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May 27, 2015, 09:09:35 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 01:33:30 pm
Electoral silence extended to 10.30 pm.

Wow, the turnout must be really unexpected.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 12:13:00 pm
One booking agent named Gmyz (of "Do Rzeczy" Travel Agency), whose price predicitions were surprisingly accurate two weeks ago.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 11:56:31 am
I suspected another increase v. first round by 5 pm, but I'm a bit surprised.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 10:37:05 am
By 4am we have some *ahem* price projections for booking a room for a night

Cracow: $51,6
Belweder: $48,4
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 10:29:15 am
Appearently, we have waiting lines in many precints.

We'll know a turnout from 6 pm by 6.45.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 24, 2015, 10:12:05 am
ayy lmao, AKA UW in 2001:



32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 10:08:33 am
Generally, most of the electorate vote later and those voting early are more likely to vote for PiS. It's an established pattern, although can't be used, in this election and at this time, to make any confident conclusion.

It will all come down to turnout, as PiS, electorate historically does better with less people voting (because PiS iron electorate is very disciplined, PO electorate, well, isn't that devoted). Komorowski needs better turnout. Increase from the first round may be an encouraging sign, but in this election, no solid projection could possibly be made now.

The PKW announced we'll probably know full, official results by late Monday, but exit polls are usually reliable enough to project the winner (unless the margin is extremely thin, as in 1995). So we won't know anything until 9 PM.

I know, I may sound overcautious, but this is how the things are Tongue
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 08:52:39 am
Yay! Some data:

Turnout by major cities:

Białystok: 19,55%
Bydgoszcz 19,6%
Gdańsk 16,22%
Katowice 16,45%
Kraków 17,20%
Lublin 17,68%
Łódź 17,33%
Poznań 18,26%
Szczecin 17,52%
Warszawa 18,12%
Wrocław 16,47%

34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 08:46:48 am
Only 17.4 per cent of some 30 million eligible voters had cast their ballot by midday, Poland's electoral commission announced.

Well, that's higher that 14.61% from the first round. Usually, most people vote afternoon.

But yeah, it's depressing that turnout around 50% is considered "high" here Sad

35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 24, 2015, 02:38:51 am
2005: The Dark Tusk Rises

Almost his 40% in Gdańsk, which is consistently a PO's best district

36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 02:37:31 am
I guess I can predict one thing: this will be close Tongue
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 23, 2015, 11:20:20 pm
Oh, and also: great maps.
What software do you used to draw them?

Thanks.

I'll probably get crucified by our fellow mapmakers for unprofessionalism, but I've simply uploaded a template of districts and I'm changing shades on MS PAINT.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 23, 2015, 01:30:48 pm
2005: SLD's decline begins





2007 LiD's performance

LiD (Left and Democrats) was a relatively shortlived coalition of SLD, UP, SdPl (defectors from SLD) and PD (formerly UW)




Zagłębie remained SLD's strongest area, although IIRC their support there actually fell under 20% in 2011
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 23, 2015, 12:59:09 pm
Think SLD has the biggest downfall from power in 2005? No, that honor goes to AWS, which in four years went from winning an election to getting purged from the Sejm altogether (as AWSP).

AWSP performance in 2001:





AWS, good that they are dead : )

Best part is, of course, they had barely surpassed 5%, but ran as a coalition, for which threshold is 8%
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 12:58:14 pm
The most annoying thing about Polish election is so called electora silence, from Friday's midnight to polls closing on 9 pm, Sunday. No agitation, no media coverage, I'm already suffering from withdrawal, lol.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 23, 2015, 09:17:53 am
Think SLD has the biggest downfall from power in 2005? No, that honor goes to AWS, which in four years went from winning an election to getting purged from the Sejm altogether (as AWSP).

AWSP performance in 2001:



Great work, thank you! Smiley

My pleasure Smiley
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 23, 2015, 08:54:21 am
PO performance in 2001

43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 23, 2015, 05:44:55 am
2001 Samoobrona performance:





Third places in the 2011 Sejm elections (since making a second place map, given POPIS dominance, would be pointless)



Orange: Palikot
Green: PSL
Red: SLD


...Now, can someone tell me why the hell am I wasting my time?
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 22, 2015, 06:06:02 pm
PSL nationwide performance in 2001:

45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 22, 2015, 05:44:16 pm
LPR's nationwide performance in 2001

You can see what we call the "Eastern Wall" Tongue

46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kalwejt's Polish electoral maps thread on: May 22, 2015, 04:49:20 pm
Runners-up in 2005:

47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 22, 2015, 04:29:17 pm
I am conflicted about this.  My sense is that Duda should have the edge on the basis that the incumbent does not seem to poll that high and PiS end to under polls.  On the flit side Komorowski seems to have the momentum and the polls might not have caught up.  Overall I still feel Duda wins 51-49.  Of course that is a wild guess in the dark.

Well, here's everybody on edge Wink
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 22, 2015, 04:17:12 pm
Indeed, my first round turnout prediction was perfect (0.96% off) ca. 10 hours before the polls even closed.

Sure. Your prediction (37-31 for Komorowski) was just slightly off real results (34,7-33.7 for Duda).

Quote
Btw. You are probably a partisan Polish political hack and Komoroski  supporter, so i can understand your emotions hours before the election.

Wrong, my friend. In the first round I've casted an invalid vote and I'm very sceptical, to say the least, about the two candidates. Right now, I'm a very reluctant voter.

Quote
But sorry, the numbers simply don't add up from my neutral, statistical point of view for your candidate. Duda will win this one by 4-7 pct.

You might very well be right, my friend. The problem is, you're putting too much confidence in not very reliable data.

The difference between us is that I see other factors you disregard from the distance. You seem to think of every election, regardless of country and specific circumstances, the same, which skewing your "neutral and statistical" approach. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit this, because I'm not someone who pretends to be all-knowing and go with a knee-jerk reaction when someone disagrees. Especially someone with more first-hand experience on said field. That would be kind of like me or you lecturing Al on Welsh miners.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 22, 2015, 03:55:35 pm
I was working and living 2 yrs in Warsaw for my then company toshiba, so don't underestimed my knowlegde of Polish political reality, bro.Smiley

Sure, that puts you on the same level with someone who's been living there and closely following his native politics all his life Tongue

That being said, I can only wish you your second round prediction will be as "perfect" as your first round one.


You know the old joke?

An engineer, a physist and a mathematician go to the races. After the fact, they are commiserating at the pub. The engineer says: "I cannot imagine, why I lost. I measured every single muscle of every horse, I bet on the one that had to be the fastest". The physist responds: "but you failed to take account of statistical variation. I included in my model the entire history of these races - and I still failed". Then they notice that the mathematician has a thick wad of cash, so everybody asks, how he did it. "Well," says the mathematician, "first I assumed that all horses are identical and spherical".

Lol. Good one Smiley
50  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Deeply Disturbing on: May 22, 2015, 03:44:08 pm
I really don't like when people posts IRC logs.
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