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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: October 16, 2014, 07:12:06 pm
What is the cause for the extremely-long delay with Michigan? The Supreme Court has quickly dispensed with appeals that are nothing but delaying tactics with a weak case, as with Indiana and Wisconsin.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Obama on: October 16, 2014, 03:20:01 pm
Not even trolling: considering the historical precedents of Wilson, FDR, Truman, JFK and LBJ, when did everyone decide being a hawk/interventionist became an inherently "conservative" thing?  It had to be post-Iraq war, which is really lazy.

Neither Lincoln, Wilson, nor FDR wanted war, but got it anyway, and handled it as ferociously as necessary. The current President is on the brink.

There is no ideological defense of genocide for either a conservative or a liberal.

Paradoxically it may be the politicians who least relish war who handle it best.
28  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Lockheed says it's close to nuclear fusion on: October 16, 2014, 10:51:42 am
Well, fusion is far far more economically viable than fission.

fusion releases more energy per gram than fission, like ten times as much

also, there are no radioactive by-products with fusion

Wrong -- high-intensity, ionizing energy that must be muted into more controllable heat. The mathematics just do not work for cold fusion.
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 16, 2014, 09:35:24 am
Middle-class Jews, Muslims, blacks, Hispanics, Asian-American, and homosexuals act as if they distrust the Republican Party -- but middle- class white, straight Christians do trust the Republican Party.

It may be that the speculative boom in real estate in the last decade (the "Opportunity Society" of George W. Bush) fleeced Hispanics and then hurt them worst when it imploded. Mexican-Americans buy into single-family housing at lower levels of income than any other ethnic group, and they got burned. They probably fault Republicans where such happened, especially in California and Nevada. Not in Texas, though, even if the Hispanics there are heavily Mexican-American -- Texas has tougher lending laws as the result of the boom and bust of the 1980s.
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: October 16, 2014, 09:26:08 am
Please update map to include Alaska.

With pleasure. There seems to have been no appeal from state officials so far as is usually the case when there is a desire and will of State officials to do so. There would be some appeal by now.

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 15 October 2014:



White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 9 October 2014:







Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11

ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4

MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9



31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Hillary curb stomps her opponents by double digits on: October 16, 2014, 12:00:15 am
Unless we have a near-flip between the Democratic and Republican Parties since the 1950's (I have made suggestions that President Obama has started picking off some of the demographics of Eisenhower voters of the 1950s) and Hillary Clinton holds onto those, Hillary Clinton is not going to win anything like 55% of the Presidential vote in Florida. Has the "Rational Right" started to drift Democratic without going to the political Left?

A few pointers:

1. Air strikes will at most weaken ISIS. The Air Force does not take territory or prisoners.

2. The economy can melt down. We have had a recovery that may begin to unravel at any time.

3. The Republicans have deep pockets for political campaigns.

4. The Republicans know how to exploit fear even if they are culpable of creating the fearsome situation. "Peonage or death!" is as vile an offer as "Your money or your life!"  -- but it has proved effective at times.

32  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which states qualify as culturally Southern? on: October 15, 2014, 12:21:18 pm
Orlando is a Southern city like Charlotte or Atlanta.  More liberal maybe, but you're still in the South.

Nothing about the Miami area is Southern.

Like El Paso, Laredo, and the lower Rio Grande Valley, Miami is culturally Latin-American.
33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 15, 2014, 08:19:36 am
The thriving progressive urban metropolises of San Jose, Los Angeles, San Diego and Denver. The progressive cosmopolitan powerhouses in Chicago, New Orleans, New York and Philadelphia.

Whether the white elite live in McMansions in far-lung suburbs or in expensive condominiums in the inner-city, they are dependent on the labor of Latino, Asian or Caribbean immigrants and would have no cultural materials without the tremendous influence of African-Americans on the heart and soul of America. Blacks, Latinos and Asians almost uniformly vote for Democrats because they see the injustice of a system that is dependent on them but uses and abuses them in every aspect of life. Their voting patterns are not an indication of anti-white racism but rather an indication that people of color wish to eradicate racism.

No, that's what silly white people tell themselves. Russel Simmons explained it once upon a time, when he was talking about the difference in rebel subcultures within white and minority demographics. He said white people fight to get out, and minorities fight to get in.

No. The minorities who want to get into the upper echelons of our society must contort themselves to show that their ethnicity is nothing more than an eccentric quirk, and generally try to show themselves as 'whiter than thou'. Those who fail at that and succeed at something else don't pretend to be anything other than what they are. The latter is far easier. It is safe to assume that the non-white parts of the middle class are in no way rebels. Maybe figures of entertainment and sports can get away with some rebellion, but they are rarely middle-class.

I see no reason to believe that black or Hispanic, let alone Asian, members of the American middle class are 'alienated' with middle-class life any more than are white members of the middle-class. They are liberals to the extent that they distrust right-wing extremists who would gut the public sector that gave them formal education or in many cases, a middle-class job. The black and Hispanic middle class are more likely than white counterparts to have a government job. Even if one is black or Hispanic and has a private-sector business or professional practice, one's clients are more likely to rely upon some form of government assistance -- food stamps or Medicaid.   

Quote
Capitalist conservative WASPs are viewed as the cultural hegemons. Liberals are fighting to get out from under (what they believe to be) oppressive economic policy and extraneous social decorum. Minorities, on the other hand, are not fighting to have a different flavor of middle-class or upper-middle class existence. According to Simmons, they are fighting to get a piece of the existing, established American Dream. Why do you think "spread the wealth around" was so intoxicating, and Obamacare was so lukewarm?

The capitalist elite seeks economic, and not cultural, hegemony. So long as it gets complete control of the economy it does not care how debased American culture gets. It is willing to align itself with Christian fundamentalists to push pseudoscience and a world-rejecting view of the universe upon gullible people because it knows that it will be exempt from personal consequences.  It wants cheap, expendable labor that it can get productivity from with threats. If it can't reimpose slavery, then it can make debt bondage in all but name as the norm for people outside the elite. It would push workers into an arrangement analogous to the relationship between landowners and sharecroppers in the old South -- the employer offers sustenance on credit which must be met at the terms of the employer at some 'settlement' at the end of a term. Someone not working adequately at the terms of his employer can be punished by law. Of course such requires that the helpless wretch have no political power -- no vote.

That is a relevant model for America because it has existed in the past. Just look at all the credit-based rip-offs in America. All that is lacking is the disenfranchisement of those who have no property and a a police that harshly enforces the terms of peonage contracts.   

Quote
Liberals and minorities have virtually nothing in common beyond mutual distrust of conservative WASPs. Democrats are aware of the situation, and they never let a good race crisis go to waste.

What have Movement Conservatives done to merit trust by anyone other than themselves? They stand for the most rapacious, unprincipled plutocrats in America. They have succeeded in creating 'wedge' issues and promoting a political divide between poor whites and poor blacks, and offering 'pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die-to-those-who-comply' as a reward for miserable and miserable lives today. What they have yet to succeed at is ensuring that life will be so precarious and miserable that all that anyone not in the economic elite can look forward to is a contingent promise of 'pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die-to-those-who-comply'.

They would rather offer booze, prostitution, and pornography than social justice. The economic elite is utterly amoral.

34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 15, 2014, 07:11:07 am
I do not see Obama being known as a great president. He has not got Americas involved in nearly enough wars. The wars he did get America involved in (such as Libya) were short, professionally handled and not nearly enough quirky anecdotes were created. Also, no historian will look kindly on a president who actually thinks the U.S. military is not the answer to every foreign policy question. No, Obama will rank the middle of the pack and chill out with Gerald Ford and Chester Arthur. That should be a good conversation, though.

(Typos corrected -- please heed Spell Check!)

He will not be compared to Washington, Lincoln, and FDR, all of whom took a severely-divided country at extreme risk to domestic peace and fully resolved the situation.  I give him much credit for the end of the economic meltdown that threatened to be as severe as that of 1929-1933



(The graph is not mine, and I use it solely for illustration. Conclusions that I draw are mine).

In the wake of the financial collapse that resulted from gross mismanagement of the American economy, President Obama was unable to support any speculative boom that would create a veneer of prosperity over economic destruction as Dubya did. He did what FDR did -- he backed the banks -- but at an earlier stage in the meltdown. Because there is no Louisiana Purchase available on the cheap (Vladimir Putin is not going to sell us Siberia) he isn't Jefferson. His window of opportunity for major reforms of the American economic order, shut tightly in January 2011. But he did get major reforms in that window of opportunity.

Barack Obama rescued Corporate America. Unfortunately for his political power he also rescued the ability of Corporate America to buy every right-wing pol that it could.

Chester Arthur? A non-entity. Ford? Not prepared for an effective campaign for a nationwide election. Barack Obama got elected as resolutely as he was elected in 2008 because people who typically voted Republican for most Senate and House offices despaired of the prospect of a 1929-1933 meltdown of the American economy. He lost those people as he solved their despair, and he still got re-elected in 2012.

He wanted to become as great as Lincoln or FDR, and he has become more the new Woodrow Wilson, if without the bigotry.  



35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Shut down the EPA? on: October 15, 2014, 06:36:38 am
The debate about the EPA is not about EP, but about the nature of the agency.

Why should the EPA be an independent agency, largely beyond Congressional review? People need more clandestine government activity in their lives?

Because quick-buck damage, especially toxic dumping,  to the environment is typically clandestine. The EPA has legal consequences for such behavior. Do irreparable damage and go to prison.
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: October 15, 2014, 06:31:25 am
Rasmussen has glorious news out today, as Obama for the first time in months comes out even-headed With a 49-49 approval. Smiley

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

But the Democrats running for the Senate and House cannot well exploit this fact. The Congressional ballot is dead even, which at best ensures practically ensures no change in the House 

Even if I am excessively partisan to make an objective statement, the President needs some genuine support on foreign policy -- support not tied to a willingness to concede  on all else to Senate and House Republicans to be able to execute an effective foreign policy.

In view of the behavior of Congressional and Senate Republicans, I have no cause to believe that the Republicans will not make a military victory over ISIS contingent upon accepting the transformation of America into a pure plutocracy. Yes, we have a war on our hands, with an enemy that America must defeat.

Barack Obama is not Dubya. He is cautious; he is meticulously honest. He may not relish war, but neither did Lincoln, Wilson, nor FDR. Lincoln, Wilson, and FDR won the wars that they did not want.   


 
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 14, 2014, 03:27:29 pm
Its telling that the Hillary vs. Best Republican map is roughly equivalent to Obama's 2012 win.  Not only that, but there is no 'best' Republican who does this well in every state.  All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses and fall short of this ideal scenario.

There just isn't much wiggle room for any Republican. I find it hard to believe that Hillary could do better than any Democratic nominee in Florida since FDR in 1944, and I can't imagine it as anything other than a swing state in 2016. 
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 14, 2014, 03:20:20 pm

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

As if Maryland (which has not voted for a Republican nominee for President since the 1950s aside from two 49-state blowouts) offers any mystery on how it will go in 2016... It has been polled on the 2016 election for the first time.  

Idaho apparently will vote for any Republican who does not pose the overt danger of provoking thermonuclear war, although that was very close in 1964.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  60
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  


39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 14, 2014, 03:11:49 pm

Gravis, Maryland
Hillary...
Vs Paul Ryan: 51-36 (D +15%)
Vs Rand Paul: 51-34 (D +17%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 52-35 (D +17%)

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-maryland-polling

No surprise there!

New Mexico, also from Gravis:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-mexico-polling/


Match ups:

Hillary vs Rand Paul: 49-36 (D +13%)
Hillary vs Jeb Bush: 50-36 (D +14%)

Kentucky, Gravis (with only one relevant matchup)
 http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/october-kentucky-polling-of-likely-voters/

It features only two 2016 match-ups:

Rand Paul vs Hillary Clinton: 48-45 (R +3%)
Rand Paul vs Elizabeth Warren: 49-36 (R +13%)

Idaho, PPP:

Vs Chris Christie: 33-44 (R +11%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 34-50 (R +16%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 33-50 (R +17%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 34-52 (R +18%)
Vs Rand Paul: 33-52 (R +19%)

More here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/idaho-governors-race-close-but-otter-has-room-to-grow.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 13, 2014, 10:22:18 pm
Kansas, PPP. All against Hillary Clinton.

Vs Ted Cruz: 41-44 (R +3%)
Vs Chris Christie: 38-42 (R +4%)
Vs Rand Paul: 40-45 (R +5%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 41-47 (R +6%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 37-48 (R +11%)

 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/key-races-tighten-in-kansas.html#more

For a state that Republican nominees usually win by 60-40 margins, this is weak.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Hillary curb stomps her opponents by double digits on: October 13, 2014, 02:51:42 pm
Just like that FL-26 poll that's tough to fully trust, this one is the same. I think Hillary wins FL but a 20 plus point win is not happening.

The ceiling for a Democratic nominee for President is likely 54-56% now. The only analogue that I can see to that is one of the Eisenhower elections of the 1950s. I figure that if that happens, many Republicans will be looking for a hockey or basketball game -- or possibly an old movie.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Hillary curb stomps her opponents by double digits on: October 13, 2014, 02:47:44 pm
This suggests that Hillary Clinton would win Florida with the largest percentage that any Democratic nominee has gotten there since FDR won the state with 70% of the vote in 1944.

In case you were wondering, what about 1964?  LBJ won it  51.15% to 48.85%, which was his second-weakest win in a 44-state blowout.  
  
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 13, 2014, 10:21:15 am
Florida. University poll.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/hillary-clinton-continues-to-maintain-lead-in-2016-field/

Clinton 49
Christie 34

Clinton 53
Bush 33

Clinton 53
Rubio 30

Clinton 54
Paul 30

Clinton 54
Cruz 27

....This suggests the strongest electoral performance by any Democratic nominee in Florida since the 1940s.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 13, 2014, 10:14:10 am


Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Georgia is potential big trouble for the GOP in 2016, and although it is in the same category it looks far worse for Republicans as a whole. Connecticut now has polls for more than one choice, and what I suspect to be so there looks realized.   

Add the latest Iowa poll.
  



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  60
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  


45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: October 13, 2014, 10:07:20 am
Iowa, Des Moines Register/Selzer

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-10-11/bloombergdes-moines-register-iowa-poll-republicans-within-striking-distance-of-hillary-clinton

(against) Ryan 44/43, Paul 44/41, Jeb 46/39, Rubio 46/37, Christie 46/38, Cruz 45/35.

Huckabee not mentioned.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: October 13, 2014, 09:10:46 am
Quote
(Reuters) - In a dramatic shift in tone, a Vatican document said on Monday that homosexuals had "gifts and qualities to offer" and asked if Catholicism could accept gays and recognize positive aspects of same-sex couples.

The document, prepared after a week of discussions at an assembly of 200 bishops on the family, said the Church should challenge itself to find "a fraternal space" for homosexuals without compromising Catholic doctrine on family and matrimony.

While the text did not signal any change in the Church's condemnation of homosexual acts or its opposition to gay marriage, it used language that was less judgmental and more compassionate than past Vatican statements under previous popes.

The document will be the basis for discussion for the second and final week of the assembly, known as a synod, which was called by Pope Francis and focuses on the theme of the family.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/13/catholic-church-gays-_n_5976134.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

My comment on Huffington Post:

(Is the Papacy) less advanced than secular and humanist ethics on homosexuality? Of course. It's relevant because of all the Catholics who do not yet accept secular and humanist ethics unless the Pope says that such is acceptable.

Maybe there is an ulterior motive -- like ensuring that there be more married Catholic couples capable of adopting children and raising them as Catholics, which might lead to a reduction in abortion. As a secular humanist I would easily make that concession to the Catholic Church. Accept SSM, but recognize that such implies more Catholic households (because of acceptance of SSM) and perhaps a reduction in abortions? That is a win-win proposition for me.

Secular humanists have gone as far as they can in getting people to accept gay and lesbian rights because there aren't that many secular humanists who remain unconvinced on homosexual rights. If we get an ally in the Pope -- wonderful. Many pay attention to what the Pope says on ethical issues. If devout, non-secular Catholics can accept same-sex marriage, then one political excuse for opposing SSM dies. Some states with large Catholic populations (Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas) still have statutory bans on SSM.

PS: I am using my late mother's Facebook account due to the difficulty of changing identities on Facebook. She has yet to complain.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Support for Gay Marriage by state. on: October 10, 2014, 08:03:46 pm
These data appear in another Forum.
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which states qualify as culturally Southern? on: October 10, 2014, 06:50:35 pm
Virginia politics are very Northern, the only former-Confederate state to vote for Hoover in 1928, one of two such states (Florida was the other) to vote for Nixon in 1960,...

Nope, it was one of five to vote for Hoover.  Tennessee also voted for Nixon.

I stand corrected.
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is nationwide gay marriage inevitable? on: October 10, 2014, 06:50:03 pm
Any state that elects Democrats to replace a right-wing Republican Governor and Attorney General (I think of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan) will get SSM fast -- by February 2015 if the Supreme Court doesn't beat the political system to it.

In view of how the US Supreme court has ruled -- anyone who has any chance to protect a ban on SSM will need a powerful argument.



 
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is nationwide gay marriage inevitable? on: October 10, 2014, 05:33:50 pm
My take, revised to 6PM EST 10/10/14 :




Ignore shades, as I derive this map from another partly of my creation:

white -- SSM already legal.
green -- inevitable through majority support at the next opportunity
blue -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court  but popular anyway
orange -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court even if unpopular.
yellow -- borderline case, could easily drift favorable.
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