Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 08, 2016, 02:04:52 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 133
151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Marco Rubio as the Establishment's Standard Bearer on: November 21, 2015, 03:33:29 pm
If you read about Rubio's career in Florida, the guy has always been extremely personally ambitious. His challenge to Crist from the right and then affiliation with the Tea Party was always more a marriage of convenience than anything else. It was the way to statewide office. Then, after the GOP announced they needed to win over Latinos to win back the White House, Rubio led the effort to create a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, an effort he then renounced when it turned out to be hurting his presidential ambition. That's all normal behavior for a politician and ultimately the establishment welcomes it because they know a company man when they see one: the same reason they liked Jeb Bush, who they probably respected and trusted more to run the country. So roughly Rubio was Plan B (or C) and they've been caught off guard by the failure of Bush and Walker as candidates and the success of Trump, Carson and now Cruz so Rubio is more than acceptable to them.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Requirement for next debate on: November 20, 2015, 05:59:23 pm
Wouldn't Jindal have made primetime if he'd stayed in on account of his Iowa #s?
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Team Hillary cracks the whip on comedians and their venue that made fun of her on: November 20, 2015, 05:23:10 pm
I am just passing it along. Calm down guys. This over-psychological analyzing of my motives gets tedious. And just because a mag has a bias, and is an opinion journal, does not mean per se that whatever they have in it is factually false. But then you already knew that.

The same story is in the Daily Mail.

Oh, an actual literal tabloid!

Listen, the National Review or the John Birch Society Reader or whatever might reference an actual story.  If they talk about a NYT or Wall Street Journal article, that would be one thing.  But, what is the source of this?  Has it been reported by any journalist?  No.  It's been reported by Republicans and tabloids because it's just unsubstantiated buzz marketing by a comedy club.

I'm sick of this crap.  Your fellow "progressive" travellers routinely post articles from left-wing websites like Talking Points Memo, Daily Kos and Mother Jones all the time.  I don't see conservatives pulling the same "I don't believe it" crap that you leftists do whenever a conservative quotes from a conservative source.

This happened.  Is there any reason to believe no call was made?

No. Is there any reason to think someone on Hillary's campaign made a call? The Clintons are in their 3rd decade of being made fun of and have never done anything that remotely stupid. On the other hand, dirty tricks and false flag stuff happens all the time like the cop who tried to frame BLM with his suicide and the idiot who wrote a backwards B on her face in the mirror and said it was Obama supporters (which conservative media excitedly reported until it was exposed as a sham at which point they never mentioned the story again). Also, what stories have Talking Points Memo reported that turned out not to be true. I'm not even much of a Hillary fan. In fact, I think Republcians making bogus attacks on her have hurt Sanders more than anyone since it helped rally Democrats to support her.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Team Hillary cracks the whip on comedians and their venue that made fun of her on: November 20, 2015, 03:54:20 pm
You are really wrought up about all of this aren't you? Look at it this way: now if the matter comes up out there on the Fruited Plain somewhere which Forumites run across, Forumites will know the ins and outs of the story, and that there is no evidence the alleged call came from Team Hillary, so the story is a big nothing. Isn't that just grand?

Here's what you said at first...

Well, I already knew that Hillary had a thin skin, but it may be even thinner than I thought. Yes, I know, it comes from a right wing site, and thus must be false and all, blah, blah.

I shouldn't have to fact-check you.  You should be able to look at a news story and look at it somewhat objectively.  Aren't you a lawyer or something?  Aren't you supposed to be trained to look at evidence and know what is credible? 

Yet, you thought Hillary Clinton was about to die because it was reported in a super-market tabloid?  You believed this story too.  You're acting like a gullible idiot.  I don't think you are a gullible idiot.  But, you become a gullible idiot when it involves an smear against Obama or Clinton.  It's a bad look. 

Also, could you investigate this for me?



Don't forget his estimate of 40 or 50%  chance Hillary has to drop out because of legal problems.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson did research on brain tissue from aborted fetuses in 1992 on: November 20, 2015, 01:44:29 pm
May I humbly suggest a scenario to root for? Since this will probably sink Carson and Fiorina's pro-Islam speech will probably sink her, the Cruz surge is probably coming. We want to see him stubbornly trail only Trump by only 5 points after he has made such a big show of (a) declining to attack anyone (b) cozying up to Trump. And then a frantic Cruz vs Trump to close out the year? That's fun.

This could sink Carson. No one gives a crap about Fiorina saying nice things about non-al Qaeda Muslims outside some Washington Express writer and Democrats on Atlas though.

I think the opposite is true. Democrats on Atlas don't care about it. A GOP primary electorate who fears Sharia Law will imminently replace the Constitution would care if she gets enough momentum for an opponent to promote this.

No Republican politician is going to launch an openly racist attack on her for saying that not all Muslims are bad.

Famous Mortimer, is there anything you would like to say to the board?

It turns out this was unnecessary to derail Fiorina but had she otherwise been able to maintain momentum and been where Carson is now, this would have been the scandal that ended her. (Likewise, it seems Carson getting caught as a serial liar and Ted Cruz hitting all the right notes might make it superfluous to hit him on fetal tissue research.) Anyway, the reason I dug this up was because I think the hypothetical scenario I posed in the initial quote is coming to frightening fruition. Trump is in Cruz's way and so Cruz will have to comically reverse himself on his Trump praise and self-righteous vow to refrain from attacks. Better than that, Rubio echoed the same ostensibly noble sentiment as Cruz and they've been furiously trading shots. Fun stuff.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Requirement for next debate on: November 20, 2015, 01:26:43 pm
Paul is right on the bubble and Fiorina is pretty close, which itself shows that debates have much less value than people believe. Fiorina was excluded from the first Primetime debate with a much, much bigger audience than the kiddie table. Despite that, she got promoted to the big show, "won" the debate as much as any candidate has won a debate so far as the consensus is concerned, and now is struggling to keep her polling high enough to qualify for a primetime debate. Meanwhile, Christie was demoted and now will come back. It all adds up the debates not meaning much.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio's ISIS strategy? Start a Civil War in Iraq (???) on: November 20, 2015, 07:35:58 am
3 state solution under Biden's 2006 plan is the nuclear option for Iraq

Biden's oft-ridiculed plan that now doesn't look so bad.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary: Muslims Have Nothing To do With Terrorism on: November 19, 2015, 10:53:48 pm
All she had to do was add "the vast majority of" and even strengthened it with "deplore Daesh". For some reason, she often misses what should be a lay-up of an uncontroversial statement.

159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Sherrod Brown finished as a VP prospect? on: November 19, 2015, 03:02:39 pm
Where to draw the line between terrorists and other mass murderers? Is Dylann Roof a terriorist?

He's a terrorist. Sherrod Brown was never a VP prospect.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Rubio the strongest Republican presidential candidate since Reagan? on: November 19, 2015, 02:35:48 pm
He's the strongest third place candidate since Liddy Dole.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are Sandernistas so obsessed with BERNIE? on: November 16, 2015, 11:26:29 am
People are fed up with the extent to which powerful corporations control government and policy to their benefit at the expense of everyone else. So when most everyone else is ignoring that and someone comes along who is driven to correct that problem, they attract support.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Julian Castro ready to be president on day one?** on: November 15, 2015, 02:26:43 pm
Castro will be picked. Hilda Solis or Kaine wont be picked. Solis being a female, and Kaine voted for Fast Track. And a host of GOP govs represents Dem senators. Castro is 40 and excites y2k generation.

Does Castro actually excite the y2k generation?

Not as much as Sanders or Warren who, combined, are 100 years older than Castro.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Paris tragedy bring an end to silly season in the GOP primary? on: November 14, 2015, 11:59:19 am
This won't directly affect the general election but the chain of events that follows might.

Tonight, Sanders is likely to say that the Iraq War which Hillary voted to authorize played a big part in the regional instability that helped foster the rise of ISIL. But she'll probably avoid damage.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's all over. It's November, and Hillary leads 59-32. on: November 13, 2015, 09:38:08 am
Hillary is the clear favorite, but yeah too many people act as if there is a single national primary or something.

Which makes the comparison to '08 more disillusion. Even if the distance between Clinton and Sanders is the same as between Clinton and Obama at the same time in '08, Clinton is clearly in a stronger position in Iowa this time than she was in '08. If Sanders can't score some early victories the same way Obama did his momentum will pretty quickly fizzle.

When DMR had Sanders within 7 in Iowa and his polling average was ahead of her in NH, I thought he had a small but not insignificant chance. The effect of Sanders defeating her in IA and NH both is unpredictable. His support level from minorities could change since it's mostly driven by them not knowing who he is. There's not the same kind of room for growth that Obama had with black voters- and Hillary handily beat Obama with Latinos- but they don't dislike him or anything.That said, I'm more bearish now that she has widened her lead in Iowa. The House Republican Benghazi Committee set out to destroy Hillary's campaign and ended up destroying Sanders.

 



165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How bad was Kasich's performance tonight? on: November 11, 2015, 12:02:47 pm
Why not make a strong play for Republicans who don't care about immigration? Kasich isn't going to pull voters from Trump. May as well target Rubio and Bush supporters and try to surge in NH. Seemed like his strategy and he did fine.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Julian Castro is on Clinton's,shortlist for VP on: November 10, 2015, 05:01:30 pm
That's a lot of replies without anyone pointing out that there's no evidence Castro is on her shortlist or that she even has one yet.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Prediction: Carson may overtake or tie with Trump after tonight debate on: November 10, 2015, 10:42:38 am
Aren't they already tied. Also, debates don't really matter.

The now isn't what matter.  Many across different forums and sites think Carson may going down big time for this.  While I think he may probably even increase in the poll and/or stay exactly where he is at.

I agree Carson probably won't be hurt by any of this and may be helped.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Prediction: Carson may overtake or tie with Trump after tonight debate on: November 10, 2015, 10:38:59 am
Aren't they already tied? Also, debates don't really matter.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mike Murphy (head of Bush’s Super PAC) threatens “wave of attacks” on Rubio on: November 10, 2015, 10:30:21 am
why the hell do they say this stuff publicly? it's asinine... just like when jeb's camp leaked 24 hours before the debate the exact line of attack jeb was going to use against rubs

Not to mention wasting the element of surprise against Baby Hitler.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: McClatchy-Marist National GOP Poll: Carson, Trump leading on: November 09, 2015, 06:29:05 pm
Feels like recent polls have been uncommonly consistent and those Trump, Carson and Rubio numbers keep repeating (though Cruz feels slightly lower and Bush slightly higher than other recents). That Fiorina number given the strong consensus she won the September debate continues to dispel the idea that debates are game-changers. Not to mention their ratings keep falling.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders: Clinton flip-flops a “character issue” on: November 09, 2015, 08:30:59 am
He said he was sick and tired of hearing about the emails. He didn't say the FBI/DOJ investigation should end.

I just wish politicians of all stripes would get it in their heads that the proper response to a question about anything related to an ongoing investigation is "I'm sorry, but due to the fact that there's an ongoing investigation on that subject, I won't comment at this time." Simple, right? But democrats can't seem to do it, republicans can't seem to do it, heck, the sitting president can't seem to do it. My objection is not to the change in Mr. Sanders' response, my objection is that he (and many others) feel the need to play politics with what I believe to be a very serious matter: those damn emails.

That's the right response for someone who is involved in the investigation which Sanders is not. All he did was the minor step of correcting the misunderstanding that he opposes an investigation.

Going after her constant flip-flops is the bigger thing and stems from the entire reason Sanders is running. Remember this is a guy who is in his 70s, never run for president before, tried to pressure Obama from the left during his presidency, and didn't get in this time until Warren insisted repeatedly she wasn't running. Which is to say, unlike almost every other candidate for president, Sanders appears to be driven by issues not personal ambition. His forum appearance was telling. He laid off Hillary almost entirely and in answer to his dream non-politician job said president of CNN, which wasn't about fun but affecting the national conversation. Sanders doesn't really expect to win the nomination but he wants to move Hillary to her left and pressure her to stay there.

She might end up being a better president thanks to American hero, Bernie Sanders.


















 

172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What Are Your One Year Out Predictions? on: November 08, 2015, 06:06:14 pm
The least change from the previous presidential election results in the last 100 years.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pro-Cruz PAC slams Rubio in Iowa ad on: November 08, 2015, 01:57:38 pm
Whatever happened to the strategy of only going after Clinton in order to avoid giving Dems and the media talking points against the nominee like they did in 2012?

It never existed.  Campaigns attack primary opponents approximately 100% of the time. Even Bernie Sanders, who doesn't seem like he wants to be president all that much, got his hands dirty. In the age of SuperPACs, it's easier for guys like Cruz and Rubio pretending to be magnanimous while attacks are leveled on their respective opponents but it's also bulls--t. That said, it's clear Bush should have done a similar thing instead of his botched attack on Rubio. Instead he walked into a trap and allowed Rubio to flatten him while pretending to be above attacks. There was a way for Bush to land a glove on Rubio in that exchange but he botched it.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has any non-incum 3 years out ever been better set-up than Hillary? on: November 08, 2015, 11:21:42 am
1 year out, still looks like a pretty easy path.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders vs. Rubio on: November 08, 2015, 10:20:40 am
People here are exaggerating the number of swing voters left in America. They're a steadily shrinking slice. People are also exaggerating the extent to which swing voters would go for Rubio, who upon even a little scrutiny, would alienate many of them as much or more than Sanders. This isn't to say Rubio couldn't win, just that Sanders isn't unelectable. And I've said the same about Ted Cruz the other way. Fundamentals matter more than candidates.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 ... 133


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines