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October 21, 2014, 11:55:49 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WSJ now openly calling for plutocratic oligarchy on: September 13, 2014, 01:54:30 pm
An entrenched monopoly is good for one boom one time and then consistent underperformance. 
127  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cuomo versus Bush on: September 13, 2014, 01:49:13 pm




Florida Governor Jeb Bush/New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte-250 EV
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo/Virginia Senator Tim Kaine-288 EV
[/quote]

Bare Cuomo win. Jeb has no magic to swing New Hampshire, and the VP choice doesn't matter that much. This is charitable on my part.
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why has there never been an Italian-American President? on: September 13, 2014, 10:34:17 am
It took 100+ years after Irish immigration began in force to elect an Irish-American President. Italian immigration peaked about 100 years ago and we've already had a few people who got into the outer circle: Geraldine Ferraro as VP nominee, Mario Cuomo as a likely frontrunner for the Dem nom who wouldn't commit, Rudy Giuliani as a flawed candidate. Michael Dukakis was not Italian but fits the same demographic box, which means that was one less opportunity for an Italian-American candidate. Given the limited opportunities, Italian-Americans have done well.

Mike Dukakis looked more like a Chicago gangster than like a stereotypical WASP politician. If I were in central casting and I saw a photo of Mike Dukakis as a possible cast member for a gangster film I would salivate at his image. Sure, he's not an Italian-American, but neither is Andy Garcia.

The real surprise when it comes to political talent is among Jewish Americans. Just look at the demographics.

We have yet to have a Polish-American or Scandinavian-American President. We barely got an Irish-American Catholic as President.
129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rush Limbaugh 1993. on: September 13, 2014, 10:25:30 am
I'd prefer that ISIS did not exist, too.
130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WSJ now openly calling for plutocratic oligarchy on: September 13, 2014, 10:24:18 am
The ramblings of noted loon Peter Thiel that happened to be published in the WSJ do not == the WSJ.

But what about Rupert Murdoch?
131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Perhaps the most out-of-touch video ever on: September 13, 2014, 10:23:39 am
If I were making $400K a year, I would not be spending so recklessly. Buying expensive cars and houses is no way to create wealth; such dissipates wealth. OK, if those are necessary for purposes of business, but otherwise -- your kids may need some help in attending a high-cost, first-rate university. Harvard ain't cheap, and if you want your kids to do as well, you had better have a profitable business to hand down or be able to get your kids to a school that can keep them in the upper-middle class.

$400K income is rarefied air in a country in which many are lucky to make $15K a year.
132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WSJ now openly calling for plutocratic oligarchy on: September 13, 2014, 10:12:57 am
Dumb article that attempts to create sympathy for monopolistic pricing power by foiling against the straw man of perfect competition. Perfect competition doesn't exist, and competition is the motivating factor that causes firms to seek price leverage.

It's just shock journalism.

We no longer have a predominantly-competitive economy. Cartels and trusts are the norm in the "new" America, and they own nearly half of the political system. Competition has become a command toward working people who are expected to compete to see who is most willing to suffer for economic elites. What we get from the non-competitive economy is suspect.

Although I can accept the idea of a monopolist operating in a naturally-constricted market (there might be room for only one business in the activity, and monopoly pricing is the only way for someone to participate in the local economy because a business owner must make a living -- there might be room for only one grocer, repair shop, or gas station in that market), I cannot accept it as an excuse for class privilege  except out of fear of consequences to my bodily integrity or personal freedom. (Basically, support plutocracy or go on trial for treason or meet a death squad with my name on its execration/execution list).

Monopolies get high profits by constricting supply -- creating shortages that allow high prices, prices above market. Monopolies raise costs upon all other businesses and reduce the ability of other businesses to compete in the world market.  Monopolistic pricing operates much like a tax upon those who need the monopolist's output as inputs. Thus, suppose that American steel costs $150 a ton in contrast to $40 on the world market. An American-built vehicle made in the United States has a built-in disadvantage of $110 per ton of steel. So if the steel business is non-competitive and the rail-car manufacturing business is competitive, American rail-car manufacturers will have a difficult time exporting.

Monopolists ordinarily give very poor service, even to the extent of an adversarial relationship with its customers.  By constraining supply they as a rule create unemployment.

The excuse that monopolies foster innovation is a sham. Monopolists do everything possible to ensure that they get no competition. They lavish funds on politicians who promise to enforce monopoly conditions.  Innovation by any other than themselves is a hazard to monopolists with captive markets.

 
133  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: September 13, 2014, 09:46:56 am
So what happened?

So far every state (since Pennsylvania)  in which one of the appellate courts has deemed SSM bans void has some elected official who has effective veto power over the ruling -- and has used it, at the least to delay SSM in the state.

Some appeals will go to the US Supreme Court, which has usually taken a harsh view of nullification and delay in accommodating rulings by appellate courts.   
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz booed off stage at Middle Eastern Christian conference on: September 13, 2014, 08:40:44 am
Being "pro-Israel" (whatever that means) is starting to mean being pro-genocide.

That's basically it, sadly.  And the media along with most politicians are complicit in this.

That's how Sheldon Adelson promotes US-Israeli relations.

Permanent war with the Arab neighbors and near-neighbors of Israel is bad for Israel. Peace is the definitive achievement of national security.
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Molotov cocktail thrown into Rep. Cleaver's (D-MO) office on: September 11, 2014, 11:47:19 pm
I couldn't believe the comments in the link.

The BATF does a good job on connecting bombs to perpetrators. Fingerprints are hard to keep off a Molotov cocktail.   
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Eisenhower or McGovern? on: September 11, 2014, 11:17:03 pm
Where are all the people who voted Eisenhower?  Huh  Come on, don't be shy.  Seriously, nobody will yell at you.  Tongue

I'm one of them. I am a Democrat, and a very partisan one now.

Eisenhower was the right President for his time. His Interstate Highway System may have had its flaws, but it spurred economic growth where it was built and paid for itself with a reduction in highway carnage. He got us out of a stalemated war, and kept us out of others. He presided over shrunken deficits and surpluses. He let Joseph R. McCarthy implode. He showed some Southern pols what the law was on segregation. He avoided scandals.

He was so effective that his VP came close to succeeding him as President and probably would have had he not been so ugly. That's a reference to the appearance of Richard Nixon.

He proved himself with some amazing electoral successes. He won the two northern states (Massachusetts and Rhode Island) that went for Al Smith in 1928, and he won the two states that have been the exceptions to the two subsequent 49-state wipe-outs of 1972 (Massachusetts) and 1984 (Minnesota) -- twice. He put four Western states (Arizona, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming) into the GOP camp to the extent that only once has any one of them gone for the Democratic nominee after 1952.
137  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Glengariff Group: Snyder clings to lead on: September 11, 2014, 04:17:15 pm
The same poll has Peters up ten, which might be a little high for where it will probably end up.  If anything, Snyder might be up by even a little more than a point.  The fact that he might actually survive after passing right-to-work probably says more about the plight of unions in the country than it does about Michigan, but that would truly be one of the most striking wins of the year if Snyder pulls it off, especially if his Senate candidate gets demolished in an otherwise strong GOP year.  Amazing.

The unions will have a strong GOTV effort in place. They are loaded for bear.
138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Marriage bans struck down in Indiana and Wisconsin on: September 11, 2014, 04:07:17 pm
Congrats again, JCL.

Our ban is constituitional. It was a bunch of politicians who kept us from having our vote on the subject in November.

State legislatures cannot nullify the Constitution of the United States or rulings of the Supreme Court except collectively and with two-thirds of both Houses of Congress in the amendment of the Constitution.
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Michigan-PPP: Hillary leads all by double digits on: September 11, 2014, 03:07:59 pm
Michigan in recent binary Presidential elections:

Year      Pct D   Pct R  Margin   National Result

2012      54       45        9        D+4
2008      57       41      16        D+7  
2004      51       48        3        R+3
2000      51       46        5       even* 
1988      46       54        8         R+7

A Democratic nominee  needs to win Michigan by at least 5% to win nationwide. Unlike the case in 2000, "even" in nationwide voting favors a Democrat.   Michigan is roughly D+5.

*We all know how the 2000 election turned ou t. Because of Ross Perot, neither the 1992 nor 1996 election was really binary.     
140  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hammer and sickle spray-painted on statue of Confederate general on: September 11, 2014, 09:51:42 am
All vandalism is horrible vandalism.

I beg to differ.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin_Monument_%28Budapest%29
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz booed off stage at Middle Eastern Christian conference on: September 10, 2014, 10:28:28 pm
http://dailycaller.com/2014/09/10/ted-cruz-booed-off-stage-at-middle-east-christian-conference-video/#ixzz3CyDdAfsM

Quote
Sen. Ted Cruz was booed offstage at a conference for Middle Eastern Christians Wednesday night after saying that “Christians have no greater ally than Israel.”

Cruz, the keynote speaker at the sold-out D.C. dinner gala for the recently-founded non-profit In Defense of Christians, began by saying that “tonight, we are all united in defense of Christians. Tonight, we are all united in defense of Jews. Tonight, we are all united in defense of people of good faith, who are standing together against those who would persecute and murder those who dare disagree with their religious teachings.”

Many Christians in the Middle East take issue with Israeli military policy, which has made life for Palestinian Christians in their homeland very difficult, and driven many from their homes. “Israel’s policies have led to demographic pressure that’s made the West Bank and Gaza far more Muslim than in 1948,” explained one Middle East analyst.




What a moron!
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AP: Obama to deepen America's military role in Mideast on: September 10, 2014, 10:18:40 pm
Good, good. Let's just hope it's not too little, too late.

It would also be helpful if he could time victory in this conflict for late October.

That would be luck.

ISIS is not the sort of people who seek or get a negotiated peace. Neither is it likely to surrender.
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: September 10, 2014, 08:57:59 pm
I really wish the color coding would be consistent.

Eric and I are measuring different things.

1. He has maps for swings, which I do not have.

2. He is averaging polls; I do not average polls unless the polls are within a week from each other. I normally replace polls with new ones.

3. I reject polls that seem grossly out of line (unless someone corroborates them) and any in which someone  leads with less than 40% of the vote. Thus I have no poll from New Hampshire, the poll that Eric accepted being something like a 38-37 poll.

4. Check the legends on any maps that either of us make.

144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: September 10, 2014, 08:46:16 pm
Quote
Hillary Clinton leads the entire GOP field for President in Florida, although a match up with Jeb Bush would be very close with Clinton holding only a 46/44 advantage. She leads by at least 7 points over the rest of the GOP field- it's 49/42 over Marco Rubio, 46/38 over Chris Christie, 48/40 over Rand Paul, 49/40 over Mike Huckabee, and 51/36 over Ted Cruz.

PPP surveyed 818 likely voters from September 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is
+/- 3.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed
over the internet to reach respondent s who don’t have landline telephones.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll.

How is Sept. 4th-7th "mid-week"?


Whoops -- not strictly a weekend poll. 
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate advances anti-Citizens United amendment on: September 10, 2014, 11:00:02 am
Oh, are the Koch brothers journalists now?

The Media does coordinate with the Republican Party.

Some media outlets (most notoriously FoX Propaganda Channel) do exactly that.
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Paul, Rubio on: September 10, 2014, 07:22:25 am
It's also a mid-week poll (polling on the Labor Day weekend would have distorted things even more).

Although a Democratic nominee can win without Florida (just think of how anticlimactic the Florida result was in 2012), a Republican nominee will need Florida to have a chance of winning the Presidency.   
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: September 10, 2014, 07:17:54 am
Quote
Hillary Clinton leads the entire GOP field for President in Florida, although a match up with Jeb Bush would be very close with Clinton holding only a 46/44 advantage. She leads by at least 7 points over the rest of the GOP field- it's 49/42 over Marco Rubio, 46/38 over Chris Christie, 48/40 over Rand Paul, 49/40 over Mike Huckabee, and 51/36 over Ted Cruz.

PPP surveyed 818 likely voters from September 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is
+/- 3.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed
over the internet to reach respondent s who don’t have landline telephones.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll. Not as strong as the recent Q poll (which I did not believe or show in my maps) in Florida, but bad news for all Republicans trying to succeed President Obama.  Jeb Bush, who would probably have been a better President than his brother, would need to win Florida fair-and-square -- especially if Charlie Crist is Governor. He would have a significant edge in Florida over any other possible  R nominee, but most likely not enough of an edge. Hillary Clinton could still be elected President without Florida, but no Republican can be elected President without Florida.   


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate advances anti-Citizens United amendment on: September 09, 2014, 03:16:29 pm
How come not more Republicans opposed it?

I think that they want to show some semblance of independence from the Koch brothers. Roberts needs some Koch-aine for his shaky re-election bid this year; Johnson,  Portman and  Toomey will need it in 2016.
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Michigan-PPP: Hillary leads all by double digits on: September 09, 2014, 03:11:06 pm
I noted that in a lot of polls, Hillary gets the worst % against Christie. In this poll, she is at 48% against Christie, but she is at 49%, 50% and 51% against the others.
The same in Alaska:
Hillary vs Palin: 46/40 (D +6%)
Hillary vs Huckabee: 39/47 (R +8%)
Hillary vs Bush: 38/47 (R +9%)
Hillary vs Christie: 34/45 (R +11%)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: 36/50 (R +14%)
and in Arkansas (excluding Huck)
Bush 46% Clinton 41%
Christie 42% Clinton 41%
Cruz 46% Clinton 42%
Huckabee 55% Clinton 39%
Paul 45% Clinton 42%
and in Kansas
Hillary - Jeb Bush: 39-45
Hillary - Huckabee: 41-46
Hillary - Rand Paul: 41-45
Hillary - Christie 38-42
Hillary - Ted Cruz: 42-43
and in North Carolina
Clinton 45% Huckabee 44%
Clinton 46% Bush 42%
Clinton 47% Paul 42%
Clinton 47% Cruz 41%
Clinton 45% Christie 38%

Why?

I wouldn't make much of a 1% difference at this stage.

Huckabee is an execrable match for the political culture outside the South except perhaps Alaska, which has many Texans and Oklahomans in the oil industry. Christie is a poor match for the political demographic who used to vote for Senator Jesse Helms. Jeb Bush is the definitive "establishment" Republican.
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: September 09, 2014, 03:03:08 pm
Michigan, PPP.

Quote
If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for President in 2016 it appears the state will remain safely blue. She has double digit advantages over all of her potential Republican opponents- 49/39 over Rand Paul, 49/38 over Jeb Bush, 48/36 over Chris Christie, 50/38 over Mike Huckabee, and 51/37 over Ted Cruz.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/peters-has-biggest-lead-snyder-and-schauer-tight.html#more

Michigan is nowhere close to being close for the 2016 Presidential election.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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