That is a very neat solution given the awkward geography and numbers. Think your two Middlesborougs are the best that can be done, sure a little tidying could be suggested but that's pretty good going.

I am to restart my Lancs/Gtr Manc attempt this afternoon, once the lasagne is done in the oven

The idea that people take seriously these opinion polls (and extrapolate figures using 'uniform swing') is hilarious. Yes, we are taking  a dip in the polls at the moment, but we've done that before and still got out of elections stronger than ever. This year we took a dip just before polling day, these things happen.

I understand Tim Farron being concerned about the coaliton, but I still stand by the agreement as being ultimately far better than being dragged back to a costly, uncosted Labour alternative.

I hope the Boundary Commission are reading this...

Rather than "We're going to have an election when we feel it would be advantageous for us to do so"

(3) The second and subsequent constituencies shall be allocated in the
same way, except that the electorate of a part of the United Kingdom
to which one or more constituencies have already been allocated is to
be divided by—
where C is the number of constituencies already allocated to that
part.

— being C+1? That would be D'Hondt. — being C+0.5 would be Sainte-Lague except for an irregularity with the first seat that wouldn't have any practical effect.

Yeah, the equation is an image so it didn't copy over.

This sort of upsets all our maths, doesn't it?

You'll like this...

David  Boothroyd in "another place" has pointed out that allocations of seats this time round will NOT be simply county-by-county....


This is Section 9 of the Act:

""The allocation method
8 (1) The allocation method referred to in rule 3(2) is as follows.
(2) The first constituency shall be allocated to the part of the United
Kingdom with the greatest electorate.
(3) The second and subsequent constituencies shall be allocated in the
same way, except that the electorate of a part of the United Kingdom
to which one or more constituencies have already been allocated is to
be divided by—
where C is the number of constituencies already allocated to that
part.
(4) This rule does not apply to the constituencies mentioned in rule 6,
and accordingly the electorate of Scotland shall be treated for the
purposes of this rule as reduced by the electorate of those
constituencies."


So....that's the d'Hondt method......Confused? I certainly am......

Thank you.

I am not surprised to read that these "tea party" types are so extreme, reactionary and shallow. They are protesters without a cause, subscribers to slogans rather than philosophy, angry only at their own position rather than the policies of those they claim to oppose. I have tried to follow the argument of "tea party" protestors  before; it becomes impossible to untangle the insult from the content.

It is very easy to be "anti-everything". Palin is a  perfect example of this - the bulldog-grizzly bear-pink elephant hybrid without any political nous to call her own.  Her election win in 2012 would be an absolute travesty of democracy and justice.

I blogged about this (www.liampennington.blogspot.com).  It would be terrible if Five was bought by Desmond, not because I am against him per se, but because of the other swirling broadcasting issues in the UK at the moment a further decline in overall standards of a national broadcaster is the last thing we need. It would be an issue for both OFCOM and the Competition Commission, in any case.

Given just how extreme both the Express and Star have become - the former using the word "Ethnics" in a front page headline - I fear for the continued neutrality of British news broadcasting. Look out for how far SKY News is straining the neutrality rules. I sincerely do not want, and the UK certainly does not need, "personalities" on the news channels as happens in the US.

2010 electoral figures, from the Boundary Commision themselves, has the West Midlands at 1,921,952. So dividing by the new quota has an entitlement of 25.335, down from 26.867.  A loss of 2 seats then?

Yeah, the current regulations say wards are building blocks and they favour keeping them as whole units. I don't have the figures to hand, but I do look at Birmingham (as one extreme example) and wonder how they are going to divide such huge wards into 72-79k seats!

I'd love to see her appoint a tea party administration. I can taste it right now.

And it tastes like charity-shop tea made with sour milk.

Working between 72k and 79k (ish) certainly makes my Lancashire problem seem a little easier now, LOL. Things are looking up!

Can't help but wonder about split wards. Doesn't seem to say anything about that in the new legislation, does it?

The new Fixed Term Parliaments Bill is now on line (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmbills/064/2011064.pdf)

((And long over due it is too! How sad and pathetic it has been all these generations to see the United Kingdom as the only civilised and advanced western democracy anchored to the past by the right of the Prime Minister of the day to call an election when he or she chooses))

The prosiac sections we need to be very proud of are:

Section 1(2) and 1(3)

(2) The polling day for the next parliamentary general election after the passing of
this Act is to be 7 May 2015.
(3) The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the
first Thursday in May in the fifth calendar year following that in which the
polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell.

And then there's lovely little consequential movements such as:

Septennial Act 1715 (c. 38)
2 The Septennial Act 1715 is repealed

What do you think is meant by the "Commission can take account of the extent of the European Parliament electoral regions" thing? Does that imply that counties/UAs/met borough boundaries can be crossed, even if it's not said explicitly?

There's a few not in the UN - the non-regonised nations for a start (Western Sahara, Nagano-Karabakh, Northern Cyprus, etc etc )

[all over again]

First draft of the Bill published: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmbills/063/2011063.pdf

Here's a rundown of the new Rules for the Redistribution of Seats:

1. There will be 600 constituencies for the UK.

2. The quota will be the parliamentary electorate of the UK minus Orkney and Shetland and Na hEi Na Heail Western Isles, divided by 598.  (So, sorry, we're going to have to work it out all over again.)  Every constituency must be within 5% of the quota except where stated below.

3. No constituencies crossing the boundaries between the four home nations.

4. No constituencies with an area of more than 13000 km^2.  Constituencies with an area of more than 12000 km^2 are allowed to be more than 5% below quota.

5. The Boundary Commissions can take all the usual factors into account (geographical considerations, local government boundaries, local ties and inconvenience caused by changing boundaries).

6. Orkney and Shetland and Na Healanna Western Isles can stay as they are.

7. Seats in Northern Ireland can deviate from the quota a little more if |(Northern Ireland's electorate) - (UK electoral quota) x (number of seats for Northern Ireland)| is more than one-third of the electoral quota.  This is because Norn Iron is quite small and probably won't work out very evenly.

8. Seats shall be apportioned between the home nations using the Ste-Lague process (but Orkney and Shetland and Western Isles won't count in the Scotland total).

Other boundary-related highlights include:

- The first Boundary Commission reports are due on 1.10.13 with reports every five years afterwards.
- The Boundary Commissions will have to submit annual progress updates to the Speaker while reviews are in progress.
- Reviews must take a maximum of 2 years 10 months (so the next one starts on 1.12.10).
- The next review does not have to take inconvenience caused by changing boundaries into account (although local ties can still be claimed. Work that one out.).
- No more local inquiries - instead the consultation period for provisional and revised recommendations is increased to 12 weeks.
- The link between parliamentary and Welsh Assembly constituencies will be broken, so the Welsh Assembly constituencies will not be affected by any of this.

Getting out the December 2009 electorate figures we have:

England	38,129,082	503 seats
Wales	2,261,269	30 seats
Scotland excluding islands	3,814,502	50+2 seats
Northern Ireland	1,160,757	15 seats
TOTAL	45,365,610	598+2 seats

The electoral quota would be 75,862 with an allowable range of 72,069 to 79,655.  The special provision for Northern Ireland doesn't actually make a difference on these figures.

I will have to redraw Wigan, then, I've got a Makerfield seat with 82,000 !

I'm glad that there is a December (ish) start date, that gives me some time to fathom out other regions It does seem like the Commission will be rather pushed for time, and that could mean dismissing cross-county creations out of hand? This could be something to watch, is there any clue about what it means for, say, crossing UA and county boundaries?

No more local inquries!!!!!


But.....but.....I liked going to those =<

*yawn* 

Remember that the decision is "non binding".  But I was talking last night to friends of mine who are rather "up" on their history and the consequences of this.

One extreme could be (and this is a BIT extreme but there is truth within) - Kurdistan goes "You know what, if Kosovo can do it, so can I" ,which kicks off Turkey into retaliation, Armenia/Azerbaijan see it as a flag allowing them to cause merry Hell over their disputed areas in addition to fending off their now feuding neighbours....This sucks in Georgia and ultimately Russia.....

Before anyone knows where they are, it's kicking off in Cyprus between Greeks and Turks and a second Ottoman is on the cards.......

Northumberland and Cumbria? HAHA! Oh me oh My!  I would like to see how that would work - Penrith and..... Hexham? No, is that too far out? It would be a great mess...

"ICJ says Kosovo statehood 'legal'" - http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2010/07/201072213840362357.html

Yeah same here, been trying since 2.  Wiki hasn't been updated either, maybe the editors there are waiting for the ICJ website to wake up like the rest of us!

=<

To borrow a meme from another forum I visit, "****ing pigs"

Heh yeah, for British readers, the first part of this isn't wrong at all