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601  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Portuguese General Election on: May 26, 2011, 08:44:04 pm
Let's hope it continues; I find it utterly perverse that the Right should benefit from this.
  Why would that be perverse.  The right generally favours less government, which means smaller deficits.  If anything Greece, Portugal, and Ireland could benefit from a right wing government and I see this as someone who is close to the centre in my home country, Canada.  In the early 90s, the Liberals had enough sense to make big spending cuts despite not being a right wing party, but it seems in Europe, electing a right wing party is the only way to get the necessary spending cuts.  I doubt Labour Party in Britain would have made them.
602  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 26, 2011, 08:41:05 pm
Looking at the results themselves many make some sense, but I do have some questions which hopefully others can answer.

1.  Why have the Conservatives gained so heavily in Manitoba.  They got 39% in 2004 and 54% in the last election, otherwise a 15% jump more so than Ontario.  They have an NDP government that is reasonably popular, they are still a have not province, and there doesn't seem to be any issue that would drive them towards the Conservatives unlike Saskatchewan which has a strong resource sector, a have province, and has a popular premier who is centre-right.

2.  How come the Liberals held their ground in university towns like Guelph and Kingston & the Islands.  I know those cities are more liberal than the surrounding ridings, but it seems odd the NDP didn't gain there and that the Liberals didn't implode like they did elsewhere in Ontario

3.  What is with Quebec swinging en masse towards a certain party be in the PCs in 1984, BQ in 1993, ADQ in 2007, or NDP in 2011.  You don't see those type of wild swings in English Canada very often.  I know Quebec leans more to the left than the rest of Canada but not by the degree the results suggests.


4.  Since 2004, it appears the vote percentage has been fairly consistent with only minor changes in Ottawa unlike elsewhere.  Is it because they are more politically engaged thus more firm in their views or is there another reason the party support is relatively consistent in Ottawa.

If anyone has the answers to these, it would be greatly appreciated.
603  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 26, 2011, 12:36:12 am
I think the collapse of the Liberal right wing helped to destroy the Liberals. Who is left on that front? Many of those infamous right wing Scarborough MPs either retired or were defeated.  With the election of Bob Rae as interim leader, they can say  goodbye to their right wing. I'm disappointed that Rae agreed not to run for leader, agreeing to serve only the interim. Not because I like him - far from it - but because it would further destroy the Liberals, continuing in the footsteps of Dion and Ignatieff. Wink But I suppose tradition dictates they go French this time, so we will see either Trudeau or LeBlanc be leader. Or maybe even Garneau.

Trudeau might help the Liberals in the GTA, but that's about it. And that's their best hope.

Trudeau would kill the Liberal Party in Quebec for another generation, too.

He would also hurt them in the West and with the West's growing population it is a lot harder to write off the West than it was 30 years ago.  He might regain the immigrant vote which would at least re-establish the GTA as a Liberal stronghold and also pick up a few more Montreal area ridings and parts of the Lower Mainland.  I would argue Dominic Leblanc though comes from the right area.  From a rural riding in New Brunswick which was their worst Atlantic province and in fact their vote in that province wasn't that far off the national average as well as it is the most Conservative province east of the Ottawa River and perhaps even outside the Prairies.  He is also young enough that he could go through multiple elections so it wouldn't be about winning, but rather gaining seats each election and maybe after three or four rounds finally winning.  He also seems quite articulate which is in contrast with the last two or even three leaders.  For all the rot in the leaders, one of the problems the Liberals had is none of their last three leaders connected with the average voter.  By contrast I think Chretien was someone who connected quite well and had a very good political antennae thus why he won three majorities.
604  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 26, 2011, 12:31:31 am
I think the collapse of the Liberal right wing helped to destroy the Liberals. Who is left on that front? Many of those infamous right wing Scarborough MPs either retired or were defeated.  With the election of Bob Rae as interim leader, they can say  goodbye to their right wing. I'm disappointed that Rae agreed not to run for leader, agreeing to serve only the interim. Not because I like him - far from it - but because it would further destroy the Liberals, continuing in the footsteps of Dion and Ignatieff. Wink But I suppose tradition dictates they go French this time, so we will see either Trudeau or LeBlanc be leader. Or maybe even Garneau.

Trudeau might help the Liberals in the GTA, but that's about it. And that's their best hope.
 On the social front you have John McKay while on the economic front you have Scott Brison, both who almost lost their seats.  Other than those two, I cannot really think of any others.  Mind you many on the left of the party in downtown Toronto also got defeated albeit by the NDP such as Kennedy, Minna, and Silva.  By contrast most on the right of the party lost to the Conservatives as they were in the suburbs or rural areas (and I don't just mean this election but rather the past four).  If you gave the leader a massive raise, maybe you could get Manley or McKenna to return, but I think working in the private sector is much more rewarding for those two.
605  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 25, 2011, 11:29:52 pm
Believe it or not, some of the Quebec Tory MPs of the 80s were quite left wing. Look at current BQ MP Louis Plamondon who got his start with the Tories of the 80s.
  Its true a lot of the nationalist who supported Mulroney were on the left, although some were on the right too i.e. Jean-Pierre Blackburn (who was a Harper cabinet minister until recently), Pierrette Venne (was kicked out of the BQ and generally at odds with the party), and Nic Leblanc (ran for the BQ in 1993, switched to the Canadian Alliance in 2000).  In fact that was part of the reason the Mulroney coalition imploded so spectacularly in 1993 as there was no way you could hold together a coalition that diverse.  One that spreads from Blue Liberals to Reformers is possible, but not Left wing Nationalist in the same caucus as your Western libertarians and social conservatives.  In addition back in the early days, not all Bloc MPs were on the left.  Under Bouchard they were more of a sovereigntists party than a left wing one.  It was more under Duceppe that they moved to the left. 
606  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 25, 2011, 11:26:17 pm
Mayoral elections are officially non partisan, but that's besides the point.

ALSO, one should note that until the 1980s, the Liberals in Ontario were to the right of the Big Blue machine. Their base was in rural southwestern Ontario, an area that is pretty socially conservative and where the federal Liberals are now a non factor. It was not too long ago that right wing nut job, radio host Lowell Green ran for the provincial Liberals.
  True enough.  It was really in the 80s they swapped roles.  Although for very different reasons, the Democrats in the US were up to the 60s in many ways also to the right of the Republicans who were a lot more moderate than today.  I should note though provincially the Liberals still hold many seats in Southwestern Ontario, but we shall see if that continues or if they go the same route as their federal cousins.  Also when the federal Liberals one here, many of their MPs were rather right wing i.e. Paul Steckle, Pat O'Brien, Rose-Marie Ur, and Roger Gallaway and I never really understood why they weren't Conservatives.  Maybe thats why they won in 2004 since they were essentially Conservatives and then once they left asides from O'Brien's riding, the Tories saw a major jump in support and the Liberals plummeted in all of the ridings including O'Brien's.
607  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 25, 2011, 05:59:29 pm

And are the charges that the NDP is now beholden to Quebec now that over half of its caucus is from there true or not?

It goes without saying that all parties tend to be more sensitive to the needs of the regions of the country where the bulk of their support comes from. The NDP will inevitably be more "beholden" to the following: Quebecers, women, younger people, visible minorities, people with lower incomes, people who work in the public sector, union members etc... The Tories on the other hand are "beholden" to the following: Albertans, rural people, older men, rich people, evangelical Christians, Bay St.

Tell me something i didn't already know. Quebecers tend to have very leftwing view son most issues. All the NDP has to do to "represent" Quebec in Parliament is to keep on being itself!

Partially true although a successful party use triangulation.  The Tories would throw a bone to their base every now and then, but much of their focus was on the swing voters who might vote Tory but weren't a lock.  By contrast the Liberals spent too much time focusing on their base and not enough on the swing voters thus why they continued to decline.  The Tories off course ignored those who would never vote them.  If the NDP is to succeed, they need to use a similiar strategy although from the opposite side of the spectrum.  While Quebec is more left wing than the rest of Canada, it doesn't always vote for left wing parties.  The ADQ who were pretty right wing nearly won in 2007 and back in 1984 and 1988, Quebec went for the Mulroney PCs who were centre-right so I think the success of the NDP was due a to a cominbation of liking Jack Layton personally and the dissatisfaction with the alternatives.  I think either the Tories or Liberals could win big in Quebec if they had a leader who was well liked there and had policies that were popular.  I don't think Quebec as that much more left wing than the 80s.  Compared to the 50s when the Union Nationale won, yes and it is true more of those voters were still alive in the 80s, but Quebec swung hard to the left in the 60s and has been so since then.  The only change is some of the holdouts have died off thus causing the right wing base to dwindle.  Also the right wing in Quebec today is more libertarian whereas in the 60s they were mostly socially conservative Catholics.  Off course both were in a minority in their time and not large enough to win more than a handful of seats outside their core constituencies.
608  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 25, 2011, 05:52:47 pm
Its interesting that up until 2004 - it was almost a given that the NDP always got significantly higher support in Ontario provincial elections than in federal elections (typically the provincial over federal bump was about 6-7%) - now its the reverse. I wonder why?
  As mentioned in the above post it is due to the anti-Conservative vote.  They don't care who wins, as long as the party is on the left side of the spectrum.  Yes I know calling the Liberals a left leaning party is a stretch, but at least they are both to some degree for an activist government and have some degree of skepticism of the free market, and believe in government intervention to help the disadvantaged.  Had the NDP surge not occurred in Quebec, I believe the party would have stayed in the teens as most of the gains were simply anti-Conservative voters who would vote for whichever party was most likely to defeat the Conservatives nationally.  I live in Trinity-Spadina and you have lots of lefties who will vote for whichever party that it is.  After all many of them voted for George Smithermann as mayor and he is a Liberal not an NDPer (that would be Joe Pantalone) since they wanted to stop Rob Ford.  Since the biggest swings were in Downtown Toronto that is why I suspect it was the anti-Conservative vote coalescing around the party most likely to defeat them.  Elsewhere in the province where the population is more centrist or on the right, the swing was much more modest.
609  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 25, 2011, 05:47:33 pm
Now compare to federal results

1968: 21%
1972: 22%
1974: 19%
1979: 21%
1980: 22%
1984: 21%
1988: 20%
1993: 6%
1997: 11%
2000: 8%
2004: 18%
2006: 19%
2008: 18% (this was the best showing ever in terms of seats at the time... strange, eh?)
2011: 26%

So, compared to the national party, the 1995 showing wasn't too bad. Especially since the party was in single digits federally at the time.  Nowadays, the federal party is actually doing better than the provincial party.

Interesting, that until this election the NDP generally did better in terms of popular vote.  The reason in 2008 they won the most seats ever but not votes is most of their gains were in Northern Ontario which are the smallest ridings population wise and much of this was over the unpopularity of the carbon tax and since Northern Ontario tilts more to the left unlike rural Southern Ontario, the NDP gained.  I think their decline until 2011 was also partly due to changing demographics.  Up until this election they did quite poorly amongst immigrants and visible minorities who are the fastest growing segment of the population.  Also the decline of manufacturing and unions probably hurt them thus why places like Cambridge, Oshawa, Brant, and Essex went Conservative instead of NDP as the blue collar unionized worker population as a percent of the population is not as large in those areas as it was 30 years ago.  As for their gain in 2011, if you look at the polls the NDP was consistently polling under 20% in Ontario prior to the Easter weekend.  There is a certain segment of the population especially in downtown Toronto who hates Harper with a passion and conservatism in general and they will simply vote for whichever party is more likely to defeat them.  The NDP surge in Quebec pushed them ahead of the Liberals nationally and it was a few days after that they got a strong bounce in Ontario.  I suspect many of these voters would have stuck with the Liberals had they stayed in second place.  By the same token the Tory gains in suburban 416 and the 905 belt would have been limited to marginal ridings like Ajax-Pickering, Mississauga South, and Brampton-Springdale, not ones like Willowdale or Mississauga-Brampton South as I suspect a fair number of Blue Liberals bolted to the Tories to stop the NDP.  From listening to an interview with John Manley, it almost seems like he wanted the Tories to win after the NDP surged so I expect that wing of the Liberal Party probably swung over to the Tories and helped them gain more seats than expected.  The point is not everyone is loyal to a certain party, in fact many people vote for whomever they think is most likely to defeat the party they dislike most.  I realize strategic voting isn't as rampant as some say, and on a riding level that is true and is few fully understand the dynamics of their riding, but on a national level I think it happens.  In 2004, the Tories got 13/14 seats in Saskatchewan despite only getting 42% of the popular vote and much of this was due to vote splitting on the centre-left as many NDP voters swung over to the Liberals to stop the Tories which worked in Ontario, but in Saskatchewan had the opposite effect in electing more Tories.  Now true, the Tories have held those ridings, but they have also increased their share of the popular vote by more than 10% too.  Had they not increased their vote from 2004, I suspect much of the urban-rural ridings in Saskatchewan would now be NDP.  Off course much of their gains probably came from former Red Tories of the old PCs who voted Liberal since they were still fearful of the Conservatives and Blue Liberals who would never consider going NDP.
610  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 25, 2011, 05:36:59 pm
Actually 21% for the NDP in 1995 was pretty bad - especially for a party with 74 MPPs running for re-election. Up until the 1995 election, the ONDP had a pretty consistent mid-20s vote share:

1967 - 26%
1971 - 27%
1975 - 29%
1977 - 28%
1981 - 21% (that was considered a total fiasco under Cassidy)
1985 - 24%
1987 - 26%
1990 - 37%
1995 - 21%
1999 - 13%
2003 - 15%
2007 - 17%

I think the fact the PCs were mostly Red Tories as well as the fact the Liberals provincially up until the 80s were to the right of their federal counterparts benefited the NDP.  In 1999, I believe the strong desire to oust Mike Harris from those on the left is why the NDP did so poorly.  While they got 21% in 1995, the common sense revolution was only an idea on paper, once put into practice it probably motivated some to vote strategically.  That is why I say if Hudak is seen as a Harris clone it could hurt the NDP.  Mike Harris wasn't universally hated, but pretty much anyone who was slighly left of centre hated him.  Off course those on the right side of the spectrum loved him thus why you got fairly polarized results.
611  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Portuguese General Election on: May 24, 2011, 09:02:01 pm
What are the chances of the PSD + CDS-PP getting a majority.  Wouldn't that be the best coalition to make the necessary spending cuts to get the deficit under control.
612  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 24, 2011, 08:02:01 pm
I think the big thing which could impact the NDP is how the public perceives Hudak.  When Davis was in power, the NDP frequently got around 25% in Ontario, but under Mike Harris they languished in the low teens.  Most NDP supporters didn't have too strong a preference between Davis and the Liberals, but most hated Mike Harris with a passion and would vote Liberal simply to block him.  If Hudak is seen as a Harris clone which many would argue he is, then expect several unions to endorse the Liberals and much of the NDP support to flock to the Liberals.  Off course that might not prevent a PC win, especially if they get 44% which their federal counterparts got in which case they would still win a majority albeit with fewer seats than the federal Tories.  The NDP can make the strong case for voting for them, but the desire to block the Tories is something they have little control over.  Off course one could argue the Ontario PCs benefit more from a right wing leader than a more centrist one since despite a right wing one being hated by more, at least it motivates the base to show up and to contribute to the party.  Also it forces Ontarioans to take sides whereas with a centrist one they could do really well if they are personally liked, but do really poorly if not so well liked.
613  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 24, 2011, 07:10:55 am
This was a historic election.  With the decimation of the Liberals, Canada does indeed seem likely headed towards a social democratic-conservative polarization like that in the UK and Western Europe.  This was of course a long-time goal of the NDP: they were very much inspired by the Labour Party.  And Harper has indeed united the right side of the spectrum - Reform, PC and "blue Liberals."  Whatever reservations there were from "socially liberal and fiscally conservative" business types about Harper seems to have evaporated.

British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba also have similiar polarization at the provincial level.  I suspect both parties wanted this as the Tories have a better chance of winning against the NDP than Liberals thus if Harper's goal was to make the Tories the natural governing party this would make it easier.  Likewise, if the Liberals are gone, the NDP can win at least sometimes.
614  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 24, 2011, 03:09:10 am
It should be interesting.  BC is a wildcard, although unlike Campbell, Clark is actually more popular than her party.  Campbell dragged down his party support, while Clark helps it.  As for other provinces, here are my predictions.

Christy Clark doesn't seem particularly formidable at the moment.  She barely squeaked it out in the by-election in Vancouver-Point Grey in what was supposed to be a cakewalk, and a few days it was reported she was considering moving over to a super-safe Liberal riding.

Asides from 2001, Campbell never won Vancouver-Point Grey by large margins and she got 49% which is more than what Campbell got in 2005 and 1996 although 1% less than 2009.
615  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 23, 2011, 09:51:15 pm
Doesn't matter if you voted Liberal or Tory, you're wrong either way ;-)

Considering those are the only two parties to have ever former government, it must mean many other Canadians are wrong too.
616  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Fall 2011 (provincial) elections on: May 23, 2011, 08:54:48 pm
It should be interesting.  BC is a wildcard, although unlike Campbell, Clark is actually more popular than her party.  Campbell dragged down his party support, while Clark helps it.  As for other provinces, here are my predictions

Manitoba - Tight race, could go either NDP or Progressive Conservative

Ontario - Favours the PCs, but go Liberal if Hudak makes a major blunder.

PEI - Liberal landslide, possibly a complete sweep

Newfoundland & Labrador - PC majority although probably with fewer seats since Kathy Dunderdale doesn't have the same popularity as Danny Williams did.

Yukon - Don't know enough to predict here.

BC - If there is an election, I would give a slight edge to the BC Liberals, although the big wildcard is the BC Conservatives.  If they do well, then the NDP will win, otherwise a BC Liberal win.  I predict whatever the results are the BC Liberals + BC Conservatives will beat BC NDP + BC Green Party
617  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 23, 2011, 08:50:10 pm
Adding to those who talk about the NDP taking many former Liberal seats in Toronto, I would be careful here.  In BC you have a left/right split and the city Vancouver pretty much splits evenly between the BC Liberals and BC NDP, so if the Liberal vote implodes I suspect you would see a similiar scenario in Toronto.  Also I don't buy the idea the NDP will necessarily replace the Liberals.  Outside Quebec, the NDP lead over the Liberals is much smaller and as we have seen in the past Quebec can swing massively in favour of a certain party only to take it away at a minute's notice.  For one thing, Jack Layton will face the following challenge; does he give into Quebec nationalist's demands and alienate his supporters in English Canada, not give into Quebec and lose badly there or find a happy medium like Mulroney tried to do and lose in both.  Remember the Bloc Quebecois and Reform Party were both offshots of the Mulroney PC coalition as many of his Western supporters felt he pandered too much to Quebec while many in Quebec felt he didn't do enough.  I am not saying this will happen, but it certainly could.  Also if the Liberals pull ahead nationally, I expect much of the centre-left vote in Ontario to swing back to them as they are more concerned about defeating the Tories and care less about which party it is.  Also the Tories destroyed Dion and Ignatieff through their attack ads and I assume they will use them against the NDP although probably the party as a whole and some of its members rather than Layton who is well known and fairly popular.  Considering how effective they were against the Liberals, they could work against the NDP.  Also the Liberal Party in many ways has a stronger opposition team.  Bob Rae, unlike Dion or Ignatieff is good at ripping the Tories apart so if he is interim leader I suspect he will do a good job of opposing them.  On finance, Ralph Goodale, Scott Brison, and John McCallum are far superior to any NDP MP, while on health care, you have Kirsty Duncan and Carolyn Bennett who are both former doctors so if on the major issues the Liberals are a more effetive opposition than the NDP that could help them.  As for my personal bias, I am a Democrat supporter in the US and this site is a US site thus why I am listed as a Democrat supporter, but in Canada I have been eligible to vote since 2000 and have voted for both the Tories and Liberals although I won't say which elections I voted for which.  I also tend to look at my local candidate too.  Still I try to look at things from a non-objective point of view, not my personal bias.  After all I was quite happy to see the NDP wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but that doesn't mean I think the Bloc cannot rebound although I hope they don't.
618  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 23, 2011, 08:37:45 pm

Its true that the Tories won Etob. North in '95 and '99 - but in each case they won it with just about the low vote share of any riding they won in the province on an almost perfect three-way split. On top of that - that area has changed a lot demographically since the 90s and is now much poorer and more "visible minority" than it was then. I think I read that Etobicoke North is the most Muslim riding in Canada now! Its true that Rob Ford is from that area (well actually he's from the richer more central part of Etobicoke - but he was elected there) - but if he zillions of robo-called etc...were not enough to even come close to electing a Tory in this election when Ford's popularity is still in a honeymoon phase - then I'm sceptical what impact he'll have in 2015 when he may not even be mayor anymore and will in any case have accumulated a lot of the negative baggage that comes from being in power.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Etob.-Lakeshore for the NDP. That area actually went NDP federally in 1972 and came close to going NDP throughout the 70s and 80s. Provincially it was represented by Ruth Grier of the NDP for many years. The area closer to the lake is very working class. I think the Liberal vote was very inflated from having Ignatieff as the candidate - four years from now the NDP could be the main opposition to the Tories and the Liberal vote could collapse. in that context anything could happen.

I agree on Etobicoke North, but I would be careful about Etobicoke-Lakeshore.  Although it may have gone NDP in the past, it went PC in 1984 and 1988 when Patrick Boyer held the riding and I believe the Liberals came in second both times.  Likewise it went PC provincially in 1995 and 1999 and unlike Etobicoke North, the PCs got in the upper 40s.  Also I am not so sure how big an effect Ignatieff had as in the past five elections it has been one of the weaker Liberal showings in Toronto and one of the sronger Tory showings (in 2000 I took the PC + Alliance vote).  This area is farily white and with an above average income although not as wealthy as Mississauga South which is clearly a Liberal/Tory battleground.  I agree the Tories could lose this, but it would be to the Liberals not NDP.  It is only 20% visible minority, although 40% are immigrants, but many are Eastern European immigrants, particulary Polish, Ukrainian, and Hungarian who have been living in Canada for over 30 years and according to an Ipsos exit poll the NDP won amongst immigrants who came in the last ten years, but the Tories amongst those who have lived in Canada for over ten years.  Likewise average imcones amongst immigrants who came prior to 1980 is generally higher than that of native born Canadians, by contrast incomes amongst immigrants who have arrived in the last ten years is only 2/3 of what a native Canadian makes thus why they might be more inclined to vote NDP.
619  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 23, 2011, 08:31:15 pm
I heard the NDP won more polls than the Liberals in Toronto Centre, as the Tories won Rosedale and the NDP won the rest of the riding, so the Liberals won the riding by finishing 2nd in both areas.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened in Vancouver Centre.  The Tories are strong in Coal Harbour and Yaletown where you have a lot of the expensive condos, while the NDP more in the West End where there is the large gay community and a lot of unmarried apartment dwellers.  Also possible to see a similiar scenario in Richmond-Arthabaska as it is in between L'Estrie which the NDP swept and the Appalaches-Chaudieres which went mostly Conservative. 
620  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 23, 2011, 12:38:15 am
Finally there is St. Paul's which is probably the toughest to predict.  One of the wealthiest ridings in Canada so should favour the Tories, but has the highest percentage of those with university degrees which is bad news for the Tories so tough to call.  Sort of like Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre out West which stayed Liberal despite being obliterated in the West and considering the Liberals only got 13% and I doubt they will fall below that in Ontario, I would guess this will stay Liberal as long as the party continues to exist.  Also similiar to Montgomery County in Maryland and Manhattan and San Francisco which all vote heavily Democrat but I doubt they would go for a social democratic party.  They are otherwise liberal, not socialist areas. 

I look forward to seeing the poll by poll breakdown.  For those on the blue team New Brunswick, Southern Ontario, the Prairies, and parts of BC should be very blue and I also suspect they won most of the counties and municipalities in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia and even in the Appalaches-Chaudieres region of Quebec.

For the orange team, I suspect you will see lots of it in Quebec and much the way they won most ridings, probably most RCMs and municipalities also went NDP.  Also lots in Northern Ontario and some in Vancouver Island, while elsewhere their support is largely confined to the urban core meaning a fair number of seats, but not too many municipalities let alone counties.

For the Red team, Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI will be your only bright spots.  In fact looking at the Liberal vote by municipality, poll, or region will probably be pretty depressing for our Liberal friends in most parts of the country.
621  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 23, 2011, 12:32:21 am
Continuing the last post, Scarborough-Agincourt seems also more favourable to the NDP than Tories, but for whatever reason, Jim Karygiannis is very popular in his riding despite the fact he is a complete sleazebag.  A lot will depend on whether he runs again or not.  If he runs again, I think the Liberals will hold out, but if not then it is anybody's guess.

In terms of Etobicoke North, that is a tough one.  Has a large immigrant community and is fairly working class in contrast with the other two Etobicoke ridings where the NDP has almost no chance at winning.  By the same token, it went solidly for Rob Ford in the last municipal election, it went PC provincially in both 1995 and 1999 and the Tories federally have consistently been in second place, so could go either way if you ask me.

York West definitely favours the NDP over the Tories by a wide margin.  This includes York university and the Jane and Finch area.  Also the Tories usually only get in the teens or low 20s at best.  Yes, I know it borders Tory ridings like York Centre and Vaughan and Thornhill which the Tories won by a landslide, but the demographics of those ridings is quite different so I don't think you can assume the Tory strength will spillover here.  Those are all middle class ridings and mostly white and the 30% visible minority population they have is mostly middle class.  By contrast, York West is 70% visible minority and one of the poorest ridings in Canada, never mind it has the university which probably helps the NDP too.  Also the Tories have made strong inroads amongst the Jewish community and to a lesser extent the Italian community, but both have a large middle class community.  This riding lacks this.
622  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 23, 2011, 12:26:31 am
Assuming the Liberal vote collapses which I think is a big "if" at this point as with over half of the NDP caucus being from Quebec, many being young and inexperienced, and the fact Quebec can swing en masse towards a party and then take it away next election, I think it is a bit premature to predict the demise of the Liberals yet. 

In Toronto, Scarborough Centre is the only Tory held riding I think the NDP has a good shot at.  Don Valley East is possible, but you would need a much stronger swing.  It is somewhat of a mixed riding and includes demographics that are favourable to the NDP, but also those for the Tories.

As for the Liberal ridings, I agree Toronto Centre looks good for a pickup and in fact if it weren't for Rosedale it might already be NDP.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown here.  Although since more live outside Rosedale then inside I could see Rosedale going heavily Tory while the NDP winning the rest of the riding.  Markham-Unionville is a 905 riding so if the Liberals lose this, it would be to the Tories.  Besides if BC politics is any indication the Chinese community tends to lean more right than left unlike the South Asian community.  Scarborough-Guildwood, we will need to await the poll by poll breakdowns since although the NDP did well here, the lakefront areas are more wealthy so if those are already going Tory, then a good sign for the NDP, but if the Liberal strength is still in this region, then not so much.
623  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 20, 2011, 07:03:57 am
It is true in 416, the Tories definitely got some lucky breaks while the Liberals really got some bad breaks there.  In the 905 belt, the Tory wins were pretty large in many cases.  The Peel region is where their vote was very efficient, but in Durham, York, and Halton they got over 50% and won by over 20 points so I wouldn't describe their vote as being efficient here.  The Liberals definitely got screwed over in the GTA big time.  Since their vote wasn't concentrated in any one area, they got a lot of votes which didn't translate into seats.  The NDP was mostly concentrated in the urban core and with a three way split in Scarborough while the Tories were mostly in the suburbs, while they fared poorly in the downtown area.
624  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: May 20, 2011, 07:01:23 am
I was talking about those GTA regions, where the Tories did very well without particularly large vote margins. Obviously in Alberta they had a lot of surplus votes.

Here is what I got by the GTA region.  Actually in the outer suburbs they generally won by pretty big margins, i.e. Jim Flaherty's riding.  In the 905 belt, there were some close ones, but the NDP was generally weak save Bramalea-Gore-Malton and thus the Tories still averaged close to 45% in their pick ups and the Liberals in the high 30s.  Anyways here is the GTA breakdown by region.

Toronto

Liberal 35% 6 seats
Conservative 31% 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the boundary of Toronto)
NDP 31% 8 seats

Durham Regional Municipality

Conservative 50% 4.5 seats, i.e. clean sweep
Liberal 23%
NDP 23%

York Regional Municipality

Conservative 52% 6.5 seats (York-Simcoe half in York region and half Simcoe)
Liberal 27% 1 seat (John McCallum was the lone Liberal from the 905 belt)
NDP 17%

Peel Regional Municipality

Conservative 44% 8 seats clean sweep
Liberal 34%
NDP 19%

Halton Regional Municipality

Conservative 54% 3.5 seats, clean sweep (Wellington-Halton Hills split between Halton)
Liberal 26%
NDP 16%

905 belt (excluding Hamilton-Niagara region)

Conservative 49%
Liberal 28%
NDP 19%

GTA

Conservative 41%
Liberal 31%
NDP 24%
625  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: May 19, 2011, 07:57:41 pm
New OGM poll for "Kurier", usually the best poll out there:

29% FP
28% SP
23% VP
13% Greens
  5% BZ
  2% Others



Direct vote for Chancellor:

24% Faymann (SP)
18% Spindelegger (VP)
16% Strache (FP)

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2103786.php


Is it actually possible that either party would form a coalition with the FPO.  And likewise how would the EU react to this as they have always taken a strong stance against parties on the far right. 
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