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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The New Republic is sour on O'Malley's political skills on: July 03, 2013, 05:44:59 am
Yeah, he'd make a better Attorney General than President/VP.

That article actually made me think he's fairly likely to be VP short list. Being dull isn't that big a drawback for it.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary pick as her VP choice? on: July 02, 2013, 04:18:02 pm
Voted Biden, Kerry, Napolitano, Rice. Gore wouldn't accept.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie's Dance to Keep Up with SSM on: July 02, 2013, 09:26:22 am
I'm pretty sure Christie has no power to stop a referendum for gay marriage. He basically wants to punt and take himself out of the equation, not unlike with the senate special, and say it's not up to me. It's the safest political move given how hard it is to please either national Republicans or New Jerseyans without alienating the other. But I disagree with this article calling him consistent exactly. On DOMA, he says the judgment of the democratically elected executive and legislature should be trusted on the issue of marriage. On NJ, he says the opposite. The only real consistency for Christie is doing whatever seems to carry the least risk for a presidential campaign.  As with Obama before he "evolved", I find it pretty hard to believe Christie privately opposes gay marriage in the way Santorum or even Romney did.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: QUiCKPOLL: Who will be the 2016 Republican candidate? on: June 27, 2013, 06:37:31 pm
For whatever reason another Bush-Clinton race feels inevitable to me.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Rand Paul a libertarian?(says DOMA ruling will lead to human-animal marriage) on: June 27, 2013, 02:42:55 pm
How is Rand Paul different from the typical generic Republican of 2013?

Way more gaffes
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: HRC on China and Snowden on: June 25, 2013, 10:13:51 pm
The Gandolfini family also thanked Bill and Hillary for helping bring his body home.

Also, she tore into the sequester a couple weeks ago, which I think was her first comment on a domestic political issue in a long time.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul To Vote Against Rubio's Immigration Bill on: June 23, 2013, 06:23:09 pm
For sure, a Cruz-related adjustment.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are Chris Christie's Problems with the Republican Base Exageratted? on: June 21, 2013, 09:57:03 pm
Problem seems to be more in pundits' binary yes/no prognostication.  Some say that his problems with the base will sink him and others that he'll be fine.  Both seem so certain, with fewer than you would hope making intermediate predictions, in which his problems are a drag on his chances, but with him still having a greater than 0% chance of winning the nomination.  The field is rather divided right now in any case, so even if you think his problems with the base will *probably* prevent him from being nominated, and that they keep his chances at the nomination at being down at ~15%, 15% would still make him one of the leading candidates.  Heck, 10% would make him one of the leading candidates!

And yes, we've seen this before, with McCain and Romney.  Heck, we've even seen it in previous cycles, like with Dole in 1996, coming off of the Gingrich Congress of 1994.  Each time, you hear "Oh, this time it's different.  The party has never disliked a candidate for being a RINO so much, because they've never been this crazy and uncompromising before."

Maybe, but we'll see.  The track record is enough to make me cautious.  I certainly don't think putting Christie's chances at the nomination in the ~15% range (which again, would probably put him in the top 2 or 3 candidates) is overly optimistic.

This all sounds about right to me.

I think several things are exaggerated about Christie.

1. His odds of running. No guarantee. I think there are a few plausible scenarios where he sits it out.
2. His odds of winning NH. A poll here had everyone saying he'd win easily. Not really.
3. The impossibility of winning the nom. as Morden goes through above.
4. His crossover appeal. It wouldn't sustain.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Andrew Cuomo/Beau Biden vs Greg Abbott/Dean Heller on: June 21, 2013, 04:15:01 pm
Why not Ashley Biden?
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Rand Paul Moment on: June 21, 2013, 11:11:52 am
I think 2 things are inevitable: Paul will be one of the "finalists" for the GOP nomination, and that Rove-backed elements of the GOP will be determined that he not be nominated. There will be another more establishment-friendly sub-primary, the field of which is still very unclear because probably the 2 strongest candidates of it, Rubio and Walker, are both reportedly deferring to the decisions of their friends and statemates (and Walker has a re-election). In addition to that, I'd call Cruz one of the likeliest candidates, and he has the potential to pull voters from both of the other wings.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gallup: Among GOP, Ryan most popular 2016er and Christie least popular on: June 19, 2013, 01:01:09 pm
Is this poll good for Christie? He'll run on electability if he run but it's one thing to have appeal across the aisle and another to be more popular with the opposing party than your own.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden says Ted Cruz and Rand Paul "control the Republican party right now" on: June 17, 2013, 11:43:24 am
I'm sure the pubs are thrilled to have Biden walking around pissed off so that the Gaffe Master General will say something entirely stupid.

I do heart Joe, though.

Speaking of gaffes, Biden, Rand Paul and the Gaffe Master General, I am pronouncing a changing of the guard: Rand Paul has replaced Biden as Gaffe Master General.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul backs class action lawsuit against NSA for cyber-spying on: June 14, 2013, 02:47:17 pm
I think this NSA thing could be a big issue in 2016 as it is something where the candidates will disagree in both parties. The liberal wing of the Dems and the libertarian wing of the GOP are both opposed to it. If Hillary runs I imagine she will support it and someone from the liberal wing of the party can use it to differentiate like Obama used her vote for the war in Iraq.

Partisan voters have shamelessly reversed themselves on government spying with the party change in the White House. Republican voters who, under W strongly supported government spying, now that Obama is president, support it less than Democrats do, who largely opposed it under W.  That swing probably helps Rand Paul with the base while at the same time motivating the neocon wing of the GOP establishment to keep Paul from getting anywhere close to the White House. As Morden points out in another thread, Paul has the potential to win Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada but still lose the nomination ( I predicted Romney would make a run at that move in 2012). And I think this NSA story makes that scenario even more likely for Paul, both by making early state wins more likely for him and making party elites even less tolerant of the idea of him as nominee.





164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 DEM Straw Poll (DEMOCRATS ONLY) on: June 13, 2013, 06:49:57 pm
Since Warren has zero chances in the general, I'm supporting Hillary.

I don't get why people say this. Warren would have a better chance in a general than a primary against Hillary. Don't think she'd even try the latter. In a general, I think she'd be favored against just about all Republicans and the race would be toss-up against someone like Christie. Scott Brown had high approvals in Massachusetts and basically ran as an Independent but she beat him.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: SC GOP on: June 12, 2013, 12:07:45 pm
You put Palin on a poll but no Cruz? I'm revoking your license to post these polls.

The correct answer is Cruz: one of (if not the) most likely Republican candidates, obviously good at attracting attention, few liabilities (from the perspective of your average South Carolina Republican primary voter).
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MI-PPP: Paul 18% Bush 16% Christie 15% Ryan 12% Rubio 11% Cruz 7% Santorum 6% on: June 10, 2013, 12:23:31 pm
In 2008, it was Huckabee for me; 2012 was Gingrich. In 2016, Cruz will be the candidate I absolutely despise and would never vote for in the General Election.

And I assume a giant chunk of 2016 primary voters will disagree with you every bit as much as they did in 2008 or 2012. I'd definitely bet on Crazy Cruz if intrade still existed. Am I the first person to make this prediction? Cruz will lead either several states or national GOP primary polling before the end of 2013.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How likely is is that the Democratic nominee will outperform Obama? on: June 09, 2013, 09:59:22 pm
It's impossible to say, since we don't know what will happen over the next three years.  But I was looking through some old election '12 stuff online today, and Steve Schmidt said something in the immediate aftermath of the 2012 election that was rather striking.  He noted that the last time a GOP presidential candidate got the same share of the white male vote as Mitt Romney did, in 1988, that candidate, Bush '41, was able to win over 400 EVs.  Romney only netted 206 EVs with that share.  Right at this particular moment, changing national demographics don't look great for the Pubs, so I would say that, with the right candidate and favorable political circumstances, it's likely.  But we know nothing of what the political landscape will look like in three years.

Yes but also you bring up the bigger reason: Hillary or whoever will get a much higher % of the white vote.

168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie riding high nationally. on: June 07, 2013, 09:56:06 am
but there really is something about him that makes me think he'd be able to bring people together in a much more real way than Obama ever could.

Christie is already having success uniting left and right.

Quote
Rush Limbaugh, who is beside himself that Christie missed the opportunity to add a Republican. “Don’t anybody tell me that Gov. Christie’s a conservative. … When 2016 rolls around and Gov. Christie is seeking the presidency, I won’t be surprised if he seeks the Democrat Party nomination,” said Limbaugh.

Quote
On Wednesday, Jon Stewart slammed New Jersey Governor, and previous "Daily Show" guest, Chris Christie for holding an expensive special election only three weeks before the general, costing the taxpayers of the state more money.

Stewart rolled 2009 footage of Christie calling such a thing "irresponsible," and then revealed that the governor may have changed his mind in an effort to improve his own chances in the November election. "That is such a self-serving, corrupt abuse of power," Stewart marveled. "I miss New Jersey so much."

Quote
But the fury toward Christie, at least among conservatives hoping to win a Senate seat in New Jersey for the first time since 1972, may linger long after the special election.
---
“We’ll remember how Christie made this impossible,” says Seth Grossman, a former Atlantic County freeholder. “He chose to survive by moving the Senate race away from his own race, which has sucked the life out of our party.”

Quote
State Democrats slammed the cost and hardship on voters associated with holding a separate special election. The decision reeked of politics, they said, because a hot race for Senate with popular Democrat and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who has been mum but is expected to run, on the ballot could bolster turnout and cut into Christie's re-election bid.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie riding high nationally. on: June 06, 2013, 11:50:00 am
Has Mike's mom and her husband weighed in on this yet?  Wink

You're joking but I think people who asked his parents how they felt actually did get more accurate results than Gallup in 2012.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your stepmother on: June 05, 2013, 07:51:53 pm
Anyone who says no is delusional. I mean, who among us can say with 100% certainty that Bill Clinton is not our biological father?
171  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Christie appoint a Republican or Democrat for Senator? on: June 04, 2013, 01:44:58 pm
"@GovChristie: I am going to be looking for somebody who will be a great US Senator, someone based on their merits. And you know me, I don't dawdle."

I'm going to say it's Kean, Sr.

Probably the prohibitive favorite. Safest handling of special election forebodes safest appointment.
172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Christie appoint a Republican or Democrat for Senator? on: June 04, 2013, 01:06:06 pm
Christie not playing politics. Good for him. I hope he selects someone who doesn't plan to run in the special. I'll be pleased if he selects Gov. Kean.

Anyways. Cory Booker has my vote if he wants it.

Of course he's playing politics. Punts in the safest way possible, spends millions of dollars unnecessarily to keep Booker from disrupting his race while claiming he's putting the state above himself.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Christie appoint a Republican or Democrat for Senator? on: June 03, 2013, 09:17:27 pm
Why is this here?

If Christie wants to run in 2016, that will dictate his pick.

Months? I don't think NJ has special elections, the appointment will last for 2 years (though I could be wrong).

The law is ambiguous. Democrats want a 2013 special. Christie is presumed to want no special because Booker being on the ballot for senator could boost Democratic turnout in the gubernatorial race too.
---

EDIT: I just voted in this poll that Christie picks an Independent but without that option I'd vote Democrat. His press conference within the hour might make me look naive but my guess is that Christie will stick with his M.O. of pissing off conservatives until he's re-elected. But I think the 2013 vs. 2016 framing for his thinking is a misnomer or faulty construction. I think 2013 is about 2016 (or else more vaguely an eventual presidential run) for Christie. There are murmurs he might try to do the special in October instead of November, but I can't imagine that will actually happen.

EDIT 2: I do look naive on 2 counts. He did schedule a special for October and the self-serving timing at the cost of tens of millions of taxpayer $ is provoking criticism from right and left. And it also looks like his rhetoric today was laying the groundwork for a Republican pick for the next 4 months.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Hillary Clinton's floor? on: June 03, 2013, 04:44:43 pm
Hillary comparisons with McCain 2008 don't add up. Hillary's party just won 2 presidential elections easily. McCain's had won 2 (or arguably just 1) barely. Republicans have time to recover but they're in much worse shape than Democrats were in 2005. McCain had an obvious pitfall ahead with his vocal support for a war that the country was already regretting by 2005. A Republican could beat Hillary in 2016 but her position now is much stronger than McCain's was in 2005. She'll also be 3 years younger than McCain was.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cory Booker on: June 03, 2013, 01:26:58 pm
Also, it's not a given that a special election will be held.
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