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October 31, 2014, 12:53:20 pm
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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: October 23, 2014, 04:24:23 am
Now for Wisconsin right?

Yeah, Wisconsin's next (though not much more interesting than Michigan).
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: RIP Udall on: October 22, 2014, 05:07:31 pm
Looks like only one Mark will be re-elected this year.

Which one? Udall, Pryor, and Begich are all in dire positions.

Sanford? Tongue
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Tunisian parliamentary (10/26) and presidential (11/23) elections, 2014 on: October 22, 2014, 03:31:01 pm
I think the election of Sunday is the most interesting election of the end of this year. Especially for those who wonder whether Western type democracy can work in Arab countries. I am looking forward to it. Unfortunately opinion polls are not reliable at all.

Yeah, I'm definitely looking forward to it as well.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY: The DSCC is back baby! on: October 22, 2014, 01:31:35 pm
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/524990367679397889

Quote
Dem source, on @dscc going back up in #kysen: "race essentially tied...undecideds breaking her way"



I really hope this is not the equivalent of Romney campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania in the last week of 2012... Sad
80  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Give a title to the previous poster's autobiography on: October 22, 2014, 01:26:56 pm
Imprisoned

(sorry, that was too easy Tongue)
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: RIP Udall on: October 22, 2014, 01:20:23 pm
Jesus F**king Christ. Udall must really have been braindead the whole campaign, that's the only way to explain this.
82  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Better President, of these two (Bill Clinton vs. Barack Obama) on: October 22, 2014, 01:11:26 pm
It's not like Clinton was actually better at negotiating than Obama, it's simply that the GOP wasn't completely insane yet.

That's not what Democrats were saying in the '90s...

Emphasis on "completely".
83  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: October 22, 2014, 01:02:19 pm
Gosh.
84  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Better President, of these two (Bill Clinton vs. Barack Obama) on: October 22, 2014, 11:39:49 am
It's not like Clinton was actually better at negotiating than Obama, it's simply that the GOP wasn't completely insane yet.
85  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Catholic church opens up - a little bit - to gay couples on: October 22, 2014, 11:35:49 am
The far right bishops filibustered it, but it's clear Francis has majority support on this issue.

Once he has a few years to appoint more favorable bishops, this will pass.

Yeah, I think so too. Things have been moving so fast in the Church lately that we feel disappointed when they don't move fast enough, but I think that by the end of Francis' pontificate he will have succeeded in bringing the Church where he wants it to be.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: October 22, 2014, 11:11:29 am
Michigan

With barely 300,000 inhabitants (less than half a Congressional District), Michigan's Upper Peninsula never left much of a mark in Michigan politics. As a result, the State wouldn't look much different without it.

MI Presidential election results, 1960-2012:


As you can see, no Presidential winner has changed, and even the magnitude of their victory has remained almost identical. There really isn't much to see here. The PVI curves of old and new Michigan are also nearly identical.



In the last two decades, removing the UP has brought a benefit to Democrats of less than half a point (although funnily enough, this is enough to change the sign of MI's 1996-2000 trend, from R to D). In the past however, the UP was actually a bit more Democratic than the rest of the State (most notably in 1984 and 1988), meaning that this change would have weakened the Dem's position. Still, we're talking of really minimal changes.

Capital: Still Lansing

Governor: Still Rick Snyder, still facing a close reelection contest.

Senators: Still Debbie Stabenow (class 1) and Carl Levin (class 2)

Representatives: The Republicans' control over the State Legislature would also remain virtually unchanged, meaning that the gerrymander would still be there. Michigan would keep its 14 Congressional Districts as well, which means that CDs would be somewhat smaller in population. In terms of party split, it probably also stays the same at 9R-5D.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia is absolutely smashing its VR records (three graphs + two articles) on: October 22, 2014, 11:05:48 am
THE DREAM IS ALIVE
Wonderful news!
Surf's up!
88  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best President, of these three on: October 22, 2014, 07:12:27 am
Truman, easily.
89  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Previous Poster's Signature: The Wrath of Khan on: October 22, 2014, 06:45:13 am
Dumb and unfunny, as usual.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions on: October 22, 2014, 05:01:46 am
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2014 Senatorial Predictions on: October 22, 2014, 04:58:55 am
92  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How partisan are you in your voting? on: October 22, 2014, 04:39:02 am
Option 1, like any reasonable person.
93  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Our President continues to be the best on: October 22, 2014, 04:36:10 am
Way to ruin a perfectly good thread...
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If you thought Obama's response to Ebola hasn't been ideal... on: October 22, 2014, 04:26:46 am
Ah, good ol' Ronnie...
95  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Better President, of these two (Bill Clinton vs. Barack Obama) on: October 21, 2014, 01:34:22 pm
Obama, by thousands of miles. Clinton is a disgrace to the Democratic Party.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP says Gardner+3 on: October 21, 2014, 12:10:36 pm
Well, sh*t.
97  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Gough Whitlam on: October 21, 2014, 05:45:21 am
Obvious FF, both for his reforms and for sticking it to the conservatives. Greatest Australian Prime Minister of all time.
98  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Worst President of these three (19th-century Republicans) on: October 21, 2014, 05:43:13 am
McKinley by far.
99  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of "Lincoln" (the movie) on: October 21, 2014, 04:14:58 am
Very compelling (the political horse-trading scenes especially; I think the decision to focus it so squarely on the thirteenth amendment instead of turning it into some dumb Lincoln biopic was a very good one) until Spielberg had to go and ruin everything with his goddamn stupid ending.

Oh yeah, the movie should have ended with the celebrations of the Amendment's passage. There really was no need to continue up to the assassination we all know about anyway.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP: Hagan +3 on: October 20, 2014, 10:51:21 am
Dominating! Cheesy
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