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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: June 28, 2016, 04:24:08 am
  


AZ : http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
Trump - 44 Clinton - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 41 Trump - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Clinton - 43 Trump - 39

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Clinton - 44 Trump - 40

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 46 Trump - 42

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Clinton - 47 Trump - 38    


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Averaging in Ohio and Arizona.


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.




27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX-University of Texas/Texas Politics Project: Trump +8 on: June 27, 2016, 05:22:21 pm
Here's how I predict states (and three districts) going in the election -- state and the Clinton electoral vote after each win between 226 and 450 electoral votes, Wisconsin to Texas:

Wisconsin 226
Pennsylvania 246
New Hampshire 250
Iowa 256
Nevada 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 313
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

...I did not miss New Mexico. It is Safe D.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX-University of Texas/Texas Politics Project: Trump +8 on: June 27, 2016, 03:51:05 pm
Explanation of how Clinton is up 5 points nationally, but the EC is close??

 

The states have been extremely polarized while Barack Obama has been President. He generally wins by big margins or loses by big margins. Not many states can take simple swings from favoring Republicans to going to the Democratic side.

The gains for Hillary Clinton from Obama 2012 so far are from states unlikely to vote for her -- states that went 60-40 for Republicans in 2012.  If she gains 7% in all states that Obama lost, then she picks up North Carolina.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: June 27, 2016, 12:57:55 pm
Texas, UT-Austin

Trump 39
Clinton 32
Johnson 7
Other 14
Don't know 8

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/university-texas-texas-politics-project-poll-shows-trump-leading-clinton-amidst-signs-disunity

Not that I trust any Texas poll due to the built-in difficulties of polling the state. The 8% lead is very weak.  In recent years Texas suburbs have been very strongly Republican. What distinguishes these suburbs from older suburbs of Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, and even San Francisco is that Texas suburbs are newer and have yet to have the great costs of maintenance that one associates with older infrastructure. Demolition of tract houses with their replacement by apartment complexes, a commonplace act with 70-year-old tract houses at their useful lives (those are post-WWII houses associated with returning war veterans, and those houses are now obsolete if not in poor shape) implies needs for the improvement of highways and sewers and expansion of waste-treatment facilities. Texas suburbs do not yet have those problems, so right-wing pols can still flourish there. See also Georgia and Arizona.

 Donald Trump is the worst cultural match for President that the Republicans have offered or will offer Texas since at least Gerald Ford in 1976. Ford lost that year to Jimmy Carter. In the event of a collapse of the Trump campaign that allows Texas to go Democratic, Hillary Clinton will have about 450 electoral votes.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2016/06/poll-clinton-has-huge-lead-over-trump-in-nj-103338
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160629/

Clinton 52
Trump 31

Clinton 44
Trump 32
Johnson 9

Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Three-way race:





White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


Pennsylvania 246
New Hampshire 250
Iowa 256
Nevada 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 313
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: June 27, 2016, 12:45:07 pm


Texas, UT-Austin

Trump 41
Clinton 33
Other 19
Don't know 8

Trump 39
Clinton 32
Johnson 7
Other 14
Don't know 8

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/university-texas-texas-politics-project-poll-shows-trump-leading-clinton-amidst-signs-disunity

Not that I trust any Texas poll due to the built-in difficulties of polling the state. The 8% lead is very weak.  In recent years Texas suburbs have been very strongly Republican. What distinguishes these suburbs from older suburbs of Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, and even San Francisco is that Texas suburbs are newer and have yet to have the great costs of maintenance that one associates with older infrastructure. Demolition of tract houses with their replacement by apartment complexes, a commonplace act with 70-year-old tract houses at their useful lives (those are post-WWII houses associated with returning war veterans, and those houses are now obsolete if not in poor shape) implies needs for the improvement of highways and sewers and expansion of waste-treatment facilities. Texas suburbs do not yet have those problems, so right-wing pols can still flourish there. See also Georgia and Arizona.

Republicans from Reagan on (Carter was the last Democrat to win Texas as a Democratic nominee -- forty years ago) have well fit Texas. Trump may be pushing the line.       


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.





[/quote]
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX-University of Texas/Texas Politics Project: Trump +8 on: June 27, 2016, 12:33:00 pm
Texas has had an anomaly of so many suburban voters going for Republicans. Maybe the suburbs around Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin are newer and have infrastructure that doesn't yet have the high costs of maintenance and management that one associates with older suburbs of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and St. Louis.   

See also Georgia and Arizona for a similar effect. Orange County in California fits the pattern.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 27, 2016, 06:37:47 am
I do find it interesting how consistently Clinton's lead has been coming from doing better than Obama with white voters, with the Hispanic vote barely budging from 2012.  Trump is consistently at or over 20% with Hispanics, so I think we need to start taking that possibility seriously.
Most national polls don't do a very consistent job of capturing a good picture of how Latino voters will actually break on election day.

Distribution of partisanship within an ethnic group is well established. What is hard to predict at times is voter turnout. So if Democrats are successful in getting Hispanics out to vote in high numbers, then they can get more electoral successes.   But this is not predictable.

...Barack Obama may be one of the slickest politicians ever, but he also got strong negatives from white voters in the Mountain and Deep South. The white vote for Obama was about normal for a Democrat in the northeastern quadrant of the US and the far and Mountain West, but far below average for a Democrat -- almost in McGovern-Mondale territory -- in Mississippi (the definition of the Deep South), West Virginia (the definition of the Mountain South), and Georgia (which straddles both regions). It will take a huge rebound for any Democratic nominee to make states in the Mountain and Deep South competitive again. 

As this election approached I thought that Hillary Clinton would do about as well as Obama did in 2012 in the northeastern quadrant and the West, which is good enough to win. I also expected her to get rebounds to levels of support characteristic of Al Gore in the Mountain and Deep South, which would not be enough to win there. This assumed a reasonably-competent Republican capable of holding the recent GOP coalition together.

Of course we all know how assumptions go. She is doing about as well as Obama in the Northeast and the West.  But Trump is simply awful.     
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI on: June 26, 2016, 12:45:20 pm
If Democrats get the Hispanic vote out in Colorado and Nevada, they win. Big.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: June 26, 2016, 12:40:19 pm

Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4

Add or replace: CO 1 FL 1 NC 1 WI 2

Stein strength map (why not?)

35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: June 26, 2016, 12:02:14 pm
Arkansas should be blue on the map, not red.

Correction made promptly. 
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Updated Senate rankings on: June 26, 2016, 11:59:10 am
Senate approvals, from CBS/YouGov:


But they also polled the approval ratings of the Senators:

Michael Bennet (CO): +20 (60/40)

Ron Johnson: (WI) +2 (51/49)
Marco Rubio (FL): -12 (44/56)
Richard Burr (NC): -20 (40/60)


Johnson has been shown to be going down in most polls. I can't see what he is doing right all of a sudden. The approval rating for Bennett may be overstated, too. 

Bennet is apparently out of danger. Rubio and Burr -- in trouble. 
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: June 26, 2016, 11:52:54 am
He's down in AZ, PA, and MO. and needs all three just to stay level. Trump's in big trouble.

It gets worse if you are a Republican.  

CBS/YouGov, CO/FL/NC/WI. Likely voters, which usually expands to the benefit of Democrats in a Presidential year.



I am averaging an earlier poll for North Carolina which shows Hillary Clinton behind by an equal level.



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.




38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: June 26, 2016, 11:41:10 am
Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, CBS/YouGov. Gold mine.




Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear





Three-way race:





White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
[/quote]
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: June 26, 2016, 11:18:53 am
Maine, U-New Hampshire... It's complicated.

Hillary Clinton is up 7 overall in the state but nearly tied in the Second Congressional District.
Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in a new Maine poll from the Portland Press Herald, but both are deeply unpopular and Trump is within striking distance in the state’s northern half.

The poll doesn’t tell us much new about the 2016 race for the White House in Maine: Public sentiment, as measured by the new poll, barely moved since another March poll, but while the Democrat should be favored, Trump can’t be counted out to win at least one of the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. A candidate who loses Maine’s overall vote could walk away with one Electoral College vote if he or she garnered a majority in one of the two congressional districts although that has never happened.

In the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, it appears Trump has an opening this year.

Statewide, Clinton received 42 percent of support to Trump’s 35 percent in the poll of more than 609 Mainers. Another 19 percent said they’d vote for another candidate and 4 percent were undecided.

Statewide:


Clinton 42
Trump 35
Other 19
Undecided 4

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district/

Arkansas, Hendrix College/Talk Business

A new survey among frequent Arkansas general election voters finds Republican presumptive Presidential nominee Donald Trump with an 11-point lead over Democratic presumptive Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

The latest poll from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College was conducted on Tuesday, June 21, 2016 among 751 Arkansas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.

Survey respondents were asked:

Q: If the 2016 election were held today and your choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

36%   Hillary Clinton
47%   Donald Trump
8%     Gary Johnson
9%     Don’t Know

Additionally, survey respondents were asked if their Presidential selections were based on support for a candidate or in opposition to a candidate.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/tbp-hendrix-poll-trump-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-arkansas/

Weak in contrast to the rejection that Arkansas showed for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.




Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



Three-way race:





White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Saint Leo University: Clinton +8 nationally, +15 in Florida on: June 26, 2016, 11:00:51 am
Florida more Democratic than the US as a whole by 7%? I find this hard to believe. Donald Trump has yet to say "Fidel es mi amigo!", which really would make that possible.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-UNH: Clinton +7 overall, -2 in ME-02 on: June 25, 2016, 09:26:17 pm
It's possible. See Nebraska in 2008, when Obama won NE-02 (mostly greater Omaha) while losing the rest of the state handily.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: June 25, 2016, 09:18:58 pm
Maine, U-New Hampshire... It's complicated.

Hillary Clinton is up 7 overall in the state but nearly tied in the Second Congressional District.
Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in a new Maine poll from the Portland Press Herald, but both are deeply unpopular and Trump is within striking distance in the state’s northern half.

The poll doesn’t tell us much new about the 2016 race for the White House in Maine: Public sentiment, as measured by the new poll, barely moved since another March poll, but while the Democrat should be favored, Trump can’t be counted out to win at least one of the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. A candidate who loses Maine’s overall vote could walk away with one Electoral College vote if he or she garnered a majority in one of the two congressional districts although that has never happened.

In the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, it appears Trump has an opening this year.

Statewide, Clinton received 42 percent of support to Trump’s 35 percent in the poll of more than 609 Mainers. Another 19 percent said they’d vote for another candidate and 4 percent were undecided.

Statewide:


Clinton 42
Trump 35
Other 19
Undecided 4

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district/

Arkansas, Hendrix College/Talk Business

A new survey among frequent Arkansas general election voters finds Republican presumptive Presidential nominee Donald Trump with an 11-point lead over Democratic presumptive Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

The latest poll from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College was conducted on Tuesday, June 21, 2016 among 751 Arkansas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.

Survey respondents were asked:

Q: If the 2016 election were held today and your choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

36%   Hillary Clinton
47%   Donald Trump
8%     Gary Johnson
9%     Don’t Know

Additionally, survey respondents were asked if their Presidential selections were based on support for a candidate or in opposition to a candidate.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/tbp-hendrix-poll-trump-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-arkansas/

Weak in contrast to how Arkansas rejected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.





White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME:D7.??;4




Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)










43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: June 25, 2016, 09:15:33 pm
Maine, U-New Hampshire

Hillary Clinton is up 7 overall in the state but nearly tied in the Second Congressional District.
Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in a new Maine poll from the Portland Press Herald, but both are deeply unpopular and Trump is within striking distance in the state’s northern half.

The poll doesn’t tell us much new about the 2016 race for the White House in Maine: Public sentiment, as measured by the new poll, barely moved since another March poll, but while the Democrat should be favored, Trump can’t be counted out to win at least one of the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. A candidate who loses Maine’s overall vote could walk away with one Electoral College vote if he or she garnered a majority in one of the two congressional districts although that has never happened.

In the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, it appears Trump has an opening this year.

Statewide, Clinton received 42 percent of support to Trump’s 35 percent in the poll of more than 609 Mainers. Another 19 percent said they’d vote for another candidate and 4 percent were undecided.

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district/

Arkansas -- Hendrix College, Talk Business

Q: If the 2016 election were held today and your choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

36%   Hillary Clinton
47%   Donald Trump
8%     Gary Johnson
9%     Don’t Know

Barack Obama is still a big drain on any possibility of any Democrat6 winning in Arkansas except where the population is majority-black. Even as his approval ratings go into the fifties, his approval is about 33% in Arkansas.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/tbp-hendrix-poll-trump-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-arkansas/

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.




44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-UNH: Clinton +7 overall, -2 in ME-02 on: June 25, 2016, 09:08:13 pm
I treat any binary poll with the leader with less than 40% a tie. Even if the poll is good in its methodology it is inconclusive. 
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Reuters- Clinton 13.3+ on: June 25, 2016, 03:05:26 pm
Take the electoral map of 2008 and figure that Hillary Clinton gets at most 1% more in states that Barack Obama won with 60% of the vote, 2% more in states that he won with 55% or more of the raw vote, and 3% in states that he won with 50% or more of the raw vote.  Where Obama won big (really, getting 55% or more of the raw vote is winning big) he won with margins characteristic of Reagan in 1984. There's just not much room for more growth in the Democratic vote in a state like Connecticut from 2008.

The 7.2% margin by which Barack Obama won in 2008 nationally is less than half of the margin (13.3%) shown in the Reuters poll.  In a strict binary split of the vote, that gives a national margin of 56.6 for Clinton and 43.4% for Donald Trump. That is NOT in the range of losses by Landon in 1936, Goldwater in 1964, or McGovern in 1972 -- or even Reagan in 1984.

There aren't many states in which Hillary Clinton can gain more than 7.6% of the vote over Obama in 2008 except under the sort of shift that happened between 1972 and 1976. Nixon won by huge margins in 1972  (Alabama about 48%, Arkansas 38%, Florida 43%, Georgia 50%, Kentucky 29%, Louisiana 37%, Missouri 24%, Mississippi 58%, North Carolina 40%, South Carolina 43%, Tennessee 38%, Texas 33%, West Virginia 27%)

Carter won every one of those states in 1976.

To say that George McGovern was a poor cultural fit for the Mountain and Deep South is like saying that the 2003 Detroit Kittens were a bad baseball team. Jimmy Carter was a good march for those states, at least in 1976, and he could not have won without them. Sure, a 13.3% lead by Hillary Clinton suggests that she could be wining states like North and South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, ans Kansas -- but those states do not have enough votes to explain why   
Hillar4y Clinton could be up 13.4% nationwide.
 
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Reuters- Clinton 13.3+ on: June 25, 2016, 12:29:54 pm
Consistent with some of the outlier polls involving states, especially Kansas and Utah. 
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PAC Backing Hillary Clinton to Run $10.5 Million in Ads in Pennsylvania on: June 25, 2016, 11:51:26 am
Next target: Senator Pat Toomey.

Pennsylvania usually closes strongly Democratic.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rumsfeld endorses TRUMP on: June 25, 2016, 09:21:41 am
One doddering, dodgy, old fool endorses another. Any surprise?
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump ran an openly racist campaign... on: June 25, 2016, 09:17:14 am
Covert racism may remain, but overt racism has become outmoded and disreputable. There's little to gain from it and much to lose.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Henry Paulson, "Bush 43" Treasury Secretary, endorses Hillary Clinton on: June 25, 2016, 09:10:46 am
Reuters:

Henry Paulson, a Republican who was U.S. Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial meltdown, on Friday called a Donald Trump presidency "unthinkable" and said he will vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton. Paulson joins a growing list of establishment Republicans who say they will not cast a ballot in the Nov. 8 election for Trump, the party's presumptive nominee and a political neophyte whose populist rhetoric runs counter to many long-held Republican principles.

"When it comes to the presidency, I will not vote for Donald Trump," Paulson, wrote in an opinion piece in the Washington Post. .... "I'll be voting for Hillary Clinton, with the hope that she can bring Americans together to do the things necessary to strengthen our economy, our environment and our place in the world," he said. Paulson accused Trump, who has touted his business acumen as a real estate developer during his campaign, of taking "imprudent risk" and then disavowing his debts when ventures fail.

He also took aim at Trump's opposition to trade agreements, which Paulson said have created U.S. jobs and fostered innovation and competitiveness.

"Simply put, a Trump presidency is unthinkable," Paulson said.

Paulson, who helped steer a $700 billion bailout of the financial system through Congress during the financial meltdown, said Trump is a "phony" who is unfit to be president. "I can't help but think what would have happened if a divisive character such as Trump were president during the 2008 financial crisis, at a time when leadership, compromise and careful analysis were critical," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-paulson-idUSKCN0ZB00R
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