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October 21, 2014, 07:04:27 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of mittromneysons.com on: October 12, 2014, 08:28:06 am
Romney named one of his kids "Tagg", while Palin gave her kids names like "Track" and "Trig".

What would happen if the two families married into each other?  Would we get kids with names like Frugg and Twigg?


Trick? Trag? Tack?
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday on: October 12, 2014, 08:26:18 am
Braley leads Ernst 56-38 among early voters, who are 15% of sample.

Dominating! Cheesy
78  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of mittromneysons.com on: October 12, 2014, 05:20:48 am
Is Tagg Romney's name supposed to be a subtle reference to the Ayn Rand heroine Dagny Taggart? I wouldn't put that past ol' Mittens.

Quote
After the 19th century conversion of major Wolof kingdoms to Islam, the tagg, or ode song in Wolof, was reused in an Islamic Nasheed tradition—an important integration of pre-Islamic style into the new Muslim paradigm.[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolof_music

So Mitt Romney is a Muslim Mormon Objectivist?
79  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 11, 2014, 01:48:37 pm
Yeah, Obama's first two years saw more progress in US public policy than any other two-year period since the 1970s at least. Had the dems kept filibuster-proof majorities throughout his presidency, he would probably be rated as one of the best Presidents in history.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Joni Ernst (R-IA) or Mike Rounds (R-SD) likelier to win? on: October 11, 2014, 07:10:17 am
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday on: October 11, 2014, 04:17:25 am
This is gonna be good...

Or very, very bad.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: October 10, 2014, 12:02:39 pm
Just a heads up that Mark Kirk lives in Highland Park in Lake County, which means he'd be in the Chicago state.

Yeah I know, but he was born in Champaign and lived in downstate IL up till college (he transferred to Cornell afterwards). If he wanted to seek a political career, he'd be quite a fool to move to Chicago State, where his opportunities would be extremely limited. I'd say he'd be most likely to stay in his native State. But anyway, if it wasn't Kirk, it could have been Patrick Hughes instead.
83  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States! on: October 10, 2014, 11:44:41 am
Updated table:

State# CDs (2010)GovernorLegislatureGerrymander
New England5DemDemUnlikely
Massachusetts11DemDemLikely
New York18DemDemPossible
Adirondack9RepRepLikely
Pennsylvania11DemRep or SplitUnlikely
Allegheny7RepRepVery likely
Maryland10DemDemVery likely
North Florida11RepRepVery likely
South Florida16DemRepUnlikely
Texas12RepRepLikely
Rio Grande11RepDemUnlikely
Jefferson12RepRepLikely
Erie7DemDemLikely
Ohio10RepRepVery Likely
Indiana8RepRepPossible
Chicago14DemDemLikely
Illinois6RepRepLikely
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: October 10, 2014, 11:07:16 am
Sorry for the long absence! I'm getting really busy these days. Anyway, while I have some time, let's move on to...


Illinois

What would Illinois look like without Chicagoland? Certainly nothing like the image that we tend to have this State IRL. The level of demographic, economic, political and cultural hegemony that Chicago exerts over downstate IL rivals that of NYC over upstate NY. We can pretty sure that our Illinoisans would welcome this split as a liberation. In a nutshell, the new Illinois is a sparsely populated (ranking just below Kentucky) but relatively vast State. It remains quite diverse, with several mid-sized cities like Springfield, Peoria or Champaign, and both major industrial and rural areas (including regions that would fit well in the South). How would such a State have voted throughout the past half-century?

IL Presidential election results, 1960-2012:


To no one's surprise, Illinois has historically tended to favor Republicans, at least at the Presidential level. It only rarely went Democratic, and generally in exceptional circumstances like LBJ's landslide or Obama's favorite-son effect in 2008 (would it have crossed Chicago's borders in such a scenario? this remains unclear). Clinton seems to be the only Democrat to have done genuinely well in the State, sweeping it by 10 points in 1992. The contrast with Obama, who only narrowly carried IL in 2008 and was severely distanced by Romney four years later, is quite striking. On the whole, Democrats seem to be on the decline when compared to their performances in the 1990s - although if you look at the bigger picture, Democrats were already doing pretty bad in Kennedy's days. It's also interesting to note that, since 1984, Illinois has displayed an uncanny similarity with Missouri in its voting patterns. Over this period, the two States' margins differed by no more than 2 points in every election except 2008. Thus, just like Missouri, Illinois seems to have a peculiar blend of Southern and Midwestern identities.

At the same time, Illinois (like most other States seen so far) has undergone some significant shifts in its internal geography, as this 1960-2012 comparison highlights (Republicans wins by 10 and 8 points, respectively):



The trend seems quite clear: southern Illinois (especially southeastern Illinois) has moved sharply to the right, with most of its counties giving Romney results over 60%. Meanwhile, Democrats seem to have gained in the northern half of the State, most notably along the border with Iowa. Clearly southern IL has been caught in the same dynamic as the rest of the South, the long-term collapse of Democratic support. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois, just like neighboring Iowa and Wisconsin, went from likely R to lean D after the 1980s. Still, being deprived of Chicago's influence, Democrats will generally face an uphill battle in Illinois.

Capital: Springfield remains the obvious choice.

Governor: Bill Brady would have no trouble getting elected here.

Senators: Dick Durbin (class 2) and Mark Kirk (class 3). The funny thing is that, while Illinois would keep the same Senators as IRL, their electoral positions would be essentially flipped: Durbin is probably facing a very close race for his reelection this year, while Kirk was swept to office in 2010 and has a decent shot at winning again in 2016 (his biggest fear should be a conservative primary challenge).

Representatives: Easily holding the trifecta after 2010, the Republicans would have several options to go with. As Muon has demonstrated, it is possible to draw a gerrymander that perfectly dilutes Democratic strength throughout the State, resulting in six districts with lean-R to likely-R ratings. That said, I'm not sure Republican would be ready to take such a big risk (all 6 districts voted for Romney in 2012, but for Obama in 2008). Maybe they'd choose instead to work a Democratic vote sink packing together East St. Louis, Springfield and Peoria, so as to keep 5 seats safe? I'm not sure, but for lack of an alternative proposal I'll stick with Muon's. So 6R-0D.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in South Dakota? on: October 10, 2014, 05:02:51 am
Probably Rounds.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: VA: University of Mary Washington: Warner +10 on: October 10, 2014, 04:56:13 am
IT'S HAPPENING
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: World-renown horror author Stephen King whole-heartedly endorses Shenna Bellows on: October 09, 2014, 03:39:09 pm
Could this be a game changer?

88  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: People who are NOT FFs or HPs on: October 09, 2014, 11:43:08 am
The vast majority of all people.

^^
89  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 5.8 million Americans can't vote because of their criminal records (+ map) on: October 09, 2014, 10:16:43 am
Ah, Florida...
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What are the saftey Nazis going after this week? on: October 09, 2014, 10:12:21 am
loldead0
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did the South vote in previous presidential elections? on: October 09, 2014, 10:03:41 am
Comparing the Southern vote to the National vote

2012: R+14,0
2008: R+14,8
2004: R+12,7
2000: R+11,8
1996: R+8,4
1992: R+6,8
1988: R+8,6
1984: R+6,9
1980: D+2,5
1976: D+6,9
1972: R+16,7
1968: R+3,2
1964: R+17,3
1960: D+1,8
1956: D+12,4
1952: D+13,2
1948: D+17,7
1944: D+27,1
1940: D+31,7
1936: D+23,2
1932: D+29,5



This is a much better way of looking at it. The massive drop between 1956 and 1960 has been explained over and over, but I'd be curious to know more about the 10-point drop from 1944 to 1948.

1948 was the first time Democrats included Civil Rights in their platform (resulting in Thurmond's candidacy).
92  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: French presidential election, 2012 (Runoff) on: October 09, 2014, 09:52:41 am
I wish this was the actual runoff we had...
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-Rassy: Orman+12 on: October 09, 2014, 09:50:57 am
Congrats, Phil!
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In Defense of Obama on: October 09, 2014, 09:27:28 am
Krugman continues to be the best.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who would YOU vote for in South Dakota? on: October 09, 2014, 02:35:06 am
The Democrat.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-SurveyUSA: Grimes takes the lead (FORUM exclusive news) on: October 08, 2014, 07:47:20 am
I just don't understand how cross tabs can be out of whack across the board (key part of the sentence) and the overall result still makes sense.

Uh? That's the whole point of random sampling. A sum of inaccurate observations can produce an overall accurate result.
97  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Virginia Congressional map struck down on: October 07, 2014, 02:56:17 pm
Fantastic news! Cheesy
98  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States! on: October 07, 2014, 10:53:54 am
Just to make it simpler, here's what you need to know about each State for redistricting:

State# CDs (2010)GovernorLegislatureGerrymander
New England5DemDemUnlikely
Massachusetts11DemDemLikely
New York18 or 19DemDemPossible
Adirondack9RepRepLikely
Pennsylvania11DemRep or SplitUnlikely
Allegheny7RepRepVery likely
Maryland10DemDemVery likely
North Florida11RepRepVery likely
South Florida16DemRepUnlikely
Texas12RepRepLikely
Rio Grande11RepDemUnlikely
Jefferson12 or 13RepRepLikely

Obviously I guessed that you'd have your new IllinoiS a Pub gerrymander, since it wasn't listed here. I'd also assume that CHicago is a Dem gerry. Did you intend for the revisions to IndIana, MichiGan, and WiSconsin to follow RL 2010?

I'm too busy right now to update this table for all the States I've covered so far, but here's the complete (and 100% accurate) data for the 2010 apportionment among the new States:

StatePopulationCDs
California del Sur21,146,84730
New York13,038,82618
South Florida11,039,03516
Georgia9,687,65314
Chicago9,686,02114
Michigan9,572,27914
North Carolina9,535,48313
Pacific8,906,50413
Jefferson8,796,33912
New Jersey8,791,89412
Texas8,599,82712
Washington8,573,43212
Virginia8,001,02411
Pennsylvania7,773,45111
North Florida7,762,27511
Rio Grande7,749,39511
Massachusetts7,600,19611
Maryland7,273,20910
California7,166,68210
Ohio6,852,20110
Arizona6,392,0179
Tennessee6,346,1059
Adirondack6,339,2769
Missouri5,988,9278
Wisconsin5,831,9218
Indiana5,664,2658
Minnesota5,303,9257
Colorado5,029,1967
Allegheny4,928,9287
Alabama4,779,7367
Erie4,684,3037
South Carolina4,625,3647
Louisiana4,533,3726
Kentucky4,339,3676
Illinois4,130,5746
Oklahoma3,751,3515
Connecticut3,574,0975
Oregon3,549,7645
New England3,270,5725
Iowa3,046,3554
Lincoln3,039,8124
Mississipi2,967,2974
Arkansas2,915,9184
Kansas2,853,1184
Utah2,763,8854
Nevada2,734,4744
New Mexico2,059,1793
West Virginia1,852,9943
Nebraska1,826,3413
Hawaii1,360,3012
Alaska710,2311

Regarding Midwestern States, IN, MI and WI would be like IRL in terms of partisan control, OH and IL would probably be in Republican hands while ER and CH are in Democratic hands.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-SurveyUSA: Grimes takes the lead (FORUM exclusive news) on: October 06, 2014, 04:17:58 pm
Wow.

Of course it's just one poll and needs confirmation, but still far better than nothing.
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The t_host1 Institute of Comedy on: October 06, 2014, 01:33:17 pm
Looks like getting demodded was a blessing in disguise.

"Inks honey, are you coming to bed?"
"NO! I NEED TO STOP THESE TROLLS AND DELINQUENTS ON THE ATLAS FORUM! STAY AWAY WOMAN!"
"oh...okay Cry"
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