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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many of your grandparents were alive when you were born? on: October 13, 2014, 12:20:32 pm
Three. My maternal grandfather died when my mum was only 17, so before she even met my dad.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: October 10, 2014, 05:52:37 am
Just out of curiosity, was the Riksbank monetary policy an issue in these elections from the perspective of average voter? Has it been one in the aftermath? Is the new government going forward with the plan to change the mandate?

I think the Riksbank policy in the last few years played a major role in these elections outcome (arguably decisive).

1) No    2) No   3) I don't know, but probably not.


3  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Cousin marriage on: October 08, 2014, 10:40:27 pm
Let them marry! If we're going to limit two persons, who love each other, the right to matrimony we better have damn good reasons for doing so, and since the genetics of it is only a problem if it's double first cousins, or if it happens over several generations, I don't really consider that a strong enough argument in favour of a ban. And the "uwww gross" argument is as ridiculous here as it is when it comes to same-sex or interracial marriages.   
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: October 03, 2014, 09:19:09 am
Here it is, the new cabinet in all its glory, meeting for council with the HM the King for the first time:





Is Ardalan Shekarabi just really short, or is it Gabriel Wikström and Alice Bah Kuhnke that are really tall?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: October 02, 2014, 10:57:37 am
V abstained too? God, this is gonna be a trainwreck.

Rough translation of what Hans Linde, Left Party group leader and whip, said in the debate preceding the vote:

Quote
Mr Speaker, when centre-right governments have lost elections, and Parliament has held a vote on a new Social Democratic Prime Minister, the Left Party has traditionally voted in favour of their confirmation. We did so in 1982, as well as in 1994. However today the Left Party will lay down their votes and abstain in the vote to confirm the Speaker's proposal for new Prime Minister and I want to take the opportunity to motivate our decision.

During the election campaign our party was clear on the question of government. We wanted to see a Red-Green coalition with the Social Democrats, the Left Party, and the Greens. A Red-Green three party coalition would have meant a stronger government, with greater support in this chamber, but most importantly such a government could for real changed the political course of this country, and mend the foundation of a safer labour market, a feminist society, and a welfare system which you can rely on. Stefan Löfvén had a choice, and still has a choice, to govern to his left, or to his right. We regret that Stefan Löfvén choose, already the day after the election, and with-out any negotiations with us, to shut the door on a Red-Green three party coalition.

<snip>

This means that the Left Party now takes the role of opposition. Naturally we will be prepared to strike agreements with the government on certain issues, BUT we will not become their passive support. We are now prepared to bear the responsibility of being the left-wing alternative in Swedish politics and in the Swedish Parliament.


Sounds like something you'd say, does it not Antonio? ^^
It's not hard to read some heavy criticism of the new administration in between the lines. 
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: October 02, 2014, 07:14:07 am
Parliament is in session right now to hold the confirmation vote on the nomination of Löfvén as Prime Minister.

132   YES (S+MP)
049   NO (SD)
154   ABSTAIN (M+C+V+FP+KD)

Stefan Löfvén is (unsurprisingly) confirmed as Prime Minister by parliament.

EDIT: The new government will be presented tomorrow morning together with Löfvén's Government Policy Declaration (think Queen's Speech). 
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: October 02, 2014, 07:00:42 am
Parliament is in session right now to hold the confirmation vote on the nomination of Löfvén as Prime Minister.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 30, 2014, 08:30:56 am
They're making want to make high school compulsory for some unfathomable reason.

They're not making anything compulsory as long as there is a thorough majority against it in parliament.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 30, 2014, 04:36:21 am
That's an SAP voting immigrant area, what is the other one with 50,3% for V + FI?  Students or some alternative lifestyle types?

Students and hipsters.


Somehow I have a hard time wrapping my head around the idea of Malmö hipsters Wink.

Malmö together with Södermalm, is actually the hipster capital of Sweden. Tongue (It actually has the nickname Little Berlin, for this very reason) Although the city is most known (especially in Denmark I might imagine) by its infamous immigrant areas, it also has really well-off upper-crust suburbs, and old town inner-city areas, as well as a heap of hipster neighborhoods, most notoriously Möllevången, but most off the south inner city as well as Kirseberg would fit the description.

 
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 30, 2014, 04:00:55 am
That's an SAP voting immigrant area, what is the other one with 50,3% for V + FI?  Students or some alternative lifestyle types?

Students and hipsters.


Interesting to see S losing to V. Was this trend replicated in other immigrant-heavy SAP strongholds in Malmö and/or Sweden as a whole?

As far as I can tell from looking at a few precincts, it does seen to be somewhat of a national trend. V has been campaigning offensivly in those areas as well, so it's not too surprising.

Söder (SD) is now officially elected as 2nd deputy speaker. The finally tally was 292 blank votes, 52 for Söder.

Why they just did not voted for somebody else? This sounds stupid.


It was, but most of the parties didn't want to break 100-year-old precedent, but still felt the need for  an unnecessary silly protest against SD, you know just so that people doesn't somehow get the idea that they like SD just because they don't want to break precedent. Roll Eyes
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 29, 2014, 03:08:05 pm
Hilariously, FI nearly won a precinct in Södermalm (17.7% in Högalid 8 Bergsund N: Social Democrats just pipped them with 18.3%).

They did win this precinct in Malmö.

83%+ for the left/centre-left is impressive. Is that the most leftist precinct in Sweden?

No, that would probably be this one, in another part of Malmö.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 29, 2014, 02:54:55 pm
Hilariously, FI nearly won a precinct in Södermalm (17.7% in Högalid 8 Bergsund N: Social Democrats just pipped them with 18.3%).

They did win this precinct in Malmö.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: PR with combination of party list and personal vote on: September 29, 2014, 02:35:26 pm
In Austria you have a party list, but with preferential candidate voting.

In theory, if a candidate who's let's say ranked 50th on the list, starts a preference voting campaign and that candidate receives a ton of votes, then that person will get ranked 1st on the list after the election (unless some other candidate has more preference votes).

This is also how it works in Sweden.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 27, 2014, 06:57:13 am
SKÅNE
(S+V+MP) vs. (M+C+FP+KD)

2002:




2006:



2010:



2014:



15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 26, 2014, 10:27:46 am


What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.   

That's the pragmatic and careful approach - and Löfven is a very pragmatic and careful man, but there is the alternative of promoting your own policy and letting the opposition shoot it down, giving them the responsibility for a political stalemare and then taking things to the voters.
Also, in this scenario SD would be forced to either back the governments socioeconomic policies or be identified as economic right wingers, which would harm them.

I don't really think that strategy would work in Sweden, mostly because in difference to Denmark, the Prime Minister is not in control of early elections. He/She can't just jump on the first carriage to the palace and ask the monarch to dissolve parliament when it feels right. Early elections only happen if the government fail to pass their budget, or the Prime Minister is defeated in a Vote of No Confidence, and the Speaker fails to nominate a new Prime Minister.

The opposition is obviously not going to oust a Social Democratic PM if it looks as if the government would gain by it, and it would look too opportunistic if the centre-left ousted themselves by passing a Vote of No Confidence against their own Prime Minister.

So the tactic would require 4 years of stalemate and might not even pay of in the end, as the centre-right is obviously going to try the blame game right back at them. And as you note, Swedish voters tend to like pragmatism (at least in theory, if not so much in practice).

There's no point in winning elections if you don't try to form a government afterwards. Particularly when failing to do so could result in a political crisis that you'd be blamed for.
   

Also this!
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 26, 2014, 08:48:12 am


<3


Quote
How do you mean? The obvious answer is that Skåne and Halland are pretty rich areas, just like Stockholm, and thus very predictably vote more right-wing.

How about Bohuslen? Is it above average as well?

Yes, Bohuslän basically consists of 1) Evangelical Fishers (Votes KD), 2) Wealthy Gothenburg suburbs, and 3) Upper-crust coastal vacation towns.

What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.   
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 24, 2014, 08:15:44 am
Scandinavia and the World weights in on the election. 

18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 21, 2014, 01:22:23 am
I think there is something wrong with the sovereignty-integration dimension, I will check it again.

Concerning the Left-Right dimension, here is how it looks like if I try to split it up:



I don't know Sweden politics enough to really analyse it. Concerning the difference between V and FI, there is a small difference on economic issues, but the main gap is on social issues, which is a bit weird at first sight. Apparently it's because of completely opposite positions on drugs. Is is true or a mistake in the survey?


The survey in general seems a bit fishy if you ask me. (Especially considering the June List) I don't know that much about either V or FI's politic positions when it comes to drugs to say in that particular case, though it seems strange that such a (from a Swedish perspective) minor issue would  affect the left-right scale in such a drastic manner.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 20, 2014, 10:32:54 am
No comment on my charts? :/

They were very beautiful charts, though I'm slightly unsure over your decisson to use the same line for both New Democracy and SD.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 12:15:08 pm

Yeah I see some problems with this one.

Fi's economic policies are very close to V, they should be much closer each other on the left-right scale than you have put them. FP should be the most EU positive out of all parties (they're federalist) and C should be the most EU-skeptical out of the Alliance parties.

The June List doesn't actually want to leave the European Union, so they are by no means more EU skeptical than V, they're also founded by former Social Democrats, so they should neither be the furthest right on this scale. Putting SD to the right of M is also... very questionable.

Why is the June List even on this btw? They're as good as non-existent these days. They only got eight votes in total this election.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 11:41:56 am
So now that the final votes have been tallied we can see that some important people have lost their parliamentry seats:

Maria Larsson, Minister for the Elderly and Public Health, and Christian Democratic Deputy Leader lost her seat in Jönköping, as did another Christian Democrat, Minister of Housing, Stefan Attefall.

Anna Karin Hatt, Minister of Energy, fell short in retaining the Centre Party seat in Södermanland.

The Moderates' Party Secretary, Kent Persson, will leave together with the Party Secretary of the People's Party, Nina Larsson. And the Economic Spokespersons of both KD, Anders Sellström, and FP, Carl B. Hamilton will also be forced to leave.

The Christian Democrats especially have had their ranks savaged by this election. Pretty good news for Göran Hägglund in that there will be very few people left to challenge him for the leadership. 



 

As much as I like to be smug about every superior quality in all things Scandinavian, and I do like that very much...

Yes but you also like to point out everything you dislike about Sweden, so it's not really that much out of character. Wink


22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 01:06:33 pm
No one would really benefit from early elections.

Well, there's actually a good chancee Jimmie Åkesson would...
But yeah, the other party leaders are well aware that they don't want another election at this moment. Still, when did common sense stop mass hysteria in the press?

Yes, thank you! I didn't realize that triggered a new election. Though, I was under the impression that they were more to the left on government/economic issues, is it certain that the right bloc's budget would be the "least bad" to them?

No it's not certain at all. Quite honestly, as Jimmie Åkesson himself said, it's most unlikely that any buget presented by the other parties would be considered acceptable by SD. But, once again, it would be a shame if that kept the press from having some good old hysteria. 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 12:45:15 pm
The only sort of shocker is that the Sweden Democrats opened up for the idea of hypothetically supporting the "least bad" budget in a upcoming budget vote. Something that could end up bringing down the incoming government. This naturally caused a hysteric frenzy among the assembled journalists who seemed to be willing to declare early elections then and there, despite Jimmie Åkesson himself calling the scenario very unlikely.

Why would that potentially bring down the incoming government?

A failure to pass a budget in Sweden does not result in a government shut down, as it would in America. Instead the government is forced to resign and early elections are held. In other words, if SD would for some reason choose to vote for the Alliance's shadow budget instead of abstaining, that would mean the government's budget would have less votes than another budget and thus wouldn't pass, which means they'd be forced to resign.

Hope that is a clear answer to the question. Smiley 
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 12:13:25 pm
Meetings with the Speaker has continued through-out the day, and Christian Democratic leader Göran Hägglund was the last to leave the Speaker twenty minutes ago.

No real surprises has turned up. We'll get a minority coalition between the Social Democrats and Greens, with support on budget and economic issues by the Left Party. The three minor centre-right parties (C, FP, KD) have all said that they won't support or co-operate with the new regime on budgetary or economic issues, but are open to broad across the aisle agreements on certain issues. It is as anyone has reasonably expected.

The only sort of shocker is that the Sweden Democrats opened up for the idea of hypothetically supporting the "least bad" budget in a upcoming budget vote. Something that could end up bringing down the incoming government. This naturally caused a hysteric frenzy among the assembled journalists who seemed to be willing to declare early elections then and there, despite Jimmie Åkesson himself calling the scenario very unlikely.


The Left performed better for LANDSTINGs: 48.1, resulting in 9 overall maj.s of seats, 4 with local parties. 4 with rel. maj.s (and SD as kingmakers [but only in theory]), Stockholm&Halland could go either left&C or All.&MP, but Jönköping has a hypothetical maj. of S&V&SD, thus leading to left&C (or KD?).
 

Not really sure what you're trying say there Ebner... but negotiations for leadership of the counties (landsting) are ongoing. It's yet unclear who will govern in them, even in counties were S+V+MP have their own majority. Regional and local politics are quite different in Sweden... strange coalitions are no rare things. Just this morning I read that in the Social Democratic stronghold of Överkalix, the Moderates and the Left Party will enter into a coalition together to overthrow S.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 05:07:32 am
The Speaker of Parliament, Per Westerberg (M), is holding consultative meetings with represents for the eight parliamentary parties today in order to carve out possibilities for a new government.

In Sweden it is the Speaker who officially proposes the new Prime Minister to the chamber for their approval.

Stefan Löfvén was first out to visit the speaker, and told him that he wanted to form government as Prime Minister.

He was followed by Moderate whip and group leader Anna Kindberg Batra, who told the Speaker that there were no alternatives for a centre-right government and that it should rest upon the red-green opposition to form a stable alternative. The press mostly gave her questions on whether she'd stand for the leadership of the party later in the spring. (Which she of course refused to answer at the current moment)

Green co-leaders, Gustav Fridolin and Åsa Romson visited the Speaker together and told him they intended to form government together with Stefan Löfvén, and that they would enter budget negotiations with the Left Party, but also want a broader parliamentary cooperation across the aisle with C and FP later in the term.

The meetings with the speaker will continue after lunch, with Jimmie Åkesson being the next one being called for questioning at 1 pm.       

These meetings are mostly a formality, but it will be interesting to hear what SD and V has to say, especially about the coming budget. Stay tuned
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