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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How many states will SSM be legal in in 2016? on: October 19, 2014, 12:11:03 am
Sorry about the different color scheme, but it comes from a different thread.

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 17 October 2014:




Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

White -- SSM equality by law.

Others, based upon popularity of SSM :

Green -- more popular than unpopular.
Yellow -- toss-up
Red -- more unpopular than unpopular, with the more intense shades showing more severe unpopularity.

Wyoming will go into the white category within a week. It has three working days in which to seek a stay, and it will need a very strong argument that has failed. Kansas is in the same Federal district with Wyoming, and it has had some same-sex marriages.  The US Supreme Court will not continue stays that exist solely to delay compliance with a lower-court ruling.   
 


27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 18, 2014, 11:56:24 pm
It's still amazing to me how people in Ohio think that a quarter black population constitutes some sort of negro ghetto. A quarter black here is a mass affluent McMansion suburb.

People in Ohio (people in general actually) don't think about towns as "a quarter black." They think "there's way more black people than what I normally see" and connect that to run down, urban environments. I would hope most of them don't think one is a cause of the other, but they probably do.

I've only been through Lima a handful of times but it's similar to Toledo, where I grew up. NW Ohio is an unbelievably depressing place. But, like what Torie said (an excellent post by the way), your connections to family and friends can be an overwhelming force to keep you put. And isn't that kind of just fine?

dead0, Ohio is bleeding population like crazy. Texas is being overwhelmed with Midwesterners looking for work. The people who are not moving shouldn't be blamed for clinging to the lives they've already worked their asses off for just because they lost the arbitrary geography/prosperity lottery eventually (say that five times fast). Their kids will probably gtfo though. I got waay out, obviously, and my other siblings ended up in, well, Texas.

Immobility is one of the hallmarks of persistent poverty. People who can get out of depressed areas find a way to get out. Maybe they work two minimum-wage jobs that require a 20-mile commute each way, save every penny that they can, and make the move to where the jobs are.  That is a tough way to live, and one has to see two years of misery before something incrementally better. Extreme poverty culls out the competent and wrecks the marginal.

The people who stay get poorer and more helpless. They wait for a resurgence that may never come. So it is in much of coal country. The tax base erodes, and so does the infrastructure. The smart kid who attends Ohio State and gets a teaching credential may find more opportunities in Iowa than in Ohio. That may be one talented teacher that the Ohio community never gets. Roads deteriorate, schools deteriorate, drugs proliferate, criminal gangs flourish, and, well...

I have been to Toledo several times, and it in no way looks like Lima, which I have seen only once. Lima utterly creeps me out; it is basically Detroit with a 'whiter' population. I suspect that anyone who can get out of Lima for Fort Wayne, Indianapolis, or Columbus does so.

28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rank Each State on the Spectrum on: October 18, 2014, 11:38:48 pm
Here are some of my problems with the characterizations of states (aside from the label "populist". We have states with very different politics in the same category, and not only as style. Not judging close races, I see Ohio and Pennsylvania in the same category. Pennsylvania is on the fringe of being a swing state. It could be the tipping-point state in 2016, but that has yet to happen. Ohio is nearly a tipping state now, and was the tipping-point state in 2004.

But -- Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1988. Ohio has gone with the winner every time. In the gubernatorial race of 2014, Pennsylvania is sure to oust its Republican governor, and Ohio is likely to re-elect its Republican governor by a landslide.

States swing rapidly after politicians overreach without consolidating power to the extent that they cause the losing Party to give up. Colorado and Kansas look like opposite counterparts; Colorado elected Democrats much to the left of the center, and Kansas elected Republicans so far to the right that they offended many Republicans.

   
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arizona gay marriage ban struck down on: October 18, 2014, 11:09:36 pm
When you exclude pending appeals (that will inevitably fail), areas where the overturn has occurred but is pending (FL & WY), and states in districts where the bans have been ruled unconstitutional but the states have not yet been forced to recognize it (SC, KS, MT), there are only 10 states left to fall, which comprise barely 15% of the US population.



Imagine that. Roll Eyes

Damn, MO, hurry up so we can have contiguous coast-to-coast SSM coverage!

Ohio is in the 8th Judicial district, so it goes with Kentucky, Michigan, and Tennessee.
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Alabama treats inmates like Victorian debtors at best, stray animals at worst on: October 18, 2014, 11:04:35 pm
Where people are deemed expendable -- expect the worst in the legal and penal system.
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rank Each State on the Spectrum on: October 17, 2014, 08:01:20 pm
Based on the assessment of FreedomHawk :

 

I am not going to distinguish "populist" states from others. Populism as a rule is cyclical, and very weak now (unless one wishes to consider the Tea Party Movement "populist". Most Southern states have latent populism, which explains why Jimmy Carter was able to defeat Gerald Ford with a Democratic Party much more liberal in voting than most of the North and West. To explain how the cycle works, Al Gore and Bill Clinton are from two of the states that you consider 'hardcore conservative. West Virginia used to be very left-wing on economics. The pendulum could swing in those states in the next twenty years.

"Centrist" is white.

Libertarian is more persistent, and it is anti-populist. The paler green is for the more liberal of libertarian states, medium green is for the centrist libertarian states, and dark green is for the conservative libertarian states.

Because blue is associated (Atlas colors) with Republicans and red is associated (Atlas colors) with Democrats, those colors are in use and I associate intensity of liberalism or conservatism with the intensity of hue.

I have made guesses on the three districts of Nebraska. DC is in a class of its own, and NE-03 is the most-decidely right-wing unit of electoral votes in America.

We shall soon change this map based on 2014 elections.  
32  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: October 17, 2014, 05:40:55 pm
Get ready to pinkify Arizona as well. Tongue


More precisely, magenta. Pink does not show up well, and lavender is practically invisible.

This is definitive -- from the decision itself:

Quote
A stay of this decision to allow defendants to appeal is not warranted. It is clear that an appeal to the Ninth Circuit would not succeed. It is also clear—based on the Supreme Court’s denial of petitions for writs of certiorari filed in connection with several circuit court decisions which held that same-sex marriage must be recognized in Indiana, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia, and Wisconsin

—that the High Court will turn a deaf ear on any request for relief from the Ninth Circuit’s decision.

I call it now. There will be no stay.


Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 17 October 2014:



White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 9 October 2014:







Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11

ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7

FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4

MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9




33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 17, 2014, 05:29:44 pm
The first paragraph has the answer.
Quote
During the 1950s, when the coal industry in eastern Kentucky fell into a steep decline, scores of young men packed up all they had and headed north
Poor people should move to where the jobs are.  And don't give me the BS line that people are too poor to move.
And where might those jobs be? Should the poor pack up and move to San Francisco?

Interesting article somewhere that the jobs are where the Interstates are. Being near major transportation nodes is where's it's at in general.

Lima is on Interstate 75, and it would be a reasonable point on a superhighway from Chicago to Columbus.
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 17, 2014, 09:23:49 am
The Right tells us that we need more economic inequality, less economic security, more brutal management, and even lower wages so that the only part of America whose welfare matters -- the super-rich -- can indulge themselves more completely.

German efficiency with Bangladeshi wages, enforced with brutality... the dream of plutocrats. It's been tried -- in Germany.  Nazi Germany, that is, and the brutal order for workers is not so infamous as the genocide and aggressive warfare that killed millions.

A warning to those types -- we could live without you, thank you.
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: October 16, 2014, 07:12:06 pm
What is the cause for the extremely-long delay with Michigan? The Supreme Court has quickly dispensed with appeals that are nothing but delaying tactics with a weak case, as with Indiana and Wisconsin.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Obama on: October 16, 2014, 03:20:01 pm
Not even trolling: considering the historical precedents of Wilson, FDR, Truman, JFK and LBJ, when did everyone decide being a hawk/interventionist became an inherently "conservative" thing?  It had to be post-Iraq war, which is really lazy.

Neither Lincoln, Wilson, nor FDR wanted war, but got it anyway, and handled it as ferociously as necessary. The current President is on the brink.

There is no ideological defense of genocide for either a conservative or a liberal.

Paradoxically it may be the politicians who least relish war who handle it best.
37  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 16, 2014, 10:51:42 am
Well, fusion is far far more economically viable than fission.

fusion releases more energy per gram than fission, like ten times as much

also, there are no radioactive by-products with fusion

Wrong -- high-intensity, ionizing energy that must be muted into more controllable heat. The mathematics just do not work for cold fusion.
38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 16, 2014, 09:35:24 am
Middle-class Jews, Muslims, blacks, Hispanics, Asian-American, and homosexuals act as if they distrust the Republican Party -- but middle- class white, straight Christians do trust the Republican Party.

It may be that the speculative boom in real estate in the last decade (the "Opportunity Society" of George W. Bush) fleeced Hispanics and then hurt them worst when it imploded. Mexican-Americans buy into single-family housing at lower levels of income than any other ethnic group, and they got burned. They probably fault Republicans where such happened, especially in California and Nevada. Not in Texas, though, even if the Hispanics there are heavily Mexican-American -- Texas has tougher lending laws as the result of the boom and bust of the 1980s.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: October 16, 2014, 09:26:08 am
Please update map to include Alaska.

With pleasure. There seems to have been no appeal from state officials so far as is usually the case when there is a desire and will of State officials to do so. There would be some appeal by now.

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 15 October 2014:



White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 9 October 2014:







Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11

ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4

MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9



40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Hillary curb stomps her opponents by double digits on: October 16, 2014, 12:00:15 am
Unless we have a near-flip between the Democratic and Republican Parties since the 1950's (I have made suggestions that President Obama has started picking off some of the demographics of Eisenhower voters of the 1950s) and Hillary Clinton holds onto those, Hillary Clinton is not going to win anything like 55% of the Presidential vote in Florida. Has the "Rational Right" started to drift Democratic without going to the political Left?

A few pointers:

1. Air strikes will at most weaken ISIS. The Air Force does not take territory or prisoners.

2. The economy can melt down. We have had a recovery that may begin to unravel at any time.

3. The Republicans have deep pockets for political campaigns.

4. The Republicans know how to exploit fear even if they are culpable of creating the fearsome situation. "Peonage or death!" is as vile an offer as "Your money or your life!"  -- but it has proved effective at times.

41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which states qualify as culturally Southern? on: October 15, 2014, 12:21:18 pm
Orlando is a Southern city like Charlotte or Atlanta.  More liberal maybe, but you're still in the South.

Nothing about the Miami area is Southern.

Like El Paso, Laredo, and the lower Rio Grande Valley, Miami is culturally Latin-American.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 15, 2014, 08:19:36 am
The thriving progressive urban metropolises of San Jose, Los Angeles, San Diego and Denver. The progressive cosmopolitan powerhouses in Chicago, New Orleans, New York and Philadelphia.

Whether the white elite live in McMansions in far-lung suburbs or in expensive condominiums in the inner-city, they are dependent on the labor of Latino, Asian or Caribbean immigrants and would have no cultural materials without the tremendous influence of African-Americans on the heart and soul of America. Blacks, Latinos and Asians almost uniformly vote for Democrats because they see the injustice of a system that is dependent on them but uses and abuses them in every aspect of life. Their voting patterns are not an indication of anti-white racism but rather an indication that people of color wish to eradicate racism.

No, that's what silly white people tell themselves. Russel Simmons explained it once upon a time, when he was talking about the difference in rebel subcultures within white and minority demographics. He said white people fight to get out, and minorities fight to get in.

No. The minorities who want to get into the upper echelons of our society must contort themselves to show that their ethnicity is nothing more than an eccentric quirk, and generally try to show themselves as 'whiter than thou'. Those who fail at that and succeed at something else don't pretend to be anything other than what they are. The latter is far easier. It is safe to assume that the non-white parts of the middle class are in no way rebels. Maybe figures of entertainment and sports can get away with some rebellion, but they are rarely middle-class.

I see no reason to believe that black or Hispanic, let alone Asian, members of the American middle class are 'alienated' with middle-class life any more than are white members of the middle-class. They are liberals to the extent that they distrust right-wing extremists who would gut the public sector that gave them formal education or in many cases, a middle-class job. The black and Hispanic middle class are more likely than white counterparts to have a government job. Even if one is black or Hispanic and has a private-sector business or professional practice, one's clients are more likely to rely upon some form of government assistance -- food stamps or Medicaid.   

Quote
Capitalist conservative WASPs are viewed as the cultural hegemons. Liberals are fighting to get out from under (what they believe to be) oppressive economic policy and extraneous social decorum. Minorities, on the other hand, are not fighting to have a different flavor of middle-class or upper-middle class existence. According to Simmons, they are fighting to get a piece of the existing, established American Dream. Why do you think "spread the wealth around" was so intoxicating, and Obamacare was so lukewarm?

The capitalist elite seeks economic, and not cultural, hegemony. So long as it gets complete control of the economy it does not care how debased American culture gets. It is willing to align itself with Christian fundamentalists to push pseudoscience and a world-rejecting view of the universe upon gullible people because it knows that it will be exempt from personal consequences.  It wants cheap, expendable labor that it can get productivity from with threats. If it can't reimpose slavery, then it can make debt bondage in all but name as the norm for people outside the elite. It would push workers into an arrangement analogous to the relationship between landowners and sharecroppers in the old South -- the employer offers sustenance on credit which must be met at the terms of the employer at some 'settlement' at the end of a term. Someone not working adequately at the terms of his employer can be punished by law. Of course such requires that the helpless wretch have no political power -- no vote.

That is a relevant model for America because it has existed in the past. Just look at all the credit-based rip-offs in America. All that is lacking is the disenfranchisement of those who have no property and a a police that harshly enforces the terms of peonage contracts.   

Quote
Liberals and minorities have virtually nothing in common beyond mutual distrust of conservative WASPs. Democrats are aware of the situation, and they never let a good race crisis go to waste.

What have Movement Conservatives done to merit trust by anyone other than themselves? They stand for the most rapacious, unprincipled plutocrats in America. They have succeeded in creating 'wedge' issues and promoting a political divide between poor whites and poor blacks, and offering 'pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die-to-those-who-comply' as a reward for miserable and miserable lives today. What they have yet to succeed at is ensuring that life will be so precarious and miserable that all that anyone not in the economic elite can look forward to is a contingent promise of 'pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die-to-those-who-comply'.

They would rather offer booze, prostitution, and pornography than social justice. The economic elite is utterly amoral.

43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 15, 2014, 07:11:07 am
I do not see Obama being known as a great president. He has not got Americas involved in nearly enough wars. The wars he did get America involved in (such as Libya) were short, professionally handled and not nearly enough quirky anecdotes were created. Also, no historian will look kindly on a president who actually thinks the U.S. military is not the answer to every foreign policy question. No, Obama will rank the middle of the pack and chill out with Gerald Ford and Chester Arthur. That should be a good conversation, though.

(Typos corrected -- please heed Spell Check!)

He will not be compared to Washington, Lincoln, and FDR, all of whom took a severely-divided country at extreme risk to domestic peace and fully resolved the situation.  I give him much credit for the end of the economic meltdown that threatened to be as severe as that of 1929-1933



(The graph is not mine, and I use it solely for illustration. Conclusions that I draw are mine).

In the wake of the financial collapse that resulted from gross mismanagement of the American economy, President Obama was unable to support any speculative boom that would create a veneer of prosperity over economic destruction as Dubya did. He did what FDR did -- he backed the banks -- but at an earlier stage in the meltdown. Because there is no Louisiana Purchase available on the cheap (Vladimir Putin is not going to sell us Siberia) he isn't Jefferson. His window of opportunity for major reforms of the American economic order, shut tightly in January 2011. But he did get major reforms in that window of opportunity.

Barack Obama rescued Corporate America. Unfortunately for his political power he also rescued the ability of Corporate America to buy every right-wing pol that it could.

Chester Arthur? A non-entity. Ford? Not prepared for an effective campaign for a nationwide election. Barack Obama got elected as resolutely as he was elected in 2008 because people who typically voted Republican for most Senate and House offices despaired of the prospect of a 1929-1933 meltdown of the American economy. He lost those people as he solved their despair, and he still got re-elected in 2012.

He wanted to become as great as Lincoln or FDR, and he has become more the new Woodrow Wilson, if without the bigotry.  



44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Shut down the EPA? on: October 15, 2014, 06:36:38 am
The debate about the EPA is not about EP, but about the nature of the agency.

Why should the EPA be an independent agency, largely beyond Congressional review? People need more clandestine government activity in their lives?

Because quick-buck damage, especially toxic dumping,  to the environment is typically clandestine. The EPA has legal consequences for such behavior. Do irreparable damage and go to prison.
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: October 15, 2014, 06:31:25 am
Rasmussen has glorious news out today, as Obama for the first time in months comes out even-headed With a 49-49 approval. Smiley

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

But the Democrats running for the Senate and House cannot well exploit this fact. The Congressional ballot is dead even, which at best ensures practically ensures no change in the House 

Even if I am excessively partisan to make an objective statement, the President needs some genuine support on foreign policy -- support not tied to a willingness to concede  on all else to Senate and House Republicans to be able to execute an effective foreign policy.

In view of the behavior of Congressional and Senate Republicans, I have no cause to believe that the Republicans will not make a military victory over ISIS contingent upon accepting the transformation of America into a pure plutocracy. Yes, we have a war on our hands, with an enemy that America must defeat.

Barack Obama is not Dubya. He is cautious; he is meticulously honest. He may not relish war, but neither did Lincoln, Wilson, nor FDR. Lincoln, Wilson, and FDR won the wars that they did not want.   


 
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 14, 2014, 03:27:29 pm
Its telling that the Hillary vs. Best Republican map is roughly equivalent to Obama's 2012 win.  Not only that, but there is no 'best' Republican who does this well in every state.  All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses and fall short of this ideal scenario.

There just isn't much wiggle room for any Republican. I find it hard to believe that Hillary could do better than any Democratic nominee in Florida since FDR in 1944, and I can't imagine it as anything other than a swing state in 2016. 
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 14, 2014, 03:20:20 pm

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

As if Maryland (which has not voted for a Republican nominee for President since the 1950s aside from two 49-state blowouts) offers any mystery on how it will go in 2016... It has been polled on the 2016 election for the first time.  

Idaho apparently will vote for any Republican who does not pose the overt danger of provoking thermonuclear war, although that was very close in 1964.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  60
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  


48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 14, 2014, 03:11:49 pm

Gravis, Maryland
Hillary...
Vs Paul Ryan: 51-36 (D +15%)
Vs Rand Paul: 51-34 (D +17%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 52-35 (D +17%)

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-maryland-polling

No surprise there!

New Mexico, also from Gravis:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-mexico-polling/


Match ups:

Hillary vs Rand Paul: 49-36 (D +13%)
Hillary vs Jeb Bush: 50-36 (D +14%)

Kentucky, Gravis (with only one relevant matchup)
 http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/october-kentucky-polling-of-likely-voters/

It features only two 2016 match-ups:

Rand Paul vs Hillary Clinton: 48-45 (R +3%)
Rand Paul vs Elizabeth Warren: 49-36 (R +13%)

Idaho, PPP:

Vs Chris Christie: 33-44 (R +11%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 34-50 (R +16%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 33-50 (R +17%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 34-52 (R +18%)
Vs Rand Paul: 33-52 (R +19%)

More here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/idaho-governors-race-close-but-otter-has-room-to-grow.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 13, 2014, 10:22:18 pm
Kansas, PPP. All against Hillary Clinton.

Vs Ted Cruz: 41-44 (R +3%)
Vs Chris Christie: 38-42 (R +4%)
Vs Rand Paul: 40-45 (R +5%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 41-47 (R +6%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 37-48 (R +11%)

 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/key-races-tighten-in-kansas.html#more

For a state that Republican nominees usually win by 60-40 margins, this is weak.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Hillary curb stomps her opponents by double digits on: October 13, 2014, 02:51:42 pm
Just like that FL-26 poll that's tough to fully trust, this one is the same. I think Hillary wins FL but a 20 plus point win is not happening.

The ceiling for a Democratic nominee for President is likely 54-56% now. The only analogue that I can see to that is one of the Eisenhower elections of the 1950s. I figure that if that happens, many Republicans will be looking for a hockey or basketball game -- or possibly an old movie.
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