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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: election-atlas.ca on: June 24, 2013, 10:53:36 pm
Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality Wink

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.

Really? For 2011? I can only remember you doing it for 2008.

Yes, I did them too.  I am happy to supply them.  They are simply colour coded by winner not percentage although I do one for Tories over 50% vs. under 50% otherwise right vs. left.  I know many consider it questionable to consider Liberals on the left, but rather right wing vs. non-right wing vote for better terminology.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: June 24, 2013, 10:52:07 pm
Hmm, what about all of Greater Vancouver A Electoral Area combined (I noticed you split it up)?

True, although most of the population live in University Endowment Lands and the rest of Greater Vancouver Electoral A is mostly the mountain area where hardly anyone lives.  In fact the number living in the other areas is probably so small they merge the polls anyways (when the numbers are too small they merge them for reporting purposes to protect the secrecy of the ballot).
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: June 24, 2013, 07:35:22 pm
If you post all the results or at least by RD then I can make a map for you Smiley (of 2009)

Sure I can give you the results once done for both of them.  I only did the built up areas, not the electoral areas but considering most have only a few polls probably through eyeballing the maps on election atlas by 506 that would be pretty easy.  Another interesting one would be to figure out how the federal ridings voted and likewise how the provincial went federally.  I am guessing that the results were shockingly similar with most the BC Liberal ridings going Conservative federally and most BC NDP going NDP federally with a few exceptions off course.  Federally, I suspect the BC Liberals won every Conservative riding save Nanaimo-Alberni and Vancouver Island North (and those were quite close anyways) while the BC NDP took every NDP riding plus those two and Vancouver Centre and Saanich-Gulf Islands.  Vancouver-Quadra I suspect went BC Liberal however. 

As for GVRD, I should note these were the winners in 2009 (I haven't done 2013 fully yet).

BC Liberals: Lions Bay, Bowen Island, West Vancouver, North Vancouver DM, North Vancouver city, University Endowment Lands, Vancouver, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Anmore, Belcarra, Richmond, Delta, White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Langley city, Langley DM

BC NDP: Burnaby, New Westminster, Port Coquitlam, Surrey, Maple Ridge

By percentage

BC Liberals over 60%

West Vancouver, North Vancouver DM, Anmore, Richmond, Langley DM

BC Liberals 50-60%

Lions Bay, Port Moody, White Rock, Langley City, Belcarra, University Endowment Lands, Barnston Island

BC NDP over 50%

New Westminster, Port Coquitlam

BC Liberals 40-50%

North Vancouver city, Bowen Island (40-36% against Greens), Vancouver (Liberals won by 2,000 votes only), Burnaby (NDP won by less than 1%), Coquitlam (Liberals got 49.5% vs. NDP 39.5%), Delta, Surrey (NDP won 48-44%), Pitt Meadows (Liberals won by less than 1%), Maple Ridge (NDP won by under 1%).

NDP 40-50%

Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Langley City (50-40% for Liberals)

BC Liberals under 40% (they got at least 33% in all GVRD municipalities)

New Westminster and Port Coquitlam

NDP 30-40%

North Vancouver city, University Endowment Lands, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Delta, Langley DM, Anmore, Belcarra, Barnston Island

NDP under 30%

Lions Bay, Bowen Island, West Vancouver, North Vancouver DM, Richmond, White Rock

West Vancouver was the only municipality where they got less than 20% while the BC Liberals got almost 70% there.  Off course I believe it is one of if not the richest municipality in Canada.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: election-atlas.ca on: June 24, 2013, 07:23:11 pm
Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality Wink

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: election-atlas.ca on: June 24, 2013, 05:07:03 pm
Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: June 24, 2013, 05:05:27 pm
I am currently doing a municipal by municipal breakdown.  I've already completed 2009 and working on 2013 so anyone interested in any particular one?  It looks like looking at things preliminarily that Vancouver narrowly went BC Liberal in 2009 but flipped to the NDP in 2013 while Surrey went in the other direction.  It also looks like in 2009, the results in Kamloops were close to the provincewide average (Kamloops is a quintessential bellwether town as it has always back the government although in 1996 when split in two one went for the NDP who won the election and won the BC Liberals who won the popular vote, while every other election since 1903 its been represented by a government MLA), whereas in 2013 it looks like the BC Liberals were close to 10% above the province wide average in Kamloops while the NDP was a few points below.  Also it seems Prince George has really swung rightward.  It used to be competitive or had a slight NDP tilt in the 90s whereas today BC Liberal support has been 10-15 points above the provincewide average, otherwise I wonder if it is becoming more like Kelowna in terms of now solidly BC Liberal.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2013 on: June 24, 2013, 05:00:32 pm
I would say Etobicoke-Lakeshore would go Tory long before it would go NDP although I agree at the moment the Liberals would probably hold it, but it did go Tory provincially and also has in the past such as the federal elections of 1984 and 1988 as well as provincially in both 1995 and 1999.  Also Rob Ford solidly won this area too.  The main problem at the moment is Tim Hudak's personal numbers are horrible and as much as people want government to control spending, I am not so sure people are keen to return to the Common Sense Revolution of the 90s.  In addition Kathleen Wynne is far more liked than McGuinty.  Still I would say in order of winneability here is how I would rank them.

Liberals

1.  Ottawa South (highly likely)
2.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (likely)
3.  London West (slight edge)
4.  Windsor-Tecumseh (uphill battle)

PCs
1.  London West (slight disadvantage but definitely winneable especially if the NDP splits the left)
2.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (a longshot, but possible with a strong candidate and strong campaign)
3.  Ottawa South (A win is highly unlikely, but the PCs have a strong base as they will almost certainly get over 30%, but unlikely to crack the 40% mark and not much splitting on the left).
4.  Windsor-Tecumseh (irrelevant, will likely come in third)

NDP
1.  Windsor-Tecumseh (likely and a must win)
2.  London West (Possible, but a long shot)
3.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (extremely unlikely, will likely come in third again).
4.  Ottawa South (completely irrelevant, will be lucky if they can get over 15%).
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: June 11, 2013, 09:48:41 pm
Swing map:



Obvious trends are obvious. Vancouver proper and more White or Chinese areas in the lower mainland swung to the NDP. More ethnic (read: South Asian) areas in the Lower mainland swung Liberal. Outside the Lower mainland, nearly everything swung Liberal.

While the interior generally seems have swung in favour of the Liberals, it seems the Cariboo ridings were the most heavy.  Not just Cariboo North where you had Bob Simpson running as an independent but also Cariboo-Chilcoltin.  My guess is those areas are fairly right wing to begin with (consider how heavily they vote Conservative federally) and they only went NDP in 2005 due to being hard hit by cuts like school and hospital closures.  With Campbell gone and those behind, they swung back to their previous voting patterns. 

Its true that the ridings with large South Asian population swung heavily towards the Liberals mind you in ridings like Surrey-Green Timbers and Surrey-Newton the NDP was at close to 70% and Liberals only around 25% so its not as though the NDP really had much room to grow to begin with.  My guess is ground organization and Christy Clark's former federal Liberal ties played a role.  While most voters could care less about her federal affiliation, her former ties there probably gave her closer contacts with many key organizers in that community than what Campbell had.  People like Sukh Dhaliwal and Prem Vinning are both federal Liberals who are close to Christy Clark.  Also back in 2004, one Indo-Canadian men was sent home from the hospital due to lack of beds and died choking on his blood.  This was a huge scandal in the Indo-Canadian community and really hurt Campbell amongst them.  Also with Delta North and Surrey-Fleetwood being more competitive, there is no question in my mind the gains amongst South Asians gave the Liberals enough votes to go over the top here.

A final question sort of on a different one is anybody have any idea why Prince George has swung so heavily towards the Liberals over the past 15 years.  It went NDP in the 90s and even in the 80s was quite competitive whereas in the past two elections the Liberals won by landslides here.  In fact I figure if the BC Liberals only won 25 seats like some polls suggested they still would have held both Prince George ridings.  The only one I can think of is decline of forestry and rise of mining as I believe the NDP has tended to do well amongst those in the forestry industry whereas the BC Liberals tend to do well amongst those in the mining industry.  Any other thoughts.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2013 on: June 11, 2013, 09:41:26 pm
Windsor will likely go NDP.  London West leans Liberal, but with the recent revelations on the gas plant deleting of e-mail I would wait until the next batch of polls come out to see if public opinion has moved.  I doubt the NDP now can win it.  They were only the mid 30s due to McGuinty's souring relation with public sector unions which have improved under Wynne never mind Wynne comes from the left of the party.  Had Paputello won then they would probably be doing better as she comes from the right of the party.  The Tories certainly could win there but far from a certainty.  Ottawa South will probably stay Liberal.  It seems being a political town, popular vote is rather consistent there over other places.  Both provincially and federally the Liberals always get at least 40% in this riding, but can never seem to crack the 50% mark whereas the Tories always seem to get in the 30-40% range regardless of their provincewide support.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: May 30, 2013, 07:08:08 am

-  In both Manitoba and Ontario, the governing parties began the campaign more than 10 points back yet pulled off a narrow win.  The only difference here is a least the polls caught the shift.  In fact the PCs in both provinces actually did slightly better than the final polls suggested although worse than the pre-election polls.


This is a bit of a myth. In Ontario the Liberals and PCs were locked in a close race in polls in late 2010 and early 2011. The only poll that showed the PC with a double digit lead was taken in late May/early June 2011 - right after the federal Liberals were annhilated in Ontario...by the time the writ was actually dropped in early September polls were all showing the Ontario liberals very much back in contention and that PCs had lost their post federal election "bounce"...not much actually changed during the campaign itself.

Similarly in Manitoba there was one polls in late spring 2011 that had the PCs with a significant lead over the NDP - but again by the time the election campaign actually got started in the fall - the NDP had already recovered. 

Point being that both parties were trailing.  True the comeback started a bit earlier, but the point being there still seems to be a trend of when unsure people stick with the incumbent party.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: May 28, 2013, 04:09:18 pm
BC is different than most provinces as absentee ballots are counted two weeks later rather than on election day.  Also there are way more than in most provinces as how it works in BC is if you show up at any polling station other than your own, you get an absentee ballot which you fill it and it is mailed to your home district.  Otherwise you like in Surrey but work downtown and want to vote a lunch, you just go by any polling station and fill out an absentee ballot.  What is weird, is the NDP always seems to  do really well on the absentee ballots and this was not just this time around, but also the case in 2005 and 2009.  Any special reason why voters using absentee ballots go more heavily NDP?
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election, 2015 on: May 27, 2013, 12:57:19 am
Who has a better chance of losing their seat, Mulcair or Trudeau?

At the moment Mulcair, but a year ago I would have said Trudeau.  In 2015 who knows.  Both are from Quebec where the electorate is even less predictable than in other provinces so its anyone's guess.  One thing I know for sure is the Conservatives will lose both ridings badly, otherwise no defeating the leader like they did with Ignatieff in 2011.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election, 2015 on: May 26, 2013, 07:40:46 pm
Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP Liberals. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

I actually think the NDP has a chance in Papineau.  Many who would have voted NDP last time around voted Bloc because they had a strong candidate (and former MP) running (and the NDP had basically a name-holder, and still came in 2nd).  I'm not sure if Barbot will run again for the Bloc here, but my thinking is that with a popular candidate, the NDP can garner the soft separatist vote, and consolidate the left vote.

The Liberals polling more than 15 points above what they got in Quebec in 2011 and you think their leader is going to lose his seat? Roll Eyes

Not now, but lets remember Ignatieff was polling ten points higher than the 2008 results in Ontario when chosen as leader yet he lost his seat.  I agree its highly unlikely Trudeau would lose his seat, but its definitely possible.  Ironically Harper is probably the only leader who I can say with almost certainty will win his seat.  Even if his party fell to 40 seats, he would still easily win his seat.  In fact it was I believe in their top 10 best one's in the country.  Harper could only lose his if another right wing party emerged much like how the Reform Party snatched that seat from the PCs in 1993 and the WRA came very close to winning most of the ridings here over the PCs who held them in the last provincial election.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election, 2015 on: May 26, 2013, 06:23:09 pm
I should also note even if a dual citizen, you cannot vote in Canada unless you have resided in the country during the past five years.  The reason for this is we don't vote for PM, we vote for local MP so only those in Papineau get to vote for Justin Trudeau just as only those in Calgary Southeast get to vote for Harper.  Rather the leader of whichever party wins the most seats becomes PM.  Its not like most countries where dual citizens can vote or we have overseas constituencies like France or Italy.  However if a dual citizen you can vote upon taking up residency in Canada whereas if not a citizen you have to wait until you become one which is a minimum of 3 years.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: May 26, 2013, 02:38:12 pm
I think the loss came down to three reasons looking at both the exit polls, where the parties gained and loss and the general trend in other provinces.

1.  Many NDP got complacent and didn't show up as well as younger voters who they are stronger amongst are less likely to vote than older ones.  Most older ones remember the 90s well and some even the 70s so attacking the past NDP record works with this group.  Also in the Ipsos exit poll, they asked people how they voted last federal election and last provincial election.  The numbers were in last provincial election 50% Lib and 32% NDP vs. the actual of 46% Lib and 42% NDP.  In the last federal election it was 43% cons, 25% NDP, and 20% Lib vs. the actual of 46% Cons, 33% NDP, and 13% Libs.  Otherwise it appears many NDP voters stayed home.

2.  The Liberals gained seats where it mattered.  Greater Victoria is where you had the green surge who took from both sides, in Vancouver proper the NDP gained and Liberals lost so had that swing occurred province wide we would have an NDP Government.  Rural Vancouver Island saw no change in seats and virtually identical results in votes so that should be the first red flag.  In fact interestingly enough on the island, the Greens had strong third place showings south of Nanaimo, but north of Nanaimo it was the Conservatives who generally came in third and that area is more resource based thus less likely to support the NDP green policies.  Where they really lost though was the Lower Mainland suburbs and Interior/North.  In the Lower Mainland suburbs much like the 905 belt, people care most about the economy and they weren't able to make the case they were the better managers.  In fact while they gained in Vancouver proper (which the Liberals narrowly won in the last two elections but lost this time around), the Liberals gained in Surrey and beat out the NDP unlike the past two elections.  It also appears that Christy Clark was a lot more popular amongst the Indo-Canadian community than Gordon Campbell as in ridings with large Indo-Canadian numbers, the Libearls jumped by around 10% and the NDP went down by a similar amount suggesting the NDP still won this group, but it wasn't a blowout like in 2005 or 2009.  In the Interior/North, the resource industry is very important for jobs so anyone living there knows developing it means more jobs and that will benefit everyone in the community even those who don't work in it.  Dix's plan to cancel the twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline probably hurt him most in the Interior which is the region that would benefit most from this.  The Lower Mainland suburbs have 35 seats (This includes areas in the Fraser Valley outside the GVRD) and the Interior/North have 24 seats and so out of a total of 59 seats, over 70% went Liberal meaning right there alone they were already over the 43 seats mark.

3.  In tough times, people prefer to stick with the devil they know rather than the one they don't. 
- Federally in 2011, the Tories won a majority in an election they were only expected to win a minority
-  In both Manitoba and Ontario, the governing parties began the campaign more than 10 points back yet pulled off a narrow win.  The only difference here is a least the polls caught the shift.  In fact the PCs in both provinces actually did slightly better than the final polls suggested although worse than the pre-election polls.
-  In Alberta in 2012, the polls showed the WRA ahead by 10% yet they lost by that amount.  Otherwise ever since they mess up in Alberta I have started to become more skeptical of polls and this will make me even more skeptical
- In 2012 in Quebec, the PLQ may have loss but every poll suggested their loss would be much worse, instead they came within 4 seats of pulling off a win.
Otherwise their appears to be a pro-incumbent bias.

Finally I think a big point to mention is had the Conservatives gotten over 10% in BC, the NDP would have won.  The collapse of the Conservatives thanks to Cummins ineptness as well as the fact many of them probably feared an NDP government no doubt played a role.  Whenever the "pro free enterprise vote" is united, they almost always win in BC.  The NDP has only been in power for 13 of the last 80 years and each time they got around 40% which with the exception of 2001 they pretty much always get close to 40% and thus win if their opponents are divided while lose if they are united.

Also we should start doing so maps soon.  I would also like to see how the federal districts would have gone and how the provincial ones went last federal election.  Just eyeballing things it appears the eerily similar with most Conservative ones going BC Liberal and most NDP ones going NDP while the few Liberal and Green going equally between both.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election, 2015 on: May 26, 2013, 02:21:49 pm
The election is 2.5 years away so a lot can happen.  Trudeau is more popular because many are tired of the Harper government and looking for an alternative so otherwise he means different things to different people.  Otherwise everyone expects him to do all this great things, but when he comes under the microscope his numbers should fall.  The Liberals could still win under him, but probably only a minority.  I also laughed at the part in the poll that put the numbers in Alberta at 46% cons to 42% Libs.  There is no way this is going to happen.  The Conservatives will get at least 55% in Alberta and the Liberals will be lucky if they can get 25% which they did get back in the 90s under Chretien.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Columbia provincial election 2013 on: May 02, 2013, 05:57:56 pm
In the past few years it seems incumbents usually do better on E-day than what they started out with.  I am guessing a lot of the undecideds stick with what they know than don't.  Still I think it is smart money the NDP will win in BC but it won't be a blowout like the Liberal majority was in 2001.  The BC Liberals should at least have a strong opposition as well as they don't have to worry about the BC Conservatives supplanting them as the centre-right opposition.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: May 02, 2013, 05:56:10 pm
The Ontario one seems to have a lot of weird shapes, looks like a fair bit of gerrymandering.  Anybody able to find out what the results were last election in the various ridings.  I would rather stick with the one before that didn't have the weird shapes. 

Anyways when are the final ones released.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Asian Vote by Ethnic Group on: February 12, 2013, 10:44:51 pm
What professions are Indians in British Columbia associated with?

Their mixed, but many are blue collar workers.  You also have several in the service industry and some professionals too.

I get the feeling that Indians in Canada are more blue collar than the US which would impact their voting habits, no? I think a lot of Indians in the US would feel more comfortable with the Liberals than NDP. Of course, I doubt many would vote for the Conservative party, which means not many will vote for the Republicans who are even more conservative than the Canadian party. Though didn't the Conservatives do well with Asians last time around? Or was that just the Chinese?

The Conservatives did well with the Chinese, but not the East Indians.  Also the visible minority vote was lower for them than the white vote, but they didn't get clobbered like the GOP did.  It was 31% vs. the overall national average of 40%.  By contrast it was 59% for the GOP amongst whites while only 20% amongst minorities so a much smaller gap in Canada.  I should note in Britain also, the East Indians voted overwhelmingly for the Labour Party with Conservative support only in the teens.  Not sure how it breaks down in Australia although I am pretty sure Labor Party does better amongst minorities than the Liberals.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Orange County results by city on: February 12, 2013, 10:42:04 pm
Do you have the percentage totals for each city is it would take hours to manually calculate using this?

They have a summary for the cities for every race. Just scroll down and you will find it. Make sure it is the grand total since they have summaries for the vote by mail, precinct vote as well as the provisional vote.

Which page number as it has 1800 pages.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2013 on: February 12, 2013, 07:08:32 pm
I suspect the NDP will take Duncan's riding.  As for London West, that is not exactly NDP friendly, but not hostile either.  In fact at the federal level, the results in London West have usually been almost bang on what the province wide average was.  Certainly the Eastern sections are friendly for the NDP, but the problem is the Western half is quite affluent and if the NDP gets clobbered badly enough them that could hurt them.  Think Toronto Centre which on the surface seems NDP friendly but the inclusion of Rosedale pretty much sinks their chances.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Asian Vote by Ethnic Group on: February 12, 2013, 06:58:40 pm
What professions are Indians in British Columbia associated with?

Their mixed, but many are blue collar workers.  You also have several in the service industry and some professionals too.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Orange County results by city on: February 12, 2013, 06:57:44 pm
Do you have the percentage totals for each city is it would take hours to manually calculate using this?
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: why are there so many more ultrarepublican than ultrademocrat states? on: February 10, 2013, 02:37:17 pm
Its true in 2004, there were far more states where Bush got over 60% than Kerry, however this time around, there were more states where Romney got over 60%, but fewer electoral votes in those states than the ones Obama got over 60%

Romney over 60%

Idaho (4)
Utah (6)
Wyoming (3)
Nebraska (5)
Kansas (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (6)
Kentucky (Cool
Alabama (9)
West Virginia (5)

Total 10 states - 59 electoral votes

Obama over 60%

California (55)
Hawaii (4)
Vermont (3)
Massachusetts (11)
Rhode Island (4)
New York (29)
Maryland (10)
DC (3)

Total 7 states + DC for 119 electoral votes.

Now back in 2004, Bush got over 60% in Texas, while Kerry got under 60% in both California and New York thus why on the electoral vote it was heavily tilted towards Kerry.  In 2008 Obama got over 60% in more states than McCain in addition to the 7 this time, he also got over 60% in Illinois, Connecticut, and Delaware which is an additional 30 EV.  By contrast McCain only got over 60% in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Alabama.

So in summary there really aren't a whole lot more ultra Republican than ultra Democrat.  I think the big difference is unlike 20, 30, or 40 years ago, the nation is a lot more polarized so most sections tend to go strongly towards one side or another as opposed to being competitive.  You have the Northeast and West Coast which are solidly Democrat (Alaska being solidly GOP, while Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are the only competitive states left in the Northeast), while the South is solidly GOP (Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida and to a lesser extent Georgia being the exceptions).  The plains are also solidly GOP while the Mountain West is a mix of swing states (Colorado and Nevada, while New Mexico lean Democrat and Arizona lean Republican) and solid GOP (Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana).  The Midwest is really the only area that is still very competitive as most states asides from the Plains states which are solidly GOP or Illinois which is solidly Democrat most are winneable by both parties under the right conditions.  Indiana and Missouri have strong GOP tilts, while Minnesota and Michigan have a slight Democrat lean.  Wisconsin and Iowa are usually only a percentage or two more Democrat than the nation as a whole while Ohio is still totally a swing state.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 47,076 people... on: February 10, 2013, 02:20:42 pm
How about the 21,381 people in DC who voted for the party whose core message is to destroy DC's economy?

Lobbyists.

I am surprised Romney didn't get more votes in DC since asides from history when you look at the demographics I would think Romney's support should be in the teens.  This means Obama got close to 80% of the white male vote and there are few if any other locations where Obama got over 2/3 of the white male vote.  In most parts of the US, the white males vote GOP but at the very least even in the more Democrat areas you always have quite a sizeable minority of white males who vote GOP.
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