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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump will 'probably sue' Iowa over caucus results on: February 03, 2016, 07:09:29 pm
It is all perfectly logical if the objective is to hurt the Republican Party and have Hillary Clinton elected president.

That has been my wild conspiracy theory throughout, that Trumps candidacy is all a ploy to help his old buddies the Clintons.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will any of the following drop out BEFORE New Hampshire? on: February 03, 2016, 04:05:04 am
Why hasn't Santorum already dropped out? His only chance was to make a repeat of 2012 and pull an upset in Iowa, but he barely got more than half the votes Huckabee mustered. Heck he was beaten by Kasich, who didn't even compete in Iowa. Dude needs to go.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump finished? on: February 02, 2016, 10:27:45 am
It all depends on NH. After Rubio's result yesterday I could see him shoring up the establishment vote and surging  to a victory there. In that case, Trump should be done. If the Donald wins though he'll probably take SC as well and then he'll be one of three strong candidates going into Super Tuesday.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: February 01, 2016, 07:14:33 am
REPUBLICANS

Trump     30%
Cruz     21%
Rubio     17%
Carson     10%
Paul     7%
Huckabee     3%
Bush     3%
Christie     3%
Santorum     2%
Fiorina     2%
Kasich     > 1%
Gilmore     > 1%

DEMOCRATS

Clinton     51%
Sanders     48%
O'Malley     1% 
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your Iowa GOP Predictions. on: January 30, 2016, 10:09:07 pm
Top 5 (the rest are unimportant)

Trump - 30,2%
Cruz - 21,6%
Rubio - 16,8%
Carson - 10,4%
Paul - 7,0%
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your Iowa GOP Predictions. on: January 29, 2016, 07:54:18 pm
I said Clinton 47-45 and sticking to that.

I'm absolutely 100% sure that Clinton will not win the GOP caucus.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: January 29, 2016, 09:47:04 am
So let's say Van Der Bellen becomes president and FP then becomes the largest party in the next general election and VP agrees to enter into a coalition with them. How would that whole situation be handled, if VdB stands firm on his promise to not to swear in Strache as chancellor, how that crisis be handled? Is there a way for parliament to force the president to accept the majority's chancellor candidate, or would it cause new elections, or would the whole thing just end in a stalemate where it isn't possible to namne a new government?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the main Fox debate? on: January 29, 2016, 07:55:56 am
According to Vox, Trump won for not showing up.

Quote
By picking a well-timed fight with Fox News and Megyn Kelly, Trump dominated days of debate coverage without even participating, then stood aside and laughed hosting his own rival televised event while on the main stage his GOP rivals spent hours squabbling with each other and turning in poor man's versions of Trump-style demagoguery.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How much will TRUMP underperform his poll numbers? on: January 28, 2016, 04:19:58 pm
What's wrong with that? It's a better assessment than "dah hur Trump is gonna underperform because I don't like him dah hur".

But don't you know there are thousands of thousands of people just telling pollster they'll vote Trump, not to mention the people who actually support Trump are all lazy people who will never bother to actually go out and vote for him. Tongue


In all seriousness though, it is impossible to know who turns out and vote what way until the day actauuly comes. But I really see Trump as the American equivalent to far-right populist parties in Europe like FP and the Sweden Democrats, and they have a tendency to underpoll (although people also like to pretend their voters won't turn out beacsue they're lazy and so on) so if anything I think THE DONALDS support might be higher then polls are showing. 
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: January 28, 2016, 09:04:42 am
Shouldn't be that surprising. During the 2015 general election, their campaign posters featured slogans like "Stramme asylregler og flere krav til indvandrere". (Strict rules for asylum and more demands for immigrants, too translate it a bit awkwardly.)
I know, I followed that campaign Smiley I just didn't think they would ever double down on that "promise", especially since I thought people that are more "soft" on immigration had gained power within the party after HTS's defeat.

That might very well be so, but "soft on immigration" politicians in Europe has generally had an awful time outside and with-in their parties after the refugee crisis culminated, so it's natural that such politicians would either have to adopt a new position, or risk falling out of favour. (i.e. see the Swedish government for referens how quickly left-wing pro-immigration positions can falter in times like these.)
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: January 25, 2016, 04:37:02 am
How is it possible for the AfD to have such low support among women while having such high support among men? That's very unusual.

Not really. Compare for example with Sweden Democrats in Sweden. The last poll that made a break-down by gender showed a 15% gap in support for the party.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: confirmed. Palin endorses Trump on: January 20, 2016, 07:20:27 am
This must be driving the GOP establishment crazy seeing their party taken over by the nuts.

They have only themselves to blame for feeding the haters over the last 40 years for electoral gain.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's chances of winning the nomination on: January 19, 2016, 03:10:27 am
Trumpdeniers still being delusional. 
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Actor Alan Rickman has died on: January 14, 2016, 08:05:31 am
Actor Alan Rickman has passed away in cancer.

Very sad. A truly iconic British actor. 
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the GOP Nominee on: January 06, 2016, 12:25:53 pm
When Trump started to lead they said Jeb would eventually beat him...
When Trump continued to lead they said Walker would eventually surge and beat him...
When Trump continued to lead after Walker was a joke they said Carson would win...
When Carson lead for like two seconds in Iowa they said "AHA" we told you so...
When Trump went out and called Iowa stupid they jizzed in their pants because now for real Trump was finished...
When Trump again started to lead they said Rubio would beat him...
When Trump continued to lead they said Cruz would evetually beat him...
When Cruz lead for like two seconds in Iowa they said "AHA" we told you so...

It's going to be Trump. With 90% certainty, it's going to be Trump. Stop deluding yourself.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which congressional or other electoral districts have you been to in 2015? on: January 03, 2016, 06:26:31 pm


16 out of 29, not too bad.

17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 15, 2015, 05:45:10 am
Having looked a little bit at the election results from the area where I grew up I am sure it would be possible to do lots of interesting analysis based on the data. One clear trend is that the electorate has become much more diverse party-wise.

Indeed. I do believe I heard Sren Holmberg (Sweden's most distinguished election professor for third-party readers) say that it was a trend that the geographic political polarisation in Sweden was diminishing, but that it was broken around 2006, and that we have since then once again started to move in a direction with more geographic political polarisation. I'd be interesting to make a further analytical dive into the numbers on that one though.   

Thank you so much! Cheesy

No problem.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 14, 2015, 09:57:56 am
Question to the Swedish posters: if I want to find Swedish election results by municipality in the past, where should I look? I am thinking of the 1950s onwards.

Use Gunnar's links if you want to find the results in elections to city councils and municipality councils. For the general elections, and referendums these links will work. Couldn't find any General election results by municipality before 1958, and only local results in referendums for the 2003 and 1994 referendums.

General elections
2014
2010
2006
2002
1998 (p. 32 onward)
1994 (p. 36 onward)
1991 (p. 22 onward)
1988 (p. 163 onward)
1985 (p. 182 onward)
1982 (p. 181 onward)
1979 (p. 180 onward)
1976 (p. 156 onward)
1973 (p. 161 onward)
1970 (p. 210 onward)
1968 (p. 239 onward)
1964 (p. 32 onward)
1960 (p. 28 onward)
1958 (p. 18 onward)

National referendums
2003 EURO-Zone membership
1994 Membership European Union
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: December 09, 2015, 07:15:08 am
Some people would argue that no foreign policy is better than a bad one. Tongue
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Danish Referendum on converting EU justice opt-out to opt-in, 3 December 2015 on: December 03, 2015, 04:04:08 pm
Interesting to see the what the results in Struer and Holstebro will be, since that's the area my grandparents are from. Hopefully they both reject the merger with a big margin. Municiplaity mergers are almost always a terrible idea, and the Danish ones are already pretty big since the large national merger. 
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Pew: Europe will remain Christian-majority beyond 2050 on: November 26, 2015, 07:57:52 am
Projected growth for this long of a period is obviously always a load of horse sh**t. I can assure you that the projections of this sort that were made in 1970's would be terribly incorrect of how it has actually turned out today, because they would fail to take into account for example the wave of migration that we see today due to wars in the middle east. Similarly this estimation thinks that every factor will stay the same as it is now, for 35 years! without any unforeseen events affecting it??!! That is just 99,99999% bull. 
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: November 24, 2015, 10:27:10 am
The Swedish Red-Green Government held a press conference this afternoon, introducing several new measures to restrict and limit the high number of refugees. The new measures that will be introduced are the following:

The Aliens Act will be adjusted so that Sweden accepts the EU minimum level of refugees. This will apply for three years.

The right to family reunification will be subject to a very strict time limit.

The ages of all unaccompanied children will be medically verified.

All new asylum seekers will be given temporary residence permits only. Exceptions will be made for children and families who registered before the new rules are introduced.

ID checks will be enforced on all modes of public transport to Sweden. 

Green Deputy Prime Minister sa Romsson cried during the press conference. This is a 180 from their very liberal migration policy.

23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Paris Attacks on: November 14, 2015, 05:26:28 pm
Does anyone else have SJW friends saying that we shouldn't talk about Paris unless we also talk about Beirut and the attack in Kenya in April? It's basically all that's in my news feed right now.

Yes, of course.

Stuff like that is one of the reasons people in general can't stand SJW.
24  General Politics / Economics / Re: Why is the VAT system so widely used? on: November 13, 2015, 10:01:39 am
As for the paper work issues, I'm not sure where the reputation for complication comes from (Europe maybe?). VAT forms in Canada are short and simple, as is the accounting for it.

Pretty sure it's not that complicated in Sweden either. I've never heard any business in Sweden complain over it. Seems more like an American excuse to claim their system is superior. Tongue   
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's all over. It's November, and Hillary leads 59-32. on: November 13, 2015, 07:51:19 am
Hillary is the clear favorite, but yeah too many people act as if there is a single national primary or something.

Which makes the comparison to '08 more disillusion. Even if the distance between Clinton and Sanders is the same as between Clinton and Obama at the same time in '08, Clinton is clearly in a stronger position in Iowa this time than she was in '08. If Sanders can't score some early victories the same way Obama did his momentum will pretty quickly fizzle.
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