Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 06, 2015, 02:11:26 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 152
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: July 05, 2015, 06:29:33 pm
There's so much crying, hyperbole and wishful-thinking from both sides in this thread which sorts of clouds the discussion of what the consequences of this will actually be.

Some people, just like in January, seem to have the silly idea that this all of a sudden will change the position of the Troika, or that Renzi, or good gracious Hollande for that matter, will swoop in and stand up to the "German tyrants" (or whatever some people in this thread would call them) just because they have finally heard the Greek voices loud and clear. Everybody knew that the Greeks don't like austerity measures before, in that regard, nothing has changed. The bottom line is still where it was a week ago. So everybody who now expects a cushy deal for Greece are self-delusional.

Now I wouldn't say this must mean the end for Greek participation in the Euro, as I could still imagine a potential deal which would satisfy and save the face of both sides... but it probably will be the end. Everybody who has read between the lines knows that the real question being asked in this referendum, and the reason Tsipras felt the need of it, is to have a mandate to leave the monetary part of the union if he couldn't get a favourable deal enough.

So Greece will probably be forced to leave the Euro. Which I think will be best for the Greek people in the long run. Sure, there will be economic chaos and turmoil which will hurt like hell, and many Greeks will unfortunately get squeezed by it and suffer, but it gives Greece the chance to get in control of their own monetary policy once more, which is necessary if there is ever to be a true recovery. You see, as much as I disagree with the so-called anti-austerity folk I agree with them on one thing, it is not possible for Greece to exit this crisis if the decisions are taken above their heads by other people. They themselves must be the people behind the steering wheel, not the Troika. But for that to happen they must leave the Euro behind.

So at the end of the day, I think what this vote actually means, is a nail in the coffin of the deadly idea of European federalism. And as such, I think it's the best result for all of Europe.       
 

     
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Russia publically wonders if it legally still owns Baltics on: July 01, 2015, 09:06:32 am
Public opinion in Germany and France might not favour military action against Russia at the moment, but it most certainly will if Russia invades NATO and European Union territory. 
3  General Politics / Economics / Re: Greece to Leave the Euro Zone on: June 29, 2015, 08:01:41 am
Why does leaving the Eurozone have any connection with Greece in the EU? There are plenty of other EU nations not on the Euro.

Because, if I understand things correctly, the only legal mechanism for a Eurozone member to leave the Eurozone is to leave the EU altogether.


There is no mechanism to leave the EU as a whole either, so it's a correct but rather moot point.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 27, 2015, 07:18:07 am
Things turned out as I expected.

Well played by DPP, I think, they got to look responsible and avoided getting responsibility at the same time.

Credit where credit is due. I should never have doubted you.

Still, i really think Lökke allowed them to win to easy. If I were in his clothes I would have returned tio the Queen and told her that I wasn't able to form a stable alternative and suggeste her to appoint Thulesen Dahl as royal researcher. 
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 23, 2015, 02:15:46 am
It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.

We obviously disagree on this one. ^^ I still say DPP will go into government, giving Venstre a more centre-right economic policy and gaining concessions on Europe.

We will see who are right in the coming days. Wink
If it turns out I'm right I'd just want to point out I predicted it already in January.


How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 22, 2015, 02:46:58 am
It is between a Liberal minority government and a Liberal-DPP coalition. The first option is the logical - unless Thulesen-Dahl has lost his cool. I was very surprised DPP even brought up getting into government in the first place.

Thulesen-Dahl has said that the party should be were it will be able to have the greatest influence, has he not? Let's face it, on immigration DPP will hold the sway no matter if they're in or out of this government, however on other areas, most notebly the European Union, it is entierly possible, not to say likely, that a pure Venstre government would run a very pro-European policy with support from across the aisle. If DPP is in the government however they can make sure that Denmark is a close ally to Cameron in the re-negotiations of the EU-terms, and thereby curb intra-EU migration.

On the same time, Lars Lökke has all the reason to want the DPP inside his government. I think your analysis too often assume that Lökke is some docile idiot, and not the sharp ruthless and mean politician he actually is. With a strong coalition partner in the government he will have someone to share the blame with, and since voters always finds a reason to be cross with the government, it is most important as a party to not stand alone in government, especially when your party is already weak.       

In a coalition Lökke would also be able to trade concessions from Venstre on Europe for a more centre-right economic policy, which would please the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives. Everybody wins, and the blue bloc gets the most stable government they could out of this unstable election result.

That is why the Venstre-DPP coalition is actually the most logical solution.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 04:28:34 pm
I believe it'll be either VO, or VOI. But it really can end up anyway I think.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 03:21:37 pm
When pressured, Thulesen Dahl doesn't want to entirely rule out participating in government either. He is simply saying that the party will place itself where they'll get the most political influence... which could mean everything.   
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 02:58:05 pm
DR has been interviewing DPP politicians, and they are not entirely closing the door on government... Pia Kjearsgaard said we should all wait out the final results before venturing into that sort of speculation.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 02:40:44 pm
So...is there any chance whatsoever of the DPP taking over the reins?

Is it likely? No, even with this result it is very unlikely...

   ...but there is a small (very small) possibility.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 02:32:34 pm
There is precedent for a clobbered Venstre to form government, but that government lasted barely a year - Poul Hartling from Dec 73 to Jan 75.

That is an entirely meaningless precedent. Politically, 1973 might as well have been an entirely different era. If you go back far enough you can find precedent for everything.

The point is that if Venstre go into government on their own with DPP being allowed to wave the populist flag on the sideline, taking no responsibility, in four years time Venstre will be annihilated, while DPP will continue to grow. Now DPP know this, which is why they are uneasy to enter into government, but what what everyone seems to assume for some reason, is that Venstre doesn't know this, which is silly.

 
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 02:16:45 pm
The Danish posters will say it is impossible that DPP will even be in the government, but let's be honest... It's not reasonable for the third largest party, that has just gotten clobbered to form government on their own. It would be suicide for Venstre to alone bear the burden of government, and LLR should insist to have DPP in the cabinet.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 01:16:03 pm
Assuming Helle prevails tonight, how likely is she to ditch Radikale from the government with a result like this?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 01:04:21 pm
Would you stop arguing about class!

Exit poll says Blue with smallest possible margin.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 11:42:34 am
Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

No.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 18, 2015, 10:50:40 am
Live streams for the two main channels. I obviously can't check whether they work outside Denmark.

DR: http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

TV2: http://play.tv2.dk/live/tv-2-news/#tv-2-news?icid=TV%202%20PLAY:big



It's working in East Denmark. Wink
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 15, 2015, 02:19:14 am
As much as you would hate it you might fit the Christian Democrats best..

Don't be silly, if I had a vote I wouldn't waste it on a party that won't even break 1% Wink

Hmm, I didn't know LA is sort of eurosceptic. How Eurosceptic are they exactly? What their opinion on the retsforbeholdet for example?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 08, 2015, 07:08:57 am
I'm really uncertain who I'd vote for in this election out of Radikale, Konservative, and Liberal Alliance.

Radikale is the party that is closest to me, but I do really dislike Thoring-Schmidt's government. On the other hand, the option isn't much better... 
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Britain Considering a Written Constitution After 800 Years on: June 08, 2015, 06:06:34 am
It's a non-issue. The UK has a well functioning political system, codifying their constitution won't change that for neither the worse or the better. Anyway it's not even true that Britain hasn't faced this sort of fundamental challenges before. Have they ever heard of Irish independence, the fall of the Empire? 
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of the coming SPÖ-FPÖ coalition ... on: June 04, 2015, 09:58:57 am
If the SPÖ maneuvers intelligently and doesn't lose its soul over the immigration issue, it might be a good thing, especially as it will probably backfire on the FPÖ.

Incredibly enough, I agree 100% with Antonio.
Let's not forget that when FPÖ participated in the national government last time, they lost more than half of their supporters.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Sepp Blatter resigns as FIFA President on: June 03, 2015, 08:03:49 pm
Excellent! Cheesy Proves there is still some justice in the world.

It's a shame the entire FIFA organisation is rotten to the core when it comes to corruption, it won't make a difference in the long run. Though hopefully this will scare the people who take over to behave for a few years at least.

And I will cross my fingers that this means Qatar will have the World Cup taken from them and rewarded to a serious country. 


He was the president of everybody! Sad

By "everybody" you mean corrupt scumbag politicians I presume. Wink
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German users - why did the FDP collapse in 2013? on: May 29, 2015, 05:52:20 am
As per usual, Hashemite's excellent blog about international elections is the best place to go for answers to this type of questions:

Quote
A black-yellow coalition was seen as being more in touch with Merkel’s preferences and easier to manage. The coalition turned out to be a disaster for the FDP, which was widely seen as ineffective and incompetent as governing partners and their image as an exclusive club for special interests and high earners was reinforced by certain boneheaded moves by FDP leaders. Merkel, the master politician, steamrolled the FDP.

The FDP’s main campaign promise in 2009 had been to lower taxes. Despite having been in government for four years, it was unable to do so. In fact, while in government, the FDP was even forced to agree to things such as raising the public health insurance premiums by 0.5% after having run a 2009 campaign on the slogan “more net from gross [income]”.

The FDP’s decline began in January 2010 with the “hotel affair”, when it was revealed that the FDP received a huge €1.1 million donation from August Baron von Finck, who owns the Mövenpick hotel group; his company later benefited from a major reduction in the VAT on hotel bills, one of the black-yellow government’s first decisions. The “hotel affair” reinforced widely-held stereotypes of the FDP as an exclusive party for special interests and lobbyists. On the same line, the FDP (which held the health ministry) was also criticized by the red-greens for failing to liberalize the pharmacy sector (which would reduce the costs of pharmaceutical distribution), given that self-employed pharmacists are a solidly FDP electorate.

Smiley
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 28, 2015, 08:03:01 pm
The Tory bench for the mayoral election does really seem awfully weak. Labour should be favoured simply for that reason. Is there anyone that the Conservatives could recruit who could rival Sadiq Kahn, and David Lammy in rank?
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: May 26, 2015, 08:14:29 am

I expect Hifly to be here any second, foaming around the mouth, and declaring that this is a betrayal and  the reason Labour parties don't win any longer.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your 5 favorite counties in your state on: May 26, 2015, 05:17:03 am
Since we have counties too.

Likewise:

Skåne/Scania (Home)
Halland
Gotland
Västra Götaland
Östergötland


Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 152


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines