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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NH close to becoming 19th state to abolish the death penalty on: April 14, 2014, 08:27:53 am
Totally unrelated:

NH has a House with 400 members ?

In a state with only 1 Mio. people ?

Tongue

The NH House has more members than a majority of sovereign countries:  http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_legislatures_by_number_of_members

Each member is paid only $200 for the entire two-year session.

A model state in so many regards......

Imagine if this system was implemented at the federal level?

Only wealthy people could go in politics?
The State HoR is a part-time job, congressman isn't.

Make congressman work part time, force them to get jobs back home. The Swiss do it that way in fact.

The political power of USA and Switzerland isn't similar, through.

The Swiss federal model is an imitation of the US system of about 1815. It's not the other way around.
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 14, 2014, 08:25:18 am
Outlier.

No way is the President doing 12% worse in Minnesota than in Wisconsin.
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Keep on digging, Louisiana. Keep on digging. on: April 14, 2014, 05:48:27 am
Wouldn't the complete works of William Shakespeare have more and better lessons?
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ben Stein's "humble observation": Poor people are lazy, ugly, drunken dumbs on: April 13, 2014, 09:39:58 pm
Remember when Ben Stein had like a second moment in the sun during the 90s?

Everyone wanted to win his money.

Apparently not enough people actually did.

Producers put up the money for prizes.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can we please on: April 13, 2014, 08:32:10 pm
Rodgers wouldn't be picked to help win her state she would be picked because she's a women something the GOP ticket desperately needs against someone like Clinton. She's a conventional safe choice she's not Bachmann type crazy she's a Establishment mainstream pub who's acceptable nationwide.
Kelly Ayotte is too and she's at least a senator who could help in New Hampshire. As for women, they've also got Susana Martinez, Condi Rice, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem (not qualified but no less so than CMR), Deb Fischer, and others, all of whom are at least as good of choices as McMorris Rodgers.

Kristi Noem has a huge collection of speeding tickets -- evidence of contempt for the people that the law is intended to protect. One was for 57 in a 25 zone (probably a school zone). Speeding at that level kills.
Speeding tickets? Really?

I'd use those against her if I were a political opponent as proof of her contempt for some parts of the law. Would you vote for a tax cheat?
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can we please on: April 12, 2014, 11:25:44 pm
Rodgers wouldn't be picked to help win her state she would be picked because she's a women something the GOP ticket desperately needs against someone like Clinton. She's a conventional safe choice she's not Bachmann type crazy she's a Establishment mainstream pub who's acceptable nationwide.
Kelly Ayotte is too and she's at least a senator who could help in New Hampshire. As for women, they've also got Susana Martinez, Condi Rice, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem (not qualified but no less so than CMR), Deb Fischer, and others, all of whom are at least as good of choices as McMorris Rodgers.

Kristi Noem has a huge collection of speeding tickets -- evidence of contempt for the people that the law is intended to protect. One was for 57 in a 25 zone (probably a school zone). Speeding at that level kills.
32  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NH close to becoming 19th state to abolish the death penalty on: April 12, 2014, 07:18:32 pm


I applaud this movement.

Am I the only person shocked that West Virginia doesn't have the death penalty?

I would think the land of Hatfields and McCoys and Appalachian frontier justice would be less soft.

West Virginia used to be a very liberal state in many respects. That is over. 
33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Federal government surrenders to armed right wing militia in Nevada on: April 12, 2014, 07:17:19 pm
The Feds can do all sorts of things -- like close the roads to the ranch and cut off the water. If he can't get water for the stock or sell the stock on the market, then he might give in. The IRS might find itself useful in the event that Bundy has made any misstatement on tax forms.

   
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris McDaniel 2016 on: April 12, 2014, 07:13:28 pm
If he wins the MS Senate seat in 2014, could he be a factor in 2016 (probably as a VP candidate)?

He would lose any part of America proud of its renunciation of segregationism. That includes Texas. He would lose a raft of states (the Dakotas, maybe Nebraska and even Kansas) that Democrats seem to never win. 

One-term Senator after two years and just to the left of David DuKKKe? No way!
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Huckabee's ceiling against Clinton in the Electoral College? on: April 12, 2014, 07:09:58 pm
Next week, PPP shows its results from Texas. Being from Arkansas gives one no great advantage in Texas; Bill Clinton lost the state twice. Until PPP results come out for Texas I am going to remain silent about the floor.

Huckabee is close to his ceiling. He gets most of his current exposure on Faux News Channel, which means he gets heavy attention from people on the Right but little from the rest of America. His floor in the popular vote is about 45%, which puts Texas in play for Hillary Clinton.

Ceiling? 56% popular vote following a failed Obama Administration with a economic collapse or a diplomatic/military debacle. That's about how Eisenhower did against Stevenson. In such a case



shows what an Eisenhower-style win in the popular vote would look like for a Republican following a President then reviled as a failure much as Truman was then seen.

407 Huckabee (R)
131 Clinton (D)


with Clinton wins restricted to the extreme in the Northeast and on the Pacific Coast. She still avoids a Carter-style loss because two of the states that she wins are California and New York.
 
 
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why has the Middle Class so declined? on: April 12, 2014, 02:36:53 pm
We have horrible fiscal and monetary policies that completely eradicate the middle class.

The monetary policies at the least have forced the rewards for saving to near zero. Tax policies effectively give every advantage to giant, vertically-integrated businesses  -- most notably an effective flat tax on business income while allowing giant entities to write off costs of squeezing small-scale competitors (and small business owners have long been much of the middle class) into oblivion.
37  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: April 12, 2014, 02:12:57 pm
Louisiana: 42-53 opposed.  (The link has conflicting numbers on the opposition, I had to dig into the poll pdf itself to find the actual opposition number).

nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/04/gay_civil_unions_medical_marij.html

Category change.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NH close to becoming 19th state to abolish the death penalty on: April 12, 2014, 02:11:36 pm


I applaud this movement.

Yellow stands for states that have abolished the death penalty for new crimes but may still impose it on murderers convicted before the repeal -- like the two perpetrators of the horrendous multiple crimes (including murder, robbery, and rape) committed against the family of Dr. Pettit.

Capital punishment is administered so capriciously that it has no rationality.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-St. Norbert College: Gov. Walker (R) with massive lead on: April 11, 2014, 09:17:21 am
This has usually been a pollster debunked quickly.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would you react to a Thune or Portman VP pick in 2016? on: April 11, 2014, 09:14:37 am
The VP choice can sabotage an electoral effort but can't rescue it.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Hilldog basically ahead by double digits on: April 11, 2014, 09:12:59 am
First rule of elections is that the undecideds break 100% for the Republican Party, so Clinton is actually trailing everyone except Huckabee.

It depends upon the state. In general, I have largely seen that the undecided break ineffectively toward the loser. If the split is 64-20, even a 100% break among the undecided toward the eventual loser still indicates a landslide. Also, if a nominee has a ceiling  far short of 50%, then a 42-41 lead can become a 56-44 loss (look at Obama in the Dakotas in 2008). 

Michigan is the sort of state in which the Republican nominee often has a ceiling around 45%.

So normally I expect 10%+ leads to shrink.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: April 10, 2014, 08:20:34 pm
PPP, NC

Quote
PPP continues to find that North Carolina is likely to maintain its new found swing state status in 2016 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate for President. Clinton leads all of her potential Republican opponents in the state by small margins- it's 45/44 over Jeb Bush, 46/44 over Chris Christie, 47/43 over Rand Paul, and 48/43 over Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is the first choice of Republican voters in the state- 22% say they'd like him as the nominee to 18% for Jeb Bush, 12% each for Chris Christie and Ted Cruz, 9% each for Rand Paul and Paul Ryan, 7% for Scott Walker, 5% for Marco Rubio, and 2% for Bobby Jindal. Huckabee leads based on his strength with 'very conservative' voters, while Bush does better with moderates.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: April 10, 2014, 08:15:37 pm
-In 2012 North Carolinians voted by a 22 point margin to ban gay marriage in the state. Now less than 2 years later voters say they oppose gay marriage by only 13 points, mirroring the kind of movement we've seen on the issue across the country. 40% say they think it should be legal to 53% who continue to think it should be illegal. Showing the direction things are headed in on the issue, 62% of young voters support it to only 33% who believe it should be illegal.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Category change.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


44  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Any Southern Democrats Left On Here? on: April 10, 2014, 11:51:57 am
Blacks vote strongly D in the South. However conservative they may be on some social issues, they are usually liberal on economics.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Democratic Party after the 1984 elections: on: April 09, 2014, 11:59:58 pm
Realignments happen under the cover of blowout losses. The winning coalition in blowouts eventually gets people with interests diametrically opposite each other; this creates rifts that the Other Side can then exploit.

One of my favorite techniques is to contrast two elections to show what states one nominee won to what another one won. Example: Bill Clinton won a raft of states in the West, Midwest, and Northeast that Carter lost in a bare win in 1976 -- states that Democrats have largely won since then.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: California-1988 on: April 09, 2014, 11:45:48 pm
In 1988 Michigan was the tipping-point state, the difference between 260 and 281 electoral votes.  Dukakis needed a shift of nearly 8% of the vote nationwide to win.

Crime was the proxy for "race" that year. Since then, liberals have gone from seeing crooks as victims of economic distress to unforgivable sociopaths.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Hillary 2016 vs. Hoover 1928 on: April 09, 2014, 11:23:55 pm
Barack Obama isn't exactly Calvin Coolidge.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Was Paul Ryan a good VP pick for Mitt Romney? on: April 09, 2014, 11:20:20 pm
He had never won a statewide election in Wisconsin, and by October he was defending his House seat.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Hilldog basically ahead by double digits on: April 09, 2014, 11:17:19 pm
Margins for Michigan since 1992 (all D):

2012   9
2008  16
2004   3
2000   5
1996  13
1992   7

 
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 09, 2014, 08:38:31 pm
St. Norbert's College, Wisconsin:

Approval 48, disapproval 50%

http://www.snc.edu/sri/docs/2014/201404frequencies.pdf

No need for a new map.
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