Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 30, 2014, 04:17:06 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 396
126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Snyder 2016 on: July 01, 2014, 02:48:55 pm
This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Quote
PPP's newest Michigan poll finds that Rick Snyder's approval numbers have declined further over the last three months, and that he is now all tied up with Democratic challenger Mark Schauer at 40%. Snyder had led 43/39 in April and 44/40 in December, on our previous two polls.

Snyder's sported consistently poor approval numbers in our polling, but they've now hit an unusually low point. Only 37% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. That's down from 40/48 in April and 42/49 in December. Snyder's disapproval with Democrats (78%) is higher than his approval with Republicans (66%), and he's at 38/53 with independents. Those numbers are all a far cry from 2010 when Snyder earned substantial crossover support from Democrats and won independent voters overwhelmingly.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/07/snyder-schauer-tied-peters-leads-by-5.html

Not with approval numbers this low in Michigan. An elected  incumbent needs 44% approval early in the campaign to have a 50% chance of winning re-election.  (This does not apply to an appointed incumbent who needs nearly 50% to get re-elected).

If the election looks close going into Labor Day in Michigan, union and minority GOTV drives usually seal a Democratic win. Unions want Rick Snyder gone for the "Right to Work" law. 

127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 01, 2014, 02:07:48 pm
Kentucky.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/01/kentucky-gay-marriage_n_5548179.html

The Governor intends to appeal the ruling. Kentucky is not friendly to SSM, according to its most recent poll, so it goes orange.




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
128  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Tie Game on: July 01, 2014, 11:00:40 am
Having met Mark Schauer -- the better that one gets to know him, the better one likes him.

Michigan usually breaks strongly D around September as Big Labor has its GOTV drive. 
129  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: July 01, 2014, 10:57:30 am
Quote
June 26-29, 2014
Survey of 578 Michigan voters

Michigan Survey Results

Q2

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?

37% Approve

54% Disapprove

9% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MI_701.pdf

Awful enough to be defeated in a re-election bid. Snyder got the edge in early advertising, and that advantage seems to be disappearing.

The thrill is gone for the Tea Party, big winners of the 2010 election, at least in Michigan:

Quote
-The Republicans in the legislature are incredibly unpopular, with a 24/56 favorability rating. The Democrats at least manage to break even at 39%. Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot at this point 48/34- 92% of Democrats are committed to voting for their party, while just 79% of Republicans say they're going to vote for theirs.

 


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/crist-scott-tied.html#more



1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).



130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: July 01, 2014, 10:46:34 am
Based on the approval rating of the President in Michigan,

Democrats are doing decently well in Michigan despite Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state- only 43% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 52% who disapprove.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/07/snyder-schauer-tied-peters-leads-by-5.html#more


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)






131  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: A hypothetical for death penalty supporters on: June 30, 2014, 01:21:14 pm
Is there a statute of limitations on exculpatory evidence in a case of murder?

The court probably cannot vacate the sentence, but a State governor probably can ask for a stay. A retrial would be wise. The big issue is not whether lethal injection is a valid means of execution but instead whether the convict can be executed. If the state should find an acceptable alternative (let us say, long-drop hanging), then the condemned could still be executed.

But -- there is the issue of guilt or innocence. So figure that the condemned gets the choice either of a retrial in which a sentence of death is again possible, or a plea bargain to a lesser sentence.
132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Balz: It may be too difficult for Hillary to reinvent herself on: June 30, 2014, 10:02:24 am
She's re-invented herself like five times since the 90s. Why wouldn't she be able to do so again?

Does she need to reinvent herself?

We have all changed since the 1990s because of George Worthless Bush's disastrous Presidency.
133  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: College is apparently still worth it and really great, some guys say. on: June 30, 2014, 05:19:57 am
Besides the obvious educational aspect, there's a key social aspect to college that needs to be considered. You may think that big shiny degree is going to be what gets you your next job, but in my experience, the most important factor is currently (and has always been) "who you know."

For a recent college graduate, "who you know" may mean the difference between getting onto the economic fast track -- or having to settle for a job in food service or retail. Having college buddies at a good school may mean that one gets good opportunities early. But the key is "good school". A degree from a third-tier college, whether a "Bible college" that teaches "traditional values" instead of promoting deftness of the mind or, at worst, some place that exists solely to take the federal student loans that students sign for and in return only pretend to offer some classes, is economically worthless.

Community colleges are good for churning out technicians, nurses' aides, and the like. Such jobs have limited trajectories of opportunity.  Trade schools might offer low cost for a limited benefit (think of schools that teach hairdressing or barbering).

134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cool chart showing the changing US murder rate over time on: June 30, 2014, 05:08:25 am
what's up with the late 30s?

1. Rapidly-improving social conditions.

2. CCC projects that gave what would have otherwise been wayward kids work, pay, supervision, and meaning.

3. People were less desperate than they had been in the dreariest part (1932-1934) of the Great Depression.

4. Sudden improvement in police work. The FBI turned its focus on persons who violated the federal law proscribing interstate flight to avoid prosecution. Such made state borders less porous for offenders like Clyde Barrow and Bonnie Parker who may have lived in one state and committed their crimes in others.

5. Change in public attitudes toward criminals from semi-heroes to arch-villains. Criminals like John Dillinger and Bruno Hauptmann went from being seen as colorful rogues to arch-villains for killing bread-winners who had done nothing wrong -- and small children.

6. Repeal of Prohibition took away one of the cash cows for violent gangsters who enforced their will and territory through murder.

7. A heavy use of capital punishment for murder. Electric chairs and gas chambers were unusually busy. 
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Blackwater threatened to assassinate US official investigating them on: June 30, 2014, 04:49:24 am
State within a State. Such is a dangerous reality.
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: A question for those who support the social welfare state on: June 30, 2014, 04:47:42 am
We are shamefully negligent in spreading the results of our productivity -- and the means of sharing participation in it.
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 30, 2014, 04:45:38 am
Oklahoma weighs in. There will be a court ruling from the Tenth District Court, and I predict that it will put Oklahoma at Stage 4, but until then it is in the deepest shade of red. We get to see what Oklahoma thinks of SSM for now.




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 30, 2014, 04:37:30 am
Two in three Oklahomans oppose gay marriage with areas of greater support for the issue found among Democrats, younger voters and urban area dwellers, according to an Oklahoma Poll. The poll, among 393 likely voters statewide, found that 66 percent answered that they either strongly oppose or somewhat oppose allowing same-sex couples to marry.

The poll found that 58.1 percent of those asked said they strongly opposed gay marriage, while 8.1 percent were somewhat opposed to the issue. Opposition to gay marriage was stronger among those identifying themselves as Republicans, with 77.9 percent of respondents saying they opposed the issue either strongly or somewhat.

Among Democrats, nearly 58 percent said they opposed gay marriage with 1 in 3 saying they supported the issue and about 12 percent having no opinion.

The ruling by the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver pertains to a ban in the Utah state constitution against same-sex marriages, which is similar to a ban in Oklahoma’s constitution.

Wednesday’s ruling foreshadows a pending ruling by the appeals court on same-sex marriages in Oklahoma because of the similarity of the two cases and because the same judges who made the ruling will make the ruling in the Oklahoma case.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepage2/opposition-strong-to-gay-marriage-according-to-poll/article_386eb2aa-46f9-501b-808e-1c8be0c5bc24.html
139  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Pew late update **60% of todays Liberals are not American.** on: June 30, 2014, 04:31:39 am
National "pride" is one of the dumbest things ever.

I'm certainly not proud of our philistine culture, our economic inequality, or some of the ugliness in the American past (decimation of First Peoples, slavery, Jim Crow).

...No people were ever prouder of their national heritage than the Germans were in the middle to late 1930s. By 1946 no people had as much cause for national shame.
140  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Asia's Cult of Intelligence versus the US' Cult of Ignorance on: June 30, 2014, 04:27:13 am
This thread needs to be ended, article deleted, and people educated on Asia.

Anyone who makes generalizations about Asia, which includes places as disparate as Lebanon and Laos (which seem to have French colonial rule in their past as their only common trait), is a fool.
141  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Pew late update **60% of todays Liberals are not American.** on: June 29, 2014, 11:04:34 pm
So liberals are more open to foreign ideas and ways. Any surprise there?

But let's remember: FoX "News" viewers are getting a view of America in which "conservative" interests and personalities are beyond challenge. It is hardly surprising that its viewers would show praise for Big Business but contempt for anything liberal.
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: A question for those who support the social welfare state on: June 29, 2014, 10:58:37 pm
And how is one supposed to get by at $1000 a month? That doesn't even cover rent for most people.

Speak for yourself Ontario boy Wink

As for the question itself; I like minimum incomes, but there's a huge variation in cost of living across the USA. $2100/month might be plenty to live on in Texas (assuming healthcare is covered), and nowhere near enough in some of the major east coast cities.

Would the $2100 be adjusted for cost of living?

Within a state, there may be cheap and expensive places in which to live. New York City is infamously expensive, but rural western New York isn't.  California has some very costly places in which to live -- but the Central Valley isn't costly except for Sacramento.

143  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 29, 2014, 10:53:10 pm
We hold that the Fourteenth Amendment protects the fundamental right to marry, establish a family, raise children, and enjoy the full protection of a state’s marital laws. A state may not deny the issuance of a marriage license to two persons, or refuse to recognize their marriage, based solely upon the sex of the persons in the marriage union.

The 10th Circuit holding was not predicated upon any particular clause of the Utah law, but was a generic holding that applies to any state.  I'll repeat, if you must create another distinction on the map to cover Utah, it applies to all 10th Circuit states that do not already recognize SSM.

Now it is possible that in those states where different qualifications exist for males and females in who may marry, that there will arise a lawsuit if a marriage could go ahead if one was male and one was female, but is blocked because both partners don't meet the requirements for their particular gender but would if one of them were held to the requirements of the other gender, but that is such a narrow restriction, I wouldn't even consider it germane to the broader question of whether a state must generally recognize same-sex marriages.

Colorado is so different from the other states in the Tenth districts that it could either legislate an SSM ban out of existence or abolish it as the result of a referendum or initiative. I doubt that Governor Hickenlooper would ever seek a stay of any appeal.

But that is moot if the Tenth District Court vacates all SSM bans. I would not be surprised to see Colorado to abandon the SSM ban before almost any other state.
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin is thinking about a 3rd Party candidacy in 2016. on: June 29, 2014, 10:46:10 pm
She would split the right-leaning vote while taking none from the Democrat. If Hillary Clinton is the Democrat, then Hillary Clinton wins a bunch of states that Democrats just do not win. 
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 28, 2014, 02:35:43 pm
I really don't see the need for yet another category as we mark time, but if you must, then Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma should also be covered as they too are part of the 10th Circuit. (As is New Mexico, but SSM is already recognized there.)

]

That still doesn't explain the map. Same-sex marriages were granted during brief periods in Utah, Arkansas, and Michigan (and currently Wisconsin). Idaho has never issued a marriage license to a same-sex couple, which makes it no legally different from states like Texas or Oklahoma, where bans have also been struck down in federal court. Other than Wisconsin, which has yet to reach the appellate level, none of those states are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. I don't see what makes Idaho and Arkansas unique.

Brief windows of opportunity for SSM  that have not been reopened do not count. Neither does the simple acceptance of SSM contracted in another state or on places of federal authority (military bases and Indian reservations).

Permission to do SSM can be established by

(1) legislation authorizing it, including initiative or referendum
(2) an interpretation that the state law on marriage does not prohibit SSM)
(3) a state ban being voided by a judicial decision that the State does not appeal
(4) a state ban being voided but appealed, but the appeal being denied
(5) state bans being voided by a decision of the Supreme Court analogous to Loving vs. Virginia  that applies to all states.

All imply that the state permits SSM. States in white so far have legalized SSM through (1), (2), or (3). No state has yet gone through (4), and I cannot predict when any state will do so.


     

Utah is now in Stage 4, if not through it. The Tenth District Court has yet to set aside any appeal from other states within the district. They are different, as I can imagine SSM passing through legislation or initiative/referendum in Colorado before any final decision is made.

The courts have been deciding on specific statutes; unless someone can prove that two statutes are identical in wording, I cannot assume that appeals involving Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, or Wyoming -- yet.

It is still possible that the Tenth District Court will uphold the Utah ban, which would render the new category (in which I have only Utah) irrelevant.
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: June 28, 2014, 02:16:10 pm
 Indiana reverts to light green due to the stay. I will show my rationale for keeping Utah in the tan category.




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



147  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: RIP Howard Baker on: June 26, 2014, 10:26:46 pm
If politicians like him were the norm, then

(1) we wouldn't have the mess that we are now in, and
(2) partisan composition of Congress would not matter so much.
148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: “Any growing interest in soccer can only be a sign of the nation’s moral decay" on: June 26, 2014, 10:23:51 pm
The title quote was made by the one and only Ann Coulter, rumoured to be Hifly's illegitimate mother (or was it mother-in-law?).

Discuss.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/act-four/wp/2014/06/26/ann-coulters-world-cup-provocation-and-the-conservative-genius-for-performance-art/

No. It means that America is increasingly populated by people who never got the hang of baseball or American football because they were born in Germany, South Africa, India, Brazil, etc. 
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which suburban Chicago counties will the Democrats drop in 2016? on: June 26, 2014, 09:35:34 pm
Kane and DuPage are more likely to go R with a slight shift from D to R in Illinois.

Northern suburbs have drifted D.
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Scandal Returns...Alleged To Be Part Of 'Criminal Scheme' on: June 26, 2014, 06:59:32 pm
http://m.host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_9d5579ed-039d-5f22-ac98-947469c3c22d.html?mobile_touch=true

This story is, always has been, and will remain nothing but an ill fated political hit job.

The hit job has been on honest elections, and Scott Walker did it. America can survive journalistic 'hits', but if Walker gets away with what he is alleged to have gotten away with, then our political order is in deep trouble.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 396


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines