Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 04, 2015, 06:58:31 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 476
26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IL-PPP: Hillary dominating on: August 01, 2015, 09:10:54 am
The Kirk campaign of 2010 was dirty -- including an attempt to link a Greek-American opponent to the Sicilian Mafia.

Are there any Greek-American crime syndicates?
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is this the most progressive decade since the 1960's? on: August 01, 2015, 07:41:22 am
It is in some respects, but the ever-growing influence of money in politics is a major drawback.

That on the whole negates the idea that the 2010s are a liberal decade. Only two years really are... America is becoming a plutocratic oligarchy; the plutocrats don't give a d@mn about same-sex marriage. But destroying labor unions, gutting the welfare system, shifting taxes from the rich to the non-rich, privatizing anything in sight if such can turn a profit at the expense of social equity, full-bore monopolization...

The best description of the ethos behind contemporary American politics is "He who owns the gold makes the rules." Such is a very illiberal, reactionary basis of politics. 

 
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FAIL: Clinton attacks Bush ignorant of the facts on: July 31, 2015, 10:08:40 pm
The economic growth under Jeb Bush in Florida during the Double-Zero decade was the result of the speculative boom that burst in 2008.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio compares the killing of Cecil the lion to abortion on: July 31, 2015, 12:18:59 pm
It is wiser to compare positions on heated issues to principles better established. So what did Thomas Paine say of how to compensate slave owners for the loss of 'their' slaves?

He said, nothing -- because slaves are stolen property. Thieves and receivers of stolen property have no right to the property.
30  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should Spanish be an official language in the US? on: July 31, 2015, 10:21:57 am
Might as well -- at least if English should be made official.

French could be official in some parts of New England.
31  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Is wearing a native american costume in the carnival racism? on: July 31, 2015, 10:20:35 am
Heidi Klum, a German (who may not have known what she was doing), wore a full tribal headdress typically worn by men  -- so she was even cross-dressing without even realizing it.
32  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Where do you stand on the killing of Cecil the Lion? on: July 31, 2015, 10:18:43 am
A canned hunt for a lion?

It's about as heroic as a canned hunt for a dog.  (Dogs have some very lion-like behavior).
33  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should the age of consent be lowered to 14? on: July 31, 2015, 10:15:08 am
14 if the partner is under 16
15 if the partner is under 18
16 if the partner is under 21
18 regardless of the partner's age

The third one criminalizes a lot of people.

Anyone over 21 seeking a sex partner under 16 is almost certainly a predator. There's a huge gap in behavior between 16 and 21 -- bigger than between 21 and 35. 
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Dubya was Never President... on: July 31, 2015, 04:33:31 am
To your credit, pbrower, a President Voinovich sounds amazing

Certain aspects of history are undeniable. One is that George W. Bush was objectively the least-suited people to have ever become President in at least a century*, and that he had one of the most troubled Presidencies ever. It is not that he was so much more conservative; it was that he was basically the new Warren G. Harding. Dubya created his own problems.

As for Voinovich, he had been Governor of Cleveland, Governor of Ohio, and a US Senator. Can anyone imagine a more  impressive curriculum vitae for President of the United States? If anyone was ever prepared to be President without being severely past-prime**, there he was.

My critique of Dubya goes beyond partisan sniping. Even if I am a very partisan Democrat I cannot simply say "liberal good; conservative bad". I have the obligation to the extent that I fancy myself an amateur historian that some conservative Republican -- yea many other conservative Republicans of the time -- would have been far better than Dubya.

9/11 could have been stopped by disrupting the network in place, active inside America,  in 2001. A wave of arrests would have done the trick. If I had been President I would have hit the roof upon connecting al-Qaeda interest in commercial jetliners and its MO of transforming heavy equipment  (previously vehicles and boats) into explosive devices. (I would have likely misinterpreted the danger as one of al-Qaeda loading jetliners with explosives and detonating them where they would do the most damage, but the defense against that would be similar -- keep al-Qaeda away from jetliners). I might not have seen a commercial jetliner as a missile itself unless I had the luck to ask the real experts in the Armed Forces...

Dubya was afraid to insult Arab leaders.  Tough. al-Qaeda was about as much an expression of Islam as the KKK is an expression of Christianity.

Economics? Republicans would have been wise to push the old conservative virtues of thrift, enterprise, deferred gratification, self-reliance, and probity that worked in the past to foster economic growth. Paradoxically Democrats may end up with that by default as Republicans taking their economic values from the Double-Zero Decade.  Instead Dubya pushed a speculative boom that went catastrophically wrong.

For all the Republicans who think President Obama a disaster -- Dubya made him possible. 
 
*The non-entities of the late 19th century between Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt operated in a far-simpler world with far fewer dangers.

** the rap on James Buchanan.   
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac National: Close race between Clinton and Bush/Walker on: July 31, 2015, 04:01:31 am
A rap that I once heard on Hillary Clinton is that she "isn't an effective liar".

36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker? on: July 30, 2015, 09:10:01 am
On Rand Paul -- he is not enough of a militarist to promise to use the US Armed Forces to enforce the will of the Koch Brothers if leadership in some other country balks at doing Koch bidding.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Dubya was Never President... on: July 30, 2015, 09:08:15 am
The Twin Towers are still standing because Al Gore has heeded the intelligence reports and taken them seriously.

Al Gore is a one-term President, and the Presidency has passed to a reasonably-competent Republican (Lugar, Voinovich?). There is no speculative bubble in real estate, so any "Crash of 2008" is linked to the end of the Big Dig project instead of to financial shenanigans and is not as severe. Dubya and people around him never got a chance to polarize American politics as much as he did.

"General Motors is alive and Osama bin Laden is dead" is the appeal of the Republican President in 2008.

It is a very different world. 
38  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should the age of consent be lowered to 14? on: July 30, 2015, 09:01:40 am
HELL NO!

39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 elections if GOP wins White House on: July 29, 2015, 10:54:23 pm
Republicans lose the midterm advantage that they had in 2010 and 2014. Many House seats that the Republicans won in 2010 become vulnerable if the President is at all unpopular. An R+5 seat will be vulnerable with an unpopular Republican President -- maybe someone who takes extreme positions.

Count on Democratic-friendly media turning upon the Republican President, especially if the President is seen as extreme. What Republican-leaning media did to Obama, Democrats will do to a Republican President.

To the Republicans' advantage, there just aren't many R Senate seats in play. Democrats would have to get their gains in the South, which implies reversing a 40-year trend quickly.

The Republicans really don't have a New Ronald Reagan capable of winning over 'shaky' Democrats. 
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker? on: July 29, 2015, 10:22:24 pm
Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker?

The Koch brothers own Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Seriously, ElectionsGuy—you cannot "understand" this?!

Again, this is a dumb meme. They don't own him anymore than they own any other Republican.

He is more blatantly servile to the Koch syndicate.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 29, 2015, 10:17:59 pm
PPP, Illinois:

The Land of Lincoln isn't going to vote for the Party that Abraham Lincoln practically created. Of course, the Party of Lincoln has become a mirror image of a Party of Lenin.

Can you just post the maps without making these silly comments?

I could -- but I usually post such a comment once about a state.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: July 29, 2015, 01:30:46 pm
PPP, Illinois:

The Land of Lincoln isn't going to vote for the Party that Abraham Lincoln practically created. Of course, the Party of Lincoln has become a mirror image of a Party of Lenin.

Clinton 48 - Bush 39
Clinton 51 - Huckabee 35
Clinton 47 - Paul 37
Clinton 49 - Rubio 39
Clinton 50 - Walker 39

Sanders beats every Republican now in Illinois, so if something happens to Hillary Clinton, he has a chance.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IL_72915.pdf

Minnesota next week.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker? on: July 29, 2015, 01:14:27 pm
Scott Walker promises to cut taxes for the rich, sell off the public sector, eviscerate unions, promote monopoly, and wreck the environment as the Koch brothers want. 
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: July 29, 2015, 12:38:53 pm
Mark Kirk, R-IL

Approval 25%, disapproval 42%, undecided 33%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IL_72915.pdf

I have waited for a poll. I don't see him sticking around a 25% approval, but I see no possibility of him getting in the range for winning re-election. He was elected under freakish circumstances that will not be repeated in 2016. Terrible mis-match for the state.



Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40      4      0
40-44    2      0
45-49    2      2
50-54    3     0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   10      2





45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AZ-Sen: Fabrizio+Lee (R-Chamber of Commerce): McCain dominating, far above water on: July 29, 2015, 11:11:13 am
Donald Trump has been skewering John McCain.  That will hurt.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Boy Scouts Lifts Ban on Gay Scout Leaders on: July 28, 2015, 03:57:28 pm
The BSA can still insist upon a rigidly-enforced  "no sex, please" policy in Scouting activities. It has always been contrary to Scouting policies to allow a straight male to participate in sex with a straight female. Scouting is not about sex. Many other things, but not sex.

Once again, a conservative organization with a firm base in tradition (see also the LDS Church)  can better deal with such an innovation as same-sex marriage than can a group always redefining itself as trends change.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Effect of Puerto Rican Statehood on: July 28, 2015, 09:56:07 am
Three more sure D electoral votes.
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How will the USA end? on: July 28, 2015, 09:55:20 am
We are losing what made America unique because other nations are imitating what they like and rejecting what they dislike. Any decline is relative. A country like South Korea used to be about as poor as Haiti and it is catching up with America in many respects. America proves to have done nothing positive that the rest of the world can't do.

Our political order is extremely resilient. So long as America doesn't sink into despotism it will keep adapting to technological change.
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republicans Are Too Angry About Gay Marriage on: July 27, 2015, 09:26:00 pm
Republicans actually need to keep being 'hateful' to save voters interest. People must have an alternative to liberal agenda. Because otherwise America will turn into a totalitarian country then where only one opinion prevails.

Same-sex marriage is the law of the land.

Republicans now offer the wrong sort of conservatism -- superstition, crony capitalism, and militarism. If anything, much of the conservative tradition (the part that respects rational thought, insists that the common man have a stake in the system, that probity in business dealings be the norm, that the government not choose winners and losers, that pushes thrift and self-development, and that abhors war as a budget-buster) has gone to the Democratic Party.

Democrats are winning parts of the electorate that demographically fit the Republican Party at least as late as the 1980s. Don't be fooled: if President Obama could get such large parts of the Asian and Hispanic vote, then he was picking up some voters with some conservative and traditionalist tendencies.    
Crony Capitalism: Well the top 1% have taken home more of this countries income growth under Obama than they did under Bush W.

Government chooses winners and losers-Remember the energy company "Solyndra" the company "The Obama Administration" gave money to? Well they went broke.

What parts of the electorate are the Dems winning that the GOP used to win as recently as the 1980's? "Postgraduate" is the only demographic I can think of along with "Asians". I just think Asians started voted Dem big time after Newt Gingrich/Republican Revolution of 1994 because the Republicans started to become too Southern for their electoral tastes.


Until recently, as Hispanics joined the middle class they started voting Republican. That is over.

Several "Asian" groups used to be won reliably on anti-Communist appeals. That is over. Even Korean-Americans have drifted D. North Korea is the butt of many political jokes among liberals. Communist insurgencies have faded into irrelevance in most "Asian" communities. 

"Southern right-wing" means white privilege in practice, support of fundamentalist Christianity, and anti-intellectualism. No Asian group has a vested interest in any of those.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How will the USA end? on: July 27, 2015, 09:13:25 pm
Other. Supervolcano eruption  (Yellowstone caldera), asteroid strike, gamma ray burst, plague that decimates humanity..
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 476


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines