Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 22, 2017, 05:22:12 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 302
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 Predictions Thread (June 20) on: June 20, 2017, 02:46:18 pm
If the outcome is a win without a recount:
- 30% chance of Ossoff winning by 3 points or less
- 25% chance of Handel winning by 3 points or less,
- 15% chance of Ossoff winning by 3-5 points
- 15% chance of Handel winning by 3-5 points
- 10% chance of Ossoff winning by more than 5 points
- 5% chance of Handel winning by more than 5 points

If the outcome is a win on a recount
- 70% chance of Ossoff winning on a recount
- 30% chance of Handel winning on a recount

Chances that there will be a recount: about 50-50

^^^All of this being my humble opinion, of course.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of having 'Like' post feature on Atlas? on: June 19, 2017, 03:41:54 pm
I oppose having a "like" button mandated by the central forum leadership.

Leave it to the subforums
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Van hits Muslims coming out of Finsbury Park Mosque in London several casualties on: June 19, 2017, 01:37:38 pm
we all know why this hate filled monster was radicalized to lash out at the Muslim community.

You do realize that this exact same logic can just as easily be applied to Muslims who are radicalized to lash out at the "Western community" or whatever because of decades (if not centuries) of Western (or Western-supported, at least) aggression, colonialism, discrimination, disenfranchisement, political repression, and generally malicious attitudes against Muslims - with many of these things still happening today?

None of this gets us anywhere.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Artists, communist dictatorships, right-wing dictatorships on: June 18, 2017, 07:16:40 pm
I think the Nazis skew the picture, given their omnipresence as a symbol of evil in almost all art.

Which is somewhat strange, given their cooperation of some artistic elements in the Reich.

Somewhat off topic, but HOT TAKE:

Conservatives distanced themselves from fascism by saying that fascists are actually socialists and socialists and liberals are one and the same so by the transitive property, the real fascists are liberals.

Liberals and (especially) socialists distanced themselves from Communism by saying that socialism and Communism are not one and the same and by also saying that real Communism hasn't been tried yet.

In the US, at least, the former's approach has been much more successful politically than the latter's. And it doesn't help that the fascist states were defeated seven decades ago, while the Cold War lasted into the 90s - so the threat (real and/or perceived) of left-wing tyranny is literally far closer to (most) people's minds today than right-wing tyranny. Plus, the fact that the Soviet Bloc collapsed in the Reagan-Bush era certainly seemed to vindicate the Reaganites' approach in the eyes of (much of) the public, giving the Republican Party a significant post-Cold War upper hand (and I'd argue, the Right in the broader Western world - though I defer to the judgment of more knowledgeable posters here).

But alas, even as the Democratic Party incorporated their own version of Reaganism into their approach to governance (driven as much by the decline of organized labor and other bulwarks of the American Left as by actual shifts in public opinion), they also became more reliant politically on public sector unions and government in general, as well demographically-based interest groups i.e civil rights/racial minority advocacy groups, immigrant advocacy groups, women's rights/feminist advocacy groups, LGBT advocacy groups - not so good for appealing to white working class men (and women, to a lesser extent) who are already feeling alienated by the Democrats' embracing the same changes in the economy that have adversely affected working class men and women in general - not just whites! And when you combine this with 9/11 and the rise of (Sunni) Islamic jihadism, as well as other trends associated with globalization i.e. both immigrants and US citizens becoming less white as a population, people who aren't rich finding it increasingly difficult to marry, have kids, go to college, find secure, full-time work and employers who have some modicum of dignity and respect for their employees, find a place to live that is both safe and affordable, and just have a remotely decent, fulfilling life in general...well, recent political trends start to make more sense, don't they?

tl;dr this is why Donald Trump is President of the United States in Year 2017
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Atlantic: How the AHCA Could Cause an Economic Downturn on: June 18, 2017, 06:39:37 pm
I'm at least as worried (though it's not a competition) about the Financial CHOICE* Act because unlike AHCA it doesn't seem to be generating as much controversy. A deeply unfortunate side effect from this administration's daily outrages and scandals - which have made this country even number to political horrors than we had already been, ever since Vietnam and Watergate (and exponentially, at that).

*I'm convinced that the contemporary Republican Party thought 1984 was an instruction manual.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ann Coulter furious at Trump over broken promises on: June 18, 2017, 06:30:38 pm
hahahahaha
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: Obama caused Shooting on: June 17, 2017, 12:31:29 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is the Mountain West so socially liberal? on: June 16, 2017, 04:05:28 pm
Montana is as liberal in social values as Virginia

No. This "Montana is a sociul librully, fiscual conservaiv state" meme is greatly exaggerated, and for the most part not even true. It's definitely not more or as socially liberal as Virginia, lol.

Virginia's social liberalism is skewed by certain places (*cough*No*cough*VA). Most of the state is Bible-thumpin' country.
9  General Discussion / History / Re: On the Abraham Lincoln was conservative claim. on: June 16, 2017, 01:10:23 pm
The US (and the UK and continental Europe) was going through many radical (emphasis) changes throughout the 19th century, on account of the Industrial Revolution and related advances in science and technology, increased immigration from Germany, Scandinavia, and the British Isles (including the infamous Irish Catholics - some of my ancestors! Tongue ) and the rise of both radical evangelical Protestantism in the US (see: the Second Great Awakening) and different forms of liberal and radical Protestantism in parts of Europe (Germany, Scandinavia, etc.), along with with new, revolutionary or borderline-revolutionary artistic, literary, and philosophical schools associated with Romanticism, the Hegelians (and then Marx, of course), utopian socialists, anarchists, and so on and so forth. Much of that was in Europe, but obviously some of it crossed the Atlantic and contributed to significant changes in American culture.

Domestically, the US was engaging in massive westward expansion, (American) Indian removal, wars with Mexico, adding new states every decade, and of course was rapidly growing in population both due to high birth rates and increased immigration. And even with all of this craziness and growth that led to what would become the entire continental United States, the slavery issue became THE issue that polarized the country by region/section, and directly led to the utterly transformative (revolutionary in its effects, really) Civil War. And American politics had already been going through seismic upheavals of its own; think of "Jacksonian democracy, the extension of the franchise and the rise of strong parties and political machines, as well as all the political parties and factions that came and went during this period!

My point in all of this is that neither the mid-19th century Republicans nor the mid-19th century Democrats - any faction of them, really - could be considered truly "conservative" even by the standards of the period because the period in question was one of so much radical change and social, economic, cultural, and political upheaval that there was no hope of "conserving" much of anything. Radical change was happening and would continue to happen for a while; the relevant question for political actors was which of these upheavals would they be willing to embrace, and by how much.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best Post-WWII President on: June 16, 2017, 11:51:22 am
Truman, yeah - and that's in spite of giving the United States the beyond-horrifying distinction of being the only country in history to deliberately slaughter people (and two entire cities, at that!) using nuclear weapons. At least he had the decency to veto Taft-Hartley, even if to no avail.

I think it's clear that the enormous growth of the Presidency and executive power more broadly since the 1930s (with some similarly negative antecedents, of course; see Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson) is among the worst of modern American political trends, and is (one of the things) directly responsible for stripping local communities (nevermind state governments or Congress - also victims of this, the latter more willingly than the former) and their associated "grassroots" democratic norms of their power and influence. And this inevitably has led to the horrendous nationalization of American politics and the neglect of the local - or even worse, utter contempt for the "provincial." The exponential concentration in recent decades of political, economic, and cultural power and influence in the nation's capital and a few other wealthy (yet deeply unequal in economic and social circumstances and thus, political power) conurbations has only made all of this worse. And it is not only getting worse, but it will continue to get worse. Anyone who cares about anything outside of their own narrow, short-term "self-interest" (really a euphemism for narcissism) should be absolutely horrified.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of "Camelot Era" propaganda on: June 16, 2017, 11:07:11 am
For reference: http://www.thedailybeast.com/how-jackie-kennedy-invented-the-camelot-legend-after-jfks-death
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What are the roots of the current divisiveness of American politics/discourse? on: June 16, 2017, 11:04:52 am
Honestly? A growing dread and sinking conclusion that the country's best days are behind it and that the country is going to the dogs, which is shared by people on both sides of the aisle and has been for decades (at the very least since 9/11).

Have you talked to many liberal Boomers lately? A lot of them seem to think that "the decline" started on November 22, 1963 and has only gotten worse since.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump on Twitter confirms he is under investigation on: June 16, 2017, 11:02:34 am
Wait, Trump is investigating himself?!

Sad!
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why are the boomers considered a more liberal generation then the WW2 gen on: June 14, 2017, 08:20:05 pm
Because Boomers currently dominate America's institutions, and both liberal and conservative Boomers are very much interested in maintaining this narrative (the former for obvious reasons, the latter so that conservative whites of all ages continue to be politically motivated because they're outraged that the year isn't 1955, the Counter-Culture/Cultural Marxists are a thing, and Jimmy Stewart, John Wayne, or Ronald Reagan isn't President).
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 2 dead, several hurt at SF UPS building on: June 14, 2017, 02:08:42 pm
I'm sure this will get as much coverage and controversy as the other shooting today in which only the gunman died.

RIP to the victims, hope there aren't more.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo: James T. Hodgkinson was shooter on: June 14, 2017, 12:05:14 pm
My thoughts and prayers are with all of the victims and their families, not just the flirting-with-White-Nationalists Congressman. This is horrible beyond words regardless of who was shot or who was doing the shooting. And yes, I am sincere about that.

This has no place in any society worth anything.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Theresa May vs. Hillary Clinton: Who's better? on: June 09, 2017, 05:16:47 pm
Clinton (not a deranged fascist)

This too.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Theresa May vs. Hillary Clinton: Who's better? on: June 09, 2017, 05:15:56 pm
It's not a question of who's better, but of who's worse. And the answer is clearly Jim Messina's latest failure.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Itís time to bust the myth: Most Trump voters were not working class. on: June 06, 2017, 04:44:40 pm
It's funny how so many people have forgotten that even during the Republican primaries, Trump's appeal cut across economic and demographic lines among Republican voters.

Any successful candidate is going to have appeal that cuts across demographic lines.  But you've still got some groups that you do better with than others, and it's clear that Trump was putting up his biggest margins against Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio among voters without a college degree.

Quote
But what about education? Many pundits noticed early on that Trumpís supporters were mostly people without college degrees. There were two problems with this line of reasoning, however. First, not having a college degree isnít a guarantee that someone belongs in the working class (think Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg). And, second, although more than 70 percent of Trump supporters didnít have college degrees, when we looked at the NBC polling data, we noticed something the pundits left out: during the primaries, about 70 percent of all Republicans didnít have college degrees, close to the national average (71 percent according to the 2013 Census). Far from being a magnet for the less educated, Trump seemed to have about as many people without college degrees in his camp as we would expect any successful Republican candidate to have.

I don't think that last part is true.  People who actually vote in presidential primary elections tend to have higher education levels than those who don't.  But within that universe of presidential primary voters, Trump was heavily reliant on those without a college degree.  Look at the exit polls in, for example, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Virginia, just to pick three examples:

http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/republican/illinois/exit/
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/republican/massachusetts/exit/
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/republican/virginia/exit/

Trump's support is inversely correlated with education level.  And I could pick any other states with primaries held before all the other candidates dropped out.  It's the same everywhere.  Trump did better in the primaries among voters with lower education levels than those with higher education levels.

Also, in the general election, when you compare Trump voters to Romney voters:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252308.0

Trump did better than Romney among those making less than $50,000 and among those without a college degree, while he did worse than Romney among those making over $100,000 and those with a college degree.

college graduate
dem +2
gop -6
ind +4

not college graduate
dem -7
gop +4
ind +3

under $50k
dem -7
gop +3
ind +4

$50-100k
dem 0 change
gop -3
ind +3

over $100k
dem +3
gop -7
ind +4

The +/- is for the 2016 numbers minus the 2012 numbers, for the presidential nominee of that party.


I think it's possible that "better educated"(gag) voters might be just a bit more reluctant to admit to a pollster their vote for someone like Donald Trump. And just because you voted for Trump in the general election doesn't make you a Republican or even someone who necessarily likes Trump. This can just as easily be framed as being about how Hillary Clinton (and more precisely, the Obama-era Democratic Party - particularly toward the end of his Presidency) is utterly despised by unprecedented numbers of working class Americans (yes, yes, particularly white working class Americans, but note the collapse in turnout within minority communities, the anger of Sanders supporters - who, contrary to some narratives, are indeed disproportionately working class and thus, economically and socially marginalized -, and the defections to third parties across much of the Obama coalition).

It's not a good sign when an ostensibly left-of-center party's demographic trends, political positions, and cultural identity (and perceptions thereof) increasingly favor professionals in the economic, cultural, and political capitals of the country along with the related phenomenon of pressure groups who make having the Correct Stance on "their" issue(s) litmus tests for the party's candidates. This election was in so many ways a consequence of all of these factors.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump shamefully attacks London's Muslim Mayor after terror attack ! on: June 05, 2017, 06:39:54 pm
Yes. In Eygpt most Muslums have deplorable views on society, but do British Muslims?
Maybe not most, but certainly a startling amount.  18% think homosexuality should be legal in the UK.  4% said they sympathize with terrorists.  Sure, 4% is low, but out of 3+million?...and that's just people willing to admit they agree with terrorism on a form.  39% think women should always obey their husband.  33% think it's ok to stone female adulterers.  35% think Jews have too much power in the UK, but that's probably lower than this message board.  Only 34% would contact the police if they knew someone who was a jihadist.

Meh, you can find plenty of polls of any demographic of Americans or any given European countries' citizens showing disturbingly (to say the least) high percentages with (ahem) deplorable opinions. And all of this depends on how questions are asked, and how respondents interpret them, among all the other things that can have significant effects one way or another on poll results. Plus, linguistic and cultural barriers can come into play with much of the world's Muslim population.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Death threats, alleged intimidation cause Democrat to drop Congressional bid on: June 05, 2017, 06:20:39 pm
Another day in Donald Trump's America.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TheIntercept: Russia literally tried to hack the election on: June 05, 2017, 05:59:27 pm
Louise Mensch and Claude Taylor are theorizing she is a putin operative.

Wat.

Well it's increasingly the default reaction to anything seemingly a bit suspicious these days isn't it
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TheIntercept: Russia literally tried to hack the election on: June 05, 2017, 05:56:49 pm

Why go to the intercept and not wapo/nyt?

Credibility?
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump shamefully attacks London's Muslim Mayor after terror attack ! on: June 05, 2017, 12:51:12 am
There's this tendency among many of us (non-Muslim) Westerners to act utterly surprised and appalled that Islam generally isn't like, Enlightenment-era Protestantism or something. Or to pretend that it is, as the generally well-meaning but inane and dangerously simplistic  "Islam is a religion of peace Smiley" memes demonstrate. Somehow we need to get past this view.
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: If you went to college, what did you major/minor in? on: June 04, 2017, 05:10:50 pm
Poli Sci (normal, atlas.txt, dumb mistake, etc.)

I swallowed that garbage about following your dreams.

You and me both, man.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 302


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines