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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: April 21, 2014, 11:42:25 am
Just picked the most reliable of the four firms to update my own state. Suffolk is slightly less reliable than Rasmussen, WMUR/UNH is too prone to swings, and ARG is, well... ARG. 48/52 approval.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)





That treatment of New Hampshire is valuable. Junk polls should be rejected -- and not averaged. Polls that nobody has ever heard of? Maybe another poll corroborates it. If it seems OK, it is OK. Every pollster starts out new.

Good work on the Winthrop poll. (thanks - did a little cleanup because I realized I used the wrong intensity - TF)
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: why is being a northeast liberal governor considered a bad thing... on: April 21, 2014, 11:35:09 am
On the other side -- a Southern, right-wing governor would be clobbered outside the South getting stuck with some states that never, never, never vote for a Democratic nominee for President. Northerners can vote for a Southern moderate like Clinton or Gore.

Dubya concealed his right-wing tendencies well and played up some ties to New England.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Hillary Clinton win Indiana's 11 electoral votes? on: April 21, 2014, 11:32:00 am
NC, AZ, MO fall first. It's unlikely that she will, but if the GOP nominates Cruz...

Cruz is loved amongst GOP folks in Indiana.

So was Richard Mourdock.

Right. Dick Lugar typically won by landslides by picking off huge numbers of Democratic votes.  Mourdock lost those votes -- and a bunch of Independent and even a few Republican votes.

Never, never, never trivialize rape.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary Clinton Is Too Old on: April 21, 2014, 11:29:27 am
Someone I know from Washington said that an open secret is how poorly Hillary Clinton has aged over the last few years, in terms of reaction time and energy. She responded very quickly and appropriately to the shoe-throwing incident, so the open secret might just be wishful thinking among DC Republicans. Presumably none of us knows whether or not she'll be up to the challenge, and that's something that would be more obvious over the next year as the primary kicks off.

But, when would Democrats be worried? What would indicate that her time as an ideal candidate for the toughest job in the world has passed?

Yes, Hillary Clinton will be younger than Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole and John McCain when they were presidential candidates. But different people are affected in different ways. It's possible that Joe Biden will be sharper and more energetic, despite being five years older.

I'm not saying that she's too old to be a good nominee/ President. But at what point would it be a problem?

Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie look as if their tickers are ticking time bombs.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Hillary Clinton win Indiana's 11 electoral votes? on: April 20, 2014, 05:08:49 pm
Democrats have won Indiana for the President in four elections of the last century -- 1932 (abject failure of the preceding Administration), 1936 (the 48-state win of FDR), 1964 (LBJ winning everything outside the South except for the home state of Barry Goldwater), and 2008 (much like 1932). It was surprisingly close in 1948 -- probably because Truman's whistlestop campaign tour went through Indiana, and Dewey was a thoroughly-awful campaigner.

A Democrat can lose Indiana by about 11% and still win; Indiana is that R. . But not by much more. Gore lost Indiana by about 15%... a swing of 4% of the vote in Indiana would likely show up in a 4% swing in the vote in Ohio, which would have put Gore over. (Gore would have probably won New Hampshire and Missouri as well, and nobody would have been questioning any ballots in Florida).

Kerry lost Indiana by 20% and about 7% nationwide. Indiana was about 13% more Republican in 2004 than the US as a whole  that year. Give Kerry so much as a 3% shift in the vote nationwide -- and he wins 37 more electoral votes (NM, IA, OH, and NV) and wins by about as much a margin in the Electoral College as he lost in reality.

Indiana does swing, but rarely enough to go D.  Bill Clinton lost the state by 6% in 1992 and 1996, but he also won every state bordering Indiana -- twice.   

Uhm. Kerry lost by about 2.5%, not 7%...

You are right.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Hillary Clinton win Indiana's 11 electoral votes? on: April 19, 2014, 08:55:51 pm
Democrats have won Indiana for the President in four elections of the last century -- 1932 (abject failure of the preceding Administration), 1936 (the 48-state win of FDR), 1964 (LBJ winning everything outside the South except for the home state of Barry Goldwater), and 2008 (much like 1932). It was surprisingly close in 1948 -- probably because Truman's whistlestop campaign tour went through Indiana, and Dewey was a thoroughly-awful campaigner.

A Democrat can lose Indiana by about 11% and still win; Indiana is that R. . But not by much more. Gore lost Indiana by about 15%... a swing of 4% of the vote in Indiana would likely show up in a 4% swing in the vote in Ohio, which would have put Gore over. (Gore would have probably won New Hampshire and Missouri as well, and nobody would have been questioning any ballots in Florida).

Kerry lost Indiana by 20% and about 7% nationwide. Indiana was about 13% more Republican in 2004 than the US as a whole  that year. Give Kerry so much as a 3% shift in the vote nationwide -- and he wins 37 more electoral votes (NM, IA, OH, and NV) and wins by about as much a margin in the Electoral College as he lost in reality.

Indiana does swing, but rarely enough to go D.  Bill Clinton lost the state by 6% in 1992 and 1996, but he also won every state bordering Indiana -- twice.   
32  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Fundamentalist Belief Inventory Quiz on: April 19, 2014, 06:34:24 pm
4. There's something out there, but the Bible doesn't offer it.
33  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical for anti-death penalty advocates on: April 19, 2014, 06:26:58 pm
For good reason the well-organized judiciary has no use for the brutal lynch mob that offers no rationality, no defense of the accused, and no appeal. Court findings are subject to revision in the event of an error. Lynch mobs offer no chance for rectification after the fact.
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: More than 100 hate-crime murders linked to single website, report finds on: April 19, 2014, 11:57:25 am
Stormfront is like Facebook for Nazis. This is hardly a surprise.

The SPLC breaks obvious news and takes credit for it once again!

One can't now be a Nazi or Klansman without having scorpions in one's soul.

35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX-PPP: Hillary trails R's, Christie does worst on: April 19, 2014, 12:58:57 am
Without the advantage of Favorite-Son status, the Republican needs an advantage beyond 10% in Texas to win the state.  Barring a complete collapse of the GOP nominee, Texas sill not be in play in 2016.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker not having a college degree is going to crush him in crucial swing areas on: April 19, 2014, 12:54:40 am
It hurts him only if he tries to play up resentments toward educated people.

37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-Marketing Resources Group: Clinton 44% Christie 38% on: April 18, 2014, 09:22:51 am
There are so many crappy Michigan-only pollsters. Trust PPP, Quinnipiac, or maybe even Rasmussen. 
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: April 18, 2014, 09:19:13 am
The Washington Free Beacon is a very right-wing journal.  So beware.

Here is an interesting piece of polling. I had a desire to see how Scott Walker, Governor of neighboring Wisconsin (a state demographically similar to Iowa) would do in Iowa:

45.9% HILLARY CLINTON
40.4% SCOTT WALKER

He'd have his work cut out. As shown in 2000, a Republican nominee can win without Iowa,  but the state is close enough to the national average that Iowa has to be within the margin of error.

PPP will probably ask how Hillary Clinton does against Walker in Wisconsin.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: April 18, 2014, 12:07:13 am
There just aren't that many arguable swing states not now polled.

I would guess that having been Governor of Arkansas matter far more than does having been First Lady of the State, so I would guess that Mike Huckabee would win the state.  I see no cause to believe that Paul Ryan will run for President in 2016; he seems more interested in gaining power within the House of Representatives. So Colorado goes to Clinton.

Using green for unpolled states almost certain to go R and using orange for unpolled states almost certain to go D, and I get (pastel green and orange)



I have no idea on either Indiana or Missouri, and NE-02 would be in doubt.

It looks like a replay of 2008 except with Indiana and Missouri undecided.

 
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The KC shooter has a website, was a NC gubernatorial candidate in 1984 on: April 17, 2014, 05:01:05 pm
Good call on the edit, Ernest.  We don't want the jailed mass murderer to call Dave on copyright infringement.
Copyright is copyright.  Tho to be fair, I wasn't the one to report it.  Still, copyright shouldn't be reserved for the rich, or the powerful, or the sane.

How would this not easily fall under Fair Use? This was a political candidate for statewide office who wrote a manifesto intended for wide, free non-commercial distribution. Reproducing his text does not cause any damages or financial loss to him.

Wouldn't you assume that his intent here is to maximize the distribution of the ideas he presented, and that he would want this information widely disseminated? Does it make any logical sense that anyone would, never mind could, sue over this?

The Unabom Manifesto is in the public domain. The writer wants it that way.

There's no commercial value in what this nut wrote, including his Holocaust denial. After all, no member of the Jewish cabal that dominates publishing (sarcasm intended) would ever buy and publish this bilge except as an example of what is wrong with antisemitism. The Jewish bankers* who dominate the economy would never let the money change hands.

He is in no position to gain from it. Maybe his site could be sold, but that has nothing to do with copyright laws.

I would save it as an illustration of the crankiness of antisemitism. If one wants to know who hates the Jews and why... here it is. Never mind that the vast majority of Jews are honorable, upstanding people and that Judaism is one of the most benign religions in the modern world.


*Jews are scarce in the banking industry, and the few Jewish banks that there are cater to Jewish customers.  The canard of Jewish control of banking is a great myth.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Huckabee's ceiling against Clinton in the Electoral College? on: April 17, 2014, 12:38:41 pm
Next This week, PPP shows its results from Texas. Being from Arkansas gives one no great advantage in Texas; Bill Clinton lost the state twice.

Even with a 56-44 split of the popular vote (which is roughly the average of the two Eisenhower wins), Hillary Clinton will not win Texas. Huckabee basically gets most of the states that ever went for Stevenson, Texas, and States that never- never - never vote for a Democratic nominee. In the interest of symmetry, I show an Eisenhower-style win for Hillary Clinton:




 
Quote
Huckabee is close to his ceiling. He gets most of his current exposure on Faux News Channel, which means he gets heavy attention from people on the Right but little from the rest of America. His floor in the popular vote is about 45%, which puts Texas in play for Hillary Clinton.
still does not yet deliver Texas to Hillary Clinton. Huckabee is an excellent cultural fit for the Deep and Mountain South -- and Texas.

The map would be different for Christie.  Georgia and Missouri now look fairly similar in their politics; Arizona will increasingly look more like Colorado than like Texas in politics. Huckabee is a poor-enough match for Ohio that he would put Indiana in play, especially if the Senate seat involves a hot race.


141 Huckabee (R)
397 Clinton (D)


42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Huckabee's ceiling against Clinton in the Electoral College? on: April 17, 2014, 12:22:49 pm
America is VERY hostile to the south at this point in history, so I highly doubt Huckabee gets above 202 EV. Remember, it is very rare in American politics for a candidate to do well in both the south and the important rust belt.

America is hostile as a whole to Southern reactionaries as national candidates. Yankees can vote for Southern moderates -- like Bill Clinton and Al Gore. Jimmy Carter won Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. What they won't go for is someone who exudes the values of the Southern Right.

Does anyone doubt that Yankees would vote for a moderate Southerner? If they can vote for Barack Obama they can vote for some black liberal Governor of Alabama, Louisiana, or Mississippi who has solved many of the problems. But such implies a revival of the New South in which reform trumps race.

It's telling that the only Republican nominee for President to have won Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island together was Dwight Eisenhower -- after Adlai Stevenson found most of his support among Southern agrarians. Ike did badly in the South.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: April 17, 2014, 11:54:42 am
PPP, Texas:

Paul- 50%
Clinton- 40%

Huckabee- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Bush- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Cruz- 50%
Clinton- 43%

Perry- 49%
Clinton- 44%

Christie- 44%
Clinton- 42%

Hillary would bring Texas closer than any Democrat in the 21st century. Safe R.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/ted-cruz-most-popular-in-texas.html

PPP will have polls for Wisconsin next week. It might show how well two potential favorite sons would do.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News nat.: Clinton leads Christie 50-42%, leads Bush & Paul 51-42% on: April 16, 2014, 09:35:42 pm
FoX News polls are objective. Say what you want to about the content of the news, the polls get it right.
45  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you believe in ancient aliens? on: April 16, 2014, 06:07:40 pm
NO!

The ancient Egyptians did some very good architecture based upon sophisticated geometry. They may have lost some of the knowledge after they no longer needed it.

The only 'ancient aliens' that I can imagine are Phoenicians reaching parts of the New World.   
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which is the most accurate theory of American politics? on: April 16, 2014, 03:54:04 pm
2 going to 4.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Mitchell Research: Snyder leads by 12 on: April 16, 2014, 03:50:47 pm
Apparently this poll had a bunch of push questions that Mitchell left off the PDF.

Push questions... push poll... worthless.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker up by 15 in Wisconsin on: April 15, 2014, 09:01:24 pm
He quickly becomes the hero of every right-wing economic interest -- the anti-worker, privatization, anti-education, and anti-environment causes. He probably begins deferring to the other parts of the Right -- if he isn't there yet -- on foreign policy, firearms, law enforcement, and sex.

He could be the monster of every liberal nightmare in the US. That is what the Right wants.   
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Mitchell Research: Snyder leads by 12 on: April 15, 2014, 08:11:19 pm
For those who never saw it -- at the least the woman is attractive. So is the scenery.

But I caught that she was not from China. Her alleged broken English was about as fake as it could be. Neophyte Chinese learners of English typically get English consonant clusters badly because those do not exist in Chinese. She got them as if she were a native speaker of English, which she probably is... It's about as if some German presents himself as an American by using broken German but uses a rapid cadence of speech characteristic of Germans but not of native speakers of English. 

She was also very sophisticated about American right-wing politics, which is itself spurious for someone from China.

Someone discussing the video exposed that she had a hairdo typical more of someone from Vietnam than from China... not that I would know.   

The real joke was that she was bragging about her country getting rich -- but she is in a rice paddy. The great wealth in China is not being created in rice paddies.  If I had created the ad I would have shown Shanghai or Hong Kong and not some rice paddy. 

It turns out that she was from California, and the Chinese landscape was almost certainly dubbed in.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Authorities say hate motivated Kansas shooting on: April 15, 2014, 07:57:05 pm
Attacks on people for real or imagined race, ethnicity, religion, or sexual orientation tear at the very fabric of a civil society.
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