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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who do you think is worse? George W. Bush or Donald Trump? on: August 17, 2017, 10:14:04 am
Difficult for me to see Trump doing anything as bad as Iraq.

Mostly because a. there's a good chance he'll be gone before the end of his first term and b. he's probably too dim to carry out such a complex scenario. The president that will be mentioned most alongside his name in the history books will likely be Andrew Johnson - another gobsh**te who didn't complete a full term and who set the country back several years via his imcompetence.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who do you think is worse? George W. Bush or Donald Trump? on: August 17, 2017, 09:28:51 am
Trump is worse as person, but W did more damage yet in total. If I had to chose one: Trump. I#d rather have W as president right now.

W. would not be hinting at nuclear war.

W. would have immediately denounced Nazis without resorting to "both sides do it."

Thing is, those words would be infinitely more damaging if they came from a politician with gravitas (say Pence or Tillerson). Trump has been known as a buffoonish loudmouth for literally decades and even had a mass-watched television series that was based around his buffoonish loudmouthedness.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion 2.0 on: August 13, 2017, 07:58:28 pm
WTF:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-40920141
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What is the best speech in modern American history? on: August 12, 2017, 08:43:24 am
While "I Have a Dream" is the obvious one, it also seems out of place. It has my vote anyway.

Why Jimmy Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" ain't on here is an absolute mystery for sure.

Also Obama's 2004 DNC Keynote was good too.

Lol Carter's malaise speech is considered one of the worst .

Not being well-received =/= being a bad speech.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sen. Ron Johnson Suggests Brain Tumor Affected McCain's Vote on: August 12, 2017, 08:42:09 am
How did this guy get reelected? All the polls showed him losing by substantial margins.

The polls were quite uniformly wrong and this benefited Republicans across the board.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2017-18 Premier League on: August 12, 2017, 08:28:52 am
Watford 3-3 Liverpool...another great advertisement for PL defense.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sen. Ron Johnson Suggests Brain Tumor Affected McCain's Vote on: August 12, 2017, 05:28:35 am
And neither are even up for re-election until 2022.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Biggest "Rising Star" flops on: August 12, 2017, 05:26:51 am
Segolene Royal - Built-up a lot of experience before going down in flames to Sarkozy, mainly due to being a French left version of Sarah Palin.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn - Any elaboration required?

Liz Kendall - The bookies briefly gave her an almost 50-50 chance at becoming Labour leader in 2015. In the end she didn't even break 5% (although there was vastly inflated support for her on social media, a la the Lib Dems).



9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2017-18 Premier League on: August 11, 2017, 03:33:41 pm
The Premier League opener is here. Arsenal v. Leicester City kick the season off tomorrow afternoon (later today for those on EDT). #COYG!

Well it's been a really great advertisement for the defenses of both sides...
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you feel sympathy for alt righters who get doxxed? on: August 11, 2017, 10:15:09 am
Shouldn't happen, but no I don't feel sorry for them.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: August 11, 2017, 09:23:43 am
I think the big problem for Labour is they need to pick up 64 seats to win a majority and if you just look at the marginals in England and Wales they would have to win some they lost by sizeable margins.  Otherwise beating the Tories in seats is easy, getting a majority seems a lot tougher.  The one way I could see them doing it, is make big gains in Scotland and win around 40 seats there as it seems big swings are more common in Scotland than England and Wales and then pick up another 30 seats in England/Wales.

The swing (if there is one) against the incumbent government tends to be bigger in the marginals than overall. Hence the Tories only got a majority of 21 in 1992 for example as opposed to the 70ish they would have achieved on a uniform swing.

12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted, 1900-2016? (Your choice of nominee edition) on: August 11, 2017, 09:16:52 am
1960: JFK
1964: LBJ
1968: RFK
1972. McGovern
1976. Church
1980. Kennedy
1984. McGovern
1988. Biden
1992. Brown
1996. N/A
2000. Bradley
2004. Clark
2008. Gravel
2012. N/A
2016. Sanders
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Prince William Now Heir Apparent?? on: August 10, 2017, 12:40:16 pm
This is where Yahoo got this 'news' from: http://www.closerweekly.com/posts/queen-elizabeth-prince-william-kate-middleton-king-queen-prince-charles-138913

14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most electable candidates 1960-2016 on: August 10, 2017, 09:59:30 am
Dems:

1960 - I dunno. LBJ might have struggled to bring out liberals and minorities in the North. He'd have swept the South of course but JFK managed to virtually sweep the South anyway. So I'm inclined to say JFK.

1964 - LBJ, quite clearly.

1968 - RFK due to his charisma.

1972 - Probably HHH.

1976 - This was the year of the outsider and Carter was just that.

1980 - Possibly Brown, actually. Lacks Teddy's baggage and Carter's record in the White House.

1984 - Unfortunately, Gary Hart, followed by John Glenn.

1988 - Al Gore

1992 - Clinton, although Tsongas and Kerrey would almost certainly have won too

2000 - Bradley

2004 - Probably Edwards or Gephardt. Kerry lacked the everyman appeal. Dean would have been buried in an avalanche of attack ads even greater than that suffered by Kerry.

2008 - Obama, then Biden, then Richardson. It's possible that Hillary might have found a way to lose, even under such favorable circumstances.

2016 - Sanders and O'Malley would have won, the others didn't/wouldn't


Reps:

1960 - Nixon
1964 - Rocky had too much baggage to even come close but he'd have done a bit better than Goldwater
1968 - Probably only Nixon had the political skills to capture the anger of the "silent majority" without coming off as an extremist.
1976 - Unfortunately Reagan, though he might still have come up short.
1980 - Reagan
1988 - Dole would have won by a bigger margin, I suspect
1992 - Buchanan might have done scarily well, but Bush
1996 - Maybe Pete Wilson
2000 - McCain
2008 - Given the circumstances, probably Huckabee's populism would have done the GOP some good
2012 - Not Romney or Huntsman. Inclined to say Newt on the basis of him being a leading figure from 'happier times'.
2016 - Even with all the baggage, Christie. Rubio would have gone down badly, as would have Cruz. Kasich would have probably won a very low-energy election on a low turnout.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Delaney to make Iowa debut next week on: August 10, 2017, 07:28:09 am
Who knows, I mean Garfield managed to get elected as a House member...
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Biggest "Rising Star" flops on: August 10, 2017, 06:34:18 am
For british pols

1.) Sajid Javid:Everyone thought because he was Asian, and someone who was moved up the conservative party quickly by Osborne, that he would be leader one day. Then everyone realized he was pretty wooden, was a die hard thatcherite and that he didn't really have much talent. Supported Remain in the referedum, despite favouring leave secretly. Pissed off both sides, and was suppose to get sacked from the Cabinet (and most likely will due to Grenfell)

2.) Andy Burnham: Perhaps I'm being harsh as he's now the Mayor of Greater Manchester, and ran a very good campaign but in terms of being Labour leader I remember in 2014/2015 when everyone (including me) thought he was the Messiah. Northern, relatively normal, very passionate speaker, moved to the left of the party. He was by far the favourite in 2015; had the support of Unite, Ken Livingstone, Neil Kinnock, Rachel Reeves etc but then Corbyn came and he completely collapsed. Tried to then run as Corbyn's shadow for the last month, took a job in the Shadow Cabinet, refused to resign during the coup and then went to Manchester. There's a good chance he'll be an ageing minister in the next Labour Government.

3.) David Lammy: Called the Britains first black PM about a 100 times, and was always talked as being a future leader, but then messed up his appearance at the dispatch box, and everyone realized he was bit annoying.

4.) Dan Jarvis: Former paras officer, young family, looks like he's from central casting, and was begged to stand in 2015 (when he could have won). Has been talked up a lot in the last year or so as a challenger to Corbyn, but then wrote an awful New Statesmen piece and gave a pretty lackluster speech (it's amazing how quickly people can die in British Politics)



Michael Portillo - Was tipped as a challenger to John Major in 1995 but failed to stand. Then he lost in seat in 1997, thus ending his hopes of succeeding Major. Returned to Parliament in 1999 and entered the contest to replace William Hague following the 2001 general elections...but failed to make the run-off, losing to IDS (!) and Ken Clarke. These days he's content with making TV programmes about trains and giving his views on late-night political discussion shows.

David Owen - Telegenic, tipped as a future Labour leader...until he decided to form the SDP as part of the Gang of Four. Despite a brief lead in the opinion polls during the early 80s, they (in Alliance with the Liberals) managed to win less than 30 seats in the 1983 election. Owen subsequently took over from Roy Jenkins as SDP leader, and had a de-facto co-leadership with David Steel that was endlessly mocked by the likes of Spitting Image. The Alliance declined in the 1987 election and the soon came apart, with Owen briefly leading a continuity SDP before retiring from Parliament in 1992.

17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion 2.0 on: August 10, 2017, 06:14:26 am
And it seems that it's being boycotted by pro-marriage equality groups. This could turn very ugly.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Biggest "Rising Star" flops on: August 09, 2017, 10:20:25 pm
Which politicians, who were once hyped up as RISING STARS, flopped the most? I'm not counting the likes of John Edwards here, who at least made it onto a national ticket and had a couple of respectable runs for the presidency.


Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) - Seen as a Southern Obama and tipped as a possible future president. This died out after he narrowly lost to Bob Corker for the Senate in 2006. He made a comeback around 2009...for a truly bizarre and brief primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand.

Bobby Jindal (R-LA) - The phrase "next Ronald Reagan" was regularly used in relation to him during the late noughties...then he was chosen to give the SOTU response in 2009. Lasted two terms as governor but became increasingly unpopular. Had a pretty pathetic run for the 2016 GOP nomination that no one noticed.

John Thune (R-SD) - Not so much a flop as a major miscall on the part of the media. They were inevitably going to hype up a telegenic guy who defeated the Democratic senate leader, but it's always been pretty clear that he's content as a legislator.

Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - This charisma-free guy was the GOP governor of a blue state and so hos hyping up was inevitable. Nearly got picked by McCain as his running mate and had a brief run for the presidency that ended at Ames.

What others?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: August 09, 2017, 10:02:13 pm
Anyways atleast 2 years away, so kind of meaningless.

Why 2 years, do you say?

Maybe thinking of the Brexit negotiations.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: August 09, 2017, 09:59:11 pm
Had a feeling that English would be vulnerable if the left just got its act together.

Labour should put Jacinda Ahern in charge, capture that Trudeaumagic
What do you think, now that it's actually happened?

I was thinking "Helen Clark with charisma" rather than of Trudeau.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's Your Degree In? on: August 09, 2017, 06:56:11 am
Celsius
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CNN: 26 Million Reasons Why Pelosi Isn't Going Anywhere on: August 08, 2017, 01:47:01 pm
Democrats could install David Duke as minority leader and it still wouldn't make the white working class vote flip.
Exactly. Good choice on emphasizing those voters' racism too (David Duke). Here come the Republican and Bernie bro tears.

Of course, it's all about identity for them and nothing else.

Nope. Those people in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania voted for Trump be ause he was at least hitting populist talking points on trade. To call everyone who voted for Trump an angrywhite man is the type of SJW politics that Hillary ran and lost her campaign on. Run with that idea in 2020, and Democrats will lose badly.

Besides, many voters in those industrial states are two time Obama voters, so don't give me the angry white man stereotype, otherwise those industrial states will vote GOP for a long time to come, because they despise the identity politics Hillary ran on. "Vote for me because I'm a woman" was not a compelling argument, despite what you think.

As for Pelosi, she needs to go, now. Put up Tim Ryan, now. Bernie proved that you don't need to raise from bankers and corporations to run a strong campaign that by all rights, should've gone nowhere. That's the part people forget when talking about her fundraising abilities. That doesn't mean jack if it's raised from Wall Streeters and corporations.

For crap's sake, another diatribe about identity politics. You can't act like Trump didn't play identity politics with all his railing about immigration and calling immigrants rapists. But all of that is a moot point. Pelosi isn't going anywhere, so just get over it.



Worth noting that Trump only got a couple of million more votes than Romney nationally, and less than 200,000 more in both Ohio and Michigan. Given population growth, the higher overall number of votes cast etc then it wasn't really a great advance for the GOP. It was more down to the Democrats' lack of compelling message. I suspect that, for the most part, Trump's identity politics appealed most to people who have loyally voted GOP for a good two decades.

A very large portion of the "missing votes" for the Democrats were black voters. I suppose Bernie Sanders, who got creamed with black voters in the primaries, would have somehow energized them to come out and vote for him. Roll Eyes

Well I didn't mention Bernie (although isn't this one of the problems with 'debating' American politics; if you're not a Hillarycrat, you must be a Berniecrat, if you're not a Democrat, you must be a Republican, if you're not a Trumplican, you must be a McCain/Collins/Murkowski cuckservative), but given that John Kerry was able to enthuse people in the Midwest better than Hillary, it's not beyond the pale that Bernie Sanders could have won 50-100,000 extra votes in the combination of WI, PA and MI to clinch the electoral victory. Then again, John Kerry running in 2016 could have done so too.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CNN: 26 Million Reasons Why Pelosi Isn't Going Anywhere on: August 08, 2017, 01:17:04 pm
Democrats could install David Duke as minority leader and it still wouldn't make the white working class vote flip.
Exactly. Good choice on emphasizing those voters' racism too (David Duke). Here come the Republican and Bernie bro tears.

Of course, it's all about identity for them and nothing else.

Nope. Those people in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania voted for Trump be ause he was at least hitting populist talking points on trade. To call everyone who voted for Trump an angrywhite man is the type of SJW politics that Hillary ran and lost her campaign on. Run with that idea in 2020, and Democrats will lose badly.

Besides, many voters in those industrial states are two time Obama voters, so don't give me the angry white man stereotype, otherwise those industrial states will vote GOP for a long time to come, because they despise the identity politics Hillary ran on. "Vote for me because I'm a woman" was not a compelling argument, despite what you think.

As for Pelosi, she needs to go, now. Put up Tim Ryan, now. Bernie proved that you don't need to raise from bankers and corporations to run a strong campaign that by all rights, should've gone nowhere. That's the part people forget when talking about her fundraising abilities. That doesn't mean jack if it's raised from Wall Streeters and corporations.

For crap's sake, another diatribe about identity politics. You can't act like Trump didn't play identity politics with all his railing about immigration and calling immigrants rapists. But all of that is a moot point. Pelosi isn't going anywhere, so just get over it.



Worth noting that Trump only got a couple of million more votes than Romney nationally, and less than 200,000 more in both Ohio and Michigan. Given population growth, the higher overall number of votes cast etc then it wasn't really a great advance for the GOP. It was more down to the Democrats' lack of compelling message. I suspect that, for the most part, Trump's identity politics appealed most to people who have loyally voted GOP for a good two decades.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ARG - NH (R-LV): Kasich +12 on: August 08, 2017, 07:31:50 am
So easy, ain't it.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gun to your head: Will Trump be reelected? on: August 07, 2017, 08:04:19 pm
No, he will lose to a Democrat. The problem for Trump is that he can't play the outsider anymore and he will actually have a record to defend (so far it's not a good one).

As did Truman in '48...
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