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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 08:37:04 am
Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

We should not forget the possibility that it'll be ANEL, and not the SYRIZA left-wing that gets the short stick in this agreement. I think it's much more possible that Syriza runs over ANEL with left-wing policies, that will cause ANEL to rebel, than it is that they take a huge leap to the centre thereby annihilating their own caucus.

I have so far never heard of a coalition government where the dominant party didn't get to decide 90-95% of the policies leaving just crumbs to their partners, so I don't see why SYRIZA would actually give ANEL any meaningful influence on the new governments policy.   
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 07:04:36 am
Tsipras will break the tradition by not being sworn in by the head of Greece’s orthodox church, Archbishop Ieronymos.

Pissing off ANEL before he even gets started? Tongue
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 06:22:27 am
Well, the problem I pointed out still exists. We do not know exactly how many of the new MPs that are Left Platform, but it is about 25% of the party and they will be alienated from the start. This is going to be a trainwreck.

Also, you obviously love to say "I told you so" Wink Don't be a hypocrite.

I always assumed Syriza would be pragmatic when it came to coalition partner if they really needed a lot of seats (although I thought they would try Potami first), but not in a 148-149 scenario. This seems like an unnecessary gamble with possibly 30-40 left wingers among the MPs.

I also think Potami would have been a better choice as they are more close on matters not relating to the troika, but who still isn't tainted by the unpopularity of the current government. Syriza and Anel will obviously run into trouble agreeing on policy quite fast.

Still, I would expect Tsipras to have enough political savvy to know if this would cause mass defections from his caucus, so I don't think, initially at least, that that part will turn out to be a problem. Let's not forget that he is one of few leaders who managed to keep all his MPs through the last parliament.

(And yes, I do love it. Wink)    
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 05:56:05 am
Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise.

Bam! Hate to say I told you so... (/Yes I am an insufferable person)
He didn't even wait for KKE to say no. ^^
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do you think democracy can actually work in China? on: January 26, 2015, 05:27:28 am
The idea that China would not work as a democracy simply because they have no "democratic tradition" is one of the most ridiculous things I've read on this forum... guess what neither did most of Western Europe 100 years ago.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: has tinder ruined our society once and for all? on: January 25, 2015, 07:40:04 pm
like I've known what tinder is IN THE ABSTRACT of course, but I've been in a monogamous relationship since before it was invented, but tonight I went out with two dudes and they were on their phones swiping left and right and making awkward texting flirtations all goddamn night, and I've only just really realize the GRAVITY of the situation I suppose, jesus christ what have we done, we finally really did it



Oh you're only scratching the surface to the gates of hell, you should get antiquated with Grindr...


I'm not a big fan of Tinder but I also don't mind it that much. Never used it myself though. Did give my friend a job!

A blow job?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 03:36:08 pm
Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise. I'm sure a SYRIZA minority government would be fine for a few months, but what happens once they have to push their first controversial vote through parliament, or if a few MPs desert? If Tsipras wants to survive as PM, and actually accomplish something of value, he needs a coalition partner, and KKE isn't it. It is just a simple reality, and an election promise can't change that.  
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 03:07:58 pm
I generally believe that KKE are more genuine in their very old stance to never work with the bourgeois traitors in SYRIZA, than SYRIZA is genuine in their very recent stance to not work with To Potami. The idea that KKE would abstain to help SYRIZA survive requires that you think KKE actually wants to take responsibility in making the country operate... which is not how KKE works.

SYRIZA has an interest in getting a stable majority however, so that they are not throttled at their first unpopular decision, and a coalition is the only way to accomplish that if they don't crawl above 150 when everything is said and counted. 
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek parliamentary election predictions thread on: January 25, 2015, 06:11:30 am
34,70% SYRIZA
30,20% ND
  8,50% XA
  6,20% To Potami
  5,60% PASOK
  4,80% KKE
  3,30% ANEL
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2014-2015: Brace Yourselves, the Presidential Election is Coming on: January 23, 2015, 09:20:34 am
Although I agree with Politicus that the fair representation principle is more important in the abstract, such principle can only fully prevail in "civilized" countries like the Scandinavians, where a hung parliament doesn't result in utter chaos.

You haven't been paying attention to Sweden much this past autumn I hear. Tongue


When it comes to electoral law it does seem that Italy has a preference for making things as complicated as possibly imaginable. Which of course is fun for us election geeks, but must be really confusing for the average voter. And it does inevitably seem that no matter which system you have the voters seem to hand you unstable situations anyway.

I do really think Politicus raises an important point. The political system forms the political conduct, not only for the voters but also for the politicians. The reason that things are (supposedly) more civilized in Scandinavia is because our system forces there to be broad coalitions, while politicians in Britain are incapable of compromise with the other party because they're used to either always having all the power.

I don't think this system will last. What happens for example if the Lega becomes second largest party at the next election? Southern right-wingers voting for the Lega in the run off? I do really think you guys would have been much better off by just keeping the old system and just neuter the Senate's power, alternatively reforming the senatorial electoral law.   
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election 2015 on: January 22, 2015, 06:21:50 pm
Yes, but a DPP in government long enough could give way for something to emerge on its right, pretty much like AfD is doing for CDU/CSU right now.

Clearly and it could IMO also develop while they are in opposition, but would be very marginal. I see a 2-4% fringe party (dependent on how radical it became).

DPP is unlikely to enter government because 1) they don't want to lose their free rider status (and have seen what government did to SPP) 2) they could never agree with the Liberas on a common EU policy. Basically DPP will only get into government if they are significantly stronger than the three other blue bloc parties combined and can dictate EU (and immigration) policy to the others and this is completely unrealistic at the moment. You need a whole new balance of power with something like DPP 30%, Liberals 18%, Conservatives 3%, Liberal Alliance 4%.

How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2014-2015: Brace Yourselves, the Presidential Election is Coming on: January 14, 2015, 07:25:38 am
What are the potential candidates for new president?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 14, 2015, 05:58:16 am
Tsirapas now rules out cooperating with both Pasok, Potami and MDS and says he prefer to rely on support from KKE if Syriza doesn't get a majority.

LOL, has he checked that with KKE?
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Elections Without Thresholds on: January 13, 2015, 10:09:41 am
Sweden 2014:

Social Democrats - 109 (-4)
Moderates - 82 (-2)
Sweden Democrats - 45 (-4)
Greens - 24 (-1)
Centre Party - 22 (+/-)
Left Party - 20 (-1)
People's Party - 19 (+/-)
Christian Democrats -  16 (+/-)
Feminist Initiative - 11 (+11)
Pirate Party - 1 (+1)

Sweden 2010:

Social Democrats - 107 (-5)
Moderates - 105 (-2)
Greens - 26 (+1)
People's Party - 25 (+1)
Centre Party - 23 (+/-)
Sweden Democrats - 20 (+/-)
Left Party - 20 (+1)
Christian Democrats -  20 (+1)
Pirate Party - 2 (+2)
Feminist Initiative - 1 (+1)

Sweden 2006:

Social Democrats - 123 (-7)
Moderates - 92 (-5)
Centre Party - 28 (-1)
People's Party - 26 (-2)
Christian Democrats -  23 (-1)
Left Party - 20 (-2)
Greens - 18 (-1)
Sweden Democrats - 10 (+10)
Feminist Initiative - 2 (+2)
Pirate Party - 2 (+2)
Swedish Pensioners Party - 2 (+2)
June List - 2 (+2)
Health Party - 1 (+1)

15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where do you rank on the "privilege index"? on: January 12, 2015, 09:17:25 am
I would be a 2. (3, if you redefine American as citizen in a developed western democracy)

But really it's a junk index. Case in point, according to this measurement 1) Margret Thatcher was less privileged than the male coal miners she was battling against during the miners strike, 2)  my self being less privileged than a poor black, but straight and Christian man in Mississippi, and 3) the Queen of England being less privileged than BRTD.

Even if you belong to those that like to profess privilege to groups of people, instead of individuals (which, if you ask me, is an idiotic way to look at things, but to each his own) any index not including wealth and education are obviously a ridiculous instrument of measurement, which even the most politically correct must confess.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 08, 2015, 06:17:29 am
First YouGov of the year: 34/31/14/7/8

Also, it seems that the official campaign has begun, and it will be four months long. Yet another argument for the repeal of that idiotic Fixed Terms (aka Americanization) bill.

Why is it Americanisation? Most countries have fixed terms. Why couldn't it be Germanisation, or Swedenisation? Tongue

There still are early elections in Germany and Sweden.

There still are in the UK as well, under the fixed terms bill, so that is just a further argument that it's not Americanisation. Wink
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why the Sweden Democrats are rising (fast) on: January 06, 2015, 06:49:38 am
In Southern Sweden you might very well not get snow at all for years.

Lol no! We've always had snow every year for the 23 years I've lived in the far south. Sure some years it's only been a little and just for a few weeks, but the idea that we are most often salvaged from the power of snow for years down here is as faulty as the idea that there are Polar Bears roaming the streets of Sundsvall. Tongue

 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: January 06, 2015, 06:40:30 am
First YouGov of the year: 34/31/14/7/8

Also, it seems that the official campaign has begun, and it will be four months long. Yet another argument for the repeal of that idiotic Fixed Terms (aka Americanization) bill.

Why is it Americanisation? Most countries have fixed terms. Why couldn't it be Germanisation, or Swedenisation? Tongue
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election 2015 on: January 02, 2015, 02:25:52 pm
Well that turned out to be anticlimactic... I had expected Papandreou to give us something with a bit of substance at least. 

"A Movement which will work in the next parliament to secure all of the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the crisis."

I love a political party that tells us they will solve a problem with-out telling us how they plan solve it. Roll Eyes
The above statement could in practice mean almost anything, and since the party won't get a platform until after the elections it would seem they will fight the campaign on equally empty and meaningless rhetoric and talking points. If they actually manage to beat the 3% threshold I expect their parliamentary group to break down at the first tough vote.     

I give Papandreou an F for a jokingly bad attemt to create a new party. Someone should ask him why, since he claims to know the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the greek crisis, he didn't just solved the problem when he was Prime Minister. 
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Greece General Discussion on: January 02, 2015, 02:18:09 pm
Well that turned out to be anticlimactic... I had expected Papandreou to give us something with a bit of substance at least. 

"A Movement which will work in the next parliament to secure all of the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the crisis."

I love a political party that tells us they will solve a problem with-out telling us how they plan solve it. Roll Eyes
The above statement could in practice mean almost anything, and since the party won't get a platform until after the elections it would seem they will fight the campaign on equally empty and meaningless rhetoric and talking points. If they actually manage to beat the 3% threshold I expect their parliamentary group to break down at the first tough vote.     

I give Papandreou an F for a jokingly bad attemt to create a new party. Someone should ask him why, since he claims to know the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the greek crisis, he didn't just solved the problem when he was Prime Minister. 
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election 2015 on: December 30, 2014, 08:09:02 pm
Would a Syriza-Potami-Papandreou (should Papandreou get over 3%) be a realistic coalition, or would Papandreou refuse to join  such a constellation.

Also around what percentage would the 50 seat bonus give Syriza a majority? 
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: (Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018. on: December 28, 2014, 07:30:19 am
What is the majority view in Sweden with regards to immigration?

There was an opinion poll on the topic in May by SIFO which gave the following:

44% - Immigration is too high.
36% - Immigration is at a good level as is.
10% - Immigration is too low. 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: (Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018. on: December 28, 2014, 06:37:43 am
The Liberal People's Party is traditionally the most pro-immigrant?

I'm sure I remember about a decade ago the BBC was lumping them in with the National Front and Pim Fortuyn because they supposedly questioned immigration. Although the comparison itself was obviously sensationalist I imagine there was at least a little truth to the Liberals taking on the immigration issue.

If you'd read the entire section, you'd have had the answer. 

Folkpartiet is an odd party. It might be a correct analysis that the segment is smaller in FP, historically they have been the most pro-immigration party on the right, and despite the fact that Venstre is their official Danish sister party, when you look at their historic base and roots they're much more closely aligned to Radikale, which of course tells you something. But they were also flirting with the idea of stricter immigration policies in the early 2000's, and it was the FP mayor of Landskrona (now a Member of Parliament) who first neared SD on the local level, so it isn't entirely sure that it is smaller.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Please note that THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018. on: December 28, 2014, 06:04:55 am

So is Sweden becoming more and more like Austria where the major parties end up forming perpetual grand coalitions to keep out the neo-nazi racist party?

Well as I'm sure you can understand DL, it is either going the Austrian way, or the Danish way. 

The Austrian Way on this issue includes <snip>

When I say the Austrian way, I mean it as a simplified way of saying broad cooperation from left and right. I am of course aware of the fact that it isn't entirely correct historically as Austria (together with Italy) was the first Western European country to open up to a so called populist xenophobic party, even before Denmark. Just as when I say the Denmark way, that is only a simplified way of saying the other parties adapting to and including the party.

1. I imagine this segment must be quite small in Folkpartiet. How is the status in Centre?

2. KD seems already to have begun adjusting their immigration policy in a tougher direction.

3. At the end of the day the party that matters is the Moderates. If Sweden were to follow a  "Danish way"  (or even a "Norwegian way" with a shared government) SD and M could do it without the two small liberal parties and under the right circumstances also without KD.

So it is the internal dynamics in M that will be decisive, incl. whether the party is prepared to dump their Social Liberal option(s) (as the Liberals in Denmark dropped theirs). It is worth remembering that you risk handing over "free" coalition partners to the SocDems if you take that road as a Conservative party. The Danish Liberals did it in a situation where two of our three centrist parties were already "dead" (or dying in the case of KrF/KD).
The fact that the small Swedish centre-right parties are quite right wing on economics at the moment may make this less risky.
   

Folkpartiet is an odd party. It might be a correct analysis that the segment is smaller in FP, historically they have been the most pro-immigration party on the right, and despite the fact that Venstre is their official Danish sister party, when you look at their historic base and roots they're much more closely aligned to Radikale, which of course tells you something. But they were also flirting with the idea of stricter immigration policies in the early 2000's, and it was the FP mayor of Landskrona (now a Member of Parliament) who first neared SD on the local level, so it isn't entirely sure that it is smaller.

I could write an entire novel on the divisions on this issue within my own party, heck I could probably write a book just around my own local party club's division, but I'll leave it at the fact that such a section exist, and are in certain local councils very influential. But this is the party that two years ago was saying they might want completely free immigration so it isn't we that will take the leap.

The Moderates probably has the largest section, and while the similar sections in C, FP, and S who work very discretely, there are several people in the party openly calling for the Moderates to take that direction. That being said, between Reinfeldt and Anna Kinberg Batra the national leadership is dead-set against it.

KD is the obvious candidate. They're a Conservative party with Conservative values (make of that what you wish) and they desperately need a winning profile issue, and in difference to M, C, and FP their youth-wing isn't against the idea, quite the opposite Christian Democratic Youth could actually be described as the cheerleaders of such a development. Still even if they were to take the plunge... it's KD, their influence and the grand scale of things is well...   
 
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election 2015 on: December 27, 2014, 06:44:56 pm


Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma. Wink

Olaf Palme wasn't so boring...

Yes and that is why he was defeated twice by this man. Swedes want their Prime Minister to be boring.
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