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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 18, 2014, 10:47:34 pm
If the Koch syndicate gets its way, American elections will be as meaningless as elections in China.
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Boehner kills internet sales tax bill on: November 18, 2014, 05:21:13 pm
Facilitating evasion of taxes that brick and mortar shops have to pay isn't a good thing.

Don't I incur extra costs via shipping and waiting time when I buy online vs. brick and mortar? 

Not by much. Brick-and-mortar stores depend heavily upon impulse purchases.
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama's Exec Order a landmine in waiting for GOP in 2016 on: November 18, 2014, 05:19:34 pm
In all of the plausibly competitive 2016 states, this is what I predict will be the net effect of the executive order.  Green means ambiguous or little net impact:



Basically, it makes sense only if they are confident it will help push Florida left of the tipping point.  There will also be Democratic risks/GOP opportunities in the rural North that should be taken seriously.
I don't see how the executive order impacts Michigan, Ohio, etc.
 
The economy is going to be the #1 issue in 2016.  Most people Michigan and Ohio aren't going to make immigration their main priority, especially since it doesn't directly impact their states.  While there are people who are going to hate this executive order, they are A). Already probably supporting the Republican and B). Don't need to be further motivated in order to get them out to the polls.

There are also people who will be directly benefited from this executive order.  While these people were already very likely to support the Democrat, they have very low voting rates so this motivation could be useful to Democrats.

I could see the Republican trying to tie Clinton to Obama using this issue.  This would hurt her most in states where Obama lost but Clinton could have more appeal with working class whites, like Missouri and Georgia.
Blue collar states don't like immigrants.

Have a Hispanic in-law and your opinion of Hispanics goes way up. But just as significantly, many 'illegal' Hispanic immigrants have 'legal' relatives.  Barack Obama just might have secured Colorado and Nevada for Hillary and put Arizona in play.

Voting behavior of working-class whites in recent elections suggest that they are almost as reactionary as Corporate America. They are superstitious, gullible, and angry -- and their anger will become favorable to Democrats only when a huge swing toward populism happens to a Democratic Party that looks more like Eisenhower-era Republicans than to Bryan-era Democrats. 

(It's now hard to distinguish the Republican Party from the John Birch Society).
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016: Democrats start with at least 207 EV's, Republicans with 164 on: November 18, 2014, 04:41:05 pm
I think all reasonable minds can agree that Democrats have a serious advantage in Presidential elections in this time period...

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bIBS

Not to mention the fact that the way "swing" states are trending favors democrats as well:

Trending Democrat: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia

Trending Republican: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio

No trend (?): New Hampshire
Uncolor NV/MN, they're more competitive than MI, which you already have uncolored.

Minnesota is not competitive. Stop the meme.
It's more competitive than Michigan (in a presidential race), and you know it.

Minnesota just does not swing much. It hasn't been more R than the national average in a Presidential election since 1952 (and that is probably because Stevenson did so well in the South and only in the South).
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie: end political contribution limits on: November 18, 2014, 04:35:24 pm
Sounds reasonable to me.

Only if you want Scott Walker or Ted Cruz to act as basically a regent for the Koch family.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper. on: November 18, 2014, 04:34:09 pm
Good VP candidate.  Governor of a critical state, will likely be popular again after the Koch fronts quit sniping at him -- basically, his stock as a pol goes way up in December of this year.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: MI GOP to advance EC reallocation plan on: November 18, 2014, 04:31:33 pm
This could be a big deal.

In the current electoral map, a Republican who flips Florida, Ohio and Virginia gets 266 electoral votes.

Any distribution that provides three more electors gets a 269-269 tie, determined by the political party with the most state congressional delegations (that would be the Republicans.) Four electors takes away the tie.

Democrats must play a beat-the-cheat strategy because the Republican nominee, the Republican party, and Koch front groups will cheat as much as they must to win if they have the chance. Remember -- if they win, then nobody dares ask any questions unless he doesn;t care whether he has a job working for an American employer.
33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama's Exec Order a landmine in waiting for GOP in 2016 on: November 18, 2014, 10:13:37 am
The President plays chess; his opponents play slots.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 map with 2014 exit poll results? on: November 17, 2014, 09:24:05 pm
How would that look? Could someone be so kind as to create an EV map based on the House exit polls, or any of the 2014 exit polls? I'm not into the map-making stuff.


Obviously it's not going to happen, but I'm interested.

Democrats win all states to the north of the Potomac, Virginia, Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado are genuine toss-ups. The rest goes Republican.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016: Democrats start with at least 207 EV's, Republicans with 164 on: November 17, 2014, 09:19:59 pm
By figuring that Republicans really have no chance of winning either Michigan or Pennsylvania in a close election but have a chance in Nevada, and calling NE-02 a toss-up )it voted for a Democrat for the US Congress) I get this result:

 Democrats    237    33    --    99 Winning Combinations »
Republicans    163    107    --    56 Winning Combinations »
Ties         23 Tie Combinations »
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: MI GOP to advance EC reallocation plan on: November 17, 2014, 08:21:19 pm
This would be great to do in all states where we have state legislative majorities and governorships.  In this case, the real Michigan will finally get a chance to have a say, and we can expand the swing state map for Republicans. Folks outside Detroit  can finally have their voices heard after years of being drowned out.



Republicans have so gerrymandered the state that Battle Creek, East Lansing, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Lansing are in Republican districts.

I suppose that Battle Creek, East Lansing, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Lansing aren't part of the "real Michigan".

Your Real America is the part that thinks that evolution and a universe much older than 6000 years old are demonic deceits, that the only purpose of Earthly life is to so suffer for economic elites that they get Pie in the Sky when you die, that global warming is a complete hoax, that gays are all child-molesting perverts, and that Barack Obama is every loathsome thing. possible. 

37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016: Democrats start with at least 207 EV's, Republicans with 164 on: November 17, 2014, 08:13:03 pm
One EV can make a huge difference. As an example, should NE-02 become undecided, one goes from this:

 Democrats    207    63    --    301 Winning Combinations »
Republicans    164    106    --    227 Winning Combinations »
Ties         44 Tie Combinations »

to this:

 Democrats    207    63    --    345 Winning Combinations »
Republicans    163    107    --    259 Winning Combinations »
Ties         84 Tie Combinations »
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton believes she can expand the '08 map on: November 17, 2014, 07:47:49 pm
We don't have any polling out of Indiana, so I have no clue there, but so far the head to head polling suggest she could win some of the other states, though which ones depends on who her opponent is.

For example, the Bush vs. Clinton map looks like a repeat of 2012.  Huckabee dominates in the South, but is trailing in Arizona.  Christie does horribly in the South, but does better in the northeast and midwest.

Obviously, its two years out and a lot could happen, but these states could definitely be in play.

Indiana was a freak in 2008 due to the triple-whammy of the credit crunch, a spike in fuel prices, and a sudden crash of the overall economy that clobbered the RV industry. Such made St. Joseph (South Bend) and Elkhart Counties make huge swings to the Democratic nominee. It made Indiana vulnerable to a Democratic nominee if he kept his primary campaign active in Indiana. That is unlikely to be repeated unless the Republican nominee goes way off the political deep end.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cory Gardner and Thom Tillis won by running to the center; will they stay there? on: November 17, 2014, 04:48:59 pm
The Koch syndicate has a view to a total makeover of American politics and even education.
 
If a university wants a big donation to its endowment, there might be strings attached -- like the Koch Brothers telling the university what professors to hire in politically-sensitive subjects.

The Koch agenda on K-12 education: push charter schools to gut public education.

Who needs public broadcasting when people can instead watch FoX "News" Channel and listen to Rush Limbaugh?

According to the oily Koch syndicate and its Heartland Institute front, all the scare stories about climate change detract humanity from its 'need' to burn more fossil fuels  and make the Koch family even richer and more powerful.

The Koch Foundation does much of its politics through the tax-exempt ALEC which uses salami tactics at the State level.

Remember Solyndra? Blame Obama for crony-friendly deals of the George W. Bush Administration

Masters of plausible denial on the fake-populist effort to dismantle Obamacare on behalf of the old run-out-of-money-and-die system in America

Who cares about the environment? Just make a toxic waste pile in Detroit.

Vote as your employer wants you or risk being fired

Don't forget to dismantle Social Security so that profiteers can grab even more of America!

Do you know who sponsored the Tea Party? You can find out here. With right-wing politics, "Things go better with Koch."

They would love to deny organizing the Tea Party, but the Koch brothers organized the leadership sessions for the first stages of it

Koch-funded denial of global warming goes so far as to connect opposition to it to being in league with murderous cult leader Charles Manson and Ted "Unabom" Kaczynski
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: November 17, 2014, 04:43:34 pm
Quote
The public is divided, though, about who should take the lead in solving the country’s problems: 40% say Obama and 41% choose Republican congressional leaders. By contrast, 51% wanted Democratic leaders in Congress to take the lead after the 2006 midterms and just 29% thought Bush should do so.

That's interesting. Looks like the good people of America still have faith in our great president.

Hardly surprising. Everybody loves a winner, even if that winner cheated.

Yes, it really did!

Wait till people see what the GOP has to offer, and if it is little more than Hard Right boilerplate, then Republicans will really have to cheat to win in 2016.


41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Here comes Obama's impeachment on: November 17, 2014, 04:35:33 pm
If Obama forces amnesty on us, why shouldn't they begin impeachment proceedings?

We are not a dictatorship. His goal is to single-handedly and permanently alter the country's demographics.

Not to mention he should be impeached for countless reasons. The spy scandal, the IRS scandal, Benghazi coverup, Fast & Furious, Gruber/Obamacare, the list goes on

Forcing conservatives to obey tax laws and pay what they owe to Uncle Sam is an impeachable offense?

If it is under extra scrutiny, then yes

Someone committing a crime has no cause to complain about the added scrutiny from the police or other law-enforcement agencies. That involves tax laws, too.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: RIP Carl Sanders on: November 17, 2014, 04:32:56 pm
A true hero of politics. Godspeed, and and enjoy the company of Vaclav Havel.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Kansas-PPP: All GOPers lead Hillary, even Cruz on: November 16, 2014, 06:44:55 am
So in 4/5 matchups Hillary is within single digits in one of the reddest states in the country. Sweet.

But do you really believe Kansas won't go GOP by over 10 points?...

Kansas votes right-wing enough that if Hillary Clinton loses the state 55-45 she is probably winning 55-45 nationwide.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: November 16, 2014, 06:25:19 am
It looks like mainstream Republicans do worse against Hillary, not better.

Define "mainstream". The GOP has gone from center-right conservatism (Nixon era) to full-bore support of a plutocratic oligarchy. It has become largely the political arm of the powerful Koch family, and it reflects one of the most reactionary currents in the free world.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2014 national exit poll on 2016 candidates on: November 16, 2014, 06:17:26 am
If the 2016 electorate looks like that of 2014, then the Democrats have no chance of even winning a Senate majority, let alone electing their Presidential nominee. The Democratic Party will have shown itself incapable of going beyond 47% support even in a good year, which means that the Koch family might as well ask the regent that they support step down and turn the White House into a royal palace.

It won't, so who cares? Presidential elections aren't 36% turnout affairs.

I certainly hope that you are right.

In a scenario where only 36% of registered voters vote in 2016, the outcome of those elections will be the least of our problems.

The least of our problems would be whether we have a nominal republic under a Medici-style dynasty or a full-blown absolute monarchy. The only thing good about the Koch family is that they are great patrons of the arts, for which the Medici family was well known -- a couple centuries after they lost power.

I see nothing in their libertarian ideology contrary to turning people in economic distress into debt-bonded serfs lest those in distress die of hunger.




46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Volkswagen announces ALL unions are welcome at its Chattanooga plant on: November 16, 2014, 06:12:51 am
Doesn't it rather defeat the purpose of unions if there is more than one at the same plant? It means people are not united...

Production workers and clerical workers might have very different interests.

Germany is one of the most union-friendly countries in the world, perhaps as a consequence of the victorious Allies finding industrial workers the most reliable opponents of fascism. Nazi Germany outlawed labor unions except those affiliated with the Party, and German workers got the economic equivalent of rape. To this day, German unions are politically influential enough to compel German firms to fit German political norms elsewhere.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will be the next Amendment? on: November 16, 2014, 06:04:47 am
It depends upon who is in power in 2017.

Democrats -- undoing the effects of Citizens United.

Republicans -- a series of amendments that 'emancipate' giant corporations, cull the vote until it is 'reliable', outlaw welfare, and replace the federal income tax with a sales tax -- all to further consolidate a plutocratic oligarchy.  repealing the Seventeenth Amendment so that state legislatures again appoint Senators.   
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cory Gardner and Thom Tillis won by running to the center; will they stay there? on: November 15, 2014, 06:59:41 am
We shall see whether any Republican winner votes his conscience or follows the orders of the Koch fronts who want a plutocratic oligarchy in America.
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is Maine trending GOP? on: November 14, 2014, 08:48:22 pm
The leftie war on white America is hurting them

What Leftie war?

The old New Left has at most fossil relevance to contemporary politics. The Old Right, other than overt racists of the type of the White Citizens Councils, of the time  is much more relevant to today's politics.

When the wage cuts and tax shifts that the Hard Right wants occur to the detriment of working people of all kinds, then poor whites are going to turn against the economic elites. Whiteness may make one more sympathetic to the Right side of the culture wars, but it cannot insulate one from justice against all poor people.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: November 14, 2014, 08:24:44 pm
What is it with Montana?
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