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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 29, 2014, 02:54:55 pm
Hilariously, FI nearly won a precinct in Södermalm (17.7% in Högalid 8 Bergsund N: Social Democrats just pipped them with 18.3%).

They did win this precinct in Malmö.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: PR with combination of party list and personal vote on: September 29, 2014, 02:35:26 pm
In Austria you have a party list, but with preferential candidate voting.

In theory, if a candidate who's let's say ranked 50th on the list, starts a preference voting campaign and that candidate receives a ton of votes, then that person will get ranked 1st on the list after the election (unless some other candidate has more preference votes).

This is also how it works in Sweden.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 27, 2014, 06:57:13 am
SKÅNE
(S+V+MP) vs. (M+C+FP+KD)

2002:




2006:



2010:



2014:



79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 26, 2014, 10:27:46 am


What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.   

That's the pragmatic and careful approach - and Löfven is a very pragmatic and careful man, but there is the alternative of promoting your own policy and letting the opposition shoot it down, giving them the responsibility for a political stalemare and then taking things to the voters.
Also, in this scenario SD would be forced to either back the governments socioeconomic policies or be identified as economic right wingers, which would harm them.

I don't really think that strategy would work in Sweden, mostly because in difference to Denmark, the Prime Minister is not in control of early elections. He/She can't just jump on the first carriage to the palace and ask the monarch to dissolve parliament when it feels right. Early elections only happen if the government fail to pass their budget, or the Prime Minister is defeated in a Vote of No Confidence, and the Speaker fails to nominate a new Prime Minister.

The opposition is obviously not going to oust a Social Democratic PM if it looks as if the government would gain by it, and it would look too opportunistic if the centre-left ousted themselves by passing a Vote of No Confidence against their own Prime Minister.

So the tactic would require 4 years of stalemate and might not even pay of in the end, as the centre-right is obviously going to try the blame game right back at them. And as you note, Swedish voters tend to like pragmatism (at least in theory, if not so much in practice).

There's no point in winning elections if you don't try to form a government afterwards. Particularly when failing to do so could result in a political crisis that you'd be blamed for.
   

Also this!
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 26, 2014, 08:48:12 am


<3


Quote
How do you mean? The obvious answer is that Skåne and Halland are pretty rich areas, just like Stockholm, and thus very predictably vote more right-wing.

How about Bohuslen? Is it above average as well?

Yes, Bohuslän basically consists of 1) Evangelical Fishers (Votes KD), 2) Wealthy Gothenburg suburbs, and 3) Upper-crust coastal vacation towns.

What an idiot. SAP deserves to die at this point.

Well, to be fair to SAP (which is not something I'm not very fond of being) the centre-left is 16 seats short of a majority, so it's not as if they have very much of a choice at this point.   
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 24, 2014, 08:15:44 am
Scandinavia and the World weights in on the election. 

82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 21, 2014, 01:22:23 am
I think there is something wrong with the sovereignty-integration dimension, I will check it again.

Concerning the Left-Right dimension, here is how it looks like if I try to split it up:



I don't know Sweden politics enough to really analyse it. Concerning the difference between V and FI, there is a small difference on economic issues, but the main gap is on social issues, which is a bit weird at first sight. Apparently it's because of completely opposite positions on drugs. Is is true or a mistake in the survey?


The survey in general seems a bit fishy if you ask me. (Especially considering the June List) I don't know that much about either V or FI's politic positions when it comes to drugs to say in that particular case, though it seems strange that such a (from a Swedish perspective) minor issue would  affect the left-right scale in such a drastic manner.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 20, 2014, 10:32:54 am
No comment on my charts? :/

They were very beautiful charts, though I'm slightly unsure over your decisson to use the same line for both New Democracy and SD.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 12:15:08 pm

Yeah I see some problems with this one.

Fi's economic policies are very close to V, they should be much closer each other on the left-right scale than you have put them. FP should be the most EU positive out of all parties (they're federalist) and C should be the most EU-skeptical out of the Alliance parties.

The June List doesn't actually want to leave the European Union, so they are by no means more EU skeptical than V, they're also founded by former Social Democrats, so they should neither be the furthest right on this scale. Putting SD to the right of M is also... very questionable.

Why is the June List even on this btw? They're as good as non-existent these days. They only got eight votes in total this election.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 11:41:56 am
So now that the final votes have been tallied we can see that some important people have lost their parliamentry seats:

Maria Larsson, Minister for the Elderly and Public Health, and Christian Democratic Deputy Leader lost her seat in Jönköping, as did another Christian Democrat, Minister of Housing, Stefan Attefall.

Anna Karin Hatt, Minister of Energy, fell short in retaining the Centre Party seat in Södermanland.

The Moderates' Party Secretary, Kent Persson, will leave together with the Party Secretary of the People's Party, Nina Larsson. And the Economic Spokespersons of both KD, Anders Sellström, and FP, Carl B. Hamilton will also be forced to leave.

The Christian Democrats especially have had their ranks savaged by this election. Pretty good news for Göran Hägglund in that there will be very few people left to challenge him for the leadership. 



 

As much as I like to be smug about every superior quality in all things Scandinavian, and I do like that very much...

Yes but you also like to point out everything you dislike about Sweden, so it's not really that much out of character. Wink


86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 01:06:33 pm
No one would really benefit from early elections.

Well, there's actually a good chancee Jimmie Åkesson would...
But yeah, the other party leaders are well aware that they don't want another election at this moment. Still, when did common sense stop mass hysteria in the press?

Yes, thank you! I didn't realize that triggered a new election. Though, I was under the impression that they were more to the left on government/economic issues, is it certain that the right bloc's budget would be the "least bad" to them?

No it's not certain at all. Quite honestly, as Jimmie Åkesson himself said, it's most unlikely that any buget presented by the other parties would be considered acceptable by SD. But, once again, it would be a shame if that kept the press from having some good old hysteria. 
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 12:45:15 pm
The only sort of shocker is that the Sweden Democrats opened up for the idea of hypothetically supporting the "least bad" budget in a upcoming budget vote. Something that could end up bringing down the incoming government. This naturally caused a hysteric frenzy among the assembled journalists who seemed to be willing to declare early elections then and there, despite Jimmie Åkesson himself calling the scenario very unlikely.

Why would that potentially bring down the incoming government?

A failure to pass a budget in Sweden does not result in a government shut down, as it would in America. Instead the government is forced to resign and early elections are held. In other words, if SD would for some reason choose to vote for the Alliance's shadow budget instead of abstaining, that would mean the government's budget would have less votes than another budget and thus wouldn't pass, which means they'd be forced to resign.

Hope that is a clear answer to the question. Smiley 
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 12:13:25 pm
Meetings with the Speaker has continued through-out the day, and Christian Democratic leader Göran Hägglund was the last to leave the Speaker twenty minutes ago.

No real surprises has turned up. We'll get a minority coalition between the Social Democrats and Greens, with support on budget and economic issues by the Left Party. The three minor centre-right parties (C, FP, KD) have all said that they won't support or co-operate with the new regime on budgetary or economic issues, but are open to broad across the aisle agreements on certain issues. It is as anyone has reasonably expected.

The only sort of shocker is that the Sweden Democrats opened up for the idea of hypothetically supporting the "least bad" budget in a upcoming budget vote. Something that could end up bringing down the incoming government. This naturally caused a hysteric frenzy among the assembled journalists who seemed to be willing to declare early elections then and there, despite Jimmie Åkesson himself calling the scenario very unlikely.


The Left performed better for LANDSTINGs: 48.1, resulting in 9 overall maj.s of seats, 4 with local parties. 4 with rel. maj.s (and SD as kingmakers [but only in theory]), Stockholm&Halland could go either left&C or All.&MP, but Jönköping has a hypothetical maj. of S&V&SD, thus leading to left&C (or KD?).
 

Not really sure what you're trying say there Ebner... but negotiations for leadership of the counties (landsting) are ongoing. It's yet unclear who will govern in them, even in counties were S+V+MP have their own majority. Regional and local politics are quite different in Sweden... strange coalitions are no rare things. Just this morning I read that in the Social Democratic stronghold of Överkalix, the Moderates and the Left Party will enter into a coalition together to overthrow S.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 17, 2014, 05:07:32 am
The Speaker of Parliament, Per Westerberg (M), is holding consultative meetings with represents for the eight parliamentary parties today in order to carve out possibilities for a new government.

In Sweden it is the Speaker who officially proposes the new Prime Minister to the chamber for their approval.

Stefan Löfvén was first out to visit the speaker, and told him that he wanted to form government as Prime Minister.

He was followed by Moderate whip and group leader Anna Kindberg Batra, who told the Speaker that there were no alternatives for a centre-right government and that it should rest upon the red-green opposition to form a stable alternative. The press mostly gave her questions on whether she'd stand for the leadership of the party later in the spring. (Which she of course refused to answer at the current moment)

Green co-leaders, Gustav Fridolin and Åsa Romson visited the Speaker together and told him they intended to form government together with Stefan Löfvén, and that they would enter budget negotiations with the Left Party, but also want a broader parliamentary cooperation across the aisle with C and FP later in the term.

The meetings with the speaker will continue after lunch, with Jimmie Åkesson being the next one being called for questioning at 1 pm.       

These meetings are mostly a formality, but it will be interesting to hear what SD and V has to say, especially about the coming budget. Stay tuned
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 16, 2014, 03:08:36 pm
having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

Come to canada where we have a dictatorial Conservative majority government that only 39% of the electorate voted for...Margaret Thatcher never won more than 42% of the vote in the UK and it never stopped her from ramming her policies down everyone's throats.

Yes, but there's a big difference between a PR and FPTP system. Thatcher always had a majority of MPs, and Harper had a decent plurality of MPs. The government Löfvén is proposing would have less support in parliament than the main political alternative. I have a hard time seeing Thatcher holding on if Labour had more MPs than her, and Harper holding on if the Liberals had been bigger.

Not that it will be impossible. We should remember that Sweden had a government representing only 11% of the voters, only 35 years ago, and that was before the simplified budget rules that make it easier for minority governments to hold on.

 

 
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 12:14:55 pm


And leading electoral coalition, same warnings about provisional results etc.

Speaking of which, it's time to add another election to this count.

2006:

Constituencies won by the Alliance by margin

1 Stockholm County (+23,08%)
2 Stockholm City (+15,93%)
3 Halland (+14,79%)
4 Skåne South (+14,62)
5 V. Götaland West (+9,85%)
6 Uppsala (+9,20%)
7 Jönköping (+8,76%)
8 Skåne North & East (+7,54%) Grin This is where I live
9 Skåne West (+5,72%)
10 Kronoberg (+4,48%)
11 V. Götaland South (+2,90%)
12 Gothenburg (+2,31%)
13 Gotland (+1,90%)
14 V. Götaland East (+0,46%)

Constituencies won by the Red-Greens by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,78%) Bloody Scary Sad
2 Västerbotten (+19,83%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,69%)
4 Gävleborg (+13,96%)
5 Örebro (+13,70%)
6 Jämtland (+11,11%)
7 Blekinge (+10,65%)
8 Värmland (+9,62%)
9 Dalarna (+9,07%)
10 Södermanland (+9,02%)
11 Västmanland (+6,22%)
12 Kalmar (+5,54%)
13 V. Götaland North (+3,47%)
14 Malmö (+3,07%)
15 Östergötland (+1,06%)


2010:

Constituencies with Alliance plurality by margin

1 Stockholm County (+26,15%)
2 Skåne South (+24,43%)
3 Halland (+20,37%)
4 V Götaland West (+17,04%)
5 Stockholm City (+14,00%)
6 Skåne North & East (+13,18%)
7 Jönköping (+13,02%)
8 Skåne West (+12,76)
9 Kronoberg (+10,39%)
10 Uppsala (+10,25%)
11 V Götaland South (+6,54%)
12 V Götaland East (+4,55%)
13 Gothenburg (+4,23%)
14 V Götaland North (+2,64%)
15 Malmö (+2,12%)
16 Östergötland (+1,95%)
17 Kalmar (+0,74%)

Constituencies with Red-Green plurality by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,77%)
2 Västerbotten (+22,85%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,35%)
4 Gävleborg (+11,82%)
5 Jämtland (+11,62%)
6 Örebro (+9,17%)
7 Dalarna (+7,03%)
8 Värmland (+6,10%)
9 Blekinge (+4,32%)
10 Västmanland (+3,57%)
11 Södermanland (+2.35%)
12 Gotland (+0,40%)

2014:

Constituencies with Alliance plurality by margin

1 Stockholm County (+13,7%)
2 Skåne South (+8,6%)
3 Halland (+8,0%)
4 V Götaland West (+5,3%)
5 Stockholm City (+4,1%)
6 Jönköping (+1,2%)

Constituencies with Red-Green plurality by margin

1 Norrbotten (+38,9%)
2 Västerbotten (+30,0%)
3 Västernorrland (+26,7%)
4 Gävleborg (+18,9%)
5 Jämtland (+17,9%)
6 Örebro (+15,2%)
7 Värmland (+14,5%)
8 Blekinge (+14,4%)
9 Dalarna (+12,7%)
10 Malmö (+11,5)
11 Västmanland (+10,8%)
12 Södermanland (+10%)
13 Kalmar (+7,5%)
14 V Götaland North (+7,0%)
15 V Götaland East (+5,9%)
16 Östergötland (+5,6%)
17 Gotland (+3,8%)
18 Gothenburg (+3,6%)
19 Kronoberg (+2,9%)
20 Uppsala (+2,9%)
21 Skåne West (+2,9%)
22 V Götaland South (+2,6%)
23 Såne North & East (+1,9%)


92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 11:10:40 am
This thread is getting way too sage for its own good.

What do you expect? Its a Sweden thread without any Swedes to give us some proper analysis (most of them are probably drowning their sorrows, Gustaf might actually be celebrating). Idle speculation, sagery and rhetorical grand standing is bound to fill the void.

I've bought a huge bag of candy to devour them. Comfort eating is the way. Don't worry though, I'll post something more noteworthy (analysis, maps), later tonight or tomorrow. 
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 07:11:30 am
Why is it that Stockholm votes so much more to the right than the rest of Sweden while in Denmark Copenhagen is much more leftwing than the rest of Denmark

Are? you? for? real??? Have you seriously forgotten that you've asked this question about 4 times before, and already gotten the same answer from different posters over and over. If you do not suffer from amnesia I have a hard time thinking you can have missed that.

]

Thank you!

I may have posed this question ONCE several years ago if that, I don't why you feel the need to be insulting. If you want sift through the archive of every single thing I have ever posted on this site then please do and show me where I have "asked the exact same question" FOUR times. And BTW there are some topics that merit being rehashed every four or five years (if not more)

Don't worry, he did the same with me when I brought up the ballot-thing again yesterday ... Wink

I do not count on people remembering the answer to every question I answered four years ago, especially not if it relates to how ballots in Sweden works, but DL has, quite literally gotten his question about why Stockholm is more centre-right than most European capitals answered in every thread that some-how relates to Swedish elections.  There's even a discussion on it in the Denmark 2011 thread.

As Lurker said, it's the same discussion between the same people over and over again.

94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 15, 2014, 03:11:22 am
Why is it that Stockholm votes so much more to the right than the rest of Sweden while in Denmark Copenhagen is much more leftwing than the rest of Denmark

Are? you? for? real??? Have you seriously forgotten that you've asked this question about 4 times before, and already gotten the same answer from different posters over and over. If you do not suffer from amnesia I have a hard time thinking you can have missed that.

I know you lived in Stockholm for a while in your youth, and that you have this very romantacised picture of the city, which is very hard to reconcile with the politics of the place. But you really need to stop asking this question if you're never going to be willing to accept the answer.

 
Ah, the old discussion of why Stockholm is right-wing (it wasn't last night, actually...). No offense, but I feel like DL is the one who asks that question every single time, with the same people replying and the same counter-arguments from DL. Tongue


Thank you!
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:32:16 pm
Also where are municipal results posted?

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/K/rike/index.html
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:19:46 pm
Reinfeldt has announced his resignation.

Both as PM and party leader.

Bastard. Wink
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:19:19 pm
Reinfeldt just announced his resignation, both as Prime Minister and leader of the Moderate Party
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 14, 2014, 04:06:48 pm
The election dates are fixed. So no matter what happen we will have an election in September of 2018. But early elections are still possible, but the term of those elections only last until the ordinary election would have been held. That is why the 1960 election is not an early election. It was the ordinary election following the 1956 election.

It seems one can be a candidate in two districts?

Yes, Jimmie Åkesson is a candidate in every constituency.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 14, 2014, 09:37:13 am
Word on the street (and by street i mean precinct officers) is that turn-out seems to be higher this year than in 2010. Lines are being reported in polling stations where there's been no lines before, despite the fact that early voting is breaking record numbers once again. Taking this into account, it wouldn't be completely out of question we get 86%-87% turn-out.

   
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 14, 2014, 09:27:02 am
Is it true that in Sweden there are piles of ballots in the polling station for each party and you can draw a ballot for the party you are voting for ?

So, basically everyone knows for which party you are voting, depending which ballot you take (unless you take ballots for every party with you into the voting booth) ?

You asked this question four years ago as well Tender, I'm disappointed you do not remember.

The answer is yes and yes. People who want to keep their vote secret bring their own ballot papers or take one from every party.

Isn't this a terrible waste of paper you might ask. Yes it is, but Sweden has a very big forestry and paper industry so see it as one big subsidy every four years. Wink
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