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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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126  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 10, 2017, 05:13:56 pm
White people with college degrees:

approve 36% -- disapprove 59%

If you are to ask what demographic is most likely to make a difference -- then here it is. This is a sophisticated group of voters, and one unlikely to be moved quickly once it gets a negative opinion on anything. Such people hold their own in impromptu political debates against an unsophisticated argument by an ignoramus. (Ask me how I do that). It's usually someone with less than a college degree who offers a shabby defense of a politician or a political cause. Poorly-educated white people might not recognize the validity of a well-crafted counter-argument by any person of color.

In the old days, Democrats could lose Presidential elections against this demographic (it is telling that white college grads voted -- barely -- for Goldwater in 1964) because there weren't so many college graduates of any ethnicity as a share of the population.

Well-educated people usually make their minds up and keep their minds  made up on personalities and policies. That may have saved Barack Obama in 2012 -- but it can wreck Trump in 2020.

Republicans need to at least break even with this group now.  

This polling was taken before the firing of Director Comey.

The glaciers are gaining ground in this Winter of Discontent.
127  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Trump Fires Comey on: May 10, 2017, 04:51:26 pm
There will simply never be anything to cause Trump supporters to stop blindly supporting him.

Trump dissolves congress and installs himself as president for life? They would have a million and one reasons why it was necessary.

He issues an executive order declaring the media as enemies of the state? It's all fake news anyway.

All political rivals are prosecuted? They deserve it, lock em up!

I realize these are extreme examples but we all know these fascists wouldn't even think of opposing Trump if he attempted to do anything remotely dictator-ish.

The military would stop that.

We do not have a parliamentary system in which a monarch, prime minister, or president can dissolve Congress. On the other side, there is no such thing as a vote of no confidence that that can oust an incompetent or unpopular President. Impeachment is for gross misconduct -- literally criminal behavior. Removal is possible for diminished capacity, and it was not used in the case of Ronald Reagan, who had advanced Alzheimer's disease.  
128  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 10, 2017, 04:34:50 pm
Too early to say if this is permanent or will reset to the 40s.

It is too early. 36% is as low as I can imagine for a president who does not have an economy in free-fall, an international calamity, a sex scandal, or bungling of a national disaster -- none of which apply to the President.

This said, the firing of Director Comey does not look good.   
129  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 10, 2017, 01:32:07 pm
Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source


Q is below Gallup... and this is before the Comey firing. If one accepts that Wisconsin is typically about D+3, the St. Norbert's poll is in line with this result.

Next week's polls should say how Americans think of the Comey firing. Note that I avoid commenting on how events will effect change in polling data. I let the polls speak for themselves.

...PPP, Marist, and Siena have been rather quiet recently.
130  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Betsy DeVos booed while giving commencement speech. on: May 10, 2017, 12:55:58 pm
Traditionally black college or university? That is a goof.

She speaking for education makes about as much sense as a prostitute speaking out for chastity.
131  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 10, 2017, 12:52:08 pm
Polls by a newbie  from Florida and Ohio have some strange editorial commentary and prove to be outliers. There will be more polls, especially of those two potentially-critical states. No obvious problem presents itself  with this one:

UNH poll of New Hampshire (4/24-5/4):

43% Approve
47% Disapprove

These guys took a hit last November, but yeah.

Quote
Craig Gilbert‏ @WisVoter  4m
4 minutes ago
 
More
new WI poll by St Norbert's (small sample -- 303 adults) has Trump at 39 approve/59 disapprove and Gov Walker at 49/49.

Shocked

tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.

A poll by Marquette University Law School a couple months ago had Trump approval around 42% in Wisconsin. The difference could be adults versus registered voters, or something like that. The 59% disapproval should scare the Hell out of Wisconsin Republicans.

This poll suggests that President Trump would lose by double digits in 2020 if he runs for re-election. At a minimum I see him losing the three states that are the difference between Hillary Clinton and he as President (MI, PA, and WI), with further possibility of losses that give the Democratic nominee at the least not-so-bare wins.

The amazing thing is that Scott Walker is holding his own despite Donald Trump as President.   When a Republican nominee for President is down by double digits in Wisconsin he stands to lose at least as badly as McCain in 2008.

This is all before the Comey kerfluffle.


Favorability:



*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:




Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  




132  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Trump Fires Comey on: May 09, 2017, 09:48:29 pm
Honest question, why is the President so quite, even on twitter?

Some men just like to watch the world burn.

Nero was an entertaining fellow, too.
133  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 08, 2017, 12:00:58 pm
At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.
134  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: More hated by Democrats : Bush from 2006-2008 or Trump Now on: May 08, 2017, 09:45:47 am
With Dubya the disdain was for the results to a far greater extent than his bland personality. With Trump the disdain so far is for his personality and ideology. We have yet  to see the consequences of a Trump Presidency. It took about five years for the disaster that Dubya was  make itself widely known.
135  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Louisiana advances death penalty repeal on: May 07, 2017, 09:00:41 pm
The death penalty is beginning to look increasingly barbarous and ineffective in America. If Angola (which I have sardonically renamed "An-GULAG") Penitentiary isn't a deterrent to crime,  then not even death can be.

 
136  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 07, 2017, 08:55:59 pm

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results. 
137  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump/Pence out after '18, Prez Pelosi resigns, Hillary is incumbent in '20... on: May 07, 2017, 01:20:05 pm
Mitt Romney becomes President, because he will be the best that Democrats can hope for before 2018. If he cleans' out the vipers' lair that the White House has become, then he might be in a stronger position than Ford in 1976.

Cleaning up the Trump mess is more important than any partisan gain from the disaste rous Presidency of Donald J. Trump.   
138  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which state Democratic Party is in better shape long-term--KY or WV? on: May 07, 2017, 12:35:54 pm
Kentucky has had some fine Democratic governors -- Beshear and Ford -- I'm surprised that Wendell Ford didn't run for President.
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would 2020 look like if Hillary was renominated? on: May 07, 2017, 09:22:57 am
Donald Trump has so chaotic a Presidency that he never really recovers. Hillary Clinton campaigns more effectively, and the FBI, CIA, and military are leaking all sorts of stories of incompetence and corruption that the President can't handle.



Minimum. Republicans lose Senate seats that they had no idea that they could lose.
140  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: PC: some city other than NYC is the largest port on the East Coast on: May 07, 2017, 09:15:32 am
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey manages ports in both New York City and New Jersey. I'm guessing the biggest East Coast port is now in New Jersey.
141  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: Could the Civil War have been avoided if Jackson had been President in 1861? on: May 07, 2017, 09:07:37 am
No. Too tied to slavery to do anything against it.

The British had the right model for emancipating slaves, and Lincoln knew it. The problem was that the Southern politicians would have had nothing to do with it.
142  General Discussion / History / Re: If Dukkakis won in '88 would Reagan be viewed like Obama is now on: May 07, 2017, 09:03:59 am
The reason why Reagan is so exalted by Republicans is because he's literally the only Republican president since Eisenhower who wasn't a complete failure/disgrace/lost reelection.  They don't have any other options.

While HW lost reelection, very few would call him a failure or a disgrace.

True. He simply had no coherent idea of what to offer in a second term and ran a lackluster campaign. 
143  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Things you like about President Trump on: May 07, 2017, 08:30:47 am
Uh, well, let's see... I guess that he's not a Christian fundamentalist fanatic like so many of his Republican brethren.

Yep. He believes in nothing but himself and his extensions (family members, cronies possessions....) I have yet to hear of any personal pets. 
144  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors confront politicians at town halls megathread on: May 07, 2017, 08:25:11 am

One doesn't have to be a paid protester to boo that sort of statement.
145  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will America be like in 50 years? on: May 06, 2017, 10:41:28 pm
Based on the theories of Howe and Strauss...

2067 should have a public mood analogous to that of roughly 1987 or 1907, with a jaded culture in which people have given up on religious awakening and political ferment. Americans or their successors will be going materialistic and hedonistic, celebrating indulgent freedom at the expense of community that they consider trivial and social equity that they neglect. Culture will lionize the athlete and the pop star at the expense of the scholar and reformer. The elderly will be what are now Millennial young adults; people in midlife will be the children of our time; the young adults will be much like Boomers (smug and selfish) of such times; children growing up will believe in little but survival (especially material). It will be much like America under Taft or Reagan.   
146  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How will Americans of 2064 view the state of America in 2017? on: May 06, 2017, 07:39:44 pm
This thread got a lot darker than I anticipated.

Anyway I can imagine a 2064 where America is "Post-Colonialist" or away from being a world power, but even that would be pushing it.

I have no doubt they will see 2014/15 as the start of a new era in modern history, but I hope this epoch is short-lived rather than a long era.

Probably because we live in ominous times, with one Party, consummately ruthless, acting as if it wants to become the dominant Party and will stop at nothing to achieve such a reality. Single-Party systems generally become corrupt and authoritarian and represent increasingly-tiny segments of the population over time. Life becomes miserable for most people because most people get treated like serfs if not pariahs. .
147  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 06, 2017, 07:35:11 pm
Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

I always thought that the +6% number had to do with the head to head numbers, not the general numbers. Trump may have only gotten 46% in the general election, but take out the third party votes and he went 49-51.

Nate Silver refers to the binary vote, usually ignoring the Third Party/Independent vote.
148  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will America be like in 50 years? on: May 06, 2017, 03:07:00 pm
Possibilities:

1. A "Christian and Corporate State', a right-wing mirror image of the Soviet Union that celebrates inequality and has control of satellite states that follow much the same ideology. It is a repressive and militaristic society generally recognized as an Evil Empire. Humanity exists to serve the elites and gets little more than promises of Pie in the Sky When You Die. There might be a rich technological life, with basic science , mathematics, and engineering doing well.  It's the sort of political entity that people want to leave but can do so only at great personal cost -- if at all. The world has an uneasy peace with a political order that occasionally picks up a 

2. The surviving hegemon in the smoking ruins of World War III, maybe recovered some. The Man in the High Castle describes the scenario well -- except that America is something like Nazi Germany and imposes its will in places where such is tolerated out of fear.

3. The smoking ruins of World War III, depending on the severity and recency of the war. People might be picking up the pieces and starting to make progress into the '70s.  The 1870s in technology and the 1370s in living conditions, that is.

4. Civil War. America polarizes along ethnic, religious, and regional lines. All bets are off.

5. A nation occupied and partitioned by the victors of a war of conquest that American leadership started and lost. Political and cultural reality is whatever the local victor tolerates. As one of the more striking, but benign changes, just think or the impressive Carnival that might be introduced in such a city as Atlanta. Many Americans might learn the practical benefits of using a Japanese-based pidgin (yes, it is written in a Latin alphabet) for dealing with the Japanese.

War criminals have been disgraced and likely executed -- and they are shown as examples of what not to be. Political groups seen culpable in the Bad Old Days are disgraced and outlawed. I can imagine the politics of some sections being reshaped to fit the models existing in the occupying powers.

Democratic (small D) institutions may have made a return, and this may facilitate the restoration of most of the USA. But the cost in lives and capital to get to that point will have been monstrous.

6. America rejects Donald Trump and starts modifying its institutions to ensure that there will be no replay. Probably the healthiest situation. Conservatism redefines itself as a fallback in  case liberal or socialist ideas go too far by offering rationality, enterprise, community, self-reliance, restraint (including thrift), and viable traditions. 

 
149  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: May 06, 2017, 02:38:36 pm
Relevant in the event of the  Trump failure that I see happening so far:

Donald Trump won with a margin of electoral votes more like that of Jimmy Carter.  But Carter would end up with problems that he could not solve, and for which Ronald Reagan offered solutions; also, the states were shifting in their partisan allegiance, but to the detriment of Jimmy Carter. Maybe not the solutions that many Americans would not have liked at the time, but the 1984 election suggested that Reagan did a lot of things right, like lowering many Americans' expectations. Oh, you have a college degree and you hate your job in retail or fast food, but your low pay even worse? There is a solution -- take another such job to supplement your meager earnings, and always remember to show that moronic "Delighted to serve you!" smile! People taking second jobs that they hated as much as their ill-paid first jobs solved lots of economic problems.  They may have hated their lives, but they either accepted things as they were or found ways out, like giving up the white-collar dream for a job that gets one's precious hands dirty.   
 




red -- Carter in 1976 and 1980
white -- Carter 1976, Reagan 1980
blue -- Ford in 1976, Reagan in 1980

(Ignore shades).

Just a reminder: it's the next election that matters. It's not that I expect President Trump to be caught with an economic meltdown as bad as that of 1929-1932 or with a diplomatic disaster as severe as the Iranian hostage crisis.  I'm not saying that the President will lose fifteen states that he won in 2016, and for obvious reasons he can't lose 33 that he won in 2016. But two will be enough if one of them is Florida and one of them is Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin and three will be enough if one of them is Pennsylvania and the other two are any pair of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
 
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will Jewish voters leave the Democratic Party en masse? on: May 06, 2017, 02:23:30 pm
Never. We will never join the xenophobic, racist party, having been victims of that stuff so many times.

Jews are becoming Republican slowly.  If the GOP dropped their religious fundamentalist stance, more Jews would become Republicans, as many of the Jews I know are socially moderate to liberal, but conservative in economics.  On the other hand, Jews are represented in disproportionate numbers to their numbers in the general population in the fields of law and education, and two of the GOP's top targets are trial lawyers and teacher unions, so many Jews have their economic livelihoods at least somewhat tied up with the Democratic Party.  

I would not be surprised if Jews, as a group, become split-ticket voters; more Republican for President, but Democratic in down-ballot races.



If there is any tend of Jews toward the GOP it is among converts who change their religious affiliation but not their politics. So consider a Swedish-American, conservative Republican farm girl from North Dakota who falls in love with a Jewish man and converts to Judaism. She can reject Jesus without rejecting the GOP of her parents. That is one more Jewish Republican.



   
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