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151  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scalia just died (really). How will this affect the race? on: February 13, 2016, 05:17:18 pm
So the GOP will block any appointment until the election, right?

Definitely.
152  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia dead at 79 on: February 13, 2016, 04:58:30 pm
Holy Christ
153  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker un-suspends campaign... consequences? on: February 13, 2016, 04:39:23 pm
Disastrous debate tonight, immediately re-suspends his campaign.

It'd be hilarious after saying God told him to drop out and inspire others to do the same.
154  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DWS: superdelegates exist to stop grassroot activists on: February 13, 2016, 05:53:16 am
She can't win the nomination with super-delegates and then win in November. This is why she was blocked from winning with them in 2008. Since she has attacked Sanders as disloyal to Obama, he may as well remind South Carolina she tried to do that. If she relies on superdelegates to be nominated, she surrenders the electability argument to Sanders. (in Debbie's defense, she's not the one who created super-delegates. Still, a Clinton loyalist shouldn't be chairwoman during this primary.)

Yeah, I don't think anyone who wants the Democratic party to win in November wants the nominee to win the primary just because of superdelegates.

Primary battles are overrated when it comes to the general. By November anyone who really cares about the future of the country, and is in a battleground state, will pick one of the viable candidates. Hillary herself is a great example. She won the most votes but was still denied the nomination; nonetheless did you see her endorsement and nonstop campaigning for Obama in 2008? She was on fire!

Hillary only 'won the most votes' because caucus votes weren't counted.

Caucuses aren't real votes.

In primaries where they were both on the ballot, Obama beat Hillary in the popular vote.
She did try to use superdelegates in 2008 to be the nominee anyway but the party recognized how disastrous it would be for them. If she did now she'd lose to even Trump or Cruz.
155  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DWS: superdelegates exist to stop grassroot activists on: February 13, 2016, 05:10:24 am
She can't win the nomination with super-delegates and then win in November. This is why she was blocked from winning with them in 2008. Since she has attacked Sanders as disloyal to Obama, he may as well remind South Carolina she tried to do that. If she relies on superdelegates to be nominated, she surrenders the electability argument to Sanders. (in Debbie's defense, she's not the one who created super-delegates. Still, a Clinton loyalist shouldn't be chairwoman during this primary.)
156  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GILMORE OUT on: February 12, 2016, 04:41:14 pm
Screw this election!
157  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie hurt himself in the debate. on: February 12, 2016, 04:24:15 pm
It's important to remember that Sanders is not a Democrat and is only running in the Democratic primary as a convenience. He would had to build a database from scratch running as an independent. He can't stand Obama and has made that clear a long time ago.

Worth repeating. Wink

It's wrong. Sanders was explicit about his reasoning to run as a Democrat instead of as an Independent: he was worried about being a spoiler a la Nader. This is the same reason he has been careful about not damaging Hillary for a general election. I realize he's not refraining from any attacks now that he's surprised to find himself in such a competitive position but he hasn't exactly been going for the jugular. For example, as many people have observed long before this thread, Hillary has been trying to hug Obama and secure her advantage with black voters by highlighting Sanders's criticisms of Obama. Sanders has defended himself and pointed out Hillary running against Obama but he easily could have quoted some of her and Bill's more racially inflammatory attacks against him which could weaken her firewall with black voters. Instead he stops short saying things like, "either one of us on our worst day is 100 times better than the Republicans". He's clearly a good dude.

Anyway, as some pundit pointed out, Hillary instead used Obama as a sort of human shield, suggesting any attack on Wall Streer-funded candidates is an attack on Obama's integrity. It was a smart move that I think will probably be the difference in the primary.











158  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Don't expect Carson to drop out any time soon on: February 12, 2016, 01:54:01 pm
He's doubtful to still be in the race by Super Tuesday.
159  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Superdelegates rig election for Hillary on: February 11, 2016, 04:58:22 pm


Haven't people explained enough times what's wrong with this argument?

You can "explain" it all you want, it doesn't change the facts. Don't hate the player, hate the game. The only reason Bernie even has the 1% chance at the nomination he has is because two lily white states (one of which was in his own backyard) were the first to vote. Case in point: life isn't fair.

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/06/clinton-and-the-popular-vote/

Hillary did not beat Obama in the popular vote. Nor would she beat Sanders now without Obama's support. She did try to take the nomination from Obama via the superdelegates but the party recognized the disaster that would have been. It would also be a disaster if she did it this time and she would be very unlikely to beat even Trump or Cruz.


160  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jim Webb rules out indie run on: February 11, 2016, 04:24:04 pm
Not surprised. If Bloomberg gets in (whih is unlikely) he could well be his running mate.

More likely to be Trump's VP.
161  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton v Sanders, who will win? on: February 11, 2016, 03:42:42 pm
Sanders is attracting some black opinion leaders but Obama is the biggest one of all and his and Hillary's mutual admiration society will probably be enough to block Sanders from many more New Hampshires. I still think she's a strong favorite but she will find herself a nominee with a real problem with young voters. Sanders, far more rational than she will have portrayed him, will do what he can to rally his supporters to turn out for her. Without them, she'd lose to even Cruz. He'll give a Ted Kennedyesque speech at the convention except one that more directly urges voting for the Democratic nominee who beat him. She won't start campaigning for single payer but in a number of ways, the competition he posed will have pushed her to the left, presumably Sanders's original hope for his candidacy.
162  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jewish American to win a primary on: February 11, 2016, 12:02:15 pm
Post-identity politics?


Billionaire Trump is not supported by billionaires
(he has the middle class and working poor)

Hispanic Cruz/Rubio are not supported by Hispanics

Female Hillary is not supported by females

Jewish Bernie is not supported by Jews / Old Bernie is not supported by old people

African-American Carson is not supported by African-Americans

I'm sure that Bernie Sanders has a lot of support among Jews. I don't know what the numbers are though.

No he does not. He is a secular Jew & has moderate support

A solid majority of American Jews are secular.

But overall I love your post.
163  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sen. Elizabeth Warren shows support for Hillary Clinton's Wall Street plan on: February 09, 2016, 04:51:43 pm
It won't matter if Hillary has a better policy plan to tackle wall street. Bernie still has more credibility on it because he hasnt taken speaking fees from Goldman Sachs. He isn't taking massive donations from Wall street. I am Hillary supporter so don't come at me.

Well, she can't exactly give back the money now, even if she wanted to it would look like a gimmick.

But it's worth pointing out that over 90% of those "Wall Street donations" are just donations from individuals who happen to work at a bank. So if Sally the teller donated $100 to her, it counts as a donation from Citigroup. And since Hillary was Senator from New York, a disproportionate number of her constituents worked in the financial industry. There aren't that many banks in Vermont.

Now I know that argument probably won't fly but it's worth putting out there.

I agree. What people actually think is like Goldman Sachs the company gives Hillary $$ which is illegal.   The distrust w Wall street is interesting and justified but in other ways really frighting for the future. It was really dumb move for her for doing those speaking fees just a bad political move. Barbara Boxer explains it best.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/barbara-boxer-hillary-clinton-speaking-fees_us_56b271e4e4b08069c7a5ef50

So who did pay her for her speeches to Goldman Sachs, then?

donations donations donations donations.

So, "donations" and "appearance fees" are identical terms? Somehow, I don't think so...

My fault let me clarify. Hillary got speaking fees from Goldman Sachs. What was I was talking about was the indiv donations that get framed as Companies donating directly to Hillary when its just indivs who just work under those companies.

But let's not be naive. It's laughable to suggest that these are just Goldman Sachs employees who happen to think her foreign policy experience leaves her best qualified to be president. It's Wall Street executives steering boatloads of money into her campaign, SuperPACs and into her personal accounts via speaking engagements because they expect to be rewarded with access and influence when she's president. Pretty simple. The idea that donations are about buying access and influence in DC and that it works isn't exactly a controversial claim.














164  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why does Rubio get Walkered on the left on: February 08, 2016, 09:57:39 pm
Because they're both dumb and incompetent. When I watch some of the other ones I disagree with them but obviously they've accomplished something in their careers or can think on their feet or just about anything. Walker and Rubio just can't.

Walker may be a lot of things. But incompetent is not one of them. You may not agree with his dismanteling of the public sector unions, but lack of accomplishments is not the reason he is disliked.

Thank you. We need to dispel with this fiction that Scott Walker doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.
165  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: what should be the CBS Feb 13 GOP debate criteria? on: February 08, 2016, 07:04:08 pm
Why not let all 9 debate?
166  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Marco Rubio's blowing it... for 2020 and 2024 on: February 08, 2016, 04:26:19 pm
We have to dispel with this notion that Marco Rubio is going to run for governor of Florida in 2018. I've been repeating this again and again.

What is Rubio going to say when asked during a 2018 campaign if he will launch a run for president his first year in office? Will he deny it and then reverse himself? Be non-committal? A governor running for re-election is a different case. Is there any example of someone launching a campaign for president and decamping for Iowa and New Hampshire in their 1st year as a governor? The closest examples are California governors Reagan in 1968 and Jerry Brown in 1976 but campaigns started later in those days. Even if Rubio tried a Fall entry- unlikely giving his focus on a war chest- what new experience would he be able to talk about having now? Blowing off a different job? He'll be attacked again and this time will say "We have to dispel with this notion that President Clinton doesn't know what she's doing"

Also, what if he ran and lost?!

It makes no sense to set up a 2020 run with a 2018 gub run. It makes somewhat more sense to set up a 2024 run, except then you're taking 2020 off the table and I assume he's running in 4 years whether he wins or loses this time, unless a Republican is elected.  But also if Rubio is not the nominee, it will likely be Cruz or Trump who are not exactly evidence that what Rubio was missing was a governor stint on his resume. Even if we get President Cruz or Trump and Rubio plans to wait for 2024, I think he's more likely to try to make as much money as he can than to run for governor. If we get President Clinton or Sanders, I assume Rubio will begin his 2020 campaign before the end of November and announce a pass on a guber run pretty quickly.
167  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which candidate is the most like Millard Fillmore? on: February 06, 2016, 01:20:40 pm
Obviously Gilmore. Their names rhyme.

I see your point but does Gilmore's name begin with "Fi"? No. Which is why I say Fiorina. Millardia "Carly" Fiorina.
168  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Seven weeks to New Hampshire, who's gonna win it? on: February 06, 2016, 12:02:04 am
Merry Christiemas! Remember when most here thought Christie would come in 2nd in NH? He even got 12 votes to win it (twice as many as Rubio). Now he's fighting to crack Top 5 and avoid indictment.
169  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders RUSHES to help man who fainted at his press conference! on: February 04, 2016, 12:04:29 pm
It looks like he first thinks someone is shooting at the stage based on his initial reaction. Running for President is a dangerous job.

I think he only got Secret Service protection in the last day or so.
170  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everyone going crazy for Rubio? on: February 04, 2016, 01:25:36 am
Cruz outperformed expectations more than Rubio really. Rubio was expected to finish 3rd and did exactly that albeit with more votes. Cruz didn't just get a higher vote total than expected but he won when he was expected to lose. The difference is FOX and most of the media has always wanted to push Rubio as the nominee. And Rubio helped them help him by giving a speech that pretended he won. Story sold.
171  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP) on: February 03, 2016, 11:25:13 pm
Non-story even if true.
172  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tonight's biggest winner on: February 01, 2016, 11:40:48 pm
1. Cruz
2. Sanders

Rubio takes 3rd again.
173  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Ted Cruz still on Trump's veep list? on: January 15, 2016, 11:56:54 am
Even before they started fighting, why would Trump pick Cruz? (Unless they needed to team up to stop Rubio).
174  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-debate Nomination Probabilities 1/15 on: January 15, 2016, 11:53:49 am
Delusional to think Christie has a 10 or even 5% chance of being the nominee.
175  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican winnowing post Feb 1? on: January 08, 2016, 06:50:15 pm
I'll take a shot!

After Iowa, Huck,Santorum out = 10
After NH, Fiorina, Gilmore out = 8
After SC, Kasich out = 7
After NV, Paul, Carson out = 5
After 3/1, Christie, Bush out = 3
Late March, Rubio out = 2
Cruz and Trump finish. Some kind of controversy, contested delegate count a la 2008 Democrats, 2000 general election, drags on throughout June.
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