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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How the Democratic Party became a tool for Wall-Street on: July 28, 2014, 02:01:11 pm
Obamacare is FAR from perfect, but at its core, it is still a wealth distribution system that primarily benefits the poor and working class. So why is it that working class people are not rallying around this law and punishing the Republicans who unanimously opposed it (in fact, they rewarded them generously in 2010)? It's because people don't divide themselves politically by class, but by their ideology and political party. "The working class" is not a cohesive unit of voters.

Some working class are better educated than others, and they've realized they are the victims of wealth redistribution. Perhaps the American people could accept wealth redistribution away from young working class to elderly retirement class if our entitlements were properly managed. Unfortunately, our entitlements are not properly managed in even the loosest interpretation of fiduciary administration.

Therefore, this group of well-educated individuals is highly skeptical of the people who invoke the term wealth redistribution to chase the nebulous concept of social justice. These people have already done great damage to our nation.

Education and income, once reliable proxies for partisan identity and voting, are no longer so.

The Democratic Party has become a conservative party as the Republican Party has become a semi-fascist party. As the Republicans make harsher demands on social issues they offend profit-minded interests  who can imagine those interests being threatened. The Religious Right may be anti-abortion, but once it starts demanding prohibitions on alcohol and pornography it will hurt the profitability of business.

Democrats have paid attention to the revenue side of business -- that Big Business needs well-heeled customers unless America is to become a Hell-hole of cheap, brutally-managed workers paid so little that they no longer form a market and that such prosperity as America has depends upon exports. That asks for too much. The Republicans have paid attention to the expenditure side, which normally looks good on paper to wealthy industrialists.

What Democrats have sacrificed is any support of competition in industry.     
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: America Is In Danger on: July 28, 2014, 01:52:00 pm
More traitors to hang.
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is President Obama's approval so low? on: July 28, 2014, 01:50:57 pm
We Americans are more fussy about political life than we have been in a long time. We let Dubya get away with far more than we let Obama get away with.

Just look at how low the approval levels are for Congress and many sitting Governors.  Congress about in the same level of approval as rattlesnake bites.
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which countries are the biggest threats to the United States? on: July 28, 2014, 01:48:09 pm
First picks -- Russia (so long as Putin is around)

Iraq and Syria (should ISIS take over)

Saudi Arabia, a "frenemy" that funds some of the nastiest anti-American causes. 
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 28, 2014, 01:45:22 pm


For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

In view of the decisions of the 4th Federal Circuit Court, tan for states in which states have until August 18, 2014 in which to appeal the decision: 

31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 28, 2014, 01:37:54 pm
4th Circuit Court, MD/NC/VA/WV

Richmond Times-Dispatch

RICHMOND — A federal appeals court panel today struck down Virginia’s ban on same-sex marriage.

In a 2-1 decision, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals judges upheld U.S. Judge Arenda L. Wright Allen's ruling in February that the 2006 amendment to the state Constitution defining marriage as between a man and a woman violates the equal protection clause under the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

The decision will not take effect immediately. It will go into effect in 21 days, unless the defendants file a motion to stay the ruling – which they are likely to do. The case will then head to the U.S. Supreme Court for review.  

Today’s decision is significant because it also renders unconstitutional similar marriage bans in North Carolina, South Carolina and West Virginia – states that are part of the 4th Circuit. Same-sex marriage is already legal in Maryland, which is also in the circuit.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/virginia-politics/appeals-court-strikes-down-va-same-sex-marriage-ban/article_0a448216-167c-11e4-8f75-0017a43b2370.html
32  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is the death penalty justice or revenge? on: July 27, 2014, 05:01:47 pm
This is quite possibly the worst person ever executed:

Quote
Due to his tight control over the RSHA, Kaltenbrunner was held directly responsible for the following crimes:

    Mass murders of civilians of occupied countries by Einsatzgruppen
    Screening of prisoner of war camps and executing racial and political undesirables
    The taking of recaptured prisoners of war to concentration camps, where in some cases they were executed
    Establishing concentration camps and committing racial and political undesirables to concentration and annihilation camps for slave labor and mass murder
    Deportation of citizens of occupied countries for forced labor and disciplining of forced labor
    The execution of captured commandos and paratroopers and protection of civilians who lynched Allied airmen who had been shot down over German-occupied territory
    The taking of civilians of occupied countries to Germany for secret trial and punishment
    Punishment of citizens of occupied territories under special criminal procedure and by summary methods
    The execution and confinement of people in concentration camps for crimes allegedly committed by their relatives
    Seizure and destruction/spoilation of public and private property
    Murder of prisoners in SiPo and SD prisons
    Persecution of Jews
    Persecution of churches and religions
    Persecution of gypsies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaltenbrunner,_Ernst
33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 27, 2014, 12:04:57 pm
A judge in Miami-Dade County concurs with a judge in Monroe County.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-gay-marriage-ban-florida-dade-overturned-20140725,0,2555350.story

Florida may be next. The state will have to deal with the constitutionality of SSM.
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What would be the experiences of the best-experienced candidate of all time? on: July 27, 2014, 11:58:56 am
Buchanan.

He was clearly past prime.
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If President Obama gets impeached... on: July 27, 2014, 11:44:13 am
The House can impeach him even for trivialities -- not only "high crimes" like soliciting bribes or embezzling funds, but misdemeanors. meaning just about any misconduct. If it votes on a party-line basis it can get articles of impeachment passed.

Conviction is the decision of the Senate.

Articles of impeachment could bring down the House Republican majority in the subsequent election of the House.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Would Mark Warner Do With the PV/EV If He Is Dem Nominee? on: July 27, 2014, 10:27:14 am
Giving Mark Warner every state that the Democrats have won in 4 of the last 5 Presidential elections except Iowa (but exchanging it for Nevada, which seems to be ripping away from the Republican party due to demographic change, Iowa being shaky) and giving him a home-state advantage in Virginia,




Warner         280
other guy     258

That's as charitable as I can be toward Republicans in 2016 in an assessment of their chances.

37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 26, 2014, 09:28:53 am
Gravis Marketing, Kentucky:

This one matches both Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren against Rand Paul in Kentucky.

Quote
Voters were also polled regarding the 2016 Presidential race.  Senator Rand Paul (R) led both Democratic candidates in his home state.  He leads Senator Elizabeth Warren 52% to 34% in a hypothetical matchup while he only leading former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 50% to 44%.  

Kentucky did vote for Bill Clinton. But this said, a marginal win of 6% for a Favorite Son in an R-leaning state would not bode well. The Favorite Son effect is worth about 10% in most Presidential elections (OK, Obama outdid Kerry in Massachusetts between 2004 and 2008) whether for winners or losers as Presidential nominees. That is the difference between Dole and Bush in Texas (1996 and 2000) and between Bush and McCain in Texas (2004 and 2008).  I'm not saying that Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mike Huckabee loses Kentucky.

This poll suggests more than anything else that Rand Paul would be an unusually-weak Republican nominee for President. He would win Kentucky, but he might lose Indiana.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





[/quote]
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark Comm/WSB: Carter +7 on: July 26, 2014, 08:34:40 am
One of the better pollsters, PPP, has done few polls in Georgia while the potential Republican nominees were  contesting the primary. Now that the polling involves simpler, binary choices or a choice involving the two major candidates and an independent/third-party candidate, PPP may start polling Georgia, one of the most interesting states for a hot Gubernatorial and Senatorial races. Maybe Marist will get into the act. Quinnipiac? Survey USA? You Gov?

   
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-KSN: Davis +8 on: July 26, 2014, 07:58:36 am
He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

One can lose in a state with a large partisan edge for one for one of two things:

INCOMPETENCE

CORRUPTION





I can see the narrative of this race being similar to the one in Illinois. One party thinks that 50+1% of voters are die hard loyal and just sees that as a green light to play.

That is the idea. The Democrats have few such races, but Republicans seem more frequently in denial:

We can't lose this Governorship -- this is conservative Georgia!

We can't lose this Senate seat -- this is conservative Georgia!

Politicians can so disgrace themselves in most states that they can give a comparative unknown a good chance to win a political office that they think invulnerable because  'this is...' The other is that an agenda either does not work or that it has run out of ideas.

So far we have yet to see anyone lose by trivializing rape or its consequences as did Todd Akin in Missouri or Richard Mourdock in Indiana in statewide races, contradicting a trend in Missouri or the norm in Indiana. "We are conservative but we are not crazy" is one possible voting explanation of electoral behavior. The Democrats won the Senate seats despite Barack Obama losing the state by 10% or so. (Maybe the President believed that the Senate seats mattered more than the electoral votes of those states, so he did not campaign in two states taht were very close in 2008).   
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-KSN: Davis +8 on: July 25, 2014, 12:34:24 pm
He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

One can lose in a state with a large partisan edge for one for one of two things:

INCOMPETENCE

CORRUPTION



41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life on: July 25, 2014, 12:30:49 pm
It isn't 2010 anymore.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama vs impeachment on: July 25, 2014, 12:26:30 pm
Obama should be impeached. He's piled on so much debt in such a short period that the destruction of our economy via bankruptcy and runaway inflation may be inevitable at this point. Worse yet, Barack Obama has taken the position that he can rewrite any law he chooses. He thinks, he is God.

1. Whenever I see the word should in a non-predictive context "The train should be here by now" I have a low expectation of the intellectual content of what follows.

Shakespeare rarely uses it. Cervantes, Goethe, and Dostoevsky never use words that translate to it.

2. Through his bungled war and his conscious decision to cut taxes for the super-rich,  Dubya fails badly, too.

3. Manifestly false about the President "rewriting" the laws. 
43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 24, 2014, 09:52:09 pm
I know why you don't include data on states with SSM, but I think it would make the map more interesting to start including it. Just my opinion.

Here is how it started nearly three years ago (August 2011):

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:



Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Red favors SSM and blue shows disfavor on the oldest map. Green shows a tie.

The map that I show shows states with legal SSM statewide in white. I would show  the status of polls if there were some legal effort to rescind a decision -- which in practice is shown where an appeal stays the legalization of SSM.

White on my maps means 'likely to stay' in practice. Show evidence to the contrary for any state and I will adjust. A poll after legalization might be interesting, but it is likely irrelevant. Entrenched law makes public opinion irrelevant.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 24, 2014, 09:41:49 pm
Just because the U.S. is currently a secular society doesn't mean it should be.

Which sect other than yours would you prefer established the rules by which we are all to go?

We have a secular society because we could never decide upon a dominant religion.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Clinton beats Christie by 21 on: July 24, 2014, 08:10:48 pm
(posted elsewhere)
 
It is a severe outlier by Q standards.

I know! Hillary Clinton seems highly likely to win the state, but perhaps by 5% over one of the stronger R candidates. A margin greater than 10% suggests that

(1) Florida has become about as strong a D state as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,  which makes no sense in view of recent polls -- some available within the last couple of weeks. If Florida were that strongly D, then Governor Rick Scott would be staring into a landslide loss, which he is not doing even in a Q poll of the Governorship.

(2) Hillary Clinton has basically revived the Jimmy Carter coalition and grafted it onto the Obama coalition. For that to make sense I would need to see Clinton winning just about everything in the South. Carter won the state by 5% in 1976 (his fifteenth-best state); Obama won it by less than 3% in 2008. Florida has usually been a tough state for Democratic Presidential nominees to win; it was the second-weakest win for LBJ in 1964. Bill Clinton, the strongest Democratic nominee since LBJ in a Presidential election, barely lost it in 1992 and won it by 6% in 1996. We know about Florida in 2000.


Possible -- but not likely. It's not likely to contradict recent polls.

(3) Something has happened, all of a sudden, to mess up Republican chances for election or re-election nationwide. Has anyone seen anything to create such an effect? Such would show in approval ratings for President Obama, which remain awful. The Malaysian jetliner being shot down is just about neutral news for American politics.

(4) International concerns have begun to trump other concerns, and Hillary Clinton is in an excellent position to become  more desirable. Q shows the favorability of Hillary Clinton very stable -- and so are the ratings of favorability for potential R rivals. There is nothing there.  The downing of the Malaysian jetliner in dangerous airspace is just about neutral news for American politics.

Barack Obama's approval rating in Florida is in the range in which, were he running for re-election, he would barely win the state again.

Quinnipiac is usually one of my preferred pollsters, in view of its prior achievements, but this time the results seem terribly out of line. We can count on seeing frequent polls about Florida hereon. In fact, I expect to see lots of polls from neighboring Georgia  from now until November because of hotly-contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. Show Hillary Clinton up 5% against just about everyone in Georgia, and I will accept this Q poll. Show another pollster concurring with these results and I will accept it.

Pollsters can have bad days -- or bad samples -- any day. That includes Quinnipiac, which rarely has them.

If you want my assessment of the 2016 Presidential election so far -- Hillary Clinton has gone from being marginally qualified to be President in 2008 to being one of the strongest candidates that we have known for a long time. Should she win Florida 55-45 she wins nationwide at least 58-42 with over 400 electoral votes -- 440 if she gets Texas, which would probably be the closest state in that scenario.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 24, 2014, 08:05:24 pm
Quinnipiac is a well regarded and longtime pollster that was closest to the actual result in Florida in 2012. I'm not sure why you'd ignore them just because you think it's an outlier.

It is a severe outlier by Q standards. 

I know! Hillary Clinton seems highly likely to win the state, but perhaps by 5% over one of the stronger R candidates. A margin greater than 10% suggests that

(1) Florida has become about as strong a D state as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,  which makes no sense in view of recent polls -- some available within the last couple of weeks. If Florida were that strongly D, then Governor Rick Scott would be staring into a landslide loss, which he is not doing even in a Q poll of the Governorship.

(2) Hillary Clinton has basically revived the Jimmy Carter coalition and grafted it onto the Obama coalition. For that to make sense I would need to see Clinton winning just about everything in the South. Carter won the state by 5% in 1976 (his fifteenth-best state); Obama won it by less than 3% in 2008. Florida has usually been a tough state for Democratic Presidential nominees to win; it was the second-weakest win for LBJ in 1964. Bill Clinton, the strongest Democratic nominee since LBJ in a Presidential election, barely lost it in 1992 and won it by 6% in 1996. We know about Florida in 2000.


Possible -- but not likely. It's not likely to contradict recent polls.

(3) Something has happened, all of a sudden, to mess up Republican chances for election or re-election nationwide. Has anyone seen anything to create such an effect? Such would show in approval ratings for President Obama, which remain awful. The Malaysian jetliner being shot down is just about neutral news for American politics.

(4) International concerns have begun to trump other concerns, and Hillary Clinton is in an excellent position to become  more desirable. Q shows the favorability of Hillary Clinton very stable -- and so are the ratings of favorability for potential R rivals. There is nothing there.  The downing of the Malaysian jetliner in dangerous airspace is just about neutral news for American politics. 

Barack Obama's approval rating in Florida is in the range in which, were he running for re-election, he would barely win the state again. 

Quinnipiac is usually one of my preferred pollsters, in view of its prior achievements, but this time the results seem terribly out of line. We can count on seeing frequent polls about Florida hereon. In fact, I expect to see lots of polls from neighboring Georgia  from now until November because of hotly-contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. Show Hillary Clinton up 5% against just about everyone in Georgia, and I will accept this Q poll. Show another pollster concurring with these results and I will accept it.

Pollsters can have bad days -- or bad samples -- any day. That includes Quinnipiac, which rarely has them.

If you want my assessment of the 2016 Presidential election so far -- Hillary Clinton has gone from being marginally qualified to be President in 2008 to being one of the strongest candidates that we have known for a long time. Should she win Florida 55-45 she wins nationwide at least 58-42 with over 400 electoral votes -- 440 if she gets Texas, which would probably be the closest state in that scenario.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 24, 2014, 05:18:12 pm
Florida voters back Clinton over Bush 49 - 42 percent in the 2016 White House race. The Democrat tops other Republicans by wider margins:

    53 - 39 percent over Rubio;
    53 - 37 percent over Paul;
    54 - 33 percent over Christie;
    51 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Independent voters back Clinton over Bush by a narrow 45 - 41 percent. Against other Republicans, her lead among independent voters is 16 to 20 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2063

This is beyond belief. This suggests a complete political collapse by the Republican Party in Florida, which suggests a complete collapse by the Republican Party nationwide. I can at best say that I suspend my acceptance of this poll. Recent polls show Hillary Clinton up 5% or so in Florida.

The 54-33 lead over Christie looks like a misprint; I might believe 54-43. I would need to see corroboration in other states. Recent polls in Florida show Hillary Clinton up by 5% or so over non-joke candidates (Cruz, Santorum, Rubio) in Florida. She's not above 50% in such states as Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

If she is up 10% and near 50% in states generally similar to Florida in voting patterns (Ohio is the only good analogue for Florida) I can accept this. No way is Florida one of the strongest-D states in America. If it were, then Governor Rick Scott would be crashing and burning.

Of course, now that the primary contests for the Republicans are settled in Georgia, we could be seeing some corroboration.

No change-- for now.

     




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anybody think Rick Perry will run in 2016? lol lol lol on: July 24, 2014, 08:26:26 am
He can run, but he makes less sense than Krusty the Klown.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 23, 2014, 10:44:28 pm
Now that the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Georgia are set, we ought to see some polls from Georgia.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: July 23, 2014, 10:09:09 pm

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker, Burke tied in Wisconsin governor’s race
July 23, 2014

Quote
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds that the Wisconsin governor’s race remains a dead heat, with Republican Gov. Scott Walker receiving the support of 46 percent of registered voters and Democratic challenger Mary Burke receiving 45 percent support. Eight percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they would support. Fewer than 1 percent say they will vote for someone else.

........

Approval of Walker’s handing of his job as governor stands at 47 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. In May, approval was 49 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. In March, 47 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved.

.......

John Doe investigation

In the wake of the release of court documents concerning an investigation by prosecutors into possible campaign finance law violations, known as a “John Doe” proceeding, 75 percent of voters say they have heard or read about the investigation while 24 percent say they have not. Of those who have heard, 54 percent say it is “just more politics” while 42 percent say it is “really something serious.” In October 2012, 76 percent had heard of a “John Doe” investigation at that time, with 46 percent saying it was “just more politics” and 45 percent saying it was “really something serious.”
 


1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[/quote]
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