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April 19, 2015, 02:09:22 pm
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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: political views tied towards hobbies on: Today at 02:54:20 am
Motorsports in the USA mesh very well with conservative notions about masculinity. No doubting that. Engines, aggressive driving, I can go faster than you and not wreck, 'let 'er rip!' etc.

I would think baseball would admit the most people of a liberal bent than any sport here. People like Ken Burns and Doris Goodwin are baseball fans, for instance. There's the social progress, color barrier, it's very 19th-20th century American, and it's also not a physical sport.

I go against the grain being a huge NFL fan - I grew up with it and I love the strategic game-planning/play-calling part of it, but I also enjoy physical activity, so who knows. It probably admits a lot of conservatives for the same reason that motorsports do.

...and yet golf (also not a physical sport) is probably the most right-wing major sport.
2  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Describe this person's political views/voting record on: April 18, 2015, 06:11:48 pm
Idiotic.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Opinion of Mr. Morden on: April 18, 2015, 05:55:24 pm
Moderator of that board...you have to feel for him. FF.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 18, 2015, 04:51:45 pm
Labour 3 ahead with YouGov, Tories 4 ahead with Opinium.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I need some advice on: April 18, 2015, 03:42:45 pm
Why, if you really needed advice, would you ask for it on here? Jeez.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 18, 2015, 03:34:36 pm
Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?

These are the least likely to be SNP gains (based on % swing)
41   Inverclyde   Labour   14,416   19.22%
42   Glasgow North West   Labour   13,611   19.40%
43   Glenrothes   Labour   16,448   20.31%
44   West Dunbartonshire   Labour   17,408   20.59%
45   Paisley & Renfrewshire South   Labour   16,614   20.90%
46   East Renfrewshire   Labour   10,420   20.96%
47   Motherwell and Wishaw   Labour   16,806   21.48%
48   Rutherglen & Hamilton West   Labour   21,002   22.35%
49   Glasgow South West   Labour   14,671   23.08%
50   Coatbridge   Labour   20,714   24.88%
51   Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath   Labour   23,009   25.21%
52   Orkney and Shetland   Liberal Democrat   9,928   25.71%
53   Glasgow North East   Labour   15,942   27.10%


So if the swing that Ashcroft shows in Glasgow SW (33.5%) is accurate and is repeated in Glasgow NE, the SNP will gain the latter seat with a lot to spare...
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / UK General Election 2015 - Buckingham on: April 18, 2015, 05:54:53 am
The actual outcome here won't be interesting (a 99.9% chance of a Bercow hold) but the numbers will be. Plus I believe that this is the constituency with the lowest number of candidates this time.

I'd hold my nose and vote for Bercow.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / UK General Election 2015 - Bradford West on: April 18, 2015, 05:49:59 am
Yet another circus!

This would be about the only place where I'd abstain.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee forms exploratory committee, plans May 5th announcement on 2016 on: April 18, 2015, 04:10:00 am
Obama is so loathed on the right that everyone wants to be America's post-Obummer Great Rebuilder...or something.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 18, 2015, 03:06:17 am
YouGov poll of 18-24 year-olds which is fairly old in terms of when the fieldwork was done but hey: Lab 34, Con 23, Greens 20, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, SNP/PC 5, Others 1

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 17, 2015, 04:11:45 pm
I woke up this morning

I thought you were going to recite the theme tune to The Sopranos there for a second. Tongue
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 17, 2015, 01:41:40 pm
To put the Glasgow SW swing into some context, the largest GE swing between Labour and the Tories since 1945 was around 19% - Brent North, 1997.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 17, 2015, 01:35:59 pm

Even though I strongly dislike SoCons, I welcome their candidacies...but aren't there enough in the race already?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 17, 2015, 10:51:56 am
Surely, surely, surely he can't continue if he loses his own seat, right?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio 31% Bush 30% Cruz 8% Paul 7% on: April 17, 2015, 08:08:54 am
The Walker % isn't too believable.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: the 404 page on Hillary's website is the best thing ever on: April 17, 2015, 05:24:07 am
As one who went through the 2012 campaign on here, there are going to be arguments about matters far more pointless than Hillary's 404 page...sigh.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Pat Buchanan on: April 17, 2015, 04:04:16 am
One of those nutters who you strangely can't help but like to a very slight extent; kind of like our very own Ann Widdecombe.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 16, 2015, 05:21:18 pm
Most people didn't watch the first 2010 debate either; not saying that there will be a big Labour surge, but the most important thing about these debates (in terms of their effect) is how they are portrayed by the media in the aftermath.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 16, 2015, 05:07:49 pm
There wasn't really any way that Sturgeon could lose from these debates, short of a Gerald Ford 1976 style gaffe. The others could only attack her on her desire for independence...which about half of Scots support. The whole "Vote SNP, get the Tories" argument was/is weak and pretty embarassing tbh.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 16, 2015, 04:59:52 pm
Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.
Is that because the average Briton is to the left though?

Well, let me put it another way: few Conservative voters watched the debate, presumably. Tongue Still, this poll is 'historic' - the first time Miliband has ever been ahead of Cameron on this question.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 16, 2015, 04:51:07 pm
Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 16, 2015, 04:30:56 pm
Survation poll on 'who won?': Miliband 35, Sturgeon 31, Farage 27, Bennett 5, Wood 2
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 16, 2015, 04:00:27 pm
Didn't watch it, but saw some clips. All I can ask is what on earth was Farage doing?!!!!? He completely turned into a Mail Online commenter. I thought the man, for all his faults, had some degree of restraint. Unbelievable.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: UK General Election, 2015, in Sheffield Hallam on: April 16, 2015, 07:03:57 am
Why are people with positive social scores and negative economic scores voting for Clegg?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 16, 2015, 02:20:21 am
The NDP winning Alberta would be like Bernie Sanders winning a senate seat in Wyoming or Labour winning the Cotswolds, yes?
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