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April 26, 2017, 04:42:33 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN: Flynn broke law by taking $$ from Russia, Turkey. on: April 25, 2017, 10:39:35 am
Quote
Since he resigned, Flynn has retained a lawyer and has offered to testify in exchange for immunity from prosecution -- an offer nobody has apparently taken him up on.

LOL. Lock him up!
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Florida State Sen. calls collegues "asshole", "bitch", and "n**gers" on: April 21, 2017, 02:59:26 pm
This will be an interesting special election, Clinton won 57-40 but Rubio also won it 50-47. Definitely a toss up and both sides will spend heavily.
Florida Dems will lose because they're the FL Dems.

Until proven otherwise, this ^

Yep I agree but this will be an interesting test for new FDP Chair Stephen Bittel.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Florida State Sen. calls collegues "asshole", "bitch", and "n**gers" on: April 21, 2017, 12:25:50 pm
This will be an interesting special election, Clinton won 57-40 but Rubio also won it 50-47. Definitely a toss up and both sides will spend heavily.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What are the most over and under rated demographic trends today? on: April 19, 2017, 09:41:07 pm
Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

I know you probably want to believe this but no, social conservatism is dying.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Virginia Democrats say victory in obscure local race signals end of Trump. on: April 19, 2017, 08:51:10 pm
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

No one cares who the clerk of court is. This was just a bunch of people who want their "I voted every time" sticker picking a name at random. Nothing to see here, move along.

Well the Republican was house majority whip who outspent the Democrat 6 to 1.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chaffetz not running for re-election on: April 19, 2017, 10:35:18 am
Lock him up!
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:51:29 pm
The card with the error has been found. Results will presumable begin again?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:22:50 pm
Bob Gray's twitter endorsement of Karen Handel included the words "we wish her godspeed". That doesn't sound confidence inspiring.

I mean he called her a career political at every opportunity so I really don't think he cares for her too much.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 10:16:10 pm
So D's currently have 51.2% of the total vote. Total D vote could be >50%.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:50:11 pm
How does GA-07 compare to GA-06? Would that seat be as winnable? I'm thinking more for 2018.

GA-7 is somewhat more Republican and didn't trend as hard due to being more exurban.  Plus, incumbent races do not present the same pickup opportunities that open seats do.

Regarding the incumbent status, of course. I was just curious, thanks for the input.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:42:54 pm
How does GA-07 compare to GA-06? Would that seat be as winnable? I'm thinking more for 2018.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:33:42 pm
All of Cobb is finally in, Ossoff at 50.3%
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:29:50 pm
@DKElections Former head of Trump's national diversity coalition Bruce LeVell at 0% right now. Long titles don't aways indicate importance #GA06
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:23:54 pm
Also a lot of GOP posters are assuming all GOP votes will go to Handel (which, might not be true - people could stay home or cast their ballot for Ossoff [far less likely])

Handel is disliked by the Bob Gray crowd, his entire campaign was attacking her. I could see some of them staying home as well as some of Judson Hill's crew.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 09:15:50 pm
and ? the goal is not to beat trump, the goal is to get 50%+

A goal is to get 50%+. That would have been amazing, and few people projected it here.

If he's scoring at 48 or 49%, that's a very good position to be in heading into the runoff. Better than the low 40s showing in the polls where he'd never make up the gap to 50.



you are right but 2 hours ago, expectations were that ossoff would win without runoff. And 2 months are an eternity in politics...

That's patently false. The "expectations" were not he'd win OUTRIGHT. The expectations were a big shoulder shrug and the HOPE was he'd win.

He's just being a hack.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:45:26 pm
On one hand, I want Ossoff to win 50% + 1 to make this whole night worth staying up for.

On the other hand, for political reasons, I really don't.

It's not even 10PM.... lol
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:34:24 pm
When (if) progressives ever take power, we need to tax areas like this out of existence.

Metro Atlanta?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:31:05 pm
I love how Bob Gray is getting crushed. The TrumpBots are shook!
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:29:34 pm
Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict  37s38 seconds ago
More
 PROJECTION: #GA06 is headed to a 6/20 runoff between Jon Ossoff (D) & Karen Handel (R). @CookPolitical still rates race a Toss Up.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:22:45 pm
#GA06 67% DeKalb in, Ossoff +2 over HRC, 37% Cobb in, Ossoff +7 over HRC. NO Elec Day vote from Fulton in. Looks like upper 40s for Ossoff.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:15:03 pm
About 20% of E-Day precincts in. Ossoff at 57%, but most of friendly DeKalb in. Fulton still just earlies #GA06
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:10:44 pm
DeKalb still barley in.

Is Dekalb expected to be more favorable for Ossoff?

Yes it's the most D county
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:09:59 pm
So far Bob Gray is getting demolished... that's surprising.

Gray was the most Trumpian candidate.

Yes but I figured because so many establishment R's were split they would all gravitate to him.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 08:08:01 pm
So far Bob Gray is getting demolished... that's surprising.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 07:47:14 pm
I can't believe Judson Hill gave up a State Senate seat for this...
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