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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 27, 2014, 04:12:24 pm
The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.


I must admit I find the fact that they get more than 1% of the vote amazing, who votes for them?

Pretentious 20-something hipsters who see elections as a chance at making a statement, and not as actually choosing people to govern us for the next four years. They're a fad, and they'll once more disappear into obscurity once they fail to enter parliament in three weeks.

Still, with around 2-3% of the support they should be able to conquer seats at a few City Council besides Schyman's home town of Simrishamn, and Gothenburg should be a prime target, but if they can't muster more than 1,5% in a city that brim with their target audience, they're becoming irrelevant even faster than I'd have expected them to. 
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 27, 2014, 03:07:58 am
The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 24, 2014, 06:54:08 pm
OK, guys, stop this. Danish and Swedish media both love to score cheap points through demonizing the other country, which affects our relations negatively. No need to keep that demonization rolling. There are things both countries can learn from each other.

What are you, a Dane?

Nah, more like a Scanian. A real Dane would not have admitted Denmark can learn anything from Sweden.

Never! A true Scanian such as myself would call both Danes and Swedes deluded and moronic. We just want our independence from the both of you.

The obvious answer is that Tayya is Norwegian. There's no point denying it! There's astounding proof of this theory, such as the fact that he didn't make a single forum post on May 17th! Now that can only mean one thing:

 
79  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in London or Stockholm? on: August 24, 2014, 06:36:53 pm
How from Scania's perspective is Stockholm the "backside of the country"? Again, I don't know Stockholm, but my assumption is it's the NYC of Sweden culturally, artistically, business-wise, etc.

Well lets assume Stockholm is the NYC of Sweden. That would make me a guy from the rural Texas of Sweden currently living in the Austin of Sweden. There right there should explain it all. Wink   
80  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in London or Stockholm? on: August 24, 2014, 05:46:00 pm
London of course. Smiley

Shocked

4 realz SWEDISH Cheese? Huh

He's not from Sweden, he's from Scania.

HE.LL YEAH! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy




Anyway, to clarify, I already live in the greatest city in Sweden, so if I were to move it certainly wouldn't be to the backside of the country, but to some new exciting place like London. Smiley
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 24, 2014, 04:25:27 am
Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

Not any that I know of.
82  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in London or Stockholm? on: August 23, 2014, 05:57:39 pm
London of course. Smiley
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 21, 2014, 03:38:47 pm
I don't think anyone genuinely doubts that S, V and MP could make a budget together. The question is what happens if they don't have a majority which is still a feasible scenario. A budget that V is on board with would probably be a hard sell to any of the other parties. This is why S keeps flirting with C/FP.

Indeed, but as long as S/V/MP is bigger than the Alliance they can govern as a minority as long as SD doesn't join an Alliance budget. Finding cross-aisle support for individual policies is also hard but perhaps more doable.

Yeah, that is what it comes down to, and since it's extremely unlikely that SD would all of a sudden do a 180 degree turn and unquestionably vote for an Alliance budget they had no influence on, especially not just a month and a half after the Alliance was just rejected by the voters.   
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 21, 2014, 12:47:00 pm
Meh, the budget thing is mostly concern-trolling from the right to be honest. As is the left's fear that the Alliance will all of a sudden join forces with SD to stay in power no matter what. If Reinfeldt wanted to take that route, he wouldn't make a speech enraging SD-core supporters and even some of his own voters a few weeks before the election. Both claims have little to no basis in reality and are purely tactical talking-points.

The Left is clearly trying to scare working-class people who hate the government into thinking that a vote for SD is a vote for the Alliance in order to keep them in the Labour camp. While the right is trying to continue building on the "The Left won't be able to govern together" narrative they've desperately been trying to push with cake commercials and what not.     

The idea that a S+MP government wouldn't be able to pass a budget all presume two things that are far from certain. 

1) That S+MP doesn't make a budget deal with V, similarly to what Persson made with V and MP 1998-2002. After all V has only said they won't join a government that doesn't ban profits in the welfare sector, not that they will never support their budgets.

2) That the Alliance will keep making a joint budget once they're in opposition. Far from certain. They might very well do it the first budget process after the election, but I have a hard time seeing them keep that up for four years.

Of course, I know that close to election people always like to imagine the worst case scenario, but as long as the relationship between S+MP and V doesn't sour completely before October 1st, it's not going to happen.

85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 21, 2014, 09:37:05 am
Yes, really two worlds apart.

Well really there is Skne inbetween which is something of a mix of the two. Tongue
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 16, 2014, 07:20:48 am
Feminist Initiative is proposing a special tax that only men will have to pay, in order to even out the sallery gap between the genders... FI's leader, Gudrun Schyman, doesn't want to call it a Man Tax though... "That sounds wrong... I prefer the term Equality Tax".

Because nothing quite says equality like having people pay different tax levels based on their gender.

Apperently Schyman thinks this will be a big vote winner. I'm sceptical...
At least S, V, and MP can rejoice that the pink voter leech will have destroyed itself by September 14th.   


 
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 15, 2014, 01:53:32 am
But as the Greens notoriously overpreform in polls  something quite extraordinary would be required for that to happen. (in august 2010 only 2% seperated them from S, but on election day they were 9% behind)

What is the reason for this?

If I was to guess, it'd be young people telling pollsters one thing, then not turning up to vote on the day

That's probably not it, because the Greens tends to over-preform in Exit Polls as well. 
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 11, 2014, 01:48:13 pm
So I have some news. As of today, I am officially employed as Campaign Manager for the Centre Party in a local election close to where I live. So for the upcoming five weeks I'm afraid I'll be working round the clock and won't have very much time to post here. As much as discussing politics on here are great, being paid to work with politics in RL will have to take priority. Wink

However I do believe this thread is in good hands with Tayya.   

Rerevising my prediction to a gov't hold. Margins decreasing, brainwashed faninists not coming around and it's becomkng more and more clear that the right plans to utilize SD to stay in power essentially forever to feed their donors with the ruins of our welfare state.

... or maybe not. <.<


Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?

Yes, Schyman has said they want the next government be led by Stefan Lfvn. 
89  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: why does America have a Fetish for perfect teeth? on: August 09, 2014, 08:02:51 pm
Just as with the American spelling of the word color, as opposed to the British colour, this has its roots in the American Revolution. You see once the US of fu.ckin' A became an independent country, they were desperate to cut their ties to that old rainy bleak island who'd not so long ago ruled over them. Therefor they decided to get rid of all pesky British things they could find on their continent.

Now what is more British than horrendous teeth? Tea in all honour (or should I say honor) but that's just an Indian import. A crocked brown smile, now there's where real England's at. So as a counter reaction to this all true patriotic Americans became determined to have the straightest, whitest teeth in all of the world.

The great inspiration for this was of course George Washington himself, with his beautiful teeth made of ivory and gold. Of course those British bastards, jealous as always, spread the false myth that the first president had wooden teeth, BUT LET IT BE CLEAR, George Washington had wonderful teeth and he sat the example that all young men and women should follow.

GOD SAVE AMERICA! Cry 
90  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: August 09, 2014, 01:32:27 pm
Me and one of my new best friends.


91  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I wrote and directed my own movie. on: August 09, 2014, 01:25:26 pm
I was expecting a short film around 15-20 min. Doing a full length film is very impressive, something that people will generally have a hard time pulling off without quite some experience, so my hat goes off to you good sir.

I'll try to make time to watch the whole thing soon.   
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 09, 2014, 12:38:04 pm
Do you see the campaign as an interesting one, a balanced one or a dull one ?

It's been incredibly dull so far. But I guess there's still some hope the last month might turn out decently... if very little.

And what do you think turnout will be like ?

From what I remember, it was 84-85% in 2010 ...

Hard to say. If I had to take a guess I'd say that it'll decrease slightly and end up at 81-82%, but that's only my gut feeling.

I really doubt that the Red-Greens will get a majority next month. The Sweden Democrats will probably hold the "balance of power" like last time, but with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc this time around.

As do I. The only real hope for a majority would probably be either if FI imploded completely in the last month, or if they manage to recover and get above 4%. As it is now they leech to many voters that would otherwise vote for S, V, or MP without contributing. If the Alliance increases just as much as 1-2%, getting over the 175 line will be virtually impossible for the Mushrooms. (And in the last six elections, the incumbent government has always improved in the last month)

But of course, just to be clear, there's no knowing what might happen in the end. Elections are... weird. 

Would Reinfeldt try to remain in power in such a scenario, or would he step down?

Reinfeldt has one important advantage, he is in power. A majority in the parliament (riksdag) has to vote against him in a vote of cofidence in order for a change off power. I can not see that SD does this. One possibilty is off course that he resigns.

Four years ago you would have been entirely correct, Fredrik. However as part of the Constitutional Reform of 2010, the constitution now states that a vote of confidence must be held within two weeks of the opening of parliament. Meaning that Reinfeldt won't be able to just skate by the same way he did four years ago. (6:e kap. 3 Regeringsformen

And even if the government could theoretically survive a vote of confidence thanks to enough MPs voting abstain, they will not be able to pass a budget unless they're bigger than S+V+MP. Meaning they'd just get outsed a month later.

So in all likelihood Reinfeldt will resign, allowing Lfvn an attempt to form government, which he most likely will succeed with thanks to abstaining right-wingers. That being said, without a majority Lfvn will be greatly wing-clipped and will either have to cross the aisle or rely on SD support to push through reforms, which will limit the amount of damage his government can do.     
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 09, 2014, 05:10:04 am
New SIFO poll out. You won't get any results from my phone but M is up while MP is down signalling that the post-EP bump is over as the opposite was true in May. Red-Greens don't budge thanks to S improving, Alliance improves despite C and FP losing thanks to a strong showing for M (23,9% - the mighty has fallen...) The margin is SVaMP up 9.8% with a bare majority in mandates. SD holds still at 9, FI down to 2.6% (will they fade before the election??), others down big from an improbable 1.9% to 0.8% contributing to most if the margin decrease.

Where's your precious twitter now? Tongue


SIFO:

M - 23,9% (+2,7%) 86 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 22 seats
C - 4,6% (-0,9%) 17 seats
KD - 4,3% (+0,8%) 16 seats

S - 30,7% (+1,3%) 111 seats
V - 6,6% (+0,2%) 24 seats
MP - 11,4% (-1,6%) 41 seats

SD - 9,0% (+/-) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,8%) 0 seats
Oth: 0,8%

Alliance - 38,9% (+1,3%) 141 seats
Mushrooms - 48,7% (-0,1%) 176 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority by two seats. 

So these two polls seem to agree that the Moderates are making up for some lost ground, Greens are dropping, and FI we can (hopefully) count FI out. Sounds promising enough. ^^
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: August 08, 2014, 06:26:51 am
For those who don't know, this is the link everyone is talking about.

Quite an interesting reflection on the psyche of 'entitlement' from some corners of the UK. It's like telling a woman who filed for divorce that because the husband doesn't want her to go he should be able to stop her.

Is it? They're clearly saying in that letter that the choice is Scotland's and Scotland's alone, so they're not really professing any entitled right to force Scotland to stay in the union, as far as I read it. 

Not to mention that I'm pretty sure a lot of husbands in your described scenario has asked their spouse to reconsider their decision to file for divorce, and it's not even like Scotland has even decided they want a divorce yet. So I don't really see the metaphor.     
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: August 08, 2014, 05:00:55 am
Yes, NEOS proposing FPTP seems really strange. Why support annihilation of their own party? Tender do you know what their reasoning behind their support of this is?
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 07, 2014, 08:19:11 pm
What's happened to M, S and V for them to drop off so suddenly (more or less)?

I have my theories, but they're just theories, so Tayya and Marbury might disagree with me. (It'll be a long response, but since you asked Hash) 

V enjoyed good numbers last year due to left-wing Greens and Social Democrats (such as my ex-boyfriend to use an example) thought the other two parties too moderate and close to the right, similarly to how it's been looking in many other European countries recently, but on a smaller scale. Now this was especially thanks in large part to the vivid debate on private actors in the health, education, and welfare sectors, and their large profits. After a few scandals, were it among other things turned out that one private daycare center had literally put their kids on a diet of bread and water to save money while the company was making profits, the Left Party, who've taken a strong principled stance to ban profits in the welfare sector and pledged to limit private enterprise in the field, soared.

However in recent months the issue has taken a backseat in the debate to other issues and not been as hotly debated. This coupled with the rise of FI, which is basically the Left Party with extra everything feminism slapped on, led by their skillful and inspiring former leader stealing their votes are probably the reason V has taken somewhat of a slump recently. But as FI seems to have started slipping in support it might mean the party will start to stabilize and even start to increase again.




S has also lost votes to FI, and to the Greens most certainly. Mainly because (I think) the fact that they will not take a stand on anything. S has been trying to be as still as possible in the boat, in order to neither offend their left-flank, nor potential moderate swing-voters. Instead they've simply been attacking the government on generic stuff, and given vague promises such as "Sweden shall have Europe's Lowest Unemployment by 2020." Now this worked very well for quite some time as S reestablished themselves after the Håkan Juholt debacle but as the election is drawing closer people have been starting to notice that they have very few actual proposals on what sort of politics they want to implement when back in government. Now this has not caused their supporters to be displeased with them, but it has been easy to tread over to one of the more inspiring centre-left parties. It's also important to not forget that S is still struggling with their image as grey, old-fashioned, power-hungry party, just this time it's not benefiting the right, but the rest of the left coalition.



M is by far the easiest to explain. The party is completely run out of ideological and political ideas and have completely lost the political initiative. I would go as far as to say that the Moderates aren't even running in the same election as the other seven parties, they have no idea what the issues of the day are, focusing their energy on questions and solutions that are far of the current political radar. Their trump card, the great trust the general public feels for Reinfeldt's, Borg's and Bildt's political competence is also losing its charm. Their devastatingly bad EP-campaign and their result in that election really accelerated their downfall by also giving them the Loser mark, and no swing-voter wants to vote for a loser.



Tl:dr- version:               

V's big winning issue isn't in the spot-light at the moment, and FI's stealing all their marbles.

S is too cautious and dropping to more inspiring and exciting options.

M is disillusioned, tired, and a group of big losers.         
97  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Denver gay bar in trouble for not letting in gay guy on: August 07, 2014, 12:28:28 pm
Should bear bars be forced to let in twinks?

I'd say they should let otters in, but that's were the line should be drawn. Tongue 
98  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Electoral Geographic splits in countries on: August 07, 2014, 11:55:39 am
In Sweden it's the left-wing North vs. the right-wing South.   
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 07, 2014, 11:38:40 am
Since I could not provide anything valuable on the new poll front, I'll instead offer this poll of polls graphic on how the parties' standing in polls have changed over the last year:



It's a bad bad time to be a Moderate!


100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: August 07, 2014, 09:38:52 am
So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

...look a few posts up Wink

Haha, I'm an idiot. Totally missed that Tayya had already posted the poll.
Damn it! Why must he be so quick. Tongue
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