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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: Today at 03:02:08 am
I really do think that swinging behind Smith was a big mistake for the PLP.

Say what you will about Corbyn but he would have never pretended to be a moderate in (for instance) 2007 to give himself a chance of winning the leadership.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Nicholas Sarkozy on: August 25, 2016, 09:58:26 am
Hollande will be re-elected.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where would the race be if Hillary's favorables were still at her 2009-12 level? on: August 25, 2016, 03:28:22 am
It would be in some cheap movie produced by a Democratic hack.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Barack Obama 25 years from now on: August 25, 2016, 03:26:46 am
Same way people remember Gerry Ford.

Nobody remembers Gerry Ford.

Exactly. Besides being the first black president, I'm sceptical Obama will be remembered for anything else.
Obama will be remembere through Obamacare, for better or for worse.

I doubt even that. The most significant thing about Obamacare is that it has been the main dividing issue during the majority of the Obama Administration. In terms of its long-term impact it's no New Deal.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should underage male (non-medical) circumcision be banned? on: August 25, 2016, 03:20:55 am
Well this is certainly an American forum isn't it.....

2.  It looks much better.  Non-circumcised it disgusting.  Are people on here actually not?

Almost every male over here.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: August 25, 2016, 02:45:11 am
Would I be wrong to say that momentum has shifted to Smith?

Yes, you would be wrong.

And 'momentum' tends to count for less in party internal elections anyway.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: SHOCKER: Trump donated $100,000 to Clinton Foundation. PAY FOR PLAY??? on: August 24, 2016, 03:08:46 pm
Why should it be shocking that a Hillary supporter donated loads of money to the Clinton Foundation?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Farage to Share Platform with Trump Tonight on: August 24, 2016, 03:04:37 pm
He couldn't get Boris Johnson or Vince McMahon to appear with him (yet), but this campaign really is one for the ages.

Mr. Brexit is traveling overseas to pass the torch in Mississippi. I can't get enough of it.

Why would an establishment Tory appear with Trump?

9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Ron Paul/Bernie Sanders/Donald Trump voters on: August 24, 2016, 10:43:18 am
trololol
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Farage to Share Platform with Trump Tonight on: August 24, 2016, 09:56:52 am
Farage to his credit is probably the man most responsible for the downfall of the BNP

Nah, the BNP are the most responsible for the downfall of the BNP.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Assange outs gay men in Saudi Arabia, also personal info of rape/abuse victims on: August 24, 2016, 07:57:56 am
The 'left' includes people ranging from Tony Blair to Leon Trotsky. It isn't one big homogeneous group.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: August 24, 2016, 07:50:21 am
Cast my vote yesterday. Voted for the more moderate and reasonable candidate.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: August 23, 2016, 03:49:01 pm
Ugh. I thought Corbyn was at least above this kind of dishonesty. At this point I'll be heartbroken if he still somehow wins.

What do you mean by "somehow"?
Clarification to the foreign posters: he will win.

The likelihood doesn't make it any less baffling.

When your opponent is Owen "Let's talk with ISIS" Smith, I don't see how that's surprising.

I note that the likes of Hilary "Let's bomb the s***t out of ISIS" Benn have had eff all to say about that idiotic statement. Just about understandable (doesn't want to damage the attempt to oust Corbyn) but you can see why much of the non-Corbynite part of the PLP (that being most of it) is viewed as unprincipled and careerist.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-St. Leo: Clinton leads by 14! on: August 23, 2016, 11:26:21 am
Who is this pollster?

Named in honour of the deceased Leo McGarry.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Senate Majority PAC (D): Bayh up 18 in Indiana on: August 22, 2016, 12:30:09 pm
Internals are showing VERY high numbers for him.

Because they are internals.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happened? Hillary's approval rating at 60%+ in early 2013 on: August 22, 2016, 05:48:54 am
Long story, yes. She wasn't running for anything yet. It's a pretty simple issue, Hillary's favourables drop when she's seeking election and rise once people remember she's actually good at her job.

It's more that her approvals rise when she's more of a non-political figure. When she led healthcare reform efforts circa 1993 her ratings were dire but were later impressive during the Lewinsky scandal (when she was merely the wife of an adulterous president). Then she announced a run for the Senate in 1999 and her ratings dropped and didn't go into the 60s until the moment she was chosen as SoS (which is a fairly non-political position o/c).
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Madame President: is it possible? on: August 22, 2016, 04:53:06 am
This was 2004, which was a very favourable year for 'traditional values' and the like.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which of the following Trump advocates do you think are going to run in 2020 on: August 22, 2016, 04:49:37 am
With a Hillary presidency I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to put up Ann Coulter...i.e. yet another nominee whose career peaked in the 90s.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: In retrospect, which were realigning elections? on: August 21, 2016, 06:56:22 am
Realignments generally occur over time and not in a single election.

This. The Southern abandonment of the Democrats in presidential elections can arguably be traced back to Al Smith in 1928, when several Southern states went for Hoover and the Democratic vote in AL and GA was only in the 50s (it had been in the 60s/70s in the bigger nationwide losses of 1920 and 1924). Despite the trends between 1960 and 1972 it didn't become absolutely clear until 2000 that the South was a Republican electoral territory.

Though had it not been for a certain event in late 1929 I suspect that process may have occurred more quickly.

20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary loses, will she claim sexism as a reason for it? on: August 21, 2016, 06:37:07 am
Hillary's main problem isn't that she's a woman but that she's not a very likeable woman. Unlikeable women tend to struggle more than unlikeable men unless they are political geniuses. And Hillary isn't a political genius but Thatcher, another unlikeable woman, was.

Moderate Heroish answer I know.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Trump is one of the reasons why I didn't support Obama in the '08 on: August 21, 2016, 06:24:19 am
So you didn't support Obama in 2008 because he was black. And you think black voters should have less power in Democratic primaries. Okay. 

It's Beet so...
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/20 - Trump +2.0 on: August 21, 2016, 05:23:33 am
The most pro-Brexit polls ended up being the most accurate polls...
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Ayn Rand on: August 20, 2016, 05:43:42 pm
Objectivists may be the most collectivised group of people in existence.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Republicans/conservatives only: LBJ or Obama? on: August 20, 2016, 12:58:17 pm
Probably the two most liberal presidents of the last fifty years (if not ever along with FDR and JFK).

Ugh, American political lexicon.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: August 19, 2016, 02:01:06 pm
Has anyone done estimates for the Liverpool constituencies? Wouldn't be surprised if Walton, West Derby and Garston and Halewood (which includes a bit of Leave-voting Knowsley borough - hence the Halewood part) all voted Leave; surely Riverside was the most Remain.

Chris Hanretty has estimates for the whole country:
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d#.ab4newhm1

(These are revised figures from the ones discussed previously, which were definitely off for Liverpool.  I haven't checked these ones.)

Cheers.
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