Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 19, 2014, 12:32:58 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 403
76  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which of these best describes Jimmy Carter? on: November 03, 2014, 02:10:25 pm
Option 1, I mean c'mon.
77  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Better 20th century Tory Prime Minister on: November 03, 2014, 02:08:54 pm
Whatever you think about either politician, I can't come up with a justifiable reason not to pick Churchill.
78  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have sided with in the Hard Hat Riot of 1970? on: November 03, 2014, 02:08:14 pm
Ummmm.....regardless of which side's political and foreign policy views one supported here, surely it isn't missed that the pro-war counter-protesters unilaterally beat up peaceful protesters with steel toed boots and even rebar? The persons doing so were committing misdemeanor assault at the minimum, possibly felonious assault/aggravated riot.

"Rioting construction workers also attacked buildings near City Hall. They ripped the Red Cross and Episcopal Church flags down from a flag pole at nearby Trinity Church. One group invaded two nearby Pace University buildings, smashing lobby windows with clubs and crowbars and beating up students."

So criminal damaging/vandalism as well. On a church no less.

This riot had little to do about politics or the Vietnam War; it was an exercise in organized thuggery, and anyone here should be ashamed to say they would've sided with the criminals here.
79  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Just call me Dukey, Esquire on: November 03, 2014, 01:51:12 pm
So, we have THREE blue avatar lawyers now.

RIP Gramps.

I'm afraid the number is higher than three.

Now I must shun my adopted Greek nephew as I do all blue avatar lawyers.  It was nice knowing you, Dukey, my ex-nephew.  Cry

I've been shunned? All this time and I didn't even realize. Cry
80  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to not allow replies in the Poll subforums on: November 03, 2014, 01:49:20 pm
You are creating an elephant out of a fly.

After tomorrow, the poll section will be dead for a few months anyway.

Besides, freedom of speech.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Governor Race Models on: November 03, 2014, 01:45:38 pm
538 looks about right, but I'd say advantage Malloy in CT, and Snider's chances in MI are not over 70% at this point.

Also, God only knows in AK.

Still, if the favored party wins every race plus Malloy in CT, that won't surprise.
82  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Simple Truths Silver Mine on: November 03, 2014, 01:35:03 pm
The real act of terrorism is WHITE CAPITALISTS in this country DESTROYING AND MURDERING innocents abroad to further their WHITE SUPREMACIST DESIRE FOR MONEY. The real terrorists are those WHITE CAPITALISTS (SUCH AS THE TEA PARTY, KOCH BROTHERS, AND BILL GATES) who are COMPLETE PYSCHOPATHS and enjoy watching the working class and AFRICAN AMERICANS BURN.

Don't worry slave owning white supremacist plutocrats, you will get yours. Some day the oppressed proletariat of this goddamn racist country will rise up and DESTROY YOU AND YOUR GODDAMN MONEY AND CLASS BASED SYSTEM OF RACIAL GENOCIDE.

Really, SWE? REALLY??
83  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: November 03, 2014, 01:33:46 pm
Wine. Maybe a Laphroig scotch to celebrate depending.


Top election season drink of most posters? Kool-Aid.
84  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which Pope is the preceding poster most like? on: November 03, 2014, 01:30:31 pm
Theodore II

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriarch_Theodore_II_of_Alexandria
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: RNC Chair: Hillary Clinton not really good at politics on: November 03, 2014, 01:14:23 pm
Are you sure you're not describing your own posts here?

Well then, you should agree with the content in all of them, and send me campaign donations.

Dude, you know it's against the rules to post while drunk?

Actually, this place would be a lot more fun if more folks did that.

Yeah, posting while drunk is less endemic than posting while stupid.
86  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage: Perdue+3 on: November 03, 2014, 01:13:22 pm
This race has been for over a month, and remains, likely runoff (then likely Perdue).
87  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Modern Humans Interbred with Neanderthals According to 45,000 Year-Old Genome on: November 03, 2014, 12:54:51 pm
This explains most of Congress.

OK, that's admittedly lame enough for Leno, but I couldn't resist.....
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How significant will it be if Orman wins in Kansas breaking the 1932 streak? on: November 03, 2014, 12:43:26 pm
I think people underestimate the significance if Orman wins in Kansas. Republicans have won every race since 1932 its completely insane!

There can't be many house seats with a streak this long?

Will this have any affect on Kansas politics?

No. This is about Roberts' personal unpopularity, a very good independent (only de facto Dem) opponent, and not helped by Brownback's incredible unpopularity. The latter's real possibility of losing could change KS politics more than the Roberts-Orman race.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will the GOP achieve a "strike" tomorrow ? on: November 03, 2014, 12:41:03 pm
No. We absolutely won't win LA outright, and I'd bet solid money against wining either NH or NC, let alone both.

EDIT: And I'd also bet solid money against Perdue winning outright tomorrow either.
90  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 on: November 03, 2014, 12:37:08 pm
Some people do not realize when certain posters are just trying to push buttons.

Oh I recognize it. It's much more entertaining responding back though.

Ditto. Amusement, not "obsession", has always been my motivation.

Though KC borders the "better off ignored" category.
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: League of the South Makes An Appearance in Maryland on: November 03, 2014, 12:21:52 pm
Quote
Until a few weeks ago, Michael Anthony Peroutka belonged to the League of the South, an Alabama-based group that decries the presence in this country of “hordes of non-white immigrants” and wants the South to secede from the union and return to its “Anglo-Celtic” roots.

Lol. Go back to Ellis Island ya damn dirty Czechoslovak.

Yeah is this guy serious?

Uh, he is completely serious.  He was the Presidential candidate for the Constitution party in 2004.  When his great-grandkids are asked for their ethnic background for the census, they will identify as 'American.'

Of course, a large chunk of Americans (especially in Appalachia) do so as well.
92  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 on: November 03, 2014, 12:20:14 pm
OK KC, your once somewhat more amusing than annoying act is rapidly growing stale.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH-Gov: Fitzgerald in on: November 03, 2014, 12:15:56 pm
You folks think Democrats still have a chance of knocking off that pimply faced nerd Josh Mandel?

Thankfully Mandel will almost certainly still be around for another four years. I'm hopeful looking forward to a more successful Senate campaign in 2018.

I'm hopeful he runs again too, considering he's currently underperforming Kasich by at least 22 points.

@ Lief: Either the Big D's poll is correct and Kasich is going to decimate Fitzgerald even worse than expected (read that again to yourself to grasp the full impact); OR it's overstating Kasich's strength and if Fitzgerald breaks 40% Mandel could be in trouble.

@ Vosem: See Icespear's comment. At best Mandel will win a close race in a really strong GOP year. The Ohio Republican bench is uber-deep. We don't need damaged goods like Mandel to screw up another race.

What are your thoughts Badger on Kasich's margin? Does he break 60%? Predicting minds want to know...

As I answered you in another thread...Wink


Coin flip. I'd say he has a decent chance after Republicans were able to keep the Libertarian candidate off the ballot. I question Fitzgerald hitting 40%, but there might be enough disaffected Democrats and liberals who cast ballots for the Green to keep Kasich under 60.
94  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 on: November 03, 2014, 11:57:54 am

Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.
Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.
95  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP - Gardner (R) 48; Udall (D) 45 on: November 03, 2014, 11:46:08 am
Unfortunate that Udall was forced to run in such a misogynistic state

The only thing more misogynistic than abortion is the idea that women are primarily motivated to vote by a desire to have unimpeded access to abortion.

Women want to have fun and not get pregnant. I know it's hard for you to understand because you don't get laid, but trust those of us who do.

I'm sure you're quite the man about town, KC.
96  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 on: November 03, 2014, 11:45:31 am
What's the news?

Quote
2010 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 678,939
White: 66.5%
Black: 29.0%

Quote
2010 Total Turnout:
Total Votes Cast: 2,622,527
White: 66.5%
Black: 28.0%



Quote
2014 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 933,038
White: 61.1%
Black: 32.7%

Quote
Aggregate Polling for 2014 GA:

White: 64%
Black: 28%

Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Plus he's, y'know, correct.
97  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-Gov, Columbus Dispatch: Kasich in the lead on: November 03, 2014, 11:43:55 am
This is another of the Dispatch's stupid mail polls.

True, but Kasich could easily win by the margin this poll shows.

Edit: S[inks]! Angry  French is the worst (aside from Mandel, o/c) Sad

Respectfully disagree re: French, as does the State Bar (though admittedly her opponent is also "highly recommended" like her).

That said, doesn't the Dispatch poll have some historical accuracy issues? Not Vox Populi or We Are America levels, but IIRC it's not that close either.
Regarding French, X is right about her. She's just a personal vote for Kasich on the OSC (ex. going with the majority on the flawed JobsOhio's constitutionality). French even just admitted that the other day when she said she was prepared to reinforce all GOP legislation that passes by.

I wouldn't count the State Bar as very reliable for this one race, either. They're attacking O'Donnell as partisan for saying in an ad that French pocketed campaign contributions by a corporation in return for a OSC vote for them, yet they refuse to go after French for her partisan comments. O'Donnell is definitely highly qualified and I appreciate them giving him that rating, but calling French "highly recommended" is ridiculous.

As for the poll, it's Dispatch so trash it. Admittedly, their 2012 OH-Sen poll was right on the dot (Brown +6), but their Governor polling....not so much. The accepted belief is that Fitzy will lose by upper teen double digits and this poll isn't even close. It's reassuring though that Mandel's only up by 6 in this!

Actually, their poll was right on the money in 2010 predicting a Kasich win by 2. I couldn't find anything online immediately about how they did in the 2008 presidential race or 06 governor's race, but between nailing the last presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial races, I really can't remember why I (mis)recalled the Dispatch polls being of mediocre accuracy.

Badger, will Kasich be held under 60%?

Coin flip. I'd say he has a decent chance after Republicans were able to keep the Libertarian candidate off the ballot. I question Fitzgerald hitting 40%, but there might be enough disaffected Democrats and liberals who cast ballots for the Green to keep Kasich under 60.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: November 03, 2014, 11:37:13 am

Anyone have any updates on this?

IMHO, for the reasons Miles and Backtored (and now TB) have all stated, Udall is likely finished. Of the remaining "swing races" in IA, AK and KS (which Democrats need to sweep if Udall loses in order to firmly keep the Senate), I'm guessing (with minimal certainty) the one Republicans are most likely to win is IA.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 4 reasons why Senate control may not be decided on Nov.4 on: November 03, 2014, 11:11:31 am
Republicans need to sweep IA, CO, KS, and AK tomorrow to solidify senate control without waiting for the LA and GA runoffs. Distinctly possible, but not likely.

Dems need to win 3 of 4 to keep Senate control regardless of GA and (especially) LA. Not impossible, but rather unlikely.

Baring either party beating the odds against them, the Senate will be decided in the runoffs. As long as the GOP carries at least 2 of those 4 races (a decent probability), all they have to do is then beat Landrieu, and then Nunn, in what will become the most nationalized senate races in years, which will make them very difficult for either Democrat (especially Nunn) to win.

For that matter, Republicans winning 3 of 4 races (close to 50/50 odds I'd say) means we've won the Senate short of Landrieu winning re-election (which will still be nationalized by, technically, "deciding the Senate's control") and Nunn then winning an mega-upset where a majority of GA runoff voters willingly agree to give Senate control back to the Democrats (assuming Landrieu wins in December). Say that last line out loud for full impact of Nunn's odds.  

FWIW, even if Republican control of the Senate is established by next month regardless of the final outcome in GA, I still don't believe the de-nationalization of that race will be enough to sink Perdue in the runoff.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky on: November 03, 2014, 10:53:18 am
Of course they'll say publically it's too close to call, and after investing 2 years of their lives and running close for so long they may hold out for a miracle, but I can't believe Grimes and her people really believe they're not going to lose.
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 403


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines