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August 29, 2016, 06:34:33 pm
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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Roanoke College: Clinton +16 in Virginia on: August 23, 2016, 08:12:29 am
Leads for Hillary Clinton in Virginia are becoming numbing irrespective of the source. That is the news. Up 16? Hard to believe, but so were the 10-point leads I started to see just after the Democratic Convention.

At this point, the difference between a 16-point lead and a 10-point lead are practically meaningless except in adding another 9 to the percentage of likeliness of a Hillary Clinton win of Virginia. The door is slammed shut and locked. 

I am not doing much averaging this time. A three-week-old poll is obsolete when one of the nominees is as erratic and uncoachable as Donald Trump. Sure, his supporters are wildly enthusiastic, but that happens when a candidate has practically no moderate support (as with Goldwater in 1964 or McGovern in 1972).

Topline is probably an outlier, but he's going nowhere in this state with those numbers in Northern Virginia and Richmond.

Hopefully he stops holding rallies here.
 

But there are parts of Virginia in which he has popular support -- poor, under-educated, southwestern Virginia... Appalachia. Its demographics are much like West Virginia, a state that has trended very fast from being reliably Democratic in its Presidential voting to being reliably Republican. Liberals just do not get the culture of the Mountain South.... and it shows. I have yet to figure what the Republicans have to offer in Appalachia and the Ozarks.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Michigan on: August 22, 2016, 05:48:35 pm
Lean D in a 50-50 race as in 1976 (Michigan would have gone to Carter except for having a Favorite Son), 2000, and 2004... strong D with a very strong Democratic nominee or a very weak R nominee.

This time Safe D. 
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+1, Clinton+1 on: August 22, 2016, 12:22:48 pm
With that being said, Gravis is B- pollster with R-house effect and should be treated accordingly.

Basic tie with a proclivity for R house effects... North Carolina is "barely Clinton". 
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio on: August 22, 2016, 12:20:43 pm
At to just above the margin of error, Ohio may not be as glaring a disaster to Donald Trump as Colorado or Virginia.... but here's to somewhere between 320 and 420 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+1, Clinton+1 on: August 21, 2016, 10:03:20 pm
I'm of the opinion that any poll (other than Utah) that has both candidates below 40% isn't worth my time.

I am raising the threshold to 43% unless someone is up 5% for treating it as a tie.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+4 on: August 21, 2016, 10:01:38 pm
I was going to ridicule this poll until I recognized that it causes me to make no changes on my polling thread.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA: CEPEX: Junk poll has Trump +5 on: August 21, 2016, 08:51:44 pm
If it is a fake poll, then will the moderator kill and delete the thread?
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA: CEPEX: Junk poll has Trump +5 on: August 21, 2016, 07:04:09 pm
Worse than my "Loof-Lirpa" polls on April 1 (read it backward)  and the revival of the Stassen for President campaign (he's dead, but why should that stop him!
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 05:15:45 pm
Trump's at 40% in Iowa. Is he doing well or is it just that Clinton is having a harder time closing the deal with undecideds than in other states?

Both are well under their parties' floors (about 45%), which of course means that one can conclude nothing from this poll in Iowa.

Ohio is in contrast big trouble for Donald Trump. Another must-win state (including Colorado, Florida, and Virginia) outside of the margin of error, and Colorado and Virginia far outside of the margin of error? I smell a landslide.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 21, 2016, 03:13:36 pm


Iowa a tie (it has been a statistical tie most of the year); Ohio is out of the margin of error this time, and to the wrong way for Donald Trump.

A Juneau newspaper published a poll of Alaska hither-to-unpublished from June showing Trump up only by 9 --  so I cannot use it. Alaska could be considerably closer than that.

Missouri. Monmouth University. Not by a special-interest group, I can use it.  

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_082316/

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 43%
Johnson - 8%

Still a tie by my reckoning because nobody is above 45%. and the margin is narrow. If Johnson can get 8% of the vote, then someone wins Missouri with 46% of the vote.  

Utah, PPP:

Trump: 39%
Clinton: 24%
Johnson: 12%
McMullin: 9%
Castle: 2%
Stein: 1%

Trump: 53%
Clinton: 33%

Really awful for a Republican nominee in Utah. Trump does utterly destroy Clinton in a binary race. Note that Clinton, Johnson, and McMullin combine for a bigger vote share than Trump. The pale shade for Donald Trump in a four-way race says all that one needs know about his pathetic, erratic campaign. Utah vot3ers are conservative -- but they are not stupid, and they are not crazy.


PPP, New Mexico (work in progress):

1,100 registered voters, Aug 19-21:

Clinton 40% (+9)
Trump 31%
Johnson 16%
Stein 4%

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/89809/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-nm-johnson-strong/

No binary matchup is offered, so I am not showing one. Take out Johnson and Stein, and Hillary Clinton gets half the total votes anyway. Gary Johnson will find New Mexico one of his strongest states as a true Favorite Son.  

South Carolina, Feldman Group (D):

Trump - 39%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - Unknown
Stein - Unknown

Trump - 45%
Clinton - 43%

*This poll was commissioned by the SC Democratic Party, and included 600 likely voters between August 18-21.

Partisan pollster, but a good one.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/new-poll-shows-clinton-trump-tied-in-red-sc-749547075645?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

It appears as a tie -- 45% with a 2% margin in the binary race, and an absolute tie in a three-way race. The Trump campaign is in deep trouble if it can't already crack 45% in South Carolina.




Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.











36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 03:07:40 pm
The only poll that matters is on election day.

So says just about every eventual loser, except in races that are or have been nearly tied.

Donald Trump needs some dynamic to deliver him from a landslide loss (please pardon the double alliterations!), and it is hard to imagine what such a dynamic is.

It's even getting late for a 1929-style crash; it's almost September.  
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Hits To Hispanic Leaders Openness To Legalization For Immigrants on: August 20, 2016, 08:34:18 pm
He is a used car salesman, we all knew this already.

You can get a good used car from a used-car dealership and you can get a good one from a used-car dealership. You cannot get a used

Donald Trump is the used-car salesman who tells you that you that the cheap used car is a good one. 
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would it take to end Trumps chances? on: August 20, 2016, 08:25:59 pm
November 8, 2016 at 11PM EST, as the news media formally announce the results of the voting on the Pacific Coast.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Leaked internal PPP poll finds Clinton down big on: August 20, 2016, 03:00:47 pm
Forgery or parody -- take your pick.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Midwestern state is Hillary most likely to lose? on: August 20, 2016, 02:55:02 pm
For lack of recent polling, only -- Minnesota.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are Trump's chances of winning at this point? on: August 20, 2016, 02:53:22 pm
Practically nil, barring something utterly unpredictable. Donald Trump will not suddenly become a savvy politician, and Barack Obama is not going to do something catastrophically incompetent. one would need to change the nature of the incumbent President and the two main candidates for President to get a much different result.  

Even a 1929-style market crash would happen too late to give Donald Trump a chance. We have two and a half months to go. Hillary Clinton is running down the calendar so far.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: I will get 95% of the African-American vote in 2020 on: August 20, 2016, 03:35:58 am
The only way in which he gets 95% of the black vote is if his Party is able to outlaw the Democratic Party and rig the elections as in a Commie state. 
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 19, 2016, 11:06:49 pm
My weekend projection:



(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation)  267
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)    49
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    39
Effective tie   (white)                     16
Barely Trump (20% saturation)     19
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)     44   
Strong Trump (70% saturation)     42

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

270 wins. That's before I bring up North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida.

I just did. I also brought up some other states. I have some pre-Convention polls (actually during) in Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Oklahoma because those results are likely to stick.

The states in gray have no recent poll, and in view of the recent behavior of polls in Utah and the two unusually-close ones for the Presidency in Kansas and Texas (those are my 44 "weak Trump states" I have doubts about lots of states. If Kansas is up only 5 for Trump, then guess how silly it would be to assume that North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska are "safe for Trump".  But the states in gray don't really matter except for a Senate seat.  States in which Hillary Clinton is up by double the usual margin of error put her very close to 270... and I am very cautious in putting New Mexico in the "Safe Clinton" category. New Mexico just does not get polled often.

Up 8 or more -- Clinton is at 267.
Up 4 or more -- Clinton is at 316.
Up at all -- Clinton is at 355.

Beyond that? Georgia would deliver her a win on the scale of Bill Clinton in the 1990s and just slightly bigger than Obama in 2008. 

Trump losing Kansas or Texas indicates a thorough collapse of his campaign.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Michigan -- likely troubles for Republican Representatives? on: August 19, 2016, 10:50:57 am
Quote
“It does not surprise me that there's some apprehension about Trump [there]. Because it's not their kind of style.” said Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican Party chairman. “The Dutch Reform kind of West Michigan style is much more like Mike Pence. It's more reserved, it's more quiet. If you look at the west side politicians, they're more deliberate, they're more quiet, they're more reserved, they're more Dutch.”


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-clinton-michigan-election-227176?utm_source=huffingtonpost.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange


...........................

Michigan Congressional districts are heavily gerrymandered to the benefit of Republicans in the recent decade. In 2011 the state legislature quickly re-apportioned districts so that such medium-to-large cities as Lansing, East Lansing, Grand Rapids,  Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek were separated and their heavily-Democratic votes would be diluted with rural votes. Republicans would get nothing but slightly-R districts west of the US-23/I-75 corridor.

Donald Trump is doing catastrophically badly in western Michigan... I wonder how many Congressional seats he can take down with him?  R+3 districts can go to Democrats in a wave election.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: August 19, 2016, 10:21:01 am
Trump down double digits in North Carolina? I find that hard to believe. If so, then the closest analogue to this election will be 1964.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew National Poll: Clinton +4 on: August 19, 2016, 08:24:16 am
Numbers numbers numbers... but ignoring why GOPers usually do better in LV screens - and why they weren't reliable in 2012, they have a tendency to screen out Dem voters like first-time voters, itinerant voters, those who aren't confident in English.

Likely voters of course tend to be older, whiter, better educated, and more stable in residence. Such usually favors Republicans, and "likely voters" well modeled the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections which rarely create enthusiasm to bring new voters to the polls.

This time, educated white voters aren't so Republican-leaning as usual, at least in the Presidential election. There is no demographic I would rather have as my voters than well-educated white voters. Minorities? They are called "minorities" for good reason, and in relatively few states are they the majority. They are less amenable to cranky appeals of demagogues; they are more likely to hold their ground in an informal debate with less-educated (and less-informed) white voters.

So someone with the assertive ignorance of "Archie Bunker" tells an educated person that he is voting for Donald Trump because he will "Make America Great Again". Just imagine the possible retorts... "for whom?' ...'what's so bad about Barack Obama?'... etc.   
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FOX5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy GA Poll: HRC 43/Trump 43 on: August 18, 2016, 04:25:01 pm
Republicans will have to spend resources defending Georgia, a state that they usually need not defend.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-Monmouth: Trump +11 on: August 18, 2016, 04:33:03 am
This poll does look pretty R-friendly. It has 26% Dems even though it was 34% Dems in 2012. That's more good news for Bayh than it is for Clinton though.

As it is, the Senate seat is more important to the Democrats than are the 11 electoral votes of Indiana.  So it was in 2012.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - District of Columbia on: August 17, 2016, 10:28:27 pm
Safe D...

Clinton 92, Trump 2, others 6.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Post-Convention polling on: August 17, 2016, 10:25:51 pm
Indiana, Monmouth:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

Trump - 47%
Clinton - 36%
Johnson - 10%

Conducted August 13-16. 403 LV.

Stein isn't on the ballot here so that's why she's not listed I assume.

...could be a bit high for Trump. Republicans winning the Presidency are usually up 15% or more in Indiana.

Three by Quinnipiac:

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

These polls of likely voters were conducted from August 9-16.

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

Suffolk University -- Nevada

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/poll-presidential-senate-races-in-nevada-are-dead-heats

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 42%

I must treat it as a tie because Clinton is up 2% but with less than 45% of the vote. I do this with Nevada so that if I see a poll with Clinton up 44-42 in North Dakota I will not have to claim that such is a lead for her. Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win Nevada, but she is not close to winning it yet in my book.

Georgia, WAGA-TV,  FoX 5 , Atlanta:

The toplines:

Clinton   43%(+2)
Trump   43%(-1)
Johnson   11% (+1)
Undecided   3%

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OS-GA-General-8.18.16.pdf

I have to treat this as a tie because it is a tie.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.










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