True, Scarborough Southwest has gone NDP, but I am not so sure how well they have done elsewhere.  I know the PCs under Mulroney won seats in Scarborough albeit it was more suburban and whiter than today.  Also Mike Harris won Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough East, and Scarborough Centre, while Rob Ford won all Scarborough wards, so I think it was more of a Liberal stronghold federally than anything else.  As for the NDP gaining amongst Tamils, I agree.  I mentioned earlier the Tories doing well amongst Hindus, this is in reference to an Ipsos Exit poll of 36,000 Canadians whereby amongst Hindus in the 2006 election it was 44% Liberals, 29% Tories, while for Sikhs it was 40% NDP, 37% Liberals, and 17% Conservatives.  There are lots of Hindus from India which is where I think the Tories get a lot of their support from this community.  I suspect their stance on the Tamil refugees probably didn't go over too well with that community.  Since the Tories have gone up since 2006 and the Liberals have cratered, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories won the Hindu vote.  I think amongst immigrants, they won those from Europe and the Far East while the NDP amongst those from elsewhere although one should be careful about generalizing as I don't think any ethnic group votes as a block.  In fact asides from those from Northern Europe (who the Tories probably got over 50% amongst, they got 48% in English Canada) I don't think any party got above 50% amongst any immigrant group.  Quite a contrast from 2000 when 71% of visible minorities voted Liberal.  In fact the loss of immigrants and Catholics is one of the reasons the Liberals have fallen so far so fast.

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

Tories swept North York, the NDP swept the old city

Generally true, although I believe York West is mostly in North York which went Liberal and the Tories came in third.  Likewise I believe part of Don Valley West extends into the old city, but for the most part that is correct.  And the Liberals did win Toronto Centre and St. Paul's, otherwise the wealthy enclaves in old city. 

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.

Doubtful.  The Etobicoke Centre recount won't even start until tomorrow.  There is no schedule for when it will end.

I guess that means Ted Opitz won't being going into cabinet.  I wonder who will go into cabinet of the MPs elected in the 416 as I am sure at least one will.  Also I heard all defeated MPs have to have their offices cleared by Thursday, so that could be a problem if this one isn't known.

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

The Conservative held on in Nipissing-Timiskaming, per local media.   His margin increased from 14 votes over the Liberal incumbent on election night to 18 votes after the recount.

That leaves Etobicoke Centre's recount as the only one outstanding.

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.

Scarborough is another area that is trending NDP big time.

I know NDP-Tory swing voters are a rarity in Ontario, but if the NDP replaces the Liberals as the opposition (in the long run, I mean), then you will definitely see more. Where else will a disgruntled Tory run. The Liberals? Not if they are some fringe party. Boom, the NDP gets some votes.

I agree you may be right, although I think it will become more like BC elections where the number of swing votes will be at the margins.  If you look at the NDP vote in BC vs. the Social Credit/BC Liberals you do get occassional fluctuations but the variations are quite a bit less than what you see federally.  You also have about 20 really close ridings, mostly in the Lougheed Corridor that are often decided by a few hundred votes so I suspect elections would be fought in those types of ridings.  Where they would be is anyone's guess, although I think Scarborough, London are possibilities.  Also with the re-distribution you could get a long more swing ridings too as the suburbs and rural areas seem pretty strong Tory, but a large part of Ontario's population lives in urban areas and that is where the growth is.  I should also note you see a much smaller swing vote in the US and Europe where you have more polarized electorates and often elections are won and lost at the margins.  Also much of Ontario's growth comes from immigration so I suspect how future immigrants vote could have a big impact on whether the NDP makes big gains in Ontario or not.  I suspect that is why the Tories are all for maintaining or raising business and economic class, while cutting family class and refugees as they figure the former two are most likely to vote for them while not the latter two.  Also as the older voters die off, will the younger voters stay on the left or gradually move to the right as they get older and likewise what about voter turnout as most who don't vote in their first two elections never vote.  I guess I was thinking of the next election, not a few down the road.

I should also add the NDP strength amongst the South Asian vote is more at the provincial level, at the federal level they largely go Liberal still, although you are right if between the Tories and the NDP, the NDP probably would win hands down.  Lets remember the BC Liberals provincially are closer ideogically to the Tories than federal Liberals are.  In addition the South Asian community is overwhelmingly Sikh in BC, whereas in Ontario it is a real mix, although I think Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Brampton is general is primarily Sikh while the Muslim community is more in Mississauga and the Hindu more in Scarborough. 

I think you will see the NDP win in Brampton, first. Yes, you heard me. Indians vote NDP in BC, so why not in Ontario? The NDP nearly picked up Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Perhaps after redistribution, a more heavily Indian riding will result in an NDP pickup?

I think you are right on Bramalea-Gore-Malton.  Less sure about the other two Brampton ridings.  I think a lot depends on religion too.  I believe the Tories do well amongst the Hindus who are big in Ontario but not in BC, whereas amongst the Sikhs and Muslims they are far more likely to go NDP than Tory.  Mississauga is also an interesting case as it has a large Muslim population which could help the NDP.  Also, I think the Tories hardline on refugees could help the NDP amongst the Tamil population.  Mind you after re-distribution the boundaries will be much different and I wouldn't be surprised if one of the new ridings is a safe Tory, one is favourable to the Liberals and at least one if not more are favourable to the NDP.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown, but I am sure through gerrymandering in Mississauga/Brampton you could create a safe riding for each party.  As for the NDP bump in Rural Ontario, I am still skeptical since although Harper got a GTA bump that came almost entirely from the Liberals.  When one considers the Tories got over 50% in most rural Ontario ridings, you need Tory-NDP crossovers which I don't see.  If you look at the gains of the NDP and Tories in Ontario in the past four elections, almost all of it has come at the expense of the Liberals.  Due to the ideological differences between the two parties it is much tougher to swing votes between them then it is for each to pick off support or lose support to the Liberals who sit in between the two on the spectrum.  In BC, you have a lot more protest votes, especially in the Interior and Island thus why you have NDP-Tory swing votes, although in the case of the Lower Mainland they are pretty much non-existent.  All the swing voters I met in the Lower Mainland were either NDP-Liberal on the centre-left and Tory-Liberal on the centre-right.  In the case of Quebec, people care less about right vs. left and more about who will offer Quebec the best deal.  Besides it looks like the NDP gains came primarily from the Bloc Quebecois, to a lesser extent from the Liberals and even smaller number from the Tories.  The Bloc Quebecois was already a social democratic party so philosophically other than the national question, they had a lot in common with the NDP.

I still think the NDP win would come through the West and Quebec.  They won't win in Alberta, but BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are different cases.  Yes Ontario, voted for Bob Rae, but that was a one time case and I don't think you can assume they would automatically go back to the NDP.  Usually a party has to have a strong base in area to do well in election after election.  The NDP could gain seats in Ontario, but I don't see this as being their stronghold.  The 905 and suburban 416 will either go Liberal or Tory, but certainly not NDP.  Northern Ontario is largley NDP to begin with, while Central Ontario and most of Eastern Ontario is solidly Tory and with no manufacturing base or major universities in most ridings, not much potential there.  Likewise the Liberals have managed to stay in the lows 20s in Eastern Ontario so I am not so sure they will disappear quickly in that region even if they cannot translate this into seats.  In BC, the NDP won the majority of seats in both the 1974 and 1988 election and has won provincially on multiple occassions.  Likewise they usually get around 40% provincially meaning if they could get all those who vote NDP provincially to vote NDP federally, they could do quite well.  Maybe not win the majority of seats in the province, but at least win more than they have now.  In Saskatchewan, it is really the riding boundaries that kill them.  If they got rid of the mixed urban-rural ridings I think the NDP would win seats in Saskatchewan.  Rural Saskatchewan is solidly Tory, but Saskatoon and Regina are much more competitive, so although not strongholds, they are winneable.  Both Gary Doer and Roy Romanow got close to 50% in their respective provinces, so if the federal NDP could adopt similiar policies, I don't see why they could get similiar results.  The problem is the federal NDP is very different than their provincial counterparts in those provinces thus why they don't do as well.  By contrast in Ontario other than Bob Rae's one time win, there is no history of the NDP doing well and not much they can draw from.  While some would say the same about the Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois and Parti Quebecois have very similiar platforms to the NDP so at least there was the ideological similiarity, by contrast, Ontario has no similiar comparison.  Unless the Liberals and NDP merge, looking at the results and characteristics of the population, I think the best chance of the NDP winning in 2015 is if they can reduce the Tories to a minority, defeat them on the throne speech and then rely on the Liberals to prop them up.

I don't think it is so much that Southwestern Ontario is hostile to the NDP as more where would they get the additional votes from.  Unlike the BC Interior and Island where you have a lot crossover Tory-NDP voters there are relatively few in Ontario.  Many Lib-Tory switchers and NDP-Liberal switchers, but not too many NDP-Tory switchers.  In the 519 area code the Tories got above 50% in every riding save the two Kitchener ridings, Guelph, the three London ridings, the two Windsor ridings, Brant, and Essex.  In the case of Brant and Essex they came pretty close to 50% so the Liberals would have to crater and have over 90% transfer to the NDP to win this.  Although these have gone NDP in the past due to their strong manufacturing base, they also include a large rural section and the Tories dominate Rural Ontario pretty strongly.  In Guelph, it could NDP as the riding is centre-left but that assumes the Liberal vote swings en masse to the NDP.  If it doesn't swing much, it stays Liberal, if it partially swings you get a split vote and the Tories come up the middle.  In the Kitchener ridings, the Tories are vulnerable, but these are not exactly your NDP type ridings so if they do lose those seats it will be to the Liberals, not NDP.  London North Centre could go NDP but London West has a lot of business types living in the riding so although I could see the NDP getting as high as 30% here, Iwould be quite shocked if they actually won it.  The Liberals could as they are able to appeal to wealthy voters whereas the NDP cannot.  The remaining three ridings are already NDP held.  My point is the Tory vote is pretty solid and if it switches it would be to the Liberals, not the NDP or they would simply stay home.  And likewise I don't think the Liberals will completely disappear nor do I think all of them would go over to the NDP.  Maybe 2/3 would, but some would go over to the Tories and since the Tories have a much stronger base here, it would help them win seats.  Now I realize a lot can change in four years and if the NDP and Liberals merged, then they could win a whole whack of seats in Southwestern Ontario provided people were tired of the Tories.

There's no federal bellwether like Sarnia though, which has elected the winning party since the 1960s.  Not the same provincially however, as it was one of the few seats the Tories gained in the last provincial election.

I think if the NDP ever formed government, it would have to win seats like Sarnia. Not a wild thought, as the party has finished a strong second in the last two races.

  True it is a bellwether and I agree the NDP could conceivably win it, although it will be tough as the rural areas are pretty solidly Tory and even Sarnia like many of the industrial towns in Southern Ontario have swung to the right.  Since the party is more like the Reform than the PCs, it has a strong populist appeal thus the reason it does well in the industrial centres of Southern Ontario.  Also many of the blue collar workers are white males over 50 who tend to vote Conservative.   Also the Tories got over 50% in the last two elections and the previous Liberal incumbent Roger Gallaway was one of the more right wing Liberals thus they have a strong base to begin with.  It won't be until people get really tired of the Tories they will have any chance at chipping away at the Tories.  I would argue an NDP win would come through a Quebec-West axis much as Mulroney won in the 80s, not an Ontario-Quebec axies like the Liberals use to have.  BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are far more likely to go NDP than Ontario would.  Besides any NDP gains in the 519 area code would be offset by the 905 becoming a Tory stronghold and the 613 remaining a Tory stronghold.  The Tories are most ulnerable in the 905 and this could go Liberal but not NDP.  The 519 outside a few urban areas is pretty solidly Tory.

It's quite fun to read some of the Wikipedia articles on regional results. Some fun ones:

Montérégie

Every single seat changed party hands in three elections in the last thirty years.

Went 8-0 Liberal in 1979 and 1980, then went 8-0 and 9-0 PC in 1984 and 1988 respectively. It then went 8 Bloc/1 Liberal in 1993 and hovered around that amount through 2008. Then in 2011, it went 9-0 NDP.

Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville

Went 9-0 Liberal in 2006, then 7-2 Liberal in 2008, then 9-0 Conservative in 2011.

Both are suburbs so somewhat swing.  Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville are often known for backing the winner both provincially and federally.  In 1999, the PCs won all those ridings provincially, while in 2003 they all swung over to the Liberals.

I think that's visible minorities compared to non-visible minorities among immigrants. Even a "non-visible minority" is still not the majority!

I suspect the Conservatives probably won mostly amongst those who were immigrants from Europe and the Far East, while the NDP more amongst South Asians, Middle Easterners, Africa, Caribbean, and Latin America.  Also the Catholic number is interesting as most polls showed the Tories well ahead amongst them, mind you that might be in English Canada only where I am pretty sure they got well over 30% and beat the NDP by a sizeable margin.  Also immigrants would include those born in Germany, Netherlands, and UK and I suspect the Tories did well amongst those.  It also looks like they gained significantly amongst the Polish and Italian community, while the Greek community is difficult to tell, but the Portuguese community appears to have swung towards the NDP, although the Tories probably won much of those in the suburbs however.  As for the NDP and Tories being closer amongst those born in Canada, lets remember the highest percentage of this group is in Quebec where the NDP handidly beat the Tories and Atlantic Canada where the results pretty much matched the national numbers.  Generally visible minorities in most countries tend to favour parties on the left as opposed to the right.  In fact I would argue the Tories perform much better amongst visible minorities than their right wing counterparts in many other countries do.  No surprise the Tories got clobbered amongst Muslim voters or how well they did amongst Jewish voters although as recently as 2006 the numbers were the exact reverse amongst Jewish voters.  Probably explains why Thornhill swung so heavily in favour of them and why they picked up traditional Liberal strongholds like York Centre and Eglinton-Lawrence while came awfully close to winning Mount Royal.

That makes sense.  Although on the question of bailouts, what choice do they have.  Since they share the same currency, if they didn't bail them out this would cause the Euro to plunge.  The only option would be to withdraw from the Euro and reinstate the Deutsche Mark, however EU rules prohibit withdrawing from the Euro so the only way they could do this is to withdraw from the EU outright which I have a tough time believing many Germans favour this.  A referendum to withdraw from the EU might pass in Britain but not Germany.

I'm not an expert but I don't think the Eurozone prohibits leaving the Euro, there's just no provision to do so. Germany leaving the EU is of course impossible  even more so than Greece or Italy leaving the Eurozone, as the rapid adoption of the Euro after 1990 was at least in part an attempt to make Germany have firm roots in the European Community.

Actually the EU requires everyone save Denmark and Britain to join the Euro as they secured an opt out in the Maastrict Treaty and once a country joins it can never leave.  The Treaties and EU law have made clear that withdrawing from the Euro is not permitted.  One can however under the Lisbon Treaty withdraw from the EU outright under which case EU law has no force thus then withdrawing from the Euro.  Off course this would never happen realistically.  Likewise Denmark and Britain can stay out indefinitely, but once they join, they can never leave.  Likewise any future members who join must adopt the Euro.

That makes sense.  Although on the question of bailouts, what choice do they have.  Since they share the same currency, if they didn't bail them out this would cause the Euro to plunge.  The only option would be to withdraw from the Euro and reinstate the Deutsche Mark, however EU rules prohibit withdrawing from the Euro so the only way they could do this is to withdraw from the EU outright which I have a tough time believing many Germans favour this.  A referendum to withdraw from the EU might pass in Britain but not Germany.

And also your thing on opposite ideologies at the state vs. federal seems similiar to other countries.  Here in Ontario, usually the provincial party in power is of a different political stripe than the federal one.

Whats with the swing to the left in German politics?  Is it simply people like different parties in power at the state level than federal level as many of the CDU/CSU wins came when Schroeder was in power federally.  Is there also a backlash against the bailouts of countries like Greece, Portugal, and Ireland.  The only reason I ask is Germany is doing quite well economically and usually that tends to favour re-electing governments whereas when things are going poorly people tend to turf them.  And unlike in Britain, I don't believe the Merkel government has made any major spending cuts which would get people upset either.

Vancouver-Point Grey has always had a slight BC Liberal tilt, but they never won by huge margins, unlike in neighbouring Vancouver-Quilchena.  As for the federal Liberal vote, it tends to split pretty evenly between the BC Liberals and BC NDP as the BC Liberals are more conservative than their federal counterparts.  The NDP does well due to the university, but also the high number of rentals in the riding.  Kitsilano is actually a mix as the BC Liberals tend to win big amongst the homes along the waterfront, but the NDP does well in between 4th Avenue to 12th Avenue, where you have a lot of apartments and rental homes.

The recount confirmed the NDP win by 9 votes over the Conservative incumbent in the rural Quebec riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Riveire du loup-Kamouraska - so Tories now have 166 seats and the NDP 103

I wonder who they will bring into cabinet now with only 5 seats in Quebec.  I have a feeling we will see Maxime Bernier return to cabinet after the drubbing they got in Quebec.

Also, a elector asked a recount in Winnipeg-North.

Lamoureux, a Liberal, won it by only 45 votes over the NDP.

I doubt it will change, but if the NDP wins the recount there, that means the Liberals were shut out of two provinces and only won one seat in another two.

How did Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke Centre go?  Considering how poorly the Tories did in Quebec, I suspect if Bernard Genereux won he would get a cabinet post.  With a 9 vote difference, I wonder if they can ask for another recount or what happens next.

I don't know much about Indian politics, but all I can say is good.  Is the replacement on the right or left?  If India wants to become the next superpower they need governments who are pro-growth and pro-free market with some regulations to regulate its excesses.  Here in Canada, I believe the Tories made strong gains amongst the South Asian community, especially the Hindus whereas the NDP more amongst the Sikhs and Muslims.  Considering how many East Indians in Canada go for centre-right parties at various levels of government, I am assuming there is probably a fairly sizeable centre-right contingent, mind you immigrant communities aren't always representative of the demographics in their home country.

A beautiful quote from my idiot MP:

GalipeauOrleans Royal Galipeau   
       
    100 volunteers out there today! «Le ciel est bleu; l'enfer est rouge.» Look at those beautiful blue signs. #elxn41 #orleans

Thanks, Royal, I'll make sure to die in hell.

To be fair, he didn't make up that phrase, it's a quote from Maurice Duplessis, IIRC. It's probably not wise to quote a premier remembered as one of the most corrupt in Canadian history, but making an historical reference is, at least, a bit less sinister than randomly saying something like that.

I know he didn't make it up, it is a catchphrase of the reactionary theocratic era in Quebec in the 1800s and was the clergy's non-committal way of saying to don't vote Liberal.

    A dumb quote to make, but it is true that the Catholic Church did often say that when endosing the Union Nationale.  In fact prior to 1960, Quebec was arguably one of the most conservative provinces whereas today it is one of the most left leaning.  By the same token the strength of the Catholic church may have also contributed to Quebec's more leftist political culture.  Rugged indivdualism never really took off in Quebec like it did in English Canada, so essentially the government and unions replaced the Catholic church in terms of roles.

It also doesn't hurt that she's pretty hot.

Helena Guergis was pretty hot, yet she lost, so although it might help it doesn't guarantee a win.  Mind you Simcoe-Grey is a pretty staunchly conservative riding to begin with.  In fact it includes much of Simcoe Centre which was the only riding to vote for the Reform Party in 1993, so as long as the right is united they are pretty much assured to win this riding.

Probably need to start a new thread when they come out.  I'll try to do the results by municipality and county.  I suspect Western Canada, Southern Ontario, and New Brunswick will be quite blue even more so than last time around.  Quebec will have a lot more orange and it will be interesting to see in the close races if the Bloc Quebecois still won several polls or if they were annihiliated throughout the province as it seems their support was fairly evenly distributed.  Asides from Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI, I don't think there will be much red.  It will be also interesting to see Toronto and compare it to the mayor's race last Fall.  It seems the Tories did well in the same areas Rob Ford did, while the NDP won in the areas that mostly went for George Smithermann.

Anybody know when they will have the poll by poll breakdown.  It will be interesting to see this and also start making the maps like we did for the 2008 election.