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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - August 2014 on: August 31, 2014, 03:53:46 pm
Because I am trying hard to procrastinate and found it a tad suspicious that Paul's support should have jumped so much this month when nothing really changed, I went through the comments here and counted 30 people who made a specific prediction within. Only 5 of the 30 predict Paul, that's about 16%, a little less than the slice Paul got in last month's poll, even though his vote total is 28% or whatever.  In other words, not only are Paul's numbers inflated by people predicting him just because they like him, but it also looks to me undeniable that Paul folk are creating fake users to stuff the ballot. Perhaps this was all orchestrated by that Rand Paul/Mitch McConnell campaign manager who's about to go to jail for corruption? Anyway, this poll is even more meaningless than I thought before.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: August 30, 2014, 05:40:50 pm

Kasich was never going to run, as much as he wanted too.  If he did, he'd get demolished.  On the other hand, Portman may well run and if he is the nominee, I could definitely see him beating Hillary Clinton, O'Malley, etc.  He's not unbeatable or anything and isn't even unbeatable in Ohio, but a Portman candidacy would scare me infinitely more than Jeb, Christie, Rand, grumpy SoCon candidate #83, Rubio, etc.  He'd be an extremely electable candidate and comes across as a pretty reasonable guy despite being quite right-wing (particularly on economic issues).  Plus the gay marriage thing will give him tons of Moderate Hero cred.  Thankfully, I doubt he can make it through the primaries (although far from impossible given that the big business wing always beats the SoCon wing when the two have their quad-annual clash during the GOP Presidential primaries), but if he does, he's got at least 50-50 odds against any of the Democrats being talked about.

Someone who supports gay marriage will never be able to win a GOP primary in 2016, no matter how much establishment support they have. 2020 or 2024, perhaps.

Name me one time where the big business wing has not been able to get any of its candidates that cycle the Republican Presidential nomination because of SoCon opposition.  Santorum, Bachmann, Robertson, Buchanan, Huckabee, etc, etc all had their moments, but ultimately lost.  Even George W. Bush was closer to the big business wing than the SoCon wing when you really think about it.

They preferred Giuliani and Romney to McCain. It's true Romney won next cycle despite his Mormonism but there were other factors and no reason to think Portman would do as well in 16. Also no reason to think Kasich will stay out if Portman wants to run.
153  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Obama is distant, aloof, weak and absent on: August 30, 2014, 12:51:33 pm
If past presidents had ever golfed, we probably would have long ago seen Russia act aggressively, Islamic radicals overthrow the Shah, conflict between Israel and Arabs and maybe even disease outbreaks.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nobody noticed, but Hillary Clinton made the boldest comments on Ferguson/race on: August 30, 2014, 12:35:00 pm
Civil rights are going to be a campaign issue for her I think.
That would be the smart move to make.
It would be the RIGHT move, but I'm not convinced at all that it would be the politically smart move. The minority vote is already in her pocket and it might alienate white working class voters who might otherwise be more inclined to vote for her than Obama.

However, it is DEFINITELY the smart move for Rand Paul given that he is a republican who cannot be labeled as a tree-hugging librul.

The irony is Hillary is playing for the primary and Rand Paul for the general despite her being in an exponentially stronger position to get her party's nomination than he is.
155  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Obama is distant, aloof, weak and absent on: August 29, 2014, 04:20:00 pm
He's not golfing anymore but he's still dressed like he is.  If you want to send a message to the ebola virus that there will be a price to pay for your behavior, don't do so in a khaki suit if you want to be taken seriously.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul: US interventionists abetted rise of ISIS on: August 28, 2014, 02:14:36 pm
Some of the Rand Paul-Hillary Clinton debates would actually be interesting. Too bad they're never going to happen.

It'd be interesting to see the response of partisans whose views on the Iraq War were closer to the original ones of the opposing party's nominee, but I agree it's unlikely we'll ever see it happen.  But I do think we are fairly likely to see Hillary debating a Democrat like Sanders or Schweitzer advocating a foreign policy that's lighter on intervention. But that debate would probably be much more muddled than what people here imagine it to be; I don't think even the non-interventionist would be adamantly opposed to airstrikes against ISIS and even Hillary would say the Iraq War was a mistake.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DREAMers crash Rubio appearance at GOP fundraiser in South Carolina on: August 28, 2014, 01:44:38 pm
It's rational for any Republican running for president to try and make himself electable in both the primaries and the general. It's just that you're most likely to make yourself unelectable in both.
158  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: ME-PPP (Bellows): Collins dominating on: August 26, 2014, 09:41:29 pm
Great news for people who like sharing highways with sleeping truck drivers.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/truck-driving-safeguards-come
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Realistically, could anyone beat Hillary in a primary? on: August 26, 2014, 11:37:33 am
Russ Feingold could beat her. I don't know that anybody else could.

I agree Feingold would be her strongest opponent but she'd still be a heavy favorite and he'd be a heavy favorite for his old senate seat. I assume he'll opt for the latter race, especially with Republicans winning  seats if not control of the senate in a couple months.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders in 2016 on: August 26, 2014, 10:30:20 am
I'll repeat what I said on the Rand Paul thread: Sanders is similar to Paul on every issue that supposedly gives Paul appeal outside of the GOP (foreign policy, civili liberties), so the race would come down to economic policy. On the role of government, America loves the word libertarian much more than the word socialist so Paul would poll well ahead. Until they eventually had a debate and America realized they didn't understand what those words meant, at which point Sanders would beat Paul easily.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul: Democrats are afraid I'll run on: August 25, 2014, 11:26:16 pm
People don't vote on foreign policy though.

President Kerry agrees.

Are you referencing the primary when the stronger war opponent lost to suggest Paul can win the GOP primary or the general election when the stronger war opponent lost to suggest Paul can win the general election?

*Hillary will run against war FYI. I mean, FDR did too, and W ran against nation-building but still...


Most Americans want to be thin, too. That doesn't stop them from eating that pizza and chocolate cake.

In real situations, Americans cheer for war when it's on the table.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/pew-research-libertarian-study

Quote
Libertarian" conjures anti-interventionism in foreign policy and absolutism in civil liberties. Think of Paul's now-famous filibuster of the nomination of CIA director John Brennan over the possibility of military drones being used on U.S. soil.

But Pew's research showed striking departures from the expected party line. Libertarians were more likely than the general U.S. population to say that it is better for the United States to have an active role in world affairs, according to the Center.

The libertarian movement is growing, except we might be counting people who think libertarian means we should force other countries to have more liberty.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul: Democrats are afraid I'll run on: August 25, 2014, 10:41:42 pm
Paul would win 55-45.

Against Sanders maybe Smiley

If the argument is Paul would do well against Hillary because he'd beat her on foreign policy and civil liberties (not that I buy it), that edge would be negated against Sanders, whose economic views are much more popular than Paul's. I bet Sanders could get 55 against Paul, assuming the absence of an independent run. There of course would be an independent run but if we're saying Paul and Sanders will be the nominees, I assume the rule is pretend whatever the hell you want.

Apologies in advance for inspiring someone to start a Paul vs Sanders vs Bolton thread. I'll be annoyed about it too.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary vs. Republican vs. Sanders Scenario. on: August 25, 2014, 11:29:20 am
Who wins in this scenario?
Can Sanders fatally damage Hillary with an independent campaign?

He's already said explicitly he will avoid doing so.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul: Democrats are afraid I'll run on: August 25, 2014, 10:58:01 am
This wrongly assumes Americans are not warmongers at heart. A majority of Americans love the idea of bombing enemies and love the military.

Rand Paul will get outright booed at GOP debates during foreign policy questions.

Paul actually seems pretty skilled at using emphasis and packaging heretical ideas to make them more salable to GOP rank and file. But it's still not enough and, like anyone who wants to win, he'll flip and water down his views as much as he needs to to make it through a primary. He's already been doing this plenty. Then, if by some freakish stroke of luck, he won the nomination, his differences with Hillary  on foreign policy would be muted. And people don't vote on that anyway, as others point out, but it would affect elite opinion and you'd have Rudy Giuliani and Elizabeth Warren sitting next to each other on Hillary's campaign bus.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict who will be running one year from now on: August 23, 2014, 05:07:15 pm
If it's a Clinton-Fiorina election, Mark Halperin and John Heilemann's book about it might be called "A Difficult Choice"

166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker Scandal Returns...Alleged To Be Part Of 'Criminal Scheme' on: August 23, 2014, 11:25:36 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/us/politics/emails-show-bigger-fund-raising-role-for-gov-scott-walker-of-wisconsin.html?_r=0

Quote
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin played a greater role than previously known in arranging for wealthy contributors to donate to a powerful conservative organization in his home state as it battled a two-year campaign to recall Mr. Walker and Republican lawmakers, according to court documents released Friday.

The documents — part of a long-running investigation into whether Mr. Walker’s campaign improperly coordinated the spending of outside groups — include emails among Mr. Walker’s top aides that suggest a frenzy of fund-raising activity, including a trip to Las Vegas, to solicit unregulated contributions for the Wisconsin Club for Growth, a nonprofit conservative group, as it helped him in the successful effort to fight back recalls in 2011 and 2012.

Excited to see Walker, Perry and Christie up on that debate stage.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could a President Hillary have a Republican Congress for her entire Presidency? on: August 22, 2014, 11:17:37 pm
I really only see Dems potentially controlling the House for two years after the 2016 elections. If Dems keep the Senate majority this year, I see them holding on to it for a while, possibly her entire presidency.

I can't see how this reasoning is anything other than wishful thinking.

That her congress is the same as Obama's?
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Iraq War 3 Dominate GOP (and Dem?) Debates In 2016? on: August 22, 2014, 11:01:55 pm
Interesting comment from Rand Paul
Quote
“If you wanna see a transformational election, let the Democrats put forward a war hawk like Hillary Clinton, and you’ll see a transformation like you’ve never seen,”
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/rand-paul-warns-dems-what-will-happen-if-they-nominate-war-hawk-hillary-clinton/

Paul will be transformed into the kind of mainstream Republican who can win the nomination and Hillary will be transformed into someone who regrets her vote to authorize the Iraq War. Disagree it'll be a transformation like we've never seen.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: if Hillary doesn't run, and Republicans take back the White House on: August 22, 2014, 03:50:58 pm
People who think Clinton isn't going to run need to be banned for stupidity imo.

To each their own, but I just have that gut feeling. Same one that told me Schweitzer wouldn't go for Senate

Maybe Hillary will pass on the White House to run for that Montana senate seat.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary be chilled from running? on: August 22, 2014, 12:23:22 pm
2016 is going to be a boring by the numbers predictable election. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It's sad to say because we all want something to care about, but 2016 is going to put us to sleep.

The Republican primary will be a fun spectacle even if it has nothing to do with who the next president is.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - August 2014 on: August 20, 2014, 07:14:06 pm
Why did Bush collapse in this poll this month? Do I get the credit? What happened besides my post in the July thread arguing he had problems?

If so, let me train my sights on Rand Paul's chances this time.

Cruz is better positioned than Paul to end up the strongest insurgent candidate. The Ron Paul libertarians who will likely support Rand, despite Rand's departures from libertarianism, are an enthusiastic but small group of Republicans, smaller than the overlapping subset of the GOP: very conservative Republicans, who will likely find much more they dislike about Paul than Cruz.

It's true that the establishment would open a dam of money to stop Cruz but that's just as true of Paul. Whether it will work against either is an open question.

Regardless, both Cruz and Paul are among the likeliest Republicans to run and should both still rank ahead of people like Walker and Bush who are still solid maybes to run.

Also, why not remove these people from the poll?
Jon Huntsman   
Peter King   
Scott Brown       
Donald Trump       
Condi Rice       
Steve King       
Sarah Palin       
Brian Sandoval
Kelly Ayotte       
Mary Fallin       
Nikki Haley       
Sam Brownback   
Tim Pawlenty
Joe Scarborough       
Jeff Sessions       
Carly Fiorina
Any one of these potential candidates could run and win the nomination. It's a wide open GOP field.

No, it's wide open because there are 10-15 people who might run and could win. But everyone on that list has done nothing to suggest they'd run and/or has no chance in a primary.

As for Rand Paul, you can win with a lot of the base or a lot of the establishment suspicious of you, but both seems very tough to pull off.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary is the Democrat nominee, who might her VP be? Does it really matter? on: August 20, 2014, 06:24:48 pm
Possible nominees
- Mark Warner
- Martin Heinrich
- Sherrod Brown
- Julian Castro
- Steve Beshear
- Martin O'Malley
- Tim Kaine

All bring something different to the table but does it really matter?
I don't think the VP nominee will really matter unless he/she is a terrible campaigner or is Palin-esque.

But of those choices...
-Warner was sued for sexually harassing his female employee
-Julian Castro in inexperienced
-Steve Beshear, while good, is old and not progressive enough for today's base
-Martin O'Malley is boring and has no vision
-Tim Kaine is just off, I don't trust him

What? When did this happen?

It didn't.

Warner, like Kaine or Gary Locke, is a safe pick. She'll probably go safe in a close race. If her lead is as big as it now is, she can pick a woman (like Murray or Klobuchar) and she'll still win.

VP doesn't matter much.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016 on: August 20, 2014, 01:03:30 pm
Hillary is 10 times as likely as anyone else to be elected president:

She's almost 100% to be the Democratic nominee.
No Republican is much higher than 10% to be the nominee.
The Democratic nominee is about 60% to win the general.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans on: August 20, 2014, 12:40:45 pm
Huckabee won't even run, much less be the nominee, so...dominating!

I don't think anyone knows what Huckabee will do. Or Bush. Or Walker given the uncertainty of his re-election. And all would have a huge affect on the primaries. That's why this cycle is so hard to predict at this point, and probably will still be even once the field settles. Even Paul who looks certain to run might have to cut things short if his senate seat is at risk. And even Christie might find donors are scared off of him and skip a run.

The margin of error is 3.4%, which means we don't know who is the preferred candidate between Clinton and Huckabee, while Bush and Paul are arguably in a dead heat with her at this point.

…in North Carolina.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight: "The Rand Paul Will Win Over Young Voters Myth" on: August 19, 2014, 08:20:37 pm
Rand Paul will do exactly as well against Hillary Clinton as his father did against Barack Obama.
Poll consistently equal with her if not better?

I'm not sure. I don't bother paying attention to how either Paul would do in a general.


Then why even say anything?

Everyone seemed to be implying we'll eventually find out how Paul will do in a general election, so I thought it was worth pointing out no, we never will.
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