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April 23, 2014, 04:42:10 am
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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who here has political ambitions? on: April 22, 2014, 06:55:21 pm
No, I hate campaigning. Besides, even if I had that ambition, my choice of party isn't really a good choice for someone who wants a political office in the future.   
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 22, 2014, 06:00:30 pm
It's not what you could call a "massive increase". Only 1.2 billion SEK of this 5.5 billion increase is fully financed today and half of that comes from "new priorities" in current defense spending and the other half comes from an increase in fines for some types of criminal offenses! It's just ridiculous. And the fact is that this announcement comes two weeks after the government presented a 300 million cut in defense spending in the spring budget and a few weeks before the joint parliamentary defense committee will present their proposal for future Swedish defense politics. Why couldn't they wait for that to ensure that there was long-term crossparty support in this crucial political area? The answer is it's all about electoral politics here. And I doubt it'll strenghten the government much, generally I think people will see through this or not even pay attention to it.

What? Politicians saying they'll do something purely for political gain? Surely not! I'm shocked and disgusted. Of course your party would never do that! Tongue
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 22, 2014, 05:50:10 am
Quote

A core problem for KD is that the natural tack for them is to become a modern conservative party. They've made moves in this direction, like when Hägglund talked about "the people of reality" or when Ebba Busch talked about limiting the state's powers and being like a watchdog towards the government. But a large part of their supporters are religious conservatives who sort of want government intervention in both the economy and on social issues. So they're a bit trapped in contradiction.

Just as a hypothetical question: If KD disappears how would their voters split? Would be 2% Moderates, 1% Center and 1% SD a good guess?

Interestingly enough there was a poll (Yougov) published this very morning on how people who voted for KD in '10 would vote today:

47,5% would still vote for KD
15,4% would either not vote or vote for a non-parliamentary party
11,5% would vote for SD
8,5% would vote for M
4,6% would vote for S
4,4% would vote for MP
4,1% would vote for FP
3,0% would vote for C
1,0% would vote for V

Not the same thing as what you're asking for, but it should give a hand-wave of how the party might split.
 

4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In what decade were your parents born? on: April 21, 2014, 04:41:52 pm
They were born in 1956 and 1959 respectively.

 

1936 and 1938.

Wow, you're much younger than I thought you were.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: is your hair dyed? on: April 21, 2014, 01:21:22 pm
Not at the moment, but I sort of had an emo face during high school where I sported black and red hair...   please don't judge me.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What are your favorite pieces of classical music? on: April 20, 2014, 05:38:51 pm
The final of Act 1 of Motzart's Cosi fan Tutte comes to mind.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 20, 2014, 05:29:48 pm
I'll vote for the Centre Party. Despite the fact that I'm sick to death of them, I like all the others far- far- less. Besides I want to see the party survive so that we can get some competent people back in charge of the party.

(Though I might be tempted to cast a protest vote for the Pirates in the EP election)
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: April 20, 2014, 03:14:42 pm
   Sorry if this has been brought up before, but has there been much discussion about what Scottish independence would mean for the Labor Party in Westminster, if they lost a huge base of support and seats due to losing Scotland?

It has, and the answer is that Scotland has too few seats to make a difference except in the most close elections. It won't lead to eternal Torie dominance forever. The real Labour base is Northern England, so unless Manchester and Liverpool suddenly want to become independent, left-wing Englishmen have nothing to fear.  

In difference to what Jerry said , it's not really like losing the entire West coast. Scotland doesn't even hold 10% of the UK population... 

Sure it'll make it harder, but not that much harder.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hide behind the poll: have you ever taken a picture of your genitals? on: April 20, 2014, 02:43:22 pm
Hiding behind polls is for wimps. Tongue

Well we can clearly see that at least 44% of the forum isn't afraid to reveal more of themselves than they have to.

10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hide behind the poll: have you ever taken a picture of your genitals? on: April 20, 2014, 02:37:27 pm
Gosh damnit forum. What part of hide behind the poll did you not understand. I didn't want to know which ones of you specifically took pictures of your...

(That being said, I'm surprised that "no" is actually leading.)
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 18, 2014, 04:12:01 am
I have a few questions about the Sweden Democrats and the center-right.
First of all. How is the relationship between the SD and the Alliance? I know the SD isn’t a part of the government, but is the Alliance relying on the SD for support in the Riksdag?

Second of all. How radical is the SD perceived to be among the public? I have read somewhere that the SD used to contain a lot of very extreme groups, like BootBoys and Nazis. I assume that is mostly a thing of the past?

It's a complicated question. But since the Alliance passed a more generous immigration policy with support of the Greens, they have not been popular among SD supporters and the Alliance still refuse to have any organised cooperation with SD. As for parliamentary support, SD's policies fall closer to the right, and they thus end up supporting the government more often than not, but that is not due to any love between them and the government.     

As for your second question it depends which part of the public you ask. Some Hipster area in Stockholm, they're considered worse than Hitler himself, while in rural Skåne, they're not seen as especially controversial.
But they've gotten rid of their most openly racist policies and the Nazis, who've moved on to the National Democrats (ND) and The Swedes' Party (SvP)


Is there a chance FI gains enough traction to reach the 4% threshold? It would be wonderful to see that happen. Cheesy

A chance? Yes, as I wrote they've gained significantly.
Do I think it's likely? No, but I know several political nerd friends who think they will.   
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 18, 2014, 02:54:16 am
Are the Swedendemocrats in the position to benefit of the discontent with the center-right government or wins only the left?

They are benefiting a lot from it. There was a poll in March by Yougov showing 13,5% of people who voted for the Moderates at the last election would vote for SD this time, whereas only 8,9% would vote for one of the left-wing parties.   
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 17, 2014, 08:21:58 pm
Surely that is killing any slight odds than the right had to keep power this fall?

If there were any small hopes before this, yeah they're deader than dead now. 
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 17, 2014, 06:07:40 pm
Swedish politics lately has been focused on two things:

1. The Nuon Affair/Scandal

The Swedish state owned energy company Vattenfall (Water Fall) in February 2009 bought up the Dutch energy company Nuon for the price of 89 billion SEK (equaling £ 9,7 billion/ $ 13,5 billion) which makes it the most expensive purchases by a state-owned company in Swedish history .

Last summer the purchase came to the front of the political battlegrounds as it was concluded that the company basically was only worth 42% of the price Vattenfall had paid for it. This, as well as the fact that Vattenfall made a major economic loss that year, made the opposition demand inquiries into the deal.
The government initially had a calmed gathered response to this saying that it was too early to assess the long-term investment made into Nuon and the European energy market and that the price at the time of the purchase had been in line with the estimated value of the company.
This was until a report showed that the Swedish government had been warned by management consultants that the deal would add little profit to the state and risk consuming taxpayer-money.
Things really hit the fan as former Minister of Enterprise, Maud Olofsson, refused to appear at a hearing by Parliament’s Constitutional Affairs Committee to attest to what actually happened during the purchase.  This refusal naturally shocked and enraged the media as well as the opposition, and threw a whole new dubious shadow on the whole deal.

Yesterday the Minister of Finance, Anders Borg, was questioned by the Constitutional Affairs Committee and took the opportunity to use Olofsson’s refusal to appear, and throw her under the bus, claiming Olofsson had acted alone when approving the company board’s decision to purchase Nuon not informing the rest of the cabinet until the deal was already sealed, claims that was backed up by the Prime Minister as he appeared in front of the Committee today. The fact that both these Ministers were ignorant of what was happening doesn’t add up very well with previous statements made by the government and the fact that even the opposition had been informed about the deal before it was sealed, so yeah.   

EDIT: So while I was writing this,  it has also been revealed that there was an official memo sent to the Ministry of Finance from the Ministry of Enterprise and Energy detailing the deal two weeks before Vattenfall's offer on Nuon was made, making it even more inconceivable that neither Borg nor Reinfeldt had any idea about the deal before it was made.     

2. It is the return of Feminist Initiative

Minor party Feminist Initiative has had a surge in support recently. New members are flooding to the party that has in the last month recorded poll results between 1,5-2,0%, more than double of the party’s results in the ’10 election. This is likely the result of a vivid debate on women’s issues that got started earlier this year due to a number of criticized freeing court cases on rape and has led to a great exposure of gender inequality in the Swedish media. The question now is if the party will be able to sail the good winds all the way to Parliament in September or if they’ll be drowned out during the campaign in the summer and when the established left-wing parties start to attack them with “Don’t-waste-your-vote” rhetoric.           
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: April 17, 2014, 06:07:07 pm
http://www.thelocal.se/20140417/pm-pleads-ignorance-of-bad-vattenfall-bid-on-nuon

So either former Enterprise Minister and Centre Party leader Maud Olofsson is lying about informing Reinfeldt about the Nuon deal or Reinfeldt is lying about not being informed about the most expensive deal ever made by a state owned corporation. Either way one of these individuals have been behaving incredibly incompetently.


Yeah... it's pretty obvious which one is lying, but I guess it's better to throw an ex-minister under the bus than two current ones. Roll Eyes

Also since none of the non-Swedish posters here will have any idea what we're actually talking about I'll have to make a post explaining this affair:
 
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: April 16, 2014, 03:44:44 pm
My results:

Group

53% - ALDE
51% - EFD
49% -ECR
40% - S&D
40% - GUE-NGL
38% - EPP
33% - Greens/EFA

(Just comes to prove what I've always known, the EP is mostly pure $hit.

Top candidates:

87% - Anna Zemanova (ALDE) Slovakia
78% - Anna Rosbach (ECR) Denmark
76% - Sara Skyttedal (EPP) Sweden
73% - Tomas Baranovas (ALDE) Lithuania
73% - Janusz Wojciechowski (ECR) Poland

EDIT: I find it amusing that Tender almost agrees as much with the EPP as I do. Tongue
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: European Court of Justice overturns data retention directive on: April 08, 2014, 04:30:13 am
News that made my day! Cheesy
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: March 26, 2014, 07:26:34 am
Based on all the gay people I know, Torie is correct in that the rules are different in the gay world. That isn't to say that there aren't monogamous gay couples, just like there are many non-monogamous straight couples, but the norms are markedly different. I base this not only on the gay people I know but from what they told me of the dating scene, etc.

Anecdotal evidence, really Gustaf? Tongue
Maybe the reason is because we monogamous gays don't hang out at Grindr.
My expeirience in the field is that a large majority of open and out gays want a stable monogamous relationship just as much as the next guy.

Anyway, straight or gay, as long as both parts are ok with it, there's no reason to judge people for not being monogamous. If you don't hurt anyone you should of course do what makes you happy. 



You have a very nice smile. Smiley
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Russian Annexation of Crimea on: March 19, 2014, 08:10:08 pm
Speaking of which, when did Sweden allow openly gay soldiers?

In 1976
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Comedy Goldmine on: March 19, 2014, 07:59:34 pm
She needs to not run in 2016, getting too old and needs to enjoy life.  Wait, Democrats said the same thing about McCain in 2008.

As Democrats, we feel the need to tell John McCain and everyone else how to live their lives. As a libertarian, you should stay out of Hillary Clinton's business.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2014: All hail Matteo il Magnifico! on: March 19, 2014, 06:12:28 pm
It's certainly deeply flawed and criticizable on many different respects, but you can't say it's undemocratic, unless you think British FPP is even undemocratic.

I do think FPTP is undemocratic.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: March 19, 2014, 05:47:55 pm
Fabius is the most popular? ROFL

Well, foreign affairs is a blessed office. Who dislike a foreign affairs minister?

Well...
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Russian Annexation of Crimea on: March 19, 2014, 05:40:33 pm
That's such a stock example, and not even true, seeing as we were attacked and wouldn't have interfered otherwise.

But hypothetically, if we hadn't been attacked at all by anyone, would you support military intervention to help the British and the French?
I'll answer your question with a question-would you enlist and fight the fight? Would you storm on to the beach to be greeted by a haze of machine gun fire for France and England?

I'm blind and gay and far too skinny to fight a war, but I suppose I'd be willing to fight the good fight in retrospect.

You're blind?

I'm not sure what being gay has to with not being able to fight in a war though. I've met plenty of able soldiers who're gay. 
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2014: All hail Matteo il Magnifico! on: March 19, 2014, 04:41:42 pm
I want Italy to get out of the mess it is in right now, and the only way for this to happen is to have a strong, stable left-wing government. It might not be morally right to craft an electoral system based on this need, but it is the only possibility to avoid total disaster. I'm sincerely sorry this is the way thing are, but it is.

Yeah but rigging the system in an undemocratic manner isn't really going to solve the problem.
This system might as well create another Berlosconi undeserved majority, and even if it resulted in the out-come you wish for, no PD-lead government with its current establishment is going to be that stable left-wing government that brings Italy out of its crisis.

As AL says, the only real way to solve the fact that a left-wing alternative can't reach 50%, is for the left to reform itself into a credible political force, not bend the rules so they can rule with-out popular support.   
 
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: March 15, 2014, 01:36:45 pm
So to sum up this very long discussion, a centre-right voter from Stockholm Business School doesn't understand why the government is unpopular and a centre-left voter from a place that votes 20 percentage points more left than the country as a whole doesn't think there's anything people find controversial about the Swedish left's policy position... C'mon really. ;P


Anyway I also expect the government to recover somewhat (I would be shocked if they didn't get above 40% in the end) but how much they recover is really a question on wether the government will keep coming with proposal that piss people off (student-grants) and on wether the opposition will go into clown mode this time as well with subway butlers, breast pumps, and banning construction off new malls.     

Also it's not for certain that C and Kd will recover enough even if the Alliance as a whole does so.


 
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