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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The so-called "Demise" of the Republican Party is way overblown on: July 01, 2015, 08:00:30 pm
The Republicans keep nominating extremists, which is great for ideological consistency... but demographic realities will hurt the Party. The aging constituency of the Tea Party implies a steady erosion of support for Republican pols. 
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 01, 2015, 07:55:37 pm
After the fact in Michigan...

With gay marriage legal in Michigan now voters want to take the next step and ban discrimination against LGBT people in employment and housing. 68% support a law making it illegal to fire or deny housing in Michigan because someone is gay, lesbian, or transgender to only 25% who are opposed. 56% of voters say they would 'strongly' support such legislation.

....

Voters are also quite opposed to two anti-gay GOP legislative efforts going on right now. Only
34% think adoption agencies that receive money from the state should be allowed to deny
services to families they say violate their religious  beliefs, with 52% saying they should not be
allowed to do that. Independents are particularly opposed to that legislation at 29/55.  

....

There's even less support for the proposal to make  it so that only clergy can perform weddings in the state, making it harder for same sex couples to get married. Only 16% of voters support that to 69% who are opposed and the opposition on that is bipartisan...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_7115.pdf
128  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Hillary leads everyone, Paul and Walker closest on: July 01, 2015, 04:06:25 pm
Does any sensible person still believe FoX Propaganda Channel?
129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / CCSF: Supreme Court rules SSM a legal right on: July 01, 2015, 04:03:57 pm
Sadness is less about the prospect of SSM than what they're going to try to do to religious rights now.

If this were truly about "love winning," we wouldn't have such sore winners essentially mocking others' fears.

Love won; bigotry and superstition lost.

Deal with your own fears. What do you fear? That people will be pressured into same-sex marriages? That gays and lesbians will abuse children under their care?

I can interpret same-sex marriage as pro-family, allowing many loving families that otherwise might never have formed or might have had at most shadowy existence to form. I also recognize that many loveless marriages contracted to conceal the homosexuality of one of the partners will not be so commonplace.

130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The so-called "Demise" of the Republican Party is way overblown on: July 01, 2015, 03:59:20 pm
Democrats are going to have the Millennial politicians who learned their political techniques from Barack Obama. That's a very good model.

What are those techniques? Racial division/agitation/fearmongering?

Has anyone played up race less than Barack Obama? Has he used race as a ground for patronage? Has he excused bad behavior by blacks? Because he is black, he really can't get away with much. All in all that is a good thing.  
 

131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The so-called "Demise" of the Republican Party is way overblown on: July 01, 2015, 03:27:53 pm
Democrats are going to have the Millennial politicians who learned their political techniques from Barack Obama. That's a very good model.

Millennial adults will likely vote for Millennial politicians at the expense of Tea Party types. Such will be big trouble for the GOP.
132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Governor LePage endorses Christie on: July 01, 2015, 02:43:00 pm
An unwelcome endorsement, surely.
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: July 01, 2015, 06:50:25 am
This is not broadening the map, this is just going back to the standard 2004 winning map.

Republicans then need to figure why they have lost Virginia twice. They have not won without Virginia in a Presidential election since 1924. They had lost Virginia only once between 1952 and 2004 (the LBJ blowout).
134  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: June 30, 2015, 10:56:03 pm
Portman approval rating: 49%-28% positive


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06222015_Sp52rg.pdf

...but Strickland is ahead.

Toomey has a 51-28 percent approval rating.
Obama has a negative job approval rating in the state (42-55).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06222015_Sp52rg.pdf

What huge swings we see with approvals of Senator Toomey!




Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40      3      0
40-44    2      0
45-49    2      2
50-54    3     0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2




135  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: June 30, 2015, 10:52:18 pm
Portman approval rating: 49%-28% positive


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06222015_Sp52rg.pdf

...but Strickland is ahead.




Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       4      0
40-44    3      0
45-49    1      2
50-54    2      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2




[/quote]
136  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Ogden & Fry: Illinois Senate - Duckworth beating Kirk by 17 on: June 30, 2015, 10:46:12 pm
I can't use this one.
137  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: See things from the other's perspective on: June 30, 2015, 07:38:52 pm
The problem with the white South is that it has no clue that it has no affinity to any other part of the world -- not even in the United States. No other part of the world tries to imitate it. It's unique... but for all the wrong reasons.

I can imagine people trying to study the culture of other peoples of European origin... including of course other parts of the United States.

 
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Hillary leads everyone, Paul and Walker closest on: June 30, 2015, 06:42:00 pm
Interesting that PPP is expecting Walker to be the nominee- he is the only one ever tested against non-Clinton Democrats.  But, this poll definitely suggests that Michigan could be in play (keep in mind that GOP numbers will improve when there is a candidate).

Don't be so sure. Republicans have nobody who has a strong appeal to Michigan.

The state has too many blacks and union members to be easy picking for a Republican. The last time that the Republicans won Michigan in a close election was 1976 -- with Gerald Ford.
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Hillary leads everyone, Paul and Walker closest on: June 30, 2015, 06:38:29 pm
Michigan typically is very close a year and a half before the election, but it typically closes hard late for Democrats in Presidential years.
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: June 30, 2015, 06:36:52 pm
PPP, Michigan


Clinton (D).................... 45%
Paul (R)....................... 42%

Clinton (D)................... 46%
Rubio (R)...................... 40%

Clinton (D)................... 44%
Christie (R).................. 38%

Clinton (D).................. 46%
Walker (R).................. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Huckabee (R)............. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Bush (R).................... 38%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Carson (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Fiorina (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Cruz (R).................... 39%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Trump (R)................. 39%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






141  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 30, 2015, 06:20:29 pm
Just the fascination with people reinventing themselves, something that many Americans fantasize about doing. Great story, and weird.  
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 30, 2015, 05:48:19 pm
I have known black people with lighter skin than hers. The hair? Do you know of any white person with hair naturally like that? She makes Mariah Carey look unambiguously white.


 
Quote
Rachel Dolezal says she got her skin tone from the sun, but we've learned it's probably more sprays than rays.

Our tanning sources tell us ... Rachel was a loyal customer at Palm Beach Tan in Spokane, Washington. We're told she was a fan of Mystic Tan ... a brand of spray tan.

Palm Beach Tan offers light, medium and dark shades. Our sources wouldn't tell us which Rachel chose, but a spray tan expert tells us Rachel's a medium girl.

https://www.tmz.com/2015/06/17/rachel-dolezal-spray-tanning-salon-black/
143  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: President of Spokane NAACP outed as white imposter on: June 30, 2015, 05:40:50 pm
I have known black people with lighter skin than hers. The hair? Do you know of any white person with hair naturally like that? She makes Mariah Carey look unambiguously white.


 
Quote
Rachel Dolezal says she got her skin tone from the sun, but we've learned it's probably more sprays than rays.

Our tanning sources tell us ... Rachel was a loyal customer at Palm Beach Tan in Spokane, Washington. We're told she was a fan of Mystic Tan ... a brand of spray tan.

Palm Beach Tan offers light, medium and dark shades. Our sources wouldn't tell us which Rachel chose, but a spray tan expert tells us Rachel's a medium girl.

https://www.tmz.com/2015/06/17/rachel-dolezal-spray-tanning-salon-black/
144  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should churches that don't perform gay marriages lose their tax-exempt status? on: June 30, 2015, 01:21:09 pm
"Do not have sexual relations with a man as one does with a woman; it is an abomination." -Leviticus 18:22.....Its a Abomination = ObamaNation... America is going to go through judgment soon just like Sodom and Gomorrah went through judgment and was destroyed.

This is the sort of judgment that I wish that the United States of America avoid.



Neither Churchill nor FDR claimed to be God.
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: See things from the other's perspective on: June 30, 2015, 11:57:24 am
If I were in that position I would wonder why the rest of the world just does not understand 'my' culture and 'my' values.
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Webb takes federalist position on gay marriage UPDATE: not anymore on: June 30, 2015, 05:55:03 am
The reasonable position, one that many Republicans (some running for President)  have yet to take, is to accept the ruling of the US Supreme Court as definitive. It was possible before the Supreme Court decision to oppose SSM without making a fool of oneself -- but not now.
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: June 30, 2015, 05:49:44 am
Hispanics aren't interested in conservatism. How much money needs to be pissed away in California and New Mexico before the GOP gets that through its thick skull?

Middle-class Hispanics may be no more liberal in 2016 than they were in 2000. But there are different forms and expressions of conservatism, and Republicans offer the wrong sort of conservatism.  Middle-class Hispanics are, first of all, well-educated. They are arch-conservatives on educational content. But what does that mean? They insist upon high-quality education for their kids. They have no use for the anti-intellectual demagoguery of the GOP that works well in the rural South. If they own businesses, then those businesses are small entities more likely to see welfare funds more likely to pay the bills than to see taxes as a nemesis.  Add to that, small business and giant entities are not always in harmony on politics, as giant entities are likely to seek to squeeze out small-business competition; giant entities are much more likely to make extraordinary profits through crony capitalism.

Poor Hispanics are more likely to see crime as a menace. They are more likely to do jobs that expose them to the menace of street crime. Republicans used to win voters on fear of crime when liberal Democrats still believed that crime was a consequence of poor social conditions that 'create' crime instead of seeing crime as a personal choice of people with the proclivity to commit crimes. The 'limousine liberal' Democrats used to push the idea that bad conditions fostered crime that even strict law enforcement and determined prosecution could not stop. Those 'limousine liberals' had had a patronizing, but subtly offensive view toward minority groups. Liberals no longer believe that stuff.   
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: June 30, 2015, 05:23:11 am
All of these "expand the map" strategies are ridiculous. Hillary won't win Missouri and Jeb won't win New Mexico (he MAY have a small chance with Martinez as his running mate).

"Expand the map" strategies can work not so much at compelling nominees and Parties to expend money and campaign time in states that would otherwise not seem to be in play.  If Republicans can compel the Clinton campaign to defend Minnesota or New Jersey, then Hillary Clinton has probably lost. On the other side, if the Clinton campaign can compel the Republican campaign to spend money and make campaign appearances in Arizona and Georgia, then the Clinton campaign has won.
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls on: June 30, 2015, 05:19:03 am
Protestant fundamentalism is strong in Missouri but weak in Iowa.  Such makes the difference between northern rural Missouri being strongly R and Iowa being feebly R -- and Democrats winning Iowa and losing Missouri in Presidential elections.

...the most likely tipping-point state in a close 2016 Presidential election is Virginia.
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls on: June 29, 2015, 11:13:57 pm
Basically, the Republican nominee has to collapse for Missouri to be in play for the Democratic nominee.

Sure, Obama conceded Missouri early so that the Democratic Senator could be re-elected... Missouri going for Hillary Clinton implies that she has a near-landslide.
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