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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: August 26, 2015, 05:07:58 pm
What about Raul Ruiz for SF Governorship?

You mean CS? Sure, he sounds perfect for the job. Smiley
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: August 26, 2015, 04:56:39 pm
2012 House of Representatives Elections


Democrats: 207 (+6) - including Bernie Sanders, formally I-NE
Republicans: 229 (-5)

Finally a branch of government where Democrats benefit from the States redrawing! Cheesy After getting severely diminished in the Electoral College, the Senate and Governorship, the Dems certainly could use six more House seats. The map would still be stacked against Democrats (remember than in 2012 they actually won the PV), and there would still be lots of gerrymandering throughout the country (though more evenly spread between the two parties, thanks to golden opportunities like New York, Erie, Chicago, Maryland and Washington). Still, in this scenario Democrats would only be 12 seats away from a majority, certainly a much more attainable target. So, in a reasonably good year, the House might be up for grabs.

Most State splits end up working to the advantage of Democrats. For example, in Pennsylvania, a fair map would net the Democrats two more seats than what they actually won in the corresponding area (6 instead of 4). I've guesstimated the same outcome in South Florida (although that might be excessive). In Ohio, controlling Erie would allow Democrats to replace the GOP's abomination with their own gerrymander, and double their delegation from 3 to 6. Down South, all Republicans can take is one more seat, meaning that the two States' partisan balance 6 to 11 instead of 4 to 12 (one seat is gained in the apportionment). Meanwhile, the Texas split leaves the same number of Democrats, but takes away one Republican. Another safe-D seat is gained with DC's inclusion into Maryland, finally giving Washingtonians the representation they deserve. Another seat shifts from GOP to Dem hands due to the new borders of Washington State. Finally, Republicans lose one seat due to MN only getting 7 in apportionment (presumably it's Michelle Bachmann who gets axed off).

Republicans have their silver linings too. Although they are forced to cede one of their two NY seats to Democrats, they more than make up for it in Adirondack, netting two seats from them thanks to an elaborate gerrymander. They could also possibly draw a 6 lean-R districts in Illinois, but I've settled for a 5-1 map to make those 5 CDs absolutely safe. Overall, this means that one more Republican would represent the area covered by CH and IL than IRL (but the same number of Democrats). Finally, Republicans might find a way to take one of New England's five seats due to a more favorable CD makeup around southern NH).

The California split doesn't change the partisan balance (possibly, Republicans could take one seat away from Dems in CA, but I've decided to take the safe route and leave it at 6-4). Neither do the tweaks to Nevada's border or the exchange of territory between MI and WI. Merging the four inland-NW States into Lincoln still keeps all of them Atlas blue. And MA + RI still equals an all-Dem congressional delegation.
78  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which of the "Big Four" European countries is most socially conservative? on: August 26, 2015, 02:47:36 pm
Eastern Ukraine is most socially conservative.

Called it! Tongue
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: August 26, 2015, 02:08:54 pm
6 years, Smeesh! Wow, I guess I didn't look how far back this went. Congratz on this btw, excited for your new projects!

Well, to be fair, I completely rebooted it about a year ago (and before then it had been dead for 4 years), so that's when I did 90% of the wok.


Thanks for doing this, Antonio. I really enjoyed it; this is one of the threads I checked often when I was lurking.

Thanks! Smiley It's great to see I've actually managed to contribute something so appreciated on this forum.
80  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Megathread: Congressional Vote on the Iran Deal on: August 26, 2015, 01:55:46 pm
Could Colling actually deserve her reputation as a sensible moderate for once by voting Yes?
81  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should illegal immigrants be able to vote? on: August 26, 2015, 01:51:55 pm
Yes(Normal, not a fascistic nationalist retard)

You're some kind of retard if that's your pathetic response.
OK how's this:
I believe that the Earth is everyone's and no one should be forced to live where they don't wish to and that includes the right to act with in the civic life of what ever region a person wishes to live in. I also believe anyone who believes that humans should be restricted by literal lines on a map have no human compassion and are nothing more than bigoted idiots.

Much better and infinitely more relatable response.
No. If anything, Murica is coming off as even more retarded than before now.

Roll Eyes

Murica's view is perfectly sound and rational, and I agree with him 100%.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Elections and Politics, 2015 ed. on: August 26, 2015, 01:16:47 pm
Salvini is now supporting an alliance with Forza Italia in the next general election. "It's the only way to beat Renzi" he said.

Fair enough, you were right and I stand corrected. Wink

Though it's still far from a done deal.
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Two TV journalists shot dead live on air on: August 26, 2015, 09:17:15 am
That's really horrible. RIP.
84  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of DonaldTrumpForLife on: August 26, 2015, 05:04:57 am
Not worth our attention.
85  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is there such a thing as a "late early life crisis"? on: August 26, 2015, 05:04:00 am
That's probably the state you've been in for the past 5 years or so.
86  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which of the "Big Four" European countries is most socially conservative? on: August 26, 2015, 04:24:40 am
Italy >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Germany >>>> France >= UK

Also, inb4 Ukraine jokes.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ? on: August 26, 2015, 04:16:09 am

Yes he is, just read the first post in this thread. He is the one who randomly started trolling about immigration.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: August 25, 2015, 05:08:57 pm
On the other hand, you (and all this thread's readers) can still contribute to this project, by drawing the CDs of the new States! Anyone wants to take a look at one of the Californias, Floridas or Texases? Smiley
89  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States! on: August 25, 2015, 05:06:49 pm
Re-bump now that the project is close to an end, and the 113th House composition is my upcoming step.
90  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The Big City Areas vs The Rest of The State: North Carolina on: August 25, 2015, 04:33:38 pm
I feel obligated to vote Raleigh/Durham, because Duke was one of the three universities I was admitted in. Wink
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: August 25, 2015, 03:38:49 pm
Sad that this is ending ;(
Maybe you could do different states now? Cheesy

I have other projects in mind at the moment - much, much bigger than this one which took me 6 frigging years to finish. Tongue And I'll also probably be somewhat busier for the next couple years, starting my PhD and all. So I'm afraid I can't do that. Wink
92  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Alan Grayson vs Patrick Murphy Florida democratic primaries on: August 25, 2015, 03:24:37 pm
Murphy (sane)
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: August 25, 2015, 02:47:07 pm
All right, the Governors run-up is over. I'll wrap up this thread with an overview of the composition of the House of Representatives and of State Legislatures for the 2013-2015 period.
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Some kind of Test before Voting? on: August 25, 2015, 01:53:43 pm
Uniformed people are entitled to a voice in representation like anybody else. It's as simple as that.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ? on: August 25, 2015, 01:52:18 pm
Blame Hifly.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: August 25, 2015, 01:46:27 pm
Lee Fisher is a pretty bad campaigner iirc.

Then it all comes around. Wink


2016 Gubernatorial Predictions



Both parties could, in a best-case scenario, sweep 6 out of 8 governorships (although the Democrats' real ceiling is probably at 5). Maggie Hassan and Jay Inslee are both safe, due to their States being somewhat more left-wing than IRL. So is Matt Mead,  a reasonably popular incumbent in a solid-R (although somewhat friendly to Democrats at the local level) State. Mike Pence is probably favored in Indiana due to the removal of the Chicagoland counties, but the election could still easily go either way. Overall, expect no change or R+1.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 (well, maybe...) on: August 25, 2015, 10:27:52 am
As a far left-winger, I can assure you that internal democracy in our kinds of organizations are never all the hype they are made to be... More often than not, a leader can expel whoever he wants and get away with it even if he controls only a small portion of the party. Democracy doesn't quite work, you see.

Yeah, in this regard, not that much has changed since Robert Michels' days.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ? on: August 25, 2015, 07:04:31 am
Besides, it's deeply disturbing that you advocate naturalizing foreigners only for the purpose of winning elections for center-left parties. If they have to rely solely on this to win, they are politically bankrupt because it shows that they have no solutions to actual problems...

That's not the only reason I support it. I also think taking in more immigrants is morally right as well as beneficial both economically and culturally. In short, there are only advantages. The electoral marginalization of racists is only a welcome side-effect. Wink


Why should it be morally right to crowd out a people in their own homeland?

Because I don't believe that being born on the right side of a border gives you a right to deny people who were born on the wrong side the same chances you had in your life. As long as they conform to the basic democratic rules of the place they settle in, people should have the right to live wherever they want to.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ? on: August 25, 2015, 05:53:21 am
In the case you guys don't get it, the tone of my post wasn't exactly serious. The substance was (I believe that more immigration would be a blessing for European societies) but the overreaction to what was only me putting that in terms designed to annoy Hifly and his fellow xenophobic trolls is getting ridiculous.
100  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should illegal immigrants be able to vote? on: August 25, 2015, 05:45:28 am
In local elections, yes.
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