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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 17, 2017, 04:35:10 pm

John McDonnell (Shadow Chancellor): Polls are showing Labour is going to win the election

This is very problematic in terms of logic and math.  It is one thing to say the polls are wrong it is another to say polls which show at best LAB behind CON by 14% shows that LAB is going to win.

It's quite hard to know who's most separated from reality between him and Diane Abbott...
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Local Elections, 4th May 2017 on: May 04, 2017, 08:04:13 pm
Labour doing as badly as expected while UKIP is being completely wiped out is so very pleasing. I really should go to sleep but these results are just too pleasing to stop watching.  
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: May 02, 2017, 01:29:25 am
Poll of polls for APRILl - Svensk Väljaroppinion (EKOT)

Left (V): 7.8%
Social Democrats (S): 28.7%
Greens (Mp): 4.1%

S+V+Mp: 40.6%

Liberals (L): 5.5%
Centre Party (C): 12.9%
Moderates (M): 17.3%
Christian Democrats (Kd): 3.2%

M+C+L+Kd: 38,9%

Sweden Democrats: 17.6% (-0.2)
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread on: May 01, 2017, 03:35:29 pm
Conservatives - 42,4% - 377 seats (+47)
Labour - 27,5% - 186 seats (-46)
LibDem - 11,0% - 11 seats (+3)
UKIP - 7,9% - 0 seats (-1)
SNP - 4,3% - 52 seats (-4)
Green - 3,1% - 1 seat (NC)
Plaid Cymru - 0,6% - 4 seats (+1)
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: April 26, 2017, 02:46:54 am
New DN/Ipsos poll out today.

Who would you rather have as Prime Minister....

...Stefan Löfven or Annie Lööf?

All voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 49%
Annie Lööf (C): 51%


Anyway, I don't really think you can put too much blame on Kinberg-Batra personally for the Moderates currently awful polling numbers. I mean don't get me wrong, she obviously lacks charisma and has the whole "snobbish" problem going on but I seriously doubt any other Moderate politician would be doing better at the moment.

The problem, as I see it, is that M's turn to the right has alienated their centrist and progressive voters while their former voters on the right who has jumped ship to SD still don't trust them on immigration and feels as if the party isn't genuine in their support for more restrictive immigration policies.

The party could choose a more Conservative leader and win some SD voters but would alienate their centrist flank even more... or they could choose someone more Liberal and pro-immigration and keep bleeding support to SD. Either strategy would result in the same dismal or even worse support than now. 

If AKB's was to leave, I have a hard time seeing who could realistically replace her? Elmsäter-Svärd and Björling has left politics, Ask and Billström  are spent forces, Svantesson is too socially-conservative (especially on abortion), Hanif Bali is too young and too radical and so on.

The only three people I could see are Ulf Kristersson, Karin Enström or Peter Danielsson and I don't think either of those are likable or charismatic enough to do anything for the voters to save M's numbers.

Johan Forsell would of course also be an alternative. But it would be a shame to spoil the party's most promising future leader on an election that looks like it'll go terribly wrong for the party.     
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread on: April 23, 2017, 02:33:12 am
26% - Le Pen (FN)
23% - Macron (EM)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --
20% - Fillon (LR)
18% - Mélenchon (Communist)
  6% - Hamon (PS)

  7% - Others

7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Unpleasant Kuckdom general election 2017: your vote? on: April 20, 2017, 07:09:36 am
I'd vote for the LibDems in constituencies where they have an actual shot at winning or in ridiculously safe Labour seats where my vote wouldn't matter any way but otherwise the Tories to keep out crazy Corbyn and safe-keep a stable government. 

(In NI I'd vote for Alliance obviously, only sane choice)
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Process Discussion (latest: 55-44 to begin debate) on: April 06, 2017, 11:34:55 am
Democrats will be thankful that the Republicans killed the filibuster for them once they're back in the majority.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Ask Antonio (Almost) Anything on: April 06, 2017, 07:37:03 am
Fascinating reading in this thread. I have two rather large questions.

1) Which political thinkers or politicians have in your mind been most important or influential in shaping Social Democracy as a whole and/or your own personal ideology and why?

2) Over our years on this forum you and I have occasionally clashed over our view on the European Union. If I have understood your opinion correctly, you recognize that there are several institutional problems with the EU but you think that these can be fixed to turn the union into a force of good. What would you say are the biggest institutional problems with the way the union functions today and how do you propose to solve those problems?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 06, 2017, 03:06:52 am
So it looks like my dream might very well come true. That's not a good thing.

It's more and more shaping up to be a mirror of the Austrian 1st round ...

Le Pen = Hofer (or even closer: Strache), the established candidates from the Far-Right
Macron = Griss (the unused centrist candidates)
Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars)
Fillon = Khol (the used candidates from the disgraced center-right)
Hamon = Hundstorfer (the used candidates from the disgraced center-left)
Dupont = Lugner (the weird right-liberal candidates)

There is one major difference between Austria 1.0 and France 1.0 though:

Fillon has a better standing than Khol did (17-20% vs. 11%), so Le Pen will not reach 35% like Hofer, but will top out at 28% at best.

Except for the fact that the far-right candidate will come in first to loose in the second round it's barely anything like the Austrian presidential race. You just always need to find a way to bring Austrian politics into everything. Roll Eyes

The fact that you put an equal sign between the far-left demagogue Melenchon and the respected centrist Green Van Der Bellen show how far-fetched you have to to be make it "the same", and even then it doesn't work because Melenchon is no where close to come in second at the moment, still polling around 15-17% in most polls and thus in fourth place.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: ask Hashemite anything on: April 05, 2017, 08:21:51 am
Will you return to your blog to make an epic post about the 2017 French Presidential Election once it is all over?

Which candidate do you personally favour in said presidential election? (Not sure if that falls into the category of opinion on policy and/or ideology or not)
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: April 05, 2017, 04:15:55 am
Social Democrats are messaging  rightwards in the law and order sphere (trigger warning: politico)


The article is a bit misleading if you ask me. It's true that the Social Democrats have started to use a sterner tone when it comes to crime and immigration recently compared to how they have sounded the past decade. It's also true that they have proposed adopting tougher stances on immigration for their upcoming party congress. However those positions aren't in any way anything that is unprecedented for the party.

The Social Democrats have always been quite centrist on social issues except for the last ten years when they've moved in a more progressive direction. Historically they've supported a strong military as a way to safe-keep Sweden's neutrality policy. Since they don't want us to have any official allies we need to be strong enough to defend ourselves. It's just the Greens who have been idealistically pacifist wanting to cut down on military spending. The party has also for the most part been for a rather restrictive immigration policy and as recently as the early 2000's they feuded with the Greens over deportation of illegal immigrants.

When the article makes it sound as an unprecedented move on the Social Democrats part, that's not true. It's actually more of a move back to business as usual. Not that the move won't be controversial with-in the party, especially with the youth-wing or will cause friction with the Greens but it isn't anything new really. 
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Austria now has gay partnership + full adoption rights on: April 04, 2017, 02:12:00 am
Sooner or later this will be the case anyway I guess, because some hetero couple will sue that they are discriminated against the gays, who have the better system.

That actually happened in Sweden before we adopted a gender neautral gender law. Several straight couples applied to become "registered partners" because they preferred that over actually being married and took it to the court when they were denied.

See that, I went all Tender Branson on this thread and made it about my own country instead.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why is Kaliningrad not part of Lithuania (or Poland)? on: April 02, 2017, 09:59:40 am
It's strategically important - assigning Kalingrad to Lithuania would mean Russia would have lost its only permanently non-frozen port.
St Petersburg? All the ports in the Black Sea? All their ports in the far east? (like say, Vladivostok)

St. Petersburg freezes in winter.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Norway election, 11th September 2017 on: March 22, 2017, 06:00:55 pm
Good to see that the Norwegian Centre Party is doing just as well as the Swedish one. Smiley We Agrarians will rule Scandinavia once more!

16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: March 21, 2017, 05:41:43 am
For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two.

Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least.
"Whatabouter" spotted

Huh "This candidate is a worse person than that candidate but has less harmful policies" isn't whataboutery, it's a normal political calculation.

Yeah, Antonio has clearly stated he'll vote for Macron in the run-off when if Macron faces off against Le Pen so he can hardly be compared to someone who voted Jill Stein or stayed home in a swing state.

Don't get me wrong. I think Antonio is delusional for preferring Mélenchon over Macron, but that's because I think Socialism in general is delusional. Tongue
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 20, 2017, 01:03:34 pm
What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar. 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 15, 2017, 06:10:06 pm
It's going to be a colorful map this year.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: March 10, 2017, 06:20:40 pm
People angry at the moderates for opening up to SD, it would seem.

The rise of the party actually started long before the Moderates' flirt with SD. That just accelerated the trend. Centre leader Annie Lööf has had very good approval numbers since the 2014 election (yes, the same Annie Lööf that used to be as popular as the plague).

The party has done a good job reconnecting with its rural base, talking a lot about the division between cities and rural areas, attacking the government for not doing enough for rural areas while at the same time cooperating with them to implement some good policies such a moving government jobs from Stockholm to smaller towns and cities.

At the same time the party finally seems to be making inroads in the cities (especially Stockholm) thanks to its immigration and economic policies. They have gained from liberal-minded Greens and centrists Moderates who're both disappointed with their old parties.

I'd reckon the numbers also has a fair bit to do with voters who generally dislike both the Conservative right in M/SD and our incompetent Red-Green government. Similarly to how the LibDems used to win folks who hated both Tories and Labour simply by being neither.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Swedish IKEA Death Metal Quiz on: January 24, 2017, 06:10:45 am
16/20, based on gut feeling, but it's probably also easier for those who know a little Swedish like me. Scandinavians should be able to get an even better score.

You were right, I got them all.

IKEA furniture is actually mostly named after Scandinavian towns. So whenever it sounds like it's a place in Sweden or Norway, it's furniture.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: January 20, 2017, 09:17:50 am
The difference between the Moderates and the two small socially liberal Alliance parties seem to be getting bigger and bigger.

At this point I don't think it's possible to form an "Alliance" government even after the 2018 elections. The divide over immigration policy has become to infected for there to be a compromise all four parties can get behind. On the other hand very few members of either the Centre Party or the Liberals seem to want to prop up a Social Democratic government either. It'll be interesting to watch how this develops over the coming months, but I think that Sweden is moving in a Norwegian direction with the Moderates moving closer to SD, with them playing the part of Höyre and Frp respectively, with the small social liberal parties C and L forming a semi-independent centre-right in the middle like Venstre and KrF. 
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why are parties that call themselves "Centre" almost always actually right wing? on: December 13, 2016, 04:49:46 am
The Finnish Centre Party (originally called Agrarian League) was originally a party for small-farmers who rejected socialism but couldn't bring themselves to vote for the main right-wing parties because they viewed them as representing rich city folks who don't understand the countryside.

Yeah it's basically the same history for all three of the Nordic Centre Parties. Just like the Labour and Social Democratic parties started out as the political arm of the trade unions, the Agrarian Leagues started as the political arm of different farmer movements with their primary objective to defend and advance rights for farmers. 

Since farmers are land owners (and thus technically capitalists) they couldn't accept Socialism as an ideology. On the other hand farmers in Norway, Sweden and Finland were much poorer than their continental counterparts, due to the worse climate, so they neither felt at home with the outright right-wing parties. Thus their party came to align between the two, thus ending up in the centre of the old political landscape.

Over time the Centre parties also worked with both the left and right in all three countries. In Sweden they went into coalition with the Social Democrats in the 30's, and then again in the 50's. During the 70's, as the Social Democrats with Palme in charge turned left, they however found themselves closer to the centre-right and formed a government with them with Fälldin as leader. Still in the late 90's they had a good working relationship with Social Democratic Prime Minister Göran Persson. It's only after 2000 that the party started to gain a more stable centre-right identity.     
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Why is Dan Malloy unpopular? on: November 29, 2016, 10:37:08 am
Dannel Malloy is my favorite governor. Honestly.


Because to some people being an ideological hack is more important than good governance.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 24, 2016, 03:47:47 am
thanks, morden, i should have more specifically asked for a successful bid of such a candidate (i guess accepting the ambassadorship from obama even harmed his candidacy) but i agree now that it would be possible.

Well there was former UN Ambassador George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988 if you're looking for a successful former ambassador. ^^ 
Yeah, but he was also a former Congressman, CIA Director, Ambassador to China, and Vice President Tongue

True enough, but Haley will have been Governor for six years as well so it's not as if UN Ambassador will be her first important post and I think he original question was whether somebody had made a come-back from holding a position as ambassador to become president afterwards.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jill Stein files for a recounts in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on: November 24, 2016, 03:27:44 am
Throw  her off a boat already! I don't care if she's feeling remorse or more likely just wants attention. There is absolutely no evidence for there being any election rigging going on in Wisconsin and this just show that Stein is as out there as Trump and his supporters are.

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