. Perhaps our President will fail so horribly as President that people will vote Democratic in 2018 just to check a President showing despotic tendencies. 

140  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 31, 2017, 04:55:49 pm
I think what is being lost on everyone is it's still only the first 100 days. This could get real ugly

Right. This is when you offer policies that excite your base and when you offer the opposition deals that they can't refuse. Having despised the President from the moment that he announced his Presidential aspirations,  I obviously can't speak for Trump supporters. But I can see him as a failure.
141  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why aren't hate groups banned in the U.S.? on: March 31, 2017, 01:12:50 pm
Germany and Austria outlaw hate groups because of the great harm that those groups have done in the past. The Allies chose to outlaw Nazism in every possible manifestation from the the Hitler salute to the swastika and stock Nazi phrases.  Of course Nazis did murder six million Jews, among others. Contemporary Germans find Nazism an embarrassment.
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What skills do you most revere in a public servant??? on: March 31, 2017, 01:03:38 pm
I had only one -- legislative experience. That allows one to know how the government really works. The others might be nice, but they are mostly irrelevant. Someone who can't get into law school probably lacks the nimbleness of mind to hold really-high office.  This said, I am satisfied that Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower were Law School material.

PhD scientist/engineer? Brilliant, but generally limited in experiences. Such people are followers and not leaders. You let them do what they do best, and they are usually easy to manage unless you seek to violate the scientific method.

Military service? About every male of a certain age has it if there was a major war when he was a young man. People with military service might be more hesitant to turn to warfare as a solution to his personal concerns. We have had more than enough chicken-hawks in public life. 

Clergy? People can have solid moral values without having ever been clergy.

Level of income? People who grow up poor might have huge resentments to deal with. People growing up in privilege might have overweening senses of entitlement.

Owning and operating a business? Think of what we have now.

Government employment in the civil service? Teachers aren't usually civil service, but they are often limited in the range of their knowledge. What does working in the post office have to do with preparation for high office?
143  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 31, 2017, 12:44:29 pm
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27):
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%



Republicans in Congress have done plenty to hurt themselves lately. They no longer have the excuse "But Obama!"
144  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 31, 2017, 09:28:19 am
AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

It's still the Obama economy.

Quote
Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

People gave Hoover a chance for a few months in 1930. But Hoover at least had a moral compass -- just outmoded ideas on how to manage an economy. Like Trump, Hoover was the answer at the time to the question "how would government run if an honest-to-Mammon businessman ran it?"  

Quote
The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

He will have plenty of scapegoats, and until at least November 2018 he will blame people for not making big enough sacrifices on behalf of the economic elites from whom (allegedly) all blessings flow. Donald Trump is not a small-government right-winger; he is a big-government right-winger. He will put profits first, trying to make life more costly by adding more layers of profit which protectionist economics allow.  

The base is not enough. Dewey in 1948, Stevenson, Goldwater, McGovern, Carter in 1980, and Mondale got their parties' bases, if nothing else.  
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 31, 2017, 09:16:27 am
With polls of only 20 states, I could now project that of states that Trump won that Obama won in 2012, he would have a chance only in Ohio -- and only because I have no polls of Ohio yet. At this stage approval and favorability are close. He could lose Arizona and North Carolina. This is with the generous allowance of adding six points to the approval rating of an elected incumbent and assuming that things will not get worse for his Presidency.

With that, he barely wins Texas. That's enough to keep him from losing as badly as Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1976. But if he bumbles badly enough, he can lose Texas and end up with 100 or fewer electoral votes in 2020.

It is unfortunate that we do not have a general poll -- even an internet poll -- of the 50 states.  
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Flynn Agrees to testify in exchange for Immunity on: March 30, 2017, 10:01:00 pm
Quote
Michael Flynn Jr 🇺🇸 Retweeted
 Mike Cernovich  🇺🇸‏Verified account @Cernovich  54m54 minutes ago
More
 General Mike Flynn Story in WSJ is fake news
His lawyer confirmed it Pete god you are getting desperate
I know what his lawyer said, I just posted his lawyer's statement a few posts up and it matches exactly what I've been saying for some time about this. Here it is again in case you missed it.



You will notice that it doesn't mention the words 'immunity' or 'FBI' either. A House intelligence Committee spokesman has said they have no deal with Flynn about him testifying to them.

If it is only to preserve his self-conception as an honorable person of integrity, then that could be enough.

In countries with a shakier heritage of civilian control of the military, this sort of stuff is the grist for a military coup.

I would be delighted to see Donald Trump and his coterie getting onto a charter jet with the logo

147  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 30, 2017, 09:49:42 pm
Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf


Virginia:

Another poll of Virginia, ratifying what looked like an outlier. President Trump did lose Virginia, but nothing like this. Add 6% to the approval rating, and he gets only 43% of the binary vote in Virginia. Should Donald Trump get that little of the vote  in 2020 he would under-perform Goldwater in Virginia.


If there should be another statewide poll tomorrow morning, I will simply add it.

New York:

This is not the state that I most wanted to see a poll from (Ohio), but it gives me an unambiguous statement on approval of the President.  I dislike the "excellent-good-fair-poor" division because the word "fair" can have positive connotations.  "Fair" playing of the violin by a seven-year-old child is remarkable. "Fair" playing of a violin by an adult isn't so remarkable. 

This is down in the range of approvals that I have seen for President Obama in such states as Oklahoma and Wyoming. One of the states that knows the President best likes him least.


Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

Jack Benny's violin playing was more appealing than this Presidency. (Actually he simply played a violin out of tune; his technique was good enough).

FDU poll of New Jersey:

Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Really, really awful in what is probably the state in which he is second-best known. Nothing for Connecticut, yet, which would complete the Tri-State.




Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:








Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.   
148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Iowa GOP introduce anti-abortion bill that treats single adult women as minors on: March 30, 2017, 10:55:42 am
How long will it be before Republicans introduce laws allowing the sentencing of witches to death? Maybe not Iowa -- Texas, maybe?

Parties losing support often go extreme.
149  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 30, 2017, 10:52:21 am
The only good news for Trump is that Americans prefer him to Mike Pence. Insurance against impeachment, I suppose.

On Trump:

honest/dishonest 39/55
non-liar/liar 44/50
do not release/release tax returns 33/61
not divest/divest 30/64
the wall with Mexico 37/55

impeach or not -- practically even

Others:

Russia 13/64
Putin 9/72
Konnelsky 19/54 ("Mc" and "sky" are both patronymics -- get it?)
Ryan 21/64

Congress itself 11-68

Congressional ballot, 2018:  48-43 edge Democratic

Trust Obama (53) or Trump (42)

Trump loses badly to Biden, Sanders; Franken, Booker, and Warren already have edges.

  

150  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Disturbing timeline of events re: Trump-Russia that supports FBI investigation on: March 30, 2017, 10:34:36 am
There seems to enough circumstantial evidence here that a serious independent investigation is needed. Surely Trump supporters themselves would want this put to bed if it's false.

FBI is pretty independent, no?


I'm totally for a serious independent investigation. But if one part keeps leaking vague data day'n'night... is still a serious investigation? Let FBI (or whatever agency/committee it is) make their job.

Good investigations are secretive. They leak only such evidence as might cause the people under investigation to squirm -- to expose the weaknesses of their positions -- to act guilty. If the Gestapo and the KGB could threaten a wretch as in the movie cliche "Vee haff vays to make you talk", the FBI can exploit the freedom to make grave indiscretions.

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