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May 25, 2016, 01:50:45 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 12:54:09 pm
What is the theory or explanation for why a VdeB does so much better with postal ballots?

I can't speak to Austria in particular, but postal ballots in general are usually dominated by "vulnerable" sections of society. i.e. people who work long, strange hours, ailing people, immigrants, disabled people, ect. These are the people who can't get to the polls to vote on election day and these types of demographics tend to vote for the more left-wing candidate.

Maybe in America. In Europe they tend to be well-off citizens living abroad, people with high education, and the sort off people who think they're too important to actually go and que at the polling-place at election day. In Sweden for example the Moderates and the Greens are the primary beneficiaries of postal ballots while the Social Democrats tend to fare dreadfully in them. 
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 10:11:19 am
Tender is there an official website where it's possible to follow results as they come in?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 09:55:31 am
Btw Tender, voting hours in Austria really suck. In what civilized democracy does polls close at 5 pm? Even 6 pm as it is in Germany is ridiculous. Polls should be open from 8 am to 8 pm should be as a minimum. 
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 09:51:05 am
Yes it works. Thank goodness Austrian politicians don't care about copyright laws.

During British general elections the BBC election coverage stream can actually be watched from abroad so it seams public networks in general aren't that squeamish about it when it comes to election coverage.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Presidential Election (RUNOFF) - Official Prediction Thread on: May 18, 2016, 02:26:15 pm
Turn-out will be at least as high as the last round and Hofer will win by a bigger marginal than people in general expects.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 13, 2016, 03:54:26 am
Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission) endorses VdB.

That's it, RIP Van der Bellen! Juncker gives his endorsement kiss of death. All hail president Hofer.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Austrian Chancellor Faymann (Social Dem) resigns on: May 09, 2016, 01:17:22 pm
Good to see him gone.

The most likely successors for Faymann are the CEO of the Austrian Railway, Christian Kern and media manager Gerhard Zeiler. Kern is more likely though.

How come those two are the front runners and not some other minister or state governor?
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Swedish Green Party Crisis on: May 09, 2016, 06:37:08 am
Åsa Romson, Sweden's Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Environment, and one of two co-leaders of the Swedish Green Party will gets ousted from her position in top politics in the coming days as the party's nominating committee has not nominated her for re-election at the party's congress next weekend.



The Green party has been struggling recently after a series of rough compromises and broken promises on immigration, defense and environmental policy as well as a number of minor scandals. Romson will be the second Green minister to resign in the last month. Housing Minister Mehmet Kaplan also had to resign after a scandal that has left many asking whether the Greens have been infiltrated by extremist Islam.

Romson, who holds a PhD in Environmental Law, has not herself been very involved in the latest scandals but has previously been highly critisised for a number of gaffes and having painted her boat with toxic colour and is the least popular party leader according to polls.

Former MEP and Minister for Foreign Aid, Isabella Lövin, has been suggested to replace her. The other leader of the party, Minister of Education, Gustav Fridolin so far appears to be safe in his position but it's not entirely out of the question that he might be challenged and defeated at the party congress later this week. 

You can read more here.

9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 02, 2016, 04:10:19 pm
   One would think that Griss would have made a strong runoff candidate, as she had a centrist profile and thus could win support from the center and left against Hofer.

Griss would probably had a chance to defeat Hofer as she appears to be an acceptable person to all camps of Austrian voters. Van der Bellen on the other hand is tied to impopular pro-immigration policies that are very off with the current mood in all European electorates which makes it very hard for me to even see him coming close to defeating Hofer.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: April 29, 2016, 02:27:57 pm
Let's hope that the Swedish Green Party doesn't get 4% the next election.

It's not that unlikely that they actually fall below it at this point. This is far from the Greens first fock up the last year. Anyway, the two co-leaders of the party is now at risk of being ousted from their positions at the party's national congress in two weeks because of the party's complete collapse.   
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Whitehouse.gov receiving petition to redo Arizona vote. on: March 24, 2016, 03:37:23 am
Can we please blame those actually responsible? That being the Arizona GOP.

Well obviously, since Hillary and the Arizona GOP are in the same crony establishment it's really her fault by proxy... obviously.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: JEB! endorses CRUZ! on: March 23, 2016, 09:46:25 am

I knew, in the end, that the race would come down to the Establishment having to deal with Cruz (Satan Lite) vs. Trump (The Great Satan). 

Still think they're making the wrong choice. It's like picking Emperor Palpatine over Jabba the Hut. The later might be a grotesque, sexist, slug, but it's the former that can electrify you to death with the force while being perfectly polite and proper while doing it. 
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread on: March 22, 2016, 03:08:26 pm
Do anyone think the terror attacks in Belgium will push people to Trump in todays races? "Ban the Muslims from entering" would seem to be a much more tempting offer to the masses a day such as this.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: AZ-Merrill Poll: Trump up 12, Clinton up 26 on: March 16, 2016, 05:43:39 pm
Trump only being at 31%  is actually a surprisingly weak result for him. I'd have expected him in the 40's at least. I'd really hate to agree with Vosem on anything related to Trump's victory chances, but if anti-trump vote start coalescing more towards a single candidate as election day gets closer (which it has done in several states) 31% is a really low starting point for Trump.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RNC member: The party will decide the nominee, not the voters on: March 16, 2016, 05:30:14 pm
The key here is whether this guy is speaking for himself, or if this is a broad sentiment among RNC members. If it's the latter, Trump is in deeper trouble than people think.

Actually I'd be the GOP that would be in deeper trouble than people think if that happens. No way is Trump going to lay down and just accept having the victory snatched from his tiny hands. He'd run a third-party/write-in campaign drawing away all his cheated supporters from the Republican nominee, and the Republican establishment cheating the voters out of their most popular choice would not only kill every chance of carrying Congress this year but also plant a seed of hate and distrust between the party and their grassroots that wouldn't heal for a generation.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Bernie Sanders be gracious in defeat? on: March 16, 2016, 04:39:46 pm
Sanders will be very gracious when he eventually drops-out, he's a very classy man.

A very large portion of his supporters though... not so much.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Supreme Court Short List Down to 5 on: March 10, 2016, 04:57:11 am
So in other words, no one who will be approved.

Obama could nominate Ted Cruz and the GOP Senate still wouldn't approve him.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I see Oregon being a lean R for Trump on: March 08, 2016, 03:41:07 pm
Cool story bro.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Puerto Rico Primary results thread (polls close @2pm ET?) on: March 06, 2016, 01:39:33 pm
Rubio must win. If Rubio can't win here, he should obviously drop out, go home, and move back in with mommy because there'd literally be a zero chance of a political future for him. Tongue
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mexico will under no circumstances pay for Trump's wall on: March 04, 2016, 06:15:49 am
If TRUMP is elected president, I would imagine Mexico would be more than happy to pay for a wall to protect themselves from the North American crazies. Wink
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanderistas pissed at Warren for not endorsing. on: March 04, 2016, 06:01:23 am
I've been a supporter of Sanders since long before his presidential run. It's kind of sad how he's developed a following from such annoying, unpleasant people.

Indeed, a good man like Sanders doesn't deserve the vicious cult that a large part of his followers contain.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Emperor(Trump) strikes back. on: March 03, 2016, 03:50:37 pm
I'm tired of Trump winning already.
Aren't we all.

No one is probably more tired of it than the Republican establishment though. Wink
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I still support Sanders. on: March 03, 2016, 03:21:07 am
Either Cenk is a lot dumber than I thought, or he's being deliberately obtuse for the sake of ratings. 

I've stopped listening to TYT when it comes to the Democratic primary. They're all so deep into their hackery for Sanders that they've surrendered all sense of objectivity and actual analys of the race in favour of blatant propaganda for their candidate.

They're still excellent when it comes to Republican race where I feel that Cenk was one of few pundits who really understands what is going on.

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: LA: Magellan Strategies - Trump-41 Cruz-21, Clinton-61 Sanders-14 on: March 03, 2016, 02:42:15 am
"Progressive" Canadian is one step from accusing "those damn niggas" for stealing the nomination from Sanders.

It's not racist if those black people don't know their own good while Progressive Canadian obviously does know that Sanders would be best for them.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 08:49:58 pm
MSNBC has called Virginia too.
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