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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:Secession on: April 23, 2004, 01:06:50 am
Secede definitely

And if I was a Northern politician i would have opposed crushing the Confederacy too.  We'd wait a generation and then take the Mississippi River back. The leave them alone, forever and ever.
2  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Will there be a recount? on: April 23, 2004, 12:57:36 am
Certainly there will be recounts ...

Bush will demand it, win or lose.

Why?
If he loses, he'll have to use some of his gold to make some rules so he wins.

If he wins, it won't be enough to fulfill his ego. So he'll request recounts in  close Kerry states (Penn? NM? Wisc? who knows)  so he can snag some extra EVs and inflate his ego. So he can have a "mandate from heaven", to make war on whatever country that he feels like.
3  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Nader chipping away at Kerry's youth vote on: April 23, 2004, 12:49:01 am
I am so tired of the Nader bashing.......(not that you guys are, just in general).  There isnt a whole lot Kerry and Co. can do about it now, so just do the best you can, you know.  Ik Kerry is so great , he will get the votes he needs.  If he is not appealing, he wont.  

When the Libertarian candidate or the Constitutional Party candidate starts getting some press (eventually the media will get tired of Ralph over the summer).  I'll love all the vitriol coming from your side.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:Best "Political Quiz" site? on: April 09, 2004, 09:21:58 pm
big surprise...not

90/40

Exactly the same for me ...
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:What would be your dream ticket? on: April 09, 2004, 12:45:15 am
My dream ticket has alredy won twice

Clinton/Gore

although a

Gore/Clinton   ticket, would suit me too

They should have alternated

a TR/Kennedy ticket probably is better
6  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:FOX NEWS POLL : Kerry +1 on: April 09, 2004, 12:11:47 am
This is a VERY credible poll.  They hit the election smack on in 2000.  Frankly, given when it was taken (Tues & Wed) I'm absolutely shocked Bush wasn't behind 4 or 5.

I don't understand why you Republicans are always saying "with all the Bad news Bush should be behind 4 or 5, blah blah blah ... it shows how strong he is and how weak Dems are blah blah blah ... "

Don't you get that incumbents are incredibly hard to beat?

If it wasn't for Perot in '92 Bush Sr. would have only lossed by 3 or 4 points despite having approval ratings in the thirties.

If it wasn't for Anderson in '80 Carter would have only lossed by 6ish (even though Anderson was a Republican he definitely hurt Carter more, the Rs were unified around the glorious Reagan, and Carter looked bad for not wanting to debate Anderson ...)

Ford despite the low approval still only lost by a few points.

Hoover was stomped because of the 20+% unemployment.

Taft very well could have won if not for TR.
Cleveland-Harrison round two was close. And Harrison may very well have won if not for the third party candidates
Cleveland-Harrison round one, well Cleveland lost but won the popular vote.

In summary with the exception of Hoover, incumbents don't get beat hard unless there is a strong third party.

So things will have to go very badly for weeks on end for Kerry to start leading big in polls that are not prone to wild swings, and fox is not prone to wild swings.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re:Indiana 2004: Daniels vs. Kernan on: April 08, 2004, 09:50:30 pm
Kernan is the Democratic Incumbent.

When Governor O'Bannon (Evan Bayh's lt. Governor, and successor) was stricken by a stroke and passed away in Chicago, the Lt. Governor Kernan became Governor last fall.

Kernan had said that he was going to retire from politics, and maybe buy part of a minor league baseball team. However, becoming the Governor obviously gave him reason to run. While he is no Bayh or O'Bannon, he should be formidable if the Indiana economy gains steam this summer.  

Kernan was the mayor of South Bend (you may know of it for Notre Dame being nearby).

Daniels I believe worked for Mr. Bush for budget somethin or other.  When he left that post , it was obvious to all that he was planning to run for Governor.
8  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Compare: Kerry vs Bush Surge on: April 07, 2004, 09:06:55 pm
Angus,

Asians are not Republicans. Nor are they trending Republican. Bush did worse then Bob Dole did among Asians. Considering that the consensus is that Bush will do much worse in the Muslim community, and his apparent hostility to the outside world, I think Bush will do even worse among Asians.

Secondly, democrats aren't going to ignore Hispanics like they did last time. Hell, Bill Richardson was/is a top tier choice for Veep. Despite Bush's efforts to woo Hispanics the new millions will still break Dem (but by possibly thinner margins).

The election of Arnold has helped democrats in the state. Gives them someone to demonize and fundraise and get all riled up about. Not to mention there is no Gray Davis making Dems look bad.


Bush won't break 5 million votes in California.  Bush won't get within a million of Kerry.


hello kghadial,
always good to read your posts.  a couple of points:  I did not mean to suggest or have you infer that asians are trending republican.  I simply stated the fact that they are among the most economically conservative and socially conservative demographics out there.  (not that there are no asian republicans, as two very well informed asian republicans filled the "asians" thread with very interesting posts, I'm not sure if you were here yet.)

The hispanic paragraph was total speculation I admit.  But the two most populous states in the union are 1/3 hispanic each.  That amounts to eleven million in this state and about 7.5 million in texas.  This demographic voted about twice as much to re-elect gov bush in 98 as compared to 94, and many speculate that nationwide he'll get more support this time than in 2000.  I think it's a reasonable assumption.  But you're right, Democrats can read and will attempt to counteract this.  Like Asians, they tend to have much lower VAP voters, and like asians, those that do vote split about 65-70% or maybe a little less to the Dems.

You are exactly right about Arnold.  Most of the right wing of the republican party wanted Davis to stay in and try to defeat him in 2006, and very little of the right wing of this party voted for Arnold (I think McClintock got over 10%, meaning some must have sold out to pragmatism).  My guy came in around 14th of 162 in that special election, by the way.  He was a far left republican who probably has more in common with the Libertarians, but who is a proud registered Republican who claims to support Bush.  

Nevertheless, I haven't changed my original map since I posted it:  

Bush 283    
Generic Democrat 255

Have a nice day.  Smiley

Always good reading your posts angus,
I didn't mean that there are NO asian republicans, but   that asians relative conservatism would have little affect on california's politics even if they had greater numbers

About Bush and Hispanics ...
The Texas economy during Bush's first Term was very good. Groups that tend to have high unemployment, like Hispanics, are predisposed to voting with their pocketbook so Bush got their vote in his reelection bid. Considering this, the fact that the unemployment rate is about 2% higher (considering the discouraged as well) than 3.5 years ago , and that Hispanics often are "last hired, first fired" it seems logical to me that their pained pocketbooks might make them less predisposed to be amused by bush
9  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush wins popular vote, loses EC on: April 07, 2004, 08:38:27 pm
The electoral votes don't quite look right on that map.  California has 55 I think, and Texas 34, and Florida 27.

Oops.  I used the 2000 map as my basis for that one.  But it still adds up to a Kerry win.

Actually Gore states plus NH and WV is a 269-269 tie ...

And that is what you show ...
10  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 User Predictions - Discussion on: April 07, 2004, 08:35:15 pm
If I was doing a North vs. South map, I would put what he had but give Hawaii and Nevada to the Blue, and give Colorado to the Red ...

Although i guess that this proves that power in this country is trending southward. He had to put Nevada and Hawaii, states that would be considered southern, in the North to balance it out ...
11  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Big Ten Country on: April 07, 2004, 02:16:17 pm
As a Big Ten student, I feel as if I ought to say something ...

If Kerry picks Bayh Indiana will be close.

However, Kerry will do substantially better than Gore here.  Gore pissed off what used to be the only democrat leaning group in Indiana, those in the south. Yet he still did decent for a Democrat here. The former conservative bastions are movings towards the center.

As for the rest of the Big Ten, I think Bush will have trouble winning any of these states other than Indiana.
12  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Compare: Kerry vs Bush Surge on: April 06, 2004, 12:59:09 am
By the way:

Bush surge:



 Bush 370 to 168


Kerry surge, with Brokaw as running mate and Roy Moore entering the race (and surging too):



Kerry 427
Bush 97
Moore 14
13  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Compare: Kerry vs Bush Surge on: April 06, 2004, 12:48:26 am
Angus,

Asians are not Republicans. Nor are they trending Republican. Bush did worse then Bob Dole did among Asians. Considering that the consensus is that Bush will do much worse in the Muslim community, and his apparent hostility to the outside world, I think Bush will do even worse among Asians.

Secondly, democrats aren't going to ignore Hispanics like they did last time. Hell, Bill Richardson was/is a top tier choice for Veep. Despite Bush's efforts to woo Hispanics the new millions will still break Dem (but by possibly thinner margins).

The election of Arnold has helped democrats in the state. Gives them someone to demonize and fundraise and get all riled up about. Not to mention there is no Gray Davis making Dems look bad.


Bush won't break 5 million votes in California.  Bush won't get within a million of Kerry.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:No Perot on: April 02, 2004, 07:43:17 pm
I said in some other thread worst case scenario for Clinton in '92 without Perot is around 276 EVs.
15  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:who is going to win? on: April 02, 2004, 07:38:12 pm
Without Perot every single Gore state would have still gone to Clinton except for New Jersey  and Wisconsin (maybe), Iowa (maybe) . but he would have also won Arkansas, WV, Tenn, Missouri and Lousiana. Worst case scenario for Clinton is 276 EVs in '92 .
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:What if Gore Won? on: April 02, 2004, 05:30:59 pm
If Gore won (lets say by about 5000 votes in florida).

He would have established a congressional commision to look into possible illegal activities during the 2000 election.  In doing so they find irregularities in the "scrubbed" voter lists in Florida and eventually this leads to the jailing of Harris. When the commision reveals that their was widespread voter fraud that all connects back to Karl Rove, he is discredited and vows to completely leave politics for the Business World.

As his popularity decreases as the economy fizzles and his "jihad" against Republican voter fraud becomes silly, he fights for modest tax relief that largely goes to the middle class. As the Rs fight him to give for to the rich, he gains back a popularity ranking over fifty.

Over summer 2001, as Gore continues to notice Al Queda he sends numerous bombing runs in the country and increases aid to the Northern Alliance. Since Al Queda is taken far more seriously the FBI follows its leads and breaks up one of the four "cells" of plane crashing terrorists.

On September 11th since one of the cells in broken up, only three planes commit those attrocities.  Gore speak to the nation and explains that Al Queda is the perpertrator and that the FBI had succesfully foiled one-fourth of the plot. Gore's popularity reaches that lofy 90% like Bush's did. As the nation mourns he says that the main reason they hate us is our presence in their holy land, and our presence is caused by our need to protect our oil supply.  He calls on congress to sharply increase minimum mpg standards, and calls for a gas tax increase to pay for the war on terror.  As He goes into Afghanistan with widespread world support, he vows that they will not stop till they find osama.  

As Congress tries to stop VP Lieberman's push for a Department of Homeland Security 5 senators: Chafee, Snowe, Specter, Jeffords, and McCain all become independents to help Lieberman do so.

In the 2002 elections the Dems get a 53 seats in the senate, plus their five "independents", and control of the House. Gore's popularity stays up near 75% . An interesting outcome of the election is that half a dozen anti-war conservatives get elected to the house.

Osama is caught in late summer 2003. Gore declares "mission accomplished" .  Bush who had said that he would run again, decides to drop out of the race at this time, stating that even he thinks that president Gore is leading nobly and well, although he wishes Gore would attack Iraq.

The economy starts coming back on the rise after treading water for the first 3 years of the Gore presidency and the chorus of "me too" republican candidates is defening. Nominating Rudy Guilani the Republicans have Roy Moore thrown in their face as the Constitution party candidate.

End Result:
Gore:   50.1% of vote       413 EV
Rudy:   37% of vote       108 EV
Moore: 12% of vote       17 EV  ('bama, utah, wyoming)
Nader: minimal write in votes
17  Questions and Answers / Polling / Re:What are your favorite poll/prediction websites? on: April 02, 2004, 12:15:27 am
Good list. Just punching it back up near the top for some of the newer newbies.
18  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:who is going to win? on: April 02, 2004, 12:08:42 am
If I interpret what Vorlon has said about Gallup, this is rather meaningless.

The way Gallup does turnout predictions is very based on 'excitement'. The 59% of the polled that seem most likely to vote are the poll answers that are counted.  During the Dem primaries Republicans were obviously less excited and far more demoralized then the democrats. Thus the huge Kerry lead in Gallup. Now this Gallup with excited Republicans, since the Bush slander machine has turned on, and demoralized Democrats since our candidate was on vacation and not slamming Bush anymore.

Considering a four point lead in this light leads me to see it that the country is currently still split evenly. We will see dem excitement spikes in the Gallup Kerry picks a VP, during the Democratic Convention. For the republicans during the Olympics (since dems like foreigners more we are more likely to be absorbed for two weeks by it), and during their convention.  I really wouldn't read too much into gallup's polls until late September.

Considering that undecideds go to the challenger, and that Kerry finishes strong I say that Kerry will win by enough that we won't need a recount.
19  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:April 1 - Rasmussen - Bush + 4.3%, +0.5%, +0.1% on: April 01, 2004, 11:55:01 pm
Vorlon,

Perhaps you should not make a new thread for every day's Rasmussen.

It does happen every day.

Perhaps you should just start one thread for Rasmussed every week?

Just a suggestion.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re:State of the Senate right now on: April 01, 2004, 02:34:35 am
Of course we Dems would like Specter to be the chair. We would much prefer Leahy though.

Kick out Specter and there is a decent chance that the senate goes Democratic.  Leave him be and its hard to imagine that the dems do better than hold even.

Pick your poison. Who would you prefer as judiciary chair? Specter? or Leahy?

This is a race we Dems can't lose.  Specter, who we like. Or we get a liberal Dem senator.
21  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:The Cartoon Thread on: March 31, 2004, 02:55:28 am
22  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Tennessee on: March 31, 2004, 02:40:31 am
It has less to do with water and more to do with race.  The areas in the delta region have much higher concentrations of African-Americans than counties further away from the delta.

Arkansas will not go for Kerry unless there is a significant lead for him nationally.

Well those African-Americans wouldn't have been around there if not for the river, and thus the river is the reason.  Not to mention Gore did well in river areas in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minn. Up there the african-american argument doesn't hold.

Didn't you notice that I was being sarcastic i did say "what about the Great Salt Lake" .   What is it with you Republicans and not getting sarcasm, I even put a winky smiley face.

I didn't say arkansas would go for Kerry, I just said that Arkansas will be easier to win than Missouri.
23  General Politics / Political Debate / Re:National Sales Tax?? on: March 31, 2004, 02:35:04 am
The current tax system is unconstitutional. Plain and simple. IMHO you would not need a 20% tax to pay for everything. If you kept corporate income tax, which is constitutional, all that money you are normally taxed would  be back in your pocket and if you had a national sales tax that money you are getting back would be more then enough to pay a small 5-6% tax.

How much government spending would you slash???

If we say all personal consumption would end up sales taxed, that is 7.5 trillion (roughly) in a year, then add the roughly .85 trill of business investment in equipment in software to the taxed pile . That means we have   8.3 trillion that can be taxed of spending that would be subject to sales tax (this is very rough, and the amount is much less) , a 10% tax would replace the roulghly .83 trillion of personal income tax collections expected this year.  

Considering that with only  830 bill of personal income tax reciepts we are currently in the hole by half a tril a year.  

Unless we slash the hell out of spending, on the order of a trillion a year, a national sales tax would have to be in the double digits. 10% is very likely to not be anywhere close. Closer to 14% at the minimum once you work out all the thing that wouldn't be subject to it and the like, considering that i greatly simplified the calculations.  

Then 14% + 6% that most states have, would be the 20% that i had predicted earlier.

Probably even a greater tax since such a high tax would greatly discourage the poor from spending, and greatly encourage the rich to spend abroad.
24  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Tennessee on: March 31, 2004, 02:06:02 am
Its the river that makes Arkansas a little less conservative. If you look Gore dominated counties and C. Districts next to the Mississippi.  That's why Missouri and Lousiana are also a little less conservative. Don't ask me about Mississippi though Smiley  Clinton won every single Mississippi river state both times except of course for mississippi of course. That is how the modern democratic party can win elections: a coalition of the east cost, west coast, and the river.

I guess liberals like water .... hahahaha, wait a second ... what about the Great Salt Lake Wink

I'd say Arkansas is an easier win for Kerry than Missouri. Missouri has far more 'country' away from the river than Ark.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:JFK's membership reinstated on: March 30, 2004, 10:58:58 pm
JFK has to be in the party.

It will soon be the the most common initials for democratic presidents, in the real world of course
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