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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: FBI/CIA Investigating Possible Secret Russian Money Used to Aid Trump on: January 19, 2017, 12:39:36 pm
In other countries this is the stuff that precedes a military coup.

A troika of Jim Mattis, Joe Dunford and maybe Michael Hayden might actually be better than the alternative. They certainly wouldn't sell us out to Russia

(And now KimgSweden is banned for musing positively about a military junta)

This is an extreme no-win situation. The optimum would be a re-do of the Presidential election and the Senate elections. (The House can wait until 2018 as scheduled).  One hopes that the American economic system and most public administration can limp along as if there is no meaningful President...
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: FBI/CIA Investigating Possible Secret Russian Money Used to Aid Trump on: January 19, 2017, 11:24:56 am
In other countries this is the stuff that precedes a military coup.
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Political Correctness and Communism on: January 19, 2017, 11:23:44 am
It's kinda hard to believe you aren't racist when your graph says non-whites entering a white country equals that country becoming a third world hellhole

Mexican-Americans have been considered 'white' for legal purposes (the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo has applied throughout the territories annexed from Mexico with respect to voting rights, housing, and intermarriage) since 1848. There were large Hispanic populations in California, New Mexico, and Texas by local standards in 1848, and such people are still there. Most African ancestry in America comes from people taken in the piracy known as the slave trade.  I doubt that any Asian-American community qualifies as a "Hell-hole" on the whole.

In the old "Is Connecticut the Best State?" thread I noticed that white people in West Virginia fare less well than Hispanics in Virginia, blacks in Maryland, First Peoples in California, or Asian-Americans anywhere... so if anyone wants to look for the part of America becoming a "Third World hellhole" one need only look to some very-white bastions in the Mountain South (which includes Appalachia and the Ozarks, largely).  
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who would be in a Democratic "shadow" government? on: January 19, 2017, 11:10:53 am
I wonder, if it was common for the opposition party in the U.S. to form a shadow government, who would be in a Democratic shadow government?


It does not happen that way. The Democratic Party is very disorganized much as the Republicans were in early 2009. Just a reminder of how quickly things can change.

Yes, I know it doesn't happen that way.  My question is who would be in a Democratic party shadow government.  Do you even know what a shadow government/cabinet is?

One meaning is that a Great Power (let us say China) already has a list of people that it can rely upon to form a government in a country that it suddenly must take over (for China, that is most likely North Korea) in the event of someone doing something incredibly stupid. The United States had such a shadow government for Iraq.   

Truth be told, the United States will have a dominant-Party system tomorrow, and any 'shadow government'  is likely being contemplated in China. That would be (and this applies to some US states, notably Alaska, Hawaii, California, Washington, Oregon, and Nevada in the event that such states would be split off from America) less militaristic and more amenable to free trade... 

Democrats can now concern themselves with keeping their political achievements from the New Deal to Obamacare from being destroyed or sold off to the bidder that the GOP chooses and working on getting whatever gains and protecting what little they have in the 2018 elections (the Democrats have more vulnerable Senate seats to protect, but they have some potential gains in Gubernatorial elections).  If they are fortunate, Democrats can have a mirror image of Ronald Reagan to face the sure failure that is Donald Trump and the offense that is Mike Pence -- and plenty of Senate seats open for challenge in 2020. .

People not rich can simply suffer for people who think them livestock at best and vermin at worst.  Just think about it: the Secretary of Education  that Donald Trump is a sister of the founder of the infamous Blackwater enterprise.  If you want some idea of what America will be like, then re-read Orwell's 1984 before it is banned here.

We Americans can perversely congratulate ourselves as we have just made Switzerland the world's oldest continuous democracy and India the most powerful democracy. We have elected a tyrannical boss and a Congress of his stooges. 

30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Political Correctness and Communism on: January 19, 2017, 10:50:15 am
I'm not sure there's a direct correlation. However, I will say I think the left has lost their minds a bit on identity politics. Hillary Clinton would have won the election had she run as her husband's campaign of 1996. Of course, her husband's '96 campaign said "We should end Welfare as we know it", and "The era of big government is over". He signed the DOMA that year, and also received FOP police endorsements for his tough on crime stances.

Identity politics would be more of a menace if people started demanding that government serve specific communities. That has not happened. There has been no drive to promote patronage in favor of certain 'ethnic' groups at the expense of white people. The rise of the large black and Hispanic middle classes is more analogous to the rise of Polish-Americans and Italian-Americans, neither of which got special breaks for belonging to distinctive communities. The Hispanic (except for Cuban-Americans) and especially black middle classes are more obvious (you cannot identify Polish-Americans except by surnames... I should know, as I do genealogy in an area with many people of Polish origin) by physical characteristics... but there's not much of a "hate Whitey" constituency in either.     

Quote
Everything I just described is now considered "racist", "homophobic" and "intolerant" by the left of today's Democratic Party.

Anyone still proud to be white is literally deplorable.

Quote
I think the problem that has liberals in meltdown right now is that America didn't vote for their vision. They made Donald Trump out as "deplorable, racist, sexist, homophobic, misogynistic, ect....and America responded by electing him with over 300 electoral votes.


The electoral results do nothing to show that Donald Trump isn't  "deplorable, racist, sexist, homophobic, misogynistic", etc. ... he proved the ideal demagogue for appealing to people with huge frustrations, including witness to the rise of a large non-white middle class that dislikes white losers.  Donald Trump appealed in part to mass vulgarity generally associated with ignoramuses. For many white people the only chance that they have of getting rich is buying a potential winner of the Super-Duper Megabucks Lotto... and Donald Trump lives that fantasy.

Quote
That means either A.) American's didn't buy into the Democratic logic or B.) Americans didn't care.

Maybe we Americans need some more education in economics (that there is no free lunch and that change is the norm in economic reality), psychology (so that we be less vulnerable to manipulation by sociopaths and psychopaths), and philosophy (so that we be able to recognize fallacious arguments, especially those involving overt contradictions). But that would take more than K-12 education.  K-14, which would include two years of community college, needs to be the norm. Really, 18-year-olds and 19-year-olds are generally unready for any but the most menial roles in economic life no matter how intelligent they may be. 

"Democratic logic?" There is no such thing, any more than there is "Republican logic". There is only logic. People who reject logic are gullible in the extreme.

Quote
Either way, it's an agonizing defeat for liberals and they don't know how to deal with that.

There will be much agony in America because the government will now serve people who believe that no human suffering is in excess so long as it serves their sadism, greed, power lust, and ostentatious indulgence. For four years the image and reality of America will be the vile personality of Donald Trump.
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who would be in a Democratic "shadow" government? on: January 18, 2017, 11:58:53 pm
I wonder, if it was common for the opposition party in the U.S. to form a shadow government, who would be in a Democratic shadow government?


It does not happen that way. The Democratic Party is very disorganized much as the Republicans were in early 2009. Just a reminder of how quickly things can change.
32  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 18, 2017, 11:55:48 pm
Aren't these the same polls that showed Trump losing?  As far as how people think he'll do it's 48/48.  Democrats can spin it however they want.  Remember polls are fake news.  Nice little work though!

Sure. Polls go obsolete quickly in a dynamic reality. They can also fail to recognize the effectiveness of voter suppression, as in Wisconsin. News that fails to tell the full story is not fake news unless it has a deliberate intent to deceive. Polls measure something and are only estimates of reality.

No conventional wisdom can tell us how well Donald Trump will do as president based upon whether people like him early. Some things, like asparagus and classical music, are acquired tastes. So it could theoretically be with Trump economics -- that the social order that can enforce great sacrifices by people other than elites can lead to incredible gains in productivity that will make the suffering all worthwhile.

Approvals for the transition are awful. This is a chaotic transition, offering to many indications of a chaotic administration that will call for drastic changes that cannot be implemented. Nowhere do people like chaos in governmental administration or foreign policy. 

Donald Trump will work miracles or he will lose the faith of multitudes who voted for him. He had enthusiasm on his side, but that can wear off rapidly if the results are awful. Some expect it all to work well, with America unleashing the phenomenal growth (if with horrible conditions of life by current standards) of the Gilded Age. I look at the personality and see someone that I would not want as a boss. I see someone who has no idea of how to govern without resorting to despotic command unsuited to the American people. I see someone more likely to inspire mass contempt than to convince people to make great sacrifices of political qualities and agendas that they have long cherished.
33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 18, 2017, 02:45:58 pm
Do you get the idea that he is going to be a very active ex-President?
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 18, 2017, 02:43:17 pm
Here's the first poll of a state that in fact voted for Donald Trump (if not by much) -- North Carolina. PPP, as if you are surprised.

January 13-16, 2017
Survey of 953 North Carolina voters

North Carolina Survey Results

Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance?

 50% Approve
..........................................................
 47% Disapprove
......................................................
  4% Not sure
..........................................................
Q2
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?

 44% Favorable
........................................................
 49% Unfavorable
....................................................
  6%  Not sure
....................................................

In other polling news... North Carolinians do not expect Donald Trump to be as good a President as Barack Obama; they trust the intelligence services more than they trust Donald Trump; and they don't look sympathetically upon Russian President Vladimir Putin. They want the Affordable Care Act reformed and strengthened -- not scrapped.

(If you are wondering about Q -- it's polling New York City this week, so any results for the Big Apple will be interesting -- if irrelevant).


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_11817.pdf
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama Commutes Bulk of Chelsea Manning’s Sentence on: January 18, 2017, 09:34:47 am
Chelsea Manning is crazy anyway. I wonder if he will pardon Leonard Peltier and Mumia Abu-Jamal?

Both are murderers. That makes a huge difference.

President Obama might have the authority to pardon Peltier, who is a federal offender (murder of federal law enforcement officials) but not Mumia, whose offense was killing a city cop in Pennsylvania . The President has no authority to pardon someone incarcerated under state law.  
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The president-elect's infrastructure plan: handouts to his billionaire buddies on: January 18, 2017, 09:29:23 am

Makes me wonder why anyone other than the rich EVER votes Republican. Theirs is the same old story. Rob from the poor and give to the rich. Yawn.
The rich are the ones who pay the taxes to begin with.

The rich are the ones who grab the wealth and keep it.The biggest sources of wealth come from owning huge tracts of farmland (the feudal way), gouging the customer, keeping workers overworked and underpaid, and getting huge breaks from the government.
37  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WH considering ending press briefings, and not allowing media on WH grounds on: January 18, 2017, 09:22:05 am
Not surprised.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-white-house-reporters_us_587b82e5e4b0e58057ff43a5

And you know, this is one thing I don't mind. It's not an attack on freedom of the press. It's stripping away their long-held privileges. Hopefully it makes them do real investigative journalism again.

And they will, as they will be looking for corruption, incompetence, and consequences of an extreme agenda. Such does not requite schmoozing with the President. Obama was erudite and engaging enough that he diverted journalists from doing their job. The ideal journalist might be a CPA or a historian...

  
38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 18, 2017, 09:16:18 am
He is on the same level as Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton were at the end of their presidencies. Somewhat surprising to see, but at least many are coming around to give the President the accolades he deserves.

I think that we now see the secret of the next Democratic President: be as much like Barack Obama in character and agenda as possible. Oh yes -- and expect Donald Trump and the Republican-dominated Congress to foul up badly.

If there is one fault with Barack Obama, it is that Donald Trump follows. Except for fornicating, Donald Trump has little in common with JFK.

...The parallel to Eisenhower is fairly good.  Eisenhower had little agenda, and Obama had a much bigger one. Congress went along with Ike, but frustrated Obama enough that their levels of achievement as President were about the same. The curricula vitae could hardly be more different, but both show similar temperaments.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 18, 2017, 09:07:52 am
New poll from Monmouth U, whose reputation probably took the largest hit among pollsters, conducted from 1/12 - 1/15:

34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable, 20% No opinion (who are these people?!?)

The margin is the same as for those pollsters that give Trump favorability around 40%... that negative margin suggests a rough start for the President-Elect.

The only good thing that I can say of it is that if he is going to be down that much, then it had better be early. Can he convince Americans that Corporate America can do more good for them than anyone else, that only the harshest discipline of brutal management and the sting of poverty can force people out of their inherent laziness, and that vicarious delight in the ostentatious display of success by America's 'winners' can bring true happiness? Can his real-estate huckster and reality-TV model of management work well for Americans?

I'd rather watch old movies. Wouldn't you?
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1/17/17 CNN ORC Poll: Trump Approval at 40% on: January 18, 2017, 08:59:36 am
okay, a couple of things.

One, national polls were only off by 2-3 percentage points. State polls were terrible in WI/MI/PA, states where there wasn't much polling in the final days of the election. So we can trust approval rating polls to be accurate.

Two, yeah this is bad for a president-elect. 40% approvals or lower by 2018 and the midterms will be a bloodbath.

Three, it's not guaranteed to be this bad for Trump forever. He could see higher approvals as time passes.

He will need miracles.

State polls were off badly for the three surprising states that Trump won.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were polled frequently, but not often enough at the end.

Trump got a surge in the last few days of the campaign. Polls usually do not show sudden changes. 
41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 17, 2017, 03:17:04 pm
And here we go again! The Trumpster just tweeted what I previously predicted/joked:

Quote from: @realdonaldtrump
The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before.
Link


The orange clown just never grows up. #LOLDrumpf


Again, except for having nice clothes and never being short of cash, Donald Trump reminds me of the semi-literate juvenile delinquents that I knew all too well -- and did everything possible to avoid -- when I was in middle school and high school. The juvenile delinquents either grew up  and took  honest blue-collar jobs (Hooray!) or failed to grow up and ended up in prison for theft or violent crime. 

Nobody has compelled Donald Trump to grow up. He has been exempt from the humiliating (and often humanizing) realities that anyone not born with a silver spoon in his mouth ends up having to endure.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Are the anti-Hillary leftists happy now? on: January 17, 2017, 03:10:37 pm
The problem was that the Republicans nominated a sick joke. Donald Trump was a dreadful candidate for President, and on occasion, sick jokes win elections.  We are safest when we have two strong candidates against each other.

On Friday -- India becomes the most powerful country in the Free World, and Switzerland becomes the oldest democracy. Thank you, Trump voters.
43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 17, 2017, 03:06:01 pm
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
What wonderful times we live in!

I don't trust an impetuous fool with the red button -- or my civil liberties.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The ideology of the next Republican nominee for president on: January 17, 2017, 02:57:30 pm
"Suffer for owners and bosses, but always have faith in God, for you shall get pie in the sky when you die".
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Counter Sting - O'Keefe caught paying people to violently protest Trump on: January 17, 2017, 02:50:35 pm
We Americans are entering strange, uncharted waters, at least for ourselves and without a map (let alone GPS). Other nations have gone with leaders like Donald Trump,  and such has usually been hideous.

This fellow is about as trustworthy as David DuKKKe.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 17, 2017, 02:44:24 pm
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump’s healthcare plan will offer ‘insurance for everybody’: report on: January 17, 2017, 12:54:20 am
Republicans had their chances to ensure better funding of Obamacare with heavy 'sin' taxes on alcohol and tobacco. they could have allowed weight to be a factor in determining insurance rates (obesity contributes to higher costs of health care). They could have pushed legislation that would take sweets, sodas, and snacks off SNAP eligibility because such things contribute to obesity. 

They bet everything on the failure of Obamacare... and they will bet everything on trying to kill it.   
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DisruptJ20 on: January 17, 2017, 12:47:40 am
You don't have to believe James O'Keefe (I don't) to believe that the protesters will behave like the violent little Gestapo thugs they are. But any cars they burn, storefronts they smash, or skulls they crack ironically entrenches the man they're trying to stop.

Gestapo? First of all, the Gestapo invariably took the side of the state, rarely participated in riots (except Kristallnacht), smashed storefront windows only of "Jewish" businesses, and generally did not torch cars -- especially after the Nazis outlawed Jewish ownership of automobiles. They generally did their beatings away from any semblance of public scrutiny.

So it's really simple, liberals -- take photos or video of the violent deeds and give the photos to the relevant police or prosecuting attorneys. Carrying a placard that deprecates Donald Trump is a legitimate act of free expression. Torching a car, assaulting a bystander, or smashing a storefront window during a peaceful demonstration is a criminal act of rioting .

49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DisruptJ20 on: January 17, 2017, 12:36:21 am
Nobody in their right mind takes O'Keefe seriously.

But people in their Right (wing) mind often do.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: He's had enough of it. on: January 16, 2017, 08:18:45 am
Why is this idiocy metasticizing as of late?

It has been metastasizing for a year. It got Trump elected, even with the weakest mandate in American history.

There will be nothing wholesome about the Trump Presidency. Donald Trump will whow Americans through the ages how not to do the role of President.
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