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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win Harris County, TX? on: August 14, 2014, 06:12:26 pm
Cornyn; Obama only held it by 970 votes in a Presidential year.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: August 14, 2014, 05:50:12 pm

This is HUGE. Miller endorsed Saxby Chambliss in the 2008 runoff, and PPP found him with a 64/7 favorability among GA Republicans.

Am I cynical to doubt how many voters Zell's blessing can sway any more?

Still, gives her some necessary moderate cred.

A moot point considering the 50% + 1 threshold will stop her if nothing else.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed? on: August 14, 2014, 05:40:07 pm
Obviously, some of this was underdog sympathy but by the end of the '08 primaries, Clinton was leading McCain, in some cases substantially, in polls of Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia. She trailed narrowly (five or less) in four Obama states: CO, IA, NC, WI. The one O state where she trailed badly (nine points) was VA, but Obama was down eight in the same poll.

Now, what happened between May and the election? The economy crashed. This would only have helped Clinton's chances, just as it did Obama's IRL. Arguably it would have helped her more because of her husband's economic record.

I don't think she would have carried Louisiana. She might not have focused on Indiana or the district in Nebraska. But her potential to carry Southern/border states while holding on to most of Obama's map was clearly there based on contemporaneous polling.  

I forgot to check "always remain logged in" box, so my long detailed answer was lost. Angry

To summarize:

With the exception of AR, the polls cited show Hillary usually doing poorly (e.g. KY) or middling (IN & MO) against McCain in the McCain states you mentioned (the only WV poll showed her 5 points up in Feb, fwiw). By contrast, she was regularly and consistently losing most of the Obama states mentioned (see NC, VA, CO, IA, WI).

While the economic crisis that fall would've benefited Clinton as it did Obama, and McCain couldn't have realistically made up the 9+ point margins against Clinton in CO, IA, WI, and even the 6.3% margin in VA probably wouldn't disappear with Hillary, he would've likely made up the teensy margin he lost NC to Obama by. Likewise, Hillary would've never matched Obamas ground game which is what oh so narrowly carried IN and NE-2 for him (both of which even Bubba lost), so those likely go Republican as well.

On the other hand, while Hillary probably couldn't equal the turnout Obama produced in KC and (especially) St. Louis, she'd appeal to voters throughout the rest of the state much better, particularly in the Ozark SW, and thus likely erase McCain's tiny 4000 vote margin in MO. Similarly, the Friends of Bill state just to the south would likely come home for the Clintons again.

So the likely correct answer is: flip NC, IN, & NE-2 Republican, flip MO and AR Democrat, with an outside unlikely chance of WV and/or VA flipping by surprise.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Gerald Ford's 1976 debate gaffe make the difference? on: August 14, 2014, 04:28:09 pm
Probably, but only because as the OP noted the few swing states necessary to flip the election were SOOOO close.

Polish and other East-European Americans weren't the only ones put off by the gaffe. IT reinforced the (mis)perception of Ford being a bumbling flake who was in over his head. Heck, it could've swayed enough votes to flip uber-close HI despite there being only a nominal Polish community there.

Putting Rocky on the ticket is all well and good in theory, but conservatives would've gone ape-$hit at the convention and afterwards. Ford desperately needed to mend the party after his bruising battle with Reagan. Remember, considering how relatively un-polarized the 76 electorate was and how relatively close ideologically Ford and Carter were (definite differences, but arguably as close as any major party candidates since Stevenson-Eisenhower), at lot of conservative Reagan supporters (especially in the south and border states like VA and OK) could've opted for Carter over Ford with their bete noire, Rocky, on the ticket. 
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4% on: August 14, 2014, 10:17:16 am
Quote
Among undecided voters McConnell has a 10% approval rating to 66% who disapprove of him- gives Grimes opportunity

Quote
38% of the voters who disapprove of McConnell also disapprove of Obama

Look closely kids, someone asutely spotted the central issue of this race: Whether the undecided voters' dislike of Obama is sufficiently stronger than their dislike of McConnell to forego supporting Grimes.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Rasmussen: After primary, Sen. Roberts (R) in trouble on: August 14, 2014, 10:09:15 am
Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

Is there an election since 2006 where Republicans haven't been "riled up"? The race is hardly over of course, but surely you too see Davis being over 50% in a Rassy poll as a sign of serious danger?

KS is a true (Atlas) blue state, which is why Roberts should indeed win by a decent margin (as noted, his lead will grow once the butthurt from the primary passes and Wolf supporters inevitably come home. The fact that Taylor is only at 40% is telling), a governor's race doesn't carry the same partisanship as federal races even in 2014. That's especially so in a state like KS with a very strong and recent practice of moderate Republicans and independents broadly backing Democrats for state office.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-HEG: Perdue (R) leads Nunn (D). on: August 14, 2014, 09:57:52 am
69% white? They're only off by about seven points; an accurate demographic would likely show Carter up by 4 and Perdue up by 2.

You're expecting the non-white share of November's electorate to be about 38%? You know GA's voting demographics far better than I, but that sounds somewhat high.

The last exit poll data I could find for GA was 2008 where CNN (fwiw) measured the white electorate share as 65% I realize the non-white population (especially Hispanics and Asians) has grown in GA during the last 6 years, but won't minority turnout drop somewhat for a mid-term election, especially among African-Americans without Obama on the ballot?

Still, 69% sounds a bit high. Maybe not impossible for a mid-term, but definitely the realistic ceiling.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: August 14, 2014, 09:12:20 am
The PA Fraternal Order of Police endorses Wolf after supporting Corbett in 2010.



Wow. It's rare for them to endorse a Democrat.

Is it? In PA maybe? I know they recently endorsed the entire Dem slate for statewide offices (except SoS) in Ohio, though admittedly that's influenced by memories of SB 5, Though I think they backed Strickland too.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 12: CT, MN, WI) on: August 14, 2014, 09:08:41 am
CT Gov-R by town:


Foley (winner) in blue.  McKinney in red.  Tie in grey.


That's a surprisingly lopsided map for only a 56-44 split. Did McKinney absolutely clean up in his home region, and/or was the rest of the state mostly (outside Greenwich, it seems) fairly close despite being near uniformly going for Foley?
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will Colleen Hanabusa do now that she lost the U.S Senate primary? on: August 14, 2014, 08:32:13 am
She was a respected lawyer, so she could easily go back to private practice.

She's in a position to take opportunities to run for statewide office in the next few years. Although not much further than that.

Her resume isn't all that impressive (two years as President of the Hawaii state Senate, four years as a congresswoman when Democrats held the majority) so depending on an appointment doesn't seem like a good strategy.

For a full cabinet position, sure; but assuming she heavily backs/chairs Hillary's HI campaign and campaigns among Asian and women groups for her, she might have a shot at some minor deputy under-secretary or ambassador posting.
86  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will Colleen Hanabusa do now that she lost the U.S Senate primary? on: August 14, 2014, 08:30:06 am
I think it's rather disrespectful to declare that she "lost" the primary when precincts are scheduled to vote on Friday (Hanabusa has actually filed a lawsuit to delay the election).

I smell shenanigans --- The libs are trying to run her out of the race. Talk about a war on women.

Simple math tells anyone who has looked closely at this race that Hanabusa is toast.  There aren't enough votes left for her to make up a 1,635-vote margin with any reasonable percentage of the vote.  If 4,000 turn out in the missing precincts (which would be a very high number - it's probably lower), Hanabusa would need to garner about 70% of the vote to win.  She hasn't reached 70% anywhere in the state except for two very small precincts that voted absentee-only.  Heck, she didn't even win her own home precinct by that large a margin.

Well you, Cinyc, are obviously part of the lib war on women. Roll Eyes

Sorry, sorry....don't feed the troll.
87  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: How did Vermont go from being the most Republican state to the most Democratic on: August 14, 2014, 08:06:42 am
(Long post coming up)


Vermont used to vote for Republican candidates in most elections for several reasons.

In indirect elections, like for the state legislature, it was because district drawing was biased towards the rural, more Republican counties with smaller communities. The state senate used to have district borders following county lines, giving large, populous counties (*cough* Chittenden *cough*) equal representation to places like Essex or Grand Isle.
This was not changed until the 1960's, with the SCOTUS ruling that the "one man, one vote" principle required district borders to not follow county lines unless representative of the inhabitants of the counties.

Another, much simpler way of explaining it is immigration. The 1980's and 1990's saw great migration from New York City, as well as the rest of the New England states, to Vermont. These people were from mostly liberal areas, shifting the state from the Republicans to the Democrats.

Yet another reason for the Green Mountain state to go blue (or for the sake of this site, red), is that Vermont have a history of social liberal Republicans, making the state more libertarian than most states controlled by the Republicans.

Even today, you can still see some Republicans winning elections. The lieutenant governor is a Republican (elected on a ballot separate from the governor's). Also, the last US congressmen from Vermont to be a Republican, left offices as late as 1991.
It's a bit more blurry with the US Senate, where Jim Jeffords took office as a Republican in 1989, became an independent in 2001, and finally left office in 2007. Ironically, the last national legislator from the Vermont Republican Party was replaced in 2007 by Bernie Sanders, a Democrat-backed, self-described democratic socialist.


Sources:
- en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont#Elections_to_federal_office
- en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Vermont

Finally! A smart, articulate, non-trollish newbie! Cheesy

Sorry, we've had a bit of a drought lately. Or at least the loudest recent newbies have generally been god-awful. Tongue

Please post more. Smiley
88  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: How is a Presidential Election conducted during an invasion? on: August 14, 2014, 08:00:52 am
The 1864 election is a good precedent for this question.
89  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: Obama won 10 of Kentucky's 11 largest cities on: August 14, 2014, 07:59:06 am
In Kentucky, Obama won 10 of the state's 11 biggest cities. In fact, he won each of the 7 largest cities.

Yet Romney gets all 8 electoral votes.

Is that fair?

What kind of question is that?

God, douse this thread in fifty shades of petrol and burn it into the ground. I know this forum has a place for left-wing hackery, but I didn't know it could get this bad.

NB If I thought the OP was having a joke I wouldn't say this. But it seems plain it's no joke

I urge you not to judge most Forum leftists based on Bandit. His case is......."special".
90  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which of the 3 largest US cities would you rather live in? on: August 13, 2014, 11:32:34 pm
Nyc baby. LA second for the weather.
91  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: HockeyDude in crisis (military/law knowledge helpful) on: August 13, 2014, 11:17:10 pm
Exhaust every option counseling-wise and legal-wise, but NO level of discharge--even "dishonorable"--is so worth avoiding to put your life in mortal risk of such a horrible decision.

BTW, alcohol may not be the root cause, but it doesn't help and feeds the problem. Vicious spiral and all that.

WHATEVER you do, don't take the coward's way out. You and your family both deserve better.

Badger, your use of the word "coward" is a disgusting insult.  However it turned out, I put myself our there for my country.  It's so funny that we are all heroes but civilians turn on us in the blink of an eye.

I think it's pretty clear (considering the first paragraph) than the "coward's way" isn't discharge, but suicide, which is very selfish and cowardly.

Even a dishoronable discharge is better than death and by quite a margin.

FWIW Hockey Dude, Max is righgt. Suicide is the coward's way out; NOT discharge. At least that's what I meant before.
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CIA Admits to Hacking U.S. Senate Computers on: August 13, 2014, 12:52:02 pm

The real problem is that our society has this bizarre idea that certain people whether it be businessmen who commit white-collar crimes, members of the intelligence community (I know the FBI is domestic stuff, but I'm including them here for the purposes of this post), etc don't "belong" in prison.  We've created this completely illogical protected class of criminals.  The real question, and I don't have the answer, is why is stealing $10,000 in an armed robbery where no one actually ends up being harmed viewed as being worse than a businessman who steals $100 million?  Few prosecutors even approach most white collar crimes seeking jail time for the defendants.  There are obviously exceptions (ex: Enron), but still...

Without getting into the CIA kurfluffle specifically, you're dead right on this. Yes, it's worse being robbed with a gun then an fountain pen, but white collar criminals need hammered. As part of sentencing "reforms" Ohio passed a few years ago, someone has to steal at least  $150k before they can even be considered for prison unless they have a prior felony or violate their pre-trial bond (or have a violent misdemeanor conviction within the previous two years, but you get the point).
93  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: HockeyDude in crisis (military/law knowledge helpful) on: August 13, 2014, 12:14:40 pm
Exhaust every option counseling-wise and legal-wise, but NO level of discharge--even "dishonorable"--is so worth avoiding to put your life in mortal risk of such a horrible decision.

BTW, alcohol may not be the root cause, but it doesn't help and feeds the problem. Vicious spiral and all that.

WHATEVER you do, don't take the coward's way out. You and your family both deserve better.
94  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: First Annual Steelers March to the SuperBowl thread on: August 13, 2014, 12:05:58 pm
Threads like this are why Atlas needs a like button.
95  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: opinion of "The Piper at the Gates of Dawn" on: August 13, 2014, 12:05:31 pm
Borderline HA. It's overrated as far as cult albums go, and most of the pre-Dark Side albums are syperior.

Do you like Meddle?

Quite so, yes.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed? on: August 13, 2014, 11:57:33 am


So she wins KY and WV, but loses Hi. Got it.
97  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What is your primary news source? on: August 13, 2014, 11:51:53 am
Ol' Dirty Melvim, down on the town square. He knows what's what.
98  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Best GOP Almost-President: Thomas Dewey or Bob Dole on: August 13, 2014, 11:49:30 am
They do exist today. We call them Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and their allies in the Tea Party.

Get used to maps like this then:



You underestimate the ability of the Tea Party to make wise running mate picks. If Reagan (the Tea Party candidate of his day) could do it then who's to say Mike Lee wouldn't.

And you vastly overestimate the ability of a running mate to do more than "not hurt" a ticket. To use your example, GHW Bush's selection as running mate had negligible effect on the final 1980 vote.

Oh, and Dewey defeats Dole.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: August 13, 2014, 11:36:29 am
The PA Fraternal Order of Police endorses Wolf after supporting Corbett in 2010.



Everybody wants to back a winner. Details at 11.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Do you think PA will be within the MoE this year? on: August 13, 2014, 11:31:59 am
Depends on what this pollster is up to.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48619.0

Yeah, that's the poll.

Reading their summary of regional margins, it's fun to figure out just where they were most wrong.
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