Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 27, 2015, 03:18:44 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 462
26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-Quinnipiac: Portman trailing Strickland, crushing Sittenfeld on: May 23, 2015, 02:12:05 pm
See the most recent approval poll for Portman.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee defends admitted child molester on: May 23, 2015, 08:38:58 am
Believing in redemption is scandalous.  It has always been thus.

It's fine to believe in redemption, but Huckabee goes out of his way to defend these people solely because of their Christianity. I don't believe he would be talking about redemption if this were some random child molester.


Yes, there is nothing wrong with redemption.  Being a Christian means hoping that all might one day be redeemed.  When it comes to child sex crimes and premeditated murderers, however, the perpetrators will have to seek redemption in the next world.  Not because they are inherently irredeemable, but because of public safety.    

Redemption doesn't mean that you don't have to face legal penalties.  It means that you are not defined by what you did, that you are not forever judged for it as being unworthy of respect and incapable of goodness.  If you do not believe that people can change and learn and grow from what they did in their youth, then you do not believe in redemption.

Redemption is not without a price -- namely, taking the worldly penalties (including shame, pain, imprisonment, and financial ruin) that one accepts if redemption is genuine.

A murderer is still a murderer in our world. A thief is still a thief in our world. A rapist is still a rapist in our world. If one accepts Christianity as true, then even being burned at the stake is a minor payment for eternal salvation.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CA-Field Research: D: Clinton 53% Warren 13%; R: Bush 11% Rubio 11% Walker 10% on: May 23, 2015, 07:58:14 am
Fiorina at 3% even though she ran statewide here shows how irrelevant she is.

... and where she is best known.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee defends admitted child molester on: May 22, 2015, 11:01:50 pm
His judgment of human character is just horrible.

Any good cabinet picks by him would be pure luck.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Evidence that Florida was stolen from Gore in 2000 on: May 22, 2015, 09:58:05 pm
Please move this thread to "Election results".
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: May 22, 2015, 09:52:57 pm
Field Poll, California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2506.pdf

Clinton 53
Rubio 32

Clinton 52
Bush 31

Clinton 54
Walker 30

April 23-May 16, 2015, Sample of 801 registered voters.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: May 22, 2015, 07:14:47 pm
If Sabato says that Wisconsin leans Democratic, then Republicans can kiss 'their' Senate seat in Wisconsin goodbye.

Arkansas was Lean D at this point before 2014. Your point?

Watch for a five page post with not one cogent point. I guarantee it will occur.

Blanche Lincoln faced a blistering primary challenge. That doomed her campaign.

Indiana was considered "Safe R" two years ago before some nutty right-winger primaried the venerable Richard Lugar.

33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 06:49:45 pm
Um... what is "wild" about this?

The anticlimax -- and that this is one of the earliest predictions.

 
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 06:39:47 pm
OK. People get to watch the remainder of the election on legitimate broadcasters, and they call Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, almost simultaneously -- the four states if not the networks.

I project that Hillary Clinton will win 54-46 in the popular vote, but that she does about as well in 2016 as Obama did in 2012 in those states that Obama won -- but not better. Obama maxed out those states in 2008. Iowa and Wisconsin are a little better for Walker because Walker is from Wisconsin (weak Favorite Son effect), Iowa because of the rural vote trending R, and Colorado being closer in 2016 than in 2012 because Walker is from there.

Clinton gains most of her votes in states in which Obama got crushed in 2012 -- basically any state that Obama lost in 2012 except for North Carolina. Notice that I had to dither on Kansas. I see signs that the Kansas Republican Party is splintering.

Alaska will be a quick call for Walker at 12 PM. The other four states (AZ, GA, MO, and NC) won't be decided until the next week.  
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 06:30:32 pm
Hawaii is red, wouldn't correcting that give Clinton 272?

Correction made. It would still be 268.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 06:28:48 pm
10:15 PM. Sirens! Police are here. They seem to be going to the bar area.

POLICE! This establishment is being closed due to the sale of intoxicating liquors to someone under the age of 21. Close the bar, the restaurant, the bowling alleys. Turn off the power to the "TV studio".

This is Jack Kowalski signing off.

Oh well, I at least got a palindrome for my number of posts (11511)
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 06:24:09 pm
11 PM.   Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States closing polls at this hour are:

CALIFORNIA
HAWAII
NEVADA
OREGON
WASHINGTON

Hillary  Clinton wins every one of these states and their 79 electoral votes. Three electoral votes away for Hillary Clinton becoming the 45th President of the United States and the first woman to be President of the United States.

11:05

Hillary Clinton is one electoral vote closer as she wins the Second Congressional District of Nebraska -- largely Greater Omaha. Georgia and Missouri are tightening up as votes come in from Atlanta, Kansas City, and St. Louis.







SCOTT WALKER (R) 152


HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 268







38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 06:12:49 pm
10 PM.   Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States closing polls at this hour are:

IDAHO
IOWA
MONTANA
NEVADA
NORTH DAKOTA
UTAH

Scott Walker wins Idaho, North Dakota, and Utah. Iowa and Nevada give small early leads to Hillary Clinton, but they are too close to call.

10:05 PM We call Indiana and Arkansas for Scott Walker.
    





SCOTT WALKER (R) 152


HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 178






39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 06:01:03 pm
9:40 PM.   Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

Colorado is giving an early lead to Hillary Clinton. We can now call Kansas as a Walker win.
    





SCOTT WALKER (R) 116


HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 178





40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 05:49:32 pm
Jack: At this point it looks as if Scott Walker is to win the Presidency without any of the traditionally-reliable states for Democrats on the West Coast he has to win everything not already called.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 02:41:43 pm
9:10 PM, Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

We can now call Louisiana and the First Congressional District of Nebraska for Scott Walker.  Scott Walker seems to be opening a lead in Kansas, but not enough for a call.

9:20 PM. We can finally call Virginia. Its 13 electoral votes now seem to go to Hillary Clinton. It looks close, but the votes not counted are largely coming from districts that went strongly for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 in Richmond and Norfolk. Wisconsin has a slight edge for Hillary Clinton and not the Governor of the State.
    





SCOTT WALKER (R) 110


HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 178




42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 02:12:18 pm
First of all, you are using the wrong colors. Second of all, this is the wrong section. Third of all, nobody cares about your hackish predictions and how Hillary will win a landslide in the end or how Walker will make America into a fascist hellhole.

1. It is a prediction.

2. It is fiction for now. "Jack Kowalski" is a fictional character, as is the Pirate Television Network. Get it? The site is a bowling alley.

3. I have an agenda here. Note that things are not definitively better for Hillary Clinton in this scenario than they were for Obama in 2008 or 2012.

4. At this point Scott Walker could still win, and not based on him having a miraculous win in California.

5. I show practically no analysis.

6. I am already thinking of a surprise ending.

7. Do you expect "Pirate Television Network" to show the colors as the Atlas does? ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC, and PBS don't.

8. Am I talking about Scott Walker turning America into a fascist hell-hole in this thread? You brought it up.   
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 01:58:51 pm
Jack Kowalski, again,from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

8:56. We are calling Kentucky and Tennessee. That's nineteen more electoral votes for Scott Walker, and he needs every one of them. We think that Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana and Missouri  now lean for Walker.

9:00 -- Jack Kowalski from The Pirate Television Network studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States whose polls are closing are:

ARIZONA
COLORADO
KANSAS
LOUISIANA
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
NEBRASKA
NEW MEXICO
NEW YORK
SOUTH DAKOTA
TEXAS
WISCONSIN

and

WYOMING

We project Scott Walker winning South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, and three of the five electoral votes of Nebraska. We project Hillary Clinton winning Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New York. Other states and the First and Second Districts of Nebraska are either too close to call or too early to call.
    





SCOTT WALKER (R) 101


HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 165



44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 01:29:01 pm
Jack Kowalski, again,from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

8:50 PM. The Pirate Television Network now recognizes that the miracle that Scott Walker was looking for in Pennsylvania just isn't going to happen. We also recognize that Florida is trending toward Hillary Clinton.  We don't know where the votes are coming in from in Indiana -- Fort Wayne? Scott Walker has gone from being slightly behind to slightly ahead in Indiana. In Virginia, the early advantage for Scott Walker has evaporated.  
    





SCOTT WALKER (R) 36


HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 105


45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 01:05:25 pm
8:27 from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

This is Jack Kowalski again, and with some confidence I can now call South Carolina and West Virginia for Scott Walker. 14 electoral votes can be assigned to the Republican nominee for President.

8:30. Arkansas closes. It's too close to call. We're not calling the state in which Hillary Clinton was the wife of a popular Governor. Hillary Clinton has slight but insignificant leads in Florida. Scott Walker has a slight but insignificant leads in Georgia and Missouri. We aren't going to know how Georgia or Missouri goes until we get the votes from Atlanta, Kansas City, and St. Louis. Tennessee seems to be leaning toward Scott Walker.   

8:32. We are assigning New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton. A state that has gone only once for the Republican nominee for President goes for Hillary Clinton as the votes run out.
    





SCOTT WALKER (R) 36


HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 85

46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 12:49:33 pm
8:00 from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States fully closing their polls are

ALABAMA
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
FLORIDA
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ILLINOIS
MAINE
MASSACHUSETTS
MISSISSIPPI
MARYLAND
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW JERSEY
PENNSYLVANIA
OKLAHOMA
RHODE ISLAND

and TENNESSEE

Polls in Michigan close except in some counties in the Upper Peninsula and in Texas except in the far west, which includes El Paso -- and we can't show those until  an hour from now.

We can call --

Alabama, Mississippi, and Oklahoma for Scott Walker.

Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (including both Congressional districts), Maryland, and Rhode Island for Hillary Clinton.    



Scott Walker, the Republican, can claim 22 electoral votes. He has leads, but it is still too early to call, in Kentucky, South Carolina and West Virginia. Hillary Clinton has leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, but those are too early to call. Hillary Clinton has won 81 electoral votes.  

Florida is way too close to call. Walker has early leads in Indiana, Virginia, and Tennessee, but those are too early to call. And what is going on in Georgia?
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 12:18:09 pm
7:30 from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia close. Scott Walker has a razor-thin lead in North Carolina and West Virginia, and Hillary Clinton has a thin lead in Ohio but otherwise it is too early to call. As in 2008 we may not know how North Carolina goes until tomorrow.





Hillary Clinton gets the three electoral votes of Vermont. Everything else is too close to call or too early to call.


48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 12:12:36 pm
can't you just post the end?

I'm trying to create some drama.  Don't worry -- I will get there.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 12:11:59 pm
We just got some e-mails from some silly people devoted to something called Leip's Election Atlas asking why you are putting Vermont in blue.

Simple answer -- this isn't Leip's Election Atlas. It's the Pirate Broadcasting Network in our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes.

(bowling sounds, bar chatter, clinking glasses, bleeps for foul words by patrons.


Hillary Clinton has a slight lead in Indiana; Scott Walker has slight leads everywhere else.





Hillary Clinton gets the three electoral votes of Vermont. Everything else is too close to call or too early to call.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency. on: May 22, 2015, 12:01:01 pm
...And we say Farewell! at "BOWLING FROM ZIGGY'S BAR AND LANES!"

The first states to close at 7PM are

GEORGIA
INDIANA
KENTUCKY
SOUTH CAROLINA
VERMONT

--and --

VIRGINIA

Of those, President Obama won only Vermont and Virginia in both 2008 and 2012; he also got Indiana in 2008.





Hillary Clinton gets the three electoral votes of Vermont. Everything else is too close to call or too early to call.

(note sounds of bowling in the background).
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 462


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines