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July 03, 2015, 07:22:06 am
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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Most pointless candidate in major party primaries on: Today at 06:18:07 am
2016:

Dems - Chafee. Why why why? We have the Blue Dog in Webb, we have the liberalish Governor in O'Malley, we have the establishment favorite in Hillary and we have the True Leftist favorite in Sanders. What purpose does a failed one-term Governor of a small state who used to be a Senator for the other party serve?

GOP - Jindal. He is young, a Governor, non-white and Religious Right...but there are other candidates who fit one or more of those criteria. Fiorina is a close second but she can at least claim to be the token female.

2012:

GOP - Pawlenty...no actually Johnson. Gary, mate, there is already a libertarian type in the race who is much more well known (and, dare I say, intelligent) than you. Plus you ramble on too much about weed. But at least you discovered your natural home in the Libertarian Party. I could just about see Pawlenty's purpose as an establishment-type-but-more-conservative-than-Romney; he may have even been successful had he had a grain of charisma.

2008:

Dems - Dodd. The veteran Senator role (and only in the race for VP or major cabinet position) was already being played by Joe, and he had infinitely more personality.

GOP - Hunter. Leave it to Tom Tancredo to be the crazy Congressman, dude. He was better at it. Fred Thompson is second.

2004:

Dems - Carol Moseley Braun. Simple as that.

2000:

Dems - Well, neither. Gore was the incumbent VP and Bradley was his leftier challenger.

GOP - Hatch. McCain was the aging saneish incumbent Senator. No room for you.

1996:

GOP - Lugar, I suppose. Alexander was the candidate of the party's left and Gramm was the incumbent not-Bob-Dole Senator.

1992:

Dems - Let's see. Clinton was the charismatic Southern moderate Governor, Brown was the slightly mad insurgent, Harkin was the liberal Senator liked by the establishment (a la John Kerry) and Kerrey was the Vietnam vet. That leavez Tsongas.

GOP - Neither, of course. Should point out that I'm only considering candidates who I feel are worth considering. Hence no Randall Terrys or David Dukes or Harold Stassens (post 1950s).

1988:

Dems - The other half of Art Garfunkel, even if he was a character.

GOP - Probably Dole, surprisingly. Had Bush declined then it would have been Laxalt.

1984:

Dems - I can see the purpose of Mondale (establishment liberal), Hart (yuppies' choice), Jackson (radical black preacher) and Glenn (American Hero)...and perhaps Askew (Southern Governor) and even McGovern (who by this point would have been the token crazy old leftist, or least comes across that way - in a similar vein to the likes of Sanders and Gravel). Hollings and Cranston? Not so much. I guess Hollings could have been the token Blue Dog though...so Cranston (a Senator later found to be a tad corrupt) gets this prize.

1980: (last one for now)

Dems - Cliff Finch. Who the hell even was that? Though this was also by far the most pointless of Moonbeam's three campaigns.

GOP - Reagan is Conservative Icon, Bush is the establishment's man, Anderson the Rockefeller Republican, Crane is the conservative Congressman, Connally is the southern (former) Governor. That leaves Baker and Dole - the two sane Senators. Baker was probably always better placed then to play that role despite Dole being on the ticket in 1976.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2015 on: July 02, 2015, 05:20:06 pm
Rubio is also near the center and is relatively inoffensive and could attract moderate voters as well as Hispanics.

Literary no one was saying that in 2010.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / UK MPs - 2015 Parliament on: July 02, 2015, 02:33:38 pm
This is something I sort of started doing five years ago (someone else first did it a few years prior to that) but abandoned it for whatever reason. Basically this will go through the MPs alphabetically, one per day. That's all.........actually no. That would be as boring as feck. What I would encourage is other posters providing info and comments on each (if they can...given the high number of SNP nonentities...). I will also do so (again, where I can).
 

First up is....

Diane Abbott (Labour - Hackney North and Stoke Newington)

A well-known name to kick this off, thankfully. First elected in 1987 (along with Bernie Grant and Paul Boetang - also left-wing black Londoners) it is fair to say that she enjoys the media spotlight, having appeared regularly on the This Week sofa since 2003 (though less frequently since 2010) alongside Michael Portillo. Occasionally her tendency to express her views bluntly has backfired on both her and the party. Had a minor role in the Shadow Cabinet during the previous Parliament after contesting the leadership in 2010. One of the few remaining Campaign Group MPs. Currently seeking the Labour candidacy for Mayor of London.
4  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Improvements and additions you would like to see on President Forever/Infinity 2016 on: July 02, 2015, 12:38:04 pm
- Better election night. Bringing back the 2008-style one would be good enough for me, with states actually being projected and the returns coming in at a better pace. Also perhaps add election night coverage for the primaries.

- Voter demographics and being able to target them. Exit polling could be added too.

- More detailed debates; being able to choose whether to respond to a question forcefully/jokingly/calmly etc.

- Multiple polling organizations. I assume the poll numbers are intended to be an RCP-style average but seeing more than one pollster would be fun.

- Approval ratings (for incumbent Presidents) and favorables.

- Being able to actually serve as President. This is probably too far-fetched and would require a re-marketing of the game.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rank the GOP candidates from least conservative to most conservative on: July 02, 2015, 07:11:13 am
Most conservative are probably Kasich or Bush. The likes of Cruz and Santorum are reactionaries, Paul is a Whig and Graham is a neocon.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Are You in Favor of Polygamous Marriage? on: July 02, 2015, 03:57:52 am
No, but it should be legal.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump top tier/front-runner? on: July 01, 2015, 06:30:37 pm
Don't underestimate him.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The so-called "Demise" of the Republican Party is way overblown on: July 01, 2015, 06:29:14 pm
Neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party can die since they are machines rather than parties.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2015 on: July 01, 2015, 03:58:18 pm
Bush will probably get it but Walker still has a good chance due to strongish personal ratings with GOP voters and there is always a chance that an outright nutter will finally get it or that Rubio's good looks propel him to the nod.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does a candidates attractiveness matter? on: June 30, 2015, 07:49:32 pm
1960 - Kennedy won; he was more attractive
1964 - Neither were especially attractive, but LBJ had bear-like qualities.
1968 - Nixon was more attractive than Humphrey though less than Wallace (btw, could Lester Maddox have swept the South?)
1972 - Neither had an advantage
1976 - Obviously the grinning Southern Christian was handsomer
1980 - The actor won
1984 - Ditto
1988 - Ugh, both ugly
1992 - Bubba won
1996 - Ditto
2000 - Both were relatively handsome; the difference in handsomeness was as little as the vote difference in Florida, but I'd say Bush (geniunely) edged it here.
2004 - Bush had the prettier face; Kerry was attractive until one glanced at his face
2008 - McCain was about 40 years past it in this respect.
2012 - Really depends on one's taste.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In U.S., Socialist Presidential Candidates Least Appealing on: June 29, 2015, 10:50:59 am
47% is significantly higher than the % knowing what socialism is, methinks.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie launches campaign website; official announcedment expected on Tuesday on: June 28, 2015, 05:22:53 am
The only reason why his chances were better in 2012 is that it was pre-Bridgegate. He would have still likely lost to Obama.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The polls getting it wrong - post notable examples on: June 28, 2015, 04:57:13 am
Green parties tend to be overstated in polls in every country in which there is one.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next Australian Federal Election - 2015/2016 on: June 28, 2015, 12:33:23 am
Which was odd as Rudd did it to Beazley, Peacock did it to Howard, Keating did it to Hawke, Abbott did it to Turnbull etc.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The polls getting it wrong - post notable examples on: June 28, 2015, 12:29:01 am
What I wrote in the other thread
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=212502.0

"It is a worldwide phenomenum. Polls made in the election eve and even the exit polls underestimate the vote for the right. Sometimes, these errors are bigger than the margin of the error of the poll. We can see many examples

UK
Conservative victories in 1970 and 1992 were unexpected. Conservative majority in 2015 was unexpected.

USA
Reagan 10 point margin in 1980 was unexpected. Polls in the eve were showing 3 point margin.
Clinton margins in 1992 and 1996 were smaller than it was expected in the eve.
Polls in the first day of November were showing Bush and Kerry tied. Bush had a 2.5 point margin.
Some polls in the week of the 2008 election were showing 10 point margin for Obama.

Israel
Polls were predicting Netanyahu defeat in 2015

Germany
No poll predicted 41.5% for the CDU/CSU in 2013. The sum of the vote for CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD was bigger than it was expected. The pure right wing coalition failed only because of the rule of 5%.
SPD had 23% in 2009. During most of the days of the campaign, polls were predicting this percentage for the SPD. But in the last week, polls predicted a SPD surge that didn't happen. In the last week, many expected that the great coalition would remain in the power. But the CDU/CSU + FDP had enough votes to reach the majority.

France
Jospin's failure to reach the runoff in 2002 was a surprise

Brazil
PT was the winner of the presidential elections of 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014. But in these four elections, PSDB had more votes than the quantity predicted both by the eve polls and the exit polls

There are some examples of the opposite, like the US presidential election of 1948, but these examples are very rare."

'Very rare' is a stretch; Gallup had Romney in the lead in its final poll in 2012, most polls had Bush ahead in 2000, FDR was underestimated in 1936, 1940 and 1944. The Canadian Liberals did better than expected in 2004 and 2006 (though not in 2008). Boris Johnson was overestimated in 2012. Harry Reid was expected to lose in 2010, as was Michael Bennet.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Supreme Court Issues Ruling On Same Sex Marriage Legalizing Marriage Nat. on: June 27, 2015, 10:46:46 pm
I'm sure JCL had his argument all worked out prior to the ruling and that he isn't just grasping at straws in the aftermath.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next Australian Federal Election - 2015/2016 on: June 27, 2015, 07:03:51 pm
Albo, though admirable, seems like too much of a fixer to be suitable for leader. Kind of amusing though that he and Pilbersek are seen as more electable than Shorten. None of this "we must appeal to the centre ground!!!11111" stuff down under it would seem.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next Australian Federal Election - 2015/2016 on: June 27, 2015, 09:03:23 am
A toss-up situation would possibly be bad news for the ALP; the incumbent government usually wins toss-ups at the federal level, whereas non-toss ups/big seat swings occur when the government is defeated (see 1975, 1983, 1996, 2007 and 2013).
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Greece Referendum 2015 on: June 27, 2015, 06:57:53 am
No; just for the chaos that would ensue.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Prior to the ruling, only a handful of Congressional Republicans were in favor on: June 27, 2015, 04:39:24 am
That is a stain that they won't be able to remove easily.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NY politicians and the Presidency - the curse of FDR? on: June 26, 2015, 05:08:37 pm
Eisenhower and Nixon were both New York residents when elected President.

Neither held office in NY though.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Supreme Court Issues Ruling On Same Sex Marriage Legalizing Marriage Nat. on: June 26, 2015, 10:53:26 am
I was wrong about Walker: http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2015/06/scott-walker-calls-supreme-court-marriage-decision-a-grave-mistake/
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Supreme Court Issues Ruling On Same Sex Marriage Legalizing Marriage Nat. on: June 26, 2015, 10:41:07 am
Christie, Kasich, Bush, Pataki and possibly Walker and Trump will take the 'It's a settled issue even though I hate it' line.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Breaking: Supreme Court rules SSM a legal right on: June 26, 2015, 10:38:20 am
Scalia continues to be the best Justice



You've been reading it too? If Roe v. Wade is ever overturned I hope he writes the ruling.

Yes, I've been skimming it. It's fantastic. Scalia's set to go down in history as one of the greatest Supreme Court Justices.

Yeah... no.

Americans and irony...
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Breaking: Supreme Court rules SSM a legal right on: June 26, 2015, 09:11:44 am
http://www.ft.com/fastft/351031/supreme-court-gay-marriage
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