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September 20, 2014, 11:05:36 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why no Democrat running in Alabama? on: September 04, 2014, 03:33:39 pm
It's Alabama
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: September 04, 2014, 03:31:53 pm
Kobach has ruled Taylor stays on the ballot. Hasen examines the legalities here.

Lawsuits and appeals will likely follow.
78  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: State Representative to Utah Legislature: hospitals can be dangerous.... on: September 04, 2014, 12:51:46 pm
What a moron.
79  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: LA judge upholds state SSM ban on: September 04, 2014, 12:50:39 pm
Call me a pessimist, but SCOTUS isn't going to rule in our favor here. This is an extremely partisan, activist  court that will rule yet again based on the GOP platform: that there's no constitutional right to marriage and gay marriage becomes illegal again in California, Iowa, Massachusetts, and all the other states who had their bans struck down.

Republicans would be happy to surrender on this issue and stop talking about it ASAP.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: September 04, 2014, 01:00:04 am
Hopefully Weiland in South Dakota follows suit and drops out leaving Pressler to battle Rounds.

Vice-versa is more likely.

Re: Kansas, evveryone knows Brownback and Roberts will be easily re-elected.. DUH!! Roll Eyes
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will Tom Corbett's wife vote for? on: September 04, 2014, 12:30:17 am
Ok, this is starting to get old.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Future for Wendy Davis on: September 04, 2014, 12:28:18 am
Head of Emily's List or some pro-choice group if she leaves politics. Otherwise run for re-election to her senate seat and, if successful, maybe a run for Ft. Worth mayor down the road. If successful there maybe she can eye a statewide down-ballot race in the next decade. She's young and has plenty of time, though given Ft. Worth and (especially) Texas's politics, her path of least resistance for maximum gain would likely be leaving elective office.

Either way, periodic gigs at MSNBC are likely in her future.

She can't run for her senate seat Badger. Her seat is up and she cannot seek 2 offices at the same thing. (I'm not sure though)

Per wikipedia she won in 2008 and was reelected in 2012, but her last opponent is running for the seat again in 2014.

Huh What gives?
83  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Who is guilty of felony murder in these scenarios? on: September 03, 2014, 08:42:55 pm
BRTD, do you actually know of statutes in states that would allow all 4 to be prosecuted, or are you just basing these scenarios on what you think felony murder statutes say? If it's the former, I'm curious to know those states.

Clearly the latter, I'd say.
84  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The t_host1 Institute of Comedy on: September 03, 2014, 09:42:39 am
Credit where credit is due.


Your post sounds like it's straight out of 1994 when people would actually buy into this authoritarianism. Sounds like my high school right after the 'Footloose' era.

I don't know what you're talking about. 2014 is nothing like 1994. It's not like Full House will be on TV or Dumb and Dumber in theaters. Or the Republicans might win back the Senate.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Making what is "bad" not bad? on: September 03, 2014, 09:37:40 am

They are guilty of causing more harm than good. If you know something will cause you to stand out in a negative context...why do it?

You should ask yourself this before every post.
86  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Democratic Congressional Candidate: Republicans Are Worse Than ISIS on: September 03, 2014, 09:35:14 am
To be fair, don't we all hear this line when some GOP sacrificial lamb, or at worst some committeeman or back-bencher state rep, says something execrable? For that matter, can anyone truly judge even a substantial portion of the GOP by Steve Stockman or Louis Gohmert? Granted, sometimes it's by more notable individuals, but still, the rule of don't judge an entire party by one dillweed's obnoxious statement should apply equally, no?
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Arkansas? on: September 03, 2014, 09:28:44 am
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Tampa Bay Times: Scott opening lead on: September 03, 2014, 09:24:53 am
The fact even Krazen hasn't bothered to chime in about excellent news, dominating, or thrashing should tell us all we need to know about this poll's cross-tabs. Tongue
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31 on: September 03, 2014, 09:18:56 am
^ Isn't it true that the 2012 state legislative elections didn't even take place under the new maps?

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_State_Senate_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

Quote
The Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission approved its final compromise maps on April 12, 2012, following the rejection of the first set by the state Supreme Court. Because they were passed after the signature filing deadline, the 2012 elections were held using the old maps with the new maps going into effect for the 2014 elections.[3]

Do we know if these new maps are more or less gerrymandered than the old ones?

Tough to say. It APPEARS from Ballotpedia (fwiw) that there was some kind of of judicial intervention?

At any rate, Ballotpedia lists 5 races the Democrats are targeting this year; 3 in suburban Philly, and two in the Allentown area. Of them one (Dist 26) is an open seat with a +3 D PVI. Two other districts (6 & 16) have +4 D PVIs, but also long-time GOP incumbents who won by substantial margins in 2010 (though one under 60%).

The other two races don't have their PVI mentioned, though one is a rematch from 2010 where the Democrat challenger lost by almost 30 points, and the other is an open seat around Monroe and northern Northampton counties where the Republican candidate is a long-time state rep from Monroe.

I'd like to hear Phil's take on the races, but Dems seem challenged to take the necessary second seat. No idea off hand about the State House prospects.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Future for Wendy Davis on: September 03, 2014, 08:34:31 am
Head of Emily's List or some pro-choice group if she leaves politics. Otherwise run for re-election to her senate seat and, if successful, maybe a run for Ft. Worth mayor down the road. If successful there maybe she can eye a statewide down-ballot race in the next decade. She's young and has plenty of time, though given Ft. Worth and (especially) Texas's politics, her path of least resistance for maximum gain would likely be leaving elective office.

Either way, periodic gigs at MSNBC are likely in her future.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Your current governor on: September 03, 2014, 08:16:49 am
Gov. Chris Christie (R). He's cut taxes, due to the Democratic-controlled legislature, and some property taxes have gone down, it's been going up lately.

Huh How are the tax cuts "due" to the Democratic legislature? The leg obviously passed cuts, but an a non-Jerseyite I'm curious why you seem to indicate the Democratic leg was the impetus for tax cuts?
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Tom Wolf's Margin on: September 03, 2014, 08:04:28 am
Probably mid to high teens. Closer to mid if forced to guess.

Note to OP: there's a typo in the poll's third choice (should be "20-30%", not 20-10%).
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 03, 2014, 08:01:19 am
Cuomo actually said today that the only number that matters is 50%. Oof. Kinda like the only poll that matters is Election Day.

Wow, are his internals that bad?

https://twitter.com/eorden/status/506862415502655490

They're pulling out de Blasio to wax rhapsodic about conservadem Hochul tomorrow. Fun!

I wish de Blasio was supporting Teachout. It would be a lot better for his policy goals (if she were to win, but I guess he thinks that's impossible).

Or did so a couple months ago, just like everyone else.

In 20/20 hindsight, the WPF endorsement was Teachout's for the taking if De Blasio had theoretically endorsed her. With his active backing she'd be in 40+% range for the Dem primary easy, and Wu would be downright favored. It still likely wouldn't be enough, and not worth it to De Blasio causing a civil war in the party just for what would likely be one huge warning shot off Cuomo's bow. He wants to be a good party guy to later become gov or senator himself.

But boy it would've made for an even more interesting election. Grin

94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31 on: September 03, 2014, 12:21:28 am
Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

That seems a bit optimistic. From what I've seen, the Senate looks to be tilt/lean R and the House looks to be likely/safeish R

Don't dems only need a 2 seat pickup in the Senate (27-23 split)?
95  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Opinion of Jury Nullification on: September 02, 2014, 11:31:28 pm
The question as to whether or not juries should be informed of it strikes me as pretty silly. The fact that jurors have this right should be blatantly obvious to anyone.

And I'd have to say I'm for it, since there are certain laws (the most obvious of course being marijuana) that I simply would not be willing to ever convict someone of as a matter of conscience. So it'd be kind of hypocritical for me to say that's wrong.

If you were selected to serve on a jury for a marijuana case, and you were asked something to the effect of  "Do you have any beliefs that would prevent you from making a decision based solely on the law?" (which is standard practice in Mississippi), what would your response be?

I'd state my opinions on marijuana and would almost certainly be removed from the pool.

As well you should be, or any other trial you have a passionate pre-ordained belief about the subject that would keep you from following the law.

All you "progressive" fans of jury nullification need to re-read To Kill A Mockingbird.

That's kind of a logical fallacy equivalent to saying use of violence is always morally the same whether it's to assault an unrelated person or in self-defense.

There's times when the law is completely unjust or applying it in this circumstances would be where there has to be some sort of recourse against it. Good examples are that woman in New Jersey with the concealed carry permit from another state not valid in NJ, or the case mentioned above with the kids being charged with murder of their friend.

If you have such strong views a law is immoral or the like, you shouldcampaign to change it, but NOT serve on a jury where your oath is to follow and uphold the law.

Again, seeing so called "progressives" defending a practice fiercely loved by every far-right freeman/militia ultra tea-party type is amusing to say the least.
96  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you be disappointed if your daughter was dating the previous poster? on: September 02, 2014, 10:49:34 pm
No for every single previous poster, and likewise for any future Forum poster. Tongue
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Special Prosecutor investigating Kathleen Kane's office. on: September 02, 2014, 09:12:21 pm
Special Prosecutor investigating Kane's office - http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics&id=273355891&

But Kane has nothing to worry about. Some kids on their computers said so.

No, what some kids on their computer said is Wolf has nothing to worry about over this.

They're right.

Wrong. Several said the Kane scandal was just "partisan hackery," overblow and not real trouble for her. I'm not posting this as a connection to the Gubernatorial race just as their comments were made separate of the race as well.

Meh, I seem to remember most of the response (though yes, not all) being to JJ's hackery that this may unite Republicans and give Corbett a shot, yadda yadda.

But we're probably debating semantics as Kane's challenge to Toomey is clearly DOA, and at this rate she'll be in serious trouble to simply survive re-election.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Corbett win less counties than Santorum 2006? on: September 02, 2014, 09:07:12 pm
No. As was mentioned, there is more polarity now than there would have been 8 years ago. I think Wolf will win by the same margin or a tad bit more, but Wolf won't do as well in the western part of the state as Casey.

2006:
   

2014: Assuming a 20-point loss when all is said and done:


As fast trending Republican as it is, there's no way Cambria stays (Atlas) blue if Wolf wins by even 10, let alone 20.

Other than Pike County likely flipping for the opposite reason, and maybe even Elk County giving one last hurrah for the Dems, this map is about right in a 20 point Wolf blowout.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31 on: September 02, 2014, 06:18:09 pm
I don't know why the Obama team wants to visit PA do they think he's still popular there?

Who says he is? Maybe a fundraising dinner which tends to garner less publicity/hackles than a full-bore campaign rally?
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anyone interested in a poster-size map? on: September 02, 2014, 06:15:53 pm
Depends on which poster it's the size of.

Xahar? Not enough value for the dollar.

Bushie? Not enough room in my library.
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