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July 28, 2017, 02:04:13 pm
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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: July 27, 2017, 03:48:45 am
Lövfen will hold a press conference tomorrow at 10.00

And ... what did he say ?

It has been delayed. The press conference is suppose to start in a moment
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: July 26, 2017, 11:09:19 am
A question re: confidence motions: if the Riksdag expresses a lack of confidence in a specific minister would that in turn compel the entire Government to resign/call a snap election? Those are rather murky waters with the Westminster system, so I am wondering if it is more clear cut in Sweden.

In theory, if an individual minister loses a vote of no confidence, only they have to resign. If the Prime Minister loses a Vote of No Confidence, the entire government needs to resign.

In practice though the entire government would resign if an individual minister lost, which is why it has never been tried out in practice, because most minister's up and quit as soon as there is a realistic threat of a Vote of No Confidence to save the rest of the government.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: July 26, 2017, 10:42:35 am
So this scandal is about a private company that was managing Sweden's security data but it was revealed that the deal was terribly bad made, thus threatening the data of the swedish government and swedish citizens, right?

Pretty much, yes. Combined with the fact that the people handling the security data didn't even have the proper security clearance, which means the arrangement was highly illegal, and that it appears that the government might have known about the information but concealed it from the media and the opposition and not taken the correct steps to remedy the problem before it was discovered by the media.     
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / SWEDISH government might RESIGN later today on: July 26, 2017, 08:31:56 am
Rumours that the government will resign later today in response to the announcement that the right will vote no confidence for three of Löfven's cabinet ministers.

Prime minister Löfven calling an early election is also another thing that is being rumoured.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2017 on: June 21, 2017, 10:55:23 am
Vince Cable...why not just bring back Paddy Ashdown

He's not an MP

Also he probably shoked on his hat in 2015... RIP.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 08:24:08 pm
Angus Robertson losing might be the best result of this evening. He was a bloody annoying MP.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 06:58:38 pm
Any chance of a Grand Coalition like in Germany?

I think I asked this same question in 2015 when the exit polls showed a minority government with the large loss of seats for the Liberal Democrats.

I have trouble imagining Corbyn and May in the same governement. Grand Coalitions are a uniquely german/nordic things, I think.

What? Except for Finland, Grand coalitions are extremely rare in the Nordic countries.  
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 05:20:37 pm
Particularly as it would indicate that the polls were broadly accurate. Extrapolating from both those seats (error probably) would be a tiny swing from 2015.

Good to see that you couldn't quite stay away. Smiley
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 05:16:02 pm
The people in the BBC are trying to say that is isn't good for labour when they (I am repeating myself) were already told that labour would do better in REMAIN seats

Listen to what they say. They've said that Tories are doing better than the exit polls expected them to do in Newcastle and Sunderland, even taking LEAVE/REMAIN into account.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 04:50:16 pm
Sinn Fein source: no change to abstention policy. https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/872931498906832898

Who thought that was even a possibility to begin with?

The same sort of people who wondered whether coal miners in Britain voted mostly Conservative or Labour.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 04:38:29 pm
RUTH DAVIDSON FOR PRIME MINISTER!!!
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 04:16:57 pm
Senior Conservatives apparently not believing the exit poll at all...

Politicians never believe exit polls when they show results they don't like. Let's just hope for their sake that none of them promise to eat their hats on live television this time around.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 04:12:41 pm
Well, I'm going to be very tiered at work tomorrow, because this night will not end early.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread on: June 08, 2017, 01:50:15 pm
Beautiful map.

But what is that white area northwest of London ?

That's the Speaker's seat.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 12:40:21 am
Anyone think Houghton and Sunderland South will be the first constituency to be declared again this year?

Well the Sunderland South constituency has been the first to declare for every single GE in my lifetime, so it'd be quite a shocker if they didn't.

Of course, Sunderland as a whole was only second to declare in Great Britain during the EU referendum, so some other constituencies might try to beat them this year, but I doubt it. 
Is there any reason why the UK counts all the ballots for each riding at once at a 'Central Office' instead at the polling station. It could take hours for all the ballots to arrive before the counting even begins.
It normally takes around 1 hour, to count the ballots at the polling station, you can phone the results to Returning Officer,  which are fed the media, and have the media make projections on who won.
However, you will be missing have the Returning Officer announcing the results with the candidates.

In difference to most countries, it is not allowed to publish results by polling station in Britain. If  I remember correctly, it's a long-standing tradition dating back to when powerful land-owners and factory owners punished their workers if they discovered that their local area had not voted for their favoured candidate.   
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread on: June 06, 2017, 05:43:26 pm
New prediction since a lot have changed since my last one...


Conservatives - 44% - 349 seats (+19)
Labour - 35% - 223 seats (-9)
LibDem - 7% - 8 seats (+/-)
UKIP - 5% - 0 seats (-1)
SNP - 4% - 47 seats (-9)
Greens - 2% - 1 seat (+/-)
Plaid Cymru - <1% - 3 seats (+/-)
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: June 06, 2017, 04:49:57 pm
It's quite funny that Corbyn might actually beat Blair in 2005 in the popular vote and still lose to the Tories substantially. Even though I can't stand Corbyn and his ilk it really goes to show how dysfunctional FPTP is.   
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 30, 2017, 02:09:31 am
Does anyone else miss the days when discussion of say UK Elections on Atlas was erudite, informed and for the most part good natured? As it stands this thread is a disgrace; I keep meaning check back a few pages to see if I have replies to make but I'm not sure if I can be bothered.

I most certainly do.  International elections used to be the best of Atlas and you used to be able to learn a great deal about other countries' political culture, geography and core issues. Nowadays the general hackery from the US Presidential Elections forum has really started to spill over here as well.

Maybe we should create an invite only discussion group where you're only invited if you know where British coal miners stand politically and you don't just fling political dung in every direction you go.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 17, 2017, 04:35:10 pm
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85905/john-mcdonnell-polls-are-showing

John McDonnell (Shadow Chancellor): Polls are showing Labour is going to win the election

This is very problematic in terms of logic and math.  It is one thing to say the polls are wrong it is another to say polls which show at best LAB behind CON by 14% shows that LAB is going to win.

It's quite hard to know who's most separated from reality between him and Diane Abbott...
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Local Elections, 4th May 2017 on: May 04, 2017, 08:04:13 pm
Labour doing as badly as expected while UKIP is being completely wiped out is so very pleasing. I really should go to sleep but these results are just too pleasing to stop watching.  
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: May 02, 2017, 01:29:25 am
Poll of polls for APRILl - Svensk Väljaroppinion (EKOT)


Left (V): 7.8%
Social Democrats (S): 28.7%
Greens (Mp): 4.1%

S+V+Mp: 40.6%


Liberals (L): 5.5%
Centre Party (C): 12.9%
Moderates (M): 17.3%
Christian Democrats (Kd): 3.2%

M+C+L+Kd: 38,9%


Sweden Democrats: 17.6% (-0.2)
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread on: May 01, 2017, 03:35:29 pm
Conservatives - 42,4% - 377 seats (+47)
Labour - 27,5% - 186 seats (-46)
LibDem - 11,0% - 11 seats (+3)
UKIP - 7,9% - 0 seats (-1)
SNP - 4,3% - 52 seats (-4)
Green - 3,1% - 1 seat (NC)
Plaid Cymru - 0,6% - 4 seats (+1)
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: April 26, 2017, 02:46:54 am
New DN/Ipsos poll out today.
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/dnipsos-alliansvaljarna-foredrar-loof-som-statsminister/

Who would you rather have as Prime Minister....

...Stefan Löfven or Annie Lööf?

All voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 49%
Annie Lööf (C): 51%

[ANNIE LÖÖF LAUGHS MANIACALLY]

Anyway, I don't really think you can put too much blame on Kinberg-Batra personally for the Moderates currently awful polling numbers. I mean don't get me wrong, she obviously lacks charisma and has the whole "snobbish" problem going on but I seriously doubt any other Moderate politician would be doing better at the moment.

The problem, as I see it, is that M's turn to the right has alienated their centrist and progressive voters while their former voters on the right who has jumped ship to SD still don't trust them on immigration and feels as if the party isn't genuine in their support for more restrictive immigration policies.

The party could choose a more Conservative leader and win some SD voters but would alienate their centrist flank even more... or they could choose someone more Liberal and pro-immigration and keep bleeding support to SD. Either strategy would result in the same dismal or even worse support than now. 

If AKB's was to leave, I have a hard time seeing who could realistically replace her? Elmsäter-Svärd and Björling has left politics, Ask and Billström  are spent forces, Svantesson is too socially-conservative (especially on abortion), Hanif Bali is too young and too radical and so on.

The only three people I could see are Ulf Kristersson, Karin Enström or Peter Danielsson and I don't think either of those are likable or charismatic enough to do anything for the voters to save M's numbers.

Johan Forsell would of course also be an alternative. But it would be a shame to spoil the party's most promising future leader on an election that looks like it'll go terribly wrong for the party.     
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread on: April 23, 2017, 02:33:12 am
26% - Le Pen (FN)
23% - Macron (EM)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --
20% - Fillon (LR)
18% - Mélenchon (Communist)
  6% - Hamon (PS)

  7% - Others

25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Unpleasant Kuckdom general election 2017: your vote? on: April 20, 2017, 07:09:36 am
I'd vote for the LibDems in constituencies where they have an actual shot at winning or in ridiculously safe Labour seats where my vote wouldn't matter any way but otherwise the Tories to keep out crazy Corbyn and safe-keep a stable government. 

(In NI I'd vote for Alliance obviously, only sane choice)
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