Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2017, 12:03:19 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 59
51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 11:08:06 am
If Ossoff doesn't live in the district, how is he so popular there? Anyway, Ossoff could be a Southern rising star post-Clinton/Edwards.

He lives literally about a 15 minute run from GA-06. Between weird county lines and the district lines they might as well all be the same place.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would a Christie presidency look like right now? on: April 17, 2017, 11:10:54 pm
Not sure but it would be pretty big.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (4/11: KS-4) on: April 07, 2017, 03:43:02 pm
What would a "good margin" for a democrat be in this district? Anything under 20?
54  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Fox/Bill O'R spent 13+ million settling O'Reilly's sexual harassment claims on: April 04, 2017, 04:19:41 pm

According to that link it looks like the number is up to 12.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 01, 2017, 11:56:19 am
"Noteworthy: early voters have been less white in every day of early voting, and non-D/R vote is most diverse--60% w, 10% a, 7% b, 4% h"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/848207577917870080

Non-D/R voters seem to look more Dem leaning.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 30, 2017, 09:18:11 pm
"Day 4 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 53, R 30
Over all, including absentees, D 55, R 29 with 6442 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/847632669215150086

R vote as a % went down overall since yesterday. D remained steady. Given that the party numbers are based on which primary they have last voted in, do you think the 16% or so who haven't voted in either primary are more R or D?
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 28, 2017, 08:34:34 pm
Which Republican would be the strongest? Handel seems to be leading but she carries the career politician stigma. Gray looks like he is getting support from Trump's base. Not sure about Judson Hill but he seems like an establishment conservative that would probably do well in this district. Any idea about Moody?
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 28, 2017, 08:12:56 pm
@Nate_Cohn: "For what it's worth, day 2 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 55, R 32.
Over all, including abs, it's D 55, R 31, with 3372 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/846892024146018304
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 27, 2017, 09:40:38 pm
Some demographic date on the first day EV: https://twitter.com/electproject/status/846551093081493505
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 27, 2017, 08:39:25 pm
Any idea how independent voters will split? I don't think I have  seen any polling results by affiliation
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 23, 2017, 09:03:48 pm
I don't think Ossoff will win, but seeing him be in the 37-41% range with this many candidates in the race is encouraging. Obviously Republican voters will consolidate behind the winner but I think he has a narrow path if he turns out his voters.

In the run-off, assuming he makes it, I would expect an Ossoff voter to be more likely turn out than a Republican voter whose candidate lost. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out given that there are a lot more Republican voters whose first choice candidate lost than there will be for Democrats.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / FL- Chamber of Commerce: Nelson leads Scott by 6 on: March 20, 2017, 06:52:36 pm
Quote
Sen. Bill Nelson continues to hold an edge over Gov. Rick Scott in a hypothetical 2018 match-up.

A new poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows the Orlando Democrat leads Scott 48 percent to 42 percent. Nelson leads the Naples Republican 79 percent to 11 percent among Democrats, and 44 percent to 36 percent among independents.

Scott leads Nelson 75 percent to 18 percent among Republicans, according to a polling memo.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted by Cherry Communications by phone from March 6 through March 14. The findings were released on the eve of the annual Florida Chamber of Commerce Capitol Days.

http://saintpetersblog.com/poll-bill-nelson-leads-rick-scott-48-42-hypothetical-2018-match/
63  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: March 15, 2017, 11:48:36 am
Only 28% now "strongly approving" off President Trump is pretty striking. That means conservatives are starting to peel off.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 06, 2017, 08:27:44 pm
It would be interesting to see Ossoff's name recognition in that poll. Karen Handel probably is widely known due to having previously held office. I think Trump's approval numbers are a little high for what I would expect in Ga-06.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / FL-UNF: Nelson(D) leads Scott(R) by 6 on: March 06, 2017, 07:22:57 am
Quote
A poll released Monday from the University of North Florida shows Sen. Bill Nelson ahead of Gov. Rick Scott in a hypothetical match-up for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat.

Meanwhile, the favorability ratings of both Sen. Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump are both underwater.

Nelson is up by six points (44 percent to 38 percent) over Scott, with 12 percent undecided.

Nelson’s personal favorability is +14 (42 percent approval, against 28 percent disapproval). Scott’s is + 6, with 46 percent of those surveyed approve of Scott, and 40 percent disapproving.

UNF Polling Director Michael Binder describes the six-point spread as “meaningful,” as “Rick Scott’s alliance with Donald Trump will likely factor into this election’s outcome next year.”

Currently, Trump is underwater with Florida voters, with 44 percent approval compared to 51 percent disapproval. In fact, 44 percent of Florida registered voters surveyed strongly disapprove of the president.

Meanwhile, Rubio ebbs even below that -7 net rating, with an anemic 40 percent approval against 48 percent disapproval.

Florida voters are even more sour on the performance of the Congress: 65 percent disapproval, against 28 percent approval.

UNF polled 973 people — 27 percent on landlines — between the dates of Feb. 13 and Feb. 26. The asserted margin of error is 3 percent.

http://bit.ly/2lRCRje

66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Dems to decide between Curtis, Quist, West, others at March 5 convention on: March 05, 2017, 05:33:31 pm
From Twitter: "72 votes for Quist, 51 for Curtis and 37 for McCarthy, meaning McCarthy is out"
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Dems to decide between Curtis, Quist, West, others at March 5 convention on: March 05, 2017, 05:32:17 pm
Going to the 4th round of voting, just Quist and Curtis are left
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Dems to decide between Curtis, Quist, West, others at March 5 convention on: March 05, 2017, 05:06:44 pm
First round of voting for Dem nominee:

Quist 36.31% 57 votes
Amanda Curtis 24.84% 39 votes
Kelly McCarthy 24.20% 38 votes
Dan West 10.83% 17 votes
Gary Stein 3.82% 6 votes
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Beth Fukumoto switching parties on: February 08, 2017, 01:08:20 pm
One of the Republicans that serves in my hometown just flipped as well....sucks.  Sad

Who? What position?
70  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Cabinet confirmation hearings **live commentary thread** on: February 07, 2017, 12:31:49 pm
I expect Heller and Flake to get a lot of backlash for their votes.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hispanics on: February 02, 2017, 02:06:45 pm
I think Cuban Americans were a huge part of that one. Also Hispanic Protestants I believe voted slightly to Trump by a decent margin

The Cuban-American vote in Florida is split several ways:

***The Tampa Cubans have been in Florida since the 19th century, and are mostly Democrats.

***The OLDER Miami Cubans are folks who came early in the Castro Revolution, and are the most anti-Communist and pro-Republican (although NOT uniformily conservative).

***The YOUNGER Miami/South Florida Cubans are more Republican than other Hispanics, but socially more liberal and trending Democratic somewhat.

I would agree with this although it's hard to tell if Miami/South Florida Cubans are really trending Democratic or if non-Cuban hispanics are simply moving into historically Cuban areas.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / FL-13: Charlie Crist leads David Jolly by 8 in 2018 rematch on: January 31, 2017, 04:39:06 pm
In the election for Congressional district 13 if the candidates were David Jolly and
Charlie Crist, who would you vote for?

David Jolly: 41%
Charlie Crist: 49%
Unsure: 11%

Link: http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2017_CD13_GEN_January30_Y5J2.pdf


In 2016 Crist defeated incumbent Jolly by 3.8%. FL-13 swung heavily to Trump but was still won by Clinton.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-Sen PrimR: Huntsman... +41 on: January 26, 2017, 03:33:36 pm
Just wondering, what was Hatch looking like before November? Is this solely caused by Trump or was Hatch already in trouble?
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: GA-GOV 2018: Jason Carter mulling another run on: January 23, 2017, 01:19:44 pm
If he wins, he can run for president.

Not in 2020 though. I don't think two years as Governor and 5 years as state senator are enough.
Potential VP pick maybe ?

Ignorant Progressives hate southern since they think that if you're a white male from the south you're automatically racist, sexist, misogynist, homophobic, islamophohic, etc.
Indeed, being a white man from the south is a hurdle no Democrat can ever overcome. It's why Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Edwards were never able to make it onto a Democratic presidential ticket.

Maybe for liberals back in the day southerns worked but now they don't.

Tim Kaine is from Richmond, Virginia. Virginia is part of the south.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential/Senate comparision map on: January 22, 2017, 12:01:09 pm
how did trump win that one south florida county and rubio did not/

Patrick Murphy represented parts of St. Lucie County in Congress.
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 59


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines