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December 02, 2016, 09:31:14 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If California was split into two states, would SC be a battleground state? on: Today at 03:11:30 pm
Both Californias would be safe Democratic states.

If you split the Californias into coastal California and inland California, you might get at least one battleground.

What if water was purple?  

Here's a fun fact: water is actually blue because it absorbs red light. On a cloudy day at sea, it appears a deep, dark blue.

As for the question, I can't imagine water being purple because it would have to reflect red and blue light.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Southeast and Southwest democrats strategy on: December 01, 2016, 04:31:49 pm
Whites in the south are uber-Republican and it would be very difficult to change that. Whites in the mountain west are mostly uber Republican. This election showed that Hispanics likely will not go the way of blacks in their voting habits.

Which means, lets think, where do whites swing the most? Which region has suburbs that has some liberal whites? Which region is most prone to economic swings? It is the midwest.

On the Presidential level, I absolutely think the midwest may trend a bit more gop and the Southwest a bit more Democratic, but conceding the entire Midwest is political suicide as far as Senate purposes. Even the House would become more difficult.

And on top of that, we can not over think last months results, but I will say it was silly to assume the upper Midwest was solid Clinton when you consider the following.

1) They were not exactly landslides for Kerry in 2004.

2) The Midwest was very receptive to Obama's message in 2008. Almost won Missouri, and he even won Indiana. It mostly stayed solid to him in 2012.

3) Republicans have done well in downballot races since 2008.

So I never got why so many thought MI, WI, PA, OH, etc would be so solid for Clinton in 2016.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have been reliably blue states in presidential elections in the past and people assumed that they would go for Hillary Clinton, at least narrowly.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Are the Republicans having a harder time with the electoral map than before? on: December 01, 2016, 04:27:55 pm
If you ignore the fact that Donald Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, which is a very bizarre election year, would you say that the GOP is having a harder time with the electoral map? Hillary Clinton managed to keep New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and New Mexico, all of which were states won by George W. Bush during one or both presidential elections, in the Democratic column while losing in terms of electoral votes.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Did Michael Dukakis have a shot of winning in 1988? on: November 30, 2016, 02:55:58 pm
Would Michael Dukakis have been able to defeat George H.W. Bush in 1988 if the Willie Horton thing didn't happen and the footage of Dukakis riding the tank never surfaced or was the "Republican wall" too hard to crack?
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How well would Lincoln Chafee, Martin O'Malley, or Jim Webb have done? on: November 30, 2016, 02:42:01 pm
I think that all three would have been better candidates than Hillary Clinton in the general election against Donald Trump and I'm sure that Jim Webb would've defeated Donald Trump.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO-Gov 2018: Early Prospects on: November 26, 2016, 01:11:42 am
What about Jared Polis?

Absolutely not, unless we want to lose 60-40.

I don't get why people aren't mentioning Perlmutter. He's extremely popular in Jeffco, always outperforms in his swingy district, has good relationships with both the center and the left, and is generally a really likable guy. The smart money is on him, with or without Salazar in the primary.

imho Ken Salazar is a trailblazer in CO, but belongs to a tradition of rural Democrats that doesn't exist anymore, and has radical centrist (read: corporatist cronyist) policies that will turn off lots of base voters.

You win in CO now by racking up huge margins in Denver and Boulder, keeping the GOP below 60 in Dougco and the Springs, and then winning as big as possible in Jeffco, Adamsco, Arapahoe, and Larimer. Perlmutter can deliver here big time, and probably do better in R-trending Pueblo than most Dems too if he picks a Hispanic running mate.

How come Jared Polis is a liability?

1. He's an eccentric gay millionaire from Boulder, which unfortunately turns a lot of people off culturally.

2. Despite this, he has a voting record that isn't so unimpeachable for the left. He's voted to protect offshore tax havens, keep out Syrian refugees, to name a few off the top of my head. This is compounded by his wealth and privilege.

3. He is an awful campaigner. He smiles and blinks without really feeling any emotions, giving off that cold Hillary Clinton vibe. He dresses like a funhouse attendant. He actually isn't that bright and gives kind of reductive, non sequitur answers to relatively simple questions. imho he isn't even qualified.



In other words, he got elected by running in a very Democratic district?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO-Gov 2018: Early Prospects on: November 23, 2016, 03:09:27 pm
What about Jared Polis?

Absolutely not, unless we want to lose 60-40.

I don't get why people aren't mentioning Perlmutter. He's extremely popular in Jeffco, always outperforms in his swingy district, has good relationships with both the center and the left, and is generally a really likable guy. The smart money is on him, with or without Salazar in the primary.

imho Ken Salazar is a trailblazer in CO, but belongs to a tradition of rural Democrats that doesn't exist anymore, and has radical centrist (read: corporatist cronyist) policies that will turn off lots of base voters.

You win in CO now by racking up huge margins in Denver and Boulder, keeping the GOP below 60 in Dougco and the Springs, and then winning as big as possible in Jeffco, Adamsco, Arapahoe, and Larimer. Perlmutter can deliver here big time, and probably do better in R-trending Pueblo than most Dems too if he picks a Hispanic running mate.

How come Jared Polis is a liability?
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Are the Republicans eventually in trouble down the road? on: November 21, 2016, 03:50:18 pm
Say what you will about the 2016 election season. It might've been a Republican year, but I'd say it was probably a fluke.

The Republicans won the White House and retained control of both houses of Congress. Plus, they get to name Justice Scalia's replacement and possibly Justice Ginsburg's replacement.

They should enjoy the party while it lasts because the changing demographics are not exactly in their favor and because they have a habit of alienating just about every key group in politics.

So, are the Republicans eventually screwed?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: SD-GOV: Noem announces bid for Governor on: November 21, 2016, 03:42:33 pm
Considering the conservative nature of this state, the Republican primary is the only real contest in this gubernatorial election.
South Dakota has always been friendly to Democratic Senators and Congressmen, but not governors. I think the Democrats will go all in on the House race, but ignore the governor race.

Which is odd because its generally the opposite in most other places, but not the Dakotas.

I'm probably going off topic, but why is the House seat in Montana unwinnable for the Democrats? The Democrats don't seem to have much trouble with the Senate seats though.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: In Virginia, 2016 Congressional Candidates under-performed Clinton MASSIVELY on: November 21, 2016, 03:40:44 pm
CD-2 - Trump by 3, Taylor by 23 (!!!)

I refer you all to my previous thread furious at Hampton Roads dems that the only candidate they could get to run was Shaun "Kool Beans" Brown.

When I was reading about the congressional races in that area, I barely even remembered her name.

Were you registered to vote in Virginia at one point?

I am registered, and I did vote for Kool Beanz as I'm too lazy to write anyone in.

Is "Kool Beanz" actually her nickname?

I'm actually familiar with congressional races in the Hampton Roads area because I'm stationed in Portsmouth, but I'm not too familiar with Shaun Brown. I've became familiar with Randy Forbes because I've been to a bunch of his events. He lost the Republican primary even though everyone and their grandmother endorsed him.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Was 2016 a realigning election? on: November 20, 2016, 12:53:08 pm
Hillary Clinton won states that Al Gore lost like Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, but at the same time she lost states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

Do you think this was a realigning election or a fluke?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What the likelihood that King caucuses with the Republicans? on: November 20, 2016, 12:44:30 pm
About as likely as Flawless Beautiful Marco <3 <3 <3 caucusing with the Democrats.

I still have trouble believing that this empty suit got renominated and reelected.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: In Virginia, 2016 Congressional Candidates under-performed Clinton MASSIVELY on: November 19, 2016, 02:35:04 am
CD-2 - Trump by 3, Taylor by 23 (!!!)

I refer you all to my previous thread furious at Hampton Roads dems that the only candidate they could get to run was Shaun "Kool Beans" Brown.

When I was reading about the congressional races in that area, I barely even remembered her name.

Were you registered to vote in Virginia at one point?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: SD-GOV: Noem announces bid for Governor on: November 17, 2016, 04:15:27 pm
Considering the conservative nature of this state, the Republican primary is the only real contest in this gubernatorial election.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: UT-Gov 2020: We don't know what we're doing. on: November 17, 2016, 04:08:58 pm
When was the last time that Utah had a Democratic period in its history?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why did Scott Garrett lose? on: November 16, 2016, 01:45:31 am
oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

How come you don't want Josh Gottheimer to run for higher office?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What the hell happened in Nevada?! on: November 15, 2016, 03:06:50 pm
Someone vandalized the Wikipedia article for the Senate election by writing that Democrats brought out illegal immigrants to vote for Catherine Cortez Masto.
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: How to run for Congress in the future? on: November 15, 2016, 03:05:08 pm
Find an endangered incumbent or an open seat and run the right campaign in that district. Don't forget to move and/or change your party affiliation.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / A question about the 2016 election season on: November 15, 2016, 03:01:47 pm
What happened? Analysts predicted that Hillary Clinton would win and Donald Trump would drag down several Republicans on the ballot, but it ended up being a Republican year all around.

This election season is one straight out of the twilight zone because you had stuff like a political novice defeating an attorney general with name recognition for Governor of Missouri.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The Great Wall staring Matt Damon on: November 14, 2016, 06:11:19 pm
BUMP

Well, they released another trailer for the movie. It is about an incredible wall built to keep out dragons that are apparently from Mexico.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Nevada winnable for Trump? on: November 13, 2016, 02:51:04 pm
latino labor unions, to be specific.

major point.

As opposed to labor unions in general?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Nevada winnable for Trump? on: November 13, 2016, 02:09:48 pm
Yes, Nevada was winnable for Donald Trump, but the sizable Latino population and the labor unions in Clark County made it harder.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How would have Elizabeth Warren fared in the primary and general elections? on: November 13, 2016, 02:03:51 pm
Let's say that Elizabeth Warren decided that this was year to run for president, how would she have done?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How did Rod Blum survive? on: November 13, 2016, 12:44:07 pm
My observations from someone who actually lives in the state (though not the 1st District):

1. Iowans HATE Hillary Clinton. I don't know why, but they just do. She got trounced in 2008 by Obama and just barely eked out a win over Sanders in 2016. Iowa's Democrats are very, very liberal, and many of the ones I know that supported Sanders just went over to Gary Johnson instead. I'm sure that hurt Vernon too. There's also the possibility that many people that would have saved Vernon simply just stayed home.

2. Democrats I've talked to in the state really didn't like Vernon as a candidate. They also didn't like Pat Murphy either. Most Democrats I talked to supported Anesa Kajtazovic in 2014 and Ravi Patel in 2016 (he dropped out long before the filing deadline). And if Democrats didn't like her, then how did they expect independent voters to be attracted to her?

This, by the way, is the third consecutive election Vernon has lost. She lost the 2014 primary for this seat (barely losing to Pat Murphy), the 2014 governor's race as Jack Hatch's running mate (a race that was lost before it even began; I went to the Tom Harkin Steak Fry that year and Hatch was the one Democrat I saw ZERO yard signs for) and now this.

I think it was just a perfect storm that saved him. Anti-Clinton Democrats didn't turn up to the polls and they ignored Vernon as a candidate, either because they didn't know about her or they didn't care about her.

The good news for Democrats is that Andy McGuire is no longer the state party chair (I know a lot of Democrats, myself included, weren't really huge fans of hers). So hopefully change will happen.

This post has been very informative, especially for those who've only been to Iowa once (me). Did Mike Coffman survive for similar reasons aside from being entrenched?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / How did Rod Blum survive? on: November 13, 2016, 12:26:27 pm
While 2016 was a Republican year, Monica Vernon had a shot of taking out Rod Blum. He was a one-term congressman in a D+5 district.
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