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December 20, 2014, 12:57:01 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who Governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 19, 2014, 05:29:36 pm
Sweden’s two govt parties and Left Party ally would get 44.1% of votes if election held today vs 40.8% for four-party opposition in Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll.

Social Democrats, Green Party and Left Party backed by 44.1% vs 43.6% in Sept. 14 election; four-party opposition supported by 40.8% vs 39.4%

Social Democrats of PM Stefan Loefven backed by 32% vs 31% in election, Green Party by 6.7% vs 6.9%, Left Party by 5.4% vs 5.7%

Opposition Moderates backed by 26.3% vs 23.3%, Liberal Party by 5.6% vs 5.4%, Center Party by 5.1% vs 6.1%, Christian Democrats by 3.9% vs 4.6%

Sweden Democrats  backed by 12.5% vs 12.9%

Ipsos poll of 1,403 people was conducted from Dec. 8-15

Considering Ipsos last poll before the September election gave the centre-left 52,1%... I consider this very good news.  Wink
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Happy Holidays! vs Merry Christmas! on: December 19, 2014, 09:32:45 am
Where is the "Who cares, this debate is stupid" option?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election 2015 on: December 19, 2014, 08:10:04 am
Also a bit anonymous types; only Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen has personal charisma (though on a board where Göran Persson qualifies as charismatic I suppose  Helle T. and Thulesen could qualify as well Wink )

Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma. Wink
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who Governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 19, 2014, 06:56:52 am
Göran has a way of dominating the conversation completely without raising his voice, he has massive amounts of confidence bordering on arrogance which some people might find off-putting but i personally find very reassuring.

Boarding? Tongue I do think a lot of people would argue that the "boarding on" should not be in front of the "arrogance" part. Wink   

Anyway Göran Persson has had a huge up-swing in popularity post-premiership in Sweden. Both among the left and the right funnily enough. The Left because they see him as a competent and strong leader capable of winning elections, something they haven't had since him, and the right because he was a rather right-wing and fiscally responsible Social Democrat who doesn't mind calling out the Left Party and the Greens.

A boost of popularity once a politician is out of office is however nothing unusual. Everything is better viewed through nostalgic glasses. But it should be remembered that one of the major factors of the centre-left loss in 2006 was how sick the general public was of Göran Persson and especially his arrogance.

I should mention that I despised the man with a passion back in '06, but I'm one of those who've come around to him in later years, when he's removed far from power and is only brought out to deliver one-line zingers to his own party and their support troops. Wink   
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Greece General Discussion on: December 17, 2014, 05:34:27 am
Days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks of "major problems" if they vote in the "wrong" way. Pierre Moscovici avoided an explicit endorsement, but praised the "impressive" strides made by the government.

My God is Juncker stupid?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election 2015 on: December 16, 2014, 02:54:53 am
How early in advance does a PM usually call the election? A few weeks in advance or a few months?

HTS should call the election on March 22nd, and we could have an epic Sweden vs. Denmark election battle. Wink   
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who Governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 11, 2014, 02:29:22 am
Sverige tycker has now also released a traditional opinion poll:

V - 4,2%
S - 31,0%
MP- 5,8%

Government + supporters = 41,1%

M - 26,9%
C - 7,4%
FP - 4,8%
KD - 4,3%

Alliance = 43,4%

SD -14,0%

Others (including FI) - 1,6% (chuckles)

 
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who Governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 10, 2014, 07:11:35 am
Poll from Sverige tycker.

Who do you want to see as Prime Minister after the elections:

37% - Stefan Löfvén (S)
28% - Anna Kinberg Batra (M)
11% - Annie Lööf (C)
  8% - Jimmie Åkesson (SD)
  6% - Jonas Sjöstedt (V)
  3% - Gustav Fridolin (MP) / Jan Björklund (FP)
  2% - Göran Hägglund (KD)
>1% - Åsa Romsson (MP) / Mattias Karlsson (SD)


There are so many amusing things with this poll. Too bad it's from a polling firm I've never ever heard of before. Tongue

Anyway if we ponder that it is indeed correct, the number of people who wants the next government lead by a left-wing Prime Minister, and the ones who wants a Prime Minister from the Alliance, is almost equal.     

Hopefully red-greens run a good campaign and put the blame where it belongs.

They can try, but so far the indicators seem to be that they're not so good at pinning the blame on their opponents.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite British Leader of the Opposition that never made it to the Number 10 on: December 03, 2014, 07:07:37 pm
Hauge for his wit, and Kinnock for seeming like a genuinely good and friendly fellow.  

Of course all the commies loves Foot.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: HBtP: Have you ever paid for pornography? on: December 03, 2014, 05:47:25 pm
What exactly warranted this question? Huh
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 03, 2014, 05:43:01 pm
Will Reinfeldt be leading the Moderates in this election?

Nope, Anna Kinberg Batra will be elected as their new leader in January, and she has already unofficially taken over after Reinfeldt.


Her background sounds upper class/upper middle class. Is that going to be a problem? How posh is she?

Well lets just put it like this, when she first ran for parliament she uttered these infamous words while  being interviewed: "People from Stockholm are, in my opinion, smarter than country hicks." (Loose translation)

...So yeah!

Anyway nowadays she's married to folksy and popular comedian David Batra. So at least she has that. Tongue
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 03, 2014, 04:18:09 pm
Will Reinfeldt be leading the Moderates in this election?

Nope, Anna Kinberg Batra will be elected as their new leader in January, and she has already unofficially taken over after Reinfeldt.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 03, 2014, 12:03:59 pm
Does the Alliance have a comeback shot?

All bets are off.

I will not be surprised by either status quo or a political earthquake ala Denmark 1973.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Who Governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 03, 2014, 11:00:32 am
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30306992

Enjoy the chaos. Tongue
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 03, 2014, 10:54:27 am
Early elections will be held on 22 March next year.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 03, 2014, 10:20:13 am
Budget proposition defeated with 153 for it, 182 against it. The dice is cast.   

Press Conference with the Prime Minister expected at 16.30. Löfvén will either resign in order for the Speaker to find a new majority in the current parliament, or call a snap election.

So wait, is this really happening?

It would seem so.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 03, 2014, 07:07:16 am
As expected. So, early elections then?

When will it presumably be held - January, February?

Middle of February would be my guess. 
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 02, 2014, 12:10:35 pm
So, now that SD has supported the budget proposal of the Alliance, I guess we'll have a new Parliamentary Election in Sweden, in a couple of months?

That government certainly didn't last long.

It's not quite over yet. The government will send the budget back to committee, where they'll try to renegociate it.


I guess the government will now try to lure one of the Alliance party away from the block, but that might be difficult. Which party would generally be closest to the government economically? KD?

They might. If they try that they will fail. Löfvén needs to presuade all four if he wishes to get a deal. The party that breaks rank will be seen as the betrayer and will suffer. The Alliance will also get a better deal if they force the government to make up with all of them together.

If he is determined to just get one though, the Moderates are the obvious choice. They are the opposition party that is most unfit for a fight right now, being leaderless and all, and it would play into their responsible government party schtick they have going. Not to mention they have the greatest buffert for displeased supporters changing ship. 


Well let the chaos begin, I guess.

It's like the 70's again! Cheesy   
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: December 02, 2014, 05:46:20 am
So... if the Faroe Islands now decide to do it too and work fast, they might still beat us.

Don't worry, they won't. The Faroe Islands are tha Alabama of Northern Europe. Finland could drag this decission out for twenty years and you still would beat them. Wink
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: November 30, 2014, 07:49:35 pm
Of course I understand that, but the Alliance representatives has said nothing about negotiations like you do, they've only talked about how Löfven is responsible to pass the budget and haven't even been willing to discuss what will happen if SD brings down the government together with them.

And the sending it back to committee thing is a relatively recent development, the Alliance weren't even willing to discuss the issue before that either.

BTW, if the Alliance parties are going continue not working with other parties outside of their current framework (especially with FP&C continuing supporting Vårdnadsbidraget) while in opposition, why don't the parties just merge already? It obviously doesn't make a difference what party you vote for if FP for example is still going to fight for KD policies no matter the situation.

The Alliance has not discussed what they will do in the hypothetical scenario of their budget passing for very good and very obvious reasons. First, it is a very hypothetical scenario. SD likes to make noises to get attention, but during their four years in parliament they've never been willing to pull the trigger when it really came down to it. Secondly, if they do pull the trigger, it is the government that must act first, and as far as I know the government hasn't really announced what they'll do either. The only thing your side has said is that they will not govern on the oppositions budget (which is like saying the sky is blue) and now that they intend to send the budget back to committee. Which, as you yourself acknowledge is a very recent development. Until we know how you will react, we can't plan how we will react.

As for negotiations, that is my own theory based on small bits of info that I'm hearing from my parliamentary inside sources, that if SD does announce their intention to vote for us we will be willing to negotiate a deal, but you'll have to negotiate with all of us, not just one of your choosing, and you will have to make some major concessions and not just give us some symbolic crumbles. If the government is unwilling to do that, all bets are off.


I do believe you're a bit hyberbolic now. Lööf, Björklund, and Hägglund have all said that they will support individual legislation presented by the government if it aligns with their party's position. Björklund even specifically mentioned the third daddy month as such an issue. As for the particular case of Vårdnadsbidraget, that is a subsidy and thus part of the budget, and as the four parties have agreed to file a budget together based on the deals that were negotiated before the election, we will have to defend it as part of the budget package.

And even if the parties actually had the intention to only work as a united group in parliament for the coming four years, political parties are more than just the parliamentary party. As you know all four of the Alliance parties are involved in different sorts of coalitions and cooperation on the regional and local level, not to mention the European Parliament. So the idea that they are now so interchangeable that we should merge is of course a simplistic opinion.       
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: November 30, 2014, 01:36:06 pm
And of course I'm still waiting to hear what the Alliance will do if SD votes for their budget on wednesday. Yes Löfven is the PM, but since he's said he won't govern with the opposition's budget the Alliance has a responsibility to the voters to say how they will act if their proposal actually gets the support of a majority in the Riksdag.

It's not the opposition's responsibility to pass the government's budget for it. We don't want your budget, so why should we help you pass it? The Social Democrats didn't abstain in budget votes during the last term, to help political stability. If you want the Alliance to pass your budget for you, you will have to negotiate with us (all four of us) and make a necessary compromise where we also get through large portions of our policies. That is how politics work.     

(It isn't our fault that you could only convince 43,6% of the voters to vote for you.)

If Löfvén does choose to negotiate with all four of us, instead of one party that he hopes he might get into submission, I would presume there could be a compromise proposal. If he instead chooses to resign I would presume we're headed for an early election next year. 

Anyway, this is all hypothetical as the budget proposal will be sent back to committee, and not be put up for a vote, if SD announces that they intend to vote for the counter proposal.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Will Estonia join Nordic Council within the next 50 years (as full member)? on: November 28, 2014, 09:28:11 pm
Is it even possible to be part of the Nordic Council without having a variation of their cross flag? Tongue

Yes, Greenland is a member.

Greenland is the colony of a country with a cross flag though.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: November 28, 2014, 10:33:18 am
Löfven today demanded that the right-wing take responsibility for the parliamentary situation. But when pressed he could not specify what he actually wanted. Tongue

If you're referring to the DN article I thought it was pretty clear, it was the same thing he's said since the election: if the right-wing parties (C&FP in particular) want to lock out the Sweden Democrats from influence they should be willing to talk with the government. But of course things are continuing to look as bleak as ever on that front as those parties seem more interested in only being in the opposition (understandable after what governing did to their vote share) and obstructing things when its politically expedient.

Shameful isn't it? It's not as if the Social Democrats would ever obstruct in opposition, especially not when it's politically expedient...
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Tony Abbott? on: November 15, 2014, 05:17:36 am
A bigoted and mostly incompetent Prime Minister who's eroded everything liberal about the Liberal Party and who I believe will make terrible damage to the Australian centre-right for a generation.   

Tony Abbot is the perfect opposition leader. He's ruthless, opportunistic, and wickedly effective at breaking down and tearing apart his opponents, but terrible at filling the shoes of national leader once he's successfully terminated them.   
By liberal, they mean classically liberal.

Yes... I know. I'm European, so that is always what I mean when I use the word liberal.

So allow me to clarify, Tony Abbott has eroded everything classically liberal about the Liberal party, it now acts as a reactionary Conservative party. There's very little of a night-watchman state in what he's trying to create.   
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Sweden Considering Sexism Labels For Video Games on: November 15, 2014, 05:10:52 am
I would just like to note that I didn't vote for this new Socialist regime, and I want no part of the blame for this government's moronic political correctness crusades over the coming four years. 

The gaming industry trade organsation got some money from a funding agency to in some way support gender equality in games. In what way has this got anything to do with the current government, rather than the trade organisation and the case officer at the funding agency?

Case Officer's that get to hand out funding get their directives from somewhere you know, they don't just get to make decisions on who to throw money at based on their own personal views.

As for the Trade Organisation, it is adapting to the political realities of the day. You can compare it to Hollywood adapting the restrictive Hays Code of Censorship back in the day due to the fear of Government mandated film regulations from Washington. Better to act than react so to speak. I doubt the Swedish gaming industry just woke up two weeks ago and had a sudden realization that they should probably rate their games based on sexism, they clearly fear that if they don't look as if they're doing something, they'd be the perfect target for the government to institute some "reform" trying to win back the 3,1% that voted for the Schyman cult.

Who did you vote for SwedishCheese?

The Centre Party
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