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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: September 20, 2016, 02:08:26 pm
Florida, Monmouth:

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Out of the margin of error, and Donald Trump cannot win without Florida. This pollster showed Trump up 8 in Iowa last week, so such suggests a real comeback.

Elon, North Carolina. PPP will give us a poll in a couple of days, and I trust PPP more than anyone else on North Carolina. The PPP poll will supplant this one. Trump cannot be anywhere close to losing North Carolina to have a real chance of winning.  

https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/092016.html

Trump 44
Clinton 43
Johnson 6

North Dakota, DFM Research:

43% Donald Trump (R)
32% Hillary Clinton (D)
8% Gary Johnson (L)
1% Jill Stein (G)

https://de.scribd.com/document/324685567/ND-Pres-DFM-Research-Sept-2016
https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/poll-trump-leads-clinton-north-dakota-neither-50-percent/

Oklahoma, Sooner Poll.

51% Trump
36% Clinton
  6% Johnson

The poll of 515 Oklahoma likely voters was conducted between September 13-15. It carries a margin of error of 4.32 percent. The poll's results were stratified to represent the state's likely voter population.

http://newsok.com/clinton-gains-some-ground-on-trump-in-oklahoma-poll-shows/article/5518562

Oklahoma hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964, and that streak will hold this year. Anyone who believes  otherwise is a fool. This is still rather weak for a Republican in Oklahoma.

Pennsylvania, Muhlenberg College.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 5%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 12-16.

Well out of the margin of error. Pennsylvania has to be close for Donald Trump to have a reasonable chance of winning. An 8% lead is solid.


Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 50% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.





27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: University of Mary Washington, Clinton +3 on: September 20, 2016, 10:59:06 am
Even at a bad point in Hillary Clinton's polling, Virginia still suggests a narrow lead for her.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: September 20, 2016, 09:31:17 am
We may be seeing some reduction of the extreme polarization between the states that appeared when Barack Obama was President. This may be Donald Trump, who (in view of some of his rash statements) should offend anyone with a three-digit IQ.



Yes, there are white people with above-average intelligence in some states in which Barack Obama absolutely got crushed in 2008 and 2012. But Hillary Clinton may be getting weakened support from blue-collar workers in the North. Trend or reversion?
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9 on: September 20, 2016, 09:24:59 am
it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

Illinois also doesn't have another major city on the other side of the state that's as Democratic as Pittsburgh.

Outside Chicagoland, Illinois is about as Republican as Indiana. 

Not quite, it's more like Missouri. Clinton won it by comfortable margins in 1992 and 1996.

Missouri has Kansas City and St. Louis and is otherwise very rustic. Outside of Chicagoland, Illinois' big cities (such as they are) do not sum up to Indianapolis.

Bill Clinton won West Virginia in 1992 and 1996; it is not the same state in its politics now. Southern Missouri even looks much like West Virginia.   
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Nevada - KNTV/Rasmussen: Trump + 3 (4-way) on: September 20, 2016, 09:15:10 am
Rasmussen does state polls?

Scott Rasmussen used to. He sold out to an entity that still uses his name.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: September 20, 2016, 09:05:06 am
Geez, Lungazi really taking it's toll (yes, I said it).
And out of curiosity, this may be a stupid question, but does anyone know who Johnson and Stein are taking votes from?

Considering what Donald Trump has said about arresting people who disagree with him (just think of it -- I disagree with Donald Trump on about every position and his basic character, I am staunchly anti-drug except on marijuana; if I were to go to jail I might have to share a cell with a doper, and that would be extremely unpleasant for both the doper and me)...

Anyone who can support Donald Trump after implications that he would gut the First Amendment to get his political way is in the literal 'basket of deplorables'.

You believe in the Bill of Rights and the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the Constitution as a minimal standard of governmental ethics or you are not a patriotic American. It is that simple. My loyalty is to the Constitution and not to the economic elites of his country.

32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: September 20, 2016, 08:26:05 am
Back to this polling thread. Leads that I saw for Donald Trump made me physically ill. Yes, I have a bias -- against someone who advocates political violence, who promotes breaking up families in the name of mass deportation, who vilifies whole ethnic and religious  groups. I have enough personal problems as it is, and hearing someone attack the core decencies of the American experiment in democracy could push me over the edge.

But if I am to show a comeback by Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump going into the tank, I must show Trump charging, if only for a week. And by charging I do not mean putting 'surf 'n' turf on a charge card.

Iowa, Monmouth:

45% Trump (R)
37% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_091516/

Nevada, Monmouth:


44% Trump (R) (+3)
42% Clinton (D) (-3)
8% Johnson (L) (+3)


http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_091416/


Michigan, EPIC/MRI
 



A bunch of polls from Emerson College -- the first batch stank when they first came out, so I am not using this batch.

Minnesota, Mason-Dixon  

44% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)
  6% Johnson (L)
  2% Stein (G)

Ohio  -- three polls (Monmouth, CNN, and Selzer for Bloomberg -- Trump up 4.67 on average.







Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: people who say "freedom of speech!" are "foolish people" on: September 20, 2016, 08:16:02 am
Given a choice between freedom of speech and the right to bear arms, I will take freedom of speech. 
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-Monmouth: Trump +3 on: September 19, 2016, 06:32:19 pm
The largest possibilities of absolute gains for Hillary Clinton are in those states in which well-educated white voters went heavily for Mitt Romney in 2012.  The swing of educated voters from R to D is as  complete as it can be in many northern and western states. But look closely at Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.

Florida, which went barely for Obama in 2008 and 2012 may be even more troublesome for where it is in its nearly-even split in partisanship. . 
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MN-Mason Dixon/Star Tribune: Hillary+6 on: September 19, 2016, 09:53:23 am
Minnesota won't be that close, but even so, Democrats have a very high floor in the state. Even though I don't think the margin will be anywhere near states like California or Maryland, I have confidence that MN is Safe D.

Minnesota is one of the least elastic states in the Union. It's about 49R in an R blowout election (weakest win for Nixon in 1972 and only state that Reagan lost in 1984), and not all that remarkable for Obama in 2008 when he was blowing out about every state that leaned D for Gore or Kerry. Not that I see the Democrats winning anything close to a 49-state blowout for a long time, I could imagine it going 59D when the Democrats win 62-36.

Safer D than the margin suggest -- that's Minnesota for you. 
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Upshot/Siena Voter File FL Poll Clinton +1 on: September 19, 2016, 07:54:21 am
Florida too close to call... that's how 2012 went.  Florida was the difference between 303 and 332 electoral votes that year.  Florida inconclusive going into the last weeks of the Presidential election? I'm accustomed to that.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9 on: September 19, 2016, 06:49:53 am
it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

Illinois also doesn't have another major city on the other side of the state that's as Democratic as Pittsburgh.

Outside Chicagoland, Illinois is about as Republican as Indiana. 
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8 on: September 16, 2016, 10:29:04 pm
But I;m not counting on Iowa continuing as likely D indefinitely. I see signs that Iowa is beginning to look politically more like another state whose name begins with I and ends in an A. Iowa voted in Joni Ernst.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: September 16, 2016, 09:28:25 pm
Play up Kaine.

The VP has as his greatest Constitutional responsibility being ready in the event of the Unthinkable. His second responsibility is as President of the Senate. Third? He could be a sort of Minister without Portfolio, much as Dick Cheney was (well, let's hope not as devious as Dick Cheney).

Also take some swipes at Mike Pence for his reactionary agenda... anti-feminist and anti-worker, at the least.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 15, 2016, 08:45:35 am
I fail to see what Donald Trump has to offer. Were I thirty years younger I would be preparing to emigrate. A Trump Presidency will be the worst four years of American history since the Civil War. Heck, at least the Depression began with peace and honest government under Hoover, and people saw steady improvements in their lives before Pearl Harbor. The Gilded Age was at the least a time of unbridled opportunity.

41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX - Texas Lyceum: Trump +7 /+1(4way LV/RV) Clinton + 4 (2way RV) on: September 15, 2016, 08:39:44 am
So this is an advocacy group. I never knew that.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 14, 2016, 01:33:03 pm
Selzer has been a very good pollster.  There was one poll suggesting that Clinton would be up 7. Do 12-point swings happen that fast?

One or the other poll is an outlier, if not both. The average between the two polls still has Hillary Clinton up on3.

Donald Trump does resonate with blue-collar white people, and those people have not been doing well in Ohio.  In theory, Democrats can pay a high price for that in Ohio and elsewhere.  
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-Maine People's Resource Center: Clinton +10/+11 on: September 14, 2016, 01:16:31 pm
Too old; not using.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A deplorable at a Trump event in Asheville, NC attacks a protester on: September 14, 2016, 01:15:32 pm
The only deplorable people are those that instigate by protesting at rallies. Nobody wants them there, and they are doing no good and deserve to be brutally attacked. This man was fighting the good fight.

Protest of the government is very much a part of the American way of life.

How would you like to have had the Tea Party types roughed up in 2010?
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump now the favorite? on: September 14, 2016, 12:01:18 pm
Donald Trump is increasingly being shown as a liar, someone who says whatever is convenient in the moment. His business acumen is suspect; the fellow is simply good at squeezing a captive market (people who must live in New York City because they could not do what they do elsewhere) by exploiting a permanent scarcity. Exploiting a permanent scarcity? That's easier than wildcatting for oil, developing software, or designing a better model of automobile.

Donald Trump is not a capitalist; he is simply a rentier. 
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's path to 270 on: September 14, 2016, 11:56:17 am
We still see a pattern much as in 2008 and 2012: if the election is not set, then the Republican nominee must win four states that are close, states that are different enough and scattered enough that no appeal can be made to fit them all unless fundamentally changing the nature of the election very late in the election.

Donald Trump has not won over any significant Democratic constituency, but he offends some traditionally-Republican ones.  
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Home-stretch polling on: September 14, 2016, 01:15:48 am
Kansas, SUSA:

48% Trump (R)
36% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

No binary data.


Maine, SUSA:


Clinton - 42%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 5%

The poll of 779 likely voters statewide was conducted via automated phone calls and web surveys from Sept. 4 through 10. It had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25







Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-Starboard Communications (R): Trump +13 on: September 13, 2016, 04:01:04 pm
Not using. Bias shown in the name.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-PPP: Clinton +6/+8 on: September 13, 2016, 04:00:22 pm
Trump undoing an 8% deficit in Virginia? Not this late.Two months ago he might have had a chance. Barring some discrediting calamity by the Democrats, Virginia seems out of the question.

There will be easier states for him to pick up. The door has shut on him in Virginia.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-Starboard Communications (R): Trump +13 on: September 13, 2016, 01:43:05 pm
"Starboard" in nautical terms means"right". Just so we know.
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