Quebec 1931
Lib - 79
Pro- 6
Con - 5

Not much going on at this time, except that Liberal dominance continues. But that's all about to change when a break-away faction from the Liberals causes everything to go amiss.


Quebec 1935
Lib - 46
ALN - 26
Con - 10
Pro - 8

A group of left-wing Liberals broke off from the Liberal party. Demanding change, they united with the Conservatives and the Progressives to form the Union Nationale. With the support of not only the ALN and Conservatives but the Progressives as well, they scored an overwhelming victory in the next election.


Quebec 1936
UN - 86
Lib - 4

Within a year of the election, however, over a dozen members had broken off from the UN due to the increasingly right-wing policies of it's leader, Maurice Duplessis. These Progressives were able to take hold of the agenda and marginalize the Liberals.


Quebec 1939
Pro - 42
Lib - 29
UN- 15


The Liberals, eager to return to power, and the Progressives, eager to form their first government, signed a pact and formed a coalition government with Progressive policies, and a Liberal premier.


Quebec 1944
UN - 48
Lib/Pro - 39
Bloc - 4

The anti-war Bloc Populaire was able to win 4 seats this election. The Liberal-Progressive alliance was pushed into the opposition. The alliance fell apart prior to the next election


Quebec 1948
UN - 82
Pro - 8
Lib - 1

Increasing numbers of Liberals joined the provincial Progressive party, while remaining in support of the federal Liberals. The Provincial Progressives for their part were not anxious in the slightest to tie themselves to the federal Progressive movement. The Federal Progressive party had a very difficult time breaking into Quebec, as those who supported Progressive policies, were adverse to the leaders of the Progressive movement who were by in large western Canadians, and protestants.


Quebec 1952
UN - 68
Pro - 22
Lib - 2

The policy of keeping the provincial and federal Progressives separate would prove to be a successful idea.


Quebec 1956
UN - 72
Pro- 20
Lib - 1





The list of Premiers of Quebec is as follows.

Lomer Gouin (Lib) 1905-1920
Louis-Alexandre Taschereau (Lib) 1920-1936
Adelard Godbout (Lib) 1936
Maurice Duplessis (UN) 1936-1939
Adelard Godbout (Lib) 1936-1944
Maurice Duplessis (UN) 1944-present

I personally recommend you do a real 'narrative' timeline like most timelines on this board are... Stats are nice, but it's always nicer if there's a narrative that tells us the story, if you catch my drift.

The fun starts in 1957. Pictures, graphics, more tables, a compelling story. Until then, sadly, its quite boring. Two more posts (one to get Quebec out of the way, and another for federal elections) and then the fun starts tonight.

Newfoundland joined confederation in 1949

Newfoundland 1949
Lib - 22
Pro - 5
Ind - 1

Newfoundland 1952
Lib - 24
Pro - 4

Newfoundland 1956
Lib - 32
Pro - 4


Newfoundland has had only one premier.
Joseph Smallwood (Lib) 1949-present

Premiers of Ontario
Ernest Dury (PRO) 1919-1925
Harry Nixon (PRO) 1925-1934
Mitchell Hepburn (Lib) 1934-1942
George Conant (Lib) 1942-1943
George A Drew (Lib) 1943-1948
Mitchell Hepburn (Lib) 1948-1949 (Interim)
Leslie Frost (Lib) 1949-present (1957)

The Hepburn government and federal King government did not get along well. Hepburn, while remaining leader of the party, stepped aside as Premier and allowed Conant to take over. Liberals demanded a leadership election in which George A Drew was elected. Drew, a former Tory, had chosen to run for the Liberals and not the Tories upon entering provincial politics, despite holing a Conservative membership while mayor of Guelph. Drew was defeated in his riding by William Temple from the Progressives, and opted to resign as Premier, and run federally, becoming a key cabinet minister in the government of Louis St. Laurent. Drew was followed by Leslie Frost, a powerful figure in Ontario politics for years to come. Frost was premier when Ontario's highway 401 was constructed, as well as Toronto's Subway.



British Columbia
John Oliver (Lib) 1918-1927
John MacLean (Lib) 1927-1928
Simon Fraser Tolmie (Con) 1928-1930
Duff Pattullo (Lib) 1930-1941
John Hart (Lib) 1941-1947
Byron Johnson (Lib) 1947-1952
W.A.C. Bennett (SC) 1952-present



Alberta
Herbert Greenfield (Pro) 1921-1925
John Edward Brownlee (Pro) 1925-1934
Richard Reid (Pro) 1934-1935
William Aberhart (SC) 1935-1943
Ernest Manning (SC) 1943-present



Saskatchewan
William M. Martin (Lib) 1916-1922
Charles A. Dunning (Lib) 1922-1926
James G. Gardiner (Lib) 1926-1929
James T.M. Anderson (Pro/Con) 1929-1932
James G. Gardiner (Lib) 1932-1935
William John Patterson (Lib) 1935-1944
Tommy Douglas (Pro) 1944-present

The Anderson government was elected with support of the Progressives and Conservatives. Anderson, a former Conservative, was chosen as Premier as he was seen as the one Progressive who Conservatives could get behind. Anderson quickly became very right-wing in government, and some Progressives refused to support the government. Anderson ran as Conservative leader in the 1932 election, and lost all seats, while anti-government Progressives managed to retain just a handful of seats.



Manitoba
Tobias C Norris (Lib) 1920-1922
John Bracken (Pro) 1922-1943
Stuart S. Garson (Pro) 1943-1948
Douglas L. Campbell (Pro) 1948-present



New Brunswick
Walter E Foster (Lib) 1917-1923
Peter J. Veniot (Lib) 1923-1925
John Baxter (Con) 1923-1931
Charles D Richards (Con) 1931-1932
Allison A Dysart (Lib) 1932-1940
John B McNair (Lib) 1940-1952
Hugh John Flemming (Lib) 1952-present




Nova Scotia
George H Murray (Lib) 1896-1923
Ernest H Armstrong (Lib) 1923-1925
Edgar N Rhodes (Con) 1925-1930
Gordon S Harrington (Con) 1930-1933
Angus L Macdonald (Lib) 1933-1940
Alexander S MacMillan (Lib) 1940-1945
Angus L Macdonald (Lib) 1945-1954
Harold Connolly (Lib) 1954
Henry D Hicks (Lib) 1954-1956
Robert Stanfield (Lib) 1956-present

The election of Hicks over Connolly (who was also serving as interim leader at the time) was due to anti-catholic feeling. Hicks was unable to unite the party, and initially refused to sit in coalition with Social Credit. His MLA's revolted against him, and chose to sit with Social Credit with Stanfield as Premier.




Prince Edward Island
John Howatt Bell (Lib) 1919-1925
Albert C Saunders (Lib) 1925-1930
Walter M Lea (Lib) 1930-1936
Thane A Campbell (Lib) 1936-1943
J Walter Jones (Lib) 1943-1953
Walter R Shaw (Lib) 1953-present

Rather than continue to post each province as part of the main story, I've decided to post them in a single list, and I will note which elections require a "story" and elaborate on those.

(Translation - these elections are not important and I want to get them "out of the way")

Alberta 1930
Pro - 49
Lib - 11

Alberta 1935
SC - 56
Lib - 5
Pro - 2

Alberta 1940
SC - 36
Lib - 20
Pro - 1

Alberta 1944
SC - 51
Lib - 7
Pro - 2

Alberta 1948
SC - 51
Lib - 4
Pro - 2

Alberta 1952
SC - 52
Lib - 5
Pro - 2

Alberta 1955
SC - 37
Lib - 22
Pro - 2



BC 1928
Lib - 21
Con - 15
Pro - 12

(The Conservatives and Progressives formed a pro-rural coalition government, which fell apart after the Depression hit)

BC 1930
Lib - 34
Pro - 10
Con - 3

BC 1934
Lib - 35
Pro - 12

BC 1937
Lib - 31
Pro - 17

BC 1941
Lib - 33
Pro - 15

BC 1945
Lib - 37
Pro - 15

BC 1949
Lib - 39
Pro - 11

BC 1952
SC - 19
Pro - 18
Lib - 11

BC 1953
SC - 28
Pro - 14
Lib - 6

BC 1956
SC - 39
Pro - 10
Lib - 3



Sask 1929
Lib - 28
Pro - 25
Con - 10

(Progressives and Conservatives formed a government, which was quickly co-opted by the Conservative agenda. It fell apart during the Depression.)

Sask 1932
Lib - 50
Pro - 5

Sask 1935
Lib - 41
Pro - 9

Sask 1938
Lib - 39
Pro - 12
SC - 2

Sask 1944
Pro - 47 (Lead by Tommy Douglas)
Lib - 5

Sask 1948
Pro - 41
Lib - 19
SC - 2

Sask 1952
Pro - 42
Lib - 11

Sask 1956
Pro - 36
Lib - 14
SC - 3


Manitoba 1927
Pro - 33
Lib - 15
Con - 7

Manitoba 1932
Pro - 43
Lib - 10
Con - 2

Manitoba 1936
Pro - 30
Lib - 16
SC - 9

Manitoba 1941
Pro - 30
Lib - 15
SC - 10

Manitoba 1945
Pro - 29
Lib - 15
SC - 11

Manitoba 1949
Pro - 31
SC - 14
Lib - 12

Manitoba 1953
Pro - 35
SC - 12
Lib - 10


Nova Scotia 1928
Con - 24
Lib - 10
Pro - 8

(At it's demise in 1933, this would be the last Conservative government in Canadian history)

Nova Scotia 1933
Lib - 22
Pro - 8

Nova Scotia 1937
Lib - 25
Pro - 5

Nova Scotia 1941
Lib - 22
Pro - 5
SC - 3

Nova Scotia 1945
Lib - 28
SC - 2

Nova Scotia 1949
Lib - 27
Pro - 8
SC - 2

Nova Scotia 1953
Lib - 22
Pro - 13
SC - 2

Nova Scotia 1956
Lib - 20
Pro - 18
SC - 5

(The Liberals remained in office in coalition with Social Credit. This Minority government would go on to be a crucial turning point for allowing Social Credit to be perceived as a national party.)


PEI 1931
Lib - 15
Pro - 15

(The two parties agreed to work together under a Liberal administration. The Liberals were successfully able to play the unpopularity of the depression off on the policies demanded by the Progressives)

PEI 1935
Lib - 30

PEI 1939
Lib - 27
Pro - 3

PEI 1943
Lib - 20
Pro - 10

PEI 1947
Lib - 24
Pro - 6

PEI 1951
Lib - 24
Pro - 6

PEI 1955
Lib - 27
Pro - 3


New Brunswick 1925 (accidentally left off earlier)
Lib - 23
Con - 13
Pro - 12

(Conservative lead coalition with the Progressives. Pro-rural)

New Brunswick 1930
Con - 17
Pro - 16
Lib - 15

(Conservative lead coalition with the Progressives, fell apart quickly)

New Brunswick 1932
Lib - 30
Pro - 13
Con - 5

New Brunswick 1937
Lib - 29
Pro - 19

New Brunswick 1942
Lib - 36
Pro - 12

New Brunswick 1947
Lib - 47
Pro - 5

New Brunswick 1952
Lib - 29
Pro - 23

(Despite a higher popular vote, the Progressives lost due to concentration of the vote in the english regions of the province)

New Brunswick 1956
Lib - 26
Pro - 24

(Despite a higher popular vote, the Progressives lost due to concentration of the vote in the english regions of the province. The Progressives would actively seek out a francophone to lead them into the next election. They eventually settled on Louis Robichaud.)


Ontario 1929
Pro - 92
Lib - 11
Con - 9

Ontario 1934
Lib - 69
Pro - 17
Con - 3

Ontario 1937
Lib - 66
Pro - 24

Ontario 1943
Lib - 38
Pro - 36
Con - 16

Ontario 1945
Lib - 66
Pro - 16
Con - 8

Ontario 1948
Lib - 53
Pro - 23
Con - 14

Ontario 1951
Lib - 79
Pro - 8
SC - 2
Con - 1

Ontario 1955
Lib - 84
Pro - 11
SC - 3


Quebec and the Feds are saved for later Premier lists to come out soon. I've decided to make 1957 as a "turning point" year, hence the story will advance to that point shortly (within a day or so) and then I will stop and take a look back at what I've written so far.

As I get into the future, things become more and more open to chance. Hence after 1957 I will open the floor to suggestions, and by the time we get to 2009, I might be running on suggestions alone! I have a few ideas though to get me though to that point that I think are solid; regardless, we'll see where this goes.

The Liberal government would last until 1923 due to limited Progressive and Tory support.

The election was a huge morale killer for the Tories. Many of their left-wing members left for the Progressives and never looked back.

Provincial politics also changed as a result. The government of Ontario lead by the United Farmers, officially re branded themselves as the Ontario Progressives and united with Labour members. The United Farmers of Alberta, also in government did the same. A Progressive majority government was further elected in Manitoba in 1922.

The 1923 Ontario provincial election proved a disaster for the Conservatives. Attempting a comeback, they failed miserably, and lost seats from the previous election.
Pro - 55
Lib - 34
Con - 22
The Progressives, despite some unpopularity, were able to cobble together a Minority government.


The 1923 Quebec provincial election also saw the Conservatives falter, but not by as much.

Lib - 64
Pro - 12
Con - 9


The 1923 Prince Edward Island provincial election saw the first Progressives elected to the provincial legislature. Only here were the Conservatives able to hold on to some degree.

Lib - 15
Con - 14
Pro - 1


The 1923 federal election saw a rebound in Liberal fortunes as the expense of the Conservative Party. Anti-Progressive voters gathered behind the Liberals, and despite gaining votes, the Progressives lost seats. It was the Conservatives, however, who were decimated, falling below the 12 seats required for party status.

Lib - 128 - 43%
Pro - 97 - 36%
Con - 10 - 17%

The election granted the Liberals a comfortable Majority, but also killed the hope of the Conservative Party. One of their seats came from the remote north. All 9 of their remaining seats came from one province, Ontario. Supporters of the party continues to branch off; more left wing supporters joined the Progressives, joined by increasing number of left-wing Liberals, while right-wing Conservatives either stayed with the party or joined the Liberals to help stop the Progressive tide.

Provincial elections continued the tide of Progressive-from-Conservative votes.

Prince Edward Island was the first to go, due to the small majority gained there in the last election. Islanders were not yet ready to trust the Progressives, but had given up on the Conservatives. The 1924 election saw the following results:

Lib - 26
Pro - 3
Con - 1


British Columbia went to the polls in 1924 as well. Under the name the "Provincial Party" and in an electoral coalition with Labour, the BC Progressives were able to burst on to the scene, displacing the Conservatives as the #2 party.

Lib - 25
Pro - 17
Con - 6


In Early 1925 the Ontario government fell apart, and an election was held that saw the Progressives gain a large majority. The Conservatives, however, were able to make a strong stand, and displaced the Liberals, giving some hope to Tories nationwide.

Pro - 74
Con - 23
Lib - 15


Mid 1925 saw Nova Scotia elect a new assembly.  Demands for change were strong, but the Progressives were not fully trusted. the result was was one that would give Tories even more hope.

Con - 20
Pro - 19
Lib - 4

The result of this election was a coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberals, that remained stable for years.


Late in 1925, Saskatchewan went to the polls. The Liberals continued to hold on to government here.

Lib - 50
Pro - 10
Con - 3


1926 saw an election in Alberta. The Progressives won re-election easily. Their government continued to be very popular.

Pro - 54
Lib - 8


Prior to the federal election in 1927, Quebec went to the polls. The result was painful for all but the Liberals.

Lib - 79
Pro - 4
Con - 2


The 1927 Federal Election saw a minor bounce for the Conservatives in terms of seats. They increased their seat count in Ontario, and they were able to pick up a few ridings in Nova Scotia, and even one in Quebec, however their nation-wide popular vote continued to drop

Lib - 126 - 45%
Pro - 91 - 37%
Con - 28 - 16%

1921 election:

First, I note the fracture of the vote. The Progressive Party was, in short, a coalition between various United Farmer and Labour groups. Some candidates still ran for the Labour Party despite this. In order for this timeline to work, we will assume all ran under the Progressive banner.

There are many ridings that did not run a Progressive candidate. This makes it difficult yet also easy to change history. BC in particular did not have many Progressives (or Labour etc) running. I therefore have upped those ridings with said candidates to help them win. There are cases where the progressive candidate got, for example, 39 votes, compared to the winners 10,493. Clearly this is not a riding that's going to switch, but where the difference is within a few thousand, I've switched the riding over.


Ridings that switched.
BC: Kootney Easy. New Westminster. Nanimo. Vancouver South.
AB: Progressives already won every seat in the province.
SK: Regina
MB: Winnipeg North (Won by a "Socialist", who then went on to sit with the Progressives
Hop, Skip, and a Jump.
NB: Kent See interesting note below
NS: Inverness. Cape Breton South and Richmond (two MPs)
PEI: none (no ridings close enough)
YK: none (no progressive candidate)


Note on Kent: In 1997, the NDP won the riding of Kent-Westmorland. This win was on the strength of the candidate within Westmorland county. Kent, as a whole, has never, never, voted anything but Liberal (federally OR provincially), and is the only place in Canada I can find that's done that. I am truly shocked to find that in 1921 the Progressives took over 40% of the vote here, and could have won with a little boost from alternate history.

Now down to the "Big 2" provinces.
QC: Yamaska only riding in the province that the Progressives even got close to
ON: Bruce North. Essex South. Oxford North. Carlton. Durham. Elgin East. Elgin West. Fort William and Rainy River. Grey North. Hamilton East. Hamilton West. Hastings East. Lambton West. Lincoln. Northumberland. Oxford South. Parry Sound. Peel. Prince Edward. Simcoe South. Toronto East. Wentworth. -- Also, the Independent elected for Victoria later switched to the Progressives. We are assuming he did so now.


I'm surprised how many close ridings there were in Ontario where the Tories just edged out the Progressives. I think this clearly shows that we cannot kill the Liberals. We must kill the Tories. Anyways, here's the alternate history results table:

Hey all. I used to post here over 3 years ago but cant remember my login name much less my password, so I just created a new me (I am very different than I was at that time, for one thing I was only 87.5% of my current age)

Lemme answer some of these
Gender: Male
Age: 24
Race/ethnic composition: Acadian/Italian
Religion: Monotheist
Height: 5'7"
Weight: 230 lbs perhaps?
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Occupation: Security Guard
Party of Choice: Liberal Party of Canada.... or Maybe the Green Party of Canada... Or maybe the Tories...
Favorite color: Blue
Your other interests: Politics, Maps, Public Transit, Highways
Do you live by yourself: I have one roomate.
What city did you grow up in? Summerside PEI
Have you ever been attracted to someone of the same sex? No
How awesome would you rate yourself?: I am Emperor Awesome

Edit - As seen below, it actually makes more sense due to factors of history to have the Progressives replace the Tories (not the Liberals) and in stead have the Liberals move to the right, creating an Australian-like situation in Canada.

I'm surprised no one posted this yet.

Background. In the United Kingdom, and many other European nations, during the period from 1900 to 1930, Social Democratic and pro-Labour parties replaced many big and small L Liberal parties as the main opposition tot the various type of Conservative parties out there. In Canada this did not happen because, in short, the Liberal Party of Canada was able to absorb many of the Progressive Party's MP's, policies, and voters, moving it to the left of other "Liberal Parties" and keeping it cemented as Canada's largest Left of Centre party. In 1933 nearly the entire Progressive delegation in Parliament (IE it's MPs) and nearly all its MLAs defected to the new CCF party, which later became the NDP. Due to the fact that most of these MPs were from rural Alberta, most were not re-elected to represent the CCF.

Change:
The change would be that in the 1921 election, the Progressives managed a wider victory. I will post a table in my second post (directly below this one) about this. Regardless, the new, larger Progressive caucus decides not to work with the Liberals but to oppose them as the official opposition.

Result:
This is where I need help. What would have happened? I see one of two paths:
A - The Progressives keep a steady vote while the Conservative Party raises, and the Liberals get squeezed out.
B - The Conservatives never recover. They are replaced on the right by Social Credit out west, and remain a very small party existing only in certain provinces.

Theories:
Pierre Trudeau started out in the CCF/NDP and only switched to the Liberals just before getting elected. As the story goes, a high-placed Liberal saw how skilled he was and asked him "How would you like to be Prime Minister" and secured him a riding. My theory is that Trudeau hence would have been a Progressive and not a Liberal if said party was in a position to win.

Thoughts:
The story would progress easier if it were the Conservatives who had died off. Many of the "Tory" leaders from 1930-2003 were 'red' Tories, and could well have fit into a right-shifted Liberal Party with ease. Also, the Conservatives remaining off the stage would have allowed for Social Credit to remain a force. Remember, Preston Manning ran for Social Credit decades before he founded Reform. The CCF changed its name to the NDP, so there is no reason why Social Credit could not change its name to Reform, etc.



I'd like to turn this into one of those "Stories" that are in the american what-if forums. Id like to see what Canada would look like today if this had happened.

Hello. I'm wondering how you guys made those maps? I'm a map maker myself and if someone can teach me how to do this I can continue with the project for everyone to enjoy.