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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / NYT: Osama Bin Laden’s Bookshelf Reflects His Fixation on West on: May 21, 2015, 11:58:16 am
Among the books, periodicals and letters found in Osama bin Laden’s hide-out in Pakistan was a copy of the former C.I.A. officer Michael Scheuer’s 2004 book, “Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror,” which describes the mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks as “the most respected, loved, romantic, charismatic and perhaps able figure in the last 150 years of Islamic history.”

Also in his library was a copy of Michel Chossudovsky’s conspiracy-minded book “America’s ‘War on Terrorism,’ ” which argued that 9/11 was simply a pretext for American incursions into the Middle East, and that Bin Laden was nothing but a boogeyman created by the United States.

These books and others, along with dozens of journal articles and magazine clippings, were found when a Navy SEAL team raided Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in 2011. Declassified on Wednesday, they highlight the Qaeda leader’s fascination with the West. They also illustrate the efforts he made to understand America (the better to fight it) and his need to confirm his own beliefs about its rapacity and corruption (perhaps to justify his terrorist attacks).

2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2.75 million Romney voters will be dead by 2016. on: May 20, 2015, 03:39:52 pm

This implicitly assumes that voters do not tend to become more Pub friendly as they age. When was the last POTUS election where young voters voted more Pub than older ones? If there were no evolving of voters over time, by now that nation would be 70% Dem or something, no?

"If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain"

Winston Churchill

I think that, other than the Boomers, most generations stay fairly similar in terms of voting habit. Gen X'ers were more conservative at age 20 and 30 then 20 or 30 year old Millennials are now.

"Fairly similar" is not the same thing as "totally similar."

Yes, but it's nothing huge like a 10 point difference. If Millennials are, say, 60-40 Democrat now, they'd be closer to 55-45 or 53-47 when they're 65+.

Political party loyalty is something I believe they've linked to being something that sticks with you from when you're younger.

Gore also beat Bush in 65+ in 2000. Ford won younger voters in 1976. New Deal kids were New Deal olds. Boomers were rebels against that kind of government and supported the Republicans.

Betting that older people are naturally Republican is a loser strategy.

What will change for the Republicans, is that if Hillary is elected, and maybe re-elected, and hell, maybe even her successor elected, after 16-20 years of rule, the Democrats will be see as unhip and old. The young people will be Republicans again. That's not happening yet because the Republican Party is still outwardly projecting Old People for Old Values.

You're forgetting the role of race in the equation. Or the fact that the "GI Generation" went through the Great Depression, while the Boomers went through the 60s and 70s (Vietnam, civil rights, Watergate).

Also, people do tend to become more "conservative" in a dispositional sense as they age, but not politically. What matters is the kinds of political events that occur in the formative years of voters, which would be teenage years and young adulthood. Unless you subscribe to some "cycles" superstition, there simply is no way to predict the relevant events that will occur.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politco: Skyrocketing Medicaid signups stir Obamacare fights on: May 19, 2015, 08:40:40 pm
So, the Republican Governors are bragging that under their stewardship, their states have more poor people than was projected in 2009?

But at least they don't have the Medicaid expansion! Because the walk-in uninsured emergency room visits are so much cheaper for everyone...

EDIT: Or maybe their state governments truly can't afford it, because years of cutting rich people's taxes and cutting programs that help everyone (including by definition the poor and the middle class-their disposable incomes rising makes practical economic sense) has destroyed their states' revenue base.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Earned $320k For 20 min speech on: May 19, 2015, 10:40:23 am
Bill Gates and Warren Buffett are billionaires. I guess they're hypocrites for saying they care about poverty.

Right, right. You're not an authentic billionaire unless you grumble about having to pay accountants and lawyers to avoid paying taxes.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why do Republicans worship the owl? on: May 19, 2015, 10:32:22 am
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Texas: Abbott signs law to restrict local fracking regulations on: May 19, 2015, 10:27:52 am
From the same article:

Abbott disputed the notion that the new law is a state overreach. He compared it to numerous suits he filed as attorney general against the federal government, arguing that it falls to the state to protect citizens.

We’re ensuring that people and officials at the local level are not going to be encroaching upon individual liberty or individual rights,” Abbott said.

7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Texas: Abbott signs law to restrict local fracking regulations on: May 19, 2015, 10:18:46 am
AUSTIN — Gov. Greg Abbott signed a law Monday that restricts how municipalities can regulate oil and gas drilling operations within their city limits.

The law is a backlash against a hydraulic fracturing ban passed by Denton voters in November. But it will pre-empt cities from enacting a variety of other ordinances, including regulations on wastewater disposal wells, which numerous studies have tied to earthquakes.

The law, which takes effect immediately, will probably make Denton’s fracking ban impossible to enforce.


I thought Republicans were fans of local government? Huh
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is Protectionism ever appropriate? on: May 18, 2015, 06:33:27 pm
theyre takin our jerbs
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / President Obama proves he is a Man of the People on: May 18, 2015, 12:39:08 pm
President Obama
Hello, Twitter! It's Barack. Really! Six years in, they're finally giving me my own account.

10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Jeb Bush claims gay marriage isn't protected by the Constitution on: May 17, 2015, 09:02:52 pm
Interviewed Sunday by the Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody, Bush was asked whether he believed that gay marriage was a right protected by the U.S. constitution.

I don’t, but I’m not a lawyer, and clearly this has been accelerated at a warp pace,” he said.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule sometime next month on whether gay marriage should be made legal in all 50 U.S. states, and Bush tied the future of the country itself to the issue of the family structure.

"To imagine how we're going to succeed in our country unless we have committed family life, a child-centered family system, is hard to imagine," Bush said. "Irrespective of the Supreme Court ruling, because they're going to decide whatever they decide, and I don't know what they're going to do, we need to be stalwart supporters of traditional marriage."


As usual, Jeb is endearing himself to moderate voters with his "Think of the Children!!!" homophobia.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Mitt Romney on: May 17, 2015, 06:53:52 pm
Not a real person.
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What were Richard Nixon's politics? on: May 17, 2015, 06:51:55 pm

Also, what CrabCake said.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio: As president, I wouldn't pursue a 2-state solution for Israel/Palestine on: May 16, 2015, 12:54:50 pm
I hate how no one seems to understand what the word neoconservative actually means and just treats it as a synonym for "right-wing hawk."

I blame the second Bush Administration. The likes of Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith, as well as those like Bill Kristol and Richard Perle who were not directly associated with the administration but were part of the same political circle, and all of whom were among the most strident supporters for regime change in Iraq...

People think of the Presidency of George W. Bush as epitomizing the policies of a "right-wing hawk" in recent times, and there were actual neoconservatives in prominent positions of power and influence in his administration, so that's the association people have.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker proves the value of a college education on: May 15, 2015, 03:40:12 pm
That 57 quote persisting is the worst. With DC and territories, there were 57 primaries and caucuses that he campaigned in 2008.  He did visit 57 states in that sense.

But where R Barry Soetoro'ss  collge transcripts?!!!!!
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Opinion: GOP should get used to a crazy 2016 field on: May 15, 2015, 03:26:56 pm
Yes, there are tons of stories in the press about this or that candidate raising zillions of dollars. But the truth is, a lot of Republican hopefuls – an unprecedented number – will have the wherewithal to run at least bare-bones campaigns for many months to come. And some of them could help shape the race and its top issues, even if they never climb into the top tier.

Perhaps a single candidate will break out with a big lead by the beginning of fall. But it's more likely that won't happen, which could lead to a series of results in the early 2016 contests that seem less than conclusive.

“In the last election, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied in Iowa with 24.6 percent of the vote,” notes another GOP strategist. “You're going to have a deeper field this time – I would bet you anything that 20 percent wins Iowa, and maybe that 18 percent wins.

If a losing candidate has enough money for gas – especially if he's getting a SuperPAC boost – why pull out when the winner only got 18 percent of the vote? Likewise, Romney won the New Hampshire primary with 39.3 percent of the vote. This time, “It looks to me like 25 percent could win New Hampshire – maybe 22 percent,” notes the strategist.

16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Any boll weevil/Bourbon Democrats here? on: May 15, 2015, 01:48:06 pm
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Any "Rockefeller Republicans" here? on: May 15, 2015, 01:45:56 pm
does anyone else think that White New Englanders are AWESOME?

Especially if they are Republicans who belong to moderately liberal Protestant denominations!
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Any "Rockefeller Republicans" here? on: May 15, 2015, 01:42:59 pm
Any LBJ Democrats here???
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: B.B. King dead at 89. on: May 15, 2015, 12:48:12 pm
Long live the King. RIP.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / House easily passes Iran review bill on: May 14, 2015, 08:54:35 pm
The House overwhelmingly passed legislation on Thursday that would allow Congress to review and potentially reject a nuclear deal with Iran.

The measure now heads to President Barack Obama’s desk for his signature. Just 19 Republicans voted against the bill, despite opposition from some House conservatives who argued that the bill was not strong enough. The final vote was 400-25.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/house-passes-bill-review-iran-deal-117969.html#ixzz3aATwEKzj
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: One thing I've noticed on: May 14, 2015, 07:31:15 pm
TIL being middle-class and growing up in suburbia makes you gay.

lol, touche. I guess what I meant by that was that, at least in America (where a lot of this forum's members are from), the more "socially liberal" youngs tend to be from suburban (or just urban in general) areas, and that socially liberal young people are more likely than non-socially liberal young people (or even the population as a whole) to identify as gay. Is that so implausible? Tongue
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: One thing I've noticed on: May 14, 2015, 05:12:16 pm
Yes it makes perfect sense because those forums are both places dedicated to the discussion of a single thing. Aspergers and other autism spectrum disorders are characterized by "restricted and repetitive interests". A self-selection bias exists because one is much more likely to find and join a forum dedicated to political maps or alternative history fiction if they are obsessed with those topic(s) as one of those "restricted and repetitive interests".

The real question is how come this forum has so many gays, I have no explanation for that

People who are on the internet a lot tend to explore their sexuality a bit, for starters. Also people are more willing to admit their sexual orientation anonymously on an internet forum than in real life.

Could also be that a lot of gay people are politically active within both liberal and more radical politics.

Plus,  this forum disproportionately attracts a younger demographic drawn largely from socially liberal, upper-middle class suburban families.

Also, this forum is very white. And very male. The latter is perhaps more easily explained by the self-selection bias that Bacon King mentioned (because ASD = less proficient social skills,  especially in mixed company, almost by definition Tongue), while the former speaks more to the class biases of this forum.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Current Republican Governors and 2020/2024 Presidential Prospects on: May 14, 2015, 03:29:01 pm
There are 31 Republicans currently serving as Governors of states. Out of that 31, who are the top 5 that you think are "most likely" to be credible presidential candidates in the next election where there's (aside from 2016) where there's no Republican incumbent? (So either 2020 or 2024).

24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: When will Democrats win back the House? on: May 14, 2015, 03:11:04 pm
2022, yeah.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Estimating Religion from Census Data on: May 14, 2015, 01:32:37 pm
Very curious to see where this goes! Though, be careful with ancestry; to take just one example,  German-Americans in the Milwaukee region are different from German-Americans in Missouri, who are different from German-Americans in Texas or Pennsylvania or Oregon or...

Also, watch out for "Irish" ancestry in the South and (much of) Appalachia. Not gonna be like Irish ancestry in New England or NYC. Let's leave that at that.  Tongue
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