Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 27, 2014, 03:53:42 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 562
76  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: what congressional district do you think has the most... on: August 08, 2014, 10:09:08 pm
- Democrats who love country music
- Republicans who love rap music

TN-5
WV-1


People who have never heard of Michael Sam
77  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Could Romney have gotten a full ACA Repeal through a democratic senate majority? on: August 08, 2014, 06:48:00 pm
It would have taken 12 Democratic traitors, not 3, to get it through the Senate, but Romney could have weakened it through executive orders.

Of course, I highly doubt Romney is truly opposed to the ACA (even today he's very proud of Romneycare), so I bet he would make some minor tweaks, spin it as a repeal, and move on.
78  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: what congressional district do you think has the most... on: August 08, 2014, 06:43:05 pm
TX-13

Most Star Trek fans
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee: Obama deserves impeachment on: August 08, 2014, 07:25:06 am
If they honestly believe Obama deserves to be impeached and aren't just trying to keep the fringe right happy, then they should try to do it, regardless of whether they have the votes.
80  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What is your primary news source? on: August 07, 2014, 11:30:18 pm
Twitter in general.
81  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Maps. All the maps. on: August 06, 2014, 11:32:11 pm
Man, the color scheme on that last map is awful.

At first glance, I assumed it was something to do with politics, since Buffet is liberal, and I believe Gates at least leans that way. And I figure most of the people on the map are probably Republicans.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: August 06, 2014, 08:08:21 pm
Here's hoping he runs as a write-in.

He can't. I mean, I guess he could tell his supporters to write him in, but he still wouldn't win, even if he got the most votes.


Any chance McDaniel hangs it up?

I think he's come too far to give up now.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: August 06, 2014, 07:39:36 pm
The MS Republican Executive Committee will not even hear McDaniel's challenge.

This is the statement from the chairman of the MS Republican Party.
Quote from: Joe Nosef
Our 52-member volunteer Republican State Executive Committee has been asked to spend just five hours listening to legal arguments and then overturn a United States Senate primary in which over 360,000 Mississippians cast votes.
It is neither prudent nor possible in a single day for any political committee to process and review the significant amount of complex evidence necessary to make such a decision, and attempting to do so would be prejudicial to both candidates.
Under these circumstances, the only way to ensure that the integrity of the Mississippi Republican Party and our election process remains intact is to have a proper, public review of this matter through the judicial system in a court of law. Both candidates have said they look forward to such a review, and now is the time.


Onto the courts!
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate on: August 06, 2014, 07:17:19 am
Again people, Silver didn't get any states "wrong" in 2012. There are supposed to be occasional upsets, unless he gives a candidate exactly 100.00% chance of winning. The fact that Heitkamp is the only candidate with a single-digit probability on election day to win actually makes his model look better than if no one ever had.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 09:27:14 pm
Does Roberts have to get above 50% to avoid a runoff, or is a plurality all he needs?
86  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Israel exist? on: August 05, 2014, 09:23:17 pm
Obviously it should continue to exist since it already does, but you can at least argue that it would have been better to create a Jewish nation out of Germany in the late 1940s rather than in Palestine.

Of course that wouldn't change the fact that Jews were already emigrating to Palestine either way back then.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate on: August 05, 2014, 09:20:20 pm
McConnell and Chambliss were ahead in the polls and won their races, but the close (non-runoff) margin in each suggests that both probabilities should have been slightly lower to be "correct"

Merkley won by much less than Hagan did in '08, so in order for the probability to be "correct", Merkley would have to be below Hagan.

Landrieu's margin was rather small (52.1 to 45.7), while Johanns's margin was significantly larger (57.5 to 40.1). If Silver's probabilties were "correct" they wouldn't have given Johanns a (slightly) higher probability than Landrieu, and Landrieu shouldn't have been at essentially 100%.

Nate Silver's model is professed to be something that can go beyond bad polling and with the use of other factors, create an authentic model with probabilities that look valid after election day. In 2008, this wasn't exactly the case.

That's not really how it works though. Just because you won by a larger margin doesn't mean you were more likely to win the day before. Elasticity is an issue. For example, Mississippi was Romney's 17th best state in 2008 by percentage of the vote, but that doesn't mean that if Romney had only won 16 states, he would've lost Mississippi, because Mississippi is a very inelastic state -- most of its citizens are committed to a party regardless of national trends.

Also, you shouldn't assume that the "actual" result is the 50th percentile result. Perhaps one candidate had a great ground game and could have easily gotten 5,000 fewer votes but really couldn't have done much more to get 5,000 more votes.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate on: August 05, 2014, 09:15:57 pm
I asked the 538 guys to look at this over Twitter and actually got a response from Harry Enten, who writes political articles for them, so maybe they'll post an analysis of past 538 probs soon.
89  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: opinion of nfl preseason on: August 05, 2014, 06:23:58 pm
I'm actually really surprised that waltermitty doesn't like the preseason.
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo: "Suddenly, Obamacare Is More Unpopular Than Ever" on: August 05, 2014, 06:17:35 pm
I was thinking more like car insurance. There's a mandated minimum policy that is set by the state. You can then add on additional liability and collision coverage, as well as separate items like loaner cars or vehicle replacement. PPACA has a mandated minimum plan, but I should be able to separately price co-pays, deductibles and service coverage beyond that minimum. Most of the complaints I heard during the initial rollout were from women with adult children but too young for Medicare. They had existing insurance that was cancelled and they found that bronze was below what they were used to, but silver had service networks below their expectation but priced up other pieces which didn't matter as much to them. Gold simply was way above their previous price point and had lots of features they wouldn't normally request of a policy that clearly drove up the cost.

That would be a whole lot of work for the actuaries, thus raising the administrative costs of the plan. How much specialization do you advocate?

The same level that I can find for car insurance. That level of flexibility involves a simple table for each feature and has not driven up car insurance costs.

Health insurance is a whole lot more complicated than car insurance. A car insurance policy is going to max out in the low 5 digits, and in the 4 digits for most people. There are all kinds of complicated induced demand factors for every feature, making the mix-and-match options not really viable. If you make everything ala carte, you have to factor in that only people who need the features are going to buy it and adjust the numbers accordingly (but avoiding the "death spiral").

ACA or no ACA, health insurance companies just aren't going to be able do that.

Having said all that, if you find the Illinois Exchange website not user-friendly enough, aren't you in the perfect position to actually do something about it for 2015? You don't seem like the "We'll never do a single thing to help Obamacare in the slightest type, even that means hurting our constituents!!!!1" type of Republican that are so widespread in DC.
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo: "Suddenly, Obamacare Is More Unpopular Than Ever" on: August 05, 2014, 06:11:29 pm
I assume that "gold" plans cover more stuff and "silver" plans have higher premiums or out-of-pocket expenses, whereas "bronze" plans must be the sort of insurance that paranoid but healthy young adults would have bought even without a mandate, and are just in case of seriously catastrophic events. 


It's ... really not that hard. The higher on the list, the more benefits a plan has (lower deductibles and copays, and potentially but not necessarily a better network), but it also costs more in premiums:

Platinum
Gold
Silver
Bronze

Anyone confused by this is trying to be confused.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV: Tennant doesn't support "most" of Obama's policies on: August 05, 2014, 06:08:47 pm
Pull ALL funding from West Virginia. Every last dollar.
93  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Citing Israel, GOP eyes Jewish vote on: August 05, 2014, 11:49:08 am
One reason American Jews are so left-leaning is that right-wing Jews disproportionately moved to Israel.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: August 05, 2014, 07:26:11 am
I'm not necessarily advocating a closed primary, just that people like myself (and most of the crossover Democrats who bailed out Thad) who have a clear and strong preference between the two parties shouldn't be able to vote in the other primary.

I see no reason why this would cause people like Jim Hood or Travis Childers to win Democratic primaries.

First all, what is "this"?

If "this" is a closed primary, then when it comes time to register with a party I seriously doubt Hoods' and Childer's political bases in places like Prentiss and Chickasaw County are going to be registering as Democrats.  

Neither Hood nor Childers have ever relied on non-Democrats to win any primary they've been in.

And I don't necessarily advocate a completely closed primary. Just that people who have no intention of voting for a party in November shouldn't be able to vote in that party's primary. If you're independent, a swing voter, or might for the primary candidate in the general, then fine, vote. But if you're 100% voting for Childers no matter what, you shouldn't be able to vote in the R primary.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate on: August 05, 2014, 07:17:35 am
Merkley had a better chance than Hagan in '08?
Yes, Merkley had a slightly higher lead in the polls in the later stages of 2008, and Oregon is a more Democratic-friendly state than North Carolina.

Begich and Landrieu had no chance at ALL of losing, but Johanns of all people had a minimal chance?
The numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number. "100%" does not necessarily mean exactly 100%, just greater than 99.5%. Functionally, there's very little difference between "100%" and "98%". Even if Silver were exactly correct in his probabilities, it would be decades before we could really see the difference in a 100% race and a 98% race.

The fact that Johanns had a slightly higher chance of getting upset (he did have a strong challenger that year and a slightly smaller lead in the polls than most of the 100%ers) than Landrieu is not really relevant.

Chambliss at almost 90%, and McConnell at over 90%?
Chambliss and McConnell had been leading the polls consistently for months. The leads were small enough that it was conceivable that the Democrat could pull off an upset, but not very likely (around 10%) each.

He did great on choosing the favorite in each race, but the chances of each outcome..not so much.
If you're going to make an assertion like that, you should back it up. What do you think probabilities should have been in each race, and based on what?

Here's a link to 538's 2008 articles: http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/senate-polls/

Begich didn't win by much given that he had a 100% chance, LOL.
Yeah, you did cherry-pick the one number on the whole board that looks suspect, but you're right. Either this was a super-rare 99th percentile event from Stevens (would should happen, but rarely), or Silver's model blew that one race. Races like this should happen, but if they aren't super-rare, it will call Silver's numbers into question.

To be fair, remember that Stevens was convicted just a couple days before the election and Begich took a 20-point lead in the polls. Apparently it was enough for Silver's model to give Begich more than a 99.5% chance. This is why I'd love to see the model applied into the past to see if he can "predict" those races too.

To his credit, I remember Silver saying shortly after the election that he'll modify the model in the future to be even less trusting of Alaska polling.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: August 04, 2014, 11:37:20 pm
I'm not necessarily advocating a closed primary, just that people like myself (and most of the crossover Democrats who bailed out Thad) who have a clear and strong preference between the two parties shouldn't be able to vote in the other primary.

I see no reason why this would cause people like Jim Hood or Travis Childers to win Democratic primaries.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate on: August 04, 2014, 11:34:45 pm
No need for any weird conspiracy theories. All of his prior probs are on the website if you search for them.

I went ahead and compiled 2008. I'll let other people take care of 2010 and 2012:
98  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Did you ever have a Lite-Brite? on: August 04, 2014, 10:19:39 pm
Yes, that thing was awesome.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate on: August 04, 2014, 10:15:07 pm
But if 1% probability events don't happen around 1% of the time, then Silver's odds aren't good. Such upsets need to happen 1% of the time. Of course it may be decades before he has enough 99%-1% calls in order to analyze how good his model is at that point (and I'm sure he'll be tweaking the model in the meantime), but so far his Senate probabilities have aligned pretty closely to real life.

He gave Heitkamp an 8% chance of victory, but that's the only winner with an ~8% chance to win, so that all looks about right. Reid and Tester were underdogs in his model too, and there have probably actually been too few upsets by his odds.

As the years go on and we get a larger sample to analyze, it may turn out that his probabilities are actually great, horrible, just OK, or anywhere in between. But right now, all we can say is that his Senate probabilities look at least decent at this point.


And he seemed to have no problem accepting the "called all 50 states!" accolades which gave him prominence even though he was "just giving odds".
Yeah, I was annoyed he didn't correct Jon Stewart when he called him "the guy who correctly called all 50 states" in the Daily Show interview, but it's not like Silver promotes himself like that. I guess Silver just isn't the statistical purist that I am since the misperceived "clean sweep" probably made him hundreds of thousands of dollars.
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should people who oppose gay marriage be banned from this forum? on: August 04, 2014, 09:53:29 pm
Had this forum been around 50 years ago, on what day would the racial segregationists have been banned? MLK's assassination?

The moment it was no longer mainstreamed (as in social acceptable to support).

That's incredibly hard to define and varied from state to state. But we can all agree that hypothetical 1950s message boards would have allowed segregationists to post, but at some point they would have been banned. At some point we'll cross that same point for gay marriage, and I think you can at least argue that we're already there. I think there's a better than 50% chance that SSM will be legal in all 50 states while Obama is still president, so maybe that will be the day.
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 562


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines