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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If Republicans sweep '14 and '16... on: July 18, 2014, 10:21:05 am
Repeal it and let profits-first medicine take over as we have had. That's a cost-loading, service-cutting method that does extremely well for shareholders and executives but badly for everyone else.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Clinton loses to Paul, but beats Bush, Christie, Huckabee on: July 18, 2014, 06:59:44 am
Pretty bad poll for Clinton. Really don't see her actually losing Colorado, but the polls sure aren't great there.

This is from the same poll that has the straight-R express in the lead and this sort of expected.

 OTOH, along with the Iowa poll, this would mean that maybe Clinton will be neck and neck competitive at best or maybe Clinton will be stuck in the Northeast and have to rely on just on Florida or trying to win a state that hasn't voted Democrat this century. Maybe the strategy of winning Kerry + Ohio + Florida will barely work for her but after 2020, Democrats simply won't have enough votes.

Republicans so far rely heavily on a coalition of Corporate America, religious fundamentalists, and resource-extractors. That is not a coalition for long-term winning.

Keeping a coalition together for twelve years is a rarity in American politics. Such requires winning. FDR did it. Reagan didn't. When the Republicans elected Hoover in a landslide they thought that they had a permanent majority. By 1930 they were disabused of that idea.

By 2020 the Republicans will either start building a new coalition or they will be increasingly irrelevant. 

 
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bolton: Knowing what we know today, Iraq War was still the right decision on: July 18, 2014, 06:49:00 am
The more that Americans are reminded of the dishonesty and ruthlessness of the George W. Bush maladministration they easier it will be for them to vote against anyone with any connection to him or who tries to build bridges to it.
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 17, 2014, 03:56:03 pm
The Conch (Republic) speaks!

Quote
MIAMI (AP) — A judge in the Florida Keys has overturned the state's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage after a legal challenge by six gay couples said it effectively made them second-class citizens.

The ruling was issued Thursday by Circuit Judge Luis M. Garcia and applies only to Monroe County, which covers the Keys. The lawsuit contended that the same-sex marriage ban approved by voters in 2008 violated the U.S. Constitution's guarantee of equal protection under the law. The judge says licenses could be issued starting Tuesday.

Attorney General Pam Bondi and ban supporters argued that the referendum vote should be respected and that Florida has sole authority to define marriage in the state. The Florida amendment defined marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/17/florida-gay-marriage-ban_n_5596032.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

(It applies only to Monroe County, and not statewide).
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-Marist: Snyder (R) up 2 among RVs on: July 17, 2014, 01:46:28 pm
The way to determine a decline or improvement is to look at two polls from the same pollster. Pollsters don't generally change their polling techniques from one poll to the next. 
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 17, 2014, 01:35:27 pm
Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest: 



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012 75
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 56
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12

The controversial ones are Missouri (Georgia now looks like a good analogue for Missouri with KC + STL = ATL; it's about half Iowa and half Arkansas, which both register as ties), Tennessee (which I am placing politically about halfway between Georgia and Mississippi or Georgia and Kentucky). Until I see commanding evidence to the contrary I practically define Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia as swing states. I'm giving ND as more solidly R than SD because of the boom in natural gas in North Dakota. Indiana? NE-02? Go figure.
 
I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012. 
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 17, 2014, 12:48:22 pm
Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 17, 2014, 12:09:44 pm
I can make some conclusions:

1. Colorado and Iowa are at best shaky for Hillary Clinton.

2. New Hampshire is probably not a swing state.

3. Mississippi shows that the R stranglehold on Southern politics is weakening. 

Mississippi margins in Presidential elections:

2012   12%
2008   13%
2004   19%
2000   17%
1996     5%
1992     9%
1988   21%
1984   24%
1980     1%

1976     2%

It may be hard to believe now, but Carter came close to winning Mississippi despite a nationwide drubbing. Bill Clinton, like Jimmy Carter, was a Southern moderate running against a Yankee.

Mississippi may be reverting to its old norms in partisan identity, or partisanship could be eroding there. I cannot discern which trend is in effect in Mississippi; such cannot be told in two polls.

Missouri and Tennessee would be interesting.  With 10 and 11 electoral votes at stake in those states, those two states are not trivialities. 
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 17, 2014, 11:31:37 am
Four states polled, three of them legitimate swing states, and Mississippi gives some interesting results:

Marist, New Hampshire:

Clinton 47% Christie 42%
Clinton 47% Bush 42%
Clinton 46% Paul 43%
Clinton 48% Walker 39%
Clinton 51% Cruz 38%
Clinton 47%  Rubio 42%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821

Iowa (Marist)

Quote
In the presidential battleground state of Iowa, Clinton is tied with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. (45 percent to 45 percent), and leads New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie by just 1 point (44 percent to 43 percent).

She holds larger leads against former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (46 percent to 42 percent), Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., (49 percent to 40 percent), Sen. Ted. Cruz, R-Texas, (49 percent to 37 percent) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (50 percent to 37 percent).

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821

Mississippi (PPP)

Quote
While people never think of Mississippi as a swing state, if Hilary Clinton were to run for President in 2016 that may change. When polled against five potential Republican opponents; Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul, Clinton never has less than 42% support and is in fact tied with Cruz 44/44. For the Republicans, Huckabee has the most support in the state, beating Clinton 49/42 in a potential matchup.
That number is both the largest margin a Republican leads by and the largest percentage of support that any of the five candidates received.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MS_717.pdf

Colorado, Quinnipiac

Quote
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul is the man to beat in Colorado in an early look at the 2016 presidential race, edging former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a thin 46 - 43 percent margin. Clinton gets 42 percent to 40 percent for N.J. Gov. Christopher Christie. She tops former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 44 - 40 percent and squeaks by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 44 - 41 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2060  
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MS-PPP: Clinton trails all republicans, draw with Cruz. on: July 17, 2014, 11:15:28 am
Awful for the GOP, really.

Republican nominees have not lost Mississippi in a Presidential election since Carter won it on his 'good ol' boy' appeal in 1976. It was probably close with Bill Clinton.

Just about any Republican nominee stands to win Mississippi in 2016, but if this state is at all close, then Hillary Clinton has a huge win awaiting her.

Good news for America -- the huge polarization that one associates with Barack Obama seems to be abating. As a partisan Democrat I would love to see Iowa as a lock for her, but I see the muting of the political acrimony that has poisoned American politics as a good thing even if such favors Republicans. A President winning twenty states by margins in the high teens or more and losing a raft of states by margins in the twenties may be good for electing a President but poor for the political climate.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Clinton loses to Paul, but beats Bush, Christie, Huckabee on: July 17, 2014, 10:57:24 am
Pretty bad poll for Clinton. Really don't see her actually losing Colorado, but the polls sure aren't great there.

This is from the same poll that has the straight-R express in the lead and this sort of expected.

 OTOH, along with the Iowa poll, this would mean that maybe Clinton will be neck and neck competitive at best or maybe Clinton will be stuck in the Northeast and have to rely on just on Florida or trying to win a state that hasn't voted Democrat this century. Maybe the strategy of winning Kerry + Ohio + Florida will barely work for her but after 2020, Democrats simply won't have enough votes.

She consistently wins Virginia and Ohio, which would be enough for her even if she lost Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

Colorado has a loud libertarian movement, which probably explains why Paul does so much better (due in part to the reputation of his father Ron) in Colorado than other Republicans. 43% is likely close to his ceiling.  It is a limited constituency, as shown in Colorado for the last six years.

Colorado tends to break late for Democrats, likely due to the fast-growing Hispanic population that tends to get ignored until late. Libertarians do not do well among Hispanics.
37  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 37 Percent Of Mississippi GOPers Would Back Confederates In Civil War on: July 16, 2014, 02:57:56 pm
Even in a peaceful secession, the Confederacy would be a 3rd world country from day one.

Ummm...not even close.

If you took the states that seceded and imagine them asa new country, it would be the world's 4th largest economy with a nominal GDP of 4.86 trillion per year.  That makes it larger than the "First world" countries of Germany, France, the UK and Canada.  With a population of 101 million people (which would make it the world's 12th most populous country, and bump the U.S. down to the number 4 spot) it would have a GDP/capita of $48,118 per year.  This puts the CSA in the 7th spot with a higher GDP/capita than Switzerland, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Kuwait and Denmark to name a few.  Also with an annual GDP growth rate of 3.2% per year, I'd say that a modern-day CSA would be doing quite well by international standards.

Hardly a Third World country in my book.  Wouldn't you agree?

I am the 37 percent.  

I can't tell if this post is serious or not.  I find that quite worrying.


If we're getting a second Civil War in 2014, then its obviously not being fought over slavery or Jim Crow.

Why would I want the South - one of the best and most unique cultural regions in the entire world - to be in a country where its historically been marginalized?  The South of the 21st Century is nothing to be afraid or ashamed of, and its independence is probably a blessing in disguise for both the USA and the new CSA.    

  

The South is prosperous to the extent that it has abandoned Jim Crow practices.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Mississippi, PPP on: July 16, 2014, 02:52:59 pm
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MS_715.pdf


Q2
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thad
Cochran's job performance?
47%
Approve
..........................................................
37%
Disapprove
......................................................
16%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q3
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Travis Childers?
26%
Favorable
........................................................
27%
Unfavorable
....................................................
47%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q4
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris McDaniel?
29%
Favorable
........................................................
53%
Unfavorable
....................................................
18%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q5
If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Republican Thad Cochran, Democrat Travis
Childers, and Reform Party candidate Shawn
O’Hara, who would you vote for?
40%
Thad Cochran
.................................................
24%
Travis Childers
................................................
5%
Shawn O'Hara
................................................
31%
Undecided
.......................................................
Q6
Horse race, with O'Hara supporters asked
whether they lean Cochran or Childers
41%
Thad Cochran
.................................................
26%
Travis Childers
................................................
33%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q7
If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Republican Chris McDaniel, Democrat Travis
Childers, and Reform Party candidate Shawn
O’Hara, who would you vote for?
36%
Chris McDaniel
...............................................
37%
Travis Childers
................................................
4%
Shawn O'Hara
................................................
23%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q8
Who do you think rightfully won the Republican
nomination for the Senate: Thad Cochran or
Chris McDaniel?
58%
Thad Cochran
.................................................
29%
Chris McDaniel
...............................................
13%
Not sure
..................................

...McDaniel would have put the Senate seat in Mississippi up for grabs.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: July 16, 2014, 01:10:08 pm
PPP, Mississippi

Quote
Mississippi Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

39% Approve

54% Disapprove

7% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MS_715.pdf

Not bad in view of how Mississippi voted.




60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)









40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin on: July 16, 2014, 07:38:59 am
Quote
Despite stronger voter optimism about Colorado's economy than found in many states, the race for governor is tied, with 43 percent for Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper and 44 percent for former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters give Gov. Hickenlooper a split job approval rating, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving, compared to a 52 - 39 percent approval rating in an April 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2059

 


1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).
41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rick Santelli, creator of the Tea Party, gets his pants pulled down on CNBC on: July 15, 2014, 10:09:50 pm
The real question is why does CNBC keep bringing back a guy who has been so colossally and consistently wrong.




Why not? Were I a journalist I would love to expose someone who made pompous predictions that all went terribly wrong.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: July 15, 2014, 10:12:35 am
Marist, Colorado:

Obama approve 40%, disapprove 50%.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll%20Colorado%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_July%202014.pdf

Marist, Michigan:

Obama approve 40%, disapprove 48%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll%20Michigan%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_July%202014.pdf

No third term!



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)








43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-PPP: Kasich +1% on: July 14, 2014, 04:56:02 pm
Nothing was said of approval and disapproval. This is a weak lead for an incumbent. Ohio is not Safe R.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If the GOP impeaches Obama...... on: July 13, 2014, 07:37:36 pm
Republicans will show how weak their case is. High crimes and misdemeanors? What crimes or misdemeanors? In theory the Republicans can impeach the President for a badly-tied cravat.

They will also show how weak their appeal is. They will make fools of themselves.   
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Quinnipiac University Poll: Obama worst president since WWII on: July 13, 2014, 07:31:57 pm
This poll was released today. Do you believe the poll?

yes.



Partisan bias is obvious. Nearly 40% of the American public believe that Barack Obama is completely wrong almost all the time. The choices among Republicans are split between Dubya and Nixon (for very different reasons).

People have short memories.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Quinnipiac University Poll: Obama worst president since WWII on: July 13, 2014, 06:55:39 pm
Barack Obama polarizes America because of what he is.  

He is incompetent, without any justification, and that's what turns people off. He's an intelligent person, who went to Yale and seems to have respectable moral discipline, yet he fails quite spectacularly to wrangle Congress or achieve anything, without rampant deficit spending.

This is the story of Barack Obama, they guy who looks good on paper, but who gives in to his self-indulgent political impulses to the detriment of the nation.

I understand why people defend him, but he is easily the worst post-WWII president.

No. Dubya is still the worst since at least WWII by objective standards. He failed to heed intelligence that indicated that Osama bin Laden had begun show interest in jetliners. Because the MO of al-Qaeda was to transform heavy equipment into weapons of mass destruction, such should have raised more red flags than one could expect on May Day in Moscow under Communist rule. This would have been a good time to arrest anyone connected to al-Qaeda.

He let Karl Rove exercise power as a political boss contrary to the delegation of powers as delineated in the Constitution, making the Republican party a de facto branch of government. Unelected Party bosses wielding real power is one way to create a dictatorship. A hint: Joseph Stalin ruled the Soviet Union entirely as a Party Boss through a weak formal government.

He fostered an economic bubble whose shaky basis was reckless borrowing against gains best described as pure speculation upon predatory lending. A wise conservative would have based prosperity upon greater investment in job-creating plant and equipment that allows people to earn solid incomes that support home ownership and purchases of high-ticket items. The Dubya-era bubble cut into the manufacturing base and promoted imports.

His economic reforms were promoted solely to enrich people who were under no economic distress.

He got America into a bungled war based on lies. People around him outed a CIA operative as revenge against an American hero who had exposed that Saddam Hussein

He grossly mismanaged a response to a natural disaster, failing at what most Presidents have done well.

Despite having compliant majorities in the House and Senate for the first six years of his Presidency he has little record of legislative achievement other than tax cuts for the super-rich.

He took a country well regarded internationally and inspired anti-Americanism that one can ascribe completely to him and not to some design in Moscow or Beijing.

As one commenter said, he is the antithesis of the three highest-regarded Presidents (Washington, Lincoln, and FDR) who took a deeply-divided America and brought it together -- taking a country with few rifts and, through his incompetence, creating new rifts and expanding those that already existed.

Foreign policy -- disaster.
Economic stewardship -- atrocious.
Maintaining credibility of the US -- awful.     

I'm a liberal -- but if some liberal President had failed to respond to intelligence against al-Qaeda, had let a Democratic Party boss wield un-Constitutional power, fostered a real estate bubble on predatory lending that subsequently imploded much like the Crash of 1929, had gotten America into a war based on lies, had mishandled a natural disaster, and had little success in enacting legislation despite a compliant Congress, I would have to rate that President very low.       
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Todd Akin on the GOP ticket? on: July 13, 2014, 07:59:37 am
He lost what looked at one time like an easy seat to pick up in a general election in which the incumbent President lost by 10%.

The joke is too obvious.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bolton: Knowing what we know today, Iraq War was still the right decision on: July 13, 2014, 07:32:23 am
Dubya set in motion a horrible chain of events by invading Iraq in a war for profit and control of oil on a foundation of lies. It is arguable that ISIS is far worse than Saddam Hussein was. Saddam took prisoners!

If we end up at war with ISIS (which I consider practically inevitable because ISIS is the sort of totalitarian entity that never negotiates), then blame goes to Dubya.
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: July 12, 2014, 10:02:28 pm
Might I humbly suggest just tracking popularity/approval of same-sex marriage by state?

Legality of same-sex marriage, or court rulings that might reflect this legality, could be considered a separate issue and included on a map of "legal status of same-sex marriage." This would really simplify the map. Plus it would be interesting to know, say, whether Iowans have come around to the policies their state supreme court imposed on them, or whether they continue to resist.

You are welcome to start your 'rival' map.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 12, 2014, 01:50:39 pm
PPP is polling Mississippi this week and Colorado next week. Both should be extremely interesting.

No Democratic nominee for President has won Mississippi since 1976 (Carter); the conditions in which Carter won Mississippi are long past.

The state that would really be interesting is Tennessee.
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