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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: July 03, 2014, 07:03:22 pm
There's no way in hell McDaniel ever wins a statewide election after this. Had he conceded and endorsed Thad on June 24, then sure, he'd have a good chance to win something in 2015, but that ship has sailed.

I think he'd rather just be the next Rush Limbaugh anyway, and if that's the case, the last 2 weeks have helped his future career, not hurt it.
77  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Credit or Debit? on: July 03, 2014, 07:01:28 pm
Prefer debit, but have been using a credit card a lot lately to help build my credit score.
78  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Is there a list of Mods along with their tenure anywhere? on: July 02, 2014, 11:05:21 pm
I don't understand the "pro" side of mod term limits. This is message board maintenance, not some dumb elected office of infinite power. I know this is an election-related site and that some mods have been not so great stewards of the community trust, but not everything needs to be as political as possible.

It's just a perception thing. Some people, rightly or wrongly, feel like the Mods are an Untouchable group of elites who play by different rules and enforce the rules unevenly. If the masses knew that the "bad" moderators would rotate off soon enough and that they too could be a Mod one day, it might cool down the tensions.

Yes, there are plenty of Mods who do a great job, but the forum will be fine handing over duties to other people. There are a few dozen other posters out there who could do a good job too. Like you said, it's a service to the forum, not some kind of power trip, so there's no reason to have the same people spend years and years in the job if there's other competent people out there unless they just want the title.
79  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread on: July 02, 2014, 09:34:17 pm
For everyone's reference:



It's too small of a sample size to really judge how good his probabilities are, but on first glance they seem pretty good. He really blew Group D, but that's what happens when England is surprisingly bad AND Costa Rica is surprisingly good in the same group. You can see how his formula gave Costa Rica more respect as the tournament went on.

Here is a very rough breakdown at the levels of odds. It's still too early for any valid mathematical analysis (I guess I could run the Chi-Square test if anyone wants), but again his numbers appear to be doing pretty well:
CATEGORY   Y   N   PERC%
0-14         1   15   6.3%
15-24       4   26   13.3%
25-34      15   37   28.8%
35-44       8   17   32.0%
45-54       6    6   50.0%
55-64       5    1   83.3%
65-74      10    1   90.9%
75+          7    1   87.5%
80  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread on: July 02, 2014, 08:01:19 pm
This is my problem with Nate Silver. He presents his predictions as merely "probabilities." So he does not predict that Brazil will advance, but instead that Brazil has a 78% chance to advance or whatever. But if Brazil wins, he and the media applaud him for correctly predicting that Brazil would advance. But if Brazil had lost, he would have just said, "Ah, but I said there was a 22% chance that they would lose, so I'm not wrong!" To check whether or not his probabilities are right, you'd have to look at if, over time, a team with a 78% chance to advance does actually advance in 78 out of 100 games. You can't just say, "Oh, he got the winner in all 8 games right, he's a soccer prediction genius!"

Yes, absolutely that's how he should be judged. At the end of the World Cup, someone should analyze his probabilities for each game and see if, for example, he was "wrong" around 1/4 of the time he said there was a 75% chance. I suspect we'll find out his odds were very good.
81  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Supreme Court Justices on: July 02, 2014, 05:24:25 pm
I abstained on Roberts since he saved Obamacare, but gave the expected liberal/conservative split on the other 8.
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is it easy or hard to live in your county? on: July 02, 2014, 05:22:14 pm
Although this is fascinating, Counties nearly cohesive enough for this. I'd like to see this map at a ZIP code level.
83  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread on: July 02, 2014, 05:18:07 pm
most of our players are young and promising (Yedlin, especially, has been sensational this World Cup) and will continue to improve.

What age do soccer players tend to hit their prime?

Usually their late twenties.

Ah, so two of our goal-scorers should still be improving 2 cups from now. Nice.



Nate Silver had an interesting piece on whether the USA has plateaued or will keep improving.

Quote from: 538
From this perspective, the upward trend has been extremely steady. In fact, other than the 2002 team arriving in the quarterfinals a little ahead of schedule, itís been almost perfectly linear. Since 1986, the U.S.ís Elo rating has improved by almost exactly 50 points every four years.

Imagine that the trend continues. Right now, the U.S. teamís Elo rating is nearly 1,850, which places it 15th in the world. Add another 50 points, and by 2018 it would be at 1,900 ó somewhere around eighth or 10th in the world and near where Belgium and Uruguay and France are today. Thatís a team that could be a dark-horse World Cup contender. By 2026, its Elo rating would be 2,000 ó not far from where Argentina, Germany and the Netherlands began this yearís tournament.
Quote

84  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? on: July 01, 2014, 09:05:12 pm
According to 538, Brazil is a 39% favorite, followed by Argentina at 20%.

haha, good one.

It's based on ESPN's Soccer Power Index, which, like everything related to ESPN, is terrible.

That's only part of it. It also includes homefield advantage, how good the individual players are on the team, and how they've been doing in the World Cup so far. And 538's probabilities have been very good so far this Cup.
85  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? on: July 01, 2014, 08:51:41 pm
According to 538, Brazil is a 39% favorite, followed by Argentina at 20%.
86  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread on: July 01, 2014, 08:45:50 pm
most of our players are young and promising (Yedlin, especially, has been sensational this World Cup) and will continue to improve.

What age do soccer players tend to hit their prime?
87  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: if you are over 30... on: July 01, 2014, 08:31:30 pm
If my wife had wanted me to, I would have. She tossed the idea around but ultimately decided it wasn't necessary. I was relieved.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 30, 2014, 09:07:53 pm
http://gotnews.com/ is reporting proof that Cochran's team paid black Democrats to vote for Cochran. If verified by a more reputable source, this could be a pretty big scandal.
89  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Is there a list of Mods along with their tenure anywhere? on: June 30, 2014, 06:26:11 pm
Why is there no support for Mod term limits? What kind of person would even want to be a Mod for years and years, considering how it's a lot of tedious work for no benefit and you potentially have to put up with angry throngs of haters?
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 30, 2014, 06:20:04 pm
Let me express how frustrating and hypocritical it is that Rush Limbaugh and conservatives urged other Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary during the '08 primaries yet throw a fit when Cochran urged Democrats to cross over and vote for him.

Let's not forget the Tea Party was openly encouraging a Republican (Bill Marcy) to run in the Democratic primary before Childers jumped in.

That's a good point. The Tea Party would've been better off never running McDaniel and then getting 100% behind Marcy after the filing deadline. Against Cochran with no sign of trouble, nobody notable would've run in the Democratic primary.

Senators Bob Conley (D-SC) and Mark Clayton (D-TN) agree with you.

Did the national Tea Party groups pump all kinds of money into those candidates?
91  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Is there a list of Mods along with their tenure anywhere? on: June 30, 2014, 06:12:16 pm
It would be interesting to see. Have any Mods hit the 10-year mark yet?
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 30, 2014, 04:42:50 pm
Let me express how frustrating and hypocritical it is that Rush Limbaugh and conservatives urged other Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary during the '08 primaries yet throw a fit when Cochran urged Democrats to cross over and vote for him.

Let's not forget the Tea Party was openly encouraging a Republican (Bill Marcy) to run in the Democratic primary before Childers jumped in.

That's a good point. The Tea Party would've been better off never running McDaniel and then getting 100% behind Marcy after the filing deadline. Against Cochran with no sign of trouble, nobody notable would've run in the Democratic primary.
93  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Roberts Court on: June 30, 2014, 04:25:49 pm
What major decisions have they gotten right except for Obamacare (minus Medicaid)?
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 30, 2014, 03:39:35 pm

Why is this "story" picking up attention? People, especially those still in college, change their political views all the time.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 30, 2014, 01:51:30 pm
If he's going to find 7000 "illegal votes" statewide, he's going to need a lot more than 1500 in Hinds County...
96  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is the Holy Spirit real? on: June 29, 2014, 09:21:55 pm
The reason I started this thread is because I suspect that vast majority of Christians, even if they'll answer "of course I do!," really either don't believe in it (maybe not actively, but at least just don't even consider the fact that such a "Holy Spirit" exists) or know far too little about it to have a real opinion on whether or not it exists.

I'm a little confused as to what you think the Holy Spirit is, since for all the reasons that Ernest pointed out and more it's a little difficult to argue that it doesn't exist, unless one rejects the notions of Divine action in the world, continued Divine involvement of any kind in the life of the Church, the traditional understanding of how exactly Jesus was conceived, and the conscience as in any way external to the self.

I really don't care about any of that stuff.
97  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: should brtd be banned? on: June 29, 2014, 09:08:48 pm
Where did Inks say this and what was his rationale?
98  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is the Holy Spirit real? on: June 29, 2014, 09:41:07 am
The reason I started this thread is because I suspect that vast majority of Christians, even if they'll answer "of course I do!," really either don't believe in it (maybe not actively, but at least just don't even consider the fact that such a "Holy Spirit" exists) or know far too little about it to have a real opinion on whether or not it exists.
99  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cool chart showing the changing US murder rate over time on: June 28, 2014, 11:25:31 am
I think that there are some people who would be very surprised at the drop of murder in the last 25 years.

People who've read Freakonomics won't be.
100  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Is the Holy Spirit real? on: June 27, 2014, 06:00:35 pm
I lean toward no.
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