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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Trump gets crushed, what's next for the GOP? on: August 07, 2016, 06:46:09 am
We have yet to  know what sort of President Hillary Clinton will be. We really cannot say much yet, and are fools to speak except in generalities about the election of 2020. The two biggest landslides by Republicans and the last landslide of Democrats in Presidential elections did not lead to long-term dominance of their Parties in Presidential elections. One needs a Lincoln or FDR for that.

Of course, Republicans will scramble to avoid a similar defeat. They will form their nomination process so that they never get a nominee like Donald Trump again. Think about it: so concerned about getting another George McGovern in 1976, the Democrats got Jimmy Carter instead.

I am tempted to say that Republicans will have trouble winning elections so long as they demonize Barack Obama. Doing so insults people who voted for him and people who still think him a good-to-great President. One does not win by calling into question the wisdom of people who voted 'wrong' in the last election, because those people will be voting in the next election. Think about it: Bill Clinton said little bad about Ronald Reagan. He won.   Republicans might as well accept Barack Obama as the closest thing that the Democrats had to Ronald Reagan.

 
127  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 42% on: August 07, 2016, 06:29:12 am
Should I still be amazed at the 67-25 lead Trump has among white males w/o college degrees? I mean, WTF? Please explain this to me. Low info voters?

Yes. I have cause to believe that we now have an Eisenhower-style electorate (and Southern blacks would have been on the side of Eisenhower if they could have voted in states in which blacks did not vote) for Hillary Clinton.

All that one needs do is listen to the content of his speeches and watch his conduct; it might appeal to people with problems of impulse control but appall others. people with poor impulse control usually wash out of college quickly if they even start college. People with poor impulse control  rarely develop the knack for discretion.     
128  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Marist: Clinton +14 on: August 07, 2016, 06:09:59 am
Going only on polls from after the Conventions... if Hillary Clinton is up 10% in Michigan and Pennsylvania, then she is almost certainly winning Ohio.

I have seen relatively few post-Convention polls -- one in Arizona (Obama has a slight lead), one in Nevada (very slight lead, but the pollster is Rasmussen), two each in Pennsylvania and Michigan, one in Florida, one in Mew Hampshire, and three in Georgia.

We are going to see polls from other states that get polled often. Some are unlikely to offer surprises (California, Connecticut, and New York) because they are California, Connecticut, and New York. PPP gives us almost an excess of information on North Carolina. It's about time for a Selzer poll of Iowa and a Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin. For obvious reasons, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia get polled often. We have seen some surprising polls in Utah and can expect more.      

My current map, which takes some convention-time polls of Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Tennessee, states that get polled little, shows Hillary Clinton losing those states. I so far have nothing but bad news for anyone who still thinks that Donald Trump can win the Presidency. National tracking pols show Hillary Clinton up by high single digits or low double digits.  

How does she lose Colorado if Arizona is close? How does she lose Ohio or Virginia if she has huge leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania and an unusually-strong lead in Florida?  But such is guesswork on my part based on quantitative results in a few states and an overpowering lead in national tracking polls.

Now for what I can't measure -- the Republican Party has severe rifts that will hurt its electoral campaigns. Donald Trump is running an execrable, mean-spirited campaign when such is not becoming more amenable to political success. If Donald Trump is doing well among under-educated white voters, he is getting crushed by ethnic and religious minorities. He could lose educated white voters, something unheard-of for any Republican since Goldwater, at the least!

There is much that I do not know about the shape of this Presidential campaign. I simply can't say anything good about the chances of Donald Trump in what I don't know.      
129  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Clinton +11 on: August 07, 2016, 05:46:33 am
It's really bizarre to me that people thought this state was winnable for Trump.

People made assumptions that just did not hold up.
130  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IBD/TIPP National: Clinton +7 (+4 in 4-Way) on: August 07, 2016, 05:43:33 am
The Right among Millennial adults is largely Libertarian -- with no use for the religious huckstering, ethnic bigotry, cronyism, and militarism that has come to be associated with the Republican Party.   
131  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Marist: Clinton +14 on: August 07, 2016, 05:39:13 am
Right now - Trump is ahead of Truman - Truman was down 13 by the 20th of August. Truman would narrow that to 6 by the last week of September.

HW Bush had recovered to 7 by August 15th.

Dubya was down by 10 by September 20th.

We'll know pretty quick where Trump stands. His campaign is in terrible historical shape. He has 2 weeks to shape up.

Big differences:

1. People did not understand how polls worked. Those were national polls, far more relevant than when America did not have the polarization that it had when Obama was running. We now pay attention to statewide polling.

2. Donald Trump is not Harry Truman. Truman had years of service in the military (he was a colonel) and in elective office. Truman was a problem solver as a politician, and he used that combination to get elected in 1948. He also faced an opponent who  had serious weaknesses as a campaigner. Donald Trump insults huge swaths of the American public and gets into trouble for that.

3. Hillary Clinton now owns the successes of a President that the other Party has grossly underestimated. If anything, Hillary Clinton is riding the Obama legacy while having the formidable Obama campaign apparatus intact. She owns Obama successes and failures in foreign policy -- which is lots of successes and few failures. Obama foreign policy  little differs from what Ronald Reagan got away with, which one can best describe as 'effective'.

Does this sound familiar? Obama as Reagan and Hillary Clinton as George Herbert Walker Bush is a fair analogy. Donald Trump is running on his questioned reputation of business acumen. 

It's the Obama apparatus/Clinton campaign that will be running the equivalent of the "Willie Horton" ads this year. 

132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV? on: August 06, 2016, 01:42:36 pm
He's going to pick off lots of orthodox Republicans who consider Donald Trump a reckless demagogue but still can't vote for Hillary Clinton.   
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties) on: August 06, 2016, 05:05:49 am
We may be seeing a Trump collapse in the polls or even an overall collapse of the Republican Party. Polls would react to this, and definitely not lead. 

Can Republicans recover? Maybe -- just maybe. But that itself suggests a prediction. Polls indicate how people would vote if the election were to be held today. Of course we do not have snap elections.

I can imagine scenarios in which the Republicans could win the Presidency in a landslide -- but such would suggest that the political cultures that underpin the Blue (Atlas Red) Firewall that reflects political cultures in about twenty states themselves are eroding. An alternative is that the Republicans would have a nominee stronger than the ones that they have had since Reagan or that the Democrats have elected an unusually-weak nominee.   
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI EPIC-MRA: Clinton +11 on: August 05, 2016, 05:07:50 pm
...or as the late great Detroit Tigers' radio and TV announcer Ernie Harwell said of home runs by Tiger sluggers...

"It's LONG GONE!"
135  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties) on: August 05, 2016, 11:22:30 am

Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.


Why Idaho?

Fixed now.
136  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich wouldn't be doing much better!!!! on: August 05, 2016, 09:03:27 am
It is hard to imagine any of the other Republican contenders to so bungle the Republican National Convention as Donald Trump did. We would not see evidence of a collapse of a campaign so soon after the Democratic National Convention. Donald trump has given the Democrats several themes as troublesome to Republicans as the "Willie Horton" ad.

Let's put some of the credit where it is due -- on the Democrats. Barack Obama has been a reasonably-good President, and he remains an awesome politician. He gave his political machine intact to Hillary Clinton, and he gave an impressive speech. John Podhoretz, a speechwriter for Ronald Reagan, said that except for five paragraphs, Ronald Reagan could have used that speech. Podhoretz said "I should know". Democrats have an excellent data base, one that can target potential voters with relevant ads.
137  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties) on: August 05, 2016, 08:28:03 am
Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 05, 2016, 07:05:26 am
This comes off as a tie as a binary result, which is about what I would get with the average with the other two polls of Georgia. Georgia has not reverted to what it was when Jimmy Carter was the best-known political figure from Georgia... but it could get results like that should Donald Trump prove a disaster as a candidate for President and take lots of Republicans down with him.

Hillary Clinton can obviously win nationwide without Georgia. If she wins Georgia then she is at least in the territory of Obama 2008 or the two wins by her husband.    

If Gary Johnson gets 11% of the vote in Georgia, then Hillary Clinton can win with 44% of the vote. I'm guessing that Gary Johnson is picking up some of the conservative-leaning, well-educated white suburbanites who ordinarily vote for the Republican nominee.  

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 40%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 2%

Source

Crosstabs

Another Michigan poll:

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/08/05/poll-clinton-opens-up-11-point-lead-trump-michigan/88293726/
http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

Clinton 46
Trump 36
Undecided 17

Clinton 43
Trump 32
Johnson 8
Stein 3

Clinton unfavorable 51
Trump unfavorable 63

Whites
Clinton 38
Trump 36

...When a Republican is losing the white vote in Michigan, he's doing very badly.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)



139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Suffolk: Clinton +4 on: August 04, 2016, 10:02:23 pm
Clinton 43
Trump 39
Johnson 4
Stein 3

Head to Head
Clinton 48
Trump 42

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_4_2016_marginals.pdf

Even it was the worst time for TRUMP. just 4% gaps.
TRUMP will win Florida for sure.



So how is it going to get better?

George Herbert Walker Bush's campaign simply pounded the "Willie Horton" ad into us. It worked to tear down an early Dukakis lead. This time it is to keep Donald Trump from ever getting a lead.   

Obama is to Reagan as Hillary Clinton is to GHW Bush... almost.   
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Clinton +11 on: August 04, 2016, 08:39:46 pm
Do post-convention bumps generally look this disastrous for the other candidate or is Trump just that much uniquely in a horrible position?

It's certainly not a disaster for Hillary Clinton!

The Republican Convention really was a disaster. It failed to heal rifts within the party. It was all the Donald Trump Show. It did little to promote the careers of future Republican leaders.

Democrats had their problems, but they solved them. Oh, did they solve them! They stole the Reagan-Bush legacy except for the Social Darwinism. They had a President unusually popular approaching the end of his second term showing why America elected him twice and leaving a legacy to carry on.  Democrats exploited the scapegoating of Donald Trump to find a powerful slogan that one usually associates with Republicans: "STRONGER TOGETHER". Bernie Sanders left no ambiguity in his endorsement of Hillary Clinton. Democrats introduced some of the negative material about Donald Trump... with the aid of a masterful comedian Senator Al Franken.  

The themes of the 2016 Presidential elections are set.

Conventions rarely decide elections -- but this time the failure of a convention may have decided the election.  If you got sick of the "Willie Horton" ads in 1988, then don't worry. It won't be all the same stuff.
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 04, 2016, 08:18:19 pm
PPP polls North Carolina this weekend.
142  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Suffolk: Clinton +4 on: August 04, 2016, 06:02:15 pm
For Florida, one week after the DNC and after trump's Kahn (excuse me -- it's Khan) debacle, a Clinton +4 or +6 looks right-on-the-money to me.

This is likely to stick. You simply do not insult the combat dead.

143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Suffolk: Clinton +4 on: August 04, 2016, 12:40:26 pm
Demagogue Don cannot win without Florida.
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 04, 2016, 06:40:08 am
I expect lots of polls to pop up tomorrow. They usually do on Wednesday.

They did, but not the ones (Marist, PPP, and Quinnipiac) that I expected. They might not be my favorites, but they have some value. Two of the states are critical for Republicans, and the only good news for them is that they have no chance of losing or failing to pick up a Senate seat in Michigan. There simply is no Senate race involving Michigan this year.

Michigan, Glengariff, Detroit News:

Clinton 41 - Trump 32 - Johnson 8 - Stein 3


 I see no binary matchup. Today's map understates Trump's problems with Michigan. I'm using the the four-way poll of Michigan, so a poll showing a binary matchup in Michigan should supplant this one instead of being averaged.    The GOP is having trouble with southwestern Michigan, usually a safe haven for Republicans in the House. Gerrymandering in an effort to dilute Democratic votes in House races may backfire this year.

*******************


WBUR-TV (New Hampshire Public Television), MassInc

7/29 thru 8/1

Clinton: 47
Trump: 32
Johnson: 8
Stein: 3

Clinton:51
Trump: 34

629 LV

Also, Hassan now leads Ayotte by 50-40.

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll

*************
Pennsylvania -- Franklin and Marshall College:

Four-way:

Clinton 49
Trump  34
Johnson 7
Stein 3

Two-way:
Clinton 49 - Trump 38...

Katie McGinley seems to have a slight edge, if well within the margin of error, against incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey. If Donald Trump really cared about the Republican majority in the US Senate, then he would stay away from such states as Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Senator Toomey will have to win re-election on his own in what is beginning to look like a disastrous year for Republicans in the Presidential race.  
This is not my favorite pollster, and I really have to average this one with the pollby PPP.  
 


Enough said.
*******************


WBUR-TV (New Hampshire Public Television), MassInc

7/29 thru 8/1

Clinton: 47
Trump: 32
Johnson: 8
Stein: 3

Clinton:51
Trump: 34

629 LV

Also, Hassan now leads Ayotte by 50-40.

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll

*************
Pennsylvania -- Franklin and Marshall College:

Four-way:

Clinton 49
Trump  34
Johnson 7
Stein 3

Two-way:
Clinton 49 - Trump 38...

Katie McGinley seems to have a slight edge, if well within the margin of error, against incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey. If Donald Trump really cared about the Republican majority in the US Senate, then he would stay away from such states as Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Senator Toomey will have to win re-election on his own in what is beginning to look like a disastrous year for Republicans in the Presidential race.  
This is not my favorite pollster, and I really have to average this one with the poll by PPP.

Addenda: Kentucky, Harper Polling (Republican pollster) -- Trump up 13, but nothing says how he is up 13. Most likely something like 54-41.

FLORIDA, Suffolk University

Clinton 43
Trump 39
Johnson 4
Stein 3

Head to Head
Clinton 48
Trump 42

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_4_2016_marginals.pdf



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color. That could also compel me to introduce a new format.


Three-way race, and so far I have no idea how I can change this to be more effective: On second thought, I will simply start over with the three-way race. I have the old polls on another thread anyway.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


145  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2 on: August 04, 2016, 05:59:33 am
It looks as if my analogy in weather is becoming relevant. 
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Clinton +11 on: August 04, 2016, 05:57:10 am
If Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania are all going by double digits for Hillary Clinton, then Minnesota and Wisconsin are out of reach.

In practice, Barack Obama has been Ronald Reagan without the social Darwinism, and Hillary Clinton is much the same.
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WBUR/MassInc: NH - Clinton leads Trump by 15 on: August 04, 2016, 05:42:01 am
Republicans can afford to lose New Hampshire, but this margin is a very bad sign for them. This suggests Obama 2012 at the lowest for Hillary Clinton this election. New Hampshire will be a swift call for Hillary Clinton.
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-DetroitNews/@Local4News: Clinton +9 on: August 04, 2016, 05:30:48 am
Michigan, the poorest state behind the Blue Firewall except for New Mexico, looks to be swinging hard and unusually early against Donald Trump. The low side for a Clinton victory in Michigan is now about Obama 2012 and the strongest is perhaps Obama 2012.

D wins of Michigan since 1932:

1932 FDR 52-44
1936 FDR 56-39
1944 FDR 50-49
1960 JFK  51-49
1964 LBJ  64-36
1968 Humphrey 48-41 (Wallace 10)
1992 Clinton 44-36 (Perot 19)
1996 Clinton 51-38 (Perot 9) 
2000 Gore 51-46
2004 Kerry 51-48
2008 Obama 57-41
2012 Obama 54-45

At this point I'd predict Hillary Clinton winning Michigan and other about like Reagan in 1984 (59-40) on the high side or Obama 2012 on the low side, which suggests a regional landslides in the Northeast, Midwest, and Far West. The Franklin and Marshall poll in Pennsylvania (the shakiest state behind the Democratic Firewall) suggests that the only way for a Trump victory requires him to win almost everything outside of the Democratic Firewall.

I'm guessing that Gary Johnson is taking a bunch of voters who would almost never vote Democratic, and he may keep Hillary Clinton from winning the state like LBJ in 1964.

Safe D, as if the Democrats winning the open Senate seat in a catastrophic year for Democrats in 2014 did not so suggest.     
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: North Carolina-Civatas/SurveyUSA Trump +4 on: August 03, 2016, 05:32:02 pm
Does anyone really believe that Trump will get 30% of the black vote?



Getting a 4% edge in North Carolina? Maybe. An unusually-small black vote that goes 32% for Trump? That isn't going to happen. 
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: North Carolina-Civatas/SurveyUSA Trump +4 on: August 03, 2016, 05:26:19 pm
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse

Plus blacks support Trump 32%

Everyone go look at the NC voter file...

Black vote is at 22%, Civitas thinks it's 18%.
Female vote is 53%, Civitas thinks it's 50%.
Can't find any age statistics but 60% of the voting population being >50 seems too high.

I'm not gonna pull a StatesPoll but this poll is off in a lot of regards.

There needs to be a complete and total shutdown of Civitas polls until they figure out what is going on.
SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode.

RV ≠ LV

This election is unique and the turnout might change a lot among different groups.

But still it is likely to be an outlier.

I will not use this poll. You can count on PPP getting a poll of North Carolina fairly soon, anyway. That will be worth the wait.
So you're only using polls you like now

As soon as I saw evidence that the Utah poll was a fake I rejected it.

....PPP polls North Carolina more than any other state, and nobody polls North Carolina as often as does PPP. Civitas has been all over the board. Screwy crosstabs get screwy results.
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