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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Results Thread on: May 28, 2014, 03:45:23 am
Yepp.

Maybe the EAF gets the Sweden Democrats back on board somehow ...

Unlikely, some of the parties in there are a bit too controversial for them, I think.

I'm not really sure why UKIP are so negative towards SD. They're by no means more radical than the Danish People's Party, so if they can be accepted in EFD, and even ECR I'm not sure why Ferage has a problem with SD. Besides, if the Danes and Finns leave for ECR, won't EFD have to find new people to cooperate with in order to reach the 7 countries requirement?
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 27, 2014, 04:56:39 pm
F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Schyman is the least problem with F!. It should be remembered that she, back in her days as Left Party leader, cooperated for 9 years with Göran Persson, and they hated eachother. I mean really hated, you should hear some of the things they've said about eachother.

It's the other more dubious personalities in F! that would make life hard for our good friend Stefan. Let us not forget Tiina Rosenberg who lovingly exclaimed that all women who sleep with men are traitors of their gender.
78  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which of the Following Exists on the Atlas Forum? on: May 26, 2014, 04:51:58 pm
Are you in one of your upset modes today Hifly? Do you want a cookie and a blanket?
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 26, 2014, 01:23:32 pm
Man, I can't believe they accidentally projected the results of that one ward in southeastern Stockholm as the national results! Could you believe that, the Greens second? The Moderates at 13.6%? Both the Feminists and the Sweden Democrats getting in? Hah!

...seriously, yikes. I'd give so much money to have been a fly on the wall at the Moderate leadership meeting last night.

"If there's one thing this election makes clear, it's that people should stop questioning whether KD and C will survive the 4% line in September, and start asking whether the Moderates will or not. Maybe it'll be us who gives them tactical votes."
- Quote from the Malmö Centre Election Watch yesterday. (mostly a joke) 

Man this was a crazy election. If someone had predicted this result two weeks ago I would have thought that person belonged in an asylum. Considering the circumstances I'm not that dissatisfied with the results.

The most annoying thing is having to read my bobo friends rant about SD's result on facebook for the next month.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Results Thread on: May 26, 2014, 12:55:05 pm
If Fredrik Reinfeldt hadn't been the incumbent PM (and it wan's a bit too late to rock the boat before the General Election) yesterday's catastrophic results might have very well have sent him packing.



If (and they probably will) the Liberal-Democrats receive a bad beating in 2015, all he'll be remembered for is as a failure. That's not much of a future for him.


It's a hard business, politics. It's a very thin and delicate line between becoming a hero and a laughing-stock.   
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread on: May 26, 2014, 06:45:21 am
My prediction for Sweden's 20 seats.

Social Democrats - 30,2% (+5,8) - 7 (+1)
Moderate Party - 20,7% (+1,9) - 5 (+1)
Green Party - 14,2% (+3,2) - 3 (+1)
Liberal People's Party - 9,0% (-4,6) - 2 (-1)
Left Party - 6,0% (+0,3) - 1 (nc)
Sweden Democrats - 4,5% (+1,2) - 1 (+1)
Feminist Initiative - 4,4% (+2,2) - 1 (+1)
Centre - 3,6% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)
Christian Democrats - 3,5% (-1,2) - 0 (-1)
Pirate - 3,0% (-4,3) - 0 (-2)

others - 0,9

And here is mine:

Social Democrats - 26,8% (+2,4) - 6 (+/-)
Moderate Party - 19,3% (+0,5) - 4 (+/-)
Green Party - 15,3% (+4,3) - 3 (+1)
Liberal People's Party - 8,7% (-4,9) - 2 (-1)
Left Party - 7,0% (+1,3) - 2 (+1)
Sweden Democrats - 6,6% (+3,3) - 1 (+1)
Centre Party - 4,6% (-0,9) - 1 (+/-)
Feminist Initiative - 4,3% (+2,1) - 1 (+1)
Christian Democrats - 3,6% (-1,1) - 0 (-1)
Pirate Party - 2,5% (-4,6) - 0 (-2)
June List - 0,9% (-2,7) - 0 (+/-)
others - 0,4



I was closer. Tongue

Though we both made horrible predictions in retrospect.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Results Thread on: May 25, 2014, 07:44:25 am
Sweden is projected to have increased turn-out compared to 2009. It's estimated it'll be over 50% turn-out for the first time in a EP election over here.
83  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Do you find Crawfish dirty? on: May 25, 2014, 06:43:10 am
I find them delicious
84  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which of the Following Exists on the Atlas Forum? on: May 24, 2014, 01:04:12 pm
there is a Gay Mafia on this forum.

Pardon, but we actually prefer the term Velvet Mafia.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: May 24, 2014, 06:03:30 am
It's a bit late but since I worked for this website, I encourage you to check it out: http://www.euvox2014.eu/

I checked it out a few days ago. Interesting site. A few minor things that could have been fixed, but over-all one of the best "Which party do you align with" websites I've tried. Very good to hear a Atlas member was part  of working on it. Smiley
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: May 23, 2014, 05:00:50 am
Don't know if there's something scientific out there to analyze these situations, but I think weather could play at least a minor role.

Yeah I'm open to the idea that there might be two, three, or even as many as five,  slackers in Austria that might be so lazy some rain is the sole reason they can't bother to put on some pants and get themselves down to a polling station, and equally many mothers who might take their kids on a picnic in the beautiful weather and forgets to get home before polling closes. But that would have to be a very, very minor non-measurable effect. Tongue    


Thank you Italian-boy.
There we go, sunshine does not depress voter turn-out.

Can we now please leave this weather causes low-turnout speculation to sensationalist tabloid journalists that might or might not be French?
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: May 23, 2014, 03:02:42 am
For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

Oh c'mon! This must be the greatest political myth of all time. Have there ever been any actual proof that weather affect turn-out except in the most extreme weather conditions? Every election you hear reports that turn-out will be down because the weather was too nice, so people went out-side instead, or too bad, so people didn't want to leave home, or too mediocre, so people didn't get in the right mood to go and vote.

I've however never seen any scientific proof that there is even correlation, let alone cause, between a certain weather and a certain turn-out.   
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: May 23, 2014, 01:07:02 am
Last two polls from Sweden:

Ipsos:

S - 24,9%
M - 16,5%
MP - 13,8%
FP - 10,4%
V - 8,4%
SD - 6,9%
KD - 6,3%
C - 6,0%
F! - 4,5%
PP- 1,8%


Sifo:

S - 28,3%
M - 18,1%
MP - 12,5%
FP - 8,8%
SD - 8,6%
V - 6,6%
C - 5,3%
KD - 4,9%
F! - 4,3%
PP- 2,2%


The polls for this thing is all over the place. The only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain.

And that the Greens will do exceedingly well, and the Social Democrats will be the largest party.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 20, 2014, 06:14:18 pm
Skane South, in particular, as well as Stockholm but a bit less, seem quite swingy. Is this just because they're the most populous areas, or is there something else ?

In the case of Skåne South I'd argue that the huge swings probably have more to do with a huge and rapid political realignment in recent years due to the gentrification of Malmö's suburbs and exurbs. Places like Svedala, Kävlinge, and Trelleborg which up until and including 2002 had been bastions for the left as port- and industrial towns has since the construction of the Öresund's Bridge and the growth of Malmö been reborn in the shape of upper-middle class commuter towns for white-collor workers in Copenhagen and Malmö, which has also changed the voting of these places. (In short it's turning into a minor version of suburban/exurban Stockholm)

Not that there aren't swingy elements in the constituency that could not also be at play. The constituency's largest city is after-all Lund, with Scandinavia's largest University and thus student population. Students in Sweden are a pretty unpredictable bunch, and their left turn in 2002 probably did its fair bit in making the constituency swing so much to the left in '02.

As for Stockholm (the city, not the surrounding middle-class djungle) it is well documented by political pundits as having the most movable voters. So in that case it is certainly true. Probably as you say, in large part due to its urban nature.   
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: May 20, 2014, 12:49:31 pm
Better Together's is here and Yes Scotland is here.

The Better Together one is rather lame, but the Scotland Yes one is probably one of the most obnoxious political ads I've seen. If it was any more in your face about and cheesy about its message it would be dangerous to people's health.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 20, 2014, 12:37:49 pm
2006 -> 2010:


You can view the key here.


Top 5 swing/shift to the right

Skåne South = + 10,0%
Västra Götaland West = + 7,1%
Skåne West = + 6,9%
Södermanland = + 6,7%
Kalmar = + 6,3%

Top 5 swing/shift to the left

Västerbotten = + 3,0%
Gotland = + 2,3%
Stockholm City = + 1,8%
Jämtland = + 0,3%
Norbotten = +/- 0,0%


Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 20, 2014, 12:37:09 pm
2002 -> 2006:


You can view the key here.


Top 5 swing/shift to the right

Stockholm County = + 16,2%
Stockholm City = + 16,0%
Skåne South = + 15,5%
Malmö = + 14,5%
Uppsala = + 14,3%

Top 5 smallest swing/shift from the left

Norbotten = - 3,9%
Värmland = - 5,3%
Kalmar = - 5,6%
Västerbotten = - 6,3%
Västra Götaland East = - 6,5%


Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 20, 2014, 12:36:38 pm
For the good fun of all of you I've spent the afternoon making maps, showing voter swings/shifts by constituency in the past three elections. Naturally it's centre-right (M+C+FP+KD) vs. centre-left (S+MP+V).

1998 -> 2002:


You can view the key here.


Top 5 swing/shift to the right

Gävleborg = + 6,6%
Norbotten = + 5,6%
Värmland = + 4,9%
Västerbotten = + 3,2%
Jämtland = + 2,4%

Top 5 swing/shift to the left

Stockholm City = + 6,3%
Gotland = + 5,8%
Skåne South = + 4,5%
Malmö = + 3,4%
Jönköping = + 3,4%


Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 20, 2014, 05:58:08 am
SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them. Wink

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie. Roll Eyes

He was certainly not a pinko commie, not sure where you're getting that from me.

He is clearly sarcastic Gustaf. The rolling eyes on the end is suppose to be an indicator you know... Wink
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belgian elections, 2014 on: May 19, 2014, 02:46:38 pm
Good God, not again!

How long will it take them to form a government this time? 
96  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: gray hair.... on: May 19, 2014, 01:37:05 pm
If you're older than 30 and have enough hair on your head to be worried about its colour, you should consider yourself a lucky person.

 
97  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: If "God" is a person... on: May 19, 2014, 01:32:12 pm
It's a great shame we don't retain Pantheon of gods in popular psyche. You found all sorts of personas from male to female, transgender and more.

Nordic mythology actually has similarities to really weird fetish fanfiction. You have male Gods being impregnated by stallions and other really strange stuff going on. No Adam and Eve, and keep it in your pants there.   
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 19, 2014, 01:23:56 pm
Branding the Swedish left as extreme or non-extreme in a international perspective is really simplifying a complicated issue, especially if you're doing so with the Social Democrats. If you look at the tax levels that all three of the left-wing parties in this country wants, sure they are certainly extreme compared to any other non-nordic country. But that is not all there is to it.

If we look at the currently hot issue of austerity, for example, the Social Democrats have since the days of Persson had a staunchly pro-austerity position. Something completely foreign to many left-wingers. Austerity is supposed to be something you have forced upon you by mean German right-wingers, not yourself passionately advocate for. In that particular issue they probably rival the SDP for most right-wing left-wingers in Europe at least.

So it is really a mixed bag that you can't easily place as what is considered centre-right in one country, is considered centre-left in another.    

But now, after having (sort of) defended SAP I'll need to have a long long shower while crying in a fetal position. Excuse me.  
99  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: May 18, 2014, 03:12:46 am
French male teens appear to be a progressive bunch. At least in Nantes.

Quote from: The Local
Schoolboys in the western French city of Nantes took a stand against sexism on Friday by ditching their trousers and donning skirts for the day. The day of action has provoked outrage from conservative groups who plan to protest.

http://www.thelocal.fr/20140516/in-pictures-french-schoolboys-wear-skirts-to-class
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 17, 2014, 05:51:19 pm
Failure to get into the European parliament could also lead to a drop in support.

I really believe that is the crucial factor actually. If they get in they will be ensured continued media attention and hype until September, and people will start to consider them as a real option. If they fail to get in on the other hand, people will start to feel much more unsure about their chances, and they might soon be drowned out by the other parties and other issues.   
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