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601  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: August 10, 2011, 12:19:23 am
In Quebec, the wealthy Anglos have long gone Liberal whereas in Toronto it depends.  It is true during the 90s, many of the wealthy WASP areas in Toronto voted Liberal, but those same areas voted for Mike Harris provincially and Mulroney in the 80s, whereas asides from perhaps Mulroney in the 80s, I don't think the wealthy Anglo areas in Montreal ever went Tory and even then I still think the Liberals won there.
602  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 11:09:24 pm
The NDP did win Tecumseh, although not by a whole lot, so I suspect imcumbency probably had some impact in Essex County as the demographics of Tecumseh I don't think are all that much more favourable to the NDP than some of the other Essex municipalities.  Windsor off course went NDP in a landslide, in fact using the present municipalities, I believe it was the only municipality in Southern Ontario where they cracked the 50% mark.  The Liberals on the other hand using the current municipalities failed to crack the 40% mark in any if I am not mistaken, although I have to double check.
603  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 10:30:39 pm
In the Lower Mainland, the Liberals won two municipalities (University Endowment Lands and Bowen Island).  Bowen Island despite its rural nature is rather left leaning.  Sort of like Bainbridge Island is to Seattle in some ways.  The NDP won Vancouver, Burnaby, and New Westminster, while every other municipality went Conservative in the GVRD.
604  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 10:28:11 pm
Ah, but why assume that everyone in a given place has a similar set of views and values? Especially in a place like that.
  If you are referring to Whistler, I used to have a cabin there as a kid.  I am originally from British Columbia, so I do have some idea of the demographics there, mind you there are lot of weekend only residents as well as you have many seasonal residents who only live there part of the year rather than year round, thus the time of year the election is held might have some impact too.
605  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 10:26:35 pm
I will do a map later, but for Nova Scotia, the Liberals won all four Cape Breton Island counties, but asides from that, they only won Hants County, while the NDP only won Halifax County.  The Tories took all the remaining counties on Mainland Nova Scotia, although they only cracked the 50% mark in Pictou County and Cumberland County (albeit if you round off they also got over 50% in Yarmouth County).  Each party seems to have its turf, otherwise Liberals in Cape Breton Island, Tories in Rural Mainland Nova Scotia, and NDP in the Metro Halifax area.
606  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 10:23:56 pm
The Liberals won the municipality of Whistler in British Columbia but with only 27%.  It was a four way split, Lib 27%, NDP 26%, Con 26%, and GRN 17%.  I know in the US most ski resorts vote Democrat even if in solidly Republican states such as Jackson in Wyoming or Sun Valley in Idaho.  At the same time most residents are quite wealthy and liberal thus the dilemma which is why I think you got the four way split you did.  They like the NDP's progressive social policies, but don't like the idea of higher taxes for the rich, while they may like the Conservative tax cuts, but find many of their social policies quite regressive. 
607  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 10:21:15 pm
I wonder if the NDP might have won over a few towns in Essex given how much their vote increased in that riding?

Haven't got to Tecumseh and Windsor yet, but in terms of the ridings in Essex, no the Tories won every single municipality.  While in Kingsville they got over 50%, all the others were between 45-50%.  In fact the NDP and Tory support was fairly evenly distributed in Essex.  It is however likely the NDP won some of the "towns" but not any of the municipalities when you consider each municipality is a mixture of towns and countryside and the Tories tend to win pretty big in the countryside and towns under 500.
608  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 09:40:56 pm
The NDP would have won Westmount-Ville Marie if you took only election day polls, which might explain why Marc Garneau conceded defeat on election night only to retract it later as usually the advanced polls are the last to come in.  Also it was Westmount that saved him as the NDP came in third in Westmount behind the Tories.  I should note on the Island of Montreal, the Liberals came in third in the old city of Montreal prior to amalgamation but second when you include the amalgamated cities.  The NDP off course won both Montreal pre and post amalgamation.  Also in Southern Ontario, the NDP won Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne (although the Tories took the St. Catharines portion of Welland in addition to Wainfleet).  It seems in those three cities the NDP won most of the polls in the built up areas while the Tories in the rural sections.  Is it due to the heavy unionization why those three cities are more NDP than the rest of the Niagara region.  And how come St. Catharines goes Tory or Liberal in the past, but never NDP? 
609  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 08, 2011, 12:45:34 am
The Liberals did win Deep River as well.  One of the few municipalities they won.  In fact the Tories got over 50% in the vast majority of municipalities despite averaging 44% province wide.  This time around they also did crack the 70% mark in a few, but not many, but none over 75% so far.  As for the NDP, I think they got over 60% in some in Northern Ontario, but none in Southern Ontario.
610  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 07, 2011, 11:14:27 pm
Okay here is New Brunswick by county.  I made three maps here.  The first is strictly by winner.  Restigouche County and Westmoreland County were three way races which the Tories won but only in the low 30s



This is by percentage.  The Liberals were in the 30s in Kent County, NDP in 60s in Gloucester County, Tories in 30s in Restigouche County and Westmoreland County, 40s in York County, Madawaska County and Saint John County (all above 47% I should add), 68% in Carleton County, while in the 50s in all other counties



Here is New Brunswick US style with the red counties being Tories over 50% and the blue being Tories under 50%

611  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 07, 2011, 10:50:02 pm
Scarborough went Liberal while the NDP won East York, although both were three way races.  So far of the municipalities I have done, Guelph, Kingston, Casselman, and North Bay are the only Liberal wins.  Of the former municipalities of Ottawa, the NDP won Ottawa and Vanier, Liberals Rockcliffe Park, while the Tories won every other one, although they only got over 50% (actually 60% in all these too) in Goulbourn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton i.e. the largely rural municipalities.  In the former municipality of Hamilton, the NDP won Hamilton, while the Tories got a plurality in Stoney Creek and Dundas and a majority in Ancaster, Glanbrook, and Flamborough.  Actually so far, the Tories have gotten above 40% in almost every municipality outside of Toronto, with only Casselman, Kingston (Frontenac Islands if you don't round up), and Hamilton.  I haven't yet gotten to Windsor which I am sure the NDP won by a fairly sizeable margin. 
612  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 07, 2011, 10:45:34 pm
the NDP is against relaxing liquour rules? This is quite disappointing, but also the first I heard of it.
  Unfortunately yes.  At least you can go across the river and pick up a six pack or a bottle of wine at any depanneur or even Costco has go prices and selection.  Unfortunately here in Toronto we are stuck with the Beer Store and LCBO. 
613  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 07, 2011, 07:26:51 pm
In some ways Quebec strikes me as more European than North American in many of their attitudes.  It is true on immigration and multiculturalism they are certainly more conservative than English Canada in terms of more Quebecers favour assimilation than elsewhere and they are more likely to favour lower levels of immigration.  There are also other issues where they are more to the right depending on how you look at it.  Quebecers are more likely to support free trade and tend to be more supportive of laxer foreign ownership rules (asides from culture) than English Canadians.  Mind you do the language and cultural differences, they are probably less worried about Americanization than English Canadians where the differences are much smaller.  On health care, Quebecers don't seem to object to a parallel private system as strongly as English Canadians.  After all, there are many private clinics where one can pay for faster service in Quebec, some in BC and even fewer in Alberta, while practically none in Ontario.  In most European countries you have a parallel private health system.  Although this is less of right vs. left, they tend to have far laxer alcohol laws.  In Quebec you can buy beer and wine in grocery stores unlike most provinces in English Canada.  Some may say this is more left leaning, but I should note the NDP in most English Canadian provinces tend to be the strongest opponents of allowing alcohol sales in grocery stores, gas stations, and convenience stores, although I suspect much of that has to do with the fact they don't want to undermine the unions at the government run liquor stores.  The point is the differences between Quebec and English Canada are not totaly a simple left vs. right, although on some issues such as the environment, attitude towards public sector unions, military intervention overseas, abortion and same sex marriage, Quebecers are definitely more left leaning.
614  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 07, 2011, 01:21:03 pm
Still working on the maps, but a few interesting things I have found in some ridings.  In Richmond-Arthabaska, the Tories won Asbestos so I wonder if their controversial position of supporting exports of asbestos and not ratifying the Rotterdam Convention helped in this town, although I believe the Conservative candidate who is the brother of former MP Andre Bachand also came from this town.  In Saint-Maurice-Champlain, the NDP won Herouxville, despite the fact their immigration and multicultural policies are about as far away as you can get from the town's position.  This was the infamous town for its policies on immigrants despite having none.  Also had election day polls only been used and there had been no advanced polls, the NDP would have won Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar meaning PEI would be the only province they would have been shut out of.
615  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Layton temporarily stepping down on: August 02, 2011, 10:46:51 pm
I think being a former separtist is not that toxic in Quebec, but in English Canada it is and while this might help solidify the NDP in Quebec, they have to pick up a whole wack of seats in English Canada if they want to form government.  The problem is few English Canadians understand Quebec nationalism very well and many in English Canada see it as a black/white issue, whereas many in Quebec see it more in shades of gray, otherwise they aren't for remaining in Canada at all costs, but nor do they favour separtism either under all scenarios.  Also I think the fact it was very recent is another issue.  If it was 20 or 30 years ago, then it would be less of an issue.  While it is true many on the left voted BQ because they supported their social democratic policies, not separtism, this isn't widely understood in English Canada.  This is why the coalition attempt in 2008 was quite popular in Quebec, but very unpopular in English Canada as many in Quebec saw it is a three centre-left parties working together while many in English Canada saw it as a sellout to the separtists. 
616  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 02, 2011, 10:05:15 pm
Great job on the maps.  One quick question.  Did any party win every poll in any riding and which ones.  I know the Tories won every poll last time around in Durham and Carleton-Mississippi Mills, but it looks like not in those ridings this time around, but that they swept other ones.  This is for Ontario only.
617  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: August 01, 2011, 07:17:11 pm
I am now finished the Os so still have the Ps to Zs.  I can confirm the NDP won the old city of Ottawa pre-amalgmation although much like the 416 and Vancouver proper it was a tight three way race.  The Tories off course took Ottawa as a whole when you include the amalgamated areas.  Hamilton though still went NDP even after amalgmation although a lot closer whereas in the old city they won by 20 points while the Tories won by 25 points in the amalgmated parts of Hamilton.  In some ways it is like many counties in the US where the city proper goes Democrat but the suburban sections go Republican or at least are more evenly split rather than heavily tilted towards the Democrats.  Alleghney County, Wayne County, Cuyahoga County, Cook County, Milwaukee County, Hennepin County, Los Angeles County, San Diego County, and King County all follow this to some degree although Obama did win the suburban sections in many of those, but they were a lot closer and many of those will go Republican win they win nationally.
618  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: July 31, 2011, 04:35:18 am
Don't forget the Libertarians.

or the PCP and UP for that matter

Although Libertarians are on the right, the US also has them, so I will just factor them out although I don't think they got enough votes to really impact any area.  As for PC Party and United Party, they are more centrist than right wing.  The PC Party is really the Red Tory wing from the old Progressive Conservatives who would be on the same spot if not slightly to the left of the federal Liberals and in the US definitely more in line with the Democrats than Republicans.  Although, it is quite possible than many who voted PC Party did so by mistake and actually intended to vote Conservatives.  I guess I can add those three although I doubt it will change much considering how few votes they got.
619  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: July 31, 2011, 12:31:54 am
I am currently working on getting the data ready and will start making the maps after.  I have currently done all the ridings up to letter G and hope to have them done over the next few weeks.  Then I will start publishing some of the maps for municipalities and counties.  I will also for the fun of it do a red state vs. blue state style one with red for counties and municipalities where the Cons + CHP + independent Conservative candidates (James Ford, Helena Guergis, and Andre Arthur) exceeded 50% and blue for everything else.
620  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Layton temporarily stepping down on: July 25, 2011, 07:12:07 pm
Hope he has a speedy recovery and returns to the job.  I know he is a real fighter and can make it through this.
621  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: July 24, 2011, 08:06:38 pm
Now that I am back from My European trip, I can also help out on any requests.

My request: everything. Well, basically municipalities. I'd also like to see Ottawa broken down by ward (and perhaps other cities).
  Don't worry I will work these.  It may take some time, but I will get the maps out again.  I am usually outdoors more in the summer months so it may be a bit slow, but once the colder weather arrives, I can finish whatever is left.
622  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: July 24, 2011, 12:11:42 pm
Fredericton poll-by-poll results Google-Maps-ified:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/freddy-test.html

1 down, 307 to go. Smiley

What about the rest of the riding?  Or did the Tories win every poll outside Fredericton?
623  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Election Results Thread on: July 24, 2011, 12:10:48 pm
Now that I am back from My European trip, I can also help out on any requests.
624  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: July 22, 2011, 12:42:56 pm
  I find these maps not very clear, so we should still work on our separate ones especially in the mixed urban-rural ridings where you can barely see the urban parts
625  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Canadian election maps on: July 22, 2011, 12:10:14 pm
Also wonder why the Liberals did so well amongst university students?  Guelph and Kingston both went Liberal, the few Liberal polls in London were near UWO and it looks like in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale the only Liberal polls were around McMaster.  I would have thought that students are more likely to go NDP than Liberal especially considering the NDP had a better chance of defeating the Tories than the Liberals.  Any ideas on why this happened?  Did the Liberal education passport have any impact?
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