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October 07, 2015, 05:08:53 am
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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who was more of a warmonger? on: October 06, 2015, 05:34:49 pm
They were both pretty bad.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Make five predictions about 2020, and discuss the previous poster's predictions on: October 06, 2015, 05:29:09 pm
ssuperflash's predictions

1. No, President Donald Trump (R) will be the incumbent in 2020.
2. Maybe....stranger things have happened.
3. I dunno...what would be in it for China? And which country? That seems important.
4. I'm not gonna try to predict the unpredictable.
5. That's optimistic. Tongue

1. White liberals in the US will continue to be an increasingly endangered species due to racial polarization and lower birth rates than white conservatives.
2. The media will have moved on from their obsession with Pope Francis.
3. There will be the same (or less) number of ex-Presidents of the United States as there is today.
4. Climate change will have increasingly visible adverse effects.
5. Some advance in neuroscience will be much hyped and exaggerated.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Hillary continue to tout her 'electability' on: October 06, 2015, 05:08:35 pm
Yes, even from someone who has been sceptical of Sanders generally, I can't deny that Hillary having these issues in what should be a cakewalk of a primary, coupled with sloppy errors in politicking that would be much less easily forgiven in a general election, means that the title of being especially "electable" is slipping further from her grasp.

What's weird is that all three of the geriatrics running for Democrats (ignoring losers like o'Measly) have certain flaws that make them very imperfect candidates.

Luckily the GOP establishment seem hellbent on electing the least electable candidate they have left standing (Jeb) so...

There's a real enthusiasm gap in this election. None of the candidates are remotely exciting (except Trump....le sigh), which is a problem in an election without any remotely serious ideas for doing things differently, and the Establishment candidates of both parties are seemingly a lot more comfortable in rooms full of their donors than they are with those strange exotic creatures called American voters. I mean, I expect Jeb! and Hillary to feel a bit entitled based on their histories, but come on.

Consequently, the liberal and conservative activist bases of the respective major parties are mounting insurgent primary challenges (Sanders, Cruz and some of the other GOP candidates, and even Trump to an extent) that I seriously doubt that they (or anyone, outside of a few people on the Internet...) expect to win, but they still want to make the point that the system is so comically/tragically broken that we might as well elect Trump at this point. :/
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Trump and Hillary ahead nationally by Gravis on: October 06, 2015, 10:19:31 am
If Biden (who isn't a candidate, and AFAIK, hasn't decided yet) was not included in these polls,  Hillary's support would go up by at least 15%.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So where has the libertarian Paulite vote gone? on: October 05, 2015, 10:48:36 am
The anti-immigrant and Pat Buchanan-wing of the Paul support group is with Donald Trump and to a smaller extent Ted Cruz, the young college/high school male support is bleeding to Bernie Sanders, and the more religious Paul supporters are now with Ben Carson and Ted Cruz.

Those must be some pretty uninformed libertarians.

Remember most voters (of every candidate) are relatively uninformed compared to election nerds like ourselves.

And Sanders appeals to a lot of the same demographic that (Ron) Paul does. Same general crowd who would be tempted to vote third-party or sit out the election otherwise. It's kind of like how Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan could find a surprising amount of common ground (within the context of American two-party politics, of course).
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What should Trump's next move be? on: October 05, 2015, 10:43:55 am
He should propose a detailed (between 1-2 pages) plan for dealing with Putin.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Trans-Pacific Partnership: Deal Reached on: October 05, 2015, 10:27:54 am
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Better Republican from California on: October 04, 2015, 11:04:24 am
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is opposition to free speech becoming mainstream? on: October 04, 2015, 11:03:13 am
There are already plenty of restrictions on speech. Context is important. But "free speech" absolutists who seem keen on defending the rights of Neo-Nazis and other such groups evidently disagree.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: SJWs - Freedom Fighters or Horrible People? on: October 04, 2015, 10:59:30 am
Marokai's post reminded me of this article in the New Yorker from last month.

Speech nuts, like gun nuts, have amassed plenty of arguments, but they—we—are driven, too, by a shared sensibility that can seem irrational by European standards. And, just as good-faith gun-rights advocates don’t pretend that every gun owner is a third-generation hunter, free-speech advocates need not pretend that every provocative utterance is a valuable contribution to a robust debate, or that it is impossible to make any distinctions between various kinds of speech. In the case of online harassment, that instinctive preference for “free speech” may already be shaping the kinds of discussions we have, possibly by discouraging the participation of women, racial and sexual minorities, and anyone else likely to be singled out for ad-hominem abuse. Some kinds of free speech really can be harmful, and people who want to defend it anyway should be willing to say so.

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: GOP Gubernatorial Election Trend on: October 03, 2015, 05:02:18 pm
Vermont, where there's at least a sentimental love for old school New England Republicans.  A majority of local offices are still held by Republicans in VT (like sheriff).

Somewhat of a tangent, but why do you suppose Vermont's local political life has remained Republican? My hunch is that older residents with deep roots in Vermont are more likely to vote in local elections (Same reason why there are STILL some Dixiecrat holdout counties in the Deep South Tongue ).
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Donald Trump declining in the polls? on: October 03, 2015, 04:52:42 pm
Because he's a joke candidate?
13  General Discussion / History / Re: Opinion of Lord Dunmore on: October 03, 2015, 04:51:56 pm
Sounds like a bona fide literal loyalist FF HP.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chafee warns of “militaristic bellicose” Hillary Clinton foreign policy on: October 03, 2015, 04:50:11 pm
Chafee supports lifting sanctions against Russia in response to its hostilities in Ukraine.

Wow. He can't be serious.

We should be nice to Putin. Smiley
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Most Boring Senator on: October 03, 2015, 04:47:56 pm
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Illegals might elect Clinton on: October 03, 2015, 04:46:52 pm
Just like ACORN and the New Black Panthers elected Obama, amirite?

52% of Republicans said that ACORN stole the 2012 election for Obama. Pretty impressive for an organization that no longer existed.


Some of that has to be trolling pollsters.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: LOL, Jeb's energy plan on: October 03, 2015, 04:46:13 pm
But remember, Jeb is the moderate candidate.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Illegals might elect Clinton on: October 03, 2015, 04:43:49 pm
Just like ACORN and the New Black Panthers elected Obama, amirite?
19  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Which of these tax systems would you favour on: October 03, 2015, 04:42:24 pm
Tax the bad things don't tax the good things

Don't tax and spend. Or borrow and spend. Really, just don't spend anything and don't tax anything either.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Illinois Trend by County: 1976-2012 on: October 03, 2015, 11:35:26 am
On the subject of Milwaukee suburbs vs. Chicago ones: looking closely at Census Factfinder stats, I compared Waukesha County, WI to DuPage County, IL. 

Waukesha has a higher percentage of its workforce in manufacturing (18% to DuPage's 12%) and curiously, a higher proportion of those working in management/business/professional occupations are male (59% to DuPage's 51%). Conversely, fewer women in Waukesha County work in those occupations relative to the population than in DuPage. Might these be some clues?
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather meet the Pope or Brian McLaren? on: October 02, 2015, 06:32:34 pm
(As for liberal christian authors I'd rather get to know the much more radical John Shelby Spong, who actually shaped my beliefs while I was a christian)

I've been to church with Spong (my father is from the town in North Jersey where he lives). My impression of him is that you either find both the man and his theology interesting and engaging, or you find them both boring and obnoxious as hell. I fall into the latter category.

Yeah, I don't think Spong is the best example of liberal Christianity, either. Maybe an example of liberal Christianity taken absurdly far (emphasis on the "liberal" part while de-emphasizing the Christian part Tongue ).
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: George Wallace support outside the south on: October 02, 2015, 11:17:57 am
It wasn't just "white ethnics." There were plenty of white southerners (or rather, descendants of white southerners) living in Northern cities like Detroit, Cleveland, etc. at the time. I suspect that Wallace's support came from some of those voters, as well.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of California on: October 02, 2015, 11:14:22 am
Home, of course.

24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Could you support a military takeover of the US government? on: October 02, 2015, 11:04:56 am
Military dictatorships have such a good track record.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / "America's a republic, not a democracy!" on: October 02, 2015, 10:48:19 am
Kind of moronic, since I don't think anyone seriously argues that the US is a direct democracy.
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