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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Best Campaigns (thus far) on: September 28, 2014, 12:48:38 pm
Gardner, Hagan, and McConnell all come to mind.

I guess Scott Brown too if he really does make it close.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Selzer & Co.: Ernst up, outside MoE on: September 28, 2014, 12:47:46 pm
Braley better lay a bunch of gotcha traps in the debates -- Ernst will easily fall for them. He needs to get her spouting off about Agenda 21 or whatever those types salivate over.

Hopefully at least some of the moderators can help him in this.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Selzer & Co.: Ernst up, outside MoE on: September 27, 2014, 11:30:53 pm
Looks like Mississippi isn't going to be America's #1 punchline state much longer. Hooray!
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Grade Bruce Braley's campaign on: September 27, 2014, 10:19:40 pm
I for now, but I can't imagine it ending up as anything other than D if he wins, F if he loses.
80  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Coheed And Cambria? on: September 27, 2014, 06:52:58 pm
Pretty good, but I honestly only know 3-4 of their songs.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which states do the GOP pickup (updated)? on: September 27, 2014, 02:02:59 pm
Write-in: none

I'm not saying that it's totally unrealistic that some of the state will go to the devil's column, but the fact that Michigan and New Hampshire are listed is truly ridiculous.

I only put them there because if I didn't, someone would whine about it

It didn't occur to you that people would whine about not having a NOTA option?
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What happened to Mary Landrieu? on: September 27, 2014, 12:17:58 pm
34-29, Mary.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: September 27, 2014, 09:35:22 am

Well what I was actually referring to was the "string attached" that Orman would have to caucus with the GOP. If he were a true believer like Chris McDaniel, he would want the Republican nominee to lose and want the Republicans not to control the senate, as a way of sticking it to the Establishment.
84  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 26, 2014, 09:22:35 pm
Even though it looks bad, don't try anything like quitting before your boss gets the chance to fire you Tuesday. Do whatever you can to keep your job during the meeting.

Don't give up until he actually says "You're fired."
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Social conservatives campaign against Republicans who endorsed same-sex marriage on: September 26, 2014, 07:55:51 pm
Good. I hope they do they same for Portman and Kirk in the future. Maybe they could contrive some more purity tests in the future too.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Primaries: Your Predicted Top Three Only on: September 26, 2014, 04:19:20 pm


Blue - Christie
Green - Cruz
Red - Paul

Trying to keep the primary schedules in mind.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's running mate? on: September 26, 2014, 04:16:31 pm
It's constitutionally impossible for Clinton to select Gillibrand, or any other New Yorker for that matter.

It's allowed, but NY's electors couldn't vote for them.

If Hillary won enough votes, the NY electors could leave the VP slot blank, or if she won a relatively close election, half could vote Hillary/blank, and the other half blank/Gillibrand.

If Hillary won 271-267 or something like that, I'd assume the electors would all vote Hillary and let the Senate choose the VP.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which states do the GOP pickup (updated)? on: September 26, 2014, 02:21:48 pm
Not that I would have picked it, but no NOTA option? That's at least a plausible outcome...

If you're delusional. Barring a massive swing of Democratmentum and every nominee pulling a Mourdock, they WILL get at least one of these.

Agreed, but you should have included it as an option -- By 538 odds, Republicans have right under a 0.5% of clean sweeping all 7 of these races. Your poll allows us to pick all 7 races as Republican wins. On the other hand, Democrats have a 0.3% chance of sweeping all 7, but your poll does not allow us to predict that outcome.

The two probabilities are virtually indistinguishable. Doesn't it make sense to make both options available as a poll choice if 1 of them is?
89  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 26, 2014, 01:56:40 pm
I made it back home.  I called my boss at 1115 when I was about to leave Shawnee, the town where my doctor's office is located, and told him I would be in around 1300.  He said to go on home as there is no need to just work 3 hours.  So, I won't get my paycheck until Monday.  I'll be honest, though, he did not sound happy.  My attendance is still pretty good other than missing 2 1/2 days in the past week, not including today, but I think my performance, while it has improved, may not be improving at the speed he wants or needs.  He said we'll talk about it Monday.  I still have a job for right now, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if that changes Monday.  So, I'm about to turn around and go back to my parents' for the weekend to discuss next steps in the event that I am out of a job come Monday.  Again, I do not think it's my attendance, rather I think it has a lot to do with my performance not improving fast enough.  So, have fun with this one, folks...

Don't do anything rash! If your parents tell you to quit, ignore their advice. Go into work Monday and do the best that you can. Make damn sure that he's the one who ends your employment there, if that happens, and not you.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight releases pollster ratings on: September 26, 2014, 08:03:33 am
I'm tasting the tears of the PPPites right now.

What? PPP got a pretty good rating from 538, but not nearly enough for any tears of joy.

If anything, it's probably the PPP-haters crying sad tears, but 538 demonstrated how their two pet arguments ("PPP is a bad pollster," "PPP has a Democratic bias") are wrong.
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who should be the next Attorney General? on: September 26, 2014, 07:55:02 am
Susan Collins

Actually Yeah, so that the Congress could finally get rid of such a lousy Senator. If there's ONE single Senator right now who is hindering radical and truely progressive change in the Senate/US for the better, that person is not Mark Pryor, that person is most definitely Susan Collins. For two very obvious reasons. 1) She is so much more of partisan than all of you figureheads try to claim. In more than 80% of all cases, she sides with the extremely conservative tea party members. 2) Because of her, we cannot have Shenna Bellows for Senate, who would make even Bernie Sanders blush for being way to centrist, coward and insipide. Bellows would for sure become the most European-like Senator the US had ever seen, and in comparison truely make Susan Collins seem like the Ted Cruz of Maine politics. To be quite frank, I'm quite disgusted by the Human Rights Campaign endorsing Collins instead of the most LGBTIQ friendly candidate the American election system has ever seen to date.

My logic was this:
  • She would have no trouble getting confirmed, since all of the Democrats would back her and most of the Republicans.
  • She wouldn't get Landrieu, Hagan, Pryor, etc., in any trouble with their voters.
  • She still might inspire a sexist remark or otherwise stupid remark from a far-right Republican, hurting the entire Republican Party.
  • Republican Senate candidates would have a tough time praising Obama's pick but not praising Obama himself, and one of them might screw that up. If they praise the pick too much, Tea Partiers may stay home.
  • Obama and the Democrats would have a concrete example of "Look how bipartisan we are!" to attract Independent voters.
  • Maine would probably replace her with a Democrat.
  • Having her out of the Senate pulls the "average Republican Senator" in to more conservative, more hackish, less likable territory.
  • She'd probably be fine at the job -- she's not bad for a Republican.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: September 25, 2014, 11:37:12 pm

Hmmm, I guess Wolf just isn't a true believer like Chris McDaniel.
93  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who should be the next Attorney General? on: September 25, 2014, 09:35:47 pm
Susan Collins
94  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 25, 2014, 06:18:28 pm
Bushie, whatever you do, DO NOT make an assumption and just impulsively quit the job.
95  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have your interest in US politics increased or declined after joining Atlas? on: September 25, 2014, 06:17:11 pm
Declined, but backlash against the outrageous childish treatment of Obama by Republicans has kept it above water for now.
96  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your current ignore list? on: September 25, 2014, 06:15:43 pm
No one. I've tried ignoring a few people in the past, but I would always just click "show post" anyway.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight releases pollster ratings on: September 25, 2014, 05:16:00 pm
I wonder how you can get an A+ when you have a 1.1% R bias. Tongue That's at least as strong and probably an even stronger bias than the average pollster. It's only slightly less of a bias than Gravis even.

I assume if the pollster is consistently, always dead-on 1.1 R-biased, then you can get a very accurate reading from the poll by making the adjustment.

That's a lot more reliable than one that averages out to 0, but has a high standard deviation.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which states do the GOP pickup (updated)? on: September 25, 2014, 12:13:01 pm
Not that I would have picked it, but no NOTA option? That's at least a plausible outcome...
99  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AG Eric Holder to Step Down on: September 25, 2014, 10:44:34 am
I'm assuming this is part of an Obama/Democratic ploy to get Republicans to act like asses over the replacement nominee?
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 25, 2014, 07:24:00 am
Let's all remember that this company saw his resume for the first time, called him, brought him in for an interview, and hired him all in the span of a couple hours. Clearly they don't do things the "normal" way there, so no reason to read too much into them giving him extra days for grief if he needed them.
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