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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So... why did Hillary lose Florida? on: January 05, 2017, 09:15:51 am
I thought the Cuban vote bounced back a little to Trump, and that was the final straw.

No, not at all. Traditionally Cuban areas moved strongly away from Trump, so much so that Hillary won GOP held seats of FL-27(Ros-Lehtinen) by 19% and  FL-26(Carlos Curbelo) by 16%. FL-25(Diaz Balart) was won by Trump by 1.5% but it also had an 8% swing toward Hillary.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Trump win Pinellas County, FL? on: December 29, 2016, 01:14:49 pm
I live in Pinellas County and agree with most of the sentiment above. Pinellas is more white than most urban Florida counties and it does appear there was a shift of whites who voted for Obama moving to Trump.

St. Petersburg and the southern part of Pinellas is the where a majority of democratic voters in this county come from and interestingly enough Trump received 1% less in St. Petersburg's precincts than Mitt Romney. However, St. Pete has a decent amount of environmental and far-left voters. Jill Stein did well in St. Pete as did Gary Johnson which made Hillary receive less of the vote than Obama did in 2012 by a larger amount.

I think 3rd party voters definitely made Pinellas vote for Trump. Trump won Pinellas by around 6,000 votes and third party plus write-in votes equaled around 22,000.

One thing interesting to note is that while Trump won and Bush won it 2004, the Republican nominee for President hasn't won 50%+ of the vote since 1988. Where as in every election since 1992 the Democrats have gotten 47%+ of the vote(and 50%+ in three elections).

In 2014 Democrats took control of the Pinellas County commission for the first time in 50 years. We'll see how Pinellas trends in 2020 but if I were to guess I think Pinellas will move slightly toward democrats.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 House elections Megathread on: December 15, 2016, 05:02:05 pm
My thoughts on Florida in 2018:

Defense:
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy- Democrats need to hold this seat, HRC won it by 7.3%.
FL-13 Charlie Crist- This district could be a challenge, HRC won it by 3% after Obama won it by 10%.

Offense:
FL-18- Patrick Murphy should run again to get his seat back, I think he'd would be the best challenger but Trump won this seat by 9%. Would be tough to pick up but I think it'd doable with enough resources. 

FL-26 Carlos Cubelo- HRC won this district by 16%(!!!), Joe Garcia was a flawed candidate. Dems need a good recruit to win this seat but it is very doable I think. There are a lot of historically republican Cubans though but it is trending toward democrats.

FL-27 Ilana Ros-Lehtinen- I don't think she can be picked off simply because she has really separated herself from Trump but it's worth a shot. This district is moving towards democrats and HRC won it by 19.3%(!!!). Democrats definitely need to target it in 2018, IRL won by 9% in 2016. These are the seats that we can win by surprise.

FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart- Trump won this districy by 1.5% after a strong swing to the Democrats(Romney won it by 9.6%). The right candidate may be able to do it. Would definitely need to be able to appeal to the Naples portion of the district.

FL-16 Vern Buchanan- Very unlikely to pick up this seat(Trump won it by around 11%) but these are the seats that at least need a competent candidate. Force the FL GOP to spend money defending this seat.

Thoughts?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is Florida really trending Democratic? on: December 14, 2016, 10:26:03 pm
In this election, the Republican trend of whites in northern Florida and exurban areas slightly outdid the Democratic trend in Orlando and Miami that was expected. Overall, the state is not trending much, but what will be fascinating is to see just how Democratic Miami-Dade can get, and will the deep south area to the west and east of Tallahassee keep getting more Republican? Florida is no lock for either party at the presidential level.

I was wondering this too but first we would need to see if Miami-Dade goes towards democrats in other races:

For example: in FL-25, FL-26, and FL-27 which are all controlled by Miami-Dade based Republicans, Trump only got 49.6%, 40.6%, and 39.1% of the vote, respectively. It will be interesting to see if Democrats can try to make a play at these three seats. Two of the three incumbents are pretty entrenched though so it would be tough unless they retire.
Remember, the 25th also extends into the Naples area, and even with Trump, Hillary couldn't win it. Mario can have the seat as long as he wants it, and even when he retires, his successor is almost certain to be a Republican. I think post-Trump, the numbers go back up a little (not to pre-'08 levels, but I think Trump hit a floor).

I definitely agree, but Democrats should at least contest it. According to this analysis, the Miami-Dade portion of FL-25 moved 13.3% toward the Democrats while the Collier and Hendry portions moved 3.6% and 8.3% toward Republicans. Overall the district shifted 8% to Democrats, you may be right that this is the floor but if Miami-Dade Cubans continue moving toward the Dems this seat could be in play in the future.

edit:
Oops forgot to include link: http://mcimaps.com/how-floridas-congressional-districts-voted-and-the-impact-of-redistricting/
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is Florida really trending Democratic? on: December 14, 2016, 09:33:43 pm
In this election, the Republican trend of whites in northern Florida and exurban areas slightly outdid the Democratic trend in Orlando and Miami that was expected. Overall, the state is not trending much, but what will be fascinating is to see just how Democratic Miami-Dade can get, and will the deep south area to the west and east of Tallahassee keep getting more Republican? Florida is no lock for either party at the presidential level.

I was wondering this too but first we would need to see if Miami-Dade goes towards democrats in other races:

For example: in FL-25, FL-26, and FL-27 which are all controlled by Miami-Dade based Republicans, Trump only got 49.6%, 40.6%, and 39.1% of the vote, respectively. It will be interesting to see if Democrats can try to make a play at these three seats. Two of the three incumbents are pretty entrenched though so it would be tough unless they retire.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is Florida really trending Democratic? on: December 13, 2016, 11:01:25 pm
Here are a trend lines for the big urban counties in Florida, the percentages show what the democratic candidate received. A few things to note, Miami-Dade has continued to move toward democrats, like it has been mentioned before on the forum, older conservative Cubans are dying and non-Cuban hispanics or more democratic cubans are replacing them. Broward has remained pretty steady while republicans have narrowed the gap in Palm Beach.

In the I-4 corridor, Hillsborough has remained relatively stable but I expect it to continue to move slowly more toward democrats. Orange County has a fast growing Puerto Rican population that is pushing it more toward Democrats.

Duval is interesting, Republicans use to post 40-60k vote margins which helped balance South Florida. Dems have definitely pushed to close that gap, there was about a 6k vote margin this year.

D% of vote
 
Miami-Dade (Miami):
2000: 52.57%
2004: 52.89%
2008: 57.81%
2012: 61.58%
2016: 63.22%

Broward (Fort Lauderdale):
2000: 67.41%
2004: 64.21%
2008: 67.02%
2012: 67.12%
2016: 66.08%

Palm Beach (West Palm Beach):
2000: 62.27%
2004: 60.35%
2008: 61.08%
2012: 58.14%
2016: 56.24%

Hillsborough (Tampa):
2000: 47.06%
2004: 46.23%
2008: 53.05%
2012: 52.71%
2016: 50.99%

Orange (Orlando):
2000: 50.06%
2004: 49.83%
2008: 58.96%
2012: 58.56%
2016: 59.77%

Duval (Jacksonville):
2000: 40.74%
2004: 41.62%
2008: 48.63%
2012: 47.67%
2016: 48.48%
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Metro Atlanta on: December 12, 2016, 12:32:29 am
This echoes the trend nationally that large urban areas are continuing to shift to Democrats. It may have been more dramatic in Georgia, but across the country we saw urban counties, particularly ones with high minority populations, move towards the Democrats.

How this plays out in the future is hard to tell, but if you look at the trend in metro Atlanta since 2000 you can see a pretty consistent shift in the suburbs.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: is Georgia polarizing on metro-outstate lines? on: December 07, 2016, 10:42:26 pm
Take a look at how the 3 Atlanta metro counties that Hillary flipped have changed over the last 4 elections. Gwinnett and Henry show a huge trend that will probably continue to be favorable for Democrats.

Democrat % of vote:

Gwinnett County, GA
2004: 33.44%
2008: 44.35%
2012: 44.56%
2016: 50.20%

Henry County, GA
2004: 32.84%
2008: 45.85%
2012: 47.81%
2016: 50.38%

Cobb County, GA
2004: 37.12%
2008: 44.67%
2012: 42.83%
2016: 47.93%

Edit: I'll also look at Fayette County, GA which is in the southern part of the metro. Trump won this county by a decent margin but it is also gradually shifting toward the democrats.

Fayette County, GA
2004: 28.29%
2008: 34.17%
2012: 33.61%
2016: 37.85%
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: is Georgia polarizing on metro-outstate lines? on: December 07, 2016, 10:32:57 pm


This is a pretty good article on Cobb County, GA flipping. It points out that the demographics of Cobb County are changing and it could effect Republicans statewide if they lose their grip. In addition to Trump losing in Cobb, the article talks about changes in downballot races:
Quote
State Rep. Rich Golick’s 19-point win over a Democrat two years ago melted to a 6-point win over the same opponent this year. And state Rep. Sam Teasley’s margin of victory shrank from 25 points to 14 in the past two years.

Source: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/trump-cobb-defeat-creates-headaches-for-gop/c7aLYup4hHBpHu7biI1ypJ/
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: FL-Gravis: Democrats with slight advantage, but many undecideds on: November 30, 2016, 11:37:14 pm
John Morgan is attractive as a candidate because he can partially self fund and he has high name recognition. He would do well in the I-4 corridor. Leaning toward John Morgan simply because he is an outsider candidate and if he went up against Putnam/Bondi, I think the establishment vs outsider script would play well for Dems.

I think Graham would do well if she ran for Attorney General or Agriculture Commissioner.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida 2016 Congressional Elections on: July 24, 2015, 07:42:12 am
Former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker makes FL 13 competitive, assuming a D+4 district:

He would lead Democrat Eric Lynn 51-28.
Charlie Crist would lead Baker 46-42.

Baker is getting 20% of the black vote vs Charlie Crist

http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/235964
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida 2016 Congressional Elections on: July 22, 2015, 07:21:26 am
Charlie Crist has 75/15 approval rating in likely new FL-13 district, he is also leading a three way democratic primary with 73% to Eric Lynn's 10% and possible candidate Dwight Dudley's 8%.

http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/235963

..and the rest is Cristory
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 29, 2014, 03:43:40 pm
Democrats continue to chip away at Republican early vote/absentee ballot edge, lead now down to 6.7%: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/10/2m-ballots-cast-in-fl-gop-lead-over-dems-still-strong-but-still-slipping-slightly.html

What was the lead 4 years ago?

12.6%
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida 2014 Congressional Races on: October 09, 2014, 02:52:24 pm
Graham must be polling well for them be drop that kind of money on this race.
15  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: UNF: Crist ahead on: October 09, 2014, 12:11:53 pm
I'm optimistic but I'll hold my breath until we see how turn out is, that's what this race will come to.  
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 07, 2014, 03:21:18 pm
A few tidbits:

"@AmySherman1 24h Broward ab ballot requests surpass 162k though all may not actually complete them. In 2010 74k voted by absentee."

There could be a jump in absentee ballots in Broward which is a big dem South Florida county, good news for Crist.

And in Palm Beach County: "Democratic absentee ballot requests up 63% over 2010 levels in Palm Beach County"

 http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2014/10/06/democratic-absentee-ballot-requests-up-63-over-2010-levels-in-palm-beach-county/

ALSO, not sure if it means anything but i've already received two calls(one from Equality Florida and another from Next Gen) asking if I've mailed in my ballot yet. Both groups are aligned with Crist so it seems like they're ramping up GOTV operations.
17  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Tampa Bay Times: Scott opening lead on: September 03, 2014, 10:05:14 am
The Tampa Bay Times, while a great newspaper, is awful at polling.

Take their poll on Nov 3, 2012 that had Romney +6:
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/tampa-bay-times-fla-poll-romney-51-obama-45
18  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Survey USA: Crist's Lead Expanding on: July 22, 2014, 04:45:01 pm
Quinnipiac will have a poll out tomorrow, we'll see how that compares to this
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. David Jolly (R-FL) announces SSM support on: July 22, 2014, 03:02:31 pm
RINO Jolly waited until AFTER he got elected and AFTER
We at the grassroots level helped him win.

Supporting marriage equality does not make you a RINO.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 22, 2014, 02:32:53 pm
Quote
In FL Governor's Duel, Democrat Crist Now In the Spotlight, Democrat Crist Now In The Lead - Newly Atop Republican Scott in Dramatic Swing:
Charlie Crist made news last week when he named a running mate, and that appears to resonate with Florida's likely voters, who now have Crist 6 points atop Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 40%, according to WFLA-TV's latest tracking poll in the contest.

2 weeks ago, Crist trailed Scott by 2. As Crist has enjoyed nonstop media attention over the past 5 days, which happen to coincide with SurveyUSA's field period for this survey, Crist's poll numbers benefited as well. In 8 WFLA-TV / SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 04/15/14, Crist has led on 5 occasions, though never by as much as the 6 points he does today. Scott has led in 3 of the 8 tracking polls, though never by more than 2 percentage points.

* Among women, Crist had led by 3, now leads by 10, a gain of 7 points.
* Among men, Crist had trailed by 7, now is tied, a gain of 7.
* Among moderates, a key constituency for any Democrat who hopes to win elected office, Crist leads by 22 points, up from 13 points 2 weeks ago.
* Among Independents, Scott and Crist are effectively tied, a 10 point improvement for Crist poll-on-poll.
* The 08/26/14 FL Primary has not been held yet, and Crist has not yet won his party's nomination.
* After the primary, 2 months of intense campaigning remain before voting begins; these poll numbers can and will change during those 60 days.

Crosstabs here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9879b1f3-f54d-4ae5-ba27-5a1b5207710a
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 22, 2014, 11:18:10 am
I haven't seen the actual poll but according to WFLA twitter Crist has opened a 6% lead. Keep in mind the last time WFLA polled- around July 8th- Scott led 45-43 which was taken just before Crist aired his first ad.

Quote
KeithCate @WFLAKeith  ·  2h
@WFLA tracking poll has @CharlieCrist leading @ScottforFlorida 46% to 40%. Breaking it down with @WFLALauren tonight. #Florida #governor

Is this Crist's LT Gov selection bounce?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. David Jolly (R-FL) announces SSM support on: July 21, 2014, 07:59:44 pm
Pinellas County has always been home to sensible Republicans. I didn't expect Jolly to do something like this but I'm very happy he did.
23  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SC-Rasmussen: Sen. Graham (R) up 19 on: July 11, 2014, 04:58:52 pm
Interesting timing: Thomas Ravenel to submit US Senate petition signatures Monday

http://www.thestate.com/2014/07/11/3559780/thomas-ravenel-to-submit-us-senate.html?sp=/99/132/
24  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Scott leading by 2 on: July 11, 2014, 09:34:10 am
Funny how Crist is winning Cubans by a 57-29 margin but he's winning non-Cuban hispanics 49-41. Usually it would be the other way around for the Democrat.

Also, will Rick Scott really win 20% of African Americans? I find that hard to believe, but who knows
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: June 23, 2014, 11:04:44 am
Here's a link to an article on it: http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/149697

This could be a big deal if it becomes widely known and is used effectively in ads.
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