Making up about 2/3 of its original population, this diminished New York State retains within its border the city that makes it famous, as well as Long Island and the five counties of its close northern suburbs. To no one's surprise, it is a one-party Democratic State, giving Democratic presidential candidates extremely lopsided margins. In fact, this is probably the most overwhelmingly Democratic State in modern elections (Obama's home State of Hawaii gave him only slightly higher margins).
NY Presidential election results, 1960-2012:
However, it must be noted that New York has not always been quite so
democratic. While Democrats have always performed better there than nationwide, for a long time the State remained vulnerable to Republican waves. Traditionally,New York used to be an extremely polarized State: the four man boroughs were Democratic countries, while Long Island, Staten Island, and the Northern suburbs leaned strongly toward the Republican Party. Most of the time, the densely populated inner NYC (it makes up about 60% of the State's population, but only a slim majority of the votes cast, due to poor turnout) easily outweighed the Republican periphery. However, in the 1980s, Reagan's overwhelming popularity in suburban New York allowed him to win the State twice. I was actually pretty amazed when I realized that: I even double-checked my excel formula to make sure I hadn't made any mistake, but no, he really did carry a State that now gives 70% of its vote to Obama.
Here's the 1984 county map, to give you an idea.
That year, Reagan defeated Mondale by a razor-thin 0.2 points, 49.9% to 49.7%. In this map you can see what happened. Mondale carried the four borough. Mondale carried Manhattan by 45 points, the Bronx by 34, Brooklyn by 23, and the Queens by a paltry 7. Meanwhile, Reagan distanced Mondale by 30 points in Staten Island, 28 points in Long Island, by 20 points in the two inner suburban counties of Westchester and Rockland, and by 36 points in the two northernmost counties of Dutchess and Orange. In short, New York State in the 1980s was split in two: an uber-Democratic urban core, and a just as strongly Republican suburban ring.
What has changed since, accounting for the State's massive Democratic trend, are mostly the suburbs, which are now solidly in the Democratic column. In 2012 for example, Obama did better than nationwide in every county except Putnam (Romney's only victory), Staten Island, and Long Island's Suffolk County. The four borough have also fallen even further into Democratic hands, to the point that Romney couldn't break 20% in any of them. In short, chopping of Upstate NY doesn't change much in presidential politics. From a State that has maybe 0.1% of voting Republican anytime soon, we get a State where this chance is maybe 0.001%.
The remaining now is: what about Upstate, or, as it's called in this scenario, the State of Adirondack? Are there enough Democrats there to keep it in line, or did this split Result in a Republican gain of about 10-15 Electoral Votes?Capital:
It would be just wrong to have it be anywhere else than in NYC. Probably the Statehouse should be located in Manhattan, considering its historical centrality.Governor: Andrew Cuomo
could still easily take the spot, but he'd probably face a sizable opposition on his left and a solidly Democratic State Legislature would thwart the most right-wing aspects of his agenda.Senators: Charlie Rangel
(class 1) and Chuck Schumer
(class 3) - if this State can't have at least one African-American in its statewide elected offices, I don't know which one can. Representatives:
With Democrats in total control of the State Legislature, they could probably easily pull a gerrymander and take all the State's seats for themselves. That said, I'm not sure they would do it. Regardless, even under the current bipartisan map they already control all but two seats in that area, so things wouldn't change much.