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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Being hyperbolic, do you think Trump's campaign is over because of the debate? on: August 07, 2015, 07:21:52 am
He can win the loony vote of the GOP, which in a 7-way race is enough.
127  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump writing angry tweets about Megyn Kelly and Frank Luntz @3am on: August 07, 2015, 07:20:09 am
I have doubts about his sanity.

If he has problems with Frank Luntz and Megyn Kelly -- think of the trouble that he will have with Rachel Maddow. 
128  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Bold Prediction on: August 07, 2015, 07:17:09 am
IL and WI are quick calls as Democratic pick-ups.
Democrats hold NV and CO seats.

The bare wins of Ayotte and Toomey of 2010 are reversed in 2016.
The two are poor matches (as contrasted to horrible) for their states except in R wave elections.

Strickland wins in Ohio unless Kasich is the R nominee.

Iowa is gone for Republicans if Grassley has any health problems.

Burr loses out in North Carolina if he faces a strong challenger.

McCain is at the end of the line in Arizona.

We don't know much about Indiana or Missouri, do we?

Florida is a wild card.
129  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Kirk likens Iran "appeasement" to WWII on: August 07, 2015, 07:07:20 am
Now we know how he could get a 25% approval rating in the  PPP poll. mismatch for the state, electable only in the 2010 or 2014 environment in the wake of an appointed Senator. 
130  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's with the Kasich boner? on: August 07, 2015, 07:01:56 am
Kasich seems the most competent -- prepared with legitimate achievements (of course, the economic growth is an effect of the OBAMA-era recovery)... and not being trapped in contradictions or right-wing boilerplate.

Unlike the others he has not been overexposed. 
131  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: August 06, 2015, 05:01:21 pm
Stabenow's approval rating is 42%. Is she in trouble too?  The thing is pbrower, is that folks are down on the political class in general, so approval ratings of politicians tend to be low these days. Does that mean they will lose? Not really, because their opponents will have low approval ratings too. It is time pbrower for you to start a grand new mental adventure in your life, and yes, begin to think out of the box. Things change. One needs to keep up.

She could be in trouble in 2018. But we are not discussing her chance of being re-elected as the focus of this forum. 2018 is likely to be a low-turnout election of the sort that Republicans swept in 2010 and nearly swept in 2014 in Michigan. Republicans might have won the US Senate seat from Michigan in 2014 had they had a stronger nominee.

But I am not showing the 2018 election here. After all, we don't know who will be President and how popular the President will be.  We are not discussing the 2018 election here.

If she were up for re-election in 2016 with a 42% approval rating I would have Michigan marked as "Lean R". 43% or 44%? Toss-up at this stage. 46% or 47%? Lean D. 

Venerable Ted Stevens got defeated in 2008 in a state that rarely votes for Democrats in statewide elections.   His approval ratings were in the low forties.

...The Democrats will have plenty of Senate seats up for grabs in 2018.

132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders to speak at Liberty University, the largest evangelical college on: August 06, 2015, 04:51:11 pm
Bernie Sanders has a right to discuss his agenda to suppress wages, create a depression, and spend our way to bankruptcy.

His agenda?

No. Simply what Republicans do in practice.
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Santorum's son arrested for DUI on: August 06, 2015, 04:49:47 pm
So f---ing what?
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders to speak at Liberty University, the largest evangelical college on: August 06, 2015, 04:31:28 pm
Sanders is pushing economics issues. There's absolutely nothing connecting Evangelicals to fiscal reactionary politics the Republicans have been pushing.

Evangelicals have gotten the shaft from the GOP. Generally low in SES, they have paid the economic price for supporting reactionaries. Even with global warming, they are more southern -- and they are more likely to experience harm because the American South has brutally-hot summers as it is. They are also more likely to become cannon fodder in war than other white people. Meanwhile, evangelicals have been losing on the 'cultural issues'. 

Poaching the voters who have gotten the least but given the most is good politics, If Barack Obama could pick up Hispanic voters who had most believed in the "Opportunity Society" of George W. Bush and gotten burned most by the  financial collapse... maybe Bernie Sanders can appeal to a populism that could emerge anew from its recent nadir.

I do not have a problem with evangelicals making more money because of fairer pay so that they can put more money into the collection plates at church.

 
135  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: August 06, 2015, 02:23:33 pm
Burr -- 35% approval rating.
Boozman -- 40% approval rating.

Blanche Lincoln looked safe going into 2010.

Approval ratings matter greatly. They show vulnerabilities and strengths. If I look at Grassley and see him safe despite being in relatively-liberal Iowa in a year of a Presidential election, it is because incumbents with 53% approval ratings get re-elected easily.

Give either Burr or Boozman a strong opponent and he loses. Of course that is asking for something yet to happen, but such is not at all likely against Grassley.
136  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 06, 2015, 09:12:34 am
This is what the 2016 Presidential results will look like with a 2010 or 2014 electorate, arguably the most right-wing American electorates since the 1920s:



Atlas colors:

Strong (70% saturation) 10% or higher margin
Weak (50% saturation) 5-9.99% margin
Bare (30% saturation) 2- 4.99% margin

too-close-to-call white

Republican 335
Democrat 202
too close to call 23


Liberals who dislike this sort of America might consider emigrating if they see this on Election night.
137  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-WMUR: Clinton in bad shape except against Trump on: August 06, 2015, 08:51:46 am
"Likely voters", which now looks like a 2014 electorate.  Practically any imaginable Republican except Trump or Huckabee wins the Presidency with such an electorate.
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 06, 2015, 05:09:36 am
http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/34557172/data/2/-/e8xecl/-/GSP---8-5.pdf

Clinton 45
Bush 46

Clinton 43
Paul 45

Clinton 43
Walker 45

Clinton 44
Rubio 43

Clinton 50
Trump 40

Hillary Clinton seems to be slipping.

It shows here:

Clinton: 42%
Sanders: 36%
Biden: 5%
Webb: 1%
O'Malley: 1%

Tiny sample (6% MoE), but still.

in primary polling in New Hampshire. E-mails? Democrats going decisively more toward the Left in their preferences?

Hillary Clinton was running away as a front-runner until recently.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Two Train Wrecks Underway? on: August 05, 2015, 05:02:45 pm
President Bush

Can't wait to say it again. Getting tired of saying President Hussein Obama

Once the calumnies by FoX Propaganda Channel end due to irrelevance once he is no longer President, people are going to recognize how good a President Barack Obama has been. 
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has This Poll Been Done on: August 05, 2015, 04:59:57 pm
For those unaware of what American Crossroads is -- it is a group founded by Karl Rogue.
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does this statement from Hillary on Planned Parenthood mean? on: August 05, 2015, 04:57:19 pm
The money doesn't go to abortions.  It's for birth control, which stops abortions.  Abortions are going to keep happening in any case, because abortions are a pressing medical need.  There's no evidence or any reason to suggest that cutting birth control funding to Planned Parenthood would force them to redirect their "abortion money" and thus cut abortions.  No evidence at all.  Everything indirectly funds something else anyway.  That's called the economy.  If you don't want your money indirectly going to other people who might spend it in ways you don't like, keep your money in a Scrooge McDuck vault or shut the hell up.

And, spare me the political jargon and moralizing.  This is not about women demanding "free stuff."  This is about giving away a penny to get a dollar.  You're angry that someone got a free penny, even though you're 99 cents in the black.  That's called sour grapes.  Birth control is an investment in women that pays immediate dividends for society. 

And, what is this philosophy that nothing should be free?  Most roads are free, parks are free, libraries are free, police protection is free, why don't those constitute a culture of dependency?  Maybe because it doesn't involve female sexuality which you want to demonize.

Example:

Microsoft and Apple give away free software as upgrades.  That is far more advantageous than losing customers who give up their computers because they will otherwise be nickled and dimed to aggravation.

Also, advertising is usually free to the targeted person.
142  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Romney Lose Florida? on: August 05, 2015, 01:33:34 pm
He also ran an ad linking Obama To Latin American dictators which, uh, didn't help at all.
The ad where Hugo Chávez said he would vote for Obama if he were an American? It should have helped.

It was devastating for Romney that 7.6% swing for Obama in Miami-Dade.

The dirty ad failed. It was too blatant. 
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Major Cities where Whites Voted for Romney? on: August 05, 2015, 01:30:55 pm
Indianapolis
South Bend
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What happened to West Virginia and Virginia on: August 05, 2015, 01:07:11 pm
WV has always been socially conservative, and it has few racial minorities.  After a while, the progressively more social liberalism of the national Democratic Party became too much for the average WV Democrat to sign off on.  Coupled with the anti-coal posture of the Democrats under Obama (who appears both foreign and unsympathetic to the average West Virginian), resentment against the Democratic Party finally went all the way down the ballot. 

If Hillary Clinton had been elected in 2008, WV probably would have went Democratic then, and in 2012.  Obama and his Administration have PERSONALLY offended West Virginians with their anti-coal policies and their social policies that WV is probably lost to the Democrats up and down the ballot for the rest of my lifetime.  They HATE Obama, and while some of it is racial prejudice and prejudice against someone who seems foreign to them, some of it is Obama's real disdain for the likes and lifestyles of many West Virginians. 

Case:

1972  Nixon 64 McGovern 36 (R+2)
1976  Carter 58 Ford 42 (D+8)
1980  Carter 50  Reagan 45 Anderson 4 (D+7)
1984  Reagan 55 Mondale 45 (D+4)
1988  Dukakis 52 Bush 47 (D+6)
2000  Bush 52 Gore 46 (R+2)
2004  Bush 56 Kerry 43 (R+6)
2008  McCain 56 Obama 42 (R+8)
2012  Romney 62 Obama 35 (R+11)

West Virginia swings heavily against anyone seen as a radical on the Left side. It voted twice against Obama ... and in 2012 West Virginia rejected Obama almost as firmly as it rejected McGovern in 1976. In 1972 it was close to the national trend; in 2008 and 2012...

Choose your metaphor wisely.
145  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Hitler 1932, Sanders 2016 voter on: August 05, 2015, 12:43:59 pm
A German woman born in 1910 who became a war bride of a Jewish-American soldier... and of course converted to Judaism -- and lives to age 106.
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden vs Trump on: August 05, 2015, 12:38:22 pm



Biden/Klobuchar 360
Trump/Ayotte    178


Biden gives more confidence in his emotional stability.
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Sanders lagging in endorsements? on: August 05, 2015, 12:31:02 pm
Endorsements do little good this early and can backfire. 
148  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Texas AG Indicted on: August 05, 2015, 11:43:05 am
Lol, what is up with DA's in Texas?
There are Democratic DAs in Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Houston, and San Antonio... and they can crusade against some allegedly-corrupt statewide pol.
The DAs in Harris and Dallas counties are Republican. The DA in Bexar County was a Republican until 2014, until a lawyer donated $700,000 to the Democratic candidate's campaign.

OK -- thanks for the clarification.

Quote
Having a special prosecutor may be a disadvantage. "I spent $X00,000 investigating, and couldn't find anything wrong." That is particularly the case with Perry, where the prosecutor had to interpret a statute in a certain way.

If nothing is found. But remember Representative DeLay.

Quote
The indictments stem from Paxton apparently getting a couple of folks, one of whom is a state representative, to invest in a start-up company $100,000+, and not disclosing that he had not invested, and would also be receiving compensation in the form of stock.

In some bailiwicks such is known as undue influence. Full disclosure is mandatory in stock deals. If Paxton influenced others to invest by claiming to be an investor of his own funds and put up no cash (or a ridiculously-low amount) he may have committed securities fraud.

Of course people get commissions for selling securities, whether in startups or in established firms. One can of course exchange commissions for stock by buying into the stock.

Investment in a start-up stock corporation is a high-risk endeavor. Misrepresenting the risks by saying that one invested when one did not while inducing others to buy in is securities fraud.

Some lawyers suggest it will be hard to get a conviction. Typically, prosecution would be for fraudulent misrepresentation, but the indictment is for fraudulent omission. Prosecutors will have to prove that the omission was material to the investors investing.
[/quote]
149  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR-Sen: US Attorney Conner Eldridge considering on: August 05, 2015, 11:33:21 am
I saw an approval rating of 40% for Senator Boozman. In a high-participation election he could lose to a moderate Democrat, especially if Barack Obama loses relevance in the campaign.   
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral-Vote.com is back on: August 05, 2015, 11:28:00 am
In 2008 I got Missouri and North Carolina wrong -- the difference was that Nader won more votes in Missouri than in North Carolina, and Barr won more votes in North Carolina than in Missouri. 

EV got only Indiana (which I got right) and NE-02 wrong, which is better than I did.

Safe prediction: if the Republican nominee wins Indiana by less than 10%, then the Democrat wins nationwide.
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