Colorado favors gay marriage

-Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/colorado-favors-gay-marriage.html#more

The irony is that Islam is about as illiberal on sexuality as any religious tradition.

In the 25 or so years after WWII, just about anyone with a willingness to do hard, disciplined industrial labor could get a middle income by working in a manufacturing plant. That is over. Scarcity of the fruits of manufacturing are no longer to be exploited for a solid living.   

The key to economic success these days is either

(1) having some freakish talent -- like having an operatic voice that one uses for pop music (Mariah Carey), doing art that appeals to rubes who buy the stuff (Thomas Kinkade)  throwing a 100-mph fastball with motion, being a spray hitter in baseball with power to all fields, or outrunning defensive cornerbacks while carrying a football

(2) being born into the right family

(3) being a highly-successful mobster

(4) enforcing the will of even-higher elites with ruthless brutality as part of the executive elite

 

Remember when SurveyUSA did their 50-state polling in March 2008 with Hillary vs. McCain and Obama vs. McCain (even then Hillary did relatively well in KY, not in this one but in other polls by SUSA from KY), while Obama did already as poorly as on election day or worse - The reverse was the case in CO with Obama doing well and Hillary not so much:

One could not have seen a significant difference between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in March 2008. Results of a Clinton-McCain election would have been close in electoral and popular  votes to what happened because of the economic meltdown late in the campaign season.

Michigan and Wayne, County (much of the latter Detroit)

Barack H. Obama       595,846    72.83%
Willard Mitt Romney      213,814    26.13%



What can you say about Detroit? The Republican Party barely exists there.

Statewide:

Barack H. Obama       2,564,569    54.09%   
Willard Mitt Romney      2,115,256    44.61%     



Michigan without Wayne County:

Willard Mitt Romney      2,102,034
Barack H. Obama       1,860,723



Michigan politics is simple: Democrats run up the Democratic numbers in Greater Detroit or lose. So it is with Illinois and Greater Chicago.    

People are more likely to know about German ancestry than about English ancestry. It is far easier to identify with the most recent immigrants -- especially if those define your culture.

Until I took genealogy seriously and started examining records I thought that I was more German than anything else with much Irish ancestry. Many of the "Germans" are really Swiss, and the "Irish" are Scots-Irish. The English and Welsh parts are bigger than I thought -- a majority. Maternal grandparents that I thought were completely  German as were about half English.

[60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)55-59% medium red (50% saturation)50-54% pink (30% saturation)45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)]

Michigan, EPIC/MRI:

President Barack Obama’s favorability ratings in the April survey are 52% favorable to 44% unfavorable.


http://www.freep.com/article/20130422/NEWS15/304220147/

Favorable/unfavorable, so I can't use it.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[green]

Michigan, EPIC/MRI

The governor’s favorable rating hit a high of 55% in early December. But that was before controversial right-to-work legislation was passed in the raucous final days of the legislative session. Since then, Snyder’s ratings have been slipping. In the April survey, 42% of the people had a favorable view of him, while 46% had an unfavorable view. His job rating was 38% positive to 58% negative.

http://www.freep.com/article/20130422/NEWS15/304220147/


tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

Definitely not (Democrats):

John Edwards, Rod Blagojevich, Jimmy Carter, anyone now in the House of Representatives.

Definitely not (Republicans):

Dick Cheney, the elder Bush, Neil Bush, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Mark Sanford, Larry Craig, Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, Bobby Jindal, Mitch McConnell... anyone now in the House of Representatives

George Voinovich and Richard Lugar would have been good in 2000, but the time for either of them is past.

 

[green]

New Jersey voters approve 67 - 24 percent of the job Christie is doing and say 66 - 26 percent that he deserves reelection. By a 66 - 24 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of the governor.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes--centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1886


tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.


Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".


Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.











[/quote]
[/quote]

[60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)55-59% medium red (50% saturation)50-54% pink (30% saturation)45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey:

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Approve 57%, Disapprove 43%, 5% Don't Know/Undecided

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes--centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1886

Up 3% from March by the same pollster, and approval is now close to the electoral result of 2012 in a strong state for the President. This is by a pollster with a slight R lean.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)




[/quote]

[Clinton]

Colorado checks in:

Q5 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

48% Hillary Clinton
..................................................
44% Marco Rubio
...................................................
8% Not sure



Clinton vs. Rubio




If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans grow again as Hispanics increasingly assimilate and vote like whites.

Republicans will have to abandon the anti-intellectualism that attacks the Hispanic middle class.

[60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)55-59% medium red (50% saturation)50-54% pink (30% saturation)45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)]

Colorado Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

48% Approve

50% Disapprove

3% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_423.pdf



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

Bill Clinton won Colorado only once. Barack Obama is an unusually-good match for Colorado -- about as good a match for Colorado as he is a bad match for Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.   

How quickly people can forget.

All offenses are apparently committed within the United States. There are no foreign connections.

17th Quarter Job Approval Averages, Post-World War II Presidents Elected to Two Terms



For these six twice-elected presidents, their 17th quarter occurred during the first three months of their second term in office. Two other post-World War II presidents -- Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman -- were not elected to a first term but did win election in their own right and served a 17th quarter in office at a different stage of their presidency.

Johnson's 17th quarter came in October 1967-January 1968, during the height of the Vietnam War and at about the time he was deciding whether to seek a second elected term as president. Johnson ultimately decided against doing so, with his flagging popularity likely a factor. His 44.3% 17th quarter average is the lowest of all post-World War II presidents.

Truman ascended to the presidency in April 1945 after Franklin Roosevelt died in the initial months of his fourth term in office. Truman's 17th quarter in office dated from April-June 1949, a few months after he was elected in his own right in 1948. Truman averaged 54.0% approval during his 17th quarter in office.

Obama's Quarterly and Term Averages to Date Are Below Average

From a broader historical perspective, Obama's 49.7% 17th quarter average is below average, ranking in the 40th percentile of all presidential quarters for which Gallup has data since 1945. The historical average approval rating across all presidents since that time is 54%. Obama has averaged 49.2% approval during his entire term in office to date.

As he begins his 18th quarter in office, Obama will hope to buck the historical trend whereby presidents typically see a drop in their approval rating from their 17th to 18th quarter in office. This occurred for all of the seven other post-World War II presidents serving an 18th quarter except Ronald Reagan.

Implications

In many respects, Obama's second term in office is starting off like George W. Bush's. Both won re-election despite approval ratings hovering near 50%. That partly reflects the era in which each has governed, with presidential approval ratings more polarized than ever among Republicans and Democrats. That may put a bit of a cap on how high a president's approval rating can go, if the opposing party's supporters are very unlikely to approve of the president almost regardless of what he does.

In any case, Obama will hope to have a stronger second term than Bush, whose approval rating dropped below 50% during his 18th quarter in office and never went back above it as the war with Iraq dragged on and Bush suffered a series of missteps including the response to Hurricane Katrina and his widely criticized nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. Before his term was out, the nation would see record-high gas prices and the worst financial recession since the Great Depression.

Obama may be in a seemingly more fortunate situation with the worst of the economic collapse seemingly past, the Iraq war over, and the war in Afghanistan winding down. But he still faces significant challenges in trying to address the federal budget deficit and more fully implementing the healthcare reforms he helped pass in 2010.

Eisenhower  69.0
Nixon            60.8
Reagan         58.0
Clinton         57.5
Dubya          50.4
Obama         49.7

If you can see a significant difference between 58.0 and 57.5 or between 50.4 and 49.7, you see something that I can't.    Media are getting harsher upon Presidents.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/162014/obama-approval-back-level-last-week.aspx

[0 District of Columbia 3 D+41 3 3 Hawaii 4 D+20 7 7 Vermont 3 D+16 10 10 NY/RI tie 33 D+11 43 43 MD/MA tie 21 D+10 64 64 CA/ ME-01 tie 56 D+9 120 120 DE/IL tie 23 D+8 143 143 Connecticut 9 D+7 150 150 ME*/NJ tie 16 D+6 169 169 OR/WA tie 19 D+5 188 188 MI/NM tie 21 D+4 209 209 MN/NV/WI/ME-02 tie 27 D+2 235 235 CO/IA/NH/PA tie 39 D+1 272 272 Virginia 13 even 285 285 Ohio 18 R+1 303 303 Florida 29 R+2 332 332 North Carolina 15 R+3 347 347 IN/MO/NE-02 tie 21 R+5 368 368 Georgia 16 R+6 384 384 AZ/MT tie 14 R+7 391 392 South Carolina 9 R+8 400 400 Mississippi 6 R+9 409 409 ND/SD/TX/NE-01 tie 45 R+10 454 454 AS/KS/LA/NE*/TN tie 30 R+12 484 484 KY/WV tie 13 R+13 502 502 AL/AR tie 15 R+14 517 517 Idaho 4 R+18 521 521 Oklahoma 7 R+19 528 528 UT /WY tie 9 R+22 537 537 NE-03 1 R+23 538]

Or...


Beginning with the Democratic nominee winning nothing to winning everything:

EV                                              
w/o          State/District                       EV          Cook PVI                    EV with            

   0          District of Columbia               3            D+41                                3
    3          Hawaii                                   4           D+20                                 7
    7          Vermont                                3            D+16                               10
   10         NY/RI tie                              33           D+11                                43
   43         MD/MA tie                            21           D+10                                64
   64         CA/ ME-01 tie                      56             D+9                              120
  120        DE/IL tie                              23             D+8                              143
  143        Connecticut                           9             D+7                              150
  150       ME*/NJ tie                           16             D+6                              169
  169        OR/WA tie                            19            D+5                               188
  188         MI/NM tie                             21            D+4                               209
  209        MN/NV/WI/ME-02  tie           27            D+2                               235
 235        CO/IA/NH/PA tie                   39           D+1                                272
  272        Virginia                                13           even                               285
  285        Ohio                                    18             R+1                               303
  303        Florida                                 29            R+2                                332
  332        North Carolina                     15            R+3                                347
  347        IN/MO/NE-02 tie                  21            R+5                                368
  368        Georgia                               16            R+6                                384
  384        AZ/MT tie                              14           R+7                                391
  392        South Carolina                       9           R+8                                400
  400        Mississippi                             6            R+9                                409
 409        ND/SD/TX/NE-01 tie              45           R+10                              454
  454        AS/KS/LA/NE*/TN tie             30           R+12                              484
  484        KY/WV tie                              13           R+13                              502
  502        AL/AR tie                                15          R+14                              517
  517        Idaho                                    4            R+18                               521
  521        Oklahoma                              7            R+19                              528
  528        UT /WY tie                             9            R+22                               537
  537        NE-03                                    1            R+23                              538

*Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes with two at large and one each as the Congressional district vote. Only two electoral votes for either state are shown in the sequence.

Subtract the total from 538 for the Republican result.  

Assumptions? Sure -- that the states will line up as they did in 2008 and 2012 in 2016, which will likely be an absurdity.    

[Clinton]

NC is wrong. Hillary is ahead.

Correction made here:

H. Clinton v. Christie



Clinton vs. Rubio




If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

April 11-14, 2013
Survey of 601 North Carolina voters


Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
49% Hillary Clinton
..........
42%  Marco Rubio
...........
9% Not sure
..................

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

52% Hillary Clinton
..........
40% Rand Paul
...............
8% Not sure

So much for speculation.

The last Republican nominee to win the Presidency without North Carolina was Dwight Eisenhower.

Everything would have to go right for him and wrong for the eventual Republican nominee. Call it an inside straight. If he were going to be President, then he had opportunities from 1988 to 2004. '88, '92, '00, and '04.

He must be in good health without qualification. He must face an unusually weak Republican nominee for President or one who proves 'damaged goods' after being nominated. Barack Obama must be widely recognized as one of the better Presidents in American history at the time. It would not be enough for President Obama to be as good as Dwight Eisenhower; he would have to be seen about as good as Eisenhower is seen today. "Somewhat successful", like Bill Clinton in 2000?  Were that enough we would have had President Al Gore... and most likely the Twin Towers still standing as well.   

 

Blank map.



Red is for Democrats and blue for Republicans. Even is white. Districts of Maine and Nebraska will be colored to match the PVI for the respective districts for 2014.  



Even -- 10% yellow (which is white)
   +1 or  +2    20% saturation
   +3 or  +4    30% saturation
   +5 or  +6    40% saturation
   +7 to  +9    60% saturation
+10 to +15    70% saturation
+16 or more  90% saturation

Extremes are DC (D+40) and the Third Congressional District of Nebraska (+23). Extremes for States are Hawaii (D+20) and a tie between Utah and Wyoming (R+20).

I don't really see that many swing states in there. Take GA for example. In 2000 it had a GOP lean of 12.2 (Bush won by 11.7 points, lost by 0.5 nationally). In the most recent election it still had a GOP lean of 11.7 (Romney won by 7.8, lost nationally by 3.9). So not that much of a change. I'd say the polarization in some of these states is too set in its place and only some sort of massive influx of Hispanics and northerners can upset it. I suppose that means TX may at some point be blue and Montana could be an upset special with a Democrat from the state on the ticket.

The 2008 and 2012 elections have been extremely polarized. That could be Barack Obama, whether people depend upon or reject FoX News Channel, GOP front groups, race... whether visceral issues matter that much in a subsequent election is to be seen in 2016.