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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 10, 2014, 01:43:33 pm
I should also ad while I Prefer more the Bill Davis type Toryism over Harris type the reality is Davis won back then because voter turnout was around 80%, whereas today its only around 50%.  People furthest from the centre are most likely to show up so that may explain why the Liberals are swinging leftward and PCs rightward, otherwise more about appealing to the base.  I also look at the centre over a time frame so while Hudak's cuts in normal circumstances would be too extreme, the deficit is so big it requires dramatic action and we've swung too far to the left so four years of equal amount on the right would balance things out.  My main beef with Hudak is tax cuts as those should be put on hold until after the budget is balanced.  As for corporate tax cuts, I would rather do what New York State does whereby new companies in economically depressed areas get a tax holiday for the first few years to encourage start ups in areas with high unemployment rather than across the board corporate tax cuts.  If our corporate taxes were higher than most jurisdictions, I would favour cutting them, but they are not, we fall in the middle of the pack as well as anyone who has studied economics would know about the Laffer Curve whereby cutting taxes means more revenue when they are really high, but when already competitive it means less.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 10, 2014, 01:39:46 pm

Wynne's idea of running to the left could blow up in her face.  She's basically assuming Hudak will be so toxic to centrist voters they will hold their nose and vote Liberal.  What she is really doing is leaving the centre wide open so either those votes will go PC if they run a good campaign or if they run a lousy one, they will just stay home, which seems quite plausible.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 10, 2014, 01:37:35 pm
I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

So otherwise a grand coalition sort of like you have right now in Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium.

My question is how do those work out as I know in the English speaking world they would be DOA considering how much the right and left hate each other.  But it seems in Europe there isn't the same animosity you see in the English speaking countries.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread on: May 09, 2014, 07:23:41 am
the Liberals will gain in countries where they are more pro free enterprise, but the left leaning Liberals won't

Um, no. The poster boys for right-wing liberals the German FDP will be reduced to a microparty, as will the UK "Orange Booker" Lib Dems. In the Netherlands the pro-business liberals are desperately unpopular, while the left-wing liberals D66 are on the ascent. There is a significant chance that the Italian right-wing liberals won't even be in parliament and the right-wing liberals in Sweden are fairly unpopular at the moment. The only significant bright side at present for right-wing liberals is NEOS in Austria...

My following of European politics has generally shown the right has on average being going up each election round and the left down.  Now much of the gain on the right are right wing populist parties like PVV, National Front, FPO (although they may have peaked and be declining), UKIP, AfD, True Finns, Golden Dawn etc.  It seems those parties tend to do a better job of picking up former left wing supporters while the centre-right are able to hold their ground.  Generally hard right parties tend to do best when the economy is struggling thus blame the EU, blame immigrants, while are weaker when the economy is doing well.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 08, 2014, 10:17:43 pm
Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again. 

No. It's 10 to 20 points behind in the polls.

That may seem like a long shot, but I've seen parties come behind by further.  In France 2012 and Denmark 2011, the left held similar leads yet in both cases just barely scraped by.  It seems in much of Europe, polls tend to underestimate the right in its support, at least amongst mainstream right wing parties (they often overestimate the hard right).
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread on: May 08, 2014, 09:43:29 pm
My prediction is the EPP-ED will hold its ground, the Liberals will gain in countries where they are more pro free enterprise, but the left leaning Liberals won't, and the National Conservatives and other right wing groupings will gain big time.  The Greens will hold ground and possibly gain, but the lost amongst the PES will mean the left is weaker in the EU parliament.  If one trend is clear, Europe is swinging rightwards and I believe this election will confirm this.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - Super election year 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: May 08, 2014, 09:41:30 pm
Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 08, 2014, 09:38:34 pm
Anybody have a list of what ridings the leaders have visited?  I've noticed from watching past elections, what ridings the leaders visit is often a good indication of where things are close as the party's have more detailed internal polls.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 08, 2014, 01:48:57 pm
There is the Georgia Straight in BC. Besides the TorStar is more about defeating the PC's so if the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals they will change their tune quickly. They did endorse the NDP last federal election.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 07, 2014, 05:06:50 pm
Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.

Independent? You better hope there's going to be an independent running.

That's federally, provincially I am voting PC, but federally I will go Independent or a third party. The Libertarian party always puts up a candidate my riding so although not nearly as ideological as them, that's probably who I will go for. I am though hoping Harper resigns and then I might vote Tory. I might also just vote for whomever is the best local candidate so definitely not Liberal since it's Adam Vaughan who I cannot stand.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 07, 2014, 04:31:14 pm
Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 06, 2014, 05:33:13 pm

I like the idea behind the Liberals's plan, but the numbers are sketchy. Take the $45k example. How do they think they can fund 60% of a CPP payout on 40% of the CPP contribution rate?

Definitely could be a vote winner, but could also hurt them.  Most people like the idea of more secure pensions, but if it means having over $1,000 docked from their paycheque it might be less popular.  Add to the fact many small businesses may lay off or close shop and so depending on how much noise small businesses make this could have an impact.  Finally those most likely to support this are over 50 (who generally vote) and thus are close to retirement and concerned about lack of savings.  The problem is they would just pay more with little benefits as payouts are based on contributions so they wouldn't have paid in enough to get the full benefits.  Never mind because its provincial only there is the issue of those who only live part of their working life in Ontario.  The one's who will benefit most from this are those in their 20s and 30s, but that group has a low turnout as well as few people at that age are thinking much about retirement.  So it will be interesting.

As a disclosure, it won't affect me since I work in the banking industry which is under federal regulations as well as I have a workplace pension so I won't have to pay into it.  I was though worried if it impacted my company that there would be layoffs or annual salary increases would be put on hold for a while.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 06, 2014, 05:28:49 pm
My understanding is while the governing party gets first crack at forming, usually its customary if the government wins fewer seats than another party for the leader to visit the lieutenant governor and resign.  For example in both 1979 and 2006 federally, the Liberals in theory would have been given first go at trying to form a government, but in neither case it happened as Trudeau in 1979 and Martin in 2006 submitted their resignations to the GG and thus opening the way for Joe Clark in 1979 and Stephen Harper in 2006 to form government.  Now to be fair there are some differences as in 1979, the PCs were only six seats shy of a majority and there were six Socred MPs who likely wouldn't have supported the Liberals.  In 2006, The BQ likely wouldn't have backed the Liberals, whereas in the next election its probably fair to say the NDP would prefer a Liberal government over PC.  The only barrier is due to how long the Liberals have been in power and the amount of baggage they've taken it might just set up the conditions to ensure the PCs win a majority next time around while if they pass the throne speech and let the PCs introduce a budget which will include some unpopular spending cuts there will be less of a backlash or they could go to another election in which things would be more favourable for them.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 05, 2014, 04:37:58 pm
Forum, projected

... suspect; The Liberals win back Vaughan? The NDP losses Kenora-Rainy River and Timmins-James Bay? Those I doubt seriously

There is no way the PCs will win Guelph, that's a university town while London North Centre is quite tough unless the centre-left splits perfectly as well as Deb Matthews despite her controversy elsewhere is well liked in her riding.  St. Catharines barely went Liberal last time around so although Jim Bradley's popularity may have carried him through the Harris years, I am not so sure it will work this time around.  Also Forum and 308 seem show a stronger swing towards the PCs in the 416 area code than 905.  Usually PC support is 15-20 points lower in the 416 than 905 and usually the best 416 riding is only around 5 points better for the PCs than the worse 905 riding.  In addition I've noticed both provincially and federally, usually the Conservative's best riding in popular vote in the 416 tends to closely match their overall province wide average.

Kenora-Rainy River was only close last time around as it lacked an incumbent, but with an incumbent now, the NDP should hold this.  Federally the Tories won largely due to the opposition of the carbon tax in 2008, while held this due to both incumbency as well as opposition to the gun registry.  I suspect 5-10% of voters in Northern Ontario (I mean true north not central) voted Tory federally for that reason alone and wouldn't have otherwise so I suspect provincially they will follow their usual voting patterns.  In Timmins-James Bay, apparently the PCs and Liberals cut a deal that the Liberals would run a paper candidate and instead help the PCs since they thought by uniting behind one party they could unseat Gilles Bisson.  If it didn't work then, it probably won't this time.  In many ways what you saw there is not too different than what you have in BC where the Blue Liberals and Conservatives unite under the BC Liberals to keep the NDP out.  Also in Sault Ste. Marie you saw this in the other direction so for whatever reason it seems in some ridings the swing is mostly between the PCs and Liberals not Liberals/NDP.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 05, 2014, 04:30:25 pm
Weird. My projection has the NDP with a healthy lead in Timmins, but I'm factoring in the EKOS poll which had the Liberals ahead in the 705.

Weird results I have in my projection:

Barrie going Liberal (due to EKOS poll)
Scarborough-Guildwood going PC (close by-election skewing my numbers)
Ottawa South going PC (ditto- but plausible)
Kenora-Rainy River going PC (due to EKOS's very small 807 sample)

Also, I suspect Sudbury will go NDP due to no Liberal incumbent, but my model has the Liberal ahead at this point. Once we know who the candidates are, I will have a better idea of how to tweak my model.

Barrie is fairly solidly Tory so unless Hudak does something incredibly stupid I am pretty sure it will stay PC. 

Scarborough-Guildwood went Liberal federally so the Liberals would have to see an even bigger implosion to lose this.  Its only shown as competitive due to the by-election results which skew things  slightly.  For example I don't think Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a lock for the PCs, I could easily see it swinging back to the Liberals.

Ottawa South - This is where uniform swings don't work.  I've noticed in the Ottawa ridings, probably because its a political team, riding results tend to be very consistent election after election.  The Liberals never fall below 40% even in a bad election and never get over 50% even in a landslide one while the PCs always stay above 30% no matter how bad they do and seem unable to crack the 40% mark no matter how well they do while the NDP is always under 20%.

Sudbury could stay Liberal, but if an election were called today, I think the NDP would have an edge there.

The problem with the Northern Ontario is areas south of North Bay have very different voting patterns than areas north of it.  So the results need to be taken with caution as the PCs are probably in the upper 40s and maybe even low 50s in the Barrie to North Bay area which is normally considered Central not Northern Ontario while they are probably in the 20s in what is normally thought of as Northern Ontario, otherwise north of North Bay.  By contrast Central Ontario asides from the 905 belt is one of the NDP's weakest areas whereas by contrast Northern Ontario is one of its strongest.  The Liberals on the other hand are fairly evenly distributed so if they are only at 30% they are looking at close to a route.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 05, 2014, 12:11:30 am
You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.

I think it's a toss up at this point. Calling it solid is a little presumptive.

Also, I'm not sure about your call regarding Scarborough-Agincourt. The riding went Liberal even during the Mike Harris era, so why do you think it will go Tory now? Is the Chinese community switching to the conservatives like in BC? Do you think they may feel uncomfortable with the Liberals being led by a lesbian?

That reminds me of the OLP leadership race. Looks like Agincourt backed Sousa:





Scarborough-Agincourt is a long shot but the reason I mention it as after York Centre, it was the PCs second best showing in the 416 and they only lost by 11 points which is not an impossible gap to overcome.  Also as mentioned the Chinese generally tend to be somewhat more fiscally conservative than say the South Asian or Black community who are more left leaning thus why the Tories might struggle more with them.  In addition Jim Karygiannis as much as he was a sleazball really knew how to win amongst his constituents and had he not run I suspect the results would have been a three way race much like Scarborough Centre and Scarborough-Guildwood in the last federal election.

At the same time I still think it will stay Liberal, I am only saying that if the PCs get above 30% in the 416 area code this would be one of the first to fall, but for now I call it for the Liberals.  Also as much as Hudak is like Mike Harris I don't think you can assume the results will necessarily duplicate.  Mike Harris got close to 60% in the 905 belt and even if that swings in the PC's favour, there is no way Hudak will get anywhere remotely close to what Mike Harris got in this area even in ridings like Burlington, Oakville, and Mississauga South where the demographics haven't changed much.  By contrast Mike Harris struggled in rural Southwestern Ontario which I think Hudak with the exception of Essex which is a mix of suburban and rural, Hudak has locked up. 
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: May 04, 2014, 10:54:33 pm
Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I am guessing in this case they would go by the last riding one lived in when they left Canada.  My question is what about those who have never lived in Canada but got citizenship by being born to a Canadian born parent, what happens then?

No clue. Most likely government or Elections Canada will have to find a solution (or appeal, as the judge refused to grant them a stay).

One solution might be to have overseas constituencies like France and Italy do that way you wouldn't have the issue of people voting in ridings they no longer live in, but they will still be able to exercise their right to vote.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 04, 2014, 10:13:33 pm
You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: May 04, 2014, 10:10:27 pm
Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I am guessing in this case they would go by the last riding one lived in when they left Canada.  My question is what about those who have never lived in Canada but got citizenship by being born to a Canadian born parent, what happens then?
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: May 04, 2014, 08:48:33 pm
Any guesses on the next federal by-elections?

Here are my takes

Macleod

Solid Conservative so I suspect an easy Conservative win here.  Interestingly enough John Barlow won is a moderate and comes from the provincial PCs rather than Wildrose Alliance.

Fort-McMurray-Athabasca

Probably Tory, but notorious for some of the worst turnouts in Canada as well as a highly transient population, an upset is at least plausible here.  If the Tories lose here, though I suspect there will be a lot more pressure on Harper to resign as leader.

Whitby-Oshawa

As a typical 905 belt, should lean Tory, but a Liberal win cannot be ruled out nonetheless if the Tories cannot win here, they are unlikely to win nationally so I also suspect a loss unless its by a very small margin would also hurt Harper's control over caucus too.

Scarborough-Agincourt

Fairly solidly Liberal although as much of a sleazebag as Jim Karygiannis was, he was quite popular in his riding and in fact its quite possible the Tories would have won this as well as the NDP would done much better had he not been the candidate.  Nonetheless considering the improvement of Liberal numbers nationally and decline of the Tories it should stay Liberal.

Trinity-Spadina

This is my riding and certainly the choice of Adam Vaughan helps the Liberals although the NDP could still win.  That being said I think Adam Vaughan was a bad choice overall as he is quite left wing and if he is given too high a profile it could hurt the Liberals in the 905 belt which is more Blue Liberal rather than Progressive Liberal territory and its the 905 belt, not downtown Toronto who will determine the next government.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 04, 2014, 08:41:41 pm
First Forum poll: 38/33/22/6. Not that different from their last poll.



As usual their seat projection model is totally preposterous - there is no way whatsoever that the the Liberals could remain the largest party if they trail the PCs in the province wide popular vote by 5 points. I think they have a big their model that they refuse to acknowledge or fix because it is nonsensical...yet of course the Toronto Star (who's payroll ought to be classified as a Liberal party campaign expense) play up this kooky model because it fits in with their strategy.

Fully agree.  If you look at the federal results, this is pretty similar to the 2008 federal election in Ontario where it was 51 Cons, 38 Lib, and 17 NDP so while not likely to be exactly the same, it would probably be along that line.  As for big margins in rural areas, that's a bit exaggerated.  The only rural ridings I expect you will see a strong PC jump is where they unseated a Liberal cabinet minister who is not running again like Perth-Wellington and Prince Edward-Hastings.  Southwestern Ontario has a lot of blue collar towns so I suspect in the rural ridings PC support will be in the 40s or low 50s at tops which is not far off what they got federally.  Only in Eastern Ontario will they rack up big margins which they already did last time around.  Ottawa and the surrounding area is quite political and there are far fewer swing voters than other areas meaning swings tend to be smaller than province wide as well as turnout is often over 70% so its less of an issue of who does and doesn't show up.  Results federally in this area have been pretty much the same in 2006, 2008, and 2011 despite swings elsewhere.  By contrast the 905 belt tends to swing in whatever direction the province does but at a greater magnitude.  The PCs are hated in downtown Toronto so they will got in the teens or single digits here meaning few wasted votes.

As a side note, some assume the PCs will get 70% or 80% in rural Ontario, which is nonsense.  Right wing parties only get those numbers in rural areas that have very low population densities.  In Canada that would be the Prairies while US it would be the plains and Mountain West (I ignored the South as voting is very racially polarized there), while in the rural counties of the Great Lakes or Northeast, the GOP usually only gets in the 50s or 60s whose population densities are more in line with rural Ontario.  Likewise in Britain, the Conservatives seldom get above 60% and almost never over 70% and in fact in Western Europe, even in rural areas you don't see right wing parties racking up ridiculous margins like you do in the Prairies or parts of the US and rural Western Europe has similar density to rural Ontario if not slightly higher.  Otherwise a riding with a density of 50 people/square km is quite different from one at 5 people per square km.  Otherwise I could see the Liberals losing by one or two points in the popular vote and winning seat wise, but if the PCs are five points ahead, they will win the most seats.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 04, 2014, 08:32:56 pm
I can see Mulcair also campaigning, but definitely not Harper.

Considering how Harper's numbers are lousy, I suspect he will stay out.  Besides a Liberal win would actually help the Tories federally in 2015 as there will be a balanced budget federally, while the deficit is growing provincially and many people on Justin Trudeau's team are from the Ontario Liberals.  By contrast Hudak will likely have to make some tough choices if elected which will be unpopular initially and likely to hurt the Tories federally at least in the swing ridings.  Lets remember Ontario, more often than not votes differently federally and provincially.  The base of each party votes the same way but the swing votes tend to go Tory one way and Liberal the other.  Now individual MPs campaigning might help in a few cases.  Even if Hudak wins a majority, I would be surprised if he wins any riding that didn't go Tory federally so in many ways the 73 seats they won federally is sort of the best case scenario for the Ontario PCs, although they can afford to miss 19 of them and still win a majority.

Considering Justin Trudeau's popularity, I am pretty sure he will campaign to some degree although I am not sure how much different it will make.

Thomas Mulcair will probably endorse Howarth but not campaign too heavily although I am sure the 22 MPs will be active.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario election, Spring 2014? on: May 04, 2014, 08:28:12 pm
Here is my thinking so far and considering how inaccurate polls have been of recent never mind changes during elections, things could turn out differently.

416

Liberals have a solid lead here but PCs in the upper 20s and NDP in the 20s.  It should go predominately Liberal although the NDP should win some seats in the downtown core while if the Tories can move up a few percentage points they could pick up a few suburban seats, otherwise areas that went Tory federally and Rob Ford municipally.  As for riding specifics, here are one's I can see changing

If the PCs get some momentum or Liberals crater: Etobicoke Centre, York Centre, Willowdale, Scarborough-Agincourt

Likely to swing back Liberal but could stay PC: Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Vulnerable NDP ridings to Liberals: Davenport and Trinity-Spadina

Possible NDP Pick ups: York South Weston and Scarborough-Rouge River, while if things go really well, York West and Scarborough Southwest.

All ridings not mentioned should stay the same unless something dramatic happens.

905 suburbs

Most polls show the PCs slightly ahead but the 905 belt is really the key on who wins.  The Liberals need to keep the PCs to the fringe while the PCs need to move inwards towards Toronto if they want to win.

Solid PC: Durham, Whitby-Oshawa, Thornhill, and York Simcoe

Likely PC unless they screw up: Burlington, Halton, and Newmarket-Aurora

Solid Liberal unless they crater: Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Vaughan, Brampton West, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Streetsville.

Vulnerable Liberal ridings that could go PC: Ajax-Pickering, Richmond Hill, Oak Ridges-Markham, Brampton-Springdale, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, and Oakville

Likely PC but could go NDP: Oshawa

Likely NDP: Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Hamilton-Niagara

Solid NDP: Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, and Welland (the PCs could be competitive here, but I would be shocked if they actually win)

Solid PC: Niagara West-Glanbrook

Likely PC but could go NDP: Niagara Falls

Liberal/PC tossup: St. Catharines

Leans Liberal but could go PC: Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale

Central Ontario

This area is solidly PC, but the definition is somewhat unclear, so I will just list the ridings below.

Solid PC: Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey, Dufferin-Caledon, and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Likely PC unless they screw-up: Barrie

Southwestern Ontario

The Liberals are in big trouble here, while the NDP was strong for a while but seems to have faded since Hudak dropped his right to work proposals.  Most polls show the PCs ahead never mind this area is fairly rural thus would naturally tilt PC although not as heavily as Central or Eastern Ontario

Solid PC: Wellington-Halton Hills, Kitchener-Conestoga, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Huron-Bruce, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, and Sarnia-Lambton

Solid Liberal unless they crater: Guelph and London North Centre

Solid NDP: London-Fanshawe, Windsor-Tecumseh, and Windsor West

Likely PC unless NDP gets a lot of momentum: Cambridge

PC if centre-left splits, Liberal if its united: Kitchener Centre (otherwise the non-right wing vote would have to coalesce around the Liberals)

Leans PC, but could go Liberal and possibly even NDP: Brant

NDP if Liberals collapse, PCs if split: Kitchener-Waterloo and London West (I predict the PCs will get between 35-40% in both ridings so how the other 60-65% split will determine who wins)

Leans NDP but could go PC: Essex

Northern Ontario

The Liberals are quite unpopular here so the NDP should gain while any Liberal holds will be due to popularity of the incumbent not support of the party.  The PCs will hold the two seats they hold, but highly unlikely to pick up any other.  The federal Conservatives did a bit better due to opposition of the gun registry which was widely unpopular in Northern Ontario, but this is not an issue in the provincial election, so those who normally didn't vote Tory, but did just to get the gun registry scrapped will return to traditional voting patterns.

Solid NDP: Kenora-Rainy River, Timmins-James Bay, Nickel Belt, Algoma-Manitoulin, and Timiskming Cochrane.

Leans NDP:  Sudbury

Slight edge to NDP over Liberals: Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Thunder Bay-Superior North

Solid Liberal: Sault Ste. Marie

Solid PC: Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka

Eastern Ontario

The PCs have a strong lead here, but unlike other parts of Ontario due to lack of manufacturing base, they tend to run up the margins in the rural areas more so than other parts of the province.  This is the one area where I think they could get over 60% in some ridings.  Nonetheless there are a couple of marginal Liberal ridings that could swing PC, while NDP will be lucky to win any seats

Solid PC: Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, and Prince Edward-Hastings.

Solid Liberal: Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier

Likely Liberal but could go NDP: Ottawa Centre and Kingston & the Islands

Likely PC unless they screw up: Northumberland-Quinte West

Bellwether ridings: Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Liberals if left unite, PC if split: Peterborough
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2013 on: August 12, 2013, 08:21:54 pm
Interestingly enough, I should add Provencher did go Liberal as recently as 1997, but considering they got in single digits last time around, I don't see this swinging back to them anytime soon.  Brandon-Souris went Liberal in 1993, but that was more due to the implosion of the PCs and the fact the Reform Party at that time was only really strong in BC and Alberta.  It did however go PC in 1997 and 2000 rather than the Reform/Alliance but that was mostly due to the fact the candidate was Rick Borotsik a former mayor of Brandon.  Essentially he got many of the moderate Reformers as well as many Liberals strategically voted for him to keep the Reform/Alliance out.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2013 on: August 12, 2013, 08:17:17 pm
In terms of each one here are my thoughts

Bourassa - Solid Liberal

The Trudeau honeymoon is wearing off but not fully so while the NDP may very well take this in 2015 at the moment I suspect the Liberals should hold this fairly easily.  The BQ only won this once in 1993 and it was a lot more Francophone than today.  The Tories will likely get in single digits here.  It did however go PC in 1988, but off course most of Quebec did so not a relevant comparison.

Toronto Centre - Solid Liberal

The Liberals will win this by being competitive throughout the riding.  The Tories do well in Rosedale but will get clobbered in Cabbagetown and Regent Park, while the NDP should win those two, but get clobbered in Rosedale.  Why this is attractive for the NDP is under the new boundaries this riding may be far more favourable, especially if Rosedale is lopped off so getting a list of identified supporters can give the candidate a leg up in 2015.  The Tories aren't relative here although they probably will get over 10%.  Interestingly enough this went PC in the 70s and 80s but that was when they were far more Red Tory than today.  I somehow doubt David Crombie would be too comfortable with today's Tories.

Provencher - Solidly Tory

This was one of 18 ridings where the Tories cracked the 70% mark, so enough said.

Brandon-Souris - Solidly Tory

The NDP could do quite well in Brandon, but the problem is half the riding's population lives in the rural areas and the Tories tend to pile up massive majorities in those areas whereas even if the NDP wins the Brandon polls it won't be by a big margin.  Also with the Justin Trudeau honeymoon still winding down, I suspect the Liberals will do better than in 2011 although still come in third nonetheless.
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