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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 12:14:55 pm


And leading electoral coalition, same warnings about provisional results etc.

Speaking of which, it's time to add another election to this count.

2006:

Constituencies won by the Alliance by margin

1 Stockholm County (+23,08%)
2 Stockholm City (+15,93%)
3 Halland (+14,79%)
4 Skåne South (+14,62)
5 V. Götaland West (+9,85%)
6 Uppsala (+9,20%)
7 Jönköping (+8,76%)
8 Skåne North & East (+7,54%) Grin This is where I live
9 Skåne West (+5,72%)
10 Kronoberg (+4,48%)
11 V. Götaland South (+2,90%)
12 Gothenburg (+2,31%)
13 Gotland (+1,90%)
14 V. Götaland East (+0,46%)

Constituencies won by the Red-Greens by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,78%) Bloody Scary Sad
2 Västerbotten (+19,83%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,69%)
4 Gävleborg (+13,96%)
5 Örebro (+13,70%)
6 Jämtland (+11,11%)
7 Blekinge (+10,65%)
8 Värmland (+9,62%)
9 Dalarna (+9,07%)
10 Södermanland (+9,02%)
11 Västmanland (+6,22%)
12 Kalmar (+5,54%)
13 V. Götaland North (+3,47%)
14 Malmö (+3,07%)
15 Östergötland (+1,06%)


2010:

Constituencies with Alliance plurality by margin

1 Stockholm County (+26,15%)
2 Skåne South (+24,43%)
3 Halland (+20,37%)
4 V Götaland West (+17,04%)
5 Stockholm City (+14,00%)
6 Skåne North & East (+13,18%)
7 Jönköping (+13,02%)
8 Skåne West (+12,76)
9 Kronoberg (+10,39%)
10 Uppsala (+10,25%)
11 V Götaland South (+6,54%)
12 V Götaland East (+4,55%)
13 Gothenburg (+4,23%)
14 V Götaland North (+2,64%)
15 Malmö (+2,12%)
16 Östergötland (+1,95%)
17 Kalmar (+0,74%)

Constituencies with Red-Green plurality by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,77%)
2 Västerbotten (+22,85%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,35%)
4 Gävleborg (+11,82%)
5 Jämtland (+11,62%)
6 Örebro (+9,17%)
7 Dalarna (+7,03%)
8 Värmland (+6,10%)
9 Blekinge (+4,32%)
10 Västmanland (+3,57%)
11 Södermanland (+2.35%)
12 Gotland (+0,40%)

2014:

Constituencies with Alliance plurality by margin

1 Stockholm County (+13,7%)
2 Skåne South (+8,6%)
3 Halland (+8,0%)
4 V Götaland West (+5,3%)
5 Stockholm City (+4,1%)
6 Jönköping (+1,2%)

Constituencies with Red-Green plurality by margin

1 Norrbotten (+38,9%)
2 Västerbotten (+30,0%)
3 Västernorrland (+26,7%)
4 Gävleborg (+18,9%)
5 Jämtland (+17,9%)
6 Örebro (+15,2%)
7 Värmland (+14,5%)
8 Blekinge (+14,4%)
9 Dalarna (+12,7%)
10 Malmö (+11,5)
11 Västmanland (+10,8%)
12 Södermanland (+10%)
13 Kalmar (+7,5%)
14 V Götaland North (+7,0%)
15 V Götaland East (+5,9%)
16 Östergötland (+5,6%)
17 Gotland (+3,8%)
18 Gothenburg (+3,6%)
19 Kronoberg (+2,9%)
20 Uppsala (+2,9%)
21 Skåne West (+2,9%)
22 V Götaland South (+2,6%)
23 Såne North & East (+1,9%)


2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 11:10:40 am
This thread is getting way too sage for its own good.

What do you expect? Its a Sweden thread without any Swedes to give us some proper analysis (most of them are probably drowning their sorrows, Gustaf might actually be celebrating). Idle speculation, sagery and rhetorical grand standing is bound to fill the void.

I've bought a huge bag of candy to devour them. Comfort eating is the way. Don't worry though, I'll post something more noteworthy (analysis, maps), later tonight or tomorrow. 
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 07:11:30 am
Why is it that Stockholm votes so much more to the right than the rest of Sweden while in Denmark Copenhagen is much more leftwing than the rest of Denmark

Are? you? for? real??? Have you seriously forgotten that you've asked this question about 4 times before, and already gotten the same answer from different posters over and over. If you do not suffer from amnesia I have a hard time thinking you can have missed that.

]

Thank you!

I may have posed this question ONCE several years ago if that, I don't why you feel the need to be insulting. If you want sift through the archive of every single thing I have ever posted on this site then please do and show me where I have "asked the exact same question" FOUR times. And BTW there are some topics that merit being rehashed every four or five years (if not more)

Don't worry, he did the same with me when I brought up the ballot-thing again yesterday ... Wink

I do not count on people remembering the answer to every question I answered four years ago, especially not if it relates to how ballots in Sweden works, but DL has, quite literally gotten his question about why Stockholm is more centre-right than most European capitals answered in every thread that some-how relates to Swedish elections.  There's even a discussion on it in the Denmark 2011 thread.

As Lurker said, it's the same discussion between the same people over and over again.

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 03:11:22 am
Why is it that Stockholm votes so much more to the right than the rest of Sweden while in Denmark Copenhagen is much more leftwing than the rest of Denmark

Are? you? for? real??? Have you seriously forgotten that you've asked this question about 4 times before, and already gotten the same answer from different posters over and over. If you do not suffer from amnesia I have a hard time thinking you can have missed that.

I know you lived in Stockholm for a while in your youth, and that you have this very romantacised picture of the city, which is very hard to reconcile with the politics of the place. But you really need to stop asking this question if you're never going to be willing to accept the answer.

 
Ah, the old discussion of why Stockholm is right-wing (it wasn't last night, actually...). No offense, but I feel like DL is the one who asks that question every single time, with the same people replying and the same counter-arguments from DL. Tongue


Thank you!
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:32:16 pm
Also where are municipal results posted?

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/K/rike/index.html
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:19:46 pm
Reinfeldt has announced his resignation.

Both as PM and party leader.

Bastard. Wink
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:19:19 pm
Reinfeldt just announced his resignation, both as Prime Minister and leader of the Moderate Party
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:06:48 pm
The election dates are fixed. So no matter what happen we will have an election in September of 2018. But early elections are still possible, but the term of those elections only last until the ordinary election would have been held. That is why the 1960 election is not an early election. It was the ordinary election following the 1956 election.

It seems one can be a candidate in two districts?

Yes, Jimmie Åkesson is a candidate in every constituency.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 14, 2014, 09:37:13 am
Word on the street (and by street i mean precinct officers) is that turn-out seems to be higher this year than in 2010. Lines are being reported in polling stations where there's been no lines before, despite the fact that early voting is breaking record numbers once again. Taking this into account, it wouldn't be completely out of question we get 86%-87% turn-out.

   
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 14, 2014, 09:27:02 am
Is it true that in Sweden there are piles of ballots in the polling station for each party and you can draw a ballot for the party you are voting for ?

So, basically everyone knows for which party you are voting, depending which ballot you take (unless you take ballots for every party with you into the voting booth) ?

You asked this question four years ago as well Tender, I'm disappointed you do not remember.

The answer is yes and yes. People who want to keep their vote secret bring their own ballot papers or take one from every party.

Isn't this a terrible waste of paper you might ask. Yes it is, but Sweden has a very big forestry and paper industry so see it as one big subsidy every four years. Wink
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 14, 2014, 12:45:23 am
Final prediction:

M: 23,1%
C: 6,1%
FP: 6,6%
KD: 4,8%

S: 29,8%
V: 6,5%
MP: 8,3%

SD: 10,6%
FI: 3,3%

Alliance: 40,6%
(S)(v)a(mp): 44,6%


12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 13, 2014, 03:35:26 pm
Come on, we really need those lend votes for FI!

Sure, we need them to end up just around 3,9%. Wink
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 13, 2014, 03:20:19 pm
Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening Smiley

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%. Wink

It could happen of course, but unlike the crap British polling industry, Sweden's has actually tended to be pretty good. So I'd be more surprised if your pollsters screwed up that much. Tongue

Yeah I don't think they've screwed up either, and would be shocked if we didn't get a somewhat predictable result. I just wanted to point to the possibility.  Smiley
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 13, 2014, 02:34:54 pm
Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening Smiley

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%. Wink
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 12, 2014, 05:44:47 am
Btw, do you have any exit poll numbers for young voters and their support for SD and F! in 2010?

Unfortunately it's no longer possible to view the results from the exit poll on SVT's website, and I can't access the files on the Gothenburg University website, but if I don't remember completely incorrectly SD's support among the 18-29 age group was 7-8% while others had 2-3% (others include both Fi and the Pirates, both stronger among the young than the general public.) 

   
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 11, 2014, 06:55:16 pm
As to show I'm not pulling this out of thin air:

http://pejl.svt.se/visualisering/politik/partisympatier-over-tid/#party=Alla+partier&indicator=_1829

As you can see, in the autumn of 2010 the age group 18-29 aligned as follows:

Left: 51% (S: 26,3% MP: 17,8% V: 6,9%)
Right: 40,7% (M: 29,0% C: 3,3% FP: 6,2% KD: 2,2%)
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 11, 2014, 06:44:13 pm
In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.

OK, though the article said the Alliance had almost a 10% margin in Ipsos' three last polls before last election. Tongue

Yes I read that as well, but the article is incorrect. (not that surprising considering it's DN)

The VALU exit poll from 2010 showed 18-29-year-old went to the left by a 10 point margin. It might be possible the Alliance won youths in 2006, but in 2010 they most certainly didn't.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 11, 2014, 05:47:33 pm
In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 11, 2014, 12:35:29 pm
What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

I'm not a Sweden expert, but I'd say probably svt.se. Tongue

Yep svt.se could work. The election authority's site (in Swedish will publish its result here on election night so it could certainly be worth keeping an eye on.
http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

What he said.

SVT will release an exit poll at 8 pm, and start showing reported results around 9 pm, and update as more results come in.

The election authority site will publish every precinct result as soon as they are reporte and update throughout the night as results come in.   
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which term do you prefer? on: September 11, 2014, 01:24:19 am
Ideally it would be HBT (Homosexual, Bisexual, Transsexual) or HBTQ (+Queer) There really no point in differentiation of male and female homosexuals. However if it must be gender-specific obviously LGBT is preferable.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 09, 2014, 02:04:00 pm
People, lets not get ahead of ourselves. You're all talking like the Alliance were dominating in these polls. Let's not forget that the combined vote share for M+FP+KD+C is still at an all time low. The government had crushed through their floor, and is now climbing up to end up around their catastrophic 1994 result. Sure, if the trend continues unbroken for the last days, it might get interesting, but so far there's really no big change from what polls were showing last week, a hung parliament with a left-wing plurality.
 
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 09, 2014, 12:21:11 am
Yeah so this is really happening!

United Minds:

M: 21,0% (+0,1%)
C: 6,5% (+1,9%)
FP: 6,9% (+0,4%)
KD: 5,7%

S: 29,6% (-0,9%)
V: 7,2% (-0,1%)
MP: 7,5% (-1,3%)

SD: 11,1 (-0,3%)
FI: 3,4% (+0,6%)

Alliance: 40,0%
Mushrooms: 44,2%
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 08, 2014, 08:07:02 am
I love it when people see conspiracies everywhere. Cheesy Of course Kate and William thouroughly planned their sex-life to have a new baby on the way just a week before the referendum to make sure that their future United Kingdom stays united. There can be no ther logicall explination, especially considering the fact that Scotland will keep the monarchy no matter what. Tongue   
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 08, 2014, 02:19:50 am
In instant runoff system they would prefer M over other parties?

In European elections their heartland were rural Götaland and Svealand (suprisingly) not immigrantfull suburbs. I just thought would those people prefer M or C or SAP or even KD (whatever of the less-liberal party is perceived most anti-EU).

In Finland True Finns include former Centre voters (that actually come back and voted SMP in eigthies before that party collapsed), very much SDP in some areas, propably some pro-military KOK voters, but also very many Sleepers.

In 2010, most of their voters were people who would not have turned out for any other party. (According to exit polls)

The ones who simply wouldn't stay home in a runoff would probably distribute quite unevenly. A lot of their support is rural working-class that would go for S over M every day of the week, while others would probably go for one of the burgious parties. It's really hard to say. Hopefully the VALU exit poll will include a shart for second-choice (It has done sometimes in the past)

And the fact that SD is strongest in rural and small town Götaland and Sveland where multiculture consists of a Pizza place is of course well known. Still there are exceptions, SD's strongest precinct in the entire country is the very urban, next-door neighbours to Rosengård, Almgården. But that is sort of a special case.     
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Swedish general election, 2014 on: September 07, 2014, 02:50:19 pm
This obviously isn't a hypothetical question for me, I'm going to vote for the Centre Party.

Is that because of Centre's libertarian swing or in spite of it?

It's both for their liberal (as in the European Libertarian-light meaning of the word) stances on certain social and economic issues, but also their environmentalist policies, and their policies for rural and small town areas. So it's both, I guess, to sort of answer your question.

(Although I've had my doubts about the party at points the last four years, they're still the party that falls closest to my values by quite a margin.)  


Didn't the FI leader call for banning urinals at Swedish universities because allowing men to piss standing up was an assertion of alleged gender superiority or something? Kind of hard to believe they might even make the threshold...

It does sort of sound like a thing FI would suggest... they do have a lot of strange proposals, and I do know I've heard the urinal debate, but I'm not certain it was Schyman personally who suggested it in that case.
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