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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 10, 2015, 12:56:34 pm
PPP, Wisconsin:

The state in which Scott Walker is Governor does not really like him (approval 43%, disapproval 52%), and against Hillary Clinton he is down 52-43%. Against other Republicans she is close to 50% and ahead by at least 6%.

Scott Walker does not have a favorite-son advantage over other Republicans in Wisconsin. Wisconsin is now at most on the fringe of contention for Republicans for President. Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee do better against Hillary than Bush or Christie (alleged Establishment candidates).

Indeed, both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Walker would hold leads, if within the margin of error, against Scott Walker in Wisconsin. If Walker is going to lose Wisconsin 53-47, then the only Rust Belt state that he can win is Indiana. Just look at the Ohio polls. 

Wisconsin is split on the Right-to-Work legislation that the Wisconsin State legislature passed and Scott Walker signed by a 44-42 margin.


I guess you were VERY excited about that WI poll.

I was. I also corrected the error. Thank you.
127  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 10, 2015, 11:32:49 am
PPP, Wisconsin:

The state in which Scott Walker is Governor does not really like him (approval 43%, disapproval 52%), and against Hillary Clinton he is down 52-43%. Against other Republicans she is close to 50% and ahead by at least 6%.

Scott Walker does not have a favorite-son advantage over other Republicans in Wisconsin. Wisconsin is now at most on the fringe of contention for Republicans for President. Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee do better against Hillary than Bush or Christie (alleged Establishment candidates).

Indeed, both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren would hold leads, if within the margin of error, against Scott Walker in Wisconsin. If Walker is going to lose Wisconsin 53-47, then the only Rust Belt state that he can win is Indiana. Just look at the Ohio polls.  

Wisconsin is split on the Right-to-Work legislation that the Wisconsin State legislature passed and Scott Walker signed by a 44-42 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WI_31015.pdf

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more









128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: March 10, 2015, 10:31:42 am
Greater St. Louis needs a new Nelson Mandela.
129  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wisconsin Megathread: 2014 Aftermath and 2016 Senate Speculation on: March 10, 2015, 10:25:25 am
Feingold lost because he was a bad Senator and Johnson ran one of the best campaigns ever.  I wonder if Johnson can replicate some of that 2010 perfection.  It is hard to tell because Johnson isn't a politician and has acted as such since he won and he may have been the perfect man at the perfect time, not a amazing campaigner ...at anytime.   

Corporate money shouted in 2010 and 2014. It won.

It's the Koch syndicate that managed the general fight to transform the USA into a plutocratic oligarchy. Right-wing politicians who obeyed the money won. Now that more Americans know what is stake things can be different in 2016. Mediocrities win in wave elections and can get ousted in the next election.

They had better be, or America might be 'exceptional' mostly in having life-threatening poverty within the First World.
130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What is the most boring state in America? on: March 09, 2015, 11:01:18 pm
For rural scenery -- northern Illinois. If I must drive on 80, 55, 57, or 70 I need the music on loud and strong. Even the Tri-State Tollway goes through an ugly scar of urban sprawl.

I'm guessing that 39, 72, 74, and 90 are much the same.

Even in Nebraska one has the gallery forest along the Platte River along Interstate 80 from about Grand Island west to North Platte.

John Steinbeck once said that the most boring route in America is "US 80/90" (he really meant Interstate 80 and 90) across Indiana and Ohio -- The Ohio Turnpike and the Indiana Toll Road.

The worst single route for boredom is US 77 in far south Texas between Kingsville and the Lower Rio Grande Valley -- the same unending scene of nothingness but semi-desert vegetation on either side, a single-track railroad to the right of the southbound lanes, no hills, no curves, and no towns.
131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WI: Walker signs "right-to-work" legislation on: March 09, 2015, 10:48:20 pm
The next step is a national Duty-to-Starve law. Then legislation to allow employers to avoid having to deal with unions.

132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate Republicans write a letter to Iran on: March 09, 2015, 10:45:25 pm
It's a bad idea to tie the President's hands on foreign policy for a little temporary power.
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush: Net Neutrality decision is "crazy" on: March 09, 2015, 03:27:20 pm
Does he honestly think this position will help him in the primaries? It's definitely not going to help him at all in the GE.

Republicans are likely less tech-savvy than Republicans, and unlikely to use the Internet for diverse sources of data. I'm guessing that unless a Republican has more of a libertarian streak than a corporatist streak, there is little to distinguish them on this issue.

 
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush: Net Neutrality decision is "crazy" on: March 09, 2015, 11:27:42 am
Jeb has much the same advisers that his brother had. Beware; those people have yet to show that they have learned anything.
135  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker/Rubio vs. Kaine/Klobuchar on: March 08, 2015, 01:31:25 pm
If anything, it would be Amy Klobuchar with the Democratic nomination if something happens to Hillary Clinton. She would not lose Iowa.

136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Don Young (R-AK): Wolves could be used to solve homelessness on: March 08, 2015, 10:31:31 am
There has never been a  fatal, unprovoked attack by a healthy wolf upon a human being in North America. Cougars, alligators, bears, and dogs (surprise on the latter!) have killed without provocation.

137  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Webb vs Walker on: March 07, 2015, 08:31:45 pm
By Wednesday (3/11/2015) we shall see whether Scott Walker has won Wisconsin over to his right-wing, Corporatist model of government. We can see whether he is the new Ronald Reagan or the new Barry Goldwater.  The test will be whether he is more popular than other Republicans as potential nominees for President in Wisconsin.

The Favorite Son effect is real for someone well received in his own state -- maybe better understood there than elsewhere (think of George McGovern in South Dakota, one of his strongest states in 1972 or Goldwater in Arizona in 1964) or seen as more competent in his home state (Carter in 1980) than almost everywhere else. It could be weak in a max-out situation (Kerry in 2004 in Massachusetts, Obama in Illinois in 2008 and 2012). It is the difference between Gerald Ford winning Michigan and losing Ohio in 1976.

It does not help someone seen derogatorily in his own state -- let us say Santourm in Pennsylvania.
138  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Justice Dept. Preparing to Bring Corruption Charges Up Against Sen. Bob Menendez on: March 07, 2015, 07:33:50 pm
Damn this corrupt administration going after Democrats!

Now you know why the corrupt Chicago Machine wanted Barack Obama out of Chicago politics. Can you imagine him as a rackets-busting prosecutor, local, state, or federal? He would have been a terror.

He could have made much more money as a corrupt ward boss. I'd say he chose a better way to do politics.
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will we have a President who served in Vietnam? on: March 07, 2015, 07:29:13 pm
The Vietnam vets are getting old -- 65 years old or so. I see nobody since John McCain (who was in his 30s and 40s during the Vietnam War, as was often the case with aviators) touting his combat in the Vietnam War. The Vietnam War has not been good for political exploitation.

A hero general? General Norman Schwartzkopf chose to avoid partisan politics. He is no longer available, as he is no longer alive.

The next war vet to use wartime service as part of his appeal will involve one of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- maybe.   
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What will be the first presidential election not involving a Baby Boomer? on: March 07, 2015, 07:22:45 pm
I thought that Obama was still technically part of the later half of the baby boom.

According to Howe and Strauss, he is Generation X. I post heavily on a Forum related to generational theory as an aspect of history, and I concur that Barack Obama is no Boomer.
Howe and Strauss cut the line between Boomers born in 1960 and X born in 1961.   His temperament is more like that of either Truman or Eisenhower, acting something like one of the two Presidents of the Lost Generation in their 60s, an "I've been burned" type who distrusts ideology of any extreme. That type is extremely cautious. The underworld-style hit on Osama bin Laden is clearly not Boom. If he must choose a solution out of the Capone playbook because Lincoln and FDR offer no solution, he can learn from Capone without being Capone.
 

Obama is a pragmatist above all else. He realizes that high-sounding principles can fail either due to their faults, especially being used to mistreat pariahs, exploit the helpless, or violate the divide between reason and nonsense. 
   
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: March 07, 2015, 06:55:54 pm
Wisconsin is yellow

Correction noted. Thank you.
142  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy-Marist Poll: Hillary starts to feel the heat already on: March 07, 2015, 06:54:40 pm
At this point I see nothing to indicate that the electorate is any less polarized than it was at any time since 2006. that so far is the electoral news.
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP - Clinton leads Bush and Walker in Ohio on: March 07, 2015, 11:05:40 am
This is a poll for OH Dems.

In line with other polls of Ohio -- and adding only Walker.
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy-Marist Poll: Hillary starts to feel the heat already on: March 07, 2015, 11:04:42 am
So, Hillary already dropped 5% or so this week compared to previous polls and she'll likely drop another 5% right after she announces her run.

Creating a tied race already.

And in the end she might lose too (maybe even in a landslide).

I told you Hillary-fetishists early about this, but you were not listening ...

You are absolutely right. But they are still not going to believe this. They think that no Republican can win in 2016 because of demographics, because she is a Clinton, because of the Blue Wall, because she is a woman, because Walker is an union hater who suppresses the vote (muh backlash), because Bush is a Bush,  because Paul/Carson/Cruz are nutjobs and extremists, because ...... who knows. It's just inevitable.

Republicans can win the Presidential election, and hold both Houses of Congress in 2016. But that depends upon Hillary Clinton melting down politically and no Democrat being able to take her place and win -- and of course the maintenance of a political climate like that of 2010 and 2014. If that happens... you already have the material for the first chapters of The Decline and Fall of the American Empire in your hands. the first stage of Decline and Fall is that America becomes a nasty place to live for all but the elites. America begins to get a brain drain as other countries have more attractive opportunities for their kids than being migrant farm laborers, domestic servants, and sweatshop workers.

I hope that we can do better.


Quote
Having said that, that doesn't mean that 2016 will be easy for the GOP. Hillary still has the advantage in 2016, whether one likes it or not. She has a much easier path to get to 270 EV, she has the better strategists and she will do anything to win. Whether it means portraying Walker as a racist, far-right extremist or tearing up at the National Convention... If the GOP finds a great way to respond to her attacks (do the exact opposite of what Romney did) and defines Hillary,the party CAN win. Well, the fact that we are talking about a close race ALREADY is encouraging for the GOP.

I don't see Walker as a racist; the rest is true. I can see him losing the Blue Wall and most swing states. If he can't win his own state he must win an inside straight.

The Romney campaign did attack President Obama -- but as the election showed, not on things that mattered. Romney lost because he was too much of a narcissist for enough people to trust him. But remember -- Scott Walker is a moderate on nothing. He can be defeated by showing him as an extremist who will make life miserable for people not already filthy-rich.   
145  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Walker beat Hillary? on: March 07, 2015, 12:01:39 am
Scott Walker is so polarizing that his floor and his ceiling will be very close.

He wins if America has another evangelical or fundamentalist mass conversion like that of the 1970s and 1980s... possible but hardly predictable. He will win the evangelical and fundamentalist Christian, except among blacks (who can separate religion from economic interests handily) vote very easily.

On the other side he will lose secular voters as completely as he will win the evangelical and fundamentalist vote. To his benefit the secular vote is much smaller than the evangelical and fundamentalist vote. He will get all former Confederate states except perhaps Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida -- but any one of those ensures a Clinton victory.

He must avoid contradicting himself. If he says one thing in Columbus, Georgia and its diametric opposite in Columbus, Ohio, then he will be exposed as a liar or a fool.

Inside the Blue Wall, people will have to be desperate to vote for him in majority numbers. They would need to believe that working to exhaustion for near-starvation wages is better than the alternative of a looming Depression. Does anyone want a return to the economic realities of early capitalism as Charles Dickens and Karl Marx so masterfully portrayed?

He is not a libertarian. The only 'liberty' that he will offer is the right of employers to avoid dealing with unions, the right to make a workplace more dangerous so long as that speeds up productivity, the right to pollute with impunity, and the right to pay lower taxes -- and for workers, the right to undercut to hold a job. Any privatization is likely to come with the stench of crony capitalism attached.

People will largely have to be desperate to vote for him.

   



 
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 06, 2015, 09:28:47 pm
Quote
WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration thinks the Supreme Court should rule that state bans on same-sex marriage are unconstitutional, according to a brief filed by Justice Department lawyers on Friday. The administration takes the position that those laws violate the equal protection clause of the Constitution.

The amicus brief urges the Supreme Court to find such bans "incompatible with the Constitution" because they "exclude a long-mistreated class of human beings from a legal and social status of tremendous import."


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/06/gay-marriage-supreme-court_n_6819712.html
147  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kansas Secy. of State Kris Kobach: Obama wants to protect black criminals on: March 06, 2015, 09:20:53 pm
What can happen as a party is on the way out from domination of a State or a district? The pols get increasingly strident and extreme. People start looking for alternatives and find them in the next election.
148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Justice Dept. Preparing to Bring Corruption Charges Up Against Sen. Bob Menendez on: March 06, 2015, 09:17:58 pm
If he is a crook he must go.
149  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Don Young (R-AK): Wolves could be used to solve homelessness on: March 06, 2015, 09:15:52 pm
Extreme partisanship demonstrates how a pathological pol can stick around. In a competitive state, Don Young could not be re-elected.

Maybe in 2016, former Senator Mark Begich can beat him if Senator Lisa Murkowski looks invincible. 
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: March 06, 2015, 08:42:09 pm
Kennedy 1960. Carter 1976. Two close elections sixteen years apart.



Kennedy and Carter -- red
not voting -- Carter -- gray (DC)
uncommitted and Carter -- orange (Alabama 5 for Kennedy, 6 for Alabama)
Kennedy and Ford -- green
Nixon and Carter -- yellow
not voting -- Carter -- gray (DC)

Alabama is split Kennedy/Byrd.

Possible interpretation: Kennedy largely put the New Deal Coalition back for the Democrats and Carter in 1976 was the Last Hurrah of the New Deal Coalition.

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