Not saying an NDP win isn't possible, I am just saying not likely.  As for Tory vote being mostly concentrated in Rural Ontario, that is true in seats won, but you look at the riding by riding breakdown close to 2/3 of ridings their support was within 10% of their provincial average, whereas in the NDP their results in the ridings they win tends to be wayyy above the provincial average while there is usually more ridings in the province where they are below the provincial average than above.  As for the 905 belt, the NDP could pick up more but I figure it is unlikely you will get too many who voted Conservative federally going NDP provincially, so any riding the Conservatives got above 45% in the last federal election is probably off limits, which is a good chunk of the 905 belt.  As for the Tories winning in the 905 belt, I think the best is to look at past federal results as the 2007 results closely matched the 2004 results federally and the 2011 results provincially closely matched the 2006 results federally, so if you saw a repeat of the 2008 results federally play out provincially it would result in a Tory minority.  I doubt they will get the 73 seats their federal counterparts got, but 51 seats like they got 2008 is certainly possible and even as little as 45 seats would probably be enough for a weak minority.  Off course the NDP and Liberals could form a coalition if the Tories get 53 seats or less but this has its risks too.

Very, very insteresting. Wonder if the NDP will go (even) more populist (using coded rhetoric) in this next campaign to attract economically left voters who are uncomfortable with a Lesbian leader.  Could help in Northern Ontario.

And blow off their existing base?  Hardly.  More likely they'll allow the PCs to take that tack, which might wind up dropping some of those Northern Ontario seats into the NDP lap, anyway...

Incidentally, I read somewhere that this might well make Ontario the largest jurisdiction in the world with a LGBT leader (i.e. population-wise, Ontario's larger than Belgium)

I think Ontario is the largest jurisdiction to have ever elected an openly LGBT leader.  I think it is important to mention the open part as I suspect many jurisdictions have elected a gay leader that they weren't aware of. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if the US has had a gay president who kept quiet about it.

Also I would like to add a few more and these are all rough estimates.

Norwegian-Americans 50-49 for Obama
Swedish-Americans 51-48 for Romney
Danish-Americans 60-39 for Romney
Finnish-Americans 51-48 for Obama

Dutch-Americans - 62-37 for Romney
Belgian-Americans 50-49 for Romney
Welsh-Americans - 55-44 for Romney
French-Americans 52-47 for Obama*

Swiss-Americans - 52-47 for Romney
Czech-Americans 53-46 for Romney
Slovak-Americans 51-48 for Obama
Slovenian-Americans - 53-46 for Obama
Hungarian-Americans 51-48 for Obama

Portuguese-Americans - 60-40 for Obama
Arab-Americans 64-35 for Obama
Armenian-Americans 55-45 for Obama
Iranian-Americans 74-25 for Obama

Japanese-Americans - 64-35 for Obama
Hawaiian-Americans 69-30 for Obama

Sub-Saharan African - 84-15 for Obama
Afro-Caribbean 88-11 for Obama

Puerto Ricans - 87-12 for Obama
Dominican-Americans - 83-16 for Obama
Central Americans - 67-30 for Obama
South Americans - 74-25 (Colombian-Americans were probably over 40% for Romney)

*Cajuns went over 80% for Romney, while French-Canadians mostly in New England states probably were in the upper 50s for Obama.

I was curious about the Greek vote and I have been searching for a poll, and I finally found one:

http://usa.greekreporter.com/2012/11/04/gr-election-poll-shows-greek-americans-back-obama/

With the U.S. elections fast approaching on Nov. 6, the survey found that of 696 respondents – tilted toward those who identified themselves as Democrats, some 39.4 percent – that Obama was the choice of 344, or 49.4 percent. Romney got 148 votes, or 21.3 percent

Serbs and Croats yes, while Lithuanians as well as Polish were probably pretty close to 50/50 as many live in smaller centres or suburbs.

The urban white working-class is still strongly Democratic. For this reason, I'd assume that Obama also won Serbs, Croats, Lithuanians, and Poles (the latter being much closer than the former 3).

Bush voted for Obama.

I doubt it, although his daughter Barbara Bush might have as her viewpoints on a whole wack of issues seem rather liberal.

Likewise in the Deep South, the white vote went massively GOP and I assume that includes those in unions.

There aren't that many union members in the Deep South anymore, because of the violent anti-union thuggery there.

True there are not a lot, but even of the one's there are I am pretty sure Romney handidly won them.  Lets remember not all union members vote the way their leadership tells them to.  Many nowadays have above average salaries so someone who wants lower taxes would appeal to them.  Also the idea of smaller government is a view widely held by many Americans across the country from a wide variety of groups so running a platform of bigger government and making the US more like Canada and Europe it is not something that will win you many votes even amongst unionized workers.  Most union workers are quite patriotic too and want to maintain American values.

We determined in another thread that Obama won Charleston and Springfield handily.

Springfield probably went for Obama but it would have been close.  Unless the surrounding areas of Sangamon county went 70% for Romney which seems unlikely it would have been close.  I am guessing Romney got around 60% in the surrounding areas meaning Obama would have narrowly won it.  Kanawha county went 55-43 for Romney so unless the rest of the county went massively for Romney I think he could have won Charleston.  Lets remember it is fairly white and is not a large centre, so I don't think it is a given Obama won this unless you have the actual raw numbers.

In terms of election this year, Quebec is possible but not likely, so here are my thoughts.

Nova Scotia - Likely a Liberal win, the question is will it be a majority or a minority.  The NDP if lucky still might pull off a minority as they aren't trailing by any more than they were in 2011 in Manitoba as this point or McGuinty in Ontario so if they run a solid campaign and the Liberals mess up, they could pull it off.  PCs don't really stand much of a chance.  There best hope is the Liberals get in and screw up and then they are able to present themselves as the alternative to both.

British Columbia - Unless Adrian Dix does something incredibly stupid, I expect an NDP majority with around 60 seats.  It won't be a massacre like 2001 thanks to the decline of the BC Conservatives and the fact you do still have a sizeable number who will never vote NDP under any circumstance.  I do though think Christy Clark will lose her own riding as Vancouver-Point Grey has always been a marginal BC Liberal riding, never a really safe one, not like Vancouver-Quilchena which I expect them to hold.

Ontario - Anything is possible, but the Liberals face a real uphill battle to win.  If an election comes this spring Wynne may be able to ride on the honeymoon most new leaders get, but unless there is one called soon, not likely.  An NDP win seems possible but not likely as their vote is extremely concentrated so even if they win the popular vote it won't necessarily mean more seats as they tend to pile up big margins in Northern Ontario, union towns like Windsor and Hamilton and downtown Toronto.  The PCs will most likely win but only with a minority as a lot of Hudak's proposals are a bit too right wing for most.  If the party was a little more centrist, I think they would have little trouble getting a majority.  Its not so much anyone particular policy, but rather the overall tone.  In some ways too bad as I like policies like privatizing the LCBO, allowing beer and wine corner store sales, ending the Beer Store monopoly, right to work laws, privatizing OPG and Hydro One, ending the WSIB monopoly on worker's insurance.  On the other hand I don't support further tax cuts, the welfare reforms seem to go a bit too far, and although I support scrapping all day kindergarten, I don't support cutting 10,000 educational positions.  I also don't support privatizing the OLG as unlike the LCBO there is really no way to make up the lost revenue although I am all for contracting out operations of OLG Casinos as is already the case for the most part.  Also I am opposed to further downloading to the municipalities which have enough financial problems as it is.

Interestingly for the first time ever, half of the provinces in Canada have female premiers.  Now only 3 of them have won in a general election and I think it is fair to say Christy Clark has almost no chance of being re-elected, while Ontario is a wildcard as there is not just Kathleen Wynne, but also Andrea Howarth.  Nonetheless I think a PC minority is the most likely outcome.

For starters this is bad news for the NDP as Kathleen Wynne comes from the left so she might win back some union support as well as soft NDP supporters.  I am not sure it will help Hudak much as his support has consistently been between 33-37%, but unlike with Paputello I doubt he will lose any support.  The fact she is a lesbian though may help Hudak amongst some of the ethnic voters as a lot of the immigrant communities in the GTA are quite socially conservative.  While I am not totally sure about this, some claim George Smithermann being gay hurt him amongst ethnic voters and helped Rob Ford win.  I doubt it will hurt her though amongst any other group as the only other group that might have a problem are the religious rural voters who are already in the PC camp to begin with. 

I suspect like any new leader she will get a bounce in the poll, but it will wear off with time, so if she wants to win, my advice would be to find a way to trigger an election ASAP as the longer she waits the less likely it is for her to win.  Had Christy Clark gone to an election right after being chosen she might have had a fighting chance unlike now. 

Considering whites in the South tend to be poorer than elsewhere and vote quite heavily Republican, I suspect the variance amongst whites was rather small.  Lets remember places like Manhattan and San Francisco have lots of rich whites and I am pretty sure Obama won those.  The real reason lower income people were more likely to go for Obama is the percentage amongst this group who are African-American or Latino is well above the national average.  I wouldn't be surprised if more than 50% of lower income households were minorities.  Its also the same with age as although the age divide exists with whites, its not nearly as large as exit polls suggest since the 18-29 demographic is much less white than the 65+ demographic.

I am pretty sure they voted for Romney.  Lets remember this demographic is overwhelmingly white male and pretty much however you slice it, the white male vote favoured Romney.  Only in the more liberal states did Obama win amongst white males.  Unlike in some countries in Europe, income tends to have less impact on one's voting behavior the age, marital status, religion, gender, and race.  Obama's stronger showing amongst low income people probably has more to do with the fact there are more minorities in lower income groups, more young people (most people in their 20s unless they live at home tend to have lower lower incomes as you work your way up the chain), females, unmarried single occupant households (even if their individual income is above the national average, there are more individuals who make under $50,000 a year than above so a household with two working occupants will likely more than one).  Also even if Romney is seen as being for the rich, there isn't a strong left wing solidarity in the US.  Most miners cannot stand the environmentalists and would much rather vote for someone who will ignore them than listen to them.  In the Pacific Northwest, Forks is a strong logging town and it usually goes over 60% GOP due to their dislike of the environmentalist.  Likewise in the Deep South, the white vote went massively GOP and I assume that includes those in unions.  Likewise those in public sector unions are far more likely to vote Democrat than those in private sector unions.  The police, firefighters, and border patrol are about the only public sector unions I can think of that Romney may have won amongst.  One's like postal workers I am sure went pretty heavily for Obama.

Excellent work Memphis, I did this awhile back in various counties I was curious about.

I used the 2010 census for the demographics of each county, the state exit polls where available, and adjusted for a sizable percent of Hispanics being non-citizens and therefore ineligible  to vote.

Here are some of my estimates, Id give them about a +/-5% margin of error.

Obama's percent of the non-Hispanic white vote.



Multnomah  OR  75%
King County WA 65.5%
Philly   PA 63%
LA   County     62%

Cook   IL  55.5%
Cuyahoga OH 53.7%
Hennepin MN 53%
Wayne ,   MI 46.5
Lake     OH 44.3%    (my home county)



Fulton GA 21.5%
Shelby TN 6%
Dallas TX  4.5%
Montgomery   AL 4.5%
Harris TX  3.5%            (wowzers!)
Jackson MS 3%
 
Considering his statewide totals I find those numbers a bit low.  Obama probably got around 20% of the white vote statewide in Georgia, so I am guessing he got around 25-30% in Fulton County.  In Shelby County, he got at least 25% if not more and likewise in Dallas County, Harris County, Montgomery County, and Jackson County, Obama for sure got in double digits and I am almost certain he got over 20% in each of those save Jackson County (actually I think you mean Hinds County) and Montgomery County

And some more large counties, though now <1,000,000 people

Obama
Montgomery, MD
Honolulu, HI
Milwaukee, WI - Quite a racially polarized county, so probably right, but possible Romney won here.
Erie, NY*
Hartford, CT

Romney
St Louis, MO - Its about 80% white and it was 56-43 for Obama so depending on African-American turnout and their numbers an Obama win is possible.  African-Americans in suburbs don't tend to vote as massively Democrat is they do in the city proper otherwise I suspect Romney probably got around 10% of the Black votge here.
Pima, AZ
Westchester, NY* - Has a large Jewish vote who mostly went for Obama, so Romney definitely won the non-Jewish white vote, but I think Obama probably narrowly took the overall white vote here.
Fulton, GA
Mecklenburg, NC
Fresno, CA
Shelby, TN
Wake, NC
Fairfield, CT
DuPage, IL
Pinellas, FL
Marion, IN - Not sure about this as it as about 25% African-American and Romney only got 38% of the vote so unless Obama got virtually all of the African-American vote, Obama probably did narrowly win this. 
Bergen, NJ**

* Erie and Westchester were virtually impossible to determine. Exit polls have Hispanics at 88% Obama in New York State, but I suspect Romney may have done some better with them outside NYC. In any case, the white vote was extremely close in both. I gave one county to each candidate, but both would probably better be labelled as a tie. But that's no fun at all.
** The New Jersey exit polls give no guidance for Hispanics and Asians, who together make up 32% of Bergen's population. I'm going with the very strong Dem NY model for Hispanic results as Bergen is right across the George Washington Bridge. If Hispanics here are not so overwhelmingly Democratic, as Bergen is obviously much less urban than NYC, Bergen may be a white Obama county. In any case, it's a close call.

For purposes of this thread, large counties are those with more than 1,000,000 people, and white vote is limited to non-Hispanics. I tried to put together exit poll turnout numbers per state by race in comparison with the Census returns for each state to transfer that turnout model to the counties. I'm also having to make a bold presumption that, except for Hispanics in FL, non-white voter behavior is consistent within a race in various counties in a given state.  Obviously a very inexact and imperfect method. I won't be submitting this for publication in academia. The close ones could very easily be wrong. And in the cases of Bronx, NY and Miami-Dade FL, there were so few white people that this clumsy method didn't really work. So I gave them to Obama because that seemed more in line with the culture of these two counties, which is even less precise. And there were almost equal numbers for each category, which is also interesting.

Obama
1. Los Angeles, CA
2. Cook, IL
3. Miami-Dade, FL
4. Kings, NY
5. Queens, NY
6. King, WA
7. Santa Clara, CA
8. Wayne, MI
9. Broward, FL
10. New York, NY
11. Philadelphia, PA
12. Alameda, CA
13. Middlesex, MA
14. Bronx, NY
15. Cuyahoga, OH
16. Allegheny, PA  - Not totally sure of this, probably but would have been close.  Pretty sure Obama won the white vote in Pittsburgh itself, but if you took the suburbs I suspect Romney came out ahead.
17. Franklin, OH - Romney might have won the white vote here.  Close to 50/50 either way
18. Hennepin, MN
19. Fairfax, VA - Not totally sure either of this one.  In Arlington and Alexandria yes, but not necessarily in Fairfax County.
20. Contra Costa, CA
21. Travis, TX - This is Texas and about 80% of whites went for Romney statewide so not sure about this one either.  In Austin proper, Obama probably won the white vote, but I think Romney won it county wide.

Romney
1. Harris, TX
2. Maricopa, AZ
3. San Diego, CA
4. Orange, CA
5. Dallas, TX
6. Riverside, CA
7. San Bernardino, CA
8. Clark, NV  - Obama might have won this one, but probably right.  I just know statewide it 56-43 and I imagine Romney probably racked up pretty massive margins amongst whites in the rural counties whereas the minority vote was probably pretty even throughout the state.  Yes the rural counties are whiter but still have some minorities. 
9. Tarrant, TX
10. Bexar, TX
11. Suffolk, NY
12. Sacramento, CA
13. Nassau, NY
14. Palm Beach, FL - I would think Obama was more likely to win this one amongst whites than Miami-Dade albeit both would have been close either way.
15. Hillsborough, FL
16. Oakland, MI  - It is a fairly white county, so probably right but would have been close to evenly split either way.
17. Orange, FL
18. Salt Lake, UT

Obama performed better with whites in Ohio than nationwide, because of the auto bailout.

Republicans tend to rack up huge margins amongst Whites in the South so this skews the results.  In Indiana which is a reliable red state in most elections (2008 was somewhat a fluke), the percentage of whites who voted for Obama was pretty much bang on the national average and slightly better than what Obama got in Virginia and Florida (both states he won).  Gender gap may partially explain as amongst white males Romney won by a landslide in Ohio, while it was much closer amongst white females.  It seemed the gender gap was much larger in the northern states than southern states and I suspect some of the talk on legitimate rape and anti-abortion hurt the GOP amongst female voters.  In fact Steve LaTourette's wife was planning to vote for Romney, but then voted for Obama after the rape comments so I suspect there were other women who had the same issue.

Romney won Carson City in Nevada which was 53-44 for Romney.  Obama probably won Boise and definitely won Salt Lake City and probably Topeka.  Cheyenne definitely went for Romney.  I would also add Charleston, West Virginia might have gone for Romney although not sure.  Even Springfield, Illinois possibly did although I think Obama narrowly scraped by there.  Juneau definitely voted for Obama and by a sizeable margin too.

Its due to age differences.  Older Cubans are voting just as heavily Republican as they always have been, but younger Cubans are not following their parent's voting patterns and thus the gains the Democrats make every election cycle is most Cuban-Americans who die are Republicans and most who weren't old enough in the previous election cycle, but are this time around vote Democrat.

It is pretty much a bellwether county.  Bush won it both times by rather narrow margins while Obama's numbers both times were pretty close to the national numbers.  Almost 20% are minorities and I suspect that group went massively for Obama as well as turnout was much stronger amongst that group than in 2004 and 2000 that probably is where the difference came from.  I suspect whites narrowly backed Romney much like they narrowly backed Bush in both 2000 and 2004.  Otherwise stronger turnout amongst younger voters and minorities as was the case across the nation is probably where the difference came from.

Mormon: 72/27 Romney
Christian Orthodox: 68/31 Romney
Protestant: 57/42 Romney
Catholic: 53/46 Obama
Jewish: 66/33 Obama
Buddhist: 79/20 Obama
Hindu: 81/18 Obama
Muslim: 86/13 Obama
Atheist: 87/12 Obama


English Americans: 51/48 Obama
Scottish Americans: 50/49 Obama
Scandinavian Americans:50/49 Romney
Irish Americans: 51/48 Romney
German Americans: 55/44 Romney
Italian Americans: 56/43 Romney
Polish Americans: 59/41 Romney
ALL White Americans: 59/41 Romney
Russian Americans: 66/33 Romney
Ukrainian Americans: 69/30 Romney
Greek Americans: 71/28 Romney

Pakistani Americans: 89/10 Obama
Indian Americans: 80/19 Obama
Chinese Americans: 79/20 Obama
Korean Americans: 74/25 Obama
ALL Asian Americans: 73/26 Obama
Filipino Americans: 54/45 Obama
Vietnamese Americans: 57/42 Romney

Mexican Americans: 79/20 Obama
ALL Hispanic Americans: 72/26
Cuban Americans: 57/42 Obama

African Americans:96/4 Obama

Native Americans: 62/36 Obama

There is no way Obama won the English-American vote.  Maybe in New England, but in the Mormon states as well as Deep South they would have gone strongly for Romney.  I would also be interested in what the Dutch-American vote was.  I am guessing it was 60-65% for Romney.

Also for Italian and Polish-Americans, I have a tough time believing Romney did better amongst them than German-Americans.  He may have won them but considering most are in the Great Lakes and Northeast where the white vote was fairly evenly split, I suspect it was a lot closer.  For Scandinavian-Americans, I wonder what the breakdown by group was as I suspect the Danish-Americans probably went most heavily for Romney, followed by the Swedish-Americans, while the Norwegian and Finnish-Americans if those numbers are correct probably narrowly favoured Obama.

Most Russian-Americans are Jewish so pretty sure Obama won them and Ukrainian-Americans did not go 2/3 for Romney while Greek-Americans are mostly in large urban centres like Chicago, Boston, New York, and Philadelphia so pretty sure Obama won them too.  Portuguese-Americans probably also favoured Obama as well.  For Scots-Irish, I suspect that group went over 2/3 for Romney.

As for Cuban-Americans, it was 50-47% in Florida so I think Romney won this group albeit a strong age gap as it looks like Obama solidly won the younger Cuban vote, but the older Cuban vote went heavily for Romney. 

As for Native Americans it was probably at least 80% for Obama maybe 90%.  If you look at the reserve vote, it was usually over 90% Obama.  True some like the Cherokees and Navajo don't vote quite as massively as a block, although I still suspect Obama got over 70% from them.  If you include those of mixed Native blood, you may be right as many in the Appalachians and South have a small amount of Native blood and off course they went heavily for Romney.

What are those large red dots as those seem like rural areas that would vote GOP not Democrat.  I can see why Obama would easily win in State College that is kind of a given.  Also who won Boalsberg, PA.  The only reason I ask is one of accuweather's former chief forecasters who is a big Romney supporter and a strong critic of AGW lives there so it would be interesting to see how his town voted. 

The large Democratic-voting precinct to the north is Orviston, a tiny, isolated hamlet in the middle of the mountains. It's one of the few areas of the county that I haven't visited, but my guess is that it's very much oriented toward recreation and tourism. Very sparsely populated.

Moving counterclockwise, the next Obama precinct covers the area around Black Moshannon State Park. Again, very sparsely populated. I don't think there are any named places within this precinct.

The next tiny red precinct is in the borough of Phillipsburg (population ~3000). Considering its size and density, it's not surprising that at least one precinct is red; in fact, I'm more surprised that the rest of the borough voted for Romney. Phillipsburg isn't closely tied to State College; it's in a different valley, and it's a 40 minute drive from one to the other. Boalsburg and Bellefonte are very different from SC, but in these communities it's difficult to forget that you're in the same county as Penn State. Not so in Phillipsburg.

The cluster of small red precincts north of State College is Bellefonte. Bellefonte is the county seat, and, through most of Centre County's history, it was the county's largest settlement. This hasn't been so since shortly after WWII, with the expansion of the university and the decline of iron mining in central PA. Bellefonte is still the second largest borough in Centre County. (It's a pleasant community to visit, if you have the chance. Lots of late-nineteenth century architecture, a nice park, and a great coffee shop - a significant number of people commute to State College from Bellefonte.)

I'm pretty sure that Boalsburg is located in the large red precinct just south of State College. Boalsburg is another nice place to visit; it has the atmosphere of a well-preserved community that is neither rapidly expanding nor in decline. Housing is a bit cheaper here, and it's not far from the university, so it has a large commuter population. Very closely tied to State College.

So otherwise it looks like Obama won Boalsberg.  At first I thought you meant Romney as red I usually think of means Republican not Democrat, but then I realize this atlas does it backwards of what is generally used.

So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.

Kerry didn't win Westmoreland; no Democrat has won it since Clinton (who only won it narrowly in 1996).

My bad, I meant Washington County, PA which Kerry did win.  Your right about Westmoreland County though.

Still awaiting the final results but so far an okay night for the Tories.  They got clobbered as expected in Victoria, held onto Calgary Centre albeit but a rather slim margin compared to what the normally get and they did get over 50% in Durham which at least in this case suggests they have by in large held onto their support in Ontario (although one should be cautious in reading too much into these results).  For the Liberals a fairly good night as despite their poor showing in Victoria and Durham (both ridings they won in the 90s I should note), they did come close to pulling off an upset in Calgary Centre, which suggests that maybe they shouldn't be so quick to write off Alberta, although I suspect many provincial PCs who were angry at the fact Crockatt comes from the WRA and is a little too right wing for the riding might have voted Liberal this time since it would affect the composition of parliament, but might be reluctant to do so in a general election.  

The NDP improved slightly in Durham, did poorly in Calgary Centre as expected, but could potentially lose Victoria which would be a huge upset if they do, but I still think they will hold it.

Green Party a good night even if they don't pick up anything as in both Calgary Centre and Victoria they did very well, although in a general election I somehow doubt they will maintain those numbers.

Victoria should be an easy NDP hold, but interesting to see how well the Greens do.  Also it will be interesting to see if the Tories fall below 20%.  Since 1993 under the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives (not combining votes, just the most right wing party on the ballot) they have never fallen below 20%, but never cracked the 30% mark either.

For Durham, I would be very shocked if the Tories don't win.  The main question is do they get over 50% which my guess is no or do they fall below.

As for Calgary Centre, if I had to guess I would say the Tories narrowly hold it but it will be much closer than they want, nonetheless unlike Durham I could see this flipping.  I agree that in 2015 it will probably go back to the Tories unless they have some big scandal which sinks them nationally.  Otherwise I think their chances of losing the next election are greater than losing any seat in Calgary.

All Kerry-McCain counties are Kerry-Romney counties. It would be more interesting to list Kerry-Obama-Romney counties.

I'm using the numbers posted here. I don't know if they've all been updated. Most are very close and could change if Atlas numbers aren't final. Anyhow:
Volusia, FL
Calhoun, IL
Madison, IL
Menifee, KY*
Rowan, KY
Wolfe, KY*
Arenac, MI
Big Stone, MN*
Ste Genevieve, MO
Belmont, OH
Jefferson, OH
Monroe, OH
Stark, OH
Houston, TN*
Jackson, TN*
Kenedy, TX
Boone, WV
Braxton, WV
Marion, WV
McDowell, WV
Webster, WV
Iron, WI
Pierce, WI
* denotes McGovern county

Looks like about half of them were coal counties.  Also I know there are two in SW Virginia that went for Kerry in 2004 but flipped to McCain 2008.  Also in Pennsylvania, there was Beaver County, Westmoreland County, and Fayette County (also part of coal country) which Kerry won in 2004, but Romney in 2012 and I believe those went for both Mondale and McGovern as well.