Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2017, 06:14:15 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 604
26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the following states flip, and how? on: April 22, 2017, 08:36:06 pm
Isn't it simple? Donald Trump must be an effective President to win in 2020. Presidents at all effective get re-elected unless they stand on a tired agenda (the elder Bush).

Democrats will pay more attention to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, so even if little else changes, Democrats win on those three states.

Trump winning states that Clinton won suggest that he has been successful.... does anyone want to predict that? ... or that the election is rigged. His party is ruthless enough to do that.

Now how does America warm up to a Trump Presidency?
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Poll: Science & evidence-based research are correct we are harming Earth ? on: April 22, 2017, 07:59:46 pm
If we aren't hurting the Earth, then we are certainly hurting ourselves.

By attacking science we are denying ourselves some of the means of meeting problems that we already have and potentially denying ourselves the fruits of scientific inquiry.   
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Breaking: Rep. Chaffetz considers leaving Congress before the end of his term on: April 22, 2017, 12:12:01 am
I don't believe it's any sex-related scandal because Mormons don't have sex.

Anyway, some early speculation: I wouldn't expect a repeat of GA-6 or even KS-4 in the event that we have another special election this year.  Even if it's Utah, I don't expect Trump's unpopularity to trickle down there.  Republicans here are smart enough not to nominate a Trump loyalist, also.

They have a plenty of sex -- only it is between one man and one woman -- or one risks being excommunicated. 
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: David Brooks: Western civilization is collapsing on: April 22, 2017, 12:09:32 am
The contradictions within Western civilization force change, and tendencies of historical system give some of the contradictions either temporary or longer-lasting advantages.

(Effectively I fused Hegel and Darwin in that one sentence).

Western civilization is no more collapsing now than it was in the 1920s, when the trends were truly putrid. Is anyone ready to read some ponderous tomes on eugenics? Let alone take a dive into the cesspool that is Alfred Rosenberg's Myth of the 20th Century?   

Our modern world, which emerged from the late middle ages in the swaddling clothes of the Renaissance, has been working itself through its problems for about 600 years. We all recognize that we have too much to lose in any reversion to the barbarism of the middle ages. Our patterns of thought can change (try writing a novel without the influence of Freud -- possible until about 1900 but impossible now) -- but so can our institutions.

You can trust that if America goes bad enough, then there will be other countries to take or share our current role. But that, no matter how bad it is for Americans, will be another triumph of Western civilization.   
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN: Russia tried to use Trump advisers to infiltrate campaign on: April 21, 2017, 11:08:21 pm
Worse than Watergate.

With a change in ideology, this is analogous to what Stalin did to nominally-independent countries in central and Balkan Europe.  Stalin allowed the masquerade of democratic processes while local Commies following Stalin's instructions used salami tactics to undercut democracy until the democracy was a hollow shell. 
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Nightmare Scenario for Florida’s Coastal Homeowners on: April 21, 2017, 12:56:43 pm
Telling that their houses will go from supremely valuable to unmarketable will really scare people.
32  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: U.S. House banking chairman unveils Dodd-Frank replacement on: April 21, 2017, 03:08:50 am
1. TT is a prediction thief. Tongue
2. I doubt the Democrats will regain power until the fiscal + economic crisis occurs. I anticipate the Republicans having an edge until that situation occurs. That could be 2020, 2024, or at the extremes, 2028. Obama left us a fiery strong economy so this crisis will take a while to develop but given Obama didn't solve the underlying roots of the financial crisis this will be an issue that comes up again.
3. The 2008 crisis occurred before we got our foreshadowing Presidency. Obama was a sign of things to come but he was operating within a minority Democratic coalition.
4. Donald Trump and Mike Pence do not have the political coalition or capital to head off the crisis. In fact behavior like what Jeb Hensarling is doing will make the coming crisis worse. Obama tried to head off the crisis by instituting Dodd-Frank but by removing the protections the Republicans are creating the conditions.
5. The Republicans can slip portions of repeal etc into must pass bills and bills that have gone to Conference and need final approval. In fact this is most likely what they will do.


An economy can go very bad very fast. Think of what happened to Herbert Hoover. Maybe we would have had  more pervasive reforms had the economy melted down over three years  (autumn 1929-autumn 1932) than over a year and a half (autumn 2007-spring 2009).  But we are operating on an honor system instead of under bureaucratic red tape. Once the honor system becomes irrelevant, we are in for the bad behavior that precipitated panics as in 1929 and 2008.

I expect Republicans to push a 'profits-first' economy that will have wage cuts and union-destruction as a cure for any economic distress -- which will be like smoking to deliver some relief from the pain of lung cancer. 
33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Source: Trumpcare is back an worse then ever on: April 21, 2017, 03:00:56 am
We might even see "medical cost" refugees leaving America.
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sessions comment about 'an island in the Pacific' is dog-whistle bigotry ? on: April 21, 2017, 02:58:20 am
"They were a minority type thing and it wasn’t glamorous, so she came home."  -Sarah Palin's father talking about her in Hawaii.

An aside -- with her slangy speech, Sarah Palin had a difficult time relating to people whose first language is not English. I have found that when talking to people who are not native speakers of English it is wise to cleave strictly to the formal register in which English is taught to learners of English as a  second language. This is irrespective of how close the first language is to English in its grammar (it applies alike for French as for Chinese) or the level of proficiency of English of the non-native speaker. 
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 21, 2017, 02:50:22 am
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

Barack Obama got overwhelming percentages of the Jewish, Latino, and Asian votes. He is neither Jewish, Latino, nor Asian. In fact he won unambiguous majorities in the 2008 and 2012 elections. It is safe to say that millions of people voted for him for reasons other than his ethnicity.

Donald Trump is a thoroughly-awful person. The crotch-grabbing is enough of a reason for me to reject him for President. But go ahead and have an emotional stake in him. Many people have questionable heroes like tyrants, mobsters, swindlers, and terrorists.

If you are a conservative you have plenty of alternatives to Donald Trump as a hero. It troubles me that he mentioned tyrants as people that he admired. He could have offered Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Reagan.   

Quote
When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

A 'victory tour' -- he could have been consulting experts on how to staff the White House, how to deal with Congress, etc. ...
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 20, 2017, 09:55:55 pm
At a 6% advantage, Democrats win back the House only if they can win back districts that swung heavily against them in states like Arkansas and Georgia that used to lean Democratic, generally where gerrymandering is irrelevant. 
37  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: U.S. House banking chairman unveils Dodd-Frank replacement on: April 20, 2017, 09:53:42 pm
The people who caused the last financial crisis got off scot-free so why would they ever fear causing another one?

If they were responsible for yet another financial crisis and got away scot free then a country with 300 million guns and over 300 million people aren't gonna be too forgiving.

Maybe they think that they could get away from the putrid mess that they left behind and live well on the loot that they transmit to places in which they will be able to live well.  Dirty money, as from embezzlement and drug dealing, is gone in most places once it is tracked down.

These fellows are lucky that they faced a comparatively-conservative Barack Obama as President, someone more intent on getting the economy humming along again than on personal retribution.  
38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Source: Trumpcare is back an worse then ever on: April 20, 2017, 12:19:14 pm
This is a pro-death Administration. 
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Source: Trumpcare is back an worse then ever on: April 20, 2017, 11:02:38 am
Lose: verb to cease possession (which can be of a quality as of an object) or misplace, or to be defeated in a game. Simple past and past participle lost. Present participle (which can be an adjective) losing. Derivative noun: loss.

Examples: Shares of Enron common stock have lost all value as its executives lost all credibility.
I lost the car keys, only to find them in the sofa.  


Loose ; usually an adjective -- not rigidly connected. Opposite of "tight". Also contrary to normal expectations

Examples: Loose clothing better insulates one than does tight clothing.
Loose women may be fun, but they are troublesome.  
Loose lips sink ships.
The fool opened the barn door and set the horses loose.

It can be a verb, really meaning"set loose"

"He shall loose the fateful lightning of His terrible, swift Sword!" (Battle Hymn of the Republic)

Loser: someone who loses. The Chicago Cubs long had a reputation of "lovable losers".
Don't be a loser: stay in school, and don't use drugs.
Gambling casinos are rich because of the losers that they entice to feed slot machines.

 
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Companies That Made Big Donations To Trump Inauguration Benefit From Presidency on: April 20, 2017, 10:01:29 am
Corporations are people.

People own shares in corporations. People work for corporations.

If I own a house and live in it, then is my house a person?

If I work on a ship that someone else owns, then is the ship a person?

'Corporations as people' is simply a legal fiction that allows corporations to have rights of free expression, protection from seizure of assets, and protection from legislative or administrative extinction at the behest of a political leader or legislature. They have many of the same responsibilities as persons, so they can be sued and fined. They can go bankrupt and have their assets liquidated to settle with creditors. They obviously cannot be imprisoned (directors might be), let alone executed not an American example, but directors of a firm that supplied Zyklon-B for gas chambers in Nazi murder camps were hanged for crimes cone in the name of their company). 

Ultimately somebody is responsible for crimes committed in the name of a corporation, which explains why some executives of Enrob went to prison.
41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Companies That Made Big Donations To Trump Inauguration Benefit From Presidency on: April 20, 2017, 09:24:03 am
The definitive pay-to-pay Presidency.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 19, 2017, 05:46:15 pm
Quote
He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Wrestlemania? Not impressed, as I would never watch the show. I'll take happy obscurity over dubious fame any day. Money beyond belief? A true test of character is that one does not need a huge amount of money for validation of the Self. Second wife, and he has paid for some abortions. Again, if one is ditching spouses when they no longer look like centerfolds, one has a problem of loyalty. Lots of people in all classes have wonderful grandchildren. A mansion? not needing one is more evidence of being down-to-earth. Casinos? You know those -- places in which to fleece suckers. That's not my taste. A private jet? A reasonable investment if one is rich and has practical uses for one, like examining one's oil or ranching interests.

If by some chance I had become President, I would have done so as a conventional politician -- city councilman to Mayor to Congressional Representative to Senator in the meantime. Maybe through the lower house of the State legislature to the Upper House through Governor. I am a poor speaker mostly because I have a slow cadence and a pitch in the baritone range that easily gets drowned out.  That also precludes Asperger's, which has me.
43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 19, 2017, 04:02:39 pm
Mitt Romney would be a huge improvement over Donald Trump. Americans should have heeded his advice about Donald Trump a year ago.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 19, 2017, 03:38:50 pm
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

There are far better white males in which to have an 'emotional investment' than Donald Trump. I prefer political leaders who act 60 (like Barack Obama) to those who act 20 (like Trump).    
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 19, 2017, 03:32:00 pm
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

I would be quieter as a businessman, I would have much different taste in furnishings, I would be better read, and I would be a very different President.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 19, 2017, 03:05:33 pm
Texas:

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source

(Texas Lyceum)

Note also that Ted Cruz could be having trouble with his Senate seat. There hasn't been a Democratic Senator from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen's fill-in was defeated in the next election.


Maybe Texas is approaching the national average... it's hard to tell because Texas is a tough state to poll. If President Trump is having trouble in Texas, then he is having trouble in almost all regions of America. I don't fully trust any poll of Texas because the state has too many regional divides for reliable polling, and nobody really understands the state.

If Donald Trump should lose this state in 2020, then he is losing 'bigly', as the state is the difference between about 400 and 440 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President.   


Favorability:



*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states.


Approval:




Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  


47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: George H.W Bush back in the hospital on: April 19, 2017, 07:38:58 am
I think this may be his final year of life.  No one at that age truly recovers from pneumonia -once it's in you, it stays there until it ultimately kills you, months after you initially contract it. Although that is probably just a symptom of what's truly killing him, whatever it may be.  In my father's case, it was MDS and leukemia.  They are not unlike HIV-AIDS in the sense that they weaken your immune system to the point that a simple cold can turn into a potentially lethal pneumonia. 

Pneumonia is a collection of infectious diseases that one wards off so long as one is reasonably healthy. Infectious diseases are everywhere, and if one bacillus doesn't finish a weakened person, then something else will.  Pneumonia is the Angel of Death for many cancer patients, people with prion diseases, or people with organ failure.  It is usually easy to treat, but once the kidneys failure, the antibiotics themselves are too difficult for the body to  handle.

Here's wishing the best to the best Republican President in a long time.
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republicans Only: Will Shifting Demographics ACTUALLY Make One Party Dem Rule? on: April 19, 2017, 01:05:41 am
Eight years ago many were talking about the demise of the Republican party as a viable institution. Today the Republican Party has crushing power. At the start of the Trump Administration I expected the GOP to use its power to dismantle any public institutions contrary to its interests, especially with the most reactionary President in American history -- who governs much like a dictator.   

Ask how things are in January 2019.

Demographics are a trend, and not destiny. it is clear that under-educated whites do not share a culture with under-educated people of any other ethnic group.  Republicans have been making appeals to anti-intellectualism that excite poor white people but offend middle-class minorities who are well educated as a rule. 
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Florida State Sen. calls collegues "asshole", "bitch", and "n**gers" on: April 19, 2017, 12:22:16 am
It's disgraceful, but it is not impeachable. He will be defeated in the next election should he choose to run for re-election.

If I am with the Republican Party of Florida I am urging him to resign and give someone a chance to  to establish a record as a legislator and have a chance of being elected. Appointed pols may have  poor win-loss records in election bids, but those elected officials with a disgrace have even worse win-loss records.     
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Leader of ‘Cal-Exit’ Drops Bid for California to Secede, Instead Moves to Russia on: April 19, 2017, 12:19:00 am
I'd be suspicious of any Alaska independence movement.
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 604


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines