I have been slow to update my map because of a death in the family. Please understand.
Someone else 5
Clinton +5 (Romney +10)
Clinton +24 (Obama +7)
Still comes off as a tie.
California, where Presidential elections are about as exciting as those in Belarus:
October 13-15 (Last poll, September 27-28)
Hillary Clinton: 56% (-3)
Donald Trump: 30% (-3)
Gary Johnson: 4% (+1)
Jill Stein: 2%
Undecided: 7% (+4)http://abc7.com/politics/prop-56-raising-cigarette-tax-favored-to-pass-surveyusa-poll-shows/1559346/
Idaho, Dan Jones. This is an old poll, so it is before the disclosure of the so-called locker-room talk and behavior of Donald Trump.
McMullin was not listed as an option!
Donald Trump holds a 10-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton in Idaho, a just-completed Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
The survey was wrapped up BEFORE the bombshell Trump sexist tape had time to sink in for Idaho voters.
Undoubtedly that tape and the second presidential debate attacks by Trump (and a bit less by Clinton) would have an affect on the presidential race.
IPW pollster Dan Jones & Associates also finds that even though Idaho is voting for Trump, more Idahoans believe Clinton will ultimately win the presidency than those who say Trump will be victorious.
I'm not sure that an endorsement by the LDS hierarchy can pare off 10% of the Idaho vote and throw the state's few electoral votes to someone other than Donald Trump... offend Mormon values and lose Mormon votes. See my comments below on Utah. Because Donald Trump is at 40% and up 10 I will charitably put this poll as a Trump lead of the lowest intensity. It's charitable because I usually treat leads with less than 40% as a tie.
Louisiana, JMC Polling, whatever that is. http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1277-poll-clinton-gaining-on-trump-in-idahohttp://winwithjmc.com/archives/7488
Trump's down from 10 in September, 15 in July.
...Maybe Hillary Clinton is not as polarizing a political figure in the South as Barack Obama was.
New Mexico, Zia Poll (whatever that is):
Clinton - 46%
Trump - 36%
Johnson - 12%
The state-wide survey, conducted on October 11 by ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, showed a big jump for the Clinton campaign. After Sunday’s debate and last week’s release of audio tapes where Trump can be heard making crude and sexual remarks about women, and in spite of the recent release by Wikileaks from Clinton’s hacked email server, Clinton now holds a 10 percent lead over Trump.http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20161017_NM.pdf
When comparing the last NM statewide poll conducted by ZiaPoll on September 24 to the new post-debate results, Clinton increased her lead from 41.8 percent to 46.2 percent while Donald Trump remained at 36 percent. Former New Mexico Governor and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson slipped 4.2 percent and is now polling at 11.8 percent. Undecided votes made up 4.4 percent and 1.7 percent of voters said they would vote for Jill Stein. The majority of Clinton’s gains came at the expense of Gary Johnson - perhaps voters who jumped from Clinton early in the season, but who now feel that their vote for Johnson could help put Trump in office.
Gary Johnson had some chance of spoiling the chance of Hillary Clinton to win New Mexico. That apparently is not going to happen.
Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton: 28%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/
...In view of Donald Trump acting contrary to just about every Mormon value values that non-Mormons are wise to practice in Utah and generally do. I think that McMullin has a very good chance of winning Utah. He has a chance to peel off support from Hillary Clinton and Gary Johnson while Donald Trump loses all credibility. Republicans can expect to win every other statewide race and perhaps every Congressional seat...
Here's my prediction on Utah: McMullin will win, and people are going to discuss the Presidential election in Utah in 2016 for years as an example of how to lose despite the usually-gigantic partisan edge. We are going to see a green or yellow color for Utah on Atlas maps, and it won't be for some racist secessionist from one of the major Parties. You see it here first even with Donald Trump with a 1% lead that I see no cause for him to hold.
Still this comes off as a tie because nobody has 40% of the polling. Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)
Tie -- white
60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9% -- saturation 7
50-54.9% -- saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9% -- saturation 2Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R) 150
(in white) ties -- 36