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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Elected to Statewide Office in 2014. National Ticket in 2016. on: May 11, 2014, 04:40:47 pm
Another example is McCain attacking Obama as inexperienced then picking newly elected Palin.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mike Pence mulls run on: May 11, 2014, 12:54:10 pm
I voted for Pence in the last couple of "who will win" threads here (I think I was the only one).  I have been saying for a while that the GOP race is wide open and ripe for additional entrants who can jump to the top tier (just like Perry did in 2011). Pence has all it takes to be in that top tier, not the least of which is the backing of the Koch brothers.

Good foresight. Sounds like Pence is thinking about it. Not sure he'll run but if so he'd quickly be top tier.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who wins IA and NH and do they win the nomination? GOP Edition on: May 11, 2014, 12:07:21 pm
I am guessing that either Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee or Mike Pence will win in Iowa, while either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush will win New Hampshire.

I think on this list only Cruz and Santorum are better than 50/50 to run right now. I think Iowans will readily dump Santorum for another so-con. He only won by default last time.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who wins IA and NH and do they win the nomination? GOP Edition on: May 10, 2014, 10:54:16 pm
Too early to say who'll win any of them.  However, Paul has a realistic shot at being the first candidate since Muskie to win both Iowa and NH, yet lose the nomination.

Last time, I called Romney might be the first Republican to win both and struggle to win the nomination (or did Ford do that in 76?). I was off by less than 10 votes! Though maybe he wouldn't have struggled as much if his Iowa win had stuck.

I also would bet against Paul being the nominee even if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. I think he's way too vulnerable. But I don't like his chances in Iowa really.

Gingrich had a decent chance to be the first Republican nominee to win neither Iowa nor New Hampshire and it's possible a less flawed candidate can accomplish that this time around. This does feel like the kind of cycle it could happen.


155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does it seem weird to you that the most of the field will have announced…... on: May 07, 2014, 09:32:54 am
It feels weird, but it is also very exciting as a political junkie.  I expect we'll have a few second- or third-tier candidates announce within the next six months before the midterms.

Maybe, maybe not.  No one announced before the midterms in 2010, so we'll just have to wait and see.  However, we should get two huge clues out of Wisconsin in November:

-Is Walker reelected?
-Does Ryan go for (and win) the Ways & Means Committee chairmanship?  (If yes, then he's probably not running for prez.)


I'd argue that if Walker loses a close race, he still could run, as he'd be free of most FEC regulations, and he'd still have a presumable base of support. (He'd probably have to lose by three or fewer for this scenario to be anywhere near realistic though)

I really don't think Walker 2016 survives a re-election loss this year. The Kochs will consider him damaged goods and look elsewhere not to mention the less conservative, big donors. If he loses narrowly, he probably just bets on a re-match, not so narrowly, he cashes in like Pawlenty. This is presuming he doesn't end up like McDonnell.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CNN: Bush/Paul lead tight field on: May 06, 2014, 08:57:12 pm
Who leads among....?

men: Paul
women: Ryan
whites: Paul
under 50 years old: Ryan
age 50-64: Bush
age 65+: Huckabee
under $50,000: Paul
over $50,000: Paul
no college: Paul
attended college: Ryan
Republicans: Bush
Independents: Paul
Southerners: Huckabee
suburban: Paul
rural: Paul

Weirdly, Bush gets 12% of those under $50k, and 11% of those over $50k, yet 13% of the total sample.  I can only assume that there were some Bush supporters who refused to say how much $ they make?

Maybe a lot of people are making exactly $50k and didn't know how to answer. Presumably, Bush is dominating among them.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Obama -> Hillary be the first left -> right succession in the same Party? on: May 06, 2014, 10:34:10 am
Hillary would be a 3rd term of Obama.  If she's on "the right," then we're really in trouble.
The million dollar question will be if Hillary is more like Obama or more like her husband. Bubba was much more fiscally conservative than Obama I don't think that could be disputed.

I dispute it. They're similar. So Hillary would be Bill Clinton's 5th term.
158  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: David Letterman retiring in 2015 on: May 05, 2014, 08:16:02 pm
I'm sure Colbert's CBS or whatever network's top choice, but I don't buy this rumor for a second (remember how Stewart was supposedly one of CBS's top choices to replace Dan Rather Roll Eyes ).  But I hope you guys realize he'd just become another hyper-censored, humorless has-been TV hack who only makes safe jokes for old people like Leno, Fallon, Letterman, etc.  CBS/ABC/NBC wouldn't offer even a sliver of the creative freedom Comedy Central offers.  If Stewart or Colbert ever move to one of those networks, anyone who hates them should uncork the champaign, because whichever one of them went to CBS/ABC/NBC will have lost all influence and come to be seen as sell-outs by most of their audience in a year or two (at most).  Stewart and Colbert have their niche on comedy central and would never be allowed to anything remotely like it on one of these creative wasteland networks.  The best person who fits in the Leno/Letterman old-people niche is Craig Ferguson (who is decent enough at what he does), but no program on CBS/ABC/NBC will even be allowed to swear, let alone do anything even remotely edgy.

First of all, let's get something straight. Late Night was created as an incredibly edgy show -- a highly creative, absurdist piece of television. It was created for a 12:30AM slot, and Letterman (correctly) figured that the network would let him do anything in that slot so long as it got ratings. He exploited the hell out of his freedom, and created a legacy by doing so.

Yeah, maybe time has taken its toll. Letterman doesn't seem edgy anymore because he's been doing the same thing for 30 years. That's understandable. But still, you have to admit that Late Night Late Show is historically a far different and more politically aggressive show than the everyman's Tonight Show.

I mean, come on -- watch this clip where he goes on a brutal rant against fracking. Seriously. This is what Letterman's been doing on CBS.

Colbert would fit in perfectly at Late Night.

Thank you. Letterman and his writers at Late Night were amazing. And he's still capable of breaking out his brilliance once in a while. Huge shoes to fill but Colbert is a great choice.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the % chance these candidates run for president? on: May 05, 2014, 10:27:51 am
75-90%
Rick Santorum
Bobby Jindal
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul

50-75%
Rick Perry
Chris Christie

25-50%
Scott Walker
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Paul Ryan
Marco Rubio

10-25%
Peter King
John Bolton

<10%
everyone else


Democrats:
75-90%
Clinton

25-50%
Sanders

10-25%
Schweitzer

<10%
everyone else
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's Hillary's trademark issue going to be? on: May 03, 2014, 10:36:57 am
Since when do presidential candidates run on a trademark issue?
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Republicans need to expand the map. Here's my proposal. on: April 24, 2014, 11:20:09 am
I agree. Winning enough electoral votes to win the White House is a foolproof strategy.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would the upsides and downsides be of Tim Kaine as VP choice in 2016? on: April 22, 2014, 11:47:27 pm
Midwestern, fluent in Spanish and scripture (Kaine's a devout Catholic), good speaker, assuming she's on defensive for the so-called "enemies list" (despite the fact no enemy actually got punished) Kaine was the first major officeholder to endorse Obama in 2007.

What I see never see mentioned here is the fairly plausible scenario that Hillary will have a comfortable enough lead to make a January pick. I keep reading she'd pick a white, male, 50s candidate from a swing state. But if she's up by 10, why not pick Patti Murray?
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Here's why the GOP is NOT doomed in 2016 on: April 22, 2014, 04:58:52 pm
"Permanent Republican Majority."

When Rove was pursuing that, the Republicans had lost the popular vote in 3 straight presidential elections. The Democrats have won the last 2, 5 of the last 6, and the GOP looks like even more of a mess than they did heading toward 2012.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas, let's talk about race on: April 22, 2014, 11:47:46 am
Cruz and Rubio are Hispanic.

Source?
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many women? on: April 22, 2014, 07:11:05 am
Oh, I didn't read carefully at first and thought this thread was about who was going to the Atlas prom?  
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will an Establishment or Insurgent candidate be nominated by the GOP? on: April 21, 2014, 03:44:30 pm
The establishment always wins in the end.

McCain made nice but Giuliani and Romney drew more establishment support than McCain in 2008.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Time to drop Warren from DEM polling, insists she's not running on: April 21, 2014, 01:28:51 pm
Chris Christie destroyed Shermanesque denials for everyone when he climbed on the fence.

That said, unlike Christie and Obama, Warren hasn't aspired to electoral politics (or the presidency?) from a young age. The first time she ran for anything was when she was drafted to run in Massachusetts. For all we know, Warren would say no to being president if it was offered with no election.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush's Rush for Money May Be Hurdle on: April 21, 2014, 07:04:39 am
Seriously? The Democrats are going to attack Jeb Bush's participation in the California Gold Rush of 1849 to make him look too old when their own nominee is Hillary? Good luck!
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker not having a college degree is going to crush him in crucial swing areas on: April 19, 2014, 11:25:23 am
Jesus didn't have a college degree.

He also wasn't over 35. Being president is just a higher bar.  
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker not having a college degree is going to crush him in crucial swing areas on: April 18, 2014, 04:07:36 pm
If Walker's the nominee the swing areas will be places like Arizona and they won't be crucial.
171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who's likely to win the 2016 GOP South Carolina primary? on: April 17, 2014, 12:16:32 pm
Of those showing interest in a run so far, Cruz and Huckabee look to me like the only two who could win it without first winning Iowa.
172  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2014 Major League Baseball prediction and discussion thread. on: April 13, 2014, 07:34:38 am
WS Tigers vs Nationals
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Warren vs moderate Republican. How does Wall Street respond and vote? on: April 09, 2014, 05:46:49 pm
They'd rally behind the 2016 Republican nominee like they did in 2012 for the guy who lost by 100 EVs.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush Outlines His Campaign Strategy on: April 09, 2014, 11:27:16 am
With talk like that, I'm willing to bet he runs.  How far he'll get remains to be seen, but I'm willing to bet he runs.  It doesn't seem like to me that the Bush name is as toxic as it was in the 2012 election, considering that by most accounts, on both sides of the aisle, the Obama administration has been less than superb or has not met expectations.  I could be totally wrong on that, but that's what I've gathered from CNN and my political research.

For example, Obama's letting that Malaysian Airlines flight get abducted by aliens is the kind of crap W never would have put up with.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Here's why the GOP is NOT doomed in 2016 on: April 02, 2014, 02:59:23 pm
I don't know who Jack is or, of course, who will win in 2016. But people are overestimating the chances of a 2010/inverse-2008 climate: the Republicans haven't had one in a presidential since the Cold War ended. Maybe the Cold War is back on though. Not sure it'd help them.
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