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September 01, 2015, 09:13:51 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush rejects God on: June 17, 2015, 05:18:08 pm
I like the Pope but I'm more worried that Jeb's rejecting science.
152  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christopher Ruddy: Jeb is Making Hillary's 2008 Mistake on: June 17, 2015, 02:02:46 pm
We've seen this before.

1) Establishment Candidate runs centrist primary campaign and draws ire of base.

2) Conservative vote fragments, allowing Establishment Candidate to win.

3) Establishment Candidate inexplicably veers to the right during the general election.

John McCain did this. Mitt Romney did this.

1) McCain and Romney didn't really run centrist primary campaigns. Both abandoned more moderate positions for the primary and Romney dislodged Perry from the lead by attacking him on immigration from the right.

2) I also disagree that a split conservative vote was a decisive factor in 2008, 12. The first 3 states were won by Huckabee, Romney and McCain with the latter two having more overlap in their appeal. True that maybe Fred Thompson kept Huckabee from winning South Carolina, but even if he had, McCain still narrowly loses it, picks up Charlie Crist's endorsement, presumably wins Florida solidifying establishment and big donor support in a two--man race against Huckabee who has no money and is no more embraced by economic conservatives or pundits than McCain.

In 2012, the idea of a vote split is belied by the fact that the more conservatives that fell out of the race, the better Romney seemed to do. Santorum's presence didn't account for Gingrich blowing Florida. That would be Romney's ad campaign destroying Gingrich's record. Maybe if Newt had dropped out then, Santorum would have won Ohio. But even losing it, Santorum still won a series of primaries heading into Illinois where Gingrich had no effect and Santorum's limited appeal and clumsiness finally caught up with him.

Walker and Rubio aren't nearly as underfunded and limited in appeal as Huckabee and Santorum were (which was actually the decisive factor). Also Romney's favorables and support among Republicans was much stronger than Bush's.

That said, I think, like McCain and Romney, Bush has a good chance to win both New Hampshire and Florida, if he has more momentum than Rubio by the time FL rolls around. If so, and he gets in a 2-person race, his chances obviously depends on whom he draws. If it's Walker, I expect a close Hillary vs. Obama -esque campaign. If it's Huckabee, Carson or Cruz, probably more like Romney vs Santorum.
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christopher Ruddy: Jeb is Making Hillary's 2008 Mistake on: June 17, 2015, 10:35:56 am
Obama did not succeed because he outflanked Hillary on the left. Obama succeeded because he was black and viable and his candidacy would be historic. Hillary was not outflanked, she was out glittered. 

I see no such candidate surfacing in the Republican field.

She might have won without her Iraq War vote, but that's not a decision she made during the primary.

But it's a bad comparison because Bush is in a 5-way tie and barely breaking 10%. Also, his only real defiance of the base has been immigration (where Rubio is the same) and Common Core.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker eyes July 13th announcement on: June 16, 2015, 07:48:50 pm
You gotta give him credit for wanting to stay in his state and do the job he was elected to do. He's not my candidate of choice, but this shows he takes his job seriously.

Yes. You gotta give him credit for staying in his state/neighboring state/New England/England and doing the job he was elected to do/needs to do to do the job he wants to do.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - Mid-June 2015 on: June 16, 2015, 07:10:37 pm
Huh? Where are all the Walker bots? I don't see them anywhere.

Anyway, as I've said for months now, Jeb will be the nominee. Most of the rest are clowns.

Yeah, what the hell happened to Walker here? He's been winning all these polls for months including one 2 weeks ago then suddenly he collapses here on the day a new poll comes out showing him leading nationally and Bush's favorables underwater. Walker is still the most conservative top-tier candidate when you include immigration. He's been having troubles back home for a few weeks but I haven't seen a single post about it and don't know if anyone here even knows about it. As far as gaffes, his  have been comparable to Rubio and Bush and anyway, gaffes don't matter much, certainly not this far out.

Bush will implode, and people will realize he's not really as conservative as made out to be.

I actually think most will discover he's more conservative than they thought for the most part. But Bush fatigue might be the end of him.
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - Mid-June 2015 on: June 16, 2015, 06:53:22 am
I think I'll pass on walker, after his dumb Cameron comment. Kasich seems more likely right now.

No one will care about the Cameron thing. Or do you just mean Walker is bound to say more stupid things? That seems likely. Kasich doesn't say stupid things so much but he's notoriously undisciplined about what he does say so hopefully that will be interesting. Walker's bigger problem is what might happen to his approval rating in the next 6 months.
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Carson ahead nationally on: June 15, 2015, 01:30:11 pm
The top ten here would make for a great debate. Too bad they didn't poll Trump.

That outrage ends tomorrow.

Every single Republican is both pulling less support than Bernie Sanders and closer to 1st place than Romney was a few weeks (?) before he locked up the nomination.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=148803.0
158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush to announce presidential bid today: he has the advantage of "gravitas" on: June 15, 2015, 01:03:54 pm
I agree with that assessment of Bush's advantages. Bush's struggles aren't exactly the same as Romney in 2011 but they're roughly similar. Or as McCain 2007 but with much more money. On the other hand, he has tougher competition and I think this columnist is too dismissive of the drag immigration, Common Core and Bush fatigue will be on him.

Also, I agree if Bush has more momentum than Rubio heading into Florida, he's favored to pick it up, but because it's tentatively scheduled to fall after Super Tuesday, I'd guess a Bush win there is more likely to solidify his spot in a 2-man race than make him the presumptive nominee.

My wild guess on odds of being nominee would be like: Bush 40, Walker 30, Everyone else 30

Edit: I'm still a Rubio skeptic. His mini-surge looks like it's already fading before Bush has even used his massive war chest to attack him, and my gut is he won't hold up well to the attacks.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Obamacare is struck down, how will Hillary react? on: June 15, 2015, 11:04:41 am
She'll challenge Republicans to support a fix. What they do is the more interesting question.
160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney and Adelson trying to prevent 2016 primary campaign from being messy on: June 15, 2015, 09:44:16 am
It's more about directing his donor network to someone. Also... Romney is angling to be the next losing nominee from Massachussets turned Secretary of State. Agree he appears to favor Rubio but are they really going to finance him to fight Bush and/or Walker? Adelson is also coordinating with the Kochs. I think the damage of the extended primary on Romney 2012 is largely Romney needing an excuse why he didn't win.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb plans June 15 announcement on: June 14, 2015, 08:53:05 pm
Interesting fact from Twitter - Jeb is the only Bush to ever lose a race in Florida, that '94 one.

Well… that's a complicated one.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who Do You Match on iSideWith? on: June 13, 2015, 12:49:06 pm

My results (followed by my true non-quiz preference in parentheses)
2. Bernie Sanders - 75%  - domestic, foreign policy, education, immigration, and health care (7)
3. Ben Carson - 75% - economic, foreign policy, social, immigration, and education (9)

Annnnd it's useless.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Kasich Just a Beltway Candidate? on: June 12, 2015, 08:27:32 pm
In 2006, Romney was a practical nobody with names like Rudy, McCain, Allen, Frist and and others getting far more attention.

A couple of good debate performances and early organizing in Iowa and NH and by August 2007, nationally the game was Rudy and Fred in meaningless national polls, whilst both were trailing Romney in IA and NH.

Allen and Frist didn't run in 2006.

Always smarmy, never change. His post is easy to understand if you aren't just looking to be a douche.

I'm going to defend Landslide Lyndon here.  Romney was also getting overshadowed by these other people but then half of them didn't run? What does that have to do with Kasich? There's no way Romney's polling and fundraising was as far behind as Kasich's are now.

Yes, he's the Pawlenty of this cycle. 

Pawlenty would probably have been the nominee if he hadn't dropped out, and maybe won.

Yeah, and so would Mitch Daniels Roll Eyes

You're being sarcastic, but Daniels may also have won. But I don't know what early state he'd have been well-suited for the way Pawlenty was for Iowa.

There isn't significant opposition to him, in the sense that there aren't that many in the party who would be outraged if he got the nomination.

You can't be serious.
164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: June 12, 2015, 04:57:53 pm

Here's a theory on how Walker is using that idea to railroad Rubio into the #2 spot with Rubio responding with surrogates hitting Walker.

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/06/11/scott-walker-quite-a-few-people-have-suggested-a-walkerrubio-ticket-to-me/

What's strange is Walker may eventually need to go negative on Rubio to survive but he's boxing himself in by now saying he has confidence in him. At the Romney summit, he did again use the "Senators haven't done jack" line though.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Better chance to be comeback kid 2016 - Christie or Perry? on: June 12, 2015, 02:35:33 pm
Christie winning this poll 2 to 1 is the tip-off that the correct answer is Perry.

1. Bush will soon start using his war chest to destroy Walker and Rubio.

2. Walker and Rubio seem likely to be as bad in debates as Perry. Although "Oops" didn't destroy Perry, it is what is keeping him from getting any traction this time. If he's comes across as less foolish, he'll be considered a viable nominee.

3. He's more conservative than Bush or Kasich (and governor of a bigger state than either), more popular at home than Walker, Rubio or Christie, and has more experienced as governor than any Republican.

A lot of people ahead of him would have to stumble for him to comeback but that's not all that unrealistic a scenario.
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Kasich Just a Beltway Candidate? on: June 12, 2015, 02:00:14 pm
In 2006, Romney was a practical nobody with names like Rudy, McCain, Allen, Frist and and others getting far more attention.

A couple of good debate performances and early organizing in Iowa and NH and by August 2007, nationally the game was Rudy and Fred in meaningless national polls, whilst both were trailing Romney in IA and NH.

Allen and Frist didn't run in 2006.

Always smarmy, never change. His post is easy to understand if you aren't just looking to be a douche.

I'm going to defend Landslide Lyndon here.  Romney was also getting overshadowed by these other people but then half of them didn't run? What does that have to do with Kasich? There's no way Romney's polling and fundraising was as far behind as Kasich's are now.

Yes, he's the Pawlenty of this cycle. 

Pawlenty would probably have been the nominee if he hadn't dropped out, and maybe won.

Huntsman without the redeeming features

I've been slow to warm up to this but it does seem like the best comparison.

I just don't see where his place is. He isn't a good fit for Iowa. I could see him doing well in New Hampshire but I don't think he's made enough contacts on the state or started early enough. He isn't particularly fit for SC or Nevada. If he doesn't do well in one of these states, he's toast. If he does start to gain fire, ad after ad will eviscerate him for Medicaid expansion, and I don't think any of the other candidates will rush to his defense. He'd be an excellent VP pick, but Governor Kasich doesn't strike me as someone who wants to be Vice President.

Agree this. New Hampshire is maybe an opening for him but polls tell us very little and their history is confusing. Pat Buchanan and John McCain won presidential primaries 4 years apart, Kelly Ayotte and Ovide LaMontagne statewide primaries 2 years apart. And as long as Bush is a frontrunner, Kasich is likely to struggle like Huntsman against Romney.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Jeb's campaign went off course before it began on: June 11, 2015, 02:01:07 pm
Bush has surged ahead in New Hampshire, is doing fine in his home state of Florida, and he is by far winning in terms of fundraising - his Iraq gaffe was a big deal because he's generally great with the media.

His campaign is doing fine, he will most likely be the nominee.

At once we see selective spin but also general accuracy.  Bush is fine and the official announcement will help right the ship, which isn't teetering that much in the first place.

Right. Bush's surge in NH is only measured by a dubious Gravis poll, the latest Florida poll has Rubio closing the gap with Bush, his fundraising is short of expectations and his polling is much weaker than Romney's was 4 years ago. But he still is a better bet than Walker or Rubio to perform well on a debate stage, will have money with which to massively attack them and has as good a chance in New Hampshire as anyone else. He's neither a lock nor imploding at this point.

But also, this article makes is seem pretty unambiguous that Bush has broken the law. What if Christie ends up the only major candidate not indicted?
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich PAC hires infamous Fred Davis as Media Strategist on: June 11, 2015, 01:52:02 pm
I'd be even more concerned about him hiring John Weaver as chief strategist.

Kasich shouldn't have deliberated so long about getting in the race. The most talented operatives have now all gone to other campaigns.

Weaver is an ideological match.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/06/john-kasichs-quest-for-glorious-martyrdom.html

And the animosity with the base seems mutual. Here's Eric Erickson comparing Kasich to villains Jon Huntsman and John Wilkes Booth.

http://www.redstate.com/2015/06/10/john-kasich-is-not-running-to-be-president/
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Ipsos/Reuters: Bush & Huckabee ahead, Hillary below 50% on: June 11, 2015, 12:07:48 pm
Republicans (n=676):

12% Bush
12% Huckabee

10% Carson
10% Walker
  8% Paul
  8% Cruz
  8% Rubio
  7% Christie
  5% Santorum
  4% Trump
  3% Pataki
  3% Graham
  2% Fiorina
  9% Undecided

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14600


Fox national poll, conducted May 31 - June 2:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/06/03/0603152016nsaweb/

GOP

Bush 12%
Walker 12%
Carson 11%
Paul 9%
Cruz 8%
Rubio 7%
Huckabee 6%
Christie 5%
Perry 4%
Trump 4%
Fiorina 2%
Graham 2%
Kasich 2%
Pataki 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%

Wonder if the Rubio bump is fading or if it's just noise. No one has attacked hum much, though Bush is gearing up to. And I haven't seen much recent press about him and immigration reform. The most press he's gotten has allowed him to cast himself as a victim of the media, so not sure what this fade is about if it's real.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I think... Repubs will win Ohio but lose Nationally on: June 10, 2015, 04:42:27 pm
I just went back and checked out all the McCain vs Obama Ohio polls published in September 2008 (i.e. between 1-2 months before Election Day). McCain is leading twice as many of them as Obama.

171  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio: Mixed results for Hillary Clinton in match-ups against Republicans, PPP on: June 10, 2015, 04:12:49 pm
You are all putting way too much stock in specific polls at this point.  None of these Republicans are really known quantities, so you look at these numbers as anything more than a guidepost.  Ohio is basically where it was in 2012, it's an extremely competitive state.

lol, if I were Hillary, I'd get truly frightened if a guy like Ben Carson is just a point below me in one of the most important swing states. Get your sh**t together, Hillary.

Nobody really knows who Ben Carson is.  Once people realize how bonkers he is, his general election poll numbers will nosedive. 

Ben Carson is actually the only candidate in this poll who got positive favorables.

(Agree polls don't matter yet)
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb plans June 15 announcement on: June 08, 2015, 10:21:06 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/06/08/a-week-from-launch-jeb-bush-names-and-reshuffles-his-team/

Bush shakes up his staff but didn't pick up any of Carson's exes.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Super Tuesday Republican Primary -- Atlas Edition on: June 08, 2015, 07:31:47 pm
Please tell me there are more people who would enjoy the hilarity of Lindsay Graham winning this meaningless poll than there are Paulbots who won't be able to sleep unless Paul wins this. Come on, restore my faith in this community! Vote Lindsay!
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker backs amendment to allow states to ban gay marriage on: June 07, 2015, 04:04:41 pm
I assume every Republican will say the same thing before long.

175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton Will Follow Obama's Path to Presidency -Not Her Husband's on: June 07, 2015, 10:54:52 am
It's pretty much win Florida, Ohio and or Virginia and the Presidency if your a democrat.

That works too.
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