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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can America Handle Having an All-Woman Ticket? on: July 14, 2013, 07:31:40 am
Was on it 3 years ago!

What is the probability of the Democratic ticket in 2016 having 2 women on it?  I'd argue while unlikely not nearly as low as many would assume.  The reason being that if Hillary is the nominee, everyone will as usual engage in the parlor game of guessing the running mate and there's no way the subject would be avoided.  The press will openly look at the "list" and wonder if she could get away with picking a woman and some will clumsily insist it'd be impossible which is of course, an obnoxious assertion that would be met with serious pushback.  Men have had male VPs for over 200 years.  Why should Hillary hesitate to pick Klobuchar or Napolitano or some new female governor?

I stick by this. It'll be a thing. I don't see any way Hillary won't be explicitly asked about it and answer anything except of course she's open to it. Klobuchar, Napolitano will be mentioned. Patty Murray. Can Habitation Clause issues with Gillibrand (or Cuomo) be addressed on short notice or need advance planning to work around? (By the way, I think there's a plausible chance that gets repealed in 2016 if Bush and Clinton are nominated and are respectively interested in running with Rubio and Gillibrand or Cuomo.)

But Hillary will make her pick 2 months before the election. If she has a comfortable lead, she's probably more likely to pick a woman. If she's in a close race, she's more likely to play it safer or play her specific situation.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Schweitzer decides to NOT run for Senate, says he wants to stay in Montana on: July 13, 2013, 02:12:05 pm
He doesn't want to leave Montana. If that isn't a retirement announcement I don't know what is. I guess you can say good bye to the Clinton/Schweitzer ticket now.

I always thought his being a senator made her less likely to pick him. Unless she had no other good options, why would she open up the seat of a Democratic senator in a red state? But even more than that, Schweitzer has an independent streak and doesn't exude the loyal team player vibe Hillary is sure to be interested in. I myself don't think that rules out an Obama 2008 supporter like Tim Kaine. But it'd take a lot for her to pick someone with a risk of going off script like Schweitzer probably comes with.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has any non-incum 3 years out ever been better set-up than Hillary? on: July 11, 2013, 04:32:47 pm
Incumbent Vice Presidents are usually pretty strong. See Richard Nixon in 1957, George HW Bush in 1985 and Al Gore in 1997.

For the nomination, but no incumbent VP had been elected president in over 100 years before HW. In 85, the GOP had won 4 of the last 5, and 3 of the last 4 decisively so HW isn't a bad comparison. But I think the Dems' brand then wasn't in as bad shape as the GOP's is today so Hillary's probably in an even stronger position than he was.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has any non-incum 3 years out ever been better set-up than Hillary? on: July 11, 2013, 11:19:48 am
In 2008, she was in a better spot. She was only sixty-one, fresh off a Senate run, with people eager to kick the Republicans out of office.

Yet she lost to Obama.

Nope. She's in an exponentially stronger position to win the nomination for 2016 (basically a shoo-in) compared to 2008.

Nixon, before the '68 election.  

In the summer of 65, 3 years after Nixon lost a California gubernatorial race and 6 months after LBJ won a huge landslide, Nixon was in as strong a position as Hillary is right now? Come on.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Has any non-incum 3 years out ever been better set-up than Hillary? on: July 11, 2013, 09:48:25 am
She's not invincible but I can't think of anyone who was in as strong a position.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Out of these swing-state Senators, who's most likely to be Hillary's VP? on: July 10, 2013, 09:56:52 am
When was the last time a president was elected after choosing a swing-state senator? Romney didn't even win Ryan's congressional district. (And Kerry lost North Carolina, and Dole lost New York...) It doesn't work like everyone here seems to think it does. I guess Warner and Kaine are the most likely from the list, but less so because Virginia is (was?) a swing state but because they're both picks that would satisfy Hillary's likely actual priority that her VP pick does no harm. I agree if Hillary is in a very tight race with a big gender gap she's extremely unlikely to pick a female, but does everyone saying she could never pick a woman think that still applies if she's up by 5-10 points with 2 months to go? It's not all that unlikely a scenario.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. ? on: July 10, 2013, 09:45:09 am
Yes. Hard to see it going any other way.

On one hand, Clinton being the D nominee helps Christie since electability becomes a bigger advantage for him. On the other, maybe he'll chicken out of a run like he did against Obama who was probably easier competition than she'll be. Or maybe he regrets doing so and that makes him more likely to run.
 
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: July 10, 2013, 08:08:16 am
I think Kasich should be considered one of the more likely candidates (though still less than 50/50 to run) because (a) he's already run, from a weaker stepping stone (b) he's older than the rest. Speaking of likelihood of running, I want some credit for resisting the idea that McDonnell was guaranteed to run. (But I never posted it so you have to trust me!) I think I limited the better than 50/50 to run list to Santorum and Paul though I have to include Cruz as well. I've also resisted including Jindal. If McDonnell is the Sanford of 2016, Jindal is poised to be the Barbour (who ran but never officially). I can easily see Jindal getting no polling, no money and giving up before he starts. Funny that Kasich mentions Christie texting him. It's almost like saying. Hey, the cool kid called me. Please count me in the top tier. I think Kasich would hit even more resistance from the gun lobby than Christie would. Christie, like Pence, has called Scott Walker his role model by the way.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: TX-PPP: Cruz far ahead in home state, GOP voters want him to run in 2016 on: July 03, 2013, 11:15:29 pm
I'll take credit for calling the Cruz surge first. I'm sticking with my prediction that he'll lead a national primary poll before 2013 is out. He's already eating Rubio and could eat Paul too. But maybe his move is happening 2 years too soon.

This is of course Cruz's home state.  I'd like to see more polling elsewhere before rendering judgment on how much Cruz has surged.


You're right Texas is a distorted read but check out the last Montana. Cruz is tied with Christie and ahead of Rubio and Ryan. There's two things going on far as I can tell. The same Tea Party primary effect that's been happening down ballot the last two cycles. And this I'd say is before people are even realizing Cruz is the most conservative in the field on immigration. Second is that cable news and the Internet has I think changed the GOP. It used to be frontrunners like Reagan, Dole, Bush Jr. were easily predictable nominees 3 years out. The last 2 cycles were harder to predict with 2012 seeing debates let a lot of people surge in succession. Now, I speculate, conservatives, by definition wary of change, get familiar much faster with people who have never been national candidates. To the point where there are early signs Cruz, a senator for 6 months today, is starting to surge. He's helped himself by being a media whore. But I think it also means someone off everyone's radar could conceivably come out of nowhere to become a major player in the 2016 race. Meanwhile, it's the Democrats whose nominee is a foregone conclusion 3 years out.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: TX-PPP: Cruz far ahead in home state, GOP voters want him to run in 2016 on: July 03, 2013, 06:32:14 pm
I'll take credit for calling the Cruz surge first. I'm sticking with my prediction that he'll lead a national primary poll before 2013 is out. He's already eating Rubio and could eat Paul too. But maybe his move is happening 2 years too soon.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie's Dance to Keep Up with SSM on: July 03, 2013, 09:33:15 am
He's not just saying "if it's out of his hands". Christie is saying "please take it out my hands" because he doesn't want to touch anything controversial. He called for a referendum (as a way to appease supporters of equality while keeping his hands clean-ish for a Republican primary). But in doing so, Christie said the issue is too important to be decided by elected government. Now, last week, he says the issue should be left up to elected government. As with calling the special election, it's a flip.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The New Republic is sour on O'Malley's political skills on: July 03, 2013, 05:44:59 am
Yeah, he'd make a better Attorney General than President/VP.

That article actually made me think he's fairly likely to be VP short list. Being dull isn't that big a drawback for it.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary pick as her VP choice? on: July 02, 2013, 04:18:02 pm
Voted Biden, Kerry, Napolitano, Rice. Gore wouldn't accept.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie's Dance to Keep Up with SSM on: July 02, 2013, 09:26:22 am
I'm pretty sure Christie has no power to stop a referendum for gay marriage. He basically wants to punt and take himself out of the equation, not unlike with the senate special, and say it's not up to me. It's the safest political move given how hard it is to please either national Republicans or New Jerseyans without alienating the other. But I disagree with this article calling him consistent exactly. On DOMA, he says the judgment of the democratically elected executive and legislature should be trusted on the issue of marriage. On NJ, he says the opposite. The only real consistency for Christie is doing whatever seems to carry the least risk for a presidential campaign.  As with Obama before he "evolved", I find it pretty hard to believe Christie privately opposes gay marriage in the way Santorum or even Romney did.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: QUiCKPOLL: Who will be the 2016 Republican candidate? on: June 27, 2013, 06:37:31 pm
For whatever reason another Bush-Clinton race feels inevitable to me.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Rand Paul a libertarian?(says DOMA ruling will lead to human-animal marriage) on: June 27, 2013, 02:42:55 pm
How is Rand Paul different from the typical generic Republican of 2013?

Way more gaffes
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: HRC on China and Snowden on: June 25, 2013, 10:13:51 pm
The Gandolfini family also thanked Bill and Hillary for helping bring his body home.

Also, she tore into the sequester a couple weeks ago, which I think was her first comment on a domestic political issue in a long time.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul To Vote Against Rubio's Immigration Bill on: June 23, 2013, 06:23:09 pm
For sure, a Cruz-related adjustment.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are Chris Christie's Problems with the Republican Base Exageratted? on: June 21, 2013, 09:57:03 pm
Problem seems to be more in pundits' binary yes/no prognostication.  Some say that his problems with the base will sink him and others that he'll be fine.  Both seem so certain, with fewer than you would hope making intermediate predictions, in which his problems are a drag on his chances, but with him still having a greater than 0% chance of winning the nomination.  The field is rather divided right now in any case, so even if you think his problems with the base will *probably* prevent him from being nominated, and that they keep his chances at the nomination at being down at ~15%, 15% would still make him one of the leading candidates.  Heck, 10% would make him one of the leading candidates!

And yes, we've seen this before, with McCain and Romney.  Heck, we've even seen it in previous cycles, like with Dole in 1996, coming off of the Gingrich Congress of 1994.  Each time, you hear "Oh, this time it's different.  The party has never disliked a candidate for being a RINO so much, because they've never been this crazy and uncompromising before."

Maybe, but we'll see.  The track record is enough to make me cautious.  I certainly don't think putting Christie's chances at the nomination in the ~15% range (which again, would probably put him in the top 2 or 3 candidates) is overly optimistic.

This all sounds about right to me.

I think several things are exaggerated about Christie.

1. His odds of running. No guarantee. I think there are a few plausible scenarios where he sits it out.
2. His odds of winning NH. A poll here had everyone saying he'd win easily. Not really.
3. The impossibility of winning the nom. as Morden goes through above.
4. His crossover appeal. It wouldn't sustain.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Andrew Cuomo/Beau Biden vs Greg Abbott/Dean Heller on: June 21, 2013, 04:15:01 pm
Why not Ashley Biden?
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Rand Paul Moment on: June 21, 2013, 11:11:52 am
I think 2 things are inevitable: Paul will be one of the "finalists" for the GOP nomination, and that Rove-backed elements of the GOP will be determined that he not be nominated. There will be another more establishment-friendly sub-primary, the field of which is still very unclear because probably the 2 strongest candidates of it, Rubio and Walker, are both reportedly deferring to the decisions of their friends and statemates (and Walker has a re-election). In addition to that, I'd call Cruz one of the likeliest candidates, and he has the potential to pull voters from both of the other wings.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gallup: Among GOP, Ryan most popular 2016er and Christie least popular on: June 19, 2013, 01:01:09 pm
Is this poll good for Christie? He'll run on electability if he run but it's one thing to have appeal across the aisle and another to be more popular with the opposing party than your own.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden says Ted Cruz and Rand Paul "control the Republican party right now" on: June 17, 2013, 11:43:24 am
I'm sure the pubs are thrilled to have Biden walking around pissed off so that the Gaffe Master General will say something entirely stupid.

I do heart Joe, though.

Speaking of gaffes, Biden, Rand Paul and the Gaffe Master General, I am pronouncing a changing of the guard: Rand Paul has replaced Biden as Gaffe Master General.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul backs class action lawsuit against NSA for cyber-spying on: June 14, 2013, 02:47:17 pm
I think this NSA thing could be a big issue in 2016 as it is something where the candidates will disagree in both parties. The liberal wing of the Dems and the libertarian wing of the GOP are both opposed to it. If Hillary runs I imagine she will support it and someone from the liberal wing of the party can use it to differentiate like Obama used her vote for the war in Iraq.

Partisan voters have shamelessly reversed themselves on government spying with the party change in the White House. Republican voters who, under W strongly supported government spying, now that Obama is president, support it less than Democrats do, who largely opposed it under W.  That swing probably helps Rand Paul with the base while at the same time motivating the neocon wing of the GOP establishment to keep Paul from getting anywhere close to the White House. As Morden points out in another thread, Paul has the potential to win Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada but still lose the nomination ( I predicted Romney would make a run at that move in 2012). And I think this NSA story makes that scenario even more likely for Paul, both by making early state wins more likely for him and making party elites even less tolerant of the idea of him as nominee.





175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 DEM Straw Poll (DEMOCRATS ONLY) on: June 13, 2013, 06:49:57 pm
Since Warren has zero chances in the general, I'm supporting Hillary.

I don't get why people say this. Warren would have a better chance in a general than a primary against Hillary. Don't think she'd even try the latter. In a general, I think she'd be favored against just about all Republicans and the race would be toss-up against someone like Christie. Scott Brown had high approvals in Massachusetts and basically ran as an Independent but she beat him.
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