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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 27, 2014, 12:04:57 pm
A judge in Miami-Dade County concurs with a judge in Monroe County.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-gay-marriage-ban-florida-dade-overturned-20140725,0,2555350.story

Florida may be next. The state will have to deal with the constitutionality of SSM.
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What would be the experiences of the best-experienced candidate of all time? on: July 27, 2014, 11:58:56 am
Buchanan.

He was clearly past prime.
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If President Obama gets impeached... on: July 27, 2014, 11:44:13 am
The House can impeach him even for trivialities -- not only "high crimes" like soliciting bribes or embezzling funds, but misdemeanors. meaning just about any misconduct. If it votes on a party-line basis it can get articles of impeachment passed.

Conviction is the decision of the Senate.

Articles of impeachment could bring down the House Republican majority in the subsequent election of the House.
129  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Would Mark Warner Do With the PV/EV If He Is Dem Nominee? on: July 27, 2014, 10:27:14 am
Giving Mark Warner every state that the Democrats have won in 4 of the last 5 Presidential elections except Iowa (but exchanging it for Nevada, which seems to be ripping away from the Republican party due to demographic change, Iowa being shaky) and giving him a home-state advantage in Virginia,




Warner         280
other guy     258

That's as charitable as I can be toward Republicans in 2016 in an assessment of their chances.

130  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 26, 2014, 09:28:53 am
Gravis Marketing, Kentucky:

This one matches both Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren against Rand Paul in Kentucky.

Quote
Voters were also polled regarding the 2016 Presidential race.  Senator Rand Paul (R) led both Democratic candidates in his home state.  He leads Senator Elizabeth Warren 52% to 34% in a hypothetical matchup while he only leading former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 50% to 44%.  

Kentucky did vote for Bill Clinton. But this said, a marginal win of 6% for a Favorite Son in an R-leaning state would not bode well. The Favorite Son effect is worth about 10% in most Presidential elections (OK, Obama outdid Kerry in Massachusetts between 2004 and 2008) whether for winners or losers as Presidential nominees. That is the difference between Dole and Bush in Texas (1996 and 2000) and between Bush and McCain in Texas (2004 and 2008).  I'm not saying that Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mike Huckabee loses Kentucky.

This poll suggests more than anything else that Rand Paul would be an unusually-weak Republican nominee for President. He would win Kentucky, but he might lose Indiana.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





[/quote]
131  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark Comm/WSB: Carter +7 on: July 26, 2014, 08:34:40 am
One of the better pollsters, PPP, has done few polls in Georgia while the potential Republican nominees were  contesting the primary. Now that the polling involves simpler, binary choices or a choice involving the two major candidates and an independent/third-party candidate, PPP may start polling Georgia, one of the most interesting states for a hot Gubernatorial and Senatorial races. Maybe Marist will get into the act. Quinnipiac? Survey USA? You Gov?

   
132  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-KSN: Davis +8 on: July 26, 2014, 07:58:36 am
He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

One can lose in a state with a large partisan edge for one for one of two things:

INCOMPETENCE

CORRUPTION





I can see the narrative of this race being similar to the one in Illinois. One party thinks that 50+1% of voters are die hard loyal and just sees that as a green light to play.

That is the idea. The Democrats have few such races, but Republicans seem more frequently in denial:

We can't lose this Governorship -- this is conservative Georgia!

We can't lose this Senate seat -- this is conservative Georgia!

Politicians can so disgrace themselves in most states that they can give a comparative unknown a good chance to win a political office that they think invulnerable because  'this is...' The other is that an agenda either does not work or that it has run out of ideas.

So far we have yet to see anyone lose by trivializing rape or its consequences as did Todd Akin in Missouri or Richard Mourdock in Indiana in statewide races, contradicting a trend in Missouri or the norm in Indiana. "We are conservative but we are not crazy" is one possible voting explanation of electoral behavior. The Democrats won the Senate seats despite Barack Obama losing the state by 10% or so. (Maybe the President believed that the Senate seats mattered more than the electoral votes of those states, so he did not campaign in two states taht were very close in 2008).   
133  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-KSN: Davis +8 on: July 25, 2014, 12:34:24 pm
He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

One can lose in a state with a large partisan edge for one for one of two things:

INCOMPETENCE

CORRUPTION



134  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life on: July 25, 2014, 12:30:49 pm
It isn't 2010 anymore.
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama vs impeachment on: July 25, 2014, 12:26:30 pm
Obama should be impeached. He's piled on so much debt in such a short period that the destruction of our economy via bankruptcy and runaway inflation may be inevitable at this point. Worse yet, Barack Obama has taken the position that he can rewrite any law he chooses. He thinks, he is God.

1. Whenever I see the word should in a non-predictive context "The train should be here by now" I have a low expectation of the intellectual content of what follows.

Shakespeare rarely uses it. Cervantes, Goethe, and Dostoevsky never use words that translate to it.

2. Through his bungled war and his conscious decision to cut taxes for the super-rich,  Dubya fails badly, too.

3. Manifestly false about the President "rewriting" the laws. 
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 24, 2014, 09:52:09 pm
I know why you don't include data on states with SSM, but I think it would make the map more interesting to start including it. Just my opinion.

Here is how it started nearly three years ago (August 2011):

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:



Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Red favors SSM and blue shows disfavor on the oldest map. Green shows a tie.

The map that I show shows states with legal SSM statewide in white. I would show  the status of polls if there were some legal effort to rescind a decision -- which in practice is shown where an appeal stays the legalization of SSM.

White on my maps means 'likely to stay' in practice. Show evidence to the contrary for any state and I will adjust. A poll after legalization might be interesting, but it is likely irrelevant. Entrenched law makes public opinion irrelevant.
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 24, 2014, 09:41:49 pm
Just because the U.S. is currently a secular society doesn't mean it should be.

Which sect other than yours would you prefer established the rules by which we are all to go?

We have a secular society because we could never decide upon a dominant religion.
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Clinton beats Christie by 21 on: July 24, 2014, 08:10:48 pm
(posted elsewhere)
 
It is a severe outlier by Q standards.

I know! Hillary Clinton seems highly likely to win the state, but perhaps by 5% over one of the stronger R candidates. A margin greater than 10% suggests that

(1) Florida has become about as strong a D state as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,  which makes no sense in view of recent polls -- some available within the last couple of weeks. If Florida were that strongly D, then Governor Rick Scott would be staring into a landslide loss, which he is not doing even in a Q poll of the Governorship.

(2) Hillary Clinton has basically revived the Jimmy Carter coalition and grafted it onto the Obama coalition. For that to make sense I would need to see Clinton winning just about everything in the South. Carter won the state by 5% in 1976 (his fifteenth-best state); Obama won it by less than 3% in 2008. Florida has usually been a tough state for Democratic Presidential nominees to win; it was the second-weakest win for LBJ in 1964. Bill Clinton, the strongest Democratic nominee since LBJ in a Presidential election, barely lost it in 1992 and won it by 6% in 1996. We know about Florida in 2000.


Possible -- but not likely. It's not likely to contradict recent polls.

(3) Something has happened, all of a sudden, to mess up Republican chances for election or re-election nationwide. Has anyone seen anything to create such an effect? Such would show in approval ratings for President Obama, which remain awful. The Malaysian jetliner being shot down is just about neutral news for American politics.

(4) International concerns have begun to trump other concerns, and Hillary Clinton is in an excellent position to become  more desirable. Q shows the favorability of Hillary Clinton very stable -- and so are the ratings of favorability for potential R rivals. There is nothing there.  The downing of the Malaysian jetliner in dangerous airspace is just about neutral news for American politics.

Barack Obama's approval rating in Florida is in the range in which, were he running for re-election, he would barely win the state again.

Quinnipiac is usually one of my preferred pollsters, in view of its prior achievements, but this time the results seem terribly out of line. We can count on seeing frequent polls about Florida hereon. In fact, I expect to see lots of polls from neighboring Georgia  from now until November because of hotly-contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. Show Hillary Clinton up 5% against just about everyone in Georgia, and I will accept this Q poll. Show another pollster concurring with these results and I will accept it.

Pollsters can have bad days -- or bad samples -- any day. That includes Quinnipiac, which rarely has them.

If you want my assessment of the 2016 Presidential election so far -- Hillary Clinton has gone from being marginally qualified to be President in 2008 to being one of the strongest candidates that we have known for a long time. Should she win Florida 55-45 she wins nationwide at least 58-42 with over 400 electoral votes -- 440 if she gets Texas, which would probably be the closest state in that scenario.
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 24, 2014, 08:05:24 pm
Quinnipiac is a well regarded and longtime pollster that was closest to the actual result in Florida in 2012. I'm not sure why you'd ignore them just because you think it's an outlier.

It is a severe outlier by Q standards. 

I know! Hillary Clinton seems highly likely to win the state, but perhaps by 5% over one of the stronger R candidates. A margin greater than 10% suggests that

(1) Florida has become about as strong a D state as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,  which makes no sense in view of recent polls -- some available within the last couple of weeks. If Florida were that strongly D, then Governor Rick Scott would be staring into a landslide loss, which he is not doing even in a Q poll of the Governorship.

(2) Hillary Clinton has basically revived the Jimmy Carter coalition and grafted it onto the Obama coalition. For that to make sense I would need to see Clinton winning just about everything in the South. Carter won the state by 5% in 1976 (his fifteenth-best state); Obama won it by less than 3% in 2008. Florida has usually been a tough state for Democratic Presidential nominees to win; it was the second-weakest win for LBJ in 1964. Bill Clinton, the strongest Democratic nominee since LBJ in a Presidential election, barely lost it in 1992 and won it by 6% in 1996. We know about Florida in 2000.


Possible -- but not likely. It's not likely to contradict recent polls.

(3) Something has happened, all of a sudden, to mess up Republican chances for election or re-election nationwide. Has anyone seen anything to create such an effect? Such would show in approval ratings for President Obama, which remain awful. The Malaysian jetliner being shot down is just about neutral news for American politics.

(4) International concerns have begun to trump other concerns, and Hillary Clinton is in an excellent position to become  more desirable. Q shows the favorability of Hillary Clinton very stable -- and so are the ratings of favorability for potential R rivals. There is nothing there.  The downing of the Malaysian jetliner in dangerous airspace is just about neutral news for American politics. 

Barack Obama's approval rating in Florida is in the range in which, were he running for re-election, he would barely win the state again. 

Quinnipiac is usually one of my preferred pollsters, in view of its prior achievements, but this time the results seem terribly out of line. We can count on seeing frequent polls about Florida hereon. In fact, I expect to see lots of polls from neighboring Georgia  from now until November because of hotly-contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. Show Hillary Clinton up 5% against just about everyone in Georgia, and I will accept this Q poll. Show another pollster concurring with these results and I will accept it.

Pollsters can have bad days -- or bad samples -- any day. That includes Quinnipiac, which rarely has them.

If you want my assessment of the 2016 Presidential election so far -- Hillary Clinton has gone from being marginally qualified to be President in 2008 to being one of the strongest candidates that we have known for a long time. Should she win Florida 55-45 she wins nationwide at least 58-42 with over 400 electoral votes -- 440 if she gets Texas, which would probably be the closest state in that scenario.
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 24, 2014, 05:18:12 pm
Florida voters back Clinton over Bush 49 - 42 percent in the 2016 White House race. The Democrat tops other Republicans by wider margins:

    53 - 39 percent over Rubio;
    53 - 37 percent over Paul;
    54 - 33 percent over Christie;
    51 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Independent voters back Clinton over Bush by a narrow 45 - 41 percent. Against other Republicans, her lead among independent voters is 16 to 20 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2063

This is beyond belief. This suggests a complete political collapse by the Republican Party in Florida, which suggests a complete collapse by the Republican Party nationwide. I can at best say that I suspend my acceptance of this poll. Recent polls show Hillary Clinton up 5% or so in Florida.

The 54-33 lead over Christie looks like a misprint; I might believe 54-43. I would need to see corroboration in other states. Recent polls in Florida show Hillary Clinton up by 5% or so over non-joke candidates (Cruz, Santorum, Rubio) in Florida. She's not above 50% in such states as Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

If she is up 10% and near 50% in states generally similar to Florida in voting patterns (Ohio is the only good analogue for Florida) I can accept this. No way is Florida one of the strongest-D states in America. If it were, then Governor Rick Scott would be crashing and burning.

Of course, now that the primary contests for the Republicans are settled in Georgia, we could be seeing some corroboration.

No change-- for now.

     




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 24, 2014, 08:26:26 am
He can run, but he makes less sense than Krusty the Klown.
142  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 23, 2014, 10:44:28 pm
Now that the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Georgia are set, we ought to see some polls from Georgia.
143  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: July 23, 2014, 10:09:09 pm

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker, Burke tied in Wisconsin governor’s race
July 23, 2014

Quote
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds that the Wisconsin governor’s race remains a dead heat, with Republican Gov. Scott Walker receiving the support of 46 percent of registered voters and Democratic challenger Mary Burke receiving 45 percent support. Eight percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they would support. Fewer than 1 percent say they will vote for someone else.

........

Approval of Walker’s handing of his job as governor stands at 47 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. In May, approval was 49 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. In March, 47 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved.

.......

John Doe investigation

In the wake of the release of court documents concerning an investigation by prosecutors into possible campaign finance law violations, known as a “John Doe” proceeding, 75 percent of voters say they have heard or read about the investigation while 24 percent say they have not. Of those who have heard, 54 percent say it is “just more politics” while 42 percent say it is “really something serious.” In October 2012, 76 percent had heard of a “John Doe” investigation at that time, with 46 percent saying it was “just more politics” and 45 percent saying it was “really something serious.”
 


1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[/quote]
144  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 23, 2014, 10:02:39 pm
Marquette University, Wisconsin

Quote
Opinion on same-sex marriage is little changed in the wake of a June federal trial court ruling striking down a Wisconsin constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Fifty-six percent of voters say they would vote to repeal the ban if they could, while 37 percent would keep it. When asked in March, before the court ruling, 59 percent said they would repeal the amendment while 36 percent would keep it in place.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How Americans Feel About Religious Groups: The Jews Rated the Highest on: July 23, 2014, 04:13:45 pm
Judaism does not proselytize. It is no obvious threat to the religious beliefs of anyone else.
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 89-year-old former Auschwitz guard arrested in Philadelphia on: July 23, 2014, 04:10:16 pm
Hideki Tojo was Prime Minister of Japan during most of its war with the US. He was convicted of sundry crimes against peace, crimes against humanity, and conventional war crimes, for which he was sentenced to die by hanging and was so executed.

Japan was undeniably a major power during WWII.

George W. Bush is a war criminal, by the way. Unlike previous Presidents from Nixon to Clinton he has stayed in the US and not ventured to foreign countries since his term ended.
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 23, 2014, 01:20:39 pm
Virginia, Roanoake College

Hillary Clinton holds significant and very similar leads over Republicans Chris Christie (44%-34%), Rand Paul (47%-37%), and Paul Ryan (47%-38%).

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/News_Archive/RC_Poll_July_2014_Election_poll.htm

There's a partial poll by Gravis Marketing for right-wing Human Events, showing Jeb Bush up 49-39 on Hillary Clinton. It would change nothing even if I accepted it.


Nothing on Huckabee or Jeb Bush, but we have plenty of polls involving him.

If Virginia is a quick call for the Democrat, then the election is settled.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




[/quote]
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 22, 2014, 07:42:27 pm
Survey USA, Florida

Quote
* Hillary Clinton 49%.
* Chris Christie 38%.

* Chris Christie 48%.
* Joe Biden 39%.

* Hillary Clinton 46%.
* Rand Paul 42%.

* Rand Paul 47%.
* Joe Biden 39%.

* Hillary Clinton 53%.
* Marco Rubio 39%.

* Marco Rubio 46%.
* Joe Biden 43%.

* Hillary Clinton 47%.
* Jeb Bush 41%.

* Jeb Bush 47%.
* Joe Biden 38%
.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9879b1f3-f54d-4ae5-ba27-5a1b5207710a
 
Nothing on Huckabee, but we have plenty of polls involving him.

If Florida is a quick call for the Democrat, then the election is settled.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



149  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Gravis Marketing: Gov. Branstad (R) up 8 on: July 22, 2014, 04:38:35 pm
It's for right-wing Human Events, so it is basically an internal poll. It is likely that a once-commanding lead for Branstad has shrunk significantly.
150  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Survey USA: Crist's Lead Expanding on: July 22, 2014, 04:36:47 pm
At this point a 6% lead is hard to shake.
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