I know this is un-Opebo/BRTDish but this time next week I'm getting married!  Some of my "partying" people I'm close to thought I was nuts.  Many do not.  When I first came on here I never thought it would happen.  I was posting on here 10-15 times a day, half of them drunk, most times venting about some woman in a negative way.  I was an immature 24 year old sh**t.  I think people are thinking why I haven't been on here as much.  It's because I've been so busy with a lot in my life.  And that's a good thing!  Being on here in small doses is a good thing.  Sharing too much can be a bad thing, which I know I'm guilty of as many others are.   

Well, this is my last post till after my honeymoon.  Pictures on FB will be there when I get back.  Just want to say to all on here- Thanks for being a great sounding board!   

3

Sounds like a perfect match.  Two talkers could be death.  My advice- Take charge!  No really that's it.

Toomey is seemingly better than Santorum in knowing what to say and not to and sounding like a leader.  While I agree with him on little, I have to admit I'm impressed.  Thing is he looks so good because of the rest of the Teanutters in the House and Senate.  That's scary!

[Philadelphia County]

Philadelphia Metro Area.  I'll do Philly for now only, then PA suburbs:

Philadelphia County:  We all know, 85-15 Obama, but I'd have to cut it down to bite sized pieces

South Philadelphia (Southwest Philadelphia to a point as well)- Mix of old school ethnic whites and young professionals.  Ethnic whites are a tossup.  Economically populist, pro union, but VERY socially conservative in some cases and outright racist.  Ethnic whites are generally very traditional in their ways.  Some division results could mirror midstate Pennsylvania in GOP voting.  Some areas have African Americans and South Asian immigrants.  Those areas are obviously liberal.  The young professionals are generally socially liberal and economically moderate to liberal.  Not as passionate about unions as ethnic whites.

Center City Philadelphia- Very socially liberal, economically liberal to moderate with some libertarians.  More Dem than city as whole.

Northwest Philadelphia (Roxbourough/Manayunk/Chestnut Hill)- Liberal, but not as much as Center City.  Chestnut Hill is very wealthy, but liberal.  Mount Airy is mixed race, well off and pretty liberal.  Manayunk has a lot of young professionals/college students and generally socially liberal, economically moderate to liberal.  There is a mix of populist old school ethnic whites here, especially in Roxbourough, but not as prevalent as Northeast or South Philly.  Less Democratic than city as whole, but more than NE/South Philly and a lot more than nationally.

North Philadelphia- Overwhelmingly African American and Hispanic.  Very disadvantaged and Democratic.  However, both African Americans and Hispanics are religious.  Most Democratic part of the city.  Definitely brings Dem margins up in state of PA and more Dem than city as whole.

Northeast Philadelphia-  I'd have to divide it in 3 parts.  The lower Northeast (except the "river Wards") is generally an area with older ethnic whites with minorities moving in fast.  Most whites in this area are very old with fixed incomes unable to move, but want to.  Most newcomers are Hispanic, but Asians and Middle Easterners are also coming in.  Strongly leans Democratic.  The "River Wards" are similar to Manayunk in that there's a lot of ethnic whites but some young professionals are moving in especially in Fishtown.  Leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so.  The "Far Northeast" generally has ethnic Catholic and Jewish whites and not as old as the lower Northeast.  Generally working to middle class with some wealthy pockets.  Leans Democratic, generally economically populist and socially moderate as a whole, but some areas can be quite conservative and religious though not as much as South Philly.  Jews are generally Reform, but there are pockets of Orthodox conservatives.  Overall, less Democratic than city as whole, but moreso than the national average.     

About 900 when I went dropped to about 600 when it closed.

I think I'm a happy drunk, but my fiancee thinks I have a problem.  She's also a Nurse Practitioner and knows my poor liver function tests (AST/ALT).  I merely grabbed a Manhattan after drinking a bottle of Pinot Noir with her and she lost her sh**t with me.

Switch to pot dude.

I can get pretty sick with pot.  I've also been more of a drinker and my LFTs aren't horrendous.  I think the LFTs are more a function of me being on Crestor if anything.

I think I'm a happy drunk, but my fiancee thinks I have a problem.  She's also a Nurse Practitioner and knows my poor liver function tests (AST/ALT).  I merely grabbed a Manhattan after drinking a bottle of Pinot Noir with her and she lost her sh**t with me.

State Representative Mark Cohen is now in so Boyle isn't the only Philly candidate. He's going to be a real wildcard as his brand is more Montco (hurting Leach, Arkoosh and maybe Margolies) but he's been a State Representative in the NE since 1974 and has a base.

The city machine and labor will be with Boyle but Cohen will peel some of that away.

This is gonna be a sh**t show.  I just know it.  Then again the seat is now soooo Democratic the primary will determine the winner.  You will basically need a William Jefferson hiding money in the freezer for the GOP to take this seat.  That's probably why so many Dems feel emboldened to run.

[Tauben berger!]

Cohen- Another guy I like personally.  Leach still strikes me better for some reason. Cohen would definitely help Boyle if he ran in that Boyle might only need to eke out 30% and win.  Leach would definitely come on top of the progressives, but a sharp vote split is likely. Are we looking at 2000 PA Senate Race v 2.0 here? 

Million dollar question is who would be GOP nominee be?

Tauben
       berger!

Definitely don't want to take away from Brendan Boyle here especially on Sandusky, gun control and labor which are areas where he's awesome on.  I know he has a ton of future potential, but let's just say this was not the right office for him nor Schwartz running for Gov. 

And it should be noted that Leach will do well in certain areas of the NE. Losing areas like mine to PA 1 really hurts Boyle.

Losing the river Wards to Brady hurts Boyle BADLY hence my prediction.  We'd be talking a much closer race, possibly a 50-50 split with Holmesburg, Tacony, Bridesburg, and Port Richmond in the district.  Fox Chase, Mayfair, and the heavily Catholic parts of Somerton will be Boyle's strenghts.  Elsewhere not so much.

Schwartz stated that she doesn't intend to make an endorsement here.

I would find it as hard as her to make one as well!   Basically for me it's let's hear them out.  As hard as it would be to go against Brendan Boyle personally, I have some disagreements with him on policies I agree with Daylin Leach on.  Choice and marijuana legalization are 2 issues I'm not going to look the other way on.  That said it would not behoove Brendan to agree with those positions looking at his potential base of support.  In the end I think it will come down to Leach vs. Boyle with Arkoosh being the last liberal holdout ultimately backing Leach results Leach 64- Boyle 36.  Boyle will win Fox Chase, Mayfair, and blocks near parishes easily, but it won't be enough to overcome Leach's national support (NY + MA + CA + IL $$$$) and the rest of the district which is generally secular.  The airwaves will decimate Boyle.

I'm hearing Arkoosh might actually be legit. She supposedly has Schwartz's support, a great reputation as an activist and a ton of money.

In which I could see a split liberal base with Boyle picking up the union and Reagan Dems similar to the 2000 PA Dem Senate primary.

I don't think Saidel runs. Anyway, I meant to mention this earlier: Leach will be very close to or almost any identical twin of Alan Grayson. BRTD would love him.

Do you think Leach will be as abrasive as Grayson?  Boyle looks better on personal creds, but Planned Parenthood and NARAL might have issues espeically considering it's Schwartz's successor.  While PA 13 has some similarities to MA 9 and IL 3 (The NE Philly part), it isn't quite that socially conservative.  If I somehow end up back in the 13th, this will definitely be a nose holder vote for me in 2014.  Question is do I vote for someone I know personally better or how they'll potentially vote in Congress?  IMO, Leach is awesome on social issues while Boyle will have to suck up to Reagan Democrats even in the primary.

Thread now 8 years, 10 months old!  Where did the time go?

We're back!

I might not be in the district anymore - my street is actually the border between PA 1, 8 and 13 and I'm pretty sure Flyers isn't in the 13th either! - but that doesn't mean I won't be commenting on what will be, at the very least, a very interesting Democratic primary.

Montco State Senator and liberal firebrand Daylin Leach is the first to officially declare. He released a campaign video today.

http://www.politicspa.com/leach-announces-pa-13-democratic-primary-kicks-off/47127/

He's playing up his NE Philly roots (something I was unaware of), knowing Philly State Representative Brendan Boyle will be one of his opponents. Boyle announced the hiring of two former DCCC staffers today.

The only other two individuals that have taken steps towards running are former Philadelphia City Controller/very well known local Dem cheerleader Jonathan Saidel and physician Valerie Arkoosh. They both filed with the FEC. I'm not sure about Arkoosh but I don't think Saidel will pull the trigger. There's buzz that State Senator LeAnna Washington might run but I'm not buying it at all.

The new 13th's Dems are pretty evenly split between the two counties but I believe NE Philly has the slight advantage. Stay tuned because this is going to be a fun one.

I'm not in the 13th anymore.  Now in the 2nd, moving to either the 6th, 7th or possibly even the Montco portion of the 13th again after I get married.  District lines for where we're looking are just that fuzzy. 

Anyway, this is a tough one for me.  Actually with Leach, Saidel and Boyle VERY tough for me.  Thankfully I probably don't have to vote in this!  I like things about all 3.  I don't want to make abortion rights an eliminator, but it may very well be the straw that breaks the camels back in this case.

This is part of the GOP's grand agenda of privatizing public schools for profit.  Dr. Hite is full of it.  He's a showman who fattens his and some admins wallets at the expense of teachers and students.  Many charter school heads are buying lavish mansions in Florida at taxpayers' expense.  This is not about "running things more efficiently."  It's about enriching campaign donors!

By law the charters must be nonprofit.

Some of these "managment" companies and consultants are publically traded for profits.  Check again!

This is part of the GOP's grand agenda of privatizing public schools for profit.  Dr. Hite is full of it.  He's a showman who fattens his and some admins wallets at the expense of teachers and students.  Many charter school heads are buying lavish mansions in Florida at taxpayers' expense.  This is not about "running things more efficiently."  It's about enriching campaign donors!

IMO, it would be foolish for Stack or Schwartz to run.  Schwartz should wait till 2016 to challenge Toomey.  I'd rather go with McCord.

Surprise!  The one thing I favor of Corbett's!  You can buy beer and wine at certain Wegmans stores now.  Another non-union store I love over our unionized ones I used to shop at (Acme and SuperFresh/Pathmark) which now suck horribly.  What have I become?  Prices are soooo much better at Wegmans as well.  Anti-union people stop salivating.  My opinions with Ac-a-me is poor managment and store design, not UFCW.

My federal income tax percentage is still higher than Mitt Romney's. Great job capitulating on the fiscal cliff, you stupid Democrats.

I would conclude mine is as well. I haven't finished all the details, but I had to do enough to fill out FAFSA for two kids this year. The impact of my wife taking on extra contract work to pay for the college generates a lot of tax. Right now it looks like I'll pay just under 17% of my adjusted gross income as tax. Almost a quarter of that is self-employment tax.

SE taxes are a highly regressive bitch aren't they?

He's moving to Kenya!

My grandfather said he paid no income taxes on the $95,000 income he received last year. I'm not entirely sure how he managed that.

Mostly capital gains and other income tax free retirement payments?

Good to see you've sobered up since your last post, you shameless attention whore.

Could also be tax free municipal bond interest.  I once had a client when I worked at a CPA firm with $350,000 in that alone!

It largely depends on the TYPE of Republican.  If you can find one who can get the votes of Philadelphia suburban SUV moms, Office Park Dads AND blue collar whites in SW/NE Pennsylvania and Northeast/South Philly, the GOP will win PA.  Then again if they get that they'd win nationally.  

One thing I learned over the past 5 years if you pick the old war hero, populist Republican like McCain, you'd do better in blue collar areas but piss off suburban voters (think Palin might have hurt here as well).  You pick the Yankee Preppy Business-type Republican you'll do better in Montgomery and Bucks but anger places like Fishtown in Philly and Scranton.  Look the the Ward/Division results in the 5 county area.  The more blue collar white divisions McCain/Palin did well, but Romney lost many of them.  In 2012, it was reversed where some of the 2008 Obama divisions in Montgomery. Chester and Bucks flipped back.  

Conclusion:  The GOP is on a slippery slope here.  Go for one group, you alienate another!