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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 26, 2015, 09:45:13 am
Could we please have the pure nonsense of non-existent polls and maps derived from those deleted?
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 26, 2015, 06:34:15 am
Again, this thread is even more ridiculous. What's the point of having an "official" polling map thread that excludes most of the polls showing the Democratic candidate behind?

I have seen junk polls, most of which come from advocacy groups. Polls gotten by biased organizations (labor unions, ethnic advocacy groups, and trade associations) are worthless unless they fill in for a state not already polled. Some polls just have incredible demographics that could only distort the results.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 25, 2015, 04:23:45 pm
Why not Mitchell in Michigan?

There are huge differences by age:
 While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump
trails by 20%.
 However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while
Bush trails by 16%.
 All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up
by 27% and Bush by 21%.
 All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and
Bush by 8%.
 All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is
behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

Want to buy a used car from these folks?

Why not Epic/MRA in Michigan?

2012 electorate:

39% Moderate
35% Conservative
26% Liberal

40% Democrat
30% Republican
30% Independent

2016 (according to EpicMRA) electorate:

33% Moderate (- 6% compared to 2012)
37% Conservative (+ 2%)
21% Liberal (- 5%)
9% Undecided

42% Democrat (+ 2%)
37% Republican (+ 7%)
15% Independent (- 15% !)
6% Undecided

Is there any reason to believe that Michigan is getting an infusion of 'conservative' voters or is hemorrhaging 'liberal' voters?

If the demographics make no sense, then the poll is junk. 


29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 25, 2015, 04:18:50 pm
Virginia -- Close, except with Trump:

Clinton 45
Trump 32

Clinton 42
Bush 41

Clinton 42
Walker 38

Clinton 41
Rubio 40

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Politics%20Aug%202015.Topline.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 25, 2015, 04:15:21 pm
Close, except with Trump:

Clinton 45
Trump 32

Clinton 42
Bush 41

Clinton 42
Walker 38

Clinton 41
Rubio 40

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Politics%20Aug%202015.Topline.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 25, 2015, 05:33:25 am
Mitchell and Epic/MRA polls have a tradition of being extremely R-favoring. See also Susquehanna polling of Pennsylvania. Pollsters who do one state and look like outliers are suspect.

We now see a sorting-out of Republican candidates even when it is comparatively cheap to stay in nominal contention. For now, "Establishment" Republicans like Bush, Christie, and Walker seem on the fade.

...I am surprised that people see less problem with my slowness to add Donald Trump to the maps. Who am I to drop? One of the biggest fund-raisers for Scott Walker has apparently talked of defecting to Trump.   

   
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble on: August 23, 2015, 11:46:06 am
Cook PVI, by state



90% saturation for D+15 or R+15 or greater
70% saturation for 12 to 14, inclusively  
50% saturation for 10 or 11, inclusively
40% saturation for 6 to 9, inclusively
30% saturation for 3 to 5, inclusively
20% saturation for 1 or 2, inclusively  
white -- zero PVI
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble on: August 22, 2015, 09:00:57 pm
These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.

That word in bold is why many folks, dare I use the word, find your little analyses annoying. Btw, in my universe Florida is about even in PVI, so assuming you think PVI has some use at all, what that means is that you're saying the Pubs might as well not bother contesting the Presidency anymore. Resistance is futile. In fact, all the Pubs should register as Dems, so that way, odds are a moderate Dem will be POTUS. That is sort of the way NY is going. Registering Pub is an act of "disenfrancisement" basically, unless you have a patronage job in a Pub controlled jurisdiction, where being of the party in power is a condition of employment.

Oh, gerrymandering might be worth about 15 seats net for the Pubs, but I digress.  Unless you mean gerrymandering in favor of the Dems is the only kind of map that is not gerrymandering, because you need to gerrymander in favor of the Dems, to correct for the geographic packing of Dems in the inner portions of large metro areas.

Sigh.

My guess of statewide PVI in those three states:

FL R+2
OH R+1
PA  D+3


34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker under fire for suggesting only “handful” of Muslims are moderate on: August 22, 2015, 10:12:29 am
What's the obsession with calling them 'radical Islamic terrorists'

In Iraq, Saddam Hussein was the 'moderate' Muslim; he was simply devoid of moral values -- which is far more dangerous than holding extreme values. The Shiites were anything but moderate in Iraq under a Ba'athist rule that created for all practices a religious Apartheid. The Shiites in Iraq have been our allies against Saddam Hussein and against ISIS. 

35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble on: August 21, 2015, 10:30:48 am
These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 21, 2015, 08:07:47 am
FL should be blue on the Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio map.

Correction made.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: I would ban teachers' lounges on: August 20, 2015, 06:51:41 pm
He  must not recognize that teacher grade papers there and discuss techniques. It's muh like a break room in private industry.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: August 20, 2015, 04:09:26 pm
Parkinsonism kills. It also gives one the appearance of erratic behavior due to involuntary twitches of muscles.

Retirement watch. 
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble on: August 20, 2015, 03:55:50 pm
This is largely her own doing, because she keeps ignoring questions about the server scandal.

No. If you are explaining you are losing.

Leave it up to the people who can investigate it properly.

...If we believe Quinnipiac, then the Republican  steamroller of 2016 is preparing to crush American liberalism once and for all and establish the Christian and Corporate State.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 20, 2015, 03:53:10 pm
The Daily Appalachian/Mark Halperin University poll:

West Virginia

Clinton: 84%
Bush: 9%
Undecided: 7%

Clinton: 80%
Rubio: 17%
Undecided: 3%

Kentucky

Clinton: 75%
Bush: 14%
Undecided: 11%

Clinton: 70%
Rubio: 25%
Undecided: 5%

Tennessee

Clinton: 64%
Bush: 22%
Undecided: 14%

Clinton: 60%
Rubio: 20%
Undecided: 20%

Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without WV, KY and TN... Hillary Clinton is doing much better with White Southern women here. Obama got slaughtered McGovern-style in those states. If Clinton is winning key Republican strongholds, there is NO PATH TO VICTORY for the GOP.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Save this one for April Fool's Day.

I might come up with some polls from "Loof-Lirpa" Polling Institute that day.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 20, 2015, 03:51:17 pm
Quinnipiac, FL, OH, PA:

(FL) Bush tops Clinton 49 - 38 percent and Rubio leads 51 - 39 percent while Trump gets 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent.

(OH) Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for Bush. Rubio has 42 percent to Clinton's 40 percent while Clinton tops Trump 43 - 38 percent.

(PA) Bush gets 43 percent to 40 percent for Clinton. Rubio tops Clinton 47 - 40 percent while Clinton beats Trump 45 - 40 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

...What does Quinnipiac mean by "voters"? Those who voted in 2014?

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Possible three-way race, Clinton/Bush/Trump on: August 20, 2015, 03:02:20 pm
Quinnipiac -- Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

If Trump makes a third-party run, results are:

    Florida - Clinton at 37 percent, with 36 percent for Bush and 19 percent for Trump;
    Ohio - Clinton over Bush 37 - 27 percent, with 23 percent for Trump;
    Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Bush 37 - 29 percent, with Trump at 24 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

To be charitable and cautious I am calling Florida a tie.



Clinton wins three states that the Republican nominee absolutely must win in this scenario to have a chance.

OK -- the first-place/second-place margins matter more than the lead.  For each state in which the leader has less than 50% I can show the margin where one expects the electoral vote.  



Clinton (D)
Bush (R)
Trump (I)


43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 20, 2015, 02:54:27 pm
I just haven't gotten to them yet.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble on: August 20, 2015, 02:53:30 pm
Not until the matter of the e-mails is resolved.  These show how Hillary Clinton will be perceived if she is shown to be a wrong-doer  with respect to the e-mails.

I thought it was pretty much proven she didn't do anything wrong in this "scandal."

Not on FoX "News". I'm surprised that the hidden e-mails aren't about her participation in a witches' coven in which the witches cast aborted fetuses into a cauldron -- at least in the universe of FoX "News".
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble on: August 20, 2015, 02:47:56 pm
These are nonsense polls.

Not until the matter of the e-mails is resolved.  These show how Hillary Clinton will be perceived if she is shown to be a wrong-doer  with respect to the e-mails.  These polls say how she is seen in late August 2015. FoX News is making every possible mention of the e-mails.

If nothing is shown to be wrong and the public has no perception of a cover-up, or that people have forgotten the issue, then these polls become irrelevant.  Not wrong -- just irrelevant.

I am in no position to predict how the matter will be resolved. The only prediction that I can make is that by November 2016 people will have more pressing concerns, like foreign policy and the economy.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Wi-Marquette: Clinton leads Walker by 10 on: August 20, 2015, 02:41:39 pm
Wisconsin residents know Scott Walker as no other people do.  This is a bad sign for him, as this suggests the more that people get to know him, the less they will like him.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 20, 2015, 02:39:57 pm
Wisconsin, Marquette Law School:

Quote
Looking ahead to possible general election preferences of Wisconsin voters:

    Clinton 47, Bush 42.
    Clinton 52, Walker 42.
    Clinton 50, Cruz 38.
    Clinton 51, Trump 35.

In April, the results showed Clinton leading Bush 49-38. She led Walker 52-40 and Cruz 52-36. Trump was not matched against Clinton in the April poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

No real change in Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is within the Democratic firewall.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Donald Trump's appeal as a candidate exactly? on: August 19, 2015, 11:18:22 am
Many are dissatisfied with the results of the political process, and many want a solution who is not a politician. See also the rise of Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Possible three-way race, Clinton/Bush/Trump on: August 19, 2015, 11:15:52 am
So this thread is simply intended to include a map with the state-by-state polling results for Bush/Clinton/Trump?  You already have the "official polling map" thread on the polling board for that kind of thing.  Just use that.


The official polling map has begun to have trouble as the 2016 Presidential election has itself become more complicated due to a widening of the field should it remain a 'simple' binary race. 

Here we have a three-way race, a very different critter.  I think this is better kept separate from the "official polling map" which could get very messy very fast. This map, so far, is reasonably neat.   
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Possible three-way race, Clinton/Bush/Trump on: August 19, 2015, 11:11:37 am
I am oddly OK with this so long as we don't get bad analysis to go with it. We realize if Clinton doesn't get 270, it will go to the GOP house. And a 4 point lead in Missouri won't result in any strategic voting during a 3-way race? For once I'll say, go ahead pbrower, just don't draw any infuriatingly misguided conclusions from data that is guaranteed to change.

I promise -- I won't do any crazy analysis.

Polling reality will change as perceptions change.
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