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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Today is the 1/8th point of Trump's term on: Today at 04:51:23 pm
Six months down, and a mountain of s*** to go.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump 7/19 NYT interview on: Today at 04:28:19 pm
This was an amusing but also odd slight at Baltimore:

Quote
The president also expressed discontent with Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein, a former federal prosecutor from Baltimore. When Mr. Sessions recused himself, the president said he was irritated to learn where his deputy was from. “There are very few Republicans in Baltimore, if any,” he said of the predominantly Democratic city.

Well yeah, Baltimore is a cesspool.

Says the guy living in Cleveland
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Can Mueller oust Trump? on: Today at 04:26:30 pm
It is not established whether the President can be indicted for a crime without first being impeached and removed. Arguably, the President might have sovereign immunity while President. The issue is not heavily litigated. However, the U.S. typically only applies sovereign immunity to government entities themselves and officials acting in their official capacity (which would not cover potential illegal behavior before Trump became President but would cover, e.g., firing Comey). Thus, it is likely that the President does not have sovereign immunity and at least in theory can be indicted and prosecuted without an impeachment.

Even if the President is indicted, he would not be automatically removed (just like any other politician). Typically, politicians resign after being indicted, but this is not always the case and not required by law. Following the indictment, he would eventually go on trial in an ordinary criminal court and, if convicted, potentially go to prison. I don't think there are any examples of a U.S. politician continuing in office from prison, but I'd be glad to be corrected. However, there is still nothing that would require the President to be removed merely because he was imprisoned. An imprisoned President would surely also potentially be subject to Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, whereby the Vice President and a majority of the executive officers could declare the President unable to discharge his powers as President and have the Vice President replace him as President. However, removal under the 25th Amendment is not automatic on imprisonment (or any other impairment short of death).

There is also the matter of pardons. It is unclear whether the President's pardon power extends to himself. It is certainly possible that the President could pardon himself, and a court may hold that to be a constitutional exercise of his office.

So, the short answer is that Mueller cannot remove Trump on his own without action by Trump himself (to resign), by Pence and the Cabinet (to remove Trump under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment) or by Congress (to impeach and remove Trump), although Mueller may be able to send him to prison (with a proper court verdict, etc.).

The DOJ Office of Legal Counsel issued an opinion that the President cannot pardon himself: https://www.justice.gov/file/20856/download.

The date on this is interesting: August 5, 1974 -- three days before Nixon resigned.

Hardly coincidental
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black judge removes Mississippi flag with Confederate emblem from court on: Today at 04:24:40 pm
Traitor.

Yes, the Confederacy and it's leaders were all traitors. And pretty despicable ones, too.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black judge removes Mississippi flag with Confederate emblem from court on: Today at 04:24:17 pm
Carlos Moore... Well I agree with the sentiment but his credibility is...

Quote
Moore said he believes God has a plan to change the flag, including the 2008 election of Barack Obama as the first African-American president and Obama's choosing U.S. District Judge Carlton Reeves, who is black. Reeves will hear the flag lawsuit, although Moore said he hasn't spoken to the judge. Moore also mentioned the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia as part of the divine plan.

"When we get that fifth liberal progressive on the court, after Judge Reeves takes it down, it's going to stay down," Moore said.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-sc-lawmaker-remove-rebel-emblem-from-mississippi-2016mar08-story.html

Oh dear. God has a plan behind my judicial agenda. It's like the liberal Roy Moore.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black judge removes Mississippi flag with Confederate emblem from court on: Today at 04:23:21 pm

LOL, this gave me a chuckle.

Pictures are hung, people are hanged, folks.

Speak for yourself.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump says he wouldn't have picked Sessions if he knew he'd recuse himself on: Today at 04:21:37 pm
I assumed it was a reference to Bilbo Baggins (hobbit) given Sessions's height.

I never knew sessions was a bit of a runt. Though at five foot seven and a fraction I consider that term relative. Tongue
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kris Kobach: "We may never know if Clinton won the popular vote" on: Today at 04:18:00 pm
Technically nobody won the popular vote since nobody won more then 50 percent of the vote .

Shut the f**k up, beep boop.

Oh come on man. You have to admit it did walk a nice tightrope between pedantic and funny
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 43 Senators Sign on to Bill to Outlaw Support for Israel Boycotts on: Today at 04:16:32 pm
Ye gods. Regardless of what one thinks of Hamas or Israel this is grossly unconstitutional. This wouldn't pass legal muster if it similarly criminalized expressing support for Isis
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: (Thread) Laws that are horses**t on: Today at 12:47:40 pm
In PA, motorized vehicles can't be sold on Sundays.

Is that actually still enforced?
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump says he wouldn't have picked Sessions if he knew he'd recuse himself on: Today at 12:33:34 pm

Is that a reference to Mississippi segregationist Senator Theodore Bilbo? If so, well played sir!

Well, on second thought, it's not entirely fair to sessions. For all his region racism Bilbo actually enacted some Progressive measures as Governor like compulsory school education. No one would ever accuse sections of having done anything remotely Progressive throughout his career.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Jr./Russian lawyer meeting: Jr. knew info was part of Russian Gov effort on: Today at 12:29:52 pm
Breaking: Trump Jr. and Manafort will testify publicly before the Senate Judiciary panel next Wednesday.

According to the NYT, Manafort was in debt to pro-Russia interests for as much as $17 million before he joined the Trump campaign.  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/us/politics/paul-manafort-russia-trump.html

Wow !!
This is some serious s**t !
With that much money owed to the Russians, he could have easily been "influenced" by the Russkie Government.
Someone please post Nuclear Elmo.

Quote
Financial records filed last year in the secretive tax haven of Cyprus, where Paul J. Manafort kept bank accounts during his years working in Ukraine and investing with a Russian oligarch, indicate that he had been in debt to pro-Russia interests by as much as $17 million before he joined Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign in March 2016.

The money appears to have been owed by shell companies connected to Mr. Manafort’s business activities in Ukraine when he worked as a consultant to the pro-Russia Party of Regions. The Cyprus documents obtained by The New York Times include audited financial statements for the companies, which were part of a complex web of more than a dozen entities that transferred millions of dollars among them in the form of loans, payments and fees.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/us/politics/paul-manafort-russia-trump.html

Nothing to see here folks! Bad optics but no legal violations. Mostly media driven. Just politics as always, etc. etc. / The Usual Suspects
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump says he wouldn't have picked Sessions if he knew he'd recuse himself on: Today at 12:20:32 pm
Trump has absolutely no comprehension of the concept of conflict of interest.

Sure he does, but it's not the one most people use.  For Trump, something is either in his interest or else it's a conflict.

Nice! Cheesy
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump accepted Putin's assurances that Russia didn't do any hacking in election on: Today at 12:19:56 pm
We should have good relations with Mr. Putin. Unlike some folks, Putin respects democracy and is willing to accept the outcomes of elections that he doesn't win.

Speaking of trolling.....
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Can Mueller oust Trump? on: Today at 12:16:45 pm
If one interprets this question is whether or not he has the Constitutional and legal authority to oust Trump, then obviously the answer is no. If one takes this question as I THINK it was intended to ask whether or not his investigatory Powers could ultimately lead to Trump's downfall, that I think the answer is a distinct possible, especially considering he's expanding it to Trump's notoriously Beyond sketchy personal financial dealings, and the inevitable connections to Russia.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Cordray? on: Today at 11:15:59 am
Off the top of my head, I wonder if Pilich might abandon her bid to run for Treasurer instead, especially if Cordray doesn't run and possibly bump  one of the stronger grooming at Oriole candidates down to run for a lower State office. It sounds like there's some weakness in the current potential candidates, and the impression I get is Democrats at least appreciate her doing as relatively well against Mandel as she did for years ago. It's probably not too late to switch gears, and Lord knows she have a better chance than she's doing running for governor right now. Thoughts?
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Don Jr. "miserable," wants Trump presidency to end on: Today at 10:47:55 am
I still think that Stephanie Cegielski was telling the truth when she said that Trump didn't actually plan on getting as far as he did, and I think the rest of the Trump clan felt the same way. But then suddenly momentum built up faster than they were expecting and the Trump ego took over, and they were all in way over their heads.

I think this makes it especially tough for Jr. and Eric, who don't seem to have any interest in political stuff at all. They just want to continue their jet-setting, rich-guy lifestyle, and politics and the actual requirement to at least appear to have some sort of conscience is really cramping their style.

I don't particularly feel sorry for them, as they could have stepped aside at any point earlier in the game, but I do feel a tiny bit bad for them. They're like toddlers who have only known one way of life (and always gotten ice cream whenever they wanted), and now things have changed dramatically, including people slapping their hands when they go for the ice cream. They grew up thinking the world worked how they wanted it to, and they're learning that not everything is the same outside of their little rich-guy world.

Never read that article before. Cultists can simpler all they want about "disgruntled former employee", but she has proven dead right on every facet of Trump as president.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump says he wouldn't have picked Sessions if he knew he'd recuse himself on: Today at 10:33:29 am
Trump has absolutely no comprehension of the concept of conflict of interest.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Capito/Collins/Murkowski against MTP on full repeal on: Today at 10:31:37 am
Of course this is dead, folks. This is simply a chance for so-called moderates to cast a meaningless no vote so you can tell the people back home how they stood up for their Medicare Dash Dash when the chips were not down, but still Dash Dash and for the True Believer faction to similarly vote Yes so they can avoid a primary Challenge from even crazier and meaner people.

Now, we move on to efforts at baking the tax structure even more regressive. Oh yay

Just wanted to reiterate this in light of all the ongoing handwringing......
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: July 19, 2017, 09:28:21 pm
Look, I know it's hard for incumbents to actually lose reelection but is Trump really more than likely to do so seeing he has a 55% disapproval in a state like Utah?

Just to nitpick - Trump is uniquely unsuited for a state like Utah, and even with such a poor image among Mormons, he still did quite well. However, if by October 2020 he had the same approval ratings he does now and was up against a challenger that was about as popular as the average challenger would be, then he most likely would lose, and probably not by a hair either. In an election where his opponent wasn't almost as hated as he was, his "win" most likely would have been a loss with a margin in between Romney and McCain.

If he were to have today's job approval rating on Election Day 2020, then yes, he'd presumably lose.  But I don't think the historical record shows that there's any correlation between job approval rating in a president's first year and his job approval rating three years later.


But here's the thing. Has Trump given an ounce of indication at anytime during this first six months of his presidency that he has the ability to change his behavior or temperament in a way that translates into picking up greater support Beyond his hardcore cultist base? I'd say the answer is a hardcore no. He has zero ability to triangulate the Way Clinton did, or do anything other than continuing to repeat his mistakes and arrogance that turns the vast majority of Voters off. I think a substantial number of his supporters expected him to act more mature and gracefully dash dash say nothing of displaying signs of flirting with treason Dash Dash once he became president. That has not happened, and frankly it appears never will.

With that in mind and the fact Trump's disapproval rating is in the dumpster despite a bull economy and no foreign entanglements, what route can he take to realistically solidify enough support for reelection? It's not just that these are a reflection of his first year popularity ratings. It's a likely reflection of his popularity throughout his presidency, but subject only to dropping if the economy or International affairs go south.

Like I said, the premise of your argument is that a president's popularity at the end of his first term is based on the actions of the president himself.  And I'm just not sure to what extent that's true.  He might become more popular by 2020 just because of a good economy, for example, even if he doesn't change his behavior at all.  You mention the fact that the economy's already good right now, yet he's still unpopular.  But do the voters give presidents full credit or blame for the economy when he's just a few months into his term in the same way that they do after four years?  I'm not sure.  I'd say it's an open question.

Other factors that might allow for some rebound in popularity even if Trump’s own behavior doesn’t change at all:

1) Trump and the GOP move on from agenda items like health reform to other topics, which aren’t as politically toxic.  “Obamacare repeal” is something that made short term political sense for the GOP to advocate, but was quite politically poisonous to pursue once they actually had unified control of government.  But they were boxed in, because they ran on it.  Once you’re done with the agenda items that you’re forced to address because you ran on them, you can move on to agenda items that make more political sense for a party that’s actually in power.  Not that the GOP has a terribly popular set of policies ready to go in general, but not much can be worse than their health reform fiasco.

2) Trump himself won’t learn, but people around him might.  That is, GOP leaders in Congress and the saner members of Trump’s Cabinet and staff might get a better handle on how to work around Trump’s craziness, and thus better keep him out of political trouble.

3) Outrage fatigue / people stop being shocked.  Some of the personality and policy problems people have with Trump might become less salient as times go on, because it becomes more “normal” in people’s minds.  And thus, he starts getting judged more on economic fundamentals than he does now.  On the policy front, I remember some of the early outrage against Clinton over cultural issues like gays in the military, or against Bush over environmental regulations being loosened.  There was political whiplash that occurred largely just because of the party in the White House changing.  But soon enough, these things faded, and people got used to the new POTUS.

4) Rally around the flag event, like a terrorist attack.  This could go a number of ways, but even if Trump doesn’t know how to handle a crisis, it’s not hard to imagine scenarios for a crisis that actually boosts his popularity.

5) Dems win the House in 2018.  If the Dems win the House, then Trump can’t pass anything, which is probably good for him politically.  And there’s also the possibility of Dem. overreach, and more opportunity to villainize the other side, which could make Trump look not quite as bad in comparison.

6) Trump gets a Democratic opponent in 2020.  Similar to #5, but if you have someone running against you from the other party, then you enter into a zero sum game of popularity, which doesn’t quite exist right now, because there is no single figure that Trump is facing off against.  If Team GOP can villainize, say, 2020 Dem. presidential nominee Elizabeth Warren enough, then Trump’s own job approval might get a slight boost because of the contrast.


1) just doesn't seem likely. Of all the Democratic proposals and policies to run against, can anyone think of one that would should have been more of a slam-dunk winner than Obamacare? If they screwed that up so completely, it's hard to see how massive tax cuts for the rich or other policies are going to engender much more favor. Trump ran is a populist, and he's governing as a plutocrat. It's not going to work. At least not politically.

2) one would think after 6 months that there would have been even one iota of improvement on that front. There hasn't been. To think that anyone around Trump will be able to control his Bonafide craziness, immaturity, and outbursts stemming straight from his id is contrary to everything we have seen not only since he was inaugurated, but for his entire year running for president as well. It's possible they might be able to moderate him ever so slightly, but to no meaningful degree to where he even approximates presidential Behavior as anyone has ever conceived it previously.

3) I think we are already there. Frankly we were there before election day. He's dug himself in and yes his hardcore called his supporters will in fact defend him if he shoots someone on 5th Avenue or the pee tape emerges along with video of him literally kissing Putin's ring. That doesn't exactly mean anyone is going to stop thinking differently of him. A****** fatigue merely means he may not go any lower, not that he's going to make up lost ground. As far as his being given credit for a booming economy, that hardly helped Obama in 2014, although I realized there was still much of a hangover from the Great Recession.

4) this one I agree with. It has to be perfectly timed before Trump's inevitable over-reaction comes back and bites him in the ass and reinforces that he's an untrustworthy Loose Cannon. The scary thing is I have absolutely zero doubt that he and his innermost cronies would go out of their way to provoke an international incident if he thought he needed it to secure reelection. Other politicians have used such incidents, but Trump would go as far as creating one. After all, it's not his family's blood that will be spilled in the process. He is, after all, a complete bastard.

5) this one has some Merit that I didn't consider. Clinton did wonders running against the extremism of the Gingrich Congress. Never underestimate the Democratic party's ability to f*** things up. Nevertheless, on the issue of policies such as health care, immigration, taxes, Etc, so far the Democrats seem to be on The Winning Side of public opinion. Bill Clinton ran the tables on a moderate populist message against gingrich's Neo Dickens version of America, and scored a reasonably easy reelection as a result. Still, if there's one thing that could help Trump somewhat at least with moderate Republicans who've given up on him is to run against Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. I still seriously question whether that will be sufficient to dig him out of the very deep hole he is currently in, though.

6) who in the Democratic party could he possibly run against as unpopular and with as much baggage as Hillary Clinton? I would argue that Elizabeth Warren at her worst still is it nearly as bad because she doesn't carry Decades of untrustworthiness and perceived corruption. He is hardly the best candidate that Democrats could nominate in my humble opinion, but I can't conceive of how Trump could realistically run against anyone nearly as flawed as Clinton.

In short, based on everything we have seen for the last 18 months from Trump and his so-called organization, he would probably need to rely on a terrorist attack or similar rally round the flag incident to know Talib bump his approvals up, and that's only likely to be short-term at best. Otherwise he may have a shot at running heavily against a democratic Congress, or even one house controlled by the Democrats. But that will require missteps along the level of, well, the Democratic Party.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Don Jr. "miserable," wants Trump presidency to end on: July 19, 2017, 09:07:42 pm
LOL.
He is especially going to hate life, when he is sitting in jail.
Why do you have to be so mean to him? He was trying to help his father.

This has got to be a joke post.

It is, right?
Santander is one of our most transparent trolls.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Puerto Rico moves ahead with Tennesse Plan, appoints Congressmen. on: July 19, 2017, 09:06:49 pm
While the Republicans control Congress this will go nowhere. And wild Puerto Rico is a fiscal disaster they will have sufficient coverage to claim opposition on something other than political and racial grounds.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Vox: Baltimore police officer accidentally recorded himself planting drugs on: July 19, 2017, 09:03:59 pm
A Baltimore police officer accidentally recorded himself planting drugs at a crime scene

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/19/15999806/baltimore-police-body-camera

Quote
It’s not especially rare to hear stories of a police officer abusing his power. But it is pretty rare to see a story in which the cop actually records himself doing it.

That’s what seemed to happen in Baltimore recently, when a police officer appeared to accidentally record himself planting drugs at a crime scene. In the January 2017 video, reported by Fox Baltimore, officer Richard Pinheiro puts a bag of pills under some trash in an alley. He then walks to the street. He then switches on his camera, walks back to the alley, and acts like he just found the drugs for the first time.

Here’s the crucial mistake that Pinheiro apparently made: He apparently didn’t realize that body cameras often save the last 30 seconds of footage before they’re manually activated. So all of that preparation for his big faux discovery was caught on tape.

“I’m going to check here,” Pinheiro says as the camera is activated. “Hold on.” He then walks to the scene and acts like he’s looking around. Finally, he comes to the spot where he put the pills, picks them up, and says, “Yo!” The other officers appear to play along with his fake discovery, as if this is all routine and normal.

The defendant connected to the drugs was set to go trial this week. But according to BuzzFeed, the prosecutor dropped the charges after the defendant’s public defender discovered and saw the video. (Although, in a troubling development, the prosecutor apparently used Pinheiro as an eyewitness in a separate case — even after learning of his misconduct in the video.)

Video included at the top of the article.

The last line of that blurb is the most astonishing. And disappointing.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Joy Reid (2008) - Hillary is an insane racist liar who wants to destroy the Dems on: July 19, 2017, 02:14:18 pm
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is Trump the most hated president in U.S. history? on: July 19, 2017, 02:11:48 pm
In modern history- Bush was easily , as he was hated universally more by the democrats (trump still does well among blue collar Dems) and even hated more by the left (just look at DU threads from 2003-2008 or tyt from 2006-2008) .

Yeah. The antiwar left hated Bush with a vicious paranoia far beyond anything Resistance Twitter has come up with yet. Perhaps that will have changed after a few years, we'll see.

Paranoia implies they weren't actually out to do you harm. Wink

Sure. But I'm talking about the widespread conspiracy theories on the left during the mid 00s that Bush did 9/11 to start a war in Iraq for the oil and funnel the profits to Haliburton. I also remember the constant rumours from 05-07 that Bush about to bomb Iran etc..

Plus internationally, I'm pretty sure nothing Trump can do will create anything equivalent to the wave of anti-Americanism that the invasion of Iraq unleashed across the globe.

First, while the goal wasn't necessarily two funnel profits to Haliburton - - that was just a happy coincidence Dash Dash the war wouldn't have been started if the same matters occurred in a non oral Rich region like South Sudan.

Secondly, I wish that were the case, but frankly the only thing stopping him from making a horrible horrible decision internationally is being distracted by domestic concerns and investigations plus the lack of a spark to give his bad need your decision making an opportunity to f*** things up.
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