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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MT-Gravis: All Republicans ahead of Hillary on: March 25, 2015, 09:24:04 am
Montana became R when the ranch interests became more powerful than the mining interests. To be sure, the mine owners can be reactionary in the extreme, but miners have often been the most militant union members of all. Ranch owners must create a tolerable existence for ranch hands, supplying even housing. The rancher-hand relationship is more paternal than confrontational.   
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs on: March 25, 2015, 09:19:00 am
Some models well suit low-participation elections (mid-term elections) that usually favor the Republicans. 2010 and 2014 are examples. Some models well serve high-participation elections, typically Presidential years or those rare years in which the Presidential administration is in utter disarray (the latter, 2006).

   
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 25, 2015, 09:14:09 am
You don't make maps with Rubio?

I don't make them with Carson, Cruz, Giuliani, Palin, or Ryan either. Or on the other side Biden or Warren.

Rubio showed himself as a marginal pol. He could have trouble getting re-elected in the Senate. His approval rating is 45% in Florida.

29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / The last time a state voted for this Party's nominee: on: March 25, 2015, 12:40:44 am
The last time a state voted...

for the Democrat




dark red, 2012
medium red, 2008
pink, 1996
light blue, 1992
medium blue, 1976
dark blue, 1964

For the Republican:




2012 dark blue
2004 light blue
2000 white
1988 pink
1984 red
1972 deep red

The District of Columbia has never voted for any Republican nominee.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs on: March 24, 2015, 11:11:36 pm
Tipping point states, binary elections, since 1988:

1988 -- Michigan
(two involving Ross Perot)
2000 -- Florida
2004 -- Ohio
2008 -- Iowa
2012 -- Colorado

2016 -- Minnesota in a D blowout
Pennsylvania in a strong D victory
Virginia in a decisive D victory or a nail-biter

31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-Gravis: Hillary only barely ahead of GOPers on: March 24, 2015, 05:50:05 pm
We have seen plenty of polls of New Hampshire, and we will see more. I am accepting Gravis polls for Montana and Nevada for a lack of alternatives.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 24, 2015, 05:47:35 pm
First, the good news for Republicans: Any Republican nominee for President is going to win a gigantic swath of territory, and it will have a dominating appearance on the electoral map.

Now for the bad news: it's Montana, which has only three electoral votes to offer.

49-35 Bush/Clinton
48-38 Paul/Clinton
49-37 Walker/Clinton
50-33 Christie/Clinton
50-33 Huckabee/Clinton

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/

Not my favorite pollster, but it could be the last poll that I see of Montana for a while. 
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 24, 2015, 11:08:51 am
Breaking: Senator Coats (R-IN) will not run for re-election.

Quote
U.S. Senator Dan Coats has just informed Indy Politics that he will NOT run for another term in the U.S. Senate.
...

When asked why he decided not to run, Coats said he would have to spend the next two years campaigning instead of playing a vital role in the Senate.  In addition, had he won re-election he would be nearly 80 by the end of his second term.

http://indypolitics.org/2015/03/24/coats-not-running-for-re-election/





...A change from here on:

I am showing the party of the incumbent Senator not running for re-election.

34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 24, 2015, 10:50:33 am
Florida, PPP:

Rubio 45-40.

Could lose to a strong and relevant campaigner. Prediction: The US Senate race in Florida will be the most expensive of all US Senate campaigns  in 2016.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf




35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 24, 2015, 10:41:52 am
PPP, Florida:

Clinton 47 - Bush 44
Clinton 49 - Christie 41
Clinton 49 - Huckabee 44
Clinton 46 - Paul 42
Clinton 49 - Walker 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf

We get to add Scott Walker to the mix. Some of the commanding leads that Hillary had in the last poll seem to be cut a bit.  Approval  for President Obama is back to 45%, so he is no longer a drag on a campaign for a Democrat.

Biden ties Walker; Warren barely edges Walker.






  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Election Night 2020: Scenario President Cruz re-elected on: March 24, 2015, 08:58:01 am
If still alive in America -- cheering as directed by the staff of the political prison in which I am an inmate.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Here we can contrast elections on: March 24, 2015, 08:55:30 am
Now let's contrast the two elections (1948, 1968) involving racists seceding from the mainstream Democratic Party to form a Third Party.  




Thurmond 1948, Wallace 1968  -- dark green
Thurmond 1948, Nixon 1968 -- medium green
Truman 1948, Wallace 1968 -- light green

== NO STATE WENT FROM DEWEY TO WALLACE ==

Truman 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- red
did not vote 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- pink

Truman 1948, Nixon 1968  -- white
Dewey 1948, Humphrey 1968 -- yellow

Dewey 1948, Nixon 1968 -- dark blue
did not vote 1948, Nixon 1968 -- light blue

....I'm going to figure that Thomas E. Dewey was not a good campaigner. He must have assumed that Harry Truman was so awful that few could ever vote for such a hack.

Strom Thurmond took votes away from Truman -- but not Dewey. Thurmond had no political strength outside the core South.  He did not appear on the ballot, apparently, in many Northern states, but it would have done him no good. He got 0.17% of the vote in North Dakota, which is clearly not a Southern state and never was, and 0.03% of the vote in California. Off the core of the South he got:

  0.40% MD
  1.27% KY
  8.80% NC
  9.11% TX
10.35% VA
13.41% TN
15.54% FL
16.52% AR
20.31% GA

Of those states, Truman won all but Maryland. Henry Wallace did better in Maryland than did Dewey. Oddly, Truman lost Maryland by a margin less than the (Henry) Wallace vote of 1948. Wallace ran to the left (some say very far to the left) of Truman.

Thurmond was largely a protest vote. Most of the Thurmond vote would return to the Democratic fold in 1952 and 1956.

...

George Wallace had bigger ambitions than Thurmond; he actively campaigned outside the South. He got 12.07% of the vote in Alaska, 12.55% of the vote in Idaho, 11.45% in Indiana, 10.19% in Kansas, 10.04% of the vote in Michigan, 13.25% in New Jersey, and 11.81% of the vote in Ohio, suggesting that he was appealing to more than a protest vote on race.

Add the Wallace vote to the Humphrey vote, and Humphrey wins decisively. America really no longer has Richard Nixon to 'kick around'.  Using Indiana as an example of the argument that Humphrey would have won like Truman had he also won the Wallace vote, Nixon would have barely won Indiana, much as Dewey did in 1948. Republicans do not win the Presidency when they barely win Indiana, as in 1948.  Ruling out states in which Wallace won 10% or more of the vote, Humphrey would have won in addition to the 191 electoral votes that he in fact won:

California     40
Illinois          26
New Jersey  17
Wisconsin    12
Oregon          6    
--------------------

total shift    101

...enough for 282 electoral votes.

So why do I not mention some other states like Ohio? Because I would then need to discuss such states as Florida and Virginia.  

All right. The Democratic Party was in disarray in 1968. Robert F. Kennedy might have won the nomination and gotten a result closer to Truman 1948... or my scenario.  Humphrey pieced together most of a splintered coalition reeling from the failure of the Vietnam War. Nixon had no problem with Party unity.    

  
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Asian American vote by state... on: March 24, 2015, 12:29:21 am
Why are Vietnamese so right wing in the US? They tend to be NDP supporters here... and  by here, I mean in Ottawa.

Anti-communism. That used to win among Chinese-Americans and Korean-Americans... but China seems more a trade partner to most Asian-American groups than the old source of anti-capitalist extremism. Korean-Americans are still hostile to Communism... but only toward the Communism in North Korea. Truth be told, Korean-Americans would probably be delighted to find that the People's Liberation Army were liberating North Korea after the North Korean regime did something incredibly unwise.

Many Vietnamese-Americans have more recent and bitter memories of the Communist takeover of Vietnam and personal consequences.  Koreans who have personal memories of the Korean War, let alone Chinese who remember the Mao takeover, are now old. 
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 23, 2015, 03:45:30 pm
PPP will have a poll out for Florida in a couple of days.

We should soon discover whether there is any Great Right Hope for the next President.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 23, 2015, 01:42:26 pm
Quinnipiac poll of New York:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2179

Clinton 54%
Christie 34%

Clinton 59%
Paul 31%

Clinton 58%
Huckabee 29%

Clinton 58%
Bush 30%

Clinton 58%
Rubio 31%

Clinton 58%
Walker 31%

Clinton 60%
Cruz 27%

Clinton 55%
Pataki 34%

If you want a good mystery set in New York on the night of the 2016 general election, your best hope will be that Turner Classic Movies will be playing the great Hitchcock masterpiece Rear Window.  It won't be the Empire State's 38 electoral votes.



  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In a 49 state landslide can Hillary carry... on: March 22, 2015, 11:07:38 pm
In a 49-state landslide for the Democrats, the lone holdout state would probably be Oklahoma.

I figure that in a 49-state landslide the Republican nominee has alienated Mormons and loses Utah.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election night 2016:Ted Cruz declared the winner. What is your reaction? on: March 22, 2015, 11:01:09 pm
Move to a country in which people appreciate freedom enough to not elect someone like Ted Cruz.

...Of course I would expect him to do about 33 electoral votes better than Barry Goldwater in 1964  because of the difference in electoral votes of Arizona in 1964 and Texas in 2016.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will MI correct the Electoral College bias towards Democrats? on: March 21, 2015, 05:10:09 pm
Haha at Democrats panicking because they may lose EVs

Haha at Republicans panicking because they can't win a state fairly.

Because of ing Detroit tilting the whole state that would otherwise be a likely Republican state

Wrong. Michigan has given a plurality of votes to Democrats in each Presidential election beginning in 1992. Any scheme that would have given the majority of electoral votes in Michigan to the Republican Party in any subsequent election would be a gross distortion of the vote of Michiganders.

The split of congressional districts in Michigan (see also Ohio and Pennsylvania) is so designed that Democrats would need an effective majority of 55-45 or so for Democrats in the net vote for Congressional seats to break even in Congressional representation. Republican-designed reapportionment of districts has ensured that a small number of seats are easy wins for Democrats but all other districts have a clear built-in advantage for Republicans.

The worst possible result (short of a partisan governor deciding the electoral results on his whim) would be that districts allocate votes as they vote ion the Presidential race and that the winner of the majority of such districts gets the two other votes.

By the way -- why does a (presumably black and poor) vote in Detroit have less value than the vote of some rich farmer or executive? The vote is the only participation that anyone surely has irrespective of his economic plight. Government is responsible to the por as well as the rich lest one have a plutocratic oligarchy.

But keep pushing the agenda of the Koch syndicate and its legislative arm ALEC upon us all and your satisfaction at us liberals moaning and gnashing our teeth will soon be your nightmare, too. If black voters are the difference between democracy and fascism, then all hail the votes of black people who can keep American politics more moral than is the usual case of a plutocratic oligarchy.   

 
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which Party is more of a threat to the ideas and goals of libertarianism? on: March 21, 2015, 08:14:14 am
Crony capitalism ensures that most people have no freedom to compete -- only to work or starve. A war-driven economy is inevitably regimented as badly as the armed forces.

Neither big party is libertarian.
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black Man Found Hanging from Tree in Mississippi on: March 21, 2015, 08:12:11 am
We don't know enough to judge this unfortunate incident.

It took time for investigators to figure that Michael Donald was murdered and how, that he did not die of the hanging (his body was hanged after he was dead, and strangulation by hanging leaves specific injuries which Michael Donald did not have -- he was beaten to death), and finally who did it.

Expect much the same process. Investigate, and if there is evidence of murder, prosecute.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: How did the 2014 predictions compare? on: March 20, 2015, 10:12:16 pm
Few predicted how effective the Koch fronts would be at buying the election except the insiders, and they gladly let us believe that Democrats had a chance.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will MI correct the Electoral College bias towards Democrats? on: March 20, 2015, 04:12:09 pm
Go to national popular vote, split electoral votes proportionately in all states, or stick with the current winner-take-all by state system. Assigning electoral votes by Congressional district does more to confirm the artificial divisions of some states into gerrymandered districts than to represent the People.

Any trick that effectively distorts the result of the popular vote other than the well-recognized winner-take-all system will be seen as disenfranchising voters.

The state-by-state winner take all method is well-recognized as "disenfranchising" voters.

In practice, yes -- in that large parts of the electorate become irrelevant in Presidential elections... such as blacks in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Missouri; unionized workers in Indiana; non-Mormon voters in Utah; and Hispanics in Arizona and Texas who can be ignored once the primaries are over because their states are 'sure Republican'.  Likewise on the other side denizens of the rural parts of Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania who vote heavily Republican.

Did anyone realize that the state in which John McCain won the most votes was... California? McCain lost his third through seventh 'best' states for popular votes and his ninth through twelfth such states. On the other side, Barack Obama had Texas as the fourth-best state in total votes cast for him (indeed, he won more votes in Texas than in Illinois).   

There has been no effective Supreme Court challenge to winner-take-all in any state. Until there is such a challenge, the flawed system that we now have remains in practice.

Quote
The National Popular Vote bill ensures that every voter is equal, every voter will matter, in every state, in every presidential election, and the candidate with the most votes wins, as in virtually every other election in the country.

Such would require either a Constitutionally-accepted compact among states wielding in the whole 270 or more electoral votes or a Constitutional amendment that would so order the votes of the states to be so distributed. Of course, what happens if a State governor is granted the prerogative to cast 50 million votes on behalf of the winner of his state? 
   
Quote
Under National Popular Vote, every voter, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. Every vote would be included in the state counts and national count.

Obviously one needs protection against mass disenfranchisement of voters, phantom voting, and rigged elections at the state level (still possible).

Quote
When states with a combined total of at least 270 electoral votes enact the bill, the candidate with the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC would get the needed majority of 270+ electoral votes from the enacting states. The bill would thus guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes and the majority of Electoral College votes.

Such would have saved America lots of trouble in 2000; I think that many of us can imagine how different America would have been with President Al Gore. On the other side we have the potential of having a President who has won 270 electoral votes by narrowly winning enough states with narrow margins while losing most of the rest by margins characteristic of Goldwater in 1964 or McGovern in 1972. Imagine a President who lost the popular vote 52-47 yet won 273 electoral votes. (Invert that and that is how the US House of Representatives was in 2012).   

48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads all GOP candidates by double digits on: March 20, 2015, 01:44:14 am
The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

So what? It's nearly the same as her favorables in May 2014. Regardless, even Hillary's numbers in June 08 are far superior to any of the Republican candidates.

Quote
The same poll you are using shows that Hillary has a 43% favorable rating and a 54% unfavorable rating among all whites. That's 11 points underwater. That works for someone like Obama who can pull a very large minority turnout, but it's not good news in HRC's case.

In Obama's comfortable 2012 victory, he lost the white vote 59-39. So a 43-54 favorable rating among whites is pretty damn good. And you're overestimating how far minority turnout will fall. Blacks still turned out for Gore and Kerry after all. If Hillary wins 40% of the white vote, she wins the election.

Blacks did not turn out for Kerry, at least, nothing like they did for Obama. Bush got 11% of the black vote, McCain/Romney got 4 and 6% respectively. I expect the black vote to be more republican in 2016, simply because there will not be a black on the democratic ticket, and there are blacks, like it or not, who voted for Obama solely because of his race. I will be very surprised if the republican candidate in 2016 does not hit 8% of the black vote, and I can definitely see 10 or even 12%.


Of course there were white people who voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney because Barack Obama is black.  How many? We will never know. But that is likely larger than the number of blacks who voted for Obama because he is black.

I look at some of the splits, and I see a weakening of regional strengths of the Republican Party in the last two Presidential elections. 

 
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black Man Found Hanging from Tree in Mississippi on: March 19, 2015, 05:05:35 pm
The first question that I would figure that the FBI would seek to answer -- are the decedent's fingerprints on the rope? If so, then suicide. If not, then murder.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: March 19, 2015, 02:44:28 pm
CNN/ORC national poll:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/03/17/poll.2016.pdf

Clinton 55%
Bush 40%

Clinton 55%
Christie 40%

Clinton 55%
Rubio 42%

Clinton 55%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 54%
Paul 43%

Clinton 56%
Carson 40%

Clinton 55%
Walker 40%

With the caveat that this is an adult poll... If those who respond to such a poll who do not subsequently vote are Democrats, then we can lop about 2% from the Clinton numbers, but those for Republicans -- all Republicans -- are very bad.

There aren't many undecided in these polls, and with Hillary getting favored by 55% or so, even if all of the undecided are R-leaning that still puts Hillary Clinton at 55-45 or so.   

This is inconsistent with the polls shown in the thread so far. Most of the polling on this map is by PPP or Quinnipiac, both of which tend to get slightly R-friendly results. Most of the polls are of states that Obama won twice, and Hillary Clinton has shown herself winning just about all those states. But not that big.

The only state that has a poll by a pollster that I have ever heard of in which Obama lost twice is South Carolina, and that one looks much closer. I can hardly imagine Hillary gaining enough support on the West Coast exclusively to win California 75-25.

We may see polls of Georgia, Arizona, and Texas soon enough to tell us..

The last time we had a 54-46 split of the Presidential vote, the results looked thus:
 


No, I don't have the color-scheme inverted; that was 1988, and the elder Bush won.
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