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November 22, 2014, 10:39:38 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: Nunn now favored to win election night on: October 24, 2014, 11:30:43 pm
Does 538 only project the first round?

No, their number is the overall probability of winning, whether it's November or January.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: October 24, 2014, 08:00:14 pm
Thought this was a pretty good summation of this year-long circus:

Quote
The Cochran-McDaniel race was one of the nastiest in state history. The looming Nov. 4 general election has been overshadowed really overwhelmed by a Republican primary that featured nursing home break-ins, courthouse lock-ins, criminal accusations and investigations, a suicide and litigation.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: October 24, 2014, 07:58:39 pm
Looks like he might be ready to call it a day:

Quote
McDaniel in statement said, "Republicans are still left wanting justice" by the decision and said he hopes "conservatives in Mississippi will view this decision as a driving factor to get involved in Republican politics."

Neither McDaniel nor his lead attorney Mitch Tyner answered definitively on Friday whether the ruling will put end to his trying to overturn the election, but McDaniel said, "now is time to turn the page and work to enact true conservative change." Tyner said that while he disagreed with the ruling, "we are glad the Supreme Court finally ruled and Mississippi conservatives can move forward into 2015."
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Grade Mark Udall's campaign on: October 24, 2014, 06:20:15 pm
C if he wins, F if he loses.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: October 24, 2014, 05:55:45 pm
The Mississippi Supreme Court has ruled against McDaniel:
http://www.clarionledger.com/story/politicalledger/2014/10/24/mcdaniel-loses-appeal/17858671/


Now the question is whether he'll appeal to Federal Court or just let it go.
81  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Academic shenanigans at UNC on: October 23, 2014, 06:44:36 pm
Stories like this are why the NCAA should actually drop all of the academic requirements for athletes. If they just want to piss-dick around for 4 years and play football, let them. If they don't get their degree, that's on them. At the same time, drop the special treatment too.
82  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Modern Humans Interbred with Neanderthals According to 45,000 Year-Old Genome on: October 23, 2014, 06:42:09 pm
Also worth pointing out that it's entirely inaccurate when people use "Neanderthal" as an epithet for "stupid." Our best research suggests they were just as intelligent as humans.

And as we are all (except full-blooded Africans) descended partially from them, we're just insulting ourselves.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do Democrats Always Win Close Elections? on: October 23, 2014, 06:35:14 pm
Probably a coincidence, but could be a result of a superior GOTV operation.

Also kinda arbitrary to cut it off at 1-point victory, rather than say, a 1.1-point victory, or a 0.8-point victory, either of which would make the D/R breakdown closer.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Bruce Braley chicken dance ad on: October 23, 2014, 05:56:59 pm
Heh. That was pretty funny.
85  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Modern Humans Interbred with Neanderthals According to 45,000 Year-Old Genome on: October 23, 2014, 05:33:47 pm
Early human migrations / interactions with Neanderthals and extinct megafauna really fascinate me for some reason.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So... what happened to Natalie Tennant? on: October 23, 2014, 07:14:44 am
She was/is a terrible candidate running against a good one. It needs to be the other way around for Democrats to win federal office in West Virginia.
87  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: College Football Pick'em- 2014 style on: October 22, 2014, 10:10:14 pm
Virginia Tech
Boise State
Oregon
Kansas State
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Michigan State
West Virginia
TCU
Mississippi State
UCF
Ole Miss
Auburn
Ohio State
USC
Arizona State
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict Louisiana on: October 22, 2014, 08:42:56 pm
When will the runoff take place btw?

December 6th.

Well it's not like LSU is going to be playing a football game that day, so the students should be available to vote!

(That's a burn for those of you who don't get it.)
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why shouldn't we expect the same polling errors in 2014 colorado as in 2010 CO? on: October 22, 2014, 07:25:23 am
Hopefully the pollsters won't knowingly make the same errors?

I don't know, maybe they will. But there's no reason to expect it...
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict Louisiana on: October 22, 2014, 07:19:24 am
If anyone's going to pull an upset, it's probably going to be her.
91  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of South Park's anti-union propaganda on: October 20, 2014, 07:23:47 am
I mean, I think they're right about Uber being far superior to taxis and unions shouldn't be able to shut Uber down, but their portrayal of general union tactics (in this episode and others) was more of a right-wing caricature than anything based in reality.
92  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Green Day on: October 19, 2014, 10:55:47 am
Their early stuff is meh, but American Idiot is definitely one of the best albums of the 00s.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA: Ernst endorses fetal "personhood" on: October 17, 2014, 05:46:05 pm
I see she's taking the opposite tactic of Cory Gardner - instead of conceding on abortion, she's rallying behind the base. I don't think it'll work though.

I don't see any difference between their positions. Gardner is a co-sponsor of the federal bill.

It'd be surprising if she had any other position. Hard to see a pro-Roe Republican running statewide in Iowa.

Again, a person's opinion on abortion and their opinion on "Personhood" are weakly correlated at best. Do you honestly think 60% of Mississippians are pro-choice? I wish, but no. Definitely not.

Mississippi overwhelmingly rejected this nonsense, despite being an overwhelmingly anti-abortion state, because of all of the negative secondary effects, most notably the banning of birth control pills. Notice how it was the heavily suburban counties like Rankin, Madison, DeSoto, and the coast that normally vote Republican that were hard "no" votes on the initiative. It's generally educated, middle-or-higher class women who take regular birth control pills, and those are the voters who killed it, despite normally being rank-and-file anti-abortion Republicans.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA: Ernst endorses fetal "personhood" on: October 17, 2014, 05:43:10 pm

Why would any of that have to happen? That seems like a non sequitur. I don't think that's what those bills do. Their purpose is to dismantle Roe vs Wade by guaranteeing protection to the fetus under the 14th. It doesn't follow abortion must be banned, let alone equated to 1st degree murder. They're just instrumental bills aimed at Roe vs Wade's rationale. Actually, in the text of the bill it says "However, nothing in this Act shall be construed to authorize the prosecution of any woman for the death of her unborn child". Those bills would either take abortion legislation to pre-Roe status quo ante - or simply force the court to present a different rationale, of course.

That's nice if Ernst's bill says that, but the Colorado ones didn't and the Mississippi one didn't.

Remember, if zygotes and fetuses are people, abortion has to be legal, unless the law is OK with killing people. If a zygote is a person, any medication that interferes with a zygote's implantation has to be illegal, at least among sexually active women, because a hostilized uterine wall could "kill" the zygote by refusing implantation.

Maybe you could allow BCPs to be taken by non-sexually-active women for period/hormone control, but I have no idea how that would be policed.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA: Ernst endorses fetal "personhood" on: October 17, 2014, 05:25:50 pm
Most people who are opposed to abortion don't believe that birth control pills should be illegal.

I'm not a proponent of fetal personhood, but I think its a little unfair (or purposefully deceptive) to say that the natural result is that "birth control pills" will be illegal, when the most extreme enforcement would only result in Plan B being illegal. It's like saying Hobby Lobby isn't paying for its employees birth control, when in fact it is paying for 16 out of 20 of the contraceptives Obamacare requires. Women don't take Plan B as a regular form of birth control, they use it as an emergency contraceptive after the fact. Fetal Personhood doesn't kick in until fertilization, which isn't even a factor with they daily birth control pills most women use.

Not saying that Ernst was wise in endorsing this, but if the belief is as "extreme" as you claim, then there is no need to lie about it.

Sorry, but that's just not correct. Birth control pills primarily prevent ovulation each month, but they also make the uterine wall much less likely to allow implantation if ovulation and fertilization occur. This function is mostly theoretical -- it would be very difficult to do a double-blind study on this, because BCP are very reliable at preventing ovulation -- but it is the general belief of the experts.

If a "Personhood" initiative is worded to define personhood as beginning at fertilization, then all birth control pills would have to be illegal, since they are believed to make a fertilized egg much less likely to be able to implant. In fact, that's the same status as Plan B, so if you contrived a way to make BCP legal under a "Personhood" statute, Plan B would also be legal, or they would both be illegal. It was the opinion of legal scholars on both sides of the aisle in Mississippi in 2011 that both standard BCPs and Plan B would be illegal if the initiative passed and went into effect, and even the Yes side made a point to emphasize how condoms would still be legal rather than argue the point.

You could theoretically enact a "Personhood" law that defined personhood as beginning at implantation, in which case BCP and Plan B would be uncontroversially legal, but that's not generally these things are written.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats that vote in presidential years but don't in mid-terms. Who are they? on: October 16, 2014, 09:21:42 pm
51 people voted on the University of Illinois campus in the last midterm election

That's a complete and total failure by the College Democrats and College Republicans there. Geez, the College Libertarians should be able to get 50 people to the polls by themselves...
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who has a better chance of winning? on: October 16, 2014, 09:20:24 pm
They're both in the driver's seat, but Ernst is much more likely to blow it somehow, so Gardner.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA: Ernst endorses fetal "personhood" on: October 16, 2014, 09:10:02 pm
Seems like a few people on this thread are forgetting how extreme and loony "Personhood" is -- there isn't a strong correlation between people's beliefs on abortion and people's beliefs on "Personhood." Remember, Mississippi rejected this nonsense in a landslide, and that was with national "Personhood" groups funneling so much money in the state in their desperation.

Most people who are opposed to abortion don't believe that birth control pills should be illegal. Most people who are opposed to abortion don't believe that IVF and other common fertility treatments should be illegal. Most people who are opposed to abortion don't believe that police should investigate and harass women who've had miscarriages in the same way that they would in the case of a child's accidental death.

It's one thing for Gardner to recant and apologize for formerly holding such a fringe, repugnant position. It's completely different for Ernst to double down on it. If Braley can get her on tape defending this abomination, he can flip the race around.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / IA: Ernst endorses fetal "personhood" on: October 16, 2014, 06:07:04 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/16/senate-candidate-endorses_n_5997126.html

Braley should suspend all talking points and only repeat this over and over for the next 3 weeks. If he can turn this into a major issue, he'll win.
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The "This is funny now that we know what happened" Time Machine on: October 14, 2014, 10:29:29 pm

While I got the details of how we'd get here a little wrong, it looks like I got the timing pretty much spot on, or at least better than either Harry or Mitty.

Hey now, the thread asked for the 2016 map, and I'm very likely to have gotten all 50 states right on my map.
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