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March 03, 2015, 11:24:11 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How often should a legislature be elected? on: Today at 05:58:27 pm
Australia and New Zealand both function pretty well.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Opinion of peanut butter on: Today at 11:38:59 am
Option one.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 02, 2015, 10:37:24 am
Join the "crowded field"? It is a rather empty field at the moment.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Walker's dullness may prove an asset, no? on: March 01, 2015, 02:36:52 pm
Think about it. After three fairly traumatic Presidencies in a row, a dullard like Walker may be just what the nation is looking for. Uncharismatic, but still capable of providing some coherent agenda. Were Hillary to stay out (or, rather, HAD she stayed out), O'Malley might fit that mould too.
5  General Discussion / History / Re: The 1972 Almanac of American Politics on: March 01, 2015, 09:05:09 am
It's a shame that there isn't really a British version.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 01, 2015, 07:07:44 am
Even if the campaign goes badly, Miliband can probably expect his personal ratings to rise into the low 30s (or thereabouts) by election day on the back of a 'rally around the party' effect of those 40% of Labour voters who currently say he is doing badly.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 28, 2015, 11:19:17 am
That's got to be a joke right? Shocked

Rightly or wrongly, it was the narrative going around in the run-up to the election.

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Ed won because he was the more left wing candidate compared to David.


He won for the same reason that Mitt Romney and Michael Dukakis won their respective party nomination - he was the best or least worst of an unimpressive field.

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That's why certain lefty trade unions recommended him in their ballots without mentioning his brother.

The big Labour-supporting unions are certainly not 'lefty' in Labour Party factional terms.

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Democratic huh? lol

Yes, because we all know that union members are not capable of researching candidates on their own terms and have to be told who to vote for... Tongue

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Labour has a rich tradition of voting the more lefty candidate as leader.

Except on those occasions when they haven't (which is quite often).

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Harold Wilson won in 1963 because he aligned himself with Aneurin Bevan in the late 40's.

He won because he was up against a drunken idiot in the second round. He would have lost a two-way battle between himself and Callaghan. Just over two years prior to his election, Wilson lost by a 2-to-1 margin to Hugh Gaitskell.

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Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock were the lefty candidates in 1980 and 1983 respectively

Granted, though Heffer was obviously to the left of Kinnock.

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and Jim Callaghan won in 1976 because he was seen as a friend of the unions (ironic I know).

And, as I previously said, those unions are generally not on the Labour left.

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Only when they got desperate after 4 election defeats did the Labour movement start electing "right wingers" to the party leadership (John Smith in 1992 and Tony Blair in 1994).

Smith had been seen as Kinnock's natural successor even when a 1992 victory looked likely. The main alternative to Smith was the then-leading moderniser Gordon Brown (though of course he did not contest). Blair, yes, although he charisma had a lot to do with it too.

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David would have been dull, boring and wooden (as is his personality) but I'm certain his approval ratings would have been light years ahead of Ed's right now had he won the leadership in 2010 because he looked and sounded the part of a potential prime minister.

Have you ever seen that image of him holding a banana? As for looking and sounding like a potential Prime Minister, the same could have been be said of Tony Benn.

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What appeals to the Labour movement internally is very often not what appeals to the British public as a whole.

Sure, but there is little correlation between the faction of party leaders and their electoral successes/failures. Of Labour's three most successful post-WWII leaders, two (Wilson, Attlee) were from the left and one (Blair) from the right. Of Labour's two lowest post-WWII vote shares, one came under a left-winger (Foot) and the other a right-winger (Brown).
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 28, 2015, 08:19:49 am
Ed Milliband's principal rival was his older brother David. David's reputation has risen because he was not elected, but I always thought that Ed was better at simulating normal human behaviour than David was. No doubt if David had been elected, the general opinion now would be that Ed would have been the better option.

The other candidates for the Labour leadership were Ed Balls (now Shadow Chancellor), Andy Burnham (former Health Secretary now shadowing the job) and Diane Abbott (a black London MP who appears on television a lot).

A truly dreadful field. I would not have voted for any of them, even if I had been a Labour supporter. However, if absolutely forced to choose, I would concede that Ed was the least worst of them.

Mind you the recent Conservative and Liberal Democrat leadership candidates have not been much better. I think all UK parties had better quality leaders in the past. At least they usually tended to have been prominent political figures for a lengthy period, during which they had done things and stood for something more important than winning the next election.




The best potential Labour leaders of course chose not to run. Alan Johnson would have probably been the best choice...and (dare I say it?) Harriet Harman would have been better than any of the five who stood.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: RIP Leonard Nimoy on: February 27, 2015, 12:37:04 pm
One of many famous people whom I first heard of through The Simpsons, ftr.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / RIP Leonard Nimoy on: February 27, 2015, 12:33:24 pm
He has passed at 83.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 27, 2015, 06:10:36 am
Although the Tories won't be reduced to two seats, there are some startingly comparisons to Canada 1993 here, are there not? Main centre-right party faces a challenge from a party to its right which is led by a high-profile leader, nationalist party in one province/constituent nation looks set to make huge gains, another third party could be virtually wiped out.

Incidentally, the polls at the beginning of the Canada 1993 campaign were also similar - main centre-left and centre-right party tied, right-wing populist party hovering around the 12% mark.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: February 26, 2015, 05:03:08 am
Renewed rumours about the leadership, reports coming out that Turnbull now has the numbers for a spill. Suggestions that the treatment of the Human Rights Commissioner has further damaged Abbott's position internally.

If true, when could a vote take place?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: How would you have voted? UK on: February 26, 2015, 01:55:04 am
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative

2001: Labour
2005: Labour

2010: Liberal Democrat (only adamantly pro-Europe party left really...)

Yeah, the Europhile choice would be the Liberals/Alliance/Lib Dems in all of those elections.

Wasn't Thatcher an Euroskeptic ?
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Prince George of Cambridge be put to death? on: February 26, 2015, 01:53:04 am
Nah, kings and queens and princes and princesses are actually pretty cool. I would support more countries having them.

Funny given the name of your party. Tongue
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 26, 2015, 01:50:56 am
Worthless as it is, I had a dream about election night...or at least the exit poll. It showed Lab 300, Con 230, UKIP 9, SNP 4 (yes, four)...can't remember the Lib Dem number, but it must have been in the region of 80-85. The analysis lady (not someone who I've ever seen on TV before btw) said that 300 would be better for Labour than expected, whereas the Tory number would be about as expected.

So, be prepared for Cleggmania 2.0...not. Tongue
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 25, 2015, 08:19:04 pm
The blonde idiot's response: "I, uh, think this is, uh, welcome news, to, eh, the, my party and, uh, we will, uh, will win and, uh, everyone, eh loves me, purely, uh, on the, uh basis of my, eh, hair."
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % of white women will Hillary get? on: February 25, 2015, 01:03:11 pm
Within 2% of her overall percentage.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP: Hillary with big lead nationally on: February 25, 2015, 12:50:04 pm
Bill Clinton only at 49/42 favorables...compared to something like 70% with Gallup. PPP tends to show a more partisan sample than other pollsters.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Favourite cue-sport on: February 25, 2015, 11:30:31 am
Always snooker for me.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-Quinnipiac: Walker 25% Paul 13% Carson 11% Huckabee 11% Bush 10% Cruz 5% on: February 25, 2015, 10:36:39 am
As long as he doesn't make a fool of himself in the debates ala Rick Perry, Walker has this nomination won.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sorry, But Clinton’s Inevitability Is Not a Problem on: February 24, 2015, 11:15:29 pm
Of course she is going to get the nod, but that says more about the Democratic Party than it does about Clinton.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP-National: Walker +7 on: February 24, 2015, 08:16:54 pm
A majority of Republican voters support establishing Christianity as the national religion, two-thirds don't believe on global warming and half don't believe in evolution. UKIP have nothing on this lot.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 24, 2015, 04:21:01 pm
Another car crash interview from Natalie Bennett...

http://youtu.be/zKhWvogL9dc
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans only: Choose from just the "formally exploring" candidates. on: February 24, 2015, 09:40:26 am
Perry is the least dangerous.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is Tim Kaine too liberal, too conservative, or about right? on: February 24, 2015, 09:38:48 am
Just like most Democrats, he is both.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 331


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