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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Clinton beats Christie by 21 on: August 04, 2014, 07:34:07 am
Romney was slightly ahead in Florida until the last few days -- when his campaign offered the infamous Spanish-language ad that tried to connect Barack Obama to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.  
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 04, 2014, 05:29:59 am
The "sovereign citizens" are from American culture. To become a "sovereign citizen" one must simply intensify the belief in certain threads of American culture. Then one can have a distorted view of American history and adopt an extremist ideology and a proclivity for violence as one is brainwashed.

No. "Sovereign citizens" isn't an issue only in USA. It is an issue in other countries.

The reference is to the United States.
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How the Democratic Party became a tool for Wall-Street on: August 04, 2014, 05:24:53 am
The conspiracy is not the success of commercial enterprise or the material wealth and intellectual property it generates. The conspiracy is incompetent politicians and ignominious bureaucrats who take the citizens money and make it disappear.

I'm not sure how anarchy solves any problems.

Normal business has constraints. Raw deals, no matter how initially lucrative for a devious or corrupt operator, fail. The business that hurts its customers typically sets up its own ruin. I have seen people argue that Wal*Mart, which has sought to undercut its competitors by importing instead of buying American-made stuff, has done great harm to American blue-collar workers that were its core of customers. Wal*Mart isn't a particularly corrupt or devious operator. Wal*Mart now faces a saturated market. It is no longer a growth investment.

Political corruption creates its own problems. The people who do corruption are typically above average in income, so graft ordinarily intensifies the concentration of wealth and income. To be sure, the grafter almost invariably spends what he gets  dishonestly, but such might not always be the case (the grafter sends the corrupt gain to a foreign bank account) ; what the grafter buys could easily be luxury imports that mess up the balance of trade. Consider the Marcos family when it ruled the Philippines; it bled the country and spent heavily on its own indulgence, often in imported luxuries (like Imelda's collection of shoes). If the workers and peasants of the country had gotten a fair share they might have eaten better and been able to wear shoes.

Entities profiteering from corruption are likely to fund the corrupt pols who create the dishonest gain.   Such money finds its way back into the economy -- in an objectionable way for an objectionable purpose.

Money may be transferred from where it does good to where it does no good, but it is unlikely to be destroyed as a reality (barring an effort to destroy currency that might otherwise feed an inflationary tendency). Governments typically replaced damaged currency.
129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: 'Sovereign citizens' now more threatening to US than Islamic extremists on: August 04, 2014, 02:34:34 am
The "sovereign citizens" are from American culture. To become a "sovereign citizen" one must simply intensify the belief in certain threads of American culture. Then one can have a distorted view of American history and adopt an extremist ideology and a proclivity for violence as one is brainwashed.

To be an Islamic extremist one must first be a Muslim. For most Americans such requires a conversion, hardly an easy one if one has a strong tie to any non-Muslim culture, in itself, and then be attracted to thuggery that has a veneer of Islam.

The conversion from "decent person" to "terrorist" is more difficult than a religious conversion.

OK, we are not out of danger if the threat from "sovereign citizens" subsides. Extreme ideologues which Eric Hoffer called True Believers may find themselves disillusioned with a cause after some ruin of the cause or being on the wrong side of some in-fighting, only to find a vacuum to be filled only by another extremist cause. Many fascists and Nazis were renegade socialists and communists. After World War II, rank-and-file members of the fascistic Iron Guard of Romania and the Arrow Cross of Hungary discovered that their proclivity for dirty work made them just the people to do the dirty work for what were recently-tiny Communist Parties. Low-level Nazis were easy marks for Communist brainwashing in the Soviet zone of occupation -- far easier than liberals and democratic socialists. Some Nazis found that their hatred for Jews and Judaism as well as their technical skills could serve Islamic countries hostile to the "Zionist entity".       
130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 4th Circuit Court confirms VA decision in favor of SSM on: August 03, 2014, 06:58:02 pm
So we've got the following courts of appeals hearing arguments in the near future:

6th Circuit- August 6

7th Circuit- August 26

9th Circuit- September 8

That means decisions in each of those courts ~3 months later. That just leaves us waiting on the 5th, 8th and 11th Circuits. We should at least get the 5th Circuit decision by the end of the year. At that point there won't be much left for the Supreme Court to wait around for.



States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:



I do not know the status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, Guam, or the Northern Marianas.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.
131  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state will be closer? on: August 03, 2014, 08:45:56 am
Florida hasn't given any Democrat anything more than a bare margin of victory since 1948, a year in which the Dewey and Thurmond candidacies split the right-leaning vote in Florida.  It has given Republicans huge margins of victory.

The state barely went for LBJ in 1964, dammit! 
132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 03, 2014, 08:41:22 am
But why bring it up? You said SSM states would no longer count in your maps.

I brought it up as an illustration of why approval for SSM need not be shown in states that have legalized it.

It illustrates why approval of SSM in a State that already has it does not belong on the map, and why I did not show it on the map. It is enough that SSM is legal in Massachusetts.

Once entrenched in law, SSM is unlikely to go away.  Of course if there were some legislative attempt or a referendum to abolish SSM, then approval would become relevant again. I do not see that happening in any state with SSM.

Approval is relevant in states in which SSM is not yet fully legal. The map suggests that SSM has more ways in which it can be legalized in such a state as Colorado than in neighboring Wyoming. In Colorado, means of legalizing SSM would seem to include a referendum (it would likely pass), legislative action, refusal of the Governor to appeal, or a definitive decision of the court that denies all appeals. In Wyoming such would take a huge change in public opinion before any method other than a definitive decision beyond any appeal.

Of course the 10th Circuit can establish the law for Colorado and Wyoming simultaneously. Likewise, the legal status of SSM could be decided simultaneously in such disparate states as Michigan and Tennessee together.

As for a Governor refusing to make further appeals -- a Republican Governor can decide that resistance to SSM might be unwise. Governors of Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin might be in that position at some time.  
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP - Very Close Race in CO, unless Christie is Rep. Nominee on: August 02, 2014, 04:42:19 pm
No Democratic nominee for President has won Florida by a 10% margin in a binary choice since FDR in 1944. Not even LBJ in 1964.
134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How the Democratic Party became a tool for Wall-Street on: August 02, 2014, 07:01:56 am
Real hate of working people implies a reversion to the 70-hour workweek and 40-year lifespan of industrial workers as was once the norm. That they are in the more 'socially advanced' retail or food service business is hardly an improvement. All that is necessary is that the social norms mandate that wages be so low that people must work to exhaustion just to get the most basic needs and pay off the grafters.

The only change since the 1960s is that the rest of the world is tired of being agricultural peasants and Europe has grown tired of endless counterproductive wars. The United States is no longer alone at the top of the economic pile.

Lazy half-wit American Democrats can no longer dictate how the world should or shouldn't work anymore. Sadly, Dems still try to command the market to pay more money and deliver more services to their constituency, which makes the rest of the world looks like a more attractive place to do business. Americans suffer, particularly those at the bottom end of the income spectrum.

For real half-wits, try some Republican pols who vote as puppets of the Koch syndicate.

The GOP wants America's economic elite at the apex of power and personal indulgence with the rest of America driven to the worst in wages and working conditions. Such would allegedly create economic growth -- but that only a few could enjoy.

Few people want to lick the boot attached to the feet of the owner who has every right to kick one. Besides, who in his right mind would want to be a helpless peasant?   
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: August 02, 2014, 06:48:56 am
The Boston Globe just had a poll of Massachusetts on acceptance of SSM.

77% favor
17% disfavor
5% don't know

http://c.o0bg.com/rw/Boston/2011-2020/2014/07/31/BostonGlobe.com/Metro/Graphics/Topline.pdf

It seems that the earthquakes, the tidal waves, and Boston being obliterated like Sodom and Gomorrah for acceptance of SSM never happened. SSM seems to be the sort of thing that people accept once it is entrenched.
136  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-Rasmussen: Gov. Snyder (R) up 3 on: August 02, 2014, 06:39:14 am
I don't know how to judge a Rasmussen poll. I'm unwilling to pay for proprietary information from an entity with no track record because it has new management.

A 3-point lead for a Republican incumbent in Michigan is extremely shaky. A strong GOTV drive by Democrats, which usually appears around Labor Day if the race is tight, can often smash an early and puny lead by an incumbent. Count upon Big Labor and the large African-American vote to smash this 3-point R lead into smithereens. Unions will never forgive Rick Snyder for signing a Right to Work (for much less) law. Tea Party pols broke one of the usual agreements of Michigan politics that often allows Republicans a majority in the State House.

Michigan is on the brink of becoming either the Massachusetts of the Midwest or the Oklahoma of the Great Lakes. 
137  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forum Community Guidelines on: August 01, 2014, 01:21:24 pm
What is the rule on copyright violations?
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 01, 2014, 01:14:37 pm
Quote
As for the presidential election in 2016 with alternative candidate match ups, voters were polled “If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, whom would you vote for?”  A potential race between Rand Paul (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D) resulted in Paul holding an 11-point margin over Warren (44% to 33%) with 23% expressing uncertainty.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/california-statewide-polling/

Talk about limited! Only two matchups, and only one of them has any relevance to this polling thread. But it does account for 10.2% of the electoral votes in the US. Like it or not it fills a gap.

Libertarians are a loud lot in California, but they also have a clear ceiling. I guess that Paul would not rise much from 40% of the vote share. Hillary Clinton will not lose California. I do not change my projection that she would get anything less than 55% of the vote -- heck, President Obama on this poll has a 48% approval rating in California, which is surely one of the highest.  

Most R voters in California are Libertarians, so I can't imagine Christie, Bush, or Huckabee faring any better.    

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

139  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How the Democratic Party became a tool for Wall-Street on: July 31, 2014, 03:40:29 pm
Real hate of working people implies a reversion to the 70-hour workweek and 40-year lifespan of industrial workers as was once the norm. That they are in the more 'socially advanced' retail or food service business is hardly an improvement. All that is necessary is that the social norms mandate that wages be so low that people must work to exhaustion just to get the most basic needs and pay off the grafters.

 
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Quinnipiac: Paul only trails Hillary by 4, leads among Indies on: July 31, 2014, 01:38:18 pm
These results make more sense for Florida than those of the Q poll of last week. They also make sense for Ohio.
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 31, 2014, 01:23:59 pm
Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  Nevada is 'new' to polling, and it shows a surprise even if the poll is by an R pollster. Under the circumstances, beggars can't be choosers.  



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12

The controversial ones are Missouri (Georgia now looks like a good analogue for Missouri with KC + STL = ATL; it's about half Iowa and half Arkansas, which both register as ties), Tennessee (which I am placing politically about halfway between Georgia and Mississippi or Georgia and Kentucky). Until I see commanding evidence to the contrary I practically define Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia as swing states. I'm giving ND as more solidly R than SD because of the boom in natural gas in North Dakota. Indiana? NE-02? Go figure.
 
I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012. 
142  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 31, 2014, 01:08:40 pm
Quote
A federal appeals court ruling striking down Virginia's ban on same-sex marriage is reverberating across the state's border.

Roy Cooper, North Carolina's Democratic attorney general, said at a Monday press conference that he would no longer defend his state's constitutional ban, citing the precedent the Virginia ruling had set.

"Our attorneys have vigorously argued this case every step of the way," Cooper said. "But the 4th Circuit has ruled and the 4th Circuit is clear. There are really no arguments left to be made."

[...]

A lawsuit challenging North Carolina's ban had been put on hold pending the appeals court ruling.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/28/north-carolina-gay-marriage_n_5628129.html





For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

In view of the decisions of the 4th Federal Circuit Court, tan for states in which states have until August 18, 2014 in which to appeal the decision:  





Not sure why you made NC white, Cooper has stated he will no longer defend the legal challenges to the law in court, but same-sex marriage is still not legal in N.C

Correction made. One surrender by one elected official may not be enough.
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 31, 2014, 12:25:06 pm
Harper (R), Nevada:

Clinton (D) 47%
Paul (R) 44%

Clinton (D) 46%
Bush (R) 41%

Clinton (D) 48%
Martinez (R) 35%

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/poll-sandoval-would-defeat-reid-double-digits#.U9ptJ_l_vUU
http://cdn.ralstonreports.com/sites/default/files/HP%2014.07%20NV%20Memo.pdf

Limited results from an R pollster, but it is all that we have in Nevada so far. It corroborates the poor performance of Hillary Clinton in Colorado at least according to early polling. Harper must not take either Christie or Huckabee seriously.

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 31, 2014, 06:22:50 am
Quinnipiac, Ohio'

Quote
Looking at the 2016 White House race, Ohio voters back Clinton over their Favorite Son, Gov. John Kasich, 47 - 40 percent. She tops other possible Republican contenders:

    46 - 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    48 - 37 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    46 - 37 percent over New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2066

Not at all suspect. Q is a good pollster. The Florida poll by Q still looks anomalous, and the Ohio poll does nothing to convince me that Florida will offer an easy victory for Hillary Clinton.  I am more likely to believe that the Ohio poll is right for both Florida and Ohio.

The Democratic nominee has not won Florida by a double-digit margin or even a high-single-digit margin since 1948, when Florida really was a Southern state.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP just handed the Democrats the house im November on: July 31, 2014, 03:04:14 am
Quote
The House voted mostly along party lines Wednesday to authorize suing President Barack Obama, which Republicans called a principled move to rein in an increasingly lawless president and Democrats and the White House dismissed as a taxpayer-financed political stunt.

The resolution adopted 225-201 would authorize a lawsuit against the president over his implementation of the Affordable Care Act, with five Republicans joining all the Democrats in opposition...

Republicans say the unilateral employer mandate delay is just one example of the White House’s disregard for the rule of law. Indeed, when Speaker John A. Boehner first announced his intent to sue the president, Republicans weren’t sure which action they would target. They had a menu of options to chose from, which Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions, R-Texas, highlighted during the floor debate Wednesday.

http://blogs.rollcall.com/218/house-votes-to-sue-president-obama/?dcz=

Making government unworkable three months before the Congressional election. That is a high-risk gamble with a small reward in the event of success. I'm no gambler, but that seems the stupidest of all possible bets. If one is to take a bet with a low chance of success, then take something with a big payoff. 
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP just handed the Democrats the house im November on: July 31, 2014, 02:18:46 am
The Republicans lose the House if the Democrats get a D+5 edge in Congressional balloting nationwide. Through gerrymandering the Republicans have a built-in advantage by 'packing and stacking' and were able to maintain control of the House in 2012 despite getting fewer votes nationwide in House races than Democrats, they have lots of R+3 or so seats to lose.   
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Mitt Romney endorse HRC if Rand is the Republican nominee? on: July 30, 2014, 10:44:02 am
Unless David Duke is the GOP nominee, Mitt Romney isn't ever endorsing a Democrat over a Republican. He is definitely a Republican first.

...or someone who denounces the LDS Church.

Otherwise, no.

Rand Paul would be a dreadful choice for President. If he claims the mantle of his father on economics, he is quite authoritarian on almost everything else. But that is fine for the GOP.

Establishment Republicans endorsed Goldwater in 1964.
148  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror on: July 30, 2014, 09:09:48 am
Quote
The high-stakes race for the U.S. Senate remains locked in a near dead heat 100 days before Election Day. Our last survey showed U.S. Senator Mark Pryor with a marginal lead. This survey, with a sample of nearly 1,800 Arkansans, shows a similar marginal lead for Congressman Tom Cotton (44% to 42%).

It will take more time to see if this marks any legitimate shift in Cotton’s direction or, instead, remains statistical noise in a race that has been airtight for months. In all likelihood, fall debates (still in discussion) mark the next major opportunity for either candidate to create space in the race.

In examining the cross tabs in the survey, expected patterns emerge.

A gender gap continues to express itself in the race with Pryor leading among women (45% to 40%) but Cotton is running up a much larger lead among men (49% 37%). The poll was weighted to match the turnout in the last mid-term election (2010), but the Cotton campaign hopes that it can create a November electorate that is closer to even in terms of gender composition.

- See more at: http://talkbusiness.net/2014/07/u-s-senate-poll-tom-cotton-44-mark-pryor-42/#sthash.KgexlF4Y.dpuf

This isn't 2010 anymore. This race is a true toss-up.
149  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich+12 on: July 30, 2014, 07:11:42 am
They couldn't have waited another week or so until the ad is finished airing in the Cleveland and Columbus media markets? Quinnipiac seriously doesn't ever give FitzGerald enough credit. His campaign schedule is much more tedious than Kasich's and his last unknown figures I saw were at around 50%, not 67%. He has been getting his name out there through this ad, fundraisers and a lot of visits all around the state, contrary to Quinnipiac's belief that "no one knows him."

Don't enter this. Quinnipiac is the only pollster who believes this is a double digit race and as usual, Kasich's lead, job approval and lead among women is laughable. Their polls were so off in 2010's race and they're not even close this time, either. If anything, the internal is more on track with where this race is at with FitzGerald remaining competitive.

Good pollsters often have rigid schedules, and it is inappropriate for them to hold off just because an ad campaign is going on. Q will poll Ohio again; Q has a limited repertory of state4s in which it polls.  
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News national: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, Kasich, & Paul by double digits on: July 29, 2014, 04:24:17 pm
GenXers sure don't like Hilldog

It is an interesting question as to why Hillary does so much better than Obama with the olds but poorer with the GenXers. Could it simply be identity politics. Obama is seen as a Gen Xer and Hillary is a fellow old?



If one goes with the generational theory of Howe and Strauss, then Barack Obama (born 1961) is from the first year of births of Generation X. He is not going to formulate great new pronouncements of morality. People slightly older than he can do that quite well. He is more a pragmatist than a moralizer. Dispatching Osama bin Laden with a gangland-style hit establishes that he is no Boomer. The style suggests Al Capone, who did things that way to his rivals and those who crossed him.

Quote
Gen X seems like it does it's own thing, so it doesn't surprise me that they are the outliers  in this crosstab.

Boomers spoke often of 'doing your own thing' when they were young. They clamped down on that once Generation X tried that and did what Boomers would have never done. Boomers generally pretended to great moral objectives; Generation X did what they did out of unabashed hedonism. Generation X can be counted on to do what it does out of self-interest or the interest of loved ones younger than themselves.

Quote
   

This is what a double-digit Clinton win probably looks like. Assuming that the Q polls for Florida which show her with double-digit leads are nearly valid (historically, the Democratic ceiling for Florida is 52%l LBJ barely won the state in 1964), so far as I can tell. It would look much like an Eisenhower win in the 1950s:

(map excised for brevity)

She picks up everything along and east of the Mississippi River except for Alabama. Texas is the closest state, and it makes the difference between the Republican winning 36 and 74 electoral votes. By 9PM east coast time, Republicans start spiking the ratings for hockey and basketball games... or old movies.

Pale colors are for wins under 4%, middle colors are for wins by 4% to 9.999%;  dark colors are for wins by margins over 10%.   

This is definitely a map that I wouldn't rule out. Maybe ND would be pale blue or pale pink and MS pale blue, but I'm guessing that you were working off of polling for this, so it's just a tiny quibble on my part.

Remember: we haven't seen a Democrat win the Presidency by a margin of 10% to 15% in a two-way race or so since FDR beat Willkie in 1940. That does not count the LBJ blowout. Clinton won by about 10% in 1996, but probably because Perot siphoned off several million votes that ordinarily went Republican. FDR won by 7.5% in 1944 and Obama won by 7.2% in 2008.  If anyone agrees with my model for a 10%-12% win for Hillary Clinton, then I am amazed. Tiny quibbles are effective concurrence.

I didn't say that it was going to happen. Barack Obama won by Reagan-like landslide margins in about 20 states and lost by Mondale-like landslide margins in about 15 states in 2008. That is unlikely to ever be repeated for decades.  But if it does happen, the electoral map is more likely to resemble my proposition than just about anything else. To get such results, Hillary Clinton must keep the Obama 2008 coalition intact -- and recover the sorts of voters that Carter convinced in 1976 that haven't gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 2000. That is asking for a lot. It could happen. I just don't see it happening yet.

   

 
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