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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Survey USA: Crist's Lead Expanding on: July 22, 2014, 04:45:01 pm
Quinnipiac will have a poll out tomorrow, we'll see how that compares to this
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. David Jolly (R-FL) announces SSM support on: July 22, 2014, 03:02:31 pm
RINO Jolly waited until AFTER he got elected and AFTER
We at the grassroots level helped him win.

Supporting marriage equality does not make you a RINO.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 22, 2014, 02:32:53 pm
Quote
In FL Governor's Duel, Democrat Crist Now In the Spotlight, Democrat Crist Now In The Lead - Newly Atop Republican Scott in Dramatic Swing:
Charlie Crist made news last week when he named a running mate, and that appears to resonate with Florida's likely voters, who now have Crist 6 points atop Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 40%, according to WFLA-TV's latest tracking poll in the contest.

2 weeks ago, Crist trailed Scott by 2. As Crist has enjoyed nonstop media attention over the past 5 days, which happen to coincide with SurveyUSA's field period for this survey, Crist's poll numbers benefited as well. In 8 WFLA-TV / SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 04/15/14, Crist has led on 5 occasions, though never by as much as the 6 points he does today. Scott has led in 3 of the 8 tracking polls, though never by more than 2 percentage points.

* Among women, Crist had led by 3, now leads by 10, a gain of 7 points.
* Among men, Crist had trailed by 7, now is tied, a gain of 7.
* Among moderates, a key constituency for any Democrat who hopes to win elected office, Crist leads by 22 points, up from 13 points 2 weeks ago.
* Among Independents, Scott and Crist are effectively tied, a 10 point improvement for Crist poll-on-poll.
* The 08/26/14 FL Primary has not been held yet, and Crist has not yet won his party's nomination.
* After the primary, 2 months of intense campaigning remain before voting begins; these poll numbers can and will change during those 60 days.

Crosstabs here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9879b1f3-f54d-4ae5-ba27-5a1b5207710a
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 22, 2014, 11:18:10 am
I haven't seen the actual poll but according to WFLA twitter Crist has opened a 6% lead. Keep in mind the last time WFLA polled- around July 8th- Scott led 45-43 which was taken just before Crist aired his first ad.

Quote
KeithCate @WFLAKeith  ·  2h
@WFLA tracking poll has @CharlieCrist leading @ScottforFlorida 46% to 40%. Breaking it down with @WFLALauren tonight. #Florida #governor

Is this Crist's LT Gov selection bounce?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. David Jolly (R-FL) announces SSM support on: July 21, 2014, 07:59:44 pm
Pinellas County has always been home to sensible Republicans. I didn't expect Jolly to do something like this but I'm very happy he did.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SC-Rasmussen: Sen. Graham (R) up 19 on: July 11, 2014, 04:58:52 pm
Interesting timing: Thomas Ravenel to submit US Senate petition signatures Monday

http://www.thestate.com/2014/07/11/3559780/thomas-ravenel-to-submit-us-senate.html?sp=/99/132/
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Scott leading by 2 on: July 11, 2014, 09:34:10 am
Funny how Crist is winning Cubans by a 57-29 margin but he's winning non-Cuban hispanics 49-41. Usually it would be the other way around for the Democrat.

Also, will Rick Scott really win 20% of African Americans? I find that hard to believe, but who knows
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: June 23, 2014, 11:04:44 am
Here's a link to an article on it: http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/149697

This could be a big deal if it becomes widely known and is used effectively in ads.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, SUSA: Great Scott in the lead on: May 27, 2014, 05:05:24 pm
4.3% MoE so this is- and will be- a close race.

Additionally, Scott has already spent $10 million on TV ads(both Pro-Scott and negative Crist) while Crist hasn't gone on air.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: March 18, 2014, 10:23:45 am
Quote
Florida Dems say Scott campaign broke fundraising law...if confirmed, it could result in a fine of as much as $82 million.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/gubernatorial/florida-dems-say-scott-campaign-broke-fundraising-law/2170660

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 13, 2014, 07:01:23 pm
Just got a robocall from the DCCC(I'm a FL13 voter) that asked what my main issues were when deciding my vote. I wonder if they're trying to form a platform for November based on FL13? They also asked my fav/unfav for each candidate.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:11:49 pm
28 of 225 Precincts Reporting
        Percent   Votes
David W. Jolly (REP)      46.36%   63,054
Alex Sink (DEM)      48.38%   65,797
Lucas Overby (LPF)      5.07%   6,892
WRITE-IN      0.20%   270
             Total 136,013
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:07:52 pm

Absentee Votes:

David W. Jolly (REP)   59,950      
Alex Sink (DEM)   62,978      
Lucas Overby (LPF)   6,629      
WRITE-IN    262   
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 03:55:57 pm
The turnout numbers seem so far seem to fit the Jolly "win" model (about 170K total votes cast), with about 140K so far, rather than the 200K number that favors Sink, so ...

What numbers are you using? At 4:30 the SOE announced 8.8% ED turnout with 27.5% EV/AB turnout for a total of 36.3%. There are 460,600 FL13 voters eligible, so approx. 167k have cast ballots so far.

I think it'll be close.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: February 12, 2014, 11:50:24 pm
Tampa Bay Times poll:

Sink 42%
Jolly 35%
Overby 4%


Among Independents:
Sink 33%
Jolly 27%
Overby 9%

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/poll-slight-lead-for-sink-over-jolly-in-pinellas-congressional-race/2165327

16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: FL-GOV: Crist backs end to Cuba embargo on: February 12, 2014, 03:42:34 pm
This is really a nonissue but it separates him from Gov Scott which is what he needs.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / FL-UFlorida: Crist +7 on: February 05, 2014, 01:16:19 pm
Quote
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — A poll of registered voters in Florida by the Bob Graham Center for Public Service at the University of Florida in collaboration with UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research revealed high interest in Florida’s governor’s race, with 95 percent of likely voters reporting either “a great deal of interest” (66 percent) or “a fair amount of interest” (29 percent).

“For months now, political analysts have been describing Florida’s 2014 governor’s race as the top race in the nation. The only question has been whether Floridians are as interested in the race as national election forecasters are,” Susan MacManus, political science professor at the University of South Florida, said. “Now we know they are, and it’s only February.”

The poll also found that 47 percent of likely voters would vote for Democratic candidate Charlie Crist if the election were held today, while 40 percent would vote for Republican incumbent Rick Scott. In a matchup with U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, 46 percent would vote for Nelson, a Democrat, and 42 percent would vote for Scott.

In a race against former state Sen. Nan Rich, 41 percent would vote for Scott and 36 percent would vote for Rich, a Democrat.

Sixty-three percent of respondents approved of Crist’s tenure as governor, and 27 percent expressed disapproval. When asked about Scott’s performance, 45 percent expressed approval, and 46 percent expressed disapproval.                                                                                                                                        

The poll also asked respondents about their opinions on the candidates’ qualifications. Notable results include:

55 percent believe Crist is honest and ethical; 51 percent believe the same for Scott.
53 percent believe Crist understands the problems of people like them; 39 percent believe that Scott does.
53 percent believe Crist knows how to improve Florida’s economy; 52 percent believe Scott does.

Survey results are based on data collected from 1,006 telephone surveys of registered voters conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 1, with a 3 percent margin of error.

The center is tracking public opinion on the current field of gubernatorial candidates and issues that will be considered by the Florida Legislature during its 2014 session.

Polling results on legislative issues to be released in late February will include:

allowing Las Vegas-style casinos for gambling;
expanding Medicaid;
implementing a state sales tax for Internet retail;
allowing undocumented students to receive in-state tuition at Florida’s public colleges and universities.
Results also will include approval numbers for the Florida Legislature and public opinion on the Affordable Care Act.

“We are closely following the horse race for governor and the critical issues to be debated in Tallahassee,” said Emma Humphries, assistant in citizenship at the Bob Graham Center. “We believe it’s important to get a pulse on Floridians, and the center is well positioned to do so.”

The Bob Graham Center for Public Service is a community of students, scholars and politically engaged citizens, devoted to enhanced citizenship; the training of current and future public and civic leaders who can identify problems and spearhead change; and the development of policy on issues of importance to Florida, the United States and the global community. This survey was developed and analyzed by the center under the advice and consultation of Geoff Garin of Hart Research Associates and Kristen Soltis Anderson of The Winston Group.

http://news.ufl.edu/2014/02/05/election-survey/
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Gravis: Crist +3 on: February 05, 2014, 01:14:23 pm

The medical marijuana amendment is way up- 57/31.

It must hit 60% to pass.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressman Trey Radel (R-FL-19) charged with cocaine possession on: November 19, 2013, 05:09:41 pm
Is that what he meant when he said:
Quote
“Immediately, hip-hop artists did what artists have been doing for centuries – they opened my eyes up to a whole new world.”

http://www.buzzfeed.com/treyradel/trey-radel-hip-hop-conservative-ah8y
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: November 01, 2013, 04:20:41 pm
Charlie is in!

From Twitter:
Quote
@SaintPetersblog 8m
Charlie Crist has officially filed to run for Governor of Florida, according to the Florida Department of State
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressman Bill Young(FL-13) has NOT passed away. on: October 29, 2013, 11:18:54 pm
Good news for Democrats, Alex Sink is in.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/alex-sink-announcement/2149702
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressman Bill Young(FL-13) has NOT passed away. on: October 17, 2013, 01:15:20 pm
From twitter: "@learyreports: "Rep. C. W. Bill Young's condition turned for the worse over night and he is gravely ill," a spokesman says. Prognosis is "guarded.""
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressman Bill Young(FL-13) has passed away. on: October 17, 2013, 01:09:57 pm
So it's a twitter hoax?

He is in the hospital.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressman Bill Young(FL-13) has passed away. on: October 17, 2013, 01:05:35 pm
Apparently there's no confirmation. The link is now broken, but some family members do believe he has passed.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Congressman Bill Young(FL-13) has NOT passed away. on: October 17, 2013, 12:59:30 pm
http://www.saintpetersblog.com/?p=120622
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