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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Describe an Obama '08 / Romney '12 / Trump '16 voter on: August 13, 2017, 01:46:21 am
I would put them into a few categories.  By far the largest swing was in the Midwest so I suspect you would have the greatest number of them found there.  A couple of others as mentioned below

1.  Normally votes Republican, but was so angry at how bad things were in 2008 so voted Democrat that one time, but that went back to their traditional voting pattern and also hoped Obama would be truly different than most Democrats and transformational.

2.  Traditional conservative Democrats who Obama was too liberal so they finally started voting Republican even though philosophically they were already leaning that way.  A lot of the traditional White Southern Democrat from 2000 onwards trended this way and so each election a certain portion of that group swung over.  Middle Tennessee, Coal fields of Kentucky, West Virginia are examples where you each election have a certain percentage of traditional Democrats who flip GOP.

3.  Person struggling and thus wants to punish whomever is in power and since none have managed to fix the problems they are the type who will continuously vote for the opposition.
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: European diplomat: Trump is 'obsessed with Obama.' on: August 13, 2017, 01:39:08 am
He only ran for President because of Obama, so it's no surprise. For some reason, (and it's not race) he has a unique level of disdain for Obama.

He hated him primarily because of his race.  He may not say outright anything racist, but if you look at this actions and history I have every reason to believe he is a racist.  Maybe not a KKK, Neo-Nazi type as lets remember racism is a spectrum and very few are actually 100% non-racist or 100% racist, most of us have some prejudices to some degree while few of us actually hate a race so much we want them wiped off the map.  Rather if you look at Trump's past elections be it not renting to Blacks, quoting frequently alt-right sites, his various claims on Muslims, calling Mexicans racist, insulting an American born Indiana judge in the Trump University who has Hispanic, he definitely compared to pretty much every post WWII president most closely fits the mold of a racist.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 13, 2017, 01:34:33 am
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...
Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.


True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

Why should the Liberals and Conservatives afford him a courtesy that the NDP has never afforded either party? The NDP always runs in these kinds of by-elections, and should expect no different from their rivals.

Why not as the Liberals and Tories did this so I think it would be a great idea to extend it to the NDP.  Also when the Canadian Alliance existed, the Liberals didn't run a candidate against either Stockwell Day or Stephen Harper despite the fact the Alliance didn't return the courtesy for the PCs against Joe Clark.  And if they did this it is not unreasonable to expect the NDP would reciprocate someday (not that Trudeau is likely going anywhere anytime soon, but I am talking about down the road).  It was the Mulroney PCs who started this tradition when they didn't run a candidate against Chretien in 1990.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017 on: August 13, 2017, 12:25:00 am
Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

I disagree. I think it's more likely the Liberals will disappear into irrelevancy (if they have not done so already) like they did in Saskatchewan.

Depends on who the UCP leader is too.  If the UCP leader is too right wing I think there will be enough who want a fiscally conservative but socially progressive party for a party in the centre to exist.  If the next leader is not too right wing than you are probably right.  In BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba the centre-right parties have generally been careful not go too far to the right whereas in Alberta there is an eliminate in the UCP that wants to take a hard right turn whereas in the other three provinces people know the hard right will never fly.
30  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Who are the future of the British Conservative Party post-May? on: August 12, 2017, 11:58:24 pm
I'm unsure there'll be a British Conservative party post-May if they lose the next election.

Off course there will be.  There is always a strong element of British society on the political right so they won't disappear and they are not in nearly the dire straits they were around 1997.  The British Tories have never gotten under 30% and three times in the last century gotten less than 35% so unless the Liberal Democrats pick up a lot (which is unlikely) I am pretty sure the Tories win or lose will get at least in the upper 30s at minimum.
31  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Who are the future of the British Conservative Party post-May? on: August 12, 2017, 11:56:50 pm
Dominic Grieve, Damian Green, Elizabeth Truss, and Nicky Morgan all seem likely to me.



mileslun, are you aware that Osborne retired?

I am aware but I also know that if someone is seen as well helpful for them, they will get a lot of pressure to jump back in and sometimes they change their mind.  He may say no for now, but that can change if polls show he is the most likely to win amongst the choices in a general election.  This may surprise many, but here in Canada Trudeau back in 2012 said he wasn't interested in the Liberal leadership and it was only after several polls showed he was the only Liberal who could beat the Tories that he jumped in.
32  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: August 12, 2017, 11:55:04 pm
I think more to the point, it's a successful time for the Liberal brand rather than "progressive politics". After all, most of the Atlantic Canada liberals are hardly particularly progressive.

I guess I was thinking on a population weighted basis.  Of the big four provinces which are over 80% of the population, 3 of the 4 (Quebec being the exception) have progressive governments as is our federal government.  Compared to recent governments and in comparison to governments elsewhere in the world Horgan, Notley, Wynne, and Trudeau while not Corbyn type left wing definitely sit to the left of most leaders we've had since the mid 90s and most OECD leaders.  Now to be fair in continental Europe most are grand coalitions so cross county comparisons are a bit difficult and although Trudeau is often referred to as one of the more progressive leaders on earth at the moment elsewhere in the world it could perhaps be circumstance in his case, otherwise if he were leader in just about any other Western country its quite possible he would win and likewise if Canada had the same leaders as you do in the upcoming German election or recent British election Merkel would likely win and May probably although not for certain would beat Corbyn in Canada but all speculation.  I also though think when you look at each one there is a definite trend to the left.  Yes maybe it is waning a bit since 2015 as in the provincial elections since the right has done a bit better, either winning (in Manitoba and Saskatchewan or coming reasonably close in Yukon, BC, and Nova Scotia and yes I understand some would argue in fact the NS Liberals are more to the right of the Nova Scotia PCs so fair point).
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Kamloops, BC mayor: Sept 30) on: August 12, 2017, 11:49:14 pm
Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.

Some polling has showed the NDP tying the Sask party in "rest of Saskatchewan", which includes smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the north, but some rural areas (mainly some small towns, doubt ranchers would ever vote NDP en masse) could voting for the NDP again.

True the cancellation of STC was very unpopular there, although it's been almost 20 years at either the provincial or federal level since the right wasn't running up the margins in rural Saskatchewan thus my skepticism but if the Saskatchewan Party becomes very unpopular in 2020 you could get a scenario like in both Alberta and Manitoba's recent provincial elections where you saw the NDP in Alberta and PCs in Manitoba winning in many ridings they normally would never win although to be fair I suspect they will lose a lot of those next time around even if they win the election (In Alberta that is seeming not too likely but in Manitoba the PCs still have a decent chance at winning but probably not as big a blowout as in 2016).
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 12, 2017, 11:46:09 pm
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...
Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.


True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017 on: August 12, 2017, 11:42:57 pm
Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 12, 2017, 11:41:17 pm
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

Nada. If ya know your BC political history, BC NDP public support always collapses after ~2 years into the term and negatively impacts the fed NDP brand in BC. To wit, when the BC NDP was elected in 1972, fed NDP support collapsed in BC during the fed 1974 election.

When the BC NDP was elected in 1991, fed NDP support also collapsed during the 1993 fed election. In both cases, the fed NDP collapsed in BC to just 2 fed seats. And in both instances, the fed NDP lost the riding of Vancouver East.

BTW, based upon polling data (Mainstreet/Ipsos) and subsequent events (Petronas LNG/Site C/KM, UNDRIP, etc.) appears evident that BC NDP already on downward spiral here in BC.

True the federal NDP does often suffer when the BC NDP is in power although I don't think they will tank quite as far and I say this as a BC Liberal supporter myself.  The millennials in BC are a lot more progressive than previous generations so that gives them a much stronger base to work from and also I think in BC there is still a fairly strong fatigue with the right as lets remember for the past 10 years at both levels of government we were dominated by parties on the right.  I am not suggesting the NDP won't lose seats in BC next federal election or the BC NDP won't get defeated, both are very possible but it's not a foregone conclusion even if historical precedent would say it is.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 12, 2017, 11:38:45 pm
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

What about Shane Simpson's seat next door as not sure how much longer he will stay on but good point.  As for safe seats I guess the concern is I don't generally look at just one election but look at the last decade as in the 2015 election you had lots of ridings that based on 2011 results appeared to be safe NDP or safe Conservative yet they ended up losing.  Heck even for the Conservatives outside some Calgary and rural Prairies their number of safe seats is much lower than some think.  In the Fraser Valley, BC Interior, and Rural Ontario, the Tories did win most of those but the margins weren't particularly strong and in fact a year ago when Trudeau was riding high in the polls they probably would have lost those.  Right now they probably would hold them as things have more or less returned back to where they were in 2015, but still might be a gamble, think John Tory running in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock and losing that which is normally a safe Tory seat.
38  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which of the Nordic countries is most conservative? on: August 12, 2017, 11:10:00 pm
Fiscally I would say Iceland, while socially I would say Finland.  Iceland until 2009 had a flat tax and still has a fairly low top marginal rate compared to most Nordic Countries (it is 46.4% while Sweden is 57%) as well as on the nationalization front they probably have the lowest levels of state ownership mind you all of them are market economies with only a few essential industries like railways, post office etc. still being under government ownership.  On the welfare state I think they are also slightly less generous than the other Nordic Countries.  I would put Sweden as the least conservative of them.  In terms of parties that gets tougher as you have multiple parties and the spectrum is not quite is neat as say in much of the English speaking world where you have a more two party system thus making it easier to make comparisons.  Also whether labeling a party on the right or left depends on from which perspective.  I can see from the perspective of the English speaking world parties such as the Progressive Party in Iceland, Liberal Party of Norway, Liberal People's Party in Sweden, Centre Party of Sweden, and Centre Party of Finland are not right wing parties at all.  Maybe in the Nordic Countries they consider them on the right but I would place those parties similar to the US Democrats, the Liberal Democrats in the UK, and Liberal Party of Canada on the political spectrum.  Even the supposed right wing ones like Independence Party of Iceland, Conservative Party of Norway, Moderate Party of Sweden, Conservative People's Party of Denmark, Venestre of Denmark, National Rally of Finland are more centre-right in the mold of the CDU/CSU of Germany as opposed to the Conservative parties in the English speaking world.  Sweden Democrats and Finns Party seem more like Marine Le Pen in France as it right wing socially but left wing fiscally as opposed to the GOP. 
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Saskatchewan Party leadership election 2017/8 on: August 12, 2017, 11:01:13 pm
Of course, had he not won the federal CPC leadership, Scheer would have been talked about as a potential Wall successor.

Is there a "Liberal" wing to the Sask Party, and if so, who'd be its standard-bearer?

Not really although the 8 MLAs who created the party were four PCs and four Liberals, but I would say the party is about 90% federal conservative and 10% federal liberal otherwise it's not as mixed as say the BC Liberals are who are around 1/3 federal liberal and 2/3 federal conservative. 
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: August 12, 2017, 10:59:47 pm
I suspect a combination of the left coalescing around the Liberals and some dissatisfied Tories pissed at Harper voting Liberal put them over the top. 

Or, dissatisfied Tory *voters*, many of whom had hitherto viewed the CPC as an only-viable-option "vote of convenience".

Growth and demographic shifts may also be a factor, i.e. newer Kelowna hordes (including retirees) being more "moderate" and less Bible-Belty than their predecessors...

True enough although it seems provincially at least the over 65 group is solidly BC Liberals whatever the federal leanings (sort of a more modified version in age distribution compared to the last British election).  Never mind it will be interesting to see if the federal Liberals manage to hold Kelowna-Lake Country in 2019.  Based on the current polling that just might, but history would suggest not so too early to tell.  That being said even if they do lose that one its not going to cost them government they would have to lose ones like the North Shore seats to be in danger of losing outright.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 12, 2017, 10:57:34 pm
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Kamloops, BC mayor: Sept 30) on: August 12, 2017, 10:55:55 pm
Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017 on: August 12, 2017, 10:52:33 pm
Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

With the above in mind, I think Hatman will smile while he reads this story.

Fildebrandt is blaming Jean for leaking this. He's already doing damage control by offering to donate the money back, but considering this guy's old job with the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, this looks terrible.

Yes this does bring a smile to my face Cheesy

My take on Alberta polarization is that it's not a left vs. right polarization but a centrist vs. right polarization. The NDP united the centre and centre left in 2015, while the right (which has a bigger slice of the pie) was divided. If the centre still likes the NDP going forward (most still do), I don't see the Alberta Party going anywhere. Notley may be hated by the right in Alberta, but I still think she's respected by most people in the middle. Perhaps someone in Alberta would know better though.

Not from Alberta but have family there and my take is Notley's popularity amongst the centre depends a lot on geography.  Unlike federally Edmonton and Calgary often vote quite differently and in Edmonton she is still quite popular and would likely win most if not all seats there if an election was called today.  In Calgary by contrast she has a core support of 25-30% but a lot really dislike her there and Calgary is not as right wing as in the past as it has with its younger more diverse population become more centrist and if you look at the mainstreet poll the Alberta Party is largely concentrated in Calgary.  The reason I think the Alberta Party could gain is many Red Tories from the PC side much like you saw with the federal merger will probably find the UCP too right wing but going all the way over to the NDP is a bridge too far.  For all this talk of her being quite centrist, I think that is questionable.  On things like oil sands development and pipelines, she is very centrist, but on things like deficits and government spending not so much and that is where I think the Alberta Party has potential to appeal to those who are fiscally conservative but socially progressive.  Off course in the end they may get squeezed out as lots of third parties do. 

While the election is still another 21 months away I would venture to guess the most likely outcome (but could be wrong as I have been before) is the UCP win by a landslide in popular vote, but in seats it is not nearly as big a blowout.  Otherwise Rest of Alberta is a massive win for the UCP perhaps four times as many votes as NDP and that is over 40% of Alberta.  In Calgary the UCP is the favourite but the NDP does have a strong base of 25% meaning if the economy ticks upward and the Alberta Party gains and it comes exclusively from the UCP, they might not do as badly as some think although at this point I think the UCP will win the majority of seats in Calgary but won't sweep the city.  Edmonton at least at the moment looks to stay largely NDP, possibly a complete sweep again.  That being said Edmonton does often go Tory federally, but with a lot working in the provincial civil service I suspect you have a fair number of crossover voters who vote left provincially (want higher salaries) but vote right federally (want tax cuts).
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: August 12, 2017, 10:43:30 pm
Wow. Fantastic discussion here! I'll add my two cents/pennies here, as I'm a Canadian who now lives in the London commuter belt (Cobham):

Parochialboy's point about the elite and milesiunn's point about the surbubs are both spot on. The Tories in the UK are akin to the Liberals in Canada in that they are both the party of the establishment, consensus, and small-c conservative bourgeois values. This makes them intrinsically more appealing to the affluent and long-established (i.e. not immigrant) communities that make up most of the Home Counties near London. Meanwhile, Canadian Tories/British Labour represent a challenge to the status quo, and hence are only really considered when there's been a major scandal, and even then, their support is too thin and too poorly organized to ever win. I sometimes explain this to outsiders by saying: For middle-class Brits, voting Labour is a decision, voting Tory is a habit.

There's also the issue of constituency boundaries. The constituencies in and around London tend to be quite compact. When laid over the regional urban planning designs, it produces a map where densely packed, urban areas (think Kingston or Croydon) are 'contained' in one or two competitive ridings, while the much less dense, ex-urban/semi-rural, and ultra affluent (i.e. gated communities) areas between them get ridings of their own. We have very few ridings that bridge both zones, like, say, Ottawa-South or Aurora-Newmarket.

One last point I'll bring up: the UK Tories have been guided *far* more by their fringe (right) wing than the Canadian Liberals have by their fringe (left) wing, especially over the past 5-10 years. This may be due to the role of third parties (the NDP drifting toward the centre during the Layton/Mulcair years and the rise of UKIP on the right), but I think the entrenched Tory advantage in places like the M25 area is the more likely culprit. The UK Tories don't have to compete for centrist minded voters here, so they drift more easily to the right.

Do you think perhaps maybe BC politics where you have the BC Liberals on the right (like the Tories) and NDP on the left (like Labour Party) would be a better proxy or is Britain just more conservative than Canada in general.
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Charlie Munger - Healthcare costs hurting US corporations, we need Single payer on: August 11, 2017, 06:12:54 pm
Unlike in Canada, the health insurance industry is a very big industry and employs many people so the job losses could be heavy. 

Can't they just rehire these people to work for a public health program? I'm sure most could adapt easily.

Not really is when you have a single payer you get economies of scale so there would be a lot fewer.  For example each insurance industry would have its own HR while you would only need one HR.  Now the private health insurance industry wouldn't totally disappear as unlike Canada I doubt the US would ban people from purchasing private health insurance to go privately (UK allows this, but Canada in most provinces bans this or makes it unprofitable) as well as unlike the UK, but like Canada I suspect supplemental health insurance will still remain private.  That being said I think if you look at my list, each one on its own could be overcome, but when you add them together it becomes problematic.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 11, 2017, 05:34:05 pm
TBF, Layton did the same thing.

He was chosen only a year before the election whereas Singh would be 2 years and Layton was frequently mocked for not running for a seat.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Charlie Munger - Healthcare costs hurting US corporations, we need Single payer on: August 11, 2017, 05:32:01 pm
Living in Canada which has a single payer system has many long term advantages but the transition could be very rough thus unlike most Canadians fully understand why the US has not gone there.

1.  Unlike in Canada, the health insurance industry is a very big industry and employs many people so the job losses could be heavy.  A better comparison is in Ontario, Bob Rae back in the 90s wanted to bring in a government run auto insurance, but when faced with the stats on job losses backed off.

2.  Raising taxes on the middle class is political suicide even if health insurance fees no longer have to be paid, most don't see the connection.  Witness how initiatives for single payer in both Colorado and Oregon were defeated by over 75% even though both states voted Democrat in the last election

3.  Start up costs are huge and with a $19 trillion debt very little room whereas Canada only had a $20 billion debt when we established single payer health care.

4.  Raising taxes on the rich and corporations would either not be sufficient to fund it or if it was high enough to fund it they would just re-locate as rates would be uncompetitive.

Now one way the US could provide single payer health care would be to dramatically slash the military and use that funding as the US spends 6% of GDP on military while UK is only 2% and Canada is only 1% so right there would cover the difference.  But politically that would never sell in the US.

So I don't think single payer health care will come to the US for a long time if ever.  Also Canada and the UK would not be implementing it now if they didn't have it; both have it as it was implemented at a time when the economy was growing faster, had a younger population, capital was less mobile so you could have higher taxes on the rich and corporations so the window of opportunity for the US to implement it was really from the 40s until the 70s, otherwise FDR and LBJ were the ones who probably should have done it, after that it has become increasingly hard for any country anywhere to implement new social programs.  Maintaining existing ones is much different than starting new ones.  The Conservatives in Canada and UK favouring it is no different than the GOP favouring Social Security, once implemented its political suicide to scrap it.
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher retweets white supremacist on: August 11, 2017, 05:16:21 pm
Didn't this guy endorse Marine Le Pen in France and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands?  If he did that says a lot about him, still the fact the GOP is attracting a fair number of racists will not be good in the long-run.  You can gerrymander districts enough to lose by 5 points and still win, but its not possible to gerrymander them enough where you can win even if you lose by 10 points.
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump, just now: Military action not off the table for Venezuela on: August 11, 2017, 05:14:23 pm
Good God.  I guess he needs to find a distraction to improve his approval ratings.  Venezuela's Maduro is becoming a dictator, but there are many autocrats around the world like him.  Maduro needs to go but change needs to come from within.  Has the US not learned that people no matter how awful their leader is don't like outsiders interfering.  Never mind the US election is still over 3 years away and considering how public approval of both the Vietnam and Iraq War turned sharply against him, invading them might hurt rather than help his chances.
50  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Who are the future of the British Conservative Party post-May? on: August 11, 2017, 05:11:24 pm
It looks like the British Conservative Party under Theresa May is heading on it's way to another wilderness era like the Tories were under post-Major/Hague/IDS/Howard era. After David Cameron's 2015 reelection win, the Brexit vote that ended his premiership and Theresa May's takeover of the Conservative Party and the horrendous decision to have a snap 2017 election post-Brexit.

Who are the future of the British Conservative Party post-May?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/06/theresa-may-lame-horse-furious-tory-ministers-warn-amid-claims/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/816826/theresa-may-tory-conservative-death-row-election-jeremy-corbyn-robert-halfon-lynton-crosby

Perhaps George Osborne as somewhat younger or maybe Boris Johnson as he is from London which swung quite heavily against the Tories or even Zac Goldsmith.  A real big catch would be Ruth Davidson who is very popular in Scotland, but not sure if popularity in Scotland translates into England as Gordon Brown gained in Scotland but lost in England.

I don't think the Tories losing the next election is a foregone conclusion for a few reasons.

1.  With the re-distribution the boundaries should be slightly more favourable to the Tories although only 5-10 seats.

2.  Labour needs 64 extra seats to win a majority and that means winning ones they lost by over 10 points as well as probably some where the Tories got over 50%.

3.  Jeremy Corbyn is quite left wing so no matter how unpopular the Tories become he will have a much tougher time than Tony Blair did in pulling away soft Tories

4.  While I know many don't trust Tony Blair, I saw a recent interview with him and he wasn't sure the coalition Corbyn won can stick.  The industrial north voted heavily leave and if Corbyn endorses staying in the single market which means free mobility of labour (EU has been clear UK cannot remain in the single market without allowing free mobility of labour) much of that could swing over to UKIP.  By contrast his big gains amongst college educated, London, and university towns were people who oppose Brexit so not demanding Britain stay in the single market could cause them to go over to the Liberal Democrats and if the Liberal Democrat gains come all from Labour the Tories can then fall below 40% and still win a majority.

5.  The Tories assumed it was obvious to everyone he was too left wing so never properly attacked his fiscal policies, while next time around will go a lot harder after them.

6.  A lot of Labour voters were protest votes who wanted to punish the Tories, but weren't ready to hand the keys of 10 Downing Street to Corbyn but since no one thought he stood a chance at winning, many safely assumed they could vote Labour to punish the Tories without them actually winning.  Now that there is a realistic chance of them winning people will think twice about voting for them.

That being said I still think Corbyn could very well win the next election, but it is not a foregone conclusion and with the decline of third parties I don't think a landslide for either side Like 1983 for the Tories or 1997 for Labour is realistic.  You need third parties to do better for this to happen as it seems both parties pretty much have a ceiling around 45%.

So I think the Tories like anyone who has been in power has their issues, but they are not in as bad a shape as they were under Tony Blair or Labour was in the 80s.  And if you want to talk about Conservative parties in bad shape in the English speaking world, that would go to Canada without question where the Tories at least federally do face major problems whereas the British Tories I don't think are yet at the stage but depending on how Brexit goes that could change.  Never mind they are in much better shape than the GOP was in 2008 or Liberal Party of Australia in 2007 and yet both bounced back fairly quickly.
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