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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 25, 2015, 08:45:35 am
The first poll of the expected jungle primary in California.

Harris: 34%
Dreier: 19%
Villaraigosa: 16%
Bono(R): 14%
Schiff: 4%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/255307252/California-Poll-Results

Villaraigosa is dropping out, and it is hard to see how Dreier would pick up enough votes to lead K. Harris.

California goes to Solid D in 2016 for this. Republicans would have to finish #1 and #2 in the jungle primary  to have a meaningful chance of winning the open Senate seat (and that scenario would be a sure thing).
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Toomey up 2 on generic D on: February 25, 2015, 08:38:28 am
Weak poll because it is of adults. Having seen polls showing approval for Senator Toomey  everywhere from 28% to 43%, and knowing that Pennsylvania is D+1... he seems a likely loser in 2016. I am not using this one in the Senators-up-for-re-election  approval thread because it is a poll of 'adults'

Republicans look to have a better chance taking a Senate seat in Colorado than defending Pat Toomey. He will need a weak opponent, a lavishly-financed campaign (the brothers Koch), and a political environment similar to 2010 or 2014 to win re-election. 
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 25, 2015, 08:32:07 am
Other parts of the poll (PA):

Approval:
Obama - 44-48
Wolf - 37-13
Toomey - 35-25
Casey - 40-22
Kane - 26-33


http://www.mcall.com/mc-acrobat-morning-call-poll-politics-20150219-acrobat.html

This is a poll of 'adults',  so I cannot use it.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Elon Uni: Hillary up 6 against Bush on: February 25, 2015, 08:27:37 am
North Carolina is definitely the most competitive state Romney won. I'm skeptical that Hillary is favored in NC, but I can predict with confidence that she'll win it before she wins any other Romney state.

By far.

Obama's closest losses in 2012:

North Carolina -2.04
Georgia -7.80
Arizona -9.04
Missouri -9.36
Indiana -10.20
South Carolina -10.47
Mississippi -11.50
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State rep, county party chariman etc. said something stupid - The Megathread on: February 25, 2015, 01:01:29 am
It's not total bunk, just 99.99% bunk.  It wasn't all that long ago you would have been considered a quack to suggest you could treat most stomach ulcers with antibiotics.


True -- the usual treatment for ulcers was to deal with the acid instead of the bacillus that thrived in stomach acid. That a bacillus could thrive in stomach acids that all logic said would digest the bacillus was counter-intuitive.

It was not quackery, but conventional medicine, that discovered the  connection between H. pylori and stomach ulcers. Medicine advances; quackery keeps suggesting copper bracelets for 'that pesky arthur-itis'.

Quote
  We already know of some cancers that are caused by viral infections, so it's not impossible that some could be due to a fungal infection.  Of course, as far as I know, no cancers have been shown to be caused by a fungal infection, but I wouldn't say it is impossible, and it's even more possible that a fungal disease might be able to take advantage of an immune system compromised by cancer or vice versa.

Of course. But just because much cancer comes from using tobacco products does not mean that cancer is tobacco.  Or, in view of another cause, radiation. Or viruses. 

31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 25, 2015, 12:16:14 am
Elon, North Carolina. PPP will almost certainly supplant this one.  I'm not using the 'adult' poll from Pennsylvania.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more








[/quote]
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 25, 2015, 12:13:06 am
North Carolina (registered voters):

Adults:

46-38 Clinton/Bush

Registered voters:

46-40 Clinton/Bush

...

The live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 867 residents of which, 773 said they were registered to vote was conducted Feb. 16-20, 2015. They survey had a margin of error of 3.33 percentage points for all respondents and 3.52 percentage points for registered voters.

http://www.elon.edu/e-net/Article/109015
[/quote]

Pennsylvania (adults):

Clinton 49
Bush 32

Clinton 50
Christie 31

Clinton 50
Romney 29

http://www.mcall.com/mc-acrobat-morning-call-poll-politics-20150219-acrobat.html

33  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State rep, county party chariman etc. said something stupid - The Megathread on: February 25, 2015, 12:03:02 am
Cancer is a FUNGUS?

Nevada Assemblywoman Michele Fiore is the source for this crankiness:

Quote
Last week it was the "hot little girls" on campus remark to the paper of record. And now we have a new one for the gaffiest lawmaker ever, who already has said psychotropic drugs will be a major focus for her this session.

Here's what she said on her radio show this weekend: "I call it my terminally ill bill," she said of new legislation she has proposed (no language yet), "basically changing some provisions of our health care system."

....

"If you have cancer, which I believe is a fungus," she began, citing a widely debunked theory that the American Cancer Society warns about, "and we can put a pic line into your body and we're flushing with, say, salt water, sodium cardonate (I think she means bicarbonate), through that line and flushing out the fungus. These are some procedures that are not FDA-approved in America that are very inexpensive, cost-effective."

Quack, quack, quack! No, that is not a reference to ducks.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Elon Uni: Hillary up 6 against Bush on: February 24, 2015, 09:27:26 pm
Well, since one Republican poll makes MO safe R, I suppose one uni poll can make NC likely D. Smiley I'll take it!

IceSpear, the point with Missouri (which you don't seem to get) is that this is what it's voting has looked like over the last few presidential elections (in terms of the margin between the first and second place finisher):

1992: 4.7% to the left of the nation
1996: 2.2% to the right of the nation
2000: 2.8% to the right of the nation
2004: 4.8% to the right of the nation
2008: 7.3% to the right of the nation
2012: 13.3% to the right of the nation

That's a consistent 20 years of trending republican, without any backtracking at all. Sure, it accelerated under Obama, and Hillary will improve over Obama in MO, but this idea that Hillary can singlehandely reverse the trend enough (from 2012) to actually carry MO in anything short of a massive wave that also involves her carrying NC, GA, and probably AZ is just ridiculous. And as far as your "Crossover voting in 2012 means everything" argument, I'll point out the massive amount of Romney/McCaskill Voters was only due to Akin's rape comments (it wouldn't have happened without those comments) - take away the comments, and McCaskill probably would have lost, and even if she still won somehow, it would be only a 1 or 2 point margin. As for Romney/Nixon voting, comparing presidential elections to gubernatorial elections is so absurd it's not even funny. In any case, outside of republican wave years, conservative states have a pretty good track record of being willing to elect the right sort of democrat to be governor on an occasional basis (Sebelius, Frudenthal, Henry, Bredesen, etc. etc.).

If Hillary wins MO, she will also win NC and GA. That's a prediction, yes. Write it down.

...and AZ. And IN.

I have yet to see any conclusive evidence that the extreme electoral polarization that existed in 2008 and 2012 will not continue in 2016. Barack Obama himself is one of the most polarizing Presidents ever. It may be culture (his cosmopolitanism) more than race... arch-conservative Tim Scott could be elected to the US Senate from South Carolina, and Barack Obama couldn't make the state closer than 9% at any time. 

Due to the quirks of one pollster, we are going to see a huge number of polls from North Carolina. Quinnipiac and Marist poll a limited number of states. Few pollsters will give us any indication of what is going on in the Mountain and Deep South or the Great Plains (unless you call Iowa part of the Great Plains).

If you want to see what an election with little regional polarization looks like, then here it is:

http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1980.png

Sixteen states were decided by 5% or less; six were decided by 5% to 8%. Reagan defeated Carter by 9%.

Contrast this one:

http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe2008.png

It was much closer (less than 4% nationwide) than the election of 1980 -- but statewide elections were rarely close. Only six states were decided by 5% or less, and two others by 5% to 8%.

(An aside: Reagan in 1980 and Obama in 2008 won almost all the close statewide elections).


   

   
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 24, 2015, 04:04:27 pm
So we now know what an incumbent Democratic Senator  looks like if shaky.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 24, 2015, 12:10:38 pm
Quinnipiac, Colorado and Iowa (no Senator is up for re-election in Virginia in 2016:

4abc-15abc. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (CO) Cory Gardner, Michael Bennet / (IA) Joni Ernst, Chuck Grassley / (VA) Tim Kaine, Mark Warner - is handling (his/her) job as United States Senator?

                     CO................      IA..................    VA............
                     Gardner     Bennet      Ernst       Grassley    Kaine   Warner
 
Approve              36%         39%         42%         67%         53%     62%
Disapprove           26          28          26          21          28      23
DK/NA                39          33          32          13          19      15

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2157

The only question that I could have about  Grassley is about health (age).  Bennett is shaky.

High ratings for both incumbent Senators from VA bodes well for Democrats overall in Virginia.

Yes, I think that the Republicans have a better chance picking off Senator Bennett in Colorado than they have of protecting Senator Toomey.
 














37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 24, 2015, 12:01:45 pm
Missouri:

In the survey, conducted for Missouri Scout, a political newsletter, Blunt has a 39% favorability rating, while Kander comes in at 26%. But fully 54% of the likely voters have no opinion of Kander, meaning he has room to develop his image as he campaigns and becomes better known.

http://fox4kc.com/2015/02/20/blunt-beats-kander-in-early-political-poll/

These polls are of approval and not favorability. But 39% favorability is undeniably awful. I cannot translate that to approval.

Blunt looks vulnerable.

Do you think he is more vulnerable than Toomey? Tongue

1. Pennsylvania and Missouri are very different states. 

At 43% or so approval, Pat Toomey is very close to the ceiling for a right-wing Republican incumbent. In a high-turnout election Toomey will have a tough time getting re-elected. A competent challenger can defeat him.

Pennsylvania was about D+1 in the Presidential election in 2012. Missouri was about R+10 in 2012. 2008? Pennsylvania was about D+1 , and Missouri was R+4.

There's a huge difference between D+1 and R+7 in opportunities for candidates of the other two parties.   

If I saw 39% approval for Blunt, then the question would be whether the opposition could find someone else. 

2. Favorability and approval are not the same thing. Of course some questions confuse the two in context; one must watch for that. Favorability is like vs. dislike; approval is how well one likes the job that the pol is doing. Translating between the two is tricky. 

3. How big were the margins in the elections in which the two got elected or re-elected?

Blunt won 54-41 over a Democratic opponent in 2010, with 3% of the vote going to a Libertarian; Toomey won 51-49. A shift of 2% solely as the result of an increased electorate with nothing else happening defeats Toomey -- but not Blunt. The Democratic challenger to Blunt must campaign vigorously and effectively to counteract the rightward drift of Missouri.

See what I said about Arkansas, where Senator Boozman has a 40% approval rating.

Sure, it is possible to buck the partisan trend in a state, as I will soon show with Senator Grassley in Iowa.  But Chuck Grassley has been around seemingly forever and has been riding a reputation as a moderate for years.

4. Neither is likely to do something catastrophic to their campaigns -- like claim that a child by a rape is a blessing to the mother. We can forget that one. That is a wash.

5. Both have similar voting records except that Toomey voted for some gun-control bill. A right-wing voting record wins in a right-wing state. A right-wing voting record can and will be used against a right-wing pol in a Lean-D state.

6. THE BIG ONE -- the Koch brothers have committed $889 million to the 2016 campaign to maintain GOP majority in the House of Representatives and a Senate majority. In a close election that money with a sharp focus could save Toomey.
 



38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 23, 2015, 06:27:11 am
Kentucky and Colorado are both toss-ups with Hillary?  Uh, alright..

It's the CLINTON's.

It's the 90s again.

MO in general is trending GOP for at least the last 25 years, so Hillary is unlikely to even come close there. Unless she wins by a landslide nationally. These are not the 90s anymore.

Wink

Good find, but the first post was 2 years ago based on a poll that showed Clinton still strong in KY. Meanwhile, polls have come out that showed that Clinton has no chance anymore in KY, MO or WV and that it's more likely that she resembles Obama's maps in 2016 and not the 90s maps of Bill.

That's not even true. The most recent Kentucky polls still show Hillary competitive there.



Obviously common sense tells us that MO will be more competitive than KY. Clearly, one or both of these polls are incorrect.

People using this partisan Republican poll with a close to nonexistent track record to "prove" that Missouri is safe R would be like using Gravis to "prove" Kentucky is a toss up. People are accepting it as gospel merely because a) nobody else has polled the state, so we have nothing to confirm or deny it and b) it backs up their preconceived notion of "Obama 2012 = Democratic ceiling". But considering how focused this site is on polling, you'd think people would learn not to take a single poll (particularly when it isn't a longstanding nonpartisan poll) as gospel. Weren't you all bashing pbrower for doing that to "prove" Toomey was doomed?

Missouri is less rural than Kentucky -- Kentucky basically has Louisville as a liberal base and Missouri has both Kansas City and St. Louis. Missouri also has more blacks. Like Missouri, Kentucky has a Senate seat up for grabs as well as some electoral votes for President.

Missouri in Presidential elections beginning in 2000:

Bush 50.42 - Gore 47.08
Bush 53.30 -  Kerry 46.10
McCain 49.36 - Obama 49.24 - Nader 0.61 - Barr 0.39
Romney 53.64 - Obama 44.28

Obama did some campaigning in Missouri in 2008, but not in 2012. He had good cause to avoid campaigning in Missouri in 2012; a Democratic incumbent was fighting for her political life in Missouri, and he found indication that his appearances there would only help the Republican. He did not need Missouri. I predict that Hillary Clinton will not be as unpopular in Missouri in 2016, and if she feels secure enough about winning the Presidential election and can help Democrats get elected to the Senate, then she will aid Democrats in the Senate.

...As for Senate Pat Toomey being "doomed" when an approval rating showed him at 28% --  I found it easy to say that he was "doomed" when he had an approval rating of 28%. Such means that many of those who voted for him then thought of him as a mistake. I wasn't sure that 28% was accurate; that is in the area of approval ratings of former Governor Corbett. Maybe the 28% approval rating was really 35% or something. I had no cause to believe that  partisan Republicans would continue to vote for him, as he has done nothing catastrophically wrong. He has yet to abuse power in the Senate as did Rick Santorum and has not gotten ensnared in a scandal involving a sexual predator.

So do I think him a sure thing with a poll that shows him at 43% a short time later? Hardly. Take the state into account. It's Pennsylvania, not a state likely to support partisan hacks who go too far one way or the other in their re-election bids. Pat Toomey is extreme-right on economics, having been Chairman of an organization called Club for Growth, an anti-union, anti-environment, anti-public sector organization that believes that the key to economic growth is to give the economic elites of America free rein. Nothing indicates that he has changed from such positions.

He barely got elected in a wave election, and he gets re-elected should the GOP have a wave like that of 2010 or 2014. Otherwise he has his work cut out. If he has 45-42 leads over losers of the previous election, virtual unknowns, and non-politicians, then maybe he is close to his ceiling of votes.

I CAN adjust my assessment of a situation to new data.     
39  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Major City vs. Giant Suburb on: February 22, 2015, 04:43:17 pm
It's simple, what's the line between them?

There are a lot of very big suburbs, and a lot of major cities. Sometimes they are right next to each other, which also blurs the line. Is Ft. Worth a giant suburb of Dallas, or a major city in its own right? There's also Baltimore and DC, and of course Minneapolis and St. Paul.
 
Looking at America's largest cities, which is the last Major City (besides the capitol cities) and which is the first Giant Suburb?

Fort Worth is a large city in its own right.

1880    6,663       
1890    23,076       246.3%
1900    26,668       15.6%
1910    73,312       174.9%
1920    106,482       45.2%
1930    163,447       53.5%
1940    177,662       8.7%
1950    278,778       56.9%
1960    356,268       27.8%
1970    393,476       10.4%
1980    385,164       −2.1%
1990    447,619       16.2%
2000    534,697       19.5%
2010    741,206       38.6%
Est. 2013    792,727       7.0%

1850    1,073       
1860    698       −34.9%
1870    3,000       329.8%
1880    10,358       245.3%
1890    38,069       267.5%
1900    42,639       12.0%
1910    92,104       116.0%
1920    158,976       72.6%
1930    269,475       69.5%
1940    294,734       9.4%
1950    434,469       47.4%
1960    679,684       56.4%
1970    844,401       24.2%
1980    904,078       7.1%
1990    1,006,977       11.4%
2000    1,188,580       18.0%
2010    1,197,816       0.8%
Est. 2013    1,257,676       5.0%

It has never been bigger than Dallas, but it has its own suburbs -- and shares some with Dallas. Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Tampa and St. Petersburg, San Francisco and San Jose, and Baltimore and Washington do that, too.

A city between them (Arlington) is one of the largest suburbs in the United States. 
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rudy Giuliani: Obama doesn't love America on: February 22, 2015, 02:58:28 pm
The Neocon definition of "Loves America" is "Sees no faults with and doesn't want to change anything about America"

...and that America can do nothing really wrong except to reject neo-liberal economics, neo-con foreign policy, and resolute  acceptance of Protestant fundamentalism as the dominant religion.

We can err. We can err. We can err.

I have thus shown my 'contempt' for America by the criteria that Giuliani and Walker have. 
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: why the mass exodus of congressional dems in 1976? (paging smolty) on: February 22, 2015, 05:06:04 am
They were old and their time was up. That's what happens when seniority at the expense of all else gives opportunity.  One eventually can't cheat biological reality, most obviously the limit of the lifespan.   
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 21, 2015, 09:30:06 pm
Don't worry -- there WILL be more polls, and if this Remington poll is a partisan hack poll, some pollster will make it irrelevant.
43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rudy Giuliani: Obama doesn't love America on: February 21, 2015, 03:10:00 pm
Pretty obvious stuff. Obama loves countries like Denmark and would love the US to be more like them.

Most sane people would love the US to be more like Denmark.

And the average American would gain a lot more from that than through whether the President loves America or not.

Great. Let's have America be more like the country that Germany invaded in two months.

I've said it before, he's not the head of the U.N. He's the President of the United States. Where's his thoughts on American exceptionalism? Where's his Teddy Roosevelt, Truman, Reagan moments?

Hitler could have taken over Rhode Island in similar time if it were an independent republic. So what it it is small. Hitler took much longer to get mauled in the Soviet Union -- does anyone want to imitate the Soviet Union?

The United States is not as exceptional as it used to be. There was a time when American was the first country (and hence the only country) in which high-school education was the norm.  There was a time when America had the world's strongest industrial base because it hadn't been ravaged by the Luftwaffe, the Army Air Corps, or the Royal Air Force or looted by Soviet occupiers. That is past.  

Without objectivity people make bad decisions -- often catastrophically-bad decisions.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 21, 2015, 01:48:08 pm
Mexican-Americans (except in Texas) are going to take a long time to forgive Jeb's brother for the real estate hustle that hit Mexican-Americans hard. they were the ones most likely to buy a house with the shakiest qualifications, and they were the ones most likely to get burned  in the real estate crash. Texas? Texas' laws on underwriting loans for real estate had been reformed extensively in the 1980s, so there was no real estate loan based upon predatory lending in Texas to the extent that there was in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado. 
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 21, 2015, 01:30:04 pm



Yellow -- too close to call
Gray -- no cause to call

NE-02 is 'no cause to call'.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: February 21, 2015, 12:07:13 pm
Missouri:

Quote
In the survey, conducted for Missouri Scout, a political newsletter, Blunt has a 39% favorability rating, while Kander comes in at 26%. But fully 54% of the likely voters have no opinion of Kander, meaning he has room to develop his image as he campaigns and becomes better known.

http://fox4kc.com/2015/02/20/blunt-beats-kander-in-early-political-poll/

These polls are of approval and not favorability. But 39% favorability is undeniably awful. I cannot translate that to approval.

Blunt looks vulnerable.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Sen. Blunt (R) leads Kander (D) by a lot on: February 21, 2015, 12:03:50 pm
39% favorability is awful.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: February 21, 2015, 11:39:07 am
It seems as if the Romney states will remain in the GOP column in 2016 barring a blowout.

Basically, with the possible exceptions of Arizona and Georgia, the states that have not voted for Obama in 2008 are Safe R. That obviously will not be enough  to allow a Republican 'recovery' of the Presidency.  
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 21, 2015, 11:36:33 am
The 2014 elections demonstrate what was true in the Presidential race of 2012: the Republican Party has been very successful in cultivating white Southern Baptist voters, much as the Republicans were successful in cultivating Mormon voters around 1950.  Missouri used to be the bellwether state par excellence... but that is over.

A few years ago I saw a pattern: the Southern Baptist Church  is demographically strong up to roughly the Iowa-Missouri state line but weak to the north of the Iowa-Missouri state line. Barack Obama won Iowa decisively in 2008 and barely lost Missouri in 2008. Republicans would have won a Senate seat in Missouri in 2012 if their nominee hadn't made outrageous statements about a violent crime.   

This pollster suggests that Missouri will not be a GOP runaway as in 2012 under any Republican nominee. But if this holds, then Democrats can expect to win in the Mountain and Deep South only where there is a black majority. Missouri is now part of the Mountain South, and not the Midwest.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 21, 2015, 11:25:37 am
Who are these guys?

You weren't skeptical when the Marist Polls showed Hillary tied in South Carolina. Tongue Polls that early don't mean anything, no matter who leads. Although it gives us an indication of the competitiveness of Missouri.

Missouri is not likely to be a 10% win for the Republican nominee in 2016. It will be competitive if Hillary Clinton does some campaigning there, especially as there will be a hot US Senate race.

Marist has been around for some time, and it polls for NBC News, which I expect to have some quality control.

Polls this early can mean something: that some alleged candidates are just not up to the level of political talent necessary for winning in the general election. I don't show Marco Rubio, and I don't show Joe Biden. Joe Biden had had plenty of opportunities to run for President before 2008 and the only way in which he ever becomes President is some personal tragedy. If Joe Biden wasn't ready for the President when he was in his 50s or 60s he isn't now. 
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