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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: With 10 months to go, show your 2016 PV/EC projections on: December 24, 2015, 04:53:19 pm
Hard to predict what GOP race looks like in 2 months let alone the world in 10. But I assume that's the idea of this game.

I think the VP nominees pretty much don't matter. Assuming the Democratic nominee is Hillary and the VP nominee isn't Warren, Warren and Sanders will be a bigger factor in how Hillary does than her VP nominee. They'd both obviously try to rally people to show up and vote for Hillary and I bet succeed.

Not sure who the GOP nominee will be but I'll assume either Cruz or Trump or else Rubio imitating them to the point where it may as well have been Cruz or Trump. GOP VP is probably completely irrelevant but who Trump or Cruz would pick is unknown enough that it's hard to say for sure.

Given the solidification of presidential politics, the reasonable likelihood that the economy stays on track and general trust of Hillary on foreign affairs, coupled with her strong debate skills, I'll stick with what I've said before: 2012>2016 is the least changed electoral map in American history.

I'll check back then.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio or Christie? on: December 23, 2015, 06:33:59 pm
Vox takes a look at the four way race to be Mr. Establishment...
http://www.vox.com/2015/12/23/10660186/marco-rubio-jeb-bush-chris-christie

No conclusions, just mapping out how each of them is in contention for the crown.

This points out what people are overlooking: Bush and Kasich at the bottom of the pile are in easy striking range of Christie and Rubio at the top, (and of Cruz who is tied with them). In theory, Bush, having the most money, should be able to spend his way to the top, but his spending has been completely ineffective. Also, because it's all SuperPAC $ and campaign $ gets better rates, Rubio will be able to hang with him in ads. I briefly thought Kasich being excluded from the Trump Debate would cut off his oxygen but on the other hand, Kasich boosted his numbers by spending in NH even before the first debate. And Christie similarly didn't seem hurt by one debate demotion.

My bet is still Rubio to do best of these 4. I think the press about him neglecting traditional campaigning was a lucky break in that it alerted him to course-correct. I think Christie will have a glass jaw to attack ads. Not sure what Bush's favorables among NH Republicans are but my hunch is probably too low with too little time to fix. I'd bet Romney will endorse Rubio in January. He reportedly likes Kasich and holds no grudge against Christie but it just seems Rubio is his favorite. Trump would unleash a fit about Romney choking in 2012 and Rubio being a puppet, but that probably wouldn't hurt Rubio among the voters deciding between these 4. There's a chance Rubio could catch Trump, a better chance he could pull ahead Cruz but even if he did neither, he'd winnow his lane. Predictions aside, I'm rooting for Christie to win this division. Hard to imagine Cruz not being a finalist but Trump and Christie alsbeing final three and throwing down in March with high stakes would be glorious.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump is so weak in polls because of poor media skills on: December 23, 2015, 04:44:45 pm
This has been my thinking too. Xenophobia/Islamophobia/Immigration hardline stuff unfortunately boosts him, but talking about Hillary's bathroom breaks hurts him.

http://www.vox.com/2015/12/23/10657516/donald-trump-polls

154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Seven weeks to New Hampshire, who's gonna win it? on: December 23, 2015, 02:09:50 pm
Surely with three candidates in the moderate lane staking everything in New Hampshire, one candidate dominating that lane nationally, and one candidate poised to get a boost from Iowa, it makes more sense at this point to call the guy consistently leading in the high 20s a favorite, rather than one of the five longshots? There is also precedent for the original frontrunner to win the state as expected (Romney 2012, Tsongas 1992), albeit interrupted by a temporary loss of the lead (Clinton 2008, Bush 1988, Reagan 1980).

Oh sure, I do think Trump is the favorite to win New Hampshire.  Just trying to point out that his lead there is more tenuous then some here tend to make it out to be.  People so often seem to forget that, unlike in general election races, big double digit shifts of support in the primaries are fairly common...even for candidates who appeared "stable" for months.


Would you buy or short my 1:2 odds?

Are you just basing it on this poll?

1:2 sounds about right to me.
I'd maybe bet on Rubio at 5:1,
Cruz and Christie each 17:1
Bush and Kasich 35:1
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH on: December 22, 2015, 10:47:42 pm
Bush has extra incentive to attack Christie immediately and try and knock him from main debate.

Well if you look at the last national poll and the last 3 NH polls, Christie is ahead of Bush. So if anyone is pushing anyone out it the other way around. But for Bush to get pushed entirely out it will take Kasich, Paul or Fiorina to make some gains.

Yeah, I retract that. Bush will attack Christie and Rubio anyway because he's trying to beat them in New Hampshire but seems unlikely to keep him out of this debate.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH on: December 22, 2015, 10:10:15 pm
Bush has extra incentive to attack Christie immediately and try and knock him from main debate.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio or Christie? on: December 22, 2015, 06:52:49 pm
I think we should do a poll between which is the better Rubio vs Christie, thread, this one or that one:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225150.0

Or maybe even that one:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225178.0

Anyway, here's Christie and Morning Joe teaming up to attack Rubio.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/chris-christie-marco-rubio-attack-217057

I don't completely dismiss Bush and Kasich's chances in this scrum, especially Bush who still has more money to spend that Christie but I agree Rubio and Christie are more likely to win this division, with Rubio more likely than Christie.

EDIT: Oh the nomination! My mistake. I thought you meant who will beat the other in New Hampshire. I voted Rubio on that one. More likely nominee is Rubio by a mile. As usual, Atlas is wrong.
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NM Gov Martinez may have drunkdialed her way off the VP lists on: December 22, 2015, 06:03:53 pm
I can see Rubio or Kasich picking her,

Yeah but you're still making match-up threads with Robert Durst a possible VP pick.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NM Gov Martinez may have drunkdialed her way off the VP lists on: December 22, 2015, 05:42:33 pm
Her VP stock had dropped even before this but probably in large part because word spread she was like this.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz sees Bush, Christie and Kasich as 'allies' against Rubio on: December 22, 2015, 03:34:47 pm
Obviously. Christie and Bush, in addition to taking shots at each other, have been hitting Rubio at every opportunity with Bush allies reportedly going for character assassination. (And Kasich has been attacking Christie.) It all helps Trump and Cruz but here's also good analysis of establishment panic in New Hampshire with a roadmap for them. If Rubio pressures Kasich out (maybe by dangling VP in front of him though not clear he'd want it seeing as how he's already in his 60s) and gets McCain, Romney and the Union-Leader to endorse him, he could make a run at clearing the establishment lane to make it a 3-person race or even winning it and ending Trump.
 
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/12/new_hampshire_is_looking_terrible_for_the_gop_establishment_s_candidates.html
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie vs. Rubio on: December 22, 2015, 03:41:54 am
So far Kasich is the only one who has started attacking Christie in New Hampshire. Bush and Rubio are fairly likely to start up too, and if he climbs to 20, the attacks would escalate with Trump joining in. Bush and Rubio could outspend Christie by a lot and he's a pretty easy target. But Cruz probably prefers Christie to Rubio to come out of New Hampshire and would continue to hit Rubio, and Jeb and Kasich might too. Chaos. But Christie at 20, Rubio at 10, with over 3 weeks til NH? Take Rubio plus the points.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jim Webb might be running after all on: December 21, 2015, 05:47:11 pm
I've been thinking Trump would pursue his as a running mate. They'd have a chance to win, so Webb trying to run on his own is a bit of a relief.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP insiders say they see 3rd party challenge if Trump is nominated on: December 21, 2015, 04:51:13 pm
Not sure how much stock we should put in the "Party Decides" theory if GOP insiders are preparing for Trump to be the nominee.

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Uh, no you don't.  It's more en vogue to make fun of Republicans for killing off their moderates, but have you watched your own debates?  Hillary Clinton is about the most standard liberal Democrat on the planet, and she's being painted as a corporatist by her competition.  How would a candidate standing up there talking about out of control debt, too much regulation on business and cutting taxes for everyone be received?? 

A Democrat could easily get nominated talking about the debt as Obama did before he was elected, promising to cut the deficit in half. On taxes, it'd probably be more damaging to talk about repealing the Bush tax cuts on people earning <250K than it would be to vow to bring them back for people making over. I'd be curious to see whether Hillary could come out for tax cuts for millionaires tomorrow and still win the nomination. Her answer that CEOs would love her as president, which set up Sanders response that they wouldn't love him hasn't seemed to slow her down.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it? on: December 21, 2015, 02:01:59 pm
I don't know if there's really such a thing as "peaking too early" with respect to your actual chances of winning the caucuses.  There may be if your nearest opponents are going to hit you with negative ads, but that doesn't seem to be happening here (at least not yet).  So not sure this will really qualify as "peaking too early".  Being ahead in the Iowa polls at this stage is presumably better than being behind in terms of your likelihood of winning the caucuses.

But the second consideration is the expectations setting, and its impact on the momentum that an Iowa win will generate.  On that dimension, I think "peaking too early" could be a worry.  If you take the lead early enough that you become the expected winner, then you risk not getting nearly the same polling bounce from the victory that you would if the victory was unexpected.

As a rule of thumb, that seems about right to me. But in this particular case, the bump should be big regardless of how obvious the win is. Because even if it's obvious to everyone weeks away, Cruz winning Iowa will turn Trump from a bragging prognosticator into a proven loser, the impact of which will be huge. Cruz will see a doubled surge: from boosted media coverage as a result of his defeat of Trump, and quite likely in supporters, as some of Trump's fans abandon him for a stronger candidate. (And that's assuming Trump fans even get around to voting in the primaries in the first place....)

You may be right, though I think however big such a bump ends up being, it would be even bigger if Trump had Howard Dean-esque polling leads in Iowa, and then Cruz surged into the lead in the last week or two John Kerry style.  The media would treat that as a bigger deal than Cruz taking the lead two months in advance of caucus day and holding onto that lead and winning.

But that's really hard to calibrate.  I wouldn't purposely hold back at this stage, just to keep the expectations low.

But maybe Cruz is instead getting a gradual polling bump nationally and in later states. So polls function like tiny primaries and his taking the lead in Iowa, fuels more media coverage not just about his success in the poll but more generally with the angle that he's a serious contender which boosts his numbers. For instance, we are now seeing him pulling away from Rubio nationally and in South Carolina. Whether that's driven by the same things driving his Iowa surge, or driven by his Iowa surge or some combo of them I don't know. If Cruz wins Iowa without surprise, maybe it's ultimately just a more gradual road to the same place he would have been had it been a surprise.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz/Haley? on: December 21, 2015, 12:39:00 am
If she were the VP nominee, her alleged affair would get heavy scrutiny. She'd probably refuse to be vetted if it's true and I'll say it is, going only off the fact that she's from South Carolina, home of Mark Sanford, Strom Thurmond and Lindsay Graham.

Speaking of female VP prospects, it's telling how much Susana Martinez has dropped out of the VP conversation to the point that she just had a run in with the cops and it didn't even get a mention here.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it? on: December 20, 2015, 04:59:04 pm
Probably Trump. Trump is the Romney of this cycle, Cruz is the flavor of the month. The merry go round will have moved on from Cruz at that point, but whether whoever is next in line wins IA or Trump pulls it off is unclear at this point. Carson could also come back again, remember last time it was Perry-Cain-Gingrich-Santorum-Gingrich-Santorum.

Actually, I don't think Santorum took a national lead until after Gingrich's 2nd surge came crashing down but someone less lazy can check. But also, Gingrich was destroyed (twice) by negative advertising, in late 2011 by Paul and Romney (who took the lead in Iowa with a week to go) and late January 2012 by Romney. As I've pointed out for a while, the difference between Cruz and Santorum/Huckabee/ Gingrich is his fundraising is stronger than anyone's except Bush. So I think it'd be harder for say Rubio to take him down than it was for Romney to derail Gingrich. Maybe Trump will launch attack ads against Cruz, but they appear to have negotiated a ceasefire and it's not clear Trump will spend much money. (There's also less to attack Cruz on than there was for Gingrich.) So I agree with the consensus here that Cruz will hold his lead.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC software breach gave Sanders campaign confidential Clinton Data on: December 20, 2015, 12:58:47 pm
For downloading her data, the guy was fired by the Sanders campaign. For exploiting it to put a thumb on the scale for Hillary, the DNC was shamed into retreating and inadvertently raised a million dollars for Bernie in single day. All's well that ends well.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary: "ISIS Using Videos Of Donald Trump To Recruit New Jihadists" on: December 20, 2015, 12:42:28 pm
Trump's response: "Can You Imagine Having That As President?"

A nice touch. It worked so well with Carly. Let's see if it works with Hillary too.

The other similarity to Carly is the video doesn't seem to exist.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is there enough time for Christie to make a comeback? on: December 19, 2015, 03:34:58 pm
Even if he can't make enough of a comeback to win the nomination, he might be able to make enough of a comeback to set himself up for 2020.  For Christie and a few of the other candidates, I wonder how much the 2020 race will factor into their decision on when to drop out of this race.

You also reminded me of how wrong everyone is who thinks Rubio will run for governor in 2018 if he doesn't win. It's one thing to get re-elected governor while you're running for president, another to get elected the first time.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC software breach gave Sanders campaign confidential Clinton Data on: December 19, 2015, 02:57:05 pm
Bringing things to an anticlimactic but reasonably satisfying ending is my specialty!

Just ask my ex-girlfriend.

This ending was funny enough to lock the thread on. May have been for the best.

Anyway, here's a statement from a strong Hillary supporter denouncing the DNC behavior on this thing.

http://www.ndn.org/blog/2015/12/learning-sanders-dnc-data-skirmish


Quote
Lingering doubts about favoritism and special treatment undermines the integrity of our primary process, and will make party unity in the general more challenging. Free and fair elections are essential to bestowing legitimacy to winners of elections, which is why America has fought for so hard for this domestically and abroad for generations.

To be clear - the Sanders campaign did bad stuff, and there is a process in place to understand what happen and to take appropriate steps to address. But what the DNC did was an unprecedented and irresponsible intervention in the primary process. They too need to own it and help ensure it never happens again. And I write all this as an enthusiastic support of Hillary Clinton.

The Hillary campaign lobbied for as few debates with as small an audience as they could get away with and the DNC obliged. They very probably lobbied for this punishment too or else Debbie, not unlike the Bridgegate commanders in the unlikely event the order didn't come from Christie, knew what to do. But Hillary's campaign should know more than anyone the dangers of a primary loser being bitter. Her supporters whined about imaginary slights and having been cheated in 2008 and that process was much fairer than this one. Then, resentful about having lost to a smarter Obama campaign, many supported McCain, though most just flirted with the idea until Palin revealed herself to be a nightmare. And Hillary should also know from 2000 that it's harder for a party to hold the White House even after a successful presidency than it is to win it, as Bill and Obama did, against an incumbent party who failed. In short, the DNC botched this, botched the debates and should let Hillary fend for herself.

Guys I'm aware that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have and will continue to attack each other. Not really sure what reaction you're looking for here?

Look. It's obvious to any idiot your support for one of these candidates is tongue-in-cheek. If some people here can't see that you're only pretending to support Hillary to divide the Democratic Party and make Trump's election easier, they're beyond help.

171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH Democratic debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: December 19, 2015, 01:14:41 pm
Anyone want to try to guess the TV audience for this debate?  The November CBS Democratic debate, which I think was also held on a Saturday, drew 8.5 million. 

My guess is this one will draw closer to 6.3 million.  A Saturday debate on the second busiest shopping day of the year up against an NFL game involving the Cowboys has to do worse than the last one.  Debbie Wasserman Schultz deliberately scheduled these debates so that few would watch.

And to top it off she got lucky and drew Star Wars opening weekend.

O'Malley I think is still running for VP and will attack Cruz, Trump and Rubio.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is there enough time for Christie to make a comeback? on: December 19, 2015, 12:14:53 pm
There's time for Christie (or anyone else) to surge in New Hampshire. Because Christie now has momentum there, he seems more likely to continue than Bush or Kasich do to grow, but momentum can shift easily; Bush could reboot his TV ad campaign and make it more effective, Kasich could get a surprise big endorsement. Because those 3, Rubio and Cruz are all doing similar in NH polls, a slight change could boost any of them into 2nd place. Maybe even Fiorina.

New Hampshire will be affected by advertising (with Bush, Rubio and Cruz probably on the air much more than everyone else), the debate between Iowa and New Hampshire, the Iowa results and subsequent media coverage, the X factors of news events and candidate reactions to them plus candidate-generated news.

As far as Christie goes, you see how quickly he rehabilitated his favorables…

PPP's latest national poll (12/16 - 12/16) shows that Rubio's net favorability has dropped below Christie's among Republican primary voters:

+35 Carson (61/26/12)
+32 Cruz (59/27/14)
+24 Trump (58/34/8)
+19 Christie (49/30/21)
+15 Rubio (49/34/17)
 -14 Kasich (26/40/35)
 -15 Bush (34/49/18)

…but I think people are overestimating that as being a product of Christie's political talent while ignoring the fact the no one has been attacking Christie because he bore no threat. On the other hand, look at the damage suffered by Rubio (who previously had favorables higher than anyone but Carson). That's right after the debate where he was being hit on immigration. There is a wealth of things to inflict serious damage on Christie among conservatives and even moderates with a distaste for corrupt insiders. Now that Christie is a threat (to be the establishment candidate who performs best in an early state), I expect him to come under fire in a few weeks. And even if Christie wins New Hampshire, I still he is unlikely to get past Cruz.

Even if he can't make enough of a comeback to win the nomination, he might be able to make enough of a comeback to set himself up for 2020.  For Christie and a few of the other candidates, I wonder how much the 2020 race will factor into their decision on when to drop out of this race.

I assume it'll be a big factor and deterrent to dropping out. They each want to be the last establishment candidate standing so if Cruz or Trump lose big, they can be the person the media is saying should have been the nominee.

173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC software breach gave Sanders campaign confidential Clinton Data on: December 19, 2015, 10:08:13 am
It's depressing seeing Sanders's supporters being more delusional that those of TRUMP.

More delusional than either are Clinton supporters who think she'll get elected without help from Sanders supporters.
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Behind-the-scenes Rubio crash?? on: December 19, 2015, 01:50:49 am
Traders are finally catching up to Atlas reality. Forgive me Lief for not believing in the Donald, but I did follow through on Cruz.


They let Americans play?? I missed a chance to lose some money.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC software breach gave Sanders campaign confidential Clinton Data on: December 18, 2015, 09:46:00 pm
If she's the nominee, Hillary will need Sanders supporters in the general. The DNC's efforts to put a thumb on the scales is going to end up hurting her.
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