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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 31, 2015, 03:03:08 am
LPC - 63%
CPC - 61%
NDP - 57%
GPC - 46%

I'm the ultimate Canadian swing-voter. Tongue

Surprised you got higher CPC than NDP actually, I would expect Scandinavian centre-right types to get the opposite result.

The Canadian Conservatives aren't crazy, like the Republicans or the Australian Liberals. Being ever so slightly closer to them than a Social Democratic Party based on unionism isn't surprising to me at all.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 31, 2015, 02:44:08 am
LPC - 63%
CPC - 61%
NDP - 57%
GPC - 46%

I'm the ultimate Canadian swing-voter. Tongue
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 31, 2015, 01:46:09 am
The answer is as Gustaf say, because Stockholm are rich, but there's a more interesting structural explanation. In most European countries, rural areas was primarily agricultural areas, which mean they was home to mostly farmers. While cities was home to the growing industries, which resulted in a large working class. Sweden on the other hand developed much of their early industry in rural areas, from early copper mining, glass making, pine tar production, iron mining etc, so they developed a rural working class. At the same time any farmers was in many areas extremely poor and often worked as workers in the industry too, so these people had interest in socialist policies. The cities on the other hand was too large extent home to the capitalist class, those who serviced them and richer skilled workers. It's also why when we look at Scania which share similar structures to Denmark, we see much more similar voting pattern to Denmark.

This is unusual in European context, but we spots around Europe which share similar structures, like the rural areas in Westphalia which belong to Prussia before 1789, which was also home to rural industries.


^So much this^

As Ingemann says, its not as easy as cities in Sweden are rich, thus centre-right, the country side is poor, thus centre-left. Throughout southern Sweden the pattern is the same in as in the rest of Europe, especially Denmark. In Scania for example, Malmö has always been the deep red Social Democratic bastion of the region, while the agriculturally dominated countryside has historically been steadily right-wing. Stockholm has never been an industrial city, it's always been, and remains a city for civil servants, capitalists, and other traders. Gothenburg and Malmö on the other hand is a whole different story. 

The real key to why a certain area in Sweden votes the way it does is:

Rural agricultural = Centre-right
Rural industrial = Centre-left

Urban white-collar: Centre-right
Urban industrial: Centre-left.

4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 26, 2015, 01:42:34 am
Hmmm. Was the SD surge a temporary thing connected to a special event/news story? Or do you think this is an outlier?

The YouGov poll was taken right around the IKEA murder, which probably bloated their numbers significantly in that particular poll. Still this result in Novus, is an increase from SD's last result in Novus, so the party is still clearly growing in all polls.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ? on: August 25, 2015, 12:02:54 pm
Oh yay another thread about immigration. Because we don't have enough of those.

It seems these days it is the only political topic people want to discuss.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ? on: August 25, 2015, 03:48:52 am
But the trend for the SPÖ is worrying ...

Let them crash and burn!

The SPÖ in the city has earned their defeat, and FPÖ ending up the largest party will still result in a coalition that doesn't include them.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 25, 2015, 01:18:34 am
A new poll from Novus arrived today:

V: 7,3%
S: 25,1%
Mp: 6,7%

C: 6,7%
Fp: 5,2%
Kd: 3,3%
M: 23,3%

SD: 19,4%

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK - Alternate Coloring on: August 24, 2015, 04:57:52 am
Does anyone have the map for 1945? It's one of the few I've never seen anywhere on this forum.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/88/UK_Election_1945_Map.png
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 21, 2015, 09:30:16 am
Randomly jumping in here with two questions:

1.) Why is Stockholm a stronghold of the center-right?


2.) When I was visiting Vadstena, Odeshog, and Urnatur in May, I met two local green politicians. How strong is the Green Party in Sweden? Is it common for them to be in rural areas and small towns?

Also, we had a talk with the man who owns the treehouse hotel at Urnatur (he's one of the politicians we met) and told us he resented many Greens from the city because they believe that people should all live in cities, while he advocates that people live in the country. How strong is this divide in the Swedish Green Party?


Also, why the f*** do you people not export Kina Wafers??? They are now my favorite chocolate and they're not available in the U.S.

That is just wrong on so many levels.

1. Apart from recently with the SD, Swedish politics has a strong consensus on social issues and is divided mostly alongside economic lines. City people are rich. Imagine if New York was voting solely on economics and rural Kentucky was doing the same.

2. The Green party mostly has strength in cities and university areas but they exist elsewhere too. A former party leader made them biggest party in rural northern Kalix. Tongue The Green party generally does badly in rural areas for the reason you cited so I wouldn't call it a strong divide within the party.

The Kina wafers are under fire for racism, I believe, so that may not help. Wink

I get what you're saying but New York isn't the best example since it's actually about 60% poor minorities and even among the Whites, a good chunk are either poor White ethnics living way out in the middle of nowhere in far west Brooklyn or hipsters making $10 an hour but getting by only because they don't have kids.

Gustaf is of course talking about Manhattan, which to us foreigners really is the only "real" part of New York. Wink
10  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Do you care about the form of a government, or only its results? on: August 21, 2015, 02:00:00 am
Oh great, here come the edgy "benevolent dictatorship" fanboys again. Roll Eyes

But what if the dictator was a really nice person??!!
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 19, 2015, 04:23:34 pm
According to rumor, Metro Sweden will present a YouGov poll in tomorrow's newspaper which has the Sweden Democrats as the largest party nationally.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 13, 2015, 01:10:24 pm
But then of course, the Norwegians also go here to buy cheap candy.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 13, 2015, 01:08:28 pm
There is a saying that the Norwegians go to Sweden for cheap beer, the Swedes go to Germany, and the Germans go to the Czech Republic.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 13, 2015, 12:06:18 pm
I'm curious: what should such a middle ground look like, then, according to you? Because from a "mainstream Swedish" perspective every middle ground option would, by now, look like a compromise to SD, or like "SD light policy".

I'm not sure, and if I was it would be too hard to sum it up in a short readable forum post. Tongue But since all this recent fuss has been about beggers I'll use that as an example. SD's policy is that we should ban begging, and the Moderates recently proposed that we should ban organised begging, not all begging just organised begging. That to me is SD policy light. A more reasonable middle-ground would be to say that: yes, we admit that the begging is a problem, but these are very poor desperate people who will not stop begging because we ban it because they have no other choice. Instead we need to put pressure on and help the Romanian government to address the poverty at home, while at the same time cracking down at the traffickers that bring the beggars here. Naturally lots of people won't be happy at such a position either, but that is sort of besides the point.         

Quote
I didn't have the idea that if you scratch the surface, anti-Semitism has a place in SD (they have a Jewish MP as well, I read), but if you say so, then it doesn't surprise me that much, because it has a place in Swedish nationalism as well. I did find the SDU video frightening. On the other hand, the misquoting of Björn Söder to make him look like an anti-Semite was a pathetic joke, I think.

Yes, SD has two Jewish MP:s if I'm not mistaken (which for Sweden is a lot) and the party's official line is pro-Israel, however when you move beyond the leadership you get a whole different picture. I don't know how much you've read about the struggle between SD and its youth-wing. The falling out between them started when the youth leadership wasn't willing to support the main party's pro-Israel stances for unclear reasons... A recently defected party member and local big-shot for the party also revealed after leaving that at least one MP, Anna Hagwall, subscribe to Jewish conspiracy theories. The defector also revealed that although he was still supportive of SD's official policies, the white-supremacy, homophobic, and anti-Semitic discussion that was happening behind closed doors was too much for him to stand. 

As for Björn Söder he is an intolerant prick, however clearly not in the anti-Semitic camp what ever quoting out of context people do.

I also have some totally unrelated questions: recently, I read about Systembolaget. How popular is this among Swedish voters? Are there any polls about this? And how do you, Swedish posters, think about it?

I want to abolish it! But then I'm more of a fan of the Dutch liberal tradition. Tongue

I'm in the minority though. It has quite large popular support. Which of course is silly since all Swedes that can, import cheap alcohol from Germany with-out any qualms. However Systemet is a rigid part of "Swedish exceptionalism" and culture. Our love and hate relationship with the place is one of few forms of accepted nationalism we have.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 13, 2015, 06:56:46 am
Is there any cooperation on the local level, or are the SD's persona non gratae even at the municipal level?

Do you mean officially or in practice? All the other seven parties forbid their local branches from cooperating with SD, and SD takes part in no official coalition or organised budget cooperation... in practice it's a bit more complex. For example in the southern city of Landskrona, SD could really be seen as the unofficial partner for the Liberal-Moderate-Green minority coalition that runs the city. They've been in power since 2006 and for the entire time relied on SD support to pass their budget and core policies, and mayor Torkil Strandberg has openly admitted that SD has influence on city policy and that he necessarily doesn't see anything wrong with that, and that's just the most obvious example.   
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 13, 2015, 06:44:51 am
Wow, great discussion guys. I think several of you are delving into some of the most crucial questions about the political situation in regards to the Sweden Democrats and how different parties' treatment are affecting popular opinion. As I personally see it, the Sweden Democrats can in large part thank their current strong position to two factors:

The first factor is that there has been no middle-ground in the immigration debate in Sweden since 2010, which is a direct result of the other parties trying to distance themselves from SD as much as possible. Before that both the Moderates and the Social Democrats had a much more nuanced view on immigration, and even the People's Party had a few notable positions, such as demanding passing a Swedish language test in order to gain Swedish citizenship. Leading up to the 2010 election with SD steadily gaining in polls, these parties abandoned all such middle-ground positions  in order distance themselves from the Sweden Democrats. Every policy that could in some way be seen as similar to SD's policy became toxic and was accused of "fishing in dirty water". This was amplified to an even greater extent, when after the election, in order to show how non-dependent the Alliance government was of SD, they passed immigration reform with the Greens that basically copied the Green policy right of the bat, which really killed all middle-ground, as it left us with either the Greens' immigration policy or the Sweden Democrats'.

The second factor is that the media, cultural elite, and the anti-racist SJW have created a "you're either against us, or with us" mentality were anyone who has not agreed 100% with the politically correct view of the day, not just when it comes to immigration but to women's rights, lgbt-rights, and even some extent economic issues, have been denounced as the great other. If you create an atmosphere were you paint the picture that your only choices is between true-left hogwash and the Sweden Democrats, you will inevitably drive people to the other side. Combine this with the fact that these issues seem to be the only ones that matter in political debate in Sweden today. It's almost impossible to discuss any other issue, as both the Sweden Democrats, and the left paint this as the number one most important issue.

The question is how do we break these two factors, and how do we handle SD during the meantime? It's a question with no simple answers. Personally I think that we need to recreate the middle-ground, obviously. First by stopping to pretend that there are no problems with immigration. If you don't see the problems that the voters see, they are not going to trust you. Then we have to present better solutions to those problems. Simply copying a light version of SD's policy won't hold, both because it's morally wrong, but also because if your policy is just a weak copy of your opponent, the voters will prefer the original. Still the two options in Swedish politics can't be completely free immigration, or no immigration. 

I also think it's important to maintain the cordon sanitaire towards them. No matter what you think of their policies, the party is filled with crazy. The leadership is competent and do their best to keep up a clean facade, but you only need to scratch the surface before you start finding people who believe in Jewish conspiracies and what not.

So basically I agree with David: 

I support the view that the Swedish mainstream has made an unwise choice. Given the SD's past, there might have been legitimate concerns about incorporating them into a coalition (at least in 2010), but parties should have addressed people's concerns about immigration. These concerns aren't inherently racist and I think it's legitimate to question the status-quo on this issue, especially when all mainstream parties are taking the extreme position they're taking right now ("let 'em all in").

17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of this image from Tumblr on: August 12, 2015, 08:24:24 am
How can these kind of people say this and at the same time support such things as affirmative consent laws? Such inconsistency makes me even more ashamed to have a tumblr account than I already am.

People have Tumblr accounts for other reasons than watching porn and kittens?!
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: August 11, 2015, 03:42:08 pm
Well 2015 been's the first election year I've actually followed (General Elections are the only ones that count IMO) and it's going to be pretty crap if we have Labour getting crushed at the may election losing their Shadow Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, and then going on to elect someone who is going to be the worse leader since well ever. 

Tony Blair resigns and is replaced by:

Gordon Brown who is more to the left of Blair... who goes on to lose... who is then replaced by:

Ed Miliband who is more to the left of Brown... who goes on to lose... who is then replaced by:

Jeremy Corbyn who is more to the left of Miliband... who goes on to...

You can guess the rest I think Wink

After Jeremy Corbyn, Owen Jones will be elected leader. Tongue
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs Trump on: August 11, 2015, 02:16:05 pm
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: August 11, 2015, 01:57:09 pm
Two asylum seekers from Eritrea have been arrested for stabbing two people to death in an IKEA in Västerås. It seems that they didn't have a political motive. The police are investigating the details.

It's a terribly tragic event. The victims were a middle-aged woman and her son in his twenties. The police has so far only been able to release very limited information about their investigation. They've said that they haven't found any signs of a political motive so far, but they aren't ruling it out either. It's to early to know anything in other words. The lack of information has of course given birth to various rumors.

One of the suspected murderers are at the time being operated for wounds he himself received during the attack. The as of yet unconfirmed theory I've herd is that he was injured by the son who was trying to protect his mother.

The police is also taking security measures to protect the asylum centre were the two murderers were living, in order to prevent any violent acts of retaliation that might be directed at it. 
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: August 10, 2015, 04:54:28 pm
The first Utøya summer camp since the massacre was opened this week-end by AUF chairman Mani Hussain. NATO SG Jens Stoltenberg,  Gro Harlem Brundtland and AP leader Jonas Gahr Støre will be among the speakers.

http://www.norwaypost.no/index.php/news/latest-news/30985

Democracy prevails. Smiley
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: August 04, 2015, 04:12:11 pm
Seems to support the narrative that Burnham is slipping into third place. I still I can't decide whether I'd prefer him to Yvette.

Can you imagine Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper as prime minister?

Personally I can't with Burnham but I can just about see Yvette standing in front of the door of number 10 at the head of a minority Labour government.

Bah, no one could see Margret Thatcher as Prime Minister when she was elected leader either. The image of the leader is highly overrated as an explanation to electoral successes and losses. I don't say that it unimportant, or that it can't be a factor, but in the end Niel Kinnock didn't lose in '92 because Major looked more like a Prime Minister, he lost because the Tories succesfully convinced the public that Labour would hike their taxes, and the reason that Blair then defeated Major five years later had little to do with Blair being more ministerial than Kinnock, but more to do with a dire need for change, Torie sleeze, internal fighting among Conservatives about the EU, and the government losing trust in handeling the economy after black Wednesday.

The voters aren't as stupid as you make them out to be Chris. It's not all just about image.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: August 01, 2015, 08:29:57 am
Swedish SDA as well.

What is SDA? The Social Democrats is shortened either simply as S or SAP, SDA sounds like it would be a radical wing of the Sweden Democrats. Wink

Well, I have been writing too much about Iceland. Sveriges Socialdemokratiska Arbetareparti might as well be SDA though (SA I suppose SA is out of the question for historical reasons..). Shortening the Sweden Democrats to SD is always a bit confusing. SVD would sound more right wing, like the Swiss SVP.

S is never called Socialdemokratiska arbetarpartiet these days though, not even by their most pompous members. They're either referred to as Socialdemokraterna (formal) or Sossarna (informal). Even on the ballot, they're named Arbetarpartiet Socialdemokraterna, which I guess could give you ASD   

I guess we're sort of derailing this thread though. We should probably continue this discussion in the Swedish General Discussion. Wink



I can't believe we're being criticized for illogical and hard short forms from someone who lives in a country were they shorten Dansk Folkeparti to O. Wink
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: August 01, 2015, 07:47:22 am
Swedish SDA as well.

What is SDA? The Social Democrats is shortened either simply as S or SAP, SDA sounds like it would be a radical wing of the Sweden Democrats. Wink
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: July 27, 2015, 02:13:32 am
FI are GreenLeft.

The Alternative is D66.

Fi is more like the Party of the Animals, if were doing Dutch comparisons. 
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