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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Does Trump need CO to win the election? on: Today at 02:06:03 pm
Does Trump need CO to win the election? It seems like the way CO is trending, becoming another California lost to the GOP unless another realignment happens.  

The last time a Republican won without CO was the 1908 election, William Taft vs William Bryan.

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Who will be President in 2024? on: Today at 03:28:29 am
Cory Gardner?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Thousands of Sanders Supporters take to the Streets in Philadelphia on: Today at 03:23:56 am
Will this protest become like the 1968 DNC protests?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Maricopa County (AZ)/Lincoln Strategy Group (R): Trump+9 on: July 23, 2016, 03:34:20 pm
Arpaio will probably retire before he loses an election. As far as Maricopa county, it will vote like the 2012 election, but Trump will probably get 1-2 less points than Romney did.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the Clinton/Kaine Logo? on: July 23, 2016, 03:06:57 pm
The H logo should be pointing left since they're left wing.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Guess the locations of the 2020 conventions on: July 18, 2016, 12:36:53 pm
GOP: Seattle
DEM: Tulsa, OK
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NMB Research: AZ GOP Primary - McCain 47 Ward 22 on: July 17, 2016, 01:16:23 am
McCain needs to retire, need fresh new ideas not stale people.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Strategies 360: Trump+5 in Maricopa County, AZ on: June 24, 2016, 11:17:34 pm
Maricopa County may be the most conservative giant metropolitan county in America, as it contains the sixth-largest city in the US.

If it goes from having a 10% R margin to having a 5% R margin, then it can swing the state.

I'm guessing that Arizona is getting lots of people moving out of California, and those recent Californians are bringing their politics with them. See Virginia eight years ago for a similar phenomenon.

The problem is, they don't want to assimilate to the new area, but change the demographics with their old voting habits.  If I was a Californian and moved to Arizona, I want to assimilate to the politics and culture, not try to change it. Isn't that the entire point of moving?  What you have here is an endless cycle.

The fortunate thing, I'm a Coloradoan and moving to Arizona, not going to change the way the state is ran, unlike Californians and east coast people.

The culture isn't that different between Phoenix and Los Angeles. Politics? Why should someone who goes from western Texas be obliged to change his political values just because he has gone to a big northern urban area? If I had to move to the South do you think that I would start flying the Flag of Racism?

Politics dovetail with values, and change in one's political values comes slowly if at all. Maybe one says something like "I didn't leave the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party left me"


It isn't a matter of me changing my politics, its a fact that I won't move to an uber liberal urban area and adopting the local politics. There are liberals out there who refuse to move to a conservatives state.  Same thing with myself, I don't identify with the Republican party or Democratic party. Both are worthless in my opinion.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Strategies 360: Trump+5 in Maricopa County, AZ on: June 24, 2016, 10:52:40 am
Maricopa County may be the most conservative giant metropolitan county in America, as it contains the sixth-largest city in the US.

If it goes from having a 10% R margin to having a 5% R margin, then it can swing the state.

I'm guessing that Arizona is getting lots of people moving out of California, and those recent Californians are bringing their politics with them. See Virginia eight years ago for a similar phenomenon.

The problem is, they don't want to assimilate to the new area, but change the demographics with their old voting habits.  If I was a Californian and moved to Arizona, I want to assimilate to the politics and culture, not try to change it. Isn't that the entire point of moving?  What you have here is an endless cycle.

The fortunate thing, I'm a Coloradoan and moving to Arizona, not going to change the way the state is ran, unlike Californians and east coast people.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Strategies 360: Trump+5 in Maricopa County, AZ on: June 24, 2016, 09:34:52 am
If Maricopa county votes for R or D, so goes the state?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Does the GOP need to adjust their party platform? on: June 23, 2016, 02:18:53 pm
By all means, with the way the GOP is running, I'm going to start calling them the Whig Party.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RIP Dr. Marc Allan Feldman on: June 23, 2016, 11:55:11 am
Such a shame, what was the cause?

He was #3 on my isidewith.com who I matched up the most politically, after Ted Cruz and Austin Petersen.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders "it doesn't appear I'm going to be the nominee" on: June 22, 2016, 03:05:51 pm
He would be smart and join the Green Party with Jill Stein.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Does the GOP need to adjust their party platform? on: June 22, 2016, 02:39:07 pm
Either the GOP changes its party platform, or they will become the new Whigs and the Libertarians or a new party is formed.

The country cannot survive with a one party system.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Does the GOP need to adjust their party platform? on: June 22, 2016, 11:31:20 am
When will they go to their platforms before 1960s, during the Eisenhower years?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT-Dan Jones & Associates/UtahPolicy.com: Trump+9 on: June 22, 2016, 11:30:35 am
This gives Johnson an opportunity to make some gains in Utah with how both candidates are weak in the state.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state will Trump have a harder time flipping? on: June 21, 2016, 03:28:55 pm
PA
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Clinton-Trump-Johnson on: June 21, 2016, 01:04:19 pm
Using yellow for the Green Party?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue? on: June 21, 2016, 12:57:49 pm
Why 2030 and 2034?
I screwed up, it's supposed to be 2032 and 2036.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson win Utah? on: June 21, 2016, 11:39:50 am
What exactly about Johnson would appeal to Utahns?

He hiked the tallest peaks on all 7 continents, hiked Mt Everest with a broken leg, he's a triathlon athlete. He'll appeal to a lot of outdoors men people in National Parks, fitness voters and yoga women.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: More likely to flip? on: June 20, 2016, 12:25:10 pm
CO
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue? on: June 20, 2016, 12:22:27 pm
Lets say Hillary wins the November 2016 election comfortably against Donald Trump. She barely wins in 2020 against a moderate GOP nominee.

I'm sure the country will want to go in a different direction after 16+ years of the same party in office.  How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue sets in?  Will there be a backlash against the Democratic party similar to Bush when he was unpopular during his 2nd term in office from '04-'08?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gary Johnson's best state? on: June 19, 2016, 05:42:47 pm
Utah, followed by Montana. 3rd place is New Mexico.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Is Donald Trump a Democratic plant in the GOP? on: June 18, 2016, 04:40:00 pm
Does anybody think Donald Trump is running in the GOP to purposely sabotage the party and cut deals to get Hillary in office?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Must Win" Trump States on: June 18, 2016, 12:18:43 am
If we assume OH, PA, VA, FL, IA and CO are the six most competitive states and Clinton wins VA and Trump wins CO, then Trump MUST win FL and PA. If Clinton wins VA and CO then Trump MUST win FL, OH and PA.

BUT, if we add AZ and assume Clinton wins AZ and VA, then Trump MUST win OH, PA, FL and CO.

So the map says Trump MUST win these states:

1. FL (if Clintons wins VA and FL, she wins)
2. PA (if Clinton wins VA and PA, she wins)
3. OH (if Clinton wins VA and OH, Trump will need FL, PA, IA and CO to win)
If Trump wins CO, he's winning AZ. Not the other way around.

CO is not actually all that Hispanic.  In a realignment scenario, I could see the Democrat narrowly winning AZ while barely losing CO.  Heck, it happened to Bill Clinton in 1996.
You have to remember, AZ was more Democratic than purple battleground CO in 1996. AZ trended hard GOP after the 2000 election, while CO stayed purple in 2004. AZ in 2004 was lean GOP.

1996:

AZ - Clinton 46.52%, Dole 44.29% = 2.23%
CO - Clinton 44.43%, Dole 45.80% = 1.37%

2000:

AZ - Gore 44.67%, Bush 50.95% = 6.28%
CO - Gore 42.39%, Bush 50.75% = 8.36%

2004:

AZ - Kerry 44.32%, Bush 54.77% = 10.45%
CO - Kerry 47.02%, Bush 51.69% = 4.67%
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