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December 07, 2016, 07:04:51 pm
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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 on: November 05, 2016, 09:11:53 pm
ITT: People making ridiculous stereotypes about another group of people and feeling superior in the process.

Keep it up guys, you're really showing our moral superiority here.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Upcoming lawsuit: Trump raped pre-teen girls, said he would kill their families on: November 05, 2016, 09:08:57 pm
This story makes me genuinely sick. I am pretty emotionally immune to news events, but this is more than I can handle.

It's not right. It's just. Not. Right. Something is seriously rotten in this country.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 12/04/2016 on: November 05, 2016, 09:05:36 pm
Is there any actual argument for 'No'? At all? Sincere question.

There certainly are. There is a legitimate worry that, not the constitutional reform itself, but the reform combined with the current electoral law, essentially means giving whichever party wins full control over policy. And considering what parties could win the next elections, it is something to be scared about.

My only counter-argument is that I'm willing to take the risk, if the alternative is to keep having these dysfunctional "grand coalition" governments forever.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 12/04/2016 on: November 05, 2016, 09:02:11 pm
If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?
Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.

Doesn't a ''No'' trigger an election too, given Renzi's resignation.

No is a leap in the dark. No one knows what Renzi will really do, and no one knows what happens if he resigns.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis/Breitbart: Clinton + 2 nationally on: November 05, 2016, 08:59:41 pm
If Not-Very-Bright Bart shows her leading, she has this.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 on: November 05, 2016, 08:55:04 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can someone rank Early Vote by States from most to least favorable to Clinton so far? on: November 05, 2016, 08:50:35 pm
OK there's clearly a consensus here that NV and CO are her best states.  Then Florida.  Is Florida basically the toss up state and then after that advantage Trump?

Dem overatives have sounded very confident about FL. Of course we've got to take it with a grain of salt, but they don't really have an incentive to hype up expectation, so who knows?
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Toomey +1 on: November 05, 2016, 08:41:18 pm
Haha.

Oh f**k this. It was the one race that actually showed some movement in the right direction.

What's gotten into you lately? Jesus.

I just like my odds of ending Hillary's term with 2+ unfilled Supreme Court vacancies to be better than 50-50. Is that too much to ask?

They already are...

Note that we probably need more than a 50-50-Kaine majority to be able to go nuclear. We're not safe unless we reach 52, and the current numbers make this very unlikely.

We should hit 51, at least.

That requires picking one of MO, NC and IN - all of which we're likely trailing right now.

(the most frustrating one being NC, because if AA turnout had been holding its ground compared to 2012, Ross would likely pull it off)

I think we win IN; Missouri's a pure tossup and Burr probably has only the slightest of edges.

That's not what the latest polls say. Sure, the polls might underestimate Democratic support, but I would rather not need to rely on that.
84  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: "Ban All Abortion" supporters... what would you do in this situation? on: November 05, 2016, 08:38:59 pm
I'm pro-choice so not the intended audience here, but boy was that heart-wrenching.
85  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What do liberal millennials think about the Russian Revolution on: November 05, 2016, 08:29:40 pm
this thread really makes u think
86  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite poster who joined in 2008 on: November 05, 2016, 08:26:29 pm
I must say, aside from Evergreen and maybe Edu, this is a pretty weak bunch. No offense to anyone, just no memorable poster here.
87  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: November 05, 2016, 08:24:48 pm
I'm at the Trump Rally in Reno. It's interesting.

Why would you ever?! Shocked
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can someone rank Early Vote by States from most to least favorable to Clinton so far? on: November 05, 2016, 08:17:15 pm
Counting only the swing States that have a non-negligible amount of votes already in, I'd say NV > CO > WI > FL > NC > OH > IA.

NC is the hardest one to read (personally I'm pessimistic).
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT: Rasmussen - Trump + 11 on: November 05, 2016, 08:11:47 pm
As if Republicans in Utah wouldn't come home to the parentheses R parentheses in the end? Party loyalty is stronger than their religion, just like the evangelicals.

What callousness.

I mean, the evidence is overwhelming wrt evangelicals. I was hoping Mormons would be better than that, but it seems they aren't.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7 on: November 05, 2016, 07:53:33 pm
That's ridiculous.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Toomey +1 on: November 05, 2016, 06:42:00 pm
Haha.

Oh f**k this. It was the one race that actually showed some movement in the right direction.

What's gotten into you lately? Jesus.

I just like my odds of ending Hillary's term with 2+ unfilled Supreme Court vacancies to be better than 50-50. Is that too much to ask?

They already are...

Note that we probably need more than a 50-50-Kaine majority to be able to go nuclear. We're not safe unless we reach 52, and the current numbers make this very unlikely.

We should hit 51, at least.

That requires picking one of MO, NC and IN - all of which we're likely trailing right now.

(the most frustrating one being NC, because if AA turnout had been holding its ground compared to 2012, Ross would likely pull it off)
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: November 05, 2016, 06:35:07 pm
Is this supposed to be some kind of humble brag? Huh Good grief.
Quote
@NateSilver538  26s26 seconds ago

When you go low, I go high 80% of the time, and knee you in the balls the other 20% of the time.
Nate's losing it.

I actually LOLed at this.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: November 05, 2016, 06:03:37 pm
lolpcf

Wonder if they'll dip below their 2007 "record". Might hit 1% this time.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: November 05, 2016, 05:26:22 pm
I hate to say this because I'm not liking 538's results lately, but Nate is obviously right here and Grimm is being a pretentious dick.

Guess what? 538's model has always been adjusting for trendline, including in 2008 and 2012 when everybody was in awe at its greatness. You are entitled to believe that it's a faulty method, but cries of "UNSKEWING!!!!!!!!" make no sense.

As has been said, the real problem with 538 isn't the trendline adjustment, it's that it pays too much attention to crappy pollsters.
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: what do you make of the declining black vote this year? on: November 05, 2016, 05:11:00 pm
ITT: Republicans cheering on the new Jim Crow.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: what if the polls are wrong? on: November 05, 2016, 05:09:05 pm
This adds literally zero information on the state of the race. What an utterly vapid and meaningless piece of so-called "journalism".
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mr.Brexit on: November 05, 2016, 05:07:29 pm
STOP USING BREXIT AS AN ANALOGY
^^^^

Seriously. Stop.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 05, 2016, 05:05:31 pm
NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

Wowza. That's amazing.

I just had to make fun of the "African-Americans are not voting narrative." They weren't voting as much early but are making the charge late

Florida definitely is looking strong. It's NC I'm very much concerned about (and, no, I won't shut up about it).
99  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Birthday Cathcon! on: November 05, 2016, 04:29:35 pm
Happy birthday du... uh, wait, what's that annoying slang word he always uses? Oh yes, right. Dawg. Happy birthday... dawg, I guess.

Wink
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Name one positive thing that you respect about the previous person. on: November 05, 2016, 04:26:42 pm
He is very articulate and has a sincere interest in exchanging opinions and sharing with different perspectives. He is also one of the (actually larger than I expected) group of Atlas conservatives who have demonstrated in this election that they do have a moral conscience. That's very heartening to see.
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