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February 25, 2017, 11:06:06 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Could Republicans and Democrats shift platforms on the LGBT? on: February 04, 2017, 08:55:48 pm
Secondly, there are the vegan, pro life, anti-death penalty conservatives out there. Not sure what their % is of the US population.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Could Republicans and Democrats shift platforms on the LGBT? on: February 04, 2017, 08:51:20 pm
Do you think in another 10-20 years, the GOP and Democratic parties will switch their platforms on the LGBT. Trump has been the most LGBT friendly president running as a Republican since the founding of the party.  

Likewise, the Democrats could be more neutral on the LGBT, by supporting of Muslim and people from the Middle East as refugees since they're for open door policy on immigration. We all know that how extreme Muslims treat women and people who are not straight.

There are pro-life LGBT people out there who like to adopt babies and kids from foster homes, neglected families or families who are financially unstable.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Can an anarchist win a Democratic presidential nomination? on: February 03, 2017, 06:19:35 pm
Correction, it should be Anarcho-Socialist...
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hicklenlooper/Moulton 2020? on: January 27, 2017, 08:10:05 pm
Hickenlooper is a boring corporatism moderate Democrat. He would get beaten in 2020. I've lived in Colorado before and know how the guy is, he can't make drastic and hard decisions well enough.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What type of county do you live in? on: January 11, 2017, 02:57:48 am
Yavapai county (Prescott, Prescott Valley, Cottonwood), Strong GOP but trended slightly Democratic.

2012:

Romney 64.04%
Obama 33.69%

2016:

Trump 62.32%
Clinton 31.10%
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: January 06, 2017, 12:26:32 pm
Redrew the state boundaries to better reflect the geographic and political regions.

- Western Colorado and southern Utah became Arizona.
- Colorado becomes smaller and concentrated in mountains and front range.
- Southern Colorado becomes part of New Mexico.
- Eastern New Mexico becomes Texas.
- Southern Arizona (Phoenix, Tucson) part of California.
- East Oregon and Washington now Oregon.
- West Utah part of Nevada.
- Southern Idaho part of Utah.
- East Nebraska becomes Iowa. Eastern Colorado becomes part of Kansas.
- Pan handle of Nebraska becomes Wyoming.
- Pan handle of Florida is now Alabama.


Clinton - 273
Trump - 263

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: At this stage, could the GOP nominate an openly gay candidate as President? on: January 04, 2017, 04:11:36 pm
Of course. Ever heard of Milo Yiannopoulos?

8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will repealing Obamacare be Trump's death wish? on: January 04, 2017, 02:14:27 pm
The country was running fine without Obamacare in the past, he can repeal it and we will keep on churning along.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county? on: December 31, 2016, 11:14:28 pm


Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.


It's definitely nothing like Wyoming,  there's some similarities to Colorado.   It has way more Native Americans then either one for starters, and much more of a military presence too.  

Wyoming is also almost exclusively rural, while Arizona does have a few smaller cities (Flagstaff, Yuma, etc).  
Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are similar:

- Ranchers, cowboys, western culture and some agriculture.
- Both big states
- Rural areas are conservative
- Have similar medium sized cities. Cheyenne, Casper are a lot like Prescott and Prescott Valley in population. Laramie Wyoming is a smaller version of Flagstaff.

Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are NOT similar:

- Arizona has two large metropolitan area, Phoenix and Tucson. Wyoming does not have either.
- Arizona has more Native Americans and Latinos.
- Wyoming has more natural resource jobs in oil fields and mining
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When will Democrats win the presidency again on: December 31, 2016, 06:08:10 pm
Probably 2024, seems like both parties get their usual 8 years in office.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county? on: December 31, 2016, 05:52:09 pm
Pima County swung ~7 points to the left from 2012 while Maricopa swung ~8 points to the left, so I'd say they are relatively correlated. If you assume the Democrat wins Maricopa by the same margin Trump won this year, that would be a ~6 point swing left, and so if Pima swung by a similar magnitude, I think it would be enough to flip the state. I'm not saying this is actually likely though.

Also, why would those counties you mentioned have a large uptick in turnout but not the rest of the state?
- Dissatisfied GOP voters living in Phoenix moving to nearby counties
- Influx of new retirees moving from out of state to other non-Phoenix/Tucson cities
- Trump bringing blue collared jobs not in Maricopa/Pima counties

Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county? on: December 31, 2016, 03:55:03 pm
Not necessarily, this could be his winning map in 2020. Increase turnout to 70% in Yavapai, Pinal and Cochise counties.

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county? on: December 31, 2016, 03:37:50 pm
Looking at the results of the AZ 2016 election map, I think Trump could win without Maricopa county, but it would be a a fine line to cross.  He would have to increase turnout in Mohave (Kingman), Yavapai (Prescott, Prescott Valley, Cottonwood) and Pinal (SanTan, Florence, Coolidge) counties.

Maricopa county:

747,361 Trump 47%
702,907 Clinton 44%

Trump only won with 44,454 votes in Maricopa alone. If you give those all to Clinton instead, she would win Maricopa county but still lose the state by 2,306 votes in Maricopa alone. That makes Trump and Clinton at 48%

How does Trump gain more voters in Maricopa county in 2020?

14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Orange County, CA be titanium D in 2024/2028? on: December 31, 2016, 01:26:35 pm
Why not go all out and just put a wall around California and make it a ONE PARTY country? Let the people vote on it and congress vote.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Ivanka Trump 2024? on: December 17, 2016, 12:55:40 pm
What are your thoughts of Ivanka Trump running in 2024 as 1st female president to get elected?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post your preliminary prediction and see how close it was in 2020. on: November 24, 2016, 10:39:31 pm
If Trump does well, he adds NV + CO + MN to his side.

Trump - 331
Generic Democrat - 207

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: It's the year 2050. Which states will have had the longest R/D streak? on: November 20, 2016, 03:44:41 am
Democrats will hit their peak with California voting D by 2050 or 2060, then it will either trend right or the GOP will change their policies that will alter the political landscape.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats will lose in 2020 on: November 18, 2016, 11:45:32 pm
Pick a pro-life, tax cuts, pro business and anti illegal immigration Democrat, I will vote for him/her.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump 2020, like Carter 2.0 or Nixon '72? on: November 18, 2016, 06:16:45 pm
Does anybody think Trump in 2020 will run an election like Carter 2.0 or end up being a Nixon of 1972?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So it looks like Minnesota will be the state closest to the national pop. vote on: November 18, 2016, 02:58:09 pm
Sooner or later, MN will vote for the GOP president. It can't be a red state forever.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Maricopa county AZ gave Trump the most votes on: November 18, 2016, 02:54:47 pm
Not all urban areas are meant to be a stronghold for the Democratic party.

http://www.12news.com/news/politics/maricopa-co-gave-trump-the-most-votes-of-any-county-in-the-us/352417239
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump may have won Pueblo county in CO. on: November 18, 2016, 01:59:19 pm
Looks like Trump did win Pueblo county. New record broken, last time GOP won was in 1972.

http://pueblovotes.com/images/PCED/2016/General/ElectionSummaryReport_11_16_2016.pdf
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's still Her Turn on: November 13, 2016, 02:25:16 pm
Keep on bashing middle America, working class and conservatives. Clinton's second shot will make it a Reagan landslide in 2020 for Trump.

We are tired of your sh**t.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump may have won Pueblo county in CO. on: November 12, 2016, 05:03:41 am
If he holds onto the lead of 136 votes in Pueblo county, it will be the biggest upset since 1972.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/11/donald-trumps-support-from-blue-collar-colorado-voters-led-to-upset-in-a-democratic-stronghold/
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Trump pull off this map if he makes ALL promises in 2020? on: November 11, 2016, 10:11:52 pm
Don't we already have a wall on a majority of the border, and there's no TPP to end if we don't have it. No war is also easy if you're not a warmonger.
So some of those are easy.

But I-70 to San Francisco built in 4 years? LOL!

I'm dreaming, it could be done if enough man power was available.

The most direct route would be through Yosemite. LOL, not happening.
- I-70 routes northwest to US 50 in west Utah
- Cuts through or near Ely Nevada
- Convert US 6 into I-70 to CA border
- Fork north from Benton, CA onto SH 120 (goes north of Yosemite NP)
- Connect with  US 395 to Fales Hot Springs
- Continue west on SH 108 west until Manteca, CA
- Merge with I-205
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