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76  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Bernie TV is exploding online with little media attention ! on: April 08, 2017, 08:48:35 pm
Come on, somebody post some YouTube links so I can watch the videos...
77  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: Obamacare Marketplaces Stabilizing on: April 08, 2017, 07:59:59 pm

Come on now, one random insurer in one random state pulls out, and now it's "so much for stabilizing??"

If your local grocery store stops selling one particular brand of canned chili because that company wasn't making money selling that kind of chili in that kind of store, does that mean that the chili market is collapsing? Or is it just a symptom of the free market, where some companies can't hack it and fail, while others succeed?
78  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: Obamacare Marketplaces Stabilizing on: April 08, 2017, 03:24:04 pm
Looks like I was a little off on my numbers. Here's some 2017 numbers for you:
http://acasignups.net/17/04/07/milliman-provides-one-my-holy-grails-hard-exchange-enrollment-data

On Exchange (subsidized): 9.0 million
On Exchange (unsubsidized): 1.6 million
Off Exchange (ACA compliant): 5.3 million
Off Exchange (Grandfathered/Transitional): 1.8 million
Basic Health Plans (NY/MN): 0.8 million

So that's 9.8 of 16.7 million (58.7%) receiving subsidies (not counting the GF/transitional because those are pre-ACA, health-status rated stable products).

Still, that is the majority, and there's no good breakdown that I've seen on whether the headline "OMG 20% rate increases!" are disproportionately distributed among the subsidized (where people's rate increase is actually 0%) or the non-subsidized (where people have to pay it). I sure wish the Exchanges had gone online on November 1, 2016, rather than November 15, because I don't doubt there were hundreds of thousands of people who heard scary headlines and voted with the expectation of a large rate increase, only to find out later that they wouldn't be getting one, thanks to subsidies. (And I sure hope that people in that situation didn't mistakenly credit Trump for their lower-than-expected bill...)



That's a great article everyone should read.  Billy Blinson is rightfully balking at paying $1750 per month because he is healthy and doesn't have any medical expenses.  As each healthy person reaches their breaking point and bails, premiums rise even higher for everyone else, causing more healthy people to bail out.  You can claim it isn't a death spiral if you want but that is playing word games.  The scheme cannot survive without healthy people paying the freight.

There's no question that the subsidy formula could use some work, as I have long advocated and no Democrat has never opposed. People making 401% of the FPL are definitely screwed by it. Increasing the subsidies would induce more healthy people onto the Exchanges, which would then lower the cost of insurance and turn around and lower the subsidy.

It's also a reason why the individual mandate needs to be increased considerably. Right now, the individual mandate is very weak, and for most people, the penalty is considerably less than the cheapest health insurance plan available. Raising that penalty to, say, the cost of the cheapest bronze plan, would induce a lot more healthy people into the insured block.
79  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you approve of Republicans using the nuclear option to confirm Gorsuch? on: April 08, 2017, 12:08:43 pm
In any other circumstance, yes it would have been fine, but because of the circumstances with Garland, Gorsuch and all Republican senators are forever tainted by it.
80  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you approve of Trump's recent actions in Syria? on: April 08, 2017, 12:05:16 pm
Also one could argue that Bernie Sanders has access to information that regular Americans don't have, so his opinion is automatically more well-formed than ours.
81  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New York State Senate 1 vote away from passing Single Payer Health Care on: April 08, 2017, 10:43:33 am
They better be careful. If it flops in New York single payer is dead for a generation or more in the USA.
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: Obamacare Marketplaces Stabilizing on: April 08, 2017, 07:50:30 am
That article makes me wonder if Peter Sullivan actually read the report.  Nowhere in the report does it say "marketplaces stabilizing."  In fact it says "Our analysis of 2016 results and the market enrollment so far in 2017 shows that the ACA individual market is not in a "death spiral." But it isn't on a stable footing either."

So the 2017 rate increases outpaced the number of healthy people dropping coverage.  But rates need to go higher and they need to find more healthy people willing to pay higher premiums before it will "stabilize."

https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1828594&SctArtId=421970&from=CM&nsl_code=LIME&sourceObjectId=10047007&sourceRevId=5&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20270408-00:16:31

The vast majority of Exchange enrollees receive subsidies based on their income, and are therefore completely shielded from any rate increase.

If the formula says your bill is $200, it doesn't matter if the calculated rate goes up from $500 to $600 - your bill is $200 either way. All the pearl-clutching you hear every year about "OMG rate increases!" is mostly spin.

The people on the individual market who aren't getting subsidies are more likely to buy directly from an insurer rather than use the exchanges.  And these rate hikes apply to them too.

Correct, and I would certainly support a change to the subsidy rules to help them too, but they make up a very small percentage of ACA Individual enrollees.

When you hear about "OMG 20% rate hikes!!!!" remember that that's an outlier anyway, and that the few areas that really do have rate increases that high, most people are actually getting 0% instead of 20%.
83  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of ExtremeRepublican on: April 07, 2017, 09:54:48 pm
Seems like a good guy. FF. If I knew him in real life, I'd never bring up abortion anyway. (That's a good rule of thumb for anyone really.)
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: Obamacare Marketplaces Stabilizing on: April 07, 2017, 09:40:08 pm
That article makes me wonder if Peter Sullivan actually read the report.  Nowhere in the report does it say "marketplaces stabilizing."  In fact it says "Our analysis of 2016 results and the market enrollment so far in 2017 shows that the ACA individual market is not in a "death spiral." But it isn't on a stable footing either."

So the 2017 rate increases outpaced the number of healthy people dropping coverage.  But rates need to go higher and they need to find more healthy people willing to pay higher premiums before it will "stabilize."

https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1828594&SctArtId=421970&from=CM&nsl_code=LIME&sourceObjectId=10047007&sourceRevId=5&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20270408-00:16:31

The vast majority of Exchange enrollees receive subsidies based on their income, and are therefore completely shielded from any rate increase.

If the formula says your bill is $200, it doesn't matter if the calculated rate goes up from $500 to $600 - your bill is $200 either way. All the pearl-clutching you hear every year about "OMG rate increases!" is mostly spin.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Visions for the Wall Released on: April 07, 2017, 08:01:41 pm
Way over budget and years behind schedule!

The budget is $0 since Mexico's paying for it
86  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare vs Single-Payer Health Care on: April 07, 2017, 12:24:32 pm
Private single payer in which each state contracts with a high quality health insurer of its choice to cover all citizens at low premium, low cost-sharing policies that emphasize preventive services, exercise, no smoking, healthy diets, etc. The federal government would help fund, giving extra grants to poorer states. All hospitals would be mandatorily non-profit.

This is so overtly complex when you could just guarantee healthcare for everybody and you'd actually save money.

I don't trust most states in the USA to set up a system that provides adequate, sufficient, comprehensive coverage, and I doubt many of them would be competent enough to save money in the attempt.
87  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you support the missile strikes on Syria? on: April 06, 2017, 10:29:11 pm
If Obama had ordered it, I'd probably be a Yes, so I guess I should give Trump the benefit of the doubt until he screws it up.
88  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare vs Single-Payer Health Care on: April 06, 2017, 06:15:23 pm
Neither are steps in the right direction. The U.S. government already spends one of the highest per capita figures on healthcare in the world. There is no point in going even higher. Ted Cruz's and Rand Paul's ideas are definitely steps in the right direction in fixing the monstrosity that is American healthcare, as they reduce government mandates and spending and make those using healthcare more responsible for paying for it. Isn't this obvious?

Yeah, that's just it. Single-payer would save money.

Single-payer could save money, but it would have to be run really well. It's not like it's an automatic money-saver, and I have little faith in most state governments to actually do it right.
89  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare vs Single-Payer Health Care on: April 06, 2017, 04:59:05 pm
Private single payer in which each state contracts with a high quality health insurer of its choice to cover all citizens at low premium, low cost-sharing policies that emphasize preventive services, exercise, no smoking, healthy diets, etc. The federal government would help fund, giving extra grants to poorer states. All hospitals would be mandatorily non-profit.
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gorsuch Confirmation Process Discussion (latest: 52-48 NUCLEAR, 55-45 CLOTURE) on: April 06, 2017, 12:34:19 pm
You reap what Harry Reid sows.

Probably worth it. How many lower judges did we get out of Harry Reid's change?
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Border wall to include viewing decks for Tourists to watch apprehensions on: April 05, 2017, 09:36:55 pm
Shouldn't Mexico be the one taking "bids" for the Wall, not us?
92  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: American leftists: Do you feel represented by Chuck Schumer? on: April 05, 2017, 09:05:44 pm
No, but his job is to get stuff done in the Senate, not necessarily to represent the beliefs of rank and file Democrats.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats: If it is down to Clinton/Sanders rematch who do you support? on: April 05, 2017, 09:02:42 pm
Depends on whether Bernie calls his health care plan the deceitful, dishonest name of "Medicare for All" or the correct, descriptive "Medicaid for All."

This was the primary reason I picked Hillary over Bernie in 2016, despite a closer alignment to Bernie on the issues.


Lol really? Going against someone who is more aligned with you politically over wording? Geez.

I'm being a little bit facetious of course, but it did always bug me.

He may have been making a reference to Canadian Medicare, not American Medicare, in which case his terminology wasn't wrong.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats: If it is down to Clinton/Sanders rematch who do you support? on: April 05, 2017, 08:21:07 pm
Depends on whether Bernie calls his health care plan the deceitful, dishonest name of "Medicare for All" or the correct, descriptive "Medicaid for All."

This was the primary reason I picked Hillary over Bernie in 2016, despite a closer alignment to Bernie on the issues.
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The apology from Hillary on: April 05, 2017, 08:12:38 pm
If anything, the Democrat Party owes the people of the United States an apology for perpetrating this "deplorable" upon the American public as a candidate.   
That's who I've been blaming.  It's not Hillary's fault she sucked as a candidate, everybody should have known she did, it's why she lost in '08.  The Dems (apparently) had nobody else better.  That's entirely their fault, they had 8 years to prep one for us.

No matter how many times the haters say this, it will never be true. She got 3 million votes more than Trump, and it would have been a much larger margin, including an electoral college victory, if some of the pwecious snowflakes who were rooting for her to win had bothered to pitch in and help, rather than their "noble" "protest" of leaving it blank or #writeinBernie or whatever.

It's not Hillary's fault she ran up against a buzzsaw who added millions of voters to the rolls, reached out to Democrats like no Republican ever could have, and somehow still hung out to all of the "values voters" (ha!). And despite all of his unique advantages that no other Republican could have brought to the table, the American people were rooting for her victory by a landslide margin. She wasn't a terrible candidate or even a mediocre one - she would have trounced the other Republicans, and even had a clear preference of the electorate against the Republicans' strongest candidate.
96  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The apology from Hillary on: April 05, 2017, 08:02:45 pm
Anyone who leans left and didn't vote Hillary should apologize to America and the world for what they vainly, selfishly inflicted upon all of us.

But obviously voters in the key states of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania did not want Hillary, that's why the Dems lost the election.  

Enough voters did want Hillary in those and other states (such as Florida), but enough of them for whatever reason failed to cast a vote for her despite wanting her to win.
97  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The apology from Hillary on: April 05, 2017, 04:52:27 pm
Anyone who leans left and didn't vote Hillary should apologize to America and the world for what they vainly, selfishly inflicted upon all of us.

A daily reminder of why I hate this party.

Truth hurts, doesn't it. If everyone who preferred Hillary to Trump had just voted for her, we could have had her as president.

     The condescension of saying people who did things you didn't like "should apologize to America and the world" isn't winning people to your side.

Yawn. People who wanted Hillary to win but didn't vote for her deserve far worse than some light "condescension"

Hillary was not entitled to those people's votes. She didn't earn them, so those people didn't vote for her. I can say the same for Al Gore.

She absolutely is entitled to the votes of people who want her to win.

Too bad a small but sufficient percentage of the electorate who wanted her to win decided they were just a little too #triggered to vote for her and just left it blank or wrote in Bernie or whatever, selfishly thinking that she had it in the bag so they were safe to mooch off everyone else's votes.

No, she is not entitled to votes from people. She didn't earn them, plain and simple.

She earned the votes of people who wanted her to win.

I'm not referring to the "liberal" nimrods who wanted her to lose. I'm referring to people who legitimately wanted her to win but for whatever reason decided not to actually vote for her, preferring to rely on everyone else to do it instead.

Those people aren't solely responsible for her loss-- any set of sufficient voters could change the outcome -- but they're the most logical to blame because they're the ones who wanted her to win and didn't help.
98  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Republicans are going to wish Hillary Clinton won" on: April 05, 2017, 04:33:20 pm
Personhood only failed in Mississippi because many people knew it went against Roe and thought it wouldn't stand in the courts.  Maybe rape or incest exceptions would be carved out, but abortion will be illegal one day in this country.

The reason it failed was because it had no exception for rape and incest, and would have probably made IVF, IUDs, and birth control pills illegal.

The fact that it would have obviously been stricken by the Courts had nothing to do with it.
99  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The apology from Hillary on: April 05, 2017, 04:23:32 pm
Anyone who leans left and didn't vote Hillary should apologize to America and the world for what they vainly, selfishly inflicted upon all of us.

A daily reminder of why I hate this party.

Truth hurts, doesn't it. If everyone who preferred Hillary to Trump had just voted for her, we could have had her as president.

     The condescension of saying people who did things you didn't like "should apologize to America and the world" isn't winning people to your side.

Yawn. People who wanted Hillary to win but didn't vote for her deserve far worse than some light "condescension"

Hillary was not entitled to those people's votes. She didn't earn them, so those people didn't vote for her. I can say the same for Al Gore.

She absolutely is entitled to the votes of people who want her to win.

Too bad a small but sufficient percentage of the electorate who wanted her to win decided they were just a little too #triggered to vote for her and just left it blank or wrote in Bernie or whatever, selfishly thinking that she had it in the bag so they were safe to mooch off everyone else's votes.
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The apology from Hillary on: April 05, 2017, 03:26:43 pm
Anyone who leans left and didn't vote Hillary should apologize to America and the world for what they vainly, selfishly inflicted upon all of us.

A daily reminder of why I hate this party.

Truth hurts, doesn't it. If everyone who preferred Hillary to Trump had just voted for her, we could have had her as president.

     The condescension of saying people who did things you didn't like "should apologize to America and the world" isn't winning people to your side.

Yawn. People who wanted Hillary to win but didn't vote for her deserve far worse than some light "condescension"
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