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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: September 27, 2014, 09:16:36 am
Another Conservative MP, Mark Reckless, has defected to UKIP.

Should I even bother with this one?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Primaries: Your Predicted Top Three Only on: September 26, 2014, 09:53:45 am
Someone will win a lot of the early contests and therefore sweep most of the subsequent ones. It won't be a close three or four way thing.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Can you see Boris Johnson as the next Tory leader or British prime minister? on: September 19, 2014, 06:23:27 pm
Tories lose in 2015, Labour-Lib Dem minority government formed. Boris becomes Leader of the Opposition and wins majority in 2020.

A Labour-Lib Dem pact or coalition is unlikely within the foreseeable future; relations between the two parties are sour to put it mildly.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 12:35:22 pm
So Sturgeon is a shoo-in, right?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 10:27:35 am
Salmond is resigning.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 06:49:45 am
YouGov has probably now sealed its place as the UK's premier pollster. Its exit poll-type thing pretty darn accurate and the now-famous 51-49 Yes lead poll of theirs may have guaranteed vast and much-needed constitutional changes all by itself.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of this Gordon Brown speech on: September 19, 2014, 05:43:30 am
This one was better:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6BA2Jz7xIXw
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Dems turn on DWS on: September 17, 2014, 05:31:28 pm

Oh, I think many congressional Dems are 'pissed'...but not in the way that the article suggests. Tongue
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 17, 2014, 05:29:18 pm
Remarkable levels of activity today. I haven't seen anything even close to the level of political activity that's happening today. Almost every conversation I hear in the street today is about independence.

So today's Yes shares are 47, 48 and 49 - exactly the same average as yesterday's. Quite amazing, really.

Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?

10PM over here, 3AM (I think) over there. No exit polling.

It's 5PM Eastern Time, so you won't even have to have a late night in the US.

Oops, brain fart. Tongue
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 17, 2014, 04:04:09 pm
So today's Yes shares are 47, 48 and 49 - exactly the same average as yesterday's. Quite amazing, really.

Sorry if I asked this already.  But what time will the polls close? And will there be exit polling allowed?

10PM over here, 3AM (I think) over there. No exit polling.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / 2014 Senatorial endorsements page now up on: September 17, 2014, 01:19:57 pm
http://uselectionatlas.org/ENDORSE/SENATE/2014/endorse.php
12  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: When do endorsements go up? on: September 17, 2014, 08:47:29 am
Cheers Dave! Smiley
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Quebec referendum, 1995 on: September 17, 2014, 06:26:40 am
I'd have voted No on this one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 17, 2014, 03:16:07 am
ICM: No 45, Yes 41
Survation: No 48, Yes 44
Opinium: No 47, Yes 43

So it's over.

Not so; anything from a ~20 point no win to a ~10 point yes win is within the realms of possibility imo. This is probably the most unpredictable vote in UK (ha ha) history.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 16, 2014, 05:12:20 pm
As pointed out elsewhere, the question of the campaign has been "Could Scotland be an independent country?". The question on the ballot paper is "Should Scotland be an independent country?".
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: VP debate: Warren vs. Rice on: September 16, 2014, 12:45:56 pm
Warren came off as pretty folksy in her debates with Brown IIRC. Rice usually has a fairly cold demeanor.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Most iconic sig in Atlas history? on: September 16, 2014, 11:32:46 am
The jfmstct had some good ones during the 2012 election cycle.

Oh, and Hmtldon's "If all RINOs were forced to become Democrats" - it showed a map with every state except Mississippi voting Democratic.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Unofficial Atlas Census on: September 16, 2014, 07:11:21 am
Gay
Cis
White
Man
Under 50K
Unemployed
Student
18-35
Socialist (voted 'Progressive')
Doesn't keep Dave locked in his basement
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: New York Gubernatorial election 2014 (Head-to-Head) on: September 16, 2014, 07:08:52 am
The honest right-winger.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich vs. O'Malley on: September 16, 2014, 07:07:23 am
Some third-party candidate who doesn't bore the nation to tears (which would be pretty much anyone other than Kasich or O'Malley) wins in a landslide.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2012 - Romney/Christie vs. Obama/Biden. on: September 16, 2014, 07:04:28 am
Romney does ~1% better in the popular vote but does not pick up any further states.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: PM Series: Question 20 on: September 16, 2014, 07:00:59 am
Disagree, probably not critical in the UK but certainly critical in the U.S.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Andrew Cuomo vs Ed FitzGerald vs Tom Corbett on: September 16, 2014, 06:59:41 am
The one who would pledge to fix this thread.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 16, 2014, 06:52:35 am
We definitely need at least a couple more polls given that the weekend's were quite inconclusive. Strange that the polling companies (or, rather, their clients) are still more interested in GE2015 despite this being arguably more significant.

Edit: Ah, there are five due out tomorrow so PB informs me.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When will Hillary announce her 2016 plans? on: September 16, 2014, 06:47:00 am
Announcements tend to be earlier in open cycles, so probably Jan-Feb.
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